WEBVTT - Top 10 NFL Week 15 Player Prop Picks & Predictions (Ep. 620) 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:03.440 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:06.120 your bets. It's me Joey P joe Pisapia and this 0:00:06.680 --> 0:00:09.040 is VP NFL. It's time to look ahead to the 0:00:09.080 --> 0:00:13.680 props and look way past Thursday Night Football. Oh what 0:00:13.800 --> 0:00:17.079 a punt fest. That was a lucky for me in 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:20.079 one of my most important leagues. Ericson, I'm playing a 0:00:20.120 --> 0:00:22.520 team that has Kien Williams and Cooper Cup and let's 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:24.640 just say the point total was not what they expected. 0:00:24.680 --> 0:00:27.160 So I think I'm very much alive fingers cross. Will 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:29.000 see how it goes. But we got a lot of 0:00:29.040 --> 0:00:31.920 stuff to bet on this week, still a lot of props. 0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:34.280 I know. I'm gonna try not to ask Welshit all 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:36.400 about last night because he doesn't want to talk about it. 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:39.080 He's not in a good mood, and that's okay. I'm 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:41.960 gonna let him. Just as Homer Simpson said, wallow in 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:43.960 his own crapulence. That's what I'm gonna let you do. 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:47.279 And Andrew Erickson, did you have any money on how 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:49.800 many punts were in Thursday Night Football? Just out of curiosity? 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:50.600 No, I did not. 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:53.560 Had the Deebo Samuel first touchdown which he dropped, which 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:55.920 would have easily cashed and saved everything else that I 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:59.280 had bet on that game. The Grendel receiving yards, the 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:00.840 last thing I add to the car was actually the 0:01:00.840 --> 0:01:03.720 only good bet that came out of Thursday night football. 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:06.280 But guys, what this means is we're due do for 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:09.280 a big week ration, for a big, big Sunday, big Monday. 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:12.920 So we're gonna bounce back because again, all the touchdowns 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:14.679 are now gonna scored on Sunday because we got numb 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:17.199 on Thursday night. You know, there's a limited amount, finite 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:19.440 amount of touchdowns are scored every single week, which mean 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:21.919 the tuddies are coming in bunches on Sunday. 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:25.200 So get ready, Rickson, it's not bitcoin. Touchdowns are not bitcoin. 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:28.720 There's not a touchdown. Ye that made only a finite 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:29.679 amount of touchdowns. 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:33.040 Ericson's cock eyed optimism is exactly what this world needs. 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:34.720 And you need to take a little bit more of 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:37.280 it with you this weekend. That's what I say, take 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:37.800 it with you. 0:01:38.080 --> 0:01:40.080 I don't need to hear anything from you right now. 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:40.560 I don't know. 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:43.200 I wish they had beat buttons on here now. That 0:01:43.240 --> 0:01:46.320 game was trash. I only had wished that. Did they 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:48.240 say it's the first game all season that didn't have 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:51.000 any touchdowns because that was, like I believe, so it 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:53.880 was like two twenty two to one or two twenty 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:57.000 to one. If you bet no touchdown in that game, 0:01:57.040 --> 0:01:57.960 that was the only play. 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:00.240 What who would do that? Especially Pook had been playing 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:03.520 and Stafford all that suff Yeah, we're on the Cincinnati folks. 0:02:03.560 --> 0:02:05.920 So let's move on. And don't forget when we're talking 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:07.640 about props. Were using the prop bet cheat sheet. You 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:10.160 can find it over at bettingpros dot com slash props 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:12.359 or if you have the app, which you should download 0:02:12.400 --> 0:02:14.440 it sink your sports books for free. Use the prop 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:16.880 bet cheat sheet to make all your prop bets. Welsh, 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:19.320 let's shake the dust off and let's talk about bo Nicks, 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:22.000 the greatest quarterback in the history of the league. He's 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:23.760 been able to do some great things this year. All 0:02:23.840 --> 0:02:26.640 jokes aside, and it's a good matchup for him. They 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:28.840 are favorites. So how do you want to approach bow 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:31.880 Knicks with a two thirty seven and a half passing 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:33.400 yards were going over or under this? 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:37.720 Yeah, we're gonna go over and unlike uh DeAndre Campbell 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:41.760 or Devondre Campbell or not gonna work here anymore, doesn't matter. 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:44.600 Just because I lost doesn't mean I'm going to step 0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:46.360 off the show and not come back and play. 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:49.839 I'm a gamer, he's not. And we're going with bow Knicks. 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:53.799 Passing yards over two point thirty seven on the over, Yes, sir. 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:56.280 He has hit this in three straight weeks. Colts have 0:02:56.320 --> 0:02:59.959 given this up in five of the last six weeks, 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.440 coming off of a buye bo Nicks has Boonix just 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:06.840 in general, the completion percentage and how he's worked. He 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:09.320 has been this like low key, I like in their 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:11.600 offense to like how Patrick mahomes and they'll have these 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:15.560 rotational wide receivers keep moving throughout there. They've just like 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:18.520 put bo Nix in a situation where he doesn't have 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:21.000 to make these big, crazy plays. He can have just 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:24.440 like high leverage, high completion passes and that works really 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.359 well for him. And this Colts matchup is pretty fantastic 0:03:27.400 --> 0:03:29.680 on the ground in the air, so I love bo 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:32.480 Nicks here. Projected numbers are quite a bit over this. 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:35.000 I think majority of them are over two fifty. So 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:36.960 coming off of the bye, that little bit of. 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:39.360 Rest and game planning. Just love it even more. 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:41.680 And as I think I said in the Prediction show 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:45.160 to Ericson, bo Nicks is the horse king and the 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:46.480 Colts will be the glue. 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:49.880 Well, last week, Ericson, you were dogging your boy Bryce 0:03:49.960 --> 0:03:53.320 Young with the under and you were right now this 0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:56.520 week different matchup their favorites against the Cowboys. What a 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:58.839 fun time that is. This time you found an over 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.920 with Bryce Young. So it looks like maybe, just maybe 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:04.400 all your Carolina stuff is on track. Baby, it looks 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:07.680 like mister Panther is on a roll. So how are 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:09.160 we gonna make money on Bryce Young this week? 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:12.280 Let's get this straight. It's mister cardiac cat. The Panthers 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:16.080 in their underdogs. That's in their Panthers. They're they're kittens. No, 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:18.760 we've got the cardiac Cats coming out to play this 0:04:18.839 --> 0:04:21.520 week against Dallas at home. So the prop that I 0:04:21.600 --> 0:04:23.239 like the most is the one probably on my favorites 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:25.760 this week is Bryce Young over his rushing yards at 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:28.360 thirteen and a half. He's been over this in four 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:31.480 straight games. He's at least seventeen rushing yards last four 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:34.600 straight games. You look at Dallas, what do they offer 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:36.960 the best on defense? Is their pass rush. So if 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:38.520 they're going to get to Bryce Young, he's going to 0:04:38.560 --> 0:04:41.080 be running around trying to scramble. And the reason why 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:44.520 is Dallas second and most rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:47.720 this season. So you've got the quarterback who's running a lot. 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:50.200 The matchup is there, Bryce Youung's playing well, So I 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:51.720 feel really good about this one. So I'm gonna go 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:53.440 over on Bryce Young his rushing yards. 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:56.400 Well for your second prop this week, we're gonna say, 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:58.960 in the same game, go with cdee Lamb. Now is 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:03.040 a receiving prop this week is around sixty three and 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:05.719 a half. He has gone over this number three of 0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:08.240 the last four weeks, so can he do it again 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:09.599 this week? Welsh? 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:12.280 Yes, and that is the play sticking into that game. 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:14.039 I love this one, and I will tell you this 0:05:14.080 --> 0:05:16.479 one's actually gone down. This has gone down two yards 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:20.800 since the early market. He's had six or more receptions 0:05:20.800 --> 0:05:22.960 in four of his last five games, as you mentioned, 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:26.880 by the way, including three games of eight or more. 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:29.359 He has hit this in three of his last four games. 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:32.040 Highly graded, you know, like right near the top ten 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:34.440 of the wide receiver quarterback matchup metric that they put 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:35.560 on pff. 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:35.960 Which you like to see. 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:39.000 They're also dogs, so if they're behind, they're going to 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:40.839 be throwing. And one thing that we know is Cooper 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:44.159 Rush is going to continuously throw the ball to Ceedee Lamb. 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:46.320 So the question can be that there was one of 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:48.800 those games where it was like an absurd amount of 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:51.480 receptions and the yards weren't there, But you're going to 0:05:51.520 --> 0:05:53.560 be able to do that with the Panthers, And I'm 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:56.920 not so sure that. I think because the Panthers are 0:05:56.960 --> 0:05:58.800 a favorite, a lot of people feel like, oh man, 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:00.360 this is going to be a blowout, is going to 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:01.919 be crazy. It's like, no, I think the Cowboys are 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:04.680 going to be competitive. Panthers give up the most fantasy 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:07.040 yards to running backs. I know it's a betting show, 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:09.120 so that doesn't matter, but they're gonna be able to 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:11.320 The Cowboys are gonna be able to establish a running game, 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.200 which is going to help the passing game. And the 0:06:14.240 --> 0:06:17.920 passing game evolves around Ceedee Lamb. He is his own 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:21.039 planet and everything else rotates around it. So this is 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:23.680 really low total. I really like it for Ceedee Lamb. 0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:26.360 The receptions, by the way, also are five point five, 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:30.440 but it's juice to Hell. So on a prediction side 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:33.840 or projection side, it's around six receptions. So can I 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:38.040 average over eleven yards per reception with CD lamb, Yes, 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:40.120 I think I can against the Carolina Panthers. So I 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:43.000 think this is a It's not my favorite favorite favorite 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:44.359 of the week, but I think this one has a 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:45.239 really nice floor. 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:46.040 On the betting. 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:48.359 Side, the last man's standing for the New Orleans Saints 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:50.280 is Alvin Kamara, So a figure is going to get 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:53.839 a lot of work. But Jake Canterer's playing quarterbacks, so 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:55.960 maybe some three and outs could put that in jeopardy. 0:06:56.000 --> 0:06:57.960 So when you're looking at New Orleans this week, in 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:00.440 this offense, and you're trying to evaluate Alvin can what 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:01.760 side do you come out on? 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:05.000 Undertaker, the under, the under on Alvin Kamara under sixty 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:06.960 eight and a half rushing yards. Look, he had the 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:09.560 smash spot last week. He had seventeen carries against the 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:12.720 Giants and got forty four yards two point six yards 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:15.040 percare against the freaking New York Giants to have one 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:16.760 of the worst run defenses in the NFL. 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:17.960 So in a game. 0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:20.800 Where the Saints are underdogs against the Commanders coming off 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:23.880 a bye week, with Jake Hayner making the start, I 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:26.560 don't know how much rushing yard Alvin Kamara is going 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:29.880 to accumulate in this spot sixty eight and a half rushing yards. 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:32.880 He's hit this number twice since Week four. It's week fifteen, guys, 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:36.320 It's week fifteen, and it's nowhere near Week four. So 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:39.040 I think that with Kendre Miller back. In the four 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:41.160 games with Kendry Miller played this year, Alvin Kamara has 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:44.080 gone under his rushing prop three of those games. Without 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:46.760 Derek Carr, He's three, and Ozho towards the under. So 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.160 I get why this number is what it is because 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:51.800 of what he's done all year long, but all the 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:55.240 other factors are at play in this matchup, no Derek Carr, 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:58.560 tougher matchup, Kendrey Miller's hell healthy, I don't think he's 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:00.880 coming nowhere near close sixty eight half rushing yards. So 0:08:00.960 --> 0:08:02.560 I think this number is going to continue to dip. 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:05.160 I think that actually opened closer to seventy seven and 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:06.880 a half rushing yards and it's been on a steady 0:08:06.880 --> 0:08:09.160 decline since that. So hop on it now because I 0:08:09.160 --> 0:08:11.760 think by the time this closes on Sunday, it's going 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:13.760 to be around sixty five, sixty four to sixty three, 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:16.600 and again he got he was under fifty yards against 0:08:16.640 --> 0:08:20.480 the Giants last week, So I continue to poundy under Erickson. 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:22.560 I love this one too, you know, because I'm kind 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.560 of on Candre Miller. They want you to press that 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:27.880 over their offer, at least on DK right now, it's 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:32.559 plus money to go over. You don't usually see plus 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:36.240 money on rushing yard props, especially for running backs. So 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:38.960 that's the play. Is this is steadily going down. Is 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:41.719 they're wanting you to take that over, and I am 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:43.800 with you on that. I kind of believe that Hendre 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:45.320 Miller is going to be a little bit more involved. 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:47.720 I almost took this one. I have like three running 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:50.520 backs that are just in my brain about unders. I 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:52.160 am is it the over today? 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:52.800 For sure? 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:56.360 But I tried, and I wanted and I've contemplated some unders, 0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:57.760 So I love this one all right. 0:08:57.800 --> 0:08:59.520 Before we get to the next prop bet on the 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:01.440 list for the boys. If you're looking for a way 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:04.280 to get cash back to load funds on your favorite 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:07.840 sports book or daily fantasy site, our partner edge Boost, 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:11.360 the financial platform for smartbetters, allows you to do just that. 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:13.560 Here's how it works. 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I was talking up on 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:31.520 the Thursday live stream on Fantasy Pros about Adam Thielen. 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:33.680 You were here with the fifty one and a half 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:37.080 receiving yards. The guy has been great, the ageless wonder, 0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:39.720 Adam Thielen. It makes me feel good because it's an 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:41.760 older guy here. It's good to see when the old 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:43.680 farts get out there and play football and do a 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:46.240 good job. So I'm in on this over. Why should 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:47.959 everybody else be betting it along with us? 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:50.160 Well, by the way we're you and I are in 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:51.840 the age where you look at like a thirty four 0:10:51.920 --> 0:10:53.400 year old as an old farmer. 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:55.680 That's right. Well, he's a old far for football standards. 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:57.160 That'd be for football for eric for. 0:10:57.160 --> 0:10:58.160 Wide receivers too. 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:02.160 Yeah, get closer closer to old fart for football standards, 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:04.080 ever closer, every shout out. 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:08.120 To betting pros and the Meme department for last night, 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:11.480 using Ericson at one of the team meet up falls 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:15.360 whide receiver against our boy AJ. I don't think everybody 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:17.360 knew what it was, but it's one of the greatest 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:21.000 quarter I know, you're the quarterback there and our guy 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:23.839 AJ's there and Ericson. Erickson, you look so tall in 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:25.400 that too. You look like you're going to have really 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:28.800 good Adam feeling like separation. Just sometimes the routes they 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:30.480 don't always run four with slippery. 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:34.400 That's one of the worst aesthetically like videos I've ever 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:36.280 seen my entire life of myself, just like. 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:40.120 A but just terrible. 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:43.880 It's pretty, it's pretty amazing. But onto Adam Thielen. I 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:46.240 love this number. I actually started on the receptions. I 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:48.880 know you guys always like yards more than receptions. I'll 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:52.360 get down with the receptions. But four and a half 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:55.800 was the receiving reception number, which I think is a smash. 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.440 But you're getting better odds on the yards, and I 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:00.440 told myself was I was going through because you know, 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:03.200 he smashed this on receptions across the board, but it 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:05.280 was like around minus one thirty, said, if this is 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:08.200 anything under sixty, think you got to smash the yards. 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:10.080 And sure enough, fifty one and a half. He has 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:13.480 hit this in three straight games. He has had twenty 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:18.400 one targets and seventeen receptions over the last two games alone. 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:22.640 The Cowboys have given up this receiving yard number to 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:27.840 a wide receiver against eight straight weeks. Eight straight weeks, 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:32.360 and Adam Thielen is the no doubt number one receiver 0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:35.880 for the Carolina Panthers who are favored. So we are 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:38.120 now in the market. These three are like, I like 0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:40.360 those two that I've already had. We're now in the 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:42.559 market that I really love these next three, and this 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:44.680 is one that I love. It's a low number for 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.439 a number one receiver against a Cowboys team that gives 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.000 this up a bunch and a guy that is getting massive, 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:52.720 massive amounts of a target share and the favorite, so 0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:56.800 Adam Thielen, I think yards is an absolute smash right now. 0:12:57.200 --> 0:13:00.760 Ryan Robinson Junior over six and a half receiving yards 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:02.640 is where we're going next. So not the rushing, but 0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:05.280 the receiving. So Andrew, let's talk about this one. I 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:07.440 know Austin Eckler is gonna be out here again, So 0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:09.760 he's probably not gonna when we're gonna get him back, 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.439 if we're gonna get him back. But Robinson's role, especially 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:14.559 coming off a buy, expects to be pretty large, and 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:16.200 this seems like a pretty easy number to get. So 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:16.920 where are you going here? 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:18.960 Yeah, I just think it's really really low for a 0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:21.400 player that, Yeah, you're not looking at Brian Robinson as 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.360 this player that's known for his receiving props per se. 0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:26.880 But he's gone over this number in three of his 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:28.679 last four. When I first got him's at five and 0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:30.360 a half receiving yards. He's gone over that in four 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:33.040 straight games. So he's had at least six receiving yards 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:34.880 in four straight games. So you're feeling pretty good if 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:36.720 you're taking the over at six and a half. And 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:38.360 part of the reason why I was drawn to this 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:41.880 is the projections just have him flying way over this number. 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:43.400 It's just way too low, and I don't think it's 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.880 accounting for the fact that, like you said, Austin Eckler's 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:47.000 not part of this offense. 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:48.920 Like he's on edge reserve, he's not coming back. 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.920 So even if Jerry m McNichols is playing in that 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:54.200 Eckler role, I still think Robinson is good for at 0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:56.400 least one or two screen passes behind the line of scrimmage. 0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:58.880 And what do we know about the Saints. They cannot tackle, 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:00.880 Like they're one of the worst tackling teams. In the end, 0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:03.160 they'll still try to tackle Sean Tucker from Week five 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:06.280 or whatever, that monster game. So Brian Robinson again, he 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:07.559 can get this on the first drive. You get this 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:09.560 on the first play they decide to like dial up 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:11.880 a screen pass form, which they do. Brian Robinson coming 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:14.160 out of Alabama not really known as a receiver, but 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:16.600 for some reason he'd always been kind of like overly 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:19.840 efficient in the receiving game. So I really just I 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:21.600 trust in the projections here. It's not just on VP. 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:24.520 NFL Pro has really good projections as well, and those 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:27.480 have him flying over this number. So without Eckler again, 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:30.080 he's been over six receiving yards in both games without 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.480 Eckler played this season. I think that gets this one 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:33.240 done pretty easily. 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:35.840 I want to throw out that I almost put this 0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:37.360 on my card and I did bet it. So I 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:39.600 talked about like, oh I almost did the under. This 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:41.800 is one that I've got my own sheet, and I 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:43.120 you know these are the bets I'm gonna do, and 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:44.360 here's the ones I put on the show. 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:46.160 I bet this one. I'm with you. 0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:48.400 I also got five and a half, which seems like 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.360 an absolute smash. So this is a definite co sign 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:54.400 here as one that is already on the betting pros 0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:55.280 app under my name. 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:59.280 Yeah. I also put it together with him scoring anytime touchdown, 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:01.160 which is minus three already on the Jews pretty heavy 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:03.920 this week, which feels, you know, probably right. But we 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.960 put that together with this number here, the six and 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:09.520 a half, you get plus one seventy. That's a pretty 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:11.600 good spot to live into. You get that into plus money. 0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:13.640 That seems like a lock there for me. Let's get 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:15.720 to to a tongue Yiloa next. I got a stat 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:19.680 for you, Welsh to his last four games, seventy five 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:24.040 percent completion percentage, thirteen hundred passing yards, eleven touchdowns, no picks, 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:27.560 and a passer rating of one eighteen point five. So, 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:29.560 taking on the Texans this week, how do you want 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:31.560 to approach to a tongue of Biloa? Considering this run 0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:32.080 he's been on. 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:35.280 We are going to take those touchdowns on all those 0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:38.280 stats over those four games. Add one more stat he 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:41.840 has had two touchdowns or more in those four straight 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.400 games he has thrown. So we are going over one 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:47.480 point five on the passing touchdowns the Texans, they have 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:51.400 given up two or more touchdowns in four or five games. 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:54.120 You can't run against the Texans. The Dolphins can move. 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:56.720 They're definitely not that early season's Dolphins where every other 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:58.400 play is a run and we're like, what the hell 0:15:58.480 --> 0:15:58.880 is going on? 0:15:59.120 --> 0:15:59.240 Now? 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.440 They're getting the ball on the air more Tyreek Hill. 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:03.400 I'll tell you I have a Tyreek Hill bet. But 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:05.280 the line moved a little too much. I took him 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:06.800 off of the show. I was going to put the 0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:09.480 receiving yards on this show, but I took it early, 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.080 and it's moved up three or four yards already. And 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:14.120 this is just a really great spot. So two is 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:16.800 hitting this from the passing department. You can pass against 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:18.960 the Texans while not running, So I think that is 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:21.240 what is going to happen. I think there are multiple 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.080 things that align in a great way where Two is 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:26.160 throwing touchdowns, the Texans are giving them up, the Jaalen 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.600 Waddle is finally reconnecting. So give me one point five 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:31.840 over passing touchdowns for two of this week. 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:33.480 I like this one a lot too well because I 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:35.880 think too you look at the Texans, they give up 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:38.720 the highest percentage of passing touchdowns in the NFL. So 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.600 whenever Miami does ultimately score, it's probably going to be 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:43.440 through the air, even. 0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:45.600 If it's a pass to eight Chan or Wattle or 0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:47.080 Tyreek Kill. So this is a really good one. 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:50.200 Or John Oan overtime to screw up your your playoff run, 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:51.680 playoff runt. 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:57.640 No bitterness, none whatsoever. A big market game between the 0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.840 Bills and the Lions. And usually when you're talking about 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:01.760 running backs in the Lions catching the football, we're talking 0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:05.240 abou Jamir Gibbs. But instead we're gonna talk about David Montgomery. 0:17:05.280 --> 0:17:07.680