WEBVTT - Caution for Logistics Sector as Yellow Shuts Down

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the truck in from Yellow Corp. Told workers that

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<v Speaker 2>are shutting down. That's according to its union, jeopardizing thirty

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<v Speaker 2>thousand jobs as the historic freight brand faces heavy debt,

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<v Speaker 2>loads and operational woes. This company is the third largest

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<v Speaker 2>less than truckload carrier in the US, so that means

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<v Speaker 2>that it uses a warehouse network to combine several smaller

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<v Speaker 2>shipments on one truck for short haul deliveries. It's different

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<v Speaker 2>from long haul trucking in the parcel industry, those UPS's

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<v Speaker 2>of the world, which carries individual, usually smaller packages. Very

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<v Speaker 2>pleased this afternoon to be joined by Thomas Black, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Industrial Logistics and Aerospace reporter. He's been all over this story.

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<v Speaker 2>We're also joined by Bloomberg anchor and markets correspondent Crety Kupta,

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<v Speaker 2>who's also been all over this It's good to have

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<v Speaker 2>you both with us. Thomas, I wanted to start with

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<v Speaker 2>you and just give us kind of the latest, because

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<v Speaker 2>we're still reading that. It's the union that's communicating this,

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<v Speaker 2>not Yellow.

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<v Speaker 3>That's right.

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<v Speaker 4>Yellow hasn't made it official yet, but all the expectations

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<v Speaker 4>are they will to clear for bankruptcy. There may be

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<v Speaker 4>some legal issues. They are still shopping around. Their threepl business,

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<v Speaker 4>which is a business that coordinates freight, doesn't have truck

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<v Speaker 4>so I don't know if that's slowing things down. But

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<v Speaker 4>we haven't heard from the company, but the union knows

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<v Speaker 4>this is happening because the company has shut down operations

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<v Speaker 4>and workers are no longer going to work.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, bankruptcy doesn't always mean that a company shuts down operations,

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<v Speaker 2>that a company stops what it's doing. I mean, there

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<v Speaker 2>are plenty of bankrupt companies that continue to have operations.

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<v Speaker 2>What's going on with Yellow?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, in this case, trucking is a little bit different

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<v Speaker 4>because you can't get your products stuck in the system.

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<v Speaker 4>So when the operations are under strus like this, customers

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<v Speaker 4>tend to flee, and at some point they have closed operations,

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<v Speaker 4>they are no longer picking up freight.

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<v Speaker 5>So we do know that, all right, So Chrity, come

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<v Speaker 5>on in here, because I know that you are following

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<v Speaker 5>the labor story for several companies right now, so closely

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<v Speaker 5>talk to me with Yellow specifically about what the back

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<v Speaker 5>and forth looked like between the union and the company

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<v Speaker 5>and what the kind of sticking points were.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, we know that the Team Stars union negotiations have

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<v Speaker 6>really kind of set the tone for labor negotiations across

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<v Speaker 6>the country when it came to what they demanded from UPS,

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<v Speaker 6>the Majorshipper, and this included things like eliminating the two

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<v Speaker 6>tier wage system, giving benefits time off, but of course

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<v Speaker 6>pay was at the core of it, especially because a

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<v Speaker 6>lot of these workers, I mean they're truck drivers, they're

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<v Speaker 6>manual laborers. This is a very intensive industry, and they

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<v Speaker 6>weren't getting paid necessarily by the same rate depending on

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<v Speaker 6>how many hours that they worked. UPS has really ended

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<v Speaker 6>or the Teachers negotiations that really ended that dynamic. But

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<v Speaker 6>Teamsters also represents a lot of workers at say Amazon

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<v Speaker 6>for example, and Yellow among others. And the Yellow story

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<v Speaker 6>is really interesting because they had tried to negotiate an

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<v Speaker 6>agreement with this. By the way, I should say, what

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<v Speaker 6>used to be kind of a name brand logistics company

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<v Speaker 6>and of course has declined since but they ultimately, I

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<v Speaker 6>think what you need to know here is had negotiated

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<v Speaker 6>a fifty million dollar increase of a payment from Yellow

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<v Speaker 6>to their employees, and their Yellow's company finances got so

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<v Speaker 6>bad they weren't even able to make that payment. Ultimately,

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<v Speaker 6>Teamster said, look, we're going to strike, and even that

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<v Speaker 6>didn't pan out simply because there's no money to go around.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, the company also really kind of put the blame

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<v Speaker 5>on the union, saying that the union efforts hurt a

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<v Speaker 5>plan to combine its trucking divisions for Yellow. What is

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<v Speaker 5>Yellow's standing on that and how does that plan into

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<v Speaker 5>the overall picture that we're seeing in the infighting between

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<v Speaker 5>unions and these companies.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, well, I think it's really speaks to kind of

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<v Speaker 6>the pattern that I think Yellow has developed, and I

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<v Speaker 6>mean Thomas can speak I think probably better to this,

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<v Speaker 6>but essentially this idea that a lot of their financial

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<v Speaker 6>troubles have come simply from trying to acquire other pieces

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<v Speaker 6>of the logistics space, and in doing that, that kind

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<v Speaker 6>of consolidation, which again is very normal when you're trying

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<v Speaker 6>to be in market share, has ultimately led to these

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<v Speaker 6>major debt issues. Add On the higher wages of workers

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<v Speaker 6>and specifically what the teamsters are adding for and that

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<v Speaker 6>is an additional cost. So you are seeing this kind

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<v Speaker 6>of double barreled whammy. If I will on on kind

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<v Speaker 6>of how they're able to deal with these, I'll allow that.

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<v Speaker 2>Created I'll allow that. I thought, Thomas, I want to

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<v Speaker 2>bring you back in here and talk a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>about the other companies that might be the beneficiaries of

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<v Speaker 2>Yellow shutting down XPO Logistics. Old dominion, for example, from

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<v Speaker 2>the perspective of customers is that where they fled.

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<v Speaker 4>Now, the LTL market is a little bit more concentrated,

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<v Speaker 4>a lot more concentrated than the truckload market, so they're

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<v Speaker 4>a handful of large players. FedEx, for example, has an

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<v Speaker 4>LTL business. There's another company called SI, and the ones

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<v Speaker 4>that you mentioned, those are really the dominant players in

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<v Speaker 4>this market. There's some smaller ones, but it's concentrated. So

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<v Speaker 4>those companies have had a decline in their volumes just

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<v Speaker 4>coming down from the pandemic highs, so they have excess

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<v Speaker 4>capacity and they are up you know, the freight that

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<v Speaker 4>will come to them. They probably will try to cherry

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<v Speaker 4>pick it a little bit to make sure they get

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<v Speaker 4>the most profitable part of that or the freight that

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<v Speaker 4>matches up with the lanes that they tend to run.

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<v Speaker 4>So we're going to see that being divvied up. I

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<v Speaker 4>would say on the union talks, the company actually came

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<v Speaker 4>to the union to ask them to reopen the negotiation,

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<v Speaker 4>but they their contract had run through into next year,

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<v Speaker 4>but they wanted to do this consolidation of their different

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<v Speaker 4>units to gain some efficiency, so they reopened that contract

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<v Speaker 4>and the negotiations didn't go anywhere, and that that fifty

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<v Speaker 4>million payment was a payment that they owed for the

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<v Speaker 4>penon and when they couldn't make that, that's when the

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<v Speaker 4>team decided to pull the plug on their negotiations. Now,

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<v Speaker 4>whether it's the fall of the Teamsters or not, that's

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<v Speaker 4>I don't want to make that call. Certainly the company

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<v Speaker 4>says that's the case. I would just say that the Teamsters,

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<v Speaker 4>besides the UPS contract, did negotiate contracts with the art

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<v Speaker 4>Best freight unit called ABF Freight, which is also an

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<v Speaker 4>LTL carrier, and they just they're about to ratify an

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<v Speaker 4>agreement with t Force, which is the LTL carrier that

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<v Speaker 4>UPS sold a couple of years ago. So it's it's

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<v Speaker 4>not like the team stars aren't doing agreements. This one

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<v Speaker 4>I think was maybe an outlier.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, that's that's that's good to know. Thomas Credie. I

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<v Speaker 2>want to bring you back in here because you and

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<v Speaker 2>I were chatting about this a little earlier about you

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<v Speaker 2>know what you thought sort of the most interesting element

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<v Speaker 2>of this story is, and it's one that struck me

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<v Speaker 2>as well, it's the fact that pretty much everyone listening,

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<v Speaker 2>if they're a US taxpayer, they're owners of this stock.

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<v Speaker 2>Taxpayers are owned thirty percent.

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<v Speaker 7>Of this they are.

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<v Speaker 6>The irony is that the stock is a penny stock now,

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<v Speaker 6>it doesn't even really hold that much value, So.

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<v Speaker 2>The taxpayer should have shorted it, is what you're saying.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, I do not give investment advice, thank you,

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<v Speaker 6>but yeah, I think that's my favorite fun fact time

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<v Speaker 6>about the whole stories that look, because of these big

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<v Speaker 6>financial troubles that Yellow has gotten into, well, then to

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<v Speaker 6>procuring about a seven hundred million dollar load in twenty

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<v Speaker 6>twenty when a lot of businesses were getting that kind

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<v Speaker 6>of COVID relaef the idea that under the Trump administration,

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<v Speaker 6>he can use these nations security measures to make sure

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<v Speaker 6>that supply chains were working that everything was kind of

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<v Speaker 6>trying to function as best as it could just given

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<v Speaker 6>the dynamic there. Under that Yellow had gotten a seven

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<v Speaker 6>hundred million dollar loan that they still have not paid back,

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<v Speaker 6>So they basically owe the Treasury Department seven hundred million

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<v Speaker 6>dollars and in doing that, by extension, taxpayers own about

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<v Speaker 6>thirty percent of the stock I think. So one of

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<v Speaker 6>my favorite kind of things to put into perspective here

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<v Speaker 6>is simply that when you look at their long term debt,

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<v Speaker 6>that seven hundred million dollar loan represents nearly half of it.

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<v Speaker 6>It's a lot. So again, when I say that they're

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<v Speaker 6>in some serious financial trouble, taxpayers are are paying part

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<v Speaker 6>of it all.

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<v Speaker 5>Right, final thirty seconds here, Thomas is part of the

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<v Speaker 5>takeaway from this story about overall freight demand clients declines

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<v Speaker 5>rather post COVID.

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<v Speaker 7>I would just say Yellow is an outlier.

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<v Speaker 4>They've had financial problems really since the Great Recession back

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<v Speaker 4>in two thousand in eight two nine, so they have

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<v Speaker 4>been battling financial difficulty for a long time. So I

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<v Speaker 4>wouldn't read too much and do their particular problems for

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<v Speaker 4>the freight market is depressed a little bit, but the

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<v Speaker 4>strong carriers are going.

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<v Speaker 2>To be able to power through really good stuff. Guys,

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<v Speaker 2>both of you really appreciate that. That's Kredi Gupta, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>anchor and Market's correspondent, and the voice you just heard

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<v Speaker 2>there Thomas Black, Bloomberg Industrial Logistics and aerospace reporter. Both

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<v Speaker 2>of them have been all over this story, so we

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<v Speaker 2>really appreciate it.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 2>Maddie, I got a true story for you last week.

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<v Speaker 2>I'd hear it last week. I come into work and

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<v Speaker 2>I'm soaking with sweat, and my colleague Alex s Gittelson says, Tim,

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<v Speaker 2>how is your bike ride in this morning? And I

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<v Speaker 2>was like, Alex took the subway in. This is how

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<v Speaker 2>much I sweat when I walk from the subway to

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<v Speaker 2>our office two blocks. And he was like, Oh, I'm sorry,

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<v Speaker 2>you're so sweaty. I thought you rode your bike all

0:10:10.240 --> 0:10:13.600
<v Speaker 2>the way from Brooklyn. No, that's just because this month

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<v Speaker 2>has been really hot. All that to say June was hot.

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<v Speaker 2>In fact, it was the hottest June in recorded history,

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<v Speaker 2>and this month it's the hottest ever July. It's not

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<v Speaker 2>good news, but it's good that we have Eric Rosston

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<v Speaker 2>all over this story. It's a big take from last

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<v Speaker 2>week and overheating planet requires supercharged climate solutions. Eric joins

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<v Speaker 2>us on zoom from our Washington, DC bureau. Eric, good

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<v Speaker 2>to have you with us. First, give us the bad news.

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<v Speaker 2>Just how bad was July?

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<v Speaker 8>July was bad? You have characterized it well, it was

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<v Speaker 8>the hottest month and recorded history. The temperature records go

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<v Speaker 8>back to the middle of the nineteenth century. This year

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<v Speaker 8>is likely to be the hottest year on record. The

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<v Speaker 8>last nine years have been the hottest year on record,

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<v Speaker 8>the hottest twenty two, twenty two of the hottest twenty

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<v Speaker 8>three years have occurred this century, and every decade has

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<v Speaker 8>been hotter than the last since the nineteen sixties.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so not great. How much more of this are

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<v Speaker 5>we going to experience throughout the rest of this year?

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<v Speaker 5>How much more heat can we anticipate? Is this going

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<v Speaker 5>to happen through the end of twenty twenty three?

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<v Speaker 8>Even well, we're helped out in some ways by the

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<v Speaker 8>fact that July is the hottest month, and so as

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<v Speaker 8>we spin around the sun toward fall and winter, temperatures

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<v Speaker 8>will retreat from the peace we've seen. On the other hand,

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<v Speaker 8>we're also entering hurricane and wildfire Season's what's making this

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<v Speaker 8>year unduly punishing is the coincidence of not only climate change,

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<v Speaker 8>which just steps up all the time, but also in

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<v Speaker 8>El Nino, which is this phenomenon of the Pacific Ocean

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<v Speaker 8>sort of coughs up lots of heat every few years,

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<v Speaker 8>and it makes temperatures hotter and throws weather in the

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<v Speaker 8>chaos in different parts of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>It's pretty depressing, I gotta tell you.

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<v Speaker 4>Eric.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, we got a note from my kids nursery

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<v Speaker 2>school that says AQI is over one hundred today, so

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<v Speaker 2>we're not going to let the kids play outside. Meaning

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<v Speaker 2>the air quality index from the wildfires in Canada a

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<v Speaker 2>few weeks ago, a few months ago, and a few

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<v Speaker 2>weeks ago actually happened twice recently prevented the kids from

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<v Speaker 2>being able to play outside. But it's so hot that

0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:49.280
<v Speaker 2>you got to be blasting the air conditioner. Where does

0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:51.880
<v Speaker 2>the electricity come from to blast the air conditioner? Well,

0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.640
<v Speaker 2>because it's not coming from nuclear anymore here in New York.

0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:58.840
<v Speaker 2>It's coming from fossil fuels. It's creating this terrible cycle

0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.079
<v Speaker 2>that we're in right now, which is you know, really

0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:05.000
<v Speaker 2>my question is about solutions, because staying inside in blasting

0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:07.760
<v Speaker 2>the ACA is not a viable solution. That's not going

0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:10.760
<v Speaker 2>to keep sea levels from rising, that's not going to

0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:13.199
<v Speaker 2>keep wildfires from happening, that's not going to keep the

0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:15.040
<v Speaker 2>air clan. What do we do.

0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:19.400
<v Speaker 8>We need to get off fossil fuels, even though it's

0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:23.840
<v Speaker 8>not said that bluntly in American political culture, fossil fuels

0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:28.040
<v Speaker 8>cause called fossil fuel burning causes climate change, and until

0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:31.080
<v Speaker 8>we get that under control, climate change will always be

0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:33.880
<v Speaker 8>in its opening act. This will be a cold summer

0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 8>in twenty or thirty years, and that's ultimately this whole story.

0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:43.440
<v Speaker 8>You know, this is not a complicated topic. We've known

0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:47.440
<v Speaker 8>for many decades that this is occurring. Scientists, you know,

0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:49.680
<v Speaker 8>warned us for decades that you want to get on

0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:53.079
<v Speaker 8>top of this before the symptoms start occurring. The symptoms

0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:58.320
<v Speaker 8>are occurring. Fortunately, and this is the good news. We

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:05.120
<v Speaker 8>have the tools, right We have affordable solar wind and

0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:08.400
<v Speaker 8>battery technology, Solar is cheaper than coal in most of

0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:13.160
<v Speaker 8>the world on a levelized cost basis. We have wild

0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:20.360
<v Speaker 8>investment into things that are not solved technologically. Yet this story,

0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:24.680
<v Speaker 8>the reason this is the greatest story ever is that

0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:28.920
<v Speaker 8>the stakes could not be higher. But you know, we

0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 8>have the fixes and all we need to do is

0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:37.280
<v Speaker 8>the work to implement them. Like that's it. All we

0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 8>have to do is the work.

0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:42.640
<v Speaker 5>Can we reverse some of the damage that's already been done?

0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:44.880
<v Speaker 5>Or when you said this is going to be viewed

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:47.680
<v Speaker 5>as a cool summer in twenty or thirty years, is

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:51.360
<v Speaker 5>that a foregone conclusion or can we fix it still?

0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:55.600
<v Speaker 8>The scientists have said, in a break from previous years,

0:14:56.360 --> 0:15:00.280
<v Speaker 8>they think that as soon as we stop increasing the

0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:04.880
<v Speaker 8>atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, that the warming will will

0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:09.920
<v Speaker 8>stop pretty quickly thereafter. So let's what you know, it's

0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:13.640
<v Speaker 8>what passes for good news in this space. Uh, but

0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:16.680
<v Speaker 8>you know this is this is uh, it's a it's

0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:20.080
<v Speaker 8>a situation, right, This is not it's not great news.

0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:23.200
<v Speaker 8>We've known about it for a long time. We've made

0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:25.840
<v Speaker 8>you know, we put it off for a long time.

0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:30.440
<v Speaker 8>And that's just where we are. I, as someone who

0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:33.720
<v Speaker 8>covers this. You know, we get climate reporters, I think

0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:35.720
<v Speaker 8>get this question a lot, which is how do you

0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:41.120
<v Speaker 8>deal with it? And part of the part of it

0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:46.000
<v Speaker 8>is by being in touch with everything that's going on.

0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:50.440
<v Speaker 8>There's a way that kind of diffuses anxiety, you know,

0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:53.400
<v Speaker 8>like if you can if you can understand something, it

0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.600
<v Speaker 8>makes it less scary. But the other thing is that,

0:15:56.680 --> 0:16:02.920
<v Speaker 8>like again, I cannot over emphasize the excitement around clean

0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.560
<v Speaker 8>energy technologies. The rate of growth, the rate of the

0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:12.720
<v Speaker 8>price declines, it's just phenomenal how quickly we can solve

0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:14.680
<v Speaker 8>the problem if we decide.

0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:17.360
<v Speaker 2>To Nancy Lyons in our DC newsroom, who I believe

0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:19.640
<v Speaker 2>it's probably Eric, just a few steps from you, because

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:21.800
<v Speaker 2>I think you're in the same newsroom today. She just

0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:24.120
<v Speaker 2>sent in our chat a great question and reminded me

0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:27.560
<v Speaker 2>that the problem when it comes to renewables is consistent

0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:30.960
<v Speaker 2>power supply. You know, when there is no wind, when

0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:34.160
<v Speaker 2>there is no sun, when it's nighttime. How do we

0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:38.080
<v Speaker 2>get to a place where we can actually store power

0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:41.120
<v Speaker 2>that's generated in the day to offset fossil fuel use

0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:42.880
<v Speaker 2>at night? Or is the answer just nuclear?

0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:49.640
<v Speaker 8>Both of the answer the price declines in utility scale

0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:55.240
<v Speaker 8>batteries have plummeted like the curve just like somebody looks

0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:57.760
<v Speaker 8>like somebody just like dropped an egg on the chart

0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:01.480
<v Speaker 8>of price declines, right, it's just like very precipitous. So

0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:07.240
<v Speaker 8>increasingly you see utility scale batteries and nuclear is an

0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:11.639
<v Speaker 8>option that has been there the whole time, and it

0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:16.240
<v Speaker 8>is a critical source of baseline electricity.

0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:18.520
<v Speaker 9>It's just there.

0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:21.160
<v Speaker 8>People just seem not to be able to build them.

0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:24.960
<v Speaker 8>They're just they come in billions of dollars over budget

0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:29.520
<v Speaker 8>and many years late. You know, when you look at

0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:33.840
<v Speaker 8>the time crunch, we're in to have global emissions by

0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:38.000
<v Speaker 8>twenty thirty, Like you can't build nuclear in that time,

0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.439
<v Speaker 8>or at least nobody has. So you know, nuclear is

0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:46.199
<v Speaker 8>you know, it's this tragedy of like having a carbon

0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:49.560
<v Speaker 8>free source of power that you know, we've used for

0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:53.080
<v Speaker 8>more than half a century, but nobody will build them.

0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:54.000
<v Speaker 7>Yeah.

0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:57.359
<v Speaker 5>In our final minute with you here, I'm curious about

0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:00.320
<v Speaker 5>legislation around this because you are in DC for us.

0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:05.520
<v Speaker 5>How effective has legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act been

0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:08.360
<v Speaker 5>at sort of solving some of the issues that you're

0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:09.280
<v Speaker 5>talking with us about.

0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:15.919
<v Speaker 8>It's the most phenomenally important climate legislation that any country

0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:21.600
<v Speaker 8>has ever passed. You know, the the International Energy Agency

0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:26.240
<v Speaker 8>says we need to triple renewable deployment by twenty thirty,

0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:29.199
<v Speaker 8>we need to double energy efficiency, and the oil and

0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:32.760
<v Speaker 8>gas sector needs to cut its methane emissions by seventy

0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:36.680
<v Speaker 8>five percent. There are things in the inflation reduction app

0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:42.040
<v Speaker 8>and now in copycat legislation in Europe that will incentivize

0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:46.040
<v Speaker 8>all of those things. So it is it's difficult to

0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:53.520
<v Speaker 8>overstate the importance of how much that that legislation will

0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:57.160
<v Speaker 8>help things along. There's still more that's needed. One interesting

0:18:57.200 --> 0:18:59.720
<v Speaker 8>thing is like we're going to build so much solar

0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:03.240
<v Speaker 8>and wind in the US that like we can't keep

0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:06.000
<v Speaker 8>up with plugging it into the grid fast enough. And

0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:10.000
<v Speaker 8>so it's interesting, like the federal government can you know,

0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:15.360
<v Speaker 8>has U can build pipelines and highways, but they can't

0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:18.520
<v Speaker 8>build transmission right, So that's something Congress has to fix.

0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:20.159
<v Speaker 2>Eric, we got to run, but we love it when

0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:22.120
<v Speaker 2>you join us. Thanks so much for doing this. That's

0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:25.840
<v Speaker 2>Eric Roston, sustainabilitator at sustainability editor at Bloomberg News.

0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:30.000
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:19:30.040 --> 0:19:34.080
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:40.760
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:45.480
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:49.480
<v Speaker 5>We have been talking a lot about investors, and they've

0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:52.639
<v Speaker 5>been very bullish this year on everything from AI to

0:19:52.720 --> 0:19:56.320
<v Speaker 5>big tech chip manufacturing of course, Tim, but you know

0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:58.800
<v Speaker 5>one other thing that they're bullish on, it turns out

0:19:59.040 --> 0:19:59.879
<v Speaker 5>is women's soccer.

0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:00.400
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:03.200
<v Speaker 2>We got a great story featured in BusinessWeek newsletter recently

0:20:03.280 --> 0:20:05.960
<v Speaker 2>the BW Daily newsletter, and with the World Cup going,

0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:09.399
<v Speaker 2>we're gonna get a pulse check on women's soccer, specifically Maddie.

0:20:09.480 --> 0:20:09.680
<v Speaker 10>Yeah.

0:20:09.720 --> 0:20:12.560
<v Speaker 5>We're thrilled to have Bloomberg BusinessWeek editor Joel Weber here

0:20:12.560 --> 0:20:15.040
<v Speaker 5>with us in studio as well as reporter Aira Budua

0:20:15.240 --> 0:20:17.359
<v Speaker 5>to discuss and as always, you can find this story

0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:19.760
<v Speaker 5>on Bloomberg dot com and on the terminal. But Joel,

0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:22.600
<v Speaker 5>talk to us because investors, they're into a lot of

0:20:22.640 --> 0:20:23.440
<v Speaker 5>sports right now.

0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:29.000
<v Speaker 3>They are, Pickaball being one. So the thing with pickaball

0:20:29.119 --> 0:20:32.480
<v Speaker 3>is that it's really loud. It's so loud and it's

0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:38.879
<v Speaker 3>like maybe you've heard it, so've heard it. Yeah, Uh

0:20:39.160 --> 0:20:41.840
<v Speaker 3>I still love it, still love it. But you know,

0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:45.560
<v Speaker 3>look it's it's World Cup season, and uh it is

0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:49.760
<v Speaker 3>a huge reminder of just whenever this comes around every

0:20:49.800 --> 0:20:53.639
<v Speaker 3>four years, Uh, all eyes just go to it. And

0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:57.840
<v Speaker 3>America is obviously really good at the American team is

0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:03.359
<v Speaker 3>really good. So good, right, and kind of a lukewarm

0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:07.720
<v Speaker 3>start here, we'll see what happens. But reminded how much

0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:12.640
<v Speaker 3>people love watching it, right Ira so far, and I'm

0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:17.159
<v Speaker 3>curious what the business really looks like. And it's just

0:21:17.240 --> 0:21:19.399
<v Speaker 3>this reminder of like when this comes around, it's like

0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:23.240
<v Speaker 3>pulls everybody in and it turns out this business just

0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:24.640
<v Speaker 3>gets better and better and better.

0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:25.440
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:28.000
<v Speaker 9>It's interesting because I mean this is the third time

0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 9>that the National Women's Soccer League, is the third time

0:21:30.560 --> 0:21:33.320
<v Speaker 9>that the US has tried a professional women's soccer league,

0:21:33.400 --> 0:21:35.639
<v Speaker 9>and each time it's sort of been tied to the

0:21:35.680 --> 0:21:39.000
<v Speaker 9>buzz and hype of the World Cup. So in you know,

0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:41.160
<v Speaker 9>after the ninety nine Ers, the famous team in nineteen

0:21:41.200 --> 0:21:44.440
<v Speaker 9>ninety nine that won it here on US soil, huge sensation,

0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:47.040
<v Speaker 9>Mia Hamm all of that proved that they could draw

0:21:47.119 --> 0:21:50.600
<v Speaker 9>huge crowds, they launch a league and after three seasons

0:21:50.680 --> 0:21:53.480
<v Speaker 9>one hundred million dollars spent, it collapses. And I think

0:21:53.520 --> 0:21:55.800
<v Speaker 9>some people thought that meant there wasn't a market beyond

0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:58.680
<v Speaker 9>the national team. But if you talk to people in

0:21:59.640 --> 0:22:01.359
<v Speaker 9>this world world now, they say the lesson of that

0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:04.399
<v Speaker 9>was basically that you need more patience and time. If

0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:07.320
<v Speaker 9>you look at any sports league, it takes decades to grow.

0:22:07.440 --> 0:22:09.880
<v Speaker 9>And what you're seeing now in the National Women's Soccer

0:22:09.920 --> 0:22:13.520
<v Speaker 9>League is big money coming in smart investors. You know,

0:22:13.520 --> 0:22:16.000
<v Speaker 9>we look at Sixth Street just paid the private equity

0:22:16.040 --> 0:22:18.560
<v Speaker 9>from just paid fifty three million dollars for the expansion

0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:23.399
<v Speaker 9>franchise in San Francisco BAFC. That shatters the previous you know,

0:22:23.440 --> 0:22:25.720
<v Speaker 9>you used to pay two million for that kind of thing.

0:22:25.800 --> 0:22:28.399
<v Speaker 9>And they see this as a real opportunity. They think

0:22:28.400 --> 0:22:30.199
<v Speaker 9>they're going to reach parody with men's soccer in this

0:22:30.240 --> 0:22:33.520
<v Speaker 9>country within about a decade, and they're investing a one

0:22:33.560 --> 0:22:36.119
<v Speaker 9>hundred and twenty five million as a commitment and that

0:22:36.160 --> 0:22:38.320
<v Speaker 9>those kinds of numbers are what it's going to take,

0:22:38.480 --> 0:22:41.160
<v Speaker 9>and it's going to take time. But now it looks

0:22:41.200 --> 0:22:45.399
<v Speaker 9>like the wherewithal is there finally what's changed. Well, if

0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:48.399
<v Speaker 9>you talk to Alan Waxman at Sixth Street, he says that,

0:22:48.480 --> 0:22:51.960
<v Speaker 9>you know, one big thing that's changed is just the

0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:55.399
<v Speaker 9>there are fewer gatekeepers, so you can get yourself in

0:22:55.400 --> 0:22:58.320
<v Speaker 9>front of fans on streaming networks more easily. Right. So

0:22:58.400 --> 0:23:00.840
<v Speaker 9>they have the enn WUSL as it has a deal

0:23:00.880 --> 0:23:03.360
<v Speaker 9>with CBS that includes every single one of their matches.

0:23:03.440 --> 0:23:06.480
<v Speaker 9>The ones that aren't on CBS broadcast or support or

0:23:06.520 --> 0:23:10.000
<v Speaker 9>cable channel are also on Paramount Plus. So if you're

0:23:10.040 --> 0:23:11.840
<v Speaker 9>a fan, you can see it and then you find

0:23:11.880 --> 0:23:14.959
<v Speaker 9>it right right. Other sports in the past you had

0:23:14.960 --> 0:23:17.520
<v Speaker 9>to take whichever little windows you could get from, you know,

0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:20.280
<v Speaker 9>the gatekeepers. And so that's one and two, he said, I.

0:23:21.960 --> 0:23:24.760
<v Speaker 2>Like with the like on Sundays with the Rabbit Ears

0:23:24.760 --> 0:23:25.720
<v Speaker 2>trying to actually watch.

0:23:25.520 --> 0:23:32.320
<v Speaker 9>A ESPN we're showing pickleball on UH And the other

0:23:32.320 --> 0:23:35.000
<v Speaker 9>thing that's changed in his mind is social media has

0:23:35.040 --> 0:23:38.200
<v Speaker 9>made the players accessible on a day to day basis,

0:23:38.240 --> 0:23:40.320
<v Speaker 9>and they are the best promotion that you have, So

0:23:40.359 --> 0:23:43.399
<v Speaker 9>you not only see them every four years or or

0:23:43.440 --> 0:23:46.600
<v Speaker 9>maybe at the Olympics, you see them day to day

0:23:46.680 --> 0:23:48.639
<v Speaker 9>and that and that's a way to build loyalty and

0:23:48.680 --> 0:23:50.080
<v Speaker 9>build it and build a customer base.

0:23:50.560 --> 0:23:53.160
<v Speaker 2>So in the past, when the past few times when

0:23:53.160 --> 0:23:55.359
<v Speaker 2>this has not worked, when it's failed, it weren't It

0:23:55.400 --> 0:23:57.840
<v Speaker 2>wasn't the social media era, it wasn't the streaming era.

0:23:58.520 --> 0:24:01.080
<v Speaker 2>Is that enough though, to make time of success?

0:24:01.880 --> 0:24:05.200
<v Speaker 9>I think if you add that third element of investor

0:24:05.320 --> 0:24:09.000
<v Speaker 9>patients right right, I think that you have to recognize it.

0:24:09.000 --> 0:24:11.159
<v Speaker 9>I mean, you talk to this economist David Berry out

0:24:11.200 --> 0:24:13.000
<v Speaker 9>in Utah who studied these things, and if you just

0:24:13.040 --> 0:24:15.399
<v Speaker 9>look at like where was the NBA at year twelve?

0:24:15.440 --> 0:24:18.040
<v Speaker 9>That's how old the NWSL is right now, they're in

0:24:18.080 --> 0:24:22.600
<v Speaker 9>their eleventh season. Where was the NFL? Where Major League

0:24:22.600 --> 0:24:25.080
<v Speaker 9>Baseball teams? You know, the National League fourteen out of

0:24:25.080 --> 0:24:28.120
<v Speaker 9>the first sixteen teams failed. You know, the Pittsburgh Steelers

0:24:28.160 --> 0:24:31.680
<v Speaker 9>lost money for decades, Like you really have to in sports.

0:24:31.840 --> 0:24:35.280
<v Speaker 9>It's a long term growth proposition. But once you because

0:24:35.320 --> 0:24:39.639
<v Speaker 9>you're building basically generational emotional attachments, and then once you

0:24:39.720 --> 0:24:42.840
<v Speaker 9>get there, it's almost impossible not to make money because

0:24:42.840 --> 0:24:44.800
<v Speaker 9>people will come and watch whether you're good or bad,

0:24:45.440 --> 0:24:47.080
<v Speaker 9>day in and day out. They will think about you,

0:24:47.320 --> 0:24:51.199
<v Speaker 9>whether you're doing well or not. But that takes twenty

0:24:51.320 --> 0:24:52.800
<v Speaker 9>thirty forty years to create.

0:24:53.760 --> 0:24:57.280
<v Speaker 3>Does Messy help. I'm just thinking, you know, that goal

0:24:57.400 --> 0:25:01.840
<v Speaker 3>was sensational. I watched it like five times, and between

0:25:01.880 --> 0:25:05.240
<v Speaker 3>that and the fact that we've got the World Cup

0:25:05.280 --> 0:25:07.960
<v Speaker 3>happening right now, you just have to kind of think

0:25:07.960 --> 0:25:10.320
<v Speaker 3>that all of this could parlay into a moment.

0:25:10.680 --> 0:25:12.680
<v Speaker 9>Well, I mean, the joke is that soccer has been

0:25:12.680 --> 0:25:14.520
<v Speaker 9>the sport of the future in the US since nineteen

0:25:14.600 --> 0:25:19.960
<v Speaker 9>seventy two, but yes, walks out, that's true, and I mean,

0:25:20.000 --> 0:25:22.960
<v Speaker 9>and to that point, on the women's side, they have

0:25:23.000 --> 0:25:25.240
<v Speaker 9>an issue because the European League is the women the

0:25:25.480 --> 0:25:28.480
<v Speaker 9>super League in the UK and some of these teams

0:25:28.520 --> 0:25:32.840
<v Speaker 9>in Spain and elsewhere that have connections to their men's sides,

0:25:32.880 --> 0:25:36.200
<v Speaker 9>so Barcelona, Chelsea, these clubs, they're now starting to really

0:25:36.240 --> 0:25:40.520
<v Speaker 9>invest in women's soccer and they already have emotional attachments

0:25:40.640 --> 0:25:42.720
<v Speaker 9>through the men's sides with a lot of fans, and

0:25:42.800 --> 0:25:45.840
<v Speaker 9>they're in some cases paying more than the National Women's

0:25:45.840 --> 0:25:48.000
<v Speaker 9>Soccer League for talent. And that's going to be a

0:25:48.080 --> 0:25:50.439
<v Speaker 9>challenge because you have to have whoever the equivalent to

0:25:50.520 --> 0:25:52.840
<v Speaker 9>MESSI is say, and you have to be able to

0:25:52.840 --> 0:25:55.240
<v Speaker 9>say we are the best league in the world, and

0:25:55.280 --> 0:25:57.919
<v Speaker 9>they're going to have to compete. Sam Kerr left for Chelsea.

0:25:58.080 --> 0:26:02.040
<v Speaker 9>She's the Australian player, she's the highest paid player in

0:26:02.040 --> 0:26:03.879
<v Speaker 9>the world. She does not play in the National Women's

0:26:03.880 --> 0:26:05.919
<v Speaker 9>Soccer League. So as they grow, they're not only going

0:26:05.960 --> 0:26:08.359
<v Speaker 9>to have to invest in all the things that you

0:26:08.400 --> 0:26:11.760
<v Speaker 9>have to do stadiums and so on, but they're going

0:26:11.840 --> 0:26:13.399
<v Speaker 9>to have to compete for talent.

0:26:13.560 --> 0:26:16.200
<v Speaker 2>When you say highest paid player in the world, we're

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:19.280
<v Speaker 2>talking We're not talking millions of dollars a year. No,

0:26:19.440 --> 0:26:21.560
<v Speaker 2>we're talking less than a half million dollars a year.

0:26:21.640 --> 0:26:23.080
<v Speaker 2>That was shocking for me to say.

0:26:23.280 --> 0:26:25.840
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, I mean, she is reportedly the highest paid player

0:26:25.840 --> 0:26:29.280
<v Speaker 9>in women's football and she makes about four hundred fifty

0:26:29.280 --> 0:26:30.040
<v Speaker 9>thousand a year.

0:26:29.920 --> 0:26:32.320
<v Speaker 2>Which, don't get me wrong, that's yeah, really good money, right,

0:26:32.400 --> 0:26:34.639
<v Speaker 2>but that's not right men's soccer money.

0:26:34.680 --> 0:26:34.760
<v Speaker 4>No.

0:26:34.840 --> 0:26:37.040
<v Speaker 9>I mean, on top of that, people like Alex Morgan

0:26:37.160 --> 0:26:40.199
<v Speaker 9>have real opportunities obviously in the sort of commercial space,

0:26:40.400 --> 0:26:44.359
<v Speaker 9>but it's still a huge disparity. And that is another

0:26:44.440 --> 0:26:47.920
<v Speaker 9>thing that comes with maturity, right, because really, when you've

0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:51.239
<v Speaker 9>hit it big is when you're making streaming money or

0:26:51.640 --> 0:26:54.800
<v Speaker 9>media rights money in the billions and that's when you

0:26:54.880 --> 0:26:57.879
<v Speaker 9>then probably have a collective bargaining agreement that says players

0:26:57.920 --> 0:26:59.880
<v Speaker 9>get half of that, and then the contracts get huge.

0:27:00.160 --> 0:27:04.119
<v Speaker 9>Before that, it's more difficult to generate that kind of

0:27:04.200 --> 0:27:05.200
<v Speaker 9>those kinds of salaries.

0:27:05.280 --> 0:27:07.520
<v Speaker 5>It makes me think about what the audience looks like, too,

0:27:07.680 --> 0:27:10.439
<v Speaker 5>because the reason that I have been drawn to women's

0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:13.680
<v Speaker 5>soccer is because of the activism surrounding it. And I'm

0:27:13.720 --> 0:27:15.760
<v Speaker 5>sure that that is not the case for the majority

0:27:15.760 --> 0:27:18.720
<v Speaker 5>of fans, but that's what got me into it. How

0:27:18.800 --> 0:27:20.840
<v Speaker 5>much of that are you seeing people who are in

0:27:20.880 --> 0:27:25.520
<v Speaker 5>it for the pro these women getting paid more eventually someday.

0:27:25.600 --> 0:27:28.080
<v Speaker 9>Viewership, I mean it's you know, if you go I

0:27:28.160 --> 0:27:31.439
<v Speaker 9>go to Gotham FC matches out in New Jersey and

0:27:31.920 --> 0:27:34.880
<v Speaker 9>there's definitely, like the signs in the crowd, a lot

0:27:34.880 --> 0:27:37.960
<v Speaker 9>of them are about social justice, about believing women, these

0:27:38.040 --> 0:27:41.520
<v Speaker 9>kinds of things about pay. So there's an element of

0:27:41.520 --> 0:27:43.600
<v Speaker 9>that is what are I think some of the core

0:27:43.680 --> 0:27:47.040
<v Speaker 9>fans are there for. And it's definitely a piece of

0:27:47.080 --> 0:27:50.040
<v Speaker 9>the attraction for this, that idea that it's about time

0:27:50.320 --> 0:27:53.159
<v Speaker 9>that we started supporting and following women's sports on a

0:27:53.200 --> 0:27:55.560
<v Speaker 9>power of the men's I think for the league to grow,

0:27:55.600 --> 0:27:57.000
<v Speaker 9>it has to break out of that. And that's what

0:27:57.040 --> 0:27:59.680
<v Speaker 9>you're starting to see now where it's just an entertainment

0:27:59.680 --> 0:28:04.680
<v Speaker 9>proper position. These are the best. These are fast, exciting, quality,

0:28:04.720 --> 0:28:07.760
<v Speaker 9>talented players and competitive, intense matches that you're going to

0:28:07.840 --> 0:28:10.199
<v Speaker 9>want to see the outcome. You're going to care who wins.

0:28:10.720 --> 0:28:12.760
<v Speaker 9>And that's when you get to I think, you know,

0:28:12.920 --> 0:28:15.160
<v Speaker 9>stronger investment proposition.

0:28:15.400 --> 0:28:18.880
<v Speaker 3>How much is writing on the performance of the women's team,

0:28:19.280 --> 0:28:21.600
<v Speaker 3>the American women's team in the World Cup right now?

0:28:21.640 --> 0:28:24.360
<v Speaker 3>Because I mean, like I mentioned just there was.

0:28:24.320 --> 0:28:31.320
<v Speaker 9>This tie, right and like well tonight, yeah, Portugal tomorrow

0:28:31.480 --> 0:28:32.000
<v Speaker 9>three am.

0:28:32.640 --> 0:28:35.119
<v Speaker 3>So so you know, for real, like a lot is

0:28:35.119 --> 0:28:38.959
<v Speaker 3>writing on this right Like if if somehow America doesn't

0:28:39.040 --> 0:28:42.240
<v Speaker 3>do that, well, like what does that do for this

0:28:43.360 --> 0:28:44.640
<v Speaker 3>you know interest in the sport here?

0:28:45.280 --> 0:28:47.600
<v Speaker 9>They have So the NWSL has twenty two of the

0:28:47.600 --> 0:28:50.200
<v Speaker 9>twenty three players on the US team. So I spoke

0:28:50.240 --> 0:28:51.880
<v Speaker 9>with the commissioner, Jessica Berman.

0:28:51.600 --> 0:28:53.080
<v Speaker 3>Who's the one who's the one that's not.

0:28:54.760 --> 0:29:00.920
<v Speaker 9>Plays in France for leon Oran, but they so they

0:29:01.000 --> 0:29:03.040
<v Speaker 9>you know, I spoke with Jessica Berman. She would she said,

0:29:03.080 --> 0:29:05.479
<v Speaker 9>as an American, I'm rooting for the US team and

0:29:05.520 --> 0:29:08.680
<v Speaker 9>reminded me that they have sixty one players total across

0:29:08.720 --> 0:29:11.520
<v Speaker 9>all the rosters are on half the teams, so they

0:29:11.560 --> 0:29:14.320
<v Speaker 9>have a stake in a lot of these clubs. But

0:29:14.360 --> 0:29:16.840
<v Speaker 9>it's clear that I think they would love to see

0:29:16.880 --> 0:29:19.400
<v Speaker 9>a fifth World Cup victory and these players to come

0:29:19.440 --> 0:29:22.480
<v Speaker 9>back to their teams which are playing right now, have

0:29:22.600 --> 0:29:25.640
<v Speaker 9>them come back in the late summer fall and be

0:29:25.960 --> 0:29:30.040
<v Speaker 9>returning heroes and juice the short term certainly, you know.

0:29:30.320 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 9>But in the meantime they are They put together a

0:29:33.040 --> 0:29:36.520
<v Speaker 9>marketing team to advertise and promote around the World Cup

0:29:36.560 --> 0:29:39.640
<v Speaker 9>to say, hey, if you love watching these players on

0:29:39.680 --> 0:29:41.960
<v Speaker 9>this stage, come and watch them on our stage when

0:29:41.960 --> 0:29:42.760
<v Speaker 9>they get back.

0:29:42.680 --> 0:29:45.600
<v Speaker 3>Right or now right, it's like all the best players

0:29:45.680 --> 0:29:47.120
<v Speaker 3>are going to disappear for a little while.

0:29:47.160 --> 0:29:48.880
<v Speaker 9>No, I mean I have not gone to a Gotha

0:29:48.960 --> 0:29:51.360
<v Speaker 9>match during the World Cup because you know, the best

0:29:51.360 --> 0:29:54.320
<v Speaker 9>players aren't there. Yeah, so's it's a short term loss

0:29:54.320 --> 0:29:55.320
<v Speaker 9>for them.

0:29:55.800 --> 0:30:00.320
<v Speaker 2>The marketers, the Nikes of the world, the huge, huge

0:30:00.480 --> 0:30:04.040
<v Speaker 2>consumer package goods companies that want to be associated with

0:30:04.080 --> 0:30:07.280
<v Speaker 2>something really cool. Are they stepping up?

0:30:08.120 --> 0:30:10.600
<v Speaker 9>They have been, and it's been interesting because you look

0:30:10.640 --> 0:30:15.680
<v Speaker 9>at Budweiser, or now it's bud Light. Uh uh. Nike

0:30:16.400 --> 0:30:21.320
<v Speaker 9>is a big one MasterCard. I believe those deals. They've

0:30:21.360 --> 0:30:23.800
<v Speaker 9>been investing in the league even as it was going

0:30:23.840 --> 0:30:27.480
<v Speaker 9>through this scandal and the Sally ATE's report and really

0:30:27.560 --> 0:30:31.520
<v Speaker 9>a lot of questions about player treatment, harassment, abuse, and

0:30:31.640 --> 0:30:35.479
<v Speaker 9>they stuck with them through that and and have I

0:30:35.480 --> 0:30:38.480
<v Speaker 9>think because the league showed that it wanted to you know,

0:30:38.840 --> 0:30:43.120
<v Speaker 9>clean house. But there that that side of the of

0:30:43.400 --> 0:30:46.680
<v Speaker 9>the sort of investment, you know, the media, the media

0:30:46.720 --> 0:30:50.520
<v Speaker 9>side is small, the ownership side is getting bigger fast.

0:30:50.600 --> 0:30:53.040
<v Speaker 9>But I think the sponsorship side has maybe been the

0:30:53.080 --> 0:30:56.800
<v Speaker 9>strongest over the last few years because partly what you

0:30:56.840 --> 0:30:59.520
<v Speaker 9>were describing of just there's a glow around these teams.

0:30:59.520 --> 0:31:02.000
<v Speaker 9>It's not that they're great athletes and it's a great

0:31:02.080 --> 0:31:05.760
<v Speaker 9>sport to watch, but these people are sort of social

0:31:05.840 --> 0:31:06.600
<v Speaker 9>heroes as well.

0:31:08.000 --> 0:31:15.520
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so I'm curious, like if if all these players

0:31:15.760 --> 0:31:19.800
<v Speaker 3>have this World Cup they go back to, uh to

0:31:19.880 --> 0:31:23.640
<v Speaker 3>their regular regular teams, who am I supposed to watch?

0:31:24.240 --> 0:31:26.640
<v Speaker 3>Like you know, you you make going to pitch for

0:31:26.800 --> 0:31:31.360
<v Speaker 3>Jersey here, But like you know, like how there's obviously

0:31:31.400 --> 0:31:36.120
<v Speaker 3>there are very fan centric places like the Portland team

0:31:36.200 --> 0:31:40.040
<v Speaker 3>Portland forms is viewed as like an example of what

0:31:40.040 --> 0:31:42.760
<v Speaker 3>this can really look like. Is that true everywhere?

0:31:42.760 --> 0:31:42.920
<v Speaker 10>Though?

0:31:42.960 --> 0:31:44.920
<v Speaker 3>I mean there's these pockets right and like you have

0:31:45.280 --> 0:31:47.760
<v Speaker 3>and you know, this is big money heading towards San Francisco.

0:31:48.760 --> 0:31:52.240
<v Speaker 3>So what's the whole league like when there's like really

0:31:52.280 --> 0:31:55.800
<v Speaker 3>really strong followings and then you know, I don't know

0:31:55.800 --> 0:31:56.680
<v Speaker 3>what Louis Tho's.

0:31:56.600 --> 0:31:58.880
<v Speaker 9>Like, right, No, this is something they need to get

0:31:58.960 --> 0:32:02.280
<v Speaker 9>right because there's huge you know, Angel CITYFC came out

0:32:02.320 --> 0:32:05.520
<v Speaker 9>with a huge amount of attendance and buzz to Portland Thorns.

0:32:05.520 --> 0:32:08.040
<v Speaker 9>You mentioned Raining champs. They have Sophia Smith the MVP.

0:32:08.920 --> 0:32:12.320
<v Speaker 9>They have a really strong following. BAFC, the new team

0:32:12.400 --> 0:32:16.000
<v Speaker 9>coming next year, looks like set to really explode. Kansas

0:32:16.040 --> 0:32:20.320
<v Speaker 9>City's doing great, but it's not across the whole league

0:32:20.360 --> 0:32:23.000
<v Speaker 9>for sure, and they're looking to expand to sixteen teams

0:32:23.080 --> 0:32:25.600
<v Speaker 9>within the next few years. And what they're going to

0:32:25.720 --> 0:32:29.080
<v Speaker 9>need is that kind of enthusiasm league wide, and that's

0:32:29.120 --> 0:32:31.760
<v Speaker 9>going to mean not just building that fan base, but

0:32:32.000 --> 0:32:34.800
<v Speaker 9>having the type of ownership that wants to spend the

0:32:34.800 --> 0:32:36.040
<v Speaker 9>money that that takes.

0:32:36.040 --> 0:32:38.600
<v Speaker 3>And stars too, right, Like the stars can kind of

0:32:38.600 --> 0:32:41.800
<v Speaker 3>cut through everything so who are people on the women's

0:32:41.800 --> 0:32:45.720
<v Speaker 3>team right now who's viewed? We know who the regulars are,

0:32:45.720 --> 0:32:48.720
<v Speaker 3>but like if somebody's gonna rise up and really kind

0:32:48.760 --> 0:32:51.080
<v Speaker 3>of prove themselves, who are some of those candidates.

0:32:51.400 --> 0:32:53.880
<v Speaker 9>Well, I mean, you look at Alyssa Thompson eighteen years

0:32:53.920 --> 0:32:57.760
<v Speaker 9>old at Angel CITYFC. I think that's a person that

0:32:57.800 --> 0:33:00.560
<v Speaker 9>many people expect, along with Sophia Smith to the face

0:33:00.680 --> 0:33:03.240
<v Speaker 9>of the women's game once the sort of current generation

0:33:03.760 --> 0:33:08.760
<v Speaker 9>Alex Morgan, Megan Raupino star eighteen. Yeah, and they have.

0:33:09.000 --> 0:33:12.000
<v Speaker 9>That's another thing that they've developed lately is they've got

0:33:12.000 --> 0:33:14.240
<v Speaker 9>fifteen year olds. A fifteen year old scored the other night,

0:33:14.320 --> 0:33:16.800
<v Speaker 9>set the record for youngest player to score in the league.

0:33:16.800 --> 0:33:19.440
<v Speaker 9>Because they've set up a mechanism for high school players

0:33:19.480 --> 0:33:22.080
<v Speaker 9>to be able to play, and they're seeing young athletes

0:33:22.760 --> 0:33:25.840
<v Speaker 9>skip the chance to go to Stanford or North Carolina

0:33:26.560 --> 0:33:28.800
<v Speaker 9>to play in the league, which tells you that they

0:33:28.840 --> 0:33:31.320
<v Speaker 9>believe that this this league can really be a platform

0:33:31.320 --> 0:33:31.880
<v Speaker 9>for the future.

0:33:32.560 --> 0:33:34.480
<v Speaker 2>So when a high school student plays, do they get

0:33:34.480 --> 0:33:36.400
<v Speaker 2>paid and then if they get paid, they can't go

0:33:36.440 --> 0:33:37.040
<v Speaker 2>to college?

0:33:37.400 --> 0:33:39.880
<v Speaker 9>That's right, They're they're doing their opting to do this

0:33:39.920 --> 0:33:42.719
<v Speaker 9>instead of going to college, but a decision to make

0:33:42.720 --> 0:33:44.720
<v Speaker 9>it fifteen. Yeah. I mean in some cases they're still

0:33:44.720 --> 0:33:48.440
<v Speaker 9>in high school, so they might you know, things can change,

0:33:48.440 --> 0:33:50.040
<v Speaker 9>but I think they look at it as you can

0:33:50.200 --> 0:33:51.360
<v Speaker 9>still go to college later.

0:33:51.640 --> 0:33:53.640
<v Speaker 2>You're still are you allowed to play to play in college?

0:33:53.680 --> 0:33:53.920
<v Speaker 9>Sorry?

0:33:53.920 --> 0:33:56.160
<v Speaker 2>If you accept is that has that rule changed?

0:33:57.000 --> 0:33:59.080
<v Speaker 9>That's a good question. I think you can go back.

0:33:59.160 --> 0:34:01.960
<v Speaker 9>I don't know if you're eligibility as a as a

0:34:02.120 --> 0:34:04.440
<v Speaker 9>that's a great question. As a Division one player, would

0:34:04.440 --> 0:34:06.440
<v Speaker 9>be would be totally expired if you went pro in

0:34:06.560 --> 0:34:08.399
<v Speaker 9>n W s L. I don't think we've we've never

0:34:08.520 --> 0:34:09.320
<v Speaker 9>that's uncharted.

0:34:09.960 --> 0:34:11.520
<v Speaker 1>Joy, we'll find out.

0:34:12.080 --> 0:34:13.800
<v Speaker 2>Good story, check it for.

0:34:16.640 --> 0:34:18.640
<v Speaker 9>You can certainly go back to school though, if you

0:34:18.680 --> 0:34:23.840
<v Speaker 9>want to get it exactly.

0:34:23.960 --> 0:34:25.759
<v Speaker 5>Thank you so much for joining us, both of you.

0:34:26.080 --> 0:34:28.480
<v Speaker 5>Joel Webber of course our editor here in Ira Boudue,

0:34:33.120 --> 0:34:33.760
<v Speaker 5>the journal.

0:34:34.800 --> 0:34:35.799
<v Speaker 8>Now about you let me drive?

0:34:36.080 --> 0:34:41.400
<v Speaker 9>Oh no, no, no, no, please travel.

0:34:42.600 --> 0:34:43.359
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive.

0:34:45.600 --> 0:34:46.520
<v Speaker 2>It's a good question.

0:34:50.280 --> 0:34:52.520
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the clothes.

0:34:55.480 --> 0:34:56.720
<v Speaker 9>On Bloomberg Radio.

0:34:58.760 --> 0:35:01.319
<v Speaker 5>You know, I've just realized it's Tim. You were on

0:35:01.520 --> 0:35:05.000
<v Speaker 5>path leave during the massive AI rally, so you got

0:35:05.080 --> 0:35:09.280
<v Speaker 5>to miss saying AI twenty thousand times. It's broadcast.

0:35:09.400 --> 0:35:12.200
<v Speaker 2>I get to keep saying it, Yes, disagreed, this AI

0:35:12.280 --> 0:35:13.120
<v Speaker 2>rally continues.

0:35:13.280 --> 0:35:15.800
<v Speaker 5>That is that is so true? Call it AI euphoria,

0:35:15.840 --> 0:35:19.160
<v Speaker 5>the Foamo rally, a classic bull market, whatever you want

0:35:19.200 --> 0:35:21.279
<v Speaker 5>to call it. The market has obviously been on a

0:35:21.320 --> 0:35:24.960
<v Speaker 5>tear driven by that exact AI rally. It's sept for

0:35:25.000 --> 0:35:28.279
<v Speaker 5>its longest streak of monthly games since August twenty twenty

0:35:28.360 --> 0:35:30.880
<v Speaker 5>one for the S and P. So as always with

0:35:30.920 --> 0:35:32.560
<v Speaker 5>too much of a good thing, you got to wonder

0:35:32.719 --> 0:35:34.440
<v Speaker 5>when are we going to start to see the cracks?

0:35:34.440 --> 0:35:37.120
<v Speaker 5>And that's exactly what I want to ask our next guest.

0:35:37.160 --> 0:35:41.000
<v Speaker 5>We've got Vivian Hairston, director of Portfolio Management at Huntington

0:35:41.160 --> 0:35:42.560
<v Speaker 5>Private Bank, joining.

0:35:42.320 --> 0:35:43.359
<v Speaker 9>Us on zoom.

0:35:43.440 --> 0:35:46.879
<v Speaker 5>Vivian, thank you so much for being with us. We're

0:35:46.920 --> 0:35:50.959
<v Speaker 5>seeing that stock exposure for traders at record highs and

0:35:51.040 --> 0:35:55.760
<v Speaker 5>the rally really driven by that magnificent seven big tech names.

0:35:56.160 --> 0:35:59.439
<v Speaker 5>Is there kind of a scary catalyst looming out there

0:35:59.520 --> 0:36:03.600
<v Speaker 5>that you are anticipating and that could start to kind

0:36:03.640 --> 0:36:04.560
<v Speaker 5>of turn this market?

0:36:06.280 --> 0:36:09.600
<v Speaker 10>Well, I want thank you for having me. I won't

0:36:09.640 --> 0:36:14.480
<v Speaker 10>say that there's a scary catalyst. We are cautiously optimistic

0:36:14.600 --> 0:36:23.160
<v Speaker 10>regarding markets. Really looking at the consumer, the consumer remained strong,

0:36:23.320 --> 0:36:28.200
<v Speaker 10>and so markets and the economy both we're cautiously optimistic.

0:36:28.280 --> 0:36:31.719
<v Speaker 7>Of course, the FED did raise rates just.

0:36:32.719 --> 0:36:37.040
<v Speaker 10>By twenty five basis points, no surprise last week. But

0:36:37.440 --> 0:36:42.360
<v Speaker 10>we in looking out next twelve six to twelve months,

0:36:42.360 --> 0:36:46.479
<v Speaker 10>we're saying perhaps now that there's maybe a fifty five

0:36:46.680 --> 0:36:51.239
<v Speaker 10>percent chance that we'll see a recession. But overall on

0:36:51.440 --> 0:36:56.440
<v Speaker 10>markets again, as you just mentioned, you know, looking at

0:36:56.440 --> 0:36:58.920
<v Speaker 10>equity markets, they've been very strong.

0:36:58.840 --> 0:37:02.920
<v Speaker 2>They really have. Oh I just I want to go

0:37:02.960 --> 0:37:05.000
<v Speaker 2>back to the fifty five percent chance that there's going

0:37:05.040 --> 0:37:07.239
<v Speaker 2>to be a recession. Is that Huntington Private Banks view?

0:37:08.280 --> 0:37:08.719
<v Speaker 2>It is?

0:37:09.120 --> 0:37:09.520
<v Speaker 7>It is?

0:37:09.680 --> 0:37:12.040
<v Speaker 2>Did that change last week after you heard fedhair Japowe

0:37:12.080 --> 0:37:14.440
<v Speaker 2>will say that even though the internal economists at the

0:37:14.440 --> 0:37:17.520
<v Speaker 2>FED are no longer seeing a recession as their base case.

0:37:18.360 --> 0:37:23.640
<v Speaker 10>Actually we became a little bit more cautious before the meeting,

0:37:24.080 --> 0:37:29.680
<v Speaker 10>and it was, you know, looking at the markets, and

0:37:30.360 --> 0:37:34.000
<v Speaker 10>really after that June meeting, of course, Chair Pal was

0:37:34.160 --> 0:37:39.440
<v Speaker 10>very hawkish, and so last week of course dialed it

0:37:39.520 --> 0:37:43.160
<v Speaker 10>back a little bit, not as pessimistic, it seems, but

0:37:43.560 --> 0:37:49.200
<v Speaker 10>we reduced our were equity waitings a little bit before

0:37:49.840 --> 0:37:53.720
<v Speaker 10>the FED meeting, just looking at where equity domestic equity

0:37:53.760 --> 0:37:56.920
<v Speaker 10>markets had been. I really just thought it was best,

0:37:57.680 --> 0:37:59.560
<v Speaker 10>you know, to lock in some of those games.

0:38:00.840 --> 0:38:04.040
<v Speaker 5>When you think about the recession call, I wonder to

0:38:04.080 --> 0:38:07.680
<v Speaker 5>what extent you feel like company earnings are part of

0:38:07.719 --> 0:38:10.640
<v Speaker 5>that calculation. Are you looking at earnings that we're going

0:38:10.719 --> 0:38:12.680
<v Speaker 5>to get this week from the likes of Amazon and

0:38:12.719 --> 0:38:16.480
<v Speaker 5>Apple when sussing out the strength of our economy.

0:38:17.840 --> 0:38:21.640
<v Speaker 10>Well, we did consider the fact that earnings in the

0:38:21.680 --> 0:38:25.759
<v Speaker 10>first quarter came in better than expected. Of course, those

0:38:25.800 --> 0:38:31.120
<v Speaker 10>earnings were better than expected on lowered expectations. And what

0:38:31.160 --> 0:38:35.480
<v Speaker 10>we're hearing now is we're beginning to hear some earnings

0:38:35.560 --> 0:38:41.960
<v Speaker 10>revisions coming down again, forward earnings coming down again, and

0:38:42.040 --> 0:38:47.240
<v Speaker 10>so we are kind of again just being cautious. We've

0:38:47.280 --> 0:38:50.600
<v Speaker 10>seen so far. I think the expectation coming into the

0:38:50.680 --> 0:38:55.880
<v Speaker 10>quarter was down about nine percent, and what we're seeing,

0:38:55.880 --> 0:38:59.439
<v Speaker 10>I think is somewhere about nine point two, and so

0:38:59.520 --> 0:39:01.240
<v Speaker 10>that provide us caution.

0:39:01.800 --> 0:39:04.319
<v Speaker 5>And I noticed that you trimmed your equities holdings by

0:39:04.480 --> 0:39:07.040
<v Speaker 5>ten percent and added to fixed income, which I'm so

0:39:07.160 --> 0:39:11.320
<v Speaker 5>curious about. It feels like you're really getting paid to

0:39:11.400 --> 0:39:14.520
<v Speaker 5>go into fixed income right now? How much are you

0:39:14.880 --> 0:39:21.960
<v Speaker 5>changing your thinking on allocation between stocks and bonds there, So.

0:39:22.040 --> 0:39:27.400
<v Speaker 10>We actually trimmed by five percent are exper holdings, and

0:39:27.440 --> 0:39:29.680
<v Speaker 10>then we took that five and you are correct, and

0:39:29.719 --> 0:39:31.040
<v Speaker 10>we added it to.

0:39:31.080 --> 0:39:33.560
<v Speaker 7>Fixed income for a number of reasons.

0:39:33.560 --> 0:39:37.600
<v Speaker 10>Of course, you know, fixed income is finally attractive after

0:39:37.719 --> 0:39:42.240
<v Speaker 10>twenty some years, and so now you're seeing those yields

0:39:42.239 --> 0:39:47.680
<v Speaker 10>on fixed income and cash above the inflation, and so

0:39:48.560 --> 0:39:52.600
<v Speaker 10>that third leg of the stool is available to investors.

0:39:52.640 --> 0:39:57.880
<v Speaker 10>And we just thought, looking at domestic equities again, looking

0:39:57.920 --> 0:40:01.280
<v Speaker 10>at those returns, some of those returns we'd be happy

0:40:01.280 --> 0:40:04.480
<v Speaker 10>to have had just for a year, let alone, you know,

0:40:04.600 --> 0:40:07.680
<v Speaker 10>six seven months into a year, and so we thought

0:40:07.719 --> 0:40:10.560
<v Speaker 10>it was prutent just to take some of those gains

0:40:10.600 --> 0:40:11.360
<v Speaker 10>off the table.

0:40:12.200 --> 0:40:14.080
<v Speaker 2>So raise is the question about somebody who comes to

0:40:14.120 --> 0:40:16.319
<v Speaker 2>you right now with you know, a few million dollars.

0:40:16.400 --> 0:40:18.880
<v Speaker 2>Let's say they had an exit. They want you to

0:40:18.920 --> 0:40:21.920
<v Speaker 2>deploy the money for them. They have a time horizon

0:40:21.960 --> 0:40:24.319
<v Speaker 2>of they've got they've got a long time horise, and

0:40:24.320 --> 0:40:27.279
<v Speaker 2>this is money for later. Are you comfortable putting money

0:40:27.280 --> 0:40:28.120
<v Speaker 2>in equities right now?

0:40:29.560 --> 0:40:33.840
<v Speaker 10>We are, And you know, really not just right now

0:40:33.960 --> 0:40:37.480
<v Speaker 10>when if we kind of take a look back, that

0:40:37.680 --> 0:40:42.120
<v Speaker 10>five percent yield on cash is very attractive and one might.

0:40:42.000 --> 0:40:43.680
<v Speaker 7>Be tempted to.

0:40:45.200 --> 0:40:48.480
<v Speaker 10>Perhaps hold the money in cash. But really, as you

0:40:48.560 --> 0:40:52.799
<v Speaker 10>mentioned earlier, the returns that we've seen inequities, they've been

0:40:53.200 --> 0:40:56.839
<v Speaker 10>relatively narrow. Of course, we've seen that leadership in those

0:40:57.719 --> 0:41:03.799
<v Speaker 10>seven tech consumers or communication services company. So now what

0:41:03.840 --> 0:41:08.279
<v Speaker 10>we're beginning to see is really that performance began to

0:41:08.440 --> 0:41:17.200
<v Speaker 10>broad now whereas communication services information technology is still leading

0:41:17.280 --> 0:41:20.759
<v Speaker 10>here today, what we're beginning to see is a little

0:41:20.800 --> 0:41:24.080
<v Speaker 10>bit of broadening, you know, if you've used energy as

0:41:24.120 --> 0:41:27.520
<v Speaker 10>an example of about seven percent so far this month.

0:41:27.600 --> 0:41:30.280
<v Speaker 5>Sure, and in our final kind of forty five seconds

0:41:30.280 --> 0:41:31.600
<v Speaker 5>with you here, I want to talk about some of

0:41:31.600 --> 0:41:34.279
<v Speaker 5>the stocks you've recently added in our note here. We

0:41:34.360 --> 0:41:38.680
<v Speaker 5>have Adobe, American Express, T Mobile, and Netflix in that list.

0:41:38.880 --> 0:41:41.680
<v Speaker 5>Talk to me about your thinking on Netflix because the

0:41:41.680 --> 0:41:44.680
<v Speaker 5>earnings picture was not great, particularly in the market reaction.

0:41:46.400 --> 0:41:50.680
<v Speaker 10>Well, really, you know again just thinking about the consumer,

0:41:51.320 --> 0:41:56.120
<v Speaker 10>and my area of expertise isn't the individual companies. We

0:41:56.200 --> 0:42:00.120
<v Speaker 10>have a wonderful research team that could probably talk a

0:42:00.120 --> 0:42:02.719
<v Speaker 10>little bit and go a little bit deeper, but.

0:42:02.760 --> 0:42:04.680
<v Speaker 7>Again looking at consumer trends.

0:42:04.719 --> 0:42:08.879
<v Speaker 10>Of course, Netflix earlier changed their model a little bit

0:42:09.000 --> 0:42:13.240
<v Speaker 10>in terms of how they were going to be charging

0:42:13.360 --> 0:42:19.320
<v Speaker 10>clients or fiend clients, not sharing those passwords and like,

0:42:19.400 --> 0:42:22.239
<v Speaker 10>and so we anticipate that they will begin to see

0:42:22.239 --> 0:42:23.719
<v Speaker 10>a turn and.

0:42:23.719 --> 0:42:24.839
<v Speaker 7>Some better earnings.

0:42:25.280 --> 0:42:26.799
<v Speaker 2>Vivian, we're gonna have to leave it there. We really

0:42:26.800 --> 0:42:30.200
<v Speaker 2>appreciate you taking the time this afternoon. Vivian Herston is

0:42:30.280 --> 0:42:33.920
<v Speaker 2>a director of portfolio management at Huntington at Private Banks.

0:42:33.960 --> 0:42:36.160
<v Speaker 2>She joins us via zoom this afternoon.

0:42:37.040 --> 0:42:41.680
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