WEBVTT - Solar and batteries are thriving — even in Trump’s America 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:03.840 The US renewables industry is dead, killed by a president 0:00:04.000 --> 0:00:07.800 who hates wind turbines and loves supporting the fossil fuel industry. 0:00:08.480 --> 0:00:10.960 That's the narrative we often hear coming out of the 0:00:11.080 --> 0:00:14.840 US right now. But is it true? This is zero? 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:18.639 I am Akshadrati this week. What's really happening to the 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:27.720 renewables industry in the US. President Donald Trump's administration has 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:30.600 taken a big swipe at clean energy policies in the US, 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:34.280 gutting tax credits for wind and solar, removing subsidies for 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:38.360 electric cars, and even using taxpayer dollars to haul the 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:42.479 development of offshore wind farms. That has certainly heard the country's 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:46.519 clean energy credentials, But if you look at the deployment figures, 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:51.480 renewables are still winning. Ninety percent of all new power 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:54.600 generating capacity added to the grid last year was made 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:58.080 up of solar, wind, and batteries. The same thing is 0:00:58.120 --> 0:01:03.240 expected to happen this year. So why the discrepancy between 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:06.880 the narrative and the deployment One place we can try 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:09.679 to find an answer is in the US state of Arkansas. 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:12.720 It is now home to the Steel River Energy Center, 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.440 which will become one of the largest solar and battery 0:01:15.440 --> 0:01:19.440 storage projects anywhere in the US. When all three phases 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.360 are completed in twenty twenty nine, it will have two 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:25.640 point five gigawards of solar and two point nine gigaward 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:29.959 hours of battery storage. That plant alone will be enough 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:33.520 to power a small city. My guest today is playing 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:37.360 a leading role in that building Frenzy, having secured three 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:41.280 point five billion dollars in financing. His name is Kevin Smith, 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:45.399 and he's the chief executive officer of Cypress Creek Energy. 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:47.920 He spent the last two decades working in renewables in 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:51.400 the US and abroad, and he believes everything points to 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:55.120 a future powered by solar and batteries even in the US. 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:58.840 But given the barriers that the Trump administration has put up, 0:01:59.040 --> 0:02:02.800 can that really happen? The government keeps raising tariffs in China, 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:06.800 does it have enough of its own manufacturing capacity for 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:11.440 clean energy? And do companies building artificial intelligence, the core 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:15.359 reason for rising electricity demand in the US, really care 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:21.040 if it comes from renewables. Welcome to the show, Kevin, 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:22.079 Thank you very much. 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:22.960 It's nice to be here. 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:26.200 So you've been in the energy industry for forty years, 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:29.560 two decades in oil and gas, and then the last 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:32.760 two decades in renewables, and you've seen many ups and 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:37.440 downs in both industries in the US specifically, right now, 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:42.560 the narrative is that the US renewables industry is under 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:45.840 attack from the Trump administration and the future for the 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:49.000 industry is dire than it has ever been before. 0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:52.080 Is it true, Well, the first part is true, the 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:56.079 second part is not true. So certainly the industry has 0:02:56.120 --> 0:03:00.320 been under attack by the administration. Frankly with them and 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:05.320 struggling to pay their electric bills. Doesn't make sense to 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:09.720 be attacking the most affordable energy cost out there with 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:15.680 solar and renewables generally, So, yes, the industry has been 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:19.240 has been under attack with policy changes and policy issues 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:20.559 with the administration. 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:22.760 However, the industry is thriving. 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:26.400 If you look at twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six, 0:03:27.919 --> 0:03:31.080 you know upwards to ninety percent of all new generation 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:37.360 is renewables, primarily solar and battery storage has been upwards 0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:42.400 to eighty percent of new generation is solar and battery storage, 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:46.800 and largely that's because it's the most affordable cost of energy. 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:50.200 And so right now you know the deployment figures do 0:03:50.320 --> 0:03:53.480 reach this record. But one of the reasons why we 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:56.080 are seeing a sped up deployment in twenty twenty five 0:03:56.120 --> 0:03:59.280 and twenty twenty six is because there were these tax 0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:01.960 credits that are supposed to expire. So from July for 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:06.800 twenty twenty six, if your solo plant is not under construction, 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:11.160 you are not going to be getting US government credits. 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:13.520 Is the boom then over? 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:15.240 No, not at all. 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:19.400 And in reality, the you know, projects to qualify for 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:22.960 the tax credits, you know, have certain conditions where they 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:25.799 can qualify for starter construction. They need to be in 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:29.840 inter commercial operation by the end of twenty thirty, so 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:33.360 we have you know, a number more years of where 0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:37.040 tax credits will be applied, and frankly that helps keep 0:04:37.320 --> 0:04:40.560 you know, electricity prices down. My view is with or 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:43.039 without tax credits, and I think the industry's view is 0:04:43.040 --> 0:04:46.120 with or without tax credits, we're the most competitive source 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:47.719 of electricity out there. 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:52.240 You take away the tax credits, it raises the cost. 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:57.480 Of the most affordable electricity price, but we're still you know, 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:01.400 much more competitive than the natural game, or certainly more 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:04.440 competitive than nuclear new nuclear or new coal. 0:05:05.480 --> 0:05:08.640 But I'm looking at bloomerg en ef forecasts for solar 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:12.200 for example, and they peak in twenty twenty six and 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:15.600 start to decline all the way till twenty thirty one 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:19.080 and only really reach the twenty twenty six levels in 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:21.480 twenty thirty two. So there is a decline. It's not 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:23.919 like it's going to zero. It's going from something like 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:27.200 fifty gig awards built, which includes all types of solar 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:30.040 by the way, down to forty gigawats and then back 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:32.960 up to fifty in six years time. But there is 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:33.960 a decline, right. 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:36.839 Well, I mean you could argue whether it's the decline 0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:38.799 or whether we have this you know, kind of short 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:44.559 term boom that's resulting in an increase in renewables for 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:46.919 a short period of time while the tax credits are 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:49.839 still in effect, and then it goes back now down 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:52.440 to a normal level. I mean even the normal level, 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:53.920 I mean forty gigawatts a year. 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:57.040 You know, if a decade ago you said. 0:05:56.800 --> 0:05:58.800 We're going to build forty gigawottes a year of when 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:02.480 when we're building a tenth of that, it would be 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:05.040 kind of an amazing figure to look at. So foty 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:09.560 gigawatts a year is you know, one hundred billion dollars 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:13.719 of construction on renewable energy projects, which is tremendous amount 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:14.239 of growth. 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:16.599 So you've just signed this three and a half billion 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:21.440 dollar financingdea for one of US's biggest solar and battery projects. 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:25.800 Just put it in context. China, India, and even the 0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:29.719 UE have built far bigger projects, but for the US 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:32.320 it is one of the biggest. How long does it 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:33.440 take to build it? 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:36.640 It's about a two just over two year construction period. 0:06:36.640 --> 0:06:40.760 I mean the first phase will start generating electricity by 0:06:41.560 --> 0:06:45.680 say mid twenty twenty eight. The first two phases are 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:50.080 one point six gigawatts of solar PV and then one 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:54.160 point nine gigawatt hours of battery storage. 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:55.360 There's a third phase. 0:06:55.520 --> 0:06:58.080 They're kind of three equal phases, So there's a third 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.120 phase that we're hoping to start construction later this year 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:04.440 or early next. That third phase would be into operation 0:07:04.560 --> 0:07:06.040 by the end of twenty twenty nine. 0:07:06.240 --> 0:07:09.240 Where are the solar panels and batteries for these projects 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:09.920 coming from? 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:13.520 Solar panels are one hundred percent US made for solar, 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:17.080 so it's and they're you know for solo has some 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:21.280 overseas manufacturing. But these these these panels are one hundred 0:07:21.280 --> 0:07:24.360 percent main in the US. We're also quite proud that's 0:07:24.600 --> 0:07:27.320 that it's the vast majority of the steel is actually 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:30.240 being manufactured in Mississippi County, Arkansas. You know, we like 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:32.800 to refer to the project as built on Arkansas steel. 0:07:33.200 --> 0:07:36.800 The batteries are coming from LG and their US manufacturing 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:40.120 as well. You know, for those that think you can't 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:46.360 supply the renewable energy industry with US manufacturing, that's happening 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:48.600 as we speak. I mean, tens of billions of dollars 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:53.280 have been invested in US manufacturing and that's continuing to 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:57.960 supply and will continue to disupply US renewable energy projects 0:07:58.000 --> 0:07:59.280 for the foreseeable future. 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:03.960 And what about the battery metals that LG users to 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:06.960 be able to make those batteries. 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:09.600 Well that I mean there are some certainly there are 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:11.720 some components that are coming from overseas. 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:14.560 You know, I don't think. 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:18.440 You could pull look at one energy industry supply, whether 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:22.200 it's natural gas or nuclear or coal, and look at 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:25.200 and say, are one hundred percent of all components coming 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:28.600 from US manufacturers. I would like to think that renewable energy. 0:08:29.000 --> 0:08:31.640 You know, the percent of components that are coming from 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:35.880 US is greater than most of those other other electricity supply. 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:39.119 You know, a lot of the nuclear technology now is overseas. 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:43.160 Two out of the three main gas turbine manufacturers are overseas. 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:46.360 Like I said, I think renewable energy and solar and 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:51.320 battery storage specifically are being dominated by US components supply. 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:53.760 And you talked about the fact that you know, solar 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:56.400 and batteries are now the cheapest that can be offered 0:08:56.440 --> 0:09:00.360 to US consumers. How much cheaper would they be if 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:02.800 there were no restrictions on imports. 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:05.360 Well, if that would you know, I mean, we've got 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:08.360 two things happening. One is is that the tax credits 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.800 are being taken away, and you know, we're paying you know, 0:09:12.040 --> 0:09:16.600 probably for solar panels. We're probably in some cases paying 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:17.839 triple what the rest of. 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:18.680 The world is paying. 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:23.199 You know, you know, we're you know, panel prices right now, 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:25.840 Solar module prices are in the you know call it, 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:29.280 you know, thirty two to thirty eight cent range, depending 0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:33.360 on the time of year and who your supplier supplier is. 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:35.720 You know, the rest of the world can can get 0:09:36.679 --> 0:09:39.720 less expensive panels in the in the low teens twelve 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:44.199 thirteen cents a lot, and all that all that tariff 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:47.520 is being passed through to electricity consumers. So you and 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:49.679 I are paying that in our electricity bills. 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.480 Well I am based in london' so not me yet, but. 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:54.840 Certainly I pay it in my electricity bills. 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:57.440 All those tariffs are you know, have to be passed 0:09:57.480 --> 0:10:01.240 through into capital costs and passed through to electricity prices. 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:05.840 And what about batteries If you compare no imports with tariffs. 0:10:05.360 --> 0:10:08.760 On yeah, I mean we're similar issue. It's probably not triple. 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:12.160 I would probably say it's it's certainly close to double 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:16.439 what international projects are dealing with with regards to battery 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:20.760 costs because of the tariff issues. So, as I said, 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:24.559 that increases capital costs and it increases prices to consumers. 0:10:24.800 --> 0:10:27.360 A solar battery project right now is about twenty five 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:30.640 hundred dollars a killer. What in the US you said, roughly, 0:10:31.160 --> 0:10:36.120 if you take these reductions and tear away the trade barriers, 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:37.640 what could it come down to? 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:41.760 You're certainly probably under fifteen hundred, I would think. 0:10:41.640 --> 0:10:44.640 Given where the cost is today and where the trade 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:48.120 barriers are and where future looks like, which doesn't look 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:51.200 like it's going to come down anytime soon these trade barriers. 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:55.520 How does the pipeline for you and developers like you 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:56.440 look like today? 0:10:56.720 --> 0:11:00.120 Well, obviously, we have projects that we're proceeding with in 0:10:59.880 --> 0:11:02.400 the over the next several years that would qualify for 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:05.760 tax credits. As the tax credits start to roll off, 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:08.680 we're going to have to increase our electricity prices, you know. 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:13.679 So I like to talk generically about a sixty dollars 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:18.280 a megawat hour solar project today with tax credits, without 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:20.920 tax credits is probably more like eighty five or ninety 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:23.959 dollars a megawat hour. But you compare that against a 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:27.720 natural gas project combined cycle project with you know, top 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:30.600 of the line equipment, you know, high efficiency gas turbines, 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:33.000 you're probably in the one hundred and twenty to one 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:33.720 hundred and. 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:35.640 Forty dollars a megawatt hour range. 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:40.119 So we're still even with rolling off the tax credits 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:43.440 and with paying all these tariffs, we're still cheaper than 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:45.319 a natural gas combined cycle facility. 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:48.640 And so for this first phase of the Steel River 0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:52.120 Energy Center in Arkansas that you're building, where is the 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:54.840 electricity going to go. I'm assuming a data center. 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.640 In reality that that project is grid connected. Okay, so 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:01.200 we we sell a hundred percent of our electricity to 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:06.360 the grid. We have a i'll say a financial contract 0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:08.480 with a tech player that will. 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:10.240 Be announced next month. 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:15.520 But Entergy Arkansas is receiving all the energy under their 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:19.800 transmission system and they're distributing it across their network. Like 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:22.840 I said, we have a financial structure with a tech 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:25.600 player to give us a guarantee on the price that 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:27.040 we're getting for our electricity. 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:29.680 That's a bit more financial transaction. 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:32.520 The actual electrons are going to the grid and being 0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:34.280 distributed by Entergy Arkansas. 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:37.480 Seven eight years ago, you did an interview with CGTN 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.320 where you said, you know, India and China are building 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:42.640 a lot of renewables because those are the countries where 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:46.079 electricity demand is growing at seven eight percent, and when 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:49.280 there's growth, the industry grows. You can now say the 0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:52.600 same thing in the US for that electricity demand is 0:12:52.600 --> 0:12:54.920 now finally growing, maybe not eight percent, but it's growing 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:58.160 three four five percent, and a lot of that is 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:01.960 to do with AI and data centers. One thing that 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:06.440 we've seen in these data center stories is that these 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:09.880 companies want to build these data centers really quickly, and 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:12.400 then they want an uptime that is ninety nine point 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:14.920 nine percent of the time. Now, solar and batteries can 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:16.880 be built fast. You know, you're talking about two year 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:19.640 project to build one of the largest solar and battery 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.440 project in the US. But gas and batteries can keep 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:25.760 the uptime that they need, and right now it seems 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:30.400 like gas plus batteries are winning out. How can renewables 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:32.240 compete with those constraints. 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:36.520 I mean, that's interesting, interesting, I'll say statements in there. 0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:39.360 So there's a few things going on. One is my 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:42.960 view is the vast majority of data centers, if in 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:45.959 order to get ninety nine point nine nine nine or 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:50.400 even ninety nine point nine, really need to be grid connected. Okay, 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.920 so there are a number of projects. You know, we 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:57.760 had a debate internally about how many of those behind 0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:01.200 the meter projects we're getting built that we're off grid 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.240 and had this mix of gas and batteries and solar. 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:06.280 It's really kind of a handful. 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:10.320 Okay, The vast majority of data centers are in order 0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:12.440 to get that reliability, are going to need to be 0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:16.000 grid connected. With that as a backdrop that most of 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:19.400 them will be grid connected. Then solar and battery storage 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:22.400 is a great tool for the utilities to provide you know, 0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:26.200 affordable energy. They've got to mix you know, their own 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.320 base where where it includes a mix of fossil fuels 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:34.400 and nuclear and renewables to serve that load. So, you know, 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:38.400 and we are looking at, you know, for a data 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.600 center that does need a behind the meter solution, we 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:45.120 are looking at a mix of solar and battery storage 0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:49.040 and potentially some natural gas in there. But like I said, 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:53.320 my view is eighty percent plus of data centers that 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:54.960 go in are going to be grid connected. 0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:58.760 That might be true this year, next year, but it 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:02.360 looks like when I look again projections from bloomaginnyf's new 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:06.360 Energy Outlook that was just recently published purely at data 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:10.920 Center driven edition on the grid, it starts to become 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:14.720 gas heavy starting in twenty twenty seven all the way 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:18.240 to twenty thirty five. By twenty thirty five, we are 0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:22.520 looking at eighty to ninety percent of the additional power 0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:27.160 demand for data centers being met by gas. Are they wrong? 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:31.160 I've looked at other projections, you know, from the International 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:35.960 Energy Association from you know, the National Energy Resources from 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:40.800 you know, Wood Mackenzie. We're still seeing substantial amount of 0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:45.040 growth and supply from solar and battery stores. I mean 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:49.000 you you talked about forty gigawatts a year. Even five 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.800 years ago, forty gigawatts was would be viewed as a 0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:56.800 tremendous amount of growth in the solar space projections. 0:15:57.200 --> 0:15:59.560 Will be interesting to see how that all sorts itself out. 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:03.840 What's happening today, ninety percent of all new generation is 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:05.880 coming from renewables in battery storage. 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.080 Now will that change? 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:11.120 Yes, I believe there will be more natural gas put 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:14.040 on the under the system. But when you talk about 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:19.280 i'll say grid connected, you know nuclear and natural gas. 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:21.320 You know they need that one hundred and twenty one 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:25.200 hundred and forty dollars price round the clock. Okay, So 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:28.880 even when power prices drop to twenty or thirty dollars 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.240 in the middle of the night, and the grid could 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:35.880 provide very cost effective power because demand is low in 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:38.760 the middle of the night, that gas turbine project or 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.360 that nuclear project's got to continue to generate in. 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:44.400 Order to pay its off its its capital costs. 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:46.880 So this is where I think the global numbers and 0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:50.640 the US numbers actually diverge drastically. And you look at 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.560 a global picture, and the global picture certainly says that 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:55.520 a lot of the power demand will be met by 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.880 solar and batteries, a little bit of wind. But when 0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:02.400 it comes to the US, it's the only place, the 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:07.919 only large economy that is increasing its gas power load 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:10.800 from twenty twenty five to twenty thirty five. But you 0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:15.400 don't think that's the case because financially, renewables have to win. 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.280 I'll say yes, simpler answers, yes, I mean the dynamics 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:21.520 in the US are a little bit different. Number one 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:26.800 is we're penalizing heavily with tariffs renewable energy, so we're 0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.520 we're forcing prices higher than they normally would be. 0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:32.000 The rest of the world isn't doing that. 0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:34.400 The rest of the world is trying to do the opposite, 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:39.240 is restricting barriers. The other dynamic is that US does 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:43.240 have an abundance of natural gas, and our cost of 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:45.639 natural gas is cheaper than the rest of the world. 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:50.439 Now as we build more LNG terminals and natural gas 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:54.800 becomes a bit more like oil a commodity, a worldwide commodity, 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:57.679 as opposed to trapped gas in the US, then the 0:17:57.680 --> 0:18:01.600 price of natural gas will rise and that'll affect obviously, 0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:05.320 you know, the build I'm you know, very bullish on 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:09.280 solar and battery storage, even at the forty to fifty 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:13.280 gigawatte level that we talked about, you know, because I actually, 0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:16.520 you know, solar largely if you look at the projections, 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:19.040 you know, from twenty years ago and from fifteen years 0:18:19.080 --> 0:18:22.080 ago and from ten years ago, solar has beaten all 0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:25.560 of those projections, and I'm pretty bullish that it'll continue 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:25.919 to do that. 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:29.640 One other bearish note on solar that I should bring 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:33.280 up then is the residential solar industry in the US, 0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:37.080 which install about four gigabitz of solar in twenty twenty six, 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:41.040 fifteen percent lower than last year and less than half 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:43.520 of what was installed in twenty twenty three. And a 0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:45.960 large part of that is because of the removal of 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:49.520 federal subsidies on rooftop solar and the fact that you 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:53.200 have all these startups, et cetera. You don't worry that 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:57.240 that kind of impact that's come on a residential solar 0:18:57.320 --> 0:19:00.439 will come to the utility scale projects that you work on. 0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:03.600 It's a completely different market, you know, I mean, putting 0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:06.880 twenty or thirty panels on a roof is a whole 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:10.840 lot more expensive than you know, building two million panels 0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:14.720 on farmland in Arkansas or in a ranch in Texas. 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:18.119 So the demand that we're seeing on the solar side 0:19:18.520 --> 0:19:21.320 is going to continue to grow our business. 0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:28.919 After the break, I asked Kevin whether President Trump's anti 0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:41.280 wind crusade is going to come to solar. Going back 0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:44.560 to your point about electricity demand and that sort of 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:50.160 helping the solar and battery boom in the US, there 0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:54.080 is a fear that perhaps maybe all those demand may 0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:58.639 not pan out. That could be a bare case for 0:19:58.840 --> 0:20:01.840 here data centers. The other bare case could be that 0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.800 air data centers are not popular. Lots of people oppose 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:09.199 them just for how they look or the noise they produce, 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:12.000 or others oppose them because they are increasing power builds. 0:20:12.000 --> 0:20:16.160 As you talked about, that could also start to reduce 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:18.600 the number of data centers that get built in the 0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:23.440 US just from a power demand perspective. If that comes 0:20:23.480 --> 0:20:26.359 to pass, If there is not quite the bull case 0:20:26.400 --> 0:20:29.359 for power demand for data centers, does it affect the 0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:31.720 future for renewables? You think in the US. 0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:35.240 Well, you know, as I've kind of said, you know 0:20:35.359 --> 0:20:40.960 multiple times, the solar and battery storage is the most affordable, okay, 0:20:41.040 --> 0:20:45.000 and it's also quickest to market. Now, a behind the 0:20:45.040 --> 0:20:48.840 meter natural gas fire project for a data center that 0:20:48.920 --> 0:20:53.240 needs to provide five nine's reliability is a very expensive facility. 0:20:54.320 --> 0:20:56.840 If the data center load goes down and you don't 0:20:57.040 --> 0:21:01.160 have as many of those behind the meter product, then 0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:04.040 you'll likely it'll come out of the natural gas side 0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:06.800 of the of the model, not so much out of 0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:11.200 the solar and battery storage, which is largely grid connected solar. 0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:14.240 Some people talk about data center is about fifty percent 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:16.840 of the growth, you know, or sixty percent of the 0:21:16.880 --> 0:21:17.760 growth that we're. 0:21:17.560 --> 0:21:19.800 Going to see in electricity demand. 0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:24.480 But there's electrification going on across the across the country, 0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:28.960 you know, manufacturing activities, you know, electric vehicles. We are 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:32.280 continuing to see growth that is non data center related. 0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:35.719 But as you point out, if that data center growth 0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:41.000 doesn't materialize as we expect, my expectations are probably means 0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:42.760 that we build blessed natural gas. 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:46.640 It's worth mentioning wind as well. In twenty twenty five, 0:21:46.680 --> 0:21:49.720 President Trump signed an executive order holding the permitting of 0:21:49.800 --> 0:21:52.560 new wind projects. That was challenged in courts, and a 0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:56.639 federal judge blocked that executive order, and this month the 0:21:56.680 --> 0:22:01.160 Trump administration has decided not to appeal. But then there 0:22:01.240 --> 0:22:05.000 is a new case that's been brought by renewable groups 0:22:05.119 --> 0:22:08.280 who are suing the US government because the Pentagon, the 0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:12.440 Department of Defense is holding back the review of wind 0:22:12.440 --> 0:22:16.680 power projects, which has really brought wind development to a halt. 0:22:17.560 --> 0:22:21.040 Do you think this anti wind crusade is going to 0:22:21.040 --> 0:22:21.760 come to solar? 0:22:22.080 --> 0:22:26.240 It doesn't appear that it will, okay, And and mostly 0:22:26.320 --> 0:22:29.360 because I think I think the economics are clear, and 0:22:29.440 --> 0:22:33.240 the and the the amount of solar and battery stores 0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:37.080 that's that's helping helping the grid and helping keep electricity 0:22:37.119 --> 0:22:40.600 prices down. It doesn't make any sense to try and 0:22:40.640 --> 0:22:44.879 shut that off. It'll likely raise electricity prices. But the 0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:51.359 administration seems to have i'll say, a non economic, non technical, 0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:55.600 adverse reaction to building wind, which doesn't make a whole 0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:56.320 lot of sense either. 0:22:56.440 --> 0:23:00.600 Quite frankly, now taking more of global view, and you 0:23:00.600 --> 0:23:03.119