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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: That's when you have fun when you're kicking somebody's ass

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Speaker 2: and they're sucking for when that was good?

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Speaker 1: Ready go.

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Speaker 3: Involved on the baseline pop hell.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, way outside.

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Speaker 1: Possible time.

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Speaker 5: I'm the wiley man here.

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Speaker 1: It is well whoa, whoa.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, brought to you by

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Speaker 4: bet MGM on my calvaries. And with the round of

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Speaker 4: sixty four just hours away, we're squeezing in one last

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Speaker 4: preview episode, this time focusing on player props. We're bringing

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Speaker 4: in the big guns for this episode. That so that

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Speaker 4: means Sean Kerner, Nick Giffin, the engine of our predictive

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Speaker 4: analytics team here at Action, as well as Action contributor

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Speaker 4: and prop expert Doug ze Fyl. So let me get

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Speaker 4: the ball to one of our playmakers on Take It Away.

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Speaker 3: Thanks Mike. My first prop is from the Mississippi State

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Speaker 3: Michigan State game, the very first game of the tournament

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Speaker 3: that tips off at twelve to fifteen pm Eastern time

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Speaker 3: on Thursday, and I'm going with Cameron Matthews of Mississippi

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Speaker 3: State to go under nine and a half points at

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Speaker 3: minus one fourteen. He stayed under this sixty percent of

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Speaker 3: the time over the last twenty games, when the State

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Speaker 3: was averaging seventy four points a game over that stretch.

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Speaker 3: Their team tolls is sixty five points here, so ten

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Speaker 3: points lower than they average over that twenty game sample.

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Speaker 3: So he's much less likely to clear here, especially considering

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Speaker 3: Michigan State's defense is very good at preventing two pointers,

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Speaker 3: which is basically what Matthews relies on solely to generate points.

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Speaker 3: He'll also be guarding Malik Hall for Michigan State, who

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Speaker 3: does tend to draw fouls at a really high rate.

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Speaker 3: So I guess there's just an increased chance here that

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Speaker 3: Matthews could get into foul trouble, which his lowers his

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Speaker 3: floor even more. In this mark get we're projecting closer

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Speaker 3: to eight points with a sixty one percent chance to

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Speaker 3: stay under nine and a half points. My second prop

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Speaker 3: is from the BYU Ducaine game at twelve forty pm

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Speaker 3: Eastern Time on Thursday, and I'm going with day day

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Speaker 3: grant of Ducaine to finish with under nine, under two

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Speaker 3: and a half three pointers made at plus one point fifteen.

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Speaker 3: He's been averaging you know, two point four threes a

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Speaker 3: game over the last fifteen games, but he stayed under

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Speaker 3: this in ten of those fifteen games, so a sixty

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Speaker 3: six percent clip towards the under, and that was with

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Speaker 3: Ducaine averaging seventy two points per game over that stretch.

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Speaker 3: But they have a team total of sixty six and

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Speaker 3: a half here, So again, this is gonna be a

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Speaker 3: tougher spot for data to clear this number. BYU has

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Speaker 3: a top fifty defense, you know, and they've allowed three

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Speaker 3: percent fewer points via three pointers then league average, So

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Speaker 3: this just seems like a tougher spot for data to

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Speaker 3: clear this when he's typically been staying under this anyway,

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Speaker 3: So the fact that we're getting this at plus one

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Speaker 3: fifteen is a nice bonus here, but we're projecting him

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Speaker 3: with about a fifty six percent chance to stay under

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Speaker 3: two and half three points made. Those are my two props,

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Speaker 3: and now I'll pass it over to Nick Giffin. Hi everybody,

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Speaker 3: Hi Nick.

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Speaker 1: Thanks Sean so for my first of my two player props.

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Speaker 1: I am going to go to the Gonzaga versus McNeese

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Speaker 1: State game that is at seven twenty five pm Eastern

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Speaker 1: time on Thursday, and I'm going to take Nolan Hickman

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Speaker 1: to have over one and a half three points made.

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Speaker 1: We are paying some juice here at minus one forty five,

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Speaker 1: but I'm totally okay with that because Nolan Hickman has

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Speaker 1: gone over this number in fourteen of his last eighteen games. Now,

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Speaker 1: we definitely have to adjust for the level of competition,

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Speaker 1: given that Gonzaga play some relatively soft competition in conference.

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Speaker 1: That said, McNeese State is probably an ideal matchup here

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Speaker 1: for Hickman because McNee State allows the highest three point

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Speaker 1: attempt to field goal attempt ratio in all of college basketball.

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Speaker 1: Of all three hundred and sixty two teams, they allow

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Speaker 1: the largest fraction of field goal attempts to come from outside,

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Speaker 1: and that is part of why they allow the third

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Speaker 1: most fraction of points scored against them to come from outside,

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Speaker 1: at nearly forty percent a point scored against them from

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Speaker 1: downtown versus just over thirty percent as the national average.

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Speaker 1: So we're projecting Nolan Hickman to go over this line

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Speaker 1: around seventy two percent of the time with an average

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Speaker 1: of around two point six three point field goals made.

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Speaker 1: So really like this number even at minus one forty five.

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Speaker 1: For my second prop, I'm going to turn over to

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Speaker 1: the Iowa State versus South Dakota State game that is

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Speaker 1: at seven thirty five pm Eastern Time on Thursday, so

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Speaker 1: tipping off just around ten minutes after that Gonzaga McNeese

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Speaker 1: State game. And I'm gonna go to a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a cult hero in the Action Network discord Our

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Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell a little bit of a cult hero

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Speaker 1: with him as well, and I'm gonna turn two up

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Speaker 1: Milan Mamchilovich over one and a half three points made

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Speaker 1: at plus one fifty.

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Speaker 4: What some I need? Go Hi, mom Ma.

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Speaker 1: Mad Milan Mamchilovich. This matchup against South Dakota State is

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Speaker 1: even better than Hickman's versus McNee State. South Dakota State

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Speaker 1: allows the second highest three point attempt to field goal

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Speaker 1: temp ratio, but even worse, they allow the just the

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Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty sixth lowest so in other words,

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Speaker 1: bottom one hundred and three point percent made allowed against them,

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Speaker 1: meaning when you combine the fraction of shots that come

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Speaker 1: from outside and the ratio of those shots that go in,

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Speaker 1: they allow the most points via three in the nation. Well, Mamchilovich,

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Speaker 1: he makes around one point sixty five three point attempts

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Speaker 1: per game, and now he's getting this super plus matchup.

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Speaker 1: I think our projections actually a little conservative at one

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Speaker 1: point seven three point tis made, which means he's about

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Speaker 1: a coin flip to go over one and a half.

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Speaker 1: But we're again plus one fifty, so that's like a

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Speaker 1: ten percent edge right there, and I think there's upside

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Speaker 1: for even more. So I don't mind laddering this prop

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Speaker 1: as well. So for my second prop, I'm taking I

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Speaker 1: Milana Manschilovich over one and a half three points made

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Speaker 1: at plus one point fifty. Now I'm gonna throw it

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Speaker 1: over to Doug Ziefel for his player props.

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Speaker 5: Thanks Nick. My first player prop is going to be

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Speaker 5: Hunter Dickinson under thirty three and a half points, rebounds

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Speaker 5: and assists. He can get this at minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 5: The reason why I'm on this prop is Dickinson is

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Speaker 5: coming off a dislocated shoulder. Our friend for injuries pro

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Speaker 5: football doc had equip saying that guys who initially have

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Speaker 5: shoulder dislocations the first time, the damage to their shoulder

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Speaker 5: is much more significant versus if I have it a

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Speaker 5: second or a third time. So, going off his opinion,

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Speaker 5: he believes that Dickinson is going to be significantly hampered

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Speaker 5: playing through this injury. And then also we have the

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Speaker 5: numbers on our side here. He's gone under this total

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Speaker 5: in sixty one percent of games played this season. That

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Speaker 5: gives us an implied odds of minus one fifty six.

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Speaker 5: For my second problem, it's going to be another under.

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Speaker 5: We're going to go to the South Carolina Oregon game

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Speaker 5: that's dipping over at four o'clock on Thursday. I'm taking

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Speaker 5: the under on Tailor Cooper's assist prop that's under four

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Speaker 5: and a half assists. That's a minus one forty. Cooper's

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Speaker 5: the game Pok shooting guard. He's gotten under this total

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Speaker 5: in sixty one percent of games this season. He is

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Speaker 5: very limited usage in the offense, and the tempo of

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Speaker 5: this matchup is going to be very slow, as the

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Speaker 5: game Poks are one of the slowest teams in the

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Speaker 5: country and the Ducks are not much faster than them,

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Speaker 5: so his ability to not only touch the ble himself,

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Speaker 5: but only but distributed to his teammates is going to

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Speaker 5: be even less in this game. And now back to

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Speaker 5: our host Calibres.

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Speaker 1: Oh, they're talking.

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Speaker 5: We'll discuss in the podcast try to Light the Fire.

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Speaker 4: Thanks Doug. Now for my top two plays, I'm going

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Speaker 4: to start with a player who is going to be

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Speaker 4: critical for a high seed hoping to avoid an upset,

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Speaker 4: and that's Johnny Furfey, the Australian three points specialist for

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Speaker 4: the Kansas Jayhawks. I going to go with him knocking

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Speaker 4: down two or more three pointers at plus one fourteen

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Speaker 4: in the market. Reminder, always shot round, see if you

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Speaker 4: can find the best price. Let's just go into is

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Speaker 4: his resume a little bit. He's averaged three point six

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Speaker 4: three point attempts per game and shot thirty five point

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Speaker 4: four percent from long range. But his numbers have spiked

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Speaker 4: with mccullor on the shelf, and there's been multiple situations

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Speaker 4: where he's either been on a minutes restriction or sitting

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Speaker 4: out all together. As we now know, mccullor Junior has

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Speaker 4: been ruled out for the rest of the NCAA tournament,

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Speaker 4: So what does that mean? All those role players are

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Speaker 4: going to have a little bit higher usage, more opportunities

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Speaker 4: to put the ball in the basket. He shot five

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Speaker 4: triples against BYU with mccullor out and seven against Houston

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Speaker 4: with mccullor on a limited minutes restriction. So those seven

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Speaker 4: attempts I think is going to be closer in this game.

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Speaker 4: And what's interesting the game Within the game, Sanmford plays

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Speaker 4: a lot of zone the second highest rate of any

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Speaker 4: team in the field of sixty eight. They play it

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Speaker 4: close to thirty percent of the time. They're going to

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Speaker 4: be daring the Jayhawks to knock down three pointers because

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Speaker 4: on the season, KU has made just thirty three point

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Speaker 4: three percent of their opportunities. So Furfey is just going

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Speaker 4: to let it fly in this one. And when you

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Speaker 4: look at Samford, not only are they going to dare Kansas,

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Speaker 4: they've dared every opponent to fire away from long range.

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Speaker 4: Opponents average twenty four to three pointers per game against Sanford,

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Speaker 4: which is two hundred and eightieth in the country, so

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Speaker 4: you know the opportunity is going to be there. We'll

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Speaker 4: see if the Australian can knock down some of these

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Speaker 4: three pointers and get us into a plus one fourteen.

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Speaker 4: I'm hoping you can get plus one twenty five in

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Speaker 4: the market. As I mentioned Lee's shop around last piece

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Speaker 4: of this, Sanford plays super fast, the fourteenth fastest pace

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Speaker 4: in the entire country, and they get burned in transition

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Speaker 4: a lot. And that doesn't just mean layups at the rim.

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Speaker 4: It also means wide open shooters on the perimeter. So

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Speaker 4: I think that's a recipe for more open looks for

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Speaker 4: Furfey in this one. For the second one, I'm going

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Speaker 4: to go with a mid major superstar. The country is

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Speaker 4: not familiar with Riley Minnix, but if he goes ahead

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Speaker 4: and upsets Illinois, He'll be a household name overnight. I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna go over his points, rebounds, and assists currently sitting

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Speaker 4: in the market at twenty six and a half. His

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Speaker 4: season average for this market was thirty three. But the

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Speaker 4: question obviously is he did that in the OVC. How

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Speaker 4: did he play when he stepped up in competition? We

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Speaker 4: played two nationally ranked teams. Against Alabama his points, rebound

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Speaker 4: and assists twenty six and against Purdue twenty one. He

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Speaker 4: took thirty five shots in those two games combined against

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Speaker 4: the Crimson Tiet and boiler Makers, so the offense will

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Speaker 4: continue to flow through him. He's hard to take away,

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Speaker 4: even if Illinois came up with a great defensive game plan,

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Speaker 4: because the Eagles use him in so many different ways.

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Speaker 4: They use him in pick and roll, slip screens. He's

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Speaker 4: a great three point shooter, so he can take big

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Speaker 4: defenders away. He's six foot seven, two hundred and thirty pounds.

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Speaker 4: Take him out to the perimeter and not only shoot

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Speaker 4: over them, but in some cases put it on the

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Speaker 4: deck and get to the rim, so it's very difficult

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Speaker 4: to keep him down For a guy who's probably going

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Speaker 4: to take fifteen to twenty shots in this game, the

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Speaker 4: entire offense, as I said, flows through him, and Illinois

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Speaker 4: defense leaves a lot to be desired. They don't pressure

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Speaker 4: pressure ball handlers at all, so they give up a

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Speaker 4: lot of open threes. They're soft at the rim, and

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Speaker 4: if they're successful, Illinois wants to speed this game way up,

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Speaker 4: and extra possessions are just more opportunities to pad your

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Speaker 4: stats in this one. And at this point, I think

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Speaker 4: in terms of Illinois speeding the game up, that's going

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Speaker 4: to help them win outright, But I don't think that's

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Speaker 4: necessarily the recipe for it under in this so I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna go over. I would lay up to minus one

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Speaker 4: twenty five in terms of negative juice. All right, that's

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Speaker 4: our eight picks to get you started on March Madness

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Speaker 4: player props. This has been the player prop episode. A reminder,

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Speaker 4: BBOC Live will be back on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and

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Speaker 4: Sunday mornings starting at ten thirty. You can get last

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Speaker 4: minute advice, details on the games, injury reports, everything that

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Speaker 4: you need to know before the first two rounds tip off.

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Speaker 4: This has been the Action Howork podcast, brought to you

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Speaker 4: by bet MGM for Sean Kerner, Nick Giffon and Doug

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Speaker 4: Zifel On Mike Calabrets enjoy the madness.

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Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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