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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now Dinas Fandier, who is with Bloomberg and

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Speaker 2: Guni economics, and she has had the privilege of studying

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Speaker 2: with Lawrence Freeman.

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Speaker 3: What was that like, Diana, You wander.

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Speaker 2: In the door at King's College and it's literally like

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Speaker 2: you're talking to the Adam Smith or war studies.

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Speaker 1: First, thanks for having me. You know, you don't know

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Speaker 1: better than to just be excited and appreciate that you

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Speaker 1: were studying with some pretty great people, and then really

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Speaker 1: appreciate the mentorship that they give you, which is what

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Speaker 1: I call.

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Speaker 3: This war that we're in. It's on the cover of

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Speaker 3: the New York Times.

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Speaker 2: There's maps that you look at him and all that, Dina,

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Speaker 2: have you ever seen?

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Speaker 3: I mean, this is not like Kuwait, It's not like Iraq.

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Speaker 3: There's something different about this Iran affair. Of the President

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Speaker 3: discuss so.

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Speaker 1: Much to say so little time. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think I think the Iran issue has historically been

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Speaker 1: a real unifying issue in the United States, which is

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Speaker 1: odd given that the US political leads are pretty much

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Speaker 1: split on absolutely everything. Iran tends to unify them. Although

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Speaker 1: I think Trump's desire or at least build up and

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Speaker 1: steps towards war is beginning to kind of chip away

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Speaker 1: at that unified elite. So I think there's that element

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Speaker 1: of it. And then I think there's the element of

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Speaker 1: the build up. Right. The build up is the military

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Speaker 1: build up. The US military build up in the region

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Speaker 1: is really consequential, It's really significant. It's unlike anything that

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Speaker 1: we've seen in the past before. Is it really intended

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Speaker 1: to go to war or is it intended to scare

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Speaker 1: the Iranians to the negotiating table. I think there's an

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Speaker 1: element of both. But the risk, of course, is that

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Speaker 1: the build up is so significant that unless Trump gets

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Speaker 1: everything he wants out of an agreement with the Iranians,

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Speaker 1: he's going to have to use it to justify that

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Speaker 1: build up.

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Speaker 4: Dina. I think, as you mentioned, the build up of

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Speaker 4: military capabilities in that part of the world's uh substantial.

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Speaker 4: Do we know what the US strategy is? What does

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Speaker 4: the US want here from Iranda? That seems to be

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Speaker 4: unclear for a lot of folks.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that is the million dollar question. What are

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Speaker 1: the objectives of what the United States is doing right now?

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Speaker 1: It started out, as you know, we had to find

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Speaker 1: a way to contain or roll back around's nuclear program.

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Speaker 1: Then for some people in the United States, it became

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Speaker 1: about regime change, then it returned back to the nuclear program.

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Speaker 1: It's really really unclear, and the reason for that is

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Speaker 1: I think the administration itself is unclear on what its

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Speaker 1: objectives are. I think there's an element of opportunism right now, Okay,

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Speaker 1: there's an opportunity.

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Speaker 3: How are the generals in the admirles like the pro

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Speaker 3: who this like you do they feel left from where

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Speaker 3: you sit? Is this being run off the desk of

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Speaker 3: the president in the Oval office or is there actually

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Speaker 3: a discussion of normal planning of a conflict or a

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Speaker 3: war in the process of war studies.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's impossible to go to war

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Speaker 1: without at least having a conversation with the generals. And

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Speaker 1: in fact, it's been reported that President Trump has been

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Speaker 1: briefed on the military options when it comes to Iran,

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Speaker 1: and part of that briefing in conversation is actually why

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Speaker 1: Trump didn't go to war with Iran in January when

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Speaker 1: the protests were happening and when he promised to send help.

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Speaker 1: Because I think the briefing from the generals really frightened

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Speaker 1: him and pushed him to build his capabilities up first.

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Speaker 3: That's the smartest thing I've heard, Paul.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm sorry, but you know, forget about all

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Speaker 2: of our parents were riveted and molded.

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Speaker 3: By Pearl Harbor November of nineteen seventy nine. Sure was

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Speaker 3: a problem, Yeah, the extra sent missile on the Falklands,

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Speaker 3: there was a problem. Where's the problem here given what

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Speaker 3: we see in those maps? I don't know.

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Speaker 4: So indeed, what is the role that Israel is playing

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Speaker 4: in this situation? Other allies, perhaps other players in the

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Speaker 4: Middle East? Is it just the US and Iran with

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Speaker 4: this stare off here? What are the others doing?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think the main players are definitely the

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Speaker 1: US and Iran, and the main decision maker on this

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Speaker 1: front right now really is President Trump. But I think

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Speaker 1: Israel is playing a huge role in trying to sway

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Speaker 1: Trump and trying to really convince him either to go

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Speaker 1: to war or to have a very maximalist position in

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Speaker 1: the nuclear negotiations. And bizarrely, compared to a few years

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Speaker 1: ago when the first nuclear deal was being negotiated, it's

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Speaker 1: the US's Gulf Arab partners that are actually urging restraint

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Speaker 1: that are saying we don't want war because we don't

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Speaker 1: know what will happen once the fighting starts.

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Speaker 2: Oh, Dina, that's right where we wanted to go. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you know, did you study the American Civil War, Dana

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Speaker 2: at King's College?

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Speaker 3: Or is it just a very little, very little okay?

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Speaker 3: July eighteen sixty one, first Battle of bull Run. The

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Speaker 3: socialites of Washington went out to watch the battle because

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Speaker 3: it was going to be a short little skirmish. America

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Speaker 3: after Iraq, America after Afghanistan is jaded about short little skirmishes.

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Speaker 3: Do you assume if something happens this weekend, whatever, the

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Speaker 3: President decides that this is some form of short little skirmish,

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Speaker 3: or do we end up with a bull Run like

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Speaker 3: the American Civil War for five six years.

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Speaker 1: I think if you had asked me this question six

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Speaker 1: months ago, seven months ago, I would have said, I

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Speaker 1: think there's a chance we can keep it short because

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Speaker 1: the Iranians don't want to escalate further. They don't want

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Speaker 1: to fight a war there they know they're going to lose.

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Speaker 1: I think today the issue is really existential for Iran,

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Speaker 1: so they have no incentive to not escalate. Their incentive

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Speaker 1: is the it escalate through everything we have at the

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Speaker 1: problem and see what we can do how to get

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Speaker 1: the US bogged down further in the region, impact oil

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Speaker 1: markets by shooting at oil and energy infrastructure in the region,

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Speaker 1: potentially closing the straits and marmous and once that happens,

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Speaker 1: it's absolutely impossible to keep this short.

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Speaker 4: So, Dina, I guess if we step back and say,

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Speaker 4: perhaps a strategy for the US would be regime change,

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Speaker 4: because anything short of that seems inconsequential relative to the

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Speaker 4: assets that are being deployed there.

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Speaker 1: Well, for sure, that could be an option, but then

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Speaker 1: the problem is the assets that are deployed there are

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Speaker 1: not enough. It's going to be virtually impossible to change

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Speaker 1: the system from overhead. You're going to have to put

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Speaker 1: boots on the ground. And I don't think any American

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Speaker 1: president wants to put boots on the ground.

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Speaker 4: And I wrong, yeah, absolutely so, I mean, again, what's

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Speaker 4: the next step you're looking for, Dina.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for the beginning of that conflict. I think

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Speaker 1: sadly everybody has cornered themselves into that first air strike happening,

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Speaker 1: and then we'll be looking at how does it run escalate.

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Speaker 1: Does it go all out immediately or does it do

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Speaker 1: it step by step? I think my sense is that

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Speaker 1: it will be a pretty rapid escalation, and then it

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Speaker 1: becomes really difficult to say what will happen next.

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Speaker 2: Dina, thank you so much for your work. Really really

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Speaker 2: appreciated this morning. Will be in touch with this all

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Speaker 2: week and Joe Matthew and Kaylie Lynes leading our covers.

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Speaker 3: Look for that.

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Speaker 2: At twelve noon, Dina Esfondieri Middle East Gion Economics lead

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Speaker 2: for Bloomberg Economics