WEBVTT - China Had a Plan to Rescue Its Housing Market. It’s Not Working.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. It's been more than

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<v Speaker 1>three years since China Evergrand Group collapsed and sent a

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<v Speaker 1>shockwave through the country's property market. EVERGN shares down about

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<v Speaker 1>thirty percent this week alone. That's, of course, the stock

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<v Speaker 1>that's lost more than ninety percent of its value since

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<v Speaker 1>the peak.

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<v Speaker 2>The authorities are trying to ring fence this situation at Evergram.

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<v Speaker 1>We know it is the most indebted developer in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there's concern that you miss these payments, there

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<v Speaker 1>could be cross default. The stunning fall of one of

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<v Speaker 1>the country's largest builders marked the beginning of a property

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<v Speaker 1>slump that continues to drag down the Chinese economy. Today,

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese property crisis will probably not be resolved anytime soon.

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<v Speaker 2>Real estate has gone down, stocks have gone down, salaries

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<v Speaker 2>have gone down.

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<v Speaker 1>China's real estate market was once valued at more than

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<v Speaker 1>fifty trillion dollars and made up a full quarter of

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<v Speaker 1>the economy, But now, more than three years later, the

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<v Speaker 1>housing crisis doesn't seem to be getting any better. All

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<v Speaker 1>across China, tens of millions of newly built apartments lie vacant.

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<v Speaker 1>Developers are struggling to finish construction and homeowners are watching

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<v Speaker 1>their property values plummet. All of this is putting the

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<v Speaker 1>central and local governments under immense pressure to turn the

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<v Speaker 1>property market around.

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<v Speaker 2>So the big question is where are we in this

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<v Speaker 2>property crisis and what has been done? Is it working?

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<v Speaker 1>Lulu Chen is Bloomberg's editor for Asia Finance and Investing.

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<v Speaker 2>And I would say that Seizinping and his government came

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<v Speaker 2>up with this miracle pill, which is that they are

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<v Speaker 2>going to let the local governments by the unsold inventory,

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<v Speaker 2>access inventory and converted into affordable housing. Now, in theory,

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<v Speaker 2>great idea, but on the ground it's running into all

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<v Speaker 2>kinds of challenges.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.

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<v Speaker 1>Every week we take you inside some of the world's

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<v Speaker 1>biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and

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<v Speaker 1>businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,

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<v Speaker 1>China's Housing Rescue Plan. What is the Chinese government doing

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<v Speaker 1>to save the property market, Is it working, and what's

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<v Speaker 1>at stake if it fails. To take a closer look

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<v Speaker 1>at what exactly the Chinese government has tried to do

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<v Speaker 1>to boost the housing market, Lulu and other Bloomberg reporters

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<v Speaker 1>decided to focus in on a city called junk Joo.

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<v Speaker 2>Chung Sho is ground zero for a China's housing crisis.

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<v Speaker 2>It was one of the first few studies that saw

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<v Speaker 2>its real estate market crash. It was at the center

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<v Speaker 2>of the mortgage boycotts if you remember a few years back,

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<v Speaker 2>when people refused to pay their mortgages because the developers

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<v Speaker 2>were not able to finish the construction on the houses

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<v Speaker 2>that they already pre sold.

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<v Speaker 1>Junk Jo is a city of about twelve million people.

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<v Speaker 1>It's located in the Yellow River Valley in the heartland

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<v Speaker 1>of China.

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<v Speaker 2>It's the capital of Nam Province and that used to

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<v Speaker 2>be one of the nation's forest provinces. Junzhou these days

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<v Speaker 2>is most famous for being home to the largest iPhone factory,

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<v Speaker 2>Fox Cohn. They have their largest factory there.

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<v Speaker 1>The arrival of factories supporting Fox KHN and the ev

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<v Speaker 1>maker byd kicked off a period of rapid growth in

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<v Speaker 1>the city and new residential communities sprouted up.

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<v Speaker 2>Before the market crash. Junho was super ambitious. They wanted

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<v Speaker 2>to attract talent and investment. They wanted to become a

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<v Speaker 2>financial center, a logistics hub, hub and they even built

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<v Speaker 2>this massive artificial lake and Mammadde Financial Island.

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<v Speaker 1>But Lulu says, even in the early days, there were

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<v Speaker 1>signals that jung Chou probably had overbuilt.

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<v Speaker 2>I was reporting a story about China's property bubble about

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<v Speaker 2>twelve years ago, and we did look at Jungzhou, and

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<v Speaker 2>that was a place back then already attracted a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of skepticism. People were calling a ghost town. And even

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<v Speaker 2>back then it was you could see construction everywhere and

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<v Speaker 2>plots and plots of fields being converted into land for

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<v Speaker 2>real estate. Given how things have panned out, for sure,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think like the skepticism of them being overreaching

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<v Speaker 2>and taking on too much debt was evident even more

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<v Speaker 2>than a decade ago.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg reporters recently traveled to Junchhou, and Lulu says the

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<v Speaker 1>city feels less of a ghost town these days, but

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<v Speaker 1>it still looks like a gigantic construction site.

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<v Speaker 2>If you travel to Junjo today, you would see the

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<v Speaker 2>whole city just rife with half finished projects and government

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<v Speaker 2>loans are having some effect. Cranes are warring again, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's still stacks and stacks of empty buildings, empty skyscrapers,

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<v Speaker 2>and these massive boulevards with very few cars, lands that

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<v Speaker 2>were slated for development sitting idle, so much so that

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<v Speaker 2>locals have turned them into vegetable gardens.

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<v Speaker 1>In the decade through twenty twenty, junk Jou's urban area

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<v Speaker 1>more than doubled, but the population only grew less than

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<v Speaker 1>fifty percent. And Lulu, why is it that junk jo

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<v Speaker 1>never realized its goals? Why can't it just build its

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<v Speaker 1>way into prosperity.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well location, so Junjo is in the heartland of China,

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<v Speaker 2>and the context for their ambition is while they were

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<v Speaker 2>plotting this out, there were one hundred other cities who

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<v Speaker 2>wanted to be the saying they all wanted to be

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<v Speaker 2>technology hubs, they all wanted to be financial hubs. So

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<v Speaker 2>think of Junjho, but times by dozens or even hundreds.

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<v Speaker 2>And this was happening across China at the time.

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<v Speaker 1>And when the city government in junk Joe finally realized

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<v Speaker 1>that they were in trouble in twenty twenty two, they

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<v Speaker 1>sprang into action.

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<v Speaker 2>Juanjou threw everything on the wall after the property crisis happened.

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<v Speaker 2>They've tried so many ideas that officials from other cities

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<v Speaker 2>have been flocking there to study the model. They gave

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<v Speaker 2>loans to developers, trying to help them complete and finish projects.

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<v Speaker 2>They offer to buy surplus units, and even subsidies payments

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<v Speaker 2>to residents who would replace their outdate at homes.

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<v Speaker 1>Junk Cho's government purchased more than one hundred thousand unsold

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<v Speaker 1>units from real estate developers. It didn't say how much

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<v Speaker 1>money it spent, but local media Taishin reported the amount

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<v Speaker 1>could be around thirty billion yuen or about four billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>According to a state backed magazine, about three quarters of

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<v Speaker 1>the funding comes from commercial bank loans and the interest

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<v Speaker 1>rate was only three percent. And what did they do

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<v Speaker 1>with the properties that they bought.

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<v Speaker 2>They convert the mental affordable housing, which is something that

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<v Speaker 2>she has tried to champion. And these public units would

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<v Speaker 2>be both for sale or for rent.

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<v Speaker 1>And how is that going slowly?

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<v Speaker 2>Is going slowly? I think on the rental friend they

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<v Speaker 2>made some progress in attracting more people. On the sales front,

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<v Speaker 2>it seems that there's simply not enough demand where people

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<v Speaker 2>are willing to buy public housing even at such low

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<v Speaker 2>prices because of the belief that the prices are still

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<v Speaker 2>going to drop.

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<v Speaker 1>In theory, it sounds like a great idea. By purchasing

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<v Speaker 1>these apartments and converting them into public housing, the government

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<v Speaker 1>is trying to kill two birds with one stone to

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<v Speaker 1>absorb the oversupply on the market and to answer present

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<v Speaker 1>She's call to make housing more affordable. But Lulu says,

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<v Speaker 1>in reality, there are a lot of challenges on the ground.

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<v Speaker 2>So something as specific as finding enough apartments that fit

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<v Speaker 2>the criteria of what the government wants. Often they want

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<v Speaker 2>to find entire apartment blocks of small units that can

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<v Speaker 2>be converted into public housing, and that's a huge challenge

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<v Speaker 2>in itself. They also need to access cheap financing to

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<v Speaker 2>make money off of these projects, and then they have

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<v Speaker 2>to persuade the developers to sell these apartments at steep discounts,

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<v Speaker 2>which is another at tension. Goldman Sachs estimates that a

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<v Speaker 2>discount of thirty percent may be needed when they buy

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<v Speaker 2>these properties from the developers. What High Securities was even

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<v Speaker 2>more aggressive. They said that need to mark down the

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<v Speaker 2>property prices by fifty percent when they buy them from

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<v Speaker 2>the developers.

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<v Speaker 1>That's quite a bit.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah yeah, So the developers aren't willing or simply can't

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<v Speaker 2>afford to do this.

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<v Speaker 1>What the government ideally wants is that in some ways

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<v Speaker 1>the developers, even though they're selling it for discount, they

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<v Speaker 1>can at least.

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<v Speaker 2>What offload the inventory since they're gonna go belly up

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<v Speaker 2>or get liquid at to restructured.

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<v Speaker 1>It sounds like the government has to jump through a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of hopes to make that happen. Yes, and Lulu,

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<v Speaker 1>is this strategy working in Junjo?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think that's working. Junjo's property prices are still falling,

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<v Speaker 2>and what's happening in Junjo is very indicative of what's

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<v Speaker 2>happening in the rest of China.

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<v Speaker 1>What is happening in the rest of China. What else

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<v Speaker 1>is Beijing doing to shore up the property market and

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<v Speaker 1>can they succeed? That's after the break. China's property crisis

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<v Speaker 1>has become a massive headache for the world's second largest economy.

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<v Speaker 1>Across the country, there are tens of millions of unsold homes.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so, Bloomberg Economics estimates that the country has as

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<v Speaker 2>an inventory of about five point two billion square meters

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<v Speaker 2>of unsold housing. It would be the equivalent of sixty

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<v Speaker 2>million apartments.

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<v Speaker 1>Sixty million apartments, that's enough to house the entire population

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<v Speaker 1>of France. Bloomberg Economics estimates that it would take more

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<v Speaker 1>than four years to sell that inventory. That's assuming sales

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<v Speaker 1>don't keep falling Lulu. These numbers are staggering. What else

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<v Speaker 1>is Beijing doing to support the property market.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, They've made it easier and cheaper for people to

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<v Speaker 2>buy homes. They've lowered the existing mortgage rates, which would

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<v Speaker 2>lessen the burden for homeowners. In addition, the government has

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<v Speaker 2>been easing its monetary and fiscal policies since late September,

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<v Speaker 2>and they've also provided lending to developers so they can

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<v Speaker 2>finish approved projects. And this is what we commonly refer

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<v Speaker 2>to as the white list. The goal for whitelist loans

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<v Speaker 2>is to reach Fortrillionnuan, which would be about five hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and fifty billion dollars by the end of twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 2>That amount was more than three trillion yuan as of November.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a huge number. That's half a trillion US dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's one of the issues. And then the other

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<v Speaker 2>thing is the whitelist loans only address the issue of

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<v Speaker 2>finishing unbuilt projects. Right, there's the other part of the issue,

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<v Speaker 2>which is this excess supply of inventory, and unless the

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<v Speaker 2>government can address this excess inventory issue, the prices are

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<v Speaker 2>not going to rebound.

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<v Speaker 1>Even with the tons of money the central government is

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<v Speaker 1>pouring into the market to turn the property crisis around,

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<v Speaker 1>these fixes don't seem to be working so far. Used

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<v Speaker 1>home prices have declined for thirty nine straight months through

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<v Speaker 1>October to a level about thirty percent below the July

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty one peak. Lulu says there's a perfect storm

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<v Speaker 1>of structural issues that helps explain why the government isn't

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<v Speaker 1>really seeing the results they're hoping for.

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<v Speaker 2>Demographic challenges, which means that people are aging, population is dropping,

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<v Speaker 2>not enough demand. Also, the developers persistent liquidity crunch, unfinished

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<v Speaker 2>homes weighing on buyer confidence, and families stuck with this

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<v Speaker 2>mindset that home prices won't rise. Ceazingping has made it

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<v Speaker 2>quite clear that he doesn't want housing as a speculative investment.

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<v Speaker 2>With that kind of messaging, people are going to interpret that.

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<v Speaker 2>The overarching guidance is still that there is no upside

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<v Speaker 2>in investing in real estate, and what would be the

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<v Speaker 2>point in buying apartments.

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<v Speaker 1>Fundamentally, it all boils down to simple economics. There's too

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<v Speaker 1>many apartments and there's not enough people who want to

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<v Speaker 1>buy them, And Lulu says, if the government can't figure

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<v Speaker 1>out a way to ease the crisis and stabilize the

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<v Speaker 1>housing market, there could be even bigger consequences for the country.

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<v Speaker 2>At this moment, the property crisis is the greatest threat

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<v Speaker 2>to China's economy, and to a certain extent, it's the

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<v Speaker 2>government's owndoing because they're policy restrictions on developer leverage exacerbated

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<v Speaker 2>and triggered this unfolding of the real estate sector that

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<v Speaker 2>was already facing so many structural issues. You combine this

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<v Speaker 2>with the job losses, youth unemployment, China's export challenges, Trump tariffs,

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<v Speaker 2>and aging society that where all these households are counting

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<v Speaker 2>on real estate for about eighty percent of household wealth.

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<v Speaker 2>And what you have to is the perfect storm.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the Big take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.

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<v Speaker 1>Listen to our previous episode on China's real estate meltdown

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<v Speaker 1>after the nation's biggest developer, Country Garden, defaulted, and how

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<v Speaker 1>it upended hundreds of thousands of lives. You can find

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<v Speaker 1>the link in the show notes. This episode was produced

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<v Speaker 1>by Young Yah Naomi Um and Jessica Beck. It was

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<v Speaker 1>mixed by Alex Suguiera and fact checked by Adrianna Tapia.

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<v Speaker 1>It was edited by Caitlin Kenney and David Scanlan. Naomi

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<v Speaker 1>Shaven is our senior producer, Elizabeth Ponso is our senior editor,

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<v Speaker 1>Nicole Beemster Bower is our executive producer, and Sage Bauman

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Please follow and review The

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<v Speaker 1>Big Tick Asia wherever you listen to podcasts. It really

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<v Speaker 1>helps new listeners find the show. See you next time.