WEBVTT - The Strong Dollar, Apple, And Oil (Podcast) 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.560 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:23.160 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Vince Signarella he's coming back, 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:26.880 Global macro strategist for Bloomberg News. Literally the king of 0:00:27.040 --> 0:00:33.360 work from home. Vince. He's still bullish here. Yeah, I'm 0:00:33.400 --> 0:00:35.720 actually listening, you know, listen that when I see two 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.680 year years about one year yels back to me and 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:41.479 and the rest of the curve something similar. That's the 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:44.960 fixed income market pushing back against these multiple aggressive FED 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:48.040 rate heights. I understand the argument, and the argument is 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:50.599 we go from eight percent to six percent, but how 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.240 do we get from six percent to two percent in 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:56.280 in a in a short time? My argument against that 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:58.200 is number one, why does it have to be a 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:00.320 short time and why does it have to be two percent? 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:03.080 The two percent level was something green Span just pulled 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:04.840 out of the air. If we get to three or 0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:07.360 three and a half percent, that's where they said, guesses 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:11.480 the neutral rate is so there's no reason that's not 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:13.800 a good place to be. And if I think zero 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:17.479 percent is a good level of inflation, that's just highway robbery. Dude. 0:01:17.480 --> 0:01:19.959 I don't like it. You know, it's not a good thing, 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:23.080 you know. So I do good grocery shopping usually, and 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:25.200 my wife went last week and it came back with 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:28.920 the sheer look of Carol and everything. I've been in 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:30.960 there in a while, and you know, looking at the 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:34.560 prices of a lot of things that doubled essentially. Yeah, yeah, 0:01:34.560 --> 0:01:37.240 I'd like them to get inflation down as quickly as possible. 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:41.360 But I guess you're what you're saying is, um, if 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:43.920 they try and do that, they're going to cause so 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:47.440 much pain that what there will be a backlash and 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.840 riots in the streets, bricks through windows, and they'll have 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:53.920 to turn around and and cut Yeah. Well, I mean 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:56.360 think about it. You know, they're they're making statements, all 0:01:56.400 --> 0:01:59.240 of them basically saying we don't care. We're gonna put 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:01.080 rates up and we're going to keep them there higher 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:03.760 for longer, and we don't care how that affects economy. Well, 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:07.919 if you're in the one pent uh income level, believe 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:10.000 for you, but for the rest of the breast of 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:12.600 the world, that's gonna be very difficult times. If if 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:14.919 the economy rolls over and goes into a recession, you're 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:16.760 going to have people losing their jobs at the same 0:02:16.760 --> 0:02:19.640 time where prices are elevated. I'm not suggesting we're gonna 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:22.480 have statifylation type of scenario for a very long time, 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:25.280 But how do they keep pushing aways higher? If we 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:28.600 have negative growth and we've had two quarters of negative 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:30.239 growth so far, we don't know what the third quarter 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:31.840 is going to bring yet. They don't know what the 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:33.720 third and fourth quarter is going to bring yet. So 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:35.760 if we even have a slight positive growth in the 0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:38.120 third quarter and then negative growth again in the fourth quarter, 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:40.680 what are they trying to accomplish. They're trying to beat 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:45.320 They're beating back on price increases that, let me use 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:48.679 the word transitory. These energy increases are not going to 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:52.639 be here to stay. I had a similar conversation last 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:56.440 week with Larry Summers, and he was saying, you know, 0:02:56.960 --> 0:03:01.040 we're going to keep at these unemploy event levels seeing 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:04.560 inflation until we're at five five and a half percent 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:07.200 of unemployment basically saying that he's he thinks that to 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:10.320 our nehru is um, and getting there is going to 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:14.040 be extremely painful. Uh. For for the U S economy, 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:18.120 for US workers nonetheless, UM, it's tough to be short 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.600 to be long these markets as they continue to fall, right, 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:23.560 I mean, yes, we've turned around a little bit today, 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:25.720 but we're at thirty nine on the S and P 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:28.680 five hundred. Um. Where do you see it going in 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:32.200 the short to medium term? Uh? Well, I got a 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:35.040 dinner bet with a trader over by the end of 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:38.280 the year, so hopefully that's where it will be. Um. 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:41.000 I don't mind buying dinner. I like them. UM. But 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:43.200 I think for the markets in general, I think we 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:46.520 see it harder because I'm just not convinced. And that's 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:49.720 under consensus. By the way, that's consensus. We were checking 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:53.680 yesterday's I think forty three seventy five right now. Yeah, 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:56.120 so against the consensus, So I guess not this time. 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:59.160 It just doesn't look good right now, especially after the 0:03:59.200 --> 0:04:02.640 last few weeks. Drops out of the last seven sessions 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:05.640 were down six of those. Uh. And a lot of 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:07.880 times you'll get some turnarounds during the day, but we 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:10.280 end up in the red by the time the closing 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:13.280 bell rings. Yeah. I mean, look, I can tell you, 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:15.760 in all my years of trading, I never made money 0:04:15.920 --> 0:04:18.000 on a real money on a trade. If I bought 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:19.800 and it went up the same day. I was always 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:22.560 layering into trades and it was always moving against me 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:24.360 because I always thought it's better to be first than 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:27.120 last um And I think that's going to be a 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:29.360 similar situation to this. I think once we get through 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:32.039 September and we get into October and we see inflation 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:34.520 numbers rolling over. We saw the I S M services 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:38.320 prices paid dropping yet again this week. We at cp 0:04:38.400 --> 0:04:40.320 I next week. That's going to be a really interesting 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:43.040 number ahead of the ahead of the FED meeting, And 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:45.880 I think just going forward, we're going to see inflation 0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:48.000 beginning to moderate, and that's going to give the Fed 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:51.080 an opportunity to pause, and you know, if they don't, 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:53.359 it's going to be what Larry Summer said, They're going 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:55.200 to drive us into a recession and it's going to 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:57.640 be very painful for everyone. And then I'd like to 0:04:57.680 --> 0:04:59.520 see them stay there at high rates, Like what's going 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:01.160 to be there argument to say we need to keep 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:03.640 rates at three to four percent with negative growth in 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:06.480 the US of company makes absolutely no sense. Vince, do 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:08.520 you think we're going to get a rate hike in September? 0:05:08.600 --> 0:05:11.680 Then kind of the wait and see. I e. It 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:14.680 takes a while for rate hikes to really impact econmy 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:16.560 and I think that's really what they should be doing. 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:21.440 And they're going against They're going against seven or five points, right, 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:23.400 I mean they're doing seven. Yeah, I think I think 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:26.480 they're gonna go seventy five basis points. Um. Powell was 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.080 very very hawkous the last time around. I don't think 0:05:29.560 --> 0:05:32.200 I don't think he wants to sacrifice credibility by by 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:36.599 suggesting in any conversations coming up. I think he speaks tomorrow. Um, 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:39.039 that's seventy five is not in the cards. I think 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:41.240 that's a given. If they go less than seventy five, 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:44.040 the market's going to rally lot crazy. But I think 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:46.880 you're just a pencil wins. Seventy five it's there. The 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:49.680 question is what comes in October and November. And I'm 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:52.760 going to stay on the argument that they do nothing 0:05:52.839 --> 0:05:55.720 after September because I think that the data just will 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.839 not support Yeah. And the Journal already had a story 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:00.520 this morning that they're gonna go set me five and 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:03.080 you know the journals where they leaked to that's right. Well, 0:06:03.120 --> 0:06:05.159 you know I'm gonna push back on that one because 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:08.520 I worked at the journal the columns before coming to Bloomberg, 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:12.000 and the hit and miss ratio for those guys who 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:16.640 covered the FED was bel So we're getting leaked, all right, Vince, 0:06:16.680 --> 0:06:20.760 good stuff as always from the home office. Vince Signarella, 0:06:20.760 --> 0:06:27.000 Global macro strategists for Bloomberg News, former currency strategy It's 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:28.680 just not happening. Someday we're gonna get him in here, 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:31.760 I don't think so. He looks perfectly comfortable, comfortable at 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:34.679 his work from home office. He has completely made the 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:41.440 evolution to work from home. Let's bring on our next guest, 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:45.719 Mark Smith, Senior VP for Investments at Wells Fargo Advisors. Mark, 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.279 thanks so much for joining us here. I'm sure your 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:51.479 phone's ringing off the hook in this year two saying 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:55.400 my stocks they're not working, my bonds they're not working. 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:58.040 You know, maybe I on the dollar, I'm I'm feeling okay, 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:00.800 But what do you have? What what what the conversations like 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:03.680 with your clients these days? Well, thanks for having me 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:06.080 on it's always pleasure to be on Bloomberg. Uh, yeah, 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:10.160 you're absolutely right. Clients are calling, um, but they are 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:12.640 prepared for this. I mean that the FED has spoken 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:16.160 pretty clearly about what they're intending to do, and uh, 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.920 they carry a pretty large mic. Everyone's listening. They've heard 0:07:18.920 --> 0:07:21.240 that the rates are going up. And so folks are 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:25.720 my clients specifically, are expecting volatility because when you're having 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:29.640 a FED that's tightening, quantitative easing is not gonna be 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:32.800 there anymore. Everyone's expecting for there to be a little 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:35.400 bit of pain while this happens. And so the long 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:37.480 term investor is the one that's still in this. And 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:39.680 I gotta tell you there's a lot of folks out 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:41.200 there there in this for the long term. They've been 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:44.200 trained I think for the since two thousand and eight, 0:07:44.200 --> 0:07:46.960 two thousand nine, UM, going into the pandemic that if 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:49.800 you kind of you know, buy and hold, good things happen. 0:07:49.840 --> 0:07:51.680 And so, um, that's what I'm hearing. A lot of 0:07:51.680 --> 0:07:54.440 folks looking for opportunities in this environment. You look at 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:57.040 the tech sector, there are a ton of them. Um. 0:07:57.160 --> 0:07:59.720 There are companies that we all know and love that 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:03.560 are down. Um, So folks are nibbling. All right, there's 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:06.440 dollar cost averaging. I think what's one term that investors 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:09.400 need to write down put on their fridge dollar cost averages. 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:11.520 If you see a bad day in the market by 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:13.560 a little bit of some of those names that you've 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:15.840 been hoping and praying that we would go down this much. 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:19.600 Don't get nervous when fearful. When people are fearful, be greedy. 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:24.120 I hear you, Um, you know that's uh solid investment 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:26.800 theory and put to practice. I mean, if you step 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:28.680 back and look at the charts over a longer term, 0:08:28.720 --> 0:08:31.600 you have to admit that it always proves correct. What 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:34.440 do you like right now? Mark? Where where are you 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:39.040 seeing the best opportunities in this environment? I think the 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:42.280 best opportunity is in the financials. And here's why since 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:44.280 oh eight oh nine, they're really one of the sectors 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:47.000 that haven't rebounded as much as everyone else. Number two. 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:51.880 In a rising rate environment, historically financials outperform. You look 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:54.920 at the data. The financial sector is poised because of 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:58.360 um that interest margin and because of dot frank what 0:08:58.360 --> 0:08:59.920 what the bank are forced to do into O A 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:01.720 go nine to shore up their balance sheet to make 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:04.960 sure we never see another great recession again and having 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:08.480 a bank run. These banks, I think are primed for 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:11.800 this environment. They are lean and mean, they've been doing 0:09:11.840 --> 0:09:13.320 the right things because the FED made them do the 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:16.520 right things in O nine And they're already undervalued as 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:18.160 a sector compared to every other sector in this and 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:19.920 five harnts you're coming out of eight O nine if 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:22.440 you look at the charts. So I like the financials, 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:25.480 the regionals specifically. I think they're gonna do really well 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:28.080 in this environment. Um, But um, any of the large 0:09:28.080 --> 0:09:30.360 banks as well. I mean, you're going in there, who's 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:32.440 keeping their money in bitcoin? Right now? That that that 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:35.559 story is over, people are keeping keeping their money in banks. Um, 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.040 it's the safest place to be. And um, I think 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:39.640 you're gonna see them do well over the next couple 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:42.640 of years. Mark Energies, you know had you know, it's 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:44.840 it's day in the sun, a rare day in the sun. 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:47.920 Over the last couple of years, I'm starting to see 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:50.080 a little bit of a pullback in in oil. Here. 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:52.520 Do you guys have an energy call there? Should I 0:09:52.559 --> 0:09:54.560 take my money and say all right, I've done okay? 0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:58.679 Where do I stick around? Look? Listen, I think if 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:00.679 you look at where we are, because when you think 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:03.000 about energy, you guys think about it globally, right, you 0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:04.520 can't just think about it here in the US. So 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:06.240 if you look at what's going on, we still got 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:08.560 lockdowns and the one of the largest economies in the 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:11.680 world in China. Once they fully get back on, I 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:13.760 think energy is gonna take off. You've got a huge 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:17.560 issue with Putin and Europe UM and going into the winter. 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:20.160 These are all I think you a little brisks that 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:22.439 are out there that I will could and could make 0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:26.120 energy go up. And I think until all this is realized, 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.400 I think you've got to have a position and energy. Um, 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:32.040 given what you're seeing globally going on from Europe and 0:10:32.080 --> 0:10:35.240 Putin to UM to China and having them still being 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:37.880 locked down when all these things kind of swash out, 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:40.240 I think you can still see some upside there all right, 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:45.079 Supreme Fish Delight. Where was that restaurant that was in Harlem? 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:47.080 And thanks for bringing that up, although I like closed 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:49.520 it down a few years ago. Um, that was the 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:52.000 restaurant that I ran in Harlem for a couple of years. 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:54.680 I was a restaurant our owner operator and it was 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:57.280 one of the hardest things I've ever done in my life. 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:59.280 I give my I sit my hat to all the 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:02.440 restaurant owner is around the country for the work they've 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:04.120 done over the last couple of years, because it has 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:06.920 not been easy. It's hard to find good workers. Um. 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:08.640 I don't know what these folks are doing nowadays, but 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:11.560 they're not coming back to restaurants. Yeah, interesting stuff, you know. 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:13.720 It's just you know that you think about the restaurant business, 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:17.760 You've got inflation on your cost. Yes, obviously the restaurant 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:21.520 very difficult. But you know what, I imagine being senior 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:24.560 VP for Investments at Wells Fargo Fargo Advisors in this 0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:27.079 climate is also fairly tough because Mark, you've got to 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:29.280 be fielding a ton of calls from people who are 0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:32.640 freaking out, especially you know, investors who are close to retirement. 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:37.280 Right here, Um, we have seen in the last nine days, 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:42.200 we've seen uh nine consecutive drops in global stocks and 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:45.079 that's the worst run we've seen in eleven years. Stuff 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:46.520 all right, Mark, thanks so much for joining us here. 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:50.280 Mark Smith's senior VP Investments for Wells Fargo Advisor's former 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:54.680 restaurant owner Supreme Fish Delight in Harlem, formerly up there, 0:11:54.760 --> 0:12:02.400 so very interesting background. I'm looking at my phone, I 0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:07.280 phone model iPhone eleven. Dude, you really need an upgrade, 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:10.480 do I? What do you got? I have the thirteen. Yeah, 0:12:10.520 --> 0:12:12.320 it doesn't look any different, a better, it's no, but 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:14.320 it's not the way it looks. I think, um, five 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:17.040 G started with the twelve. There's a couple of things. 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:18.920 Five G started with the twelve. The other thing is 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:20.800 the mag safe thing started with the twelve. So I 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:22.440 can just like my charge at home. I just stick 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:24.360 my phone to it. I don't plug it in, I 0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:28.280 just slap it on there. And uh yeah, alright, this 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:30.520 year's a good year. All right, we'll see what we'll see. 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:32.720 I don't need an upgrade, it's probably the thing, but 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:34.760 I do think you tell me a right Ed loud 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:37.600 Low West Coast, corresponding from Bloomberg News. He's all over 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:40.800 this Apple event today taking place in Cupertino, where they're 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:43.640 going to launch some of their new products, including the 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:49.040 iPhone fourteen. Ed, what's the buzz in the valley about 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:52.400 our friends and Cuppertino. There's this fantastic meme that someone 0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:55.800 tweeted this morning of Christmas Day, and this man wearing 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:59.280 a red plaid shut opening a box and pulling out 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.640 the exact saying red plaid shirt that he's wearing. And 0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:04.280 I think that that's what you guys are kind of 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:07.680 getting at, right, that these are incremental updates. But you 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:10.240 know that that we get a new iPhone every year 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:13.560 almost right, and between iPhone twelve to iPhone thirteen, which 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:17.559 I also have, you know, the distinction in this day 0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:19.240 and age has been whether you get the sort of 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:22.000 bog standard consumer model or the Pro model, which has 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:26.280 higher spec camera and processing capabilities and is kind of 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:29.439 aimed at creative professionals. And it's much the same with 0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:31.719 the iPhone four team. We expect same as people who 0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:34.840 like to think of themselves as creative well yes, yes 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:38.120 quite or who I guess work in the creative industries. 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:41.720 But you know, that's what we expect this time. Four 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:45.160 versions of the iPhone fourteen two Pro two Standard, no 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:49.440 mini version. You remember. I know for some people that 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:51.440 is a bummer, but Apple is kind of going in 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:54.240 the direction the rest of the smartphone industry, including Samsung 0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:57.720 is which is bigger, screens are better. Um. The key 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:00.400 is in the hint of the poster for the event, 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:02.080 which is called far Out. Have you guys seen it? 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:06.839 So it is the Apple logo illuminated in the night 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:11.520 sky as a star constellation. And Mark German, our Apple reporter, 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:15.160 has this brilliant column and his newsletter talking about kind 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:17.040 of what that could mean. It could be as simple 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.240 as a wallpaper, right, and I know that sounds dumb. 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:23.920 Or it could mean a tease to satellite capabilities. And 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:27.160 I think that's the next technology area that the analysts 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:30.480 are looking to. I dig that just googled. I just 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:33.040 googled the far out Apple and then you can see 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:37.080 the um the sort of universe picture that Ed is 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:39.960 talking about, very very cool um. And now I'm even 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.760 more excited than I was before. What time five o'clock? Right? 0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:46.480 Is it five o'clock Eastern time? So two o'clock your time? Ed? 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:48.480 What time do we start to hear these details? Isn't 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:50.640 it one o'clock eastern time? Hold on, let me look 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:52.760 it up. Give me a second. You guys talk amongst okay, 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:54.680 So I'll tell you while you look this up, I'll 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:56.520 tell you. Do I get subsidized again? If I got 0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:58.080 buy a phone and my shell now a thousand dollars 0:14:58.080 --> 0:14:59.880 I think now on, you're just from now on your 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.080 shelling out of that. Let's maybe you switch over from 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:05.720 contract to contract everything about that. But what I'm most 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:09.000 excited about myself is a new Apple watch because as 0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:13.160 I get more um interested in the data. Are you 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:15.520 talking to your watch? No? I don't talk to it, 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:18.760 but it measures my heart rate and heart rate variability, 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:21.320 and it tells me how well I sleep, or at 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.240 least it tries to do that. It's not working quite 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:27.600 as well, I think as some of its competitors, um 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:31.080 Polar has a much better heart rate monitor whoop maybe 0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:33.080 is better at telling me how I sleep and my 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:36.160 recovery time. And I think Apple could really up its 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.840 game um in terms of the health functions on the watch. 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:41.880 ED what are you hearing about that? Well, good news. 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:44.800 I mean we're expecting a new generation of Apple watches 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:47.240 as well. It's interesting. I don't want to go in 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:48.640 too much of a tangent, but there's been a lot 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:52.680 of debate about whether Apple needs to buy Peloton. For example. 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:54.680 You know, it's reports out there that Peloton is kind 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:58.480 of shopping itself amongst its current difficulties, and a lot 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:01.360 of the response from the Street. It doesn't need to. 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:03.560 You know, it has hardware in the watch, it has 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:06.480 the content already, why would it buy Peloton? So we 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:09.280 do expect a new generation of Apple Watch, and you know, 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:12.120 much with the phone, the question is whether you go 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:14.760 for the higher spec version of it with the larger screen, 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:16.920 or you go for the cheaper model. I think that 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:20.480 the other big theme conscious of time is that you know, 0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:23.760 from an analyst and investor's perspective, you want to see 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:27.840 how Apple prices all this stuff, right, because sales volumes 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:30.160 could drop going into the end of this year the 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:33.080 economy such as it is globally, so higher prices can 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:36.680 maintain the bottom line. How about for some emerging markets 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:40.280 where a lower price phone would do better? And I 0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:43.480 know they had a model a couple of cycles ago 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:45.760 that we're kind of targeting that, you know, whether it's 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:48.320 India other merger markets. Where are we with it? Yeah? 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:50.240 I think, well, I go back to the mini, right 0:16:50.400 --> 0:16:53.680 that that the mini and the non pro versions of 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:55.640 the phone are aimed at. That that you look at 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:57.960 a chart of ASPS average selling prices and they've gone 0:16:57.960 --> 0:17:01.400 through the roof towards dollars of these handsets, right, I 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:03.480 remember why. I don't remember. I'm not that old, but 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:05.399 you know, when I was a kid, you could just 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:08.399 about afford the basic iPhone. It was much smaller, lower 0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:11.520 spec It's the size and the capabilities that driven the 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:14.840 prices higher in markets like India, fascinating market. You know 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:16.920 Samsung does well, but you have to remember there's many 0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:20.119 other players in that market. Local players are the Asian 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.720 players who are much more focused at the lower end. Yeah, 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:25.959 it'll be interesting to see what kind of a ray 0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:30.120 because at some points, at certain generations they do come 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:32.399 out with like an R model or something which is 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:35.240 I guess just as fast but doesn't have all the 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.960 bells and we see, yeah, exactly. So hey, and where's 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:42.200 Apple in terms of the whole supply chain discussion? Ease 0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:43.959 kind of the poster child. What do they say these things? 0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:46.720 You know, Apple is the great bluffer, right, that's probably 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:50.640 being a bit too stronger unkind, but often guides conservatively. 0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:53.640 I think back to fiscal second unders and over deliver. Yeah, 0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:56.400 they have said for a decade they said that supply 0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:58.480 chain issues. At that time, we were kind of in 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:02.040 the depths of the Ukraine crisis, China zero COVID policy 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:04.880 would cost them, or they'd leave between four and eight 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:08.240 billion dollars of sales on the table. What materialized in 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:10.840 the fiscal third quarter was a number significantly less than 0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:13.560 four billion dollars, and they guided to the fiscal fourth 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:16.040 courter the period where in now that it would continue 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:18.320 to be less than four billion dollars with an improving 0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:21.639 supply chain, even with a worsening global economy. So I 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:23.639 think that that's well known. I mean, you guys know 0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:25.720 much better than I. They've done it a long time, 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:30.080 guided conservatively, and you know, I'll leave the person un 0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:33.199 named but telling us that we're so old. Yes, no, no, 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:36.719 I'm just saying Apple Apple, As someone who I respect 0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:38.680 and newsroom said, you know, Apple may go as far 0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:41.800 as to be sandbagging the cell siders, which I think 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:45.720 is an interesting idea. And you're flying out here, yes 0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:48.399 you are you a United? Are you flying with United? 0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:49.960 Because then it's kind of iffy if you're flying in 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:53.200 a GfK with United area. Well, other airlines are available, 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:56.399 but as people know, SFO as a United hub, and 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:58.400 I have been known to fly United. So what are 0:18:58.400 --> 0:19:01.080 you coming here? Are you testing out some brand new 0:19:01.119 --> 0:19:03.800 ev Well, are you looking at a new rocket, I 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.200 mean New York City? What do you do here? Well? 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:09.359 Do you guys remember a company called Nikola that has 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:14.440 Yes Trevor on trial in the Southern District of New 0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:17.879 York three counts of securities fraud, one count of wire fraud. 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:21.840 And I'd like to come to town to cover the trial. Wow. Well, 0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:23.440 I hope we can test drive some cars together. You 0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:25.639