1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news. 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 6 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 7 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: Daniel de martinoz Booth Joints and she's the CEO in 8 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: chief Strategistic QI Research. Danielle The market likes with your 9 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: fed Chairman j Powell had to say, shoulday, what's your takeaway? 10 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 3: Well, he didn't say much, Okay, I mean at the 11 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 3: beginning he. 12 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 4: Kind of read a lot of his answers. 13 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 3: I'm like, dude, you're still reading your your statements over 14 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 3: quit reading already. 15 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 2: I thought that was weird. I honestly, I listened. I 16 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 2: was on Comfort Radio, and I thought it was awkward. 17 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 2: Why isn't this guy like taking a stand one way 18 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:50,839 Speaker 2: or the other one? Why even bother having the if 19 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 2: you're not going to. 20 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 3: Say at the dot plot, oh it's meaningless. You know, 21 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 3: we've got all these employment reports and CPI reports before 22 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 3: we get to December twelfth and thirteen, So disregard that. 23 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 4: I mean, it was it was I'm like, dude, do 24 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 4: you know you're talking out loud? 25 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 3: You're like on TV TV, right, yeah, I mean this, dude, 26 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 3: And I think what was disappointing was that so many 27 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 3: of the reporters asked the same regurgitated question we reworded 28 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 3: over and over and abotton. I can somebody please take 29 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 3: off the gag order and let somebody ask him about 30 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 3: the balance sheet already? 31 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 5: All right, tell us about the balance sheet. What would 32 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 5: you like about the balance sheet? 33 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, gosh, you've seen other deposits, liabilities. My mentor, 34 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 3: doctor Lacey Hunt, you always I follow them every single week. 35 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 3: We're about to break underneath fifteen trillion. 36 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 4: When the data hit tomorrow afternoon. 37 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,639 Speaker 2: Wait, what do you say about Lacy Hunt from Hooisington, Right. 38 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, he's my mentor. 39 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 2: Oh so he's taught me how. 40 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 3: I mean, every single week the Fed's data comes out 41 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 3: and it shows you weekly liquidity on bank balance sheets, 42 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 3: and you've gone from just about seventeen trillion to next 43 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 3: week tomorrow afternoon, you're going to break fifteen trillion. You've 44 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 3: had two trillion dollars of liquidity sucked out of the 45 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 3: system because there's like a one point five multiple on 46 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 3: every dollar of quantity of tightening shows up as one 47 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 3: point five dollars of liquidity pulling being pulled out of 48 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 3: the system, which is why your bcy go functions on fire. 49 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 2: Okay, you've lost me and Paul already. I'm gonna say 50 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 2: you see why I go. 51 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 3: That's your bankruptcy function. Look, it's companies rely on liquidity, 52 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 3: and right now we're seeing banks continue to tighten lending standards. 53 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 3: I mean, I'll be up and ready on Monday morning 54 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 3: for the Senior Loan Officer survey, but the Dallas Fed 55 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,679 Speaker 3: has a more frequent lending survey, and it's just got 56 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 3: getting tighter and tighter and tighter. Everything we heard from 57 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 3: Capital One ally they're seeing normalization in defaults and credit 58 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 3: card delinquencies and auto default. 59 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 2: Wait, you said normalization doing air quotes. 60 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 3: Normalization air quotes, that means that means it's going above subprime. 61 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:51,799 Speaker 3: So it's not contained to subprimes. I love to quote pernanky, 62 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 3: but it's not contained a subprime. And that's what we're seeing. 63 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 4: We've seen about a twelve and. 64 00:02:56,160 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 3: A half fold increase of prime all loans being downgraded 65 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:06,839 Speaker 3: into subprime territory based on where they're trading right now 66 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 3: on bank balance sheets. We've never seen anything like this, 67 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:11,920 Speaker 3: and it's because when you put the rent on hold, 68 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 3: the auto payment on hold, when you paid people twenty 69 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 3: five hundred dollars extra a month, when you put the 70 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 3: mortgages on, everything went on hold. 71 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 4: So we saw and Moody's has done some good work 72 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 4: on this. 73 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 3: We saw insane levels of Fico's score inflation during the 74 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 3: pandemic and now it's all coming back to bite because 75 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 3: weges just aren't there and layoffs. You've got continuing jobless 76 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 3: claims up six weeks in a row north of one 77 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 3: point eight. They're just on top of where they were 78 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 3: in twenty sixteen. 79 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: So is your biggest concern that the consumer is not 80 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 1: nearly as strong as maybe we think it is. 81 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 3: Oh, I think the consumers telling you they're not as strong. 82 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 3: I mean, if you looked inside of the final University 83 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 3: of Michigan consumer sentiment print at the medium tersile and 84 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 3: top tersile of earners, they're like, job cuts are coming, 85 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 3: and it's the lowest tersile that doesn't see it. Coming, 86 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 3: but we're seeing it come out in the data week 87 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 3: after week after week. I was I was talking to 88 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:08,119 Speaker 3: Daily Jobcuts dot Com, the founder, and he's like, November 89 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 3: seasonally a quiet time. People don't fire people into Thanksgiving 90 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 3: and in the holidays, and he's like, it's out. 91 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 4: They've come out of the gate. He seemed to twenty 92 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 4: five companies close in two days. 93 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 2: This is the Austrian hangover coming after all of that 94 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 2: insane stimulus stimulus, it's still going on. Remember that Canes 95 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 2: versus High k Rap video. Look, I mean crisis you've got. 96 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 3: You've got some people are going to be paying their 97 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 3: mortgage for the first time in December. That's how long 98 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 3: FHA Forbearance has been going since March of twenty two. 99 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 2: All Right, I got a listener question here writing in, 100 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 2: did Danielle listen to the Drunken Miller interview with Paul 101 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 2: Tudor Jones? Stan thinks rates are going higher because of 102 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 2: an out of control debt profile of the US. Do 103 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 2: you agree? 104 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 4: I don't, No, I don't. 105 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 3: I mean, we've been spending like drunken sailors since Reagan 106 00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 3: was in office. It's just I think Wall Street wants 107 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 3: a narrative right now. 108 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 2: But you know, Reagan boosted spending on the military. We 109 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 2: were talking yesterday to Paul's mentor, Cam Harvey from Duke, 110 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 2: and he pointed out that next year we're gonna have 111 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,799 Speaker 2: interest payment costs of nine hundred billion dollars. We're gonna 112 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 2: pay more to service our debt than we do to 113 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 2: fund the military. 114 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 5: Yep. 115 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 3: Actually we passed that up in the at the end 116 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 3: of the fiscal year, about six hundred and eighty five 117 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,600 Speaker 3: billion for military, eight hundred and eight billion fiscal year 118 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 3: ended August thirty one interest payments. So we've already we've 119 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 3: already rounded that. And I the shame about the fiscal 120 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 3: spending right now is it's. 121 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 4: Not doing much. 122 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 3: There's it's not creating anything. Like there's no Hoover Dam, 123 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 3: there's no Holland Tunnel. 124 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 2: There's so little way. 125 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,680 Speaker 1: They're working like crazy out there, the people out in Jersey, right, 126 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: John Tucker, they were building that Oh. 127 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 6: Yeah, number those gigantic cranes by the Gateway project. 128 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:54,159 Speaker 4: Question, I stand correct, Hey we're building a tunnel. 129 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, it'll be ready. 130 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 4: I'm I'm always on the bridges going to LaGuardia. 131 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:03,720 Speaker 5: Sorry, exactly, So is recession in your scenario? In your I. 132 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 4: Think I think recession starts the current quarter. 133 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 5: Okay, this quarter Q four. 134 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 3: As of this morning's jobless claims data, the only state 135 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 3: holdout right now that does not have rising continuing jobless 136 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 3: claims year over here is Kentucky. 137 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 4: Well, I mean Florida, but that's that's a base effect 138 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 4: from Hurricane Ian. So that's gonna go away here. But 139 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 4: that's it. 140 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 3: I mean September twenty twenty two, there were zero states 141 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 3: with rising continuing jobless claims. 142 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 4: Now we got fifty. 143 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 5: Okay, so you have a recession in your outlook? 144 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 2: How deep? 145 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 5: How long? 146 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 3: I think it's gonna last longer than we think because 147 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:41,040 Speaker 3: we've pulled so much demand forward. We're seeing one furniture 148 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 3: company after another go out of business that had been 149 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 3: in business for one hundred years because we pulled so 150 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 3: much demand forward with all that stimulus money. 151 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 2: All Right, that's the hangover, dude. 152 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 4: It is a hangover, yes, but it's not as funny 153 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 4: as the movie. 154 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 2: So so should the Fed? 155 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:57,280 Speaker 5: What should the Fed do here? 156 00:06:57,680 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 3: I think I think the Fed's on hold, I really do. 157 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 3: But again, it's about the balance sheet. Nobody's talking about Voldemort. 158 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 4: I'm saying it out loud. It's about the balance sheet, people, 159 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 4: It's real. 160 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 2: The worry. The worry is that the Fed went too 161 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 2: far right because, like Cam said, if you take out 162 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 2: whatever they call it, rent equivalent, inflation is below two percent. 163 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 2: And our buddy j Hatfield from Infrastructure Capital a smart one. 164 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 2: He's got his CPI dash R where they replace the 165 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 2: housing component with ky Schiller and that's one point three 166 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 2: percent year over year compared to the four point Everything's 167 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 2: great in Dallas, right. 168 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 3: Well, no, Actually, war notices in the state of Textas 169 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 3: have gone through the roof. That's what's hard to believe. 170 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 3: And it's no longer like super cheap to live there. 171 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 3: So I mean, Austin's a cesspool of when it comes, 172 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 3: it's it's residential real estate ground zero. 173 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 2: It's a mess again. 174 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 3: And I'm a longhorn, and I mean, I love, I 175 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 3: love Austin, but they overbuilt. 176 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 5: They overbuilt, and there's and they don't have any infrastructure for. 177 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 2: The true but they have limescooters. That's all I care about. 178 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: Burn Martino, CEO and chief strategist Research. 179 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 7: You're listening to the Team Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg 180 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot com, 181 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 7: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen 182 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 7: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 183 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: A little bit of a M and a trade in 184 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:21,679 Speaker 1: the theme park business, Cedar Fair, six Flags, they're getting 185 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: together all Stock merger. 186 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 5: Let's break down a little bit. 187 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: We can do that with Jody Laura. 188 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: She covers the entertainment companies for Bloomberg Intelligence from the 189 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: credit side. So, Jody, thanks so much for joining us here. Boy, 190 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 1: I'm looking at the balance sheets of these two companies. 191 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:36,959 Speaker 5: They're almost the. 192 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: Exact same two and a half billion dollars of debt, 193 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 1: about five hundred million of ibadas, so they're both levered 194 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 1: pretty highly around five times leverage. Here from your perspective, 195 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 1: what's the rational for putting these two companies together? 196 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 8: Fuir So, Paul, I mean, I think I think that's 197 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 8: a great question. Is that really at the end of 198 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 8: the day, why are these companies joining? And I think 199 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:02,239 Speaker 8: it really comes down to the fact that the tailwinds 200 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 8: that they experienced during the pandemic have sort of petered off, 201 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 8: and now they're saying what's next for these companies, they've 202 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 8: experienced tremendous weather related issues this year. 203 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 9: That have sort of marred their opportunity and. 204 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:21,599 Speaker 8: Benefiting from people spending on leisure. 205 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 2: Too hot, Yeah. 206 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 8: Well, so subplace was too hot, others it was too rainy. 207 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 8: It was just you know, a mix of storms and 208 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 8: events that have happened. I mean, you look in the 209 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 8: southern California area and it was too hot and then 210 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 8: there were floods, and then it was rainy, and it's 211 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 8: just I mean, each of their calls, other than this 212 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,839 Speaker 8: one today, which obviously was just focused on the m 213 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 8: and a transaction, but the past two quarters, that was 214 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 8: sort of the explanation behind it was we didn't do 215 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 8: well or as well as expected, and we didn't get 216 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 8: as much season pass buyers because of the effects of weather. 217 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 8: And I don't I know if that's necessarily going to 218 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 8: go away, but I think what they're hoping is the 219 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 8: expansion of their footprint will sort of diversify them enough 220 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 8: to make it so that weather isn't as much of 221 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 8: an issue. I don't know if that's necessarily what I'd 222 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 8: hang my hat on, but that's certainly their argument. 223 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 1: Got Disney. You look at Disney there love their theme 224 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: park business. Comcast loves its universal theme park business. They're 225 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: both of those companies are increasing dramatically. They're capital spending 226 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 1: in those businesses. Is that just a benefit of scale 227 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: and that six Flags and Sedar don't enjoy that same 228 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 1: kind of scale, so this is one way to get there? 229 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 9: Well, I would say. 230 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 8: That they definitely have a lot of scale, particularly six Flags. 231 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 9: Maybe even some would argue too much scale. It's a 232 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 9: different business model. 233 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:55,559 Speaker 8: When you're dealing with regional versus very focused theme parks. Right, 234 00:10:55,800 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 8: So Disney, like SeaWorld, benefits from having Florida, having Southern California, 235 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 8: and so that of course helps them from a cash 236 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 8: flow perspective, more consistency because they don't have to shut 237 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 8: down for part of the year. 238 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 9: For six Flags and Cedar Fair, it's. 239 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,439 Speaker 8: A little bit more regional. The type of customer is 240 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 8: a little bit different. It's not as much destination. They're 241 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 8: hoping to shift that a little bit and you're certainly 242 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 8: seeing that. You know, Cedar Fair does have hotels at 243 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 8: some of their properties, and so I think that the 244 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 8: thought process is is that once you're a bit larger, 245 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 8: you can more actively have a branding and maybe more 246 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 8: of a presence everywhere you go. So if you're a 247 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 8: card carrier of a six Flags Great Adventure, you can 248 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:40,199 Speaker 8: go to any six Flags. Perhaps maybe maybe that's the play, 249 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 8: is that you know a customer can participate in any area. 250 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 2: Well, can I ask about the dreaded phrase merger of equals? 251 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 5: I think they're. 252 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 2: Saying this themselves, like they think it's a good idea 253 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 2: to spin that. Daimler Chrysler said the same thing, and 254 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 2: it was anything but I mean, what a load of bs? 255 00:11:58,679 --> 00:11:58,719 Speaker 10: What? 256 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 2: What's who's buying? Who's buying whom? 257 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 10: Here? Right? 258 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 9: So they structured the deal interestingly, So Cedar Fair is. 259 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 8: An LP or an MLP specifically, so a limited partnership 260 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:12,559 Speaker 8: right now, so they have unit holders. 261 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 9: Six Flags is your standard CE corporation. 262 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 8: And the way that they structured it is that Cedar 263 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 8: Fair will get fifty one point two percent of the 264 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 8: new company shares outstanding. And the reason why they did 265 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 8: that is I think it sort of helps them to 266 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 8: not trigger the change of control provision for bondholders, meaning 267 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 8: bond holders can't then put back the bonds at one 268 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 8: oh one percent of par and so that of course 269 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 8: frees up some cash for the two companies. It makes 270 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 8: it a really stock for stock transaction, except for the 271 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:46,319 Speaker 8: dividends that Six Flags shareholders get with the closure of 272 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 8: the deal. And so I think it's an interesting structure. 273 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 8: It makes it a little bit more beneficial for bondholders 274 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 8: in some sense, particularly the Six Flags bondholders. We saw 275 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 8: the bond's rally today and that's a function of the 276 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 8: fact that you know, Cedar Fair does to some extent, 277 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 8: they've had better results, at least recently, and their business 278 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 8: model has been. 279 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 9: A little bit more. 280 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,679 Speaker 2: Right, well, they have, it's been stronger. They have Cedar Point, 281 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 2: which I grew up going to that in Sandusky. They 282 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 2: have the Beast. It's King's Island in Cincinnati. When I 283 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 2: was a kid. That was the longest, the fastest, the 284 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 2: tallest wooden roller coaster in the world. Jody, You've got 285 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:34,319 Speaker 2: I'm guessing, uh, real amusement park experience. 286 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 5: What are the. 287 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 2: Best rides out there? What are the rides that the 288 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 2: roller coaster freaks are psyched about? 289 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 9: Well, there are quite a few. 290 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 8: It's funny because I have this conversation a lot with 291 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 8: I'm gonna name job Ira Jersey, who sits in my 292 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 8: little Hubble in Princeton. His his son is a roller 293 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 8: coaster enthusiast, so we're constantly trading discussions about all the 294 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 8: different roller coasters out there, so which ones are the best? 295 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:03,559 Speaker 9: I mean, I'm a traditionalist. 296 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 8: I still I grew up well, you know, grew up 297 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 8: relative once it finally came out the Batman, the original 298 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 8: Batman ride not you know, that was in Great Adventure. 299 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,199 Speaker 8: I just always have a soft spot for that, as 300 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 8: well as for Steel Force, which is at Dorney Park. 301 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 9: And so, I mean those are just rides. 302 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 8: That I always went to just because it was a 303 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 8: regional sort of feel that said. I mean, you know, 304 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 8: Disney obviously has its. 305 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 2: Own sort of space mountain right. 306 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 8: Well, they have Guardians with the Galaxy Now, which was 307 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 8: certainly an intense ride, definitely different. I mean from an 308 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 8: innovation standpoint, they certainly do a different sort of innovation 309 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 8: than what you see at the three regional guys. 310 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 5: All right, Jerdi, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate it. 311 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: Jody Lorii credit analysts Bloomberg Intelligence breaking down this Cedar 312 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 1: Fair and six Flags a deal that it's a merger 313 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: of vehicles is what they're calling it. But trying to 314 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 1: get a little bit of scale in that theme park business. 315 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape Cat's are Line program M 316 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 7: Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 317 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 7: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com. 318 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 10: And the Bloomberg Business App. 319 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 320 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 7: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven 321 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 7: thirty Darkening door. 322 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 5: Here is Doug Adams. 323 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: He's a global cohead of ECM, that would be Equity 324 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: capital Markets at Citybank, one of my former places of employee. 325 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: I used to run the street with Tyler Dixon. 326 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 5: We were due deals. 327 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 1: One day he called me out and says, hey, I 328 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 1: just took down a bunch of this clear channel stock. 329 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: Can you tell me what the radio bis how where 330 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 1: radio company works? I was like, what I mean, that's 331 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 1: the kind of risk we would take back in the day. 332 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 1: Maybe stupid risk, but anyway, Doug Adams does a I'm 333 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: sure a better job than Tyler. 334 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 2: Doug. 335 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 5: Thanks so much for joining us here, appreciate it. 336 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: Talk to us about the equity capital markets these days. 337 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 5: It's tough market, tough geopolitical issues. 338 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 1: I'm sure the companies don't have a lot of confidence 339 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: maybe in their forecasts or kind of just even the 340 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 1: next couple of quarters. What are the kind of conversations 341 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: you have with clients these days about their capital structure? 342 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 11: Now, I appreciate the opportunity to share our thoughts with you, 343 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 11: and you're right, it's a complicated market right now. We're 344 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 11: dealing with a number of issues globally and there's a 345 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 11: lot of uncertainty, and so clients are trying to manage 346 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 11: their balance sheets, trying to manage their forecasts through that time. 347 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 11: I do think we are expecting there to be some 348 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 11: capital raising come in. There are companies that need to 349 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 11: raise capital over the coming weeks and months. But you know, 350 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 11: as far as the IPO market, I think what we've 351 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 11: seen in the performance, and we were just talking about it, 352 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 11: some of the aftermarket performance hasn't been as strong as 353 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 11: folks that expected or anticipated, and so in reality, we're 354 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 11: probably waiting until twenty twenty four until we start to 355 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 11: see a bigger pipeline of newly issued public IPOs. 356 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 2: So does that mean it's going to twenty twenty four 357 00:16:58,200 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 2: is going to be a better year than twenty twenty 358 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 2: three for i POS. 359 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 11: That's certainly what we're hoping at this point. 360 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 10: I mean, it's been a what. 361 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 2: If we fall into a recession, is it still does 362 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 2: it still look like it could be a good year 363 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 2: for i pos. 364 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 11: There are a lot of companies lining up, and a 365 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 11: lot of them have secular growth as opposed to being 366 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 11: exposed to cyclical aspects in their business. The one thing 367 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:22,440 Speaker 11: that we have seen and we're tracking, you know, over 368 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 11: a thousand companies privately private companies right now, and you know, 369 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 11: there's a lot of really interesting, really exciting companies. The 370 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 11: real question is when is the right time for them 371 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 11: to go public. When are they going to get the 372 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:37,119 Speaker 11: reception both at the IPO but importantly are they going 373 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 11: to see the aftermarket performance? And that's been the biggest 374 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 11: struggle of the recent vintage. 375 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 1: You know, I've some of the deals that came public 376 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: Doug after the Labor Day had what they called marquee investors. 377 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 5: I'm not sure what the term is. I never had 378 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 5: them in my deals. 379 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,359 Speaker 1: I just whatever that top application was. I gave Fiddel 380 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 1: like twice that amount and I'm done. What are these 381 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 1: marquey investors? How does that come into it is that important. 382 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 11: Yeah, we refer to them today as kind of corner 383 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:07,919 Speaker 11: service as investors. And you know, part of it is 384 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 11: in a market that's reopening like we're going through. Part 385 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 11: of it is how do I de risk de risk 386 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:16,680 Speaker 11: a transaction? And so those investors act in two things. 387 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 11: One is they take some of the potential supply and 388 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 11: the second thing that they do is provide a validation 389 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 11: for investors and give them confidence other a broader group 390 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 11: of investors that people have done more work, they've met 391 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,919 Speaker 11: the company privately early on, and they're willing to go 392 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 11: on the cover of perspectives, and so that provides greater 393 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:34,880 Speaker 11: validation in the market. 394 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,920 Speaker 1: So what's the you know, where are we in terms 395 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: of the private equity business and the private credit business 396 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 1: Because it seems like companies can stay private a lot longer. 397 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 5: There's so many sources of capital for them. 398 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 1: They don't need maybe to go public as much as 399 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 1: maybe they did prior. 400 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:52,679 Speaker 5: Where are we in that continuum these days? 401 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,719 Speaker 11: And so at say, we run our public and private 402 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:59,919 Speaker 11: capital raising all through our group in equity capital market, 403 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 11: and we are seeing that convergence, right, And so investors 404 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,959 Speaker 11: or companies are thinking about what do I raise capital? 405 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 11: What are the alternatives in the private market? What are 406 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 11: the alternatives in the public market? And how do I 407 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 11: think about that? And you're right, you know, they are 408 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 11: more alternatives today in the private market, But that's not 409 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 11: a perfect market today either, as we've seen. I think 410 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,160 Speaker 11: that the real question for companies is is their strategic 411 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:23,440 Speaker 11: value in being public? 412 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 10: And what's the value? 413 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 11: It helps in retention of employees, it helps that it's 414 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 11: an acquisition currency, and for many companies it helps from event, 415 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,199 Speaker 11: branding event for them. And so there are different reasons 416 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 11: to go public than just raising the capital. 417 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 2: At the time of the IPO, I mean, how much 418 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,439 Speaker 2: have you when you're looking at your employees right in 419 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 2: your group, have you seen a shift from the amount 420 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 2: of women and men you hire to take companies public 421 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:49,879 Speaker 2: and the amount of women and men you hire to 422 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 2: give them money on the private side. I mean, you've 423 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 2: been at city since like Nirvana, right, so yeah, the band. 424 00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 2: You've been at a city since the early nineties, right. 425 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 10: Have. 426 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 11: You know in terms of where people are spending their time. 427 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,360 Speaker 11: You know, we've asked our team to really focus on 428 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 11: understanding what companies needs are and then thinking about the 429 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 11: public market solutions as well as private market solution, and 430 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:15,360 Speaker 11: so the teams are versatile to be able to talk 431 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 11: to clients about the different alternatives that exist. And that's 432 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 11: one of the things that we've been really focused on 433 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 11: is understanding the client and coming up with solutions at 434 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 11: best at their needs. 435 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,360 Speaker 1: You know, in the private I know source of IPOs 436 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 1: across the street of private private financed private equity finance companies, 437 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 1: and you always are talking to your private equity clients 438 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: about kind of what their needs are. There haven't been 439 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: a lot of IPO activity for several years now. I 440 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: would think the backlog from the big private equity companies 441 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 1: like guys, you give me a five minute window. I 442 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: got to get some stuff out the door because I 443 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 1: need some monetizations, I need to mark these things. I 444 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,119 Speaker 1: need some gains to show my LPs. Where is the 445 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,880 Speaker 1: backlog you know out there on the street these days. 446 00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 11: I think the there's no question private equity firm are 447 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,679 Speaker 11: evaluating their portfolio companies and trying to decide which are 448 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 11: the right ones to exit in the public market and 449 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 11: which are the right companies to exit in the private market, 450 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 11: and they do that all the time. I think with 451 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 11: a better functioning leverage finance market. One of the things 452 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 11: that has happened is that the notion of a dual 453 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 11: track process has become back in viable alternatives for companies 454 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 11: versus just having one alternative. Having multiple alternatives always help 455 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 11: those sponsors. But you're right, there are under a lot 456 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 11: of pressure to return capital to their LPs as they 457 00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 11: look to raise the. 458 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,360 Speaker 1: Next exactly, So what what's it used to be back 459 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 1: in the day, My day, we could take a company 460 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 1: public with just a thought, you know, an idea. Now 461 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,919 Speaker 1: you have to have revenue, you have to have profits, 462 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: you have to have defendable franchises. It seems tougher and tougher. 463 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 1: Where are you where's the market now? In terms of 464 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,240 Speaker 1: I wanted to bring my company public? 465 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 5: What would you tell me? 466 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,439 Speaker 11: I'd have to have we focus on company that are 467 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 11: either profitable or a clear path to profitability in the 468 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 11: near term. And that's what investors want. When we're in 469 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 11: a market that's reopening, you have to really open the 470 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 11: market with the highest quality companies. Rebuild the confidence. That's 471 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 11: been challenge over the last twenty four months. You know, 472 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 11: one of the things going back to twenty twenty one. 473 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 11: You know, we prior to twenty twenty one or twenty 474 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,919 Speaker 11: twenty there was an argument that companies are staying private 475 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 11: too long, and in twenty twenty one everyone said companies 476 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 11: are going public too early. And so finding that right balance, 477 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,080 Speaker 11: especially in a market that's recovering, it's not a straight line. 478 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 11: And so starting with the strongest companies, rebuilding that confidence 479 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 11: in the public markets, and then giving options to companies 480 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,639 Speaker 11: in terms of you know, when and how and how 481 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 11: large to raise capital becomes important. 482 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,400 Speaker 5: Are there any sectors out there that you're seeing more 483 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,359 Speaker 5: or less demand from from your clients? 484 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 2: Hey, we want. 485 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 1: More energy, or we want more tech, or you know 486 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:55,359 Speaker 1: what are you hearing from your clients? 487 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:59,400 Speaker 11: The clients are focused on growth and quality of company. 488 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,119 Speaker 11: So don't think it's necessarily those. 489 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 2: Two things didn't used to be the same thing, right, 490 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 2: growth and quality. And when you say quality you mean 491 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 2: like free cash flow, right, or. 492 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 11: We're profitability or path to profitability. People that have built 493 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 11: a moat around their businesses and are differentiated. There's a 494 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 11: lot of companies working on really interesting as I mentioned earlier, 495 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:24,400 Speaker 11: you know, strategies and disrupting traditional industries. But the real 496 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,560 Speaker 11: question is have they proven that they can actually operate 497 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:30,919 Speaker 11: as a business as opposed to a plan in those 498 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 11: in those areas. But we're seeing companies in certainly in 499 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,159 Speaker 11: the software space and technology. More broadly, we're seeing companies 500 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 11: in the consumer space. Healthcare has been one of the 501 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 11: most active spaces in the capital markets, but we're also 502 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:48,160 Speaker 11: seeing companies in financial services, real estate and others trying 503 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 11: to figure out when will be the right time to 504 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 11: access the public market. 505 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 1: Are hedge funds where where the hedge funds in terms 506 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 1: of buyers of IPOs are just new issues? How important 507 00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 1: are they to you know, an underwriutter like city. 508 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 11: Look all the investors, the active equity investors are important, 509 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 11: So long only accounts and mutual funds, hedge funds all 510 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 11: make up kind of the complexion of the investor base. 511 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 11: And one of the things is we look at the 512 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 11: IPOs that came post Labor Day. It wasn't a demand issue, 513 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 11: right Those transactions were multiple times over subscribed. 514 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 10: You know. 515 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 11: The challenge has been the aftermarket performance, and part of 516 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 11: that is goes to whether you're a hedge fund or 517 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 11: a long only investor, you know, the average or the 518 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 11: typical active equity investor are trilling their indexes because the 519 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 11: indexes have been dominated by a small number of stocks, 520 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,640 Speaker 11: and so if the stock isn't performing well, they can't 521 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,359 Speaker 11: chase that in the aftermarket. They have to cut their 522 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 11: losses rather than suffer. 523 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 1: Because I kept wondering, because I said, back in my day, 524 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 1: I know where you're buying here, here, here, how much 525 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 1: you're buying. So if the stock does fall, I know 526 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 1: you're coming in to buy more. But it seems like 527 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: we didn't see that this. 528 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 11: Yeah, I think there's some technical factors and some fundamental factors. 529 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 11: I think the technical factors is the underperformance by the 530 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 11: active equity investment in investor relative to their benchmark. And 531 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,200 Speaker 11: the fundamental challenge has been you know that tenure has 532 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,920 Speaker 11: moved pretty significantly since labor Day, so the cost of 533 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,400 Speaker 11: capital for these companies has gone up significantly. 534 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 5: All right, Doug, great stuff. 535 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:12,919 Speaker 1: Appreciate you taking a few minutes your time to come 536 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:14,680 Speaker 1: across the street and talk to us. Doug Adams, he's 537 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: co head Global cohead of ECM four City. 538 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape CANSUR Live program Bloomberg Markets 539 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 7: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune 540 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 7: in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the. 541 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 10: Bloomberg Business App. 542 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,320 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 543 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:36,400 Speaker 7: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 544 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 1: There's a thing met here in the healthcare business called 545 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: Obesity Week. It used to be a quiet annual meeting 546 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 1: of weight loss specialists and a few farmer reps. But 547 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 1: over four days in Dallas this month, it became clear 548 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 1: that the new obesity drugs are changing that along with 549 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:52,880 Speaker 1: everything else in their path. 550 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 5: Lisa Jarvis joins us to break it down. 551 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 1: Lisa is a calumnist with Bloomberg Opinion covering biotech, healthcare, 552 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 1: and the pharmaceutical biz. Lisa, can you put into perspective 553 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:06,280 Speaker 1: what these GLP one drugs are? How impactful are they? 554 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: Where are we going with this stuff? Because it came 555 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: out of nowhere and that's all anybody can talk about 556 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 1: these days. 557 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 12: Right, Thanks for having me. Well, yeah, they're taking the 558 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:19,159 Speaker 12: world by storm, that's for sure. They've been used. This 559 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 12: class of drugs has been used for a long time 560 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 12: for diabetes, and you know a side effect was weight loss, 561 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,879 Speaker 12: and so they decided to amp that up and you know, 562 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,919 Speaker 12: explore the drugs for use for use, just for weight loss, 563 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:35,120 Speaker 12: and the difference between what they can do and kind 564 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 12: of all the older diet pills that existed is best. 565 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,679 Speaker 12: You know, in the past. You know, basically what you 566 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 12: could expect was at the most about five percent weight 567 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 12: loss with some of these older diet pills, and it 568 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:51,840 Speaker 12: was often not sustainable. With Wegovi, which is Nova nerdist 569 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 12: drug and with Minjaro, which is Lily's drugs still not 570 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 12: yet approved for weight loss, but expected to be by 571 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 12: the end of this year. You know, you're looking at 572 00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 12: somewhere between fifteen even up to twenty five percent some 573 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,479 Speaker 12: of the newer drugs that are in the pipeline, you know, 574 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 12: for segments of the population up to thirty percent of 575 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 12: their body weight. So it's pretty dramatic and needless to say, 576 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 12: and it's really taken the world by storm. 577 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,880 Speaker 2: I just want to lose like ten to fifteen percent 578 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:24,680 Speaker 2: of my body weight. But apparently, sorry, Novo Nordisk has 579 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,920 Speaker 2: put the starter doses on hold because they just can't 580 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,679 Speaker 2: make enough. And we asked the CEO today Lars for 581 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 2: Regard Jurgensen, you know, what are you going to do 582 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 2: about the supply. He's so cagy about it. He's like, 583 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,919 Speaker 2: we have a plan, but I can't like tell you 584 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 2: about it, which is why if you're like boosting capacity 585 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 2: at factories, or if you're making it in a different country, 586 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 2: or like, why would you not be able to tell 587 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 2: us about it. I don't get that. 588 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean it's been an ongoing to struggle with 589 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 12: all of these drugs, the fact that they can't keep 590 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,919 Speaker 12: up with demand. I think the issue is less than 591 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 12: actual ingredient and then drug itself and more of the 592 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:06,119 Speaker 12: vials that they put it into. And so they've been 593 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 12: really you're right cage about it and been really careful 594 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,960 Speaker 12: about allowing new people out of the drugs. The problem is, 595 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 12: you know, there's this whole gray market of compounding, compounded 596 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,200 Speaker 12: pharmacies that are offering the drugs. So people are starting 597 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 12: on it, buying it from kind of telehealth places somewhat sketchy, 598 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,720 Speaker 12: I would say. And yeah, I. 599 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:30,440 Speaker 2: Heard a commercial yesterday on Bloomberg Radio on Serious XM 600 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 2: Channel one nineteen, and it was for what sounded like 601 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 2: probably a pretty sketchy place saying like, hey, call us up, 602 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 2: we can charge this to your insurance trust US, and 603 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 2: I was thinking, cool, because it's one thousand dollars a month, right, 604 00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:45,920 Speaker 2: can they charge at LISA to my insurance or do 605 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 2: I have to pay myself. 606 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 12: Well, that's the thing with these drugs right now. Very 607 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 12: few people are able to get them covered by insurance, 608 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 12: you know, because insurers are worried about how much it's 609 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 12: going to cost in the long term. If everybody goes 610 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,480 Speaker 12: on them, and the idea is that you take them 611 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 12: for life, and you know, that could be a significant 612 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 12: burn into most plans given the number of people in 613 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 12: the US who are of a body weight where they 614 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,960 Speaker 12: would qualify for these drugs. When it comes to the telehealth, 615 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 12: they're often charging less, probably because they're getting it from 616 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 12: a different source and you're maybe taking it not in 617 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,920 Speaker 12: the pen form, and maybe you're having to inject the 618 00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 12: drug itself. It wouldn't be something I would recommend. I've 619 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,080 Speaker 12: written another column about that that I think most doctors 620 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 12: would say, don't do that, just hold off and try 621 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,360 Speaker 12: to try to get it from you know, the real 622 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 12: deal this is. 623 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 2: You know, Lars was telling us this morning too, because 624 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 2: I said, dude, I don't want like, I don't care 625 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,560 Speaker 2: that much about stomach problems. I definitely don't want suicidal thoughts, 626 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 2: which some reports have said, you know, that's a possibility potential. 627 00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,480 Speaker 2: And then I'm terrified of needles, and he said, you 628 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 2: know a lot of people like to go to the 629 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,360 Speaker 2: doctor once a week and get a shot. Is that 630 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 2: possibly true? Like I can't even get my couch to 631 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,800 Speaker 2: go to the gym. I'm definitely not going to find 632 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 2: time to go to the doctor. 633 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 12: You know, I think so well, you don't have to 634 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 12: go to the doctor. You do it at home yourself, 635 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 12: just like you do with if you had diabetes. Because 636 00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 12: the people who are taking ozen Pick instead of we 637 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 12: go be ozen Pick is the same drug, lower dose 638 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 12: for diet approof for diabetes. But there's good news for 639 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 12: you in the sense that there are pills that are 640 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 12: in the works that you know, could replace the need 641 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:28,959 Speaker 12: for needles. The weight loss might not be quite as dramatic, 642 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 12: we don't know yet, but it could still be substantial. 643 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:34,480 Speaker 12: And some of those pills you might not even need 644 00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 12: to take as often as as the injection. So there's 645 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,240 Speaker 12: a lot of different things that are in development. Because 646 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 12: obviously at a market that people are pegging at like 647 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 12: one hundred billion dollars by twenty thirty. Everybody wants to. 648 00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:47,120 Speaker 10: Get on it. 649 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 1: So, yeah, is there any scenario like I I was 650 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 1: going to ask you a size of the business, but 651 00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 1: that's that's a big size. Is this always going to 652 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 1: be or is this expect it to always be a 653 00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 1: prescription type situation or they're being over at the counter 654 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 1: option at some point. 655 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,480 Speaker 12: I think, I think we're going to stick to a 656 00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:08,080 Speaker 12: prescription for the foreseeable future in the sense that people 657 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 12: are going to want insurance to pay for it, and 658 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 12: oftentimes with over the counter that's that's not something that 659 00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 12: insurance always covers. But you know, especially as we start 660 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 12: to see this drug, more data come out for the 661 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 12: health outcomes. So you know, we're talking about weight loss, 662 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:27,960 Speaker 12: but Novo has offered some data showing that taking this 663 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,479 Speaker 12: drug can reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes 664 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 12: by twenty percent. That's substantial. There's a lot of other 665 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 12: trials running trying to show other health benefits, whether that's 666 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 12: you know, chronic kidney disease, you know NAFH which is 667 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 12: a NASH which is a fatty liver disease, or even addictions. 668 00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 12: So I think probably we're not going to see it 669 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,880 Speaker 12: over the counter, and the market is just so potentially 670 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:52,560 Speaker 12: huge as a prescription drug. 671 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 1: It's kind of odd to think about this to be 672 00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 1: a drug you have to commit to for life. I mean, 673 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,320 Speaker 1: it's one thing if you're doing that for a disease 674 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 1: or something that you. 675 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 2: Have to, but this is more on the other hand, Dude, 676 00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:08,400 Speaker 2: I'm committed to like hogen DAWs and Heinekens for life, right, 677 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 2: And you know, I might even spend less on we 678 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 2: go Vi Euros Epic if I can. You know, I 679 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,200 Speaker 2: don't know, Like I don't know how much it's gonna 680 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:26,600 Speaker 2: limit my cravings to drink alcohol, to eat sugary foods, 681 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,719 Speaker 2: to smoke cigarettes. But apparently it helps Lisa with all 682 00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,240 Speaker 2: those things. 683 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 12: It's so far anecdotally at least, it seems to be 684 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 12: helping with all those and it's now being studied as 685 00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 12: for addiction. So whether that's alcohol, you know, other drugs, 686 00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 12: illicit drugs, or other things. But you know, and you 687 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 12: can think of sugar in that same way. I've talked 688 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 12: to a lot of people who are taking these drugs 689 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 12: and they just most of them say almost instantly, like 690 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 12: within the first twenty four hours, they feel a change 691 00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:58,040 Speaker 12: in the they're kind of brain signals telling them to eat. 692 00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 12: And so I think some of the concern is more 693 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 12: about making sure people are getting enough nutrition, to be 694 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 12: honest with you, because for some people, their diet is 695 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,760 Speaker 12: so depressed that they just aren't they're not craving. They're 696 00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 12: not craving Krispy Creaming anymore. 697 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,200 Speaker 2: That's the the interesting thing is, uh, well a couple things. 698 00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:21,520 Speaker 2: Can this reduce fat only and not reduce muscle mass? 699 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 2: And then also if people are smoking more weed, are 700 00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:26,800 Speaker 2: they gonna need this to counteract the munchies? 701 00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 12: Well, fair enough, although they might not desire the weed, 702 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:33,680 Speaker 12: to be honest with you, if they're taking the drug. 703 00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:35,880 Speaker 12: So that's one thing. It's just hard. Everyone has a 704 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 12: different experience with it. Some people like just lose their 705 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:45,240 Speaker 12: desire for you know, whatever was their vice. So on 706 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 12: that news, Yeah, I mean, you know, I think I 707 00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,400 Speaker 12: think there's a lot to a lot to we still 708 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,239 Speaker 12: just don't know, you know, about how long people are 709 00:33:56,240 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 12: even gonna want to, for example, not enjoy some of 710 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 12: those things in life. I spoke with some doctors or 711 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 12: said they have patients who just want to take a 712 00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 12: break because they want to go out to dinner and 713 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 12: for their birthday and. 714 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:13,319 Speaker 2: To have their cake and eat it too. 715 00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,520 Speaker 12: Or at least pause. But so yeah, so there's sort 716 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 12: of like a lot of discussion about what how is 717 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 12: this sustainable in the long term? You take down the dose, 718 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 12: could you take breaks? You know, how could we think 719 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:24,880 Speaker 12: about what it looks like in the long term so 720 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 12: that you can maintain that weight loss. And like you said, 721 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 12: you know, thinking about the muscle mass too. And I'll 722 00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 12: just note the companies are also looking at ways of 723 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,680 Speaker 12: combining these drugs with drugs that help you sustain your 724 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:37,279 Speaker 12: muscle mass, so it. 725 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,160 Speaker 1: Could be a whole new I'm gonna let I'm gonna 726 00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,000 Speaker 1: let other people take the lead on this. I'm gonna 727 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:42,800 Speaker 1: be a big time follower at least drivers. Thanks so 728 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:43,560 Speaker 1: much for joining us. 729 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,880 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape Can's Are Live program Bloomberg 730 00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 731 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,560 Speaker 7: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 732 00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:53,799 Speaker 10: The Bloomberg Business App. 733 00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,680 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 734 00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:02,560 Speaker 7: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Blue. 735 00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:04,759 Speaker 5: Let's kind of continue that legal thing. 736 00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:08,719 Speaker 1: Our next guest Nouvelle Gonzalo, founder Gonzalo Law Group. She 737 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,840 Speaker 1: joins us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio, 738 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 1: or she get. 739 00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:17,680 Speaker 13: Her JD b B Ohio State University, right, the Ohio 740 00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:22,239 Speaker 13: State University in conjunction with Oxford University in England too. 741 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:23,759 Speaker 4: But yes, I feel like. 742 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:27,000 Speaker 2: Those two are on the same level as they're excellent. 743 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,480 Speaker 2: They're both excellent university exactly. 744 00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:30,920 Speaker 6: One has a better football. 745 00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 1: One has a better football depending upon how you define 746 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,959 Speaker 1: football throat all. Right, let's talk about Meta first, because 747 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 1: they have been sued by California and like, I don't know, 748 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,960 Speaker 1: forty seven other states talk about harmful youth marketing. 749 00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:46,040 Speaker 2: What's going? 750 00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:47,960 Speaker 1: I mean the stock nobody cares in the stock sotocks 751 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,520 Speaker 1: of one hundred fifty five percent. From a legal perspective, 752 00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:51,720 Speaker 1: is there anything there? 753 00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:52,160 Speaker 10: Oh? 754 00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:54,960 Speaker 13: My gracious, this is huge. This is an amazing case 755 00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,680 Speaker 13: because you were looking at over forty three attorney generals 756 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:02,319 Speaker 13: from different states that are this case against Meta. And 757 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:07,840 Speaker 13: we're talking about a platform that owns Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp. 758 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,520 Speaker 13: There's about four billion users worldwide. 759 00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:14,800 Speaker 2: What's that threads Twitter competitor? 760 00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:15,080 Speaker 10: Right? 761 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,000 Speaker 13: Yes, yes, so you know, this is huge and we 762 00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 13: have not seen this type of bipartisan support with forty 763 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,520 Speaker 13: three you know, states going against them. But essentially, what 764 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,520 Speaker 13: the issue is here, this is not only data privacy law, 765 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:31,120 Speaker 13: but this is data privacy law and children because essentially, 766 00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,040 Speaker 13: what the states are arguing is that, hey, you are 767 00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 13: intentionally harming children with how you're handling your platforms, the 768 00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,920 Speaker 13: futures that you're putting in place. And there were memos, 769 00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:45,680 Speaker 13: internal memos that were leaked from Meta into the public marketplace, 770 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,440 Speaker 13: and we found out that Meta was aware of the 771 00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,719 Speaker 13: harm that some of its futures caused to children. And 772 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,960 Speaker 13: so now the states are in an uprising over this. 773 00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 13: So that's what we're doing. That's what we're watching with 774 00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,680 Speaker 13: this case and watching the impact with it. And essentially 775 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,240 Speaker 13: some of the main concerns because you might say, okay, well, look, listen, 776 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,879 Speaker 13: isn't this just business as usual? You know, people want 777 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,560 Speaker 13: companies want to have platforms that their users want to 778 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:11,920 Speaker 13: be on. They want to make it user friendly, they 779 00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,160 Speaker 13: want people to be engaging with it, So how is 780 00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:18,560 Speaker 13: this that different? But the concern here is not just that, Okay, 781 00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,239 Speaker 13: we have an engaging platform. People are using it. But 782 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:24,000 Speaker 13: the concern here is that they have at a platform 783 00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:31,240 Speaker 13: that is specifically geared toward and working to psychologically hook kids. 784 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,120 Speaker 13: And so we say, okay, well, what futures are that? 785 00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,160 Speaker 13: I mean, isn't it just kids, you know, online socializing 786 00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:39,799 Speaker 13: with one another. But actually we see the comparison like 787 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:43,839 Speaker 13: future the filters they say are promoting body dysmorphia and 788 00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,759 Speaker 13: eating disorders. They're you know, saying, oh, did you have that? 789 00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,759 Speaker 6: No, No, I have none of that. What I'm what 790 00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,920 Speaker 6: I'm fascinated by. Look, there's a ton of studies that 791 00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:58,560 Speaker 6: show us that social media is in general toxic, but 792 00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:02,960 Speaker 6: it's especially toxic to children. But so are lots and 793 00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:07,359 Speaker 6: lots of other things. Hey, if are probably regulated for you. Yeah, 794 00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,640 Speaker 6: but isn't this something parents are supposed. 795 00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,759 Speaker 2: To regulate with their keep I was thinking exactly so. 796 00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:16,640 Speaker 6: And you know, to me, the bigger concern with Meta 797 00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:21,120 Speaker 6: I still call it Facebook is they and Google Google 798 00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:25,560 Speaker 6: just dominate online advertising. It seems like there's a little 799 00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:29,080 Speaker 6: bit of an anti trust question. How are two companies driving, 800 00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:33,760 Speaker 6: you know, the vast majority of ads online. It seems 801 00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:35,279 Speaker 6: there should be some competition. 802 00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,640 Speaker 2: It does seem I was gonna ask you, Novelle, is 803 00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,480 Speaker 2: this kind of a way in for prosecutors who have 804 00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:46,040 Speaker 2: concerns about monopolistic behaviors but just can't seem to bust 805 00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:47,759 Speaker 2: them on that kind of like you know, when they 806 00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,759 Speaker 2: were going after al Capone, they wanted to get him 807 00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,879 Speaker 2: for organized crime, and they actually ended up getting him 808 00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:56,759 Speaker 2: on taxi. So I just wonder if they're trying to 809 00:38:58,120 --> 00:38:59,799 Speaker 2: is that way for them to go in the back 810 00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:04,600 Speaker 2: door or and maybe kind of break up or minimize 811 00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:06,879 Speaker 2: a little bit the power of someone like Meta. 812 00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:10,160 Speaker 13: I'd say that it's possible, but it's not likely. And 813 00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:13,800 Speaker 13: that's because they're not asking them to break up their companies. 814 00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,960 Speaker 13: They're asking them to regulate how they're obtaining information on 815 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:20,520 Speaker 13: the users and to really comply with data privacy laws. 816 00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,319 Speaker 13: And so that's a different question that we're asking. And 817 00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,719 Speaker 13: so when we're saying, okay, you're doing psychological research on 818 00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,879 Speaker 13: how to make sure things are engaging for children, how 819 00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,240 Speaker 13: to make sure that you're hooking them, you have research 820 00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:35,759 Speaker 13: that shows it's harming them. But then you say, we're 821 00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:38,560 Speaker 13: not doing anything wrong. What's the problem here? This is 822 00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,400 Speaker 13: very similar to what we saw with the tobacco companies. 823 00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:43,920 Speaker 13: What we saw with Big Pharma, and so we have 824 00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:45,839 Speaker 13: to look at this really closely. It's not just a 825 00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:49,000 Speaker 13: matter of okay, right, parents need to regulate what the 826 00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,840 Speaker 13: students are doing, what the kids are doing. So, but 827 00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,800 Speaker 13: if you have the information, you know what to regulate. 828 00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,719 Speaker 6: So you lived in Europe for a long time, Yes, 829 00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:02,759 Speaker 6: Europeans seem to take the right to privacy laws much 830 00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:06,240 Speaker 6: more seriously than we do in the United States. Wouldn't 831 00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:08,960 Speaker 6: those sort of things that say, it's my data and 832 00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:13,120 Speaker 6: I can control it, and Facebook or for that matter, Apple, Google, 833 00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:17,720 Speaker 6: Amazon can't be selling and reselling. Isn't that the choke 834 00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:23,000 Speaker 6: point to generate some control over not only how these 835 00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:26,480 Speaker 6: companies affect us, but specifically what we allow them to 836 00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:28,800 Speaker 6: do with our minor children's data. 837 00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,080 Speaker 13: Berry That is an excellent question, and I couldn't agree more. 838 00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,239 Speaker 13: What we're seeing in the United States is we take 839 00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:37,120 Speaker 13: a lot of our privacy laws from the European model 840 00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:40,520 Speaker 13: with the General Data Protection Regulation or the GDPR, and 841 00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,560 Speaker 13: so we're taking our laws a lot from that, or 842 00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:44,960 Speaker 13: kind of adopting our own set, but not as. 843 00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:48,120 Speaker 6: Strict that we seem to be much looser than the European. 844 00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:50,200 Speaker 13: We're by state, so we'll see, you know, each state 845 00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:54,320 Speaker 13: has their own sets of regulations California, Illinois, and so forth, 846 00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,440 Speaker 13: but we are looking at how they do things and 847 00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,360 Speaker 13: the reality is, yes we have those regulations, Yes we 848 00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,880 Speaker 13: have it to protect, but if they're not being followed, 849 00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,399 Speaker 13: then that's the problem. And that's what's being alleged here 850 00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:07,480 Speaker 13: that they're violating some of the children's. 851 00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:08,240 Speaker 2: Data protection laws. 852 00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,799 Speaker 13: And so if that, I will tell you if they 853 00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:16,320 Speaker 13: violated either the children's Data protection privacy laws or even 854 00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:19,920 Speaker 13: any of our state ones, they absolutely most likely violated 855 00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,080 Speaker 13: the global ones, because anytime you have a user from 856 00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:27,080 Speaker 13: the EU any part of Europe, the GDPR comes into effect. 857 00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:29,680 Speaker 13: So I will tell you it's most likely also that 858 00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:33,560 Speaker 13: the EU regulators are watching this case very closely, because 859 00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:35,600 Speaker 13: if they are in fact found to be in violation 860 00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,520 Speaker 13: of privacy laws consumer protection laws, then we're also going 861 00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:41,760 Speaker 13: to see probably some issues abroad as well. 862 00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:45,960 Speaker 6: What are the damages if Meta loses the case? What 863 00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,480 Speaker 6: sort of options are going to take place? Is this 864 00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:51,960 Speaker 6: going to be them riting a big check or are 865 00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,360 Speaker 6: they going to have to change how they do business? 866 00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,080 Speaker 13: I think we'll see a variety of things. One of 867 00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:58,759 Speaker 13: the things that ended up coming up is they were 868 00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:02,239 Speaker 13: launching getting ready to launch Instagram Kids. And so Instagram 869 00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:08,920 Speaker 13: Kids was a flatform, a platform for children age thirteen 870 00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,759 Speaker 13: and under, and so you're talking about some of the 871 00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,840 Speaker 13: most vulnerable parts of our population. Children's minds are not 872 00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:18,640 Speaker 13: even developed yet. And so they did this and they 873 00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,560 Speaker 13: were in works with it. Another memo was leaked and 874 00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:25,160 Speaker 13: when that was found out, over forty US states went 875 00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:28,239 Speaker 13: ahead and wrote Mark Zuckerberg and said, listen, please stop it, 876 00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:31,680 Speaker 13: don't do it, don't move forward with it, and they did. 877 00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:34,040 Speaker 13: They paused it. So we might see injunctions here, so 878 00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,960 Speaker 13: a pause on work that they're doing or projects that 879 00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,560 Speaker 13: are in the works. We might see change in the 880 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:43,840 Speaker 13: platform and modification. We'll some disclosures, more disclosures because you 881 00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:46,319 Speaker 13: can't which you don't know is out there happening to 882 00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:48,960 Speaker 13: your child. So if you think, oh, what's the harm 883 00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:52,000 Speaker 13: and letting them, you know, have their comparison like Future 884 00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:54,560 Speaker 13: put their filters on. But if you don't know that 885 00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,560 Speaker 13: there's research that this harms your child and there's an 886 00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:59,880 Speaker 13: intent or problem, you can't regulate it. 887 00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:01,080 Speaker 2: So you'll see disclosures. 888 00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:02,799 Speaker 5: All right, Noville, thank you, so much for joining us. 889 00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:06,520 Speaker 1: Novelle Gonzalo, a founder of Gonzalo Law Group, bring us 890 00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:08,759 Speaker 1: up to date on some of the legal challenges out 891 00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:12,759 Speaker 1: there for meta as somebody, anybody in this case, the 892 00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:14,880 Speaker 1: States trying to get a handle on some of the 893 00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:18,040 Speaker 1: content that's being consumed out there, particularly by kids, so 894 00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:18,920 Speaker 1: we'll stay on top of that. 895 00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:23,120 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 896 00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:26,960 Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever 897 00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,760 Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 898 00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:34,160 Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. And I'm Faull Sweeney. 899 00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:35,680 Speaker 5: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 900 00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,480 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 901 00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:39,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio