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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the

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Speaker 1: show that makes the squares sharper. It makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman, I am joined

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Speaker 1: as always, Bye, my co host, my companion, my compadre,

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Speaker 1: my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter Ello, Simon Jed.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing?

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Speaker 1: Brother? This is our Thursday Super Bowl preview episode, the

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Speaker 1: first of two Thursday preview episodes. So next week we

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Speaker 1: will dig in a little bit more on where we

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Speaker 1: stand with final bets and you know, any more of

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Speaker 1: our named bets, like Simon says, which we already did,

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Speaker 1: but we'll get into a chat choice and our brass balls,

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Speaker 1: you know, rock and heart place, et cetera. We do

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Speaker 1: have a very special guest today which I will get

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Speaker 1: to in a minute. Since we last spoke, Joe Brady,

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Speaker 1: the new head coach of the Buffalo Bills. Todd Munkin,

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Speaker 1: the new head coach of the Cleveland Browns, where he

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Speaker 1: gets to coach a Pro Bowl quarterback and Shador Sanders

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Speaker 1: or or a guy who hasn't thrown a vertical pass

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Speaker 1: unless it was too am SEUs in like a decade,

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. We are also getting news out of New

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Speaker 1: England that Drake May has a vague shoulder injury and

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Speaker 1: was limited in practice. A lot of shit going on, man.

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Speaker 1: Apparently it's in vogue when you can't find a head

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Speaker 1: coach who wants to coach your team, to just grab

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Speaker 1: a guy who's been a mediocre offensive coordinator but had

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Speaker 1: won a national championship in college recently.

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Speaker 2: And you didn't even bring up are you the ultimate hater? Chad?

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Speaker 2: Are you a hater?

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Speaker 3: Should Bello Belichick been a first ballut Hall of Famer?

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Speaker 1: Of course, that's so fucking stupid. I completely forgot about that, fellas.

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Speaker 2: I am sick of this.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I can't stand much more of this.

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Speaker 2: It's a joke.

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Speaker 1: It's a joke. It's so stupid these guys. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's funny. My kid texted me as soon as it happened.

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Speaker 1: And then Seth and Don van Atta, two close buddies

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Speaker 1: of ours, broke the story about Belichick not making it.

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Speaker 1: And you know, at first they had the news about

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Speaker 1: Pollian saying he had to wait a year, and now

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Speaker 1: Pollion is saying I couldn't remember who I voted for.

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Speaker 1: Now he's saying the Hall of Fame confirmed that I

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Speaker 1: did vote for Belichick. There was a reporter from the

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Speaker 1: Kansas City Star who wrote that he decided to vote

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Speaker 1: in Ken Anderson and Roger Craig and someone else I

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Speaker 1: forgot who who was on the Veterans committee, who was

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Speaker 1: on the veterans list, because he felt that was their

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Speaker 1: last chance, and Belichick, he thought would get in, someone

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Speaker 1: else would vote him in. My sense is that's probably

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Speaker 1: what happened, is there were eleven dudes who just thought,

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Speaker 1: ask someone else will do it right. They were just

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Speaker 1: complacent and figured someone else is going to take care

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Speaker 1: of this, and then everyone thought that and Belichick didn't

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Speaker 1: get in. But how idiotic is this?

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Speaker 3: You want to talk about the game, I'm where I

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Speaker 3: could get it in a postgame analysis here didn't be

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Speaker 3: I've had.

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Speaker 2: Enough of that.

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Speaker 1: I don't even like Bill Belichick. But the guy's got

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Speaker 1: eight Super Bowls as a head coach and assistant coach.

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Speaker 1: He built brilliant game plans. He changed the way people

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Speaker 1: think about situational football. He was one of the first

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Speaker 1: guys to start going forward on fourth downs. He was

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Speaker 1: one of the guys who would take safeties instead of

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Speaker 1: punting from the back of it, you know, from deep

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Speaker 1: in his territory when they were up by a certain

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Speaker 1: amount of points. Like how fucking dumb Simon.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we got him. Yeah, we'll see, we'll see

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Speaker 2: who's got who.

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Speaker 1: Dumb Sports writers cannot get out of their own ways sometimes.

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Speaker 3: Not that I saw it coming, but you knew there

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Speaker 3: was a possibility, just because too to me, who was

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Speaker 3: a top three receiver was not a first ballt Hall

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Speaker 3: of Favor because of how he treated members of the media,

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Speaker 3: and they wanted to get back at them.

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Speaker 2: And Bill Belichick was not the.

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Speaker 3: Best with the media his whole entire career, and you know,

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Speaker 3: some guys, we're gonna hold that against him at some point.

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Speaker 3: But the cheating stuff, as much as New England fans

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Speaker 3: want to push back against it, Chad, in.

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Speaker 2: The fifty fifty year history, six year history of the.

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Speaker 3: NFL, you name me a team that was accused and

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Speaker 3: then prosecuted twice for cheating. This is very short. It's

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Speaker 3: only the Patriots, it's only Bill Belichick run team. So

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Speaker 3: I get it. Everyone's cheating the NFL. Everyone's trying. If

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Speaker 3: that's your reasoning for not voting him in. You're bitter

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Speaker 3: about it because you think he stole a couple of

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Speaker 3: Super Bowls because he cheated. All right, do what you

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Speaker 3: gotta do. But I was in shock. I could not

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Speaker 3: believe it. They didn't put Belichick, was the most Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl rings as the head coach and all of it

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Speaker 3: into the Hall of Fame.

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Speaker 2: So, yeah, we talk all the time. The world is

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Speaker 2: very petty.

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Speaker 3: It does not not get any less petty when you

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Speaker 3: had the NFL, these old guys voting in people. So

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Speaker 3: Bill Polian speaking like that about Belichick just rubbed me

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Speaker 3: the wrong way. Like this guy, I don't know. I'm

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Speaker 3: glad he's probably gonna lose his vote. Now I've seen

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Speaker 3: the NFL sent on a letter. They're about to take

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Speaker 3: away a bunch of people's votes. Hopefully Bill points one

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Speaker 3: of them. It's like, you get this guy out of

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Speaker 3: the sport.

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Speaker 1: It's so fucking You see this all the time with

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Speaker 1: Hall of Fame votes. You see it with Baseball two,

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Speaker 1: where guys like Derek Jeter won't be unanimous entries into

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Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame in their first year because there's

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Speaker 1: some holier than now precious douchebag asshole who decides I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna be the one who's this steward of the hall. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's so idiotic. It's like, there are things to take

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Speaker 1: seriously about sports writing as someone who has been doing

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Speaker 1: this for thirty years, as someone who did it a

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Speaker 1: Sports Illustrated ed ESPN. I ran the magazine, I ran

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Speaker 1: ESPN Digital, we started action. Like I have lived in

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Speaker 1: the Capitol J trenches for a very long time. There

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Speaker 1: are things to take seriously about sports writing. You don't

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Speaker 1: want to lie, you don't want to make shit up.

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Speaker 1: You want it to be good craftsmanship. You want to

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Speaker 1: do things that are fair. You want to be of

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Speaker 1: high quality. Acting like you are the steward for some

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Speaker 1: legacy is so fucking dumb. I just I can't get

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Speaker 1: behind it. It actually makes me so mad, and stupidly

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Speaker 1: so because like who should get mad about this? Right,

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Speaker 1: there's bigger things.

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Speaker 3: Made me mad because it just it's just not a

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Speaker 3: bad look for something we take series as football fans,

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Speaker 3: which is the Hall of Fame. I take the Hall

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Speaker 3: of Fame serious, and this, to me, it's a it's

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Speaker 3: a bad look. This is a the say black mark

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Speaker 3: on the Hall of Fame, and I think NFL knows that.

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Speaker 2: That's why they put out that letter.

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Speaker 3: It's like, hey, we're going to look into the people

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Speaker 3: vote here because that's embarrassing. The best coach in the

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Speaker 3: twenty first should be your first Ball of Famer.

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Speaker 2: If he's not, what are we doing here? So I

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Speaker 2: knew that would have you fired up.

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Speaker 3: As soon as you broke it down, I was like,

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Speaker 3: we'll chat, bring it up now for me again very quick.

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Speaker 3: The Browns thing, I feel so bad for Browns fans.

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Speaker 1: My god, nobody wants that job.

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Speaker 2: No one wants that job.

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Speaker 3: Jim Schwartz now has left the building being like I

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Speaker 3: can't believe about disrespect that I was. I'm leaving as well,

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Speaker 3: and yeah, it's my god. I just again, I feel

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Speaker 3: so bad for the Browns fans. You fire a head

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Speaker 3: coach and you've downgrade it somehow. It's crazy.

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Speaker 1: Nobody wants that job. There were stories about the interview

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Speaker 1: process and being data driven and how onerous it was,

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Speaker 1: and they just seem like an organization where I don't

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Speaker 1: know if the GM is conducting some kind of experiment

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Speaker 1: where he has the owners in some kind of Stockholm syndrome,

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Speaker 1: but Jesus fucking Christ. The only thing that was working

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Speaker 1: in that building was the defense. The only thing that

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Speaker 1: made any sense was keeping Miles Garrett happy. You have

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Speaker 1: no quarterback, so what does it matter if you get

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Speaker 1: an offensive genius or a defensive genius. You're not going

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Speaker 1: to do anything on that side of the ball because

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Speaker 1: they are completely incapable of being effective offensively. So what

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Speaker 1: do they do that?

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Speaker 4: How?

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Speaker 1: You're a mediocre offensive coordinator who the other teams owner

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Speaker 1: that they stole him from had been trying to fire

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Speaker 1: for years and the only blocker was the head coach.

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Speaker 1: That's the main reason why Harbaugh left. He wouldn't want

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Speaker 1: to fire monket Now he doesn't get Monket at the

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Speaker 1: Giants and Monks going to the Browns. If I'm the Ravens,

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Speaker 1: I'm like, fuck yeah, it's one last team we got

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Speaker 1: to worry about in the division.

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Speaker 3: This is amazing. I think I think this is the

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Speaker 3: most fired up I've ever had, Chad. This is the

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Speaker 3: most Chad's ever cursed to start a podcast in our history.

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Speaker 3: And no doubt about it. I was just blow me away.

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Speaker 3: But hanging out sailors, Chad, You're just dropping f bombs.

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Speaker 3: Left and right this.

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Speaker 1: Morning, I'm so sick of incompetence. Man, I'm so sick

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Speaker 1: of public incompetence.

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Speaker 2: That's the world we live in now. Brother.

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Speaker 1: It just drives me nuts, it really does. Uh. We

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Speaker 1: got to get into it because we got a huge guest,

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Speaker 1: huge huge guest. You want to talk about pettiness in

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Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame, We're the opposite of that. We

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Speaker 1: don't do petty here. I'm Sharper Square. We we love

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Speaker 1: all of our friends. You're going to subscribe to Sharper

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Speaker 1: Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. Before we get to

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Speaker 1: our guests, let's get into this thing. Every week, we're

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Speaker 1: going to give out our picks. We started doing it

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Speaker 1: for the Super Bowl. Every week, the wise guys are

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Speaker 1: going to give Simon and earfeel about what we are saying.

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Speaker 1: Let's get too sharp.

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Speaker 2: Calls Hal to answer this boat all right.

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Speaker 1: Rain range telephone range.

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Speaker 2: Somebody said, maybe what you do man?

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Speaker 3: I wish I could have more exciting news, but I

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Speaker 3: think Chad started the top of the show with the

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Speaker 3: big news, right.

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Speaker 2: It's the Drake may Is.

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Speaker 3: He got to bump shoulder injury and it would explain

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Speaker 3: a lot if he did right, because it's the throwing

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Speaker 3: didn't make sense and you look back and it's like, well,

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Speaker 3: he did take huge hits like that, there's no doubt

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Speaker 3: about it. He got popped and he could've injured that shoulder. Sure,

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Speaker 3: they are being very hush rush about it. So I

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Speaker 3: would say most pros I talked about for our Tuesday

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Speaker 3: show before the news had really broke, We're like, I'm

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Speaker 3: I'm really going to lean.

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Speaker 2: Into heavily this New England.

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Speaker 3: Side they were. I feel like that was starting to

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Speaker 3: become the professional side. Now it's what it was we

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Speaker 3: talked on Tuesday. Right, it's a very split side. But

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Speaker 3: you have seen more money coming on the under for professionals,

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Speaker 3: even though the public has just been hammering the over. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: professional money has come in once again on the under.

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Speaker 1: So down to forty five and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So I think most guys are like me, where it's like,

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Speaker 3: all right, I'll take that position right early here. It's

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Speaker 3: I'm not rushing at that big amounts yet, just because

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Speaker 3: i want to have more fact. But it's someone that

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Speaker 3: was leaning towards the ender and leaning towards Seattle. I

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Speaker 3: really like both those positions now, and I would say

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Speaker 3: that the pros I do know that are hammering the

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Speaker 3: Seahawks now, they're just doing it just in case it

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Speaker 3: does come out that he does have a bump shoulder. Right.

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Speaker 3: I think the injury report's really wonky with Super Bowl week,

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Speaker 3: Like they don't really have to put anything official. They

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Speaker 3: can just put limited a practice or you know, whatever

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Speaker 3: they want to do. It's it's really going to be

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Speaker 3: about breaking down getting news from sources inside the media.

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Speaker 3: So that's what's gonna be really fun to watch and

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Speaker 3: follow these next couple weeks and every little thing, if

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Speaker 3: you know, Media day, if Drake May doesn't lift his

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Speaker 3: arm above his head, everyone's gonna be going, wow, that's

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Speaker 3: what we're about to be dealing with here next week.

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Speaker 3: So this is this week is always the calm before

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Speaker 3: the storm, right, this is before.

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Speaker 2: Media gets the Super Bowl row.

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Speaker 3: This is really this is like I said, coming to

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Speaker 3: this week, it's a week where people are just talking

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Speaker 3: about the quarterbacks and the coach and staff. So the

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Speaker 3: other teams that didn't make the playoffs, where most pros

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Speaker 3: I talked to betting this week, it's like yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I like this side, but I'm then no rush, Right,

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Speaker 3: I really I'm being patient to take a position, so

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Speaker 3: once again, it might it could change the next week.

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Speaker 3: With my early leans, like most professionals right now are

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Speaker 3: the Seahawks and the under and I would say the

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Speaker 3: professional side once again. Before the Drake May news came out,

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Speaker 3: it was looking like it was really gonna be the

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Speaker 3: Patriots again.

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Speaker 2: Well, we're gonna talk so much about this game.

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Speaker 3: I'll get more into that, but it's it's really about

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Speaker 3: the defense and Sam Darnold, which is a lot of

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Speaker 3: pros I've talked to hanging on that kind of trend

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Speaker 3: where it's like you're you're putting too much faith in

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Speaker 3: the Sam Darnald after one great game, which is fair. So,

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Speaker 3: like I said, it's gonna be a fun game to

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Speaker 3: keep breaking down this week. But I know I wish

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Speaker 3: you coming here in Sharper's sharp calls and be like, no,

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Speaker 3: the pros are saying hammer the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: None of that, none of that talk, none of that.

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Speaker 3: Even guys who are confident on the Seahawks are not

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Speaker 3: telling me to the bank roll them heavily. It's it's

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Speaker 3: really just about taking that position now because you might

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Speaker 3: get a better number than later on. So yeah, pretty

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Speaker 3: pretty timidweek here. Maybe we'll do sharp calls again next

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Speaker 3: week's exchange.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we will. I'm like you. I took

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Speaker 1: a position on the Patriots at three and a half,

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Speaker 1: I mean on the Seahawks at three and a half.

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Speaker 1: I bet the Patriot. I bet the Seahawks again at

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Speaker 1: four and a half, just because the juice was still

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Speaker 1: at minus one ten at one book and it was

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Speaker 1: moving at minus one twelve minus fifteen at other books,

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Speaker 1: So I just wanted to get minus one ten because

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Speaker 1: it looked like it was going up. Now it's pretty

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Speaker 1: much minus one fifteen everywhere and heading to that five.

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Speaker 1: It's really been moving since the last twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: from the Drake Maye news. Surprise, it hasn't moved more.

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Speaker 1: But also it just could be this is the week off,

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Speaker 1: and you know we'll get more activity next week when

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Speaker 1: when the bets start coming in and we start to

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Speaker 1: get more intel on Drake may All right, listen. Every

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Speaker 1: year in the lead up to the Super Bowl, we

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Speaker 1: record a very popular episode. We're going to dive into

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Speaker 1: the betting trends and data of the Super Bowl to

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Speaker 1: see what the past can tell us about this year's match.

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Speaker 2: Up.

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Speaker 1: Lots of listeners asked if we do it again this year,

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Speaker 1: and thanks to today's guest, we can and we are.

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Speaker 1: Let's bring him in. He's the original betting researcher, my

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Speaker 1: original betting researcher, our longtime friend, collaborator, colleague, the only

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Speaker 1: person namechecked on this show more than Bryce Young from

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Speaker 1: our old podcast, Home Action Network Director of Research and Media,

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Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, who says, who says, we're petty, not us,

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Speaker 1: not us, brother, Evan Abrams. Finally we get to see

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Speaker 1: the face with the name.

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Speaker 5: Honestly, I'm shocked that we're we're just not going to

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Speaker 5: talk Belichick and the fan Skimore like that's how we're

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Speaker 5: doing here. I figured we would just go into that

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Speaker 5: more because I had a lot to say. But we

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Speaker 5: have a big game, so let's get into the nuts

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Speaker 5: and bolts of it. But I mean, that Belichick thing,

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Speaker 5: the thing that kills me the most, and I'll I'll

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Speaker 5: just leave it here. I'll say one thing.

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Speaker 4: It hurts the.

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Speaker 5: Coaches next year too, because you've got like Mike and

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Speaker 5: all these other people kind of slated to be in there,

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Speaker 5: and now it's Belichick's time. A year later, it's just

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Speaker 5: a Mets. All right, super Bowl?

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Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, let me ask you a question.

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Speaker 1: By the way, Yeah, Evan also at Indiana University alumnus.

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Speaker 1: Congratulations to you and my friend.

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Speaker 4: Congratulations us.

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Speaker 1: Congratulations to us for living it, breathing it, being it,

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Speaker 1: having the greatest week of our lives. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if I even said this to sign then did I

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Speaker 1: say this on Tuesday Show? Like? I was at a

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Speaker 1: party on Saturday night and constantly the whole it was

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Speaker 1: the greatest night of my life because because I don't

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Speaker 1: really like to go to parties, and the whole night

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Speaker 1: all anybody wanted to talk to me about was Indiana,

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Speaker 1: so I got to relive the experience over and over

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Speaker 1: and over again. The only guy who didn't want to

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Speaker 1: talk to me about Indiana happens to be a dude

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Speaker 1: who just coincidentally grew up in my hometown in Highland

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Speaker 1: Park and lives around the corner from me. He's older

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Speaker 1: than I am, but I graduated from high school with

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Speaker 1: his sisters, so I know him a little bit. He's

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Speaker 1: a massive Cubs fan and a massive Bears fan. So

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Speaker 1: I turned around, I was talking to a guy about

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Speaker 1: Indiana and as soon as I turned around, I saw

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Speaker 1: this guy and he's like, dude, Alex Bregman, and so

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Speaker 1: then we just spent thirty five minutes talking about the

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Speaker 1: Bears and the Cubs, and then I got to talk

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Speaker 1: about Indiana some more. And someone said to me, and

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Speaker 1: I said to someone, I think it might be the

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Speaker 1: happiest week of my life. And they're like, that's saying

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Speaker 1: something like professional accomplishments, family whatever. Here was my comment,

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Speaker 1: those other things. You know, we sold action. That was amazing, right,

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Speaker 1: but it also comes with so much relief because you

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Speaker 1: work so hard, you're nervous, you don't know what's going

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Speaker 1: to happen. You get married, Evan, you know this simon

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Speaker 1: one day you will know this, Like it comes with

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Speaker 1: a lot of joy, you're so happy, but it's also

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Speaker 1: like anxiety and fear. Same with kids, like oh my god,

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Speaker 1: this is amazing, but you're also like, holy fuck, this

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Speaker 1: was just unfettered joy. I had no expectations. I didn't

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Speaker 1: have to do anything. I just had to receive the

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Speaker 1: happiness and that's it, and it is. I'm still coming

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Speaker 1: down from it, Like I'm still texting with Matt and

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Speaker 1: Nandy about things we've been buying since since since the

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Speaker 1: UH since Indiana with the title Evan, congrats.

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Speaker 4: Thank you, congrats to you as well.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I've had people reach out to me wanting

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Speaker 5: to go to like the game next year, like people

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Speaker 5: are trying to buy tickets to go to Bloomington, like

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Speaker 5: this is this is just next, so.

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Speaker 4: I can't wait.

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Speaker 1: All right, here's my question for you. Yeah, we talk

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Speaker 1: about trends all the time. I love the trends, but

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Speaker 1: I give Simon a hard time about this. Sometimes trends

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Speaker 1: without telling me which ones are more important than I

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Speaker 1: should lean into, just feel like they can be confusing

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Speaker 1: and too much, and I can find a trend to

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Speaker 1: back anything and just have a self fulfilling prophecy. I

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Speaker 1: need you to tell me why I should believe some

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Speaker 1: trends and which ones are more important.

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Speaker 2: To me.

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Speaker 4: Personally.

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Speaker 5: In my opinion, I am the best storyteller. I say, like,

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Speaker 5: I can really push you any direction you want to go.

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Speaker 1: And I don't want to go a direction. I want

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Speaker 1: to know.

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Speaker 4: Whoa I'm trying to set up here. Okay, so do

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Speaker 4: you to deal with Evan?

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Speaker 5: This guy is brutal, He's just on top I mean, okay,

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Speaker 5: so listen, listen. I think the setup is is the

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Speaker 5: more on field trends, like the one about young quarterbacks

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Speaker 5: versus Mike McDonald.

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Speaker 4: I feel like that has more.

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Speaker 5: Sustenance, more substance than maybe some of the others, like

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Speaker 5: the underdog stuff of the past, which we can go

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Speaker 5: into a second. I think that's somewhat intriguing, like maybe

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Speaker 5: the favorites are getting inflated, et cetera, et cetera, But

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Speaker 5: those are previous games, Like it's fun to talk about.

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Speaker 5: But I do feel like the on field stuff, like

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Speaker 5: there's something fun about the total when you look at

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Speaker 5: how fast these teams play, Like there's certain trends like

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Speaker 5: that on field that I think you would call like

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Speaker 5: level one and then a lot of the other stuff

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Speaker 5: Level two, level three. But to me, if you're going

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Speaker 5: to focus on anything, it's all of the stats that

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Speaker 5: are like the well, I think it's the Seahawks who

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Speaker 5: haven't allowed like one hundred yard rusher in like twenty

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Speaker 5: five games. Those are the thing, yeah, a twenty seven games,

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Speaker 5: So those are the stats to me, you hold in

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Speaker 5: level one and then all the other stuff kind of

399
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Speaker 5: gets mixed in below, Like I can the one in

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Speaker 5: seventeen stat when a team has a better win percentage

401
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Speaker 5: entering the Super Bowl than their opponent, damn shocking, except

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Speaker 5: for the fact that this year it's the Patriots because

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Speaker 5: they've played an extra game. So it's like, Okay, that's

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Speaker 5: a stat, but who really cares about that, So it's

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Speaker 5: not really one I've used when talking about this game

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Speaker 5: because I think you need to be a little educated

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Speaker 5: and find out what's important and just weed out the rest.

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Speaker 4: So you're right. But that's why I also feed you

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Speaker 4: goddamn everything.

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Speaker 1: I love it. That is such a good answer. I

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Speaker 1: miss evan assignment.

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Speaker 3: Trends and stats, Chad. They're literally no different. When you

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Speaker 3: give out stats, you're doing the exact same thing. You're saying, well,

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Speaker 3: these are meaningful stats.

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Speaker 2: No they're not.

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Speaker 3: You're just trying to pint your picture the best way

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Speaker 3: you can. So the same thing with trends. I as

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Speaker 3: much as I get where you're coming from. With trends,

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Speaker 3: I try to give them out because it's an easier

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Speaker 3: way for the general public to break down and comprehend

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Speaker 3: different things than it is if I just hit you

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Speaker 3: with get off speed stats of d Lineman or block

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Speaker 3: rates of offensivelignment that just goes one year out the other.

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Speaker 3: But if I can tell someone, hey, this team here,

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Speaker 3: the Patriots in this spot are one and eight historically

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Speaker 3: over the last sixty years, that's just so much easier

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Speaker 3: to digest. So that's why, again I'm not saying I'm

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Speaker 3: dumbing it down for the audience, but I'm dumbing it

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Speaker 3: down for myself where it's like it kind of pulls

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Speaker 3: you back in where it's like, stop overthinking this stuff,

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Speaker 3: look at the historical trends.

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Speaker 2: So that's why I love what Evan does.

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Speaker 3: Right, he finds little nuggets that you would never think

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Speaker 3: of and it kind of changes your mindset of It's like, well,

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Speaker 3: I didn't think of that way. I didn't look at

436
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 3: the game that way. So that's the thing. I'm like, huge,

437
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:28,680
Speaker 3: I don't live and die with trends. Are they twenty

438
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 3: percent of the equation for me? Maybe a little less,

439
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 3: But it's just something for me that if I already

440
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,480
Speaker 3: like a side and multiple trends lean to that side

441
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 3: as well, that's gonna send off alarm bells where it's like, Okay,

442
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 3: there is something to this historically.

443
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 2: So that's why I love what Evan does.

444
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 3: Again, Evan puts in some tough work because I've tried

445
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 3: to dive into the trends Evan since we lost your buddy,

446
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 3: and it's a lot of digging through a lot of bullshit.

447
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 3: Right there's a lot of dumb trends out there and

448
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 3: trying to find the ones that are meaningful and actually

449
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 3: have some good data behind it. It's it's not easy.

450
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 3: So once again I had tipped to you, buddy, I

451
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 3: really love what you do.

452
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 4: And I'm like, Bob Ross, that's what I said. I'm

453
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 4: just painting you a picture.

454
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 1: I like, Simon. I like the way you just framed it.

455
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 2: Though.

456
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 1: That is a good way to consolidate a shitload of information,

457
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 1: And if people are coming to the show and they

458
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 1: already trust what we're saying, then the trend just sort

459
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 1: of puts it in a neat package that people can

460
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,160
Speaker 1: share that data, they can do it in a conversation,

461
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 1: but also is a little bit of a good summary

462
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 1: of why we're leaning one way or the other. Okay,

463
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 1: I'm more accepting now, Evan, make a smarter make me

464
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 1: feel good about the Seahawks right now, or or tell

465
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 1: me it's not too late. And I got to go

466
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 1: to the Patriots, but give me something.

467
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 5: I mean from this top, I feel like so, I

468
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,400
Speaker 5: guess the biggest point of conversation when you talk at

469
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 5: the top of the spear would be the success of

470
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 5: underdogs in the Super Bowl recently. But to me, that's

471
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,439
Speaker 5: not going to make you feel good about Seattle. But

472
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 5: to me, it's again, it's just the past. It hasn't

473
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 5: very little to do, most likely with this game, aside

474
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 5: from the fact that the line if you think it's inflated, right,

475
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 5: like if you think the super Bowl should be three,

476
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 5: but it's sitting at four and a half, Seattle winning

477
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 5: the game by three and you covering the spread has

478
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 5: been something that's happened historically, right, So if you go

479
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 5: back thirty years, going back to Super Bowl thirty, we've

480
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 5: only seen sixteen games that have closed four and a

481
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 5: half or more. The underdog is twelve twelve, two and

482
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 5: two ats in those games.

483
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 2: But I believe the underdog.

484
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 5: But I believe the underdog is only won seven of

485
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 5: those games outright, So what tends to happen is like

486
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 5: what happened in that Rams Bengal Super Bowl, right line,

487
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:48,199
Speaker 5: four and a half game ends on three. So I

488
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,679
Speaker 5: think if you're betting New England, I think it's not

489
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 5: even about can we win the game because basically in

490
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 5: that scenario it's happening forty five forty percent of the time.

491
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 5: What it's saying is is how close can we be

492
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 5: in the game and can you get inside that zone?

493
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 5: So I think a lot of people out there are

494
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 5: even looking at Seattle to win the game by one

495
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 5: to six points. You're getting a much better line, and

496
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 5: if you think it's going to be a tight one

497
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:11,959
Speaker 5: in Seattle, comes away with it.

498
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 4: I've heard that bet out there before.

499
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 1: I like that Seattle one to six points. And Simon

500
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 1: we talked the other day taking some outlines on Seattle

501
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: because you know, you said, you have this game power

502
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 1: rated closer to six and a half or seven, So

503
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 1: that feels like the one to six kind of feels

504
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: like a good middle ground. And we get that opportunity

505
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 1: with the super Bowl that we don't normally get with

506
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:42,640
Speaker 1: some of these regular season games.

507
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's I mean, you pretty much now my point

508
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 3: of if you're going to betting this one on the Seahawks, especially, you're.

509
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 2: Betting a blowout.

510
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: Honestly, like, if you if you do think they're going

511
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,399
Speaker 3: to win this game. It's just these these type of

512
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 3: big spreads. It's either gonna be a really close one

513
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 3: like Evan just said, or what I think the Silks

514
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 3: are just gonna stually roll this team just across the

515
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 3: board offensively, defensively. So that's something I'm gonna keep talking about.

516
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 3: Betting the ALLT lines, right, the minus six and a half.

517
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 3: If you don't want to bet the minus one fifteen

518
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 3: and the four and a half, there really is no

519
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 3: like the odds of this lining on five are so small,

520
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 3: Like it just is not happy the NFL historically, like

521
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 3: even going to the regular season. So to me, that's

522
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,919
Speaker 3: why I talked about that the minus six and a half.

523
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 3: Eat down some of that juice if you want. But

524
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 3: like I said, I got no issue betting the minus

525
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 3: four and a half. But I just I like betting

526
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:30,360
Speaker 3: the ALLT lines.

527
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 1: Like Chad said, Evan, you have an interesting stat and

528
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: I would encourage everybody if they want to be the

529
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 1: smartest people at this year's Super Bowl party. Check out

530
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: Evan's annual article, the Action super Bowl sixty Betting Primer.

531
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 1: You've probably seen all the stats all over Twitter because

532
00:25:53,520 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 1: it gets stolen from but and never credited. But we're

533
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 1: crediting in it here.

534
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 4: You know why you're the best.

535
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 2: You're the best all, not.

536
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 1: The best classiest. The New England Patriots did not cover

537
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 1: in the Conference championship game. The Seattle Seahawks did cover

538
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 1: in the Conference championship game. What is the trend we

539
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 1: need to be looking out for in that scenario?

540
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I found this kind of intriguing. So since the

541
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 5: NFL merger in nineteen seventy, teams to fail to cover

542
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 5: the spread in the Conference championship game are four and

543
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 5: ten straight up, two eleven and one against the spread

544
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 5: in the Super Bowl, that is the New England Patriots.

545
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 5: Since Seattle did cover against the Rams, I was worried

546
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 5: there in those final few minutes looking at the math

547
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 5: of that Rams Seahawks a game, being like, Seattle really

548
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 5: going to win this game by two points and now

549
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 5: both aren't going to cover.

550
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 4: But that of course did not happen. So I find

551
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 4: it just intriguing.

552
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 5: Because it's probably a little bit of a predictive element

553
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 5: in just the fact that the team that didn't cover

554
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 5: the Conference championship maybe not power rated high, maybe not

555
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 5: playing as well, but I would also say they are

556
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 5: usually probably a little bit of a bigger favorite, Right,

557
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,199
Speaker 5: I would have assumed the teams in that spot had

558
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 5: been favored by six or seven points and won by

559
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,360
Speaker 5: three or four versus three and a half and win

560
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 5: by three. So I think this year it's a little

561
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 5: cherry picky. But I also think there is a tiny

562
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 5: bit of a predictive element to it.

563
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,120
Speaker 4: So I've found that kind of intriguing.

564
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, a little bit of it's the line swung seven

565
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 3: points because of a quarterback injury, which is also incredibly

566
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 3: rare and immediately, like I said, every pro I know

567
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 3: is like that. That moved way too much and the

568
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 3: books you're about to get crushed. If if people sharpened

569
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 3: up and took that Denver side, Lucky for them, they

570
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 3: kept hammering the Patriots, right, They're like, well, it's a

571
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 3: backup quarterback. Why would I not hammer Drake mehes So

572
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,199
Speaker 3: it's I'll look more into that stack because that is

573
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 3: an interesting stat where it's like, what woul the circumstances

574
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 3: leading up to that? Where did the one team become overrated?

575
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: Like me and Chad talked about the Rams, they went

576
00:27:58,160 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 3: zero with three in the playoffs, against the spread.

577
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 2: That also has never happened before, right, So it was like.

578
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, they did become too have heavily inflated overrated as

579
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 3: we ended towards the end of the season. You know,

580
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 3: are we saying that's the same here with this Patriots team?

581
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 2: Now? Right?

582
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 3: They covered their first two games, but that last game

583
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 3: I felt right on the number, and me and Chad

584
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 3: joke they easily because I lost that game as well.

585
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 3: So we have at a point where the Patriots have

586
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 3: started to become a little overrated at this point, so

587
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 3: to me, like I talked about it, when you're get

588
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 3: out these stats, if you just blindly bet the dog

589
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 3: of the Super Bowl, like Evan said, you're gonna do

590
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 3: pretty well. But you don't want to do that here, right,

591
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:34,439
Speaker 3: You want to you really want to dive into this

592
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 3: week because this is a different dog than dogs in

593
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 3: the past. This is not some dog that nobody believes

594
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 3: in or you know, they're totally left for dead, right,

595
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: This is a little different circumstance.

596
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: You guys have both brought up something really interesting. Could

597
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 1: a team be overvalued? Could a team be undervalued when

598
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: it gets to this point in the season, and it's

599
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 1: hard to imagine that they could be because we've now

600
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: got what twenty games, twenty one game games that these

601
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: teams have played, but the season changes so much. Simon,

602
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 1: we've talked about have we reached peak Patriots. I don't

603
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: know that we've reached peak Seahawks. Break it down a

604
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 1: little bit more about the power ratings, Like you said,

605
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 1: you have this game six and a half seven, Like,

606
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 1: is that based on the Seahawks improving their power rating

607
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 1: as we got to the end of the year and

608
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 1: their defense forget about Donald, their defense just started to

609
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 1: get much better.

610
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 3: That did and downgrade and other teams, right, like moving

611
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 3: the Rams down. Like I talked about coming into the playoffs,

612
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 3: and the biggest thing for me what I look for

613
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 3: in the playoffs is is a team just simply rolling teams?

614
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 3: Like are they just literally dominate teams like the Eagles

615
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 3: last year? Right the Eagles, you could say, well, they

616
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 3: had a slow game a little bit against Green Bay

617
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 3: or the Rams, but then Washington they really took off

618
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 3: and then you saw that carry into the game against

619
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 3: the Chiefs. Obviously, this Seahawks team has just been an

620
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 3: absolute role especially in the playoffs.

621
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,239
Speaker 2: Right, they dominated the forty nine or that rams him.

622
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can't say they dominated, right, their defense had

623
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: some laps, but offensively they rolled.

624
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 2: They were great offensively.

625
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 3: So those are things I'm looking for when I'm betting

626
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 3: a big number this big I want to see a

627
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 3: team that's rolling, not just offensively, defensively special teams and

628
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 3: they they fit all that criteria right now. Like, honestly,

629
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 3: you could say the biggest question is Sam Donald and

630
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 3: he's coming off his best game we've seen in his career.

631
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 3: So that to me, it's like that's giving me more

632
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 3: confidence because it's we talk all the time. These guys

633
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 3: all have the talent, Do they have the right headspace?

634
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 2: Right? Is he in the right headspace?

635
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 3: And he seems like he's in it, Like I don't

636
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 3: know if you saw clips from the game, and do

637
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 3: you watch the NFL like miked up chat.

638
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: At all or yeah, yeah, yeah totally. I was gonna

639
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: mention one so.

640
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 3: Cool right now, like his coolness. I mean he is

641
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 3: waving to fans during the game, like Sam Donald just

642
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 3: seems like he is very comfortable in this offense on

643
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 3: that team, believing in himself, and that just gives me

644
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 3: a ton of confidence because we haven't talked much about it,

645
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 3: but like the nerds who have dove into the this matchup,

646
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 3: the Patriots have played like four good quarterbacks, one of

647
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 3: them being you know, two of them being I should

648
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 3: say Josh Allen. One of them grade wise was Gino Smith.

649
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 3: Gino Smith had an above average grade. I mean again,

650
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 3: this was Week one. Yeah, you just go through it.

651
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 3: They've played so much trash of the quarterback position. It's

652
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 3: really hard to figure out. Is the Patriots defense legit?

653
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 3: Are they at top five, top ten defense or is

654
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 3: this because of their their path right? Because they did

655
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 3: have two outdoor games at home against banged up offensive lines,

656
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 3: and they went on the road and played a backup

657
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 3: quarterback in the elements Like that, to me is why

658
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 3: I think this number has been overrated, Like I think

659
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 3: the public, betters and everyone they're overrating this Patriots defense

660
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 3: way too much, giving them a point and a half

661
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 3: to two points here. So that's what I'm hoping that

662
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 3: Evan has more trends here that keeps giving more confidence

663
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 3: seal because I keep finding little things like that where

664
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 3: it's like my god, the numbers just show Yes, the

665
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 3: Patriots have been good against bad quarterbacks, they get rolled

666
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 3: offensively good against good quarter My coach.

667
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 1: Heen no, no, Evan, you're our guest.

668
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 2: Yeah one have yeah, no one.

669
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 5: The one thing I think is kind of interesting is

670
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 5: obviously everywhere you look you hear Patriots strength to schedule.

671
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 5: I think Seahawks strength to schedule is also just as

672
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 5: important in this game. I look this up, only eleven

673
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 5: of one hundred and twenty Super Bowl teams had a

674
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 5: harder strength of schedule than the Seahawks. Those eleven teams

675
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 5: win eight and three in the Super Bowl.

676
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 4: So I also kind.

677
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 2: Of blame like that stat that's a good step.

678
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 5: I love that, Yeah, yeah, because I do think like

679
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 5: the Patriots side of this is getting all the attention,

680
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,959
Speaker 5: and believe me, I could feed you Patriots stuff right

681
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 5: now that would show they would win the game. But

682
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 5: I do feel like it's the Seahawks stuff and who

683
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 5: they've had to go through and how well Donald's played. Right,

684
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 5: if you look at the single postseason, I believe Donald

685
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 5: has the fourth highest passer rating of any quarterback all time.

686
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 5: You look on the other side, Drake may one hundred

687
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 5: and thirteen passer rating during the regular season down to

688
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 5: eighty four in the playoffs. I don't really care why

689
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 5: that's happened, but I also think that's into why the

690
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 5: line maybe isn't three and it's even four and a

691
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 5: half and five in getting juiced up at the moment.

692
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 5: So I think the differences between what you're seeing from

693
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 5: both sides of the field on offense is the reason

694
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 5: this game has kind of progressed the way it has.

695
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: As well that that Evan is a great great stat

696
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: Speaking of the NFL films, I saw this. You know,

697
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, their offensive line last year was terrible and

698
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 1: it was one of the reasons why people had them

699
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 1: in last place in the NFC West this year. It's

700
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: why their Super Bowl odds were longer than the Arizona

701
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 1: Cardinals this year. Then they drafted Greys Abel, and Greys

702
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 1: Abel has been a brilliant offensive lineman for them this year.

703
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: And one of my favorite things that I saw from

704
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 1: the NFL films clips was Grey's Abel and Leonard Williams

705
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 1: sitting on the bench during the game and Greys Abel saying,

706
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 1: Leonard Williams, You've got to stop using your spin move

707
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 1: because they're bringing help to you when you are using

708
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: your spin move. If you just use your power move

709
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,240
Speaker 1: and slide into the B gap, you've got a straight

710
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 1: line to the quarterback and Letard Williams like no one

711
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 1: had noticed it, and Gray's Abel's just sitting there and

712
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 1: sends it to him. Letter Williams does that on the

713
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:19,840
Speaker 1: next drive and get and sacks the quarterback. And it

714
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 1: was so cool to see that in game communication and

715
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 1: then see from a rookie to a veteran and then

716
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 1: see the veteran actually execute on it, and then go

717
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 1: over and just shake his hand and to thank you

718
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 1: very much for that. I don't know if you guys

719
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 1: saw that, but it was amazing.

720
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 3: Now I love that and mean the coolest to me,

721
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,320
Speaker 3: especially I'm giving Drake May. It was Drake May and

722
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 3: Josh McDaniel's having a very human moment on the bench

723
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 3: was basically Drake May was talking about how hard the

724
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 3: game was. Josh Bim was just just like, bro, like

725
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,240
Speaker 3: you have six minutes from like being a hero forever,

726
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 3: Like this is the exact moment we live for.

727
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 1: Hard.

728
00:34:54,800 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 3: I know, let me, it's gonna be hard, but look,

729
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 3: this will be the vote rewarding six and a half

730
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 3: minutes of our lives.

731
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 2: If we can get it done, you.

732
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 1: Know what I mean?

733
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 2: And like I don't know about you. I got like

734
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 2: chills watching because it's like, dude, that got me fired up.

735
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 2: Where it's you.

736
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,359
Speaker 3: Your whole life leads up to these moments. Can you

737
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 3: keep your composure in that final six minutes? And the

738
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 3: Drake may will be legendar if they win the Super Bowl.

739
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 3: The Drake may bootleg on tooking on his own call.

740
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 3: That will live in infancy for the Patriots if they

741
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 3: do win the Super Bowl, him making his own call

742
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 3: there and getting that first down. So that was again

743
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 3: in NFL films, they just they're the best. They do

744
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 3: it the best every year. And that was some really

745
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 3: cool moments. Like Chad said, the between all the stuff

746
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 3: of the Seahawks and you know, the big thing for

747
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,840
Speaker 3: them was DeMarcus Lawrence and pre saw that Chad dropping

748
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 3: in the coverage against Kerrey and Williams and shutting down

749
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 3: to the play. McVeigh couldn't go over how insane that

750
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 3: play was. And uh yeah, the both these matches, like

751
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 3: we said, it's it's gonna be really tough to make

752
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 3: a pick.

753
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 1: Let's pause for a sec here from our friends at

754
00:35:54,000 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 1: Z biotics. Gentlemen, only one game left this ball season.

755
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,120
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756
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 1: time watching the big game with our friends and family,

757
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 1: making beds, pouring drinks. Despite all of our incredible good looks,

758
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: we just don't bounce back like we used to. And

759
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 1: I'm a huge morning guy. Sometimes we've had to choose

760
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761
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769
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:10,320
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770
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 1: your best tomorrow. Matt Mitchell, you enjoyed your experience on

771
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 1: Sunday night right.

772
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 2: I sure did.

773
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,760
Speaker 6: Bills not playing so I was able to have a lovely,

774
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 6: relaxed NFL Sunday with my friends and family and neighbors,

775
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 6: over enjoying it here in Wisconsin, the heaviest drinking state

776
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 6: in the Union by a lot. I love that it

777
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Speaker 6: comes in this little fancy package. I thought they'd be

778
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 6: like packets, but like now they're come in this little

779
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780
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Speaker 6: glass vials. Shot one down an hour before I started drinking,

781
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 6: enjoyed myself, had a great time, slept all night, the

782
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 6: dreamless sleep of a Bills fan in a high leverage

783
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 6: playoff evening. Ben woke up, felt great, made pancakes, talk

784
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 6: to my dad. Really had like a surprisingly lovely, cheery

785
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786
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 6: I loved it. I will definitely be making it part

787
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Speaker 6: of my kind of drinking routine moving forward.

788
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 1: Enjoy the biggest games of the season without sacrificing an

789
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,880
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Speaker 1: code sharper square at checkout for fifteen percent off. All right, Evan,

798
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:04,280
Speaker 1: give us some more Where you digging deep? What should

799
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 1: we be looking out for, whether it's MVP odds. I

800
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 1: know there's a little joke going around with you and

801
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, like you're, you know, two old buddies laughing

802
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,399
Speaker 1: at me. What are we missing here?

803
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 5: All right, So I've got a bunch of pro Seattle stuff,

804
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 5: but we're going to hold that off for a second

805
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 5: because I do want to talk about Super Bowl MVP.

806
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 5: I had heard through the gravevines you were interested in

807
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 5: Rashid Shiheid.

808
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 1: You know, fuck you and fuck Matt Mitchell.

809
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 5: I just to me, it's a little bit of an

810
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 5: over valued situation. I think his odds are kind of

811
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 5: baked into what he brings to the table, obviously rushing,

812
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 5: obviously receiving the returning. Like there's different ways for him

813
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 5: to impact this game and Seattle special teams, Like if

814
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,320
Speaker 5: you had to rank the six units in this game.

815
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:53,280
Speaker 5: Seattle Special teams very much near the top, so especially

816
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 5: compared to maybe what New England has brought to the table,

817
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 5: even though they haven't been as bad as like say

818
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 5: the Rams. So from just a Super Bowl VP standpoint,

819
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,359
Speaker 5: I feel like one of the interesting ones when you

820
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 5: just look at the board is Jackson Smith Nijigba, Like

821
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 5: usually we're not seeing, at least it's happened more recently.

822
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 4: A wide receiver that low in the odds.

823
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 5: If you go back to two thousand and three, I

824
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 5: have him around five to one Nijigba right now in

825
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 5: the market consensus, it'd be the second lowest price for

826
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:23,279
Speaker 5: a wide receiver behind just Larry Fitzgerald at four to

827
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 5: one in two thousand and eight.

828
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 4: So really in terms.

829
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 5: Of the success that he's had this season, the seventeen

830
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 5: hundred plus yards, and it was just really it was

831
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 5: either going to be him or Pooka that was probably

832
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 5: going to be priced in this range, no matter who

833
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 5: won that other game.

834
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 4: So I found that one intrigue, and here's one more

835
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 4: for you. In terms of Super Bowl MVP.

836
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 5: The thing that I found interesting was so the Patriots

837
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 5: are plus four and a half in the game. But

838
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 5: you look at the market and Drake May is just

839
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 5: plus two forty, so a bit of a short price

840
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 5: for a quarterback who is already like two to one

841
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 5: to win the game. So since two thousand and three,

842
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 5: we've had twelve quarterbacks at plus three and a half

843
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 5: or higher in the Super Bowl, only three had been

844
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 5: listed below three to one to win the award. Drake

845
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 5: May this year, Joe Burrow in twenty twenty one, and

846
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 5: Joe Flacco in twenty twelve.

847
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 4: That's it. Obviously one did it and one didn't.

848
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 5: But I feel like in terms of the price in

849
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 5: what you're getting, we talked, me and Raymond talked about this, Like,

850
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,919
Speaker 5: I think Donald and nijigba good value on the Super

851
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 5: Bowl MVP.

852
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 4: I don't think it's so with Drake May.

853
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,280
Speaker 5: I could see a lot of scenarios where someone else

854
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 5: wins the award in that game.

855
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 4: But that's my opinion.

856
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's been skewed, like even last year.

857
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,280
Speaker 3: As much as I love saying Johan Hurd's Super Bowl MVP,

858
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 3: should they giving it to a defensive player on the Eagles?

859
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 2: I mean that argument is very heavy. The reason I.

860
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:44,800
Speaker 3: Feels is because it's a QB league, And at the

861
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 3: end of the day, that's the hardest part with making

862
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 3: these Super Bowl future bets, especially MVPs. It's like, shouldn't

863
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 3: we just blindly bet Sam Donald, Like isn't that just

864
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 3: the move? Like instead of if you're thinking about taking

865
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 3: the Seahawks money line, I would suppose, like I said

866
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 3: last year, just I guess just take take them and

867
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:03,399
Speaker 3: just put it on Sam darnld MVP odds. But it's

868
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 3: been tough, like every year for the defensive player or

869
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 3: a wide receiver or running back to win it, they

870
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,720
Speaker 3: have to go so far above and beyond.

871
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 2: And that's that's the toughest part.

872
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 3: And now shocked by the dad, I can't believe Cooper

873
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 3: Cup in twenty twenty one wasn't put six fifty, okay,

874
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 3: because I just remember that was like the greatest receiver

875
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 3: season we've ever seen. But yeah, that makes sense, right

876
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 3: because it's you got the staff for Joe Burrow effect

877
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 3: that's going to bump that number down.

878
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 5: I also think there's one thing with Nijigba is his flair.

879
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 5: Like the one handed catch he had in the NFC

880
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 5: title Game, he is going to most likely bring a

881
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 5: play like that to the game that you're going to

882
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,720
Speaker 5: remember that plus one hundred yards.

883
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:41,919
Speaker 4: Even if say he scores.

884
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 5: One touchdown, that actually might be enough if Donald throws

885
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 5: a pick, which he's like minus one forty two.

886
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 4: So it really depends on how the game plays out.

887
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 5: But it was interesting to kind of think about what

888
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,440
Speaker 5: Donald would have to do to not win the award

889
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 5: and yet have one of his receivers win the award. Like,

890
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 5: even if Cooper Cupp caught two touchdowns, he's not in

891
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:02,439
Speaker 5: a situation where he's going to go for one hundred yards.

892
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 4: It's not his game.

893
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 5: So does eighty yards, sixty yards and two touchdowns win

894
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 5: Cup the award? Still probably not. It's just it's an

895
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 5: interesting scenario to kind of walk yourself through.

896
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 1: I think to be a receiver and win the award,

897
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 1: you need multiple touchdowns and you need probably one hundred

898
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: and twenty yards receiving. I don't know what.

899
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 2: Randall l no Edelman too.

900
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 5: Edelman won like ten receptions. He I don't think he

901
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:32,800
Speaker 5: scored in the game. I think he had ten receptions

902
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 5: like one hundred yards and that was just enough.

903
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 3: You said he had to catch right the Remember he

904
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 3: got hit by three different guys. That's true, the ball

905
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 3: and kept it and that was the defining play, right

906
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 3: That was when people really bring up why they won

907
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 3: that game.

908
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like, if you're gonna win MVP as a non quarterback,

909
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 1: you kind of need the guy that god moment that

910
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 1: yeah like, and and you know, JSN wouldn't have gotten

911
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 1: it out of the conference championship game. If I have

912
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,240
Speaker 1: been the Super Bowl, it would have been Sam Donald.

913
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:05,399
Speaker 1: As great as JSN was, it still would have been

914
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 1: Sam Donald because to your point earlier, Simon, even on

915
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 1: that play where JSN caught the touchdown at the end

916
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: of the first half, Donald had guys in his face,

917
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:16,880
Speaker 1: he rolled out, he's got an injured Obleiaque, and he

918
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 1: threw a perfect pass to a guy who had schemed

919
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:22,840
Speaker 1: wide open. And that's not what we've seen from Sam Donald.

920
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 1: And if that's what he's going to be Sam Donald.

921
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 1: By the way, I think he opened it plus one

922
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: point thirty five. He's down to about plus one twenty

923
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 1: five now, so not crazy movement yet, Like still going

924
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 1: to be better on the money line than betting the

925
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 1: Seahawks at you know, two to one or whatever or

926
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 1: one to two. Right now, so.

927
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 3: Chad saying last year the Chiefs were minus won the

928
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 3: half right chat at the Super Bowl, Mahomes was like

929
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 3: minus one twenty minus one fifteen MVP odds right.

930
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 5: Donald also has a story, I mean the story behind

931
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 5: what Sam Donald's done to get here. I mean it's

932
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,040
Speaker 5: Disney World written all over it, unless he throws a

933
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:01,839
Speaker 5: bunch of interceptions or fumbles the ball.

934
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 1: Look, we all know how fucking stupid these sports writers

935
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 1: are and falling for a narrative and deciding they're the

936
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 1: ones who determine what history and fate is. So God

937
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:14,600
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938
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:18,400
Speaker 1: you know what we're gonna do. We're gonna do a

939
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:20,279
Speaker 1: quick break from hard Rock and then we're gonna come

940
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:22,839
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Speaker 1: and Virginia. All right, f you've given us some Seahawks friends.

971
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: Anything you're leaving on the table that might make us

972
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 1: feel really good before we get to the Patriots.

973
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:22,280
Speaker 2: Yeah.

974
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 5: So, first of all, I feel like I'm coming off

975
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 5: of a purple elevator to hard rock casino after that.

976
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:29,759
Speaker 4: That was fantastic, Chad. I will say this is the

977
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 4: one that.

978
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 1: Hasn't complemented my hard rock reads once.

979
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 4: I'll see now was elevator music. It was just beautiful.

980
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:37,480
Speaker 4: I was dancing over here.

981
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 5: I think Seattle being somewhat dominant entering this game is

982
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 5: a good conversation. I look at it obviously from a

983
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 5: gambling standpoint. But they've won nine straight, they've covered four straight.

984
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 5: Only four other teams have even done that nine straight

985
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 5: and four straight, nine straight wins, four straight covers. Entering

986
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:58,439
Speaker 5: a Super Bowl twenty sixteen seventeen, Patriots barely survive ors

987
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 5: the Falcons but won the gaming covered two thousand. Ravens

988
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 5: blew out the Giants, nineteen eighty six Giants blew out

989
00:48:05,160 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 5: the Broncos, seventy one Cowboys blew out the Dolphins. So

990
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 5: those teams nine went straight wins, four straight covers, four

991
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 5: and oh straight up four and oh against the spread

992
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 5: in the Super Bowl.

993
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 4: Look if you if you.

994
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 5: Think Seattle's dominant, that's the stat you want to hear,

995
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 5: like they're just gonna roll away with this one.

996
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 1: That also speaks to what Simon was just talking about.

997
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that was I had that stat. I just

998
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:28,279
Speaker 2: I didn't give it out because I just wanted to

999
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:28,879
Speaker 2: look very smart.

1000
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 3: But that was the stat I found very early on

1001
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 3: where it's like, okay, there's some history of data back

1002
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 3: up this run the Sayawks teams on.

1003
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 2: Because that right right away popped in my head. It's like,

1004
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:37,239
Speaker 2: how we had a.

1005
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 3: Team going this type of run with they've just been

1006
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:42,480
Speaker 3: steamrolling teams, And like Evan said, once I start appeeling

1007
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 3: back to currents, it's like, oh my god, every team

1008
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:47,319
Speaker 3: like this just dominates the Super Bowl. Doesn't matter if

1009
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 3: their team they played against, is they even just as good.

1010
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 3: They've just every time they got there, they've just been

1011
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 3: that much better. So great, great Statvan.

1012
00:48:56,080 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 1: That's that. Just hold on a second. What was that

1013
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 1: that was eight and three against the spread? Was that

1014
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:05,720
Speaker 1: the one where they have the strength to schedule advantage?

1015
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1016
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 5: So the eleven team strength to schedule more difficult than

1017
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 5: Seattle's were eight and three in the game.

1018
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 2: Got it?

1019
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: Got it?

1020
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 2: Okay?

1021
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll give you one more. I talked about the

1022
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:20,279
Speaker 5: one and nine stat earlier. To me, this is the

1023
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 5: on field stat I thought was interesting. And there's a

1024
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 5: bunch of data out there on what Mike McDonald's defense,

1025
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 5: even with his last year in the Ravens, have done

1026
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:30,279
Speaker 5: against these young quarterbacks.

1027
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 4: But even if you look last.

1028
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 5: Two seasons with the Seahawks, he's faced ten qbs under

1029
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 5: the age of twenty five. What does that tell you

1030
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 5: that's inexperienced. That's showing you maybe a defense pre snap

1031
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 5: that changes post snap. Well, in those games, the inexperienced

1032
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 5: quarterback is one to nine straight up, twelve interceptions and

1033
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:52,920
Speaker 5: thirty sacks, and those quarterbacks have lost eight straight games.

1034
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:56,479
Speaker 5: So understanding that there is a two week period here

1035
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 5: for Drake May to study what Seattle does but I

1036
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 5: think on the other s, maybe more important, it's what

1037
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 5: Seattle's defense is going to prepare to do against Drake May.

1038
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:07,239
Speaker 4: So that's that a little alarming to me. From a

1039
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:08,720
Speaker 4: New England standpoint, these.

1040
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:14,239
Speaker 1: Are great on field trends, not steeped in history that

1041
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 1: I think we can activate against. But give us the

1042
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:18,439
Speaker 1: other side.

1043
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 5: I mean, from New England's standpoint, I feel like the

1044
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 5: thing that would give you just some sort of just

1045
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 5: some sort of pause would be the fact that this

1046
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:33,719
Speaker 5: game is a and it's tough because you look at

1047
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:35,920
Speaker 5: the odds, right New England entered the season at eighty

1048
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,839
Speaker 5: to one, Seattle entered the season at sixty to one.

1049
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:42,440
Speaker 5: But to me, those aren't indicative of what those teams

1050
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:46,120
Speaker 5: are currently bringing to the table right now, so I

1051
00:50:46,160 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 5: think those can kind of be tossed out the window

1052
00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:51,839
Speaker 5: a little bit. But in this scenario, Drake May, as

1053
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 5: an underdog, hasn't played bad. And the thing that really

1054
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 5: gets me is in the games that he's played as

1055
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 5: a dog, New England's averaging twenty six points per game.

1056
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 5: That to me is a large, large number in games

1057
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 5: that New England shouldn't be winning, and this season they're

1058
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:09,400
Speaker 5: four and two straight up and against the spread in

1059
00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:14,920
Speaker 5: those games. So basically being able to plan and scheme,

1060
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 5: especially now you're getting an extra week to do that

1061
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 5: when mostly they're doing it week to week in that basis,

1062
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 5: So to me, that's the interesting one, which is you're

1063
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 5: not supposed to win this game, you've got extra time

1064
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:29,319
Speaker 5: to prepare for it, and you know you're getting over

1065
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 5: let's say two hooks here, three and four. So to me,

1066
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 5: that that's one that's interesting from New England standpoint.

1067
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 3: And also again you don't have to dive into the games.

1068
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 3: One of those games, they were a three and a

1069
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 3: half or four point dog going to Baltimore. Lamar got

1070
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 3: banged up, knocked out of that game, and at a

1071
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 3: game in which the Ravens were dominating, Drake may once

1072
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:55,720
Speaker 3: again give them props. He scored eighteen in the second

1073
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:57,200
Speaker 3: half of that game and stole that game.

1074
00:51:57,239 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 2: They won twenty eight to twenty four.

1075
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 3: So that's just like the stats they do, he does

1076
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:03,799
Speaker 3: seem to show up, but it's also like you do

1077
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:05,399
Speaker 3: you dive a little bit into him.

1078
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:09,399
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, Evan, we know where

1079
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 1: we've talked signed that and I have talking about sort

1080
00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 1: of our bets so far. Do you have any bets

1081
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,480
Speaker 1: that you've made? You always have like interesting bets that

1082
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 1: are a little bit off the beaten path. What bets

1083
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 1: have you made on the Super Bowl so far?

1084
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:22,800
Speaker 4: Sure?

1085
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 2: So.

1086
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:25,839
Speaker 5: My first bet I made which turns out to get

1087
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:27,880
Speaker 5: some great CLV and you love to see that. I

1088
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:30,240
Speaker 5: took Drake May over twenty nine and a half rushing yards.

1089
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 5: It is now at like thirty eight and a half

1090
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 5: I see in the market somewhere, So that bet long gone.

1091
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:38,319
Speaker 5: I'll give you a few more that actually might be

1092
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:42,440
Speaker 5: actionable at the moment. I took Stefan Diggs under eighteen

1093
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:45,440
Speaker 5: and a half longest reception. Believe that's only down to

1094
00:52:45,520 --> 00:52:47,359
Speaker 5: seventeen and a half on the market. He has been

1095
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 5: a short yardage king for New England, and I see

1096
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,920
Speaker 5: that not changing in this game. They're going to go

1097
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 5: along to Booty, They're going to try long to Kyle Williams,

1098
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 5: like there's going to be other options down the field.

1099
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 5: He's going to be the yardage reception guy. So I

1100
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 5: felt like eighteen and a half was a little long.

1101
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:06,680
Speaker 5: And here's the anti one that I went with. So

1102
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:10,400
Speaker 5: the Patriots have historically this year been very good first half.

1103
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:11,320
Speaker 2: I believe.

1104
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:12,879
Speaker 5: Let's see if I'm looking at this right now, last

1105
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:16,280
Speaker 5: twenty one starts Drake may is eighteen one and two

1106
00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 5: on the first half money line and fifteen zero and

1107
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:21,000
Speaker 5: two first half money line in last seventeen, They've been

1108
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 5: really good to start games. I'm gonna flip it. I

1109
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:27,520
Speaker 5: think that changes. I'll take Seattle first half and full game.

1110
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 5: You're getting like plus one thirty plus one forty range

1111
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:32,799
Speaker 5: depending on the book which is a lot different than

1112
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 5: at minus two thirty on the money line, and you're

1113
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:36,800
Speaker 5: basically just asking them to start fast.

1114
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:40,719
Speaker 3: Evan and that huge booker, you wouldn't happen to have

1115
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:43,080
Speaker 3: anything on the first quarter stats. I gave him one

1116
00:53:43,120 --> 00:53:45,440
Speaker 3: of my favorite bets, first quarter under seven and a half.

1117
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 5: Oh well, I actually look fantastic. I took under nine

1118
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:51,799
Speaker 5: and a half. I'm asking you to shop out there.

1119
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:53,840
Speaker 5: I took first quarter under nine and a half. So

1120
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:56,919
Speaker 5: I'm completely on the same page with you. I don't

1121
00:53:56,960 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 5: have anything in front of me right now. I actually

1122
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 5: have to look into it, but I belie you first

1123
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 5: quarter unders in the Super Bowl are something like fifty

1124
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:06,600
Speaker 5: eight to sixty percent when you look over the last

1125
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:07,799
Speaker 5: decade or two, so.

1126
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 4: Completely on the same page.

1127
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:12,040
Speaker 5: And I like getting over those key numbers even in

1128
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 5: eight depending on what happens in the game.

1129
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 1: Dude, it was so great to have Evan on the

1130
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:21,839
Speaker 1: show today. Simon, you can say, yes.

1131
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 2: The best.

1132
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:29,319
Speaker 3: I always think you're about the going another little silhouette.

1133
00:54:29,960 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 4: He was pausing.

1134
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 1: It was all right, it's the best, Evan. Thanks for

1135
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,640
Speaker 1: coming on. Everyone. Go check out Action super Bowl sixty primer.

1136
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 1: It's great and it's by our friend Evan Abrams. This

1137
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 1: has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.

1138
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:48,439
Speaker 1: We will be back next week for more super Bowl talk.

1139
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:50,720
Speaker 1: We got another special guest. We're gonna talk about props.

1140
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 1: We're gonna We're gonna talk about it all because there's

1141
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:56,759
Speaker 1: so much to unpack. Watch or listen on YouTube at

1142
00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 1: Sharper Square like this video, Subscribe to the channel, download

1143
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:02,800
Speaker 1: us on Spotify Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe.

1144
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:05,320
Speaker 1: We was five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is

1145
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:07,440
Speaker 1: a gift. Until next time, Love you.

1146
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:11,759
Speaker 3: We're going to pay tribute to what this day represents

1147
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:14,000
Speaker 3: and unannounced American.

1148
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 2: Holiday for there's no other time all year long where

1149
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 2: so many of us gathered together around one event. Some

1150
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:22,880
Speaker 2: of you will watch from hospitals and nursing homes, and

1151
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:26,600
Speaker 2: others will celebrate neighborhood parties and family get togethers

1152
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:29,359
Speaker 5: Each of us, millions of us, fitting together in this

1153
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 5: uniquely American mosaic