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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast Podall all right,

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Speaker 1: here we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 1: forty forty five fifty and the kick is Black. The

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Speaker 1: College Football World.

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Speaker 2: Stunners, Oh my goodness, please stumble and football the latter.

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Speaker 1: Of turn a tyre.

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Speaker 2: On the episode gu be lad.

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Speaker 1: A table off the fail the Night by God, it's

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Speaker 1: not the size of the dog in the fight. It's

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Speaker 1: the size of the fight in the doll.

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Speaker 2: What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast presented by DraftKings. This is the College Football

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Speaker 2: Week eight bet in preview. I'm stuck in joining me

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Speaker 2: as always my fellow BBOC co host Colin Wilson. Before

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Speaker 2: we get started here. If you do use Twitter, make

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Speaker 2: sure you use at Playbook, the new betting box from

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Speaker 2: Action You turn your screenshots into a betslip. Just follow

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Speaker 2: out Playbook on Twitter for more info. Really convenient, I

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Speaker 2: use it all the time. We'll also have a quick

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Speaker 2: slip link in the video and podcast description where you

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Speaker 2: can find and tael some of the bets we discuss

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Speaker 2: in today's episode, or you can visit actionnetwork dot com

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Speaker 2: slash bet now also a little selfish PSA. I'm the

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Speaker 2: new cost of the Favorites podcast, which is returned with

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Speaker 2: a new lineup episodes Tuesday, Thursday, Sundays with myself, Kendri

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Speaker 2: Middleton and Brandon Kravitz. Bet stories, all sorts of fun

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Speaker 2: stuff centered around the NFL. Check it out wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and before we really get started, I'll

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Speaker 2: throw it to myself for a quick word from our sponsor,

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Speaker 2: NBA League Pass, the crown is yours all right. Con

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Speaker 2: another weekend of college football yep is already upon us.

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Speaker 2: You've had some I can't wait for a weekday maction.

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Speaker 2: I can't. I can only take so much weekday cusa.

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Speaker 1: But you're not enjoying this, Like I'm just splitting units

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Speaker 1: with this QUSA action, you know, Like I mean, I've

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Speaker 1: just I've had a really good season. But this qs's

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Speaker 1: crap is just.

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Speaker 2: God invented weekday cusa to make us appreciate weekday maction more.

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Speaker 2: That's what I'm telling myself. But we have a lot

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Speaker 2: of great games on the board. We will get to

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Speaker 2: some a lot of trash. We will get to some injuries,

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Speaker 2: got Arkansas football. We'll talk our We'll talk some Friday

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Speaker 2: Night lights, our favorite favorites, favorite undrugs. You guys know

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Speaker 2: the drill by this point in time. By the way,

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Speaker 2: if you can't take a second, leave a five star review.

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Speaker 2: If we've won you any money this year, would be

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Speaker 2: greatly appreciated. But let's get right into it. It's another

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Speaker 2: fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 1: Let's check out the marquee matchups.

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Speaker 2: We'll all end up bedding for Week eight. Our first

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Speaker 2: of I think we're going to do five marquee games

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Speaker 2: this weekend. We'll start with Vanderbilt favored over LSU. It's

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Speaker 2: been a while. They're two and a half point favorites

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Speaker 2: at home against LSU. So when when I look at

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Speaker 2: this game, I like Vandy in this game. I you know,

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Speaker 2: I don't show like from a numbers perspective. I don't

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Speaker 2: show it to the value in it. But just how

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Speaker 2: I see this playing out there there are a ton

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Speaker 2: like how I see this playing out is Number one,

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Speaker 2: LSU's offense. They still can't run the ball. The offensive

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Speaker 2: line still isn't great. They're basically asking nous Smyer to

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Speaker 2: drop back and throw it a million times a game.

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Speaker 2: That's leading to turnovers, that's leading to you know, inefficiency

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Speaker 2: on third downs, too many three and outs. So what

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Speaker 2: is that? And Vandy's pass defense is not great. They're

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Speaker 2: run defenses are strength, which is neutralized a bit here

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Speaker 2: because LSU can't really run it. But how do I

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Speaker 2: think this game plays out? Is that LSU, look they're

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Speaker 2: going to move the ball some through the air. You

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Speaker 2: have trade as Green looked great last weekend. Parker's emerging,

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Speaker 2: Aaron Anderson is going to play, So it looks like

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Speaker 2: LSU's gonna have their full complement of weapons. But I

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Speaker 2: think Vanderbilt is gonna get some stops and then when

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Speaker 2: they have the ball, I think that they're going to

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Speaker 2: be able to control the clock, especially if LSU is

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Speaker 2: not at full strength on defense, and they might not be.

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Speaker 2: They might be without three key defensive linemen. Right Relefords

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Speaker 2: already out. It looks like they're gonna be without let

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Speaker 2: me pull up the injury report. In addition to their

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Speaker 2: defensive line with Weeks might be out. I mean he

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Speaker 2: was arguably their best defender. So the depth is really

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Speaker 2: going to be tested on that side of the ball

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Speaker 2: for LSU. They're also a very I think good Goodin

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Speaker 2: is out. I think he's doubtful. So like this, this

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Speaker 2: defensive line, and this is the strength of the team,

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Speaker 2: the defense, but it's a very aggressive defense. Vanderbilt coming

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Speaker 2: off the buy, they use that against teams. So I

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Speaker 2: think eventually time of possession is just going to be

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Speaker 2: massively swung in Vandy's favor. This LSU defense is going

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Speaker 2: to wear down. There's gonna be too many three and outs,

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Speaker 2: missed opportunities on third downs, So disparity and third downs

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Speaker 2: between these two offense is massive. I think that's going

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Speaker 2: to be the difference.

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Speaker 1: What say you, I make this game LSU is the

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Speaker 1: smallest favorite possible, like one point and I think with

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Speaker 1: the injuries that kind of swings it the other way.

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Speaker 1: I have kind of been waiting for the three. I

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Speaker 1: think a three popped up at a really small chop

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Speaker 1: and it just wasn't worth me putting it in. I

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Speaker 1: think they've got me limited to like one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty five bucks, so it wasn't worth putting in the app.

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Speaker 1: No one else could get it. I don't see LSU,

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Speaker 1: like you said, LSU, can they stop the Vandy rushing

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Speaker 1: attack of Diego Pavi and Cedric Alexander. Vandy runs everything

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Speaker 1: in the book Man inside Zone, pulling Lineman counterpower. They

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Speaker 1: run everything. LSU's forty four percent against inside zone and

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Speaker 1: kind of worse against Man concepts and other things and

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Speaker 1: counter and power. So I just don't see the defensive

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Speaker 1: line stopping what Bandy wants to do. So it means

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Speaker 1: a ton of clock being eaten. This is an eleven

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Speaker 1: AM game from a central timestone perspective. I do like

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Speaker 1: the first half under in this just for that reason,

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Speaker 1: because Vandy wants to go super slow. Can LSU have

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Speaker 1: any six with the offense. Well, they're not gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to rush the ball. They're gonna have to throw

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Speaker 1: the ball and that's the only way you're gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to move it. On Vanderbilt, the commodores are one

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Speaker 1: hundred and eight and defensive passing success right and one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twelve an EPA allowed. But is not going

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Speaker 1: to be able to take care of that. I will

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Speaker 1: say his best coverage look that he's had the most

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Speaker 1: success against is Cover three, which is which Clark Lee

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Speaker 1: runs in the back of that nickel defense that he's

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Speaker 1: called everywhere that he's been.

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Speaker 2: Not a familiarity too, I mean leaves to be under

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Speaker 2: a Kelly.

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Speaker 1: I just is not going to be that good in

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Speaker 1: this in this matchup is and his numbers aren't stellar

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Speaker 1: against Cover three. It's just his best success rate out

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Speaker 1: of all of the coverages that he sees. So I see

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Speaker 1: slow prodding first half under and I would scoop a

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Speaker 1: three of it shows and it wouldn't be for a

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Speaker 1: lot of money.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to be on vandied somehow pre game. Uh,

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Speaker 2: I don't mind that first half underlook for sure. Staying

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Speaker 2: in the SEC, we have Ole mess at Georgia. Georgia

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Speaker 2: seven and a half point favorite here total fifty three

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Speaker 2: and a half. Georgia with revenge on its mind from

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Speaker 2: a law last year two Ole Miss twenty eight to ten.

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Speaker 2: It was pretty dominant effort by Ole Miss. Ole Miss

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Speaker 2: comes into this game six and zero Georgia five and one. Look,

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Speaker 2: I've been on the record of saying that this Georgia

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Speaker 2: team is nowhere close to elite. I mean, like the

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Speaker 2: difference in these SEC teams this year, Like I think

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Speaker 2: Texas A and M is the best SEC team, BAMA

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Speaker 2: close behind, but like the difference between the Tier one

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Speaker 2: and the Tier two, like throw in Tennessee, Missouri, Auburn, LSU, Vanderbilt,

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Speaker 2: like Texas Oklahoma, could go on. There's like not much

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Speaker 2: of a.

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Speaker 1: Gap between BAM and Missouri, right, just three points?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean yeah that close three I mean obviously

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Speaker 2: at Missouri, but there's there's just not that big of

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Speaker 2: a gap, and there's gonna be more casts in the SEC. Now,

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Speaker 2: do I believe in this old miss team. No. Look,

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Speaker 2: they've had the easiest strength of schedule so far among

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Speaker 2: all SEC teams. Stay easily could have lost to Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: They I think they should have lost to Arkansas. So

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Speaker 2: at the offensive line is not great, the defense is

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Speaker 2: nowhere close to where it was last year. This Georgia team,

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Speaker 2: the secondary is and is good. They're not getting elite pressure.

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna be able to run the ball

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Speaker 2: that will here against ole Miss. And I do think

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Speaker 2: that ole Miss I mean which is Lane Kivick came

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Speaker 2: out and basically said they were preparing for the Georgia

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Speaker 2: game during the Wazoo game. The week of the Wazoo game,

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Speaker 2: they almost lost his thirty three point favorites. They were

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Speaker 2: twenty four to twenty one. And Georgia has come out

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Speaker 2: very slow in a lot of games over the past years,

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Speaker 2: including this year, and then what happens. Kirby is still

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Speaker 2: the best in game adjuster in the sport. So I

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Speaker 2: can't get to Lang seven and a half with Georgia.

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Speaker 2: Something else of note here Trinidad Chambliss D two transfer.

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Speaker 2: He's played pretty well. He's look I think he's mainly

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Speaker 2: your one read quarterback and there's gonna be most likely

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Speaker 2: some mistakes here communication wise on the in his first

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Speaker 2: road SEC start. That's gonna be more difficult with Lane

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Speaker 2: and him and that entire operation.

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Speaker 1: Rowen Shade on Trinidad here.

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Speaker 2: I think that could lead to some mistakes. So if

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Speaker 2: Ole Miss comes out, they're gonna have some Lane will

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Speaker 2: probably have some wrinkles. Kirby will adjust if I can

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Speaker 2: get Georgia live at a better price than what they're

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Speaker 2: at right now, That's how I'll look with the dogs.

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Speaker 2: What are you seeing here, Ole Miss Georgia.

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Speaker 1: I've got to have an explanation for our listeners. The

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Speaker 1: play in this game is Georgia Team total over thirty

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Speaker 1: one and a half. Wrote it up for action, but

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Speaker 1: everybody that follows on the app saw me put in

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Speaker 1: an old misbet plus seven that I did on Sunday

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Speaker 1: for a nickel because I thought the line should have

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Speaker 1: been five. Then I started writing this game up and

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Speaker 1: I went deep into the numbers on Monday and Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: and I was like, oh, oh, oh my, there is

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Speaker 1: a chance here. Georgia could absolutely run away with this game.

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Speaker 1: And I think a lot of what you said about

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Speaker 1: Trinidad is true, being on the road, the communication, but

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Speaker 1: there is more to that that I think is not

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Speaker 1: being paid attention to is a spread to Hi, I

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Speaker 1: think so. I mean Trinidad Chambells is two hundred and

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Speaker 1: twelve yards on designed runs from inside zone keepers ten

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Speaker 1: explosive runs. He can scramble out of a pressured pocket,

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Speaker 1: and Georgia doesn't get any pressure whatsoever. One hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty second in the nation. And you look at you know,

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Speaker 1: Trey Wallace, Harrison Wallas, the third Duce Alexander two point

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Speaker 1: four yards per route run. So I mean, you've seen

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Speaker 1: all these highlights from this ole Miss offense. That makes

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Speaker 1: them look like they belong in the elite class and

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Speaker 1: they should be a college football playoff contender. But Georgia

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Speaker 1: dominates inside zone fifty six percent success rate against that

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Speaker 1: run concept. When Olmoss lines up for man blocking concepts,

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Speaker 1: Georgia goes up to sixty percent success rate against that tendency.

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Speaker 1: So what Olemist likes to run on the ground is

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Speaker 1: bad news because Georgia eats that up. Now, let's go

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Speaker 1: to Trinidad. What do I handicap when I see these

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Speaker 1: players in space? Can you tackle at the second level?

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Speaker 1: Georgia has been insane in their tackling. In the last

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Speaker 1: three games. They've missed. Now, on average, teams missed about

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Speaker 1: thirteen tackles per game. Georgia's missed seventeen total in the

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Speaker 1: last three against Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama. I don't think

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Speaker 1: Trinidad Chambliss is getting outside. I don't think he's creating space.

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Speaker 1: I don't think he's joking anybody out of their shoes.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think Deuce. I don't think Deuce or

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Speaker 1: Design Stribbling or Harrison Wallace. They're gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: do anything even if they make a catch. The numbers

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Speaker 1: here from a second level tackling in a PFF graded

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Speaker 1: tackling tell me that Old Miss is not going to

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Speaker 1: have many things happen after a handoff or after a catch,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's kind of what Old Miss's offense

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Speaker 1: is based on. Chauncey Bowens wasn't on the injury report.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at the SEC availability report, so it should

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Speaker 1: be full go for all running backs. Nate Fraser, he's

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Speaker 1: the more elusive back. Georgea's tenth in offensive finishing drives.

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Speaker 1: They are really like the anti Texas here, like they

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Speaker 1: are finishing things once their drives get past the forty.

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Speaker 1: Gunnar Stockton and Josh McCrae have been absolute red zone tanks.

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Speaker 1: That's going to be the difference in some of it.

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Speaker 1: If they get into an SEC championship or the playoff.

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Speaker 1: The fact that they have this red zone package is

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Speaker 1: going to be big. And then when I was researching

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Speaker 1: Zacharia Branch, It's like ole Miss doesn't tackle well. Look

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Speaker 1: at Zacharia Branch thirty one target, thirty six targets this year,

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Speaker 1: twenty one of them behind the line of scrimmage, Like

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Speaker 1: he gets it and just goes berserk. Ole Miss's tackle

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Speaker 1: grading is seventy fourth. Right, So I got one defense

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Speaker 1: that doesn't allow any scatbacks to get anywhere, and I

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Speaker 1: got another defense that can't handle the fact that Zacharia

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Speaker 1: Branch is gonna get the ball behind the line of

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Speaker 1: scrimmage and just go crazy. I think Georgia definitely scores.

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Speaker 1: Their total of points over thirty one and a half

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Speaker 1: was the team total over. I'm kind of in trouble

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Speaker 1: with the nickel that I got down on ole Miss

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Speaker 1: plus seven. I'm absolutely going to try to get out

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Speaker 1: of that. As a matter of fact, I'm gonna come

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Speaker 1: over the top and go on Georgia if I can

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Speaker 1: get a flat seven. If I have to wait to

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Speaker 1: be live, but maybe it will be slow. But I'm

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Speaker 1: just putting out a warning signal for everybody like that

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Speaker 1: play I have in the app that was a Sunday opener,

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Speaker 1: and once I did the research, it looks really good

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Speaker 1: for Georgia to win this game, and cover.

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Speaker 2: Should be a good one between the edges. Let's move

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Speaker 2: on to the Big twelve. Texas Tech undefeated. Texas Tech

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Speaker 2: not only straight up at six and zero, but against

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Speaker 2: the spread, one of the two teams along with Memphis

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Speaker 2: that are undefeated. They'll head to Tempe to take on

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Speaker 2: Arizona State. Texas Tech seven and a half point favorite,

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Speaker 2: total fifty one and a half. You want to go

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Speaker 2: ahead to head here, I got Arizona State.

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Speaker 1: I had a really bad number on Texas Tech. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: what's the number? What's the number?

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Speaker 2: Seven and a half?

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Speaker 1: Oh gosh, yeah, I'll go ahead dead with you, all right,

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Speaker 1: I mean even, I mean the number is down because

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Speaker 1: of Sam Levit. I'll let you talk about it. But

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Speaker 1: like I had no expectation Sam Levitt was going to

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Speaker 1: play this game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I got word that Levitt was looking good in

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Speaker 2: practice Mobile nothing one on his ankle. And this is

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Speaker 2: I basically throw out last week at Utah. And by

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Speaker 2: the way, this is an enormous strength of schedule desjart,

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Speaker 2: I mean Texas Tech's at like one twenty fifth in

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Speaker 2: the country. Arizona State is a top twenty five strength

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Speaker 2: of schedule so far this season. Both of them have

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Speaker 2: played at Utah, but Texas Tech played at Utah when

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Speaker 2: Dan Pierre was clearly injured and didn't practice all week,

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Speaker 2: and Arizona State played at Utah when they didn't know

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Speaker 2: Levitt was going to be out until the day before

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Speaker 2: because he sprained his ankle playing you know, apparently a

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Speaker 2: pickup basketball game. So Jeff Sims, who's also an enormous

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Speaker 2: drop off, didn't take any reps with the Ones, and

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Speaker 2: they found out the day before, and they play out

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Speaker 2: to play at night. Big difference in Salt Lake City

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Speaker 2: than when Texas Tech out of play in the morning.

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Speaker 2: So look, all, I'm trusting Kenny Dillingham here, this is

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Speaker 2: your season on the line. You throw everything at Joey

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Speaker 2: Maguire who has still don't fully trust, and Sam Levitt

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Speaker 2: almost positive is going to play and is going to

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Speaker 2: be pretty much okay. All Sam Levitt and Kenny Dillingham

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Speaker 2: do together is cover. Sam Levitt is fourteen to two

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Speaker 2: and one against the spread eighty seven and a half,

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Speaker 2: including the postseason, against FBS teams. Over the past two years,

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Speaker 2: he's won five times in seven games as an underdog.

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Speaker 2: Could have also easily beat Texas as a thirteen point underdog.

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Speaker 2: And for what it's worth, Arizona State's fifty one to

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Speaker 2: thirty three and four against the spread over sixty percent

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Speaker 2: in home conference games since two thousand and five, third

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Speaker 2: most profitable team in the country in that scenario. But

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Speaker 2: Texas Tech. Look, I'm a believer in Texas Tech. I

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Speaker 2: think they are the best team in the Big Twelve.

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Speaker 2: I just can't get over a touchdown here and they're

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Speaker 2: banged up. Gill Howard, one of their best defensive tackles,

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Speaker 2: is out. Romelo Height might not go. He's questionable. Baron Morton,

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Speaker 2: their starting quarterback, is questionable now. They're backup Will Hammond

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Speaker 2: is one of the best in the country. They have

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Speaker 2: one of the best backup quarterback situations. But Texas Tech

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Speaker 2: isn't at full strength. Arizona State They're not either. For

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Speaker 2: what it's worth, offensive lineman Coleman, one of their best

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Speaker 2: he's out for the season, got hurt last week. Looks

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Speaker 2: like all their secondary guys who got banged up last week,

328
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Speaker 2: are going to be a go Their backup punter think's

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Speaker 2: going to play again. He's really bad, and their special

330
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Speaker 2: teams are really bad. That is a concern here. But

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Speaker 2: the one question I have for this Texas Tech team

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Speaker 2: is their cornerback group. And that's a position that I

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Speaker 2: think Arizona State can attack, not only with Jordan Tyson,

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Speaker 2: but they got Jalen Moss back last week. Now with

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Speaker 2: Jeff Simms, You're not going to be able to do

336
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Speaker 2: anything but the third downs, the red zone operation might

337
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Speaker 2: look a little better with a viable second option at receiver.

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Speaker 2: I'm trusting Dillingham. This is all in by low Sell,

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Speaker 2: high spot, give me the sun, Devil's Baby.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's still things, I mean, the reason why I'm

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Speaker 1: going to gohead to head with you, there's still things

342
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Speaker 1: in the numbers for Arizona State that I really don't like.

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Speaker 1: I mean, get past the offense of what's going on

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Speaker 1: with Sam Love there. The defense is still outside the

345
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Speaker 1: top one hundred and finishing drives are allowing a lot

346
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Speaker 1: of possessions past the forty to score over four points there,

347
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Speaker 1: one hundred and seventeenth. In the defensive rushing success rate

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Speaker 1: and Baron Morton, I mean day to day with his

349
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Speaker 1: ankle in, or you mentioned Will Hammond. Will Hammon is

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Speaker 1: a just an absolute tank in the red zone, like

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Speaker 1: he just bowls guys over and knocks him down. And

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Speaker 1: you know Cameron Dicky and Jacoby Williams, they should absolutely

353
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Speaker 1: feast its Arizona State defense one hundred and seventeenth and

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Speaker 1: rushing success rate. Sun Devils are thirty seven percent success

355
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Speaker 1: rate against inside zone. So I think Texas Tech's gonna

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Speaker 1: be run there and be able to run their offense

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Speaker 1: and do what they want to do, despite if Sam

358
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Speaker 1: Levitt plays or not, And even if Sam Levitt does play,

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Speaker 1: I mean Arizona State's one hundred and twentieth and passing

360
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Speaker 1: success rate, it has not been a great offense this year.

361
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Speaker 1: And they're I mean they're not scoring when they get

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Speaker 1: into scoring position they are. It's finishing drives, problems on

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Speaker 1: each side of the ball here. Arizona State's poor and tackling.

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Speaker 1: The Texas Tech defense has just been absolutely crazy against

365
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Speaker 1: man power relief. Brown is just going to have to

366
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Speaker 1: do a lot of work here. He's forced thirty five

367
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Speaker 1: missed tackles, but he's going up against, you know, a

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech defense that's tackling at a pretty good rate.

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Speaker 1: So I took a bad number. I'm gonna stick with it.

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Speaker 1: I'm taking another number with you. I'm gonna stick with it.

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Speaker 1: I don't the numbers in here tell me that Arizona State,

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Speaker 1: who also by the way, dead last and sp plus

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Speaker 1: special teams, is something that can swing this game. So

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Speaker 1: I'll stick with Texas Tech. I'll stick with my bad number,

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Speaker 1: and we'll write it out.

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Speaker 2: I can't I have to take the spot or anything

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Speaker 2: over a touchdown spot. I mean we're saying, basically, given

378
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Speaker 2: the spot and home field, that Tech is now ten

379
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Speaker 2: points better than Arizona State. Not there. I think this

380
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Speaker 2: should be under a touchdown. I mean, text player, look,

381
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 2: Techs covered every game. They look great. They've also played nobody,

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Speaker 2: and they played Utah with the heart quarterback they played

383
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Speaker 2: but Houston with a hurt quarterback. I mean, who else

384
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Speaker 2: have they played. It's one of the easiest.

385
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Speaker 1: They're not gonna play anybody, and they're gonna be number

386
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Speaker 1: two or three in the College Ball playoff rankings.

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Speaker 2: We'll see. I think they go down for what it's worth.

388
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Speaker 2: Moving on to the SEC. I think they're gonna be

389
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Speaker 2: in the Big tal and. I think they're eventually going

390
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 2: to get to the college baw plow. I think they

391
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Speaker 2: get upset this week.

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Speaker 1: Okay, if they don't get up I mean, let me

393
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Speaker 1: look at the schedule. If they don't get upset this week,

394
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Speaker 1: which this would be the week hosting Oak State, going

395
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 1: to Kansas State, hosting BYU off a bye, hosting UCFA

396
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 1: went out.

397
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Speaker 2: Yeah, so where they're going now?

398
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Speaker 1: This is it?

399
00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 2: Trust then Dylan, all right, moving, let's go back to

400
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 2: the SEC. Alabama, like Georgia, also looking for revenge from

401
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:22,720
Speaker 2: a loss on the road last year. We'll host Tennessee

402
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 2: Alabama eight and a half point favorite, total fifty eight

403
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 2: and a half. Like, I don't think that this Alabama

404
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 2: team is super late. They're playing better. Ty Simpson is

405
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 2: playing really well. There's gonna be I just don't know

406
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 2: if there they can be balanced. If jam Miller doesn't go,

407
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 2: he's clearly the best option. He's questionable the concussion. I'm

408
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:41,920
Speaker 2: not sure if he's gonna.

409
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 1: Go or not. The rest of their running back stink

410
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Speaker 1: at a grading yards.

411
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Speaker 2: Now. Can the thing is? Can Ti Simpson just drop

412
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 2: back and throw over the Tennessee secondary. Probably in the

413
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:57,959
Speaker 2: SEC players starting to see Tennessee really missed their two

414
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,119
Speaker 2: corners who were gonna start. They thought they were going

415
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 2: to get him back by this point in the air,

416
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 2: but neither are going to go. Including McCoy. It was

417
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,360
Speaker 2: going to be a high NFL draft pick, So they're

418
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,679
Speaker 2: gonna be without their projected two starting cornerbacks. Once again,

419
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 2: what this Tennessee defense is, I mean they have a

420
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Speaker 2: lot of holes. I mean, this is a team that

421
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 2: should have lost to Mississippi State, that should have lost

422
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,919
Speaker 2: to Arkansas without a couple of fumbles on their home field.

423
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Speaker 2: And you know in those games they gave up what

424
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 2: and they also get they get a forty four to Georgia.

425
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Speaker 2: I mean, this is a UAB was going up and

426
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 2: down the field that Mississippi State put up thirty four

427
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 2: without a couple of fumbles. Arkansas puts up forty plus

428
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 2: and wins in Knoxville. This defense is not very good.

429
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 2: What they do do is create chaos and havoc right sacks,

430
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Speaker 2: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, defensive touchdowns. They're all in

431
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 2: the top ten nationally in those statistics. That's what this

432
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 2: game is going to come down to how much if

433
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 2: album is not able to run the ball and they're

434
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 2: just dropping back, how many negative plays can they create?

435
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 2: Can they force Tye Simpson into some mistakes, because if not,

436
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 2: I don't think that they can cover Alabama consistently. And

437
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 2: Joey Aguilar, Yeah, in Tuscaloosa. I don't think it's gonna end. Well,

438
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: it's gonna end probably with some mistakes, and I think

439
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 2: Obama eventually pulls away. Do I see any value with

440
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 2: laying eight and a half? Again, I don't think that

441
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 2: there's a huge difference between tier one and tier two

442
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 2: in the SEC. No, but it would be Bama or

443
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:38,360
Speaker 2: nothing for me. You got anything here?

444
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 1: I make the total sixty five. I think it's kind

445
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 1: of a gift that this thing went down from fifty

446
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 1: nine and a half down to fifty nine being a pretty

447
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 1: key number. Draft Kings actually fifty eight and a half.

448
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,159
Speaker 1: So we'll see, we'll see if that. I don't know

449
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 1: if there's weather related with check that out, because I

450
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: know there is at the Arkansas game, So we'll see

451
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 1: what's passing through. But you know, another part of this

452
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 1: is jam Miller came out questionable, so you have to

453
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 1: wonder how good the Alabama offen's got to be. And

454
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,400
Speaker 1: it's not just Jan Miller, you know, it's also wide

455
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 1: receiver Derek Meadows. He's got concussion protocol. Ryan Williams is

456
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 1: gord Ryan Williams. He's got hip leg issues. He's got

457
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 1: ten drops on the season. He had one target against Missouri.

458
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 1: They've been limiting his snaps in practice. You know, ty

459
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 1: Simpson is going to need everything that he can get

460
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 1: out of his offensive line's top twenty five and pass

461
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 1: blocking because Tennessee is eighth in pass rush and I

462
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: love I love myself some Ty Simpson, but at the

463
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 1: same time, you know, he has to have people to

464
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 1: throw to. I don't know if we're just going to

465
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 1: be doing Jeremy Bernard and orbit motion and doing handoffs,

466
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,439
Speaker 1: jets jet sweeps to Jeremy Bernard as our running game here.

467
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 1: But that's kind of looks like where we're going. The number,

468
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 1: in my opinion, should be a lot lower. I mean,

469
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 1: I make this three, and the problem is I still

470
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 1: can't justify why. I mean, there's a lot of injuries,

471
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 1: especially to the Tennessee defense, so I can see why

472
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 1: I would steam that much. But at the same time.

473
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 1: Alabama always gets a lead on everybody unless your name

474
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 1: is Vanderbilt. Alabama always has a first quarter plan for

475
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 1: certain players on offense that will get them the lead.

476
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: Same thing in this game last year when Tennessee had

477
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 1: to come back and won. They won the second half

478
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 1: last year twenty four to ten. I mean Calin de

479
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: borre perfectly planned for this game against Josh Hipel and

480
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 1: Hypel came out in the second half and absolutely whipped Alabama.

481
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: I kind of expect the second same thing to happen here.

482
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 1: So I think in Alabama first quarters in play. I

483
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 1: think a Tennessee live play is going to be in

484
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 1: play somewhere around the middle eight. But this Tennessee secondary,

485
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,880
Speaker 1: you're right eighty first, and defensive passing success rate they're

486
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: missus McCoy. Arkansas took full advantage of that on the outside,

487
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 1: but then again, we don't have Ryan Williams out there

488
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: to do that. If there is a wide receivers you

489
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: can find props on if you have a book that

490
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 1: has deep prop Lotsier Brooks was the benefactor of Ryan Williams.

491
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 1: Like he's picked up his target share. He's gone for

492
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 1: about two or three to game to about six. If

493
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 1: you're finding props out there, that might be the guy

494
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 1: to target with Ryan Williams being in so much pain.

495
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 1: But you know, overall, Ala, I just think that's the

496
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 1: way to play. This is the over at fifty nine

497
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: is good for me. Alabama always has a plan and

498
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 1: wins the first quarter. I think a live bet on

499
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:05,360
Speaker 1: Tennessee is the way to play.

500
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 2: I don't mind the over, especially if Miller's out then

501
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 2: it's just going to be right dropping back and throwing

502
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 2: and there's going to be a lot of that. There's

503
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 2: could be some Agalar mistakes and there's gonna be a

504
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 2: lot of throwing from Tennessee. So I don't mind that.

505
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 2: I'm at nine though, So oh wow, I'm way off.

506
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 2: You're mister high on Alabama and you're yeah, I do

507
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 2: stop home home field here in this spot with revenge,

508
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 2: I have at like four.

509
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 1: I think one other thing I wanted to say about

510
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: Tennessee stretch spread. I had it in my notes and

511
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 1: Tennessee's explosives. They're two biggest routes are crossers and hitches.

512
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,679
Speaker 1: You just know that's how the stretch spread works. Right.

513
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 1: Alabama's defense or secondary is a thirty three percent success

514
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 1: rate against hitches, which is really bad. Like it's just

515
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: gonna be hitch city and explosives. So I do like

516
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 1: Tennessee a lot. I just think Alabama's gonna get.

517
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 2: On the board first, all right, Moving on to a

518
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 2: non conference matchup between USC and Notre Dame. Notre Dame

519
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 2: nine and a half point favorite, total sixty one and

520
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 2: a half Saturday night in South ben seven point thirty eastern,

521
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 2: and we have beer in the crowd this time around.

522
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 2: For this matchup. The Notre Dame defense, Chris Ashes fixed

523
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 2: some things. Leonard Moore is back, one of the best

524
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 2: corners in college football. Notre Dame already lost Jagasol, their

525
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 2: left tackle, they lost their center for the year, one

526
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 2: of their best defensive tackles, and Rubio is out. And

527
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 2: then USC has a bunch of injury questions as well.

528
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 2: Their running backs are decimated. We'll see if the true

529
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 2: freshman walk on can have another big game. Their left

530
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 2: tackle is questionable for and.

531
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 1: He's the guy, Elijah Page is the guy that's the

532
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 1: anchor of the whole offensive line.

533
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, so he's important. The I'm so I'm very

534
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 2: curious to see what happens in this game. So I

535
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 2: make this only seven, but everything, everything surrounding the game

536
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 2: favors Notre Dame to me. So you have USC traveling

537
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 2: out to the Eastern time zone where they have not

538
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 2: been how many.

539
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 1: They had in Big ten play in the in the

540
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 1: central Eastern.

541
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 2: Time zone zero they've not been good there. And then

542
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 2: the weather with the USC so like this is may

543
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 2: arguably the number one and number two running backs that

544
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 2: will be taken in the draft next year. But Wymont

545
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 2: Jordan is out for six weeks. His backup is already

546
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 2: out for the year, so your running backs are decimated.

547
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 2: Everything in a link in a Lincoln Riley offense starts

548
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 2: with the running game. And now you're going up against

549
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 2: the team that their defense is not let up a

550
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 2: point in the second half and three straight games. And

551
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 2: if you can't get the running game going and there's

552
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 2: weather that's not great, and you know that Notre Dame

553
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 2: is going to be able to run the ball in

554
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 2: USC one of the best backfields led by the number

555
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 2: one running back in next year's draft, and Jeremiah Love

556
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 2: I am super curious to see what Notre Dame does

557
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 2: with Makayle Lemon, who might might be the best receiver

558
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 2: in the country that's going to the draft next year.

559
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 2: He's gonna line up in the slot a lot. Davonte

560
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 2: Smith is questionable. He's supposed to be their slot corner.

561
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 2: Hasn't been healthy since you know, really Week one. In

562
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 2: the slot they tried I think Hobbs first, then they've

563
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 2: tried this kid Golden who's been horrendous. Yeah, so will

564
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 2: number one, will Smith back? Or will they use Leonard

565
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 2: Moore to follow Lemon around in the slotter outside he

566
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: mixes it up. That's super intriguing to me because if

567
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 2: they don't, I think Lemon props could be. If you

568
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 2: haven't watched Makayle Lemon, he's an amazing watch. He's basically

569
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 2: going to be like cooka Nakoo in my opinion. So

570
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 2: that's that's a super intriguing matchup. But with the weather

571
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 2: that travel, some of the USC injuries, everything's that all

572
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 2: streams Not Dame. To me, this is basically a college

573
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 2: twell playoff elimination game. If Notre Dame loses their out,

574
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 2: if they win, looking at their schedule, they're pretty much

575
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 2: a lock to get in that's one spot from the

576
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 2: big ten or SEC most likely that's either going to

577
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 2: be open or not, and one of those spots could

578
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 2: be taken by USC. But USC either needs to win

579
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 2: this game or win at Oregon. That's pretty much what

580
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 2: their season comes down to, and they can't slip up

581
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 2: at Nebraska.

582
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 1: Would say, you, yeah, that ain't happening us season. Big

583
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 1: trouble here, Wayne and Jordan runs count.

584
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 2: They're winning out Oregon, by.

585
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 1: The way, maybe so we're so down on orgon now.

586
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 1: Wayven Jordan, I'm sorry. Wavin Jordan is the running back

587
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,479
Speaker 1: for USC. Counter inside zone power, just a big part

588
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: of this efficient offense. It all starts with him. He's

589
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 1: not going to play. Don't know when he's coming back.

590
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 1: King Miller had twenty nine rushing attempts and three explosives

591
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: against Michigan. He's gonna have to take on a heavier

592
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 1: load than he has in recent games before, and we'll

593
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 1: see if he's able to still grind in the third

594
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 1: and fourth quarter with you know, a carry load that

595
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 1: he's never had before. Elijah Page, like we said, didn't

596
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: play against Michigan. His backup Tobias Raymond. He had a

597
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 1: very poor run blocking grade against Michigan center Killing O'Connor,

598
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 1: also Michigans against the Wolverines. He doesn't really have a

599
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: return date. So this offensive line is just a mass

600
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: unit right now. And what Notre Dame does on defense,

601
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 1: they can be attacked, but they have to be attacked

602
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 1: with man blocking concepts. Just line up, hand the ball

603
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 1: off and go up to the AB or C gap

604
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 1: and that's just not what USC does. So I expect

605
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: Notre Dame defense to have success in getting USC to

606
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 1: throw the ball at you know, we'll see what they

607
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: do with Mikay Limba, but that's it. I mean, that's

608
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: all you have to target on now. The other side

609
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: of the ball a Notre Dame is absolutely And you

610
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: mentioned Jeremiah Love being the number one pick in the

611
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: draft coming up. How far down the board is Jadariing Price.

612
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 1: I mean he is. He's had as many explosives this

613
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 1: year as Love and right now, I mean, you look

614
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 1: at the combination of car with a one two punch

615
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 1: of jagering of Love and Price very well. Yeah, I

616
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 1: mean I think about how it took him till the

617
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: second half of the Miami game in the opener before

618
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:08,719
Speaker 1: he finally didn't look like a freshman. It only took

619
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 1: this kid two quarters to figure it out. But Love

620
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 1: and Price fifteen touchdowns only two fumbles, are both averaging

621
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: over three point six yards after first contact, and they're

622
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 1: just unstoppable using outside zone and eleven personnel. It's one

623
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 1: of the highest success rates in the nation. They average

624
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 1: an explosive one of every four touches. And then you

625
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: look at the passing attack top twenty and passing success rate.

626
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 1: They're top four targets. Notre Dame's top four targets all

627
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 1: over two yards per oute run, which is the barrier

628
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: for explosive wide receivers. Again, they run hitches and comeback routes.

629
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 1: The Trojans haven't been able to defend any of this.

630
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 1: They can't defeat that. They can't defend zone read. Even

631
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 1: if Notre Dame is pushed into passing downs. They're currently

632
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 1: fourth and success rate in passing downs. There is heavy

633
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: rain in the forecast for the first half of this game.

634
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: I'd keep my eyes on that. That could really affect

635
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: totals going on here. But that actually, like I've said,

636
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 1: favor is the running team, and the running team here

637
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 1: is Notre Dame. Not gonna be this mash unit from USC,

638
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: So if the weather does look bad, it'd be a

639
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 1: Notre Dame first half overall Notre Dame for the game.

640
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: I wrote it up for action Notre Dame team total

641
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: over I don't see Jendarian Price in Jeremiah Love getting

642
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 1: stopped whatsoever. And I did take a Jenarian Price prop.

643
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: His number out there in DK was sixty one. He

644
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 1: averages seventy point three yards per game, and I think

645
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 1: he's going to have a lot of advantages here. And

646
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 1: keep your eyes on the wind. I read twenty million

647
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 1: hour GUS. That wouldn't be good for the USC passing

648
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 1: attack either. So there's an avenue here for Notre Dame

649
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 1: to absolutely roll.

650
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, my numbers like you see, especially at ten, but

651
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 2: all the surrounding factors keep me off here. All right,

652
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 2: let's get to the rundown. Go through a bunch of

653
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 2: games here. Let's say in the big ten Washington at Michigan.

654
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 2: This is another game where my numbers like Washington at

655
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 2: this spot isn't great. Michigan five and a half point favorite.

656
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 2: Here Washington's continues to take a bit of money. Total

657
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 2: fifty and a half. You got that West Coast team traveling.

658
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: I mean Washington's done a lot of I mean their

659
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 2: their travel schedules brutally several.

660
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 1: Trips to the East coast last year. Now they're out

661
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: here again after Maryland.

662
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, noon kick, nine am, bodyclock. That didn't work out

663
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 2: well for them last year at Iowa. We'll see if

664
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 2: Jed Fish is adjusted. There's also some key injuries, like

665
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 2: there will Carter Willis played their left tackle, huge drop

666
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 2: off to his backup. They also had their left guard,

667
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 2: their guard leave Mills. Will he play I don't know.

668
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 2: Durfy he's one of their best d rushers. Will he play,

669
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 2: I don't know. They did get to carry O'Davis, one

670
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 2: of the best corners in collegwall back Jacob Man who

671
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 2: one of their linebackers. Also, they already lost their best

672
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 2: linebacker Man who didn't play last week. They held him

673
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 2: out because they're figuring out his eligibility. It's a whole thing.

674
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 2: The rest of the linebackers are bad, they're gonna need

675
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 2: them against Michigan. So there's a whole lot of uncertainty

676
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 2: and it's not a great spot for Washington playing Michigan

677
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 2: coming off a bad loss. You should get their best

678
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 2: effort here. Anything here.

679
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've been waiting all week for a flat Michigan

680
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 1: minus three in the first half here, because Washington not

681
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 1: only cannot win when they travel. They did finally beat Maryland,

682
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 1: but guess what.

683
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 2: They didn't score against Rutgers. Do they start slow a lot.

684
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 2: That's why I'm gonna be looking for a Washington live

685
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 2: depending on the engine of So.

686
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,359
Speaker 1: I'm betting Michigan Michigan the first half. There are there

687
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 1: are a couple of books Juice minus two and a half,

688
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 1: but I'll take Michigan minus three. That's flat right now.

689
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 1: I mean Washington didn't score in the first three quarters

690
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 1: against Maryland and that win. The super slow start every

691
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 1: time on Rutgers against Friday night is like I was

692
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: worried about my team total over on Washington. They had

693
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 1: to come out have a twenty one point out burst

694
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 1: in the third quarter to seal the game. Last year,

695
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 1: four road losses Iowa, Rutgers, Indiana, Penn State twenty twenty four.

696
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 1: The team just cannot travel whatsoever. And I do worry

697
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 1: that Michigan's defense was kind of destroyed on the ground

698
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:54,320
Speaker 1: by USC, especially with a couple of backup offensive linemen

699
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 1: USC had six point two yards on the ground and

700
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 1: thirty six attempts. But so Williams and Coleman should have

701
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: a c path with outside zone. I mean, Michigan's only

702
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 1: forty four percent agains outside zone. But when do they

703
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,439
Speaker 1: flip that switch at this time of day to start

704
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 1: doing that, because we've I've spouted off these numbers before

705
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,320
Speaker 1: and then they show up and they're completely flat. And

706
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 1: then the Justice Haynes thing, which I don't think he's

707
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 1: going this weekend if he doesn't go, the backup Jordan

708
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,800
Speaker 1: Marshall two point seven yards after first contact. That's just

709
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: there's nothing special about that number at all. So from

710
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 1: a Michigan perspective, without Justice Haynes, Bryce Underwood becomes the

711
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,760
Speaker 1: primary ball carrier and passing to Somaje Morgan and Donovan

712
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 1: McCully becomes the expected route for the offense. In other words,

713
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 1: I don't think Washington knows what they're gonna be preparing

714
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 1: for in the first half of this game. I don't

715
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 1: think they're gonna know if Justice Haynes is playing or not.

716
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: And right now in practice, they've got to be preparing

717
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,280
Speaker 1: for both. Like a world with Haynes and a world's

718
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 1: without them. So I think that's completely the advantage of

719
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: Michigan in the first half, that Washington's not gonna go,

720
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 1: It's gonna come out. Combine that with the fact that

721
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 1: Washington's always slow in these games. Let's take Michigan first half.

722
00:35:56,920 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 2: Here's an ugly one. Oklahoma at South Carolina. Oklahoma five

723
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,359
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite total forty three and a half.

724
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 2: You want to talk about the offensive line injuries on

725
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 2: both sides. South Carolina could be down multiple starters going

726
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 2: up against that Oklahoma front. That is not ideal. What

727
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 2: are we gonna get from a tier It clearly wasn't

728
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 2: healthy last week.

729
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 1: He says he's a full go in practice and having

730
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 1: no problems after through three I iNTS because he had

731
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 1: no zip on the ball whatsoever. But he says he's fine.

732
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 2: I hate the South Carolina team with everything that I have,

733
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 2: but not backing Oklahoma here. You got anything here?

734
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a first half undergame. I mean, I don't

735
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 1: trust what Materia' is saying. I don't trust South Caroline's

736
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 1: gonna get a push against that OU defensive line. That

737
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 1: OU defensive line travel. It doesn't matter what time of day. Right,

738
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: they went to Temple and brought everybody from Norman and

739
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City and said, we don't give a shit with

740
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: time his game's being played. We're gonna eat Temple alive.

741
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 1: Like that defense just fucks. I'm sorry, we could delete

742
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 1: that out or whatever, but the defense never stops. And

743
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 1: Lenora's sellers one hundred and fifty one scramble yards this

744
00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 1: year because he's always under pressure. This kid that he's

745
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 1: never had protection in his entire life. So I just

746
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,439
Speaker 1: first half under here all the way. And I don't

747
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 1: believe Materia is completely healthy. And South Carolina can play

748
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 1: a little d here twenty of them stuff rate South

749
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 1: Helin's twenty then stuff right, I mean they're gonna be

750
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 1: able to stop the Oe rush.

751
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 2: I mean Olahoma can't run it on their own. I

752
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 2: mean yeah, they also might be without one of their

753
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 2: best receivers. But yeah, the defensive line tier should dominate

754
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 2: this game, which should be ugly. I don't hate that.

755
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: Jefferson pilot time squad. You always take the first half under.

756
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is twelve forty five Eastern Missouri at Auburn.

757
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 2: Missouri's flipped to a one and a half point favorite

758
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 2: total down to forty three and a half. You know

759
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 2: my numbers say Auburn I might get the playing them. Yeah,

760
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:51,280
Speaker 2: I just wear that mentally after last week the refs

761
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 2: melting down everything that went against them. Where's Hugh Freeze at?

762
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 2: But here's the thing. If I can get a gauge

763
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 2: that they're that they care and they're focused, because now,

764
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 2: I mean Auburn has what three losses, so like their

765
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: season is over. This is a team that was like, hey,

766
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 2: you're run to the college ball playoff and it's not

767
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 2: a great spot just situationally if they're not, if they

768
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 2: don't have their mind right. But Missouri needs to run

769
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 2: the ball. You can't run on Auburn. We've seen that

770
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 2: nobody can and we saw last week. It was the

771
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 2: first real test for Formula. And I don't trust him

772
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:31,239
Speaker 2: to throw the ball. He bails from the pocket way

773
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 2: too quick. And these edge rushers for Auburn can I

774
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 2: think cause him some issues? Can Jackson Nornal Company move

775
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 2: the ball? Probably not consistently, But at home I still

776
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 2: like Freeze directing the choir telling him what to do.

777
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:54,800
Speaker 2: I think that they'll be able to find enough offense

778
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 2: to win this game if they're in the right state

779
00:38:58,840 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 2: of mind.

780
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 1: Any here, that's the problem. I mean, that was a

781
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 1: massive breakdown. That was a failure by the coach to

782
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 1: grab them at halftime. It was a failure by the

783
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: players to be able to pick up from that end

784
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 1: zone stuff and the refs that and how much of

785
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 1: that does that linger in their brains into practice and

786
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 1: to prep for this game? Another grind coming up here. Oh,

787
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: now you've got to take on a mad Hardy. From

788
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: an Nex's and O standpoint, Yeah, Auburn absolutely should be

789
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 1: the team that we're playing here. I project Auburn minus three,

790
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: but you cannot negate what happened last weekend A Mott.

791
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 1: Hardy is better with you know he does at outside zone,

792
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 1: MISSI little inside zone. Auburn's been much better inside between

793
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: the tackles. So you would expect Hardy to be popped

794
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 1: outside and then Auburn's eighty eighth and pff tackling. So Hardy,

795
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: if he's going to break one, it's going to be

796
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: off the edge. But we'll see if that's what happens here.

797
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: But Perbula five big time throws six turnover worthy plays

798
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:52,399
Speaker 1: He's had one big time throw in the last four

799
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:56,879
Speaker 1: games against Bama, UMass, South Carolina, and Ull. One big

800
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: time throw from this quarterback. I mean, when does he

801
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:04,280
Speaker 1: get the from drink? It's bad. It's bad. So Auburn

802
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 1: has an extreme van backups hurt.

803
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 2: I mean it was like the coastar horn, so like

804
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 2: they don't really have anyone else to go to.

805
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 1: Can Drew Pine transfer back in still in trust.

806
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 2: The Missouri kicking the situation either, which is worth noting.

807
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:19,800
Speaker 1: Well, you know the other thing too, is I just

808
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:21,800
Speaker 1: cannot figure out for Auburn for the life of me.

809
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 1: Now to pick on Auburn a little bit, Why in

810
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 1: the world did you get all these wide receivers and

811
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 1: you're one hundred and thirty third pass EPA Jackson Arbans

812
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 1: can't throw. He's made two big time throws this season.

813
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 1: How bad are these two quarterbacks? How bad are these

814
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 1: two quarter But they're bad seven turnover worthy plays on

815
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 1: the season.

816
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 2: I also don't mind the under here. This feel to

817
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: me if Auburn cares, this is like twenty one to

818
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 2: seventeen Auburn. If Auburn doesn't like, it could get ugly

819
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 2: and it could be like twenty three to three Missouri,

820
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 2: but my number is say Auburn. I think I'll we're

821
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 2: going to be on them in some former fashion. But

822
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 2: I'm just trying to I know some people close to

823
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 2: the program. I'm trying to just get the get the

824
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 2: vibe checks. So make sure you say two to the

825
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 2: Action Network, the award winning Action Network AP. We can

826
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,759
Speaker 2: find all of our bets. Georgia Tech at Duke undefeated

827
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 2: Top fifteen Georgia Tech. I like Duke here. I'm just

828
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:21,359
Speaker 2: waiting for this line.

829
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 1: I like too coming down.

830
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:24,439
Speaker 2: Put it on the board.

831
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 1: Well, I'm in the same boat as you. The reason

832
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,399
Speaker 1: I don't I don't have it in there is because

833
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: of the number. I'm waiting on the numbers. So but yeah,

834
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 1: we're on it.

835
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 2: All right, Let's put the Duke money line on the

836
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 2: on the app watch that you and I are going

837
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 2: to snag it. Yeah, I mean, like, look, look, Georgia Tech.

838
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,799
Speaker 2: I love Buster Faulkner, I love Brent Kay. They've been

839
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,320
Speaker 2: very fortunate. Like they're getting too much credit for the

840
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:47,280
Speaker 2: Clemson when, like I said, people Clemson stinks they should

841
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 2: have lost the Wake Forest. They're three to zero and

842
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:53,320
Speaker 2: one possession games Duke has played the much tougher strength

843
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 2: of schedules so far, and Duke has really found its offense.

844
00:41:56,000 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 2: Mens is rolling. And here's here's where I think this like,

845
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 2: look the Duke secondary. The Duke run defense has been excellent.

846
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 2: You can't get a push on them. Georgia Tech obviously

847
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 2: wants to run the ball. I think what that's going

848
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 2: to lead to a lot of third and long's known

849
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 2: passing downs. That is how you beat Duke this year.

850
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 2: They're really missing their their stud safety has been out

851
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 2: all year. They have one really good corner. But this

852
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:26,840
Speaker 2: isn't an electric Georgia Tech passing attack. It's all scheme.

853
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 2: It's Buster Faulkner. I mean, this is a great Buster

854
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 2: Falconer versus Mandy Diaz, great chess match. But if you

855
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 2: look back Haynes King, if you look at back at

856
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:38,719
Speaker 2: Haines King's numbers multiple seasons under pressure and against the

857
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:43,320
Speaker 2: blitz a crater. Now most quarterbacks fall and their numbers

858
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,800
Speaker 2: get worse. Under Haines King's numbers fall off a cliff.

859
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 2: What are you gonna get against vany Diez? Lots of pressure, pressure,

860
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 2: lots of blitzer, and I don't think Georgia Tech's gonna

861
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 2: be able to run the ball. On the other side

862
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:57,240
Speaker 2: this duke offense, which is rolling, They're going up against

863
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 2: the Georgia Tech defense that I just don't value highly.

864
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 2: This defense is worse than last year. They have one

865
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 2: really good linebacker, I like, one corner that I like,

866
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 2: one defensive lineman that I really like. Outside of that,

867
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:11,760
Speaker 2: this defense is gettable. I think Haines King under pressure,

868
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 2: it's going to be in some trouble here. Georgia Tech's

869
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 2: not going to be able to slow down this duke

870
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 2: offense enough. Yeah, I think Georgia Tech suffers its first

871
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,720
Speaker 2: loss of the season. I'm rolling with the Blue Devils.

872
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 1: Anything to add there, well, First off, I'll say, from

873
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: a board perspective, there's minus one twenties widely available out

874
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 1: there on the money line. So if we want to

875
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 1: tell everybody that I'll probably I would probably.

876
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 2: I just put money line up there because we're going

877
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:35,879
Speaker 2: to wait for the cheapest money on boss.

878
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 1: I'll throw two bullet points to everything that you were saying.

879
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: First off, Darien Mensa hasn't thrown an interception in three

880
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: games and just one turnover worthy play against NCY State

881
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 1: Syracuse and cal Georgia Tech outside the top one hundred

882
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 1: coverage per PFF. So I think Mensa is going to

883
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 1: continue to ascend. There was some struggles there at the

884
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:53,400
Speaker 1: beginning of the season. I think he's going to continue

885
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 1: to ascend as the quarterback that they paid for here.

886
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 1: And then the second point is, Duke is the much

887
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 1: better team in Havoc here with a tougher strength of schedule,

888
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 1: So you know, I don't trust Georgia Tech's offense to

889
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 1: completely protect or keep the ball off the carpet. So

890
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 1: Duke for a lot of reasons here.

891
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 2: All right, to go back to the Big twelve, the

892
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 2: Holy War, Utah three three and a half point favorite

893
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:19,240
Speaker 2: total forty nine and a half. The scale we played

894
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 2: eight pm Eastern on Fox in probo should be an

895
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 2: electric atmosphere. I had Utah circled after last year for

896
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:33,879
Speaker 2: a whole year because of how last year's game ended.

897
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 2: The officials a lot of animosity, remember Whittingham's comments after

898
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 2: the game. Just so I had Utah circle. I just

899
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 2: I can't I can't get to this number. I want

900
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 2: to fade BYU too, but I just can't quite get

901
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 2: to this Utah number. And I don't even give you

902
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 2: Toad that much credit for last week. Yeah, their triple

903
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 2: option offense was rolling, but Arizona State was in a

904
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 2: horrible position with their backup quarterback. The didn't even know

905
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 2: I was gonna star until the day before, So like,

906
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 2: I didn't upgrade Utah as much as I normally would

907
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 2: have been a normal situation for beating Arizona State like that.

908
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 2: B YU did get pretty fortunate against Arizona and a

909
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 2: game they trailed by ten in the fourth quarter, But

910
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,359
Speaker 2: I just can't get to this number. It is worth

911
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 2: noting that Eyu's looks like the BA is very good linebackers,

912
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 2: and it looks like Kelly is going to start. He

913
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 2: was out last week. He's the spy that's important. They

914
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 2: are gonna be down a couple guys in the secondary.

915
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 2: They're starting safety. You got hurt last week, and their

916
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 2: nickel has been out for the past couple of weeks.

917
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 2: I don't I just don't trust this Utah passing attack

918
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 2: and their receivers to like want to lay it with

919
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 2: them on the road and need them to win by

920
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:49,800
Speaker 2: you know, semi medium margin. So yeah, I think that sadly,

921
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 2: this is a pass for me, I think that I

922
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 2: saw you play you Yu.

923
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:54,919
Speaker 1: You like normally the YU had three and a half? Yeah,

924
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 1: because I make the game two, So I mean, is

925
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,439
Speaker 1: that good enough for me to throw some coin down

926
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 1: on it? But then I went through all of the

927
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 1: numbers and the matchups and really, frankly, what this is

928
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 1: is Bear Bachmeyer and LJ. Martin what they do. From

929
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:11,320
Speaker 1: a run concept perspective, can Utah stop? It's sort of

930
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 1: a wash. Well, from a Utah perspective, can Devin Dampier

931
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:16,920
Speaker 1: and Wayshawn Parker and Nakari Rogers what they do on

932
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 1: the ground with power and inside zone can be?

933
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 2: Why you stop?

934
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 1: That that's pretty much a wash too. Really, where the

935
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 1: advantages for BYU are in the stat sheet is offensive

936
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 1: rush EPA. They're going to have some explosives here, and

937
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 1: they have a way better tackling grade per PFF, and

938
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 1: these are pretty similar strength to schedules. So slightly I

939
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:36,279
Speaker 1: like the number because I think it should be less

940
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 1: than three. BYU has better rush explosives than what Utah

941
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:42,600
Speaker 1: has so far, and they have a better tackling grade

942
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 1: per PFF. So for those reasons, I took BYU plus

943
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 1: three and a half and I'm absolutely going to try

944
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,320
Speaker 1: to get Utah plus three on the other side. So

945
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 1: this will be my poor myself, a Scotch and roll.

946
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 1: You go out to the porch and try to live that.

947
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 2: A couple of these home field here is like a

948
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:02,320
Speaker 2: little over three, so like I don't have Utah. In

949
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 2: order to make Utah bet even at three, I'd have

950
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:09,800
Speaker 2: to have them a touchdown better than BYU on a

951
00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 2: neutral field, Like I just don't have that. So I

952
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 2: wanted to play Utah. I had this one of the

953
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:16,359
Speaker 2: plays in since last year. If it was under three,

954
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 2: I would have played them.

955
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:20,799
Speaker 1: I've got Utah power rted four and a half better,

956
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,399
Speaker 1: so I'd have this over seven if they were at home.

957
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 2: Quarterback injuries Bowling Green, Drew Pine. He was in a

958
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 2: boot last week. Notre He's gonna go. I'll talk about

959
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 2: that game in a bit. Penn State. I don't know

960
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:31,600
Speaker 2: what we're going to get from Penn State. Grunkel Meyer's

961
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,399
Speaker 2: a highly bataltic kid. Obviously he's up Penn State. They're

962
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,440
Speaker 2: in Iowa where they mentally.

963
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 1: Defensive line can't stop anybody. How are you taking them

964
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 1: against this Iowa RUSSI attack.

965
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:41,799
Speaker 2: I'm not taking them. I'm not betting that.

966
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:44,360
Speaker 1: Game idea, how anyone would do it.

967
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 2: Arizona State, it looks like as he talked about Elevet

968
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 2: as a goo Wisconsin. Who knows Michigan State Childs might

969
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 2: not play, doesn't even matter.

970
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 1: Texas center is out.

971
00:47:56,120 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 2: Yes, Clemson club Nick looks like he not going to play.

972
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: That's the word I got. That's why the market crash,

973
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 1: blowing that through the app before I could see.

974
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 2: UCF. It looks like Tadan Jackson's back fanters out. They're

975
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 2: left tackles also banged up, and one of the Red

976
00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 2: rushers will be out, but Tatan Jackson is a better

977
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 2: option there. They played West Virginia is still pretty banged up.

978
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:21,600
Speaker 2: Some other injuries where noting like Georgia State defense is

979
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 2: really banked up, especially their defense line, the entire BC defense.

980
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:28,279
Speaker 2: We'll see if they get anyone back against Yukon. I

981
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 2: think that they're cheap if they do. Colorado State's defense

982
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 2: has been down like nine starters. That's worth keeping an

983
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 2: eye on. UNC is going to be without their top

984
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 2: cornerback and they can't get pressure. That's not good news

985
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 2: against JKS.

986
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 1: And they're taking a lot of money right now as

987
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 1: we're recording this from.

988
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:52,200
Speaker 2: Ten back at quarterback, I have no interest there. Those

989
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 2: are some of the cluster injuries worth noting, some tough

990
00:48:56,360 --> 00:49:00,360
Speaker 2: spots that I might end up playing, Like here, Oregon

991
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 2: is in a tough spot. Like do we see these

992
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 2: teams that the top ten games the week after they

993
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:07,919
Speaker 2: usually come out flat as big favorites. They're going out

994
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 2: to Rutgers to throw and travel with lean Rodgers at

995
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 2: over seventeen. Ohio State, they're at Wisconsin, they're laying over,

996
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 2: They're laying twenty four and a half. Can I actually

997
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 2: play Wisconsin.

998
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 1: It's getting powerful?

999
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 2: Probably not? But Ohio State number one is a snail

1000
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:25,880
Speaker 2: number two, Like do they really want to run it

1001
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 2: up on Fickle?

1002
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 1: You know that the alum he's like, he's like the

1003
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 1: closest cousin of the of the Ohios program and the

1004
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:32,319
Speaker 1: coaching ranks.

1005
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 2: Probably not. And like Ohio State does this smart thing

1006
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 2: that they usually like practice, like load management, So like

1007
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 2: they get a big lead, like and they're going to

1008
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:43,840
Speaker 2: be slow. Wisconsin's be running it and slow. So it

1009
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:46,920
Speaker 2: just could be like a Ohio State not really caring

1010
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 2: that much to want to get huge margin and they

1011
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 2: win in a low scoring game. I just don't know

1012
00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 2: if I can bring myself to bring them the same

1013
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:57,319
Speaker 2: thing with Michigan State after that pathetic effort last week,

1014
00:49:57,360 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: and I get myself to play them against Indiana. Indiana

1015
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 2: off that huge win, you know, come home, play Michigan State.

1016
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,359
Speaker 2: Can you win by their like you don't even need

1017
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:08,320
Speaker 2: to get margin anymore? Like they're they prove themselves so

1018
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:10,720
Speaker 2: like is Signetti the same way that he's been before.

1019
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 2: I don't know that number is too high for your

1020
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,400
Speaker 2: numbers base. But can I play Michigan State and then

1021
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 2: their quarterback might be out, they might get a couple

1022
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:19,839
Speaker 2: of guys I thought we're gonna get back last week

1023
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,719
Speaker 2: on defense, I don't know. That's a tough spot though.

1024
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 2: And then here's too I'll probably play that are ugly

1025
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:28,840
Speaker 2: and we didn't even get the trash yet. Florida Atlantic

1026
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 2: and UAB, they play us F and Memphis. I make

1027
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:36,880
Speaker 2: them under three touchdowns. They're catching over three touchdowns. USF

1028
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:40,360
Speaker 2: and Memphis play each other next week in a huge game.

1029
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 1: Power rate. That a seven point favorite for Memphis at home.

1030
00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:46,400
Speaker 1: That's bigger than I thought it would be.

1031
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,279
Speaker 2: Oh no, I'm at A like pick, We're way off there.

1032
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:52,439
Speaker 2: I'm not a believe in this Memphis team who guys

1033
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 2: covered every game. But here's the thing, USF. I think

1034
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 2: that the market that'll be three though with that's spread'llbe

1035
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 2: Memphis Finess three. But like FAU, the both of those

1036
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:04,439
Speaker 2: FAU and U A B have the offense is to score.

1037
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 2: They also have the offenses to get in the back door.

1038
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 2: So and UAB did not like Dolpher from everything I've

1039
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:13,759
Speaker 2: heard the players, so maybe there's like a bump there.

1040
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 2: Off it's a coordinator taken over and he was the

1041
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:20,479
Speaker 2: play caller anyway, So massive backdoor opportunity to if needed

1042
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 2: in that game. With two offenses who can score and

1043
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 2: two teams that are in, I mean that it's a

1044
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 2: bad spot for USF. Coming off that huge win over

1045
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:29,719
Speaker 2: North Texas. You have Memphis on deck. I know that

1046
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 2: last year Goali Ish ran it up and you know

1047
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:35,879
Speaker 2: had that handshake with Tom Herman. But the year before

1048
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 2: Herman was running it up. Like, I don't think there's

1049
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:41,720
Speaker 2: any bad blood here. So I might look at UAB

1050
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 2: and FAU, but they're ugly. By the way, the action

1051
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 2: never cap it's free and if you were a new year,

1052
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 2: and you do not have it. You are missing the

1053
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 2: full BBOC betting experience. Never missed a vent from myself,

1054
00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 2: Colin Duck, the whole squad. Just go to Action network

1055
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 2: dot com slash pro. Speaking of Duck, make sure you

1056
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 2: check out the Group of five episode. It's already out

1057
00:52:03,200 --> 00:52:05,920
Speaker 2: comes out on Wednesdays with him and Calbarys. They always

1058
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:09,440
Speaker 2: do a great job. All right, it's time for some

1059
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 2: trash the trash man pick of the week. I'm the

1060
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 2: trash man. Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and

1061
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 2: you know it, totally unreliable, undependent, whether that's it, you've

1062
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 2: been told off? How do you like that?

1063
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 1: Good?

1064
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 2: All right, we are primed for a big week. I

1065
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 2: mean we've just been having a good year promoted the

1066
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 2: trash specifically, it has been treading water. Let's have a

1067
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 2: big week. We got five starting off of Air Force. Yep,

1068
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:36,760
Speaker 2: we're laying points to the worst defense in the country

1069
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:40,359
Speaker 2: that's allowing eight or eight yards for play. Here's the thing.

1070
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 2: Air Force is a great spot. They're one in five.

1071
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 2: They really their defense has been bad. They can't cover

1072
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:48,320
Speaker 2: anyone in the secondary. The run defense isn't terrible. But

1073
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 2: look who they've lost to, Navy, UNLV, Utah State, Boise State.

1074
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:57,880
Speaker 2: These are all like top fifty schedule adjusted offenses, so

1075
00:52:58,120 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 2: their defense is bad. But this will be a break

1076
00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:02,399
Speaker 2: for them. Wyoming's outside the top one hundred. They don't

1077
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:04,719
Speaker 2: have a ton of receivers, their tight ends are all hurt.

1078
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:09,360
Speaker 2: Is Wyoming going to score? Yes? Can they match this

1079
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 2: electric air Force offense probably my favorite in the country

1080
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 2: to watch. No, I don't think so. Air Force at

1081
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 2: Home gets it done. Desperate for their first FBS win Wyoming.

1082
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 2: Last week they put up thirty five. Who was they

1083
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 2: were getting blown out, They were about to get blown out.

1084
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 2: San Jose State misses two field goals, gets hurt.

1085
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's like Turnover City too. Yeah.

1086
00:53:34,040 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 2: And then there was a pick six another turn hunt

1087
00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:39,360
Speaker 2: return touch like it was a joke. They can't keep up.

1088
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 2: This air Force offense is the electric It's called it

1089
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:47,439
Speaker 2: forty one thirty one air Force.

1090
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 1: I'm not I make a five, so I'm not going

1091
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:51,759
Speaker 1: to join you, but I am going to play air

1092
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 1: Force Team totally. I like the over end this game.

1093
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:55,360
Speaker 1: Don't know if Wyoman can hold their apart, but no

1094
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 1: air Forces offense can so.

1095
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:01,880
Speaker 2: Air force offense is electric. We're gonna go ul Monroe

1096
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 2: against Troy. Ul Monroe. Look, Troy has won three straight.

1097
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 2: They beat Buffalo down seventeen nothing in the fourth quarter

1098
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 2: when Buffalo's quarterback got hurt. They scored twenty one straight late.

1099
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 2: Then they've won two straight, both in overtime against South Alabama,

1100
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 2: who was one win in Texas State, who can't win

1101
00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:24,040
Speaker 2: a game as a favorite. And by the way, those

1102
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:26,880
Speaker 2: are two of the ten wars defenses in the country.

1103
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:30,920
Speaker 2: The ULM defense has actually been decent. They've been really

1104
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 2: good on early downs, really unlucky on late downs. There's

1105
00:54:34,040 --> 00:54:37,839
Speaker 2: some potential regression coming there. Tucker Kilcrease was amazing last week,

1106
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:40,399
Speaker 2: but for most of the season he's been unplayable. I'm

1107
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 2: not buying it. Ulm is gonna grind the game down

1108
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:46,279
Speaker 2: to a halt. I am worried about their special teams.

1109
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:48,400
Speaker 2: They're really bad, but they're gonna run the ball against

1110
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:51,160
Speaker 2: his bad Troy run defense. This is a good spot

1111
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:54,719
Speaker 2: for ULM off two straight losses. I make this, you know,

1112
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:57,399
Speaker 2: closer to a field goal than six. I think there's

1113
00:54:57,480 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 2: value in the Warhawks. Give me ul Monroe.

1114
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:01,640
Speaker 1: I make at five, So I love the six. I'm

1115
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 1: on the board with you if you want to go

1116
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 1: into the numbers. ULM has a pretty i mean, top

1117
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:09,240
Speaker 1: forty in defensive rushing success rate. The Troy offense is broken.

1118
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:11,640
Speaker 1: But more importantly, what sticks out on the stat sheet

1119
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:15,200
Speaker 1: ULM is third an offensive rush EPA and thirteenth and

1120
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 1: pass EPA Nationally. This team is like, like, no first downs.

1121
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 1: They'll probably have more explosive plays than first downs, if

1122
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 1: that's even possibly. Yeah, it is because they scored touchdowns.

1123
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 1: But no, this team is all about EPA here, not

1124
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 1: about success rates. So that's something that Troy's gonna have

1125
00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 1: a real problem with.

1126
00:55:32,920 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the MAC and we're gonna

1127
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:40,960
Speaker 2: go with Central Michigan against Bowling Green. Bowling Green last

1128
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:43,839
Speaker 2: week upsets leader there on twenty one nothing. They were

1129
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 2: zero and seventy five over the past twenty years and games.

1130
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:48,799
Speaker 2: When they trailed by twenty one plus, how'd that happen?

1131
00:55:49,040 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 2: They had a fluke screen touchdown at the end of

1132
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:53,520
Speaker 2: the half, They had a fumble at the one. They

1133
00:55:53,560 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 2: stopped Toledo a couple times inside the twenty. They had

1134
00:55:56,120 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 2: a trick play touchdown. They were out gained by more

1135
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 2: than two hundred yards, and you know eighty of them

1136
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:05,360
Speaker 2: came on a trick play wide receiver pass Lucian Anderson

1137
00:56:05,680 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 2: is really bad. I don't think Drew Pine is gonna play.

1138
00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 2: I think it's like a field goal drop off to Anderson.

1139
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 2: He just can't complete a fullward pass the Central Michigan.

1140
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 2: Both these teams are slow, run heavy. They're better at

1141
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:23,240
Speaker 2: defending the run than the pass. Bowling Green cannot exploit

1142
00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:25,560
Speaker 2: the Central Michigan secondary and one of the reasons I

1143
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:28,040
Speaker 2: played Bowling Green last week, new roster, new staff. They

1144
00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:31,799
Speaker 2: were coming off of buye against Toledo. Well, now Central

1145
00:56:31,840 --> 00:56:35,319
Speaker 2: Michigan's coming off of a bye very diverse run game.

1146
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:38,239
Speaker 2: The offensive line has struggled a bit, but drinkle on

1147
00:56:38,520 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 2: during the by can fix some of those issues. I

1148
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 2: think they're gona come out with a new wrinkles like

1149
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:46,360
Speaker 2: this is just an ugly game. Two similar teams that

1150
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 2: profiles similarly. I think this just this will come down

1151
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 2: to like a fluke jarnover. I know think there's much

1152
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:55,600
Speaker 2: difference between these teams, and it's mac home field, which

1153
00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 2: is generally completely overvalued by the market. I mean since

1154
00:56:58,120 --> 00:56:59,960
Speaker 2: two thousand and five MAC home teams in league play

1155
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:02,920
Speaker 2: forty six percent. If you are one hundred dollars better

1156
00:57:02,920 --> 00:57:04,600
Speaker 2: and you bet every MAC home team in league play,

1157
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:07,719
Speaker 2: you'd be down over ten thousand dollars. And among all

1158
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:10,279
Speaker 2: MAC teams, no team has cost better is more than

1159
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:13,920
Speaker 2: Bowling Green twenty seven and fifty against the spread at

1160
00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:16,880
Speaker 2: home in MAC games thirty five percent, failing to cover

1161
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 2: by over four points per game. Unbelievably, they're one in

1162
00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 2: fourteen against the spread. Is a short home favorite of

1163
00:57:23,160 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 2: six or less six point seven percent. Give me the chips,

1164
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 2: Fire up chips.

1165
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:30,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can put the chips on the board with me. Well,

1166
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:33,000
Speaker 1: we'll agree on that. Bowling Green, who is a run

1167
00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:35,720
Speaker 1: first team, is going to go up against a Central

1168
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:39,040
Speaker 1: Michigan defense that is twenty seventh and limiting rush explosives.

1169
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 1: There's some advantages in the rushing attack the Central Michigan

1170
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:45,200
Speaker 1: has from a run concept perspective, and they run the

1171
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:47,880
Speaker 1: ball seventy percent of the time. It's it's kind of

1172
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:49,480
Speaker 1: fun to watch when they get going. But uh yeah,

1173
00:57:49,520 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 1: definitely Central Michigan here.

1174
00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 2: All right, we're gonna go Purdue at Northwestern. I think

1175
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:56,480
Speaker 2: we're just getting some inflation in the market at the

1176
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 2: Northwestern's huge win over the Corps of Penn State, meanwhile,

1177
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 2: has been so unlucky. Like against Illinois, they didn't have

1178
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:04,440
Speaker 2: their cap, the senior captain in the back end. There

1179
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 2: was some coverage bus but from a success rate standpoint,

1180
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:09,760
Speaker 2: they were much better than Illinois. They were just unlucky.

1181
00:58:09,760 --> 00:58:13,480
Speaker 2: They had two fumbles in that game. Last week against Minnesota,

1182
00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 2: they should have won that game fifty different ways, but

1183
00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 2: they had two hundred more yards in Minnesota, but they

1184
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 2: were minus three and turnovers and including a pick six

1185
00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:24,200
Speaker 2: that won the game for Minnesota in the fourth quarter.

1186
00:58:25,160 --> 00:58:28,160
Speaker 2: They've lost four straight, three against ranked teams. They were

1187
00:58:28,320 --> 00:58:32,200
Speaker 2: negative minus nine turnover margin in those games. It's time

1188
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:35,040
Speaker 2: to buy this. This to me is a coin flip game.

1189
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:37,880
Speaker 2: I think produced a better team. They're also their run

1190
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:41,120
Speaker 2: defense has been outstanding and that's what Northwestern wants to do.

1191
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:46,000
Speaker 2: And if the Preston Stone turnovers are coming. Among one

1192
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 2: hundred and two quarterbacks with at least one hundred and

1193
00:58:47,880 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 2: fifty dropbacks, he has the second highest turnover worthy play rate,

1194
00:58:51,200 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 2: only behind Malachi Nelson, who's now benched at Utah. Ryan

1195
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:58,920
Speaker 2: Brown's been good the Boilers should get their ground game

1196
00:58:59,000 --> 00:59:01,600
Speaker 2: going in Northwest. Since run Dey's allowing five yards per

1197
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:05,400
Speaker 2: carry one hundred and tenth Perdue is that four yards

1198
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:08,960
Speaker 2: per carry? I think this is a coin flip for

1199
00:59:09,080 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 2: what it's worth. Following an upset of as an underdog

1200
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:15,560
Speaker 2: of twenty plus points, home conference favorites are just nine

1201
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 2: and nineteen against the spread since two thousand and five,

1202
00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:20,200
Speaker 2: failing to cover by about six points per game on average.

1203
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:25,000
Speaker 1: Give me Purdue nice fourteen points by uteb in the

1204
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:29,640
Speaker 1: fourth quarter last night. I disagree. I'm not going to

1205
00:59:29,680 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 1: go head to head with you, but you know, I

1206
00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:33,920
Speaker 1: don't know if I'm even going to play in Northwestern.

1207
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 1: I do think it too. It's gone down a little

1208
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:39,960
Speaker 1: bit too far. There is a massive, massive problem between

1209
00:59:40,000 --> 00:59:42,920
Speaker 1: Northwestern being a top twenty team and quality drives and

1210
00:59:43,040 --> 00:59:45,680
Speaker 1: Perdue being a bottom twenty team and quality drive. So

1211
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:49,080
Speaker 1: that tells me that Northwestern at fifty eight percent run right,

1212
00:59:49,080 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 1: they're going to be able to hold onto this ball

1213
00:59:50,560 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 1: as long as they want and control the clock here.

1214
00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 1: So I'm a little bit uncomfortable backing Purdue, especially the

1215
00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 1: number that I make four and a half.

1216
00:59:58,320 --> 01:00:01,760
Speaker 2: I'm a true coin flip here down the two. Yeah, yeah,

1217
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:03,360
Speaker 2: I need to, I need, I do need. We like

1218
01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 2: three there. Two would be very small play if you

1219
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:09,840
Speaker 2: didn't bet it from the app already. Last one, let's

1220
01:00:09,880 --> 01:00:14,200
Speaker 2: go in my backyard. Cats Kentucky. Yes, I consider them

1221
01:00:14,280 --> 01:00:18,040
Speaker 2: trash plus thirteen you can get out there against Texas.

1222
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:20,240
Speaker 2: At first of all, it's a tough spot for Texas.

1223
01:00:20,920 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 2: Stoops has been really bad off the buye, which is

1224
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:25,720
Speaker 2: my one concern. I mean, he's been horrendous. He's four

1225
01:00:25,760 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 2: and thirteen against the spread. I think three and twelve

1226
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 2: against the spread with extra prep against SEC teams. But

1227
01:00:32,760 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 2: Texas over the past ten years is usually the week

1228
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:37,960
Speaker 2: after the Oklahoma game. They come out a bit flat.

1229
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:41,080
Speaker 2: I think the buy should be very helpful for Cutter

1230
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:44,280
Speaker 2: Bowli and this Kentucky team. I've heard good things about

1231
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:46,600
Speaker 2: the practice. I know there's a lot of rumors at Steukes,

1232
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:48,080
Speaker 2: but I know a ton of people that are close

1233
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: to the program. I've heard that the practice have gone

1234
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 2: really well. But this is more about Texas. Do I

1235
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:56,120
Speaker 2: think the offense is fixed? No? Last week they got up,

1236
01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:59,560
Speaker 2: they scored twenty three, they had a plunt return for

1237
01:00:59,600 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 2: a touch down, and they got Materier throwing picks all

1238
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:05,040
Speaker 2: over the place. I mean, there's still issues on the

1239
01:01:05,080 --> 01:01:08,400
Speaker 2: offensive line. Art still has issues in consistency and accuracy.

1240
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 2: I mean, he's out of one hundred and thirty four

1241
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:15,000
Speaker 2: qualified quarterbacks, he's ninety first in adjusted completion percentage. He

1242
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:18,400
Speaker 2: has more turnover worthy plays than big time throws despite

1243
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:21,479
Speaker 2: twelve to five touchdown interception ratio, and if you remove

1244
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 2: the blot win over Sam Houston, arguably the worst team

1245
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:27,240
Speaker 2: in the country. Texas has only averaged twenty one point

1246
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:31,320
Speaker 2: eight offensive points per game despite countless short fields like

1247
01:01:31,400 --> 01:01:34,280
Speaker 2: every week they've only put in those five games, they've

1248
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:36,720
Speaker 2: only put together four touchdown drives of at least sixty

1249
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:39,920
Speaker 2: yards in non garbage time, and that includes games against

1250
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:42,920
Speaker 2: UTEP in San Jose State. So what's Kentucky gonna do.

1251
01:01:43,040 --> 01:01:44,680
Speaker 2: They're gonna play a ton of zone coverts. They're going

1252
01:01:44,720 --> 01:01:46,760
Speaker 2: to take away the explosive play, and they're going to

1253
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:49,120
Speaker 2: force Manning and by the way, Manning a struggle to

1254
01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:50,960
Speaker 2: get zone so far and reading defense. They're going to

1255
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:53,560
Speaker 2: force this Texas offense, which is broken, to work it

1256
01:01:53,640 --> 01:01:56,040
Speaker 2: methodically down the field. And if they do, then they're

1257
01:01:56,040 --> 01:01:57,960
Speaker 2: gonna have to punch it in the red zone where

1258
01:01:58,000 --> 01:02:01,440
Speaker 2: they've struggled for years. So this is just too many points.

1259
01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 2: Like Texas probably wins an ugly one. Like the Texas offense,

1260
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 2: who has played an easier schedule than Kentucky. Kentuck's played

1261
01:02:08,880 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 2: one of the toughest schedules in the country. They're converting

1262
01:02:11,120 --> 01:02:14,600
Speaker 2: third downs at like thirty nine percent. That's the same

1263
01:02:14,640 --> 01:02:19,120
Speaker 2: as Kentucky. Kentucky's played the tougher schedule. Now that you're look,

1264
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:21,080
Speaker 2: this should be a lower scoring game. Kentucky has the

1265
01:02:21,120 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 2: better special teams to give me the near two touchdowns

1266
01:02:24,120 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 2: in my back pocket.

1267
01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:26,560
Speaker 1: I don't blame I'm not.

1268
01:02:26,600 --> 01:02:29,600
Speaker 2: Just scare into Texas. There's always one a year, one

1269
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:32,360
Speaker 2: or two a year where like Kentucky's gonna have the

1270
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 2: ball with a chance to win late at home, understood,

1271
01:02:35,520 --> 01:02:37,200
Speaker 2: sometimes it's on the road. This is the spot I

1272
01:02:37,280 --> 01:02:37,800
Speaker 2: think I.

1273
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:40,320
Speaker 1: Would join you maybe if it was thirteen. There's there's

1274
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 1: other things in the stat box here that, like, you know,

1275
01:02:44,200 --> 01:02:46,640
Speaker 1: like they're just not favorable for Texas. Here one hundred

1276
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:49,320
Speaker 1: and seventeenth in penalties, I mean, you were so undisciplined.

1277
01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:51,840
Speaker 1: They're still outside the top one hundred offensive finishing drives.

1278
01:02:51,880 --> 01:02:53,280
Speaker 1: I don't think that's ever going to get fixed in

1279
01:02:53,280 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 1: the Steve Starkesian area. Think about this. For all the

1280
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:58,920
Speaker 1: Lamborghinis and the money that you're paying this offensive line,

1281
01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:01,320
Speaker 1: you're one hundred and second offensive stuff right, and your

1282
01:03:01,440 --> 01:03:03,960
Speaker 1: your center, Cole Hudson is out for this game, you know,

1283
01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:06,400
Speaker 1: And you're right, they're they're gonna they're gonna play as

1284
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:09,120
Speaker 1: many deep quarters and cover three as they can, and they're.

1285
01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:10,800
Speaker 2: Gonna run the ballt on. They're gonna take everyone kicking

1286
01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:12,440
Speaker 2: off the playcloff. They're just going to shorten this game

1287
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:12,840
Speaker 2: to the mess.

1288
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:15,680
Speaker 1: This Texas offense is such a disappointment. This whole Texas

1289
01:03:15,720 --> 01:03:19,080
Speaker 1: team is such a disappointment. But when the defense is good, yeah, yeah,

1290
01:03:19,120 --> 01:03:19,880
Speaker 1: the defense is good.

1291
01:03:19,960 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 2: But all right, Colin talking Arkansas.

1292
01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:27,920
Speaker 1: Woo pig Sully absolute dumpster fine. I don't know how

1293
01:03:27,960 --> 01:03:29,520
Speaker 1: we win a game the rest of the year. Just

1294
01:03:29,600 --> 01:03:32,640
Speaker 1: blow the program up, give us a death sentence. Collins

1295
01:03:32,720 --> 01:03:36,400
Speaker 1: talking razorback football dog at.

1296
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 2: Home against Texas A and m Leveon Moss is out

1297
01:03:39,720 --> 01:03:43,080
Speaker 2: for TEXAAN and that might hurt their their run game. Look,

1298
01:03:43,480 --> 01:03:46,080
Speaker 2: you know where this you you have a you know

1299
01:03:46,160 --> 01:03:49,479
Speaker 2: the pulse, Yeah, program, I want to take the seven

1300
01:03:49,520 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 2: and a half. There's the Arkansas offense is playing too well.

1301
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 2: There's also so many avenues to a back door. They

1302
01:03:55,560 --> 01:03:57,280
Speaker 2: should have beat Look, they should have beat Ole Miss,

1303
01:03:57,360 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 2: they should have won at Tennessee. Like, I feel like

1304
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:03,720
Speaker 2: the offfense can keep up and if they're down fourteen,

1305
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:05,960
Speaker 2: they're down ten late and give the back door easily.

1306
01:04:06,320 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 1: I one hundred percent agree. But the problem on the board, Yeah,

1307
01:04:10,080 --> 01:04:11,280
Speaker 1: we can put on the board of seven and a half.

1308
01:04:11,280 --> 01:04:12,840
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to go up. I definitely

1309
01:04:12,840 --> 01:04:14,480
Speaker 1: don't think it's going up to eight or nine. I

1310
01:04:14,560 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 1: think for anything, it'll go down. So let's put up

1311
01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:18,360
Speaker 1: there at seven and a half. What I've been waiting

1312
01:04:18,440 --> 01:04:20,640
Speaker 1: on is the weather here in Fayeteville, Like we're expecting

1313
01:04:20,720 --> 01:04:23,960
Speaker 1: some massive thunderstorms to roll through that could definitely in

1314
01:04:24,000 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 1: the morning. The morning is just going to be there's

1315
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:28,080
Speaker 1: not going to be any tailgating going on down at

1316
01:04:28,160 --> 01:04:30,959
Speaker 1: Donald W. Reynolds because it's going to be some pretty

1317
01:04:30,960 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 1: bad storms lightning scattered by the time we have kickoff here.

1318
01:04:35,080 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 1: The defense is unbelievably improved from the standpoint of effort

1319
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:42,040
Speaker 1: and all I'm here, I mean, think about this Campbell

1320
01:04:42,080 --> 01:04:45,040
Speaker 1: our nose was getting into fights with the volunteers offensive

1321
01:04:45,080 --> 01:04:47,240
Speaker 1: line when if we had any kind of want to

1322
01:04:47,320 --> 01:04:49,840
Speaker 1: do will to do anything where we're getting in fights

1323
01:04:49,840 --> 01:04:52,919
Speaker 1: with offensive line. So the sentiment from every defensive player

1324
01:04:53,000 --> 01:04:55,520
Speaker 1: that I've read interviews from is that we finally have

1325
01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:58,480
Speaker 1: a coach that believes in US. Defensive coordinator Chris Wilson

1326
01:04:58,920 --> 01:05:03,600
Speaker 1: has completely changed Patrino's making them go extremely fast. Patrino

1327
01:05:04,280 --> 01:05:06,640
Speaker 1: is I thought he might just enjoy this interim thing

1328
01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:09,120
Speaker 1: and kind of write it out. He's full asshole mode,

1329
01:05:09,480 --> 01:05:13,600
Speaker 1: like vocal yelling at people. He's dictator role right now

1330
01:05:13,720 --> 01:05:16,080
Speaker 1: on both sides of the ball, throwing people under the bus,

1331
01:05:16,240 --> 01:05:18,240
Speaker 1: just yelling at everybody. I mean, I think Patrino is

1332
01:05:18,240 --> 01:05:19,800
Speaker 1: just having the best time of his life right now.

1333
01:05:20,680 --> 01:05:23,240
Speaker 1: One thing that's kind of crazy, Arkansas's twelfth and pff

1334
01:05:23,360 --> 01:05:27,840
Speaker 1: tackling like they've really cleared that up. Another point for Arkansas.

1335
01:05:27,960 --> 01:05:30,720
Speaker 1: Patrino knows half this Texas A and m Roster. I mean,

1336
01:05:30,800 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 1: he just he spent like fifteen minutes talking about Leveon

1337
01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:34,720
Speaker 1: Moss and about how close he was with the kid

1338
01:05:34,760 --> 01:05:36,920
Speaker 1: when he was there as OC. That's only been two years.

1339
01:05:37,440 --> 01:05:39,840
Speaker 1: It's only been two years since he knew this roster completely.

1340
01:05:40,480 --> 01:05:42,560
Speaker 1: Texa and m is still struggling when they when teams

1341
01:05:42,600 --> 01:05:46,200
Speaker 1: cross the forty, their offense, their defensive finishing drives one

1342
01:05:46,320 --> 01:05:49,520
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty fourth. That's not good. So you know,

1343
01:05:49,720 --> 01:05:52,720
Speaker 1: Arkansas's offense right now is absolutely clicking, especially from an

1344
01:05:52,720 --> 01:05:55,000
Speaker 1: EPA and big play perspective, so I think they keep up.

1345
01:05:55,320 --> 01:05:57,560
Speaker 1: I'd like to know more about the weather, you know,

1346
01:05:57,600 --> 01:05:59,680
Speaker 1: because Arkansas's big weapon is on the ground with Mike

1347
01:05:59,800 --> 01:06:02,480
Speaker 1: Washer tailoring Green. But if it's just a complete downpour,

1348
01:06:04,120 --> 01:06:08,280
Speaker 1: that limits Casey, Concepcion and Craver getting down the field.

1349
01:06:08,880 --> 01:06:11,200
Speaker 1: But does it limit Tailor.

1350
01:06:11,040 --> 01:06:13,560
Speaker 2: Greg It wouldn't hurt her, wouldn't hurt or help either

1351
01:06:13,600 --> 01:06:14,240
Speaker 2: team too much?

1352
01:06:14,360 --> 01:06:17,000
Speaker 1: So thanks, So yeah, so I'm happy with the Artistas

1353
01:06:17,000 --> 01:06:17,680
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half.

1354
01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:19,919
Speaker 2: All right, before we get out of here, let's go three.

1355
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:24,440
Speaker 1: Now that's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts. Hey, let's

1356
01:06:24,480 --> 01:06:24,960
Speaker 1: go play some.

1357
01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:27,640
Speaker 2: Football ry Friday night lights. We got Louisville at Miami,

1358
01:06:27,720 --> 01:06:31,480
Speaker 2: Nebraska Minnesota, Santasee State at Utah State, North Carolina at

1359
01:06:31,840 --> 01:06:35,440
Speaker 2: Cal The only game I like Is, I like Louisville.

1360
01:06:36,400 --> 01:06:38,919
Speaker 1: I'll get this number at all. This thirteen, I don't

1361
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:39,160
Speaker 1: get it.

1362
01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:42,600
Speaker 2: I think, by the way, Chris Baull the one of

1363
01:06:42,600 --> 01:06:44,600
Speaker 2: the worst favorites in the country. I mean he's He's

1364
01:06:44,600 --> 01:06:46,440
Speaker 2: sixteen and twenty five against the start as a conference

1365
01:06:46,480 --> 01:06:50,720
Speaker 2: favorite more than a touchdown thirty nine percent. Brom Elie

1366
01:06:51,160 --> 01:06:54,880
Speaker 2: dog ten and four against the spread when with a

1367
01:06:54,960 --> 01:06:57,600
Speaker 2: cover margin of eight points per game on catching over

1368
01:06:57,640 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 2: a touchdown. He's nine and two against the spread on

1369
01:07:00,480 --> 01:07:03,680
Speaker 2: the road when catching more than a touchdown, five outright wins.

1370
01:07:04,520 --> 01:07:06,800
Speaker 2: The Louisville offense, I talked about this week's ago. I

1371
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 2: want them after the buye is a coaching mismatch. First

1372
01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:13,320
Speaker 2: of all, they need to get healthier on offense, which

1373
01:07:13,360 --> 01:07:16,800
Speaker 2: they should be here. The offensive line versus Miami's defensive

1374
01:07:16,800 --> 01:07:20,360
Speaker 2: line is concerning, But I think this is a peak

1375
01:07:20,480 --> 01:07:23,920
Speaker 2: Louisville game. Mario will mess it up somehow. Even if

1376
01:07:23,960 --> 01:07:27,400
Speaker 2: they build a lead, Louisville keeps this close. I think

1377
01:07:27,440 --> 01:07:29,480
Speaker 2: they put a scare into Miami. I like the Cardinals.

1378
01:07:29,560 --> 01:07:31,040
Speaker 1: You're missing a key point here is I make this

1379
01:07:31,160 --> 01:07:33,360
Speaker 1: number lower. I'm making nine, But I mean you're missing

1380
01:07:33,400 --> 01:07:37,200
Speaker 1: a key point here. Louisville lost to Virginia average one

1381
01:07:37,240 --> 01:07:42,760
Speaker 1: point four plus overall yards per game they by like seventeen.

1382
01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:46,000
Speaker 1: They lost that game with a ninety percent post game

1383
01:07:46,040 --> 01:07:48,520
Speaker 1: win expectancy, which I think is beefing this lineup.

1384
01:07:49,080 --> 01:07:52,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Miami's been so good, but like they got

1385
01:07:52,120 --> 01:07:54,600
Speaker 2: Calar in his first ever start. They have Florida when

1386
01:07:54,600 --> 01:07:57,560
Speaker 2: they were a mess South Florida and with the worst situations.

1387
01:07:57,160 --> 01:07:59,000
Speaker 1: For the home games to start the season, you're gonna

1388
01:07:59,000 --> 01:07:59,400
Speaker 1: look great.

1389
01:07:59,640 --> 01:08:01,440
Speaker 2: And we've we also seen how bad Florida State has

1390
01:08:01,480 --> 01:08:05,680
Speaker 2: looked at other games, like right, So yeah, I think Louisville.

1391
01:08:07,080 --> 01:08:09,200
Speaker 2: I think Louisville keeps this close.

1392
01:08:09,480 --> 01:08:11,560
Speaker 1: You're ready for Virginia to make the College for World Playoff.

1393
01:08:11,880 --> 01:08:14,040
Speaker 2: Oh, it should be. I can't believe Louisville lost that

1394
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:18,360
Speaker 2: game anything other any other games. Nebraska Minnesota, I would lean.

1395
01:08:18,400 --> 01:08:21,160
Speaker 2: San Jose stated over a field goal, the Utah State's

1396
01:08:21,160 --> 01:08:22,960
Speaker 2: offense been very good. That one should be back and forth.

1397
01:08:23,200 --> 01:08:25,760
Speaker 2: Nebraska Minnesota. I mean the Minnesota has been bad. That

1398
01:08:25,880 --> 01:08:28,639
Speaker 2: do I want to lay in Nebraska? Not really? North

1399
01:08:28,720 --> 01:08:31,320
Speaker 2: Carolina Cal actually lean Cal just North Carolina with their

1400
01:08:31,320 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 2: best winner. They can't get pressure. Do you have anything

1401
01:08:33,200 --> 01:08:33,679
Speaker 2: in those games?

1402
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:36,880
Speaker 1: Nebraska can defend outside zone, which is Minnesota is gonna run.

1403
01:08:37,040 --> 01:08:39,080
Speaker 1: They're forty four percent against it, and they're allowing a

1404
01:08:39,160 --> 01:08:41,639
Speaker 1: lot of explosives. So I think maybe that's the reason

1405
01:08:41,720 --> 01:08:45,519
Speaker 1: Minnesota has been taking some money down to seven. I

1406
01:08:45,720 --> 01:08:48,639
Speaker 1: did like Utah State until I looked up the numbers

1407
01:08:48,680 --> 01:08:51,240
Speaker 1: and saw that their defense is dead last and finishing

1408
01:08:51,320 --> 01:08:53,160
Speaker 1: drives and they're one hundred and thirty first in Havoc.

1409
01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:55,840
Speaker 1: They're essentially eleven lawn chairs out there lined up, so

1410
01:08:56,880 --> 01:08:58,760
Speaker 1: I can't get into that whatsoever. And then you and

1411
01:08:58,800 --> 01:09:02,080
Speaker 1: I talked about it like this, Calen, how far does

1412
01:09:02,120 --> 01:09:05,559
Speaker 1: this cow number go down until I want to take them?

1413
01:09:05,640 --> 01:09:07,720
Speaker 2: I mean, I'll take what is that now?

1414
01:09:08,200 --> 01:09:10,439
Speaker 1: Down to eight and a half DraftKings.

1415
01:09:10,280 --> 01:09:11,479
Speaker 2: Seven would definitely take them.

1416
01:09:12,120 --> 01:09:13,680
Speaker 1: I think that's our bypoint, all right.

1417
01:09:13,760 --> 01:09:16,240
Speaker 2: Second, doun favorite overdog, that's our favorite favorite.

1418
01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:17,400
Speaker 1: Called the overdog parlay.

1419
01:09:17,680 --> 01:09:19,920
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Air Force already talked about them.

1420
01:09:19,920 --> 01:09:22,840
Speaker 2: It's only favorite I've bet so far this week. You're

1421
01:09:22,920 --> 01:09:24,160
Speaker 2: rolling with your boy.

1422
01:09:24,240 --> 01:09:26,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna roll. I can say his name again.

1423
01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:29,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with billion Apier There is a problem

1424
01:09:29,960 --> 01:09:32,040
Speaker 1: with Mississippi State in the trench when they face defense

1425
01:09:32,120 --> 01:09:34,280
Speaker 1: is it can absolutely maul them. And that is exactly

1426
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:36,920
Speaker 1: what's going to happen here. This Florida defense is nasty.

1427
01:09:38,240 --> 01:09:41,280
Speaker 1: Don't see a lot of rushing success rate coming out

1428
01:09:41,280 --> 01:09:44,320
Speaker 1: of Mississippi State in this game. Their finishing drives number

1429
01:09:44,400 --> 01:09:47,400
Speaker 1: is going to be a problem. In the swamp Blackway

1430
01:09:47,439 --> 01:09:50,240
Speaker 1: continues to improve. I don't really pay attention to Georgia

1431
01:09:50,360 --> 01:09:53,400
Speaker 1: Florida's overall season numbers because they are getting better offensively

1432
01:09:53,479 --> 01:09:55,720
Speaker 1: every game. So I think Florida is gonna roll.

1433
01:09:56,000 --> 01:09:58,000
Speaker 2: Whenever you think Billion Aper is down and out, there's

1434
01:09:58,080 --> 01:10:00,400
Speaker 2: rumors about him being fired regardless, I don't know how

1435
01:10:00,479 --> 01:10:03,120
Speaker 2: that's gonna back. Whenever you count him out, that's when

1436
01:10:03,160 --> 01:10:03,920
Speaker 2: he's at his best.

1437
01:10:04,479 --> 01:10:06,639
Speaker 1: That gives him That's why you score an extra touchdown

1438
01:10:06,640 --> 01:10:07,840
Speaker 1: when you're playing Mississippi State.

1439
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:12,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's move on to our money line

1440
01:10:12,680 --> 01:10:20,679
Speaker 2: underdog parlay turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time

1441
01:10:20,920 --> 01:10:24,479
Speaker 2: for the money line parlay. I'm gonna roll the short

1442
01:10:24,520 --> 01:10:26,519
Speaker 2: one old dominion think of the better team. I'm not

1443
01:10:26,640 --> 01:10:28,000
Speaker 2: off them after last week, and I think they're the

1444
01:10:28,000 --> 01:10:29,639
Speaker 2: best team in the Belt. I've said that all year.

1445
01:10:30,040 --> 01:10:32,000
Speaker 2: They need this game after the loss last week. They

1446
01:10:32,040 --> 01:10:34,799
Speaker 2: lost the Marshall, but it was five turnovers. The JMU

1447
01:10:34,840 --> 01:10:36,400
Speaker 2: offense has kind of been stuck in the mud, and

1448
01:10:36,400 --> 01:10:38,880
Speaker 2: they played three of the worst defenses in the country

1449
01:10:38,880 --> 01:10:41,200
Speaker 2: over the past four weeks. I mean, this is a

1450
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:43,760
Speaker 2: team they were. They needed a liberty quarterback, injuries, a

1451
01:10:43,800 --> 01:10:45,840
Speaker 2: four point game in the fourth quarter. They needed a

1452
01:10:46,000 --> 01:10:49,760
Speaker 2: late touchdown to be Georgia State's fourteen to seven. It's

1453
01:10:50,240 --> 01:10:54,400
Speaker 2: the operation just hasn't looked great. I trust this old dominion.

1454
01:10:55,080 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 2: I trust Joseph. I think I had the better quarterback here,

1455
01:10:58,240 --> 01:11:01,040
Speaker 2: and I mean Ricky Ronnie road dog. I mean it,

1456
01:11:01,360 --> 01:11:03,920
Speaker 2: every single dime. He just covers a lot of times

1457
01:11:03,960 --> 01:11:06,240
Speaker 2: he wins. He sects sixteen and seven against the spread

1458
01:11:06,240 --> 01:11:09,160
Speaker 2: as a road dog seventy percent, covering by about eight

1459
01:11:09,240 --> 01:11:12,599
Speaker 2: points per game. He has got nine outright upsets. Old

1460
01:11:12,640 --> 01:11:15,360
Speaker 2: dominion look short travel here. I think they're the better

1461
01:11:15,439 --> 01:11:18,840
Speaker 2: team Classical league. Give me the Monarchs who have been better,

1462
01:11:18,960 --> 01:11:21,160
Speaker 2: like across the board EPA margin yards for play margin,

1463
01:11:21,200 --> 01:11:23,479
Speaker 2: and then they played the much tougher schedule. For what

1464
01:11:23,560 --> 01:11:26,120
Speaker 2: it's worth, if you've compared these two quarterbacks Barnett six

1465
01:11:26,240 --> 01:11:29,160
Speaker 2: to six big time throw to turnaver Worthy play rate

1466
01:11:29,560 --> 01:11:32,720
Speaker 2: sixty percent completion percentage with only a seven and a

1467
01:11:32,760 --> 01:11:36,800
Speaker 2: half A do Joseph fourteen to six big time throw

1468
01:11:36,840 --> 01:11:40,160
Speaker 2: to turnaver Worthy play rate sixty three percent completion percentage

1469
01:11:40,280 --> 01:11:42,840
Speaker 2: with a thirteen point eight A do I like the

1470
01:11:42,920 --> 01:11:43,760
Speaker 2: Monarchs where you go.

1471
01:11:44,080 --> 01:11:46,360
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go. Let's just dust off our gifts here.

1472
01:11:47,360 --> 01:11:49,280
Speaker 1: We're gonna go meet me. We're gonna go. Utsa. I

1473
01:11:49,280 --> 01:11:50,840
Speaker 1: wrote him up in the Havoc Play of the Week

1474
01:11:50,920 --> 01:11:53,840
Speaker 1: thirteenth nationally in habit for Utsa. That's bad news for

1475
01:11:53,920 --> 01:11:57,559
Speaker 1: quarterback Drew Mestamaker for North Texas. He was harassed, picked

1476
01:11:57,600 --> 01:12:01,880
Speaker 1: three times, had five quarterback hurries against USF. That's gonna

1477
01:12:01,880 --> 01:12:04,679
Speaker 1: happen again here. North Texas is a methodical drive team.

1478
01:12:04,760 --> 01:12:07,160
Speaker 1: Then they ran into I mean, their top thirty five

1479
01:12:07,240 --> 01:12:09,200
Speaker 1: nationally and methodical drives. They have a lot of quality

1480
01:12:09,280 --> 01:12:13,120
Speaker 1: drives to meet ten plus plays per possession. They produced

1481
01:12:13,160 --> 01:12:15,479
Speaker 1: only one in South Florida. Now they're getting a defense.

1482
01:12:15,479 --> 01:12:17,320
Speaker 1: It's just as good as doing all of that. And plus,

1483
01:12:17,439 --> 01:12:19,200
Speaker 1: when you look at North Texas numbers and people were

1484
01:12:19,240 --> 01:12:21,360
Speaker 1: thinking this could be the Group of five team their

1485
01:12:21,400 --> 01:12:23,240
Speaker 1: strength to schedules one hundred and twenty. First, I mean

1486
01:12:23,240 --> 01:12:24,840
Speaker 1: there's a lot of smoking mirrors going on in these

1487
01:12:24,920 --> 01:12:27,640
Speaker 1: numbers here. They cannot defend inside Zone, which is what

1488
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Speaker 2: That'll do it for us. We'll be back with our

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Speaker 2: recap episode Monday morning, featuring the best of your deranged

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Speaker 2: Gap live show ten thirty am Eastern on Saturday. Will

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Speaker 2: be back next week Thursday. Thanks to our producer David

1502
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Speaker 2: on the back end. Thanks to Colin for joining me.

1503
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Speaker 2: Most importantly, thanks to all of you for tuning in.

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Speaker 2: Make sure you subscribe on Scratchel, FriendZone Enemy leave a

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Speaker 2: Purdue and Kentucky Go Cats. Let's have a weekend. Catch

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Speaker 2: you all later. Cheers.

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