Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey P joe Pisapia and this
Speaker 1: is VP NFL. It's time to look ahead to the
Speaker 1: props and look way past Thursday Night Football. Oh what
Speaker 1: a punt fest. That was a lucky for me in
Speaker 1: one of my most important leagues. Ericson, I'm playing a
Speaker 1: team that has Kien Williams and Cooper Cup and let's
Speaker 1: just say the point total was not what they expected.
Speaker 1: So I think I'm very much alive fingers cross. Will
Speaker 1: see how it goes. But we got a lot of
Speaker 1: stuff to bet on this week, still a lot of props.
Speaker 1: I know. I'm gonna try not to ask Welshit all
Speaker 1: about last night because he doesn't want to talk about it.
Speaker 1: He's not in a good mood, and that's okay. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna let him. Just as Homer Simpson said, wallow in
Speaker 1: his own crapulence. That's what I'm gonna let you do.
Speaker 1: And Andrew Erickson, did you have any money on how
Speaker 1: many punts were in Thursday Night Football? Just out of curiosity?
Speaker 2: No, I did not.
Speaker 3: Had the Deebo Samuel first touchdown which he dropped, which
Speaker 3: would have easily cashed and saved everything else that I
Speaker 3: had bet on that game. The Grendel receiving yards, the
Speaker 3: last thing I add to the car was actually the
Speaker 3: only good bet that came out of Thursday night football.
Speaker 3: But guys, what this means is we're due do for
Speaker 3: a big week ration, for a big, big Sunday, big Monday.
Speaker 3: So we're gonna bounce back because again, all the touchdowns
Speaker 3: are now gonna scored on Sunday because we got numb
Speaker 3: on Thursday night. You know, there's a limited amount, finite
Speaker 3: amount of touchdowns are scored every single week, which mean
Speaker 3: the tuddies are coming in bunches on Sunday.
Speaker 4: So get ready, Rickson, it's not bitcoin. Touchdowns are not bitcoin.
Speaker 4: There's not a touchdown. Ye that made only a finite
Speaker 4: amount of touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Ericson's cock eyed optimism is exactly what this world needs.
Speaker 1: And you need to take a little bit more of
Speaker 1: it with you this weekend. That's what I say, take
Speaker 1: it with you.
Speaker 5: I don't need to hear anything from you right now.
Speaker 5: I don't know.
Speaker 4: I wish they had beat buttons on here now. That
Speaker 4: game was trash. I only had wished that. Did they
Speaker 4: say it's the first game all season that didn't have
Speaker 4: any touchdowns because that was, like I believe, so it
Speaker 4: was like two twenty two to one or two twenty
Speaker 4: to one. If you bet no touchdown in that game,
Speaker 4: that was the only play.
Speaker 1: What who would do that? Especially Pook had been playing
Speaker 1: and Stafford all that suff Yeah, we're on the Cincinnati folks.
Speaker 1: So let's move on. And don't forget when we're talking
Speaker 1: about props. Were using the prop bet cheat sheet. You
Speaker 1: can find it over at bettingpros dot com slash props
Speaker 1: or if you have the app, which you should download
Speaker 1: it sink your sports books for free. Use the prop
Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet to make all your prop bets. Welsh,
Speaker 1: let's shake the dust off and let's talk about bo Nicks,
Speaker 1: the greatest quarterback in the history of the league. He's
Speaker 1: been able to do some great things this year. All
Speaker 1: jokes aside, and it's a good matchup for him. They
Speaker 1: are favorites. So how do you want to approach bow
Speaker 1: Knicks with a two thirty seven and a half passing
Speaker 1: yards were going over or under this?
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're gonna go over and unlike uh DeAndre Campbell
Speaker 4: or Devondre Campbell or not gonna work here anymore, doesn't matter.
Speaker 4: Just because I lost doesn't mean I'm going to step
Speaker 4: off the show and not come back and play.
Speaker 5: I'm a gamer, he's not. And we're going with bow Knicks.
Speaker 4: Passing yards over two point thirty seven on the over, Yes, sir.
Speaker 4: He has hit this in three straight weeks. Colts have
Speaker 4: given this up in five of the last six weeks,
Speaker 4: coming off of a buye bo Nicks has Boonix just
Speaker 4: in general, the completion percentage and how he's worked. He
Speaker 4: has been this like low key, I like in their
Speaker 4: offense to like how Patrick mahomes and they'll have these
Speaker 4: rotational wide receivers keep moving throughout there. They've just like
Speaker 4: put bo Nix in a situation where he doesn't have
Speaker 4: to make these big, crazy plays. He can have just
Speaker 4: like high leverage, high completion passes and that works really
Speaker 4: well for him. And this Colts matchup is pretty fantastic
Speaker 4: on the ground in the air, so I love bo
Speaker 4: Nicks here. Projected numbers are quite a bit over this.
Speaker 4: I think majority of them are over two fifty. So
Speaker 4: coming off of the bye, that little bit of.
Speaker 5: Rest and game planning. Just love it even more.
Speaker 4: And as I think I said in the Prediction show
Speaker 4: to Ericson, bo Nicks is the horse king and the
Speaker 4: Colts will be the glue.
Speaker 1: Well, last week, Ericson, you were dogging your boy Bryce
Speaker 1: Young with the under and you were right now this
Speaker 1: week different matchup their favorites against the Cowboys. What a
Speaker 1: fun time that is. This time you found an over
Speaker 1: with Bryce Young. So it looks like maybe, just maybe
Speaker 1: all your Carolina stuff is on track. Baby, it looks
Speaker 1: like mister Panther is on a roll. So how are
Speaker 1: we gonna make money on Bryce Young this week?
Speaker 3: Let's get this straight. It's mister cardiac cat. The Panthers
Speaker 3: in their underdogs. That's in their Panthers. They're they're kittens. No,
Speaker 3: we've got the cardiac Cats coming out to play this
Speaker 3: week against Dallas at home. So the prop that I
Speaker 3: like the most is the one probably on my favorites
Speaker 3: this week is Bryce Young over his rushing yards at
Speaker 3: thirteen and a half. He's been over this in four
Speaker 3: straight games. He's at least seventeen rushing yards last four
Speaker 3: straight games. You look at Dallas, what do they offer
Speaker 3: the best on defense? Is their pass rush. So if
Speaker 3: they're going to get to Bryce Young, he's going to
Speaker 3: be running around trying to scramble. And the reason why
Speaker 3: is Dallas second and most rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks
Speaker 3: this season. So you've got the quarterback who's running a lot.
Speaker 3: The matchup is there, Bryce Youung's playing well, So I
Speaker 3: feel really good about this one. So I'm gonna go
Speaker 3: over on Bryce Young his rushing yards.
Speaker 1: Well for your second prop this week, we're gonna say,
Speaker 1: in the same game, go with cdee Lamb. Now is
Speaker 1: a receiving prop this week is around sixty three and
Speaker 1: a half. He has gone over this number three of
Speaker 1: the last four weeks, so can he do it again
Speaker 1: this week? Welsh?
Speaker 4: Yes, and that is the play sticking into that game.
Speaker 4: I love this one, and I will tell you this
Speaker 4: one's actually gone down. This has gone down two yards
Speaker 4: since the early market. He's had six or more receptions
Speaker 4: in four of his last five games, as you mentioned,
Speaker 4: by the way, including three games of eight or more.
Speaker 4: He has hit this in three of his last four games.
Speaker 4: Highly graded, you know, like right near the top ten
Speaker 4: of the wide receiver quarterback matchup metric that they put
Speaker 4: on pff.
Speaker 5: Which you like to see.
Speaker 4: They're also dogs, so if they're behind, they're going to
Speaker 4: be throwing. And one thing that we know is Cooper
Speaker 4: Rush is going to continuously throw the ball to Ceedee Lamb.
Speaker 4: So the question can be that there was one of
Speaker 4: those games where it was like an absurd amount of
Speaker 4: receptions and the yards weren't there, But you're going to
Speaker 4: be able to do that with the Panthers, And I'm
Speaker 4: not so sure that. I think because the Panthers are
Speaker 4: a favorite, a lot of people feel like, oh man,
Speaker 4: this is going to be a blowout, is going to
Speaker 4: be crazy. It's like, no, I think the Cowboys are
Speaker 4: going to be competitive. Panthers give up the most fantasy
Speaker 4: yards to running backs. I know it's a betting show,
Speaker 4: so that doesn't matter, but they're gonna be able to
Speaker 4: The Cowboys are gonna be able to establish a running game,
Speaker 4: which is going to help the passing game. And the
Speaker 4: passing game evolves around Ceedee Lamb. He is his own
Speaker 4: planet and everything else rotates around it. So this is
Speaker 4: really low total. I really like it for Ceedee Lamb.
Speaker 4: The receptions, by the way, also are five point five,
Speaker 4: but it's juice to Hell. So on a prediction side
Speaker 4: or projection side, it's around six receptions. So can I
Speaker 4: average over eleven yards per reception with CD lamb, Yes,
Speaker 4: I think I can against the Carolina Panthers. So I
Speaker 4: think this is a It's not my favorite favorite favorite
Speaker 4: of the week, but I think this one has a
Speaker 4: really nice floor.
Speaker 5: On the betting.
Speaker 1: Side, the last man's standing for the New Orleans Saints
Speaker 1: is Alvin Kamara, So a figure is going to get
Speaker 1: a lot of work. But Jake Canterer's playing quarterbacks, so
Speaker 1: maybe some three and outs could put that in jeopardy.
Speaker 1: So when you're looking at New Orleans this week, in
Speaker 1: this offense, and you're trying to evaluate Alvin can what
Speaker 1: side do you come out on?
Speaker 3: Undertaker, the under, the under on Alvin Kamara under sixty
Speaker 3: eight and a half rushing yards. Look, he had the
Speaker 3: smash spot last week. He had seventeen carries against the
Speaker 3: Giants and got forty four yards two point six yards
Speaker 3: percare against the freaking New York Giants to have one
Speaker 3: of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
Speaker 2: So in a game.
Speaker 3: Where the Saints are underdogs against the Commanders coming off
Speaker 3: a bye week, with Jake Hayner making the start, I
Speaker 3: don't know how much rushing yard Alvin Kamara is going
Speaker 3: to accumulate in this spot sixty eight and a half rushing yards.
Speaker 3: He's hit this number twice since Week four. It's week fifteen, guys,
Speaker 3: It's week fifteen, and it's nowhere near Week four. So
Speaker 3: I think that with Kendre Miller back. In the four
Speaker 3: games with Kendry Miller played this year, Alvin Kamara has
Speaker 3: gone under his rushing prop three of those games. Without
Speaker 3: Derek Carr, He's three, and Ozho towards the under. So
Speaker 3: I get why this number is what it is because
Speaker 3: of what he's done all year long, but all the
Speaker 3: other factors are at play in this matchup, no Derek Carr,
Speaker 3: tougher matchup, Kendrey Miller's hell healthy, I don't think he's
Speaker 3: coming nowhere near close sixty eight half rushing yards. So
Speaker 3: I think this number is going to continue to dip.
Speaker 3: I think that actually opened closer to seventy seven and
Speaker 3: a half rushing yards and it's been on a steady
Speaker 3: decline since that. So hop on it now because I
Speaker 3: think by the time this closes on Sunday, it's going
Speaker 3: to be around sixty five, sixty four to sixty three,
Speaker 3: and again he got he was under fifty yards against
Speaker 3: the Giants last week, So I continue to poundy under Erickson.
Speaker 4: I love this one too, you know, because I'm kind
Speaker 4: of on Candre Miller. They want you to press that
Speaker 4: over their offer, at least on DK right now, it's
Speaker 4: plus money to go over. You don't usually see plus
Speaker 4: money on rushing yard props, especially for running backs. So
Speaker 4: that's the play. Is this is steadily going down. Is
Speaker 4: they're wanting you to take that over, and I am
Speaker 4: with you on that. I kind of believe that Hendre
Speaker 4: Miller is going to be a little bit more involved.
Speaker 4: I almost took this one. I have like three running
Speaker 4: backs that are just in my brain about unders. I
Speaker 4: am is it the over today?
Speaker 5: For sure?
Speaker 4: But I tried, and I wanted and I've contemplated some unders,
Speaker 4: So I love this one all right.
Speaker 1: Before we get to the next prop bet on the
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Speaker 1: are betting smarter. Let's get to the next prop here
Speaker 1: on the list here for these gentlemen, Welsh. I love
Speaker 1: this one. I'm all in. I was talking up on
Speaker 1: the Thursday live stream on Fantasy Pros about Adam Thielen.
Speaker 1: You were here with the fifty one and a half
Speaker 1: receiving yards. The guy has been great, the ageless wonder,
Speaker 1: Adam Thielen. It makes me feel good because it's an
Speaker 1: older guy here. It's good to see when the old
Speaker 1: farts get out there and play football and do a
Speaker 1: good job. So I'm in on this over. Why should
Speaker 1: everybody else be betting it along with us?
Speaker 4: Well, by the way we're you and I are in
Speaker 4: the age where you look at like a thirty four
Speaker 4: year old as an old farmer.
Speaker 1: That's right. Well, he's a old far for football standards.
Speaker 1: That'd be for football for eric for.
Speaker 5: Wide receivers too.
Speaker 1: Yeah, get closer closer to old fart for football standards,
Speaker 1: ever closer, every shout out.
Speaker 4: To betting pros and the Meme department for last night,
Speaker 4: using Ericson at one of the team meet up falls
Speaker 4: whide receiver against our boy AJ. I don't think everybody
Speaker 4: knew what it was, but it's one of the greatest
Speaker 4: quarter I know, you're the quarterback there and our guy
Speaker 4: AJ's there and Ericson. Erickson, you look so tall in
Speaker 4: that too. You look like you're going to have really
Speaker 4: good Adam feeling like separation. Just sometimes the routes they
Speaker 4: don't always run four with slippery.
Speaker 3: That's one of the worst aesthetically like videos I've ever
Speaker 3: seen my entire life of myself, just like.
Speaker 2: A but just terrible.
Speaker 4: It's pretty, it's pretty amazing. But onto Adam Thielen. I
Speaker 4: love this number. I actually started on the receptions. I
Speaker 4: know you guys always like yards more than receptions. I'll
Speaker 4: get down with the receptions. But four and a half
Speaker 4: was the receiving reception number, which I think is a smash.
Speaker 4: But you're getting better odds on the yards, and I
Speaker 4: told myself was I was going through because you know,
Speaker 4: he smashed this on receptions across the board, but it
Speaker 4: was like around minus one thirty, said, if this is
Speaker 4: anything under sixty, think you got to smash the yards.
Speaker 4: And sure enough, fifty one and a half. He has
Speaker 4: hit this in three straight games. He has had twenty
Speaker 4: one targets and seventeen receptions over the last two games alone.
Speaker 4: The Cowboys have given up this receiving yard number to
Speaker 4: a wide receiver against eight straight weeks. Eight straight weeks,
Speaker 4: and Adam Thielen is the no doubt number one receiver
Speaker 4: for the Carolina Panthers who are favored. So we are
Speaker 4: now in the market. These three are like, I like
Speaker 4: those two that I've already had. We're now in the
Speaker 4: market that I really love these next three, and this
Speaker 4: is one that I love. It's a low number for
Speaker 4: a number one receiver against a Cowboys team that gives
Speaker 4: this up a bunch and a guy that is getting massive,
Speaker 4: massive amounts of a target share and the favorite, so
Speaker 4: Adam Thielen, I think yards is an absolute smash right now.
Speaker 1: Ryan Robinson Junior over six and a half receiving yards
Speaker 1: is where we're going next. So not the rushing, but
Speaker 1: the receiving. So Andrew, let's talk about this one. I
Speaker 1: know Austin Eckler is gonna be out here again, So
Speaker 1: he's probably not gonna when we're gonna get him back,
Speaker 1: if we're gonna get him back. But Robinson's role, especially
Speaker 1: coming off a buy, expects to be pretty large, and
Speaker 1: this seems like a pretty easy number to get. So
Speaker 1: where are you going here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think it's really really low for a
Speaker 3: player that, Yeah, you're not looking at Brian Robinson as
Speaker 3: this player that's known for his receiving props per se.
Speaker 3: But he's gone over this number in three of his
Speaker 3: last four. When I first got him's at five and
Speaker 3: a half receiving yards. He's gone over that in four
Speaker 3: straight games. So he's had at least six receiving yards
Speaker 3: in four straight games. So you're feeling pretty good if
Speaker 3: you're taking the over at six and a half. And
Speaker 3: part of the reason why I was drawn to this
Speaker 3: is the projections just have him flying way over this number.
Speaker 3: It's just way too low, and I don't think it's
Speaker 3: accounting for the fact that, like you said, Austin Eckler's
Speaker 3: not part of this offense.
Speaker 2: Like he's on edge reserve, he's not coming back.
Speaker 3: So even if Jerry m McNichols is playing in that
Speaker 3: Eckler role, I still think Robinson is good for at
Speaker 3: least one or two screen passes behind the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 3: And what do we know about the Saints. They cannot tackle,
Speaker 3: Like they're one of the worst tackling teams. In the end,
Speaker 3: they'll still try to tackle Sean Tucker from Week five
Speaker 3: or whatever, that monster game. So Brian Robinson again, he
Speaker 3: can get this on the first drive. You get this
Speaker 3: on the first play they decide to like dial up
Speaker 3: a screen pass form, which they do. Brian Robinson coming
Speaker 3: out of Alabama not really known as a receiver, but
Speaker 3: for some reason he'd always been kind of like overly
Speaker 3: efficient in the receiving game. So I really just I
Speaker 3: trust in the projections here. It's not just on VP.
Speaker 3: NFL Pro has really good projections as well, and those
Speaker 3: have him flying over this number. So without Eckler again,
Speaker 3: he's been over six receiving yards in both games without
Speaker 3: Eckler played this season. I think that gets this one
Speaker 3: done pretty easily.
Speaker 4: I want to throw out that I almost put this
Speaker 4: on my card and I did bet it. So I
Speaker 4: talked about like, oh I almost did the under. This
Speaker 4: is one that I've got my own sheet, and I
Speaker 4: you know these are the bets I'm gonna do, and
Speaker 4: here's the ones I put on the show.
Speaker 5: I bet this one. I'm with you.
Speaker 4: I also got five and a half, which seems like
Speaker 4: an absolute smash. So this is a definite co sign
Speaker 4: here as one that is already on the betting pros
Speaker 4: app under my name.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I also put it together with him scoring anytime touchdown,
Speaker 1: which is minus three already on the Jews pretty heavy
Speaker 1: this week, which feels, you know, probably right. But we
Speaker 1: put that together with this number here, the six and
Speaker 1: a half, you get plus one seventy. That's a pretty
Speaker 1: good spot to live into. You get that into plus money.
Speaker 1: That seems like a lock there for me. Let's get
Speaker 1: to to a tongue Yiloa next. I got a stat
Speaker 1: for you, Welsh to his last four games, seventy five
Speaker 1: percent completion percentage, thirteen hundred passing yards, eleven touchdowns, no picks,
Speaker 1: and a passer rating of one eighteen point five. So,
Speaker 1: taking on the Texans this week, how do you want
Speaker 1: to approach to a tongue of Biloa? Considering this run
Speaker 1: he's been on.
Speaker 4: We are going to take those touchdowns on all those
Speaker 4: stats over those four games. Add one more stat he
Speaker 4: has had two touchdowns or more in those four straight
Speaker 4: games he has thrown. So we are going over one
Speaker 4: point five on the passing touchdowns the Texans, they have
Speaker 4: given up two or more touchdowns in four or five games.
Speaker 4: You can't run against the Texans. The Dolphins can move.
Speaker 4: They're definitely not that early season's Dolphins where every other
Speaker 4: play is a run and we're like, what the hell
Speaker 4: is going on?
Speaker 1: Now?
Speaker 4: They're getting the ball on the air more Tyreek Hill.
Speaker 4: I'll tell you I have a Tyreek Hill bet. But
Speaker 4: the line moved a little too much. I took him
Speaker 4: off of the show. I was going to put the
Speaker 4: receiving yards on this show, but I took it early,
Speaker 4: and it's moved up three or four yards already. And
Speaker 4: this is just a really great spot. So two is
Speaker 4: hitting this from the passing department. You can pass against
Speaker 4: the Texans while not running, So I think that is
Speaker 4: what is going to happen. I think there are multiple
Speaker 4: things that align in a great way where Two is
Speaker 4: throwing touchdowns, the Texans are giving them up, the Jaalen
Speaker 4: Waddle is finally reconnecting. So give me one point five
Speaker 4: over passing touchdowns for two of this week.
Speaker 3: I like this one a lot too well because I
Speaker 3: think too you look at the Texans, they give up
Speaker 3: the highest percentage of passing touchdowns in the NFL. So
Speaker 3: whenever Miami does ultimately score, it's probably going to be
Speaker 3: through the air, even.
Speaker 2: If it's a pass to eight Chan or Wattle or
Speaker 2: Tyreek Kill. So this is a really good one.
Speaker 4: Or John Oan overtime to screw up your your playoff run,
Speaker 4: playoff runt.
Speaker 1: No bitterness, none whatsoever. A big market game between the
Speaker 1: Bills and the Lions. And usually when you're talking about
Speaker 1: running backs in the Lions catching the football, we're talking
Speaker 1: abou Jamir Gibbs. But instead we're gonna talk about David Montgomery.
Speaker 1: Here's a fun fact. Seven to last eight weeks, he's
Speaker 1: gone over this number for receiving yards. Now, I didn't
Speaker 1: quite realize that. I know you got it fifteen and
Speaker 1: a half. I see it on betting pros at sixteen.
Speaker 1: So we're going over this. This is kind of sneaky
Speaker 1: because I think everyone's perception of the Lions is all
Speaker 1: Manty just kind of runs the football and runs in
Speaker 1: you know, those touchdowns. But he's done a lot more
Speaker 1: than that, and it clearly the stats bear that out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's been kind of under the radar as the
Speaker 3: receiving back in this backfield. And shout out to the
Speaker 3: betting pros prop bet cheat sheet again. I'm looking through
Speaker 3: each of the matchups looking for the flame emojis, right,
Speaker 3: like who's up streak, like who can I back and
Speaker 3: to see Davi Montgomery seving guards and say this, like
Speaker 3: this little flame like it's burning bright though, because like
Speaker 3: you said, I mean, he's been hitting this consistently week
Speaker 3: in and week out, over fifteen and a half receiving
Speaker 3: yards in six straight games and ten of his thirteen
Speaker 3: games played the season. That's almost eighty percent of the
Speaker 3: time he's hitting this number. So him, by himself in
Speaker 3: a neutral matchup is going over this number in most
Speaker 3: of his games that he's played. And then you factor
Speaker 3: in Buffalo's defense, one of the worst defense in terms
Speaker 3: of defending running backs in the passing game top three,
Speaker 3: most yards, most catches, and targets to running backs this
Speaker 3: season in the passing game. So in a script where hey,
Speaker 3: you could actually see Detroit having to throw a little
Speaker 3: bit more love Dave Montgomery here going over as receiving
Speaker 3: arts brought because this is a game strip where you're
Speaker 3: actually expecting Jared Goff to probably drop back a little
Speaker 3: bit more than usual, where it's he dropped, he throws
Speaker 3: twenty times and you just kind of hoping Montgomery rips off,
Speaker 3: breaks a couple of tackles. So this one definitely another
Speaker 3: one of my favorites on the card this week.
Speaker 1: All right, Welsh, let's go to the Battle of Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: for the last one. We're gonna start with here and
Speaker 1: then we'll get to the touchdown calls. So Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: not passing stuff this week, but rushing is where you're going,
Speaker 1: so let's talk about the why.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I ended up really loving this one, and like,
Speaker 4: I don't bet a whole lot of Russ props or
Speaker 4: anything like that, but just as I kept digging in
Speaker 4: seven point five rushing yards for us this week, and
Speaker 4: I was like, Okay, this is interesting because it's a
Speaker 4: tough matchup against Philly, But what's like the one thing
Speaker 4: that's in our face. No George Pickens, there's no chance
Speaker 4: he's gonna play, and they cannot get the ball deep
Speaker 4: and they want to Russ wants to and I think
Speaker 4: without having Pickens, that's going to be a situation that's
Speaker 4: going to end up having Russ take the ball down more.
Speaker 5: Now seven point five rushing yards.
Speaker 4: He has hit this in two of his last three games,
Speaker 4: while never this season having less than three rushes per game.
Speaker 4: So you've got a floor of three rushes per game.
Speaker 4: You've also now got a deep game that is taken
Speaker 4: away from him. Let's throw the Eagles into this. The
Speaker 4: Eagles have given up this rushing yard number two quarterbacks
Speaker 4: they've played against every single week of the season, starting
Speaker 4: from Week four on. It doesn't matter the quarterback. Trevor
Speaker 4: Lawrence is in there, hit it, Joe Burrow's in there,
Speaker 4: hit it. Rushing quarterbacks, they hit it. Quarterbacks on average
Speaker 4: against the Eagles are averaging four carries eighteen yards rushing.
Speaker 4: I love this marker because you know us is getting
Speaker 4: at least three carries. The deep game is gone, the
Speaker 4: pressure in I think is gonna move him up the
Speaker 4: field more. And the Eagles are giving this up. And
Speaker 4: like I said, every single game they've given up this
Speaker 4: rushing yard total two quarterbacks since Week four. It ends
Speaker 4: up weirdly being one of my favorite bets this week.
Speaker 1: I think it's a very interesting one. I mentioned to
Speaker 1: Ericson that I feel like at some point Field is
Speaker 1: going to get some work in this game, because when
Speaker 1: you're down at a weapon like Pickens, you want to
Speaker 1: try to offset things a little bit. I've been searching everywhere.
Speaker 1: I can't get any justin Fields props. I'm even looking
Speaker 1: for like an any time touchdown for him right now,
Speaker 1: and it's hard to find, which is a shame. But
Speaker 1: if he if you get it, folks, if it pops
Speaker 1: up in the next you know, twenty four hours, I'd
Speaker 1: be all over it. Go ahead, Ericson.
Speaker 3: I can't wait to see like when Russ has his
Speaker 3: eyes glow right and then he's like I'm gonna run.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna run him. In my mind, I'm like, let
Speaker 3: Ross cook, let's go.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I want him to run.
Speaker 4: I mean, by the way, like because I love this one.
Speaker 4: Like last week, as we're going four and one, just
Speaker 4: want to point that out. I'm very jaded right now
Speaker 4: because of the Niners and losing my off from last night.
Speaker 4: But I was great last week on this show. But
Speaker 4: like one of my favorites was Bijon, and that was
Speaker 4: only one that didn't hit. This will probably be the
Speaker 4: one because the logic is there. I do want to
Speaker 4: point out to you DraftKings has justin fields anytime touchdown
Speaker 4: at plus seven hundred, so seven to one.
Speaker 1: Oh so DK's got it, okay. I was looking on
Speaker 1: VANDU that couldn't find it there. I couldn't find on
Speaker 1: the app yet. So that's good. That's very good news.
Speaker 1: All right. So, speaking of good process, I know you've
Speaker 1: been talking all weeks since Monday, you've been talking about
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts in the same game Ericson. You've got some
Speaker 1: feelings about this one too. He had been very turnover
Speaker 1: prone last year. This year it's been always a more
Speaker 1: conservative offense, much to the chagrin of AJ Brown. But
Speaker 1: that might change a little bit this week. And if
Speaker 1: it does, there's more room for error, and it looks
Speaker 1: like Andrew Erickson wants to take advantage of that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jalen Hurts is going to throw an interception this week.
Speaker 2: It's going to happen. Because we're talking.
Speaker 3: About the Steelers. We love the Steelers plus five and
Speaker 3: a half. So how do they cover this game? Oh, well,
Speaker 3: they get an interception. I'm Jalen Hurts. Like it's pretty
Speaker 3: intuitive to think, Okay, well they get a pick, they're
Speaker 3: going to cover the five and a half point spread.
Speaker 3: This game is going to go under the total because
Speaker 3: it's going to be gritty, gonna go through the mud.
Speaker 3: And the thing with Hurts, right, the narrative all week
Speaker 3: has been AJ Brown, this, AJ Brown's got to get
Speaker 3: his target's got to take the overs on AJ Brown.
Speaker 3: But I'm kind of looking at it from like a
Speaker 3: different perspective, where, Okay, now Jalen Hurts is gonna have
Speaker 3: to throw into more tight windows because they got to
Speaker 3: get AJ Brown ten targets or else he's gonna be
Speaker 3: upset and he's gonna go on Twitter again and complain.
Speaker 3: So I'm looking at it from a different respective thank
Speaker 3: instead of taking overs on AJ Brown, look at Jalen Hurts, Well, boy,
Speaker 3: you're gonna get intercepted this time because start the year
Speaker 3: he was throwing picks left and right, because he was
Speaker 3: forcing more throws. The last time he threw an interception
Speaker 3: was against Dallas, one of the tougher pass rushes they
Speaker 3: have faced this season. Pittsburgh's defense this year third interceptions first,
Speaker 3: and turnover margin. They have an interception in ten of
Speaker 3: thirteen games played, including eight of their last nine games.
Speaker 3: So he's way overdue to throw a pick. And if
Speaker 3: they're gonna be dialing up more pass attempts, well arrest
Speaker 3: my case he's getting intercepted this week.
Speaker 1: There you go, So I iNTS are coming for Jalen
Speaker 1: Hurts and hopefully some touchdowns as well well. And the
Speaker 1: Touchdown Score Report at bettingpros dot com slash touchdown is
Speaker 1: the way to get an edge on your touchdown bets.
Speaker 1: Our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop
Speaker 1: bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime
Speaker 1: touchdown bets you're gonna find anywhere. It's head over right
Speaker 1: now to bettingpros dot com slash touchdown for the latest
Speaker 1: touchdown prop analysis today. I've got my touchdowns ready to rock.
Speaker 1: Let's go going. Jerry Judy one of the best wide
Speaker 1: receivers in the league. When Jamis Winston is out there,
Speaker 1: so I know the weather might be tricky in that game,
Speaker 1: I still think we're gonna get Jerry Judy to find
Speaker 1: the end zone plus one sixty five and the squeaky
Speaker 1: wheel gets the grease. I think Jalen Hurts might throw
Speaker 1: a pick, but I think at some point he's also
Speaker 1: gonna throw a touchdown to AJ Brown plus one forty five. Again,
Speaker 1: when you chirp, typically get the football, and I expect
Speaker 1: that to happen this weekend. Good four o'clock games. So
Speaker 1: you got that game, you got the Bills Detroit games,
Speaker 1: really fun stuff in that late window. Ericson, let's go
Speaker 1: to you for your touchdowns this week. I know you've
Speaker 1: got one that is a double dip as well that
Speaker 1: you high on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's call it the Trey mcdouble.
Speaker 3: Right, Trey McBride's going to score two touties this week
Speaker 3: against the New England Patriots, like they're the worst defense
Speaker 3: in terms of EPA allowed per play to players in
Speaker 3: pass catches that are aligned tight. And we all know
Speaker 3: the shtick with Trey McBride this year. Can't catch touchdown.
Speaker 3: He sees all these red zone targets, is on pace
Speaker 3: to have the most receiving yards targets without a receiving touchdown.
Speaker 2: YadA, YadA, YadA.
Speaker 3: Okay, this is where regression comes to head, right, this
Speaker 3: is where you have an explosion game in an exposable
Speaker 3: matchup we know that we're going to see Christian Gonzales
Speaker 3: cover of Marvin Harrison Junior. Patriot's defense is overall very bad,
Speaker 3: and I don't think they have anyone that can really
Speaker 3: stop Trey McBride, who is a drowning in targets over
Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 2: So I love McBride here. And it's funny.
Speaker 3: I mentioned this on the FP Show l this week,
Speaker 3: but there's actually special on DraftKings because they're also aware
Speaker 3: of the the Trey McBride lack of touchdowns. At plus
Speaker 3: seven hundred, bet McBride to have nine receptions and not
Speaker 3: score a touchdown and it's called Trey McBride's maid basically.
Speaker 1: So I like that.
Speaker 3: So it's an interesting if you want to go heavy
Speaker 3: on some of these multi touchdown approaches to the baby ride. Again,
Speaker 3: he's probably gonna have a ton of catches in yards
Speaker 3: in this game too, But that's just an interesting thing
Speaker 3: that I was looking at that I thought was kind
Speaker 3: of funny because the books are aware that Pride is
Speaker 3: allergic to the end zone. So, uh yeah, trading Brad
Speaker 3: scoring this week, okay?
Speaker 1: Uh And you've also got one for with a stone
Speaker 1: cold Steve Austin to get the end zone this week.
Speaker 1: Who is it? You got there?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 3: Yeah, but uh, that's smarter, not harder, guys, Stone, I'm
Speaker 3: doing it for all the bits and the trade.
Speaker 2: That's smarter, not harder.
Speaker 1: Big double with cheese, So we go Stone Smart.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: Tight end for those aren't aware. Tight end for the
Speaker 3: Los Angeles Chargers. I think Joe, it's been a long season.
Speaker 3: I think I finally found my Donald Parhum that I've
Speaker 3: been looking for as.
Speaker 1: A replacement all this time.
Speaker 3: And I think again a uh, former wide receiver convert
Speaker 3: Chargers tight end that is Stone Smart here. So I
Speaker 3: expect him to get the start this week. With Will
Speaker 3: Disley out last week, in just the second half, he
Speaker 3: had three targets fifty four yards twenty four yard grab.
Speaker 3: And what I've noticed with Justin Herbert this year is
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter who the titand has been like he
Speaker 3: has hyper targeted that position. And you look at the matchup.
Speaker 3: The Hit Bay Buccaneers are one of the worst defenses
Speaker 3: in the NFL against guarding tight ends. So if they're
Speaker 3: going to be scoring, is it going to be Gus
Speaker 3: Buss up the middle against the stack box I don't
Speaker 3: think so. I think it's going to be Stone Smart
Speaker 3: finding the end zone. So those are my tight end
Speaker 3: touchdowns on the call this week. I'm looking forward to.
Speaker 1: Here we go, one smart fellow, he felt smart. All right, Welsh,
Speaker 1: your turn. Let's blow this up here with some touchdown call.
Speaker 5: Man Ericson loves those tight ends.
Speaker 4: I mean, if we could have a percentage of how
Speaker 4: many times you bet tight end touchdowns fifty percent I
Speaker 4: think on the year. But all right, my touchdown calls
Speaker 4: this week, number one, we are going with a tight end.
Speaker 4: Would you look at that? I am going with a
Speaker 4: tight end. I'm going with brock Bowers. It's interesting when
Speaker 4: you look at the Falcons. The Falcons are getting demolished
Speaker 4: from wide receivers. They don't really rank if you sort
Speaker 4: by tight end, they don't really rank like you know,
Speaker 4: they're giving up a ton of fantasy points or touchdowns
Speaker 4: as far as wide receivers go. They're giving up the
Speaker 4: most receiving touchdowns in the NFL, the wide receivers right
Speaker 4: now and on the last month, they're also giving up
Speaker 4: the most touchdowns. Well, guess what brock Bower is not
Speaker 4: just a tight end. Rock Bowers is everything. He's the
Speaker 4: wide receiver of the tight end, the number one, the
Speaker 4: be all end all.
Speaker 5: For the Raiders.
Speaker 4: This is a great spot to a secondary. When they
Speaker 4: move Bowers out, I mean mayor Michael Mayer, they've end
Speaker 4: up putting in as a tight end spot who's played
Speaker 4: really well. Brock Bowers is going to score. It's plus
Speaker 4: one sixty this week. It's a great matchup. My other
Speaker 4: touchdown call going with a quarterback going than anytime touchdown
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson. That one is sitting around plus one point eighty,
Speaker 4: which I really like over on Lamar Jackson. The Giants
Speaker 4: have given up these seventh most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks
Speaker 4: so far this year. It is a ridiculous matchup across
Speaker 4: the board. We're going to be hyper focused on Derreck
Speaker 4: Henry Lamar is going to put one in at plus one.
Speaker 4: Also want to point out you had plus three twenty
Speaker 4: on stone Smart plus three forty on DK for stone
Speaker 4: Smart anytime touchdowns. So make sure to go to Betting
Speaker 4: Pros check out the tab of each player where you
Speaker 4: can analyze the bets and you can see the best
Speaker 4: betting market across the land. If you like to shop
Speaker 4: around to the best odds for Stone Smart, Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 4: brock Bauers, or even multi touchdowns for Trey McBride.
Speaker 1: Fun, fat, guys. I know you like fun facts. So
Speaker 1: there's two games on the slate where there's any time
Speaker 1: touchdown scores that are all in the plus money. Do
Speaker 1: you want to guess what those two games might be?
Speaker 1: So no minus, So there's no expectations. I feel like
Speaker 1: Vegas is silently telling us, maybe you should take the
Speaker 1: unders in these games. I'm just saying I think it's
Speaker 1: kind of interesting. You rarely see that that, like one
Speaker 1: guy is not in the minus or at least even money,
Speaker 1: they're all in the plus money. You want to take
Speaker 1: a guest.
Speaker 5: Here, I am going to say, ooh, this is really tough.
Speaker 1: Just think it's fun. This is just fun at the
Speaker 1: end of the show, all right, Jaguars, Jets, Jaguars is
Speaker 1: one of them. Jaguars plus one thirty DeVante Adams is
Speaker 1: the best one you get. No, it's not the Broncos
Speaker 1: right now anyway as a record.
Speaker 3: Not can't be, can't be Steel's Eagles, No, no.
Speaker 5: Hey, Patriots, Cardinals, now Connor's.
Speaker 1: No, No, it's actually Brown's and Kansas City Chiefs. Everybody's
Speaker 1: in the plus money on that one. Interesting, So the
Speaker 1: best one is Pacheco plus one twenty.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's really clear. Okay, that's the.
Speaker 1: Lowest of the of the I just thought that was
Speaker 1: really odd. Typically there's only always one guy and if
Speaker 1: you get a game like that, Okay, maybe you get
Speaker 1: one game like that where everyone's a plus, but not too. Honestly,
Speaker 1: it's typically an odd thing.
Speaker 3: So yeah, that seems uh fishy Verry sauce, very saus
Speaker 3: So Travis kell is gonna score this week? Then I
Speaker 3: guess he asked he has to score.
Speaker 4: Need Andre Hopkins to go absolutely ballistic. Shout out to
Speaker 4: Derek Brown who has me laddering DeAndre Hopkins this week.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean weather, it could be an issue in
Speaker 1: that one, so just pay attention before I bet it. Well,
Speaker 1: you gotta sit your line alerts over on the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros app and again download that bad boy, subscribe to
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros podcast wherever you get your pods and
Speaker 1: of course our YouTube channel as well. That's what you do,
Speaker 1: and drop your comments below. What are your favorite prop
Speaker 1: bets for Week fifteen? That I'll do it for us
Speaker 1: those are hours, but the story of the game goes
Speaker 1: on for the Welsh and the Undertaker. I'm Joey P.
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros podcast.
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