1
00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:03,680
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

2
00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:06,320
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

3
00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:08,600
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

4
00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,719
Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

5
00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,720
Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent.

6
00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:16,239
Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

7
00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:18,239
Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

8
00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:20,080
Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support.

9
00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:27,400
Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody,

10
00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,200
Speaker 3: Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

11
00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:31,440
Speaker 3: What do we have, Christal deed, we do.

12
00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:33,879
Speaker 1: Lots of things happening here and around the world. We are,

13
00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:37,360
Speaker 1: of course looking towards New Hampshire. Does anyone Niki Aeli

14
00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,400
Speaker 1: or Ron Desantas have any shot at defeating Trump at

15
00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:42,400
Speaker 1: this point? And in a sign that the answer is no,

16
00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,000
Speaker 1: the beepstakes have already started. Yeah, So we'll get into

17
00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:47,000
Speaker 1: all that. We're also going to take a look at

18
00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,520
Speaker 1: the economy, little vibe check. How are people actually feeling

19
00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:51,840
Speaker 1: about the economy as we head into the general election.

20
00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,040
Speaker 1: There was an election in Taiwan that may have a

21
00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:58,200
Speaker 1: lot of broader implications for their relationship with China. For US,

22
00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,160
Speaker 1: as well, so we'll take a look at that. We're

23
00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,280
Speaker 1: also following big updates out of Israel where night Yaho

24
00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,640
Speaker 1: is proclaiming this thing could last for years. Of course,

25
00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:08,800
Speaker 1: as we've been discussing for a while now, he has

26
00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:12,160
Speaker 1: every incentive to basically make this war on Gaza and

27
00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,080
Speaker 1: on Hesbla and whoever else he wants to take on

28
00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,520
Speaker 1: last indefinitely so he can maintain his grip on power.

29
00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,000
Speaker 1: And this comes as the Hufies are striking back after

30
00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:24,160
Speaker 1: the US decided to redesignate them as a terror group.

31
00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,640
Speaker 1: Also excited to have an Australian journalist in the show today,

32
00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:28,679
Speaker 1: Anthony Lowenstein, who is taking a look at the way

33
00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:32,000
Speaker 1: that Palestinians are used effectively as guinea pigs for testing

34
00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,560
Speaker 1: out new weapons systems. So a lot to get to

35
00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:35,000
Speaker 1: this morning.

36
00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:37,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's certainly so going to be interesting. I'm actually

37
00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:39,360
Speaker 2: excited to talk to him. But before we get to that,

38
00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,200
Speaker 2: we do have an election discount. Let's go and put

39
00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:42,959
Speaker 2: this up there on the screen. So we've got twenty

40
00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,720
Speaker 2: five percent off on our yearly subscription. That's at breaking points.

41
00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:47,600
Speaker 2: Dot Com, you guys can help us out. We've got

42
00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,760
Speaker 2: the RFK Junior rescheduled focus group because of the weather

43
00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,320
Speaker 2: that is coming up, and we've got all kinds of

44
00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:55,880
Speaker 2: plans that we're going to be debuting very very to us,

45
00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:58,720
Speaker 2: you know, quickly, I guess, as the season continues. So

46
00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:00,200
Speaker 2: if you can go ahead and help us out, sign

47
00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:02,800
Speaker 2: up Breakingpoints dot Com. We've got a lot of fun

48
00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:04,880
Speaker 2: things for this election season. We want you all to

49
00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:06,760
Speaker 2: help us be a part of it. But let's go

50
00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,280
Speaker 2: ahead and start, as we said, with the New Hampshire primary,

51
00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,480
Speaker 2: and let's actually just check in, like what the hell

52
00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,120
Speaker 2: is going on over here. Let's go ahead and put

53
00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:16,480
Speaker 2: this up there on the screen. This is just a

54
00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,440
Speaker 2: sign of, I guess, the dwindling nature of the entire race.

55
00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:24,160
Speaker 2: CNN and ABC News have both pulled the plug on

56
00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:28,080
Speaker 2: the GOP primary debates in New Hampshire after both Trump

57
00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,320
Speaker 2: and Nicky Haley critically have bailed Crystal.

58
00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:34,880
Speaker 3: This is all part of Nicky Haley's bizarre.

59
00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:38,880
Speaker 2: Attempt to spin her third place finish in New Hampshire

60
00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,360
Speaker 2: as a two person race. So she's like, I will

61
00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:45,720
Speaker 2: no longer debate Ron DeSantis, I will only debate Trump.

62
00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,200
Speaker 2: And obviously Trump has not participated in a single debate,

63
00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,799
Speaker 2: and so she effectively withdrew from the debate. Now, I mean,

64
00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:54,120
Speaker 2: I'm not quite so sure how much it matters. I mean,

65
00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,680
Speaker 2: this is a five day basically last gasp at any

66
00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,960
Speaker 2: attempt to try and win. We did see a single

67
00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,359
Speaker 2: poll conducted the day of the Iowa of Iowa which

68
00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:07,040
Speaker 2: actually showed Nikki Haley, you know, within striking distance of Trump.

69
00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,200
Speaker 2: Not don't know how much to even put in stock that,

70
00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:14,120
Speaker 2: and obviously there's a lot of rapidly shifting and changing dynamics,

71
00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,919
Speaker 2: but it does show her that like this is this

72
00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:18,880
Speaker 2: is it for her last five days. I mean, yeah,

73
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,560
Speaker 2: Frankly DeSantis too, although I'm not quite so sure he

74
00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,680
Speaker 2: realized it because he didn't have the same expectations of

75
00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,600
Speaker 2: New Hampshire. He may actually be shifting all his focus

76
00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,840
Speaker 2: towards South Carolina, and I guess make that his last dance.

77
00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,239
Speaker 3: We'll have two last stands. I guess in South Carolina.

78
00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,040
Speaker 1: There's a lot of Pete Bootage edge energy here with

79
00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:40,360
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley. You'll recall that he just like declared victory

80
00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,800
Speaker 1: in Iowa and then pretended like he was the guy,

81
00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:44,680
Speaker 1: and the media sort of went along with it, and

82
00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:46,280
Speaker 1: you know, to be honest with you here with Nikki,

83
00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:48,320
Speaker 1: like we can't say it's not working. The media is

84
00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:50,080
Speaker 1: sort of going along with it. And to be a

85
00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,120
Speaker 1: fair to her Ron, Desanta's put all his eggs in

86
00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:56,200
Speaker 1: the Iowa basket. I mean, this man spent tens of

87
00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,800
Speaker 1: millions of dollars in that state, did a massive number

88
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,800
Speaker 1: of events, like they were broadcasting and telling the press

89
00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:05,920
Speaker 1: that they were going to make their stand in Iowa.

90
00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:07,760
Speaker 1: His surrogates were all declaring, you know, they're going to

91
00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,240
Speaker 1: win Iowe et cetera, et cetera. So it is a

92
00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,560
Speaker 1: bigger disappointment for him to finish such a distant second.

93
00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:15,800
Speaker 1: Then Nikki has always put all of her eggs in

94
00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,800
Speaker 1: the New Hampshire basket. So basically she's saying, look, I

95
00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:21,119
Speaker 1: did okay in Iowa. Let's just pretend that didn't happen,

96
00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:22,880
Speaker 1: and let's move forward to the state that I actually

97
00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,200
Speaker 1: care about, which is New Hampshire. You know, in terms

98
00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,839
Speaker 1: of backing out of the debates, obviously, from a democracy standpoint,

99
00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:32,160
Speaker 1: I think all of these candidates Trump included, Biden included,

100
00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,880
Speaker 1: should have been required to do debates all along. I

101
00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,440
Speaker 1: think it's disgusting that people feel like they can just

102
00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,040
Speaker 1: you know, back ound of the democratic process. However, is

103
00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,320
Speaker 1: a tactical move. I think it's probably smart. I mean,

104
00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,800
Speaker 1: number one, I don't think that it's kind of a

105
00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:46,680
Speaker 1: waste of time at this point, not that many people

106
00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,680
Speaker 1: are watching, not that many people care. But also, she's

107
00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:53,960
Speaker 1: clearly versus Ron in the driver's seat in New Hampshire,

108
00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:57,039
Speaker 1: and so why give him any oxygen and any chance

109
00:04:57,400 --> 00:04:59,880
Speaker 1: to make up some ground and you know, the score

110
00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,560
Speaker 1: some sort of a blow on her in that format.

111
00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,800
Speaker 1: So I do think that again from a tactical perspective,

112
00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:09,839
Speaker 1: it's probably a clever move. And you know, while she's

113
00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:12,640
Speaker 1: running out a runway. And I mean, as I said

114
00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:14,920
Speaker 1: last time, I think this primary is basically over. But

115
00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,640
Speaker 1: for Ron, the landscape is even more grim because you

116
00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,080
Speaker 1: already lost the state that you put all your eggs in.

117
00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:23,880
Speaker 1: There is no other state on the map where it appears,

118
00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,200
Speaker 1: including your home state, where appears that you're going to

119
00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,840
Speaker 1: perform better than you did in Iowa. So like, what's

120
00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:30,440
Speaker 1: your plan here?

121
00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean to that point about why the debate

122
00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,039
Speaker 2: would probably hurt, it just opens her up. And then yeah,

123
00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:39,040
Speaker 2: last time, actually because we had that parallel Trump town

124
00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:40,560
Speaker 2: hall versus the debate.

125
00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:42,240
Speaker 3: The town hall got over double.

126
00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,360
Speaker 2: It had like four point four million people watching, and

127
00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:46,000
Speaker 2: the debate had like two some millions.

128
00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,240
Speaker 1: And Ron had pretty decent in that last debate. That's

129
00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:50,839
Speaker 1: right that they thought we won, right.

130
00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:52,120
Speaker 3: So why would she give him that now?

131
00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,520
Speaker 2: Again, I agree they should be required to debate period

132
00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:56,680
Speaker 2: in the past. I mean, if you'll recall Mitt Romney

133
00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:58,360
Speaker 2: and all them, they were debating all the way into

134
00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,400
Speaker 2: South Carolina. That was some crazy stop. They had fifteen

135
00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:05,200
Speaker 2: almost nineteen debates the Democratic debate. Even though Obama basically

136
00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,159
Speaker 2: won after South Carolina, Hillary and him kept on going

137
00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,679
Speaker 2: for a long time. So it's actually sad to see

138
00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:14,080
Speaker 2: like the total collapse of all this. To bolster your

139
00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,960
Speaker 2: point about how some of the wagons are now circling

140
00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,200
Speaker 2: within the GOP anti Trump direction, let's put this up

141
00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:22,960
Speaker 2: there on the screen. The Wall Street Journal put an

142
00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:27,680
Speaker 2: editorial board out on Tuesday saying that President Trump sweeping

143
00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:31,479
Speaker 2: win in Iowa quote should push Governor DeSantis to drop

144
00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,520
Speaker 2: out of the GOP presidential race and give former UN

145
00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,640
Speaker 2: Ambassador Nikki Haley a chance at beating the former president.

146
00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,800
Speaker 2: Mister DeSantis faces no clear path to the nomination. He's

147
00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,560
Speaker 2: well behind her in New Hampshire and South Carolina. If

148
00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,040
Speaker 2: he believes, as he says, that Trump cannot win in November,

149
00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,039
Speaker 2: he should leave the race and give her a chance

150
00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,640
Speaker 2: to take on mister Trump one on one. So, I mean,

151
00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,760
Speaker 2: to a certain extent, I kind of do see their point, Crystal,

152
00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,359
Speaker 2: this is probably the only chance you have to have

153
00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:00,359
Speaker 2: any meaningful blow. But DeSantis himself, I mean from a

154
00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,480
Speaker 2: self interested point of view, like, why would he do that?

155
00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:03,080
Speaker 3: For him?

156
00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:05,880
Speaker 2: He's he did get second in Iowa. He has no

157
00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,280
Speaker 2: reason that he necessarily has to drop out. I mean

158
00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:09,840
Speaker 2: everyone's like, oh, you have no chance. I mean, you

159
00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:11,480
Speaker 2: don't know until the votes are cast. It's one of

160
00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:13,240
Speaker 2: those where it's up in the air. I don't think

161
00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:14,760
Speaker 2: it's gonna work out for him, but you know, I

162
00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,480
Speaker 2: guess we'll see. And then it all comes back to this.

163
00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:21,400
Speaker 2: They say, they say things, do they really believe them.

164
00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,600
Speaker 2: Like for DeSantis, DeSantis raised his hand at every debate

165
00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,120
Speaker 2: and he said that he would support the GOP nominee.

166
00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,720
Speaker 2: So when Trump wins, is he going to endorse him? Yeah,

167
00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:31,840
Speaker 2: he already said he would. NICKI Haley too, I mean,

168
00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:34,640
Speaker 2: by all means, it seems as she's campaigning for a

169
00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,880
Speaker 2: vice president. There's been actually, interestingly enough, I spotted an

170
00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:41,520
Speaker 2: instance where Jason Miller, who works for Trump, the day

171
00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:44,720
Speaker 2: before the Iowa Caucuses, he was asked, well, vag Ramaswami

172
00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:46,440
Speaker 2: ever vi president? He said no, I don't think So

173
00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:48,320
Speaker 2: they said what about Nicki Haley? And he said, well,

174
00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,560
Speaker 2: we'll see, So he kept it. He kept the door open.

175
00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,160
Speaker 2: There's previous leaks and all that. I don't know, there's

176
00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:55,000
Speaker 2: gonna be a big fight within Trump world. I wouldn't

177
00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:56,960
Speaker 2: personally bet on it. But for this woman, I mean,

178
00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,160
Speaker 2: ambition is everything like and she also doesn't believe anything

179
00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,520
Speaker 2: that she says. Like now she's against Trump. Previously she

180
00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,280
Speaker 2: walked back her January sixth criticism, and then before that

181
00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:07,600
Speaker 2: she was.

182
00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,080
Speaker 3: Against him for January six She's all over the place and.

183
00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,160
Speaker 2: She's like, I want to call my friend President Trump

184
00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,480
Speaker 2: to clear the air. This is before she decides to

185
00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:16,840
Speaker 2: run against him. So I wouldn't put it out that

186
00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,320
Speaker 2: all of them are just in a self interested you know,

187
00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,520
Speaker 2: like march towards us and they are just looking out

188
00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:23,720
Speaker 2: what's good for them. I'm not convinced that it would

189
00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:25,920
Speaker 2: be the best thing for DeSantis to drop out, because

190
00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:27,880
Speaker 2: then the Trump people would say, oh, well, he tried

191
00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:30,440
Speaker 2: to help Nicki, you know, the Edmond He would only

192
00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,200
Speaker 2: increase They don't believe what they're actually saying here.

193
00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:37,400
Speaker 1: So for Nicki and Ron, in terms of their self interest,

194
00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:41,320
Speaker 1: there are two possible tracks to pursue. One is the

195
00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,560
Speaker 1: try to stay good with the megabas track. I think

196
00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:49,079
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis is probably more likely to go in that

197
00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:52,480
Speaker 1: direction because he even though he's been a little bit

198
00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:56,120
Speaker 1: critical of Trump, like the Republican base still likes him.

199
00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:58,880
Speaker 1: They don't see him as a never Trump figure. You know,

200
00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,199
Speaker 1: he maintains a war. If Trump were to drop out

201
00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:03,640
Speaker 1: of the race, I think Ron would you know, go

202
00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,360
Speaker 1: to prison, da whatever for whatever reason he disappears. I

203
00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,760
Speaker 1: think Ron DeSantis would be way better positioned to pick

204
00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,480
Speaker 1: up his support, certainly than Nikki Haley. So I think

205
00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:14,720
Speaker 1: he's probably more likely to go in the direction of like,

206
00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:16,640
Speaker 1: what am I going to do to make sure the

207
00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,000
Speaker 1: Republican base still likes me, that I still have a

208
00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,480
Speaker 1: future in Republican politics given that Donald Trump is still

209
00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:24,720
Speaker 1: the man? How can I get back in Donald Trump's

210
00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:26,800
Speaker 1: good graces? So he's not just like, you know, being

211
00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,120
Speaker 1: mean to me all the time and humiliating me all

212
00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:31,000
Speaker 1: the times. I have some chance in the future in

213
00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,000
Speaker 1: Republican politics. I think that is more likely the track

214
00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,600
Speaker 1: that Ron DeSantis is going to go on. The other

215
00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,760
Speaker 1: possible career track is the one that I think Nikki

216
00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,679
Speaker 1: Haley is more likely to pursue, which is the let

217
00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:44,880
Speaker 1: me be the darling of the media and the donor

218
00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,400
Speaker 1: base and let me, you know, maybe on position for

219
00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,120
Speaker 1: more board seats and make it more money. Maybe on

220
00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:54,600
Speaker 1: position for some future never Trump or anti Trump lane.

221
00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,520
Speaker 1: Maybe on position for a CNN gig or other mainstream

222
00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:01,880
Speaker 1: press gig. And she because she has taken on almost

223
00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:05,160
Speaker 1: like an anti Trump Chris Christie vibe with the Republican

224
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,760
Speaker 1: base in this primary, in spite of her very conservative

225
00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,120
Speaker 1: records bye the fact that she also was very gentle

226
00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,440
Speaker 1: with Trump. That's the way she's beginning to be seen

227
00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:15,920
Speaker 1: among Republicans. I think she is more likely to pursue

228
00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:19,839
Speaker 1: that track. Now, what does that mean exactly in terms

229
00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,319
Speaker 1: of her calculation for when and how she gets out

230
00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:24,760
Speaker 1: of this race. I think it's a real open question.

231
00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:26,600
Speaker 1: You know, I hadn't really thought about this thought through

232
00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,800
Speaker 1: this until yesterday. But there is some chance that between

233
00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:33,559
Speaker 1: even if she loses North New Hampshire and even if

234
00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,000
Speaker 1: she loses South Carolina and even and she's going into

235
00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,560
Speaker 1: Super Tuesday and she's way behind, there is some chance,

236
00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,480
Speaker 1: you know, zero point five percent or whatever, that there

237
00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,120
Speaker 1: is about black swan event and Trump is taken out

238
00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 1: of the race, and that there's some benefit to donors

239
00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,680
Speaker 1: of having one of their representatives as like the last

240
00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:53,560
Speaker 1: persons standing point. So I think, you know, that may

241
00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:55,679
Speaker 1: be a calculation that she makes where even though it's

242
00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:58,520
Speaker 1: completely humiliating to get blown out in all of these

243
00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,840
Speaker 1: races by like sixty percent, but she may stay in

244
00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:05,080
Speaker 1: there even you know, and accept that level of humiliation

245
00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,000
Speaker 1: just because that's what the donor class wants her to do,

246
00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,840
Speaker 1: to be where they want her to be, just in

247
00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:12,559
Speaker 1: case something unforeseen happens.

248
00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,200
Speaker 2: I mean, remember Hillary stayed in until June of what

249
00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:17,080
Speaker 2: was it to June of two thousand and eight, months

250
00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:18,920
Speaker 2: and months after it was clear that she wasn't going

251
00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:20,360
Speaker 2: to win. I mean, I guess she was banking more

252
00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:22,600
Speaker 2: on super delegates at that time, but you know, the

253
00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:24,760
Speaker 2: same kind of case was there just in case, you

254
00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:26,800
Speaker 2: might be able to know to do that, and that's

255
00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,280
Speaker 2: something that Ted Cruz and John Kasick. As we all

256
00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:31,439
Speaker 2: can recall, he stayed all the way until the end

257
00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,240
Speaker 2: of the primary. So if a vike Ramaswami, obviously we

258
00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,000
Speaker 2: covered the news on Tuesday dropping out of the race

259
00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:39,920
Speaker 2: on Monday night in Iowa after he only was able

260
00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:43,320
Speaker 2: to get eight percent finished fourth, immediately not only endorse Trump,

261
00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,600
Speaker 2: but is now actively joining the campaign. He campaigned with

262
00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,920
Speaker 2: Trump in New Hampshire, now taking to the airwaves, mostly

263
00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:52,520
Speaker 2: on Fox, calling on rohnd De Santis and Nikki Haley

264
00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:53,120
Speaker 2: to drop out.

265
00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:54,520
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen to what he said.

266
00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:56,720
Speaker 4: I think that you guys may have seen some of

267
00:11:56,760 --> 00:12:00,000
Speaker 4: the rally that we had and the response was overwhelmed.

268
00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:02,520
Speaker 4: And I think it's very clear who the Republican primary

269
00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,000
Speaker 4: electorate is saying that they want to be their nominee.

270
00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:06,719
Speaker 3: I ran to be that person. They sent me a

271
00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:07,840
Speaker 3: very positive message.

272
00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:09,920
Speaker 4: But the very positive message they send to all of

273
00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,720
Speaker 4: us is that Donald Trump needs to be the nominee

274
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:14,840
Speaker 4: of this party. And I think Ron Santas and Nikki

275
00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,400
Speaker 4: Haley would actually at this point do this country and

276
00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:20,600
Speaker 4: this party a service. By stepping aside to make sure

277
00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,280
Speaker 4: that we're focused on not only nominating Donald Trump, but

278
00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:27,800
Speaker 4: getting this country back and reviving those founding revolutionary ideals.

279
00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:29,960
Speaker 4: And I think we do live in that seventeen seventy

280
00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,079
Speaker 4: six moment right now. We need to win.

281
00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,480
Speaker 2: You're calling on Nikki Haley and Ron De Santis to

282
00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:36,720
Speaker 2: drop out right now.

283
00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:40,280
Speaker 4: I am, and I do think that would be healthy

284
00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:41,839
Speaker 4: for this country. And I think that, you know what,

285
00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,160
Speaker 4: especially Ron De Santis, at least of the two of them,

286
00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,240
Speaker 4: will have an important role to play in the future

287
00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:48,920
Speaker 4: of this country and leading this nation. I do believe that.

288
00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:50,880
Speaker 4: But I think that the right thing to do right

289
00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:54,120
Speaker 4: now is the people of this country through the Iowa Caucus.

290
00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:57,040
Speaker 4: It's the most grassroots process I've seen. I personally did

291
00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,839
Speaker 4: over three hundred and ninety events, built great relationships and

292
00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:02,600
Speaker 4: good will, but the message they sent was clear. I

293
00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:04,400
Speaker 4: think it's time to actually make sure we elect the

294
00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:05,120
Speaker 4: right president.

295
00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,640
Speaker 2: So to underscore your points as well, Crystal, with that,

296
00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:09,920
Speaker 2: let's put this up there on the screen. The Rhonda

297
00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,640
Speaker 2: Santis super pac is actually having layoffs on the very

298
00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,920
Speaker 2: same time that he would try to win in New Hampshire.

299
00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:19,120
Speaker 2: They appear to be putting all of their efforts. As

300
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:22,200
Speaker 2: we said on South Carolina, they're basically writing off the state.

301
00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,320
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley's got much more, not only never Trump type

302
00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,480
Speaker 2: Trump anti Trump sympathetic voters, but New Hampshire's got the

303
00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,520
Speaker 2: open primary process, and since we don't have an active

304
00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,040
Speaker 2: Democratic primary, or do we which we will get to

305
00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:36,079
Speaker 2: just in a second, it's one of those where we

306
00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,199
Speaker 2: could see some crossover voters who come in and support

307
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:41,720
Speaker 2: her as some sort of last ditch effort. So all

308
00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:44,079
Speaker 2: of this is kind of pointing to the fact that

309
00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,280
Speaker 2: it's do or die, you know, for Nicki Haley, and

310
00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,680
Speaker 2: Trump is basically treating it that way. He's not even

311
00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,600
Speaker 2: really paying attention to Rondasantis. Let's put this up there

312
00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,480
Speaker 2: after following on he had originally had a birth attack

313
00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:54,959
Speaker 2: on Nicki.

314
00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:56,120
Speaker 3: Now he's going with this.

315
00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:59,959
Speaker 2: Anyone listening to Nicki Nimrada Haley, it's actually nim Ratha

316
00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:02,440
Speaker 2: whacked out speech last night, would thinks she won the

317
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,280
Speaker 2: Iowa primary. She didn't, and she couldn't even beat a

318
00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,240
Speaker 2: very flawed Rna Sanctimonius who's out of money and out

319
00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:11,960
Speaker 2: of hope. Nikki came in a distant third. She said

320
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,040
Speaker 2: she would never run against me. He was a great president.

321
00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:16,520
Speaker 2: She should have followed her own advice. She's now stuck

322
00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,480
Speaker 2: with weak policies and a very strong MAGA base.

323
00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:21,480
Speaker 3: There's just nothing that she can do.

324
00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:24,240
Speaker 2: So look, he seems to be treating it as a

325
00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,280
Speaker 2: one on one and actually the Trump people are on

326
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,160
Speaker 2: the ground in New Hampshire. They seem to be feeling

327
00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 2: good about it. Let's just underscore the one chance Niggi has,

328
00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,280
Speaker 2: which is she's got a hell of a lot of money.

329
00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,360
Speaker 2: She's got more money than Rond DeSantis right now, She's

330
00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,600
Speaker 2: got the billionaire class behind her, and she's got the possibility.

331
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:41,400
Speaker 2: I mean, at this point, it's not even fair to

332
00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:43,600
Speaker 2: call it a black swan event because it's totally predictable.

333
00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,000
Speaker 2: It's like a white swan. It's just like when is

334
00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,960
Speaker 2: it going to flap its wings? And that's Trump's legal problems.

335
00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:50,560
Speaker 2: To what extent are they going to be there? Nobody knows.

336
00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,440
Speaker 2: Just to give everybody an idea, you know, Trump currently

337
00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,480
Speaker 2: is fighting his second defamation case against Egene Carroll.

338
00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:57,520
Speaker 3: We can put that up there.

339
00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:00,680
Speaker 2: That's happening right now actually with a federal judge actually

340
00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:02,280
Speaker 2: coming down on Trump. They're saying that you can be

341
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,840
Speaker 2: kicked out of this trial if you keep making disparaging

342
00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:06,240
Speaker 2: comments that the jury could hear.

343
00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:07,600
Speaker 3: Then he's been putting.

344
00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:10,520
Speaker 2: Stuff out on truth Social as well. Previously, she'd already

345
00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:13,240
Speaker 2: sought and won damages against him. Now she's going for

346
00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,360
Speaker 2: it a second time after I believe it was a

347
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:17,840
Speaker 2: previous truth Social case that came out afterwards.

348
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,000
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously you know her.

349
00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,160
Speaker 2: I believe her case is being bankrolled by what is

350
00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:25,200
Speaker 2: his name, reed Hoffman, the Democratic billionaire. Regardless, it obviously

351
00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:28,600
Speaker 2: worked already in terms of the defamation against him. Now

352
00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:31,320
Speaker 2: we're getting to the second case that's against him. She's

353
00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,080
Speaker 2: basically trying to bleed money from him and just keep

354
00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 2: him tied up in court.

355
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,320
Speaker 3: But that's I mean, that's the least.

356
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:38,160
Speaker 2: Of his problems. Money he at least has, or at

357
00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:42,040
Speaker 2: least appears to have. Everything else Like, that's not necessarily

358
00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,360
Speaker 2: one you can just pay your way out of. You've

359
00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,880
Speaker 2: got the Georgia case, although you know we've got problems

360
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,000
Speaker 2: there which we've covered. We've got but I mean, I mean,

361
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,840
Speaker 2: at the same time, I also have to come back

362
00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:53,880
Speaker 2: to the documents, so I have to remind myself as

363
00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:55,720
Speaker 2: you did the last time we were discussing, that that

364
00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:57,760
Speaker 2: one is just open and shut, Like there's just no,

365
00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,120
Speaker 2: there's no January sixth, like first en Men's Supreme Court,

366
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,440
Speaker 2: Like not even the court can save you on that one.

367
00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,760
Speaker 2: And that's why Trump his last truth actually just this morning,

368
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,920
Speaker 2: was about how the president should have total immunity while

369
00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:12,520
Speaker 2: he's in office, because I think he does seem to understand.

370
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:14,680
Speaker 2: It's like, look, he's got a chance on jan six

371
00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:17,480
Speaker 2: he's got it at the court. Not necessarily with the jury.

372
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,720
Speaker 2: He's got a chance ish, I guess with election law

373
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:21,720
Speaker 2: and free speech.

374
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:21,800
Speaker 3: And all that.

375
00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,320
Speaker 2: But the Document's case, I mean, that's one where after

376
00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,280
Speaker 2: he was president, so he no longer has the same

377
00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 2: level of immunity.

378
00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:28,800
Speaker 3: And given the fact that his.

379
00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:32,560
Speaker 2: Own administration argued against the same classification standards that he

380
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 2: is trying to prop up for for like why he

381
00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,000
Speaker 2: didn't do anything wrong, it's going to be a problem.

382
00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:41,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you just have to like, there's different

383
00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,960
Speaker 1: factors in all these cases. The Florida one he does

384
00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,480
Speaker 1: have going for him that it's not in DC. You know,

385
00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:48,520
Speaker 1: we could get a more favorable jury pool. He seems

386
00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:50,640
Speaker 1: to have a judge who is much more sympathetic towards him,

387
00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,000
Speaker 1: So he had some things going for him there, not

388
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:57,160
Speaker 1: really in terms of necessarily winning. But his whole strategy

389
00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,480
Speaker 1: is to drag this out so that he has a

390
00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 1: chance to win at the ballot box and then get

391
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,920
Speaker 1: himself out of all of his legal trouble that way.

392
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:09,679
Speaker 1: The DC cases, you know, they are trickier from a

393
00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:14,760
Speaker 1: legal perspective, but he has less friendly judges and you know,

394
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:18,719
Speaker 1: a potentially less friendly jury pool, and so I don't know,

395
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 1: we'll see. I mean, the big question with all of

396
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,119
Speaker 1: these things is the timeline. And the other question is

397
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,520
Speaker 1: when you have so much legal jeopardy in multiple states,

398
00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:29,120
Speaker 1: multiple charges, what is it, like ninety one different charges,

399
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,160
Speaker 1: you're going to run the table on all of them.

400
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:36,160
Speaker 1: It seems unlikely. So that is the big thing that's

401
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,359
Speaker 1: hanging over all of this. But in terms of the

402
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,919
Speaker 1: Republican primary, it seems very unlikely that any of this

403
00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:46,679
Speaker 1: comes to a conclusion before he's the official Republican nominee. So,

404
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:50,000
Speaker 1: you know, perhaps some of these trials conclude before the

405
00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:54,919
Speaker 1: general election, perhaps, but I think it's highly unlikely that

406
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,919
Speaker 1: there is such an expedited process that any of this

407
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 1: comes to fruition before he is a officially the Republican nominee.

408
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:03,560
Speaker 1: And so you know, that's kind of where we are.

409
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:05,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, as a Trump used to say, we'll see you

410
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:11,080
Speaker 2: see what happens. Let's move on to the next one. Christly,

411
00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:12,879
Speaker 2: you flagged the story. I'll set it up a little bit.

412
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,760
Speaker 2: I'm really curious to hear what you think about Biden

413
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,919
Speaker 2: both right, Biden and the DNC honestly writing off New

414
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 2: Hampshire bypassing it, changing their process such as South Carolina

415
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,280
Speaker 2: comes first, basically to rig the primary because they know

416
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,800
Speaker 2: that Iowa and New Hampshire actually didn't choose Biden last time,

417
00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:32,240
Speaker 2: and Iowa gave him the perfect excuse there, like, oh,

418
00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 2: well it was such a shit show last time, we

419
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:35,720
Speaker 2: have to bypass it. But that didn't mean you had

420
00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 2: to bypass New Hampshire, where Biden conveniently got fifth place.

421
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 2: But South Carolina, where we have a large elderly black

422
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 2: population which votes very very differently than Iowa New Hampshire. Yeah,

423
00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 2: let's just throw it to them because of racism or whatever. Well, now,

424
00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,880
Speaker 2: though it seems even though the New Hampshire primary will continue,

425
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 2: let's put this Pollee up on the screen. The Biden team,

426
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:56,960
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna I mean, look, it seems to be

427
00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 2: panic in a certain way. They are now instant voting

428
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 2: after Dean Phillips has announced his candidacy, a quote weird

429
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,639
Speaker 2: ride in campaign where they want Biden to win New Hampshire,

430
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:09,880
Speaker 2: but they don't want to seem as if they are

431
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 2: all that invested in him winning because Biden by trying

432
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 2: to end the quote one hundred year reign as the

433
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 2: nation's first in the primary and put South Carolina first.

434
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,919
Speaker 2: Now his allies are trying to make it so that

435
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 2: he will have a ride in campaign on a shoestring

436
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,120
Speaker 2: budget where his campaign is not technically involved. But they

437
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 2: still really really want him to win because it would

438
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,560
Speaker 2: be embarrassing, which it would be embarrassing for you to

439
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,399
Speaker 2: lose to Dean Phillips, to Marian Williamson or previously RFK Junior,

440
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,399
Speaker 2: who had been vying for you know, I mean, if

441
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 2: we would think about the RFK Junior case before he

442
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,359
Speaker 2: went independent, when he was on in the Democratic Party,

443
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:46,320
Speaker 2: his entire thing was New Hampshire because that was the

444
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 2: one place where Biden's not competing.

445
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 3: He's literally not there.

446
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 2: And if RFKA was able to win for forty fifty

447
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,399
Speaker 2: or whatever percent, that would have been humiliating and the

448
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:54,160
Speaker 2: media would have.

449
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 3: Had to treat that as a story.

450
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:57,840
Speaker 2: In this case, now we've got Dean Phillips, who's got

451
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 2: i mean some momentum. It's unclear exact how much they

452
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 2: seem to be pulling like a fast one, both trying

453
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 2: to tell the media New Hampshire primary doesn't matter all

454
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 2: this Biden challengers, they're fake. That's why they're rigging the

455
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 2: whole election process and the rest of these states. But

456
00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:13,919
Speaker 2: now they also do want to win to try and

457
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 2: save face. Yeah, in terms of their headlines.

458
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 1: Basically, by being so heavy handed and trying to rig

459
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 1: the Democratic primaries, they screwed themselves. They really screwed themselves.

460
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 1: They thought New Hampshire would fold and would just get

461
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 1: in line and then they would be able to have

462
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,440
Speaker 1: the exact state order that they want, that they thought

463
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 1: was ideal for Joe Biden. But they didn't think through

464
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 1: the fact that I mean, number one, this is like

465
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 1: a point of pride and source of identity and money,

466
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,439
Speaker 1: by the way, for the Democratic Party in New Hampshire.

467
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:44,199
Speaker 1: They didn't want to let this go easily. And the

468
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 1: other thing is the New Hampshire constitution says that they

469
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 1: go first in the nation, and New Hampshire is not

470
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 1: run by Democrats, it's run by Republicans, so even if

471
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 1: they wanted to change it, they're not in control to

472
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,719
Speaker 1: change it. So they're saying, Okay, we have to abide

473
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 1: by our state laws, so we're going forward with this primary,

474
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,160
Speaker 1: whether you're participating or not. So that's what put Joe

475
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 1: Biden in this quandary of like, okay, well, since the

476
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,119
Speaker 1: DNC isn't sanctioning this thing, and in fact, they're penalizing

477
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 1: the candidates in the state. If whoever wins the state

478
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: isn't going to get any delegates, so Biden can't put

479
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,159
Speaker 1: his name on the ballot, so they have to do

480
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 1: this write in effort. But they're also worried that, you know,

481
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: all of this anti Biden sentiment that is very clear

482
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,479
Speaker 1: within the Democratic Party where people really feel like they

483
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 1: want another alternative, and which has been amplified and exacerbated

484
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,680
Speaker 1: by the fact that so many young people are disgusted

485
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 1: with his unconditional support for Israel's all on assault on

486
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 1: Gaza that has opened them up to very precarious situation.

487
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 1: They don't want to be seen as spending any money

488
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,679
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire. So the State Party, which is by

489
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 1: the way, incredibly pissed at the DNC and incredibly pissed

490
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 1: at Joe Biden, they've sort of begrudgingly taken up this effort.

491
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 1: It's a very low dollar amount in terms of presidential

492
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 1: politics that they've put into this right and effort, and

493
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 1: it's a real wild card what's going to happen here

494
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,360
Speaker 1: because it's hard to pull right. How do you pull

495
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 1: what's going to happen in a writing campaign? You are

496
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 1: are you asking people, Okay, here's your options that are

497
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 1: on the ballot, Dean Phillips, Mary and Williamson or some

498
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 1: other write in. Are you sort of like pushing them

499
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 1: with the fact that you can write in Joe Biden?

500
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 1: Are people going to be aware that that's the case.

501
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,880
Speaker 1: I just think it's very even more difficult to predict

502
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 1: what will happen here, and the irony and sager if

503
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 1: they had just played this straight New Hampshire at the

504
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: front of the line as it's you know, always been

505
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 1: in terms of the first primary, Joe Biden was gonna win.

506
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 1: He was going to win. He's winning in every other state.

507
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 1: He would win in New Hampshire and even you know,

508
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 1: maybe somebody would do a little bit better than they're

509
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,640
Speaker 1: going to do in other states. But because they are

510
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:52,439
Speaker 1: so concerned and so nervous and so overly controlling of

511
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: this process and so like so opposed to actually having

512
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 1: real democracy and letting people have a say and like

513
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,439
Speaker 1: go to the ballot box and actually pick, they have

514
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 1: opened themselves up to a vulnerability. So I genuinely don't

515
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 1: know what's going to happen in New Hampshire for Democrats.

516
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 1: We can put this next one up on the screen.

517
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 1: I mean there the polls have been again a little

518
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 1: bit all over the map, I think in particular because

519
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 1: it's very difficult to pull this write in situation. But

520
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 1: there was a poll that had Dean Phillips at twenty

521
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 1: six percent. That's not nothing. I think even that level

522
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: of support is embarrassing for an incumbent president versus a guy.

523
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 1: I mean, nobody knows who Dean Phillips is, right, I mean,

524
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 1: we've interviewed a mer. We know who he is, but

525
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 1: he is a random congressman that the overwhelming majority of

526
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 1: the country has no idea who he is, and the

527
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 1: media has gone to great lengths to make sure nobody

528
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 1: knows who he is. They've done the same thing obviously

529
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 1: to Mary and Williamson. And then you couple that with

530
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 1: there's also a new effort to write in just the

531
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 1: word cease fire on the ballot to try to send

532
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 1: a message to Joe Biden. I mean, I think probably

533
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,880
Speaker 1: the more effective way to send a message to vote

534
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: for one of his actual opponents who's on the ballot.

535
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: I think Dean and Mary in at this point both

536
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 1: support a ceasefire and have some differences from Joe Biden

537
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 1: on their policy towards Israel. But that just adds another

538
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,120
Speaker 1: factor motivating young people to go out and send some

539
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 1: sort of a signal against Joe Biden. So it makes

540
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: it a little more interesting than Iowa. Nothing happened for Democrats,

541
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,199
Speaker 1: but it makes it a little more interesting than some

542
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 1: of the other states.

543
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 2: It's more interesting because we genuinely have no idea, and

544
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 2: like you said, it's already difficult to pull a ride

545
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 2: in number two. People are spending any money on polling

546
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 2: the Democratic race.

547
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 3: We have one, maybe two.

548
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, at this point, it's you know, super packs are

549
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,159
Speaker 2: the only ones with any cash. I mean, if we

550
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 2: look to history and we think about you know, it's

551
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 2: a competitive primary even as sitting president. The last time

552
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 2: this happened was nineteen eighty election. Jimmy Carter only won

553
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 2: forty seven percent in the New Hampshire primary. Ted Kennedy

554
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 2: actually got thirty seven percent.

555
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 3: Of the vote.

556
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 2: So let's say that Dean Phillips gets twenty six thirty.

557
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 2: I mean, that's a serious contender. But I could flip

558
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 2: it and again just point to if Biden had any

559
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 2: confidence in himself, he would do what Carter did, and

560
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 2: you would try and crush your opponent in the primary. Yeah,

561
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 2: Carter maintains he has some cope where he's like, well,

562
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 2: Ted Kennedy really hurt me going into the election. I'm like, dude,

563
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:01,880
Speaker 2: Kennedy was at least your problems whenever it was going

564
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 2: into nineteen eighty election against Ronald Reagan. It's not that

565
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 2: it didn't cost too much money. Money wasn't your problem.

566
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 2: The thing is, I actually it helped him. Having read

567
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 2: a little bit about it, he had to hone his

568
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 2: message both in terms of getting people to come out

569
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 2: for vote for him, and he was in fighting shape.

570
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 2: If we'll remember, remember Obama's first debate against Romney disaster,

571
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 2: and the reason why was, what did all the people

572
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 2: around him say, He's out of practice. It doesn't run

573
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: for office in a long time. He's like, he kind

574
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 2: of forgot that you need to make a case. His

575
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 2: second debate was.

576
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 3: Very, very different.

577
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 2: He tried to reform his professorial tone and getting angried.

578
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 2: That was the real Obama is the only time we

579
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 2: ever really saw him was in that first debate, and

580
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: then he put the mask back on. But the point

581
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 2: is is that you know it's healthy, it's good for you,

582
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 2: and it actually can make you better at overall running

583
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 2: for office. There's also just a question about the media

584
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 2: in this primary. We talked and had looked previously. You know,

585
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 2: I vike Ramaswami was saying like, oh, look, they're leading

586
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 2: me out of polls and not putting my face on

587
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: the screen. You and I are familiar with this, going

588
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 2: back to the Gang Gang. How many times Andrew Yang

589
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 2: was left off? You know, how many times he was

590
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 2: either blackballed or not mentioned by the media. I mean,

591
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 2: in the case of Dean Phillips. There's some crazy stuff. Actually,

592
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 2: let's put this up there. So Dean Phillips says that

593
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 2: he has not been on MSNBC a single time since

594
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 2: he has announced his candidacy. Phillips here. This was an

595
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 2: interview with Politico. He says he may as well be

596
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 2: calling in from the sidewalk outside of the Capitol Hill studio.

597
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 2: He can watch fancy guests come and go, hoping in

598
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 2: vain for Chris Hayes, Joy Reid or Jensaki to just

599
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 2: bring him in for the from the cold. He says, quote,

600
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 2: right wing media has actually been more than invitational. By contrast,

601
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 2: I don't think there's an MSNBC viewer that even knows

602
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 2: I'm a congressman, because that is what is being portrayed

603
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 2: in design to prevent that education. Now, look, let's be clear,

604
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 2: he doesn't have a right to go on MSNBC. But

605
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 2: then there's a question with MSNBC. They're not stupid. They

606
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 2: know they run the table in terms of elitemocratic opinion.

607
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 3: You can't even have the guy on one time.

608
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,719
Speaker 2: So according to them, the Phillips campaign, they said that

609
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:12,479
Speaker 2: they had two previously scheduled appearances. Then this was actually

610
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 2: on CNN. Then both of them were subsequently canceled. Yeah,

611
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: MSNBC has not even reached out to the man. You

612
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,199
Speaker 2: have interviewed him twice, and it's just like, it's not

613
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 2: that hard. You can just text him people.

614
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: It's very available.

615
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:25,919
Speaker 3: Let's to think about this.

616
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 2: You know, from their low rated shows even and all

617
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 2: of that, Joy Reader and these other.

618
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 3: People, What the hell else are they covering on the show?

619
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 3: Why pretend just have him on? You can even be confrontational.

620
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 2: As you were a dean. Look, I'm gonna give him credit.

621
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 2: He sat there and he took it. You know, you

622
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 2: went it back and forth with you guys. That's pretty

623
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: rare actually for people who are running for president. I

624
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 2: actually can't think of a better thing than to have

625
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 2: somebody on like that, especially if you're Jen Zaki or

626
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 2: someone challenge him to his face.

627
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 3: What's the issue with that?

628
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 2: They seem to be totally They seem to be terrified

629
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 2: at even opening the door, which is a huge mistake.

630
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 2: It's a lot of disdain for the viewer because a

631
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,439
Speaker 2: lot of these viewers they love Joe Biden, or if

632
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 2: they don't love Joe Biden, they're going to be offended

633
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 2: because they're much more institutionalist that anybody would even challenge him,

634
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 2: So by airing him, they more likely would turn people

635
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 2: towards the Biden campaign.

636
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:13,119
Speaker 3: But at the very least, like you got to let

637
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 3: people talk.

638
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 1: There's just no reason you shouldn't a guarantee. Calls went

639
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: in from Biden World to MSNBC and to CNN, and

640
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 1: I'm sure to other places as well. I mean, that's

641
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 1: why he's getting booked on CNN and then canceled. That's

642
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: why the invitation is not even getting extended to MSNBC.

643
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 1: And the way this works is someone in Biden World

644
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 1: calls the President Network and says, listen, we don't want

645
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 1: this guy on your air. And if he does, you're

646
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 1: not getting your interviews with the President. You're not getting

647
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 1: your interviews with Kamala Harris or whoever it is that

648
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 1: they want access to. It's not happening. And so that's

649
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 1: the way this game works. And you know, I saw

650
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: it when I was at MSNBC and I did critical

651
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 1: commentary of Hillary Clinton before she was going to run

652
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, and someone from Clinton World called the

653
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 1: network and that's basically exactly the message that was sent

654
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: in no uncertain terms. So that's the way that this

655
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 1: game is played. It's just, guys, it's not journalism. It's

656
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: not you know, it's anti democratic, especially for these networks

657
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: c and m SMEC that pretend they care so much

658
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: about democracy and think about it on CNN too. They've

659
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 1: done town halls with They did town halls with all

660
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 1: of the Republican contenders, even the ones that were pulling

661
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 1: at like three percent. They gave them plenty of air time,

662
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 1: they gave them plenty of exposure. So even if you

663
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 1: look at the pull numbers here and you're like, oh, well,

664
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 1: Marian's not pulling that high or Dean's not pulling that high,

665
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 1: they're pulling high a lot higher than some of the people.

666
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 1: They put on air for these town halls and gave them,

667
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 1: you know, plenty of space and whatever. They've just decided

668
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,479
Speaker 1: to pretend there are no options on the Democratic side.

669
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you, Soger, it's very clear from the

670
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 1: way the Biden people have reacted they fear that his

671
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: support is a house of cards. Now is it really

672
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 1: a house of cards, I don't know, but they clearly

673
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: are worried about that and there's a reason for them.

674
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that they're wrong, I guess is what

675
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 1: I'll say if you genuinely had Dean Phillips, who I

676
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 1: think persents himself reasonably well in interviews, even in you know,

677
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: a confrontational or like contentious interview like I had with

678
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 1: him a couple of times, he comes across well, he's

679
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: able to handle himself. And they're worried that if MSNBC

680
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 1: viewers actually internalize there is another option here basically like

681
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: generic democrat is actually on the table for me to choose.

682
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 1: That they may go ahead and choose that option. And

683
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 1: I'm not one hundred percent short that they're incorrect about that.

684
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 3: They may look, I don't know.

685
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 2: I actually do think Biden probably would prevail in a

686
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 2: quote unquote primary as it's currently constituted. Yes, because I

687
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 2: think a lot of viewers are a lot of voters are comfortable, and.

688
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 1: You know, especially an incumbent is a huge advantage, huge advantage.

689
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 3: Yes, that's right.

690
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 2: That said, you know, there's no reason not to give

691
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 2: him a shot. And I think the point that he

692
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 2: made was fantastic is if frickin' Tim Scott gets a

693
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 2: town hall Dean.

694
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 3: Phillips gets thank you. If Mike Pence, you can't.

695
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 2: Even drag his ask to the finish line in Iowa

696
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 2: to actually run and go on the ballot, gets a

697
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 2: town hall, well then I think Dean Phillips should be

698
00:30:58,480 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 2: able to get a town hall.

699
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 3: It's pretty wild.

700
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 2: It's interesting to the Biden campaign to back up what

701
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: you're saying. They were actually asked for comments on the

702
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 2: story whether they were quashing, and all they responded was

703
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 2: quote law in all caps.

704
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: It's like total disrespect at that.

705
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 2: You know, like very arrogant behavior for somebody who is

706
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 2: terrified and is literally rigging the primary.

707
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 3: So look, anyways we can look at it.

708
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 2: We could say is a possible because New Hampshire is

709
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 2: the one place where they don't have it entirely rigged

710
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 2: to their benefit. One thing we also know is that

711
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 2: the New Hampshire Attorney General and most New Hampshire Democrats

712
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 2: are so furious with the DNC. Their New Hampshire Attorney

713
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 2: General actually is threatening to take legal action against them

714
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 2: because the DNC keeps saying that the New Hampshire primary

715
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 2: is not real, and they're like, hey, you're violating state

716
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 2: law because you're denigrating or whatever our process. So there

717
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 2: is some internal fight here, the DNC is throwing everything

718
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 2: they are at this, but overall we just have to

719
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 2: say this. This is really bad for the future because

720
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 2: what it means is that if they're going to commit

721
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 2: to South Carolina first, there will never be a Barack

722
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 2: Obama type figure ever again.

723
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 3: Period.

724
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 2: There will always like new South Carolina and his political

725
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 2: system are designed as machine politics. If that goes first,

726
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 2: you deny the momentum stories that originally came out for Obama.

727
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 2: And to put it back in history, if South Carolina

728
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 2: was first, Barack Obama would.

729
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 3: Never be president.

730
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 2: Hillary one would have been the nominee, and who the

731
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 2: hell knows we're gonna got freaking John mccainis break.

732
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 3: Can you imagine that if America wouldn't.

733
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 2: Even exist, We've been a nuclear wasteland something like that,

734
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:28,479
Speaker 2: it ever happened.

735
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 1: So let me ask you this, Sager, what do you

736
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 1: think how do you think the media handles it? If

737
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 1: if Dean Phillips actually beats Joe Biden in New Hampshire,

738
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 1: they have to cover I mean I feel that way too,

739
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 1: like they may want to do the Blackount whatever, But

740
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: you can't just one hundred percent ignore. They may doubt,

741
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: they will definitely doubt. They will give you all the

742
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: context in the world for why this doesn't count. Joe

743
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: Biden wasn't even competing, they didn't even spend any money there,

744
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: blah blah blah. But I don't think that they can

745
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: avoid just completely pretending like it didn't open.

746
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 2: It looks like our I mean, everybody want to pretend

747
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 2: you didn't exist. And they got, you know, some twenty

748
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 2: six percent or whatever in a national poll, knock, all right,

749
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 2: and we gotta do something on this. Even he gets

750
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 2: to go on Fox News in all these other places,

751
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: and what did he did in an interview with ABC? Yes,

752
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 2: they edited it, they you know, sens or whatever, but

753
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 2: the point is they still acknowledge that he was real.

754
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: I think the same is going to happen with Dean

755
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 2: if he wins. But if he loses, which probably looks

756
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 2: most likely, yeah, well then it's gonna be a problem.

757
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 2: But I still think if he does crack twenty five,

758
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 2: you still got.

759
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 3: To interview the man. You have to interview the man.

760
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: You have to give him like something, because twenty five

761
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 2: percent is a non insignificant amount of people who came

762
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 2: to the ballot box and are actually Democrats. You can

763
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 2: downplay it all you want, low turnout, et cetera, but

764
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 2: you know you have to at least acknowledge his presence.

765
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 3: We'll see, I mean, to his benefit.

766
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: Right now, he's got a lot of these vcs you know,

767
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 2: currently backing him. He's got the All In podcast Jason

768
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 2: had Jason Calcanis, he did a Twitter spaces with Elon

769
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 2: Musk and with Bill Ackman and with Dean Philip.

770
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 3: Bill Ackman actually gave Dean Phillips a million dollars and

771
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 3: then most ever off of it.

772
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: That's a whole other conversation, but it's very impressionable. It

773
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 2: is not as if you know, he doesn't have powerful

774
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 2: people behind him ready to help if he's able to capitalize.

775
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 2: The only question is if you know if that if

776
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: that even materializes as possible, which I don't know it.

777
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, nobody knows.

778
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 1: Well, it'll be interesting.

779
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 2: At the same time, I wanted to take a look

780
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 2: at the US economy, how exactly are things going not

781
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 2: just for you, but how is it going to affect

782
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 2: the overall election? So we have a lot of weird indicators.

783
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 2: You could look at things a couple of different ways.

784
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 2: First and foremost is probably this, let's put this up there.

785
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 2: Inflation is going to be so massively determinative in the

786
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 2: election and how people feel about where things are going.

787
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 2: As you guys can see from the chart in front

788
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 2: of you, technical the CPI inflation, which peaked at over

789
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 2: nine percent and mid twenty twenty two seems to be down,

790
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 2: but it is down to what somewhere around three point

791
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 2: five or so percent. And I think the big question though,

792
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,439
Speaker 2: is that even though it may be down to three

793
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 2: or four percent depending on the month and things ticking

794
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 2: up in December, it's still a hell of a lot

795
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 2: higher even in the monthly and or annual rate than

796
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 2: where it was back in twenty twenty. We've had over

797
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 2: twenty percent inflation or so that consumers have experienced in

798
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 2: a very very short period of time, which is part

799
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,439
Speaker 2: of what is affecting the overall shock. At the same time, though,

800
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 2: if you look at Americans pocketbooks, despite the fact that

801
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 2: inflation is high, we do seem to be in a

802
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 2: weird conundrum.

803
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there.

804
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 2: This actually just came out a new survey which is

805
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,240
Speaker 2: called the Axios vibes Pole, which I love.

806
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 3: Fines Now I don't know, I actually like it kind

807
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 3: of nails it.

808
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 2: It says Americans are actually pretty happy with their finances.

809
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 2: So this is despite the fact that consumer sentiment is

810
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 2: very weak. People in general are unhappy with the overall economy.

811
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 2: But then if you ask them how do you feel

812
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 2: about their overall prospects, They're like, yeah, I actually feel

813
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 2: good about it. They say sixty three percent rate their

814
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 2: current financial situation is being good. Nineteen percent actually say

815
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 2: quote it's very good. Neither number is very low. They're

816
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 2: actually in line with the average result right now for

817
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 2: the last twenty times at Harris Harvard. Harris has asked

818
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 2: this poll and nationally representative of thousands of people. They

819
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 2: say sixty six percent actually think twenty twenty four is

820
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,760
Speaker 2: going to be better than twenty twenty three, and eighty

821
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 2: five percent say that they will change our financial personal

822
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 2: situation for the better. So Gristal, I mean you can

823
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 2: put those two things together. I'm not quite sure I

824
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:31,840
Speaker 2: could see it. Like I said, a lot of different ways.

825
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 2: We've got the inflation which is ticking up. People are

826
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 2: still pissed off about the grocery store about gas, about

827
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 2: the fact that they're spending more on personal household goods

828
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 2: than they used to, but then in their personal lives

829
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 2: they seem to be kind of happy. I don't really

830
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 2: know what to do with that, but it would make

831
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 2: it makes it so that the question that the economy

832
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 2: is on one hundred percent going to be bad for

833
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. It doesn't, you know, the data doesn't bear

834
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 2: that out to make it a foregone conclusion. There's enough

835
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 2: like sticky and noise stuff within there. It actually is

836
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 2: more up in the air than I would have expected.

837
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 1: Especially when you consider that. I think the vibes were probably,

838
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 1: you know, judging by people's self reported sense of the

839
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 1: economy and how they were feeling, and also the real

840
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 1: numbers about inflation, they were worse around the midterms, and

841
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 1: we really thought, and a lot of analysts really thought

842
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,280
Speaker 1: that was going to be the determining factor for people

843
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 1: casting ballots, and it wasn't. So I think there's two questions.

844
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 1: Number one is how are people actually feeling in their

845
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 1: lives on a micro sense, like day to day, because

846
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: there's you know, do I feel like I can pay

847
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: the bills today and I'm okay today? And do I

848
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 1: feel a sense of comfort about the future or do

849
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 1: I feel a lot of precarity and a lot of

850
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 1: fear for the future, because I suspect that's a lot

851
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 1: of what's going on and why we get these like

852
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 1: counter indications of how people are actually doing. And then

853
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 1: you also have the question of is it still the

854
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 1: economy stupid when it comes to politics? And you know,

855
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 1: as someone with sort of like democratic socialist leanings, it

856
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 1: looks a lot at class and material analysis. I'm not

857
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,399
Speaker 1: sure that that's the case in American politics as much

858
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 1: as it used to be. And the reason is because

859
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:06,800
Speaker 1: no one has any confidence that any of these politicians

860
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 1: are going to do anything for them. So it's like,

861
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 1: why vote on material interests when the only thing I

862
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 1: really expect to get out of them is to, like,

863
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: you know, signal on whatever cultural fights that I care

864
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 1: most about. And so that's the way that I'm going

865
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 1: to think about politics, and that's the way I'm going

866
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 1: to cast by ballot. I think that's increasingly the case

867
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: in American politics. And you can see that in the

868
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 1: fact that there's this is something that Matt carp has

869
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 1: tracked really closely. There isn't really a class realignment. If

870
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 1: you look, working class voters are almost split fifty to

871
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 1: fifty between the two parties. There's a class de alignment

872
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 1: in American politics where perhaps the economy, which should be

873
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 1: the center of a lot of concerns and traditionally is

874
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: the center of a lot of concerns in terms of

875
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 1: translating into voting preferences, just isn't the king that it

876
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 1: used to be.

877
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 3: It's not the king that it used to be.

878
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty two was the real one where you know,

879
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 2: abortion activated so many voters and with such passion willing

880
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,879
Speaker 2: to overripe the interest. On top of that, you had

881
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 2: Trump like cult of personality issues both ways that stemmed

882
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 2: and had their issue if we take you know, just

883
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 2: to look though, I think what we could say this

884
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:13,879
Speaker 2: it is determinative in some respects, but it's not, you know,

885
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 2: as predictive as it once was. It used to be

886
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 2: that you know, if there was a bad, bad economy,

887
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 2: there was just no question about what the economic wins are.

888
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 2: So on that front, Biden has to hope for better

889
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 2: economy if he wants to continue these fights on stop

890
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 2: the steel, abortion and all of that. And look, as

891
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 2: I said too, there's some leading indicators go in Biden's way.

892
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there.

893
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 2: The US consumer actually propelled the economy forward in twenty

894
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 2: twenty three. This is from the Wall Street Journal. That

895
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 2: actually just happened yesterday. They say how American shoppers silenced doubters.

896
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 2: The Commerce Department said retails retail rose actually by point

897
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 2: six percent in December, putting them five point six percent

898
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 2: higher than a year earlier, way stronger than a lot

899
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:58,240
Speaker 2: of economists had predicted. Previously. They had predicted not only recession,

900
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 2: which technically we were in a recession, but whatever. The

901
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 2: whole point is, like are people spending money or not?

902
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,720
Speaker 2: And that on the consumer question, it seemed that consumer sentiment,

903
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 2: while it remained low in terms of satisfaction, consumer spending

904
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 2: remained high and high enough that actually we saw a

905
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 2: record number for the S and P five hundred at

906
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:18,720
Speaker 2: the end of twenty twenty three. And you put together

907
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 2: with that a couple of other things, like, well, can

908
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 2: we expect rate cuts? We can expect a rate cut

909
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:26,919
Speaker 2: to come sometime. That means that let's say rates drop

910
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 2: to four five, four point five or so percent. There's

911
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 2: two and a half years of locked up capital people

912
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 2: who are ready to go. I was just reading this

913
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 2: morning from the Journal there's some eight trillion dollars of

914
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 2: consumer and institutional money in money market funds because they're

915
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 2: paying such high interest rates. Well, if you have an

916
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 2: interest rate cut, then the prospect of actually spending that

917
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 2: you know, that cash, some eight trillion bucks, either in

918
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 2: housing or investing in business, whatever, something that you think

919
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 2: is going to get a better return than when you're

920
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,319
Speaker 2: currently at basically completely safe in a money market. You

921
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 2: could see that. Polling wise too, things are all over

922
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,399
Speaker 2: the place. So we have this, let's put it up there,

923
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 2: just the latest you gov poll. This is the first

924
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 2: one we've actually seen in a while which shows Biden

925
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 2: actually beating Trump. It says Biden at forty percent, Trump

926
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 2: at thirty eight. This isn't the national and two percent

927
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 2: is right around where you need to be if you

928
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 2: actually want to pull off an electoral college victory for

929
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:22,319
Speaker 2: the Democrats. If you add in rfk Junior there, it's

930
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 2: Biden thirty four, Trump thirty three, Kennedy seventeen. Interesting to

931
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 2: see that Kennedy actually appears to be pulling a decent amount,

932
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 2: you know, from both sides quite equally, seven percent from

933
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 2: Trump and six percent from Biden. This is, you know,

934
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 2: in this poll, but you know, relatively kind of consistent.

935
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 2: But you have to also remember that this is an

936
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 2: electoral college. And if we look at the electoral college

937
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 2: and we see some of the must win states or

938
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 2: the ones that if Biden wants to recreate his win

939
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 2: from last time, things aren't nearly looking as good. So

940
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 2: let's put this up there. You know, we have Georgia here,

941
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 2: for example, in the state of Georgia, Trump is leading

942
00:41:56,560 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 2: Biden by some you know, forty five to thirty seven percent.

943
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,959
Speaker 2: It said that twenty percent of candidate of Georgians critically though,

944
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:07,800
Speaker 2: we're not yet ready to support either candidate as things

945
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 2: are shifting in that direction. So with a large number

946
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 2: of undecided voters, guests shows us a couple of things.

947
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 2: Trump may be leading right now, but he still very

948
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 2: much could you know, piss enough Georgians off that they

949
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 2: would come out and vote for them, saving Biden. Biden

950
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 2: did barely win the election last time, but the special

951
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 2: elections and Georgia politics since then have definitely trended in

952
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 2: a non Trump direction. If you zoom that out, it's

953
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 2: just funny because I really could make the case either way.

954
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 2: I can easily sit here and make the case for Biden.

955
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 2: I can easily sit here and make the case for Trump,

956
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 2: Which just makes me convince that it's not only unknown,

957
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,439
Speaker 2: but it's a lot closer than I think either side

958
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 2: wants it to be.

959
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 1: Not to mention that just the chaos factor of not

960
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 1: knowing what's going to happens between now an election day,

961
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 1: like we had no idea October seventh was going to happen.

962
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:51,760
Speaker 1: We had no idea. You know, the way that Israel

963
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:54,319
Speaker 1: respond and this just absolutely brutal fashion, the way that

964
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 1: would become a real center of gravity, especially in politics

965
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 1: on the Democratic side, where the Democratic basis very much

966
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:03,840
Speaker 1: at odds with Joe Biden and young voters disgusted with

967
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 1: his response there. But we did have another election result.

968
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 1: You know, this is where I was because I always

969
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 1: look at these polls. You have a Georgia Poem'm like,

970
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 1: oh my god, Joe Biden is completely toast, like this

971
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 1: old man who can't formulate a sentence that is like,

972
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: you know, lost any sort of potential moral high ground

973
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:20,399
Speaker 1: that he may have had at one time. How could

974
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 1: he possibly beat anyone, let alone Donald Trump, who's a

975
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:26,280
Speaker 1: very skilled charismatic performer. And then I see a result

976
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 1: like this out of Florida where Democrats just flipped a

977
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:32,840
Speaker 1: Florida State House seat in a special election. It was

978
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 1: a seat that Now, listen, this this cuts both ways, okay,

979
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,239
Speaker 1: because on the one hand, Joe Biden did win this

980
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 1: seat by five points. On the other hand, Ron DeSantis

981
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 1: had won the seat by twelve points. So I guess

982
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 1: you can say it's kind of a swing districts and

983
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 1: Democrats just flipped it in spite of the fact that

984
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 1: I was looking at some of the online analysis there

985
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:56,279
Speaker 1: was not a strong Democratic registered Democrat turnout so early

986
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 1: in the day, all the Democratic like polling analysts and

987
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 1: data gurus were freaking out like all Republicans. Definitely just

988
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:04,719
Speaker 1: won the seat. But when the results came in, I

989
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 1: guess because of strong independent performance showing up for the Democrats,

990
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 1: they were able to pull it off. And you know,

991
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:13,439
Speaker 1: this is consistent with the trend that we have seen

992
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 1: since the midterms of Democrats outperforming in almost every special

993
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,160
Speaker 1: election that's occurred. So in the politics of it, I

994
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 1: do think, you know, I could I'm like you Sagar.

995
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 1: It depends on the day and what data point I'm

996
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 1: looking at. I can see it happening either direction. Just

997
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 1: to go back quickly to the economy and trying to

998
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 1: like sort through how people are feeling, like, I want

999
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 1: to be really clear, I think the macro picture for

1000
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:39,399
Speaker 1: Americans in this economy is incredibly dire. Prices have gone

1001
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 1: up a lot, wages have not gone up a lot.

1002
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 1: You have massive inequality continuing and becoming, you know, further exacerbated.

1003
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 1: You have critically the building blocks of middle class life,

1004
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:53,800
Speaker 1: the things that make people feel like I'm going to

1005
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:55,320
Speaker 1: be okay for the future, and you know what, my

1006
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 1: kids are probably going to be okay for the future.

1007
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: We're talking housing, healthcare, and education, all three wildly insanely

1008
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:08,799
Speaker 1: unaffordable and have been skyrocketing in price for years. The

1009
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 1: things that previous generations were able to accomplish, the milestones

1010
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 1: they were able to achieve at earlier points in their life.

1011
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 1: Millennials and now Gen Z are way behind and being

1012
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 1: able to achieve those milestones. In the big picture, America

1013
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 1: is going backwards in terms of like basic levels of

1014
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 1: economic achievement, prosperity, and lack of procarity, which I think

1015
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 1: is a really important term. So I don't want a

1016
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:33,720
Speaker 1: ready to think that I'm saying, oh, actually, the economy

1017
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 1: is great and that's why Joe Biden's going to get

1018
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:37,200
Speaker 1: re elected. I don't think that is accurate at all.

1019
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 1: I just think that there is so much hopelessness around

1020
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 1: any of these politicians really delivering that people are evaluating

1021
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 1: their choices in the election through a different lens than

1022
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:46,919
Speaker 1: perhaps they did in the past.

1023
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:47,720
Speaker 3: Very possible.

1024
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 2: Like you said, I mean, maybe've they've given up. I

1025
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:52,440
Speaker 2: agree completely. I mean, nobody should mistake this as us

1026
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 2: being like, yeah, the economy's great. No, structurally there's massive problems.

1027
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 2: People are very aware of them. Things that you're swimming

1028
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 2: against the tide in many respects, you know, whenever you're younger,

1029
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 2: and the deck is stacked in various different ways, regardless

1030
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 2: whether you're college educated or non college educated.

1031
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 3: As we continue to like look for.

1032
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 2: That, but as you said, people are also short term

1033
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 2: creatures in the way that they think and they evaluate,

1034
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 2: and as at twenty twenty two really did show us

1035
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 2: though that you can be materially really suffering and you

1036
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 2: will still vote sometimes in a different direction if you

1037
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 2: don't agree with another party.

1038
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 3: That's a real X factor that comes in here.

1039
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 2: So you know, the whole point of this is just

1040
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:30,800
Speaker 2: to show you and prepare, since the Republican primary is

1041
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,280
Speaker 2: effectively over now at this point, to just say, like, okay,

1042
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:35,799
Speaker 2: what is actually going to impact this election? And we

1043
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 2: want to give everybody, as you know, round of a

1044
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 2: picture as we can to try and make sense of things,

1045
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 2: because twenty twenty two definitely caught me by surprise. You know,

1046
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 2: I think it did certainly a lot of people. Let's

1047
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:49,879
Speaker 2: move on to China. This is a story that we've

1048
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 2: been wanting saving for quite some time. Obviously we had

1049
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 2: domestic politics and our own elections to kind of think about,

1050
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 2: but this could end up being one of the most

1051
00:46:57,120 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 2: consequential elections of this year whenever we look back ten

1052
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 2: twenty years from now.

1053
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 3: Let's go and put this up there on the screen.

1054
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:07,280
Speaker 2: There was a major election in Taiwan between a couple

1055
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,439
Speaker 2: of parties. He had the KMT and you had the DPP.

1056
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 2: The DPP kind of being the party that the Chinese

1057
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 2: Foreign Ministry and the Chinese population and government was warning

1058
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 2: the Taiwanese you should not vote for them because they

1059
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 2: are not, as I wouldn't say, under our control, but

1060
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 2: it's more so that they don't They do not favor

1061
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:29,919
Speaker 2: having as much of a relationship with Beijing on Beijing's term.

1062
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:33,239
Speaker 2: This new leader, I'm not going to try and say

1063
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:35,799
Speaker 2: their name, but the party that China did not want

1064
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 2: to win did end up winning the election actually pretty decisively,

1065
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 2: and their new leader says that he is going to

1066
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:43,839
Speaker 2: quote stick to the status quo. But as the Wall

1067
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 2: Street Journal says here, his past is what makes us nervous.

1068
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:51,800
Speaker 2: So he's previously the mayor of Tainan, so he wanted

1069
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 2: to quote move a section of railway underground. Residents for

1070
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 2: whose homes would have been demolished, blocked bulldozers with their

1071
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 2: bodies and accused them of selling them out to property developers.

1072
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 2: Opponents apparently called him a dictator. To quote, he was

1073
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 2: undeterred selling them that this was crucial for the future.

1074
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 2: The reason that anecdote matters is that his quote resolved

1075
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 2: or stubbornness as his critics call it, has now taken

1076
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 2: on outside significance after he emerged victorious with some forty

1077
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 2: percent of the vote. So the reason why is that

1078
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 2: currently the current ascent of this man who is currently

1079
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 2: serving as the vice president to the top job. Is

1080
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 2: what makes Americans nervous because they see him is that

1081
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:34,600
Speaker 2: he is more likely to provoke Beijing with quote envelope

1082
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 2: pushing rhetoric and draw the US into a dangerous confrontation.

1083
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 2: Beijing obviously also doesn't like him because he has openly been,

1084
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 2: you know, kind of spiteful of Beijing.

1085
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 3: He's kind of rallied the Taiwan.

1086
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 2: He's populous as independent from Beijing's extension of foreign policy.

1087
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 2: And then the issue too is that, you know, our

1088
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 2: Taiwan policy is very complicated because it's one of those

1089
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 2: where it doesn't make any actual sense unless you like

1090
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 2: have to go back to the beginning where they call

1091
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:06,439
Speaker 2: themselves the Republic of China, but then we recognize them

1092
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 2: as China at the UN until we have the Opening

1093
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:12,280
Speaker 2: of China, and then we no longer recognize them as China.

1094
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 2: So passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which says that we

1095
00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 2: have relations with Taiwan, but we don't recognize Taiwan as

1096
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:22,800
Speaker 2: its own country, and yet all of our diplomatic ships

1097
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 2: with Taiwan treat them as their own country. We have

1098
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:28,880
Speaker 2: visa relations and all that. In terms of our defense,

1099
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 2: we have the strategic ambiguity posture as spelled out in

1100
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 2: the Taiwan Relations Act, where we do not support a

1101
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 2: change to the status quo, and all that means that

1102
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,479
Speaker 2: we don't support Beijing taking over Taiwan, but we also

1103
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 2: don't support Taiwani's independence. This was reiterated by President Biden

1104
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 2: in reaction to the election results. And the only reason

1105
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 2: that we're spending even a lot of time and so

1106
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 2: much on this on Taiwan twenty four million people, is

1107
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 2: that they are one of the largest trading partners of

1108
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 2: the United States. They make some ninety four percent of

1109
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 2: the world's semiconductors that are in the super advanced nature.

1110
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:04,800
Speaker 2: And if there was to be any conflict over Taiwan

1111
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:07,279
Speaker 2: and a disruption to that, it would dramatically change the

1112
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 2: global supply chain and almost certainly would ignite into a

1113
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:15,759
Speaker 2: regional war and possibly even a global global conflict ration.

1114
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 2: So this makes Beijing, a Beijing armed invasion of Taiwan

1115
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,360
Speaker 2: much more likely. That doesn't mean that it's going to happen,

1116
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:28,400
Speaker 2: but you have a Xijingping who is spelled out in

1117
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,440
Speaker 2: multiple party congresses and made it you know kind of

1118
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:34,400
Speaker 2: a picture of national pride for the Communist Party that

1119
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:38,239
Speaker 2: Taiwan reunification reunification as they call it, is something that

1120
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 2: is very important to the party, specifically as they come

1121
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:44,080
Speaker 2: after the one hundred year anniversary of the Communist Party

1122
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 2: in China and as a way to try and bolster

1123
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 2: kind of sagging Chinese nationalistic pride, which we're about to

1124
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:51,799
Speaker 2: get to it a little bit.

1125
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 3: I'm curious for reaction.

1126
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:56,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, So, I mean, the bottom line here is while

1127
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:59,359
Speaker 1: the US may frame our concern over Taiwan about the

1128
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 1: international rules based order and democracy and sovereignty, blah blah blah,

1129
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 1: like I think if anyone believes that at this point,

1130
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 1: you have to have your head examine, because it is

1131
00:51:08,120 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 1: very clear we don't care about any of those things.

1132
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:13,240
Speaker 1: What we care about is what you said, ninety percent

1133
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 1: of the most advanced semiconductors are made in Taiwan. Now,

1134
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 1: why we allowed that to happen is a whole other story, right,

1135
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:24,879
Speaker 1: and basically points to the utter failure of neoliberalism, where

1136
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 1: it was just about, oh, where's it cheapest to produce

1137
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:28,880
Speaker 1: and where can people make the most profits? And it's

1138
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:32,840
Speaker 1: a global economy and the theory of that case, in part,

1139
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 1: was that this was also going to keep us safer,

1140
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 1: this was going to integrate the world, this was going

1141
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 1: to allow peace to prevail. Instead, in this instance, you

1142
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:45,399
Speaker 1: can see very very easily how it could push our

1143
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:47,840
Speaker 1: you know, leaders who are clearly not afraid of starting

1144
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: wars in any place in the world, into a direct

1145
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 1: conflict with China, which no regular person in the United

1146
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 1: States of America actually wants. So this is all about

1147
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 1: those semiconductors. I mean, I'm over simplifying a little bit,

1148
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:04,399
Speaker 1: but that's basically the bottom line. That's why the Biden

1149
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 1: administration pushed through this Chips Act to try to spin

1150
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:09,920
Speaker 1: up semiconductor production here in the United States so we

1151
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 1: would have at least some domestic production. That takes a

1152
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:16,240
Speaker 1: long time, that's a very uncertain future. We are nowhere

1153
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:19,000
Speaker 1: near for the far enough along that path to feel

1154
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:21,520
Speaker 1: comfortable about where we are at this point. And then

1155
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:24,360
Speaker 1: at the same time, soager you've got to have China

1156
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:28,320
Speaker 1: looking at the way that we are basically fools getting

1157
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 1: humiliated in every corner of the globe, and the way

1158
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:37,480
Speaker 1: that we are completely overstretched and saying, hey, they don't

1159
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:39,359
Speaker 1: look like they've got a real strong hand to play

1160
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:42,879
Speaker 1: right now, So maybe now's the time to act. How

1161
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,680
Speaker 1: much have we overextended ourselves in Ukraine? Now we're shipping

1162
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 1: all this stuff to Israel and bypassing Congress, and you know,

1163
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 1: our foolish leaders and presidential candidates and contenders and top

1164
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:54,319
Speaker 1: you know, Biden and Trump and everybody else. So oh,

1165
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:56,720
Speaker 1: of course we could afford wars wherever we want. No problem,

1166
00:52:56,800 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 1: it's no big deal. It's complete and utter insanity. I

1167
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 1: have zero confidence that any of these psychopaths actually want

1168
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:05,359
Speaker 1: to avoid any sort of conflict. They seem to be

1169
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 1: totally happy to risk World War IIE and global conflagrations

1170
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 1: in every corner of the world. So, yes, this should

1171
00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 1: make you extraordinarily nervous when you see these potential tensions

1172
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 1: ticking up.

1173
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:18,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll put it this way.

1174
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:20,360
Speaker 2: Let's put this up there just again to bolster some

1175
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 2: of this, just to talk about how people across the

1176
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 2: globe are looking at this from Politico EU actually and

1177
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:27,720
Speaker 2: say the China skeptic wins Taiwan's presidency.

1178
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 3: In a snub to Beijing.

1179
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:32,279
Speaker 2: What they basically show is that this is going to

1180
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 2: lead to a series of kind of diplomatic interesting standoffs.

1181
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 2: The very first one actually just happened a couple of

1182
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 2: days ago, and I bear with me.

1183
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:42,879
Speaker 3: Please, let's put this next one up there.

1184
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 2: The Pacific island nation of Nauru has severed ties with

1185
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:50,719
Speaker 2: Taiwan in favor of China. Okay, why should we care?

1186
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 2: Most people don't even know that naw Ru is a nation,

1187
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:56,440
Speaker 2: let alone should we care about their relations with Taiwan. Well,

1188
00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 2: the reason that they did it is because Nauru is

1189
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 2: undersignificant ConTroll by Beijing, and they have major economic ties,

1190
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:05,400
Speaker 2: and they are all They're a power in the Pacific,

1191
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 2: not necessarily a big power. But what the Chinese are

1192
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 2: trying to do here is to set up a diplomatic

1193
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:13,880
Speaker 2: case such that breaking off relations with Taiwan leads to

1194
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 2: either Chinese bases or mutual defense agreements, or such that

1195
00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 2: the Chinese navy can move through.

1196
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 3: And it's all about a chessboard, you know.

1197
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:23,640
Speaker 2: The way that they think about these things is decades

1198
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:25,920
Speaker 2: and how they would want to make a move, And

1199
00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 2: so what do you want to do? I want to

1200
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:29,240
Speaker 2: make sure that all the other people in the region

1201
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 2: no longer are either invested in Taiwan, have any relationship

1202
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:34,799
Speaker 2: with Taiwan and don't care about Taiwan or the very

1203
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:37,439
Speaker 2: least have decided to decide with Beijing and to look

1204
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:39,319
Speaker 2: the other way. This is a whole part of why

1205
00:54:39,320 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 2: the South China Sea conflict is now mattered since the

1206
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 2: mid two thousands and why they've been moving in that direction.

1207
00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 3: Now.

1208
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:46,400
Speaker 2: As you said, this has nothing to do with democracy,

1209
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 2: and I would never make a case here about that,

1210
00:54:48,360 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 2: because I mean, let's be honest, this is about our

1211
00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:54,280
Speaker 2: eighth largest trading partner and probably the most critical trade

1212
00:54:54,440 --> 00:54:58,000
Speaker 2: the most critical piece of land in the entire world.

1213
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 2: Because as you said, you can have the Chips Act,

1214
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 2: that's great, it takes five years from breaking ground until

1215
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 2: you can even begin to have a chip roll off

1216
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 2: of a fab based upon people I've spoken to in

1217
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:12,239
Speaker 2: the US, because of regulation and because of lack of

1218
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:14,359
Speaker 2: no how and all that, it's probably a decade. So

1219
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 2: that means that for the next decade we're an incredibly

1220
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:20,000
Speaker 2: precarious situation. Then you look at America and if I

1221
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:22,880
Speaker 2: have the Chinese dispassionately, and I'd be like, these idiots

1222
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:25,320
Speaker 2: are bogged down in Ukraine. These idiots, they don't have

1223
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 2: enough artillery to supply a third world nation in Eastern

1224
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:32,839
Speaker 2: Europe let alone themselves, and.

1225
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:34,960
Speaker 3: Then they've got all this Israel stuff going on.

1226
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:38,240
Speaker 2: They got two carriers over there, like they're getting stumped

1227
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 2: by the hoo theyes in terms of their global trade.

1228
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 2: I mean, if you guys think of Red Sea matters

1229
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:46,120
Speaker 2: to America, take a look at some of the global

1230
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 2: traffic through the Straits of Malacca, the Taiwan Straight and

1231
00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 2: through the South China Sea.

1232
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:52,400
Speaker 3: This is ten fifteen times more important.

1233
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:54,880
Speaker 2: I'm just talking about shipping, and not even talking about

1234
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 2: the semiconductors. This would literally would reroute the entire globe

1235
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 2: in terms of how things would work. To mention that

1236
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:03,239
Speaker 2: China's our third largest trading partner, Taiwan is number eight,

1237
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 2: the amount of economic damage and all that that would

1238
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 2: suffer as a result of this is just incalculable. My

1239
00:56:09,239 --> 00:56:12,360
Speaker 2: only point is that this level of precarity and some

1240
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:16,239
Speaker 2: sort of war in East Asia would be catastrophic. And

1241
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:19,399
Speaker 2: what's even more interesting to me is I sent this

1242
00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:20,920
Speaker 2: actually I'm not sure if you got a chance to

1243
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 2: read it, is that Kim Jong un and North Korea

1244
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:28,520
Speaker 2: also appears to be preparing for something happening in East Asia.

1245
00:56:29,040 --> 00:56:32,879
Speaker 2: They're changing their constitution to say that they're basically they're

1246
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 2: rechanging it so that currently their declared enemy as America,

1247
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:38,840
Speaker 2: they're changing it to South Korea. They actually have a

1248
00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:41,759
Speaker 2: huge influx of dollars into the North Korean economy right

1249
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:44,399
Speaker 2: now because the Russians are buying so many weapons from them.

1250
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:48,319
Speaker 2: They appear, according to some military analysts and others, to

1251
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 2: be preparing for some sort of war in the region.

1252
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 2: And the reason why that matters is that if there

1253
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:55,960
Speaker 2: was some sort of conflict with Taiwan. South Korea is

1254
00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 2: one of the world's largest and most advanced militaries, and

1255
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:02,400
Speaker 2: they make a lot of weapons weapons manufacturer for the

1256
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 2: United States, it could be possible that he's gotten either

1257
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:08,120
Speaker 2: or not or some sort of edge from Beijing, which

1258
00:57:08,160 --> 00:57:09,840
Speaker 2: is their main partner. They're like, hey, you need to

1259
00:57:09,920 --> 00:57:12,640
Speaker 2: keep South Korea or whatever busy. They also can, you know,

1260
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:16,440
Speaker 2: cause major problems for Japan. Remember too, you know, we

1261
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:19,280
Speaker 2: are the characters of security for Japan and for South Korea,

1262
00:57:19,400 --> 00:57:21,919
Speaker 2: which are also in that top ten trading partner list.

1263
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 2: So everything I'm listening here is like genuinely really terrifying.

1264
00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:29,760
Speaker 2: I think from an overall US perspective, and I think

1265
00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 2: you're totally right, which is that America is distracted at home,

1266
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:36,320
Speaker 2: America is overstretched abroad, and I mean it's a talking point,

1267
00:57:36,320 --> 00:57:39,600
Speaker 2: but it's also actually true. And then in terms of

1268
00:57:39,600 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 2: our manufacturing base, I mean, they're not stupid. We lived

1269
00:57:43,640 --> 00:57:46,720
Speaker 2: through COVID, which is their fault, and they still are

1270
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:49,680
Speaker 2: the ones who sold us our masks at all of

1271
00:57:48,760 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 2: the medicines and everything, it all came straight from them.

1272
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 2: So they even know and see our critical manufacturing deficit

1273
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 2: and it's not you know, in nine Team thirty nine

1274
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:03,640
Speaker 2: and through Night forty one, there was a major debate

1275
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:05,760
Speaker 2: in the Japanese war cabinet and they were like, well,

1276
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 2: if we attack them, can they really attack us?

1277
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:10,360
Speaker 3: And same with Hitler, you know the Nazis regime.

1278
00:58:10,400 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 2: They wrote up an internal report, they gave it to

1279
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:13,919
Speaker 2: Hitler and they're like, here's what we estimate what would

1280
00:58:13,960 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 2: happen if America came into the war, and he laughed

1281
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 2: at them.

1282
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:16,920
Speaker 3: He said, there's no way they can do this.

1283
00:58:17,160 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 2: It ended up actually dramatically understating what US manufacturing capacity is.

1284
00:58:22,040 --> 00:58:24,960
Speaker 2: This time around, they've been able to battle test that more.

1285
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 2: You can look Crystal at the Ukraine situation, at the

1286
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:30,240
Speaker 2: fact that there's a fire at a plant that makes artillery.

1287
00:58:30,240 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 2: We don't have any more artillery. We make one hundred

1288
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 2: thousand rounds in a month. We used to be able

1289
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:35,920
Speaker 2: to make two million in a year. I mean, just

1290
00:58:36,480 --> 00:58:38,120
Speaker 2: look at the scale of that. It was only thirty

1291
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:40,000
Speaker 2: years ago. You look at the way that we have cars.

1292
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 2: I mean, do you know you had semiconductors shut down

1293
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:45,760
Speaker 2: all new cars in America? And I've talked about here

1294
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:47,840
Speaker 2: with the prospects all that stuff would look like if

1295
00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:50,160
Speaker 2: there was some some sort of conflagration, we could go

1296
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:52,760
Speaker 2: back to rationing systems. They could take our laptops, our

1297
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 2: camera equipment away from us and dig all the chips

1298
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 2: out of this, just like the Russians have done. That's

1299
00:58:57,160 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 2: how Dyer thinks a goat and not that far you know,

1300
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:02,280
Speaker 2: for the time line. So anyway, we're preparing, we're preparing

1301
00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:05,320
Speaker 2: people just to say, the Taiwanese people have made.

1302
00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 3: Their choice, as is their right.

1303
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 2: I support their right to do so, but you know,

1304
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 2: the results, the results of that election could certainly have big,

1305
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:14,240
Speaker 2: big impacts on us well.

1306
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:16,960
Speaker 1: And the last thing I'll say on this particular topic is.

1307
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:20,400
Speaker 1: You know, I don't think that the US is impotent

1308
00:59:20,520 --> 00:59:24,040
Speaker 1: with regards to Israel's government, given all the aid we

1309
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:27,600
Speaker 1: send them and all that we do diplomatically to provide

1310
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 1: cover for them. However, the Biden administration has decided to

1311
00:59:31,520 --> 00:59:35,880
Speaker 1: adopt this posture of impotence, of feigned impotence on the

1312
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 1: global stage. Sure of like, sure we shift them all

1313
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 1: this money, but they just won't listen to us. We're trying,

1314
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:44,320
Speaker 1: et cetera, like we really want them to do things differently,

1315
00:59:44,440 --> 00:59:47,520
Speaker 1: but they just won't. So they are publicly declaring to

1316
00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:50,440
Speaker 1: the world that they can't. We can't even influence like

1317
00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:53,200
Speaker 1: this country that was like our client state that we

1318
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:55,880
Speaker 1: fund to the tune of tens of billions of dollars

1319
00:59:55,920 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 1: every freaking year. So how does that look also on

1320
00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:03,120
Speaker 1: the global state. And by the way, like bottom line is,

1321
01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:09,280
Speaker 1: these are delicate, complicated situations. The failures and the vulnerabilities

1322
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:14,400
Speaker 1: were created over successive administrations, both bipartisan, Democrat and Republican.

1323
01:00:14,720 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 1: But we are led by moronic psychopaths and I have

1324
01:00:18,840 --> 01:00:22,240
Speaker 1: zero confidence in their ability to get us through this

1325
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:26,520
Speaker 1: in any sort of a peaceful, non catastrophic manner. So

1326
01:00:26,800 --> 01:00:29,560
Speaker 1: that's the reason that you should feel terrified. You know,

1327
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:31,959
Speaker 1: you can't have confidence in these people when you see

1328
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:33,480
Speaker 1: the way that they operate around the globe.

1329
01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:36,480
Speaker 2: The Israel situation is very analogous because obviously we gave

1330
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:38,360
Speaker 2: a lot of money to Taiwan. Yeah, they only spend

1331
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:40,640
Speaker 2: two point six percent of their GDP on national defense.

1332
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:43,440
Speaker 2: They basically openly have said they're like, look, if we

1333
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:45,560
Speaker 2: get into a problem, it's going to be America that's

1334
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:46,720
Speaker 2: going to save us. I mean, I had a lot

1335
01:00:46,720 --> 01:00:49,800
Speaker 2: of issues with that, and because it's like, hey, if

1336
01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:52,480
Speaker 2: you think you're imminiately going to get invaded and you're you're,

1337
01:00:52,800 --> 01:00:57,920
Speaker 2: you know, a Western style, developed, high tech democracy, you

1338
01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:00,400
Speaker 2: should spend a lot more money on West but to

1339
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:03,520
Speaker 2: actually do something for yourself. But we never pressure them

1340
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:06,000
Speaker 2: to do it. That's the Biden doctrine. He's like, yeah,

1341
01:01:06,080 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 2: don't worry, we'll take care of it. But then you know,

1342
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 2: we're also sending some stuff that would be useful to

1343
01:01:10,040 --> 01:01:11,160
Speaker 2: Taiwan to Ukraine.

1344
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:12,840
Speaker 3: It's like we have major trade offs.

1345
01:01:12,840 --> 01:01:15,280
Speaker 2: As you said, like there's the level of seriousness that

1346
01:01:15,320 --> 01:01:17,600
Speaker 2: would you would need to approach this conflict and get

1347
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:21,160
Speaker 2: out properly. On the other side is one of confidence

1348
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:23,360
Speaker 2: that we have not seen in this country in literally decades.

1349
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:26,360
Speaker 1: We are run by people who think it's a good

1350
01:01:26,360 --> 01:01:29,120
Speaker 1: idea to quote escalate to de escalate, who think that

1351
01:01:29,160 --> 01:01:32,160
Speaker 1: you can bomb the Huthies who have been bombed now

1352
01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:35,120
Speaker 1: for years and have not submitted, and that this is

1353
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:37,720
Speaker 1: going to improve the situation on the Red Sea instead

1354
01:01:37,720 --> 01:01:40,240
Speaker 1: of just turning it into a war zone and further

1355
01:01:40,360 --> 01:01:43,040
Speaker 1: deterring trade, which was supposedly the whole goal of what

1356
01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:45,720
Speaker 1: you're doing here. So, I mean, that's the reason why

1357
01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 1: all of these things are so deeply concerning is there

1358
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 1: is just I have zero confidence in our leadership, whether

1359
01:01:52,400 --> 01:01:55,720
Speaker 1: it's Biden, whether it's Trump, or anybody else who's a

1360
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 1: potential contender, Nikki Haley right, God forbid, we'd be going

1361
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 1: to war with China tomorrow if it was up to her.

1362
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:04,800
Speaker 1: And Iran, by the way. So that's the reason why

1363
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:07,400
Speaker 1: this is so concerning, is because you can see the

1364
01:02:07,440 --> 01:02:12,600
Speaker 1: way that US officials now and over years, every opportunity

1365
01:02:12,680 --> 01:02:15,480
Speaker 1: to make the wrong choice, they make the wrong choice.

1366
01:02:15,520 --> 01:02:18,000
Speaker 2: Well said, there's a little bit more on China. Just

1367
01:02:18,080 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 2: to put this up there on the screen. This is

1368
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:20,600
Speaker 2: a point that I know a lot of you been

1369
01:02:20,640 --> 01:02:22,960
Speaker 2: interested in Peter Zihon been talking about it for quite

1370
01:02:23,080 --> 01:02:24,760
Speaker 2: some time. I do gotta say it was one of

1371
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:26,960
Speaker 2: the first people I ever talked I heard speak about this.

1372
01:02:27,160 --> 01:02:28,760
Speaker 2: I didn't really believe it at the time, but he

1373
01:02:28,880 --> 01:02:31,880
Speaker 2: was dead on. The Chinese population now has fallen for

1374
01:02:31,920 --> 01:02:35,240
Speaker 2: a second straight year, Bert's dropping even after the end

1375
01:02:35,480 --> 01:02:37,760
Speaker 2: of the one child policy. The number of deaths in

1376
01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:41,240
Speaker 2: China rose by six hundred and ninety thousand to eleven

1377
01:02:41,280 --> 01:02:44,880
Speaker 2: point one million, which is more than double the last

1378
01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:45,600
Speaker 2: year increase.

1379
01:02:45,880 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 3: Quote.

1380
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 2: Demographers said that the rise was driven by the aging

1381
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:52,840
Speaker 2: of the population as well as widespread COVID outbreaks from

1382
01:02:52,880 --> 01:02:56,680
Speaker 2: December twenty twenty two into February of last year. The

1383
01:02:56,720 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 2: total population of China at one point four billion, has

1384
01:02:59,800 --> 01:03:02,760
Speaker 2: now dropped to second place behind India according to the

1385
01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:06,520
Speaker 2: overall un estimate, and the major flashing red signal inside

1386
01:03:06,600 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 2: Chinese society is the falling birth rate and the long

1387
01:03:09,840 --> 01:03:14,480
Speaker 2: term economic societal decline. Chinese economy was built on a

1388
01:03:14,680 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 2: major increasing consumer like market and sentiment, and if you

1389
01:03:18,800 --> 01:03:21,080
Speaker 2: don't have more consumers, then you can't have more of

1390
01:03:21,120 --> 01:03:23,800
Speaker 2: a market. The problem that they have is that you

1391
01:03:23,920 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 2: have major middle class promises and others that were built

1392
01:03:27,200 --> 01:03:31,960
Speaker 2: upon demography overall increasing, and now the massive effects the

1393
01:03:32,000 --> 01:03:35,800
Speaker 2: tail end of the one child policy, the gender imbalance,

1394
01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:39,400
Speaker 2: the economic imbalance, and now their foreign policy plus COVID

1395
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 2: and all of that has made a significant impact to

1396
01:03:42,280 --> 01:03:45,600
Speaker 2: the point where this is probably the single biggest thing

1397
01:03:45,680 --> 01:03:48,360
Speaker 2: that they are thinking about about how to reverse the

1398
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,400
Speaker 2: effects of the one child policy. And just to show you,

1399
01:03:51,400 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 2: you know, the economic problems that they're facing are one

1400
01:03:54,560 --> 01:03:56,720
Speaker 2: and the same with their demography ones.

1401
01:03:56,800 --> 01:03:57,600
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there.

1402
01:03:57,720 --> 01:04:02,960
Speaker 2: So for example, the overall economy rebounded from three percent

1403
01:04:02,960 --> 01:04:05,520
Speaker 2: growth in twenty twenty two, which happened because of zero

1404
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:08,680
Speaker 2: COVID China according to the official number. Remember the official

1405
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 2: number is five point two. But what they say is

1406
01:04:11,960 --> 01:04:15,800
Speaker 2: that other economic data shows that there's major weakening demand

1407
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:19,400
Speaker 2: for Chinese products, which long term is a major problem

1408
01:04:19,400 --> 01:04:22,040
Speaker 2: for them. On top of that, you have to remember

1409
01:04:22,280 --> 01:04:24,640
Speaker 2: property and home prices in China, which we covered a

1410
01:04:24,680 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 2: little bit during the whole evergrand thing, is a huge

1411
01:04:27,080 --> 01:04:31,120
Speaker 2: portion of their overall economy. They are rapidly declining with

1412
01:04:31,760 --> 01:04:35,400
Speaker 2: major bankruptcies and corruption investigations that are happening in the

1413
01:04:35,440 --> 01:04:39,080
Speaker 2: property sector, making the middle class dream, the Chinese dreams

1414
01:04:39,080 --> 01:04:41,720
Speaker 2: so quote unquote that most of the current generation and

1415
01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:45,440
Speaker 2: their parents really banked on not nearly as attainable. Corruption

1416
01:04:45,640 --> 01:04:49,480
Speaker 2: is still widespread. Then you had zero COVID, which devastated

1417
01:04:49,680 --> 01:04:51,840
Speaker 2: a lot of the economy, actually called into question some

1418
01:04:51,960 --> 01:04:54,720
Speaker 2: confidence in the government who saw a few protests and

1419
01:04:54,760 --> 01:04:57,200
Speaker 2: all of that there, but still incredibly rare. And really

1420
01:04:57,280 --> 01:04:59,440
Speaker 2: what we saw is that g at every turn has

1421
01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:04,160
Speaker 2: chosen a their authoritarianism over capitalism, which probably good for

1422
01:05:04,280 --> 01:05:07,440
Speaker 2: him in the long run, but not necessarily good for

1423
01:05:07,520 --> 01:05:11,080
Speaker 2: the economy. And it makes it so that this just

1424
01:05:11,080 --> 01:05:14,520
Speaker 2: a link back to Taiwan, which we were talking about earlier. Whenever,

1425
01:05:14,680 --> 01:05:18,080
Speaker 2: like nations, there's a common theory that like nations lash

1426
01:05:18,120 --> 01:05:20,880
Speaker 2: out and invade when they're on top, that happens sometimes

1427
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:22,640
Speaker 2: kind of like America and the Gulf War.

1428
01:05:22,800 --> 01:05:24,760
Speaker 3: We're like, listen, we can do whatever we want, like

1429
01:05:24,760 --> 01:05:25,320
Speaker 3: that happens.

1430
01:05:25,440 --> 01:05:28,040
Speaker 2: But there's also a very likely story of when you're

1431
01:05:28,080 --> 01:05:30,240
Speaker 2: on the downswing, and you know you're on the downswing,

1432
01:05:30,560 --> 01:05:33,840
Speaker 2: you want to move when you're as close to where

1433
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:37,080
Speaker 2: you're faltering as supposed when you're at the bottom, and

1434
01:05:37,160 --> 01:05:39,720
Speaker 2: it leads to an urgency and you're thinking where you're like, listen,

1435
01:05:39,760 --> 01:05:43,240
Speaker 2: our economies declining, our population, all of this, if we're

1436
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:45,160
Speaker 2: going to reunify Taiwan, if we're going to set up

1437
01:05:45,160 --> 01:05:47,600
Speaker 2: this nation which they look at themselves as a two

1438
01:05:47,640 --> 01:05:50,280
Speaker 2: thousand year old people for eternity and to move on

1439
01:05:50,640 --> 01:05:54,200
Speaker 2: forever and have this CCP like cemented in that same

1440
01:05:54,520 --> 01:05:57,080
Speaker 2: way that you would look at older Chinese empires.

1441
01:05:57,160 --> 01:05:58,840
Speaker 3: Well, we need to do it right now.

1442
01:05:58,960 --> 01:06:00,640
Speaker 2: They have a much longer time scale and the way

1443
01:06:00,640 --> 01:06:02,320
Speaker 2: they think of their own history and their own role

1444
01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:04,600
Speaker 2: in it. And for them, like they've seen this story

1445
01:06:04,600 --> 01:06:07,440
Speaker 2: many many times before. They don't want to repeat the

1446
01:06:07,480 --> 01:06:10,479
Speaker 2: century of humiliation of the eighteen hundreds, and this could

1447
01:06:10,480 --> 01:06:11,240
Speaker 2: be in their head.

1448
01:06:11,480 --> 01:06:13,200
Speaker 3: The time when you want to act is now.

1449
01:06:13,280 --> 01:06:15,880
Speaker 2: So all of this, you know, actually links back to

1450
01:06:16,040 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 2: the urgency of the international situation and kind of what

1451
01:06:18,480 --> 01:06:21,040
Speaker 2: they want to do to cement their own legacy as

1452
01:06:21,040 --> 01:06:21,600
Speaker 2: we look forward.

1453
01:06:21,640 --> 01:06:24,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. I mean to overly simplify things. You know,

1454
01:06:24,640 --> 01:06:27,840
Speaker 1: the incredible growth story of China has been built on this,

1455
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:31,120
Speaker 1: you know, massive industrialization, you know, building out all this

1456
01:06:31,200 --> 01:06:35,320
Speaker 1: factory capacity, building out massively all of this infrastructure to

1457
01:06:35,360 --> 01:06:37,080
Speaker 1: the point that it you know, became like some of

1458
01:06:37,080 --> 01:06:39,160
Speaker 1: the projects became sort of ridiculous. Then now you can

1459
01:06:39,200 --> 01:06:40,800
Speaker 1: go and look at like the number of airports in

1460
01:06:40,840 --> 01:06:43,160
Speaker 1: these towns that don't really need airports and things like that.

1461
01:06:43,280 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 1: So fake villages, right, So that running away has sort

1462
01:06:46,160 --> 01:06:47,920
Speaker 1: of run out. And then the next piece was the

1463
01:06:47,960 --> 01:06:50,920
Speaker 1: property boom and you know, building out all of this

1464
01:06:51,280 --> 01:06:54,200
Speaker 1: residential real estate and not becoming like a real you know,

1465
01:06:54,280 --> 01:06:57,520
Speaker 1: part of like Chinese middle class identity, and that there's

1466
01:06:57,680 --> 01:06:59,480
Speaker 1: that has sort of run out of runway. And now

1467
01:06:59,520 --> 01:07:02,400
Speaker 1: we've covered all these stories about Evergran and this property bust,

1468
01:07:02,680 --> 01:07:05,360
Speaker 1: and so you know, the next thing would be, all right, well,

1469
01:07:05,360 --> 01:07:08,320
Speaker 1: we're going to move into like the US consumer economy

1470
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:11,880
Speaker 1: mode and focus on services, focus on you know, our

1471
01:07:11,920 --> 01:07:15,360
Speaker 1: own domestic economy, buying more crap basically, and they've sort

1472
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:19,760
Speaker 1: of rejected that direction. So I think there is a

1473
01:07:19,840 --> 01:07:22,920
Speaker 1: real awareness, both in terms of where they stand economically

1474
01:07:23,000 --> 01:07:25,160
Speaker 1: and in terms of where they stand from demography, that

1475
01:07:25,200 --> 01:07:27,919
Speaker 1: this could be very much be the peak of their

1476
01:07:28,200 --> 01:07:31,440
Speaker 1: you know, potential power and potential influence. So that again

1477
01:07:31,560 --> 01:07:33,560
Speaker 1: raises the risk that they may see it as like

1478
01:07:33,680 --> 01:07:35,320
Speaker 1: you know, they've made no secret about the fact that

1479
01:07:35,360 --> 01:07:37,680
Speaker 1: they want to reunify with Taiwan, that they.

1480
01:07:37,560 --> 01:07:39,600
Speaker 3: Made a pledge that they will do it. That is yeah.

1481
01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:42,400
Speaker 1: I mean, that's not like, you know, a secret wish.

1482
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:44,560
Speaker 1: That's very much out there in the open and spoken

1483
01:07:44,560 --> 01:07:47,280
Speaker 1: publicly all the time. So the question is just a

1484
01:07:47,320 --> 01:07:49,960
Speaker 1: matter of timing. And you know, I can't get inside

1485
01:07:49,960 --> 01:07:51,680
Speaker 1: their has I have no idea what they're thinking, whether

1486
01:07:51,720 --> 01:07:53,360
Speaker 1: they feel like now is the right time or not,

1487
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:56,640
Speaker 1: But there are some indications that it's possible. They look

1488
01:07:56,680 --> 01:07:58,520
Speaker 1: at this chessboard and they say, you know what, we

1489
01:07:58,520 --> 01:07:59,919
Speaker 1: could do worse than to act right now.

1490
01:08:00,040 --> 01:08:00,200
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1491
01:08:00,200 --> 01:08:00,680
Speaker 3: Absolutely.

1492
01:08:00,760 --> 01:08:02,400
Speaker 2: I mean, if I think about it from their perspective,

1493
01:08:02,400 --> 01:08:03,880
Speaker 2: when's the best time to go? When we're in the

1494
01:08:03,880 --> 01:08:05,840
Speaker 2: middle of an election and there's all kinds of craziness

1495
01:08:05,920 --> 01:08:08,960
Speaker 2: going on, We're stretched, you know, militarily abroad. We've got

1496
01:08:08,960 --> 01:08:11,640
Speaker 2: the Ukraine situation, the Israel situation.

1497
01:08:11,840 --> 01:08:12,280
Speaker 3: All of that.

1498
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:14,520
Speaker 2: You've got multiple carriers, you know, in the Middle East,

1499
01:08:14,600 --> 01:08:17,559
Speaker 2: you have all of scentcom which is like focusing on international,

1500
01:08:17,560 --> 01:08:18,240
Speaker 2: hoothy targets.

1501
01:08:18,240 --> 01:08:19,560
Speaker 3: That's exactly whenever.

1502
01:08:19,320 --> 01:08:22,599
Speaker 1: You want in a country that's deeply, deeply divided, deeply,

1503
01:08:22,640 --> 01:08:26,680
Speaker 1: divided along like very hard partisan lines. So yeah, we'll

1504
01:08:26,720 --> 01:08:28,080
Speaker 1: see scary situation