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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am live from my Tommy John home studio. I'm

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Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,

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Speaker 1: my BFF, professional better, Simon Hunter and Hols.

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Speaker 2: I'm in Hello, Chad, how are we doing, dude?

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a great day today, especially this show.

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Speaker 1: I feel like there were two games in particular that

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Speaker 1: I cannot wait to dig into, one of which we

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Speaker 1: discussed you were being bullied. I wanted you to stand strong.

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Speaker 1: One of which I came in hot and you immediately

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Speaker 1: flip me to other side. Today is our NFL Week

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Speaker 1: five Best Bets episode, where Simon and I narrow down

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Speaker 1: our five picks in the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars

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Speaker 1: Pro Football Pick Some contest presented by BET three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Can still sign up Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. We

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Speaker 1: will also get into the Foxhole give out. Are still Undefeated,

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Speaker 1: Tommy John Big Balls Bet of the Week discuss Simon's

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Speaker 1: biggest bets are boosted money Line Underdog Parlay, which cast

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Speaker 1: cashed last week, the Underdog Round Robin, and so much more.

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Speaker 1: Bets are rolling in, lines are moving, decision need to

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Speaker 1: be made. As our volume podcast, boss Colin Cowherd likes

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Speaker 1: to say, there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm going to

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Speaker 3: be generationally wealthy.

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Speaker 2: There's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: three six five and now new Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you

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Speaker 1: bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit

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Speaker 1: ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to get

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Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can

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Speaker 1: be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioned

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. All right, we need to give a note

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Speaker 1: at the top of the podcast because Evan has some stats.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of us have been feeling like

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Speaker 1: these numbers are so tight. If you have been feeling

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Speaker 1: like every line is two, three, four, or five, you're

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Speaker 1: not wrong. This week, only two of the fourteen games

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Speaker 1: on the slate have a spread of six or more.

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Speaker 1: Nine have spreads under a field goal. Looking at next week,

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Speaker 1: every look aheadline is under a touchdown. If you think

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Speaker 1: that kind of parody is normal, it is nine. The

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Speaker 1: average spread for an NFL favorite this season is four

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Speaker 1: point two points per game through the first four weeks.

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Speaker 1: That's the lowest number since the NFL strike season of

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Speaker 1: nineteen eighty. To take out that strike season, it's the

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Speaker 1: lowest since the fall of nineteen sixty during the campaign

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Speaker 1: for president between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. That's insane.

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Speaker 3: And they may well ask why choose this, as I'll

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Speaker 3: go on, Why climb the highest mountain? Why fly the Atlantic?

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Speaker 3: Why does Rice play Texas? Not because they are easy,

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Speaker 3: but because they are hard? Because that challenge is one

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Speaker 3: that we're willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postponed,

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Speaker 3: and one we intend to win.

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Speaker 1: Does it feel like it's been harder or are we

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Speaker 1: making more of it than it is.

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't say harder is the right verb.

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Speaker 2: I would say it's than the league's ever been more competitive,

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Speaker 2: which I love.

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Speaker 4: This is a weekend.

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Speaker 2: If you're into college football, you can probably take this

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Speaker 2: weekend off. You're not really getting that in the NFL

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Speaker 2: right now, right we have a lot of really good

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Speaker 2: close games.

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Speaker 4: That's the best part about this league.

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Speaker 2: And you know, sometimes people say it makes it tougher

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Speaker 2: for betting, but not meet chat. I see a lot

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Speaker 2: of value this week, So I'm excited to dive into

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Speaker 2: these games me too.

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Speaker 1: I feel good. I actually felt like we were looking

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Speaker 1: at some games and finding some real clarity. There's gonna

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Speaker 1: be some real distinction between pros and Joe's and games

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Speaker 1: that are bet and ugly. As always, on Thursdays during

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Speaker 1: the season, we like to hear how the wise guys

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Speaker 1: responding to our Tuesday conversation. I think that's especially true

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Speaker 1: this week. We had a lot of questions on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: We were wondering what the feedback would be the lines move.

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Speaker 1: Based on our conversation Silon, the pros feel compelled to

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Speaker 1: weigh in. Let's do it, Sharp Colls.

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Speaker 4: Hello, who's there.

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Speaker 2: I'm talking Rain rain telephone range.

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Speaker 1: Somebody said, maybe what you do man?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's start just where the pros are split right now.

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Speaker 2: We talked earlier in the week about this Panther Chicago game.

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Speaker 2: The professionals are split on that game. They like both

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Speaker 2: sides for various reasons. Sam could be said for this

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Speaker 2: Jaguires Colts game we talked about earlier in the week.

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Speaker 2: That's a really split game. Denver Raiders a game we

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Speaker 2: talked about. That's another game that's really split. Talked a

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Speaker 2: lot of professionals forty nine Ers, Cardinals, same deal. There's

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Speaker 2: there's people on both sides. Both are both guys are,

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Speaker 2: you know, taking positions on what they believe in. And

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Speaker 2: you know this last one, this Chief Saints game. Shockingly,

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Speaker 2: I thought it was gonna be pros Joe's it's actually

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Speaker 2: a pretty split chat. I know some professionals that actually

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Speaker 2: liked them match up for this Chiefs team here, I

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Speaker 2: think it's more about fading. Derek Carr. So interesting to

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Speaker 2: dive into all those ones. For us, the pros, I

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Speaker 2: lined up with a lot of sides we loved, right.

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Speaker 2: They love the Rams a game we talked about. They

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Speaker 2: love the Bengals the game we talked about. They love Houston.

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Speaker 2: That's another one we talked about in the game. I

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Speaker 2: kind of am getting you there, but I'm not sure

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Speaker 2: you're totally committed yet. Is Pittsburgh. That's just the pros

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Speaker 2: love this Pittsburgh side. The public absolutely loves the Dallas side.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, you're definitely right. This is a big Pros

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Speaker 2: versus Joe's week. It's very split, and it scares me

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Speaker 2: a little bit because the public there du chat, they've

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Speaker 2: been taking a beating this year. They are definitely overdue

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Speaker 2: to have a good week. So will it be this week?

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Speaker 4: I hope not.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the public has been getting slammed this year. I

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Speaker 1: can't remember the exact number. I know Evan. As soon

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Speaker 1: as I said that, Evan put his fingers on the keyboard.

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Speaker 1: I can see it in the screen. He's checking the

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Speaker 1: latest stats to see how the public is doing this year,

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Speaker 1: and he'll put it in the chat. But I know, Look,

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Speaker 1: last year was the best year the public had ever had.

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Speaker 1: This year, the public has been getting slammed through four weeks.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad they raised some of these games the betting public,

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Speaker 1: so fifty one percent of tickets or more twenty two

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Speaker 1: and thirty eight and two against the spread this season.

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Speaker 1: So look, that's that is the worst start for the

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Speaker 1: betting public through the first four weeks in the last

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Speaker 1: twenty years. By the way, how amazing is Evan Abrams

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Speaker 1: that before I even finished the sentence, he already had

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Speaker 1: the stat in the chat thirty seven percent against the spread.

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Speaker 1: That guy is a freaking magician, Simon. This is why

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Speaker 1: when we do live events, people want Evan to sign

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Speaker 1: their authentic NFL jerseys. True, he's amazing. That Pittsburgh game

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Speaker 1: is interesting. I'm glad you brought it up. I definitely

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Speaker 1: want to talk about that one, all right, Carolina Chicago.

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Speaker 1: It's I I understand why the wise guys are split

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Speaker 1: for us. It was see you.

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Speaker 2: I can't believe.

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Speaker 1: I can see it. You know why, I can totally

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Speaker 1: see it because look when we talked about it Sunday night,

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Speaker 1: and we loved the Bears at five.

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Speaker 2: That was the plays.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we love the Panthers at five. That was

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Speaker 1: the play. It was a one number play. It got

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Speaker 1: back down to three and a half and then it

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Speaker 1: came back up to four. So I could see why

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Speaker 1: Wise guys were coming in on the three and a

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Speaker 1: half and from a matchup perspective makes perfect sense, right,

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Speaker 1: Like the the Bear strengths play to what are now

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Speaker 1: some strengths for the Panthers. The Bears are great in coverage,

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Speaker 1: great in pass rush, right, so they can do things

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Speaker 1: to Andy Dalton and maybe he has a confront so

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Speaker 1: far in the games that he's played in stabilizing this team.

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Speaker 1: The Panthers are probably first or second in a run blocking.

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Speaker 1: The Bears are not very good against the run, So

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Speaker 1: I do think that's an advantage for the Panthers, and

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Speaker 1: if they're smart enough to game plan to the Bears weakness,

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Speaker 1: they could change the peace of this game and keep

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Speaker 1: it a little bit closer. Meanwhile, the strength for the

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Speaker 1: Bears potentially could be Caleb Williams, who has been improving

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Speaker 1: getting the ball downfield against a team that is twenty

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Speaker 1: sixth and coverage. So I can see why wise guys

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Speaker 1: see both sides of this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And you know, going back to Evans article. He

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Speaker 2: talked about how Caleb Williams we've never had let him

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Speaker 2: one pick start the way he started. Right, He's three

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Speaker 2: to one against the spread. You know, three games they've

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Speaker 2: been the favorite on the spread, which is pretty wild

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Speaker 2: to think will be the fourth game now that he's.

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Speaker 4: A favorite on the spread.

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Speaker 2: So you know, all the hype, all the public being

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Speaker 2: all over this team, You're right, like this has been

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Speaker 2: a really impressive start for this Bears team. I can

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Speaker 2: see why, you know, the public is still going to

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Speaker 2: be backing this spare team. I just from a betting perspective,

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Speaker 2: You're right, it's just like man at three and a half,

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Speaker 2: I guess that makes sense to be on the Bears,

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Speaker 2: But any other number you got to take Panthers, especially

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Speaker 2: now that it's back up to four. So I just

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Speaker 2: don't know if this's gonda up want to be one

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Speaker 2: of our fives now because I just don't really have

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Speaker 2: confidence in this number. But it is a game. I

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Speaker 2: bet on the Panthers, and maybe I'll end up being

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Speaker 2: a money line around Robin. But it just it's just

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Speaker 2: the lust and the love I've had for this number

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Speaker 2: on Sunday is kind of where off by the time

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Speaker 2: we've hit Thursday.

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Speaker 5: Here.

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Speaker 1: Well, listen, you're still young, but you less than love.

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Speaker 1: It just doesn't last that long when you're old like me.

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Speaker 1: It really I'm thirty years in at this point, so

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Speaker 1: I can understand why I could continue to love the

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Speaker 1: Panthers and why at this point the Pan' I don't

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Speaker 1: think it'll end up this way right now. The Panthers

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Speaker 1: are my biggest bet of the weekend, but that's also

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Speaker 1: because I bet him at plus five. So I will

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Speaker 1: probably pile more money into some of these games that

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Speaker 1: we're going to be talking about, including one I think

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Speaker 1: that will surprise you as we get closer on I'm

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Speaker 1: not uncomfortable with the Bears with the Panthers being one

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Speaker 1: of our five. If we end up getting it at

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Speaker 1: four and a half, it's not going to be four.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be four and a half or three

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Speaker 1: and a half. So you know, Buffalo Houston, like this

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Speaker 1: was a wait and see game for us. We wanted

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Speaker 1: sort of the hope expectation that the line, the line

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Speaker 1: may go up a little bit we get a bigger

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Speaker 1: number on Houston. There are some places where it's at

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Speaker 1: one and a half. We like the line flipping in.

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Speaker 1: The Texans favor teams to open and as an underdog

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Speaker 1: and close as a favorite. So in this case, the

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Speaker 1: Bills have historically struggled to cover that number. Basically, there's

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Speaker 1: seventy one and one hundred since twenty nineteen. This week,

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Speaker 1: We've got a few candidates there. Pittsburgh, we'll talk about

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Speaker 1: that one. Green Bay talk about that one. Washington, we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about that one. Baltimore, we'll talk about that one.

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Speaker 1: So interesting here, I'm liking Houston more and more.

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Speaker 2: I do really like Houston. I would just say, you know,

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Speaker 2: talking to professionals and hearing their reasoning for being on

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Speaker 2: the Bills even at this number, still this late into

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Speaker 2: the week, it's all sounds them trusting Josh Allen more

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Speaker 2: in this spot after a loss. I think even Evan

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Speaker 2: had it like he's he's good at bouncing back after

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Speaker 2: those type of games, but not so much at covering

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Speaker 2: in these type of games. Right, He's good at winning

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Speaker 2: them straight up. And that's what's tough here is this

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Speaker 2: is a straight up winner number. Right at plus one

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Speaker 2: and a half, you have a little bit more wiggle room,

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Speaker 2: but when it's just plus one it's like, Okay, we're

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Speaker 2: betting on Houston to win this game, Like there's no

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Speaker 2: real action here on the spread at plus one, so

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Speaker 2: uh yeah, in our contest, this will probably be plus

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Speaker 2: one and a half. My dream was that, right the

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Speaker 2: public would come in heavy on this Bill team when

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Speaker 2: we would get a really good number at plus two

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Speaker 2: plus two and a half on this Houston team, the

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Speaker 2: professionals have just kept it down right. Anytime it's even

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Speaker 2: crept up close to two, they've kind of hit it

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Speaker 2: back down a one and a half at a lot

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Speaker 2: of these public books. So look at that matchup wise,

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Speaker 2: we talked about it. I wanted to see Joe Mixon

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Speaker 2: in practice. Unfortunately he didn't practice yesterday. With what time

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Speaker 2: we're doing the show out right now, we just don't

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Speaker 2: have the information if he's going to be out there

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Speaker 2: for their practice. I believe it starts either at two

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Speaker 2: or one thirty Houston's practice, so we'll know better info after.

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Speaker 4: This show's over.

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Speaker 2: But even if it's cam makers, I can still in

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Speaker 2: my mind lie to myself be like, oh, well, he's

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Speaker 2: good enough to make this war. But yeah, when you

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Speaker 2: go back and watch that Bill's Ravens game, it is

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Speaker 2: pretty damning how you can really attack the middle of

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Speaker 2: the field.

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Speaker 4: And the tape might be out now on this Bill's.

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Speaker 2: Team, So gonna be interesting if McDermot can make a

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Speaker 2: adjustment here and you know, fix this defense in a

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Speaker 2: one week turnaround on the road and back to back weeks.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, like we like the spot for Houston.

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Speaker 4: We talk all the time.

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Speaker 2: We like CJ as a dog. Right, he's six and

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Speaker 2: three in his career as a dog. I think he's

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Speaker 2: three and eight or three and seven as a favorite.

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Speaker 2: So for us right in the wave that is this

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Speaker 2: Houston team, you expect this to be a good spot.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 2: They didn't play well against the Jacksonville team, but they

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Speaker 2: found a way to win. This is a game you

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Speaker 2: assume they'd start playing better because the matchup does favor them.

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Speaker 2: And on the flip side, there's a reason that Bills

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Speaker 2: are been the conversation for Devanta Adams. As fun as

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Speaker 2: it is, having a bunch of nameless guys and trying

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Speaker 2: to make it work, you do need someone on third

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Speaker 2: down you can depend on. And who knows if Josh

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Speaker 2: set it to his coaching staff or the owner or

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Speaker 2: the gym or whoever, that he wonts someone like that

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Speaker 2: on this team, because they should be going after someone

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Speaker 2: like Devont Dams, Like, this team's too good, Josh Allen's

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Speaker 2: too good to waste a year.

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Speaker 4: So the Spills team, Chad, maybe this is the time

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Speaker 4: we do attack.

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Speaker 2: And I think we maybe overrated them a little bit

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Speaker 2: because they played three bad teams to start the season.

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Speaker 4: So this is another great test for them.

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Speaker 2: On the same side for Houston, like, we'll get a

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Speaker 2: nice gauge of what this Houston team is because they

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Speaker 2: got absolutely rolled against that Vikings team. So yeah, we're

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Speaker 2: basically just playing the number here, playing the dog at

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Speaker 2: plus one plus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Look, the numbers matter, especially when we put it in

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Speaker 1: context with what Evan said in his notes earlier about

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Speaker 1: parody has never been more evident with the spreads being

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Speaker 1: historically low, right, And just look at the Cowboys Giants

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Speaker 1: game on Thursday night. We loved the Cowboys when the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys were at four four and a half before the game,

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Speaker 1: and then over twenty four hour that was like Tuesday Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: Over the next twenty four hours, it bumped back up

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Speaker 1: to five and a half. It got up to six

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Speaker 1: in some places, if you got the best of the number,

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Speaker 1: and that's never been more important. That half point when

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Speaker 1: the spreads are this small, means so much. The Cowboys

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Speaker 1: won that game by five, Aubrey missed the field goal

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Speaker 1: to put them up by eight. That's the difference. And

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Speaker 1: when the spreads are as small as they are, half

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Speaker 1: a point is by a percentage margin because that much

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Speaker 1: more important when you're trying to make these decisions. So

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Speaker 1: the difference between one and one and a half, in

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Speaker 1: again where Josh Allen historically doesn't cover, is the difference

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Speaker 1: between winning and losing. If you like the Texans in

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Speaker 1: this game, I think it's worth it to try to

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Speaker 1: find a one and a half somewhere. I do agree

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Speaker 1: Nico Collins is just a monster right now and CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud can find some of that third down mojo in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the field against a Bill's defense that

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Speaker 1: really doesn't have linebackers and more importantly, doesn't have any

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Speaker 1: safeties right now who can play with any effectiveness against

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Speaker 1: someone like Nico Collins.

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Speaker 2: Take Dell, Take and Dell.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not sure I can convince myself that Cam

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Speaker 1: Ankers can do what Joe Mixing can do. There is

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Speaker 1: a massive difference, but I can I can convince myself

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Speaker 1: that Joe Mixon if if he is, if they have been,

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Speaker 1: if Demiko Ryans has said Joe Mixon is day to day,

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Speaker 1: which is what he said earlier in the week, didn't

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Speaker 1: practice on a Wednesday, which is a veteran thing. It

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Speaker 1: might be right if he doesn't practice today, I still

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Speaker 1: might be able to convince myself that he's playing this weekend.

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Speaker 1: I'm putting Houston down just as like maybe maybe, but

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Speaker 1: it's definitely not Foxhall. All right, one game, this was

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Speaker 1: your assignment, says Baltimore, since he sincey two and a half. Wise,

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Speaker 1: guys coming in on the Bengals. If you made it

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Speaker 1: the Simon says it three, it makes perfect sense. Like

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Speaker 1: it's not technically a bi low Sell high spot right now,

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Speaker 1: certainly a cell on the Ravens and a Bengals team

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Speaker 1: that has played well offensively the past few weeks. I

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Speaker 1: do like that you mentioned Burrow as an MVP candidate

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Currently twenty two to one. Reminder, in this spot,

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Speaker 1: home Division dogs fifty four percent against the spread since

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty. In September and October, the past ten years

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Speaker 1: sixty percent against the spread. The real question is there

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Speaker 1: are some books Simon where the juice is indicating this

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Speaker 1: code go back to three. Do people wait for it

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Speaker 1: to get back to three or do they just take

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Speaker 1: the two.

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Speaker 4: And a half.

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Speaker 2: I'd wait, how does the public not keep coming in

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Speaker 2: on this team, especially where you know people have more

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Speaker 2: access to the numbers everyone just looked at the basically

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Speaker 2: the look at right now is the Bengals are one

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Speaker 2: of the worst teams against the run on football, and

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Speaker 2: that's exactly what the raven was gonna do. So I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, most fans are gonna hear that this whole

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Speaker 2: weekend and comes Sunday. I think it's gonna be too

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Speaker 2: tempting for them to not take this Ravens team at

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Speaker 2: minus two and a half, especially where you know, one

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Speaker 2: of my favorite stats ever is is if it's Lamar

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Speaker 2: and it's under a field goal, he's up to what

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Speaker 2: twenty four and seven now against the spread in the

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Speaker 2: spot when he's either under three or an underdog. So

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Speaker 2: you know, the trends point to it too as well.

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Speaker 2: We're really just playing the city team that they're gonna

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Speaker 2: be able to figure out this Ravens team and just

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Speaker 2: make them one dimensional. Right, everything I've read and seen,

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Speaker 2: it's just like they know what they need to do.

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Speaker 2: They need to just load the box and try to

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Speaker 2: make Lamar beat you with his arm.

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Speaker 4: And you know, the key to that offense in the

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Speaker 4: Ravens is all the misdirection.

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Speaker 2: When you go back and watch that Bills game, half

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Speaker 2: the team is going to the left, the other half's

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Speaker 2: going to the right, and there'll be none in the middle,

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Speaker 2: and they would just run it up the middle. Then

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Speaker 2: when if they would have guys stay in the middle,

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Speaker 2: Lamar would read it and they just take it out

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Speaker 2: to the right. It was everything they wanted to do

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Speaker 2: in that game that kind of had.

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Speaker 4: Them off tilt.

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Speaker 2: And you know in this matchup, I could see the

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Speaker 2: censing out really being thrown off by it.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 2: They see Lamar twice a year every year. They kind

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Speaker 2: of know what's coming at this point. So I'm not

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Speaker 2: shocked that this numbers come down just because I knew

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Speaker 2: the professionals would come in on the three.

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Speaker 4: The shocking part of it is even like the Joe.

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Speaker 2: Public books moved at two and a half, So that

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Speaker 2: was pretty shocking to me that they're they're inviting all

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Speaker 2: this Ravens money, which means the books are taking their

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Speaker 2: own position on this one because they knew as soon

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Speaker 2: as that Sunday in that game ended, they're like, okay,

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Speaker 2: this is gonna be one of our biggest needs for

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Speaker 2: the sides. Right, they knew everybody's to come in so

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Speaker 2: heavy on this Ravens team just because people were, you know,

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Speaker 2: all week we're talking about the Bills the best team

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Speaker 2: of football, Josh Allen's you know, the MVP.

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Speaker 4: That's just how this league works, right, so weak the week.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, for us, Jed, this is just a prime

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Speaker 2: spot where even if Cincinnati gets rolled here, we were

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Speaker 2: never gonna dodge this bullet. Like we love playing these spots,

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Speaker 2: playing these was these home divisional dogs, So contest Deviso

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Speaker 2: is hoping we're gonna get spoiled and get a three

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Speaker 2: and a half because that would have been such a

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Speaker 2: key number in this game. But it feels like we

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Speaker 2: have to bite the bull and just take it two

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Speaker 2: and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we are. I agree with you. This is going

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Speaker 1: to be a contest play. Yeah, there's really there's no

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Speaker 1: question it's the right spot to play. The Bengals as

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Speaker 1: scary as it is. I I the the thing that

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Speaker 1: will make us think twice is that Lamar Jackson stat.

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Speaker 1: If not for that Lamar Jackson stat about a short

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Speaker 1: favorite or an underdog, I don't have any hesitation at

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Speaker 1: all playing the Bengals really at almost any number between

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Speaker 1: two and three, two, two and a half or three.

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Speaker 1: But that gives me a little pause. I think the

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Speaker 1: Bengals are the right side, but that gives me a

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Speaker 1: little bit of pause.

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Speaker 2: No, I agree, I mean, honestly, it's it's why I've

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Speaker 2: just been riding this this Ravens team last two weeks,

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Speaker 2: like they've been really good to me. I know we

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Speaker 2: haven't had the contest, but like you know, me person,

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Speaker 2: I had been betting them. So this is just this

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Speaker 2: is part of the game where it's like eventually the

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Speaker 2: value gets too high, and I think it's gotten too high.

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Speaker 4: You're on this this Ravens team.

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Speaker 1: The next game that we got to talk about, we're

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Speaker 1: betting means doing bad things that make you really uncomfortable.

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Speaker 1: Cleveland at Washington, it wasn't three and a half came

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Speaker 1: down to three, trending back towards three and a half.

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Speaker 1: All the money, all the tickets on Washington talk about

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Speaker 1: Bilo sell High. I hate this, I hate it, I

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Speaker 1: hate it, but at some point we have to fade Washington,

436
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 1: and in this game, it's either Cleveland or to pass.

437
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: Like there's no there's no other option here.

438
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 2: I took another option I ended up taking. I told you,

439
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 2: I took Washington minus three.

440
00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 1: And it's just I think it's a mistake, big mistake.

441
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 2: It probably is, But I can't find a reason to

442
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 2: bet Cleveland.

443
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 4: Like even when I went through.

444
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,439
Speaker 2: Evans trends, there were no like huge trends. You got

445
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 2: to ride these trends to bet this Cleveland team here.

446
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 2: I think we're all betting it just because the books

447
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 2: coming into the year, and myself included, we're down on

448
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 2: this Washington team. Everyone's thinking, Okay, they've overcorrected at this point,

449
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: and my view is is, I don't know if they have.

450
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,400
Speaker 2: Like to me, this number feels right for how bad

451
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 2: this Cleveland team is, it's they've only they're only getting

452
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 2: worse every week. And you're really, if you're making this bet,

453
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,360
Speaker 2: you're really betting on Jim Schwartz figuring out Jayden Daniels

454
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 2: Like there is there is no world where if Washington

455
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 2: gets over twenty one points, does Cleveland stay in this game.

456
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,399
Speaker 4: I just I have no faith watching Desaun Watson.

457
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 2: I mean that Vegas team is not that good and

458
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 2: they had no Max Crosby, and he looked terrible once again.

459
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson, I mean he is.

460
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 2: I think he's like the fifty third graded QB right

461
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 2: now in the NFL, which sounds insane, I even real,

462
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 2: but that's a real statu It's how bad he's been

463
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 2: this season. So I get it, Chad, like the professional

464
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 2: me wants to take him. That's why it's like I

465
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: barely even really bet this game because I have no

466
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 2: read on it where I know I'm probably doing the

467
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:17,120
Speaker 2: wrong thing and I'm overvaluing this Washington offense, but it's

468
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 2: like they match up well offensively and then defensively. I

469
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 2: don't really know if Watson don't attack this weakness of

470
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 2: this team in their secondary.

471
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 4: So you're right, this is probably where I should bet him.

472
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 2: But it's like I can't love every dog, and this

473
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 2: dog I just don't.

474
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 1: Like, we don't know about David and Djoku. If he

475
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 1: will be back after three games, I think that would

476
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 1: make a huge difference. For Deshaun Watson. I think we

477
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 1: need another day of practice to know what his status is.

478
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: I will give you one stat that plays to playing Cleveland.

479
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 1: Teams covering the spread by more than five points per game,

480
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: which is the Washington Commanders only cover forty three percent

481
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: of the time when facing teams with a winning percentage

482
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: of less than sixty percent, which is the Cleveland Browns.

483
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: So there is a direct by low sell high stat

484
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 1: to help us make help us be a little bit

485
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 1: more comfortable betting Cleveland. I don't think I want to

486
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 1: bet them at three. If I'm going to bet him,

487
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 1: I want the three and a half, and it's probably

488
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 1: going to be a quarter unit to half a unit way.

489
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 1: It's I don't know. I don't think it's gonna be

490
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: a big one, but I think we're gonna have a

491
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: hard time finding the final five, and this one could

492
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 1: be one of the last ones out or the last

493
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 1: one in.

494
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: That's actual worry. I already got our five or six

495
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 2: if you want to, but we'll get there.

496
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 4: Don't worry. This does not need to be one of

497
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 4: our five. I could good.

498
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 2: I can't cheering on Watson this Sunday, the autumn win

499
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 2: is a rader pillaging.

500
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: Just Las Vegas at Denver. I don't know what's happening

501
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: with this game, you said, like you pointed out, this

502
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 1: is a game that's split. Are we fading the Broncos offense?

503
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:15,199
Speaker 1: Are we betting against sort of the short division home favorite?

504
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: Don't forget last twenty years, that's forty five percent, just

505
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 1: as a short home favorite of three points or last

506
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: the past since twenty twenty that's forty four percent. I'm sorry,

507
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 1: forty two percent. So there is a trend here to

508
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 1: fade the Broncos. But Jesus Christ, like the Raiders offense

509
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: is terrible, The Broncos offense is terrible. The Broncos defense

510
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: is playing at an elite level. I know why this

511
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: is split. We were pretty heavy on the not heavy,

512
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: but we were intrigued by the Raiders Sunday and then

513
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 1: early in the week.

514
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:00,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just really liked the especially when I got

515
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 2: up to plus three. It's like that feels like way

516
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,479
Speaker 2: too much respect to bo Nicks, who just won two

517
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 2: straight road games.

518
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 4: Now they're coming home, and.

519
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 2: You know, I get the reaction to it, and historically,

520
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 2: I mean even haven't had it in as notes, I

521
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 2: mean this Raiders team, I think they're twelve and one

522
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 2: the last thirteen against the spread against this Denver team,

523
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 2: like they usually own Denver, that's the one thing in

524
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: this division they do well against. I don't know what

525
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 2: to do either, Chat. I think we're just scared because

526
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 2: the number doesn't make sense, Like why there's no sense? Yeah,

527
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 2: Like some books do have it at one and a

528
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 2: half though, so like to me, that gives me a

529
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 2: little more confidence where it's like, okay, at least you know,

530
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 2: some some books are taking professional money on this Raiders

531
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 2: team and they're bending down because I don't get it either.

532
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 2: Like I also thought maybe it's DeVante Adams stuff the

533
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 2: drama in the locker room, but apparently does not even

534
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 2: let him come into the facility right now, So it's like, okay,

535
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 2: that's not an excuse yet either.

536
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:55,920
Speaker 4: So I don't know what to do either.

537
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 2: Like the problem is CHAT with this this sometimes it

538
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 2: is too easy and we should just try us the

539
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 2: number and be like this isn't a trap. This is

540
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 2: a good number.

541
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 4: We should bet it.

542
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 2: But I think we both were just a little wary

543
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 2: of this one. There's something a little off with this

544
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 2: number and the fact that I know that there's professional

545
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 2: the other side, you know, they kind of talk about

546
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 2: what you're talking about here. They really like that defensive

547
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 2: front for Denver. They think they're gonna give them trouble

548
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,159
Speaker 2: to this Raiders team. On the flip side, they think

549
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 2: they'll little move the ball against this Raiders team with

550
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,120
Speaker 2: bo Nicks in this offense. So I get where they're

551
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 2: coming from. I just I can't believe bon Nicks is

552
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,239
Speaker 2: a three point favorite over an NFL team right now.

553
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: So that's my hardest one to adjust here. It's like

554
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 2: divisional game. The Raiders aren't that bad, right, they're two

555
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 2: and two. It's just, man, I can't believe this number

556
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: is two and a half three. It is.

557
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 4: It's the weirder number of the week.

558
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 1: It's funny the way you say bo Nicks. You say

559
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 1: it with this weird aura and tone of disdain and disgust.

560
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: I can't believe bone Knicks is gonna be a three

561
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: point favorite.

562
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 2: It's like it's Will Levis. It's Will Levis with Sean

563
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 2: Payne and as his coach. Honestly, that's what he is

564
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 2: to me. It's just like this guy has so much.

565
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 4: To work on.

566
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,719
Speaker 2: You see that, you see little sparks, right, He's got

567
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 2: good arm, he's got he's a good runner. There are

568
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 2: things there to like, but overall, it's just like he's

569
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 2: not even in the same conversation as you know, Jade

570
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 2: and Daniels or or Williams.

571
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 4: Here.

572
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,239
Speaker 2: It's just like, there's a reason people talk about him

573
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 2: being a second round pick that Sean Payne reached for him.

574
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 2: You're kind of seeing it earlier in the year. But

575
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 2: I don't want to knock him two back because he's

576
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 2: sitting here at two and two, like, that's that's pretty

577
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 2: impressive for the rookie.

578
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 1: What I'm gathering is we don't feel great about this

579
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: game yet. We probably need more interesting if.

580
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 2: This is one of our three though that or one

581
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 2: of our five. I should say on Sunday to people,

582
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 2: I was.

583
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 1: Gonna I was just gonna say exactly what I my

584
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 1: next sentence, like my wife I will be talking and like,

585
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: the next sentence I'm going to say is the answer

586
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: she wants. She never lets me get there.

587
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 4: Your wife, thanks, So it's so the.

588
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: Next sentence was going to be I feel like on

589
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 1: Sunday We're going to have a hard heart to heart

590
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 1: about this game. That's what I think.

591
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 2: It's right on the edge. It's it's number tens right now.

592
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 1: Don't be bullied by this next game, Simon, Arizona, San Francisco.

593
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: Do not be bullied. You said you were getting bullied.

594
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 1: You shouldn't be bullied. The wise guys are seeing, they're

595
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 1: seeing ghosts. Okay. Yeah, the Cardinals were just blown out

596
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 1: teams to lose by twenty eight plus points the previous week,

597
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 1: and our dogs are four more sixty two percent against

598
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 1: the spread the past twenty years. The Niners just one

599
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: big teams to lose by seventeen versus a team who

600
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: won by seventeen the previous week, sixty percent against its

601
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 1: spread the past twenty years. Division dogs fifty six percent

602
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 1: since twenty twenty. Give me the Arizona Cardinals at seven

603
00:30:57,560 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 1: and a half.

604
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 2: All right, we can put him in. It's the most

605
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,479
Speaker 2: public dog of the week, Chad. I don't know if

606
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 2: Fieldc's steping in it.

607
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 1: It's not. It's the cowboys, the cowboys and the public dog.

608
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's fair.

609
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I look at this one, and I

610
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 2: told you my issue is what the pros are seeing

611
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 2: is brock Purty is playing an MVP level, right, and

612
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 2: you know they they're two and two. None of that

613
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 2: is his fault. He's he's I mean, I guess you

614
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 2: could say the Vikings game, he didn't play great, but

615
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 2: overall he's just played amazing this season and all the

616
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 2: numbers back it up, like he easily is a top

617
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 2: three quarterback right now football, and another two might be

618
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 2: Jane Daniels and Sam Darnold, which is just crazy to think,

619
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 2: but that's just why this season's been. He's been playing

620
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 2: at such an elite level despite all the injuries to

621
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 2: this team. The only reason I'm coming around to Arizona

622
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 2: is because of the injuries to this forty nine ers team. Right, Like,

623
00:31:58,040 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: even kidd, I know he's been playing. He's not right,

624
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 2: Debo is not right. You know we already talk about

625
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,719
Speaker 2: they lost Hardgrave up the middle, like that was their

626
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 2: number one run defender. It's just Kyler Man, Kyler Murray Chad,

627
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 2: He's just I'm fucking disgusted with the kid, right, even

628
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 2: going back watching that game, he did look he looks

629
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 2: so disinterested in that game in every way, and the

630
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 2: coaches made zero adjustments with Arizona. So it's like Okay,

631
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 2: they're they're they're weak. They're weaker at the coaching position,

632
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 2: they're weak at the QB position. And that's why this number,

633
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 2: to me makes sense. There's a reason this number is

634
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 2: so high despite all these injuries to this forty nine

635
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 2: ers team. So I'll bet it with you, but personally

636
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 2: I might end up on the seven forty nine ers.

637
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 2: I haven't put a penny on this game yet, but

638
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 2: it's like, if you feel strong about Arizona, I could

639
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 2: probably get there because this is a huge number in

640
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 2: this league. We see a time and time again, these

641
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: big these big numbers cover like these big spreads if

642
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 2: you have a comparable quarterback. If you're not the Patriots,

643
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 2: usually they cover these numbers. Right.

644
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 4: They're able to keep these games close, especially with.

645
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 2: These refs bull in the whistle all the time. So

646
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 2: it's hard for me to stay away from this one chat.

647
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 2: I want to be on Arizona with you. I just

648
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: I don't have the confidence that you have on it

649
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:08,479
Speaker 2: right now.

650
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: Your cat was up all night and it was, you know,

651
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: kicking things, and I feel like you're super tired and

652
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 1: I can bully you into Arizona right now.

653
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 2: The other thing I will say, Jen Heat, I'm trying

654
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 2: to give you all these warnings, all these signs. It's

655
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 2: like turn around that end, no road ahead, the bridge

656
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 2: is out, and you're just like, we can make this jump,

657
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 2: we can make this jump.

658
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: Come on, And then then I'll be like, why didn't

659
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 1: anybody tell me?

660
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 4: Yeah? Exactly.

661
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 1: The other thing I'll say is Trey McBride is going

662
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 1: to play in this game. He hasn't played a big

663
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 1: deal and that that to me, is a huge deal

664
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: for Kyler right as as as athletic as he is,

665
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 1: he has not been able to incorporate Marvin Harrison Junior

666
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 1: in any consistent way beyond the first quarter. And having

667
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 1: Trey McBride as his safety blanket, I do think makes

668
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: a bigger difference. I'm putting it on the list. I

669
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 1: think we're going to have after the show, We're going

670
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 1: to have a longer conversation, try to figure out which

671
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 1: ones are going to be the final five. We'll put

672
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 1: it in the contest. People can see that as soon

673
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 1: as we put in today.

674
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 2: Now, if you're stick your flagging in, this is Chad's

675
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 2: this is when Chad's five, I'm not going to stop

676
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 2: you because like you said, it's a good number.

677
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 4: It's seven and a half. I want to be there.

678
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 2: I'm just the spidy senses are tingling, brother, they're just

679
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 2: tingling on this one.

680
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, but they're also tingling on another game. And I

681
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 1: gave in and and we're going to talk about it

682
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 1: right now. It is our Big Balls bet of the Week,

683
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy

684
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: John has the support, great game, start with great underwear,

685
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 1: and Tommy John makes the great assignment. We are undefeated

686
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 1: with our Big Balls bet of the week, including the

687
00:34:56,440 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 1: Chargers at seven and a half last week with no

688
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 1: offensive tackles, missing their best defensive player, a quarterback on

689
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 1: one leg playing against the greatest quarterback of his generation.

690
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 1: We can run it back with the Cardinals at seven

691
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: and a half. But this week the big Ball's better

692
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: the week Los Angeles Rams plus three hosting Green Bay.

693
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 1: This was your comment to me on Tuesday. I was

694
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 1: all over Green Bay. Your comment to me, don't get cocky.

695
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 2: H don't get cocky, Chad. This is where they get you.

696
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 2: Don't get cocky.

697
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: It was like you said it in a way that

698
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 1: was like so endearing but also made me feel like

699
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 1: our age gap was entirely reversed, Like you're the guy

700
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 1: in his fifties and I'm the guy in my thirties.

701
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 1: And that's how I talk to my younger son when

702
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 1: he thinks he looks extra good before going out, Like,

703
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: don't get too cocky, kid, Like you know, could come

704
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,360
Speaker 1: back to haunt you. That's what it felt like. But

705
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 1: you were right. This line was at three. Three and

706
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 1: a half is now down to three massive pros, Joe's

707
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 1: different tier, tickets on the Packers, money on the Rams,

708
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 1: like all the stats we can get to them back

709
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 1: in the back in the Rams. Wise, guys clearly loved

710
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 1: it in the sharp calls, explain yourself.

711
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that was typical, Like I knew a really

712
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 2: smart group was going to take a really big position

713
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 2: on that RAMS team, And I was just my fear

714
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 2: with you, even if you like the Green Bay. I

715
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 2: was like, Okay, that's fine, you liking them, don't bet

716
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 2: it at a bad number. That three and a half

717
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 2: is gonna be gone. You're gonna be able to get

718
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 2: a three if you really want a Green Bay. It

719
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:45,879
Speaker 2: was kind of my pushback, but yeah, personally I would

720
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 2: not bet Green Bay. This week, I'd stay away people.

721
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,879
Speaker 2: This just feels like a little bit of a trap

722
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 2: from the sports books, and the professionals knew that right away,

723
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 2: so they came in grabbed all the three and a

724
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 2: halfs they could it could get.

725
00:36:59,160 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 4: Back there, right.

726
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 2: A couple of books are now minus one eighteen, minus

727
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 2: one twenty on the three for Green Bay. So you know,

728
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 2: if you want to wait until to try to get

729
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: the Rams a plus three and a half again, you can.

730
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 2: I think the three is what matters here, though. This

731
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,720
Speaker 2: feels like a game that's either gonna be the Rams

732
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 2: win it or they lose by two points. Right like this,

733
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,879
Speaker 2: this just seems like one of those games the professionals

734
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 2: know and the books know they got a little bit

735
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,839
Speaker 2: of a trap here, And you're right when you dive

736
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 2: into numbers and you look at the matchup, this actually

737
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 2: isn't that bad of a matchup for this Rams team,

738
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,360
Speaker 2: especially when you think about you know Williams.

739
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 4: Karen Williams is the running back.

740
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 2: He's probably been a top five back this season and

741
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 2: displayed all the injuries to that offensive line, still one

742
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 2: of the best run blocking schemes. You know. McVeigh just

743
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 2: knows how to coach, up, backup lineman. It's incredible. So

744
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:50,839
Speaker 2: that's a good matchup for this team. I think that's

745
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 2: the way they're going to attack Green Bay and try

746
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 2: to keep Jordan Love off the field. And on the

747
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 2: flip side, yes, you can say Jordan Love gotten a

748
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 2: little bit of rhythmic into that game, but the Vikings

749
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 2: Rawson throwing anything at him right there were just simply

750
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 2: playing a prevent defense when they were up twenty one

751
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 2: points at that point. So I don't think he's right.

752
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 2: I do think he is a little hampered by not

753
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 2: being able to move in the pocket as fluent as

754
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 2: we're used to seeing Jordan Love do. Because he came

755
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 2: back quick from that injury. Right, it was supposed to

756
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 2: be four to six weeks. He came back in the

757
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:24,879
Speaker 2: third week. That's that's a lot. So to me, I'm

758
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 2: glad you listened to it. I don't know if it

759
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 2: was the Luck rankings or our guy Stucky and Chris

760
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:31,879
Speaker 2: talked you out of it, but this I knew you'd

761
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 2: come around, and this was just gonna be a typical

762
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 2: pros Joe's game and the pros we're gonna be all

763
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 2: over this Rams team. So this This might be the

764
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 2: last gasp of the old gunslinger on Stafford with this

765
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 2: Rams team if they don't win this one. I mean

766
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 2: you talked about he's something that's definitely gonna be a

767
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 2: trading moving piece and asset towards this end of this,

768
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 2: before the trade deadline, I should say, so, yeah, we

769
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 2: love the number. If you're like us, you love the

770
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 2: Rams and you somehow didn't heed my warning and you

771
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 2: didn't get to three and a half, I'd wait and

772
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 2: just hope, hope the public keeps coming on this.

773
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 4: When you get it goes back up. So yeah, three.

774
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 2: I don't mind it being our big balls bet because

775
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 2: I do think it's going to land right under it.

776
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 2: But yeah, for the people out there like to wait

777
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 2: and always want the best of the number, you can

778
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 2: just throw a little bit here and just wait and

779
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:20,879
Speaker 2: hope you get the three and a half.

780
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: Simon, Yes, sir, you convinced me of that game all

781
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 1: on your own. As soon as we were done talking

782
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:33,760
Speaker 1: about it on Tuesday, I'm like, all right, it's coffe.

783
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 2: You were coming in hot and confident on Green Bed.

784
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 2: I was like, very hot, toternal, you know what.

785
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,360
Speaker 1: I'm a man of principle. I am a man of principle,

786
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 1: but I don't have to be stubborn about my positions.

787
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 2: There you go.

788
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 1: I can be flexible if someone I think is very

789
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 1: smart comes in with data that is better than mine.

790
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 1: You turned me around, and by the end of our conversation,

791
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 1: I think I had gone I have flipped my position.

792
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 1: I had gone from hardcore packers to hardcore rams one

793
00:39:59,360 --> 00:39:59,919
Speaker 1: hundred percent.

794
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 2: Well, it's nice to see what we were right too,

795
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 2: because if that number would have gone up the four,

796
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 2: I would have had a lot of eggle on my

797
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 2: fucking face. I would have looked like a real jackass

798
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 2: telling people not to hit that. So luckily it did

799
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 2: come down to three, and they know that heavy, heavy,

800
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,239
Speaker 2: professional money came in on that RAM side.

801
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 1: You never look like a jackass, Simon. You are perfect

802
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 1: to me. You know who else is perfect? Our sponsor, Yeah,

803
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,680
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804
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805
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806
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Speaker 1: John T shirt, another pair of Tommy John underwear that

807
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Speaker 1: they sent me. This is the most comfortable underwear, not

808
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809
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Speaker 1: It's changed. It truly has changed our life. And when

810
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 1: you're comfortable, you can feel better. If you love Simon

811
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:49,959
Speaker 1: and I, if you love this show, you love Tommy John,

812
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,640
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813
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814
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Speaker 1: percent at Tommy John slash Favorites. All right, look Dallas

815
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,399
Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's at two and a half. I will

816
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 1: say there are places where you can get Pittsburgh at

817
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 1: one and a half, But you want to talk about

818
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 1: a public side here, Simon, Dallas has all the tickets,

819
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 1: like eighty percent of the tickets right now. This Dallas team,

820
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 1: a bad defense that is thin, is now worse and

821
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 1: thinner without DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. I wonder what

822
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin is gonna say about that.

823
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 4: I just want to see your face. We win the

824
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 4: damn game.

825
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 1: We are living Steelers defense we both believe is good

826
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 1: enough to neutralize Dak and CD Lamb. Brandon Cooks is

827
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 1: also out. This all depends on Arthur Smith trying to

828
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 1: make sure justin field isn't a hero. Just run the ball,

829
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 1: be very conservative, win the game.

830
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 4: Straight up, win this game. B win this game.

831
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 2: The biggest thing we talked about this is just a

832
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 2: mismatchup team strengths for other teams weaknesses, right, and the

833
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 2: biggest weakness again, we talk at Naisma about it. Why

834
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 2: we didn't like Dallas coming to the season. They had

835
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 2: one of the worst running back rooms in football. Now

836
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 2: we didn't know that they would also defensively one of

837
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:19,240
Speaker 2: the worst teams against the run of football.

838
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:20,319
Speaker 4: They are.

839
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,239
Speaker 2: I mean, they are terrible against the run and now

840
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:25,880
Speaker 2: you know two of their best defenders. I know they

841
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 2: haven't played like it this year, but they are.

842
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 4: You just said it.

843
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 2: Dextra Lawrence is out, Michael Parsons is gonna be out

844
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 2: for this game. Like, it just keeps adding up more

845
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 2: reasons to fade this team than the flip side. You know,

846
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,919
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh does have some injuries to their running back room,

847
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,240
Speaker 2: but you know, justin Field is running that read option

848
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 2: with Cordell Patterson. I think it's going to be just

849
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 2: as effective against this terrible run defense. Like, even if

850
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 2: they prepare for it, Arthur Smith always has another piece

851
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 2: to move the counter whatever teams have done against him,

852
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:56,919
Speaker 2: like he's been to me incredible this this year.

853
00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 4: What he's done with Justin Fields, Like.

854
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:01,840
Speaker 2: You said it, our fear of Justin Fields is the

855
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 2: dumb turnovers, and he's kind of beating that out of him, right.

856
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 2: I know, obviously it popped up last week with him,

857
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 2: but that was like we said, he was gonna be

858
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 2: down by multiple points. He needed a force play trying

859
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 2: to overdo it. That's not where you want Justin Field.

860
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 2: You want him to be in rhythm, to stick to

861
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:19,839
Speaker 2: the playbook, to be on script every now and then.

862
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 2: When he does go off script, it's not with his arm.

863
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 2: Hopefully it's gonna be with his either. It could be

864
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 2: with his arm and going deep, we don't mind that.

865
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 2: But it's really his running ability and that's something that

866
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 2: they can really tap into here against this banged up

867
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 2: Dallas team. So that matchup is a phenomenal defensively, I mean,

868
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 2: it doesn't get any better for.

869
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:38,319
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh, right.

870
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 2: They have a rookie tackle going against TJ.

871
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 3: Watt.

872
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 4: This is terrible.

873
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 2: So and again we think they're gonna get down and

874
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 2: they'll be forced to pass heavily because they can out

875
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 2: run the ball against this Pittsburgh team. Pittsburgh gonna have

876
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 2: them right where they want. They want to make teams

877
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 2: pass against him. That's their biggest strengths. So the fact

878
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:57,959
Speaker 2: that you can get this at one and a half, Chad,

879
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 2: how do you not take that number? So I'm not shocked.

880
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 2: This is the public side, right people think after that

881
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh team gets embarrassed, they lose, they see, you know,

882
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 2: Dallas is on extended rest. They look like they kind

883
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 2: of got back to their old ways against Giants, where

884
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 2: it's like, why I watch that Giants game. I saw

885
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 2: two really bad teams fighting it out right. I don't

886
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 2: know if you felt the same way. It's like, that's

887
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 2: what's so crazy about this Washington thing. Washington looks so

888
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 2: much more complete of a team right now than the

889
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 2: Eagles and the Cowboys. It's just I don't really see

890
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 2: what people are betting here with the Cowboys to have

891
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 2: confidence and taking them as a dog, other than you know,

892
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,360
Speaker 2: maybe they feel good that it's Dack against Justin Fields

893
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 2: they're getting a plus two and a half number, But

894
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 2: that's just so basic, such a basic way to think

895
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 2: about this matchup here. So yeah, this I was gonna

896
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:43,800
Speaker 2: not force you to make this one of our fives.

897
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 2: It's like, this is the favorite I really like. As

898
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:50,320
Speaker 2: much as you know, I'm okay with betting Washington and

899
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 2: minus three. I have zero confidence in the way I

900
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:55,880
Speaker 2: do about this Pittsburgh favorite. So I really love this

901
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 2: number to be our favorite in our contest.

902
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually I've come around to it. I I

903
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 1: didn't feel strongly about Dallas, like we talked about it

904
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:09,239
Speaker 1: on Sunday night and you immediately pushed back. Not in

905
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:13,640
Speaker 1: a strong way, but you at least matchup wise, felt

906
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 1: like Steelers had an opportunity to win this game. And

907
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 1: now without Parsons and Lawrence, everything is exacerbated, like the

908
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: matchups are even more in the Steelers favor and the

909
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 1: way you would expect the game to play out. So yeah,

910
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 1: I love the Steelers here, have no problem with it.

911
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,200
Speaker 1: Like playing Mike. I don't like playing Mike Tomlin as

912
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:39,320
Speaker 1: a home favorite, but I do like I do like

913
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 1: playing Mike Tomlin off a loss where he can rally

914
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 1: this team a little bit.

915
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 2: Get him ready to take the fail every series.

916
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 1: So it feels like a good spot. And I do

917
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 1: think Mike Tomlin is just better than Mike McCarthy. So

918
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 1: I got no problem with the Steelers in this one.

919
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,360
Speaker 1: I think you and I are one hundred percent aligned.

920
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:05,720
Speaker 4: All right, So those are those are four. We're probably

921
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:06,360
Speaker 4: going to have inn.

922
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 2: Well, who's number five?

923
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:10,839
Speaker 1: I don't know if we have four? I got, Well,

924
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 1: we'll talk about that. New Orleans and Kansas City. I'm

925
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:17,760
Speaker 1: surprised this is split. Yeah, this was my exact decision.

926
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 1: We got to get in the foxhole. By the way,

927
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 1: we're kind of not in a foxhole yet.

928
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 2: When dow Pittsburgh for a foxhole you just said, it's

929
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:28,240
Speaker 2: the most public side of the week in the alf.

930
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 1: Right, let's do the Steelers. Steelers were in the foxhole.

931
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 4: Love it.

932
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 1: Let's clid down into the foxhole. Beautiful. I was all

933
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 1: over New Orleans from the beginning. I betted at five

934
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 1: and a half. It got down, it got down to five.

935
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 1: I think it actually got down even lower, maybe even

936
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 1: to four and a half. Then it got that back up.

937
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 1: Now I'm a little worried, not because of the wise

938
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 1: guy stuff. It's a very very public dog, very public

939
00:46:59,400 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 1: the Saints.

940
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I didn't know that. I think. I mean,

941
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 2: it does make sense though, Like I just who has

942
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:10,320
Speaker 2: confidence in betting the Chiefs offense, where at least we

943
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 2: know exactly the identity of the Saints offense, right, And Okay,

944
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 2: they struggled against the Eagles, and you know, maybe people

945
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 2: are viewing them as a team that's just going to

946
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 2: be better indoors than they will be outdoors. And it's

947
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:24,919
Speaker 2: the type of game where you know, the Chiefs wet

948
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:27,600
Speaker 2: the field before the game, they do everything they can

949
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:31,279
Speaker 2: to make the grass longer. It's a late Monday night game.

950
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 2: I get all that, And I wanted to easily say

951
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 2: the Saints team is going to be the spot Like

952
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 2: it's just the number feel is way too big for

953
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 2: a Chiefs offense that just lost the only real piece

954
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 2: to the offense that made any type of sense, right,

955
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 2: Rice was everything for them, Like, I think there are

956
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 2: big plays outside of Worthy. Obviously it was always going

957
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:53,360
Speaker 2: to Rice on third down. That's always who Mahomes is

958
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 2: going to. It's like, okay, they lost him in Pacheco.

959
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 2: The identity of that offense has been gone. I mean,

960
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 2: it's not Travis Kelsey. This guy has not looked the

961
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 2: same all season. And Worthy is just so inconsistent, right,

962
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 2: He's one or two touches a game, and if they

963
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 2: don't work out, he's kind of.

964
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:10,919
Speaker 4: Held in check.

965
00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 2: So I don't really I'm trying to figure out what

966
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 2: the professionals are seeing here that that's given them such

967
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 2: confidence in this Chiefs team. And maybe it is just

968
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 2: simple as fading Dennis Allen and Derek Carr in this

969
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:22,879
Speaker 2: spot in this primetime game.

970
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 4: Like, I get it.

971
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 2: The Chiefs have a massive coaching advantage between Spags and

972
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:29,320
Speaker 2: Andy Reid, like they're gonna be able to get Theirs,

973
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 2: They'll be able to figure this out. But man, mahomes

974
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:35,799
Speaker 2: playing terrible all of it. Chat, I just I can't

975
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 2: believe the pros. Like when I hear pros are on

976
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:40,120
Speaker 2: the other side, I'm just like, what are you guys

977
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 2: seeing here? And like the all the reasoning, I get it,

978
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 2: but I just I just at my core, I just

979
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 2: cannot comprehend not taking the Saints here, especially a couple

980
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:49,280
Speaker 2: of books hit plus six.

981
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 4: On this Saints team. I grabbed it right away.

982
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 2: It's just like, man, I can't believe all this love

983
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 2: for the Chief's team, and you know you saying this

984
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 2: is a huge public dog a little scary, but at

985
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 2: the same time, we're on the public side with Arizona

986
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 2: here as well, So it's like, you know, I think

987
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 2: the public has come around to these big dogs are covering.

988
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 2: Like usually maybe they wouldn't be on this side and

989
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 2: they would be on the favorite side, but the public dogs,

990
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 2: these big dogs have been covering. So that's the only

991
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 2: rational I can really think of, Chad. So, you know,

992
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 2: I don't love if this may be this will be

993
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:24,719
Speaker 2: our fifth one, and I don't love having to wait

994
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:27,400
Speaker 2: to Monday night to try to go four to one

995
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:30,839
Speaker 2: or five and whatever it is. But it's a tough week,

996
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 2: Like this is a good number. We kind of like

997
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:34,879
Speaker 2: might be backed into the corner and have to take

998
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 2: this number, especially if it's up to six and a

999
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 2: half in the contest.

1000
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 1: I think we're going to have to, and I think

1001
00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 1: I have one more number to put us over the

1002
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 1: top here. Yeah, you know how much I love the

1003
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 1: Luck rankings, and I know you like the Luck rankings too.

1004
00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:54,799
Speaker 1: We don't bet them blindly, but they did go undefeated

1005
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:56,760
Speaker 1: last week the Luck rankings.

1006
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:58,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think clearly ten and one on the season

1007
00:49:59,040 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 2: or something crazy.

1008
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 1: It's crazy about really, So there is one side this

1009
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 1: week that fits into the Luck Rankings criteria, it is

1010
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints, and it is a massive luck difference.

1011
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:23,719
Speaker 1: There is a difference of twenty eight spots between how

1012
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:27,560
Speaker 1: lucky the Chiefs have been how we got to bet then, Yeah,

1013
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 1: unlucky teams with a luck difference of twenty eight or

1014
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:37,040
Speaker 1: more since we started doing the luck rankings twenty three,

1015
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 1: twelve and one sixty five percent against the spread if

1016
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 1: those teams are on the road, the unlucky team seventy

1017
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 1: eight percent against the spread. That's New Orleans.

1018
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1019
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 2: The only thing that pissed me off when you told

1020
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:54,840
Speaker 2: me they're a big public dog. I'm shocked by that

1021
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 2: because when I was talking to bookmakers, it was all

1022
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 2: Chiefs money, especially with all the teasers and everything like that.

1023
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 4: But no, that's that's music to my ears. We're definitely

1024
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:02,920
Speaker 4: going to have them in there.

1025
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 1: So we'll sort of regroup when we get to the

1026
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 1: end of the show and see if we can narrow

1027
00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 1: it down with the ones we want to put in. Yeah,

1028
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:13,720
Speaker 1: but I think we got a couple that we definitely

1029
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:21,799
Speaker 1: feel like we're strongly leaning towards turning good weekends into

1030
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:27,440
Speaker 1: great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay. It

1031
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 1: is time for our boosted Underdog money line parlay. Each

1032
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 1: week we give out a two team money line underdog

1033
00:51:35,520 --> 00:51:38,800
Speaker 1: parlay and Bet three sixty five, our very gracious sponsor

1034
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 1: boosts the odds and highlights it on their site all

1035
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:47,719
Speaker 1: weekend under both game pages on the bet three six

1036
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 1: five site and app. We hit last week's boosted parlay

1037
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 1: that was Indianapolis and Tampa Bay.

1038
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:56,879
Speaker 2: Paid on the first half because they were both up their.

1039
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:58,760
Speaker 1: First half because they both got up by seventeen.

1040
00:51:58,880 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1041
00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 1: Bet three six five has that no sweat bet. We're

1042
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 1: like your team that you bet on in the money

1043
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 1: line gets up by seventeen, you win automatically, doesn't matter

1044
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 1: what happens the rest of the game. Your Week five

1045
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 1: boosted Underdog parlay Rams and Texans find the boost under

1046
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:19,759
Speaker 1: the Rams or Texans game page on bet three six five.

1047
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 1: Remember both games are eligible for the early payout promo,

1048
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 1: where your money line pick gets marked as a win

1049
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 1: if they take a seventeen point lead, even if they lose.

1050
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 1: So you want to bet this betted at bet three

1051
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 1: six five. Right, who do you want in the round robin?

1052
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 1: There will come up payday Halla lu Yo wanna pay day.

1053
00:52:43,719 --> 00:52:44,760
Speaker 4: There will come.

1054
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 5: Up payday some day. Some day there, I will come

1055
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:49,239
Speaker 5: up pay day.

1056
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:51,279
Speaker 1: Halla, lou Yo, wanna pay day?

1057
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 2: I will come up pay day some day. Okay?

1058
00:52:57,320 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 1: I mean Houston and the Rams obviously like them.

1059
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 2: You want to throw the Panthers in there against the Bears.

1060
00:53:04,640 --> 00:53:04,840
Speaker 3: I do.

1061
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:06,879
Speaker 1: I like the number. I like it at how it'll

1062
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 1: boost the odds a little bit.

1063
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 2: How do we not go Vegas against the rook Well,

1064
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:16,720
Speaker 2: I was thinking Cincy, Yeah, love Cincy.

1065
00:53:17,600 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 1: To me, it's Houston Rams, Panthers, Bengals, and then it's

1066
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 1: either Raiders or Saints.

1067
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 2: Obviously I like the Saints because plus two hundred. But

1068
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:34,280
Speaker 2: once again, I'd rather just get it all and knocked

1069
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:35,439
Speaker 2: out before a Sunday show.

1070
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:37,359
Speaker 4: So let's go Raiders, all right?

1071
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 1: The money line underdog round Robin last week, I think

1072
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:47,800
Speaker 1: we won three of the games. Houston Rams, Panthers, Cincy Raiders. Simon,

1073
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:51,160
Speaker 1: right now, tell me your biggest bets.

1074
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 2: Biggest bet for sure was the Rams three and a

1075
00:53:55,480 --> 00:54:00,960
Speaker 2: half Bengals plus three. You know I'm gonna get there

1076
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:02,800
Speaker 2: on Houston. I'd just been waiting for that number to

1077
00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: keep going up, So I'm slightly invested right now in

1078
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 2: the plus one and a half, not heavy, and then

1079
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:10,800
Speaker 2: obviously Pittsburgh and the Saints.

1080
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 4: I've just been betting all week.

1081
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 2: So once again, if that Saints number gets up to six,

1082
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:18,360
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be very tempted to make that one of

1083
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:19,399
Speaker 2: my bigger bets of the week.

1084
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:21,239
Speaker 4: But it's it's a game. I can be patient because

1085
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 4: it is the Monday night game.

1086
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 2: The hope is if the public does well, you know,

1087
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 2: all their teasers, everything will be tied to that chief's

1088
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:31,839
Speaker 2: number on the Monday Night. That's just how people bet

1089
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 2: their parlays. And I'll either get a six or six

1090
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:37,400
Speaker 2: and a half on that Saints number. So that's one

1091
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 2: you can be patient with Pittsburgh. I've been grabbing anywhere

1092
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 2: any book that has the one and a half. I've

1093
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 2: been grabbing it when I can.

1094
00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually bet it while we were talking. All right,

1095
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 1: let's get to the last word with our good friend

1096
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:55,240
Speaker 1: Evan Abram's, senior director of research here at Action Network.

1097
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 1: Can you please tell us some things that will justify

1098
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 1: any decisions we've made today?

1099
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:05,760
Speaker 2: The last word with Van Abrams, we're finished talking.

1100
00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:07,840
Speaker 5: I need to pull back the curtain a tiny bit

1101
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:10,319
Speaker 5: as well. So when we're setting up this segment, I'm

1102
00:55:10,400 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 5: usually speaking with producer Matt Mitchell, trying to figure out

1103
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:15,320
Speaker 5: the games, the notes, trying to, you know, marry some

1104
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:17,680
Speaker 5: stuff with your picks. We have a bunch of Arizona

1105
00:55:17,719 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 5: and San Francisco stuff. I mostly have to just throw

1106
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:21,520
Speaker 5: that out the window because I have no idea which

1107
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:23,799
Speaker 5: side we really like this. Since we're all over the place,

1108
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 5: I'll just give you one piece of this.

1109
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,719
Speaker 1: And say we like Arizona. We'll be happy with your

1110
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:29,279
Speaker 1: stats if you're like Arizona.

1111
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 5: It was funny because Matt did want me to set

1112
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:34,839
Speaker 5: up something here that's anti Arizona, so I'm just gonna

1113
00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:36,520
Speaker 5: get it out of the way since we assumed you

1114
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:39,080
Speaker 5: were pro San Francisco. It's just a good note, so

1115
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 5: let me throw it out there. A schedule note just

1116
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 5: in this spot, Arizona's played three straight at home. They

1117
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 5: now hit the road for the first time. I was

1118
00:55:46,080 --> 00:55:48,879
Speaker 5: kind of surprised by this, but those teams forty five

1119
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:52,960
Speaker 5: percent ATS two hundred game sample and fifteen thirty two

1120
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:55,360
Speaker 5: and one ATS thirty two percent last five years, so

1121
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 5: recently it's been absolutely terrible. I would have kind of assumed,

1122
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,120
Speaker 5: you know, players at home and families all that stuff.

1123
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:02,480
Speaker 5: Then you hit the road you kind of play well

1124
00:56:02,719 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 5: complete opposite. So I found that kind of interesting. But

1125
00:56:05,640 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 5: let's get into the real picks here, the real information,

1126
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:09,840
Speaker 5: and that is Cincinnati.

1127
00:56:10,400 --> 00:56:11,319
Speaker 4: This is probably.

1128
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:13,480
Speaker 5: Pretty much the game of the week. And when you

1129
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:15,840
Speaker 5: look at the AFC North, it really doesn't matter the

1130
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 5: team underdogs in the AFC North divisional games, cash Cow

1131
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,120
Speaker 5: forty five and twenty nine ats, sixty one percent since

1132
00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 5: twenty eighteen, best of any division. And this is really

1133
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:28,160
Speaker 5: the note. They are five hundred or better in seven

1134
00:56:28,239 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 5: straight seasons twenty three and fourteen since twenty twenty one,

1135
00:56:31,239 --> 00:56:34,319
Speaker 5: so really competitive almost all the time. And you take

1136
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 5: the dog in these spots. Now you mentioned it earlier,

1137
00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:40,560
Speaker 5: Lamar three points are less of a favorite underdog now

1138
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 5: in the regular season, that's actually twenty four and five ats.

1139
00:56:43,719 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 5: I know, absolutely absurd, but I think it's really important

1140
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 5: to see the other side of this. So Burrow as

1141
00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 5: a dog of two plus eighteen and eight ats, and

1142
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:54,439
Speaker 5: he's twenty two and four in a six point t's

1143
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:57,239
Speaker 5: in that spot, so almost always close games when he's

1144
00:56:57,280 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 5: a dog of over two points eighteen and four ats,

1145
00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:02,280
Speaker 5: and this is one I thought was kind of important.

1146
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:05,600
Speaker 5: So Ravens are off this very emotional Sunday night football

1147
00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:08,880
Speaker 5: bulldoze of Josh Allen. You would think all maybe letdown

1148
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:11,960
Speaker 5: spot teams after facing Buffalo. Since Allen's first season as

1149
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 5: a full time starter in twenty nineteen, thirty three and

1150
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:18,480
Speaker 5: fifty three straight up thirty eight percent. Second worst on

1151
00:57:18,520 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 5: the money line in all of football. The worst is

1152
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 5: San Francisco after playing San Francisco after banging Buffalo people

1153
00:57:24,440 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 5: not playing well, not really shocking, and I'll give you

1154
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:29,920
Speaker 5: one more here. We seem to be kind of all

1155
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:33,720
Speaker 5: over the Saints. So here's some interesting notes to kind

1156
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:36,280
Speaker 5: of look into. So Carr has struggled in his career

1157
00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 5: facing softer defenses, which kind of makes sense more points

1158
00:57:40,120 --> 00:57:42,600
Speaker 5: against defenses allowing twenty one points per game or more.

1159
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 5: He's actually thirty seven percent in almost one hundred games,

1160
00:57:46,480 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 5: dead last of every quarterback in our database last twenty years. Luckily,

1161
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:53,640
Speaker 5: the Chiefs defense is actually isn't soft, right. They allow

1162
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 5: eighteen points per game this year versus teams allowing fewer

1163
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 5: than twenty one points per game. He is thirty five

1164
00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 5: and twenty one against the spread. Fifth best here are

1165
00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:06,680
Speaker 5: the quarterbacks. He's behind Brady Breeze, Rogers and Peyton Manning.

1166
00:58:06,920 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 5: So not a terrible list. And this, to me was

1167
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 5: just unbelievable. So one final nugget on Casey. They've won

1168
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 5: all four games this year by seven points or less.

1169
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 5: Teams who have won by a touchdown or lesson four

1170
00:58:19,720 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 5: straight just sixteen and twenty seven ats in their next

1171
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 5: game thirty seven percent, and that drops another five percent

1172
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:27,360
Speaker 5: lower one favored by a field goal or Moore. So

1173
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:30,560
Speaker 5: it's the spot. It's scary taking them out of the

1174
00:58:30,600 --> 00:58:32,479
Speaker 5: dome and bring them on the wet grass, as Simon

1175
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 5: alluded to, which is a great note.

1176
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:36,800
Speaker 1: But got to take the points. You know what, I've

1177
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 1: never felt better, Simon. Thank you, Evan, you did a

1178
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 1: great job. I think giving us a little bit of

1179
00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 1: a handrail on the roller coaster there to help so

1180
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:51,960
Speaker 1: we can try to make some better decisions, Simon, is

1181
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:57,880
Speaker 1: what I would say right now. Steelers yep. Saints got

1182
00:58:58,480 --> 00:59:05,320
Speaker 1: gotta gotta since love it, Houston yep. And then I

1183
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:09,960
Speaker 1: think it comes down to Arizona, the Rams or the Panthers.

1184
00:59:10,760 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 1: I know I feel strong about it.

1185
00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:15,080
Speaker 4: I put Rams above Houston.

1186
00:59:16,160 --> 00:59:23,120
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, So so then it comes down to Houston, Arizona.

1187
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:23,680
Speaker 2: Houston Arizona.

1188
00:59:24,800 --> 00:59:27,520
Speaker 1: If we want to make for really good content, yeah,

1189
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 1: we go with Arizona.

1190
00:59:29,600 --> 00:59:32,280
Speaker 2: I agree because I just I'm not there and you're

1191
00:59:32,320 --> 00:59:34,520
Speaker 2: you're all in, which I totally get.

1192
00:59:34,800 --> 00:59:37,120
Speaker 1: All right, well, I'm excited to put those in after

1193
00:59:37,160 --> 00:59:37,520
Speaker 1: the show.

1194
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:38,520
Speaker 2: Is that? So?

1195
00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 4: Is that where you're gonna do.

1196
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 2: You're gonna go with Arizona over Houston.

1197
00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:46,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm gonna go. Uh yeah, I'm gonna go

1198
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:51,680
Speaker 1: Sincy Arizona rams Pittsburgh, New Orleans?

1199
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:52,000
Speaker 3: Right?

1200
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:52,800
Speaker 4: Love?

1201
00:59:52,880 --> 00:59:53,960
Speaker 3: It is that?

1202
00:59:54,200 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 2: Is that?

1203
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:59,000
Speaker 1: Five? Sincey Arizona rams Pittsburgh, Ne Orleans. Yep, Yep, there

1204
00:59:59,080 --> 01:00:03,280
Speaker 1: we go, brother, Another exciting week in the Favorites Podcast.

1205
01:00:03,880 --> 01:00:06,600
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet

1206
01:00:06,640 --> 01:00:08,960
Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.

1207
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:11,600
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1208
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Speaker 1: bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit

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Speaker 1: ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to get

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1211
01:00:21,800 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 1: be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.

1212
01:00:26,160 --> 01:00:29,240
Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five.

1213
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1214
01:00:34,880 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia where eighteen and

1215
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:42,920
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky gambit problem gambling problem called one eight

1216
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:45,920
Speaker 1: hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms.

1217
01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 1: Conditioned restrictions apply. Simon and I We'll return with our

1218
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:53,360
Speaker 1: next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube

1219
01:00:53,360 --> 01:00:57,240
Speaker 1: page on Sunday night, seven thirty Eastern. To recap NFL

1220
01:00:57,400 --> 01:01:00,760
Speaker 1: Week five, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you

1221
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:03,920
Speaker 1: get your pods, Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars,

1222
01:01:04,120 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 1: save it, or whatever you want. Feedback is a gift

1223
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:16,360
Speaker 1: until next time, Love you. Action Network reminds you please

1224
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

1225
01:01:19,880 --> 01:01:22,960
Speaker 1: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

1226
01:01:23,160 --> 01:01:24,560
Speaker 1: at one eight hundred gambler