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Speaker 3: show for everybody today, Bro Show people Live for the Pound.
Speaker 1: Good to see you, Ryan, It is great to see you.
Speaker 3: We have a quadruple Bro show here. We've got Jeremy Scahill.
Speaker 3: He's going to join us in a little bit to
Speaker 3: break down the Israel Gaza ceasefire.
Speaker 1: We've got David Dayan in the house.
Speaker 3: He's going to break down vendor finance dot Com era
Speaker 3: vendors financing scheme that actually led to the crash and
Speaker 3: how it's all happening again, and he's actually legitimate expert
Speaker 3: on it. I'm excited to talk to him. We're going
Speaker 3: to break down some of the economy news. Very troubling
Speaker 3: APAC actually very interesting here Seth Moulton previously, how would
Speaker 3: you describe him, Ryan, He's like a national security He's
Speaker 3: like a normal debt.
Speaker 1: Yeah, right now, he's to the right of a normal
Speaker 1: deme even Yeah, good point.
Speaker 3: And he is declaring I will not take a single
Speaker 3: dollar from a pack, which just goes to show how
Speaker 3: much things have changed. The Epstein story, which we ran
Speaker 3: out of time yesterday because we were interviewing Shoycott Chakrabati.
Speaker 3: Actually we will break down entirely. There's some new memoir
Speaker 3: come out from Virginia Gouffrey, as well as a ton
Speaker 3: of new stories which has not gotten nearly enough attention
Speaker 3: about Epstein, his connections with the financial billionaires, with some
Speaker 3: of the new files that were released in the cover
Speaker 3: of Darkness on a Friday.
Speaker 1: They always released on Friday after how about that interesting
Speaker 1: right to do a colmic Politico called fishy Friday. Oh,
Speaker 1: I love that. I mean Friday newsum is a Washington tradition. Really,
Speaker 1: it really is, and sadly it does kind of work.
Speaker 1: It really does. Okay, Ukraine, important stuff going on with Ukraine.
Speaker 3: President Trump now appearingly to reverse course now saying Ukraine
Speaker 3: does need to accept the piece deal. We're gonna break
Speaker 3: down everything that's going on there, some fast moving things
Speaker 3: and a potential summit between a new summit between Trump
Speaker 3: and Putin in Budapest sometime on the horizon. And then
Speaker 3: Ryan and I are going to weigh in on marijuana,
Speaker 3: all right, so when Crystal is away, the boys will
Speaker 3: play right. And this is actually it's a landmark case
Speaker 3: between the United States Supreme Court where they will rule
Speaker 3: on whether marijuana users should be allowed to own and
Speaker 3: possess firearms. You should keep in mind that marijuana remains
Speaker 3: federally illegal and.
Speaker 1: So technically it is a violation of the law. And
Speaker 1: so you will all get to.
Speaker 3: See where I come down on that one, and we
Speaker 3: can discuss whether marijuana use is in fact addiction and
Speaker 3: does qualify.
Speaker 1: So I'm excited to get into this. They're really jamming
Speaker 1: me up. Yeah, are they going to make me?
Speaker 3: That's why I yes, you are, and I will I
Speaker 3: will be arguing for commons send s gun control. Right,
Speaker 3: Why would you want psychotic addicts to have guns? This
Speaker 3: is what the left has been begging for, right, Okay,
Speaker 3: so let's go ahead and get to Israel. Jeremy Scalehill
Speaker 3: standing by, Let's get him in here. I'm very excited
Speaker 3: now to be joined in studio by Jeremy Skalehill. Jeremy,
Speaker 3: we have a tradition here where we do a pound,
Speaker 3: so we have a triple pound.
Speaker 1: Man, that's too much going on? Well, we call it
Speaker 1: the bro Show, that's what that's what we call. So
Speaker 1: that's where we're fired up and we are ready to go.
Speaker 3: All right, So we wanted to go through all of
Speaker 3: the recent developments with Israel and the ceasefire, the breaking
Speaker 3: of the ceasefire, the unbreaking of the ceasefire by Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: Much of it comes down to, at the current moment,
Speaker 3: a hard position from the President and his team of no,
Speaker 3: we're going to try to do this. And so we
Speaker 3: had Steve wi Cooff and Jared Kushner give a joint
Speaker 3: interview to CBS sixty minutes.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to what they said, and then
Speaker 1: we're going to get a reaction.
Speaker 4: You decide to go to Gaza and what did you see?
Speaker 5: It looked almost like a nuclear bomb had been set
Speaker 5: off in that area. And then you see these people
Speaker 5: moving back, and I asked the idea of where are
Speaker 5: they going, Like, I'm looking around, these are all ruins,
Speaker 5: and they said, well, they're going back to the areas
Speaker 5: where they're destroyed. Home was onto their plot and they're
Speaker 5: going to pitch a tent. And it's very sad because
Speaker 5: you think to yourself, they really have nowhere else to go.
Speaker 4: Would you say, now having been there, that it was genocide?
Speaker 5: No, no, absolutely not no, No, there was a war
Speaker 5: being foot.
Speaker 4: But are you saying publicly right now that Hamas is
Speaker 4: acting in good faith seriously looking.
Speaker 1: For the Bible?
Speaker 5: As far as we've seen from what's being conveyed tests
Speaker 5: from the mediators, they are so far that could break
Speaker 5: down at any minute, But right now we have seen
Speaker 5: them looking to honor their agreement.
Speaker 1: So he says that they're looking to honor the agreement.
Speaker 3: Jeremy, what does that fit with some of your reporting
Speaker 3: and some of the other things that you know about
Speaker 3: behind the scenes.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think if you look at the
Speaker 6: actions of Israel versus the actions of Hamas since October
Speaker 6: tenth and the seasfire going into effect. Israel has continued
Speaker 6: its pattern of violating the ceasefire, not just by killing
Speaker 6: Palestinians and saying, oh, they cross this sort of fictitious
Speaker 6: line that the Israelis are now putting these huge yellow
Speaker 6: concrete blocks in continuing to kill as many as one
Speaker 6: hundred or more Palestinians. They're also not shipping in the
Speaker 6: agreed upon amount of food and other life essentials. I
Speaker 6: don't like the term aid because what Israel is doing
Speaker 6: is not just blocking humanitarian aid. They're blocking life essentials
Speaker 6: because they're in total control of what goes in and
Speaker 6: out of Gaza. So the Israelis always do this. They
Speaker 6: violate the ceasefire, they claim that it was for security reasons.
Speaker 6: On the other hand, Hamas's chief negotiator and its political leader,
Speaker 6: Khalil al Haya, gave a really interesting interview on Egyptian
Speaker 6: television yesterday in which he sounded like a season diplomat.
Speaker 6: When you compare the rhetoric of Hamas officials with that
Speaker 6: of Israelis Hamas is going out of its way to
Speaker 6: be very conciliatory about this. They're heaping praise on Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: They're saying that they're committed to the ceasefire. When allegations
Speaker 6: of violations happen, they try to address it right away.
Speaker 6: It was extraordinary to have the Cassam Brigades, Hamas's armed
Speaker 6: wing put out a statement in real time, almost like
Speaker 6: they have their own kind of pr operation like a
Speaker 6: Western government, where they're responding tit for tat to what
Speaker 6: Israel is saying, but they're not using belligerent language. When
Speaker 6: they're asked about the issue of disarmament, they remain firm
Speaker 6: and they say that that's a Palestinian issue and that
Speaker 6: we're not going to disarm. But they also say these
Speaker 6: are issues to be discussed in a broader Palestinian context.
Speaker 6: So what I would say is that when you hear
Speaker 6: Jared Kushner or Steve Whitkoff saying anything other than Hamas
Speaker 6: is the obstruction, even when Israel is accusing Hamasa being
Speaker 6: the obstruction, that's a market change from what we saw
Speaker 6: under Biden and also what we've seen at different points
Speaker 6: under the Trump administration.
Speaker 7: Yeah, that makes sense, and we have a two on disarmament,
Speaker 7: let's play, let's roll through that.
Speaker 1: And yet as soon as you left, Hamas executed seven
Speaker 1: people and then they went on to execute thirty more.
Speaker 1: Do you believe they really will disarm.
Speaker 8: Well, they promised they would, They said they it's down
Speaker 8: that they would. Now they said they were gang members,
Speaker 8: et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 7: You know, but.
Speaker 8: These are very violent people. This is a very violent
Speaker 8: part of the world. Nobody's seen violence like this. If
Speaker 8: we have to, will disarm the US, well, whether it's
Speaker 8: me or the US, or it's you know, a proxy
Speaker 8: could be Israel. With our back end, we won't have
Speaker 8: boots something around. There's no reason to.
Speaker 3: And you gotta love when Trump this says the quiet
Speaker 3: part out loud, that Israel is a proxy.
Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, one of our proxies.
Speaker 7: Now, when Kushner was asked about that by Leslie Stahl,
Speaker 7: he gave a much more nuanced answer. He said, well,
Speaker 7: you have to wait until this International Stabilization Force is
Speaker 7: up and operative because it's a population of a couple
Speaker 7: of million people and you need some sort of police force.
Speaker 7: It's like it's unusually kind of level headed and clear
Speaker 7: eyed from him, and so he was saying, effectively, we
Speaker 7: can ask Hamas to disarm until there's until We've gotten
Speaker 7: all the rest of our ducks in a row.
Speaker 1: So you are what are you.
Speaker 7: Reading from all of the different signals that are being
Speaker 7: sent about this.
Speaker 6: I mean, first of all, let's fly up to thirty
Speaker 6: thousand feet. When when Israeli officials talk about disarmament, they're
Speaker 6: actually not talking about arms. They're using that as a
Speaker 6: proxy for we want a full surrender of the Palestinian people.
Speaker 6: Right in a way, if you look at this just
Speaker 6: on a factual level, this is a total humiliation for Israel.
Speaker 6: If you actually look at facts, they're demanding that Hamas
Speaker 6: give up its arms.
Speaker 9: What arms?
Speaker 6: Most of it is either repurposed Israeli ordinance, homemade by
Speaker 6: the Engineering Corps of Hamas Battalion's sniper rifles. They have
Speaker 6: rocket propelled grenade launchers that either were bought on the
Speaker 6: black market from Israelis or that they've manufactured within Gaza.
Speaker 6: A massive modern military that is a is a killing
Speaker 6: machine in the region, has been unable to militarily defeat
Speaker 6: guys wearing flip flops and track suits. So on one level,
Speaker 6: this issue of disarmament, the world should sort of be saying,
Speaker 6: wait a minute, Israel's goal from the beginning has been
Speaker 6: the obliteration of Hamas and the disarmament of a Hamas.
Speaker 6: They've utterly failed to do it, even though they've killed
Speaker 6: tens of thousands of Palestinians in the process. Trump himself
Speaker 6: said that upwards of twenty thousand Cassam Brigade soldiers have
Speaker 6: been killed. The pre war estimates were between twenty and
Speaker 6: twenty five thousand of the Casam Brigades now US officials.
Speaker 6: I think it's really interesting that when you have Kushner
Speaker 6: and witcoffin Trump talking about this issue of the weapons,
Speaker 6: they seem to understand that there is a game that
Speaker 6: Israel is playing here and that the issue isn't actually
Speaker 6: the weapons themselves.
Speaker 9: It's a political question.
Speaker 6: And that's why I'll go back to Hamas's position. When
Speaker 6: they first responded to Trump, they broke his twenty point
Speaker 6: plan into two basic parts. The first part was, we
Speaker 6: the resistance holding the Israeli captives. We have the mandate
Speaker 6: to negotiate an end of the war, the resumption of
Speaker 6: delivery of life essentials, and the issue of Israeli troop withdrawals.
Speaker 6: But these other issues are political questions. Now Trump's people
Speaker 6: could have taken a hard line and said no, it's
Speaker 6: all or nothing, but they have it. Trump continues to misrepresent,
Speaker 6: according to Hamas's officials, what they actually said about disarmament.
Speaker 6: I suspect based on what sources within the Palestinian resistance
Speaker 6: have told me that when these discussions took place with
Speaker 6: Witkoff and Kushner, and I did speak to a source
Speaker 6: recently with direct knowledge of that conversation, what Khalil al
Speaker 6: Haya I'm told said to Witkoff and Kushner was we
Speaker 6: are open to disarmament in the context of the constitution
Speaker 6: of a Palestinian state and a Palestinian armed force. That
Speaker 6: is not a new position, but in the same way
Speaker 6: that Hamas was asking that Trump publicly announced an end
Speaker 6: to the war without any way of validating that or
Speaker 6: keeping it accountable. I think that there were those kinds
Speaker 6: of discussions at play, and so what Trump is representing
Speaker 6: is a dramatic oversimplification of the position Hamas has taken.
Speaker 6: But all Palestinian factions have said this clearly, armed ones,
Speaker 6: we will disarm in the context of merging our forces
Speaker 6: into a professional standing army, as has happened through history
Speaker 6: in these anti colonialist struggles.
Speaker 3: What's fascinating to me, Jeremy, is the White House is
Speaker 3: singularly representing Hamas as the problem, but also all of
Speaker 3: their indications are that Israel is a problem.
Speaker 1: So we have a New York Times article.
Speaker 3: I asked if we can put it up there on
Speaker 3: the screen or edit it in post production there it
Speaker 3: is the White House works to preserve Gaza deal amid
Speaker 3: concerns with Netanyahu. So not only did Steve Wikoff and
Speaker 3: Jared Kushner dispatched to Israel, but Vice President Vance is
Speaker 3: now wheels down in Tel Aviv. And apparently it's because
Speaker 3: of this. There are multiple White House officials going on
Speaker 3: background to the New York Times who say they are
Speaker 3: quote increasingly worried Netsan Yahu would dismantle the US broker disagreement.
Speaker 3: Vice President Vance, they're now actually trying to back up
Speaker 3: the two of them to deliver a message from the
Speaker 3: White House like, hey, we need this to stay together.
Speaker 3: But what they see behind the scenes was the immediate jump,
Speaker 3: let's say, with that unexploded ordinance, where Israel immediately lied
Speaker 3: about what happened. The only reason it got ranged is
Speaker 3: because the White House said, oh, we know that is
Speaker 3: that this wasn't a Hamas attack. We know this was
Speaker 3: unexploded ordinance, but that was a signal that this is all.
Speaker 3: This is what every single day of this is going
Speaker 3: to look like. And so with the White House trying
Speaker 3: to demand this of Netanyahu, how precarious do you see
Speaker 3: the current framework in the context of everything you just said.
Speaker 6: I think that we should understand Israel's position in this
Speaker 6: as netnya Who and others in the government trying to
Speaker 6: figure out how to exploit this and do a strategic
Speaker 6: repositioning in the short term. I think what we're seeing
Speaker 6: is the White House saying to netnya Who, we are
Speaker 6: not going to allow you to blow up this deal
Speaker 6: right now, and they're essentially I mean, I think Trump
Speaker 6: was right when he said that effectively he was saving
Speaker 6: Israel from itself. They were not succeeding militarily at anything
Speaker 6: except killing enormous numbers of children, intents, and starving people.
Speaker 6: I mean, they were unable to stop the insurgency. So
Speaker 6: what I think Trump and Vance are saying to Israel
Speaker 6: right now is your agenda is still there, let us
Speaker 6: go down this path.
Speaker 9: There's also the wild card we've discussed on this program.
Speaker 6: Before Trump, Kushner, Witcoff's son, all of these people in
Speaker 6: the inner circle have huge business entanglements with these Gulf states.
Speaker 6: And I think that the Article five like agreement that
Speaker 6: Trump made with Katar, this mutual defense back. Now, the Saudis,
Speaker 6: you know, are are saying, wait a minute, We've spent
Speaker 6: so many years kissing the boot, and where's our agreement.
Speaker 6: But what Trump is doing is quite interesting because I
Speaker 6: think that on one level, the greed, the business, the
Speaker 6: family connections, the security for his family businesses going forward,
Speaker 6: his legacy are causing problems for Netanyahu in the short term.
Speaker 6: But I would say we're in a perilous situation. Israel
Speaker 6: is still in pole position with their war of annihilation
Speaker 6: Netanyah who I think they just want to kind of
Speaker 6: discipline him a little bit, get the dog to come
Speaker 6: next to you and stand at your leg, and then
Speaker 6: when you tell him he can go back and attack
Speaker 6: whatever you order him to attack. That's essentially what I
Speaker 6: see happening right now. It's very dangerous for the future
Speaker 6: of the Palestinians right.
Speaker 1: Now, that makes sense. Yeah, so how how does this
Speaker 1: unfold from here?
Speaker 9: Yeah?
Speaker 6: You know, I was talking recently with some Palestinians who
Speaker 6: are very close to the negotiations, and I think from
Speaker 6: the Palestinian perspective, they want to widen the team that's
Speaker 6: negotiating this. There's some advantage to Netnya who having Hamas
Speaker 6: and Palestinian Islamic Jihad be the negotiators at the other
Speaker 6: end of the table. I've heard people mention, for instance,
Speaker 6: that Mustafa Bargutti, who is well known to Western audiences,
Speaker 6: a physician who speaks bluent English, goes on CNN, does
Speaker 6: not control an armed force, but has widespread recognition in
Speaker 6: Palestine and increasing popularity. He's never kicked the armed resistance
Speaker 6: under the bus from the moment October seventh started. But
Speaker 6: he also is someone that can deal with the European
Speaker 6: Union and other Western diplomats that I think what the
Speaker 6: Palestinians want now is to widen the circle of who's negotiating.
Speaker 6: They also have to navigate the fact that Mahmudabas, the
Speaker 6: extremely elderly, decrepit and corrupt head of the Palestinian authority,
Speaker 6: is not represented of the Palestinian people. While he was
Speaker 6: blocked from coming into the US to go to the
Speaker 6: United Nations, General Assembly. He was allowed to be on
Speaker 6: the sidelines of the Charmel Shaiks scam summit, but he
Speaker 6: wasn't a full participant. And I think that there's a
Speaker 6: way in which Israel, even though they say, oh, we
Speaker 6: don't want the Palestinian authority, they would prefer it because
Speaker 6: they've always gotten what they wanted there. So from the
Speaker 6: Palestinian perspective, I think they want as many different interests
Speaker 6: represented at the table because they feel like it is
Speaker 6: an existential question now for the future of Palestine. From
Speaker 6: the Yahoo's perspective, he wants to have Hamas and Islamic
Speaker 6: Jihad be the representatives of Palestine. And yes, Hamas is
Speaker 6: a very popular political entity within the fabric of Palestinian society,
Speaker 6: but they're not the only one. It's a pluralistic society
Speaker 6: with a diversity of views. So who's going to be
Speaker 6: on this technocratic committee is a big question. Is it
Speaker 6: going to just be a kind of discussion group that's
Speaker 6: overseen by, you know, the United States for all practical purposes,
Speaker 6: the Tony Blair thing. I don't know that that's actually
Speaker 6: going to happen, but it does seem Trump's intent on
Speaker 6: this questions about who's going to constitute this so called
Speaker 6: international security force.
Speaker 9: There was a piece in the New York Times this morning.
Speaker 6: I think a lot of nations are really concerned about that,
Speaker 6: especially Arab nations. The populations of all of these Arab
Speaker 6: golf nations in the broader Islamic world, they're furious that
Speaker 6: their governments did.
Speaker 9: Nothing about this. So then they're going to go and deploy,
Speaker 9: And I think that the concern.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I agree with your skepticists, and we've talked about
Speaker 6: this before, but like they're going to deploy and then
Speaker 6: either they're going to get killed and so called friendly
Speaker 6: fire incidents by Israel, raising questions about how their nations respond,
Speaker 6: or they essentially get co opted into becoming agents of
Speaker 6: Israeli repression.
Speaker 9: So the question of whether this is tenable is not
Speaker 9: just one.
Speaker 6: For like, the one of the Palestinians going to agree
Speaker 6: to Trump is in bed with all of these Arab
Speaker 6: golf countries on multiple levels, personal and business of the government.
Speaker 6: And you have a very vicious, insidious net Yahoo and
Speaker 6: his team on the sidelines trying to poke at whatever
Speaker 6: Trump is doing. And then you have the Palestinians who
Speaker 6: should be the most central voice, and yet they don't
Speaker 6: allow any Palestinians to participate in a so called peace
Speaker 6: summit about Palistinites.
Speaker 9: Crazy.
Speaker 3: I can't move away from everything you're talking about, which
Speaker 3: is and I brought this up every day civilian administration. So, Hamas,
Speaker 3: you know the war temporarily pauses. Yes, you know they're
Speaker 3: imposing some law and order. We may not like how
Speaker 3: it looks, but that's you know, that's what how they
Speaker 3: want to do it. Yeah, they brought it in and
Speaker 3: they shot people who they accused of being collaborators. I
Speaker 3: was like, yeah, that's what happens when you have a
Speaker 3: security vacuum. You literally blew this place and made it
Speaker 3: look like, in the words, a nuclear bomb went off.
Speaker 3: I didn't say that, Jared Kushner said that. And so
Speaker 3: what do you think is going to happen? And so
Speaker 3: the supposed civil administration, I believe all three of us
Speaker 3: are in this business literally because of the war in
Speaker 3: Iraq and Afghanistan.
Speaker 1: What did we all witness?
Speaker 3: We collapsed the government, the centralized authority, they broke into
Speaker 3: warlord faction, civil wars happened. We bore the responsibility. We're
Speaker 3: asking Hamas disarmament. How is that possible? Who is going
Speaker 3: to civil administer? You guys had a story recently just
Speaker 3: highlighting the issue. You guys estimate that nearly one million
Speaker 3: of Gaza's one point one million olive trees have been destroyed,
Speaker 3: a long time sector of their economy, not to mention
Speaker 3: just their tradition. So what is You know, the Arab
Speaker 3: nations are going to come in and do some coin counterinsurgency.
Speaker 3: It's not going to happen like so they're going to
Speaker 3: get blown up in crossfire. Not to mention unexploded ordinance.
Speaker 3: This is a war zone. How is anybody able to
Speaker 3: govern this if it is not the Palestinian Gazans themselves, which,
Speaker 3: of course the Israelis don't want to see.
Speaker 6: And remember, even up right up until the closing hours
Speaker 6: prior to the ceasefire, Israeli forces were going on a
Speaker 6: systematic arsen campaign and attacking basic infrastructure, water treatment facilities,
Speaker 6: as well as a further flattening of residential buildings, saying
Speaker 6: that they're terrorist infrastructure. We're talking about apartment buildings that
Speaker 6: they're not. Nown So Israel still has its eye on
Speaker 6: the goal of annihilation of Palestinians in Gaza. But the
Speaker 6: law and order, so to speak, that you're raising is
Speaker 6: a really vital question. Remember what happened when Bush and
Speaker 6: Cheney decided to overthrow Saddam Hussein's government. The most disastrous
Speaker 6: decision they made on a counter insurgency level was debathifications.
Speaker 6: They fired, you know, two hundred and fifty thousand Iraqi soldiers.
Speaker 9: And I remember so clearly.
Speaker 6: The late great journalist Anthony Shadid quoted an Iraqi official
Speaker 6: who had been in the Bath Party as saying, it
Speaker 6: was the day that a quarter of a million Iraqis
Speaker 6: joined the insurgency against the Americans, and you saw a
Speaker 6: massive uptick in the number of American bodies coming back.
Speaker 9: I predict that if they try.
Speaker 6: To de hamosify Gaza's institutions, which are largely civil institutions,
Speaker 6: including the police, including domestic intelligence, including the governance of
Speaker 6: courts and jails, et cetera, They're going to be begging
Speaker 6: for those people to come back to the work.
Speaker 1: They will.
Speaker 9: And so it was interesting to.
Speaker 6: Hear Trump, although he contradicts himself the next day, but
Speaker 6: he does seem to get it. And that's why he
Speaker 6: said at the beginning. Oh, we told them that they
Speaker 6: could do this for a period. I think that they're
Speaker 6: going to realize that there are multiple faces to Hamas,
Speaker 6: and one of them is governance. They were the only
Speaker 6: governing authority that any Palestinians in Gaza knew for two decades,
Speaker 6: and under incredibly different, difficult circumstances, they managed to keep
Speaker 6: basic civilian infrastructure going.
Speaker 9: Hamas officials have told me it.
Speaker 6: Was it became an albatross around our neck. We're under siege,
Speaker 6: the whole place is locked down. Our popularity was dropping
Speaker 6: because of governance issues. It's not because of the armed
Speaker 6: resistance that remains the number one most popular issue along
Speaker 6: with statehood for Palestinians, but on a governance level. So
Speaker 6: if they think they're just going to blow it all up,
Speaker 6: impose some foreign force, say oh, here's a new committee,
Speaker 6: but it's not really in charge.
Speaker 9: Who's in charge?
Speaker 6: Is this peace board that Trump said it's going to
Speaker 6: be a disaster, And they're going to come begging those
Speaker 6: technical experts that ran the government in Gaza and also
Speaker 6: won the last democratic election and say come back in.
Speaker 6: So I think we're going to see that if they
Speaker 6: try to impose it one thing is clear of Palestine's history,
Speaker 6: they are not going to accept foreign occupation. It's just
Speaker 6: not going to happen. The question is how does it
Speaker 6: get resisted. Do we have actual recognition of Palestinian rights
Speaker 6: or not. The world has never been more clear on
Speaker 6: what the Israeli project represents than now, and I think
Speaker 6: that was a key factor in why the Palestinian negotiators
Speaker 6: took this deal, even though it's a bad deal, because
Speaker 6: they recognize that the world is on their side. And
Speaker 6: that's why, in a way, it's more important for journalists
Speaker 6: and others to pay much more attention.
Speaker 9: Now than at any point.
Speaker 1: I totally agree with you.
Speaker 9: The future is up for grads.
Speaker 3: I completely agree because this is the post project of
Speaker 3: you know, immediate term was hostages, negotiation, ceasefire. Now it's
Speaker 3: the hard part. Yeah, did we win the war in Iraq?
Speaker 3: After mission accomplished that'? Actually when we lost the war
Speaker 3: in Iraq. That's what so many people failed to grasp.
Speaker 3: It's going to be a decade long problem.
Speaker 6: What can I make one one last point, just something
Speaker 6: that you said there on this issue of the exchange
Speaker 6: of captives. You look at the Israelis that have been
Speaker 6: released from Hamas's captivity, and they were held during scorched
Speaker 6: earth bombing, during a starvation campaign, and I think many
Speaker 6: of them, their physical appearance did not look like what
Speaker 6: people thought it was going to look like when they
Speaker 6: came out.
Speaker 9: You look then at the images.
Speaker 6: Of Palestinians, you know, where medical officials are saying that
Speaker 6: organs were surgically removed, where their bodies are charred, where
Speaker 6: there's ropes around their necks, where some of them have
Speaker 6: their hands tied behind their backs.
Speaker 1: You know, blindfolded, blindfolded.
Speaker 7: You see in the photos the bodies are like decayed,
Speaker 7: but you can see the blind hills and round the eyes.
Speaker 9: As we sit here in this studio in Washington, d C.
Speaker 6: Palestinians are gathered intents in Gaza watching monitors where medical
Speaker 6: examiners are putting pictures of the bodies of Palestinians that
Speaker 6: have been returned, and they're doing close ups of the
Speaker 6: teeth or of the hands, or of the clothing that
Speaker 6: was on these people. And they're gathering intents to try
Speaker 6: to say, see is that my son whose body part
Speaker 6: I'm looking at?
Speaker 9: You know, the sadistic nature sure of this.
Speaker 6: Israel is holding at least seven hundred and twenty Palestinian
Speaker 6: bodies that we know of one Palestinian political prisoner.
Speaker 9: Who died on hunger strike. His body's been held for
Speaker 9: forty five years.
Speaker 6: They still haven't released it, but there are current indications
Speaker 6: that there are as many as one thousand, five hundred bodies
Speaker 6: in addition to that that are being held. In the
Speaker 6: context of October seventh and the aftermath Palestinian bodies, Trump
Speaker 6: talks about the sickness of what kind of sick people
Speaker 6: hold dead bodies. It's a matter of state doctrine in
Speaker 6: Israel since nineteen sixty seven to hold Palestinian bodies.
Speaker 9: So the whole narrative.
Speaker 6: Whether you are a maga person in this country, or
Speaker 6: you're a Democrat, or you're a leftist or you're a rightist,
Speaker 6: all of us should recognize there are two standards that
Speaker 6: are being broadcast here right now, and it's a question
Speaker 6: of like, what are our values we're denouncing the I mean,
Speaker 6: the Palestinians are desperate to get the bodies of these
Speaker 6: Israeli captives back.
Speaker 9: This is a total liability for them. The Israelis are
Speaker 9: holding them in coolers and freezers in some cases for
Speaker 9: forty five years. Why don't we talk about that.
Speaker 7: And real quick paceince we have here on the I
Speaker 7: want to ask you about the West Bank because actually
Speaker 7: there was a video just this week of a man
Speaker 7: was killed in the West Bank and it was his
Speaker 7: wife or some family member kind of battled the IDF
Speaker 7: soldiers there to like grab his body, and Palestinians successfully
Speaker 7: prevented the Israelis from taking the body out of ambulance
Speaker 7: and back into Israel forty eight. But on Monday we
Speaker 7: also saw this viral video filmed by Jasper Nathaniel Graydon.
Speaker 7: We had him on our show yesterday, reporter who captured
Speaker 7: an image that is becoming kind of the masked face
Speaker 7: of Israel, which is this like thug settler with his
Speaker 7: with a giant stick over his head beating an elderly woman.
Speaker 1: And today Hen Mazig, I.
Speaker 7: Don't know if I'm pronouncing his name right, one of
Speaker 7: the Israeli propagandists out there, he reports Israeli Deputy Commissioner
Speaker 7: Moshe Pinche sent a message to other commanders ordering them
Speaker 7: to find and stop an Israeli man who had attacked
Speaker 7: and seriously injured an elderly Palstadian woman in the West
Speaker 7: Bank who had been out harvesting olives. He added, quote
Speaker 7: an image that kept me from sleeping. We will not
Speaker 7: be like our cruel enemies, unquote, and then he adds,
Speaker 7: this is the kind of moral clarity we need to
Speaker 7: maintain even through the darkest times. This is accountability. So
Speaker 7: is actually responding to the images of this violence, which
Speaker 7: is highly unusual. But what do you make of them
Speaker 7: getting off there, took us here and saying they're going
Speaker 7: to actually do something about this. What would you say
Speaker 7: about the moral clarity that's alleged here.
Speaker 6: The last two years of Israeli conduct has dramatically given
Speaker 6: lie to this mantra repeated by Democrats and Republicans that
Speaker 6: it's the only democracy in the Middle East. There's actually
Speaker 6: nothing democratic at all about Israeli society when you have,
Speaker 6: on the one hand, the stealing of people's land, the
Speaker 6: brutal beating and killing of Palestinians as you try to
Speaker 6: steal their land, the denial of full rights to people
Speaker 6: even that you say are your citizens who happened to
Speaker 6: be Palestinian. So you know, the the the entire project
Speaker 6: has been exposed as a lie. But what I would
Speaker 6: say is even when Israel gets caught on camera and
Speaker 6: caught on film, the actual accountability when it happens is minimal.
Speaker 6: You know, you had people who were filmed raping Palestinian
Speaker 6: prisoners and their defense in court that their lawyer offered
Speaker 6: was that it was they needed to rape him because
Speaker 6: it was self defense. You know, and and and you know,
Speaker 6: the Biden administration repeatedly got played on this. They would
Speaker 6: stand there at the State Department of Oh, well, Israel
Speaker 6: is doing an investigation. It never goes anywhere. There's never
Speaker 6: any actual consequences. What I would say about this beating
Speaker 6: video though, the Palestinian woman who was getting you know,
Speaker 6: beaten with a club for committing the crime of farming
Speaker 6: while Palestinian, is that what happens when we don't have
Speaker 6: video there. Yeah, that that's actually what matters, because when
Speaker 6: you hear, if you listen to Palestinians and what happens
Speaker 6: to them at the hands of the government in forest
Speaker 6: and backed settlers, it's it's an astonishing crime that has
Speaker 6: played out for decades. And you know, this is why
Speaker 6: so many Arab and Islamic states wanted this term in
Speaker 6: the Trump Plan, saying that there won't be any annexation
Speaker 6: of the West Bank, and then it was taken out
Speaker 6: the night before by you, Durmer and others meeting with
Speaker 6: Whitcoff because I think that is the agenda moving forward.
Speaker 6: You know that that speech in the kanesset of Trump
Speaker 6: was like watching a reverse Nuremberg trial where instead of
Speaker 6: facing justice, the criminals gather together and they congratulate each other.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 6: The the the guest of honor who should have been
Speaker 6: there was Joe Biden, who you know, the difference between
Speaker 6: Biden and Trump is Biden was a committed Zionist ideologue.
Speaker 9: Trump is transactional. You know.
Speaker 6: Trump will pay lip service to Marriam Adelson and the
Speaker 6: agenda of Zionism.
Speaker 1: It's you know, it's it's funny to him.
Speaker 9: Yeah, It's almost like he's saying, like, can you believe
Speaker 9: these fools? Believe me?
Speaker 6: It's sort of like the famous quote about Carl Rove
Speaker 6: talking about the Evangelicism night, you know, where it's basically
Speaker 6: they reckoned that they could get them as a as
Speaker 6: a voting block, you know, with the radical rise of
Speaker 6: the radical religious right. In a way, I think that's
Speaker 6: kind of how Trump is toward Israel. I don't think
Speaker 6: he cares one way or the other. I don't think
Speaker 6: he's actually like a committed Zionist in.
Speaker 9: A political sense.
Speaker 6: Committed Biden's entire career was that. So Trump's like, Okay, well,
Speaker 6: we'll let them burn the place down after they blow
Speaker 6: up the ceasefire. But it had to do with his
Speaker 6: own uh, you know, transactional political real estate, all.
Speaker 9: Of these other things. Oh well, yeah, Mary Madelson is
Speaker 9: telling me I need to do this. Oh yeah, well
Speaker 9: she's got sixty billion in the bank. I okay, if
Speaker 9: I will that, yeah do.
Speaker 6: Biden, though committed Zionist his whole career, defending Israel at
Speaker 6: its worst constantly.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: He said that a Jew in the world would not
Speaker 3: be safe if Israel didn't exist, which is a slap
Speaker 3: in the face to our country that still enrages me.
Speaker 3: So you're the preest day, Yeah, I know, I mean what,
Speaker 3: that's such an insane thing to say.
Speaker 1: Eight million people in the country not say.
Speaker 3: Literally, yeah, we're not saving exactly.
Speaker 1: And now we have Anthony blink In. I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: I'm sure he saw this.
Speaker 3: John Kirby is now at David Axel Rods Institute for politics.
Speaker 3: Jake Sherman's at Harvard. These people had no consequence. It's icky. Yes,
Speaker 3: I abologized, Jake Sullivan is over at Harvard. I mean,
Speaker 3: these people paid no price. And I think that's what
Speaker 3: so personally black pilling is. I saw that happen with Iraq,
Speaker 3: and I said, Okay, it won't happen again, right like
Speaker 3: in my own lifetime.
Speaker 1: But it did happen again, and yeah and again.
Speaker 6: You know, I think that on these questions, we cannot
Speaker 6: let the Biden people off the hook.
Speaker 9: There's a huge yes.
Speaker 6: Trump allowed the Israelis to put forward a narrative of
Speaker 6: lies to blow up that January ceasefire deal. March second,
Speaker 6: they reimposed the Speege siege, and then March eighteenth they
Speaker 6: begin the terror bombings again. Now they've brought it back
Speaker 6: to the to the so called ceasefire. But Biden's people,
Speaker 6: including Matt Miller, the former State Department spokesperson, have acknowledged
Speaker 6: that they allowed Israel to blow up ceasefire deals because
Speaker 6: they were afraid if they were too hard on them
Speaker 6: that it would ruin their chances to get a ceasefire deal.
Speaker 6: I mean, if you think about the logic there but
Speaker 6: I would again, I would draw a difference between the
Speaker 6: Kushners and the wit Coughs of the world, who I think,
Speaker 6: in their own way are sort of cold, callous, vicious
Speaker 6: characters when it comes to how they're approaching Palestine and
Speaker 6: the Biden people. There was ideology at the center of
Speaker 6: the Biden people regarding Israel. With Trump's people, it's it's
Speaker 6: it's kind of like a Walmart, you know, like they're
Speaker 6: they're they're really this is just about like how much
Speaker 6: crap can we, you know, sell to get what we
Speaker 6: want to get those profits. And I think again, we
Speaker 6: should never forget that it was the Biden people that
Speaker 6: let this go on, that facilitated the entire thing. There
Speaker 6: never would have been that January deal had it not
Speaker 6: been for Trump's intervention. No matter how much the matt
Speaker 6: Iglesiuses or others of the world want to try to
Speaker 6: pretend Biden's people sealed that deal, they didn't what Biden brought.
Speaker 9: He should be remembered as the butcher of Gaza.
Speaker 6: But Biden's legacy should be he was the butcher of Gaza.
Speaker 3: And it was as simple the whole time. Jeremy, how
Speaker 3: did the ceasefire happen this final one. They met with
Speaker 3: Hamas in a room. It's not difficult meet with them.
Speaker 3: Kushner that I brought it up in the first Trump
Speaker 3: term exactly. It's one thing that I do give the
Speaker 3: temp administration credit for. Although they kind of they screwed
Speaker 3: the Palestinians on the eedon Alexander, you know, exchange the
Speaker 3: American Israeli soldier who was released, and they were supposed
Speaker 3: to be Trump calling for an end of the war
Speaker 3: and resumption of aid. But I give them credit for
Speaker 3: sitting down and talking with Hamas. And this is the
Speaker 3: dangerous thing, and it's the broader lesson we can end on,
Speaker 3: I guess anytime. And it's why at Dropsite we believe
Speaker 3: in speaking to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic jihad. It's because
Speaker 3: anytime you speak with people that you're told or the enemy,
Speaker 3: you're going to learn something about what motivates them, what
Speaker 3: drives them. And if we really want to resolve conflict
Speaker 3: or we want to end these wars, you it is
Speaker 3: imperative that you be willing to hear the perspective of
Speaker 3: the other side. Otherwise you have what Israel is, which
Speaker 3: is just an annihilationist agenda, a serial killer masquerading as
Speaker 3: a nation state.
Speaker 6: But if we want to hold ourselves to a higher standard,
Speaker 6: it means you talk to everybody. So I'm that strand
Speaker 6: of Trump, of Trump's policy, I think it's something that
Speaker 6: should become part.
Speaker 9: Of the US perspective on resolving conflict. Or you have to.
Speaker 6: Speak to people that you that you claim to be
Speaker 6: fighting against or that are being characterized as terrorists, particularly
Speaker 6: when it's in the service of another country.
Speaker 3: Yeah, especially, absolutely right. Don't let anybody shame you. You
Speaker 3: talk to whoever you want to, even if they're literally terrorist.
Speaker 9: I've got to talk to you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's right, You're.
Speaker 9: Right, you know.
Speaker 1: I'll end on this note.
Speaker 3: Similarly, I remember I ate all the propaganda about North Korea.
Speaker 3: Then I met some of the people who were analysts
Speaker 3: who had met with the North Koreans and they explained
Speaker 3: their perspective.
Speaker 1: I go, yeah, I'm not giving my nukes up either.
Speaker 3: Obviously, I'm like, what of course I'm I was like,
Speaker 3: I'm not trusting these people for one second. I heard
Speaker 3: what they said at the negotiation table about Goddafi to
Speaker 3: Mike Pompeo's face, and I was like, yeah, I'm on
Speaker 3: Piong Yang side here man, Like you know, I'm never
Speaker 3: given these up. So that's a perfect example of what
Speaker 3: you're talking about. Jeremy, thank you so much for dropping by.
Speaker 3: I always love talking to you man. Thank you very
Speaker 3: much to be with you guys.
Speaker 9: Thank you.
Speaker 3: Turning down to the economy, we've been trying to stick
Speaker 3: to this as much as we can, the two tiered
Speaker 3: economy where people, Yes, the S and P five hundred
Speaker 3: record high just yesterday, gold record high. So if you
Speaker 3: have some of those assets, you're doing well. But beneath
Speaker 3: the surface and behind the scenes, a lot of stuff
Speaker 3: happening for people who are making less than one hundred
Speaker 3: thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: Just go and put this up here on the screen.
Speaker 3: Lower income Americans are missing car payments, so more Americans
Speaker 3: are struggling to make monthly car loan payments. Assigned that
Speaker 3: the lower income consumers are undergrowing financial pressure. The share
Speaker 3: of subprime auto loans that are sixty days or more
Speaker 3: pass has narrowly a high of six point five percent
Speaker 3: and has lingered near that level.
Speaker 1: Repos have swelled.
Speaker 3: More drivers are trading in vehicles that are worth less
Speaker 3: than they owe, meaning that they're upside down, and lenders
Speaker 3: such as CarMax and Ally Financial have warned investors about
Speaker 3: auto loan.
Speaker 1: And performance quote.
Speaker 3: Despite stubborn inflation and punishing tariffs, the US economy, on
Speaker 3: its surface appeared to hold up relatively well. The stock
Speaker 3: market has climbed, companies executives for the most part, remain upbeat,
Speaker 3: and consumers overall are still spending, but it's largely those
Speaker 3: top ten percent consumers which are The weakness is that
Speaker 3: the auto market is one of the clearest indications that
Speaker 3: lower and middle class income families could be starting to buckle,
Speaker 3: because many Americans need cars to get around. Auto loan
Speaker 3: delinquency is a tel engage of financial.
Speaker 1: Hardship, essentially a good proxy, right.
Speaker 3: It's like one of the last things that you're going
Speaker 3: to go bust on is repossessions. I'm not sure I'm
Speaker 3: not the only one, but videos of repo men literally
Speaker 3: go viral all the time, and it does feel maybe
Speaker 3: it's algorithmic. I'm not sure my own personal bias, but
Speaker 3: I do certainly see them go everywhere, and I think
Speaker 3: it combined that with some of the other sides, particularly
Speaker 3: with the Stegram we're going to do later on with
Speaker 3: David Day. And the real risk to our economy right now,
Speaker 3: Ryan is that you know, if you're already making less
Speaker 3: than a hundred thousand, like you're basically not bust, but
Speaker 3: you're really struggling. And if fifty percent of all consumer
Speaker 3: spending and just from the top ten percent, a slight
Speaker 3: pullback in that is just enough to send us into
Speaker 3: a recession.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and what you said is exactly right.
Speaker 7: If you lose your car, and yeah, you can't do anything,
Speaker 7: like you know, there's a small percentage of people live
Speaker 7: walkable enough that they can get to work et cech A.
Speaker 7: That's not that's not the situation, right, like a massive
Speaker 7: portion of Americans.
Speaker 1: And so.
Speaker 7: If so when you start struggling, yeah, you your rent
Speaker 7: is the thing you stop paying first, maybe because it's
Speaker 7: much harder to get evicted. And then then your credit card,
Speaker 7: your student loans, definitely you're not paying those. What are
Speaker 7: they going to do take your take your degree back? Eventually?
Speaker 7: You but you keep paying the things that you need,
Speaker 7: and you need your car when you and then when
Speaker 7: you stop paying that and then now you're dodging the
Speaker 7: repo man. And if you lose your car, then you're
Speaker 7: you know, bumming rides to work, you might lose your job.
Speaker 7: You're So that's why the being counter is look at
Speaker 7: this number because through all of that pain and suffering
Speaker 7: is an economic indicator, which is that if people are
Speaker 7: falling behind on their car payments, that means everything else
Speaker 7: is going really badly.
Speaker 1: That's well, that's exactly right.
Speaker 3: There's another metric I track very closely. Let's go and
Speaker 3: put here up on the screen. When I saw this,
Speaker 3: I said, sell everything, because this is this is the
Speaker 3: biggest indicator of impending economic disaster. The number of people
Speaker 3: who registered to take the l SAT in September twenty
Speaker 3: twenty four was eighteen thousand, eight hundred and eleven. The
Speaker 3: number of people who registered to take it in September
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five is thirty two thousand, one hundred and seventy.
Speaker 1: So let's explain, shall we.
Speaker 3: What it is is that in anybody who is my
Speaker 3: age is just old enough to remember this is back
Speaker 3: in the Great Reception, you lived through this ryne. You
Speaker 3: were aftering the job market at that time. If you
Speaker 3: entered the job market between nine and twenty twelve, you
Speaker 3: were dead right you're basically entering one of the worst
Speaker 3: wage job markets of all time. So what a lot
Speaker 3: of people did, especially those who graduated let's say in nine,
Speaker 3: is they said, Okay, screw it, I'm just gonna have to.
Speaker 1: Go to law school. I'm gonna have to business school.
Speaker 3: Yes, I'm gonna have to leverage myself with some debt,
Speaker 3: but hopeful things will have cleaned up. I'll have gained
Speaker 3: a credential in the meantime. It's kind of a stopgap
Speaker 3: measure for a lot of people. It's nice if you
Speaker 3: can afford it, but it's definitely bad if you're taking
Speaker 3: out hundreds of thousands of dollars in loans.
Speaker 1: Just to add to that.
Speaker 7: In and you go on, let's say you graduated in five,
Speaker 7: You've been working for two three years, right, you just
Speaker 7: got laid off, and you're staring at now years of unemployment.
Speaker 7: Like there was this whole thing back then what they
Speaker 7: call the ninety nine ers, people who would exhaust ninety
Speaker 7: nine weeks of unemployment.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 7: And so you're like, well, I could sit around and
Speaker 7: just suffer because like there's not you know, it's an
Speaker 7: extraordinary amount of suffering.
Speaker 1: It has to be looking for work.
Speaker 7: It's it's an assault on your dignity as well as
Speaker 7: your finances. And so you're like, well, if I'm going
Speaker 7: to be sitting around for three years anyway, might as
Speaker 7: well at least try to come out with a credential
Speaker 7: that can make me more employable down the line.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And actually, what we saw is that the number of
Speaker 3: people who took the alsat actually dropped after the economy
Speaker 3: started to get better. So it is one of those
Speaker 3: like very good indications about how people are doing. And
Speaker 3: eventually as the economy got better, so let's say to twenty.
Speaker 1: Twelve, it fell even more precipitously.
Speaker 3: But the fact that it has such a large spike
Speaker 3: is genuinely one of those like two thousand and nine
Speaker 3: to two, it's the exact same thing. I'm looking right
Speaker 3: here at the statistics substantial jump of some twenty to
Speaker 3: forty percent in law school applications just in the two
Speaker 3: thousand and nine to twenty ten school year. So this
Speaker 3: is the same number if you look at what that
Speaker 3: is almost double actually, so very similar metric.
Speaker 1: It just goes to show you at the lower.
Speaker 3: Level of the job market, there is a crushing feeling
Speaker 3: of this isn't going to get better, and so I
Speaker 3: might as well just take out some debt and deal
Speaker 3: with it.
Speaker 1: I will also add, though, this.
Speaker 3: May be one of the worst times to do it,
Speaker 3: because not only do we have AI which is on
Speaker 3: the horizon, but also, you know, for people who are
Speaker 3: out there, please pay very attention to the law.
Speaker 1: So there's something called a grad plus loan. Are you
Speaker 1: where what that is? Yeah?
Speaker 9: Right?
Speaker 3: So previously cap no exactly. So previously this grad plus
Speaker 3: loan was one of the most used student loan federal
Speaker 3: programs for medical students and for law students. Now, the
Speaker 3: United States Congress in the recent legislation has capped that
Speaker 3: at fifty thousand, and so there are some schools I
Speaker 3: recently saw statistics that for the very first year ever.
Speaker 1: I think it's Santa Clair. I need to check which
Speaker 1: law school.
Speaker 3: They had their tuition at seventy thousand, but then the
Speaker 3: law change and they changed to fifty.
Speaker 1: I was like, oh, interesting, interesting, the seventy was kind
Speaker 1: of fixed.
Speaker 3: Say, all right, so there are two options that are
Speaker 3: right now. Is that one is that, yes, maybe law
Speaker 3: school prices will drop.
Speaker 1: I am deeply hopeful for that.
Speaker 3: Personally, I think we should make the grad plus own
Speaker 3: zero and then we'll really see what the market rate
Speaker 3: for law school is. My guess is a couple thousand dollars.
Speaker 3: But the real like change here.
Speaker 1: Could be the Yales, the Harvard's.
Speaker 3: Let's say, any in a T T fifteen top twenty
Speaker 3: five law school, any of those, they're not going to change.
Speaker 3: People are going to get leverage no matter what, whether
Speaker 3: it's grad plus or not. That's where I get scared,
Speaker 3: you know, for people is that they'll not only even
Speaker 3: have access to grad plus on I have to get
Speaker 3: a private loan.
Speaker 1: Private loan is.
Speaker 3: Going to have a user's interest rate right now, and
Speaker 3: you could really get stuck in a deep pull and
Speaker 3: you're basically banking on an entire career that works out
Speaker 3: when you have a technology environment right now where you
Speaker 3: just don't know. I mean, again, I'm not a lawyer.
Speaker 3: I know a lot from what I know. AI has
Speaker 3: not come yet. There's still a lot of guild checks
Speaker 3: in the system. But I can't be the only person
Speaker 3: who says, hey, you know, especially the lawyers who I
Speaker 3: grew up with their first two three years in the industry,
Speaker 3: it was bullshit. It was like, you know, document review,
Speaker 3: it was doc review, it was working. They would when
Speaker 3: the partners went to bed, that's when you started to
Speaker 3: work and you have to do your research and make
Speaker 3: sure that the footnotes are I mean, it's like investment banking.
Speaker 1: It's just pure scut work.
Speaker 3: And that's one of those where that I'm fairly certain
Speaker 3: chat GPT could do or at the very least you
Speaker 3: could use it to check your work and then come
Speaker 3: but the workload is going to be much much less.
Speaker 3: So that's where I really start to worry, you know, first,
Speaker 3: especially with the doctor view. Oh yeah, I mean that's
Speaker 3: the definition of automated right right, yeah.
Speaker 7: The hopefully I mean, don't put a value judgment on it.
Speaker 7: There are so many like fake cases that seem to
Speaker 7: have been seeded into the world. I don't know if
Speaker 7: like Thompson Reuters or like some other of these companies
Speaker 7: that you have to pay to get access to their cases,
Speaker 7: are like genuinely like seeding the world with like fake
Speaker 7: cases the way that like hippies would put like a
Speaker 7: spike in a tree. Something's going on that is putting
Speaker 7: in all of these made up, completely hallucinated cases that
Speaker 7: then ais are then writing into their memos that they're writing,
Speaker 7: and judges are coming down hard on them.
Speaker 1: Say oh this is this is clearly AI. You're sanctioned,
Speaker 1: you're fined.
Speaker 7: So at least you will need humans to like read
Speaker 7: the AI briefs and then actually go and check the
Speaker 7: cases to see if it's not illusive.
Speaker 1: Well you should be checking it anyways.
Speaker 3: I can't tell you the number of times I'll use
Speaker 3: check GPT for research and I'm like, wait, that's wrong.
Speaker 1: I mean, like I know that that's wrong, right, It's
Speaker 1: one of those wheys.
Speaker 3: And then I'll say hey, that's wrong, and they're like, oh,
Speaker 3: you're right, it is wrong.
Speaker 1: If you work it like Thomson Reuters or one of
Speaker 1: these other places, reach out to me because oh yeah,
Speaker 1: actually that would be a great story. And if I
Speaker 1: were them, I would do it. Oh absolutely, yeah, absolutely,
Speaker 1: you know why not.
Speaker 7: Be like business And Jenni versus Groom is powerful Supreme
Speaker 7: Court case and you can put it somewhere where the
Speaker 7: AIS will crawl it, but nobody else can find it.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: My dream is to get my name attached to a
Speaker 3: landmark case on marijuand and Jedti versus the United States
Speaker 3: and Jenny versus the state of Colorado.
Speaker 1: So my name can live forever.
Speaker 3: All right, let's go and put this one up here
Speaker 3: on jed Ji Yeah, the Miranda rights and Jenni right
Speaker 3: in Jeddi Wright too. There was actually a huge case
Speaker 3: here in Washington, d C. Where a woman sued her
Speaker 3: neighbor for smoking weed and one actually and one she
Speaker 3: is my personal hero right now. So the home sellers
Speaker 3: now outnumber buyers by more than five hundred thousand.
Speaker 1: That is the largest gap ever recorded. So yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: things are scary.
Speaker 3: And the reason why this scares me is the price
Speaker 3: still has not adjusted. Ryan, So even though the sellers
Speaker 3: are out numbering the buyers, the law of elasticity would
Speaker 3: tell you that the price should come down. Price is
Speaker 3: not going down, right, it's actually staying flat. In some
Speaker 3: cases in the big metro areas, they're going up, which
Speaker 3: I just don't understand. I don't know how it's possible.
Speaker 3: But there's something where I have said now this entire time,
Speaker 3: it feels like it has to crack, but it doesn't.
Speaker 3: And I think that's what scares me the most is
Speaker 3: we've lived through these crazy times now since June of
Speaker 3: twenty twenty it's been five years. More than five years
Speaker 3: of an insane housing market doesn't sound that long. Let's
Speaker 3: say if you're sixty, if you're my age and you're
Speaker 3: thirty three, that's.
Speaker 1: A long time.
Speaker 3: I wasn't even married with a child five years ago. Right,
Speaker 3: Your life can change rapidly in five years. Let's say
Speaker 3: you're twenty eight years old, You're right around that time
Speaker 3: where you're like, yeah, you know, I'm thinking about it. Oh,
Speaker 3: seven percent interest rate, terrible housing market.
Speaker 1: I can't afford it. I don't have the savings.
Speaker 3: Let's say I'm either getting laid off or I'm not
Speaker 3: getting the raise that I thought I was going to get.
Speaker 3: Inflation is eating away at my bottom line. Those are
Speaker 3: the people I think about the most right now.
Speaker 7: And I think what you're looking at there is a standoff.
Speaker 7: And I think, and this is the reason that you're
Speaker 7: not seeing the prices crash. Yet you have most of
Speaker 7: those sellers there have some type of three percent interest
Speaker 7: rate that they're sitting on, and so their monthly payment
Speaker 7: very low is something that they can afford as long
Speaker 7: as they're staying employed, and so.
Speaker 1: They can wade out the buyers.
Speaker 7: Buyers are looking at a seven eight percent interest rate,
Speaker 7: which sends your monthly mortgage costs, you know, absolutely through
Speaker 7: the roof, which changes the amount of house that you
Speaker 7: can then buy. So if you're a seller and you're
Speaker 7: selling on your three percent mortgage, now when you go
Speaker 7: to buy a new home, you're going to.
Speaker 1: Have to take out this eight percent level.
Speaker 7: So there's that huge gap, and so people are staring
Speaker 7: at that and saying, you know what, I need a
Speaker 7: lot more money to be able to get an equal house.
Speaker 7: And the person's like, well, why would I give you
Speaker 7: that much money? When no, I mean it makes it's perfect.
Speaker 7: It's two people just staring at each other. And I
Speaker 7: think the only way this breaks I guess eventually the
Speaker 7: force of like economic decline could do it because enough
Speaker 7: people just can't make their payments anymore. But really, interest
Speaker 7: rates have to move, yes, that's right, Like you can't.
Speaker 7: They're just crazy world of where you have three and eight,
Speaker 7: Like the buyers at eight and then the sellers at three,
Speaker 7: Like trying to find a place where they can meet
Speaker 7: in the middle is proving to be impossible.
Speaker 1: Like that's why you're seeing this record. That's such a
Speaker 1: good point.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and a lot of people are stuck in houses
Speaker 3: that they don't even want to be in. I know
Speaker 3: a lot of them. They have like three children, and
Speaker 3: they're like, I'm not moving. I can't afford it. I
Speaker 3: literally cannot afford to move. Let's go and put the
Speaker 3: next one up on the screen. This is we wanted
Speaker 3: to bring it back to the shutdown. There is in
Speaker 3: fact a shutdown happening, by the way, if anybody's forgotten, it's.
Speaker 1: Actually fourth week if the shutdown.
Speaker 3: Not that anybody cares, apparently, And so these Obamacare prices
Speaker 3: were the things that the Democrats really were zeroing in on.
Speaker 3: And there's spend new public reporting now of these higher
Speaker 3: prices that are now actually revealed in over a dozen states.
Speaker 3: It says consumers are now facing greater costs for their
Speaker 3: twenty twenty six ACA health coverage as Congress continues to
Speaker 3: debate whether to extend subsidies that help people afford their premium.
Speaker 3: So health insurance prices for next year under the Affordable
Speaker 3: Care Act now available. The annual enrollment period for Obamacare
Speaker 3: starts on November first. The costs are becoming publicly available
Speaker 3: piecemeal through state marketplaces. People shopping for coverage can now
Speaker 3: preview the costs they face from potentially expiring subsidies sharply
Speaker 3: rising premiums in many markets, including California, New York, Nevada, Maryland,
Speaker 3: and Idaho. Man California, New York. What that's a huge
Speaker 3: portion of the entire US population. Based on newly published information,
Speaker 3: a family of four making one hundred and thirty thousand
Speaker 3: dollars in Maine would face an increase of sixteen thousand
Speaker 3: dollars in annual premiums just next year because they would
Speaker 3: no longer qualify for generous subsidies. And that is from
Speaker 3: the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. That's devastating. Sixteen
Speaker 3: thousand dollars. That's after tax income.
Speaker 7: First, that's that's one of those where you read and
Speaker 7: you're like, that can't be right, right, that has to
Speaker 7: be wrong.
Speaker 1: It's huge, an increase of sixteen thousand dollars. And like
Speaker 1: you said, after tax income.
Speaker 7: So the family for making one hundred and thirty one
Speaker 7: hundred and thirty, I guess.
Speaker 1: Technically tax it up whatever. I'm not on accountant, but still, yeah, yeah, yes,
Speaker 1: you can write that off. That's true, but your income
Speaker 1: is not.
Speaker 7: You know, you're actually income is going to be more
Speaker 7: like one hundred, even though you can write a.
Speaker 1: Lot of that off.
Speaker 7: But that's brutal, and so what people, so's what's interesting here.
Speaker 7: Let me read something from a related report which says,
Speaker 7: so the expiration of enhanced tax credits will lead to
Speaker 7: out of pocket premiums for ACA marketplaces. Role is increasing
Speaker 7: by an average of more than seventy five percent. This
Speaker 7: is the doubling that you keep hearing about. So they're
Speaker 7: guessing that won't be a complete and total doubling, which
Speaker 7: ensures with insurers expecting healthier enrollees to drop coverage, that
Speaker 7: in turn increases underlying premiums. So, just to make sure
Speaker 7: everyone's clear on what's going on here, we're going to
Speaker 7: double the price almost of these exchanges. A lot of
Speaker 7: people are going to look at that sixteen thousand dollars
Speaker 7: price tag that they're facing for next year, and they're
Speaker 7: going to say, I can't afford that. It's not even
Speaker 7: a choice of whether or not I want to buy this.
Speaker 7: I don't have the money for it, so I'm just dropping.
Speaker 7: Health insurance insurers have already gained that out. They know
Speaker 7: that they're estimating two million for next year and then
Speaker 7: increasing as it goes on. Okay, so it's the healthiest
Speaker 7: people who are the most likely to say, you know what,
Speaker 7: I just I'm not family is going to have to
Speaker 7: go no insurance this year. And so if you lose
Speaker 7: the healthy people from the pool, you then have to
Speaker 7: charge everybody else more. So, not only are you losing
Speaker 7: the subsidy which is driving the price up to seventy
Speaker 7: five percent they're estimating then they're already forecasting two regulators
Speaker 7: that they're going to raise the underlying price by twenty percent. Yeah,
Speaker 7: that is a year over year increase that is utterly
Speaker 7: unsustainable and insane.
Speaker 1: Right, twenty percent in one year. It's horrible.
Speaker 3: But you know, I keep coming back to what Crystal
Speaker 3: said with Corbin Trent.
Speaker 1: Which is a devastating point. This is the devastating point.
Speaker 3: The whole fight is we can't afford to go back
Speaker 3: to normal Obamacare. Well, if this is normal Obamacare, this sucks.
Speaker 3: It's like I said, ay time, Yeah, it's like this
Speaker 3: is horrible.
Speaker 1: This is horrible.
Speaker 3: The only reason people signed up were because of pandemic
Speaker 3: era subsidies for health insurance, and now that it's reverting
Speaker 3: back from people.
Speaker 1: Were like woah, woah.
Speaker 3: I'm like, I didn't know that this is what the
Speaker 3: normal program was. And that's actually kind of a Republican
Speaker 3: talking point, which is not incorrect. It's like, if this
Speaker 3: was the normal marketplace, then what the hell are we
Speaker 3: doing here?
Speaker 1: One hundred. I mean I got some of these older figures.
Speaker 3: I got a in Kentucky, a sixty year old couple
Speaker 3: make eighty five thousand will face an increase of twenty
Speaker 3: three thousand and seven.
Speaker 7: They make you will make eighty seven thousand, and there
Speaker 7: increases a quarter of the twenty three seven hundred.
Speaker 1: I'm rolling the dice.
Speaker 3: Don't get medicare, I mean personally right, if you're health healthy,
Speaker 3: I'm like, let's let's roll the dice. Don't take any buses,
Speaker 3: don't don't go on across.
Speaker 7: And that's what they that's what they expect people will do.
Speaker 7: So and so costs are going to go through the roof.
Speaker 7: The best thing that people said about the ACA at
Speaker 7: the time was well, this is the first step, and
Speaker 7: they'll fill it in with subsidies. And then they did,
Speaker 7: and now they let them go. Now you have to
Speaker 7: fight to get them back. Yes, it's it's utterly absurd.
Speaker 7: It's outrageous, and it shows why you need universal coverage
Speaker 7: because without universal coverage, the healthiest people aren't in it,
Speaker 7: and then everybody else, everybody else pays more.
Speaker 1: So Yeah, the politics play an interesting role here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is really what I want your opinion on
Speaker 3: because it does look like the Senate Democrats are going
Speaker 3: to cave.
Speaker 7: Right, because so think so if you're just listening to this,
Speaker 7: This is Andrew Destorio, steal reporter saying, are Senate Dems
Speaker 7: eyeing November first as a shutdown off ramped m think
Speaker 7: they can argue it's no longer feasible to address the
Speaker 7: expiring ACA subsidies legislatively and make GP own the resulting
Speaker 7: premium mics.
Speaker 1: No decision yet this idea is picking up steam.
Speaker 7: So in other words, saying, okay, well, the exchanges open
Speaker 7: up for business on November first, and this is what
Speaker 7: we're fighting for. So if we get past November first,
Speaker 7: we can then save face and say, okay, look we tried.
Speaker 7: We tried to save Republicans from themselves. We tried to
Speaker 7: stop Republicans from doubling your health insurance costs. They refused,
Speaker 7: Now they're doubled. It's done, let's open the government up.
Speaker 7: Like so that's and then.
Speaker 1: You've had.
Speaker 7: Was it Thoon yesterday saying I will negotiate, you know,
Speaker 7: And what Republicans have been saying is we will negotiate
Speaker 7: around these subsidies, but we won't do it with a
Speaker 7: gun to our head, which is hilarious because it's like
Speaker 7: the exact reverse of what the parties said during the
Speaker 7: last shutdown. There is no principle in process ever, like
Speaker 7: don't don't If anybody claim that they believe in a process,
Speaker 7: they're lying.
Speaker 1: They don't. They just believe in the outcomes.
Speaker 7: So in the previous case, it was Democrats who said,
Speaker 7: why can't you negotiate with the government open?
Speaker 1: Because Biden was president?
Speaker 7: Yes, now it's Republicans saying why can't you negotiate with
Speaker 7: the government because Trumps Trump is pressed and that's all
Speaker 7: that matters. So Democrats can say, all right, look we tried.
Speaker 7: And also from a cynical perspective, Schumer Schumer's personally, but
Speaker 7: Democrats in general, they are personally. You know what, if
Speaker 7: Trump wants to hurt twenty million people and let the
Speaker 7: whole country know that he's doing it to them, then
Speaker 7: let him do it, then let him do it and
Speaker 7: we'll reap the political.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but then why did you shut the government down
Speaker 1: for a month two?
Speaker 7: Because nobody would have known otherwise, like they would have
Speaker 7: gotten their increase and been like, oh this is terrible,
Speaker 7: but like life sucks. Now they can say, look, we
Speaker 7: told you Trump was doing this, We fought for you.
Speaker 1: Trump fights against you.
Speaker 7: That check your writing, remember Donald Trump's name while you're
Speaker 7: writing it.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's their theory.
Speaker 3: I could see it. It's just a little week for me.
Speaker 3: It's like, if that's the political calculus, then keep the
Speaker 3: government shut down. Okay, I mean because again you know,
Speaker 3: and Crystal's made this point, I'm sure you agree with
Speaker 3: it if you ask those No Kings people. Yeah, there's
Speaker 3: going to be some signs about Obamacare. That's not what
Speaker 3: they're mad about, right, They're mad about Ice. They're mad
Speaker 3: about all this other stuff going on. Right, So for them,
Speaker 3: they're like, screw you, why should I fund you? You
Speaker 3: think these ICE agents aren't getting paid fine by me?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: You know, for a lot of them, they're saying, there's
Speaker 3: no reason to fund this government. It make their life
Speaker 3: a little bit more difficult. Force them to do stupid shit,
Speaker 3: like I don't know, firing an artillery shell, if that
Speaker 3: explodes over the city of Los Angeles, I mean, if
Speaker 3: I'm a damn I'm gonna take that all day long.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 3: Yes, it's very painful for a lot of the for
Speaker 3: the federal workers, et cetera. But you know, it's ponds
Speaker 3: have to be played in the field of battle.
Speaker 7: Romer Democrats is that Republicans only have to peel off
Speaker 7: a few and they're good.
Speaker 1: Okay, So yeah, Democrats as.
Speaker 7: A leader ship can want whatever they want. But if
Speaker 7: Republicans can get a couple, I don't know.
Speaker 1: We'll see. Like, but November first is you know, it's
Speaker 1: still a ways away. Yeah, all right, well we'll see.
Speaker 1: We'll see. Ryan, I'm very curious.