1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:05,479
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:08,520
Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

3
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:15,080
Speaker 3: Throwing spect We're sitting it to cash touchdown.

4
00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,599
Speaker 4: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

5
00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 4: they go to win.

6
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 5: That's incredible.

7
00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:24,759
Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

8
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:30,440
Speaker 5: All right, this is the ultimate combine if you want to.

9
00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:32,760
Speaker 5: And we are hondaway.

10
00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,600
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Oberk Podcast. I am your host,

11
00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:41,120
Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, and I am joined as always by Brandon

12
00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:45,440
Speaker 2: Anderson for our NFL recap show for week two. We

13
00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,040
Speaker 2: will discuss what we saw today, look ahead to some

14
00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:52,520
Speaker 2: Monday night football stuff, especially two games tomorrow night. Plus

15
00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,760
Speaker 2: we'll get Brandon's hot read for week three, which you

16
00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,720
Speaker 2: just playbooked on x so you will see it there.

17
00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:02,160
Speaker 2: You will see it on this podcast. But hang around.

18
00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,040
Speaker 2: Before we get started with today's games, I'm just gonna

19
00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:08,440
Speaker 2: give you one big stat. You can react to it. Honestly,

20
00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,440
Speaker 2: I started with one big stat and then I came

21
00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:13,800
Speaker 2: up with like six, So that's kind of what ends

22
00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:15,440
Speaker 2: up happening at the end of a week when I'm

23
00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,480
Speaker 2: looking at numbers really quickly. Before this podcast, I'll just

24
00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:24,080
Speaker 2: say this, So Action Network bet Labs, we track public

25
00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:27,440
Speaker 2: tickets and things like that. Now, this is basically every

26
00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,920
Speaker 2: number throughout the week and then whatever that total number

27
00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,560
Speaker 2: is in terms of ATS bets when it closes public

28
00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:36,760
Speaker 2: Right now in the NFL is eight and twenty two

29
00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,479
Speaker 2: against the spread with sixty percent of tickets are more

30
00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:44,520
Speaker 2: there two and thirteen ats, so wild numbers. Minnesota had

31
00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:46,520
Speaker 2: a crazy amount of tickets in the night game, and

32
00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,640
Speaker 2: obviously they did not come through. The other stat which

33
00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,280
Speaker 2: I just tweeted, favorites just on a crazy run. So

34
00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,200
Speaker 2: closing favorites of four points or more so far this

35
00:01:56,280 --> 00:02:00,040
Speaker 2: season twelve and zero straight up, and if you go

36
00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:04,840
Speaker 2: back to week thirteen of last year, they are sixty

37
00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,360
Speaker 2: four and seven in that run. Now that's just four

38
00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,440
Speaker 2: point favorites are higher. So Brandon, I will let you

39
00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:16,000
Speaker 2: react and then we can dive into Falcons and vikings.

40
00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:21,480
Speaker 5: Boy, can't wait to talk about that serious. Yeah, yeah,

41
00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,360
Speaker 5: we have not gotten that big, big upset, you know,

42
00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,280
Speaker 5: that that chakra out of left field, the huge spoiler

43
00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,040
Speaker 5: that throws off the survivor tournaments. Early on, we gotten

44
00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,640
Speaker 5: very close. We've gotten you know, ah, overtime in a

45
00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,720
Speaker 5: couple of leaves and getting closer and closer. But yeah,

46
00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,520
Speaker 5: the favorites are winning and the public is not. And

47
00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,320
Speaker 5: boy Evan, I am not. I am not winning. I

48
00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:45,519
Speaker 5: have not had a great day.

49
00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,880
Speaker 2: I completely understood. So let's get right into the games.

50
00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:54,000
Speaker 2: Let's get through this. Falcons and Viking. So Falcons win

51
00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:57,320
Speaker 2: the game twenty two to six. Total goes under forty

52
00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:59,799
Speaker 2: four and a half. Honestly, my only note that is

53
00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,480
Speaker 2: what is there really to say here? I'll give you

54
00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:04,760
Speaker 2: one or two things and then pass it over to you.

55
00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:08,239
Speaker 2: But Algier gets the first touchdown with three minutes left

56
00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,200
Speaker 2: in the game, which should really tell you everything you

57
00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,560
Speaker 2: need to know about the game. He was eighteen to

58
00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:14,600
Speaker 2: one to get in. Now, listen, if you had a

59
00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:16,880
Speaker 2: one hundred and ninety to one or two hundred to

60
00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:21,359
Speaker 2: one on no touchdown, that brutal because they let him

61
00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:22,920
Speaker 2: in at the end there. I mean, if there's some

62
00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:26,080
Speaker 2: defense or maybe a different type of strategy, possibly you

63
00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:30,160
Speaker 2: get that ticket across b Jean Robinson. Crazy game really

64
00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:32,400
Speaker 2: really good on the ground, which might say something about

65
00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:36,200
Speaker 2: Minnesota's defense, but maybe for your segment, not mine here.

66
00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,280
Speaker 2: And then the other thing is, I guess it's really

67
00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,920
Speaker 2: good from a Kyle Pitt's perspective, looks like he's getting

68
00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:43,800
Speaker 2: a ton of targets. He had a ton of targets

69
00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:45,840
Speaker 2: in week one. Looks like they're looking for him again

70
00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,600
Speaker 2: this week. So maybe something a little bit different there

71
00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:51,280
Speaker 2: where he is, you know, him and Drake London becoming

72
00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:55,520
Speaker 2: a good little one two punch Atlanta in the red zone. Also,

73
00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:57,920
Speaker 2: I don't know did they end up. They scored at

74
00:03:57,960 --> 00:03:59,480
Speaker 2: the end there, so they end up I think one

75
00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,720
Speaker 2: for five, But when one for two last week they

76
00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:06,000
Speaker 2: started the game zero for four, they were twentieth last year,

77
00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:08,520
Speaker 2: I think. Just something to look at. But what did

78
00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,880
Speaker 2: you see here from this debacle of Sunday night football?

79
00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, not a lot of offense to speak of from

80
00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:18,440
Speaker 5: this one. Honestly, I feel like Minnesota's defense obviously they

81
00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,320
Speaker 5: gave up right out of the gates, two big chunk

82
00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,719
Speaker 5: run plays and then Bijon was awesome tonight, Like Bijon

83
00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,440
Speaker 5: for the running backs. Don't matter crowd, this was not

84
00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:29,159
Speaker 5: the game for it. As a Vikings fan, this made

85
00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,240
Speaker 5: me long for the days of Adrian Peterson. Right, you

86
00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:33,880
Speaker 5: just see a running back take over the game on

87
00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,560
Speaker 5: the other side. So Atlanta ran the ball well. They

88
00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,320
Speaker 5: did not run well last week. Over two hundred yards rushing.

89
00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:43,000
Speaker 5: That being said, I thought Minnesota's defense, for what they

90
00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,520
Speaker 5: were asked to do, I thought they did pretty well

91
00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:47,640
Speaker 5: to hold up that well in the red zone, to

92
00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,560
Speaker 5: hold up after two interceptions on the wrong side of

93
00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,680
Speaker 5: the field, a fumble late by McCarthy, like right at

94
00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:55,120
Speaker 5: the end of the third quarter. There you get the

95
00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:57,640
Speaker 5: big stop, you get the short field off of the

96
00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,120
Speaker 5: punt you're setting up McCarthy and and immediately the very

97
00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,320
Speaker 5: next play he gets the stripsack fumble. This defense just

98
00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:06,920
Speaker 5: was backs against the wall of the entire night, and

99
00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:08,839
Speaker 5: I thought they did a pretty good job against Penix.

100
00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,919
Speaker 5: The run defense definitely gave up some plays. But you

101
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:13,800
Speaker 5: hold a team to twenty two, you're gonna expect to

102
00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:15,320
Speaker 5: have a good chance to win at home most of

103
00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:18,080
Speaker 5: the time. Now if you score six, though, if you

104
00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,680
Speaker 5: look at Minnesota obviously we watch this team now two

105
00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,480
Speaker 5: primetime games in a row. Monday night fourth quarter twenty

106
00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,560
Speaker 5: one points for the Vikings. The other seven quarters so

107
00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:32,560
Speaker 5: far this season twelve points, outscored thirty nine to twelve.

108
00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,839
Speaker 5: Two of those or half of those points are field

109
00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,520
Speaker 5: goals that they got on basically like one long play

110
00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:40,800
Speaker 5: right before halftime. That kind of got gift wrapped for them.

111
00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,640
Speaker 5: Like we saw one tonight and one last week as well,

112
00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,880
Speaker 5: under two hundred yards of offense, ten first downs against

113
00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:51,520
Speaker 5: what's supposed to be not a great defense. Obviously, Atlanta

114
00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:53,520
Speaker 5: looks pretty good right now, so maybe that will be

115
00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:57,320
Speaker 5: proven wrong. Jeff Olbreck comes over from the Jets last year.

116
00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,000
Speaker 5: Minnesota is certainly not being helped with just injuries everywhere

117
00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,400
Speaker 5: right now. This is an older team that stayed pretty

118
00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,080
Speaker 5: healthy last year, but they missing a lot of defenders.

119
00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:08,440
Speaker 5: They're missing Darris on the line, and then the center

120
00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,040
Speaker 5: gets hurt again, so now you got a new center

121
00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:16,440
Speaker 5: snapping to your second second start ever McCarthy. McCarthy, I

122
00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:18,960
Speaker 5: don't know how ready he was for this game. He's

123
00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,360
Speaker 5: got his baby a couple of nights ago, So like,

124
00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:23,880
Speaker 5: how ready are you when you're first Because a professional,

125
00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:28,440
Speaker 5: you're getting sacked six times, no protection, two interceptions and

126
00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:30,839
Speaker 5: probably should have had three or four, right A couple

127
00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:34,159
Speaker 5: of those got dropped pretty close there too, So not

128
00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:38,360
Speaker 5: great for McCarthy, not great for Minnesota. The Vikings get

129
00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,360
Speaker 5: Cincinnati next week. We'll come back to Cincinnati, but it's

130
00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,720
Speaker 5: a good chance to bounce back with almost certainly no

131
00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,000
Speaker 5: Joe Burrow in that game, and then two in a

132
00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,640
Speaker 5: row in London, So we're gonna be seeing plenty of

133
00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:50,840
Speaker 5: Minnesota still to come, whether you like it or not.

134
00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:55,000
Speaker 5: Atlanta probably should be two and oh right, they blew

135
00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:58,520
Speaker 5: it a week ago, so they should be sitting pretty

136
00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:00,599
Speaker 5: They have to feel pretty good, I think on the

137
00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:01,880
Speaker 5: sum of the two games so far.

138
00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, my only other notes the Terrell injury

139
00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:09,320
Speaker 2: from Atlanta is something to be monitored. You assume it's

140
00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:12,400
Speaker 2: just something to be out tonight and possibly back in

141
00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,720
Speaker 2: the next game. In terms of the sacks, McCarthy, I mean,

142
00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:17,680
Speaker 2: that was one thing that I was looking at so

143
00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:21,720
Speaker 2: last three seasons, second most from Minnesota behind Darnold's playoff

144
00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:24,600
Speaker 2: game when he got sacked nine times. So I mean,

145
00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,960
Speaker 2: that's seems like it's something that doesn't happen a lot

146
00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:32,360
Speaker 2: in the O'Connell offense, especially his efficiency. But McCarthy, you know,

147
00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:35,520
Speaker 2: seven of eight quarters has looked like one quarterback and

148
00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,240
Speaker 2: then you know another quarter he figured out a win. Uh.

149
00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,360
Speaker 5: Atlanta has been awful at rushing the passer for ages

150
00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:45,880
Speaker 5: and ages. Yeah, correct, They everyone had like a seven

151
00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,320
Speaker 5: sack passer most seasons for a while now, I believe,

152
00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:50,600
Speaker 5: so this was for them to put up this sort

153
00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:52,720
Speaker 5: of pressure. This is a team that drafted a first

154
00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,160
Speaker 5: round pass rusher and then traded next year's first round

155
00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:58,240
Speaker 5: to go get another one, and tonight it looks pretty good.

156
00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,480
Speaker 5: Atlant's feeling pretty good about their trade. From one game

157
00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,480
Speaker 5: so far, we'll see against a team that's not missing

158
00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:05,560
Speaker 5: their left tackle and then late in the game their

159
00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,200
Speaker 5: backup left tackle. But you play who you play, and

160
00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,040
Speaker 5: alas pass rush was getting over and over to Minnesota.

161
00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, it looks like you said, in Minnesota gat Cincinnati

162
00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,640
Speaker 2: next week. That's spread about four and a half. No

163
00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,080
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, which we will talk about in a little bit,

164
00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,600
Speaker 2: but that's spread about four and a half against Jake Browning.

165
00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:25,080
Speaker 2: Also underdogs five and one against the spread and night

166
00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:28,000
Speaker 2: game so far this year. So just something fun there,

167
00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:32,800
Speaker 2: all right, Giants Cowboys boy. I didn't think this was

168
00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:34,959
Speaker 2: going to be the second game we would talk about today,

169
00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,319
Speaker 2: but when you're putting this together as the day kind

170
00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,160
Speaker 2: of develops, it's great to see this game at the

171
00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:42,839
Speaker 2: top of the list. So Dallas does end up beating

172
00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:46,480
Speaker 2: the Giants, forty thirty seven in overtime. The Giants cover

173
00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,760
Speaker 2: every single number. The total sales over forty four and

174
00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:56,440
Speaker 2: a half. I mean from a box score standpoint, I

175
00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:00,000
Speaker 2: mean Russell Wilson four hundred and fifty passing yards. Probably

176
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,839
Speaker 2: he stands out the most career high four fifty two.

177
00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,840
Speaker 2: Back in twenty eighteen. The best note I had was

178
00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:07,960
Speaker 2: a prop was two oh six and a half, so

179
00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:12,960
Speaker 2: you know, more than doubled it. Neighbors absolutely insane, nine

180
00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,680
Speaker 2: to one, sixty seven, thirteen targets, the crazy catch in

181
00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:21,480
Speaker 2: the end zone. Also on PFF, kyer Elam five receptions

182
00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:24,720
Speaker 2: on six targets and a touchdown against him, So absolutely

183
00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:28,480
Speaker 2: barbecue chicken, and honestly the two when I looked at

184
00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:30,440
Speaker 2: it before, the two leaders in terms of Week two

185
00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:32,600
Speaker 2: passing yards came from this game. I mean, this was

186
00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,760
Speaker 2: this game gave you absolutely everything you wanted and also

187
00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:39,800
Speaker 2: gave you twenty six penalties. So it was absolute mess.

188
00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,120
Speaker 2: But what do you make from Giants and Cowboys?

189
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, kind of just a nothing game that probably would

190
00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,520
Speaker 5: have been buried down our list until the fourth quarter started,

191
00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,880
Speaker 5: and then we get five league changes. Just on the

192
00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:54,720
Speaker 5: fourth quarter, we go field goal touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown,

193
00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:58,520
Speaker 5: field goal. That's just the fourth quarter, forty one points.

194
00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,000
Speaker 5: We got three scores. In the final minute, Dallas scores

195
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,320
Speaker 5: a touchdown and like, all right, Dallas gets the win.

196
00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:07,079
Speaker 5: Then the Giants come back and get the bomb over

197
00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,719
Speaker 5: the top touchdown and it seems like they've got the win.

198
00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,599
Speaker 5: And then we get Brandon Aubrey lines up for this

199
00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:16,400
Speaker 5: casual sixty four yarder that is tied for like the

200
00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,160
Speaker 5: third longest field goal in NFL history. He's got two

201
00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:21,199
Speaker 5: two sixty four yarders, he has two of the four

202
00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,320
Speaker 5: longest kicks ever. And he just knocks it through like

203
00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,079
Speaker 5: with plenty of room to go to send us to overtime.

204
00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,840
Speaker 5: And then we get overtime after like no defense can

205
00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:32,319
Speaker 5: make a stop and we get four scoreless drives in

206
00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,640
Speaker 5: a row with one first down. Just hilarious football watching

207
00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,760
Speaker 5: this all play out. I personally had Dallas as my

208
00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,240
Speaker 5: survivor pick for the week, so a real fun time

209
00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:43,400
Speaker 5: for me. I know a lot of people had Dallas.

210
00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,880
Speaker 5: I'm happy to be done with them. Don't need to

211
00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:50,559
Speaker 5: use them again, thank you very much. Yeah, honestly, this

212
00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:54,240
Speaker 5: game had so many points. The total was forty four

213
00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,160
Speaker 5: and a half. I just assumed I must have played

214
00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,280
Speaker 5: the under I like the way my day was going.

215
00:10:58,320 --> 00:10:59,760
Speaker 5: I had to look and make sure there's no ticket

216
00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:03,120
Speaker 5: there almost one thousand yards combined. The Giants are at

217
00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:06,280
Speaker 5: almost eight yards per play for the game and lose.

218
00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,520
Speaker 5: And then you mentioned the penalties. I gotta go off

219
00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:13,400
Speaker 5: in the penalties here twenty six penalties combined for two

220
00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:17,040
Speaker 5: hundred and sixty six yards, Like, this is an absolute

221
00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:21,680
Speaker 5: slop fest. The Giants, in particular, just beyond undisciplined under

222
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:26,720
Speaker 5: Brian Gable. That doesn't include five more declined penalties for

223
00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,960
Speaker 5: fifty one yards. It also doesn't include there's one play

224
00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:32,960
Speaker 5: in this game the Giants get called for too many

225
00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:36,840
Speaker 5: men in the field and defensive pass interference and roughing

226
00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,840
Speaker 5: the passer, and then Ceedee Lamb starts celebrating on his

227
00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:43,240
Speaker 5: butt in the end zone gets called for taunting. So

228
00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:46,840
Speaker 5: there's four penalties on one play that all offset and

229
00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,920
Speaker 5: all go away. So that's four more penalties forty four yards.

230
00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,160
Speaker 5: We're up to nine extra, so thirty five. James Hudson,

231
00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:57,160
Speaker 5: the backup tackle for the Giants, has four penalties on

232
00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:00,319
Speaker 5: one drive in this game. He gets four penalties forty

233
00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,000
Speaker 5: yards on one drive. The Giants get one hundred and

234
00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,680
Speaker 5: ten yards of offense on the drive and settle for

235
00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:10,040
Speaker 5: a thirty seven yard of Fueld goal. Like just beyond ridiculous.

236
00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:14,079
Speaker 5: I saw online since nineteen ninety nine only twenty nine

237
00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,439
Speaker 5: players even had three penalties on a drive. He has four,

238
00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:20,440
Speaker 5: and then he gets benched, but then the backup backup

239
00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:22,600
Speaker 5: is so bad that he gets put back in later

240
00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:25,880
Speaker 5: and Russ is just chucking it deep. No defense to

241
00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,480
Speaker 5: be found. This to me is not like oh Man

242
00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:33,440
Speaker 5: Russ's back. Now, Dallas's defense we thought was gonna be

243
00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,720
Speaker 5: pretty bad without Micah Parsons. Dallas's defense might be even

244
00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,480
Speaker 5: worse than we thought. And by the way we're gonna

245
00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,680
Speaker 5: talk about the Eagles shortly, probably not great that the

246
00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,560
Speaker 5: Giants can carve up this defense and the Eagles could

247
00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:48,880
Speaker 5: not a week ago passing wise. So I think kind

248
00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 5: of looking at some of the juxtapositions between these two

249
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,880
Speaker 5: games two weeks is pretty interesting too.

250
00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the takeaway like if I'm trying to

251
00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,120
Speaker 2: look at this game, watching almost all of it, and saying,

252
00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,080
Speaker 2: what do I want to learn going forward? Dallas is

253
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,840
Speaker 2: super lucky to not be zero to two at this point.

254
00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:09,240
Speaker 2: They definitely should have lost this game at certain points,

255
00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,280
Speaker 2: and I think there'd be a lot a very different

256
00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:13,840
Speaker 2: conversation of what's going on there, and the fact that

257
00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,320
Speaker 2: you're right with the Eagles comparison, because Jalen Hurts in

258
00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,920
Speaker 2: his two games, I think is still like one hundred

259
00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:23,680
Speaker 2: yards behind Russell Wilson in this game in terms of

260
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,800
Speaker 2: a comparison, So I think you know that there, and

261
00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:30,040
Speaker 2: in terms of going forward, I think the undisciplined nature

262
00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:34,000
Speaker 2: of the Giants in this game should impact their game

263
00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,720
Speaker 2: against the Chiefs next week, not just because the Chiefs

264
00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:38,719
Speaker 2: are trying to avoid own three in all sorts of

265
00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:42,040
Speaker 2: different narratives in that point, but usually in that scenario,

266
00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:45,120
Speaker 2: the Chiefs would take advantage of that. So we will

267
00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:50,200
Speaker 2: see how that looks all right. Next game Jaguars Bengals.

268
00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:56,439
Speaker 2: So Cincinnati beats Jacksonville thirty one point twenty seven. Cincinnati

269
00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,400
Speaker 2: was actually minus five and a half on the look ahead,

270
00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,280
Speaker 2: went to three and a half most of the week,

271
00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,920
Speaker 2: so end up getting the cover. Terrible, terrible beat for

272
00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,599
Speaker 2: most people with Jacksonville who led for a majority of

273
00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:10,960
Speaker 2: this game. Total over forty nine and a half. The

274
00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:15,200
Speaker 2: storyline is obviously Joe Burrow hurt mid second quarter left

275
00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:19,880
Speaker 2: toe ends up being turf toe toward ligaments. So we

276
00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,640
Speaker 2: don't exactly know a timetable here. We're hearing, you know,

277
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:27,880
Speaker 2: definitely out this coming week. He could have surgery, which

278
00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,240
Speaker 2: would be months. He could try to play through it.

279
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:32,200
Speaker 2: I think we're just kind of waiting. I think the

280
00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,920
Speaker 2: most important thing, which you're a future's guy, I want

281
00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,160
Speaker 2: your opinion right away after I tell you this. At

282
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:43,440
Speaker 2: Minnesota at Denver versus Detroit at Green Bay seems absolutely

283
00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:46,480
Speaker 2: disgustingly brutal. What's your thought on the Bengals going forward?

284
00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:51,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think even if the Bengals were healthy, we

285
00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,520
Speaker 5: should look at them and say, okay, you should have

286
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,000
Speaker 5: lost this game. They literally didn't take the lead until

287
00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,520
Speaker 5: like ten seconds left when they found that jump over

288
00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:01,120
Speaker 5: into the end zone. They should have lost. Last week,

289
00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:03,680
Speaker 5: the Browns outplayed them. They were terrible against the Browns

290
00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,480
Speaker 5: last week. And we don't really know if the Browns

291
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,720
Speaker 5: are oh and two the Jaguars and we don't really

292
00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:10,840
Speaker 5: know if they're good yet. The Bengals really should be

293
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,160
Speaker 5: zero and two right now. They're two to zero. So maybe,

294
00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,320
Speaker 5: if you want to be the optimist on Cincinnati, maybe

295
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,640
Speaker 5: they finally flipped the script from the last few years.

296
00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:23,520
Speaker 5: Maybe they accidentally lucked into these ugly wins early and

297
00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,160
Speaker 5: didn't dig a hole, and now the injuries are going

298
00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:27,640
Speaker 5: to be the hole and then they can kind of

299
00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:29,800
Speaker 5: rebound and be the hot team late. Maybe that's the

300
00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:34,440
Speaker 5: upside is they got these leads, but Jacksonville late in

301
00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:36,840
Speaker 5: the game. Just a couple thoughts on the game itself.

302
00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:41,480
Speaker 5: Jacksonville's on something like fourth and three in the red zone,

303
00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,400
Speaker 5: up three points and they go for it, And I

304
00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:47,680
Speaker 5: actually love the decision there. If you're up three, this

305
00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,360
Speaker 5: is like, with maybe a few minutes left, you kind

306
00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,040
Speaker 5: of don't want to go up six. Actually, if you're

307
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:55,600
Speaker 5: up three and you stay up three, then the other

308
00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:57,800
Speaker 5: team might be a little conservative and settle for the

309
00:15:57,840 --> 00:15:59,600
Speaker 5: fueld goal. If you go up six, they have to

310
00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,680
Speaker 5: go were the touchdown and if they get it, they

311
00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:04,960
Speaker 5: beat you, Whereas they might settle for a field goal

312
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,120
Speaker 5: and you can another shy in overtime that way, Plus

313
00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,720
Speaker 5: you might just pick up the first down. So I

314
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,440
Speaker 5: like the call. They didn't get it. Trevor Lawrence not

315
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:14,760
Speaker 5: great in this game. Not not a lot of great

316
00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,600
Speaker 5: quarterback play in this game, to be honest, browning through

317
00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:22,720
Speaker 5: three interceptions. Lawrence had two interceptions. Did not look sharp.

318
00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:27,160
Speaker 5: If you're Jacksonville, Howard Parker, Washington and Diami Brown, you're

319
00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,360
Speaker 5: leading receivers they have five catches each. You have Travis

320
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,760
Speaker 5: Hunter and Brian Thomas Junior who had four catches on

321
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 5: twelve targets and is not looking great. We had some

322
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:41,080
Speaker 5: clips of Lawrence and Liam cohen Ken of some rough

323
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,720
Speaker 5: body language, some not great signs here for a team

324
00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 5: that really should be two to zero. So we'll see.

325
00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 5: With Jacksonville back to Sincy. I have the schedule as well,

326
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,720
Speaker 5: at Minnesota, at Denver, Detroit, at green Bay, Pittsburgh late

327
00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,320
Speaker 5: in the season, they still go Baltimore, Buffalo, Baltimore and

328
00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,880
Speaker 5: back to back to back weeks. Also, that's waiting even

329
00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,600
Speaker 5: if Burrow is back then, which that's about the timeframe

330
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,200
Speaker 5: you know we're looking at based on what we've seen.

331
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,360
Speaker 5: I think Ian Rappaport said that most likely for now

332
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,560
Speaker 5: looks like maybe four weeks and if he has a surgery,

333
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,800
Speaker 5: which is what everyone seems to be thinking at this

334
00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,720
Speaker 5: moment from what we've seen all speculation, But if he

335
00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,600
Speaker 5: has a surgery, it looks like twelve weeks, so three

336
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,760
Speaker 5: months basically, and you come back for the last few

337
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,680
Speaker 5: weeks in the playoffs. Well, I don't think you're coming

338
00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 5: back for the last weeks in the playoffs, because I

339
00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 5: don't think you're in the hunt with Jake Browning and

340
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,760
Speaker 5: this team. Because here's where this does. Here's where I

341
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:38,159
Speaker 5: go if I take out Joe Burrow and put in

342
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,320
Speaker 5: Jake Browning. So I got my roster matrix, I got

343
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:45,040
Speaker 5: everything lined up at the Bengals with Burrow healthy as

344
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,560
Speaker 5: the number eight offense. Now I'm a little low on them.

345
00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,640
Speaker 5: Most people out there have had them top five. They're

346
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,080
Speaker 5: number eight for me in part because the offensive line

347
00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:56,359
Speaker 5: is so bad. Okay, well, the backup quarterback with an

348
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 5: offensive line isn't even worse. Problem. So if I go

349
00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:03,119
Speaker 5: Burn to Browning, they drop from the number eight offense

350
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,359
Speaker 5: to the number twenty six offense in my ratings, so

351
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:10,040
Speaker 5: basically top ten to bottom ten. That is a massive

352
00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 5: fall off. They obviously are already not a good defense.

353
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,120
Speaker 5: They're twenty eighth in my defensive ratings. That honestly might

354
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,560
Speaker 5: be kind. Here's kind of what that does to them.

355
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:24,160
Speaker 5: Before the injury, I basically have them like Washington Arizona Range.

356
00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,040
Speaker 5: That's sort of the team they were before. Now they

357
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:30,200
Speaker 5: moved to something like the Tennessee Titans. That's the sort

358
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,879
Speaker 5: of downgrade we're looking at overall in a profile of

359
00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:38,120
Speaker 5: the team, and in the AFC, we already knew that's

360
00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 5: kind of hard to find. Who are wild cards in

361
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:41,720
Speaker 5: the AFC? Who are the locks in the AFC? The

362
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:43,679
Speaker 5: Chiefs are zero and two. We'll get to them next,

363
00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,479
Speaker 5: but we know the Ravens and the Bills are probably in.

364
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:49,920
Speaker 5: Is there any other lock? We have two teams out

365
00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,960
Speaker 5: of seven, so the AFC might be more open than ever.

366
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 5: So for Bengals, that's good because maybe you can just

367
00:18:56,480 --> 00:19:00,920
Speaker 5: hang around somehow, Like this upcoming stretch, you're two and zero,

368
00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 5: you get to three and two, I think I call

369
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,080
Speaker 5: that pretty good against the stretch, can you get to

370
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 5: four and three? I feel pretty comfortable with that if

371
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:13,560
Speaker 5: I'm a Bengals fan. Given Jake Browning. So it's not

372
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,359
Speaker 5: a great setup. Like if you're looking at a team

373
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,399
Speaker 5: with the twenty six offense, twenty eighth defense, those are

374
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 5: bottom ten at both. That's not a playoff team. That's

375
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 5: not a team that you want to invest in. If

376
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 5: you're a fantasy football player, you spent high draft capital

377
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 5: on any of the skill players, that's not great. If

378
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,760
Speaker 5: you don't have blocking or quarterback. You spent number one

379
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,200
Speaker 5: overall in Jamar Chase, who what a monster game today.

380
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 5: I don't want any part of this Cincinnati thing going

381
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 5: forward if it looks like Burrow is long term, and frankly,

382
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:47,120
Speaker 5: we've seen Burrow play through injury and not look great

383
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 5: that way either, So I'm not gonna over panic here,

384
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,720
Speaker 5: and we don't know enough about the injury. I think

385
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,640
Speaker 5: there's a very real, too maybe good chance that this

386
00:19:57,720 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 5: is effectively the beginning of the end for the season

387
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 5: the Bengals, and I want no part of their futures.

388
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:07,160
Speaker 5: I looked already multiple times for a misplayoffs ticket at

389
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 5: two and zero. I know they're going to factor the

390
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 5: Barrow thing in there, but I'm always pretty happy to

391
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,360
Speaker 5: have a mis playoffs ticket on a bottom five defense

392
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,400
Speaker 5: with bad blocking and bad coaching and now maybe bad

393
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 5: quarterback play too. Sign me up for that ticket.

394
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 2: So this is why I like doing the podcast with you,

395
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 2: because I feel like you and I tend to think

396
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 2: about things a little bit differently. So you had the

397
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 2: futures outlook you kind of and I agreed with almost

398
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 2: everything you said because I think when you look at

399
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 2: it like no, because when I think you look at

400
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 2: it like that, I don't think you can invest I

401
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:41,360
Speaker 2: don't think there's anything to invest in, except I think

402
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,439
Speaker 2: there's an interesting thing to invest in from game to

403
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,400
Speaker 2: game if they're going to be getting points as an underdog,

404
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,400
Speaker 2: because I think the drop off when you look at

405
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 2: other backup quarterbacks just isn't as far. So just some

406
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 2: simple data and I like success right because there's some

407
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: yardage stats, and I think it's just an easy way

408
00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 2: to kind of look at things. So since twenty twenty three,

409
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,160
Speaker 2: Borrow's sixth in the NFL and success rate, you've got

410
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:07,359
Speaker 2: sixty seven quarterbacks with one hundred plus plays, sixty seven quarterbacks,

411
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 2: Browning is twenty. First you look at air yards, Burrow's

412
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 2: seven point zero in that span, Browning is six point three. Now,

413
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 2: one thing I looked at which I thought was interesting

414
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,159
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three when he played a lot Jake Browning.

415
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 2: When Cincinnati trailed Browning sixty nine percent completion percentage, seven

416
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:28,960
Speaker 2: point nine yards per attempt, six touchdowns, four picks, not terrible.

417
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:31,919
Speaker 2: And today I was looking at now this is before

418
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 2: tonight's game. I didn't get a chance to update it.

419
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 2: But Browning had the quickest time to throw any quarterback

420
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:39,919
Speaker 2: in the NFL, so he was getting it out. He

421
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,360
Speaker 2: understood the situation. Now there's some bad things here as well.

422
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:47,399
Speaker 2: So he did throw three picks today, which not great.

423
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,439
Speaker 2: And Cincinnati found a way to win the game with

424
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 2: the three interceptions. Very Cincinnati like. But I'll say one

425
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 2: more other thing, Zach Taylor. So we know Joe Burrow's good.

426
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow's good. He's forty five thirty two to one

427
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 2: straight up with Joe a quarterback. Without Joe, he's eight

428
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 2: and twenty two. Now he's four and three with Jake Browning.

429
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 2: I think that's just, you know, let's play mediocre, see

430
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,399
Speaker 2: what we get depending on what the opponent is. But

431
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 2: I think the real number is I don't like Zach Taylor,

432
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 2: and eight and twenty two I think is who he is.

433
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 2: So I think game to game, I agree with you

434
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 2: from a Cincinnati point of view, but I think there

435
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 2: could be a backdoor or two, and I think they're

436
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 2: not as awful as another backup might be. That's my point.

437
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say the hope for Cincinnati that I

438
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 5: am watching out for with Joe Burrow, you know, we

439
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 5: talk about where does he fit among the elite quarterbacks?

440
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 5: Is he fourth? Is he in that top four? Is

441
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 5: it a top three? And he's in the next group.

442
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 5: One of the big criticisms with Burrow is that he

443
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 5: invites the sacks, he invites the pressure, and that's a

444
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 5: little bit his problem, not just the offensive line sacks

445
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 5: a our quarterback stat and also that, as much as

446
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 5: we have criticized, rightfully so over the years, that Sincinnanty's

447
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 5: offense doesn't have a lot of createdivity, not a lot

448
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 5: of motion, lots of shotgun that's how Joe Burrow seems

449
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 5: to want to play. And one thing that happened last

450
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 5: time when Burrow is out for an extended time is

451
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 5: Cincinnati actually looked like a little bit more modern offense

452
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:18,639
Speaker 5: with the backup quarterback in. And so maybe that's the

453
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 5: upside is you get a worse quarterback by talent, but

454
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 5: could the worst quarterback be able to maybe slightly elevate

455
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 5: the offensive line by not taking the sacks, could they elevate?

456
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 5: You know, in my system, the offensive Cordner is a

457
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 5: force multiplayer. Could the offensive coordinator grade go up for

458
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,880
Speaker 5: the Bengals not down? Because they can do a few

459
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 5: more creative things and it's not just Burrow ball all

460
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 5: the time. Kind of think of it as differently. But

461
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 5: the way we've seen Aaron Rodgers how he just wants

462
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 5: to play Aaron Rodgers ball. This is what I'm gonna

463
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 5: call what I'm gonna do. And then Matt Lafleur moves

464
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 5: on to the next guy and turns out he can

465
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 5: do some other things after that, because it's not just

466
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 5: the way Rogers wanted it. So I think that's the

467
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 5: upside If the Bengals do play well, I think it's

468
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,880
Speaker 5: because Browning and the whole system gets a little bit

469
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 5: different and find some advantages. But I think the case

470
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 5: is going to be, well, they're two to zero, can't

471
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,120
Speaker 5: they just play like five hundred dish ball the rest

472
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaker 5: of the way and maybe they'll be fine. I think

473
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 5: they were a five hundred team anyway, Like that's what

474
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 5: this team has been already. So if that's what they were,

475
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 5: and now the quarterback is worse. I can't talk myself

476
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,439
Speaker 5: into five hundred ball, So I'm I'm willing to watch

477
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 5: about the browning upside offensive thing, a little ewing theory

478
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 5: perhaps on the team. But Burrow is really good, man.

479
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 5: And you know, if Lamar or Josh or Patrick Mahomes

480
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 5: went out, we would think the season was over. And

481
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 5: if that's what we're putting Burrow in that group of players,

482
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 5: and if his season is mostly over as well, I

483
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 5: think we can have to treat them similarly. Well, like

484
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 5: you said, if they're the Titans, I think you know

485
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 5: what we're dealing with. All right, let's go to our

486
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 5: next clip. Let's go to our next game here, Eagles

487
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 5: and Chiefs. This one snuck in here just purely based

488
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:06,919
Speaker 5: on reputation, because if you would have looked at the

489
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 5: box score, wasn't exactly what we kind of wanted, nor

490
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 5: even some of the fireworks of the Super Bowl. But

491
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:18,119
Speaker 5: Philly beats Casey twenty seventeen, covers every number total under

492
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 5: forty six and a half.

493
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 2: I mean, both of these teams just yuck. That's really

494
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 2: the first thing I wrote here. I mean, when you

495
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,679
Speaker 2: looked at the box score halfway through this game, it

496
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 2: just looked like Philly was doing a little bit better

497
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 2: in a bunch of areas, except for the fact that

498
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 2: I think when you look at the box score from

499
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 2: a Philly point of view week to week, you can't

500
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 2: ever look at Jalen Hurtz's passing numbers and try to

501
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 2: correlate that to how they're doing as a team, because

502
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 2: it just kind of doesn't matter. It's the way they

503
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 2: matriculate the bowl. Downfield running, it's kind of what they

504
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 2: do on defense. It's a field position game. So I

505
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,679
Speaker 2: think based off of everything you saw in the box score,

506
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 2: I'll just give you what give you this stat and

507
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:03,879
Speaker 2: then pass it off to you. It's just Hurts his

508
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 2: twelfth career game where he's had under one hundred and

509
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 2: thirty passing yards. Philly is seven and five in those games.

510
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 2: It's just the way they play football. So kind of

511
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 2: tell me what you saw here.

512
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's the way they play football, and it makes

513
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 5: me worried. Honestly, I'm gonna say something that's gonna sound crazy.

514
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:22,880
Speaker 5: I know the Eagles won the game. I know they're

515
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 5: two to zero and the Chiefs are zero and two.

516
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 5: I honestly am more worried about the Eagles after this

517
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 5: game than I am about the Chiefs. The Chiefs are fine.

518
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 5: I only the Chiefs are necessarily great. I'm not super

519
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 5: excited about the Chiefs. I'm not looking to invest in them.

520
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 5: They're on and two. They got the Giants next on

521
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 5: Sunday Night. We'll come back to that one. They still

522
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 5: play the Ravens and the Lions the next month. If

523
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 5: the Chargers lose Monday Night, the Chiefs are only one

524
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 5: back in the division. I think the one seed maybe

525
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 5: has gotten away already. I think notably Mahomes probably MVP

526
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 5: ticket is not dead, but certainly not great. And Joe

527
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 5: Burrow's MVP ticket is probably dead. That's two of the

528
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 5: top four, so we may have to relook already at

529
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 5: the MVP race if you're taking two guys mostly out

530
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 5: of the mix. But the Eagles to me are bigger story.

531
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,919
Speaker 5: Eagles put up two hundred and sixteen yards in this

532
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 5: game against the Chiefs. That let's recall we watched in

533
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 5: Brazil justin Herbert do anything he wanted to that defense.

534
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 5: He had dudes open all night long. And then we

535
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 5: saw the team that the Eagles played, the Cowboys play

536
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 5: the Giants and Russell Wilson shred that defense and repeatedly

537
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 5: attack them. But Hurts, I don't know if it's him

538
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 5: or if it's the Kevin Patiola offense new offensive coordinator.

539
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 5: I don't know which one it is, But whoever it is,

540
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 5: they're unwilling to attack two secondaries that have been very

541
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 5: beatable in their other games so far. This team is

542
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 5: run heavier than ever and not like overly efficient in

543
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 5: their run game. They're not terrible, but it's not like, oh,

544
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 5: we're just so far ahead and we are so good

545
00:27:58,040 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 5: running that we don't even have to do anything else.

546
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 5: That's not the case. They nearly lost both of the games,

547
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 5: and the running has been fined Saquon, But do you

548
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 5: have like twenty two carries eighty eight yards? That's all right?

549
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 5: You win with passing this league. Jalen Hurts had a

550
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 5: negative point two two EPA per play on twenty six

551
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 5: passing downs, negative six EPA total thirty one percent success rate.

552
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 5: That's not going to cut it, and that is not

553
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 5: good enough. In this game, the Chiefs missed the field goal.

554
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 5: Travis Kelce drops a ball almost near the end zone

555
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 5: that turns into interception. Maybe Kelsey just washed. Maybe the

556
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 5: Chiefs are washed. That's three points off the board, maybe seven,

557
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 5: and maybe the Chiefs win. If not for that play,

558
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 5: I'm not so worried about the Chiefs. The Eagles could

559
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 5: very easily be zero and two. And this offense looks

560
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 5: not broken, but certainly not fixed. And I think the

561
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 5: Eagles offense should be very concerned. Up next they play

562
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 5: Rams Bocks Broncos, so they've got some real tests coming,

563
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 5: and I think public perception will just be like, well

564
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 5: it super Bowl champs, tush Bush, you know, we got

565
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 5: it done. Like that can't be the only thing you're

566
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 5: good on offense. Is just like if by some miracle

567
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 5: we get it to within two yards of the first down,

568
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 5: we'll just rugby ball for a while, and like the

569
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 5: cameras are catching where we're like false starting on half

570
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 5: of these Anyways, I don't know what the refs are

571
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 5: doing out here. They can't be the only thing you

572
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 5: have to do more than tush push to win football.

573
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 5: And I think both of these teams have to feel worried.

574
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 5: But I'd be more worried about the Eagles personally.

575
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I mean, you'll talk about Casey Giants later.

576
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 2: I kind of want to fade both of these teams

577
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 2: next week, But I do believe that the four and

578
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,479
Speaker 2: a half, which is what the Rams are getting in

579
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 2: Philadelphia next week, is very intriguing considering. I believe everything

580
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 2: we've seen from the Rams has been very solid so far.

581
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 2: You know what you're gonna get. Stafford's played like that,

582
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 2: McVeigh has done everything he's given the ball to. You know,

583
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 2: both like, everything feels exactly what you've seen from LA

584
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 2: so this year. And they took care of business in

585
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: Tennessee today and as they usually do on these coast,

586
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 2: playing very well. I just I like everything I'm seeing

587
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 2: from LA Forget the record for a second, it's just

588
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 2: what you're seeing on the field. So I think it

589
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 2: kind of bleeds over into next week. And you mentioned

590
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 2: the Kelsey. I think it's worth noting. Jesse Newell on

591
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 2: Twitter tweeted this out. But fifty three percent, which is

592
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 2: the expected win probability before the interception, to twenty four

593
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 2: percent for Kansas City. It was the biggest shift of

594
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 2: the game, and honestly it was the entire game. Like,

595
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 2: I think the game potentially goes the other way without

596
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 2: that interception, so a bit unlucky there, but I had

597
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 2: Philly in the game. I felt like Casey's injuries to

598
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 2: the wide receivers and the lack of weapons ended up

599
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 2: being the reason I kind of liked Philly. I didn't

600
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 2: think there was going to be enough offense on that

601
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: side of the ball. I think they were just going

602
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 2: to lack points in the end in the final score,

603
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 2: and it turned out to be just one play as

604
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 2: the difference. But in terms of next week they I

605
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 2: think the matchup with the Rams is probably the more

606
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 2: intriguing one to me, and I think the four and

607
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 2: a half is something I would look at all right,

608
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 2: the NFL season is officially underway. If you don't already

609
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 2: have the award winning Action Network app, it's time you

610
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 2: download it now and get to the most out of

611
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 2: the app. You'll want to be an Action Pro subscriber

612
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 2: because only Pro subscribers get real time pick alerts from

613
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 2: experts like Brandon Anderson, myself, our entire Action Hour team.

614
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 2: Plus you can access our pro projections powered by Sean

615
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 2: Kerner and our predictive analytics team. To celebrate football's return,

616
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 2: we've got a special offer. Just go to actionowork dot

617
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 2: com slash pro get twenty dollars off the annual price

618
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 2: with the promo code Pod twenty Pod twenty. So don't

619
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 2: miss out on the best bets at the best prices.

620
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 2: Visit actionwork dot com slash pro use promo code Pod

621
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 2: twenty get twenty dollars off a year of action pro.

622
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 2: We actually tweeted this out today speaking of Action Pro

623
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 2: that all the signals were on the Patriots. That was

624
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 2: an absolutely incredible game. We'll talk about that in a

625
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 2: few minutes, but just absolutely crazy. So with New England

626
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 2: and Miami, New England beats them thirty three to twenty seven.

627
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 2: They cover every number as an underdog, total goes over

628
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 2: forty three and a half. To me, the storyline here

629
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 2: is the Dolphins defense over the last two weeks, allowing

630
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 2: sixty six points to India and New England. They just

631
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 2: look like an absolute mess, I believe right now it's

632
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 2: second most just to Chicago, which obviously with Detroit scoring

633
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 2: fifty points a little bit skewed, but also to me,

634
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 2: New England's issues in the red zone creeping up again

635
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 2: finishing one for three. They went three for four today,

636
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: so completely flipped around and again that's the issue. It's

637
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: Miami's defense. So I mean, what did you see here

638
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 2: in this game that you think you can take away

639
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 2: to future weeks.

640
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, this was kind of like almost Giants Cowboys light

641
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 5: to this game. There's no defense to be found. Honestly,

642
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 5: I can't come away too impressed with the Patriots defense

643
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 5: either unit that I was pretty high on before the season,

644
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 5: and neither team could really do much here. Another very

645
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 5: sloppy game. Twenty two penalties, one hundred and forty yards combined.

646
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 5: The Patriots scored two quick touchdowns and missed both extra

647
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 5: points with their new kicker, just like mistakes all over

648
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 5: the place. You mentioned Miami's defense. They allowed to score

649
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 5: on their first ten drives of the season. Their first

650
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 5: quote stop was that they happened to run into halftime

651
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 5: and the Patriots had a one play kneel down drive,

652
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 5: so that was their stop. They did get a couple

653
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 5: stops after the break, but it just doesn't feel like

654
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 5: either of these defenses have done much yet. Tua again

655
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 5: another pretty bad game, five sacks. They're missing their right

656
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 5: guard and the right tackle, and he's not getting the

657
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 5: ball out quite as quick anymore because teams are scheming

658
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 5: away some of the quick stuff, so he just can't

659
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 5: get the ball out. They got no line right now,

660
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 5: and they play Thursday against Buffalo, which, by the way,

661
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,760
Speaker 5: after Thursday, they get eleven days off till a Monday

662
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 5: night game against the Jets. Just saying we might be

663
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 5: in for an early Mike McDaniel funeral here if this

664
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 5: goes as badly as it looks, they're like twelve and

665
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 5: a half point underdogs. If it gets away and we

666
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:24,240
Speaker 5: get like the Lions and Bears sort of game effect

667
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 5: from today on a national TV game, I don't know,

668
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 5: that could be the spot early to pull the plug.

669
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,359
Speaker 5: We know he was the leader there as far as

670
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 5: first coach fired odds A fun stat from this one,

671
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 5: so the Dolphins I believe took the leader at least.

672
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 5: I closed the gap with a punt return touchdown Malik

673
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 5: Washington seventy four yards, and then immediately the next play

674
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 5: the Patriots go ninety yards Antonio Gibson on a kickoff

675
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 5: return touchdown. First time we've had back to back punt

676
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 5: return kickoff return touchdowns on back to back plays since

677
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 5: September nineteen ninety two. And check out these names the

678
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 5: returners are Desmin Howard and Dion sanders Man. What a

679
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 5: day like two of the greatest returners of our lives.

680
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 5: We got to watch those guys back to back. This

681
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 5: one not quite as memorable, So I don't feel great

682
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 5: about either team. As a guy that was in on

683
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 5: the Patriots before the season, I can't say I'm excited.

684
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:22,879
Speaker 5: But they had to have this one and they got

685
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 5: over the line, got the job done. So Miami not

686
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 5: looking great going forward and it might get uglier still.

687
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a loser leaves the house type of game.

688
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 2: I was watching it and said to myself, like, whoever

689
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 2: doesn't come away with this game, now, it could be

690
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 2: a mistake. This game was a real sloppy one all

691
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,280
Speaker 2: over the place, like you said, especially from a defensive side.

692
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 2: But Miami I felt like kind of had to have

693
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 2: it more or less, especially with Buffalo on deck, that

694
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 2: they were just destined to probably not win that Buffalo game,

695
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 2: and losing that New England one, I feel like just

696
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 2: starts them in a spiral. And again you mentioned it,

697
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 2: but the Gibson punt return the biggest win percentage flip

698
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 2: in the game by far, so at that point it

699
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 2: felt like Miami didn't have enough possessions to get back.

700
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 2: But you know, two is five sacks, still three hundred

701
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 2: and fifteen yards, only six incompletions a little too alike,

702
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 2: but the sacks and the pick kind of took them in.

703
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 2: So ready to keep rolling.

704
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, Tyreekat, I believe his first thirty plus yard play

705
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 5: in over a calendar year. But just one. We'll see

706
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 5: if there's any more where that came from. But I

707
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 5: think that's a pretty good bramer of how bad it's

708
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 5: gotten in Miami.

709
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, we'll be trailing against Buffalo next week, so

710
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 2: maybe some more opportunities there. All right, Seattle and Pittsburgh

711
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 2: is our next game. So Seattle ends up beating Pittsburgh

712
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:44,879
Speaker 2: thirty one seventeen. They cover as three and a half

713
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 2: point dogs total over forty and a half. So I

714
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:51,839
Speaker 2: kind of noted this, and I don't know necessarily if

715
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 2: it's the right way to frame it, but Pittsburgh didn't

716
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 2: cover the first quarter spread in this game. I believe

717
00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 2: trailed seven six then now five and fifteen for quarter

718
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 2: ats since it started last year. So just a team

719
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 2: under Tomlin right now that I think has struggled offensively

720
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 2: aside from that Week one game, and I think with

721
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:14,280
Speaker 2: that are just falling behind early. So it's definitely something

722
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,240
Speaker 2: to note going forward there in New England next week.

723
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 2: So in terms of Pittsburgh, that's what I saw early. Obviously,

724
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 2: DK Metcalf revenge time, so they made sure to give

725
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 2: him the lob in the end zone, which got him

726
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 2: his touchdown. But from Seattle's point of view, I was

727
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 2: looking at the carries of Sharbon a versus Walker, as

728
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 2: I believe at the end of the first half of

729
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 2: the twenty one to ten running back split in terms

730
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 2: of snaps, and then even by the end of the game,

731
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 2: Sharbon and I had a few more carries than Walker,

732
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 2: So I think we're really starting to see a turn

733
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 2: there from Seattle's side of the ball. But what do

734
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 2: you make of this game? It just seemed like to

735
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,360
Speaker 2: me that Donald made a few more plays.

736
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, Donald made a few more plays, but really not

737
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 5: sparkling quarterback play from either team here. I saw some

738
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,840
Speaker 5: talk last week what Aaron Rodgers a maybe sneaky MVP candidate.

739
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 5: Now I think this is who Aaron Rodgers is now.

740
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,360
Speaker 5: This game minus seven completion over expected, minus point nineteen

741
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 5: EPA per play. Not an MVP guy, so darnold honestly

742
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 5: not a whole lot better. Two picks, two sacks, some

743
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 5: ugly plays in there. Seattle's defense is who won the game.

744
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 2: Here.

745
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 5: My main note on this game is that we our

746
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 5: first hot rate of the year was the under on

747
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 5: this game, and we got it before the forty and

748
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 5: a half, so we would have gone it. But we

749
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:34,799
Speaker 5: lost in the most ridiculous way possible, which is that

750
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 5: Seattle kicks it off and Caleb Johnson, the rookie running back,

751
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 5: kind of reaches up over his head. It literally hits

752
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,839
Speaker 5: his hand, So, buddy, it's a live ball, even if

753
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 5: you don't know the kickoff roles from college the NFL,

754
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 5: but either way, kickoffs are alive. As soon as you

755
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 5: kick it off, anyone can recover. That's why onside kicks work.

756
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 5: So it bounces over his head, Roles looking like he's

757
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 5: gonna roll right out the end zone, which I assume

758
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 5: is just a touchback at that point. Somehow it just

759
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 5: stops like two feet from the end zone, and then

760
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 5: Seattle comes flying down the field and that get did

761
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,760
Speaker 5: not recover the football. He like flew on the ball,

762
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 5: landed on the balls, the ball pops out and the

763
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,919
Speaker 5: Refereegeus signals touchdown for Seattle. That's literally like the player

764
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 5: used to run in Madden, like the glitch cheat code

765
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 5: that you could like kick it down the sideline and

766
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 5: go do the recovery. Seattle's gets a freebe touchdown out

767
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 5: of it. That blows the under The reality is Seattle

768
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 5: deserve this win, this mutro margin, though they were the

769
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 5: much better team the yardage, yards per play, first downs,

770
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 5: their defense was much better, really good Mike McDonald defense here.

771
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:40,399
Speaker 5: But that ridiculous touchdown to me is my story from

772
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 5: this game.

773
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely the game changing play, I think from Pittsburgh's

774
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 2: point of view, which just makes the whole situation so

775
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 2: much harder on Aaron's the fact that they can't figure

776
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 2: out a run game whatsoever. Twenty to fifty three against

777
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,800
Speaker 2: the Jets, twenty one to seventy two against Seattle. I

778
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:56,720
Speaker 2: think at some point they're going to have to figure

779
00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:01,479
Speaker 2: out something between Warren and Gainwell and Caleb Johnson keeps

780
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 2: making mistakes and it's just they got to figure out

781
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 2: something there or there's just gonna be too much pressure.

782
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:07,879
Speaker 2: So that was my first note, And then I'll give

783
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 2: you this before we move on. Pittsburgh's first two games

784
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 2: go over the total for the first time since twenty eighteen.

785
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 2: Very untomlin like to be on that front, and Pittsburgh

786
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 2: gets oh to two against the spread. They play in

787
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 2: New England next week. They haven't started own three ats

788
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 2: since twenty thirteen, so we will see what happens there.

789
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 2: You're ready to keep rolling, that's all all right? So

790
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 2: Denver and Indy, Uh, Indy wins twenty nine twenty eight

791
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: What a weird, wild, crazy game. Uh, that is just

792
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,439
Speaker 2: exactly what bo Nicks and Daniel Jones bring. But Indy

793
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 2: was a home dog all week and ends up winning

794
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 2: and covering total sales over forty three and a half.

795
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 2: I mean Denver Denver money line was a loser because

796
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 2: of a leverage penalty. Uh, that's basically the way to

797
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 2: look at it. And then I don't know how the

798
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 2: storyline just isn't Indies offense, Like I might want to

799
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 2: do my own episode right now of just things to

800
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 2: talk about when it comes to the Colts and Daniel Jones.

801
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 2: But the fact that you know, seven drives seven scores

802
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 2: in week one, seven drives are nine drives and seven

803
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 2: scores in Week two, so fourteen of sixteen ending in

804
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 2: field goals and touchdowns. I write a note here, which

805
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 2: I guess is something interesting that you can hit on.

806
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 2: I say, are the Colts the Saints of last year?

807
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 2: And just you know, I believe it was after two

808
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 2: weeks that was last year? Right, I'm not going crazy,

809
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 2: So I mean, I just it's really amazing what we're seeing,

810
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 2: especially the fact that they just did this against Denver's defense.

811
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 2: But right now, Daniel Jones is thirty pass first downs,

812
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 2: most in the NFL. He's second in the NFL in

813
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 2: passyards entering Sunday Night football. How about this one. I'm

814
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 2: just going to give you this and then I'll toss

815
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 2: it to you. Colts quarterbacks with five hundred and eighty

816
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 2: eight plus passyards in their first two games. Peyton Manning

817
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 2: did it six times, Unitis did it twice. Now Daniel Jones, okay,

818
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 2: five hundred and when you do five hundred and eighty

819
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 2: eight with no interceptions, it is just Peyton in twenty

820
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:14,720
Speaker 2: ten and now Daniel Jones in twenty twenty five. Also,

821
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 2: I had to triple check this one. But the Colts

822
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 2: don't have any turnovers through two games. I don't believe

823
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 2: they've ever done that in their history. Okay, so that

824
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 2: is exactly what we're dealing with with the Indianapolis Colts,

825
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 2: who are two and oh since I believe two thousand

826
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 2: and nine and they won the Super Bowl that year. Like,

827
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:33,319
Speaker 2: I don't know, what do you want to make of

828
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 2: this game? And we could actually take forward from a

829
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 2: handicapping point of view, because I kind of want have

830
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:39,799
Speaker 2: been to the Titans next week, but that's just me.

831
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean from the on the one hand, the

832
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 5: Colts obviously don't deserve to win the game. They missed

833
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 5: the game winning field goal, and then you get the

834
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:48,759
Speaker 5: leverage penalty, and then they get fifteen yards closer and

835
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 5: make the field goal, you get the win. On the

836
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 5: other hand, almost one hundred and fifty yards more seven

837
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,839
Speaker 5: yards of play for the Colts against this defense, two

838
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 5: of six in the red zone. So that's why this

839
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 5: is even a game. Six trips to the red zone

840
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 5: from Daniel Jones in this offense against Denver's defense. I've

841
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,840
Speaker 5: been low on Denver's defense compared to consensus, but man,

842
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 5: the Colts are not supposed to be doing that against

843
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 5: Denver six trips in if they're not just settling for

844
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,320
Speaker 5: all these field goals, I don't even think it's close

845
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 5: at the end, and Indy is just cruising to a

846
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 5: When Jonathan Taylor monster game one hundred and sixty five

847
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 5: yards twenty five carries. I looked into it a little bit.

848
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 5: Here's the takeaway from me with the Colts offense, like,

849
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 5: are are they this good? They're their top you know,

850
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 5: success rate EPA. All the metrics are going to tell

851
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 5: you the Colts are top three offense right now. So

852
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:39,240
Speaker 5: what's interesting in this particular game? On early downs, first

853
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 5: and second down, Colts have a fifty two percent success right,

854
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 5: so just over half the time and a point twenty

855
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 5: nine EPA per play. I'm late downs, that drops to

856
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 5: minus point four to six EPA per play. So here's

857
00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 5: how I translate that. On first and second down, Shane

858
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 5: Steiking is cooking. Shane Steiking is getting the Colts in

859
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 5: the position to succeed. They're running the ball well, the

860
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 5: defensive line is playing well, and Daniel Jones on those

861
00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 5: downs when the defense doesn't know if a pass is coming,

862
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 5: is playing well. Then it's third down and now it's

863
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 5: time to pass Daniel Jones and now it's not going well.

864
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:18,600
Speaker 5: So you mentioned no turnovers. If you're a head all

865
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 5: game and your head on first and second down and

866
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 5: you're playing like this is the Sam Darnold formula from

867
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,399
Speaker 5: last year with the Vikings. You get defense playing well,

868
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 5: you run the ball, you get protection, you got weapons,

869
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 5: you make life easy on the quarterback. So what I

870
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:35,879
Speaker 5: need to see from the Colts is what happens when

871
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,720
Speaker 5: life isn't easy. And I don't know if the Titans

872
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 5: are going to be the answer to that question. That's

873
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:42,760
Speaker 5: the problem. You look ahead on the schedule, the Colts

874
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 5: are two and zero. They go Titans, Rams, Raiders, Cardinals.

875
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:50,399
Speaker 5: Those are games this team can win if you really

876
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 5: look down the road. There's not a game where they

877
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 5: are clear definite underdogs until the week of Thanksgiving. They

878
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 5: play in Kansas City, who, by the way, is on

879
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 5: wing two. But I'm still going to give Kansas City

880
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 5: at home the clear advantage. Both Texans games are late

881
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 5: in the year. We don't know if Houston's good yet

882
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:11,840
Speaker 5: this season. The Colts might be actually something real here,

883
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 5: but I want to see what does the offense look

884
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 5: like when they're behind in a game when they're down

885
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 5: on a third down, when they're behind after turnover, what

886
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 5: does that look like? But guess what we think that

887
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 5: about other offenses sometimes too, and if the team is

888
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 5: good enough, you can hide that and you don't get

889
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 5: that many opportunities, so we've got to see it.

890
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:35,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think right now, to me, through two games,

891
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 2: which I think you're right about, there hasn't been leverage plays.

892
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 2: The Colts haven't needed to do anything out of the

893
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 2: ordinary to put Daniel Jones in a spot where they've

894
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 2: absolutely needed him because it's been early down in success.

895
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 2: It's made it relatively easy. So in terms of completion

896
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:55,160
Speaker 2: percentage above expected this season, in order, the best quarterback

897
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 2: in the NFL in twenty twenty five, last time I

898
00:45:57,440 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 2: looked before Sunda Night football was brock Purty number one,

899
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:03,320
Speaker 2: So obviously we know the situation there. Number two is

900
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 2: Jery Goff, Number three is Daniel Jones. So what he's

901
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 2: doing right now is just making it easier on the

902
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 2: team completing passes. And I think you're right on the

903
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 2: early down success. And I don't know necessarily if Tennessee's

904
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 2: going to be the team to kind of push them,

905
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 2: but I think the Rams might, so we will see

906
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 2: that line next week. Indy is minus three with some

907
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 2: minus twenty minus one twenty juice on the road in Tennessee.

908
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:31,359
Speaker 2: So that is the line at the moment as of

909
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 2: now from Denver's point of view. The only thing I

910
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:35,799
Speaker 2: kind of wanted to say, because I know we talked

911
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 2: a lot about the Colts, and you know probably have

912
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 2: a right too. But Denver's opponents last two games thirteen

913
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:46,280
Speaker 2: and eleven penalties, which I found kind of notable. Basically

914
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 2: Sean Payton putting other teams into those situations. Dobbins had

915
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 2: the clear running back lead. It seemed over Harvey at

916
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 2: least when I looked in terms of carries and Troy Franklin.

917
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 2: I put a question mark next Toe because had nine targets,

918
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,840
Speaker 2: which felt kind of interesting giving this offense. But I

919
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 2: just don't know what to make about Sean Payton. But

920
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 2: do you have anything else there? No?

921
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, the Denver and Indy are both teams I've not

922
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 5: been high on, so it's an interesting game. I always

923
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:13,880
Speaker 5: make a list at the end of Sunday night, you know,

924
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 5: especially early the season. I'm gonna rewatch every game the

925
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,359
Speaker 5: next couple of days. This is top of my list,

926
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 5: this one in Jacksonville, Cincinnati. I just need to see

927
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 5: a little bit more. What did Brownie look like for

928
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 5: the Bengals. But in this game, just what's happening. Is

929
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 5: bo Nick's doing real things? Is Daniel Jones doing real things?

930
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 2: You know?

931
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:32,880
Speaker 5: It's hard. We had nine games on the early window,

932
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 5: and I guess this one's in the late window. But

933
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 5: you know, just what's happening in these games? Play by

934
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 5: a play when you dig in, get the all twenty

935
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 5: two a little bit, and I think we have a

936
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 5: lot to learn on these two teams. There are two

937
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 5: teams I don't feel like I have a good handle

938
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 5: on just yet.

939
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:50,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I couldn't be more upset about that. Nine one

940
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 2: o'clock games in three afternoon games. Everyone was talking about

941
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 2: that themselves. But that is for another day. So we're

942
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 2: going to go through the rest of these games very quickly.

943
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 2: I'm going to give score the game, then I'm gonna

944
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 2: give one stat to kind of get us out of here,

945
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:06,239
Speaker 2: all right, Rams, Tennessee. Rams win this game thirty three

946
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 2: nineteen cover minus five and a half on the close

947
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 2: over forty one and a half. Cam Ward now been

948
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 2: sacked eleven times, most in the NFL. That is a

949
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 2: little worrisome. Buffalo and the Jets. Buffalo wins the game

950
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 2: thirty to ten, which honestly felt like way more of

951
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 2: a blowout than thirty ten. They cover minus six on

952
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 2: the close, total goes under forty seven and a half.

953
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:33,600
Speaker 2: The Jets are now six and twenty five straight up

954
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:37,359
Speaker 2: versus the AFC East since twenty twenty, the worst mark

955
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 2: in the NFL. All right, next game, speaking of bad

956
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 2: versus your own division, Chicago against Detroit. Detroit wins the

957
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:49,719
Speaker 2: game fifty two twenty one. Really putting it to Ben Johnson,

958
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 2: so cover every number total over forty six and a half.

959
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:58,320
Speaker 2: They covered it just themselves with Detroit FI. But Chicago.

960
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 2: Look at this number. Chicago's six and thirty three straight

961
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 2: up as underdogs versus the NFC since twenty twenty one,

962
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 2: and just to show how stupid that is, they are

963
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 2: eight and three straight up as favorites, So eight and

964
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:16,760
Speaker 2: three versus NFC as favorites six and thirty three straight

965
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 2: up since twenty twenty one. So just not coming through

966
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,799
Speaker 2: his dogs. San Francisco, New Orleans. San Francisco wins the

967
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 2: game twenty six twenty one line opened minus seven, closed

968
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 2: minus three, so every number mattered, get the best of it.

969
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 2: Total over forty and a half. Spencer Rattler, oh win

970
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 2: eight straight up as a starter, but to me, the

971
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 2: crazy one San Francisco now three and sixteen second half

972
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 2: ats since the start of last season, another loss in

973
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 2: that category. Today Cleveland Baltimore. Baltimore wins the game forty

974
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 2: one seventeen, cover all the numbers, total over forty six

975
00:49:57,000 --> 00:50:00,920
Speaker 2: and a half. The Browns have lost eight secutive games

976
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 2: against the spread dating back to the last season, the

977
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 2: long Ats, Lucas Street longest Ats losing streak in the NFL,

978
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 2: and finally Carolina and Arizona. This might have been the

979
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,799
Speaker 2: number two game we would have talked about if they

980
00:50:14,840 --> 00:50:18,359
Speaker 2: would have continued with the upset, but Arizona twenty seven

981
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:22,279
Speaker 2: to twenty two. Carolina covers most of the numbers. They

982
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:25,279
Speaker 2: were between six and seven. There were some, you know,

983
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:27,959
Speaker 2: little smaller numbers at some other points, but total over

984
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 2: forty five and a half. Like I said, Carolina almost

985
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 2: came back from twenty four points down. They have actually

986
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:38,319
Speaker 2: lost sixty four consecutive games outright when trailing by more

987
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 2: than one possession October of twenty eighteen. Believe it was

988
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 2: Cam Newton last time they made that comeback and almost

989
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:49,280
Speaker 2: happened today. All Right, it is Monday night football time,

990
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 2: so we've got two games on Monday Night football. We've

991
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:06,840
Speaker 2: got Tampa Bay at Houston and the Chargers at the Raiders.

992
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 2: So why don't we go game by game here? We'll

993
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:13,400
Speaker 2: start with Bucks at Texans. I'll let you start and

994
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 2: then I'll go through my bets.

995
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:17,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm curious what you think on the setup here.

996
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 5: We got the games like totally just back to back.

997
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 5: We got like a whole Sunday window of just one game,

998
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 5: the whole thing. Yeah, that's how I like it too.

999
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 5: Don't do the overlap thing, don't put them both at once.

1000
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:31,279
Speaker 5: Just give us the double Island standalone, so we get

1001
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 5: to watch and bet both of them. Texans box is

1002
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:36,959
Speaker 5: a tricky one. I thought both of these offenses left

1003
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 5: a lot of questions from week one, so the move

1004
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:43,360
Speaker 5: here probably should have been the under. The problem is

1005
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:46,320
Speaker 5: that the under the total drop like four points since Sunday,

1006
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 5: so I think the value is probably gone there. The

1007
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 5: offensive lines for either team not great. Texans offensive line

1008
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 5: worse than the league and missing a couple guys potentially

1009
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:59,239
Speaker 5: and probably including center against Mitavea. That's not great. The

1010
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 5: box are still sat Tristan Wurfs. He may be back soon,

1011
00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 5: but he's not going to play in this one. Didn't

1012
00:52:04,680 --> 00:52:07,880
Speaker 5: really love the Grizzard offense for them, certainly did not

1013
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 5: love the Nick Kayley offense. Both of these guys first

1014
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 5: time play callers, only one game and didn't go great here.

1015
00:52:15,280 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 5: So if I look at the game, what do I

1016
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 5: feel confident about? Not a lot, But the one thing

1017
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 5: I feel confident about is the Texans defense. That's the

1018
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:26,839
Speaker 5: one unit that I know is a great unit on

1019
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 5: the field, especially with all the Bucks injuries on offense. Godwin,

1020
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 5: the receivers worfs, and we saw with Houston we cashed

1021
00:52:36,160 --> 00:52:38,840
Speaker 5: the first half bet last week. They blew another second half.

1022
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 5: I like the Texans to cover here the full game.

1023
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:43,239
Speaker 5: I'll play the minus two and a half to get

1024
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:46,600
Speaker 5: the win and the cover the key difference against the

1025
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,439
Speaker 5: Rams versus the Bucks. That's who Houston played Week one.

1026
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 5: We know about the Rams front seven lots of pass rush,

1027
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:56,120
Speaker 5: and I don't think Tampa Bay quite has that level

1028
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 5: of pass rush. Todd Bowles. Maybe we'll scheme something up Passano.

1029
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:02,399
Speaker 5: Reddick kind of had some old juice in week one,

1030
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 5: but it's not quite the same as all those young,

1031
00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 5: tenacious Rams defenders. So I think Stroud maybe can find

1032
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:11,360
Speaker 5: a little bit more here. I think it's kind of

1033
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:14,480
Speaker 5: an uglish game, But in an ugly game, I'm gonna

1034
00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:17,360
Speaker 5: take Demico and the Texans defense. If you like the

1035
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:20,720
Speaker 5: Texans here, maybe division futures. I don't think the prices

1036
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 5: are up right now, but especially we talked about Colts.

1037
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 5: If you're out on the Colts and you're looking for

1038
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:27,799
Speaker 5: a play, the Texans at plus money might be the

1039
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:29,799
Speaker 5: way as well to get the win here. But give

1040
00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 5: me Texans minus two and a half probably more of

1041
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 5: a lean than a full play, So paybe like a

1042
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:35,399
Speaker 5: half unit here.

1043
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I didn't have a ton before I started

1044
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 2: handicapping this game a few hours ago. I put all

1045
00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:44,399
Speaker 2: my plays in the app on like Wednesday, my only

1046
00:53:44,440 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 2: play in terms of the night games, I liked it

1047
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:48,919
Speaker 2: landed tonight. I didn't touch these two games, but since

1048
00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:51,359
Speaker 2: I've handicapped it, here's kind of the way I looked

1049
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:54,520
Speaker 2: at it. So we like the angle of Houston early

1050
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:56,439
Speaker 2: and they kind of fade late. So I think there's

1051
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 2: something interesting there with the fact that Tampa Bay is

1052
00:53:59,680 --> 00:54:02,480
Speaker 2: plus two thirty to win from behind. But I think

1053
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:04,880
Speaker 2: a better way to play that would be Houston to

1054
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 2: score first and lose, which I saw I believe at FanDuel.

1055
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 2: But you can check around at plus three eighty, So

1056
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:14,360
Speaker 2: Houston to score first and lose at plus three eighty

1057
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 2: felt like an interesting price to me. The other way

1058
00:54:17,040 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 2: I would look at this game is Dalton Schultz. So

1059
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts in Week one goes seven of fifty nine

1060
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 2: eight point four yards per in that game against Tampa Bay.

1061
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:32,279
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay also allowing six to sixty seven versus tight

1062
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:35,719
Speaker 2: ends last year, and I think Schultz is a key

1063
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:39,280
Speaker 2: part of that offense in terms of what Stroud needs

1064
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 2: and does on a per drive basis. I also like

1065
00:54:42,719 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 2: one more plus one sixty five catch first drive for

1066
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:50,880
Speaker 2: Schultz and four plus catches minus one fifty feels like

1067
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:54,399
Speaker 2: the interesting way to play Schultz if I like him

1068
00:54:54,440 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 2: in the game. And then the last thing here is

1069
00:54:56,960 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 2: Stroud rushing yards. I feel like it's just a little low.

1070
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:02,920
Speaker 2: He went five of thirty two in Week one this

1071
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:06,280
Speaker 2: is a primetime game. I think he's going to try

1072
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,120
Speaker 2: to get out of some sacks here from Tampa Bay's defense,

1073
00:55:09,160 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 2: So over ten and a half feels a little short

1074
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:12,879
Speaker 2: for me. Any thoughts there?

1075
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:16,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I like the Schultz play partly because Stover led

1076
00:55:16,680 --> 00:55:18,839
Speaker 5: the team I think in receptions last week the other

1077
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:20,960
Speaker 5: dead end. But he's out for the season now, so

1078
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 5: it's gonna have to be somebody. Maybe it's Schultz.

1079
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:27,840
Speaker 2: Second Monday night football game, it is Chargers and Raiders.

1080
00:55:28,600 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 2: Just looking at the updated line, so Chargers look like

1081
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 2: they're minus three and a half over under forty six

1082
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 2: and a half, which a little bit of a contrary there.

1083
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:38,759
Speaker 2: So the other game gone down four points on the

1084
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 2: total since open this one up two points. What do

1085
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:41,840
Speaker 2: you like?

1086
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:45,400
Speaker 5: This feels very pac twelve after dark to me, Like

1087
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:49,280
Speaker 5: this is the perfect ten pm Eastern time zone kickoff.

1088
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:51,439
Speaker 5: This game is going to be ending at like two

1089
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:54,200
Speaker 5: am on the East Coast at like some forty two

1090
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 5: to forty one crazy like last second Wonky players something.

1091
00:55:58,080 --> 00:55:59,759
Speaker 5: I just I feel like we're just going to get

1092
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:02,760
Speaker 5: some weird outcome here, and maybe that's because we often

1093
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:05,640
Speaker 5: do when these teams play. So for the last five years,

1094
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:08,239
Speaker 5: Raiders and Chargers split the series, so that's a good

1095
00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 5: thing to start with. Including home team has won seven

1096
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 5: of the last eight games here, so this is in

1097
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:16,480
Speaker 5: Vegas on a Monday night. That's a real home crowd.

1098
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 5: Vegas has had a good home field advantage there, So

1099
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 5: I think that to me is enough to say this

1100
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:24,080
Speaker 5: should not be at the key number and certainly not

1101
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 5: past the key number. So I'm gonna go Raiders plus

1102
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:28,560
Speaker 5: three and a half here. You have the trivia earlier

1103
00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 5: about Gina how good he's been as an underdog. I

1104
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:35,240
Speaker 5: look at these teams and I see somewhat similar teams,

1105
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 5: subpar defenses. I think the Chargers are a little better

1106
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 5: but not great, average but not great offenses. And then

1107
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:46,840
Speaker 5: I think this overall similar profile. Chargers a little better,

1108
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:49,840
Speaker 5: but Gino's lightening it up last week, Gino's downing it

1109
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:52,680
Speaker 5: up down the field. Herbert looked great, but Gina looked

1110
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 5: really good as well. They had more explosives than any

1111
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:58,280
Speaker 5: team by pretty wide margin in that game as well.

1112
00:56:58,600 --> 00:57:01,440
Speaker 5: So I think Raiders plus three and half just playing

1113
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 5: the key number as much as anything else here and

1114
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 5: getting the home dog on Monday night. Football always going

1115
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 5: to be a good spot for you, and I don't

1116
00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 5: think we have lines up right now. But I mentioned

1117
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 5: in our pod last week on our Best Bets, I

1118
00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 5: think if you like the Raiders here to sneak a win,

1119
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:21,680
Speaker 5: they're suddenly tied for the division lead. So Raiders division

1120
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 5: odds before the weekend were thirteen to one. We told

1121
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 5: you to take it because now they're not going to

1122
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 5: be thirteen to one. Denver lost and Kansas City loss,

1123
00:57:29,000 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 5: so that number is going to be lower. But playoff

1124
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:34,600
Speaker 5: odds also interesting plus two to fifty for the weekend

1125
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:37,560
Speaker 5: if we're right. If I'm right that the Bengals spot

1126
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 5: might be up for grabs if they had a spot before,

1127
00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 5: that's another maybe wildcard spot and you win this game.

1128
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 5: That's hurting the Chargers, who right now are heavily favored

1129
00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 5: to be a playoff team. Chargers are plus two hundred

1130
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 5: to miss the playoffs. So I had the Raiders going

1131
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 5: into the week as maybe the most valuable future is

1132
00:57:55,160 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 5: ticket to invest in if you like them here. I

1133
00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 5: think rather than play the money line and the Gino

1134
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:03,720
Speaker 5: Smith stat you talked about, the money line to play

1135
00:58:03,800 --> 00:58:06,240
Speaker 5: is a futures angle. If they win the game. This

1136
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 5: team might actually be set up at two to zh

1137
00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:10,280
Speaker 5: to go make some noise and do something real in

1138
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 5: the AFC.

1139
00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had a more difficult time trying to handicap

1140
00:58:14,400 --> 00:58:17,480
Speaker 2: this one. If anything, I was going to take the Raiders,

1141
00:58:17,960 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 2: but in terms of the game itself, these were the

1142
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:24,000
Speaker 2: three angles I came up with. I like Dicker over

1143
00:58:24,080 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 2: one and a half field goals, but to me, the

1144
00:58:25,680 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 2: price sucks. I used to bet this frequently because he

1145
00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:32,600
Speaker 2: basically I think he's had a field goal in like

1146
00:58:32,720 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 2: twelve thirteen straight games. He usually hits two plus because honestly,

1147
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 2: the red zone offense from Herbert and Harball hasn't been

1148
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 2: fantastic and Dicker's usually pretty accurate. But minus one fifty sucks.

1149
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 2: So these are the two other bets. I'll take a

1150
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:48,840
Speaker 2: chance on the Chargers to punt on the first drive

1151
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 2: at plus one twenty five. So the Raiders defense has

1152
00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 2: forced a punt in five straight opening drives, three and

1153
00:58:56,840 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 2: out last week. This one's at home. Feel like it's

1154
00:58:59,800 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 2: gonna be a little raucous in Vegas and Chargers last week.

1155
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:08,600
Speaker 2: Great opening play, touchdown, opening drive, touchdown before that field goal.

1156
00:59:09,200 --> 00:59:10,440
Speaker 2: I just think this is a little bit of a

1157
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 2: different situation, and I like the price. And then I

1158
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 2: was looking at QB rush yards because I like Stroud,

1159
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 2: and I was kind of looking at both quarterbacks. I

1160
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:21,680
Speaker 2: was thinking, should I parlay both for fifteen plus, which

1161
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:24,120
Speaker 2: is like three three to one or so. But another

1162
00:59:24,160 --> 00:59:28,240
Speaker 2: angle I saw was Gino over longest rush. So I

1163
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 2: feel like, in this situation, and there's lots of scrambles

1164
00:59:32,240 --> 00:59:35,800
Speaker 2: against the Chargers and especially around the edges, and everyone's

1165
00:59:35,800 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 2: gonna be watching Crosby and all, but I think over

1166
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:40,440
Speaker 2: six and a half long a rush, I think he's

1167
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:43,040
Speaker 2: gonna find his lane at some point in this game,

1168
00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:45,000
Speaker 2: and the Chargers are gonna allow it, which they tend

1169
00:59:45,040 --> 00:59:47,600
Speaker 2: to do on a per game basis. So those are

1170
00:59:47,600 --> 00:59:50,000
Speaker 2: the bets I liked. Anything you see there.

1171
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, Mahomes ran well on the Chargers last week, so

1172
00:59:53,040 --> 00:59:55,040
Speaker 5: maybe Gino kind of follows in his footsteps.

1173
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 2: Bring it on, all right, So if you want to

1174
00:59:57,160 --> 00:59:59,520
Speaker 2: tell some of these bets we gave out today for

1175
00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:02,200
Speaker 2: Monday and Game, make sure to look for the quick

1176
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:05,880
Speaker 2: slip link in the podcast and video description or go

1177
01:00:06,120 --> 01:00:09,800
Speaker 2: to Action network dot com slash bet Now. Honestly, I'll

1178
01:00:09,800 --> 01:00:12,480
Speaker 2: give you an endorsement right now. The actionework dot Com

1179
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 2: slash bet now is super super easy. It's the best

1180
01:00:15,120 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 2: way I find to get all these bets because they

1181
01:00:17,400 --> 01:00:19,600
Speaker 2: are listed there all in a row. You just click

1182
01:00:19,680 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 2: them and add them to your account. Really super easy.

1183
01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:25,200
Speaker 2: So all right, Brandon, I think we've teased them long enough.

1184
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 2: Now let's get your hot reads now for week three.

1185
01:00:28,680 --> 01:00:29,720
Speaker 2: You've got some plays.

1186
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:32,760
Speaker 3: Give it to us hot Wrap both have a day

1187
01:00:33,200 --> 01:00:39,840
Speaker 3: on ice rights ice cream.

1188
01:00:39,920 --> 01:00:42,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, We're going right back to the Raiders here, and

1189
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 5: I'm gonna play the Raiders next week Raiders plus six

1190
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:47,760
Speaker 5: and a half at the Commanders. It's a rare spot here.

1191
01:00:47,800 --> 01:00:50,200
Speaker 5: I don't normally play a hot read before the team

1192
01:00:50,280 --> 01:00:52,160
Speaker 5: has played their game for the week, So why are

1193
01:00:52,240 --> 01:00:55,080
Speaker 5: we doing it? Well, six and a half matters, but

1194
01:00:55,640 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 5: partly we think the Raiders have show well for themselves

1195
01:00:58,680 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 5: on Monday night. Maybe that line comes down a little bit.

1196
01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:05,000
Speaker 5: But also, while no one really noticed, Jane Daniels is

1197
01:01:05,080 --> 01:01:06,680
Speaker 5: day to day right now with a knee injury, and

1198
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:09,200
Speaker 5: we haven't heard a lot about it. Dan Klinn is

1199
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:12,440
Speaker 5: supposedly going to speak on Monday about the injury. There

1200
01:01:12,480 --> 01:01:15,240
Speaker 5: are some kind of hushed worried tones coming out about this.

1201
01:01:15,320 --> 01:01:18,080
Speaker 5: They took an MRI on Daniels. I don't think he's

1202
01:01:18,120 --> 01:01:20,800
Speaker 5: gonna miss the game necessarily, but I think we at

1203
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:23,280
Speaker 5: least get a less mobile Daniels, which is still as

1204
01:01:23,360 --> 01:01:25,080
Speaker 5: top skill right now. We probably get a little bit

1205
01:01:25,120 --> 01:01:28,760
Speaker 5: less running from him that moves the line a little bit,

1206
01:01:29,200 --> 01:01:31,960
Speaker 5: and really it's all upside for us as better he's

1207
01:01:32,000 --> 01:01:34,959
Speaker 5: grabbing Raiders right now. Any bad news that comes out

1208
01:01:35,240 --> 01:01:37,520
Speaker 5: in that Monday press conference is just going to move

1209
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:40,360
Speaker 5: it toward the Raiders. It's not a great rest spot here.

1210
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 5: So the Raiders play Monday, the Commanders played Thursday, so

1211
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 5: they have a huge res advantage that would make me

1212
01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:48,040
Speaker 5: be on the other side. But kind of similar, I

1213
01:01:48,080 --> 01:01:50,480
Speaker 5: said with the Chargers, I think kind of similar teams.

1214
01:01:50,520 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 5: Both not good defensively, both kind of a round lee

1215
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:57,360
Speaker 5: garage offensively. And I'm not sure that the Commander's quarterback

1216
01:01:57,400 --> 01:01:59,440
Speaker 5: is better if he's hurt. And Gino is playing this

1217
01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:01,560
Speaker 5: well right now. Now. Some of the stats for this

1218
01:02:01,600 --> 01:02:05,000
Speaker 5: game as well, some trends. Week three trends home underdogs

1219
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:08,000
Speaker 5: seven or less fifty nine percent cover rate, So I

1220
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 5: rode underdogs, which is what the Raiders are home favorites

1221
01:02:11,480 --> 01:02:15,600
Speaker 5: after losing, like the Commanders thirty four percent ats in

1222
01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:19,080
Speaker 5: Week three twenty three and forty four not great. Dan

1223
01:02:19,200 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 5: Quinn as a favorite forty one percent cover rate, the

1224
01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:25,960
Speaker 5: least profitable active head coach Pete Carroll as an underdog

1225
01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:29,880
Speaker 5: sixty one percent, second most profitable, behind of course Mike Tomlin.

1226
01:02:30,000 --> 01:02:32,320
Speaker 5: So we like Carol as a dog. We like to

1227
01:02:32,360 --> 01:02:36,120
Speaker 5: fade Quinn as a favorite. It's risky because it's six

1228
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:38,760
Speaker 5: and a half. So maybe you wait and you might

1229
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:40,960
Speaker 5: get a seven seven and a half. That's a key number,

1230
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:43,400
Speaker 5: but so is six, and there are already some sixes

1231
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:45,480
Speaker 5: and five and a half's out there. I played the

1232
01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:48,880
Speaker 5: six and a half at DraftKings. If we get Mariota,

1233
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:51,160
Speaker 5: even for part of the game, we're gonna like that

1234
01:02:51,280 --> 01:02:53,720
Speaker 5: number a lot plus two to forty money line if

1235
01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:55,800
Speaker 5: you want to grab that as well. But that's at

1236
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:57,120
Speaker 5: a few books. I'm going to play the six and

1237
01:02:57,160 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 5: a half ahead of the key number on the Raiders

1238
01:02:59,440 --> 01:03:00,680
Speaker 5: for next week as well.

1239
01:03:01,040 --> 01:03:03,880
Speaker 2: If you want to talk about perception, the look aheadline

1240
01:03:04,080 --> 01:03:07,360
Speaker 2: on that game for Raiders Commanders was seven and a half,

1241
01:03:07,440 --> 01:03:10,800
Speaker 2: So without even seeing what we Raiders win week one.

1242
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 2: We haven't seen week two yet. They've already taken it

1243
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 2: down a point, so I feel like at that mark

1244
01:03:16,120 --> 01:03:18,160
Speaker 2: you're kind of going with the flow a little bit,

1245
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:20,000
Speaker 2: and I think it'll drop. So I think six and

1246
01:03:20,040 --> 01:03:22,640
Speaker 2: a half feels like a decent price, especially if we're

1247
01:03:22,680 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 2: right about Monday Night.

1248
01:03:24,760 --> 01:03:26,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, I like that one, and then look, I just

1249
01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 5: need to get a win on the board. So for

1250
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:30,160
Speaker 5: our other affect of a hot Reid, I'm doing a

1251
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:34,080
Speaker 5: primetime parlay. We're going Sunday Night, Monday Night, Chiefs money line,

1252
01:03:34,240 --> 01:03:37,360
Speaker 5: Ravens money line, Chiefs at the Giants. We already talked

1253
01:03:37,360 --> 01:03:39,360
Speaker 5: about this game. I still don't mind the minus five

1254
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:41,680
Speaker 5: and a half that's out there at some six six

1255
01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:44,920
Speaker 5: and a half. Both teams zero and two. Chiefs defense

1256
01:03:44,920 --> 01:03:47,000
Speaker 5: played a lot better today. My home is gonna be

1257
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:48,520
Speaker 5: able to get it out quickly enough to beat the

1258
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:52,080
Speaker 5: bad secondary in the Giants Giants offense. I know what

1259
01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:55,000
Speaker 5: it looked like today. That was about the Cowboys defense.

1260
01:03:55,040 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 5: I'm not that word. They're rotating quarterbacks also, Jackson Darts

1261
01:03:58,360 --> 01:04:01,000
Speaker 5: coming in for plays every now and then. That's a mess.

1262
01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 5: The Chiefs are not losing to this Giants team and

1263
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:06,000
Speaker 5: then Ravens lines. I know how much better the Lions

1264
01:04:06,040 --> 01:04:08,640
Speaker 5: look today. The Ravens beat the Lions when they last

1265
01:04:08,640 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 5: played two years ago, thirty eight to six. They demolished

1266
01:04:12,160 --> 01:04:14,760
Speaker 5: this team five hundred yards of offense twenty eight to

1267
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:17,560
Speaker 5: nothing in a halftime. It's the Ravens. They're at home.

1268
01:04:17,600 --> 01:04:19,480
Speaker 5: It's the best team in football, the Lions of all

1269
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 5: those defensive injuries. I just need to win here and

1270
01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 5: right now. When numbers are at like five and a

1271
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:27,760
Speaker 5: half for six, that's kind of in the teaser range.

1272
01:04:27,800 --> 01:04:29,919
Speaker 5: That's where I started. But you don't want to tease

1273
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:31,800
Speaker 5: a five and a half or six. You're wasting your

1274
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:33,880
Speaker 5: teas because you get six points on the tees, you're

1275
01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:36,800
Speaker 5: kind of crossing over the zero. That's no good. So

1276
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:39,919
Speaker 5: most teasers these days you're paying like a minus one thirty.

1277
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:41,680
Speaker 5: Like books are not wanting to give out teasers to

1278
01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:45,400
Speaker 5: us anymore. Parlay the money lines at DraftKings minus one

1279
01:04:45,480 --> 01:04:48,000
Speaker 5: oh six. So we're getting better than just a typical bet.

1280
01:04:48,280 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 5: And all you got to do is have Patrick Mahomes

1281
01:04:50,120 --> 01:04:53,880
Speaker 5: and Lamar Jackson win, So primetime parlay please, for the

1282
01:04:53,920 --> 01:04:57,040
Speaker 5: love of God, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson win the games

1283
01:04:57,120 --> 01:05:00,360
Speaker 5: that we're watching in prime time, just win. I'm time

1284
01:05:00,400 --> 01:05:03,160
Speaker 5: parlay Chiefs Ravens minus one o six at DraftKings.

1285
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:06,480
Speaker 2: Well, nothing could be sexier than both those money lines

1286
01:05:06,480 --> 01:05:09,480
Speaker 2: for both those teams in primetime. And hey, listen, you

1287
01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:12,920
Speaker 2: get Lamar against the NFC. So believe historically that hasn't

1288
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:15,720
Speaker 2: been too It hasn't been too shabby. Uh again. If

1289
01:05:15,720 --> 01:05:17,880
Speaker 2: you want to tail Brandon's hot read, find the quick

1290
01:05:17,880 --> 01:05:20,720
Speaker 2: sliplink in the podcast and video description or go to

1291
01:05:20,760 --> 01:05:23,880
Speaker 2: action er dot com slash bet now b e t

1292
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:24,920
Speaker 2: n OW.

1293
01:05:27,080 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 5: Thank you.

1294
01:05:35,240 --> 01:05:37,680
Speaker 2: All right, before we wrap up, let's hear from Patrick

1295
01:05:37,720 --> 01:05:40,920
Speaker 2: Everson from Vegas Insiders and how things looked in Las Vegas.

1296
01:05:41,120 --> 01:05:43,560
Speaker 1: All right, Evan, thanks a lot. Patrick Everson here for

1297
01:05:43,640 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 1: Vegas Insider. It was a good week for favorites and

1298
01:05:47,480 --> 01:05:50,360
Speaker 1: it was a good week for overs, at least heading

1299
01:05:50,400 --> 01:05:53,680
Speaker 1: to the Monday night games, which means generally speaking, it

1300
01:05:53,800 --> 01:05:56,760
Speaker 1: was a good week for the public betting masses. It wasn't,

1301
01:05:57,480 --> 01:05:59,800
Speaker 1: you know, a terrible week for the bookmakers. Most of

1302
01:05:59,840 --> 01:06:02,320
Speaker 1: them said, you know, a small win on the day

1303
01:06:02,520 --> 01:06:04,720
Speaker 1: or you know, kind of broke evenish. It wasn't like

1304
01:06:04,720 --> 01:06:07,240
Speaker 1: they got to take into the cleaners behind the counter.

1305
01:06:07,800 --> 01:06:10,440
Speaker 1: But when you get a lot of favorites winning, and

1306
01:06:10,480 --> 01:06:13,640
Speaker 1: the favorites win eleven and three through the first fourteen games,

1307
01:06:13,680 --> 01:06:16,200
Speaker 1: you got two more on Monday Night, eleven and three

1308
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:19,680
Speaker 1: straight up, ten and four against the spread. And it

1309
01:06:19,760 --> 01:06:23,320
Speaker 1: was more so having the right favorites cover as well,

1310
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:29,200
Speaker 1: especially Detroit and Baltimore and Buffalo, all real popular teams

1311
01:06:29,200 --> 01:06:31,520
Speaker 1: that are going to be in parlays up and down

1312
01:06:31,560 --> 01:06:32,760
Speaker 1: people's parlay tickets.

1313
01:06:33,400 --> 01:06:34,840
Speaker 4: Even in the case.

1314
01:06:34,720 --> 01:06:39,000
Speaker 1: Of you know where, the Eagles didn't cover and Dallas

1315
01:06:39,480 --> 01:06:42,680
Speaker 1: obviously didn't cover, still the favorite got there and that

1316
01:06:42,760 --> 01:06:45,120
Speaker 1: keeps those money line parlays alive. And you know what

1317
01:06:45,120 --> 01:06:47,479
Speaker 1: oddsmakers have told me almost every week for the past

1318
01:06:47,520 --> 01:06:51,560
Speaker 1: couple of years, along with having to keep a lot

1319
01:06:51,600 --> 01:06:54,960
Speaker 1: of player props under and those single game parlays and

1320
01:06:55,040 --> 01:07:00,880
Speaker 1: so forth, is they really need a legit underdog to outright.

1321
01:07:01,000 --> 01:07:03,200
Speaker 1: And the New York Giants could have been that legit

1322
01:07:03,320 --> 01:07:07,000
Speaker 1: underdog on Sunday, but they were not. Dallas winning that

1323
01:07:07,120 --> 01:07:10,000
Speaker 1: game was a game changer really for the day. If

1324
01:07:10,000 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 1: the New York Giants had won, this probably would have

1325
01:07:12,360 --> 01:07:15,160
Speaker 1: been a huge day at least a very big day

1326
01:07:15,640 --> 01:07:18,600
Speaker 1: for bookmakers across the country, and here in Las Vegas,

1327
01:07:19,040 --> 01:07:21,280
Speaker 1: the Cowboys were certainly in a lot of moneyline parlays,

1328
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:24,800
Speaker 1: probably tied to some of those other teams I mentioned Detroit, Baltimore, Buffalo,

1329
01:07:24,800 --> 01:07:27,680
Speaker 1: et cetera, and maybe even those rolled back to Thursday

1330
01:07:27,760 --> 01:07:30,160
Speaker 1: night with the Green Bay Packers, who are always going

1331
01:07:30,200 --> 01:07:32,040
Speaker 1: to be popular. Even though the Commanders have become more

1332
01:07:32,080 --> 01:07:33,920
Speaker 1: of a public play, the Packers were probably the more

1333
01:07:34,320 --> 01:07:37,960
Speaker 1: public play and moneyline parlay play, and that Thursday night game.

1334
01:07:37,800 --> 01:07:38,560
Speaker 4: Against the Commanders.

1335
01:07:38,600 --> 01:07:41,800
Speaker 1: So again, a good day for the public betting masses,

1336
01:07:41,840 --> 01:07:44,440
Speaker 1: but you know, not necessarily an awful day for the books.

1337
01:07:44,480 --> 01:07:46,520
Speaker 1: Kind of a you know, kind of a so so day,

1338
01:07:46,560 --> 01:07:49,120
Speaker 1: I would say. Casey Degnen behind the counter at the

1339
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:51,680
Speaker 1: super Book, in fact, told me late on Sunday evening

1340
01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:57,280
Speaker 1: that with Atlanta beating Minnesota, an underdog winning on the road,

1341
01:07:57,360 --> 01:08:01,120
Speaker 1: no less, and also that game stayed way under.

1342
01:08:01,200 --> 01:08:03,080
Speaker 4: That the super Book was able to scratch out a

1343
01:08:03,200 --> 01:08:03,880
Speaker 4: very small win.

1344
01:08:03,920 --> 01:08:05,240
Speaker 1: And it sounds like that's kind of how it was

1345
01:08:05,280 --> 01:08:07,880
Speaker 1: for some of the bigger sportsbooks as well, as perhaps

1346
01:08:07,920 --> 01:08:11,760
Speaker 1: they scratched out a small win on all these results

1347
01:08:12,040 --> 01:08:15,720
Speaker 1: a couple of other things worth pointing out. If you know,

1348
01:08:15,720 --> 01:08:17,240
Speaker 1: we got to talk about the game of the day,

1349
01:08:17,320 --> 01:08:19,320
Speaker 1: the Eagles Chiefs. I know I mentioned a little bit earlier,

1350
01:08:20,200 --> 01:08:23,400
Speaker 1: Eagles win and cover. Eagles closed as one to one

1351
01:08:23,439 --> 01:08:26,040
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites on the road at Arrowhead.

1352
01:08:26,040 --> 01:08:28,240
Speaker 4: That put oddsmakers in a really unusual position.

1353
01:08:28,280 --> 01:08:30,600
Speaker 1: I talked to folks at BETEMGM nationally and at the

1354
01:08:30,600 --> 01:08:33,479
Speaker 1: super book and elsewhere, and they just found it very

1355
01:08:33,479 --> 01:08:37,280
Speaker 1: strange situation to be rooting for the Chiefs at home.

1356
01:08:37,400 --> 01:08:40,800
Speaker 1: It like almost never happens where they need the Chiefs

1357
01:08:40,840 --> 01:08:42,960
Speaker 1: at home, at least not in the Patrick Mahomes era.

1358
01:08:43,600 --> 01:08:45,680
Speaker 1: That's what they needed today and they did not get it.

1359
01:08:46,040 --> 01:08:48,599
Speaker 1: They was closed twenty to seventeen. But that's a win

1360
01:08:48,640 --> 01:08:51,920
Speaker 1: and cover for the Eagles, and again another favorite winning,

1361
01:08:52,120 --> 01:08:55,720
Speaker 1: and Philly is certainly a popular favorite as well. Totals

1362
01:08:55,800 --> 01:08:58,719
Speaker 1: were definitely a good story in week two as well,

1363
01:08:58,760 --> 01:09:00,160
Speaker 1: just as they were in Week one, but it was

1364
01:09:00,160 --> 01:09:02,880
Speaker 1: the opposite a week one. In week one you had

1365
01:09:02,960 --> 01:09:05,959
Speaker 1: unders going twelve and four, which the bookmakers were absolutely

1366
01:09:05,960 --> 01:09:10,840
Speaker 1: doing cartwheels over. So far in week two, with two

1367
01:09:10,920 --> 01:09:15,679
Speaker 1: games left, you've got unders, or rather overs, I should

1368
01:09:15,720 --> 01:09:18,400
Speaker 1: say at ten and four with a chance to go

1369
01:09:18,479 --> 01:09:20,679
Speaker 1: to twelve and four with that Monday night double header.

1370
01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:22,400
Speaker 4: I alluded to a little bit earlier.

1371
01:09:22,640 --> 01:09:25,920
Speaker 1: And probably more importantly than just the ten and four

1372
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:29,080
Speaker 1: was the games where the over came in, and particularly

1373
01:09:29,160 --> 01:09:31,160
Speaker 1: in the early window of games on Sunday.

1374
01:09:31,400 --> 01:09:34,799
Speaker 4: The over went eight and one in the early games,

1375
01:09:35,120 --> 01:09:35,879
Speaker 4: and it went.

1376
01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:39,960
Speaker 1: Way over with popular teams and probably popular overs to

1377
01:09:40,000 --> 01:09:44,040
Speaker 1: play in the early early games with Detroit and Baltimore

1378
01:09:44,479 --> 01:09:48,719
Speaker 1: and Dallas among others. So that was something that definitely

1379
01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:50,519
Speaker 1: went well for the book for the for the better

1380
01:09:50,600 --> 01:09:53,680
Speaker 1: is not so good for the bookmakers again, ten and

1381
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:55,559
Speaker 1: four to the over for the day after a twelve

1382
01:09:55,600 --> 01:09:57,880
Speaker 1: and four under week in week one.

1383
01:09:58,680 --> 01:09:59,559
Speaker 4: Then, as I alluded to.

1384
01:09:59,560 --> 01:10:01,400
Speaker 1: A little bit of go the you know, the one

1385
01:10:01,400 --> 01:10:02,960
Speaker 1: game that maybe broke a little bit better for the

1386
01:10:02,960 --> 01:10:07,560
Speaker 1: bookmakers was the Sunday nighter with the road Dog winning.

1387
01:10:07,439 --> 01:10:09,120
Speaker 4: And the under easily getting in.

1388
01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:10,439
Speaker 1: It was a forty four and a half total and

1389
01:10:10,439 --> 01:10:12,479
Speaker 1: they're only twenty eight points scored in that game. So

1390
01:10:13,720 --> 01:10:15,880
Speaker 1: this one was interesting as well if you were on

1391
01:10:15,920 --> 01:10:19,080
Speaker 1: the Broncos or the Colts at one and a half

1392
01:10:19,240 --> 01:10:20,920
Speaker 1: Broncos minus one and a half Colts plus one and

1393
01:10:20,960 --> 01:10:23,560
Speaker 1: a half. Crazy ending there, it looks like the Broncos

1394
01:10:23,600 --> 01:10:26,000
Speaker 1: win and cover twenty eight twenty six, but there's a

1395
01:10:26,000 --> 01:10:29,240
Speaker 1: penalty called on the missed sixty yard field goal as

1396
01:10:29,280 --> 01:10:30,519
Speaker 1: time expired for the Colts.

1397
01:10:30,840 --> 01:10:31,360
Speaker 4: It moves the.

1398
01:10:31,360 --> 01:10:34,640
Speaker 1: Colts fifteen yards closer and they kick it and win it.

1399
01:10:35,000 --> 01:10:37,680
Speaker 1: And so it goes from a Broncos winning cover to

1400
01:10:37,880 --> 01:10:41,280
Speaker 1: a Colts win in cover on the penalty, even though

1401
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:42,880
Speaker 1: there was no time left of the clock, because you

1402
01:10:42,920 --> 01:10:46,760
Speaker 1: can't end the game on a defensive penalty. Now, looking

1403
01:10:46,800 --> 01:10:49,360
Speaker 1: ahead to Monday Night, as I noted a little bit ago,

1404
01:10:49,439 --> 01:10:51,200
Speaker 1: there are two games.

1405
01:10:50,840 --> 01:10:51,599
Speaker 4: On Monday Night.

1406
01:10:51,640 --> 01:10:53,080
Speaker 1: I'm going to give you just kind of the latest

1407
01:10:53,120 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 1: from DraftKings as we head into your Monday. A whole

1408
01:10:56,600 --> 01:10:59,200
Speaker 1: lot of action will come in on these games during

1409
01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:01,679
Speaker 1: the day Monday and the hours, even in the hour

1410
01:11:01,760 --> 01:11:04,639
Speaker 1: or two leading up to kick off. But right now

1411
01:11:04,720 --> 01:11:06,600
Speaker 1: as we look at it, you've got Texans two and

1412
01:11:06,640 --> 01:11:09,320
Speaker 1: a half point favorites. But opinions are divided on this

1413
01:11:09,360 --> 01:11:12,040
Speaker 1: game at DraftKings, sixty eight percent of spread bets on

1414
01:11:12,200 --> 01:11:15,160
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers on the road, sixty five percent of spread

1415
01:11:15,240 --> 01:11:18,400
Speaker 1: money on the Texans. And then in the night cap

1416
01:11:18,479 --> 01:11:21,120
Speaker 1: ten o'clock start time on the East coast seven here

1417
01:11:21,160 --> 01:11:23,080
Speaker 1: in the best time zone, the Pacific time zone. Here

1418
01:11:23,120 --> 01:11:26,240
Speaker 1: in Vegas, you got the Chargers and the Raiders, and

1419
01:11:26,360 --> 01:11:27,599
Speaker 1: it's more one way here.

1420
01:11:27,640 --> 01:11:29,200
Speaker 4: It's definitely more decisive here.

1421
01:11:29,680 --> 01:11:32,599
Speaker 1: Chargers lay in three and a half at DraftKings take

1422
01:11:32,600 --> 01:11:34,760
Speaker 1: account two to one money about two and a half

1423
01:11:34,800 --> 01:11:37,479
Speaker 1: to one, almost approaching three to one on the Chargers,

1424
01:11:37,800 --> 01:11:40,599
Speaker 1: and the Chargers are taking in even heavier bulk of money.

1425
01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:42,880
Speaker 4: Line play. Thanks a lot. We'll talk to you again

1426
01:11:42,920 --> 01:11:43,880
Speaker 4: next week, Evan.

1427
01:11:44,080 --> 01:11:45,920
Speaker 2: All right, that'll do it. Here for the Action Every

1428
01:11:45,960 --> 01:11:49,880
Speaker 2: Podcast for NFL Week two recap episode, give us a

1429
01:11:50,000 --> 01:11:52,280
Speaker 2: like on the YouTube video before you take off. We

1430
01:11:52,439 --> 01:11:56,280
Speaker 2: really really appreciate it, and don't forget to download the

1431
01:11:56,320 --> 01:11:59,240
Speaker 2: award winning free Action our Gap to see more from

1432
01:11:59,280 --> 01:12:02,679
Speaker 2: all of our Action Network contributors. Sign up for Action

1433
01:12:02,760 --> 01:12:05,719
Speaker 2: Pro for immediate notifications every time one of our action

1434
01:12:05,840 --> 01:12:09,160
Speaker 2: experts tracks a pick. Go to Actionnework dot Com slash Pro.

1435
01:12:09,520 --> 01:12:13,120
Speaker 2: Use the promo code Pod twenty Pod twenty for twenty

1436
01:12:13,120 --> 01:12:16,040
Speaker 2: hours off a year of Action Pro, and also check

1437
01:12:16,080 --> 01:12:18,280
Speaker 2: out the Auction Network discord server chop it up with

1438
01:12:18,320 --> 01:12:21,040
Speaker 2: our experts, fellow gamblers, or in these games. There's a

1439
01:12:21,080 --> 01:12:23,920
Speaker 2: link to join in the description of this podcast if

1440
01:12:23,960 --> 01:12:28,000
Speaker 2: you're on Twitter. Also, we have an amazing, awesome, ridiculous

1441
01:12:28,080 --> 01:12:30,840
Speaker 2: new feature. If you see a bet from any of

1442
01:12:30,880 --> 01:12:35,320
Speaker 2: your favorite Action experts or anyone on gambling Twitter, you

1443
01:12:35,360 --> 01:12:39,040
Speaker 2: can now tag at playbook and tell your bot to

1444
01:12:39,080 --> 01:12:41,879
Speaker 2: build you a betslip at a book of your choice.

1445
01:12:42,120 --> 01:12:44,679
Speaker 2: It will build out for you with a quick slip

1446
01:12:44,760 --> 01:12:48,519
Speaker 2: link that opens up right to your sportsbook. So check out,

1447
01:12:48,760 --> 01:12:52,280
Speaker 2: go check out our new tool at Playbook on Twitter.

1448
01:12:52,760 --> 01:12:56,280
Speaker 2: We will be back for Action Island before Monday Night's

1449
01:12:56,320 --> 01:12:59,479
Speaker 2: game right here on Action Networks YouTube page, as well

1450
01:12:59,520 --> 01:13:03,960
Speaker 2: as more NFL best bets from Brandon Raybon and Stucky

1451
01:13:04,040 --> 01:13:07,799
Speaker 2: six Back episode Anytime Touchdowns and more on the podcast

1452
01:13:07,880 --> 01:13:11,080
Speaker 2: feed next week. Thank you for listening, Good luck with

1453
01:13:11,120 --> 01:13:14,160
Speaker 2: all your bets, and let's put me to in the books.

1454
01:13:30,320 --> 01:13:34,880
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1455
01:13:34,880 --> 01:13:37,680
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1456
01:13:37,720 --> 01:13:40,799
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler