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Speaker 1: Time today. What time is it? Game Time? If you
Speaker 1: wonder why the NFL is king on television, twenty seven
Speaker 1: to twenty tonight was a great example by that much
Speaker 1: a doe decides the game. Listen. Baltimore was outplayed for
Speaker 1: big chunks of this thing and almost almost tied it.
Speaker 1: They almost certainly would have gone for two in the win.
Speaker 1: And that's why Baltimore is so dangerous. You know. Lamar
Speaker 1: Jackson did not throw the ball down the field effectively,
Speaker 1: nor has he ever as well as Patrick Mahomes. Although
Speaker 1: Mahomes did not throw the ball down the field much
Speaker 1: last year because it was one of the worst receiving
Speaker 1: cores in the league. With Worthy, now that's a deep threat.
Speaker 1: They've added some dimensions and over the top receiver Juju
Speaker 1: Smith Schuster will become more productive over time. He just
Speaker 1: got reacquired, so Watson Rice now where she Rice looks
Speaker 1: like a number one. Worthy's going to be a gadget
Speaker 1: guy early. I don't think he's a heavy volume guy,
Speaker 1: a nine to ten catch guy, but he adds an
Speaker 1: element they didn't have. He's an over the top playmaker.
Speaker 1: But it's interesting watching Baltimore. They had a lot of
Speaker 1: offensive penalty, especially early in the game. They don't throw
Speaker 1: the ball down the field enough. And then you get
Speaker 1: that final drive by Lamar Jackson, where I mean, honestly,
Speaker 1: he reminds me of like a great high school player
Speaker 1: where he's just so much better than everybody else on
Speaker 1: the field. He's like a high school football game and
Speaker 1: there's one D one prospect and it's the quarterback and
Speaker 1: he's just running around making all these plays happen. Lamar
Speaker 1: Jackson makes other great pro football players look slow and unathletic,
Speaker 1: and that's why I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes
Speaker 1: and Peyton Manning probably wasn't Brady, you know, and Mickelson
Speaker 1: wasn't Tiger Woods, and Barkley was an MJ. Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: is so productive, he cares so much. Now, I thought,
Speaker 1: my one real negative with Lamar Jackson you can't get
Speaker 1: hit that many times. I'm sorry, you can't last seventeen
Speaker 1: games in the regular season, two or three playoff games
Speaker 1: played like that. Lamar's lost weight, he's thinner, and he
Speaker 1: took a beating tonight. Now I think this game means
Speaker 1: so much. Lamar not gonna slide, He's not gonna run
Speaker 1: out of bounds against Kansas City. So I don't think
Speaker 1: Lamar is going to play like this, this this sort
Speaker 1: of physical football game on average. But he took a
Speaker 1: beating tonight, and that Kansas City defense is fast and
Speaker 1: physical that you have to reduce. You can't play like that.
Speaker 1: But I will defend Lamar to the very end. He
Speaker 1: is such a remarkable player, you know, he just he
Speaker 1: doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently. But he
Speaker 1: finally has a really nice group of receivers. Isaiah Likelely
Speaker 1: is terrific. That's the football game. And the fact that
Speaker 1: that guy went down in the back of the end zone.
Speaker 1: I thought he broke his ribs. I mean, he just
Speaker 1: slammed down on the corner where it's not you know,
Speaker 1: it's not padded very well, gets up and he's making plays.
Speaker 1: What a gamer. You know, I look at my notes
Speaker 1: over the course of the game. I think here's the
Speaker 1: really good news for Kansas City. Last year. It's often
Speaker 1: discussed right ad nauseum, that receiving course bad Rashi Rice
Speaker 1: was young. He felt like maybe a two. He felt
Speaker 1: like a one tonight. You know, now, is he a
Speaker 1: great one? Is he a top five to one? Is
Speaker 1: he see the lamb? Is he Devontae Adams? No, but
Speaker 1: he felt like a real, go to, high volume, thirteen targets,
Speaker 1: nine catch guy for them they have now, Noah, great,
Speaker 1: they've got a second tight end. Watson's around, Juju Smith,
Speaker 1: Schuster and again Xavi are worthy. You know, I joked
Speaker 1: when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy.
Speaker 1: He's one hundred and sixty five pounds. You know, I
Speaker 1: don't think that he's going to lead them to the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. But he adds a dimension to an offense
Speaker 1: that since Tyreek Hill left, they don't have a downfield threat.
Speaker 1: So you know, for the longest time of the game,
Speaker 1: he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown, but
Speaker 1: blown coverage later he gets a second touchdown and you
Speaker 1: have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line.
Speaker 1: Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody
Speaker 1: scared you down the field. Well, now they have a
Speaker 1: one in Rashi Rice, have a downfield threat. They have
Speaker 1: multiple Watts and Noah Gray, Travis Kelcey. They've solved their
Speaker 1: weapons issue. For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pichecko?
Speaker 1: What did he drop to the seventh round? How did
Speaker 1: they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane.
Speaker 1: It's just it's amazing to me. You get to the
Speaker 1: fourteenth player in the NBA draft, you're out of players.
Speaker 1: Rock Perty's the last gun I taken. And Isaiah Pacheco
Speaker 1: I think he was a seventh round guy. God, how
Speaker 1: did all these gms watch film and just keep passing
Speaker 1: on him. He's impossible to bring down, run so hard
Speaker 1: he can catch it out of the backfield. What a
Speaker 1: weapon he is? So Kansas City's weapons shortage, they're gonna
Speaker 1: be fine there. And this is you're just looking at
Speaker 1: two great organizations. I love watching these two play. And
Speaker 1: there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 1: You know, they led twenty to ten at one point
Speaker 1: at I kind of felt first half, I thought Baltimore
Speaker 1: was just kind of trying to find its footing. They
Speaker 1: weren't throwing the ball down the field. Second half, Kansas
Speaker 1: City and that screen game pulls away. I thought, you know,
Speaker 1: if you watch that game, you could say Kansas City
Speaker 1: controlled big chunks of it. And here comes Lamar just
Speaker 1: putting the team on his back, taking too many shots,
Speaker 1: running down the field, making big plays. The guy's just
Speaker 1: an Alzheimer, just an absolute ald timer. But you know,
Speaker 1: sports is like this. You know, if you take Tiger
Speaker 1: Woods out, think how many tour events Mickelson wins. I mean,
Speaker 1: Philip he had to have over like forty five tour wins.
Speaker 1: Didn't he take out one guy? Take out Barkley and
Speaker 1: it changes take out MJ. It changes Barkley's career with titles,
Speaker 1: take out John Elway's career, Joe Montana, Brady, There's so
Speaker 1: many great athletes who we spend so much time criticizing
Speaker 1: because they can't beat the legend. I talked about that
Speaker 1: on FS one today. God Lamar is just so unique
Speaker 1: and so gifted, but he took a beating tonight and
Speaker 1: you just can't play that way. A day with Baltimore
Speaker 1: and Kansas City each to night, all the weapons, all
Speaker 1: the talented players on the perimeter and running backs, I
Speaker 1: kept thinking, does Buffalo match up with these guys now
Speaker 1: that Stefan Diggs is out? Like I'm watching all these
Speaker 1: weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore, including their quarterbacks. You
Speaker 1: know who matches up in the AFC Houston. Houston's got
Speaker 1: these kind of weapons, adding Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Nico'collins,
Speaker 1: c J. Stroud, Like I'm both these teams tonight. I
Speaker 1: mean it's tight ends, it's wide receivers, it's slot guys,
Speaker 1: it's running backs, it's all time quarterbacks. You know Buffalo
Speaker 1: is I like cook a couple good tight ends, a
Speaker 1: rookie receiver. You know, Buffalo maybe what Kansas City was
Speaker 1: last year, and they may be weapons short. And that's
Speaker 1: why a lot of people, myself included kind of like Houston.
Speaker 1: I mean, at some point last year may have been
Speaker 1: the year to beat Kansas City. That may have been
Speaker 1: the year. You know, they weren't going to have home field,
Speaker 1: They couldn't beat you in a track meet. They had
Speaker 1: the gate keep the games pretty close and low scoring.
Speaker 1: Now this team's back to I mean again, this is
Speaker 1: Worthy's first game. What's Xavi, You're Worthy going to do?
Speaker 1: When we gate through thirteen? We ten through seventeen. So
Speaker 1: last year may have been the year to get Kansas City.
Speaker 1: What a night. I chewed two pieces of my neuro
Speaker 1: gum to stay up tonight. I'm not messing around now.
Speaker 1: I may be staring at the ceiling at one in
Speaker 1: the morning. That was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so
Speaker 1: lucky to do what I do for a living. I'm
Speaker 1: sitting there tonight. I ordered door Dash, eating some Mexican food,
Speaker 1: and I'm sitting there watching that and I'm like, I mean,
Speaker 1: this is how good is this? Arrowhead? Mahomes Reed, Harball,
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. I'll just say it again, Baltimore didn't play
Speaker 1: particularly well and it was this close. So you can
Speaker 1: sell all your Ravens stock. I'm buying it. I didn't
Speaker 1: think they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played
Speaker 1: that well. And he's driving him down against that incredible defense,
Speaker 1: you know, because of Reid and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense.
Speaker 1: He'll just never get the love. It is so fast,
Speaker 1: so twitchy, consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers
Speaker 1: that move well. That's it where Baltimore probably goes for
Speaker 1: two and has a chance to win. When you don't
Speaker 1: play particularly well on the road and narrowhead and almost
Speaker 1: beat the Chiefs, I'd be worried these two will meet again.
Speaker 1: That's what it feels like to me. One of the
Speaker 1: more interesting games this weekend is Colorado and Deon Sanders
Speaker 1: and all he brings to the table at Nebraska. Now,
Speaker 1: Travis Hunter and Shader Sanders for the Buffaloes are the
Speaker 1: two best players in the game, and they alone may
Speaker 1: be able to carry Colorado to the win. But I
Speaker 1: like Nebraska for a lot of reasons. Number one is,
Speaker 1: if you go to last year, nobody lost more close
Speaker 1: games down the stretch than Nebraska. They were close. They
Speaker 1: needed a couple of transfers, they needed to get a
Speaker 1: little older on the defensive side. It didn't matter if
Speaker 1: it was Iowa, it was Maryland, it was Michigan State.
Speaker 1: They lost by a field goal, it felt like every week,
Speaker 1: and they were shooting themselves in the foot with a
Speaker 1: lot of ugly turnovers. This defense now is different. Six seniors,
Speaker 1: five junior start and that matters a lot of starts
Speaker 1: against the Colorado offense and offensive line that I haven't
Speaker 1: loved for the last couple of years. Again, Colorado's got
Speaker 1: the two best players in this game, maybe the three
Speaker 1: or four. Best depth experience I like Nebraska. The other
Speaker 1: thing is that Colorado has by and large last three
Speaker 1: matchups is at one Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also, I
Speaker 1: tend to look at programs. I think there's baby steps.
Speaker 1: I think when you take over a program, first of all,
Speaker 1: the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing
Speaker 1: the gap. Nebraska last year close losses. Generally those kind
Speaker 1: of teams the following year start turning those into close wins,
Speaker 1: and then the following year, if you have the right
Speaker 1: coach and the right players, you have decisive wins. I
Speaker 1: don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet
Speaker 1: against the better teams on their schedule, but I don't
Speaker 1: think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule.
Speaker 1: I like Nebraska by ten points. I think their defense,
Speaker 1: though it won't be a perfect game A Shadure Sanders,
Speaker 1: he moves well. I really like him. I mean, I
Speaker 1: almost feel like if Shadure Sanders, if you're gonna judge
Speaker 1: him just on football, he could be the number one
Speaker 1: pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball,
Speaker 1: moving pocket, moving left, moving moving forward. He has tremendous
Speaker 1: ball placement, and he's kind of what everybody's looking for.
Speaker 1: He can win in the pocket, he can win off script.
Speaker 1: So I think Colorado is gonna score some points to
Speaker 1: be a handful. But I think Matt Ruhle situationally, is
Speaker 1: a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger presence. Dion
Speaker 1: maybe a better recruiter. But I mean Nebraska was I
Speaker 1: looked it up this morning, top thirty and tackles for
Speaker 1: loss last season and now this defense six seniors, five juniors,
Speaker 1: is even older. They got that new quarterback, Dylan Reyola.
Speaker 2: They like him.
Speaker 1: They are more than capable at quarterback. He's not Shugar Sanders,
Speaker 1: but he's fine. Nebraska at home more experienced defense. Matt
Speaker 1: Rule losing close to now winning close. I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: him by about eight to ten points here, Litt thirty
Speaker 1: three twenty four kind of feels like that to me.
Speaker 1: I like the Huskers, all right, the game of the day,
Speaker 1: it's on fock is Texas their first ever meeting in
Speaker 1: the Big House against Michigan. It's remarkable to think about
Speaker 1: two brands that big that have never faced in the
Speaker 1: big house. Listen, I was a Michigan believer all last year.
Speaker 1: I mean, Harbaugh on the sidelines are not They were
Speaker 1: hammering people. But Michigan lost eight of eleven offensive starters,
Speaker 1: a star quarterback, a star receiver, a star back, top
Speaker 1: offensive lineman, and those were also in many instances leaders.
Speaker 1: So not only do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I
Speaker 1: think the cultural vibe of the toughest physicality will remain
Speaker 1: even if this coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is,
Speaker 1: I mean, Mark Helfrich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly,
Speaker 1: but for a year you couldn't tell the difference. I
Speaker 1: think there's a lot of momentum program momentum for Michigan,
Speaker 1: but they just lost too many leaders and too much
Speaker 1: firepower on offense. And I think they're a team that
Speaker 1: will be able to win a certain way. I think
Speaker 1: Texas can win anyway, shootout, close, They're better at quarterback.
Speaker 1: Now they lost three receivers to the NFL, but it's Texas,
Speaker 1: it's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked
Speaker 1: to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him
Speaker 1: to differentiate in some instances starters from backups with Texas,
Speaker 1: and we tend to rush to a judgment with these
Speaker 1: high profile coaches A Kiffin, A Sark, a Lincoln Riley,
Speaker 1: a Harbaugh, you can't. This stuff takes two and three years,
Speaker 1: even with big brands to get up to speed. So
Speaker 1: you're in the Ohio state class, you're in the Georgia
Speaker 1: and Alabama class. This is the first time I look
Speaker 1: at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to
Speaker 1: toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back end.
Speaker 2: Last year.
Speaker 1: Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that I think Texas
Speaker 1: has a chance to play for the national championship. I
Speaker 1: think they bring back more experience that offensive line for Texas.
Speaker 1: Now that's some first and second round talent. That's a
Speaker 1: lot of starts. They may have some new receivers, that's
Speaker 1: a lot of starts and quinn ewers from diet to
Speaker 1: His play on the field is a little bit more
Speaker 1: structured to me last year than what I saw initially.
Speaker 1: Was not a big fan initially, just played to loose
Speaker 1: to J Cutler. To me, I like Texas here now again.
Speaker 1: I think it's a pretty low scoring game. I think
Speaker 1: Michigan has some top defenders are at home. Even good
Speaker 1: college teams can struggle away from home. I looked at
Speaker 1: this morning, get opened at Texas minus four. It's now
Speaker 1: Texas minus seven. I think the Longhorns win. I think
Speaker 1: it's probably pretty close. But I think you'll watch that
Speaker 1: game and from a more dynamic offense to the better quarterback,
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna feel like Texas. They may stumble
Speaker 1: a little early, intimidating big house. I think they pull
Speaker 1: away late a little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio
Speaker 1: State last couple of years. Physicality leaned on him late
Speaker 1: third quarter on. You're going to feel like the better team,
Speaker 1: the better roster, the better chance of the National Championship
Speaker 1: is Texas. I like the horns here by about six.
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Speaker 1: All right, it's time for another season of Sharp or Square.
Speaker 1: After quite a sabbatical, I am now working again on
Speaker 1: almost a full time basis. Chad Milman, C COO of
Speaker 1: the Action Network. The Favorites, by the way, I have
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars pick them contests free to play. We'll
Speaker 1: get to that later.
Speaker 4: All the one hundred thousandd thousand, Man, we're giving away
Speaker 4: one hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: Wow, thousand, one hundreds.
Speaker 4: We don't do a thousand On the Volume podcast network.
Speaker 4: We're big time.
Speaker 1: All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I spent a
Speaker 1: lot of time this summer in uh, you know, in
Speaker 1: a place out east, Yes, very close to where you live.
Speaker 1: I played a lot of golf and during that time
Speaker 1: a lot of time to think about odds. And I
Speaker 1: almost did not do a first week of this. And
Speaker 1: my take has been, the world's changed. All these sharps
Speaker 1: pick at these line one odds. I have all summer
Speaker 1: to pick at these puppies once they're available. This is
Speaker 1: a terrible week to bet. And then I look at
Speaker 1: the numbers this week and I'm like, they may not
Speaker 1: be the best, but i got a couple I like
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna start with one of them that I'm
Speaker 1: being warned about. Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the
Speaker 1: end of last year. I think the last couple of
Speaker 1: drafts they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray.
Speaker 1: I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for He's like
Speaker 1: nobody else in the league. He's like to me, he's
Speaker 1: a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and
Speaker 1: Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and
Speaker 1: a half is not only the play. I think they
Speaker 1: could win Sharper square.
Speaker 4: Ish like of all the games they just I'm with you, brother, like,
Speaker 4: I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in Week one.
Speaker 4: Arizona is a team. I'm not gonna lie to you.
Speaker 4: Wise guys love they think that in the NFC West.
Speaker 4: They love Seattle, they love Mike McDonald as a coach.
Speaker 4: They are really bullish on Arizona. This number action clicked down,
Speaker 4: got down to six. It was much higher even during
Speaker 4: the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up. I
Speaker 4: think there was some over exuberance on the Cardinals. And
Speaker 4: don't forget this is the kind of game that the
Speaker 4: Bills historically not just cover, but dominate, right, And so
Speaker 4: there are so many unknowns in this game. Professional betters.
Speaker 4: They are going to lean towards underdogs in Week one
Speaker 4: and that's going to be a theme for everything we're
Speaker 4: talking about. And I've got a lot of numbers to
Speaker 4: back it up for folks, But this one is trickier.
Speaker 4: I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it
Speaker 4: goes back down to six, probably, No, don't forget six
Speaker 4: has become a lot more of a key number with
Speaker 4: extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't
Speaker 4: give you a definitive. I can say, if I got
Speaker 4: to play a side, I'm playing Arizona, but I don't
Speaker 4: think it's blazon by any means.
Speaker 1: Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit
Speaker 1: out here.
Speaker 2: Goodlet's warm up.
Speaker 4: Let's just warm up.
Speaker 1: The one I really like is Carolina plus three and
Speaker 1: a half of the Saints. I think New Orleans is
Speaker 1: poorly quarterbacked and poorly coached. I think they'll be the
Speaker 1: first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina
Speaker 1: massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver
Speaker 1: unit last year, worse than the league next to New England,
Speaker 1: they've actually upgraded. So starters are now backups, and it's like, oh,
Speaker 1: mingo can be a three or a four, not a
Speaker 1: one or two. I look at Carolina, I'd go money line.
Speaker 1: I think they win this game straight out.
Speaker 4: Sharper square, dude, you are insu knife sharp right now.
Speaker 4: That is you have gone from kind of meh mid
Speaker 4: as the kids like to say, to full on super sharp.
Speaker 4: Carolina has been a team that at the Action Network
Speaker 4: we have been hammering all off season. We have been
Speaker 4: hammering their season win total over that jumped up from
Speaker 4: four and a half to five and a half. We
Speaker 4: have been having hammering their odds to win the division.
Speaker 4: Everything about this team last year, and you and I
Speaker 4: talked a lot about this in previous seasons. We do
Speaker 4: this thing called luck rankings, So it basically takes all
Speaker 4: of the randomness of football and puts it into a
Speaker 4: formula and then applies it throughout the season. Last year,
Speaker 4: the Panthers were one of the most unlucky teams in
Speaker 4: the NFL that is always bound to regress. In sort
Speaker 4: of very analytic terms, they won about a game and
Speaker 4: a half less than they should have based on the
Speaker 4: stats and the randomness of games. So now all of
Speaker 4: a sudden, they've improved their offensive line, right, They've got
Speaker 4: a couple of new guards, They've improved at receiver, They've
Speaker 4: improved their coaching. Let's be very clear, Dave Canalis the
Speaker 4: new head coach, he was the head coach. He was
Speaker 4: the coordinator in Seattle when Gino Smith went from journeyman
Speaker 4: to pro bowler. He was the coordinator for Tampa Bay
Speaker 4: when Baker Mayfield went from journeyman to leading the team
Speaker 4: to the playoffs. Now, all of a sudden, he's got
Speaker 4: Bryce Young, who there's a lot of negativity about. That's
Speaker 4: why this line is so inflated. This line was at
Speaker 4: four and a half. It's gone down to four because
Speaker 4: wise guys are betting it. And you cited about the Saints.
Speaker 4: There was a survey before the seat, before we got
Speaker 4: the preseason, which fan base had the least optimism about
Speaker 4: their team. It was the New Orleans Saints. Who has
Speaker 4: the shortest odds to be fired first Dennis Allen, who
Speaker 4: is hearing footsteps from Spencer Rattler right now Derek Carr.
Speaker 4: Dennis Allen and Derek Carr in their respective positions as
Speaker 4: head coach and quarterback, are two of the worst against
Speaker 4: the spread of any grouping for the past twenty years.
Speaker 4: They are terrible as favorites, also just generally bad. Dennis
Speaker 4: Allen is historically bad as a head coach with the
Speaker 4: minimum seventy games, which is what he has. So you
Speaker 4: are spot on one stat for you NFL Division underdogs
Speaker 4: in Week one since twenty fourteen. So the Panthers as
Speaker 4: underdogs to the Saints seventy one percent against the spread,
Speaker 4: not only that they covered the spread by an average
Speaker 4: of five points per game, which largely says I agree
Speaker 4: with you. He could take a little bit of a
Speaker 4: taste and I never mind this like a quarter unit
Speaker 4: on the underdog to win outright, all.
Speaker 1: Right, whether concern could be a monsoon, but commanders plus
Speaker 1: three and a half at the bucks. I think Tampa
Speaker 1: has to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go
Speaker 1: watch Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are.
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden Daniels. Dan Quinn
Speaker 1: was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator.
Speaker 1: I think this coordinator. I talked to a GM that
Speaker 1: hired him, Steve Kin. He said, Cliff is great. He said,
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's an NFL head coach, the
Speaker 1: discipline is an issue, but as an NFL coordinator or
Speaker 1: a college coach, he said, I would back him forever.
Speaker 1: This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's
Speaker 1: personnel's find Tampa's guessing. I think they pull back as
Speaker 1: a team. This year, Tampa. I'm going to take Commanders
Speaker 1: plus three and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's sharp. I mean it's not the favorite. Like
Speaker 4: if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend.
Speaker 4: This is probably seventh or eighth. Right, I will be
Speaker 4: playing the Commanders. But this team right now, I just
Speaker 4: talked about the luck rankings the Buccaneers and you noted
Speaker 4: there's going to be some regression. The Buccaneers were amongst
Speaker 4: the luckiest teams in the NFL last year and the
Speaker 4: Commanders were one of the ten most unlucky. So just
Speaker 4: the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think
Speaker 4: in a higher than it should be point spread because
Speaker 4: of perception. Right, the Commander's number two, number three overall.
Speaker 4: Pick the Buccaneers. They made the playoffs, they had a
Speaker 4: good run. They have lost important aspects of that team,
Speaker 4: specifically Dave knallis Baker fourteen and twenty six in his
Speaker 4: career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take
Speaker 4: the command So the wise guys, you're with you.
Speaker 1: An interesting game. I don't like big favorites in the
Speaker 1: opening week, and I think Bo Nicks and Sean Payton
Speaker 1: are going to be excellent together compared to what the
Speaker 1: market predicts. I think they're a seven win team, not
Speaker 1: a four win team. Do not like him here rookies
Speaker 1: starting Week one on the road against a very sharp
Speaker 1: maybe the next Demko Ryan's defensive coach Seattle. I like
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll last two years they underwhelmed. They have better talent.
Speaker 1: I mean offensively, it's Noah's Ark, two receivers, two tight ends,
Speaker 1: two running backs, two tackles. I like everything. I think
Speaker 1: Seattle minus six is to play. This is a rough spot,
Speaker 1: and I like Bonnicks. This is a rough opening week.
Speaker 1: I take Seattle minus six.
Speaker 4: Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. Historically, rookie quarterbacks
Speaker 4: on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks
Speaker 4: on the road average eighteen point per game the past
Speaker 4: ten years. It is not a good spot. There is
Speaker 4: a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald's. They
Speaker 4: loved the game plans he put together when he was
Speaker 4: the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much
Speaker 4: better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing
Speaker 4: here is just a little bit of a difference in
Speaker 4: talent on the roster. Historically wise guys, they don't like
Speaker 4: to bet against Sean Payton, like Sean Payton is their
Speaker 4: favorite coach, right along with Mike Tomlin. But Mike McDonald's
Speaker 4: in the spot like they look at him not as
Speaker 4: a rookie head coach, and a lot of ways the
Speaker 4: way that people looked at Demiko Rans last year. They
Speaker 4: got a lot of faith in what he can do.
Speaker 4: So whise, guys, you're with you.
Speaker 1: I'm going to take Jets plus four and a half
Speaker 1: against the Niners. It's a noisy game the Baggage Bowl.
Speaker 1: But Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do
Speaker 1: worry about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they lost
Speaker 1: huff to the Eagles, but I don't worry too much
Speaker 1: about pass rush. I don't like the Niners offensive line,
Speaker 1: especially when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels
Speaker 1: like it's just too rich. I don't know if they win,
Speaker 1: but god, I don't get the line at all. I
Speaker 1: would take the Jets plus four and a half sharper.
Speaker 4: Square, totally sharp. It's what's really interesting about this colin
Speaker 4: is since Trent Williams signed, the line has moved a
Speaker 4: full point from three and a half to four and
Speaker 4: a half. That's how much bookmakers and then the public
Speaker 4: betters believe Trent Williams was worth. They have steamed this
Speaker 4: line and Whilse guys are happy to take to four
Speaker 4: and a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers, that's the weakness of their team, right,
Speaker 4: And even with Trump Williams, who is probably the best
Speaker 4: left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask
Speaker 4: that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in
Speaker 4: the way he can move the ball around that they're
Speaker 4: able to get away with having an offensive line that
Speaker 4: is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of
Speaker 4: the best defensive lines in the NFL, and I agree
Speaker 4: with you about Hassan Raddick. The guy hasn't played for
Speaker 4: the Jets at all, so they don't really know what
Speaker 4: they're missing. And obviously Bryce hoff being gone is an impact.
Speaker 4: But they have a stout defensive line. They will find
Speaker 4: a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line.
Speaker 4: The wise guys love love the Jets in this spot.
Speaker 1: Okay, finally a game I missed. I am betting you
Speaker 1: it's Colts plus the points I know it's the Colt
Speaker 1: plus the point is it, of course it is.
Speaker 4: I n yeah, it's one hundred percent the Colts plus
Speaker 4: I think you can get them plus three some places
Speaker 4: plus three and a half. Now this line was two
Speaker 4: and a half forty eight hours ago. The public is
Speaker 4: steaming in on the Texans, and the wise guys are
Speaker 4: buying on the Colts, and look, it's a little tricky
Speaker 4: Anthony and Richardson has basically played like seventeen games at
Speaker 4: quarterback since high school, right, and then you got the
Speaker 4: Texans who look like they are all world. But I
Speaker 4: do want to give some context here. The Texans do
Speaker 4: not win the AFC South if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured.
Speaker 4: The Colts almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshew playing
Speaker 4: the majority of the games last season. I think Shane
Speaker 4: Steiken is a genius of the coach and what he
Speaker 4: did with Minshew and what he was starting to do
Speaker 4: with Anthony Richardson is brilliant. And I think the level
Speaker 4: of play that the Eagles had last year on offense
Speaker 4: and what you saw from the Colts is a direct
Speaker 4: correlation between Shane Steiken being an Indie and not being
Speaker 4: with Philly anymore. I think there's a huge advantage there
Speaker 4: also to repeat division underdogs thirty seven to fifteen and
Speaker 4: one against the spread in week one since twenty fourteen seventy.
Speaker 4: This is a really good spot for the Colts against
Speaker 4: a overvalued Texans team.
Speaker 1: I want you to just give my audience something here,
Speaker 1: just just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So
Speaker 1: I think the Rams the last two years, last year
Speaker 1: and this year are undervalued. But their old line is
Speaker 1: a bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVeagh and
Speaker 1: Stafford getting three and a half against an average defense
Speaker 1: feels like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot.
Speaker 1: I don't like their old line Hutchison had, according to
Speaker 1: you know, all the Lion news. They're like, he's now
Speaker 1: the best defensive rush end in the league. He's just
Speaker 1: tearing it up. I look at this line, I think
Speaker 1: McVeigh Stafford plus three and a half. But there's something
Speaker 1: that tells me, stay away, educate me.
Speaker 4: Your instincts are spot on. And this was the artist game.
Speaker 4: The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's
Speaker 4: called our Big Balls Bet of the Week, and it's
Speaker 4: the bet We know it's hard to make, but you
Speaker 4: one hundred percent have to have the courage to make it.
Speaker 4: This week it is the Detroit Lions minus three and
Speaker 4: a half over the Los Angeles Rams. And who likes
Speaker 4: to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've
Speaker 4: given you all these trends. But here's the thing about
Speaker 4: these trends. Fifty eight percent sixty one percent, What that
Speaker 4: really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an
Speaker 4: edge if you bet at long term. What I'm trying
Speaker 4: to do here is thread the needle and catch a
Speaker 4: falling knife where the other forty percent of the time, right,
Speaker 4: it doesn't work right, right? And so look, I love
Speaker 4: the Rams and we have made so much money on
Speaker 4: the Rams the past couple of years because I do
Speaker 4: think Matthew Stafford is probably the most, if it's possible,
Speaker 4: the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the cover
Speaker 4: of Top three, top four, and he should. If there
Speaker 4: was a great video this fall this offseason of CJ.
Speaker 4: Shaud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch, it was
Speaker 4: Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer.
Speaker 4: And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was
Speaker 4: out and turned Puka Nakua into an all world receiver.
Speaker 4: He is brilliant and I really want to bet the Rams,
Speaker 4: but here's the problem, and I want to fade the
Speaker 4: Lions because the variant is so high when you're betting
Speaker 4: on a Dan Campbell team, because of the way he
Speaker 4: goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you,
Speaker 4: as it did in the NFC title game. And when
Speaker 4: the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good. And
Speaker 4: when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet,
Speaker 4: they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line,
Speaker 4: they look at the defensive line. That's where they start.
Speaker 4: They don't start on the edges, they don't start with
Speaker 4: the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of
Speaker 4: a few teams with top five offensive line top five
Speaker 4: defensive line pines on one side. Then you mentioned Aiden Hutchinson.
Speaker 4: I bet Ada Hutchinson fourteen to one to leave the
Speaker 4: league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how
Speaker 4: this guy has gotten better and better. And last year
Speaker 4: he was dominant no matter what this situation was, no
Speaker 4: matter how often he was being double team he consistently
Speaker 4: got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack.
Speaker 4: So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait
Speaker 4: a second. Aaron Donald retired offensive line for the Rams
Speaker 4: in trouble. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread to start
Speaker 4: the season in his career, Jared Goff twenty five to
Speaker 4: nine against the spread in doors. Jared Goff the most
Speaker 4: profitable quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan
Speaker 4: Campbell the most profitable coach against the spread the past
Speaker 4: five years. I know, like it's hard to bet on
Speaker 4: a more than a field goal favorite in a game
Speaker 4: that ended as a very short win for the line
Speaker 4: last year in the playoffs, I think the lines have
Speaker 4: gotten better. I think the Rams have stagnated or a
Speaker 4: little bit less, a little bit worse because their talent
Speaker 4: isn't as good. So it hurts, but I'm on the lines.
Speaker 1: So one of the things John that really jumped out
Speaker 1: to me, and I said this to start my rant,
Speaker 1: is that unlike the NFL, these are young kids, practice limitations,
Speaker 1: no preseason. I would be completely okay to watch a
Speaker 1: sloppy first half. I thought USC six penalties, great situational
Speaker 1: football in the red zone, very good two minute drives,
Speaker 1: handled timeouts well, no turnovers again, very few penalties, two
Speaker 1: freshmen on the offensive line, no real breakdowns. Alignments were great.
Speaker 1: I thought USC more than anything. I thought they looked tight,
Speaker 1: really buttoned up John the whole off. It's his freshman
Speaker 1: and sophomores. I thought they looked great.
Speaker 2: Colin, you get to take a victory lap for the
Speaker 2: next seven days, loud and clear pound that table. To me,
Speaker 2: two things really stood out first and foremost the size
Speaker 2: of the defenders. I would say over the last decade
Speaker 2: they felt small. They've had a guy or two here
Speaker 2: on defense, but for the most part, they've had too
Speaker 2: many guys that look like me, you know, in the
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll Heyday and all these SEC teams. The visual
Speaker 2: they showed of the transformation of the body types during
Speaker 2: the game, I mean guys going from two thirty to
Speaker 2: two sixty in an offseason was evident. Because the LSU
Speaker 2: team has they got a top fifteen tackle, they got
Speaker 2: another guy who's pretty raw, who's going to go in
Speaker 2: the top thirty. The wide receiver, the number two looks
Speaker 2: like an NFL guy. I mean, they had NFL guys
Speaker 2: everywhere USC tackled physically, they didn't get shoved around. And
Speaker 2: I think what really changed is the last two years
Speaker 2: with Caleb and rightfully so they wrote him like he
Speaker 2: was Steph Curry or Lebron James. Yeah, it was kind
Speaker 2: of like an individual, not a team, and it worked
Speaker 2: two years ago. Last year at Backfire because the defense
Speaker 2: was totally terrible, didn't they feel like a team? Didn't
Speaker 2: they just feel like a group of guys that there
Speaker 2: wasn't one necessity. I mean everyone was making place that
Speaker 2: they felt like a total unit. And listen, you were
Speaker 2: hammering this. I didn't believe Miller. Moss clearly's pretty good.
Speaker 2: He's definitely tough, and Lincoln had the boys ready and
Speaker 2: they they could have folded there in the second half,
Speaker 2: and it was LSU that folded in. This why Brian
Speaker 2: Kelly kind of snapped after the game.
Speaker 1: So the Big Ten went seventeen and one. And this
Speaker 1: is something I thought about Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC,
Speaker 1: especially Texas and the way they can recruit that state.
Speaker 1: It makes it a better conference. But adding Washington, Oregon
Speaker 1: and USC to the Big Ten is not a slight upgrade.
Speaker 1: I could argue that after Ohio State, now that Harva
Speaker 1: is gone, after Ohio State. If I said the next
Speaker 1: five years, the second, third, fourth, and fifth best teams
Speaker 1: in the Big Ten were Oregon, USC, Michigan, Washington. Like,
Speaker 1: I don't think it's crazy to suggest that adding three
Speaker 1: of the best four programs in the conference, if Utah
Speaker 1: always counts, I think in that foursome, but with the
Speaker 1: right coach USC, Oregon, Washington, those are playoff teams every
Speaker 1: time Washington's had a good coach, Don James, Rick Neuheisel,
Speaker 1: Chris Peterson, Kaitlin de boor they vy for a national championship.
Speaker 1: So it's like, I don't think people understand it's Texas
Speaker 1: Oklahoma make the SEC thicker. You added three on any
Speaker 1: given year top twelve programs to the Big Ten, may
Speaker 1: it be a better overall conference?
Speaker 2: Now, I think over the course of time, I think
Speaker 2: this year there's gonna be a lot of reaction to
Speaker 2: to the SEC. Their quarterback play, Colin, I mean, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna give Oregon a little bit of a pass. I
Speaker 2: mean that game was really weird. They played boys. They
Speaker 2: played boys. This week, they better kick their ass and
Speaker 2: kind of get after it because that was that was bizarre.
Speaker 2: The quarterback play. I didn't know that much about him.
Speaker 2: I'm sure you heard his name, the Nico kid from
Speaker 2: Los Angeles. That's Tennessee's quarterback. I got loose for you.
Speaker 2: That guy's pretty special. Jackson dart Ole, Miss. They're pretty
Speaker 2: good obviously, the two quarterbacks. The quarterback Dylan Gabriels at
Speaker 2: Oregon because they told him, you're not going to start.
Speaker 2: Jackson Arnold's gonna start. He's pretty good too. Their high
Speaker 2: end teams with their quarterbacks are pretty obviously Carson Beck
Speaker 2: and Georgia. Over the course of time. I think, you know,
Speaker 2: USC is only going to get better if they keep
Speaker 2: looking like this over the next two or three years.
Speaker 2: Oregon's not going anywhere. But I got a lot of
Speaker 2: question marks about Wisconsin, about Minnesota, like the four or five,
Speaker 2: six seven group. Penn State you feel pretty good at
Speaker 2: Penn State could be a major problem. I was texting
Speaker 2: scouts all week and long. I mean, they're front sevens
Speaker 2: full of NFL guys, and if that quarterback takes a
Speaker 2: big step, that game got like delayed for twenty five hours.
Speaker 2: But they could be a serious factor, I mean a
Speaker 2: serious factor this year. So I think the high end
Speaker 2: of the Big ten in the sec. It's pretty clear
Speaker 2: that though Miami, I would still kind of red flag
Speaker 2: the quarterback and be up and down. But they're pretty talented.
Speaker 1: So I think that Tom Brady situation's fascinating. I had
Speaker 1: people asking me in the airport about this. I went
Speaker 1: golfing and I had a couple of people ask me
Speaker 1: about the story that he's going to be. You know,
Speaker 1: he's trying to be a raider's owner, and if you're
Speaker 1: a raider's owner, there are limitations on what you can
Speaker 1: do in the NFL.
Speaker 2: And had you heard about that? Had you heard about
Speaker 2: that before like in the Halls.
Speaker 1: House, No, and so, And it's one of those things
Speaker 1: that that's above my pay grade. That's management. But so
Speaker 1: for people that don't know, he can't criticize officials, he
Speaker 1: can't be in certain meetings, production meetings. I don't think
Speaker 1: the production meetings is a big deal. I think have
Speaker 1: you been watching this stuff? That Brady is allowing people
Speaker 1: to see the binders he has from every single season,
Speaker 1: everybody he ever faced. His preparation is even compared to
Speaker 1: people who spend a lot of time preparing, is literally
Speaker 1: next level. And he just got off the field. I
Speaker 1: don't worry about any of that. The only part of
Speaker 1: it that concerns me, and it only may happen once
Speaker 1: every two weeks, eight times a year that you may
Speaker 1: have to call the officials and go, that's a blown call.
Speaker 1: Now replay helps reverse a lot of miscalls. So again,
Speaker 1: it's not the seventies eighties. But when I read all
Speaker 1: the stuff, I thought, do you view it as credibility
Speaker 1: dinged if he can't rip officials? And I'm not saying rip,
Speaker 1: but be question officiating.
Speaker 2: Listen. I like my announcers. I think once everyone started
Speaker 2: getting on Romo, Troyikman kind of got a swag back
Speaker 2: and he'll light into somebody and I like that. Now
Speaker 2: some people may be like more rosier. But here's the
Speaker 2: one thing, there's twenty thirty million people watching this game.
Speaker 2: When stuff screwed up. Now, at football, you have a
Speaker 2: pretty good idea, and people don't like to hear rose
Speaker 2: colored glasses when stuff's pretty obvious. I thought, it's not
Speaker 2: only officials. This isn't like certain things like with teams.
Speaker 2: To me, the restrictions that I read feel like god
Speaker 2: part of my big question mark with Tom because turn
Speaker 2: him on your show. He's he's awesome. I mean his
Speaker 2: ability to speak complicated stuff, but I was like, let
Speaker 2: his true personality come out. That he's known as a
Speaker 2: great teammate. Part of that is being one of the
Speaker 2: guys obviously ribbing some people. I think that's pretty difficult.
Speaker 2: It will not be difficult for him to get the
Speaker 2: coaches and the players on the phone, right, that's call
Speaker 2: him back.
Speaker 1: That doesn't feel like a deal, That doesn't matter at all.
Speaker 2: That's Peyton talks about that sometimes. On Monday night. I
Speaker 2: talked to Sean McVeigh on his drive home. They can
Speaker 2: go to him and Peyton get anybody on the phone
Speaker 2: in the NFL in five minutes. I do think him
Speaker 2: not being able to do that. If that's really serious,
Speaker 2: can you argue and listen. I'm as pro capitalism as anybody,
Speaker 2: but this feels like it's going to be pretty tough
Speaker 2: if you one day. Actually, he's just never allowed to
Speaker 2: do that. It is pretty difficult to do your job
Speaker 2: if there are legit restrictions. Because it's easy this year,
Speaker 2: but what about five years from now when you have
Speaker 2: some coaches you know nothing about. Those production meetings do
Speaker 2: hold some value, right, Y's one thing I'm not saying
Speaker 2: to like divest from the Raiders, because that's pretty good
Speaker 2: investment invested in the NFL, but it feels pretty difficult.
Speaker 2: Fox has given them almost four hundred million dollars.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, I rent all the restrictions and listen.
Speaker 1: I'm I'm a corporate opinionist, so essentially, I have strong
Speaker 1: opinions for companies ESPN and Fox that have rights with everybody.
Speaker 1: And my take has always been I can say pretty
Speaker 1: much everything and anything, but I don't make it personal.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to go after Roger Goodell personally or
Speaker 1: Adam Silver, even now that we don't have the NBA.
Speaker 1: I try to be fair with people, even when I'm
Speaker 1: critical of people, like for a year, even with Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 1: I've said he is a top twenty quarterback. I think
Speaker 1: he's a great guy. He and Emily are wonderful people.
Speaker 1: I root for the guy. I thought he was immature
Speaker 1: when he came into the league. So I try to
Speaker 1: qualify stuff I don't want to. I don't want to
Speaker 1: be a sledgehammer. I don't want to be an anvil
Speaker 1: because I'm in these relationships too. I see these commissioners,
Speaker 1: I see these coaches. I don't want to be a jerk.
Speaker 1: I want to be somewhat respected as a generalist or
Speaker 1: an opinionist. But the one that did jump out to
Speaker 1: me was the officiating because, and again Tom's such a
Speaker 1: prep monster. I don't worry about the other stuff, but
Speaker 1: that one I think. I think what it would be.
Speaker 1: It wouldn't affect him, but it would mean a lot
Speaker 1: of bad press for him and Fox, and I think
Speaker 1: corporations don't like that the volume. Thanks so much for listening.
Speaker 1: If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and
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