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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go.

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Speaker 4: Throwing in Joe spec catch, so I'm saying it's a

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Speaker 4: catch touch down.

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Speaker 5: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 5: go to wind.

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Speaker 6: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 6: All right, this is the ultimate kabak you want to pack.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 6: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 4: We are presented by FanDuel your NFL Week eleven Best

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Speaker 4: Bets episode. I am your host, Brendan glass Sheen, joined

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Speaker 4: by Brandon Anderson, Jill Gallant, Luke Swayn otherwise known as

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Speaker 4: Vegas Refund, the Normal Crew. Each of those guys are

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Speaker 4: going to go through their three favorite bets for the

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Speaker 4: upcoming Sunday Monday slate as you're amind. As a reminder,

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Speaker 4: you can find all of our picks from the show

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Speaker 4: over in the Action Network app. You can follow Action

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Speaker 4: Network NFL Picks. They'll also find Stucky in Raybond's Sunday

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Speaker 4: six pack picks, as well as the Best Bets fellas

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Speaker 4: great week, last week six and three so great but good,

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Speaker 4: definitely good.

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Speaker 6: We're doing well. The last couple of.

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Speaker 4: Weeks fifty two, thirty six and two record for the season.

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Speaker 4: As a reminder, you can find Jill Gallant on Sundays

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Speaker 4: during the season at ten thirty am Eastern on the

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Speaker 4: Action App, also on YouTube and Twitter going through the

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Speaker 4: Touchdown Show, and good to have Luke and Brandon here

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Speaker 4: as well, fellas.

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Speaker 6: Before we get.

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Speaker 4: Into week eleven, just to set things up, four teams

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Speaker 4: on the by Dolphins, Seahawks, Buccaneers and Jags.

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Speaker 6: Hey, Seahawks and Bucks. They played in London. We want

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Speaker 6: to buy week. That's a good idea based on.

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Speaker 4: How other teams have looked this year after a game

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Speaker 4: overseas like Germany or London, and how they've looked the

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Speaker 4: following week. Underdogs keep rolling fifty seven percent hit rate.

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Speaker 4: We have three more teams that are playing as a

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Speaker 4: seven point favorite or more Ravens, Bills, and Niners. Those

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Speaker 4: teams this year just eleven and twenty two against the spread.

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Speaker 4: That's the least profitable start for touchdown favorites in two decades.

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Speaker 4: And the undertrain continues to ride peacefully. Fifty eight percent

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Speaker 4: hit rate. If you were a one hundred dollars better

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Speaker 4: you bet one hundred bucks in each under you'd be

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Speaker 4: up close to nineteen hundred dollars, the best start for

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Speaker 4: unders since nineteen ninety one through the first ten games

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Speaker 4: of the season. Let's describe the week eleven betting card

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Speaker 4: in one sentence, and then we'll get into the picks.

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Speaker 6: Brandon, you first, Yeah.

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Speaker 7: Back to what we've been saying, you're the underdog. I've

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Speaker 7: given this stat out underdogs of between three and ten

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Speaker 7: points now forty eight and twenty six against the spread,

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Speaker 7: sixty five percent cover eight, twenty four percent ROI and

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Speaker 7: the money line, depending on the lines you're looking at

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Speaker 7: right now. I see eleven of fourteen games falling into

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Speaker 7: that range this week.

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Speaker 6: Wow, Jill, what do you have for us?

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Speaker 5: Maybe not a sentence, but definitely two words, and I

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Speaker 5: would call it amateur meteorologist, like I feel like I've

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Speaker 5: I've had such conflicting reports on what I've read about

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Speaker 5: what the snow is going to be for Buffalo versus Cleveland,

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Speaker 5: if it's Snovember, or if it's going to be cleared

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Speaker 5: out by Sunday they'll be able to play? Are they

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Speaker 5: actually moving from Buffalo to play? So again, you may

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Speaker 5: have to wait right up until Sunday morning before you

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Speaker 5: actually know where and when that game is going to

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Speaker 5: be played.

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Speaker 4: There's actually and they're calling it thunder snow. That's what

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Speaker 4: I've been reading in some of these reports. There's actually consideration,

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Speaker 4: real quick, there's consideration of moving the game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's to Detroit, which would be hilarious because.

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Speaker 6: Boom if they moved to Detroit.

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Speaker 1: The Lions are in New York right now, having to

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Speaker 1: travel home for Thursday, where the Bills would already be there.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, leave it to the Lions to get a road

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Speaker 7: Thanksgiving disadvantage.

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Speaker 6: Wow, I totally forgot.

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Speaker 4: They played each other next week to kick off the

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Speaker 4: Thanksgiving slate. Great point, Luke. What's your thought for week eleven.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just the underdog trend and to see if

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Speaker 1: regression is going to kick in. We had the elite,

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Speaker 1: a bunch of elite teams lose last week. I'm really

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Speaker 1: interested to see if they are going to bounce back

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Speaker 1: or wet down.

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Speaker 4: Okay, and road dogs have been good this year. Fifty

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Speaker 4: two thirty eight one, specifically against the spread. First best

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Speaker 4: bet will come from Brandon Anderson, per usual. As a reminder,

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Speaker 4: these guys do not consult each other before we start

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Speaker 4: this record, so we may have overlap, we may have contradictions.

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Speaker 4: We ran into overlap last week. We'll see what happens today.

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Speaker 4: Every man for himself here on these best bets. Brandon

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Speaker 4: wanted to start us.

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Speaker 7: Off all right, Well, spoiler alert, I'm gonna going with

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Speaker 7: all three underdogs in that range I talked about today,

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Speaker 7: and I'm gonna get my toughest one out of the

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Speaker 7: way first. I need a little courage to get this

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Speaker 7: one right away. I'm gonna go to Monday night, We're

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Speaker 7: flying to Mexico City. I'm gonna take the underdog Arizona

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Speaker 7: Cardinals plus eight and a half against the forty nine

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Speaker 7: ers Cardinals. Obviously right in that three to ten point range.

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Speaker 7: Sixty five percent cover rate in those games, division seventy

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Speaker 7: three percent cover rate, teams that are getting under half

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Speaker 7: of the tickets, seventy three percent cover rate, So this

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Speaker 7: fits right in that range of underdogs we're looking at.

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Speaker 7: I think the Cardinals offense, believe it or not, might

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Speaker 7: be a little undervalued here. The offense has ticked up

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Speaker 7: a little bit since DeAndre Hopkins came back. Marcus Brown

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Speaker 7: is practicing now as well, so we possibly could get

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Speaker 7: both of those guys there. And on the other side,

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Speaker 7: I think we're still giving the forty nine Ers defense

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Speaker 7: maybe a little too much credit from what they were

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Speaker 7: early in the year. Last five games, they're down to

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Speaker 7: twenty sixth in DVOA.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 7: They looked good last week, but injuries I think are

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Speaker 7: pulling that defense a little back toward back to earth

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Speaker 7: a little bit. Cardinals actually rank higher defensively there, So

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Speaker 7: Niners are five and four. I think, you know, Luke,

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Speaker 7: you talked about the elite teams losing. The Niners made

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Speaker 7: it through last week, but I think we're kind of

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Speaker 7: counting them as an elite team. But they might be

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Speaker 7: a theoretical elite team. We haven't really seen them do

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Speaker 7: that yet. They got blown out by the Falcons to Denver.

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Speaker 7: They lost to Chicago, not the good version of Chicago

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Speaker 7: that might exist. Now the one way back at the beginning,

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Speaker 7: there's another uh whatever whatever that was in week one

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Speaker 7: weather wise, So I like Arizona here, and then you know,

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Speaker 7: whenever we do an Arizona game, we gotta do my

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Speaker 7: Cliff Kingsbury trends. So do you guys know which one

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Speaker 7: I'm going with this time? Cliff Kingsbury when he is

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Speaker 7: an underdog against a coach that has not won the

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Speaker 7: Super Bowl. We're back baby, thirteen one and one against

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Speaker 7: the spread in that spot now used to be undefeated.

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Speaker 7: Didn't cover against my Minnesota Vikings this year, but ten

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Speaker 7: point one points per game cover thirteen one on one.

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Speaker 7: And Kingsbury is an underdog away from home, which this

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Speaker 7: one counts as I'm counting the neutral here. Sixteen four

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Speaker 7: and two against the spread eighty percent has won nine

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Speaker 7: of the last ten outright, and by the way, just

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Speaker 7: straight up against Shanahan has gone well. Kingsbury's three to

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Speaker 7: zero to one against Shanahan. Shanahan is a favorite, never great.

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Speaker 7: Jimmy Garoppolo has more than a touchdown favorite one six

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Speaker 7: and one against the spread a lifetime. So I like

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Speaker 7: the spot here, and I like the number eight and

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Speaker 7: a half is clearly a two score thing, even with

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Speaker 7: the two point conversions. Now and then I'll get out

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Speaker 7: ahead of the one last question here.

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Speaker 3: But what about the quarterback? Kyler Murray Colt McCoy. Who's

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Speaker 3: it going to be?

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Speaker 7: So I tested this out a little bit in my head.

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Speaker 7: I was thinking, you know, I feel like Shanahan kind

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Speaker 7: of blows some of these games against backup quarterback. So

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Speaker 7: I went back through the history. No science on this.

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Speaker 7: I think I got the number right here. As far

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Speaker 7: as I can tell, Shanahan against a backup quarterback three

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Speaker 7: and six against the spread lifetime last two seasons has

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Speaker 7: lost outright all three such opportunities, including Foult McCoy last

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Speaker 7: year as the Cardinals backup. Colt is three and one

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Speaker 7: ats as the backup. I think the line inflation here

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Speaker 7: is giving us some value because of the unknown quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: I'll take it. Now, take the risk.

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Speaker 7: Cardinals plus eight and a half might even sprinkle the

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Speaker 7: money line. You never know what these international games. Let's

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Speaker 7: let's get.

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Speaker 6: Wild, Okay, Luke, you have thoughts on.

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Speaker 1: That, Yeah, And for me, like and I almost like

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Speaker 1: prefer McCoy to be honest, but and it does feel

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Speaker 1: like like a fifty to fifty like coin flip between

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Speaker 1: the two where you can't talk about like two different

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Speaker 1: more different types of quarterbacks in terms of Shannon and

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Speaker 1: having to prepare for both of them, where like if

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Speaker 1: they're already fact like let's just say they're assuming McCoy's in,

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Speaker 1: where like they're baking it into the line right now,

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Speaker 1: where if Kyler's out, I'm gonna assume it's gonna move

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Speaker 1: even more, which is just even more value that like

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Speaker 1: you might get like fake value that they're just baiting

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Speaker 1: people into taking, which like I prefer McCoy, they're totally different.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love this one.

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Speaker 7: McCoy's getting the ball out fast and kind of to

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Speaker 7: me it's a bit of a Geno Smith thing where

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Speaker 7: they're actually running the offense there rather than doing the

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Speaker 7: Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray save us offense. So I agree

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Speaker 7: with that, but I'll draw the line there. I'll stop

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Speaker 7: at the real mcclay's no trace mcsoriley. If we go

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Speaker 7: to third string quarterback, I'm out. I'm getting my money

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Speaker 7: in running.

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Speaker 1: The injury report said that he hasn't yet made a decision,

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Speaker 1: which is like very interesting that he has to make a.

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Speaker 2: Decision as if there's like a controversy.

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Speaker 4: It wouldn't be hard knocks related, right because they pre

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Speaker 4: record those every week.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, Yeah, that's the week before, always right

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Speaker 2: week before.

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Speaker 6: Okay, Well, Kyler is quoted from yesterday.

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Speaker 4: I feel good, and he feels his hamstring feels a

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Speaker 4: lot better, but still unsure about his status for the weekend. Okay,

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Speaker 4: moving right along, Jill, You're going to another trendy situation.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I've bet on the Patriots now three

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Speaker 5: of the last four pods. I think they were on

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Speaker 5: buy one of the weeks, so I didn't bet on them.

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Speaker 5: But if it's gonna be a weekly occurred the week, yeah,

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Speaker 5: if they're going to keep giving me the Patriots as

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Speaker 5: a short fave, I'm gonna take it. Like the Patriots

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Speaker 5: were on the road face the Jets as three point favorites.

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Speaker 5: Now we're returning home back to Foxborough and they're only

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Speaker 5: three and a half point favorites. It makes no sense

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Speaker 5: to me. And there are so many trends that point

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Speaker 5: to a Patriots win in this matchup, like, for example,

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Speaker 5: thirteen straight wins against this team, nine of those by

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Speaker 5: double digits. They were leading by twelve against his team

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Speaker 5: just a few weeks ago and they gave up a

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Speaker 5: garbage touchdown so they only won by five, oh but

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Speaker 5: still covered. And Patriots are top five in sacks and interceptions,

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Speaker 5: interceptions being the key thing here because when Zach Wilson

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Speaker 5: was playing against him, we joked about it that he

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Speaker 5: was basically playing a weird version of pop up five

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Speaker 5: hundred to the Patriots secondary. So I think that's going

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Speaker 5: to bode well for the Patriots. You know, their specialty

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Speaker 5: obviously is running the ball. The Jets are bottom three

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Speaker 5: and touchdowns allowed by running backs. Also another trend from

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Speaker 5: Evan Abrams, who writes the weekly betting prime for Action Network.

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Speaker 5: When the total is at forty or lower, Belichick is

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Speaker 5: thirty two ten and one against the spread over the

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Speaker 5: last twenty years. It's the seventy seven percent rate. And

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Speaker 5: I feel like, just because the Jets upset the Bills,

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Speaker 5: I don't think it's worth it that they should be

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Speaker 5: giving up like less than six. I feel like the

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Speaker 5: spread should be Patriots, you know, minus six, you know

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Speaker 5: around that range. And you know three of the five

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Speaker 5: wins that Zach Wilson has gotten this year against backup quarterbacks,

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Speaker 5: and now you're going against Mac Jones and on this

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Speaker 5: road to me, guys, again, if Mac Jones doesn't turn

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Speaker 5: the ball over, I have no idea how the Jets

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Speaker 5: will cover this game.

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Speaker 4: So you're saying if Bailey Zappy was playing, you'd feel

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Speaker 4: better about the Jets.

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Speaker 5: I think I would probably have if Bailey Zappy was

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Speaker 5: playing the spread minus nine and a half Patriots, if

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Speaker 5: we're putting it real here.

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Speaker 1: So this one, this one does feel like it's coming

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Speaker 1: down so like which for me, it's like three or nothing,

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Speaker 1: And I totally get it's three and a half as

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Speaker 1: we're recording right now. But Zach Wilson's thrown seven interceptions

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Speaker 1: against Bill Belichick in three games that he played.

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Speaker 2: Where the last game the Jets probably should have won

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Speaker 2: by ten plus.

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Speaker 1: But Zack Wilson just turned it over where last year

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Speaker 1: he is first game against the Patriots in New York,

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Speaker 1: he had three interceptions. Then he went to New York

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Speaker 1: or excuse me, then he went to New England and

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Speaker 1: through zero which trends but like it's three or nothing

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Speaker 1: for me, and which like you would just have to

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Speaker 1: go with the Patriots at this point. So if you're

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Speaker 1: betting this pick, I would probably wait a little. It's

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Speaker 1: probably gonna come down to three.

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Speaker 4: Thirteen straight wins for New England against the Jets. Remember

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Speaker 4: Zach Wilson said back in Week eight, we'll see those

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Speaker 4: guys again with his bandana on, so he's motivated. It's

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Speaker 4: how we sounded a few weeks ago. Let's go to

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Speaker 4: Luke for his first best bet.

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Speaker 1: So my first one is going to be shut your

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Speaker 1: eyes and take the Colts plus seven, where right now

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Speaker 1: at Fandel it's six and a half, so I would

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Speaker 1: wait because there are sevens available, but it would be

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Speaker 1: seven or past probably for me. But this feels like

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Speaker 1: a similar game to the Colts Chiefs game, I think

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Speaker 1: Week two or week three, where I know the Colts

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Speaker 1: haven't been any better with Matt Ryan, but I refuse

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Speaker 1: to believe that they're worse with him, and Jonathan Taylor

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Speaker 1: got it going against the Raiders, which I know is

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Speaker 1: the Raiders this past Sunday, and you have an Eagles

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Speaker 1: team that is down Dallas good, Eric AJ Brown's questionable,

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Speaker 1: and they've been basically a SIV versus the run. So

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Speaker 1: if Jonathan Taylor can get it going, which is a

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Speaker 1: question mark like this, seven is just too high and

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Speaker 1: weird things happen in Indianapolis. So I'm just gonna take.

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Speaker 1: And really it is just it is a value principal play.

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Speaker 1: I know the Eagles just came off of their first loss,

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Speaker 1: and everyone wants to say it's a bounce back game,

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Speaker 1: but to me, like this is like who knows who

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Speaker 1: Jeff Saturday is. But the Colts might be better than

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Speaker 1: they actually are, and they've been really bad. So I'm

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Speaker 1: just gonna take the Colts plus seven.

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Speaker 6: Okay, very good? And we do you care who the

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Speaker 6: quarterback is? It's Matt Ryan.

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Speaker 2: That fine, I would like it.

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Speaker 1: It's I would like Matt Ryan, okay, which is yeah,

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Speaker 1: not Allinger. Let's just say not Allinger.

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Speaker 7: All right?

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Speaker 6: Well Jure, yeah, yeah right.

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Speaker 4: I think that was a line from the recap show

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Speaker 4: the other night, Jill. Good stuff there, all right, Brandon,

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Speaker 4: back to you, and you're riding an offense that is

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Speaker 4: flying high these days.

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Speaker 3: I am.

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Speaker 7: I'm going to stay local for me, and I'll go

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Speaker 7: with the Chicago Bears a little different here. I'm not

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Speaker 7: going to take the Bears just to cover. If it

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Speaker 7: was three and a half, they might get back to that.

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Speaker 7: Then I might be looking there. I don't trust the

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Speaker 7: Bears defense. Atlanta's offense has been pretty good. So I

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Speaker 7: kept Kennedy bating do I want to play? Do I

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Speaker 7: want it or not? And then I realized, well, what

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Speaker 7: I want to play here? I want to play the

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Speaker 7: Chicago Bears offense. So I'm just going to do that.

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Speaker 7: Bears over a team total twenty two and a half.

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Speaker 7: This is a justin fields play. Justin fields has been awesome.

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Speaker 7: Five hundred and fifty five rushing yards the last five games,

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Speaker 7: a quarterback record in NFL history, thirteen touchdowns during last stretch.

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Speaker 7: Everything has changed for this offense, like Field figured it out.

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Speaker 7: The decision making is faster, the processing is faster. It's

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Speaker 7: unlocked the scrambling, that size speed combo. He makes a

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Speaker 7: decision in Bam, He's gone. He's just gone down there.

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Speaker 7: He's got multiple long touchdown runs already. More to come

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Speaker 7: maybe against these Falcons. Chicago has scored twenty nine points

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Speaker 7: or more in four straight. During those four games, they're

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Speaker 7: up to fifth in offensive DBA. The Bears are fifth

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Speaker 7: in offense. Like I'm going to go back and check

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Speaker 7: on it. I don't know when in my lifetime ever

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Speaker 7: the Bears have been a top five offense. Literally ever,

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Speaker 7: I don't know when it happened, Like it's been maybe

325
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Speaker 7: since the eighties. They're top five and rushing, top half

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Speaker 7: of the league in passing. Compared to the first six games,

327
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Speaker 7: the Bears were thirtieth on offensive DVA. That's where I

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Speaker 7: usually expect this team to be justin field has changed everything.

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Speaker 7: Atlanta's defense not good. They're near the bottom the league

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Speaker 7: at most everything. They're not healthy. I think the Bears

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Speaker 7: run plenty, and the one thing the Bears really still

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Speaker 7: don't do well pass protect Falcons ranked dead last and

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Speaker 7: getting pressure on the quarterback. So even that may not

334
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Speaker 7: be your problem. I don't mind playing the Bears here,

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Speaker 7: especially against the three and a half. To me, this

336
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Speaker 7: team total is just way off. This is an easy

337
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Speaker 7: one for me. I think that the total should be

338
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Speaker 7: like up to twenty seven twenty eight. I might even

339
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Speaker 7: look for an alternate here, but I certainly will love

340
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Speaker 7: a Bears over a team total twenty two and a half.

341
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Speaker 4: You know what I found interesting when I saw this

342
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Speaker 4: number was just in recording before Thursday night football Week

343
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Speaker 4: eleven Packers Titans. The Packers have the same exact team

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Speaker 4: total against a Titans team that yes has banged up

345
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Speaker 4: resting players short week.

346
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Speaker 6: I get all that, but I mean, and I know

347
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Speaker 6: that the Bears.

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Speaker 4: Are playing the Bears are playing the Falcons. At least,

349
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Speaker 4: the Titans are a reputable product in the defensive side

350
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Speaker 4: of the ball, so the fact that we're still not

351
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Speaker 4: and that's a respect for Aaron Rodgers. I get that

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Speaker 4: that's like a brand thing, but the fact that those

353
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Speaker 4: are the same, they have the same team totals going

354
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Speaker 4: into this week based on how the Bears have trended,

355
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Speaker 4: I agree, doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

356
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Speaker 6: Jill, what's your second best bet?

357
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Speaker 5: All right, So I'm gonna go to the Cowboys and

358
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Speaker 5: Vikings game, and I'm gonna bank on some offense for

359
00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:09,479
Speaker 5: that game. I'm gonna go at over forty seven and

360
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Speaker 5: a half. And the reason being is Okay, so we've

361
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Speaker 5: got two what I define as explosive offenses.

362
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Speaker 3: Brandon, I don't know how you feel about the Vikings.

363
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,840
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say that they're an explosive offense, but I.

364
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Speaker 5: Expect them to at least put up twenty four points

365
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:27,600
Speaker 5: each because the Vikings offense man in home games, you know,

366
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Speaker 5: the London game aside, but been pretty sharp this year,

367
00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,920
Speaker 5: no less than twenty three points scored. They've went over

368
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,240
Speaker 5: this total in every game. And part of why I

369
00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,440
Speaker 5: love this bet is because again the defense, the Vikings

370
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,680
Speaker 5: defense still kind of struggling bottom five and passing yards

371
00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 5: allowed per game, Middle of the pack stop in the

372
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Speaker 5: run and the Cowboys, like it's not quite the Spider

373
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Speaker 5: Man meme, but they're kind of the same team in

374
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Speaker 5: a way, like they kind of run up points quickly,

375
00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,960
Speaker 5: but their quarterback will kind of keep opponents in games

376
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Speaker 5: because they tend to turn it over and the defense

377
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 5: has struggled against kind of balanced offenses. Now, the Cowboys,

378
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,080
Speaker 5: as much as we want to talk about how awesome

379
00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,280
Speaker 5: their defense was, I'll talk about it all day, actually

380
00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:06,280
Speaker 5: if you guys want to talk about it, but they

381
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,919
Speaker 5: give it up sixty points over the last two weeks,

382
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 5: and to just put that in perspective, they only allowed

383
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Speaker 5: one hundred and six in the first seven games of

384
00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,960
Speaker 5: the year. So there's clearly something happening here where offensive

385
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:18,960
Speaker 5: coordinators are maybe finding the holes.

386
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Speaker 3: In this defense.

387
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Speaker 5: So I thought that this total when I saw this matchup,

388
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:24,479
Speaker 5: I thought the total was going to open over fifty

389
00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:26,560
Speaker 5: or maybe fifty one and a half. But when you're

390
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,160
Speaker 5: give it to me at forty seven and a half

391
00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 5: with these types of offenses and these type of I

392
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 5: want to say, inept defenses, maybe I'm going to.

393
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:35,919
Speaker 3: Take the over in that spot.

394
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Speaker 6: All right, very good? I like it.

395
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you got to keep in mind when you

396
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Speaker 4: look at Dallas's stats for the season, that there's some

397
00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 4: Cooper rush in there, not just Dak Prescott led. So, Luke,

398
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 4: you're gonna have a sah, not the same play, but

399
00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 4: a play on this game as well.

400
00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:53,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, so my first one's gonna be a Cowboys money line,

401
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:57,879
Speaker 1: which right now it is minus one twenty four, which

402
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 1: minus one and a half is fine too, but the

403
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 1: Christian Deresaw injury is definitely an extremely important injury to

404
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 1: monitor where if he is ruled out he's in concussion protocol.

405
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,880
Speaker 1: This will probably jump to two and a half, where

406
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 1: he's I think the number one graded tackle in the

407
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,160
Speaker 1: league right now, especially for the run, which this Cowboys

408
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:23,120
Speaker 1: defense has been showing lapses the last two weeks, but

409
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 1: that was verse two teams that just gashed them. This

410
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,280
Speaker 1: D line is built around speed. It doesn't have any

411
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 1: fat guys in the middle, where like the Vikings are

412
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 1: capable of, like Dalvin Cooks capable of a breaking eighty

413
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 1: r run like he did last week at any time,

414
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:42,360
Speaker 1: But I'm not gonna bet on adr plays happening every

415
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:47,240
Speaker 1: single week where this Vikings team continues to win coin

416
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,200
Speaker 1: flip games last year. They're in the same situation where

417
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 1: everyone wants to argue it is regression to the mean

418
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 1: where they lost them all last year. Now they're winning

419
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:58,200
Speaker 1: them all, but it is still like it doesn't matter

420
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 1: to me in terms of success rate, like schedule adjusted

421
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:06,959
Speaker 1: success rate, Dallas is eleventh and Minnesota is twenty fourth,

422
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 1: and that eleventh, like you said, Brendan, like has Cooper

423
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,359
Speaker 1: Rush factored in. And to me, I believe in this

424
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,600
Speaker 1: Dallas d this is going to be the best defense

425
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 1: the Vikings probably a face this year. And if Christian

426
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 1: Darrisa is out, like, I like this even more. Taking

427
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 1: a Cowboys team off a loss where like they lost

428
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,160
Speaker 1: the Packers in heartbreaking fashion, but they were up fourteen

429
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 1: going to the second half, gave up a few big

430
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,160
Speaker 1: plays that I don't see happening, where like I don't

431
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 1: think the Vikings can game plan or take advantage of

432
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 1: what the Packers did in terms of the run game.

433
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,959
Speaker 4: Action app is identifying Dallas getting eighty eight percent of

434
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:49,360
Speaker 4: the money on the money line side of things, as

435
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,160
Speaker 4: far as the spread seventy seven percent of the money

436
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,439
Speaker 4: on the Cowboys minus one and a half. Vikings have

437
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,359
Speaker 4: won seven straight games, and they're coming off a thrilling

438
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 4: win as we know against the Buffalo Bills. All right,

439
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 4: final best bet from each of the guys, and.

440
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 1: You will start I want to this and this is

441
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 1: just going back to that Viking the Vikings where, like

442
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,680
Speaker 1: I refute I was guilty of it a couple of

443
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 1: years ago, but do you remember that miracle, the miracle

444
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 1: play by Diggs in the playoffs? Yeah, yeah, Like it

445
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,199
Speaker 1: was absolutely like the greatest moment of Vikings history. And

446
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 1: I was a victim of betting the Vikings the very

447
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 1: next week. And I'm not saying this is the same

448
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 1: team because it's not. It's the same coaching, et cetera.

449
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 1: But there is like an emotional factor of like coming

450
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 1: off of a big win like that where they got

451
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 1: blown out by the Neatles the very next game and

452
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 1: I was miserable the entire playoff game because I was

453
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 1: on the Vikings, where like that was probably the Viking's

454
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 1: biggest regular season win like ever, like at least the

455
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 1: last decade or so, where if there is an emotional factor,

456
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 1: definitely plays the advantage of the Cowboys coming off of

457
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,439
Speaker 1: a heartbreaking loss, where the Vikings are coming off of

458
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,160
Speaker 1: a amazing one.

459
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins in his career twenty seven thirty six and

460
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 4: two against the spread after a straight up win sixteen

461
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 4: twenty eight and two against the spread after a straight

462
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 4: up win since twenty seventeen. Least profitable quarterback in the NFL.

463
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 4: Courtesy of Evan Abrams, who Jill referenced earlier. Brandon kept

464
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 4: his eyes clogged or part of that's ears ears clogged,

465
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 4: eyes closed.

466
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,959
Speaker 6: There we go. Okay, final best bet, Brandon, Let's go.

467
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks guys for that.

468
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 7: I just really need to relive that Vikings Eagles loss

469
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 7: all over again. But yeah, I can't disagree. It is

470
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 7: a It is a rough, emotional letdown spot. And no

471
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 7: forget the week before winning in Washington Kirk Cousins old team.

472
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 7: So that's two in a row. I think it is

473
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 7: a big emotional letdown spot. All right, final pick here,

474
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 7: No surprises. I tease this one Sunday night. I tease

475
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 7: this one last Friday. We're going with raw rab Mike

476
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 7: Tomlin Pittsburgh Steelers plus four at home against the Bengals.

477
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 7: You already know TJ. Watt changes everything for this team.

478
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 7: We saw it last week. TG wat comes back. The

479
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 7: defense that had been thirtieth in DVA all year holds

480
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 7: the Saints to one hundred and eighty six yards. And

481
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 7: I know it's just the Saints, but one hundred and

482
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 7: eighty six yards is nothing. Where they are number one

483
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 7: in sacks with Tja in the field, the last five

484
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 7: years their top five or ten defense. When what is

485
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 7: on the field, they've been bottom three without him. He

486
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 7: is that important, like he is a most valuable player

487
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 7: in the league, non quarterback division type important and we

488
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 7: saw that last week. The secondary is getting healthy. Demonte

489
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 7: Kayz is back, Levi Wallace is back, No mean if

490
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 7: it's Patrick, but probably know Jamar Chase. He's on crutches

491
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 7: still this week. It doesn't look like he will play.

492
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 7: I think Chase is probably a bigger loss to Cincinnati.

493
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 7: Bengals are only twentieth in passing offense without Chase this year.

494
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 7: So I like the Steelers D. I love the Steelers D.

495
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 7: I think they're the best unit on the field. And

496
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 7: you already know the Mike Tomlin stats Week five forward

497
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 7: as an underdog thirty nine sixteen and one ats seventy

498
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 7: one percent. Yeah, that's the same rate as last week.

499
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 7: When we said it, I think all three of us

500
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 7: were on the Steelers. Then they ended up not even

501
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 7: being an underdog, but we won comfortably. That was a

502
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 7: nice easy one for us as a one score underdog

503
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 7: in that range. Week five forward seventy seven percent cover

504
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 7: rate home underdog fourteen to two and one eighty eight

505
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,360
Speaker 7: percent covered nine in a row, one seven a row,

506
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 7: and Week five forward as a division underdog nineteen three

507
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 7: and one eighty six percent cover rate, they won fifteen

508
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 7: out of twenty three straight up. Mike Tomlin against the Bengals.

509
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 7: It is his most profitable ATS opponent. Mike Tomlins an

510
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,479
Speaker 7: underdog against the Bengals seven and two straight up against

511
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 7: the Bengals. Give me Mike Tomlin at home.

512
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 3: Give me TJ.

513
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 7: Watt at home as a four point dog. Hopefully, if

514
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 7: you were listening earlier, hopefully you already got the plus

515
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 7: six and we're just coasting.

516
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 3: At this point.

517
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 7: But I will happily take the plus four Steelers all day.

518
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 6: Remind us again, what did you get their live win total.

519
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,959
Speaker 7: At We're at five and a half last week, so

520
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 7: we already got our third win. Let's get a fourth

521
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 7: win here. Tell you what they give you a little

522
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 7: tease next Monday night, Steelers, Colts, give me Steelers again.

523
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 7: Let's just last this wind total out of the latter.

524
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 4: Okay, Jeff Saturday back on his old network television station.

525
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 6: So just keep that in mind, all right, Joe, what

526
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 6: you got final pick?

527
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna we're in an echo chamber today.

528
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 5: I'm taking the Steelers plus four two, and I think

529
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 5: it's gonna probably be the most bet underdog of the

530
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 5: week again, and I can't really argue it because of TJ.

531
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 3: Watt.

532
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 5: I wanted to add to that point that Brandon was

533
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 5: talking about with TJ.

534
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 3: Watt.

535
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 5: So for reference, the Steelers have sixteen sacks this season.

536
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 5: Six of those sacks were in Week one against the Bengals.

537
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 5: Seven sacks or part of me seven sacks were in

538
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 5: Week one versus the Bengals. They had six sacks this

539
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 5: past week against the Saints. So that means thirteen of

540
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,959
Speaker 5: the sixteen sacks this season have only been in two

541
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 5: games where TJ. Watt played. Rest of the year, they

542
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 5: couldn't get pressure on the quarterback. So I think it's

543
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 5: a pretty glaring stat to to kind of consider here

544
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 5: when we're looking at how these teams match up, and the.

545
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 6: Steelers have been pretty sharp versus the run this season.

546
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 5: I mean we saw it even Week one of how

547
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:15,199
Speaker 5: they've matched up against Joe Mixon, but obviously not been

548
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 5: very good against the past. But because of the lack

549
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 5: of Jamar Chase, I think that's actually going to be

550
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,439
Speaker 5: an issue for Joe Burrow to get that ball down

551
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 5: the field. And he was instrumental in that Week one

552
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 5: game against the Steelers, so they didn't end up winning,

553
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 5: but he was involved every way, shape or form. So

554
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 5: not having him out there is just going to be

555
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 5: a huge loss for that Bengals offense and also Burrow,

556
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 5: if we're just sticking with the sacks, still one of

557
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 5: the most sacked quarterbacks in the NFL. He's third overall

558
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 5: with thirty two sacks or thirty two sacks this season,

559
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 5: I can't it's just going to probably be a field

560
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 5: day for that defensive line on the Steelers. So if

561
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 5: you're gonna give me plus four, I'm gonna take that

562
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 5: every time.

563
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,919
Speaker 4: And despite how good Burrow has been against the spread

564
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 4: thirteen and three his last sixteen starts, fourteen and seven

565
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 4: in his career away from home, our final two picks

566
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 4: from Brandon and Jill. They are going with Pittsburgh.

567
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 1: What do you have for us, Luke, I'm not gonna

568
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: have a lot to say about this one because I'm

569
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: gonna be on the Steelers plus four as Well's makes

570
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 1: me clean sweep again. But like Brandon Jill said, like TJ.

571
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: Watt is just so valuable, where like the Bengals have

572
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 1: really just beat up on really bad teams of as

573
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 1: of recent where their first game without Jamar Chase, they

574
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 1: got blown out by the Browns on the road, and

575
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: then they beat up up by the Panthers the very

576
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:37,919
Speaker 1: next week, which was at home without Chase, where like

577
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 1: who knows, like it was the Panthers, where Like in

578
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 1: divisional games this year they beat the they lost the

579
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 1: Ravens by two, and they beat the Steelers by three.

580
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 2: So like this this.

581
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: Is gonna be a divisional home dog, which maybe the

582
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 1: public is gonna be on it. The public is due

583
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: for some regression in its favor. But sometimes, like the cliches,

584
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: sides are just the right ones. And you couldn't pay

585
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,439
Speaker 1: me to take the Bangals in this spot. I'll just

586
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: take the Steelers plus four for every angle the other

587
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 1: two guys just said. It's just an easy one.

588
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 6: Folks.

589
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 4: This is not a repeat episode. I repeat, this is

590
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 4: not a repeat episode from last week because the final

591
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 4: pick from all three of these guys was Pittsburgh last

592
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 4: week and they went straight up against the UH against

593
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 4: the Saints, and that was.

594
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 7: We are, by the way, now two and oh or

595
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 7: six and now, depending how you slice it, when all

596
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 7: three of us on the pod are on the same side,

597
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 7: clean sweep and wins both times Packers Bears earlier, Steelers

598
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 7: last week, let's do it again with Steelers Bengals.

599
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 1: It would be it'd be two and oh plus six

600
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: units exactly.

601
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 3: Right, Okay, it'd be good.

602
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 6: And by the way, the UH taking a look at

603
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 6: the action app here.

604
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 4: Money is coming in on Pittsburgh ninety four percent of

605
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 4: the money, fifty seven percent of the bets. But as

606
00:28:58,000 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 4: Brandon said, I mean he Brandon's been all this since

607
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 4: rel in the week. He mentioned it with Jill on

608
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 4: the pod on the recap show. So hopefully you got

609
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 4: a better number than four where it is right now.

610
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 4: Before we wrap the show, it's just a quick look

611
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 4: at next week's lines for week twelve to see if

612
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 4: you like any numbers now before. The lines are just

613
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 4: during slash after Sunday and Monday's action.

614
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 6: Brandon, what do you like for week twelve?

615
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 2: So?

616
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 7: I genuinely thought this line was a typo so much

617
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 7: that I literally, just now one minute ago, pulled it

618
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,959
Speaker 7: up again to check and make sure it's not a typo.

619
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 7: Give me the Baltimore Ravens at the Jacksonville Jaguars next

620
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 7: week minus three and a half. What what are we doing?

621
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 7: The Jaguars haven't been good since September. The Ravens look

622
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 7: like a possible Super Bowl team. The Ravens are great,

623
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 7: you guys. They're coming off a bye week. They're playing

624
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 7: the Panthers, so they're about to blow Carolina out of

625
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 7: the water. Remind everyone just how good they are. The defense,

626
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 7: added Rokwan Smith looked great in his game. Tys Bowser

627
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 7: and David Ajabo are back. It looks like Ajabo may

628
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 7: play this week. Arcus Williams the safety back soon maybe

629
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 7: by next week as well. Mark Andrews is back. That's

630
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 7: their leading receiver and not Rashad Bateman. The Ravens are

631
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 7: loaded and a really good team. Jacksonville Dboa says they're

632
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 7: kind of a league average team, but they also played

633
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 7: the third easiest schedule, and they really haven't looked good

634
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 7: since September.

635
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 3: If you just go.

636
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 7: October one forward, Jacksonville ranks second to last defensively, twenty

637
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 7: seventh in DVOA. Look, I was on Jags earlier. That

638
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 7: was my worst to first division pick. You got to

639
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 7: be willing to admit when you're wrong on some of these.

640
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 7: I was way off Seattle Island coming into the year too,

641
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 7: and sometimes you got to make a hard pivot.

642
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 3: Jacksonville is not very good. I don't know why this

643
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 3: line is so short. I guess the reason.

644
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 7: Really, Jacksonville will be on a bye this week, as

645
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 7: you mentioned, Brendan, so they got the rest against the Ravens.

646
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:51,479
Speaker 3: I don't know.

647
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 7: Isn't playing the Panthers basically a bye week for the Ravens.

648
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 7: I think they basically just get a second bye week here.

649
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 7: So Doug Peterson after a bye week only one in

650
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 7: four against the spread, not going to scare me away here,

651
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,239
Speaker 7: Harbaugh against an opponent coming off of bye ten to

652
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 7: four and two. Go ahead, take all the time you need.

653
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 7: We're still just going to run it right down your throat,

654
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 7: says Harba road favorites of a touchdown or less against

655
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 7: an opponent coming off of by sixty percent.

656
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 3: Cover rate historically.

657
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 7: So I'll take the Ravens minus three and a half

658
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 7: before they blow out the Panthers, and I think this line.

659
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 3: Goes up after that.

660
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 2: So give me baal time. This one's definitely going up.

661
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 1: I mean, like this is in Jacksonville, right, Jacksonville, yep,

662
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: like out like the two home fields that like just

663
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 1: weird things happen that make me crazy. You're like Buffalo

664
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 1: and then Jacksonville.

665
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 6: Like that's email Andy you said earlier.

666
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, but yeah, this one has to go up. It's

667
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 1: just it's crazy.

668
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 7: Really, I don't understand the line. I literally had to

669
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 7: check it again. I checked it like four times before

670
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 7: prepping for this, and I looked at it. I was like,

671
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 7: surely they've fixed it by now, right, No, No, still

672
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 7: out there. Get your Ravens tickets in.

673
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 4: And going back to your going back to the off

674
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 4: season too. There were hopes for Jacksonville year two. Trevor

675
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 4: Lawrence also Peterson was a sexy pick for Coach of

676
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 4: the Year.

677
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 6: When this line opened in May, it was Baltimore minus four.

678
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 4: It hasn't even changed all that much since the since

679
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 4: the lines were first put out in the early spring, and.

680
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 1: At Jacksonville in Jacksonville, like and I lived in Jacksonville

681
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 1: for two years. Like it's getting cold there right now,

682
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 1: Like if like he was a like edge for them

683
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 1: like Miami was, Jacksonville is not hot right now. And

684
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: I keep forgetting about a Jabo from like draft days,

685
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: like they're just adding a first round pick. It's insane, Yeah,

686
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 1: like a top ten pick if healthy.

687
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 7: So yeah, I think what happens on some of these

688
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 7: is you put the team on a bye week and

689
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 7: we just kind of like I passed, We'll come back

690
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 7: to them later. So I think we just kind of

691
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 7: forgot about Baltimore. And you know, once all our tickets

692
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 7: start coming out of Baltimore here, I think the books

693
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 7: will sharpen up and move this line towards the Ravens.

694
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 7: I think by Sunday night, if the Ravens go out

695
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 7: and stomp on the Panthers by like twenty points or something,

696
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 7: this line is not gonna be three and a half

697
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 7: on Sunday night when you get a chance to bet

698
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 7: it again.

699
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 3: So I'll take it right now.

700
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, And even even look just the Ravens being where

701
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 4: they are in the Super Bowl odds right now is

702
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,239
Speaker 4: like this, this is not It doesn't add up. So

703
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 4: anybody else before we wrap up, anyone else, get to

704
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 4: look ahead spot we.

705
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 6: Good saw that?

706
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 2: Do you say Namdi su got signed by the Eagles?

707
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 6: He did?

708
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 3: Yes?

709
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: Adam Roseven is such god, he's such a boss, like

710
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 1: you just love gms and what's the Jets GM's name Douglas,

711
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: like Douglas wrote, like Douglas.

712
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 2: Specifically, who I think should win executive here?

713
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 1: Like making moves when you need like you have like

714
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: the Twitter world saying like oh this coach should do this,

715
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 1: gems should do this where like usually it doesn't happen

716
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: for like sagar Cap reasons, but just seeing gms make

717
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 1: moves that need to happen because they have a problem

718
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 1: is like so refreshing. Like the Eagles have been getting cashed,

719
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,719
Speaker 1: so they just added a fatty in the middle, like

720
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 1: which doesn't change my thoughts on Sunday.

721
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 4: But okay, good, Well, maybe if he's active, if he's

722
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:11,800
Speaker 4: in shape and ready to play and learn some plays,

723
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 4: maybe that helps.

724
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 6: The neck line goes up to seven, so for sure, and.

725
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 5: He'll never be able to live down Jalen Rego over

726
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 5: Justin Jefferson though, that's the one pockmark on his resume.

727
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 7: That's right, Let's end on that note instead of the

728
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 7: other Eagles Vikings one.

729
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 4: All right, Well, I think that's it because now we're

730
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 4: starting to wander because we're excited and we're looking forward

731
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,479
Speaker 4: to another good week. Back to back six and three

732
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 4: weeks here on the Best Bets podcast, let's recap before

733
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:43,280
Speaker 4: we leave. Brandon Anderson is on Cliff Kingsbury's Cardinals plus

734
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 4: eight and a half in Mexico City against the Niners.

735
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 6: He likes the Bears.

736
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,280
Speaker 4: Team total over twenty two and a half points against

737
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 4: the Falcons. He's on Pittsburgh plus four against Cincinnati. Jill

738
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 4: likes New England against the Jets at home minus three

739
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 4: and a half. He has Dallas Minnesota over forty seven

740
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 4: and a half points, also on Pittsburgh. A reminder this

741
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 4: is not a repeat episode, I promise, and Luke Swayin

742
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 4: is on Indy plus seven against the Eagles, Dallas moneyline against.

743
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 6: The Vikings, and also on the Steelers.

744
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 4: That'll do It here on the Action Network podcast for

745
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 4: our NFL week eleven Best Bets, presented by Fandel, thanks

746
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 4: to Brandon Anderson, Joe Galant, Luke Swain, David Payne. Behind

747
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 4: the scenes, I'm your host, Brendan glass Sheeen. Best of

748
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 4: luck with all of your bets this weekend. We will

749
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 4: see you again Monday right here on the Action Network

750
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,320
Speaker 4: podcast for the recap show good Luck this weekend,