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Speaker 1: Happy Monday, guys, what's up. Welcome into a new episode

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Speaker 1: of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perrault.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all my socials at

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Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matt, and we come to you after a

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Speaker 1: long but winning day yesterday. Three and two on the

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Speaker 1: day thanks to the late Washington Commanders covering the six

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Speaker 1: and a half Raiders. They were the bad bet of

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Speaker 1: the day, Jets good bet of the day. The Browns

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Speaker 1: unfortunately do not cover, so we missed the teaser, but

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Speaker 1: the under came in so we made it up for that.

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Speaker 1: Hard rock bet improved a six and two on our

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Speaker 1: hard rock bet selections, so we go three and two

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Speaker 1: for the day, up point sixty five units. Here's a

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Speaker 1: couple of things for you guys who are in the

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Speaker 1: comment section who like to talk. You can bet whatever

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Speaker 1: you want. Okay, If you don't like the fact that

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Speaker 1: I bet the Commanders, the Jets and the Raiders and

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Speaker 1: you don't want to follow that, that's fine. That's what

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Speaker 1: this podcast is all about. But those plays went two

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Speaker 1: and one. So this is why the books are in business, guys,

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Speaker 1: because you look at the bet and you go, oh

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Speaker 1: my god, no, you're betting on the worst. Yes, betting

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Speaker 1: on the worst teams in November and December is exactly

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Speaker 1: what you should be doing because the numbers are totally inflated.

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Speaker 1: Everyone was on the Commanders yesterday. Everyone now, should they

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Speaker 1: have covered? Probably? Okay, the referees did everything in their

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Speaker 1: power for them to cover, and yet going for two

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Speaker 1: at the end was the right play. And you know

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Speaker 1: they score a touchdown. It was a refereed aided play

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Speaker 1: and then there were some calls that came back on

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Speaker 1: the other side. It was a very poor league game,

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Speaker 1: poorly officiated game on both sides. But you know from

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Speaker 1: a book perspective, the Commander's covering was the cherry on

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Speaker 1: top of a very good Sunday. I mean there were

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Speaker 1: numerous dogs to win outright on Sunday, namely the Jets. Okay,

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Speaker 1: your moneyline parlay's got blown up. This is you have

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Speaker 1: to change your mindset when you're gambling and you're gonna

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Speaker 1: do it consistently. You can't go by this narrative of

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Speaker 1: what you just saw or what you think is going

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Speaker 1: to happen, is going to happen every time. It's actually

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Speaker 1: the opposite. Like what you think is going to happen.

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Speaker 1: Bet the opposite. You'll probably be more successful doing that,

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Speaker 1: just by the nature of human mindsets and the way

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Speaker 1: that we gamble in what our eyes tell us versus

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Speaker 1: what actually happens in the NFL from a book making perspective,

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Speaker 1: because the books have seen the same thing that you did, right,

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Speaker 1: That's why I took the ten points, and the Raiders

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Speaker 1: had numerous chances to cover that number. Okay, they just

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Speaker 1: they're the worst team in football. They are either you're

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Speaker 1: betting against the Raiders. That's the last time I will

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Speaker 1: bet on the Raiders. They are now eliminated from the postseason.

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Speaker 1: So that's it. I mean, I thought they'd have a

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Speaker 1: dead cat bounce, and I thought their offense it did play.

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Speaker 1: Their offense looked better than it did previously. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: Gino Smith is gone awful. He's just he's absolutely horrible

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Speaker 1: at the quarterback spot for the Raiders. So and then

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Speaker 1: Justin Herbert breaks his hand and the team couldn't take advantage.

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Speaker 1: So that was unfortunate. We could have gone three and

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Speaker 1: zero on those plays, but Jets and the Commanders those

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Speaker 1: were the right sides. Even if the bet does those

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Speaker 1: bets don't cash. Those are the right sides the entire time.

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Speaker 1: So three and two up point sixty five units. So

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Speaker 1: winning Saturday, winning Sunday. I don't know what we did

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Speaker 1: for the week because the person that keeps track of

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Speaker 1: all that just had his third baby, and so we're

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Speaker 1: a little bit on. We're a little bit behind. We're

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Speaker 1: almost like a week behind, and all the tracking, I'm

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Speaker 1: assuming that's going to get caught up at some point

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Speaker 1: in the next couple of days, so we'll be able

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Speaker 1: to kind of tell you, guys what we're doing. But

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Speaker 1: we're pretty far behind going back before Thanksgiving. So I'm

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Speaker 1: sure we'll catch up at some point in the next

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Speaker 1: couple of days and I'll be able to give you

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Speaker 1: an accurate number as to what we're doing. But we

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Speaker 1: one on Saturday, one on Sunday. We start a new

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Speaker 1: week here on Monday. Now, when my team plays on

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Speaker 1: Monday Night football, I'm only betting this game. I'm only

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Speaker 1: betting Monday Night. I'm not betting anything else because it's

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Speaker 1: the only thing I'm watching. Patriots up against the Giants.

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Speaker 1: I got three plays for us all in that game,

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Speaker 1: one total and two side bets to get into but

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Speaker 1: up here for today, All right, let's talk Patriots, Giants

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Speaker 1: and the total at forty six and a half. So

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Speaker 1: the Giants have all of a sudden become a straight

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Speaker 1: over team. Giants four and one to the over over

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Speaker 1: their last five games. They're seven and five overall. They

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Speaker 1: are on the road this year, four and three to

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Speaker 1: the over against Detroit over by ten and a half.

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Speaker 1: In their last game against Green Bay over by five

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Speaker 1: and a half. Their road game against Chicago was twenty

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Speaker 1: four twenty. The total was forty four and a half.

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Speaker 1: It closed at so it didn't go over by half

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Speaker 1: a point, but before that it was over by ten

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Speaker 1: and a half, over by fifteen, over by twenty four,

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Speaker 1: and over by ten. This Giant defense is not good.

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Speaker 1: They get gashed in the run game. They give up

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Speaker 1: all sorts of yardage on the ground, and that's great

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Speaker 1: for a Patriot offense. It comes in averaging twenty six

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Speaker 1: point five points per game. They're averaging not a great

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Speaker 1: three point nine yards per rush. But the Giants are

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Speaker 1: the worst rush defense in football, giving up five point

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Speaker 1: nine yards per carry. That's the last one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty seven point two yards per game. That's last. They're

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Speaker 1: giving up twenty six point five rushes per game. That's fifteenth.

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Speaker 1: Teams should run the ball more against them, but they're

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Speaker 1: giving up one point four rushing touchdowns, so they get

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Speaker 1: down in the red zone. Teams can run the ball

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Speaker 1: in on the Giant so should be able to have

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Speaker 1: a lot of success running the football. And on the

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Speaker 1: other side, Jackson Dart, he'll be the quarterback tonight. I

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Speaker 1: would rather have Jamis Winston in the game to bet

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Speaker 1: the over. But even with Jackson Dart quarterbacking this offense,

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Speaker 1: he does make plays and they do play hard for him.

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Speaker 1: He's a mobile quarterback. The Patriots won't have Milton Williams.

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Speaker 1: They have not been able to stop the run recently.

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Speaker 1: The Patriots, you know, giving up four runs four yards

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Speaker 1: per rush is mostly due to the first half of

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Speaker 1: the season. They are number one in opposing rushing touchdowns

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Speaker 1: per game, but again that's because of Milton Williams. He's

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Speaker 1: not going to be there today. He's injured. So a

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Speaker 1: lot of the rushing numbers of the Patriots not very

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Speaker 1: accurate defensively, but you know, you have a mobile quarterback,

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Speaker 1: a guy who can hurt you in the red zone.

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Speaker 1: The Giants score one point three yards per game on

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Speaker 1: the per touchdowns on the ground per game. That's third

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Speaker 1: best in the NFL. Largely thanks to Jackson Dart his

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Speaker 1: ability to pick up first downs and touchdowns with his legs.

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Speaker 1: So I mean, is Patriot defense giving up eighteen point

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Speaker 1: eight eight yards are points per game again a little

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Speaker 1: bit deceptive because they were very good early, they haven't

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Speaker 1: been great as of late. The Patriots last two games

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Speaker 1: have gone under, but they've given up twenty fourteen, twenty three,

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Speaker 1: twenty three points over their last four games. If they

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Speaker 1: give up twenty three points here tonight, I think this

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Speaker 1: game is going way over forty six and a half.

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Speaker 1: I think the Patriots team total is a good look.

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Speaker 1: You want to go and bet that for them to

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Speaker 1: go over their team total. I think the Pats will

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Speaker 1: score thirty points tonight up against this defense. For the Giants,

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Speaker 1: weather's a little bit of a concern, but not that

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Speaker 1: big of a concern. It might be wet, it might

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Speaker 1: be some snow flurries, but not a lot of rain

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Speaker 1: to worry about. It'll be cold tonight in Foxborough, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to slow down the scoring

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Speaker 1: all that much. Here. Patriots have scored twenty six, twenty seven,

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Speaker 1: twenty eight, twenty four, thirty two and thirty one here

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Speaker 1: over their last six games, and this offense read by

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Speaker 1: Drake May. Drake May is right behind now for the MVP,

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Speaker 1: after what happened yesterday with the Rams, you can same

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Speaker 1: game tease this. With Drake May and company now being

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Speaker 1: close to the odds on favor to win the MVP,

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Speaker 1: you can take this down from seven to one and

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Speaker 1: then take the total from forty six and a half

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Speaker 1: down to forty and a half and bet over. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna do that. But there's a shot that Patriots lose

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Speaker 1: this game. Pats have won nine straight games, they have

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Speaker 1: the bye week next week. They've been rolling through people,

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Speaker 1: and for the Patriots to lose this game here to

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Speaker 1: go eleven and two and now ten and three wouldn't

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Speaker 1: done many people look at happened yesterday with last night

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Speaker 1: with the Broncos, right, I mean, they were lucky to

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Speaker 1: win that game against the Commanders, So if it was

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Speaker 1: a playoff game, they would have kicked the extra point

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Speaker 1: and kept on playing here to see who was going

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Speaker 1: to win the playoff game. So you know, going for

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Speaker 1: two was just because of the situation for the Commanders,

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Speaker 1: which why not you're at home, go for the win.

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Speaker 1: I liked it a better quarterback probably pump fakes and

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Speaker 1: gets that touchdown, gets that two point conversion to be converted.

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Speaker 1: Simple pump fake. You know, guy goes up in the air,

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Speaker 1: go underneath the and pass the ball to a wide

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Speaker 1: open running back for two points and you win the game.

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Speaker 1: Marcus Mariota couldn't do that. So that's you know, that's

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Speaker 1: the Broncos, and the Broncos have been living extremely dangerously.

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Speaker 1: They've been trailing in every game for nine straight wins.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's just playing with fire in the postseason.

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Speaker 1: You will not be able to do that if you

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Speaker 1: were Denver, and the Denver better have the one seed

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Speaker 1: because going on the road. Bo Nix on the road

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Speaker 1: is a totally different quarterback than bo Nicks at home.

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Speaker 1: Boenix at home is an auto fire bet on ride

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Speaker 1: bo Nicks. But if they're not the one seed and

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Speaker 1: they got to go on the road in the postseason,

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Speaker 1: I don't think Denver winds up in the super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: But we'll see how how the year is going to

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Speaker 1: play out. We'll see how the bracket gets formed for this.

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Speaker 1: But for tonight, officially, I'm gonna bet the over over

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Speaker 1: forty six and a half between the Giants and the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: I think we see a lot of offense here for

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Speaker 1: both sides. Again, I do think you can same game

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Speaker 1: tease this. Take the Patriots down from seven to one,

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Speaker 1: take the total forty six and a half down to

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Speaker 1: forty and a half, and bet over. I will be

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Speaker 1: doing that, but officially we're going over forty six and

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Speaker 1: a half for the Patriots and the Giants. Now two

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Speaker 1: player prop bets to give you guys here, the first

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Speaker 1: being Trevion Henderson and the Patriots, who again up against

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Speaker 1: this horrific running defense for the Giants. Travon Henderson, three

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Speaker 1: of the last four games has gone over this number

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Speaker 1: for receiving and rushing Eighty two and a half yards

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Speaker 1: is what this is set at. The prop bet cheat

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Speaker 1: sheet is projecting eighty eight point one rushing and receiving yards,

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Speaker 1: a seventy two percent cover probability, a plus thirty five

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Speaker 1: expected value member plus forty is the highest you can

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Speaker 1: get with the prop bet cheat sheet and a five

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Speaker 1: star play for Travion Henderson to go over eighty to

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Speaker 1: eighty two and a half rushing and receiving yards here

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Speaker 1: for tonight. He won up with eighty one in his

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Speaker 1: last game ninety three against the Jets, one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty against Tampa Bay, eighty seven against Atlanta, and seventy

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Speaker 1: five against Cleveland. He's been a very big part of

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Speaker 1: this offense with Drake May and company, and with a

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Speaker 1: two offensive linemen out for the Patriots, I don't think

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Speaker 1: they want Drake May passing the ball a ton I

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Speaker 1: think Drake May will pick up yardage. I than I

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Speaker 1: don't mind him on his over rushing for tonight, but

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Speaker 1: quarterback rushing could be a little funky, and so we'll

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Speaker 1: go Traymon Henderson over eighty two and a half rushing

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Speaker 1: and receiving for the Patriots. But to stick right with that,

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Speaker 1: I think Tyrone Tracy from the Giants, who's gone over

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Speaker 1: his number three games in a row against Detroit Green

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Speaker 1: Bay in Chicago seventy and a half, is rushing and receiving.

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Speaker 1: Number prop BEATGCHI is projecting seventy five. It's a sixty

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Speaker 1: nine percent cover probability, a plus twenty eight expected value,

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Speaker 1: and also a five star play here. One hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty yards rushing and receiving. The last game against Detroit

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Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty nine yards against Green Bay, seventy

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Speaker 1: one against Chicago. Not a good game against San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: but against Philly he had fifty three and Denver he

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Speaker 1: had forty six. Those were over his projected numbers fifty

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Speaker 1: three and forty six. He was twenty six and a

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Speaker 1: half against Philly in eighteen and a half against Denver.

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Speaker 1: He's getting a much bigger workload now here in this backfield,

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Speaker 1: and he's been a highly effective weapon both receiving and rushing.

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Speaker 1: He ran the ball twenty times for sixty two yards

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Speaker 1: against the Lions. He was targeted four times for sixty

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Speaker 1: eight yards receiving in that game, and that was with

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Speaker 1: Jameis Winston last game. But even I think with Jackson

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Speaker 1: Dart he still will get the football quite a bit.

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Speaker 1: We're going to go ahead and play the over seventy

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Speaker 1: and a half rushing and receiving for Tyrone Tracy for

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Speaker 1: us coming up for two days, So if you guys

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Speaker 1: are looking for other plays, I won't have anything Tuesday Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: During the week, I'll come at you and give you

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Speaker 1: some stuff, But for right now, I'm just going to

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Speaker 1: go with one game and just come in here with

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Speaker 1: the over forty six for the Patriots and the Giants

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Speaker 1: at one point one units, Trebon Henderson over eighty and

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Speaker 1: a half rushing and receiving, and Tyrone Tracy over rushing

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Speaker 1: and receiving at sixty nine and a half. If you

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Speaker 1: want more breakdown of the other things going on in

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Speaker 1: the sports world, and taking a look at the College

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Speaker 1: for All playoff, taking a look at the fact we

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Speaker 1: have Georgia to win the SEC. That ticket is live

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Speaker 1: against Alabama coming up on Saturday. We'll talk about how

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Speaker 1: we're going to play off. Of that, you can come

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Speaker 1: over and watch the Bostonian Versus the Book BVB as

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Speaker 1: we call it. It's a one thirty Eastern time start

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Speaker 1: on the BVB YouTube channel. Just go and search at

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Speaker 1: Boston Versus the Book on YouTube and or on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at Boston Versus the Book. You can subscribe to that

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel so you always know when I go live.

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Speaker 1: But Monday at one thirty Eastern time, full breakdown of

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Speaker 1: the Giants and the Patriots, in a recap of the

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Speaker 1: entire weekend, coming at you here at one thirty eastern

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Speaker 1: on BVB on the discord sorry, on the YouTube channel

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Speaker 1: at Boston Versus the Book my name is Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 1: You guys in following me across all my socials at

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Speaker 1: Sports Doc Matt. Every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice