WEBVTT - Surveillance: U.S. Jobs Report With Sec. Walsh 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:09.200 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:12.719 with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brown Witz Jay Leye. We 0:00:12.880 --> 0:00:16.800 bring you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:22.440 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance and Apple Podcast, Suncloud, 0:00:22.840 --> 0:00:30.760 Bloomberg dot com and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Secondly, Wolves, 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.120 joining us now on the labor market report we got 0:00:33.120 --> 0:00:36.200 a little bit earlier this morning, Dan in Washington, d C. Secondly, 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:37.919 what is great to have you with us on the program, Sir. 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:40.160 I just wanted to start right here with the wage story. 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:41.920 We heard from the President of United States in the 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:44.320 past week on this just listening with me about what 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:47.440 he had to say. Take a listen. The wages have 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:51.519 gone up higher faster than inflation. Uh, and we have 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:56.040 generated real economic growth. It doesn't mean these dislocations aren't real. 0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:00.320 They do affect people's lives. Secondly, Wolf, she said, wages 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:03.640 have gone up higher faster than inflation. What data is 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:06.679 the president looking at? Sir No, I think I think 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:08.320 what the president one that was really talking about is 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:11.720 inflation is reflecting our economy reviving, uh, and was seeing 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:15.160 this a worldwide issue. I mean, certainly, Uh, we've seen 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:18.120 over the last couple of months, wages increasing. We've seen 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:20.720 that that number catching up to inflation. Not quite there yet, 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:23.319 but it's heading towards that number. Again, I can't predict 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:25.280 what's going to happen over the course of the next 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:28.120 six eight months, but there's obviously a hope. All I 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:30.319 can say is that the President laid out a plan 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:33.640 in January for an economic recovery. UH. Since that time, 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:35.920 five point six million people have gone back to the workforce. 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:38.880 This month's report, there's a lot of positives in it 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:42.000 because it's it's a diversified group of businesses that have 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:45.240 seen increases in their in their job market, in manufacturing 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:48.080 and business related issues. Uh, in a whole bunch of 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:51.080 different sectors, in healthcare, it's not just in hospitality. So 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:53.080 you know, I still think that that we're moving forward. 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:55.240 I didn't hear the president's whole speech there, so I'm 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:57.880 assuming there was some context before and after what he said. Well, 0:01:57.920 --> 0:02:00.200 I don't think the context is already benefit when you 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:01.840 have the statement there for all to hear, for all 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.160 to see, we listen to the whole news conference ourselves. 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:06.920 He said in his words, the wages are growing faster 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:08.920 than inflation, and so I don't see that in the data. 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:11.040 IF had some uncomfortable moments in the past with the 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:14.600 previous administration when they used to say things that weren't accurate. 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:17.919 It's not accurate to say, is it, Secretary Walsh, that 0:02:18.040 --> 0:02:21.720 wages are rising faster than inflation in America right now? Well, 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:23.200 certainly in the in the last couple of months. And 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:25.359 I asked that question this morning when I when I 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:28.080 sat down with our economous team and I was asked 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:31.360 him about wages growth and inflation. And clearly, in the 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:33.840 first part of this year we saw some wages some 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.959 inflation going higher than wage growth. In the last couple 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:39.560 of months, we've seen some of that changing. So hopefully 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:43.600 that train continues. Let's sorry, I don't know if that's 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:46.880 what the President was referring to. The president's statement is 0:02:46.880 --> 0:02:49.040 the president's statement, it's not backed up by the dates. 0:02:49.040 --> 0:02:51.160 From my screen, I've got inflation with a five handle 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:54.480 and wage growth year over year, I've got growth of 0:02:54.600 --> 0:02:57.440 four point nine percent. Secretly, well, so I want to 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:00.520 talk about the vaccine mandate as well. You've put that 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:03.400 out there in a US today place earlier this week. 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:06.840 The participation right is not recovering in America. I want 0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:08.480 I want to stand from your perspective, how you think 0:03:08.520 --> 0:03:13.639 that mandate is going to win pack potentially vantakes a point. Well, 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:15.880 this report today shows that about three point eight million 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:19.000 Americans and directly not coming back to work because of 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.840 the pandemic. That's that's the reason for not coming back. Uh. 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:24.600 And what we put out yesterday in the Emerging Temporary 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:27.760 Standard wasn't a mandate. It was a companies over a 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:32.240 hundred people either testing, exsuming vaccine or testing. And that's 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:34.600 there's an option here, and that's what we're pushing for 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:37.680 here hopefully to see uh. And hopefully when when this 0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:39.960 gets put into effect and it goes into full effect 0:03:40.000 --> 0:03:42.640 by January, we will start to see hopefully some of 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:45.000 those three point eight million people who right now are 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:46.520 saying they're not coming back because of it, because of 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:48.720 the pandemic, will start to see those folks feel safe 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:51.280 enough to come back into the workplace. So it's a 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:54.400 it's a it's a it's a vaccine. If you don't 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:56.800 get vaccinated, you get tested, and then in the workplace 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:59.200 you have to wear a mask. Uh, and in your 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:01.280 own area, it's at the mascot. But it is about 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:03.520 protecting the health and safety of workers. I'll avoid the 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:05.360 semantics and I want to focus on a Goldmen Sax 0:04:05.400 --> 0:04:09.840 piece you referenced in the US Today USA Today piece. Secondly, Welsh, 0:04:09.960 --> 0:04:12.000 when you reference Goldmen Snax, can you want me through 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:14.240 the conclusion of that piece that you referenced in that 0:04:14.240 --> 0:04:16.880 outped pace early this week, can you say that one 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:19.240 more time? I'm sorry you referenced the Goldman Sax piece 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:21.599 of research on what would happen with some of the 0:04:21.600 --> 0:04:23.840 policies if they were introduced for labor supply. Can you 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:26.800 want me through the conclusion of that piece. Well, what 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:29.040 we're seeing. What we're seeing as companies that have put 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:32.359 put in place vaccine mandates and this isn't the minute, 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:35.479 but they put him in We've seen eight participation rate 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:37.760 of people getting vaccinated, and we're seeing people go back 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:39.840 to work. I mean, it's happened all across this country 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:42.400 in those cases. And again, this is about making sure 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:44.640 that we wanted to do and what that BED was 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:46.920 all about was really trying to explain to people that 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:50.320 we want to create safe working environments so people feel 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:52.640 safe about going back in Uh. You know, I would 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:54.760 rather be talking about something else today and in in 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:57.640 this period of time in history. But unfortunately, you know, 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:00.360 we're still living in the midst of a pand American 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:02.680 and I think that we can't overlook the fact that 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:04.560 people are afraid to go back to work. That's one 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:06.960 of the reasons. There's other reasons, childcare and other reasons. 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:09.320 But I think today's report is positive and we just 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:10.960 have to continue to build up the momentum, AMK of 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:13.200 this report. I want to read out the conclusion of 0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:15.280 that government SAX piece that you referenced in this piece 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:18.159 earlier this week, the research from Nhatsas and his team. 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:21.520 Here's the conclusion. We are therefore not adjusting our employment forecast, 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:23.600 but we see some downside risk to employment at the 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:26.280 end of twenty one an upside risk by the end 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:28.400 of twenty two as a result of the mandate. Now, 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:31.000 I want to understand from your perspective, sept to be Welsh, 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:33.720 do you accept that that as you introduce these policies 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:35.640 for supply in the labor market, there is some near 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:38.960 term downside risk, but ultimately potentially further down the road 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:42.360 some upside potential. And I don't think this is any 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:44.520 upside risk. I mean I think that this is this 0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:47.720 is clearly all a positive that we're doing here. I mean, 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:50.039 what we're doing is we're asking companies with a hundred 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:53.200 and more people to have their employees vaccinated or if 0:05:53.200 --> 0:05:55.960 they're not vaccinated tested, uh. And I think that we 0:05:55.960 --> 0:05:58.760 we can't forget that a year ago this time, we 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:01.440 had people dying in this country at high numbers. We 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:04.360 had high infection rate and high numbers. Since this pandemic began, 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:08.559 seven and fifty thousand Americans have died. Five million people 0:06:08.560 --> 0:06:10.880 in this in this world have died because of a pandemic. 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:12.719 And I think that you know, by by by putting 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:15.679 an emergency temporary standard in place, isn't going to impact 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.400 our economy negative manner. If anything's gonna have a very 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:20.080 positive impact on it. It's so just to be clear, 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:21.839 are we cherry picking the bits we like of the 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:24.440 government Saxon research and not the conclusion I just want 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:27.359 to finish that, Secretary Wolf, is that what we're doing here? No, 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:29.480 I wouldn't necessarily cherry picking anything. I think I'm just 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:32.120 stating a fact about about I think people are cherry 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:34.279 picking what we did with the t S and I 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:35.720 don't think that we have to look at the whole 0:06:35.720 --> 0:06:37.840 plan here. It's just like me coming on here today 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:40.799 and talking about five one thousand jobs is a good report. 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:42.560 Last month I was on it was a hundred three 0:06:42.560 --> 0:06:44.760 thousand report. If I only focus on the good reports 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:46.880 and didn't focus on the bad reports, that's cherry picking. 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:49.200 I don't cherry pick. I come straight at it. Hopefully 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:50.800 we get more of the same. Thank you for joining 0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:53.680 us today. Secondly, wolfh, thank you the Labor Secretary. Thank you, 0:06:53.720 --> 0:07:01.920 sir as always creed positive w C I of nine 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:04.960 cents if one PC on w C, I tell Brent 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:10.040 w C, I ya today up six. Well you got 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:12.760 a one dollar thirty cent delta between West Texas and 0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:15.040 media Brent crude. And this is an oil you know, 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:17.480 I'm gonna use a word from Generations Ago, John, it's 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.040 an oil market boxed up where there's a lot of 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:23.920 mystery out there, different meaning up in the UK. Maybe, well, 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:26.400 you know, we'll just comment on that now he canry 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:28.080 on to see. What we're gonna do right now is 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:31.240 speak to the general Lady from from the state of Michigan. 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:34.080 She is the Energy Secretary of the United States and 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:37.480 has been enjoying the fair climbs of Glasgow, England. I 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:41.120 always say, Governor Grant Homes, Secretary Grand Home, welcome to Bloomberg. 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:44.000 We're thrilled to speak with you this morning. Let me 0:07:44.080 --> 0:07:47.680 cut to it if I may, and Sturgis, Michigan. It 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:51.320 is two dollars eighty nine cents a gallon. I guess 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:55.000 that's better than in California. What is the grand Home 0:07:55.240 --> 0:08:03.160 plan to increase oil production in America? Oh? That is hilarious. 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:06.040 Would that I had the magic wand on this. As 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:10.000 you know, of course, oil is a global market. It 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:13.840 is controlled by a cartel. That cartel is called OPEC, 0:08:14.080 --> 0:08:16.680 and they made a decision yesterday that they were not 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:19.960 going to increase beyond what they were already planning. So 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.480 you know, the interesting thing is, you know, the Department 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:27.760 of Energy has an Energy Information Agency, and that agency 0:08:27.800 --> 0:08:31.280 does the forecasting of what oil and gas prices are 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:35.000 going to be as of As of right now, their 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:38.960 forecast for the beginning of December is that on average 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:42.600 gas prices, gasoline prices will be about three dollars and 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:45.400 five cents at the beginning of December. They will do 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.200 an adjustment to that forecast in the next week or so, 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:51.520 so we'll see if that holds. But clearly the Biden 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:54.240 administration is very concerned about the price at the pump 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:57.720 and certainly the price in people's wallets for natural gas 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:00.839 as well for this winter, including I would say propane 0:09:00.880 --> 0:09:03.600 and heating oil, particularly in the northeast. What is the 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:07.400 American solution If they're the bad guys, Russian and OPEC 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:09.760 at the global price of the market, we all understand 0:09:09.800 --> 0:09:14.160 the economics. What is the Biden plan to jump start 0:09:14.400 --> 0:09:21.920 energy production across America? Well, here's the Biden plan. I'm 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:24.400 here at Glasgow. The Biden plan is to diversify and 0:09:24.480 --> 0:09:26.760 to make sure that we move in a direction of 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:29.960 clean energy where we're not reliant upon cartels and we're 0:09:29.960 --> 0:09:34.240 not reliant upon geopolitical adversaries who may be um creating 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:37.200 choke points for our ability and our people to be 0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:40.040 able to access energy. So that's obviously a longer term 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:42.320 strategy and we will continue. This is why this is 0:09:42.320 --> 0:09:46.160 called a transition. But if a d plus dollars a 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:50.200 barrel doesn't incentivize oil companies to get off the sidelines. 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:51.720 I'm not sure what well. For those of you on 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:53.840 radio today and John Ferroll, I must note that the 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:57.840 former governor of Michigan is wearing East Lansing green today. 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:01.960 That's what the color re And are we on opaque? Plus? 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.400 I do wonder and I don't think it's funny. Said 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:06.520 an imagine had this to say early this week. Let's 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:09.360 take a listen. I say that we can basically do 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:11.680 more for ourselves. We've been energy independent for the first 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:14.680 time in sixty seven years. Why can't we do more? 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:18.160 Why can't we produce more? We've got plenty of natural gas. 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.800 My state, beautiful Stata West Virginia, has an ocean of 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:23.440 natural gas under it. If they just let us build 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.120 a pipeline, we can get the product to market. And 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:28.240 why don't we do more drilling? And why don't we 0:10:28.280 --> 0:10:31.240 do more basically production in the United States. I'm not 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:34.719 depending on OPEC. I'm not depending on other countries for 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:36.880 my energy anymore. We know how to do it, we 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:40.800 have the technology. We should be relying on ourselves. The 0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:45.559 words of the Senator, the Democrat, Mr. Mansion, that these 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:49.120 as the words of the Pioneer CEO. Madam Secretary, let's 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:51.280 pick up with the words of the Pioneer CEO. The 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:54.040 president's efforts to restrict drilling on federal land and offshore 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:57.079 have been stunning. To backfast some his quote, he's got 0:10:57.080 --> 0:10:59.760 to back off his rhetoric on federal leases going forward. 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:03.240 Do you think it's true that we are reliant on 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:10.040 opeque plus in the United States of America. We are 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:13.680 reliant on a global gas market. I mean the global 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:17.840 gas market. We can't just produce oil for the United States. 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:20.400 It is on a global market. And let me just 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:23.720 say the President has not banned oil and gas leases. 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:29.440 There are twenty three million acres of public lands that 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:33.400 includes offshore and onshore where there are leases that have 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:36.040 that are not being used right now by oil and 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:40.400 gas companies. Over seven thousand leases have been issued and 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:42.720 the oil and gas companies are not using them. They're 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:45.520 sitting on them, their stockpiling these leases. Why is that 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:49.840 so we need? You know, if the production issue is 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:52.080 not at the foot of the president, there is not 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:55.320 a band on oil and gas leases unfederal lands. Amount 0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:57.360 of Secretary, you know, I'm careful with my words. I 0:11:57.400 --> 0:12:00.880 didn't sight band I said restrict And in addition to that, 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:03.840 you're talking about why they won't invest. We know why 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:07.360 they won't invest. They won't invest because this administration is 0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:10.720 speaking so highly of this big energy transition that you're 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:14.520 actively supporting. So I think it's misleading to say that 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:17.600 we are in the United States America increasingly dependent on 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:20.080 opaque plus when we've seen all production in this country 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:22.800 increase over than last several decades. Now, there are some 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:25.680 options out there for you, as you know, with the SPR, 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.080 with the options on the table, to address the situation 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:30.439 we're in. At the moment, the United States of America 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:33.000 is in control of its own destiny here. I do 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.160 wonder if the SPR is an option for you to 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:40.480 address what's happening in the commodity market. The SPR is 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:43.319 certainly on the table as an option, and the President 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:45.520 will have more to say about that. But let us 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:46.920 be clear. I mean, just to go back to your 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:50.280 other point, I mean these the oil and gas companies 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:55.400 have leases that there is no slow down, There is 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:59.280 no whatever the words were that you use, there's no restriction, 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:03.720 no ever on their ability to use those leases, over 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.000 seven thousand of them on public lands. Right now, So 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:08.880 I just don't want to let that stand. It is 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:11.960 not the President's doing that is causing the oil and 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:15.040 gas companies right now to decide to slow down. Actually 0:13:15.080 --> 0:13:17.400 they were slowed down because of COVID, and we're seeing 0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:21.000 some movement of oil rigs getting back online. But it's 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:24.120 it is curious about why they are not incentivized more 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:26.960 at eighty dollars a barrel. Let me just say, and 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:30.320 you're right about us moving to clean energy. That is 0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:32.840 the future, and that is the long term strategy, and 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.160 we must do that so that we're not reliant upon 0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:38.440 fuels that pollute the air that we see that are 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:41.480 accelerating climate change. To that point, Secretary Grant Home, some 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:44.000 people say that the best cure to get to a 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:47.480 greener future faster is to allow gas prices to go higher. 0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:50.840 They are much higher in places like United Kingdom. Why 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:53.680 isn't there a school of thoughts saying this is just fine. 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.000 Perhaps people will reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and 0:13:57.040 --> 0:14:04.200 diversify more quickly because real people use fossil fuels, and 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:09.360 real people's wallets, uh livelihoods are at stake. The President 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:12.360 does not want to see the price of fuel hurt 0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:16.480 and pinch real people. Poor communities have about third up 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:20.600 to thirty of their monthly income is based upon fuels. 0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:23.200 It's not right to raise the price of fuels. That 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.320 would actually hurt real people. That is not in the 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:27.320 President's plan, and he doesn't want to see that amount 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:29.400 of sextuary. When can we expect a decision with the 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:34.920 spr Is that something you're thinking about imminently? Um. I 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:36.800 know that the President is looking at it and he'll 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:38.920 have more to say about it. Okay, thank you very 0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:41.520 much for joining us this morning. Monam. Secretary Jennifer Granhume 0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:51.120 on this oil market, the importance of this. Pharmaceutical companies 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:54.760 are coming up with a pill of various means and 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:58.480 types and styles, and in the case of Merk, they're 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:02.160 allowing it to go genera immediately. That is the urgency 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:06.160 here on COVID nineteen. And of course the news today 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:11.280 and the key numbers Feiser with a pill that they 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:16.600 say has efficacy in a clinical trial. To translate. Andrew 0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:23.080 Pekos of jenn Hopkins University, Andrew, is this pill like aspirin? Well, 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:25.720 it's a lot better than aspirin. It seems to be 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:30.920 incredibly effective at reducing that disease severity linked with covid 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:35.040 UH infection. And the population they tested had to have 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:39.160 at least one pre existing condition that pre exposed them 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:43.560 to severe covid so they were targeting a population that 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:46.520 was more likely to have severe disease and it worked 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:50.560 that amazing percentages in that population. What's the chemistry? Is 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:53.400 it m R n A in a pill form like 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:55.960 in the syringe that hurt me so much? I mean, 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:58.800 is it the same medicine. No, it's a it's a 0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:03.360 very very different approach. This drug targets um, one of 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:06.560 the enzymes of the virus that the virus needs to 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:10.760 make its proteins replicate its genome, you know, so, so 0:16:11.040 --> 0:16:15.400 it targets replicating virus and it really does stop that 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:19.400 virus from replicating relatively quickly. And because we're talking about chemistry, 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:22.480 will turn it over to well, that's a I was 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.120 going to talk about the efficacy of this chemistry because 0:16:25.120 --> 0:16:28.640 we talked about efficacy rates of when we first started 0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:31.680 talking about the vaccines, the MR and A vaccines. Is 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:34.960 this going to be a similar story we're talking now, 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:38.560 But there's asterisk asterisk and we might see a less 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:43.040 rosy future for such for such remedies. Well, here, here's 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:46.480 the big problem with antiviral treatments is they have to 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:49.880 be given early after symptom onset. And in this study, 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.440 everybody got the drug within five days of symptoms, and 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:56.040 there were even better results if you if you started 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:59.880 taking the drug within three days of symptoms. Translate that 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:02.840 to the real world and it becomes a bit more problematic. 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:05.000 You have to come up with symptoms, you have to 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:07.280 go get a COVID nineteen test, you have to get 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:10.200 the results from those tests, and then go get a prescription. 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:13.800 So the implementation of this in the population is going 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:16.719 to be a challenge. Um if we continue to have 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:20.600 delays in terms of getting test results back going forward, 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:23.200 how much the game changer is this. It's a tremendous 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:26.719 game changer because right now we have vaccines which give 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:30.040 you your first line of protection. And now even if 0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:33.560 you're if you come up with symptoms after vaccination, you'll 0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:36.959 have this additional pill to take, and we also have 0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:39.800 marks pill that's also going to become available soon too 0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:43.080 that gives you that extra layer of protection from disease severity. 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:45.239 So we really have the tools in place that, if 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:50.080 used effectively, you can really eliminate severe disease from providaccio. 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:53.119 How do you envision the distribution? And this is it 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:55.080 going to be a bottle of bear rafts forrin it? 0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:57.560 You know, do Ane read the local pharmacy? Is it 0:17:57.560 --> 0:18:01.440 going to be by prescription? I mean, how how are we? Oh, 0:18:01.480 --> 0:18:04.240 I feel bad today, I need a COVID nineteen pecos 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:07.240 Still what do you do? So right now, it's really 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:10.560 going to be limited to individuals who are probably in 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:14.000 a high risk group and who all have COVID nineteen 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:18.600 positive test. That's what the clinical trials tested, So that's 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:22.199 probably what's going to be first approved. But you know, 0:18:22.320 --> 0:18:26.440 Fiser itself was talking about using these UH pills as 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:32.080 a prophylaxis, meaning if Tom gets sick, um, Tom's family 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.760 can maybe get the pill before they used to show 0:18:34.760 --> 0:18:38.040 any symptoms to prevent infection. And I think that's where 0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:41.720 some of these antiviral drugs will really be even greater 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:43.720 game changers if they can be shown to work in 0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:47.639 those levels. Can these dr packos? Can these anti virals 0:18:47.680 --> 0:18:50.520 bring us back to a time that feels more familiar 0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:55.240 pre where it's not that big of a deal to 0:18:55.320 --> 0:18:58.919 get covid um. It will bring us back to a 0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:01.560 time where we can manage this disease. UM. It will 0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:04.879 probably never come back to zero um. It will probably 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:07.680 be a disease that we deal with like influenza, which 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:12.000 can cause severe disease but is controlled because of vaccines 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:14.800 and anti virals. And we now have that last piece 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.800 of the puzzle that's needed to control let covid nineteen 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:21.040 and that's the effective antivirals and more than one of them. 0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:24.000 Andrew Peckers, thank you so much. We're just exciting news. 0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:32.439 Just greatly appreciate it. With JOHNS. Hopkins this morning, this 0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:35.040 is a really important conversation. Part of what a list 0:19:35.080 --> 0:19:37.840 and I invented with John Farrell is a bit of 0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:41.840 laughter and that you've got to keep this going about economics, finance, 0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:47.280 investment with laughter and with lightness and for thousands and 0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:51.359 millions of American retirees. And we say good morning to 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:54.960 all of you around the world as well. This isn't funny. 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:58.320 There are negative real yields. And if I look at 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:01.919 Jerome Schneider's track record it in short term paper at 0:20:02.000 --> 0:20:06.879 PIMCO or he is world class five year percentile eight percentile, 0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:09.480 which is all you need to know. The numbers have 0:20:09.560 --> 0:20:12.600 gone down. Jerome Schneider joins us now to speak to 0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:17.400 retire these worldwide. Jerome, this is grim. Is there a 0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:23.560 social urgency to push rates higher and push short term 0:20:23.680 --> 0:20:28.600 rates like c d s higher? Good morning to both. Uh. 0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:31.560 There probably is some pressure building, and I think really 0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:35.560 what you think about is the punishing of sects of 0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:37.640 the zero yields we've seen here in the United States 0:20:37.680 --> 0:20:41.920 of the past year plus, combined with the growing inflationary expectations, 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:44.480 it has been a giant erosion of purchasing power. And 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:46.800 I think that's become front and center in some in 0:20:46.880 --> 0:20:49.960 terms of the dialogue of not only how corporate treasurers 0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:52.280 think about it, i e. How they spend their capital 0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:55.080 and on capex and manufacturing goods and things like that, 0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:58.440 but also what the savers ultimately are going to be doing, 0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:02.160 which is saving now for you know, purchasing power later, 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:04.960 and that has been obviously eroded. What I think is 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:07.640 important also that is to put it in context. And 0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:11.720 I think that the context here is important. Everybody gets 0:21:11.760 --> 0:21:13.879