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Speaker 1: The Volume. The Colin Cowherd Podcast brought to you by

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Speaker 1: Fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on

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Speaker 1: Fan Duel. Whether you love basketball, golf, soccer, or any

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Speaker 1: fantasy sport, there is a contest for every fan Fan

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Speaker 1: Duel more ways to win. Hi, everybody, Welcome to the

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Speaker 1: Friday Morning podcast to Colin Coward Podcast. So Chad Millman,

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Speaker 1: We'll be joining us in about seven to eight minutes.

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Speaker 1: As you know, as is customary on our Friday podcast,

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Speaker 1: time for fake questions, real answers. Things I want to

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Speaker 1: talk about but don't want to wait for you to

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Speaker 1: ask me the questions. Dear Colin, have you been listening

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Speaker 1: to the fantastic Jay Boys show? Well, yeah, I hired him.

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Speaker 1: It's on the Volume podcast network, home to a roster

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Speaker 1: of excellent thought provoking shows, and boy, what a terrific

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Speaker 1: edition it has been. Thank you for noticing. Anyway, the

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Speaker 1: other day, Jay Boys said the LSU head coaching job

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Speaker 1: is better than the usc head coaching job. In fact,

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Speaker 1: go ahead and play the clip. LSU is a better

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Speaker 1: job for the most competitive coaches than USC is. I'm

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Speaker 1: not talking about going out and drinking a mimosa on

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Speaker 1: Venice Beach. I'm talking about knowing if you're the best

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Speaker 1: coach going against the best coaches in the league, with

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Speaker 1: the best players in the most fertile recruiting ground, in

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Speaker 1: the craziest recruiting wars. So, Colin, do you agree with

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Speaker 1: Jay Boy? Actually I do. LSU and Baton Rouge is

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Speaker 1: much more defined by college football than USC is in

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Speaker 1: Southern California. Part of being great. I mean, think about this,

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Speaker 1: The state of Alabama has two of the top twenty

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Speaker 1: programs in the country. I mean, there's million of people

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Speaker 1: in the state. How is that possible? Because they deeply

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Speaker 1: care about winning. It changes their self esteem. LSU needs

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Speaker 1: and feels it's necessary to be defined by success in football.

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Speaker 1: USC is a better university and a distracted market, and

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Speaker 1: they don't view it that way. They want to win,

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Speaker 1: and when they get the right coach, they usually win big.

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Speaker 1: But part of a great college football job is a

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Speaker 1: community that has to win to feel good about themselves.

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Speaker 1: That is much more LSU than USC. Dear Colin, if

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Speaker 1: you were Urban Meyer and wanted to keep your job

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Speaker 1: with the Jags, what would you say to the team

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Speaker 1: and the owner right now? Well, I always think the

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Speaker 1: answer in crisis is always the same. Everybody is willing

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Speaker 1: to give people second chances. What you can't do is

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Speaker 1: bs them. Athletes will understand it. They've made mistakes. Too.

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Speaker 1: Many have come from tough upbringings, right, they have not

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Speaker 1: lived perfectly linear lives. When you stand in front of

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Speaker 1: athletes and can be authentically vulnerable, admit mistakes, it goes

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Speaker 1: a long way. They're not going to judge you. They're athletes.

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Speaker 1: Michael Jordan shot fifty percent. Brady throws twelve picks a year.

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Speaker 1: Athletes are playing in an imperfect business. Don't be essom,

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Speaker 1: Come straight, Come clean. It'll buy you credibility in a

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Speaker 1: room of fifty five alpha males. Just be straight. Jar

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Speaker 1: Colin is at me or to people make too big

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Speaker 1: of a deal about the importance of having the Yankees

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Speaker 1: in the baseball playoffs. Great question, and yes the Yankees

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Speaker 1: are important, but the New York Yankees brand, beaten up

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Speaker 1: a little, is not as valuable, quite as valuable today

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Speaker 1: as ten years ago. They had a long two decade

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Speaker 1: run of success. The other thing that helps baseball is

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Speaker 1: Los Angeles is the second biggest market in the country,

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Speaker 1: and the Dodgers now have to be considered favorites for

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Speaker 1: the World Series. You will engage the La market. The

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Speaker 1: White Socks are in the playoffs. That's the third biggest city.

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Speaker 1: You will engage the Chicago market. The Red Sox are

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs with a rabid sports fan base. That's

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Speaker 1: a top ten market. So if you're not going to

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Speaker 1: have the Yankees, the fact that you have La, Chicago, Boston,

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Speaker 1: and by the way, Houston is one of the ten

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Speaker 1: largest cities in America and has a growing brand in baseball,

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Speaker 1: it would be better with the Yankees. It will, however,

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Speaker 1: survive without them. Dear Colin Kyrie, irving, what's up with

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Speaker 1: that guy? First of all, I love succinct questions excellent.

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Speaker 1: First of all, he's a flat earther conspiracy theorist. I

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Speaker 1: had lunched the other day with a friend of mine

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Speaker 1: and I said, you could spend a weekend and have

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Speaker 1: the greatest time with a guy. You guys go whitewater rafting.

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Speaker 1: You know, you just have a great time. You go fishing.

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Speaker 1: And on the ride home, if he said, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think the world is flat, you'd be like check plays.

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Speaker 1: There are certain things you can't say among rational people.

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Speaker 1: The other thing to remember is that all conspiracy theorists

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Speaker 1: share certain qualities Ego. They think they're smarter than they are.

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Speaker 1: They feel they've been victimized or shunned, and there should

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Speaker 1: be a greater perception of their brilliance. Anti vaccine people,

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Speaker 1: Earth is flat people. They want you to think they

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Speaker 1: have information and insight you don't have. Well, Kyrie's got

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Speaker 1: an ego in between the Brad Stevens mess, between the

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Speaker 1: Lebron situation. Kyrie is always felt that people do not

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Speaker 1: understand his greatness. He is a walking talking Reddit board.

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Speaker 1: He wants attention like all conspiracy theorists. Man woman doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: Young old conspiracy theorists pay attention to me. I have

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Speaker 1: information you don't. All right, everybody. I had a good

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Speaker 1: week last week. As Chad and I discuss eight games,

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Speaker 1: I pick five. I was six and two last week.

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Speaker 1: I felt pretty good about that. I should have stayed

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Speaker 1: away from the Dolphins colts. I was warned I screwed

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Speaker 1: up Chad Millman, Chief content Officer, Action Network. So I

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Speaker 1: felt really good last week. I told you I felt

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Speaker 1: really good. I went Berminuda triangle hunting on the dolphins

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Speaker 1: and whift. So that's life you learn. So I want

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Speaker 1: to start this week. I know I'm going to be

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Speaker 1: viewed as a square, but I'm gonna give you rational

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Speaker 1: in a game. I like a lot. I like Carolina

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Speaker 1: minus three and a half. And here's why. I think

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Speaker 1: the acquisition of Stefan Gilmore adds incredible juice to the

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Speaker 1: locker room. Matt rule in the organization is telling the

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Speaker 1: locker room this is a playoff team. We're not messing around.

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Speaker 1: We believe in this. We believe in this young team. Secondly,

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Speaker 1: Eagles have to go on the road second straight weekend.

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Speaker 1: The Panthers defense, which I believe is a top ten defense,

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Speaker 1: was really a bit embarrassed by Dallas. I mean that

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Speaker 1: game was not nearly as close as to score. I

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Speaker 1: think their defense rebounds McCaffrey may play. I know the

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Speaker 1: hook tells me to take the Eagles, but the hook

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Speaker 1: told me to take the Panthers last week, and I

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Speaker 1: took the Cowboys hard. I like Carolina at home to

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Speaker 1: rebound a confident locker room and beat the Eagles by

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Speaker 1: a closer to a touchdown. I'm a square, right. This

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Speaker 1: is an interesting game. I've had a lot of conversations

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Speaker 1: with professional betters about this game, because my first instinct was,

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Speaker 1: like yours, I'm taking the Panthers like one hundred percent.

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Speaker 1: I've been on this team from the beginning. I think

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Speaker 1: they're better than what they played against the Cowboys, and

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Speaker 1: I feel like the Eagles showed some vulnerability, especially in

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Speaker 1: areas we thought they were incredibly strong, which was the

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Speaker 1: offensive and defensive line. Fletcher Cox, by the way, maybe

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Speaker 1: it's schemes, maybe it's age. Fletcher Cox is not the

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Speaker 1: same player he was last year in the year before,

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Speaker 1: so that just needs to be stated. He's not the

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Speaker 1: same player. Something's going on. So to me, this really

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Speaker 1: becomes it really is about who do you believe in?

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Speaker 1: Do you believe in the Eagles and that they're the

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Speaker 1: team that performed really well in Week one? Are they

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Speaker 1: the team that performed a little bit better against the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: or do you believe the Panthers are better than the

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Speaker 1: team that lost to the Cowboys in their very first

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Speaker 1: game against a team that could really challenge them, that

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Speaker 1: had talent that was equal to theirs. So I'm with

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Speaker 1: you the wise guys, A lot of wise guys I

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Speaker 1: know are with you. But this isn't one of those

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Speaker 1: games where, Yeah, wise guys love the Eagles, wise guys

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Speaker 1: love the Panthers. Wise guys love the Panthers because they

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Speaker 1: believe in Matt rule, They believe in this defense, they

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Speaker 1: believe that the secondary is getting better. But they also know,

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Speaker 1: is Christian McCaffrey playing, is Shaq Thompson playing? Is their

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Speaker 1: third down defense due for a regression because right now

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Speaker 1: they're holding opponents to a third down conversion of a

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Speaker 1: third down conversion rate of twenty three percent. That's unsustainable.

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Speaker 1: Last year the best percentage was the Eagles at thirty

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Speaker 1: one percent. So you've got a sort of it's not

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Speaker 1: a it's a coin flip. It's basically, if you believe

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Speaker 1: in the Panthers, bet the Panthers. I'm with you, I

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Speaker 1: believe in the Panthers. There's one thing that's interesting. Everybody

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Speaker 1: sort of in the gambling space is talking this week

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Speaker 1: about Jalen Hurts is much better against the blitz. Then

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Speaker 1: he's being given credit for the Panthers love to blitz.

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Speaker 1: If you look at Jalen Hurts, he's been blissed about

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Speaker 1: one hundred times in his career. Eight touchdowns, one interception,

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Speaker 1: eight point eight yards per attempt. Don't you think that

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Speaker 1: Carolina knows he's good at responding to the blitz? So

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Speaker 1: there could be some adjustments to how they played defensively

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Speaker 1: that could play to their advantage. The most obvious pick

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Speaker 1: of the week is Titans minus four at the Jags.

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Speaker 1: You have a disrupted locker room in Jacksonville. The Jags

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Speaker 1: played very well, but they've been reeling Urban Meyer situation.

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Speaker 1: The Titans are also humiliated because they lost to a

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Speaker 1: very weak Jets team. This feels like a fairly obvious favorite.

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Speaker 1: Play Titans. Sharper square. Oh, it's totally square, and I

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Speaker 1: hate to say it, like it's sometimes betting means doing

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Speaker 1: bad things. And look, Titans could very well win this game.

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Speaker 1: They're getting eighty percent of the bets, ninety one percent

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Speaker 1: of the money. But in those scenarios, everything about what's

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Speaker 1: happening with this game screams bet the Jacks because you're

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Speaker 1: getting a home team that's a middle sort of not

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Speaker 1: a huge underdog, not a small underdog. It's in the

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Speaker 1: middle of the road at four, and that we don't

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Speaker 1: know if A j Brown and Julio Jones are playing,

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Speaker 1: I would assume they won't because they could probably use

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Speaker 1: the recovery and the Jags are not as much of

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Speaker 1: a threat. The Tennessee defense is terrible, terrible. They cannot

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Speaker 1: get pressure, and they've got twenty one people on their

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Speaker 1: injury list. There's only twenty two guys that start, like

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Speaker 1: on either side of the ball, so they are loaded

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Speaker 1: with injuries. They can't stop people on third down, and generally,

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Speaker 1: like the Titans, they play down to the competition. Last year,

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Speaker 1: look at the teams. They beat Denver by two on

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Speaker 1: the road, Vikes by two on the road. They lost

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Speaker 1: to Cincinnati on the road. They beat the Texans by

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Speaker 1: three on the road. This year they just lost to

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Speaker 1: the Jets. So it's ugly, especially with everything going on

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Speaker 1: in Jacksonville. But the wise guys are going to be

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Speaker 1: in the Jacks all right. One of my favorite bets

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Speaker 1: of the week. I'm going to take the Raiders minus

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Speaker 1: five against the Bears, so Justin Fields gets a start.

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Speaker 1: This is a bad offensive line. Allen Robinson's disappeared, Montgomery

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Speaker 1: is hurt, we have a coach in the hot seat.

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Speaker 1: I think Justin Fields has talent, but that Lions defense

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Speaker 1: is awful. The Raiders are a good team who had

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Speaker 1: no shot on Monday night to beat justin Fields. That

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Speaker 1: was one of those snake pit games. The Chargers played

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Speaker 1: as well as you can play. Herbert got great protection.

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Speaker 1: Don't forget the Raiders offered a very significant pass rush

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Speaker 1: upgrade in the game's previous to that. Also, note that

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Speaker 1: Rashaan Slater at left tackle is playing like a pro bowler.

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Speaker 1: The Bears do not have that advantage. They're at turnstyle

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Speaker 1: at left tackle. So I think the Raiders go back home.

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Speaker 1: They're not a great team, but this is a Bears

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Speaker 1: team that's limited offensively, and Montgomery's hurt, Robinson's not playing well,

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Speaker 1: the offensive lines a mess. I'm taking the Raiders one

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Speaker 1: of my favorite favorite plays of the week. Sharper square. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's square only in the sense that why focus on

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Speaker 1: this one. There are so many games on the board

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Speaker 1: that you can find an advantage in the point spread.

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Speaker 1: There is no advantage here. This game is lined exactly

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Speaker 1: as it should be. There's no opportunity to find an edge.

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Speaker 1: To me, this is remember last week we talked about

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Speaker 1: the Colts and the Dolphins. I'm like, why would you

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Speaker 1: choose that game? There's no edge here. You've got a

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Speaker 1: Bears team with justin fields. You don't know what you're getting.

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Speaker 1: The one thing we know is that when Bill Laser

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Speaker 1: was calling the plays for the Bears, he was better.

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Speaker 1: When he had a little bit more time against a

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Speaker 1: bad Lions defense, he was better. The Raiders cannot pressure

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Speaker 1: the ball. Max Crosby's great. Outside of Max Crosby, they

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Speaker 1: get no pressure on the ball. And we saw a

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Speaker 1: car his weaknesses. They play to the Bears strength offensively,

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Speaker 1: which is pressuring the quarterback. So there's too many strength

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Speaker 1: on weakness, strength on weakness, too many unknown still about

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Speaker 1: what you're getting from the Bears. The line is exactly

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Speaker 1: what it should be. You're not going to get a

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Speaker 1: Wise got to tell you he loves either side. College

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Speaker 1: football season in full swing. Baby. You can make every

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Speaker 1: interesting games this week. I like Oklahoma minus three and

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Speaker 1: a half to beat Texas and cover. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a high scoring game, but I'll take the Sooner's culture

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Speaker 1: to beat the Longhorns. Keep your eye on Michigan minus

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Speaker 1: three at Nebraska. I think Michigan has an identity for

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Speaker 1: the first time in the hardball Rain. I think the

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Speaker 1: Wolverines win and cover. Also, I think Penn State plus

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Speaker 1: two and a half has a chance in sort of

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Speaker 1: a dull, low scoring game to beat Io. I'd probably

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Speaker 1: take them plus two and a half. By the way,

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Speaker 1: one hundred eight nine seven eight nine We're gonna one

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Speaker 1: hundred next step or text next step to five three

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Speaker 1: four two Arizona. I would take Browns plus one and

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Speaker 1: a half at the Chargers. My takeaway is Baker Mayfield

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Speaker 1: Off is worst game, probably in a year the Chargers

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Speaker 1: on a short week. It's a very young team. Many

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Speaker 1: of their best players or firstay second year players Asante

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Speaker 1: Samuel Justin, Herbert Rashaan Slater. This is still a young team.

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Speaker 1: I would take the under on this game, because as

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Speaker 1: we know from Brandon Staley, every Charger opponent has scored

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Speaker 1: their fewest points of the year against the Chargers. But

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Speaker 1: I do like the Browns getting points. I think they

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Speaker 1: bounced back and I and I do believe Cleveland's defense

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Speaker 1: now is as good or better than their offense. I

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Speaker 1: think the Browns are a better overall roster, and they're

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Speaker 1: getting a point and a half. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: the stadium will be fifty fifty Browns fans. It's not

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Speaker 1: really a road game. Most interesting game on the board,

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Speaker 1: I will tell you when I do the podcast the

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Speaker 1: Favorites with Simon Hunter Professional Better. Every single week we

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Speaker 1: record on Tuesday, we'll talk about all the games, and

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Speaker 1: then we'll record again on Thursday as we narrow down

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Speaker 1: the field and the games we like the best. This

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Speaker 1: was the game we debated most on Tuesday. Every single Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: after the podcast comes out, Simon, who is a professional

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Speaker 1: Better for a long time, gets calls from whose buddies

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Speaker 1: who are professional betters, and they will critique what he

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Speaker 1: is talking about. Who'll get two or three games where

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Speaker 1: they're like, what are you doing, You're on the wrong side,

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Speaker 1: You're crazy for thinking this he loved the Browns on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: I loved the Chargers, and everything you said is right.

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Speaker 1: The Browns d is completely bawling out. The secondary is

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Speaker 1: deep and it's talented, and Miles Garrett is rushing the pasture.

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Speaker 1: Their linebacking Corps young linebacking core is amazing. They've only

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Speaker 1: allowed twenty points in the past ten quarters. Okay, they

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Speaker 1: played the Vikings, who are great defense and completely of

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Speaker 1: a great offense and completely stiming them when they were

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Speaker 1: both the pro and the public faves last week, and

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Speaker 1: so now you're playing a Chargers defense. The run defense

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00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 1: is terrible. Brown's rushing offense is great. The bookmakers are

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Speaker 1: begging you to take the Chargers here. It's a much

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Speaker 1: shorter line than you would expect because people would think

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Speaker 1: the Chargers they're getting so much better, they're owning the

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Speaker 1: AFC West, they just had a huge win in prime time.

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Speaker 1: You're getting an opportunity here with the Chargers. And there's

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Speaker 1: one key component here, one key component. Baker Mayfield is

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Speaker 1: playing with a torn partially torn the labram and his

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Speaker 1: non throwing shoulder. Look, they just came out today. I

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Speaker 1: know it's his non throwing shoulder. I can tell you

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Speaker 1: right now that is a challenge to manage. You get

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Speaker 1: hit the wrong way once, who knows how you're gonna

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Speaker 1: you're gonna deal with it. Torne Labrahams are not easy

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Speaker 1: to play with, regardless of whether or not it's in

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Speaker 1: your throwing shoulders. So I'm going to lean sharpers here,

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Speaker 1: and so are the wise guys. Wow, I my gut

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Speaker 1: feeling is my gut feeling is take the forty nine

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Speaker 1: Ers and five and a half. This has been a

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Speaker 1: very close series. That's the biggest win Arizonas went over

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Speaker 1: the Rams is probably their biggest win with Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 1: It's the most significant, the most discussed. So I go

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Speaker 1: to the natural regression. I also think the forty nine

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Speaker 1: ers are completely desperate, and I do think Jimmy g

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Speaker 1: will play. I'm going to stay away from this, probably

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Speaker 1: because of Garoppolo's health. I would take the Niners plus

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Speaker 1: five and a half. Sharper square sharp, every sharp will

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Speaker 1: tell you to take the Niners plus five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Two weeks ago, people we're talking about the Niners the

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Speaker 1: way they're talking about the Cardinals right now. They were

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Speaker 1: a Super Bowl contender. But one thing, Kyle Shanahan isn't

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Speaker 1: great at is coaching against the spread as a favorite.

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Speaker 1: One thing that he is amazing at coaching against the

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Speaker 1: spread as an underdog. This is when the guy thrives

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Speaker 1: when he's missing holes, when he needs to scheme, when

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Speaker 1: he has to think creatively about how to game plan

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Speaker 1: against a quarterback like Kyler Murray and an offense like

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Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals, and how he has to think about

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Speaker 1: what am I going to do with the players I have,

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Speaker 1: Jimmy g Trey Lance. I can guarantee you this week

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Speaker 1: in practice Trey Lance, They're coming up with running plays

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Speaker 1: for Trey Lance out of the backfield that will give

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Speaker 1: him an advantage against any element of the Cardinals defense.

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Speaker 1: Forty nine ers totally the right side are sure play.

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Speaker 1: I picked the Giants last week outright at the at

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Speaker 1: the Saints to win outright. Joe Judge has been blown

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Speaker 1: out once in his rebuild with young Daniel Jones, one

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Speaker 1: time last year Week three against San Francisco. I think

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Speaker 1: Joe Judge is a good coach. I think the emergence

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Speaker 1: of their rookie receiver from Florida. I think their left tackle,

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Speaker 1: who was seen as a little bit of a bust

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Speaker 1: is now playing really good football. His pass protection, Andrew Thomas,

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00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 1: his pass protection grades are very high. The Giants have

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Speaker 1: If you get your left tackle right in your center right,

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Speaker 1: your offensive line's fine. The offensive line, Greg Kosell told

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Speaker 1: me was very good the last two weeks. I'm taking

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Speaker 1: the Giants plus seven. I think this is one of

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Speaker 1: the most underrated teams in the league. They are two

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Speaker 1: plays from being three and one. This is way too

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Speaker 1: many points in a division rivalry game. One hundred percent,

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Speaker 1: sharp side. You're right about it being too many points

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Speaker 1: rivalry game. The Cowboys are overinflated. This line opened higher.

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Speaker 1: It's been bet down money coming in on the Giants

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Speaker 1: because of what the Cowboys did against the Panthers, because

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Speaker 1: of what Dak has been doing this year, because of

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Speaker 1: trevat excuse me, treyvon Digs a corner and Michael Parsons

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Speaker 1: at linebacker, and because they forced so many turnovers, which

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Speaker 1: by the way, is due for a regression. But you

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Speaker 1: nailed it. Andrew Thomas holding that left side of the line.

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Speaker 1: Last year, first four games, he gave up eighteen quarterback pressures.

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Speaker 1: First four games this year, he's given up six no

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Speaker 1: quarterback sacks. He was the laughing stock of the NFL

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Speaker 1: last year as the fourth overall pick who could not

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Speaker 1: find his way around the edge and blocking anybody from

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Speaker 1: getting to Andrew Jones. Daniel Jones all of a sudden

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Speaker 1: because he's getting better protection. Guess what, he's a better quarterback.

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Speaker 1: One pick this year, one pick that was the end

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Speaker 1: of the half Hail Mary against the Saints. The guy

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00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 1: is just consistently better than he was. I think you're

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00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 1: completely right. The Sharps think you're completely right. I would

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00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 1: take Bills plus three at the Chiefs. This comes down

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00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,199
Speaker 1: to third down. Kansas City cannot get people off the

388
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 1: field now. The Bills have beaten up in a very

389
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Speaker 1: week schedule. The Chiefs have played a much better schedule.

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Speaker 1: That's probably why we have the number. But I do

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Speaker 1: think I come back to the Chiefs, which are usually

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Speaker 1: usually a slow starting team, they're a great finishing team.

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Speaker 1: I think Buffalo is going to take the lead here.

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Speaker 1: I think they're a very tough team to come back

395
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Speaker 1: from because I think they finally found a pass rush.

396
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Speaker 1: I don't think Kansas City now they've let in their

397
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 1: last sixty five games at one point, so we know

398
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 1: they're fine. This is no there's no reason to panic.

399
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: But the defense situationally red zone, third down right now,

400
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 1: it's bad. And I think Buffalo may not be better

401
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 1: than Kansas City in December. I think today they are

402
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 1: and they're getting points and I would take it. Here's

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00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 1: what worries me. Not only are you choosing the sharp sides,

404
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:16,360
Speaker 1: but you're using It's like you're in my notes. You're

405
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 1: talking about Andrew Thomas being one of the better pass

406
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: rushing blockers in the NFL. That was supposed to like

407
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: stump you. I was supposed to say that to you,

408
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 1: and you were supposed to be like, no, one's a

409
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: genius like the guys so locked in. He's down to

410
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: that level of detail. And you're doing the same thing

411
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 1: with the Bills. Not only is the Bills passwords really good,

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Speaker 1: they're number one in the league in pressure rape, but

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Speaker 1: only in number eighteen and the blitz. So what they're

414
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 1: going to be able to do against the Kansas City

415
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Speaker 1: O line that has not recovered from the postseason last year.

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Speaker 1: They have not proven to be able to protect Patrick

417
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Speaker 1: Mahomes in the same way they are going to be

418
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Speaker 1: able to get pressure on Patrick Mahomes without having a

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Speaker 1: sacrifice coverage in the deep part of the field where

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00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 1: their defensive backs are actually very good. So the defense

421
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 1: is just much better than last year, and that is

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Speaker 1: really important. I would take it one step further. You

423
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 1: can bet the plus three. You're gonna have a little

424
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 1: more fun and just bet the Bills on the money line. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna win. I think you're gonna win by ten.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I believe to show you the struggle

427
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: of the offensive line for Kansas City, their highest graded

428
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 1: offensive lineman could be Creed Humphrey, their rookie from Oklahoma

429
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 1: that that's concerned. So what you know, and he's really good.

430
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 1: He was the best center in the country. But we've

431
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 1: talked about this before. A defensive line can be improved

432
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: rapidly by the acquisition or drafting of a great rusher.

433
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 1: Offensive line you could bring in four Pro bowlers, it

434
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 1: takes time. Generally, it's a chemistry unit. And to your point,

435
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 1: in my point, Kansas City right now is struggling in

436
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 1: that space. Okay, here's another game. I'm gonna throw this

437
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: at chet. I got two more left. Sure this one,

438
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 1: I'm going to rely on you. So I'm a believer

439
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 1: in analytics. To point the Saints are very pro analytics.

440
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 1: Washington's not. I have this feeling Sean Payton is pretty

441
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: good awful loss when you doubt him. He's like Mike Tomlin.

442
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,199
Speaker 1: I think he's better. So the Saints only have to

443
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: swallow two. I watched that Washington Atlanta game. Something is

444
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 1: wrong with Washington. I almost wonder if they should trade

445
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 1: a defensive lineman because, and I'm serious here, make a statement.

446
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 1: You got four first round picks on the defensive front.

447
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 1: Trade one. Send a signal. This is bullshit. We're playing

448
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 1: bad football. This is not a good defense, and they're

449
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 1: not good enough in the secondary to play without a rush.

450
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 1: They should have lost that game to Atlanta. I think

451
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Saints minus two at Washington. I

452
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 1: really am Washington. It was one of my whiffs of

453
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 1: the year. I thought they were going to be a

454
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:57,479
Speaker 1: really feisty team. Atlanta moved the ball a lot, and

455
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: it's like that's with an immobile Matt Ryan. So Jamis

456
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 1: Winston is more mobile than him, and they have Taysom Hill. Yeah, listen,

457
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 1: this Washington football team defense has been such a disappointment.

458
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 1: Twenty ninth in the league. Overall, their defensive backfield cannot

459
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 1: cover anybody. They're giving up yards after yards, and they're

460
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 1: not getting any pressure. Chase Taylor. I think Chase Young

461
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: going into last week. I don't think he has a

462
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 1: sack yet this year, which is really astonishing because they

463
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 1: were playing at a historic level last year. Here's the

464
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: problem with your pick. The Saints are the right side

465
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 1: in this game. It's not a sharp play right now

466
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: if you're going to play it at minus two. The

467
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 1: sharp play was Sunday night when this game opened, it

468
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 1: pick and everybody took the Saints. That's when the line

469
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: moved that immediately. It was Sunday night, it was pick.

470
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:47,880
Speaker 1: Monday morning it was minus one and a half. Now

471
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 1: it's a two. What's interesting about this? And you mentioned Tomlin,

472
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 1: you mentioned Sean Payton. We have the same thing with Belichick.

473
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 1: For the past fifteen, sixteen, seventeen years, these three coaches

474
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 1: have been the exceptions to the rule. They have defied

475
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 1: the odds. Literally, they have won in ways in which

476
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: they Historically coaches in that position should not win on

477
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 1: the road off of a big loss, at home, off

478
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 1: of big loss covering when they're not supposed to be covering, right, Robert,

479
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin, Sean Payton in this scenario covers. They've also

480
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 1: had Ben Roethlisberger at his peak, Drew Brees at his peak,

481
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 1: Tom Brady at his peak. So what we are going

482
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: to find out right now is if these things we've

483
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 1: always believed about these coaches is actually true, or if

484
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 1: they were the beneficiaries of incredible quarterbacks. The Saints are

485
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 1: a very interesting case and it's a little bit of

486
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 1: a case study for what you're talking about, Colin, because

487
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: you're thinking about Sean Payton and what he's done over

488
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: the years when he's had Drew Brees, Jameis Winston, he's

489
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 1: trying to keep the ball out of his hands. He's

490
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: basically saying, get the ball to our defense, let them

491
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 1: win the games. And their defense is amazing. So I

492
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 1: do like New Orleans in this game, but I don't

493
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 1: like it in minus two because I've lost the best

494
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 1: of the number. By the way, give me a game,

495
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 1: give our audience a game. You don't even have to

496
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: tell me the side that you think is the most

497
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 1: interesting betable game this week. Oh Colin, I remember how

498
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 1: we talked about last week, I begged you to take

499
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 1: the Jets. I begged you to take the Jets. I

500
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: couldn't say I didn't have the stomach for it. I

501
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 1: took me. I was not going to take both New

502
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 1: York teams. I took the Giants. I took the Jets

503
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 1: and the Giants, and I parlayed them and it turned

504
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 1: out to be a beautiful Sunday for me. The game

505
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: that is most interesting to me right now the Bengals

506
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 1: plus three. You know, it's what's funny about that. I

507
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: told my staff this week, I said, it smells like

508
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: an upset. It totally smells like an upset for the Bengals. Yes,

509
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: so what are the Packers going to do? Joe Burrow

510
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 1: is something special and we've seen it, and there was

511
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: that clip going around this week. Put the ball in

512
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: my hands. Put the ball in my hands right like

513
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 1: the guy's got swag. He's very, very comfortable changing plays

514
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: at the line of scrimmage. He's very comfortable against the

515
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 1: pass rush. The Packers have no pass rush. Jayar Alexander's

516
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: out for the Packers. He was the only thing keeping

517
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: that group in the defensive backfield together and giving anybody

518
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: any fear at all from an offensive point of view.

519
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 1: So now I'm getting the Bengals, who are home dogs

520
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 1: with eighty percent of the action coming in on the Packers.

521
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: Oh boy, I mean, seriously, why are we talking about

522
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 1: the Raiders and the Bears where we can be talking

523
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 1: about the Bengals and the Packers corner TV game again

524
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: and I'm trying to give you play well, you know

525
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 1: I said last week, I knew I had the square side,

526
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,719
Speaker 1: but I love Dallas against the Panthers because Sam Darnold

527
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 1: would play from behind for the first time, and I

528
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:58,239
Speaker 1: believe Justin Fields is going to play from behind. And

529
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 1: I don't like rookie quarterbacks with bad old lines on

530
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: the road playing from behind. I don't like that space.

531
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: I think it's asking way too much. So I love

532
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: the writers this week, and I know what, I'll be

533
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 1: honest with you. I wore Dockers. I am square. I

534
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 1: live for Square. I once drove on to Accord for

535
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 1: eight years. My wife when she met me, she said,

536
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 1: you're kind of a cool guy. Why you're driving a

537
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 1: nerdy car? And I'm like, uh, I don't know, I'm

538
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: not cool. Listen to me. I'm not buying this because

539
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 1: three weeks ago we were having a great conversation about

540
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: how you're betting the number early. You're playing a little sharper,

541
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: And I'm like, Colin, what kind of advice can I

542
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: give you? Because now you're betting the numbers when they're

543
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 1: supposed to be bet So now all of a sudden

544
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 1: you're square again. That's fine, you could be square. It's

545
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 1: better for me. I got more stuff to tell you

546
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 1: when you're wrong. The other games, the other games that

547
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 1: I want to talk about. And it's gross. It's totally gross.

548
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: I don't like I don't like you. You know what

549
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 1: I don't like about this? You bet shitty teams. I

550
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 1: don't like sitting in my living room praying that Jared

551
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 1: Goth makes a play that's revolting to me. I'd rather

552
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 1: just I'd rather chug niquill. There's nothing about that I like.

553
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: Then you would have hated that thirty minutes on Sunday

554
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: where the Jets had the game wrapped up and then

555
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 1: a fourth and ten pass interference and then they couldn't

556
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: get it in from the goal line in overtime, and

557
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 1: then the Titans go down the field like that half

558
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 1: an hour at the same time where the Giants are

559
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: finding a way to grab a win from the jobs

560
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 1: of defeat and I'm winning a Jets Giants money line

561
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 1: parlay while my wife, my beautiful wife who you know,

562
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 1: is waiting for me to go to the block party

563
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 1: that we are finally going to have for the first

564
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 1: time in years because of COVID, and I can't leave

565
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: because I'm waiting for disgusting things to happen. And I

566
00:32:56,920 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 1: am hoping. I give me your one disgusting I'll give

567
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 1: you one Dolphins Dolphins plus ten against the Bucks. Oh,

568
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 1: come on, you, come on, hey, I have supported Jacoby Brissette.

569
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 1: I'm like one of those Bernie Sanders voters. I know

570
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: I have no chance to win, but there's something about

571
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 1: it I like. And last week I'm bailing on Bernie.

572
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 1: I'm bailing on Jacoby Brissette. It's he's hard to watch,

573
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 1: He's rushed, hard to watch. But listen, the Bucks o

574
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 1: line is in trouble. The Bucks defensive backfield is dreadful.

575
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 1: Don't look at don't look at what Mac Jones did, thinking,

576
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 1: Oh my god, Mac Jones is amazing, because, by the way,

577
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: I'll also be betting the Texans this weekend. Don't look

578
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: at that as Mac Jones being amazing. Look at it

579
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 1: as the Bucks defensive backfield did not know how to

580
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: cover anybody. You don't complete nineteen passes in a row

581
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 1: against a super Bowl caliber team if that team has

582
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: a defensive backfield that can actually stand up to what

583
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 1: it's being throwne okay, So give me the Dolphins plus

584
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: ten in an overinflated line where everybody is saying what

585
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: you're saying about Jacobi r Bissette, and everybody is thinking

586
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 1: the Bucks are the greatest team in the world and

587
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 1: Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback in the world, which

588
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: he is. But the line is a little bit too high.

589
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: All right, I'll think about it. You know what, the

590
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: Bengals I may just use in blazing five because I

591
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: do my homework, But that doesn't mean I can't use

592
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,399
Speaker 1: your homework. And I think it's a really smart play.

593
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: By the way, Jamar, Chase, te Higgins and Boyd, how

594
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,439
Speaker 1: would you like that if you're a quarterback? How would

595
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 1: you like to have those three for the next four years? Right? Wow?

596
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 1: And by the way, te Higgins, te Higgins, he's back

597
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 1: this week? Right? And so it's another weapon that he

598
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: has against a defensive backfield that really isn't a lot

599
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 1: of trouble. All right, milman, I'm out of here. I

600
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,240
Speaker 1: got stuff to do. There sa the floors at my house,

601
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 1: by the way, and I have a little bit of

602
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: a head cold, so dust in the air, head cold.

603
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,359
Speaker 1: It's like, you know, here's the thing. We bought an

604
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,800
Speaker 1: old house, and you know whatever, My wife's a designer.

605
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 1: She likes projects, So I bought an old house. We're

606
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 1: six months in. Every day there's literally saran wrap on staircases.

607
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:24,399
Speaker 1: It's a miserable life, you know what. Anybody listening, buy

608
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 1: a new house. There's no reason to waste your life

609
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 1: through a maze of tarp and tape. Can you hear

610
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 1: the Sanders in the background. Can you hear them? We

611
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: can't at all. But but I know what you're going

612
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: through because I have had work done in my house

613
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 1: for about the past six months inside outside, Today the

614
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 1: internet went out during my podcast because someone cut a

615
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: line while they were doing something in the basement. And

616
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 1: there are times where I'm on a zoom and I'm

617
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: on mute and people will be saying, chat, are you

618
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 1: trying to talk. And it's not me trying to talk.

619
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,280
Speaker 1: It's the noise in my house that is so loud.

620
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 1: It's fearing with the new button, all right, you know.

621
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:08,400
Speaker 1: The drill YouTube, The Volume Sports Instagram, the Volume Sports Twitter,

622
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 1: The Volume Sports check it out. Good stuff, See you later,

623
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 1: Talk soon. The Volume