WEBVTT - Six Flags, Meta, and Markets 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.000 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:05.240 my co host Matt Miller. 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:09.600 Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:13.600 and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.279 Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:20.520 you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:23.320 Daniel de martinoz Booth Joints and she's the CEO in 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:27.200 chief Strategistic QI Research. Danielle The market likes with your 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:30.160 fed Chairman j Powell had to say, shoulday, what's your takeaway? 0:00:31.040 --> 0:00:34.800 Well, he didn't say much, Okay, I mean at the 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:35.400 beginning he. 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:36.640 Kind of read a lot of his answers. 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:38.920 I'm like, dude, you're still reading your your statements over 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:40.120 quit reading already. 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:42.519 I thought that was weird. I honestly, I listened. I 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:45.600 was on Comfort Radio, and I thought it was awkward. 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:48.159 Why isn't this guy like taking a stand one way 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:50.839 or the other one? Why even bother having the if 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:51.280 you're not going to. 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:53.760 Say at the dot plot, oh it's meaningless. You know, 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:57.120 we've got all these employment reports and CPI reports before 0:00:57.160 --> 0:00:59.840 we get to December twelfth and thirteen, So disregard that. 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:03.000 I mean, it was it was I'm like, dude, do 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:04.400 you know you're talking out loud? 0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:07.399 You're like on TV TV, right, yeah, I mean this, dude, 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:10.640 And I think what was disappointing was that so many 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:15.120 of the reporters asked the same regurgitated question we reworded 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:18.720 over and over and abotton. I can somebody please take 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:21.160 off the gag order and let somebody ask him about 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:22.160 the balance sheet already? 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:23.800 All right, tell us about the balance sheet. What would 0:01:23.800 --> 0:01:24.840 you like about the balance sheet? 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:28.720 Well, I mean, gosh, you've seen other deposits, liabilities. My mentor, 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:31.520 doctor Lacey Hunt, you always I follow them every single week. 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:34.440 We're about to break underneath fifteen trillion. 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:35.520 When the data hit tomorrow afternoon. 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:37.639 Wait, what do you say about Lacy Hunt from Hooisington, Right. 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:38.440 Yeah, he's my mentor. 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:40.040 Oh so he's taught me how. 0:01:40.280 --> 0:01:42.360 I mean, every single week the Fed's data comes out 0:01:42.360 --> 0:01:46.319 and it shows you weekly liquidity on bank balance sheets, 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:49.040 and you've gone from just about seventeen trillion to next 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:52.320 week tomorrow afternoon, you're going to break fifteen trillion. You've 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:54.640 had two trillion dollars of liquidity sucked out of the 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:58.640 system because there's like a one point five multiple on 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:02.200 every dollar of quantity of tightening shows up as one 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:05.160 point five dollars of liquidity pulling being pulled out of 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.720 the system, which is why your bcy go functions on fire. 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:11.320 Okay, you've lost me and Paul already. I'm gonna say 0:02:11.360 --> 0:02:11.920 you see why I go. 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:18.600 That's your bankruptcy function. Look, it's companies rely on liquidity, 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:22.840 and right now we're seeing banks continue to tighten lending standards. 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:25.360 I mean, I'll be up and ready on Monday morning 0:02:25.360 --> 0:02:28.000 for the Senior Loan Officer survey, but the Dallas Fed 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:31.679 has a more frequent lending survey, and it's just got 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:34.680 getting tighter and tighter and tighter. Everything we heard from 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:39.720 Capital One ally they're seeing normalization in defaults and credit 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.480 card delinquencies and auto default. 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:44.640 Wait, you said normalization doing air quotes. 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:48.520 Normalization air quotes, that means that means it's going above subprime. 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:51.799 So it's not contained to subprimes. I love to quote pernanky, 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.000 but it's not contained a subprime. And that's what we're seeing. 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:56.160 We've seen about a twelve and. 0:02:56.160 --> 0:03:02.200 A half fold increase of prime all loans being downgraded 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:06.839 into subprime territory based on where they're trading right now 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:09.520 on bank balance sheets. We've never seen anything like this, 0:03:09.639 --> 0:03:11.920 and it's because when you put the rent on hold, 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:14.000 the auto payment on hold, when you paid people twenty 0:03:14.040 --> 0:03:16.480 five hundred dollars extra a month, when you put the 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:18.160 mortgages on, everything went on hold. 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:20.560 So we saw and Moody's has done some good work 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:20.800 on this. 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:25.760 We saw insane levels of Fico's score inflation during the 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:28.840 pandemic and now it's all coming back to bite because 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:34.840 weges just aren't there and layoffs. You've got continuing jobless 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:36.400 claims up six weeks in a row north of one 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:38.160 point eight. They're just on top of where they were 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:39.040 in twenty sixteen. 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:41.560 So is your biggest concern that the consumer is not 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:43.680 nearly as strong as maybe we think it is. 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:46.160 Oh, I think the consumers telling you they're not as strong. 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:48.640 I mean, if you looked inside of the final University 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:52.440 of Michigan consumer sentiment print at the medium tersile and 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:56.200 top tersile of earners, they're like, job cuts are coming, 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:59.360 and it's the lowest tersile that doesn't see it. Coming, 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:01.920 but we're seeing it come out in the data week 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:03.840 after week after week. I was I was talking to 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:08.119 Daily Jobcuts dot Com, the founder, and he's like, November 0:04:08.240 --> 0:04:12.240 seasonally a quiet time. People don't fire people into Thanksgiving 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:15.160 and in the holidays, and he's like, it's out. 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.039 They've come out of the gate. He seemed to twenty 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:18.880 five companies close in two days. 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:22.720 This is the Austrian hangover coming after all of that 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:27.000 insane stimulus stimulus, it's still going on. Remember that Canes 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:31.520 versus High k Rap video. Look, I mean crisis you've got. 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:33.560 You've got some people are going to be paying their 0:04:33.600 --> 0:04:36.600 mortgage for the first time in December. That's how long 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:39.440 FHA Forbearance has been going since March of twenty two. 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:41.640 All Right, I got a listener question here writing in, 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:45.040 did Danielle listen to the Drunken Miller interview with Paul 0:04:45.080 --> 0:04:49.400 Tudor Jones? Stan thinks rates are going higher because of 0:04:49.440 --> 0:04:52.359 an out of control debt profile of the US. Do 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:53.040 you agree? 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:55.320 I don't, No, I don't. 0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:57.680 I mean, we've been spending like drunken sailors since Reagan 0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.520 was in office. It's just I think Wall Street wants 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:00.400 a narrative right now. 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:03.560 But you know, Reagan boosted spending on the military. We 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:07.240 were talking yesterday to Paul's mentor, Cam Harvey from Duke, 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:09.719 and he pointed out that next year we're gonna have 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:13.799 interest payment costs of nine hundred billion dollars. We're gonna 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.440 pay more to service our debt than we do to 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:17.520 fund the military. 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:17.800 Yep. 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:19.960 Actually we passed that up in the at the end 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:22.280 of the fiscal year, about six hundred and eighty five 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:25.600 billion for military, eight hundred and eight billion fiscal year 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:28.880 ended August thirty one interest payments. So we've already we've 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:32.880 already rounded that. And I the shame about the fiscal 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:34.680 spending right now is it's. 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:35.400 Not doing much. 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:39.280 There's it's not creating anything. Like there's no Hoover Dam, 0:05:39.680 --> 0:05:41.000 there's no Holland Tunnel. 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:42.560 There's so little way. 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:45.680 They're working like crazy out there, the people out in Jersey, right, 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:47.640 John Tucker, they were building that Oh. 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:51.920 Yeah, number those gigantic cranes by the Gateway project. 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:54.159 Question, I stand correct, Hey we're building a tunnel. 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:55.560 Yeah, it'll be ready. 0:05:57.279 --> 0:05:59.359 I'm I'm always on the bridges going to LaGuardia. 0:05:59.440 --> 0:06:03.720 Sorry, exactly, So is recession in your scenario? In your I. 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:05.880 Think I think recession starts the current quarter. 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:08.320 Okay, this quarter Q four. 0:06:09.120 --> 0:06:13.200 As of this morning's jobless claims data, the only state 0:06:13.279 --> 0:06:16.760 holdout right now that does not have rising continuing jobless 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:18.240 claims year over here is Kentucky. 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:21.640 Well, I mean Florida, but that's that's a base effect 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:24.440 from Hurricane Ian. So that's gonna go away here. But 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:25.039 that's it. 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:28.080 I mean September twenty twenty two, there were zero states 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:29.760 with rising continuing jobless claims. 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:30.680 Now we got fifty. 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:33.040 Okay, so you have a recession in your outlook? 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:33.640 How deep? 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:34.120 How long? 0:06:35.000 --> 0:06:37.760 I think it's gonna last longer than we think because 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:41.040 we've pulled so much demand forward. We're seeing one furniture 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:42.800 company after another go out of business that had been 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:45.120 in business for one hundred years because we pulled so 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:47.320 much demand forward with all that stimulus money. 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:49.680 All Right, that's the hangover, dude. 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:52.159 It is a hangover, yes, but it's not as funny 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:52.760 as the movie. 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:55.280 So so should the Fed? 0:06:56.240 --> 0:06:57.280 What should the Fed do here? 0:06:57.680 --> 0:06:59.680 I think I think the Fed's on hold, I really do. 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:03.000 But again, it's about the balance sheet. Nobody's talking about Voldemort. 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:05.240 I'm saying it out loud. It's about the balance sheet, people, 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:05.760 It's real. 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:08.440 The worry. The worry is that the Fed went too 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:11.720 far right because, like Cam said, if you take out 0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:17.040 whatever they call it, rent equivalent, inflation is below two percent. 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:20.800 And our buddy j Hatfield from Infrastructure Capital a smart one. 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:25.280 He's got his CPI dash R where they replace the 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:28.320 housing component with ky Schiller and that's one point three 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:31.800 percent year over year compared to the four point Everything's 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:32.800 great in Dallas, right. 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:36.760 Well, no, Actually, war notices in the state of Textas 0:07:36.800 --> 0:07:39.160 have gone through the roof. That's what's hard to believe. 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:41.040 And it's no longer like super cheap to live there. 0:07:41.080 --> 0:07:43.560 So I mean, Austin's a cesspool of when it comes, 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:46.400 it's it's residential real estate ground zero. 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:48.200 It's a mess again. 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:50.040 And I'm a longhorn, and I mean, I love, I 0:07:50.080 --> 0:07:51.880 love Austin, but they overbuilt. 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:53.480 They overbuilt, and there's and they don't have any infrastructure for. 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:55.720 The true but they have limescooters. That's all I care about. 0:07:55.720 --> 0:07:59.320 Burn Martino, CEO and chief strategist Research. 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:03.920 You're listening to the Team Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:07.320 Markets weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot com, 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:10.560 the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:12.920 on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:17.000 A little bit of a M and a trade in 0:08:17.160 --> 0:08:21.679 the theme park business, Cedar Fair, six Flags, they're getting 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:23.320 together all Stock merger. 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:25.040 Let's break down a little bit. 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:26.120 We can do that with Jody Laura. 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:29.840 She covers the entertainment companies for Bloomberg Intelligence from the 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:33.920 credit side. So, Jody, thanks so much for joining us here. Boy, 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:36.200 I'm looking at the balance sheets of these two companies. 0:08:36.240 --> 0:08:36.959 They're almost the. 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:40.160 Exact same two and a half billion dollars of debt, 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:43.280 about five hundred million of ibadas, so they're both levered 0:08:43.280 --> 0:08:47.600 pretty highly around five times leverage. Here from your perspective, 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:49.680 what's the rational for putting these two companies together? 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:53.120 Fuir So, Paul, I mean, I think I think that's 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:55.240 a great question. Is that really at the end of 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:57.640 the day, why are these companies joining? And I think 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:02.239 it really comes down to the fact that the tailwinds 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:05.720 that they experienced during the pandemic have sort of petered off, 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:08.480 and now they're saying what's next for these companies, they've 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:12.120 experienced tremendous weather related issues this year. 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:15.840 That have sort of marred their opportunity and. 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:21.599 Benefiting from people spending on leisure. 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:24.439 Too hot, Yeah. 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:26.920 Well, so subplace was too hot, others it was too rainy. 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:30.200 It was just you know, a mix of storms and 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:32.960 events that have happened. I mean, you look in the 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:36.000 southern California area and it was too hot and then 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.040 there were floods, and then it was rainy, and it's 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:41.480 just I mean, each of their calls, other than this 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:43.839 one today, which obviously was just focused on the m 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:46.640 and a transaction, but the past two quarters, that was 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:50.120 sort of the explanation behind it was we didn't do 0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:52.400 well or as well as expected, and we didn't get 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:58.720 as much season pass buyers because of the effects of weather. 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:01.800 And I don't I know if that's necessarily going to 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:04.640 go away, but I think what they're hoping is the 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:11.480 expansion of their footprint will sort of diversify them enough 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:14.200 to make it so that weather isn't as much of 0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:16.800 an issue. I don't know if that's necessarily what I'd 0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:19.280 hang my hat on, but that's certainly their argument. 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:24.959 Got Disney. You look at Disney there love their theme 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:27.960 park business. Comcast loves its universal theme park business. They're 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:31.520 both of those companies are increasing dramatically. They're capital spending 0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:36.040 in those businesses. Is that just a benefit of scale 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:39.280 and that six Flags and Sedar don't enjoy that same 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:41.880 kind of scale, so this is one way to get there? 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:44.120 Well, I would say. 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:46.959 That they definitely have a lot of scale, particularly six Flags. 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:50.720 Maybe even some would argue too much scale. It's a 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:51.760 different business model. 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:55.559 When you're dealing with regional versus very focused theme parks. Right, 0:10:55.800 --> 0:11:01.000 So Disney, like SeaWorld, benefits from having Florida, having Southern California, 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:04.400 and so that of course helps them from a cash 0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:07.680 flow perspective, more consistency because they don't have to shut 0:11:07.720 --> 0:11:08.600 down for part of the year. 0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:11.360 For six Flags and Cedar Fair, it's. 0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:13.439 A little bit more regional. The type of customer is 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:15.920 a little bit different. It's not as much destination. They're 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:18.000 hoping to shift that a little bit and you're certainly 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:20.800 seeing that. You know, Cedar Fair does have hotels at 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:23.960 some of their properties, and so I think that the 0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:27.000 thought process is is that once you're a bit larger, 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:30.280 you can more actively have a branding and maybe more 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.760 of a presence everywhere you go. So if you're a 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:37.120 card carrier of a six Flags Great Adventure, you can 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:40.199 go to any six Flags. Perhaps maybe maybe that's the play, 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:43.000 is that you know a customer can participate in any area. 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:46.960 Well, can I ask about the dreaded phrase merger of equals? 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:49.000 I think they're. 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:51.679 Saying this themselves, like they think it's a good idea 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:55.560 to spin that. Daimler Chrysler said the same thing, and 0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:58.960 it was anything but I mean, what a load of bs? 0:11:58.679 --> 0:11:58.719 What? 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:01.520 What's who's buying? Who's buying whom? 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:03.040 Here? Right? 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:07.080 So they structured the deal interestingly, So Cedar Fair is. 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:10.520 An LP or an MLP specifically, so a limited partnership 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:12.559 right now, so they have unit holders. 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:14.680 Six Flags is your standard CE corporation. 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.040 And the way that they structured it is that Cedar 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.920 Fair will get fifty one point two percent of the 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:23.960 new company shares outstanding. And the reason why they did 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:26.080 that is I think it sort of helps them to 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.520 not trigger the change of control provision for bondholders, meaning 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:32.280 bond holders can't then put back the bonds at one 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:35.880 oh one percent of par and so that of course 0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:38.120 frees up some cash for the two companies. It makes 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:41.000 it a really stock for stock transaction, except for the 0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:46.319 dividends that Six Flags shareholders get with the closure of 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:50.240 the deal. And so I think it's an interesting structure. 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:55.920 It makes it a little bit more beneficial for bondholders 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:59.000 in some sense, particularly the Six Flags bondholders. We saw 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:01.640 the bond's rally today and that's a function of the 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:04.240 fact that you know, Cedar Fair does to some extent, 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:08.080 they've had better results, at least recently, and their business 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:08.760 model has been. 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:09.640 A little bit more. 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.679 Right, well, they have, it's been stronger. They have Cedar Point, 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:19.360 which I grew up going to that in Sandusky. They 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:23.199 have the Beast. It's King's Island in Cincinnati. When I 0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:25.600 was a kid. That was the longest, the fastest, the 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:30.200 tallest wooden roller coaster in the world. Jody, You've got 0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:34.319 I'm guessing, uh, real amusement park experience. 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:34.800 What are the. 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:37.640 Best rides out there? What are the rides that the 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.120 roller coaster freaks are psyched about? 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:42.880 Well, there are quite a few. 0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:46.840 It's funny because I have this conversation a lot with 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:49.360 I'm gonna name job Ira Jersey, who sits in my 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.960 little Hubble in Princeton. His his son is a roller 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:57.640 coaster enthusiast, so we're constantly trading discussions about all the 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.280 different roller coasters out there, so which ones are the best? 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:03.559 I mean, I'm a traditionalist. 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:06.400 I still I grew up well, you know, grew up 0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:10.000 relative once it finally came out the Batman, the original 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:13.280 Batman ride not you know, that was in Great Adventure. 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:16.199 I just always have a soft spot for that, as 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.360 well as for Steel Force, which is at Dorney Park. 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:20.840 And so, I mean those are just rides. 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:22.800 That I always went to just because it was a 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.680 regional sort of feel that said. I mean, you know, 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:27.280 Disney obviously has its. 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:30.320 Own sort of space mountain right. 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:32.520 Well, they have Guardians with the Galaxy Now, which was 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:36.480 certainly an intense ride, definitely different. I mean from an 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:41.160 innovation standpoint, they certainly do a different sort of innovation 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.320 than what you see at the three regional guys. 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:45.440 All right, Jerdi, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate it. 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:50.040 Jody Lorii credit analysts Bloomberg Intelligence breaking down this Cedar 0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:53.400 Fair and six Flags a deal that it's a merger 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:55.120 of vehicles is what they're calling it. But trying to 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:57.360 get a little bit of scale in that theme park business. 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:00.120 You're listening to the tape Cat's are Line program M 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:04.120 Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.520 the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com. 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:07.640 And the Bloomberg Business App. 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:10.520 You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:14.520 flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:17.400 thirty Darkening door. 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:18.440 Here is Doug Adams. 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:21.360 He's a global cohead of ECM, that would be Equity 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:24.920 capital Markets at Citybank, one of my former places of employee. 0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:28.000 I used to run the street with Tyler Dixon. 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:28.960 We were due deals. 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:31.440 One day he called me out and says, hey, I 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:33.640 just took down a bunch of this clear channel stock. 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:35.240 Can you tell me what the radio bis how where 0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:37.800 radio company works? I was like, what I mean, that's 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:39.640 the kind of risk we would take back in the day. 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:42.040 Maybe stupid risk, but anyway, Doug Adams does a I'm 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:43.320 sure a better job than Tyler. 0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:44.040 Doug. 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:45.880 Thanks so much for joining us here, appreciate it. 0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:49.480 Talk to us about the equity capital markets these days. 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:52.400 It's tough market, tough geopolitical issues. 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:54.360 I'm sure the companies don't have a lot of confidence 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:56.880 maybe in their forecasts or kind of just even the 0:15:56.880 --> 0:15:59.640 next couple of quarters. What are the kind of conversations 0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:03.360 you have with clients these days about their capital structure? 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:07.000 Now, I appreciate the opportunity to share our thoughts with you, 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:11.440 and you're right, it's a complicated market right now. We're 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:15.960 dealing with a number of issues globally and there's a 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:18.520 lot of uncertainty, and so clients are trying to manage 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:22.320 their balance sheets, trying to manage their forecasts through that time. 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:26.600 I do think we are expecting there to be some 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:28.600 capital raising come in. There are companies that need to 0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:32.600 raise capital over the coming weeks and months. But you know, 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:35.240 as far as the IPO market, I think what we've 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:37.800 seen in the performance, and we were just talking about it, 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.960 some of the aftermarket performance hasn't been as strong as 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:46.960 folks that expected or anticipated, and so in reality, we're 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:49.120 probably waiting until twenty twenty four until we start to 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:54.160 see a bigger pipeline of newly issued public IPOs. 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:58.120 So does that mean it's going to twenty twenty four 0:16:58.200 --> 0:16:59.760 is going to be a better year than twenty twenty 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:00.840 three for i POS. 0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:03.520 That's certainly what we're hoping at this point. 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:05.160 I mean, it's been a what. 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:08.040 If we fall into a recession, is it still does 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:09.720 it still look like it could be a good year 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:10.600 for i pos. 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:13.240 There are a lot of companies lining up, and a 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:16.040 lot of them have secular growth as opposed to being 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:20.560 exposed to cyclical aspects in their business. The one thing 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:22.440 that we have seen and we're tracking, you know, over 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:26.800 a thousand companies privately private companies right now, and you know, 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:29.840 there's a lot of really interesting, really exciting companies. The 0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:31.640 real question is when is the right time for them 0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:33.320 to go public. When are they going to get the 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:37.119 reception both at the IPO but importantly are they going 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:40.040 to see the aftermarket performance? And that's been the biggest 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:42.320 struggle of the recent vintage. 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:44.440 You know, I've some of the deals that came public 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:49.760 Doug after the Labor Day had what they called marquee investors. 0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:52.080 I'm not sure what the term is. I never had 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:53.280 them in my deals. 0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:56.359 I just whatever that top application was. I gave Fiddel 0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:58.840 like twice that amount and I'm done. What are these 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.920 marquey investors? How does that come into it is that important. 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:04.240 Yeah, we refer to them today as kind of corner 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:07.919 service as investors. And you know, part of it is 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:11.000 in a market that's reopening like we're going through. Part 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:12.760 of it is how do I de risk de risk 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:16.680 a transaction? And so those investors act in two things. 0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:19.240 One is they take some of the potential supply and 0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:21.560 the second thing that they do is provide a validation 0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:25.280 for investors and give them confidence other a broader group 0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:27.680 of investors that people have done more work, they've met 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:30.919 the company privately early on, and they're willing to go 0:18:30.960 --> 0:18:33.240 on the cover of perspectives, and so that provides greater 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:34.880 validation in the market. 0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:38.920 So what's the you know, where are we in terms 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:41.320 of the private equity business and the private credit business 0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:45.040 Because it seems like companies can stay private a lot longer. 0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:46.560 There's so many sources of capital for them. 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.439 They don't need maybe to go public as much as 0:18:49.440 --> 0:18:50.560 maybe they did prior. 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:52.679 Where are we in that continuum these days? 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:55.719