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Speaker 1: The volume. Grab your smartphone download the game Time app.

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Speaker 1: Time today. What time is it? Game Time? If you

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Speaker 1: wonder why the NFL is king on television, twenty seven

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Speaker 1: to twenty tonight was a great example by that much

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Speaker 1: a doe decides the game. Listen. Baltimore was outplayed for

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Speaker 1: big chunks of this thing and almost almost tied it.

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Speaker 1: They almost certainly would have gone for two in the win.

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Speaker 1: And that's why Baltimore is so dangerous. You know. Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson did not throw the ball down the field effectively,

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Speaker 1: nor has he ever as well as Patrick Mahomes. Although

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Speaker 1: Mahomes did not throw the ball down the field much

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Speaker 1: last year because it was one of the worst receiving

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Speaker 1: cores in the league. With Worthy, now that's a deep threat.

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Speaker 1: They've added some dimensions and over the top receiver Juju

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Speaker 1: Smith Schuster will become more productive over time. He just

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Speaker 1: got reacquired, so Watson Rice now where she Rice looks

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Speaker 1: like a number one. Worthy's going to be a gadget

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Speaker 1: guy early. I don't think he's a heavy volume guy,

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Speaker 1: a nine to ten catch guy, but he adds an

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Speaker 1: element they didn't have. He's an over the top playmaker.

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Speaker 1: But it's interesting watching Baltimore. They had a lot of

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Speaker 1: offensive penalty, especially early in the game. They don't throw

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Speaker 1: the ball down the field enough. And then you get

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Speaker 1: that final drive by Lamar Jackson, where I mean, honestly,

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Speaker 1: he reminds me of like a great high school player

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Speaker 1: where he's just so much better than everybody else on

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Speaker 1: the field. He's like a high school football game and

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Speaker 1: there's one D one prospect and it's the quarterback and

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Speaker 1: he's just running around making all these plays happen. Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson makes other great pro football players look slow and unathletic,

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Speaker 1: and that's why I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes

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Speaker 1: and Peyton Manning probably wasn't Brady, you know, and Mickelson

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Speaker 1: wasn't Tiger Woods, and Barkley was an MJ. Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 1: is so productive, he cares so much. Now, I thought,

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Speaker 1: my one real negative with Lamar Jackson you can't get

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Speaker 1: hit that many times. I'm sorry, you can't last seventeen

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Speaker 1: games in the regular season, two or three playoff games

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Speaker 1: played like that. Lamar's lost weight, he's thinner, and he

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Speaker 1: took a beating tonight. Now I think this game means

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Speaker 1: so much. Lamar not gonna slide, He's not gonna run

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Speaker 1: out of bounds against Kansas City. So I don't think

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Speaker 1: Lamar is going to play like this, this this sort

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Speaker 1: of physical football game on average. But he took a

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Speaker 1: beating tonight, and that Kansas City defense is fast and

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Speaker 1: physical that you have to reduce. You can't play like that.

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Speaker 1: But I will defend Lamar to the very end. He

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Speaker 1: is such a remarkable player, you know, he just he

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Speaker 1: doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently. But he

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Speaker 1: finally has a really nice group of receivers. Isaiah Likelely

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Speaker 1: is terrific. That's the football game. And the fact that

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Speaker 1: that guy went down in the back of the end zone.

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Speaker 1: I thought he broke his ribs. I mean, he just

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Speaker 1: slammed down on the corner where it's not you know,

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Speaker 1: it's not padded very well, gets up and he's making plays.

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Speaker 1: What a gamer. You know, I look at my notes

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Speaker 1: over the course of the game. I think here's the

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Speaker 1: really good news for Kansas City. Last year. It's often

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Speaker 1: discussed right ad nauseum, that receiving course bad Rashi Rice

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Speaker 1: was young. He felt like maybe a two. He felt

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Speaker 1: like a one tonight. You know, now, is he a

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Speaker 1: great one? Is he a top five to one? Is

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Speaker 1: he see the lamb? Is he Devontae Adams? No, but

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Speaker 1: he felt like a real, go to, high volume, thirteen targets,

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Speaker 1: nine catch guy for them they have now, Noah, great,

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Speaker 1: they've got a second tight end. Watson's around, Juju Smith,

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Speaker 1: Schuster and again Xavi are worthy. You know, I joked

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Speaker 1: when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy.

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Speaker 1: He's one hundred and sixty five pounds. You know, I

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Speaker 1: don't think that he's going to lead them to the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. But he adds a dimension to an offense

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Speaker 1: that since Tyreek Hill left, they don't have a downfield threat.

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Speaker 1: So you know, for the longest time of the game,

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Speaker 1: he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown, but

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Speaker 1: blown coverage later he gets a second touchdown and you

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Speaker 1: have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line.

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Speaker 1: Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody

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Speaker 1: scared you down the field. Well, now they have a

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Speaker 1: one in Rashi Rice, have a downfield threat. They have

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Speaker 1: multiple Watts and Noah Gray, Travis Kelcey. They've solved their

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Speaker 1: weapons issue. For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pichecko?

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Speaker 1: What did he drop to the seventh round? How did

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Speaker 1: they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane.

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Speaker 1: It's just it's amazing to me. You get to the

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Speaker 1: fourteenth player in the NBA draft, you're out of players.

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Speaker 1: Rock Perty's the last gun I taken. And Isaiah Pacheco

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Speaker 1: I think he was a seventh round guy. God, how

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Speaker 1: did all these gms watch film and just keep passing

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Speaker 1: on him. He's impossible to bring down, run so hard

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Speaker 1: he can catch it out of the backfield. What a

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Speaker 1: weapon he is? So Kansas City's weapons shortage, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be fine there. And this is you're just looking at

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Speaker 1: two great organizations. I love watching these two play. And

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Speaker 1: there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: You know, they led twenty to ten at one point

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Speaker 1: at I kind of felt first half, I thought Baltimore

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Speaker 1: was just kind of trying to find its footing. They

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Speaker 1: weren't throwing the ball down the field. Second half, Kansas

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Speaker 1: City and that screen game pulls away. I thought, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you watch that game, you could say Kansas City

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Speaker 1: controlled big chunks of it. And here comes Lamar just

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Speaker 1: putting the team on his back, taking too many shots,

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Speaker 1: running down the field, making big plays. The guy's just

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Speaker 1: an Alzheimer, just an absolute ald timer. But you know,

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Speaker 1: sports is like this. You know, if you take Tiger

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Speaker 1: Woods out, think how many tour events Mickelson wins. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Philip he had to have over like forty five tour wins.

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Speaker 1: Didn't he take out one guy? Take out Barkley and

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Speaker 1: it changes take out MJ. It changes Barkley's career with titles,

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Speaker 1: take out John Elway's career, Joe Montana, Brady, There's so

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Speaker 1: many great athletes who we spend so much time criticizing

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Speaker 1: because they can't beat the legend. I talked about that

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Speaker 1: on FS one today. God Lamar is just so unique

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Speaker 1: and so gifted, but he took a beating tonight and

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Speaker 1: you just can't play that way. A day with Baltimore

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Speaker 1: and Kansas City each to night, all the weapons, all

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Speaker 1: the talented players on the perimeter and running backs, I

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Speaker 1: kept thinking, does Buffalo match up with these guys now

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Speaker 1: that Stefan Diggs is out? Like I'm watching all these

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Speaker 1: weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore, including their quarterbacks. You

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Speaker 1: know who matches up in the AFC Houston. Houston's got

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Speaker 1: these kind of weapons, adding Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Nico'collins,

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Speaker 1: c J. Stroud, Like I'm both these teams tonight. I

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Speaker 1: mean it's tight ends, it's wide receivers, it's slot guys,

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Speaker 1: it's running backs, it's all time quarterbacks. You know Buffalo

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Speaker 1: is I like cook a couple good tight ends, a

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Speaker 1: rookie receiver. You know, Buffalo maybe what Kansas City was

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Speaker 1: last year, and they may be weapons short. And that's

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Speaker 1: why a lot of people, myself included kind of like Houston.

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Speaker 1: I mean, at some point last year may have been

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Speaker 1: the year to beat Kansas City. That may have been

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Speaker 1: the year. You know, they weren't going to have home field,

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Speaker 1: They couldn't beat you in a track meet. They had

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Speaker 1: the gate keep the games pretty close and low scoring.

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Speaker 1: Now this team's back to I mean again, this is

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Speaker 1: Worthy's first game. What's Xavi, You're Worthy going to do?

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Speaker 1: When we gate through thirteen? We ten through seventeen. So

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Speaker 1: last year may have been the year to get Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: What a night. I chewed two pieces of my neuro

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Speaker 1: gum to stay up tonight. I'm not messing around now.

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Speaker 1: I may be staring at the ceiling at one in

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Speaker 1: the morning. That was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so

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Speaker 1: lucky to do what I do for a living. I'm

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Speaker 1: sitting there tonight. I ordered door Dash, eating some Mexican food,

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Speaker 1: and I'm sitting there watching that and I'm like, I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is how good is this? Arrowhead? Mahomes Reed, Harball,

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. I'll just say it again, Baltimore didn't play

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Speaker 1: particularly well and it was this close. So you can

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Speaker 1: sell all your Ravens stock. I'm buying it. I didn't

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Speaker 1: think they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played

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Speaker 1: that well. And he's driving him down against that incredible defense,

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Speaker 1: you know, because of Reid and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense.

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Speaker 1: He'll just never get the love. It is so fast,

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Speaker 1: so twitchy, consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers

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Speaker 1: that move well. That's it where Baltimore probably goes for

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Speaker 1: two and has a chance to win. When you don't

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Speaker 1: play particularly well on the road and narrowhead and almost

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Speaker 1: beat the Chiefs, I'd be worried these two will meet again.

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Speaker 1: That's what it feels like to me. One of the

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Speaker 1: more interesting games this weekend is Colorado and Deon Sanders

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Speaker 1: and all he brings to the table at Nebraska. Now,

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Speaker 1: Travis Hunter and Shader Sanders for the Buffaloes are the

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Speaker 1: two best players in the game, and they alone may

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Speaker 1: be able to carry Colorado to the win. But I

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Speaker 1: like Nebraska for a lot of reasons. Number one is,

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Speaker 1: if you go to last year, nobody lost more close

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Speaker 1: games down the stretch than Nebraska. They were close. They

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Speaker 1: needed a couple of transfers, they needed to get a

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Speaker 1: little older on the defensive side. It didn't matter if

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Speaker 1: it was Iowa, it was Maryland, it was Michigan State.

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Speaker 1: They lost by a field goal, it felt like every week,

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Speaker 1: and they were shooting themselves in the foot with a

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Speaker 1: lot of ugly turnovers. This defense now is different. Six seniors,

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Speaker 1: five junior start and that matters a lot of starts

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Speaker 1: against the Colorado offense and offensive line that I haven't

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Speaker 1: loved for the last couple of years. Again, Colorado's got

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Speaker 1: the two best players in this game, maybe the three

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Speaker 1: or four. Best depth experience I like Nebraska. The other

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Speaker 1: thing is that Colorado has by and large last three

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Speaker 1: matchups is at one Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also, I

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Speaker 1: tend to look at programs. I think there's baby steps.

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Speaker 1: I think when you take over a program, first of all,

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Speaker 1: the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing

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Speaker 1: the gap. Nebraska last year close losses. Generally those kind

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Speaker 1: of teams the following year start turning those into close wins,

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Speaker 1: and then the following year, if you have the right

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Speaker 1: coach and the right players, you have decisive wins. I

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Speaker 1: don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet

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Speaker 1: against the better teams on their schedule, but I don't

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Speaker 1: think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule.

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Speaker 1: I like Nebraska by ten points. I think their defense,

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Speaker 1: though it won't be a perfect game A Shadure Sanders,

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Speaker 1: he moves well. I really like him. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: almost feel like if Shadure Sanders, if you're gonna judge

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Speaker 1: him just on football, he could be the number one

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Speaker 1: pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball,

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Speaker 1: moving pocket, moving left, moving moving forward. He has tremendous

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Speaker 1: ball placement, and he's kind of what everybody's looking for.

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Speaker 1: He can win in the pocket, he can win off script.

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Speaker 1: So I think Colorado is gonna score some points to

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Speaker 1: be a handful. But I think Matt Ruhle situationally, is

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Speaker 1: a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger presence. Dion

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Speaker 1: maybe a better recruiter. But I mean Nebraska was I

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Speaker 1: looked it up this morning, top thirty and tackles for

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Speaker 1: loss last season and now this defense six seniors, five juniors,

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Speaker 1: is even older. They got that new quarterback, Dylan Reyola.

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Speaker 2: They like him.

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Speaker 1: They are more than capable at quarterback. He's not Shugar Sanders,

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Speaker 1: but he's fine. Nebraska at home more experienced defense. Matt

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Speaker 1: Rule losing close to now winning close. I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: him by about eight to ten points here, Litt thirty

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Speaker 1: three twenty four kind of feels like that to me.

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Speaker 1: I like the Huskers, all right, the game of the day,

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Speaker 1: it's on fock is Texas their first ever meeting in

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Speaker 1: the Big House against Michigan. It's remarkable to think about

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Speaker 1: two brands that big that have never faced in the

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Speaker 1: big house. Listen, I was a Michigan believer all last year.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Harbaugh on the sidelines are not They were

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Speaker 1: hammering people. But Michigan lost eight of eleven offensive starters,

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Speaker 1: a star quarterback, a star receiver, a star back, top

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Speaker 1: offensive lineman, and those were also in many instances leaders.

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Speaker 1: So not only do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I

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Speaker 1: think the cultural vibe of the toughest physicality will remain

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Speaker 1: even if this coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is,

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Speaker 1: I mean, Mark Helfrich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly,

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Speaker 1: but for a year you couldn't tell the difference. I

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Speaker 1: think there's a lot of momentum program momentum for Michigan,

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Speaker 1: but they just lost too many leaders and too much

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Speaker 1: firepower on offense. And I think they're a team that

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Speaker 1: will be able to win a certain way. I think

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Speaker 1: Texas can win anyway, shootout, close, They're better at quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Now they lost three receivers to the NFL, but it's Texas,

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Speaker 1: it's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked

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Speaker 1: to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him

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Speaker 1: to differentiate in some instances starters from backups with Texas,

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Speaker 1: and we tend to rush to a judgment with these

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Speaker 1: high profile coaches A Kiffin, A Sark, a Lincoln Riley,

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Speaker 1: a Harbaugh, you can't. This stuff takes two and three years,

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Speaker 1: even with big brands to get up to speed. So

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Speaker 1: you're in the Ohio state class, you're in the Georgia

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Speaker 1: and Alabama class. This is the first time I look

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Speaker 1: at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to

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Speaker 1: toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back end.

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Speaker 2: Last year.

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Speaker 1: Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that I think Texas

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Speaker 1: has a chance to play for the national championship. I

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Speaker 1: think they bring back more experience that offensive line for Texas.

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Speaker 1: Now that's some first and second round talent. That's a

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Speaker 1: lot of starts. They may have some new receivers, that's

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Speaker 1: a lot of starts and quinn ewers from diet to

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Speaker 1: His play on the field is a little bit more

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Speaker 1: structured to me last year than what I saw initially.

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Speaker 1: Was not a big fan initially, just played to loose

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Speaker 1: to J Cutler. To me, I like Texas here now again.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a pretty low scoring game. I think

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Speaker 1: Michigan has some top defenders are at home. Even good

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Speaker 1: college teams can struggle away from home. I looked at

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Speaker 1: this morning, get opened at Texas minus four. It's now

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Speaker 1: Texas minus seven. I think the Longhorns win. I think

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Speaker 1: it's probably pretty close. But I think you'll watch that

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Speaker 1: game and from a more dynamic offense to the better quarterback,

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Speaker 1: I think you're gonna feel like Texas. They may stumble

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Speaker 1: a little early, intimidating big house. I think they pull

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Speaker 1: away late a little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio

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Speaker 1: State last couple of years. Physicality leaned on him late

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Speaker 1: third quarter on. You're going to feel like the better team,

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Speaker 1: the better roster, the better chance of the National Championship

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Speaker 1: is Texas. I like the horns here by about six.

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Speaker 1: All right, it's time for another season of Sharp or Square.

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Speaker 1: After quite a sabbatical, I am now working again on

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Speaker 1: almost a full time basis. Chad Milman, C COO of

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Speaker 1: the Action Network. The Favorites, by the way, I have

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Speaker 1: get to that later.

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Speaker 4: All the one hundred thousandd thousand, Man, we're giving away

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Speaker 1: Wow, thousand, one hundreds.

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Speaker 4: We don't do a thousand On the Volume podcast network.

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Speaker 4: We're big time.

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Speaker 1: All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I spent a

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Speaker 1: lot of time this summer in uh, you know, in

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Speaker 1: a place out east, Yes, very close to where you live.

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Speaker 1: I played a lot of golf and during that time

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Speaker 1: a lot of time to think about odds. And I

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Speaker 1: almost did not do a first week of this. And

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Speaker 1: my take has been, the world's changed. All these sharps

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Speaker 1: pick at these line one odds. I have all summer

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Speaker 1: to pick at these puppies once they're available. This is

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Speaker 1: a terrible week to bet. And then I look at

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Speaker 1: the numbers this week and I'm like, they may not

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Speaker 1: be the best, but i got a couple I like

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna start with one of them that I'm

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Speaker 1: being warned about. Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the

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Speaker 1: end of last year. I think the last couple of

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Speaker 1: drafts they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 1: I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for He's like

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Speaker 1: nobody else in the league. He's like to me, he's

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Speaker 1: a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and

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Speaker 1: Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and

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Speaker 1: a half is not only the play. I think they

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Speaker 1: could win Sharper square.

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Speaker 4: Ish like of all the games they just I'm with you, brother, like,

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Speaker 4: I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in Week one.

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Speaker 4: Arizona is a team. I'm not gonna lie to you.

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Speaker 4: Wise guys love they think that in the NFC West.

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Speaker 4: They love Seattle, they love Mike McDonald as a coach.

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Speaker 4: They are really bullish on Arizona. This number action clicked down,

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Speaker 4: got down to six. It was much higher even during

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Speaker 4: the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up. I

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Speaker 4: think there was some over exuberance on the Cardinals. And

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Speaker 4: don't forget this is the kind of game that the

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Speaker 4: Bills historically not just cover, but dominate, right, And so

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Speaker 4: there are so many unknowns in this game. Professional betters.

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Speaker 4: They are going to lean towards underdogs in Week one

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Speaker 4: and that's going to be a theme for everything we're

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Speaker 4: talking about. And I've got a lot of numbers to

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Speaker 4: back it up for folks, But this one is trickier.

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Speaker 4: I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it

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Speaker 4: goes back down to six, probably, No, don't forget six

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00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:43,239
Speaker 4: has become a lot more of a key number with

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Speaker 4: extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't

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Speaker 4: give you a definitive. I can say, if I got

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Speaker 4: to play a side, I'm playing Arizona, but I don't

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Speaker 4: think it's blazon by any means.

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Speaker 1: Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit

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Speaker 1: out here.

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Speaker 2: Goodlet's warm up.

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Speaker 4: Let's just warm up.

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Speaker 1: The one I really like is Carolina plus three and

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Speaker 1: a half of the Saints. I think New Orleans is

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Speaker 1: poorly quarterbacked and poorly coached. I think they'll be the

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Speaker 1: first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina

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Speaker 1: massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver

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Speaker 1: unit last year, worse than the league next to New England,

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Speaker 1: they've actually upgraded. So starters are now backups, and it's like, oh,

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Speaker 1: mingo can be a three or a four, not a

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Speaker 1: one or two. I look at Carolina, I'd go money line.

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Speaker 1: I think they win this game straight out.

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Speaker 4: Sharper square, dude, you are insu knife sharp right now.

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Speaker 4: That is you have gone from kind of meh mid

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Speaker 4: as the kids like to say, to full on super sharp.

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Speaker 4: Carolina has been a team that at the Action Network

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Speaker 4: we have been hammering all off season. We have been

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Speaker 4: hammering their season win total over that jumped up from

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Speaker 4: four and a half to five and a half. We

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Speaker 4: have been having hammering their odds to win the division.

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Speaker 4: Everything about this team last year, and you and I

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Speaker 4: talked a lot about this in previous seasons. We do

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Speaker 4: this thing called luck rankings, So it basically takes all

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Speaker 4: of the randomness of football and puts it into a

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Speaker 4: formula and then applies it throughout the season. Last year,

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Speaker 4: the Panthers were one of the most unlucky teams in

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Speaker 4: the NFL that is always bound to regress. In sort

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Speaker 4: of very analytic terms, they won about a game and

395
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Speaker 4: a half less than they should have based on the

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Speaker 4: stats and the randomness of games. So now all of

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Speaker 4: a sudden, they've improved their offensive line, right, They've got

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Speaker 4: a couple of new guards, They've improved at receiver, They've

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Speaker 4: improved their coaching. Let's be very clear, Dave Canalis the

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00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 4: new head coach, he was the head coach. He was

401
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Speaker 4: the coordinator in Seattle when Gino Smith went from journeyman

402
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 4: to pro bowler. He was the coordinator for Tampa Bay

403
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Speaker 4: when Baker Mayfield went from journeyman to leading the team

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Speaker 4: to the playoffs. Now, all of a sudden, he's got

405
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Speaker 4: Bryce Young, who there's a lot of negativity about. That's

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Speaker 4: why this line is so inflated. This line was at

407
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Speaker 4: four and a half. It's gone down to four because

408
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Speaker 4: wise guys are betting it. And you cited about the Saints.

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Speaker 4: There was a survey before the seat, before we got

410
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 4: the preseason, which fan base had the least optimism about

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Speaker 4: their team. It was the New Orleans Saints. Who has

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Speaker 4: the shortest odds to be fired first Dennis Allen, who

413
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 4: is hearing footsteps from Spencer Rattler right now Derek Carr.

414
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 4: Dennis Allen and Derek Carr in their respective positions as

415
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 4: head coach and quarterback, are two of the worst against

416
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Speaker 4: the spread of any grouping for the past twenty years.

417
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 4: They are terrible as favorites, also just generally bad. Dennis

418
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 4: Allen is historically bad as a head coach with the

419
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Speaker 4: minimum seventy games, which is what he has. So you

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Speaker 4: are spot on one stat for you NFL Division underdogs

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00:23:56,080 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 4: in Week one since twenty fourteen. So the Panthers as

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Speaker 4: underdogs to the Saints seventy one percent against the spread,

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Speaker 4: not only that they covered the spread by an average

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00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 4: of five points per game, which largely says I agree

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00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 4: with you. He could take a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: taste and I never mind this like a quarter unit

427
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 4: on the underdog to win outright, all.

428
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: Right, whether concern could be a monsoon, but commanders plus

429
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 1: three and a half at the bucks. I think Tampa

430
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 1: has to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go

431
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 1: watch Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are.

432
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden Daniels. Dan Quinn

433
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 1: was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator.

434
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 1: I think this coordinator. I talked to a GM that

435
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,400
Speaker 1: hired him, Steve Kin. He said, Cliff is great. He said,

436
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's an NFL head coach, the

437
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 1: discipline is an issue, but as an NFL coordinator or

438
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 1: a college coach, he said, I would back him forever.

439
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 1: This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's

440
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: personnel's find Tampa's guessing. I think they pull back as

441
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 1: a team. This year, Tampa. I'm going to take Commanders

442
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: plus three and a half sharper square.

443
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's sharp. I mean it's not the favorite. Like

444
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 4: if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend.

445
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 4: This is probably seventh or eighth. Right, I will be

446
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 4: playing the Commanders. But this team right now, I just

447
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 4: talked about the luck rankings the Buccaneers and you noted

448
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 4: there's going to be some regression. The Buccaneers were amongst

449
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 4: the luckiest teams in the NFL last year and the

450
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 4: Commanders were one of the ten most unlucky. So just

451
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 4: the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think

452
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 4: in a higher than it should be point spread because

453
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,439
Speaker 4: of perception. Right, the Commander's number two, number three overall.

454
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 4: Pick the Buccaneers. They made the playoffs, they had a

455
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 4: good run. They have lost important aspects of that team,

456
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 4: specifically Dave knallis Baker fourteen and twenty six in his

457
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 4: career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take

458
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 4: the command So the wise guys, you're with you.

459
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 1: An interesting game. I don't like big favorites in the

460
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 1: opening week, and I think Bo Nicks and Sean Payton

461
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 1: are going to be excellent together compared to what the

462
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: market predicts. I think they're a seven win team, not

463
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 1: a four win team. Do not like him here rookies

464
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: starting Week one on the road against a very sharp

465
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: maybe the next Demko Ryan's defensive coach Seattle. I like

466
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll last two years they underwhelmed. They have better talent.

467
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: I mean offensively, it's Noah's Ark, two receivers, two tight ends,

468
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: two running backs, two tackles. I like everything. I think

469
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 1: Seattle minus six is to play. This is a rough spot,

470
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 1: and I like Bonnicks. This is a rough opening week.

471
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 1: I take Seattle minus six.

472
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. Historically, rookie quarterbacks

473
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 4: on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks

474
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 4: on the road average eighteen point per game the past

475
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,919
Speaker 4: ten years. It is not a good spot. There is

476
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:09,880
Speaker 4: a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald's. They

477
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 4: loved the game plans he put together when he was

478
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 4: the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much

479
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 4: better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing

480
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 4: here is just a little bit of a difference in

481
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 4: talent on the roster. Historically wise guys, they don't like

482
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,439
Speaker 4: to bet against Sean Payton, like Sean Payton is their

483
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 4: favorite coach, right along with Mike Tomlin. But Mike McDonald's

484
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,719
Speaker 4: in the spot like they look at him not as

485
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 4: a rookie head coach, and a lot of ways the

486
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 4: way that people looked at Demiko Rans last year. They

487
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 4: got a lot of faith in what he can do.

488
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 4: So whise, guys, you're with you.

489
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 1: I'm going to take Jets plus four and a half

490
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: against the Niners. It's a noisy game the Baggage Bowl.

491
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 1: But Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do

492
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 1: worry about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they lost

493
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 1: huff to the Eagles, but I don't worry too much

494
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: about pass rush. I don't like the Niners offensive line,

495
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 1: especially when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels

496
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 1: like it's just too rich. I don't know if they win,

497
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: but god, I don't get the line at all. I

498
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 1: would take the Jets plus four and a half sharper.

499
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 4: Square, totally sharp. It's what's really interesting about this colin

500
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:28,479
Speaker 4: is since Trent Williams signed, the line has moved a

501
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 4: full point from three and a half to four and

502
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 4: a half. That's how much bookmakers and then the public

503
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 4: betters believe Trent Williams was worth. They have steamed this

504
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 4: line and Whilse guys are happy to take to four

505
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 4: and a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to

506
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers, that's the weakness of their team, right,

507
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 4: And even with Trump Williams, who is probably the best

508
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 4: left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask

509
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 4: that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in

510
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 4: the way he can move the ball around that they're

511
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 4: able to get away with having an offensive line that

512
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 4: is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of

513
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 4: the best defensive lines in the NFL, and I agree

514
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 4: with you about Hassan Raddick. The guy hasn't played for

515
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 4: the Jets at all, so they don't really know what

516
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 4: they're missing. And obviously Bryce hoff being gone is an impact.

517
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 4: But they have a stout defensive line. They will find

518
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 4: a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line.

519
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 4: The wise guys love love the Jets in this spot.

520
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: Okay, finally a game I missed. I am betting you

521
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 1: it's Colts plus the points I know it's the Colt

522
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 1: plus the point is it, of course it is.

523
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 4: I n yeah, it's one hundred percent the Colts plus

524
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 4: I think you can get them plus three some places

525
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 4: plus three and a half. Now this line was two

526
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 4: and a half forty eight hours ago. The public is

527
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 4: steaming in on the Texans, and the wise guys are

528
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 4: buying on the Colts, and look, it's a little tricky

529
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 4: Anthony and Richardson has basically played like seventeen games at

530
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 4: quarterback since high school, right, and then you got the

531
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 4: Texans who look like they are all world. But I

532
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 4: do want to give some context here. The Texans do

533
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 4: not win the AFC South if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured.

534
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 4: The Colts almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshew playing

535
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 4: the majority of the games last season. I think Shane

536
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 4: Steiken is a genius of the coach and what he

537
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 4: did with Minshew and what he was starting to do

538
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 4: with Anthony Richardson is brilliant. And I think the level

539
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 4: of play that the Eagles had last year on offense

540
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 4: and what you saw from the Colts is a direct

541
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 4: correlation between Shane Steiken being an Indie and not being

542
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 4: with Philly anymore. I think there's a huge advantage there

543
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 4: also to repeat division underdogs thirty seven to fifteen and

544
00:30:56,840 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 4: one against the spread in week one since twenty fourteen seventy.

545
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 4: This is a really good spot for the Colts against

546
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 4: a overvalued Texans team.

547
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 1: I want you to just give my audience something here,

548
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 1: just just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So

549
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 1: I think the Rams the last two years, last year

550
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 1: and this year are undervalued. But their old line is

551
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 1: a bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVeagh and

552
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 1: Stafford getting three and a half against an average defense

553
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: feels like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot.

554
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 1: I don't like their old line Hutchison had, according to

555
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: you know, all the Lion news. They're like, he's now

556
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: the best defensive rush end in the league. He's just

557
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: tearing it up. I look at this line, I think

558
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 1: McVeigh Stafford plus three and a half. But there's something

559
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 1: that tells me, stay away, educate me.

560
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 4: Your instincts are spot on. And this was the artist game.

561
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 4: The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's

562
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 4: called our Big Balls Bet of the Week, and it's

563
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 4: the bet We know it's hard to make, but you

564
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 4: one hundred percent have to have the courage to make it.

565
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 4: This week it is the Detroit Lions minus three and

566
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 4: a half over the Los Angeles Rams. And who likes

567
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 4: to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've

568
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 4: given you all these trends. But here's the thing about

569
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 4: these trends. Fifty eight percent sixty one percent, What that

570
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 4: really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an

571
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 4: edge if you bet at long term. What I'm trying

572
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 4: to do here is thread the needle and catch a

573
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 4: falling knife where the other forty percent of the time, right,

574
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 4: it doesn't work right, right? And so look, I love

575
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 4: the Rams and we have made so much money on

576
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,479
Speaker 4: the Rams the past couple of years because I do

577
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 4: think Matthew Stafford is probably the most, if it's possible,

578
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 4: the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the cover

579
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 4: of Top three, top four, and he should. If there

580
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 4: was a great video this fall this offseason of CJ.

581
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 4: Shaud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch, it was

582
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:12,479
Speaker 4: Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer.

583
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 4: And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was

584
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 4: out and turned Puka Nakua into an all world receiver.

585
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 4: He is brilliant and I really want to bet the Rams,

586
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 4: but here's the problem, and I want to fade the

587
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 4: Lions because the variant is so high when you're betting

588
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 4: on a Dan Campbell team, because of the way he

589
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 4: goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you,

590
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 4: as it did in the NFC title game. And when

591
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 4: the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good. And

592
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 4: when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet,

593
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 4: they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line,

594
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 4: they look at the defensive line. That's where they start.

595
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 4: They don't start on the edges, they don't start with

596
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 4: the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of

597
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 4: a few teams with top five offensive line top five

598
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 4: defensive line pines on one side. Then you mentioned Aiden Hutchinson.

599
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 4: I bet Ada Hutchinson fourteen to one to leave the

600
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,839
Speaker 4: league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how

601
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 4: this guy has gotten better and better. And last year

602
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 4: he was dominant no matter what this situation was, no

603
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 4: matter how often he was being double team he consistently

604
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 4: got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack.

605
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 4: So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait

606
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 4: a second. Aaron Donald retired offensive line for the Rams

607
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 4: in trouble. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread to start

608
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 4: the season in his career, Jared Goff twenty five to

609
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 4: nine against the spread in doors. Jared Goff the most

610
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 4: profitable quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan

611
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:49,760
Speaker 4: Campbell the most profitable coach against the spread the past

612
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 4: five years. I know, like it's hard to bet on

613
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,760
Speaker 4: a more than a field goal favorite in a game

614
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 4: that ended as a very short win for the line

615
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 4: last year in the playoffs, I think the lines have

616
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 4: gotten better. I think the Rams have stagnated or a

617
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:09,320
Speaker 4: little bit less, a little bit worse because their talent

618
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 4: isn't as good. So it hurts, but I'm on the lines.

619
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 1: So one of the things John that really jumped out

620
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,280
Speaker 1: to me, and I said this to start my rant,

621
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 1: is that unlike the NFL, these are young kids, practice limitations,

622
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 1: no preseason. I would be completely okay to watch a

623
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: sloppy first half. I thought USC six penalties, great situational

624
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 1: football in the red zone, very good two minute drives,

625
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 1: handled timeouts well, no turnovers again, very few penalties, two

626
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: freshmen on the offensive line, no real breakdowns. Alignments were great.

627
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 1: I thought USC more than anything. I thought they looked tight,

628
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: really buttoned up John the whole off. It's his freshman

629
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 1: and sophomores. I thought they looked great.

630
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 2: Colin, you get to take a victory lap for the

631
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 2: next seven days, loud and clear pound that table. To me,

632
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,800
Speaker 2: two things really stood out first and foremost the size

633
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: of the defenders. I would say over the last decade

634
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 2: they felt small. They've had a guy or two here

635
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 2: on defense, but for the most part, they've had too

636
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 2: many guys that look like me, you know, in the

637
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll Heyday and all these SEC teams. The visual

638
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 2: they showed of the transformation of the body types during

639
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 2: the game, I mean guys going from two thirty to

640
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 2: two sixty in an offseason was evident. Because the LSU

641
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 2: team has they got a top fifteen tackle, they got

642
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 2: another guy who's pretty raw, who's going to go in

643
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 2: the top thirty. The wide receiver, the number two looks

644
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:50,919
Speaker 2: like an NFL guy. I mean, they had NFL guys

645
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 2: everywhere USC tackled physically, they didn't get shoved around. And

646
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 2: I think what really changed is the last two years

647
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 2: with Caleb and rightfully so they wrote him like he

648
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: was Steph Curry or Lebron James. Yeah, it was kind

649
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 2: of like an individual, not a team, and it worked

650
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 2: two years ago. Last year at Backfire because the defense

651
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:11,439
Speaker 2: was totally terrible, didn't they feel like a team? Didn't

652
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 2: they just feel like a group of guys that there

653
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 2: wasn't one necessity. I mean everyone was making place that

654
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 2: they felt like a total unit. And listen, you were

655
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 2: hammering this. I didn't believe Miller. Moss clearly's pretty good.

656
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 2: He's definitely tough, and Lincoln had the boys ready and

657
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 2: they they could have folded there in the second half,

658
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 2: and it was LSU that folded in. This why Brian

659
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:34,879
Speaker 2: Kelly kind of snapped after the game.

660
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 1: So the Big Ten went seventeen and one. And this

661
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:43,760
Speaker 1: is something I thought about Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC,

662
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 1: especially Texas and the way they can recruit that state.

663
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 1: It makes it a better conference. But adding Washington, Oregon

664
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 1: and USC to the Big Ten is not a slight upgrade.

665
00:37:57,239 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 1: I could argue that after Ohio State, now that Harva

666
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 1: is gone, after Ohio State. If I said the next

667
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:07,280
Speaker 1: five years, the second, third, fourth, and fifth best teams

668
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 1: in the Big Ten were Oregon, USC, Michigan, Washington. Like,

669
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:19,320
Speaker 1: I don't think it's crazy to suggest that adding three

670
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 1: of the best four programs in the conference, if Utah

671
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: always counts, I think in that foursome, but with the

672
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:31,439
Speaker 1: right coach USC, Oregon, Washington, those are playoff teams every

673
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,839
Speaker 1: time Washington's had a good coach, Don James, Rick Neuheisel,

674
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 1: Chris Peterson, Kaitlin de boor they vy for a national championship.

675
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 1: So it's like, I don't think people understand it's Texas

676
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 1: Oklahoma make the SEC thicker. You added three on any

677
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 1: given year top twelve programs to the Big Ten, may

678
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,240
Speaker 1: it be a better overall conference?

679
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 2: Now, I think over the course of time, I think

680
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 2: this year there's gonna be a lot of reaction to

681
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,839
Speaker 2: to the SEC. Their quarterback play, Colin, I mean, I'm

682
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 2: gonna give Oregon a little bit of a pass. I

683
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 2: mean that game was really weird. They played boys. They

684
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 2: played boys. This week, they better kick their ass and

685
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 2: kind of get after it because that was that was bizarre.

686
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 2: The quarterback play. I didn't know that much about him.

687
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 2: I'm sure you heard his name, the Nico kid from

688
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 2: Los Angeles. That's Tennessee's quarterback. I got loose for you.

689
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 2: That guy's pretty special. Jackson dart Ole, Miss. They're pretty

690
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 2: good obviously, the two quarterbacks. The quarterback Dylan Gabriels at

691
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 2: Oregon because they told him, you're not going to start.

692
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 2: Jackson Arnold's gonna start. He's pretty good too. Their high

693
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,839
Speaker 2: end teams with their quarterbacks are pretty obviously Carson Beck

694
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 2: and Georgia. Over the course of time. I think, you know,

695
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 2: USC is only going to get better if they keep

696
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 2: looking like this over the next two or three years.

697
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 2: Oregon's not going anywhere. But I got a lot of

698
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:54,879
Speaker 2: question marks about Wisconsin, about Minnesota, like the four or five,

699
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 2: six seven group. Penn State you feel pretty good at

700
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: Penn State could be a major problem. I was texting

701
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 2: scouts all week and long. I mean, they're front sevens

702
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 2: full of NFL guys, and if that quarterback takes a

703
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 2: big step, that game got like delayed for twenty five hours.

704
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 2: But they could be a serious factor, I mean a

705
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 2: serious factor this year. So I think the high end

706
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:18,840
Speaker 2: of the Big ten in the sec. It's pretty clear

707
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 2: that though Miami, I would still kind of red flag

708
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 2: the quarterback and be up and down. But they're pretty talented.

709
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 1: So I think that Tom Brady situation's fascinating. I had

710
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 1: people asking me in the airport about this. I went

711
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 1: golfing and I had a couple of people ask me

712
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 1: about the story that he's going to be. You know,

713
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 1: he's trying to be a raider's owner, and if you're

714
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 1: a raider's owner, there are limitations on what you can

715
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 1: do in the NFL.

716
00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:40,359
Speaker 2: And had you heard about that? Had you heard about

717
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 2: that before like in the Halls.

718
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 1: House, No, and so, And it's one of those things

719
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 1: that that's above my pay grade. That's management. But so

720
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: for people that don't know, he can't criticize officials, he

721
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 1: can't be in certain meetings, production meetings. I don't think

722
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 1: the production meetings is a big deal. I think have

723
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,720
Speaker 1: you been watching this stuff? That Brady is allowing people

724
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 1: to see the binders he has from every single season,

725
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 1: everybody he ever faced. His preparation is even compared to

726
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:12,760
Speaker 1: people who spend a lot of time preparing, is literally

727
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 1: next level. And he just got off the field. I

728
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 1: don't worry about any of that. The only part of

729
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:21,720
Speaker 1: it that concerns me, and it only may happen once

730
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 1: every two weeks, eight times a year that you may

731
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 1: have to call the officials and go, that's a blown call.

732
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:35,399
Speaker 1: Now replay helps reverse a lot of miscalls. So again,

733
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 1: it's not the seventies eighties. But when I read all

734
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 1: the stuff, I thought, do you view it as credibility

735
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 1: dinged if he can't rip officials? And I'm not saying rip,

736
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 1: but be question officiating.

737
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 2: Listen. I like my announcers. I think once everyone started

738
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 2: getting on Romo, Troyikman kind of got a swag back

739
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 2: and he'll light into somebody and I like that. Now

740
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 2: some people may be like more rosier. But here's the

741
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 2: one thing, there's twenty thirty million people watching this game.

742
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 2: When stuff screwed up. Now, at football, you have a

743
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 2: pretty good idea, and people don't like to hear rose

744
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 2: colored glasses when stuff's pretty obvious. I thought, it's not

745
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 2: only officials. This isn't like certain things like with teams.

746
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 2: To me, the restrictions that I read feel like god

747
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 2: part of my big question mark with Tom because turn

748
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 2: him on your show. He's he's awesome. I mean his

749
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:29,879
Speaker 2: ability to speak complicated stuff, but I was like, let

750
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 2: his true personality come out. That he's known as a

751
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 2: great teammate. Part of that is being one of the

752
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 2: guys obviously ribbing some people. I think that's pretty difficult.

753
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 2: It will not be difficult for him to get the

754
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 2: coaches and the players on the phone, right, that's call

755
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 2: him back.

756
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 1: That doesn't feel like a deal, That doesn't matter at all.

757
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 2: That's Peyton talks about that sometimes. On Monday night. I

758
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 2: talked to Sean McVeigh on his drive home. They can

759
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:52,919
Speaker 2: go to him and Peyton get anybody on the phone

760
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:56,439
Speaker 2: in the NFL in five minutes. I do think him

761
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: not being able to do that. If that's really serious,

762
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 2: can you argue and listen. I'm as pro capitalism as anybody,

763
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,479
Speaker 2: but this feels like it's going to be pretty tough

764
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 2: if you one day. Actually, he's just never allowed to

765
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:09,919
Speaker 2: do that. It is pretty difficult to do your job

766
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 2: if there are legit restrictions. Because it's easy this year,

767
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 2: but what about five years from now when you have

768
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:17,400
Speaker 2: some coaches you know nothing about. Those production meetings do

769
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 2: hold some value, right, Y's one thing I'm not saying

770
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 2: to like divest from the Raiders, because that's pretty good

771
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:26,280
Speaker 2: investment invested in the NFL, but it feels pretty difficult.

772
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 2: Fox has given them almost four hundred million dollars.

773
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, I rent all the restrictions and listen.

774
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:37,800
Speaker 1: I'm I'm a corporate opinionist, so essentially, I have strong

775
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 1: opinions for companies ESPN and Fox that have rights with everybody.

776
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 1: And my take has always been I can say pretty

777
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: much everything and anything, but I don't make it personal.

778
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 1: I'm not going to go after Roger Goodell personally or

779
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 1: Adam Silver, even now that we don't have the NBA.

780
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 1: I try to be fair with people, even when I'm

781
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:04,720
Speaker 1: critical of people, like for a year, even with Baker Mayfield.

782
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 1: I've said he is a top twenty quarterback. I think

783
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 1: he's a great guy. He and Emily are wonderful people.

784
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:12,320
Speaker 1: I root for the guy. I thought he was immature

785
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: when he came into the league. So I try to

786
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:15,400
Speaker 1: qualify stuff I don't want to. I don't want to

787
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: be a sledgehammer. I don't want to be an anvil

788
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 1: because I'm in these relationships too. I see these commissioners,

789
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:22,800
Speaker 1: I see these coaches. I don't want to be a jerk.

790
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 1: I want to be somewhat respected as a generalist or

791
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 1: an opinionist. But the one that did jump out to

792
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 1: me was the officiating because, and again Tom's such a

793
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 1: prep monster. I don't worry about the other stuff, but

794
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:40,399
Speaker 1: that one I think. I think what it would be.

795
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 1: It wouldn't affect him, but it would mean a lot

796
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:46,359
Speaker 1: of bad press for him and Fox, and I think

797
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 1: corporations don't like that the volume. Thanks so much for listening.

798
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 1: If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and

799
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 1: review