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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast.

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Speaker 2: Jack Fitzpatrick here from Bloomberg Government, sitting in for Joe

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Speaker 2: Matthew today. A whole lot to talk about, and we

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Speaker 2: will talk to our panel a little later, Rick Davis

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Speaker 2: and Genie she and Zano about that big news that

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Speaker 2: just broke on your Bloomberg terminal about Harvard President Claudine

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Speaker 2: Gay resigning. If you saw the clips of her congressional

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Speaker 2: hearing last month, you know why. But first, I'm here

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Speaker 2: in the studio with Stephanie Lai, national politics reporter here

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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg, and there are so many things to talk about.

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Speaker 2: We're in the right month to talk about the new

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Speaker 2: Hampshire and Iowa primaries. Things are getting rolling. It is

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Speaker 2: a presidential election year. It is officially twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the first thing I want to touch on with

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Speaker 2: you is two ballot challenges to among others, but Colorado

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Speaker 2: and in case our listeners missed it, over the holiday's

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Speaker 2: main have moved to take President Trump off the primary

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Speaker 2: ballot over the constitutional measure that says you cannot be

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Speaker 2: on the ballot if you have engaged in insurrection. He

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Speaker 2: is banking on the Supreme Court to block that from happening. Stephanie,

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Speaker 2: I'm curious about the political angle of you know, it

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Speaker 2: seems like Trump is using this, is banking on this

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Speaker 2: as a motivating issue for his supporters. It's so unusual.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious when you can call this a trend. There's

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Speaker 2: two states. I mean, where does this fit into? One

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Speaker 2: is this a real threat for president former President Trump

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Speaker 2: in the primary? And two how is he playing it?

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Speaker 3: Certainly? So, I mean, I guess to start, the cases

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Speaker 3: that we're seeing right now are just a handful of

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Speaker 3: ones that are going to be continuing to come down.

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Speaker 3: And so what we see, how we see this Supreme

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Speaker 3: Court respond is really going to determine how the rest

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Speaker 3: of twenty twenty four plays out. I guess on one hand,

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Speaker 3: you know, Trump's team has been really great at politicizing

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Speaker 3: these legal issues that he continues to face. Whenever, you know,

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Speaker 3: an indictment had come down, we had seen them really

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Speaker 3: make the point that you know, Washington Democrats, everyone's out

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Speaker 3: to get him. They're trying to stop him, and they've

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Speaker 3: been using this to really energize his base because their

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Speaker 3: belief is that they have the votes to really win.

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Speaker 3: But it's just a matter of getting people to come

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Speaker 3: out and having these legal cases continue to make news

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Speaker 3: to put him, you know, in front of TVs all

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Speaker 3: day for you know, months on end. It really just

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Speaker 3: does help his political case.

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Speaker 2: Well, he is ahead, but I want to get into

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Speaker 2: where he's ahead, how much he's ahead among early states.

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Speaker 2: Do you have a view on where the most legitimate

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Speaker 2: challenges coming from. There's been so much back and forth

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Speaker 2: in New Hampshire on it. We'll get into the details

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Speaker 2: of Chris Snunu saying Chris Christy should drop out to

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Speaker 2: sort of make room for Nikki Haley and New Hampshire.

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Speaker 2: Is it New Hampshire? Is it Ronda Santis's push in Iowa?

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Speaker 2: Is there a credit threat in the Republican primary anywhere

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Speaker 2: to Donald Trump?

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Speaker 3: You know, at this moment, in terms of the four

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Speaker 3: early voting states that we've really been looking into, it

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Speaker 3: doesn't really seem like these competitors have made much leeway

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Speaker 3: in trying to cut off his momentum. You know, he

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Speaker 3: leads by about twenty five to thirty percentage points in

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Speaker 3: all of these states. The latest Iowa des Moin Register

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Speaker 3: poll showed that he had over fifty percent of the

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Speaker 3: support from likely caucus goers. And so the way that

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Speaker 3: DeSantis has tried to bet big on Iowa, it really

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Speaker 3: makes it seem like they're trying to cut him off early.

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Speaker 3: You know. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley's trying to make the argument

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Speaker 3: that in New Hampshire and South Carolina she can really

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Speaker 3: make leeway, and you know, polling shows that she's within

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Speaker 3: striking distance to Trump. So if anything, you know, I

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Speaker 3: don't think we're going to see it very early on,

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Speaker 3: but there is a chance will see some movement, likely

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Speaker 3: after New Hampshire, maybe South Carolina.

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Speaker 2: All right, Well after New Hampshire. I'm curious about New

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Speaker 2: Hampshire because, as you said, if you look at polling averages,

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Speaker 2: if you look at a lot of polls, solid lead

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Speaker 2: for Donald Trump. We are going to talk in a

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Speaker 2: little bit a few minutes to Chris Galdieri out of

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Speaker 2: Saint Anselm College, which has probably one of the best

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Speaker 2: looking polls lately for Nikki Hayley forty four to thirty

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Speaker 2: down fourteen points. I think that plays into the call

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Speaker 2: by New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu for Chris Christy to

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Speaker 2: drop out. In that poll, Christy got twelve percent. It

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Speaker 2: doesn't entirely make up the whole difference. I mean, it

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Speaker 2: seems we're getting close enough, obviously to these early primaries,

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Speaker 2: so there's pressure to consolidate. I mean, does that make

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Speaker 2: a difference. Is this a matter of especially in New Hampshire,

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Speaker 2: Is this a matter of Trump opponents not consolidating quickly enough,

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Speaker 2: or is it just an insurmountable lead for Trump at

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Speaker 2: this point.

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Speaker 3: No. I think you have a really interesting point there,

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Speaker 3: and it's something that political operatives have been telling us

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Speaker 3: for months that you know, with this wide field, it's

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Speaker 3: been almost impossible to cut away at Trump's lead because

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Speaker 3: there's so many different directions that voters can and go towards.

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Speaker 3: And so you know, as you point out, maybe there

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Speaker 3: is a chance that in New Hampshire we see some

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Speaker 3: sort of movement that gives Nicki Haley the momentum to

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Speaker 3: make the argument that she is a viable alternative to Trump.

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Speaker 3: But I think the question after these early voting states

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Speaker 3: is whether or not she has enough support in the

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Speaker 3: Super Tuesday States everything else in order to get enough

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Speaker 3: delegates to get her that nomination.

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Speaker 2: Certainly an interesting point how pivotal New Hampshire is for

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Speaker 2: Nicki Haley. If she can't pull off a miracle there,

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Speaker 2: what happens next? Stephanie Lai, national politics reporter with Bloomberg here,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us. We're going to

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Speaker 2: bring in Chris Galdieri, Saint Anselm College professor in New Hampshire.

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Speaker 2: They've got to pull out recently just came out. It

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Speaker 2: was conducted December eighteenth and nineteenth in New Hampshire. Professor Galdieri,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us. Top line takeaways

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Speaker 2: here a forty four to thirty lead Trump, Nikki Hayley,

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Speaker 2: and I'm really interested on your on your take on

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Speaker 2: is there consolidating that can be done among the the

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Speaker 2: anti Trump candidates, the non Trump candidates. Is there a

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Speaker 2: move to be made or is there any evidence that

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Speaker 2: this cake is baked? And a fourteen point lead is

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Speaker 2: very solid for Trump and there's not going to be

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Speaker 2: much more movement. Do you see an opportunity for a

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Speaker 2: challenger in these pulling numbers?

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Speaker 4: I think there is an opportunity, but I think it's

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Speaker 4: probably a very narrow one. You know, when the greatest

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Speaker 4: news your campaign has had all year is that you're

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Speaker 4: only down by fourteen points, you know that that's not

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Speaker 4: necessarily the sign of of a you know, John McCain

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Speaker 4: style upset in the offing. That said, if it's going

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Speaker 4: to happen anywhere, it's probably going to happen here. New

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Speaker 4: Hampshire is a state that has had a rocky relationship

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Speaker 4: between Trump and the Republican establishments such as it is

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Speaker 4: in the state. It's a state that Trump uh tried

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Speaker 4: mightily to carry in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty and

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Speaker 4: failed both times. And you know, I think, you know,

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Speaker 4: you do have a lot of Republicans in the party

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Speaker 4: who have never made their peace with Trump. That said,

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Speaker 4: you know, I'm not sure all of the non Trump

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Speaker 4: vote comes from the same place, by which I mean,

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Speaker 4: you know, we've talked a lot about Chris Christy and

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Speaker 4: should he drop out, But I think the folks who

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Speaker 4: are supporting Christy are the same sorts of folks who

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Speaker 4: you know, voted for Bill Weld, remember him four years

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Speaker 4: ago when he challenged Trump in the primary. These are

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Speaker 4: folks who are like the really dedicated never trumpers, and

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Speaker 4: I think the folks supporting folks like Haley are more

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Speaker 4: like the Republicans who, well, they were okay with the

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Speaker 4: tax cuts and they were thrilled with the judges. But

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Speaker 4: do we really want another four years of that? Wouldn't

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Speaker 4: it be nicer to have somebody else? And so I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure that those two groups necessarily come together.

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Speaker 2: So that sounds like a real limit on the ability

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Speaker 2: of Nicki Haley to get Chris Christie's votes. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I can't ask you to give me a percentage if

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Speaker 2: Chris Christy drops out, how much goes to Nicki Haley?

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Speaker 2: But does it go somewhere else? Is it clear who

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Speaker 2: specifically benefits if Christy were to drop out, which, of

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Speaker 2: course I'm raising because of Christin Nunu's push to get

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Speaker 2: him to drop.

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Speaker 4: Out, right, And there's really no logical place. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I guess maybe some of those folks do go to

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Speaker 4: Haley if they see her as the strongest opponent. But

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Speaker 4: I think one of the stumbling blocks for this suggestion

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Speaker 4: that Christy should drop out and endorse Haley is you know,

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Speaker 4: I think Christy is pretty dedicated never Trumper at this point,

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Speaker 4: and I think his concern if he were to drop

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Speaker 4: out and endorse someone else is is what if that

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Speaker 4: candidate loses, are they willing to endorse Trump and support Trump?

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Speaker 4: And I think that would be a deal breaker for him.

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Speaker 4: And we've had lots of indications from Haley that, you know,

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Speaker 4: she's not going to go all the way to the

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Speaker 4: extent of not supporting Trump if he does wind up

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Speaker 4: with the nomination this time around. I think she's made

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Speaker 4: noises about being willing to pardon him for various offenses

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Speaker 4: as well. You know, these these aren't the sorts of

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Speaker 4: things you say if you're prepared to throw the guy

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Speaker 4: overboard if if you lose to him. So I just

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Speaker 4: I think bringing those those different groups of you know,

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Speaker 4: never Trump Republicans and luke warm on Trump Republicans and

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Speaker 4: pro Haley Republicans, it's just, you know, it's it's not

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Speaker 4: as straightforward as simply Okay, Christy has twelve, we had

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Speaker 4: his twelve to Haley's thirty. Suddenly we've got a forty

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Speaker 4: four to forty two race.

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Speaker 2: Tell me a little more about the identity of the

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Speaker 2: new Hampshire Republican primary voter specifically, I'm thinking of somewhat

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Speaker 2: of a libertarian bent. But I mean you touched on

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Speaker 2: it with Trump's history there, What do we learn about

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Speaker 2: Trump's place or any candidate's place in the broader Republican

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Speaker 2: field based specifically on this New Hampshire Republican primary electorate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: New Hampshire Republicans are are really something of an outlier

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Speaker 4: in the national party these days. As you said, the

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Speaker 4: party has a real libertarian bent to it. You see

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Speaker 4: that on issues like abortion, you see that on issues

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Speaker 4: like labor unions. You see this on issues like same

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Speaker 4: sex marriage and transgender rights and that sort of thing.

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Speaker 4: It's not that the Republican Party here is overwhelmingly in

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Speaker 4: favor of those things, but you have enough Republicans who,

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Speaker 4: for instance, are pro choice or who oppose right to

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Speaker 4: work laws, who are supportive of transgender rights that it

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Speaker 4: makes you know, you know, sort of wholesale culture warring

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Speaker 4: that you might see in other states Republican parties. It

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Speaker 4: makes it a lot harder to pull off here. The

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Speaker 4: folks here who are Republicans, a lot of them, tend

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Speaker 4: to be much more in the sort of old guard

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Speaker 4: Yankee Republican mold than they are with, you know, rhetorical

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Speaker 4: bomb throwing, culture warring sorts of Republicans that you see

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Speaker 4: increasingly in other parts of the country these days.

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Speaker 2: Well, it may not be a perfect case study for

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Speaker 2: obvious reasons on the impact if there is an impact

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Speaker 2: of Nikki Hayley's comments, her back and forth on the

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Speaker 2: Confederacy the cause of the Civil War, first not mentioning

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Speaker 2: slavery and then saying, of course slavery was the issue,

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Speaker 2: the primary issue. The st Ansel poll was conducted before

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Speaker 2: that back and forth. I mean, just under with your

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Speaker 2: understanding of the voters, the numbers at play there, would

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Speaker 2: you expect her to take much of a hit among

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Speaker 2: New Hampshire Republican primary voters based on that flubb.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a little bit of a hit. I

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Speaker 4: think she has time to recover. I think what was

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Speaker 4: dangerous about that for her is that, you know, this

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Speaker 4: is a question everybody knows the answer to. It's slavery.

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Speaker 4: Homer Simpson knows the answer to that question. If you

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Speaker 4: remember the episode where he was helping up who pass

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Speaker 4: the citizenship test to not say slavery and then try

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Speaker 4: and say, oh, well, it was the federal government overstepping

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Speaker 4: its bounds and everything. Nobody believes that she believes that.

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Speaker 4: So I think it looked like pandering. It looked like

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Speaker 4: pandering to an audience that isn't really present here but

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Speaker 4: might be more of a factor in subsequent contests. And

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Speaker 4: I think it it just sort of you know, a

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Speaker 4: big part of her pitch has been, look, I'm a

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Speaker 4: truth teller. I'm gonna be a straight shooter with you,

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Speaker 4: that sort of thing, and then to completely flub what

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Speaker 4: caused the Civil War is just, you know, not a

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Speaker 4: great look.

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Speaker 1: That said.

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Speaker 4: I think this is probably something that reporters cared about

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Speaker 4: more than voters. And you know, my guess is that

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Speaker 4: when people finally vote three weeks from today, that there

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Speaker 4: will not be a whole lot of voters who you know,

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Speaker 4: go into the voting booth and they're prepared to fill

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Speaker 4: in the circle for Nicki Haley and say, oh but wait,

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Speaker 4: she said something silly about the Civil War back in December.

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Speaker 4: I think that voter is is you know, one guy

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Speaker 4: named Phil.

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Speaker 2: Real quick before we have to go, do you do?

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Speaker 2: Can you make a prediction yet? Who's the real front

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Speaker 2: runner in New Hampshire.

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Speaker 4: I think the real front runner is still Donald Trump,

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Speaker 4: you know. And I say that because as much as

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Speaker 4: we've had some good polls for Haley, the good polls

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Speaker 4: have heard, you know, down by fourteen points. We haven't

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Speaker 4: seen a poll that has her in the lead. We

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Speaker 4: haven't seen I don't think we've seen a poll that

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Speaker 4: has her within single digits of Trump. So I think

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Speaker 4: the challenge for her is can she get herself into

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Speaker 4: first place? And if she can't get herself into first place,

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Speaker 4: can she get the kind of really close second place finish.

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Speaker 2: When the good news is that you are down fourteen

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Speaker 2: it's not very good news. We're gonna keep it going.

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Speaker 2: In just a minute, with Rick Davis and Jeanie she

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Speaker 2: and Zano on our panel. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Harvard President Claudine Gay will resign this afternoon the latest

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Speaker 2: from the Harvard Crimson saying it will be the shortest

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Speaker 2: presidency in the university's history. And of course this is

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Speaker 2: really not limited to a Harvard story, a campus politics story.

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Speaker 2: This I think, and we'll see what the panel thinks,

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Speaker 2: but I think clearly comes on the heels of last

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Speaker 2: month exchange in Congress pressed by Congresswoman Elise Stephanic on

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Speaker 2: whether calling for a quote unquote intifada violated the campus's

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Speaker 2: anti harassment policy. It was a question that several presidents

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Speaker 2: of universities were not prepared for, clearly, including Claudine Gay.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to the panel, Rick Davis and Genie she

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Speaker 2: and Zano here for some insights on what seems to

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Speaker 2: be to me a bit of a proxy for the

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Speaker 2: difficulty of handling the politics of the Israel Hamas war

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Speaker 2: and the US's deep interest in it. That also seems

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Speaker 2: pretty tough for President Biden. Rick Davis, let's start with you,

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Speaker 2: what should we read into given the fact that somebody's

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Speaker 2: losing their job over the difficulty of answering questions about

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Speaker 2: not only this conflict, but anti Semitism in the US.

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Speaker 2: US voters support for different factions. This to me, this

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Speaker 2: seems to spell bad news for President Biden because people

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Speaker 2: are in serious trouble. But what what is your takeaway

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Speaker 2: in the broader picture with today's news about Claudine Gay.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think you make a good point about how

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Speaker 5: does all this roll up to politics on a national level.

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Speaker 5: We're in the middle of a presidential campaign. It is

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Speaker 5: the season, and and I think with with with the

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Speaker 5: point you make about President Biden. You know, he has

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Speaker 5: a lot at risk because the coalition of Democrats that

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Speaker 5: make up the Democratic Party is is probably more adversely

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Speaker 5: affected by what's going on in the Middle East right

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Speaker 5: now than the Republicans are. Republicans generally are are aligned

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Speaker 5: with their support for Israel, right and so so once

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Speaker 5: you get sort of straight on that, there's not a

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Speaker 5: lot of complication. Democrats, however, have a much different, much

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Speaker 5: more diverse constituency, and we see it in places like

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Speaker 5: Michigan with a very large air population Muslim population that

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Speaker 5: are going to affect the potential outcomes of a Michigan election.

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Speaker 5: Uh as it relates to as it relates to President Biden,

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Speaker 5: and and it's a key swing state. Harvard clearly a

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Speaker 5: bastion of Democratic liberalism within the Biden administration.

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Speaker 6: Uh.

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Speaker 5: And so when when when something controversial happens there, it

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Speaker 5: reverberates through that administration. And and and I think Clauding

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Speaker 5: Gay had a lot of other problems besides her very

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Speaker 5: poor uh appearance at the House of Representatives before the holidays.

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Speaker 7: Uh.

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Speaker 5: But ultimately that is the stone that that that broke

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Speaker 5: the window. And and I think it shows us that

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Speaker 5: this is still a very salient situation, very salient issue

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Speaker 5: with with American opinion makers but also voters.

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Speaker 2: Genie shen Zano, I have to ask you about especially

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Speaker 2: the pressure from from both sides, on both sides of

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Speaker 2: the issue for President Biden in particular because it and

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Speaker 2: will analyze polling over time on exactly how motivating it

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Speaker 2: is as an issue for pro Israel voters, for I

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Speaker 2: think younger Democrats who are calling for not only a ceasefire,

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Speaker 2: but in some cases the US blocking off aid to Israel.

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Speaker 2: Where does this leave President Biden? And is he in

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Speaker 2: an impossible position because of the pressure coming from multiple angles?

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Speaker 6: You know, I'm not sure I would join together her

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Speaker 6: decision to resign under pressure obviously, as you talked about

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Speaker 6: so much with President Biden. You know, I look at

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Speaker 6: this is specific to what was happening with Claudine Gay.

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Speaker 6: You know, she did survive her really out of touch

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Speaker 6: performance before Congress, her equally out of touch emails to

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Speaker 6: the student body, but in the end she lost support

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Speaker 6: amongst the faculty, amongst administrators, and importantly students. Some of

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Speaker 6: the best reporting on this story have come from Harvard students,

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Speaker 6: so kudos to them and the calls over the last

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Speaker 6: few days for her resign in the wake of this

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Speaker 6: plagiarism allegation, and it wasn't just one or two, it

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Speaker 6: was multiple. And you have students who have just gone

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Speaker 6: through finals, they have signed these Harvard Honors Code with

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Speaker 6: their faculty, and then to hear over and over again

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Speaker 6: that the leader of the academy herself is charged with

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Speaker 6: plagiarism became too much for Harvard to bear. So, you know,

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Speaker 6: this to me is specific to Claudine Gay, to you know,

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Speaker 6: the out of touch experience with Congress, certainly, but essentially

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Speaker 6: to what was hap happening behind the scenes at Harvard

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Speaker 6: as she was charged with these allegations. President Biden has

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Speaker 6: a separate issue, which is the issue of support for

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Speaker 6: hamas which has been a long standing issue on the

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Speaker 6: Democratic side with liberals, and Rick Rightley talked about Michigan

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Speaker 6: that is going to be something he has to contend with.

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Speaker 6: At this point, I'm not certain we can say it

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Speaker 6: will impacting at the poling booth because history shows very

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Speaker 6: few Americans vote on the basis of foreign policy. The

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Speaker 6: question of my mind is is there enough to change

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Speaker 6: support in a critical state like Michigan. I think that's

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Speaker 6: a fair question, and I think we have seen the president.

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Speaker 6: He went out on a limb to call out Benjamin

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Speaker 6: and Yahoo. He has not been happy with how the

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Speaker 6: Prime Minister has handled himself. So I think he is

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Speaker 6: responding to some of that already, and we'll have to

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Speaker 6: take a wait and see attitude. If liberals hold this

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Speaker 6: against him and decide to vote third party or just

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Speaker 6: stay home, which in a state like Michigan would impact him.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's talk. Let's take a broader look at President

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Speaker 2: Biden's struggles. Here is very tough position. Looking at the

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Speaker 2: USA Today Suffolk University poll that just came out today

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Speaker 2: published this morning, President Biden currently has support from sixty

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Speaker 2: three percent of black voters. That compares to eighty seven

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Speaker 2: percent in twenty twenty. He actually trails Trump in this

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Speaker 2: poll by five percentage points. He won by a thirty

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Speaker 2: three point margin in twenty twenty. I'm looking at young voters.

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Speaker 2: This poll has Trump ahead among voters under thirty five

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Speaker 2: nationally thirty seven to thirty three percent, a narrow lead.

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Speaker 2: That is taking twenty twenty numbers and flipping them on

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Speaker 2: their heads in some cases. Genie, I don't know if

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Speaker 2: we can say this is indicative of every poll that's

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Speaker 2: going to come out and every crosstab that shows us

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Speaker 2: where he stands with young voters and non white voters.

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Speaker 2: But this looks like a very very bad position. How

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Speaker 2: much work does President Biden have to do among black voters,

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Speaker 2: among Hispanic voters, and among young voters.

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Speaker 6: It is so important. This is what I think is

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Speaker 6: the most critical aspect of what's coming down the pipe

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Speaker 6: for him over the next year. Donald Trump in particular,

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Speaker 6: but the Republican coalition more broadly has been making great strides.

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Speaker 6: The group I look at most often our Latinos. You

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Speaker 6: add to that, African Americans, you add to that, as

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Speaker 6: you mentioned, young people. Joe Biden, any Democrat cannot win

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Speaker 6: if Republicans are making the games Trump has with that group.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I think what we are starting to see,

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Speaker 6: quite frankly, is a realignment of the parties and you

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Speaker 6: are seeing a populist group forming and there are Latinos,

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Speaker 6: African Americans and young people part of that on the

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Speaker 6: Republican side. If that keeps up, that's a problem for

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Speaker 6: the Democrats. And you know, it reminds me remember eight

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Speaker 6: twelve when Republicans lost, they did this great you know

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Speaker 6: piece looking back, what do we have to do now?

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Speaker 6: We have to make up with Latinos. That was the

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Speaker 6: big takeaway from that. And nobody thought Donald Trump, of

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Speaker 6: all people, would do that with his comments on undocumented immogrants,

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Speaker 6: and yet he has. We've known that's a problem for

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Speaker 6: Democrats and it continues to be. And this poll is

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Speaker 6: so important out of USA today showcasing just that.

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Speaker 2: Rick, Sorry to put you in a tough position, but

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Speaker 2: what's the twenty second version of what Donald Trump did

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Speaker 2: to improve his standing with black, Hispanic and young voters.

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Speaker 5: You know, look, he's not Joe Biden. I mean, Joe

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Speaker 5: Biden's the issue here, not anything Donald Trump did. And

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Speaker 5: Joe Biden has not done enough to create opportunity for

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Speaker 5: these young voters. The economy is everything to them, and

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Speaker 5: it's been, you know, really bad for the entire term

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Speaker 5: of his presidency. In this poll, there's some optimism to

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Speaker 5: be had but for the Biden people, but they've got

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Speaker 5: a long road.

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Speaker 1: To You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

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Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen

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Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 8: Twenty twenty four means election year is officially upon us.

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Speaker 8: We're now just over eleven months away from November, when

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Speaker 8: voters will head into the booth to decide who they

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Speaker 8: want to be president of the United States. Of course,

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Speaker 8: a lot could happen between now and then. We do

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Speaker 8: still have to get through the Republican primary race. Even

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Speaker 8: though Donald Trump at this point is seen as the

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Speaker 8: presumptive Republican nominee and incumbent President Joe Biden the presumptive

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Speaker 8: Democratic nominee. And yet when you look at polling, they

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Speaker 8: consistently showed that US voters would not like to see

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Speaker 8: the twenty twenty rematch that is taking shape here. If

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Speaker 8: they want someone else that is in Biden or Trump.

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Speaker 8: And then also polling continually shows that the income a

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Speaker 8: president is dealing with a bit of an approval problem

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Speaker 8: as he heads into this election year. We want to

436
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 8: get more on that now, and please to say, joining

437
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 8: me here in our DC studio is Mohammed Yunis, who

438
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 8: is the editor in chief of Gallup. Mohammed, great to

439
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 8: see you, Happy new year, to you new year. I'm

440
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 8: not sure that President Biden is feeling particularly happy as

441
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 8: he comes into this new year, knowing he ended last

442
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 8: year twenty twenty three, according to Gallups figures, with an

443
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 8: approval reading of just thirty nine percent. Can you give

444
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 8: us some context around that number, which quite low?

445
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 7: It is quite low.

446
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 9: It's a couple points higher than his previous reading. But

447
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 9: I think the real context is compared to every other

448
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 9: president in modern history who has sought reelection, he's far

449
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 9: behind where they were traditionally speaking. What we've seen in

450
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 9: our numbers is that a president going into a reelection

451
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 9: campaign at that fifty point mark is a really critical

452
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 9: number to be at, and obviously President Biden is far

453
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 9: behind that, but he's also significantly behind where Barack Obama

454
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 9: was and where Donald Trump was, which is pretty important

455
00:25:58,560 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 9: to note.

456
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 7: I think joy the Trump campaign, there was.

457
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 9: So much focus on how low and steady the number stayed,

458
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 9: and President Biden right now is behind where President Trump was.

459
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 8: Well, and you talk about the number staying low and

460
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 8: being pretty steady steady, isn't that the case with Biden?

461
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 8: I mean, he's been in and around that kind of

462
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 8: forty percent figure or below for some time now, and

463
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 8: it doesn't seem like that has that needle has moved

464
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 8: to any real degree at all.

465
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 7: It hasn't.

466
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 9: He started off like most presidents do in a honeymoon phase.

467
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 9: He has that fifty seven percent approval, which is pretty

468
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 9: high for in our era. Another thing, Kaylee, to always

469
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 9: keep in mind with these numbers specifically, is we are

470
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 9: in what it truly is a hyperpartisan era. So since

471
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 9: President Obama, the difference between people's views on the president

472
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 9: and how closely it's tied to their party ID is

473
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 9: stronger than ever. So presidents have had flatter sort of

474
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 9: frequencies on their approval ratings. But I think what's concerning

475
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 9: about President Biden's situation is that even compared to Obama

476
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:03,439
Speaker 9: and Trump, who also face that reality, he's significantly behind

477
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 9: right now.

478
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 8: Well, you talk about party id, are we seeing changes

479
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 8: in that as well? I know Gallubstunn done some work

480
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,119
Speaker 8: around this, the idea that people are just changing the

481
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 8: way they identify politically in these hyperpartisan times.

482
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,360
Speaker 9: Absolutely, And you opened up by saying, you know, there's

483
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 9: a lot of potentially unpredictable things can happen. One of

484
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 9: the really big changes that's happening in America is this

485
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 9: heightened and sustained number of people who are identifying as independents.

486
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 9: So today forty one percent of Americans say that they

487
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 9: identify as independence. It's basically half of that for Democrats

488
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 9: and Republicans. So party image is not really great in

489
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 9: the public right now. A broader data point I think

490
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 9: that really drives that home is we just released our

491
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 9: latest on satisfaction with the electoral process in the United States.

492
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 9: Seventy one percent of Americans say they are dissatisfied. So

493
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 9: there are so many data points I can go through

494
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 9: to really draw the picture of how people are not

495
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 9: particularly please with neither the options they have, how the

496
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 9: parties operate, or how the system operates.

497
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 7: More generally.

498
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 8: Okay, well, let's talk about the options. I mentioned that

499
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 8: we're seeing in pretty consistently in polls that the majority

500
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,119
Speaker 8: of voters would prefer it not to be a Biden

501
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 8: Trump rematched like twenty twenty all over again. And yet

502
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 8: that's likely what they're going to get unless there is

503
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 8: a viable alternative. What are you seeing around support for

504
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 8: a third party candidate, whoever that is.

505
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 7: Well, I can tell you who we see in terms

506
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 7: of favorables.

507
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 9: Of all the folks that are out there right now,

508
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,120
Speaker 9: President Biden and Trump are basically tied at forty one

509
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 9: percent of a favorable rating, and this is do you

510
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 9: have a favorable or unfavorable view of the following person?

511
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 7: DeSantis Hailey and.

512
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 9: DeSantis Hailey in specific Sarty are at their thirty so

513
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 9: really low thirty percent favorable rating. It's important to note

514
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 9: that this tends to happen with new names. People don't

515
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 9: know who they are. Kennedy, on the other hand, is

516
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 9: already breaking the fifty point mark, but that's probably because

517
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 9: of that name ignition factor that he has in his

518
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 9: favor So looking at the favorable ratings, which is really

519
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 9: a really good proxy I think at this point of

520
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 9: the contest to see who's graining traction with the public.

521
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 7: Really, none of them are.

522
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,719
Speaker 9: Nobody's really shot through the roof and impressed or wowed.

523
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 9: Of course, January fifteenth is just down the street. A

524
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 9: lot can change, particularly when those first results start coming

525
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 9: out from the caucuses, but right now, nobody's dominating well.

526
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 8: And ultimately, this all comes down to what the voter

527
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 8: is feeling as they head to the polls, when they're

528
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 8: making that decision who they're going to cast their vote for.

529
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 8: So whether this is feeding into what is making people

530
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 8: disapprove or approve of President Biden, or just how they're

531
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 8: thinking heading into an election year. Where are they ranking

532
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 8: their priorities. What does the American voter care about the most?

533
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 9: The American voter always and forever cares about the economy.

534
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 9: When it's always the economy, I love to use this line.

535
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 9: It's becoming kind of cheesy to repeat this, but the

536
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 9: economy is not only king, it's King, queen and bishop.

537
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 9: It is everything when Americans go to vote. Now, of course,

538
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 9: sitting here with you, of all people at Bloomberg, the

539
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 9: economy is light years away in terms of predicting where

540
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 9: it'll be in November. We have so much to happen

541
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 9: really from now till then, so it's not easy to

542
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 9: predict who's going to be the winner on that topic,

543
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 9: but that topic tends to be the most important topic.

544
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 7: I want to caveat that though.

545
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 9: One thing that's really interesting that's happening, particularly with President

546
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 9: Biden is the conflict in the Middle East, And what

547
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 9: we've picked up in our numbers and what we've seen

548
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 9: on streets and protests and conversations within the Democratic Party

549
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 9: is there really is a split with younger, more liberal

550
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 9: Democrats on where they want to see President Biden on

551
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 9: the issue specifically of how to handle the conflict, how

552
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 9: to end the conflict.

553
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 7: So that's an important factor.

554
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 9: And it will probably be with us for most of

555
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 9: this year, I think, even if not through November. So

556
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 9: it's an important top to keep in mind. But it's

557
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 9: probably not going to trump the economy.

558
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 8: Well, I'm glad you point that out, because young voters

559
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 8: are part of the demographic groups that helped propelled Wide

560
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 8: into victory in twenty twenty. There are others at play

561
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 8: here as well, Black and Hispanic voters for example, and

562
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 8: yet we're also seeing that increasingly those voters are turning

563
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 8: more away from President Biden. So how are you looking

564
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 8: at different demographic groups here, young people being one, but

565
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 8: others as well.

566
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 9: Absolutely, I think it's particularly interesting to look at young

567
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 9: people and non white Democrats and what we see on

568
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 9: those numbers, particularly when it comes to the Middle East conflict,

569
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 9: is they have a very different perspective on what they

570
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 9: want to see happen, how much they support the president's

571
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 9: current policies. You know, the economy is important to those

572
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 9: voters as well, and they tend to have a very

573
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 9: different perspective on when the economy is working or not working.

574
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 9: Another thing that's really important is the most important problem

575
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 9: according to the American public, and I say this so

576
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 9: many times. You know what I'm to say is poor

577
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 9: government and poor leadership. And with younger and minority voter

578
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 9: that tends to actually be a very powerful and resounding

579
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 9: issue for them. So the more that those voters continue

580
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 9: to feel that they're dissatisfied with the process, that they're

581
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 9: frustrated with how government operates, that they view government as

582
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 9: the most important problem facing America, the less that's going

583
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 9: to help an incumbent president, even if he is a Democrat.

584
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 8: I want to dig into this idea that you were

585
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 8: mentioning about how the president is handling Israel and Palestine

586
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 8: and how that's divisive among his democratic base. We obviously

587
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 8: had news today Claudine Gay is resigning as president of Harvard.

588
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 8: There's been a lot of backlash for testimonies she gave

589
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 8: in Congress last month, but also just on what has

590
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 8: been happening on Harvard's campus in regard to anti Semitism

591
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 8: in this conflict or at odds, people seem to be

592
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 8: feeling of support for Israel on the one hand and

593
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 8: support for Palestinians on the other. And that's not just

594
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 8: true at Harvard. We've seen this really across the country

595
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,720
Speaker 8: at this point on the Israel and Hamas conflict in particular,

596
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 8: what is the data, what is the polling telling you

597
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 8: about where America.

598
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 7: Is on this America split.

599
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 9: We did apologists ask people how they felt about the

600
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 9: current fighting happening in Israel and Gaza specifically, and whether

601
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 9: they support what's happening in terms of military operations America's

602
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 9: fifty forty five fifty percent of Americans say they support

603
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 9: what Israel's doing militarily, forty five percent say they don't,

604
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 9: and that's actually pretty notable, I should say, even before

605
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 9: this latest conflict ensued, this split among Democrats, particularly young

606
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 9: and minority Democrats on sympathies towards the Israelis versus the

607
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 9: Palestinians has been growing. This is not something that sort

608
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 9: of is taking place now because there's a war between

609
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 9: Hames and Israel. It really has been something that's building

610
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 9: sustainably at least for the past seven to eight years.

611
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 9: So this conflict really triggered, you know, that tinder that

612
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 9: was already there and building among liberals and in particular

613
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 9: kind of the left wing of the Democratic Party.

614
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 8: And we continue to get news on it each and

615
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 8: every day. Some other news that were actually still waiting

616
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 8: for Today, Muhammad relates to former President Trump and his

617
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 8: myriad of legal issues. On the one hand, he's due

618
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:13,839
Speaker 8: to have a reply in the DC Circuit Court in

619
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,919
Speaker 8: regard to the presidential immunity case. On the other we're

620
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 8: waiting to see if they file for appeal in the

621
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 8: Supreme Court of the Colorado decision to keep him off

622
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 8: the ballot on the grounds of the Fourteenth Amendment. What

623
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,879
Speaker 8: role does do the courts play for the American voter?

624
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 8: Do they trust the courts to be making these kind

625
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,280
Speaker 8: of decisions when it comes to a presidential candidate.

626
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 7: It's an amazing question.

627
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 9: Basically, right now, the Supreme Court sits at a historic

628
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 9: low in terms of public confidence. I should say, though,

629
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 9: that most national institutions are sitting near or at record lows.

630
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 9: So certainly the Supreme Court is not the arbiter of

631
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 9: all of these cases. But aside from the courts and

632
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 9: people's attitudes about them, what we've learned through the past

633
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 9: two years is that basically very few of these legal

634
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 9: development have impacted President's Trump's support with his base, so

635
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 9: I don't expect a big shift in public opinion. I

636
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 9: think what's really more critical to follow is whether or

637
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:13,800
Speaker 9: not some of these legal challenges develop into a situation

638
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 9: where it's not really feasible for him to be a

639
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 9: candidate in some of these contests, And I think that's

640
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:23,399
Speaker 9: really where things could change. But sort of waiting for

641
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 9: supporters to peel off because he's facing yet another legal challenge,

642
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,720
Speaker 9: we just haven't seen support for that in the data

643
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 9: all these past two years.

644
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 8: Yeah, so it may come down to whether or not

645
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 8: he actually is on the ballot, whether that Colorado ruling

646
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 8: holds up. Obviously, the Supreme Court is going to have

647
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 8: to make some decisions in regard to Trump, many of

648
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 8: them in all likelihood, But they're also going to be

649
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 8: dealing with some other issues in this term in an

650
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 8: election year, one of them being mithipristone access to the

651
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,240
Speaker 8: abortion pill. We know the effect that the overturning of review,

652
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 8: weight of the Dobbs decision, that impact had had in

653
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 8: twenty twenty two in the mid terms, they were to

654
00:35:57,239 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 8: make another ruling against abortion rights like that, do you

655
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 8: think we would have the same potency in twenty twenty four.

656
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 8: Are we still seeing abortion showing up as a galvanizing

657
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:05,919
Speaker 8: issue for the American voter.

658
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 9: We're still seeing abortion showing up. It's fascinating that you

659
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,280
Speaker 9: bring up MEPhI pristone because, like Roe v. Wade, mifhi

660
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 9: pristone tends to be something that the majority of Americans

661
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 9: support access to. So six and ten Americans actually support

662
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 9: people having access to that drug. If the Court were

663
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 9: to overthrow a decision or take a decision that takes

664
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 9: that away, yeah, it'll probably have some kind of a

665
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 9: negative impact on perceptions of the Court with folks who

666
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 9: share that view. Now, it's really rare to get six

667
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,879
Speaker 9: and ten Americans to agree on anything when it comes

668
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 9: to abortion. That's really what was unique about Roe v. Wade,

669
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:44,879
Speaker 9: even though it was challenged in many ways. I went

670
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 9: to law school hearing about how it was policy and

671
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:49,839
Speaker 9: not law. I mean a lot of people have criticized

672
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 9: that decision, but it had public support, and I think

673
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 9: that's what really drove the change in the public confidence

674
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 9: in the Supreme Court. And we saw that in their

675
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 9: of the court itself. We saw that in an elevated

676
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,320
Speaker 9: number of people saying that abortion was a really critical

677
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 9: issue for them when they vote. We saw that and

678
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 9: continue to see that in the currently elevated rate of

679
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:15,320
Speaker 9: people who are identifying as pro choice after that decision

680
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 9: came out.

681
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 7: So, yes, it's.

682
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 9: Still with us, and if there's another landmark decision, it'll

683
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 9: bring it right back to the floor.

684
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 7: And it's a potent issue.

685
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:23,399
Speaker 4: All right.

686
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,359
Speaker 8: We only have about a minute left, Muhammad, but we've

687
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 8: discussed We've covered a lot of ground here in what

688
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 8: twenty twenty four may bring, how people are feeling. What

689
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 8: is one other trend or something that you'll be focusing

690
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 8: on in twenty twenty four.

691
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 7: I think for us, it'll be the election.

692
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 9: It'll be what people are really tuning into for making

693
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 9: that decision to cast their vote. One thing we really

694
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 9: know right now is most Americans are still totally checked out.

695
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 9: They're not focused on political news, unlike you and I

696
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 9: night and day. I know it hurts my feelings too,

697
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 9: But as it gets closer to November, that number is

698
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 9: going to rise and we're going to start asking people

699
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 9: what do you bring into mind you cast that vote.

700
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 8: It's a good point. I feel like we've been living

701
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,279
Speaker 8: and breathing this for a year now, but really it's

702
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 8: still early days. Mohammed Yunis joining us. Gallups editor in chief.

703
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 8: Thank you so much as Sloomberg.

704
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 10: Thanks for listening to The Sound On podcast. Make sure

705
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 10: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and

706
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 10: anywhere else you get your podcasts. And you can find

707
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:22,440
Speaker 10: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm

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00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 10: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com