1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,840 Speaker 1: Strap on your parachute. It's time for What Goes Up 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: with Sarah Ponzick and Mike Reagan. Hello and welcome to 3 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,760 Speaker 1: What goes Up, a Bloomberg Weekly Markets podcast. I'm Sarah Ponzak, 4 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:20,920 Speaker 1: a reporter on the Cross Asset team, and I'm Mike Reagan, 5 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: a senior editor at Bloomberg. This week on the show, 6 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: the stock market maybe buying the vaccine optimism, but the 7 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: bond market isn't really budging Tina forever, or in other words, 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: there is no alternative in a world where low interest 9 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: rates have become the norm. Our guest walks us through 10 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 1: where to find alpha, and as always, don't fret. We 11 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: will close out the episode with our tradition the Craziest 12 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: Thing I saw in Markets this week, Sarah, I'm returning 13 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: to my roots in the alternative assets space for this 14 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 1: this segment this week, I've got to say I'm really 15 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: proud because a listener did right in and not only 16 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: did he righte in, he had a prices right for you. 17 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 1: So we're going to turn the tables on you and 18 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: you could also very much describe it in alternative assets. 19 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 1: So don't you worry. I like the prices right element 20 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 1: that listeners sliding into Sarah's DM. I believe what that's 21 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 1: known as that's what's happening lately. Alright, fine, that's good, 22 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 1: we'll accept. We'll accept submissions that week. Also, Sara, a 23 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: very perilous podcast this week because by my account, apart 24 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: from the guest who I'll introduced in a moment within 25 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: microphone range, we also have one puppy, one one year 26 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: old baby I believe a year and a half, and 27 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,960 Speaker 1: one really loud mouth dog that that's my dog. So 28 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,680 Speaker 1: so this should be interesting. I don't be for success. 29 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: I think we should at a cat. I believe a 30 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: cat as well, So we should have a pool to 31 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 1: see which which of these disrupts the content first. But hopefully, 32 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: hopefully we'll get through it with some silence from all 33 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: the dogs and babies and cats part of the what 34 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: goes up team here. But let's get to that guest 35 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: first time on the show. We're very happy to have him. 36 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: He is the managing director of t Assets Solutions at 37 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: Man Solutions, which is a division of Man Group, the 38 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: big hedge fund firm. His name is Peter vander Wert. Peter, 39 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. Hi, Thanks for having me. It's 40 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: nice of a here, Yeah, Peter, I wanted to just 41 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: start off by since Man Group is such a big company, 42 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: runs a lot of different funds, a lot of different strategies. 43 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:22,640 Speaker 1: I'm just curious what the how the Solutions group works 44 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: into the firm and your role specifically. I mean, my 45 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: impression is that the solution groups kind of creates bespoke 46 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: portfolios based on what certain clients need. Is is that 47 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: a fair assessment of what you guys do? Yeah, that's 48 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 1: exactly right. So what we do in Man Solutions we 49 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 1: reach across the engine. So Man has basically four distinct 50 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 1: meaningful engines. We have a pure discretionary group called g LG. 51 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 1: We've got a quant arm called h L which does 52 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: a lot of trend and systematic strategies. We have Numeric 53 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: which does more equity trading quantimental, and then some private markets. 54 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: Man Solutions kind of reaches across those various engines looking 55 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: for things that we can use to help clients, whether 56 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: it's based on risk control or generating now uh, but 57 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: in a bespoke way. So the real overarching goal at 58 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: Man solish is a bit to deconstruct the hedge fund 59 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 1: and deliver exactly what clients need as opposed to trying 60 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 1: to just keep giving them the same product or the 61 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,839 Speaker 1: same product pitch. So to keep it pretty broad, I mean, 62 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: considering where we stand in like you mentioned, bond yield 63 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: extremely low, how much growth have you seen and how 64 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: difficult has it become to kind of create come up 65 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: with creative new solutions to get through the environment that 66 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:30,959 Speaker 1: we've been living in. So a lot of our clients 67 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: are basically institutional investors. So the types that are grappling 68 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: with the broad bond problem for two reasons. And you know, 69 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: the first half of the problem is that yields are 70 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: really low and they have pretty high return objectives. Right, 71 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: So your average pension in the US needs to make 72 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: seven percent to meet the return target. If you own 73 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 1: a one percent yielding as that, you're really not going 74 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: to get there easily. Right, You need that much exactly, 75 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: you need that much more contribution from bonds. And so 76 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: that's problem number one. And problem number two is sixty 77 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 1: been really easy to run statically, Right, That's just it's 78 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 1: a made up number. It's a made up construct. It's 79 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: worked for thirty years and everyone quite likes it. Right, 80 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: But if you get past the made up nous of it, 81 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: it happens to be pretty stable because bonds contribute during 82 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: a crash, and I think there's an increasing concern that 83 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 1: maybe bonds don't have that much left to give in 84 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 1: the next crash. So if I don't make much money 85 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: and yield, and I don't get much out of a crash, 86 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: then what is it doing in my portfolio at all? 87 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: As the question we get, Yeah, I'm glad you bring 88 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 1: that up, Peter. I feel like I've edited about straight 89 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: stories about the death of sixty forty and what's what's 90 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 1: replacing everything in that? You sound like you're on the 91 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 1: front lines of that. Is there really this legitimate groundswell 92 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: of people trying to reimagine that sixty? And granted, like 93 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 1: as you said, that's a made up number, maybe you're 94 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 1: really seventy thirty or fifty fifty if you're more conservative, 95 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: but it really does seem like there's this mad dash 96 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,039 Speaker 1: to to sort of replace that forty with something a 97 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 1: little bit uh, you know, better yielding than than treasuries 98 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: at this point, you know, the sixty is kind of 99 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: the straw man that everyone uses that. I mean, by 100 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: and large, i'd love to tell you that all of 101 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 1: our pensions are treasuries, but I mean they've already taken 102 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: a sneaky walk away from sovereign bonds, and they've picked 103 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: up more corporate credit. They've picked up some high yield, 104 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: so the forty doesn't exactly look like treasury bonds. The sixty, though, 105 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: really does look a lot like equities, so that part 106 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 1: you know they're still looking for a return. And so 107 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: one of the arguments I do get though, for people 108 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: who use treasuries and still rely on them, as if 109 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 1: you're a big five billion pension or a huge institution, 110 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,840 Speaker 1: what can you get that scalable like bonds are scalable. 111 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 1: The nice thing about US deficit spending is that there's 112 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 1: trillion of bonds available if you need to use them. 113 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: It's pretty hard to say I can get thirty trillion 114 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: of gold, unless you know Elon Musk succeeds and sends 115 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:48,919 Speaker 1: something to an asteroid and minds a bunch of gold 116 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: up there and brings it back, at which point it 117 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,559 Speaker 1: might not be worth exactly what you thought it was worth, 118 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:57,720 Speaker 1: but at least you have enough gold for your portfolio. Solution, Sarah, 119 00:05:57,760 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: I think Peter has been listening to to my strategy 120 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: there that I think so too. We've we've brought up 121 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 1: the asteroid a fair amount of times. I think it's 122 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: come up on the last three shows somehow, I promise you, 123 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: but I agree the topic. I think is the only 124 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 1: one who will be able to do it, and I 125 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: think it perfectly finally explains Tesla's valuations. But you realize 126 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: there's a Twilight Zone episode that's predicated on them finding 127 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: infinite amount of gold and they like go into like 128 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 1: some kind of deep sleep. They wake up five hundred 129 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: years later and gold is worthless because there's infinite amount 130 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: of gold in the world, so that the end isn't 131 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: really good. You know, you you bring up you do 132 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: bring up gold, And I want to ask you about gold, Peter, 133 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: what is the role of gold in a portfolio? Right now? 134 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 1: I feel like this year there has been a lot 135 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 1: of back and forth about the use of gold. Some say, yes, 136 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: it's an inflation hedge, Others say it's just a safe 137 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: haven um. Lately, though, the narrative has been that we're 138 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: going to get a vaccine, whether it's from Visor and Maderna, 139 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: a mix of the two, or even more we'll see 140 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 1: growth pickup, we'll see inflation pick up. But gold has 141 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: not been rising as it did earlier in the year. 142 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 1: It's been falling, Like, what, what's the situation there? What's 143 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: the case? Well, I think the problem with gold when 144 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: people talk about is this tendency that we need to 145 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: explain to day's move based on something. Right, stocks were down, 146 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 1: marketing crisis, gold is up, or you know something inflation 147 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: is showing up, gold is up. I think if we 148 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 1: really bottom line what's happening is, first, the Fed's kept 149 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 1: rates low, so gold is an alternative, is not painful 150 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: to carry, so there's nothing wrong with that. I do 151 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 1: think there's a narrative calling it a safe haven. You 152 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: know Cam Harvey, who you may have hund on before. 153 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 1: I think it has talked about as a safe haven, 154 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: and I'm kind of with him. It's a little hard 155 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 1: on portfolio construction to have assets that fall with equities 156 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 1: as frequently as gold does, and it's a high vaal 157 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: asset rights sev vold. It's as vulnatble as equities are, 158 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: so it's not the easiest thing to use in your 159 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: portfolio as a safe haven. But I see the logic 160 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: of it right, you can kind of feel reliable. On 161 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 1: the flip side, the inflation bit Cam has written a 162 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: lot about that, you know, the fact that it seems 163 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 1: like gold prices way outstripped the level of inflation. What 164 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 1: you see is it seems to be low level of 165 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: rates that's pushing gold higher. So gold is quite correlated 166 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: to bonds. So if I'm a big pension, I say, 167 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 1: how do I replace my bonds? Maybe I should use gold. 168 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: The first thing I find is that when equities fall, 169 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 1: sometimes it falls, so that's not a good bond replacement. 170 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: And the second thing I find is, over the last 171 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: twenty years, it's been very correlated to bonds, which means 172 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: if bonds fall, it's likely gold fall. So that means 173 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 1: I'm replacing a bond with something that's behaving a bit 174 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: like a bond on a risk basis. So the whole 175 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 1: narrative works. If the FED keeps rates controlled and we 176 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 1: have inflation, that's when you want to own gold. It's 177 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 1: a pretty narrow subset of things that might happen to 178 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: make that really work. But then you'll see a funds 179 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 1: and I think gold is very much a flow of 180 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: funds thing. You know, as much money and sentiment builds up, 181 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: it keeps going and going and going, and so we 182 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 1: like looking at that more on a trend basis, maybe 183 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 1: you know, owning it in the trend and getting rid 184 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: of it if the trend breaks, and using it in 185 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: that kind of construction. But I think the big dilemma 186 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: for all investors again the scalable concept, would you replacet 187 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 1: of your portfolio with gold, And first you probably wouldn't. Second, 188 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: there actually isn't enough gold out there right. The World 189 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:30,559 Speaker 1: Gold Council has a cool website. You can check out 190 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 1: a gold dot org and they tell you kind of 191 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: what they think how much gold is above the ground 192 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: and how much is in the ground. And there's a 193 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: few trillion dollars of gold left in the ground. So 194 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 1: that's not enough for the two trillion of financial assets 195 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: to use as a diversifier. So in a way, gold 196 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: is in terms of what could cause a superspike. There's 197 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: not enough gold out there. But it's also its own 198 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: worst enemy because you know, if everyone needs it, there's 199 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: just not enough of it. So it kind of doesn't 200 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 1: fit a solution unless you're a niche investor. And so 201 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:00,959 Speaker 1: I do think some of our investors are a bit 202 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: guilty of saying it's not scalable, so I won't use it. Well, 203 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 1: it's scalable if you're running ten twenty billion dollars, right, 204 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: It just isn't scalable for everyone. But I think of 205 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: reliability is really the key thing, right, doesn't fit my portfolio? 206 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: Is it reliable? Does it kind of do what I want? 207 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: If it goes down a lot in a crash, it's 208 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 1: draining liquidity from me where bonds have historically given me liquidity. 209 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: That's a big problem, right, So I think, well, we 210 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 1: look at portfolio constructions. We want to make sure that 211 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 1: the hedge like things, the diversifiers, don't take liquidity from you. Right. 212 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: It seems to me, um difficult, maybe impossible that if 213 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 1: you are trying to replace that or whatever your your 214 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:40,080 Speaker 1: bond allocation is that you pretty much have to embrace 215 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: more risk to do that, which is kind of goes 216 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,559 Speaker 1: against the grain of why you you have that in 217 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 1: the safety of bonds to begin with. And what alternative 218 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 1: I've I've heard a few times is well, look at 219 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,560 Speaker 1: some of the real cyclical currencies, you know, and if 220 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: if you're you know, want sort of a hedge against 221 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: an economic slowdown. You could shut some of the glocal currencies. 222 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: I guess, you know, maybe the keywi or the Ausy 223 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 1: dollar or something like that that strikes me as especially risky. 224 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 1: But is that, you know, does that fit into a 225 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 1: possible body replacement? Is is sort of dabbling in the 226 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: currency markets because I gotta say, you know, it's it's 227 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 1: a treacherous place for people who aren't sort of dedicated 228 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 1: to to that macro look view of the world and 229 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:22,839 Speaker 1: and the currency. So you know, if I don't love 230 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 1: gold given some of its risk attributes, and and it 231 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 1: does work, I think in some portfolio constructions over a 232 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 1: long term currencies are going to be a bit of 233 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:33,559 Speaker 1: a worry. So we do run hedging businesses tailheage type 234 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 1: portfolios for clients. And actually Ausi dollar is one of 235 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 1: those currencies that does really badly in deflationary times. It's 236 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: pretty reliable, and we like using options around it because 237 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: options are often very cheap, so it's pretty cool to 238 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 1: use in a solution with a lot of different things 239 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 1: that might be going. So you have option hedges and 240 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: indices and currencies and gold and credit as a composite 241 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: that works pretty well, but if you're gonna start relying 242 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: on it again for its slug of the fort there's 243 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 1: a couple of things you gotta make sure you're right. 244 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:05,200 Speaker 1: Pretty much, you feel comfortable in deflationary regime, but I 245 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 1: bet you've had a lot of conversations about inflationary regimes lately, 246 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: and you know, what is all this fiscal stimulus going 247 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: to do? And how how is it gonna look? Well, 248 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 1: those currencies that look deflationary and bad times are going 249 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,679 Speaker 1: to go up in inflationary regimes, right, we should feel 250 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: confident that commodities will go up with inflation, and so 251 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,680 Speaker 1: Ausie dollar could That means if you're not using options, 252 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 1: you have kind of unlimited upside downside on this stuff, right. 253 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: And so if we're going to use the Ausie dollar 254 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: and you're saying short it as a kind of a 255 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: safe haven or a protective instrument for your portfolio, a 256 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: big inflationary regime could be a bit of a shock, right, 257 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: And the same might be for Canadian currency commodities. So 258 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: there's there's quite a bit of difficulty anytime we start 259 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 1: going a further afield from you know what bonds have done, right, 260 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 1: Bonds were kind of always a nice risk off set. 261 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 1: But one of the things we haven't even mentioned is 262 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: that correlations could change. Right, Bond equity correlation has been 263 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: very reliable, and so we haven't been challenged with a 264 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 1: unit firs where bonds and equities go down simultaneously since 265 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 1: the nineties, right, maybe the seventies in terms of meanings 266 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,839 Speaker 1: full size. I think what we're going to see is 267 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: a lot of regime shifts going forward. I don't think 268 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: we have a good grasp on what the aftershocks of 269 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: the pandemic are, so we can have a lot of 270 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 1: movement and currencies, a lot of movement in bonds different 271 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: than what we're expecting. So you kind of alluded to 272 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: where we're going with the bondary replacement argument in a sense, 273 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 1: and maybe it's a two part discussion. The first part 274 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: is should you replace bonds? And the second part is 275 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: if you decide you shouldn't you know, do you go 276 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: to a a hundred percent risk on? And then what you know, 277 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 1: how do you deal with a crash? And I think 278 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: you kind of said maybe you should just go a 279 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 1: d percent risk on And that's a little bit what 280 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 1: we're looking at. What does it look like with a 281 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 1: hundred percent risk on what are the tails, what are 282 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: the crashes look and what can you do to mitigate 283 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 1: that crash risk? And you know, in our business people 284 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 1: have been trying to replicate bonds for decades, and so 285 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: they would take a bunch of positive carry stuff and 286 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: staple it together, glue it in a basket, take a 287 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 1: bunch of tail hedges and trend and interesting kind of 288 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 1: defensive looking things and glue that together, mush it all 289 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: together and make this Frankenstein that was going to be 290 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: a bond replacement. And you can tell that I'm not 291 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: a strong advocate of doing that kind of stuff um 292 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 1: these days. Though, if I start with a construct that 293 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: bonds don't make anything, then maybe the construct for me 294 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: is just to build something that's risk mitigating, right and 295 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: try to reduce a drag. And that's the first step 296 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: to having an all risk portfolio. So on that note, 297 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 1: something you said that really resonates is the fact that 298 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: we don't really know what the aftermath of the COVID 299 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 1: nineteen chok is really going to look like. And it 300 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: makes me wonder, how can you go about having any 301 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: conviction in portfolio construction or whatever it may be going 302 00:14:56,840 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 1: forwards from this point in time when they're still are 303 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: so many unknowns and so many questions about what the 304 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 1: economy is going to look like post COVID one, we 305 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: are actually even going to get to a post COVID world, 306 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 1: I mean, it's really difficult to kind of make any decisions. 307 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: Feels like it does feel like that, And and the 308 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: best way to kind of articulate our view on that 309 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 1: as a firm is take a look at all the 310 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: forecasts for the market at the beginning of the last 311 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 1: four years right, and the strategists never get it right. 312 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 1: And and we're not saying we're smarter, we're saying we 313 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 1: probably wouldn't get it right either. We've got Cambridge and 314 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: Oxford QUANTZ running all over the place in London, and 315 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 1: nobody's pretending that they can get that right. And so 316 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: if none of us really can come together and get 317 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: pretty decent forecasts, you know, as it is, if everyone's 318 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: forecasts were right, then the market woul immediately moved to 319 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 1: the forecast right. We can kind of accept this as 320 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 1: an odd tautology, but given that none of us can 321 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 1: forecast it right, our view is that going forward, we 322 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 1: can't get the regimes. It's not quite the same as 323 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 1: we remember everything. So maybe directly attacking risk is the 324 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: way you have to go. So, you know, tail hedging 325 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: is very expensive, but there are things you can do 326 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 1: with futures, and there are other things you can do 327 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 1: to start attacking the specific risk profile of your portfolio. 328 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 1: And I think the whole conversation about bonds, you never 329 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: really had to explain any to anyone how well bonds 330 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 1: didn't make as much during a crisis as we thought 331 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: because they kind of kept doing what you needed to. Now, 332 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: going back to the gold and the FX and tailhaging, 333 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: all these conversations, when they don't work, you wind up 334 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 1: with this. What happened was conversation and and no c 335 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: I O of a pension or no investor in a fund, 336 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: No one likes to hear what happened was as the 337 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: first few words introducing what went wrong? Right, Nobody ever 338 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: says what happened was, we really did a great job 339 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 1: and we made a lot of money for you. It's 340 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: always what happened was different from what we expected. And 341 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 1: so you know, as we talk about bond replacements, what 342 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 1: we really want to have is things that just directly 343 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 1: attacked the exact risk we have and maybe we have 344 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: to accept that there's a drag associated with doing that 345 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 1: kind of exact risk attacks. Oh you know, if I'm 346 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 1: going to use the Japanese yend the hedge equities and 347 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,919 Speaker 1: it doesn't work, I can lose a lot. Whereas if 348 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,119 Speaker 1: I use you know, puts and I spent a little 349 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 1: too much, I know it's gonna work. And that's the 350 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 1: real tension, Like how do I reconcile between the cost 351 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 1: of mitigating risk and the potential return? Sir? I I 352 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: can't get that image of Cambridge and uh, who's the 353 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,120 Speaker 1: other one? Where the clans for Cambridge Cambridge at Oxford 354 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: quantz running all over London. It's it sounds like a 355 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 1: muddy python or a Betty Hills kids. And the truth 356 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 1: is they probably never moved from their desks. But period, 357 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,520 Speaker 1: you know, you bring up tail risk kedging and I 358 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 1: assume the best I don't know, Maybe the only way 359 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 1: to do that is in is in the options market. Um, 360 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 1: and what a crazy year it's been for the options market. 361 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 1: I mean, we we've come around to this idea that 362 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: the retail day traders of the world sort of became 363 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 1: almost this new whale in the options market, and correct 364 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 1: me if I think if I'm sort of off based 365 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 1: in that description, but at least in the press, that's 366 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:08,120 Speaker 1: kind of the picture that's been presented. Has this new 367 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: sort of mom and pop or maybe it's college kid 368 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: in a basement day trader, this whole new class of 369 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:18,639 Speaker 1: of options player. Have they really shifted sort of the 370 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 1: complexion of the options market? Is it a permanent shift? 371 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,400 Speaker 1: And you know, boy, I would think for a sophisticated 372 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 1: shop like yours, that's kind of easy pickings to sort 373 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: of to sort of exploit this kind of this kind 374 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: of new fast money coming into the market. I know 375 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 1: that's a twelve part. I was actually thinking that was 376 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:44,359 Speaker 1: ten parts, but that's less. But answer however many parts 377 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: you feel like it's a bit like quiz sho. I'll 378 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:50,680 Speaker 1: take the fourth part first. So so the first part, 379 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 1: you know, maybe i'll broadly talk about what I think 380 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 1: is happening in option. So to begin with the retail 381 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 1: dynamic is a big change. So we used to see 382 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: retail investors buying the short vall et F products like 383 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 1: the x I V and of course we all remember 384 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 1: the spectacular outcome and keep in mind that the VALL 385 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 1: industry has created a long vall only product called the 386 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 1: v x X, which is down from it's high, and 387 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: created a short VAUL product that was loss in a day. 388 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: So you know, it's the same underlying after all. So 389 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 1: it's a little confusing I think too investors. But they 390 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 1: still they keep seem want to come back to these 391 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 1: sort of things, these these structured products. But what I 392 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 1: will say is that's a shift one that they're really 393 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,920 Speaker 1: not selling vall the same magnitude as they used to be. 394 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:37,880 Speaker 1: And and you are right, they've turned buyer of sorts. Right, 395 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: So just looking at the top five text stocks, we 396 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 1: saw about thirty billion dollars in in volume a day 397 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: trading in two thousand nineteen. Decent sized number, it sounds 398 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 1: like a lot. That number in August of this year 399 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 1: was as high as a hundred twenty billion, so that's 400 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 1: a lot. And retail investors, you know, there's a big 401 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: day trading component. They tend to want to buy low 402 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: cost options. That doesn't mean they're cheap, that means they're 403 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: short order dated, right, A one year option costs a 404 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: lot more than a one week and if you want 405 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 1: the most bang for your buck, especially as a day trader, 406 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: you'll go for short dated options. So that's a real 407 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 1: dynamic their net buying them, the market makers who sell 408 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 1: them have to kind of hedge around it. They have 409 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 1: to make a lot of moves sup portfolio. So we 410 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 1: saw some vall spikes even as the market was going up, 411 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 1: Vault was going up. That's a pretty unusual phenomenon. We 412 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: only saw it kind of. You could flippantly say, we 413 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 1: know how that ended, but it took a while for 414 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: that to end. Right, So it's a transitory thing that 415 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 1: retails playing a lot of options, but how long at lasts? 416 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 1: You know, it could be a work from home for thing. 417 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: We can probably attribute something to that. If you're making 418 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 1: some money, you keep doing it. So that's one. But 419 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 1: there are a number of other transitory and structural changes 420 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,439 Speaker 1: to the market, and maybe I'll run through them quickly. 421 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 1: You know, the elections passed, that was transitory, or at 422 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: least it's almost past, you know, so let's assume it's past. Yes, 423 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: we'll just have we'll footnoted in you know, typical fashion 424 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 1: subject to terms and conditions, what where they um? So, 425 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 1: so that's passed two degree? Right, we still have the 426 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: George outcome. I don't know that changes the balance of 427 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: power enough to have big legislation, but that's there. The pandemic, 428 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,479 Speaker 1: although it doesn't feel transitories after all, transitory as well, right, 429 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:16,440 Speaker 1: So at some point the pandemic will be over and 430 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,880 Speaker 1: things will normalize and maybe that's unfortunately a year out 431 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 1: or less, depends on your vaccine view. So those transitory 432 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 1: things passed, but they're largely responsible for the fact that 433 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: volves about double where it was when the SMP was 434 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,479 Speaker 1: here earlier in the year, so doubles a lot higher. 435 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: So that's kind of we need to see that all 436 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: clear up. But there's the structural change, which we keep 437 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: coming back to the same problem, which is the bond problem. 438 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 1: You know, if bonds aren't the best thing to diversify 439 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,639 Speaker 1: your portfolio and protect you, it may mean that you're 440 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: going to tailhedging. And so although tailhdging is twice as 441 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 1: expensive now as it was in January, people might be 442 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,919 Speaker 1: more drawn to it, partially because they need to do 443 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 1: something defensive with less return from bonds potentially going forward, 444 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: and secondarily because the market has gone up a heck 445 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 1: of a lot, and so you know, an option might 446 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:08,119 Speaker 1: look expensive to a professional vall guy, but to someone 447 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 1: buying a PUT saying, I think this marketing, it's cheap 448 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 1: to the intellectual scenario of things could be really bad. 449 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 1: And that's certainly true in tech stocks. Right, we have 450 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: plenty of stocks. If it costs you five percent to 451 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,719 Speaker 1: buy out of the money put, if everything goes back 452 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: to normal, you just made seventy in your head, right, 453 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,880 Speaker 1: that seems pretty good. And so I think that's part 454 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 1: of the dynamic as well. I think it's that time. Oh, 455 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:35,119 Speaker 1: it is that time. Indeed, hopefully Peter came prepared for 456 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: that time. I was forewarned that very special time. Stand 457 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: clear of the craziest things we saw in markets this week, Sara, 458 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 1: Let's start with whoever is sliding into your d M s. 459 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 1: I I no one slides into my d M S. 460 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 1: I don't know why. I don't no idea. I'm gonna 461 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 1: every next time someone mice on Twitter, Reaganonymous, it's a 462 00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:01,880 Speaker 1: great Twitter handle. The ms are open. Good, what did 463 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,199 Speaker 1: what they say? So we're gonna play a little bit 464 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:09,400 Speaker 1: of prices, right. This comes from at Jamie Blascow. B Uh, 465 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,119 Speaker 1: he said, maybe you can play the price is right 466 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: with Mike this time. So I'm gonna run you through 467 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: this scenario here, both of you. Basically a racing pigeon. 468 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: Uh So, first of all, I did not know that 469 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 1: pigeon racing was a thing. Apparently it very much is. 470 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,879 Speaker 1: But there was an auction recently for a racing pigeon. 471 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 1: I'll give you some details. Belgian bread, supposedly top of 472 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 1: the pack. Um, So, how much do you think this 473 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: racing pigeon went for? Oh? I like this guy. I 474 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: can't participate because I read this, so I'm not going 475 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,440 Speaker 1: to pretend air edition. I don't have I told you 476 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 1: you're a natural at this Peter, I should have just 477 00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 1: gone for like five thousand dollars away from the price, 478 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:03,400 Speaker 1: but we would have been amazed at how how correct 479 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: you were. Does this pigeon have a record, you know, 480 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 1: win loss record? We can look at um. So I 481 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 1: don't have the win loss record in front of me. However, 482 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 1: I can tell you that this is a winning pigeon. 483 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 1: This is this is an elite pigeon. You're telling this 484 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: is the the Hussain Bolt of pigeons. I take exactly 485 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 1: Okay for that pigeon, I would bid five dollars for 486 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 1: that pigeon. That's actually pretty good at a starting point, 487 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,359 Speaker 1: because I was in the tens just thinking there's a 488 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 1: crazy person who's got ten. All right, you're ready for this, 489 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 1: You're ready for this. A wealthy Chinese pigeon racing fan 490 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,439 Speaker 1: put down a record price at one point six million euros, 491 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:48,120 Speaker 1: which comes out to one point nine million dollars for 492 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: this one. And the purpose, I guess is he already 493 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 1: owns another pigeon that is also an elite pigeon, and 494 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:56,919 Speaker 1: I think the goal is to breathe the two to 495 00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 1: create an extra elite Oh oh my god. It's a 496 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:06,120 Speaker 1: like making bitcoin at that price. So race mining mining pigeons, well, 497 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 1: well now I'm fat. Now I I will not be 498 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 1: able to think of anything else until I research racing pigeons. 499 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 1: It's going to get really into pigeon racing. Now, grab 500 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: now you now that you're getting into you know that 501 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,680 Speaker 1: that that bubbles over exactly, that's right, I know, right, yeah. 502 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,480 Speaker 1: Once I find out out about it, I'm like the 503 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 1: shoeshine boy of the pigeon racing world. I got it. 504 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 1: It's amazing. I got a head it to that guy. 505 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 1: That's pretty good, I I said to him immediately, I said, yes, 506 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,479 Speaker 1: this is amazing. I will absolutely play prices right with Mike, 507 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 1: and I'm glad that we got to flip the tables 508 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 1: on you this time. Because it's it's a hard game. 509 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 1: You have nothing to compare it to. You have no 510 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 1: idea what a previous racing pigeon has gone for. It's difficult. 511 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 1: I know the price discovery and racing pigeons, but yeah, 512 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 1: it is bad. All you have to be is anchored, 513 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,480 Speaker 1: and you could just be wrong. I thought I thought 514 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 1: I was going to anchor you by saying five thousand 515 00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,160 Speaker 1: dollars off because I thought you'd be in the hundred 516 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:05,479 Speaker 1: thousand range by so much for behavioral finance, almost two million. 517 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:07,199 Speaker 1: But I mean it makes you. It leads you to 518 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,159 Speaker 1: believe that there are people that must be betting some 519 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 1: pretty serious bucks on on racing pigeons. If you're gonna 520 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:13,680 Speaker 1: if you're gonna buy one for two million, I mean, 521 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:17,440 Speaker 1: that's like a thoroughbred Kentucky Derby winner type of pa. 522 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,280 Speaker 1: Maybe not a winner, but I'm very confused about how 523 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 1: is there a track set up for the pigeons? They 524 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 1: can fly? How do they stay on the track. I 525 00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:26,680 Speaker 1: don't really understand. I guess I'm gonna have to look 526 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,680 Speaker 1: this up, but I think this is in the messenger 527 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:35,320 Speaker 1: pigeon genre. Yeah, if I didn't, I didn't read the 528 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,360 Speaker 1: whole article because once you get past the price, you're 529 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,880 Speaker 1: kind of, you know, intellectually, it's hard to say what's 530 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 1: gonna what's gonna compel me to really say this is 531 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:48,240 Speaker 1: the right price? And it totally fits right, all right, Peter, Well, 532 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 1: I gotta say, you got a tough, tough factor beat. 533 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,880 Speaker 1: Can you beat the racing pigeon for one point nine million? 534 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,440 Speaker 1: Was it? Wow? Well, no, I can't give you absurd 535 00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:00,160 Speaker 1: because it's you know, that's that's at But the thing 536 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,640 Speaker 1: that I thought was pretty interesting. So after the vaccine hits, 537 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,119 Speaker 1: we we saw big shifts in momentum stocks. You know, 538 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,160 Speaker 1: growth got a decent hit and maybe value gotta jump. 539 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,120 Speaker 1: But one of the things I thought was pretty fascinating 540 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:11,920 Speaker 1: just watching Zoom over the course of the year. And 541 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,120 Speaker 1: I'm not making an opinion at all about the relative 542 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,399 Speaker 1: valuation of Zoom, whether you should buy or sell it, 543 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 1: because that's not our bag. But I do think it's 544 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 1: pretty fascinating watching a stock go from seventeen billion to 545 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,960 Speaker 1: a hundred sixty billion, you know, as a replacement to 546 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 1: the entire airline sector in the U S and the 547 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 1: entire hotel sector, And so Zoom at one point was 548 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 1: worth more than those two sectors combined. And actually I thought, Okay, 549 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 1: well that's crazy. But then after the vaccine hits, Zoom 550 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: fell fifty billion in market cap and those two sectors 551 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,200 Speaker 1: picked up fifty billion in market cap. So I thought 552 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 1: it was just kind of a fascinating maybe that's how 553 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 1: it was supposed to turn out kind of day. Regardless 554 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 1: of whether you think Zoom should replace the entire airline 555 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,239 Speaker 1: and lodging industry in the United States or so, I 556 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 1: thought it was pretty interesting. And it's a sign of 557 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:57,800 Speaker 1: a lot of things that are going on in the market. 558 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,240 Speaker 1: So even when we see the market steadily churning a 559 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,959 Speaker 1: bit higher, there's a lot of crazy stuff going on 560 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 1: beneath the surface of this, and a lot of rotations. 561 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 1: And you know, what's Zoom worth, what's you know, what's 562 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:10,679 Speaker 1: work from home look like a year from now? And 563 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 1: I think we all got to grapple with that, in 564 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,440 Speaker 1: addition to all the other things we've got to worry 565 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:18,639 Speaker 1: about in our portfolios. Absolutely, absolutely, that's a pretty clean rotation. 566 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 1: They're fifty billion out of Zoom and it was straightforward 567 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,400 Speaker 1: just but you've got a lot of planes and hotels 568 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 1: for that, right. It's pretty amazing when you look at 569 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 1: some of the runs, some of the pickups and market 570 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,679 Speaker 1: cap that we've seen in individual companies this year and 571 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 1: what's come out of entire industries and just comparing them, 572 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 1: I mean, it is, it's absolutely, it's wild. And after all, 573 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 1: Amazon pioneered this right in retail spaces very small market 574 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 1: cap to Amazon's market capitalization related to retail, right, And 575 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:53,000 Speaker 1: so they're converting ten pe multiple kind of businesses into 576 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 1: hundred multiple right, So every dollar they take has a 577 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 1: huge multiple sign. So I guess it's okay in that context, 578 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 1: but it's pretty fascinating to to to watch it kind 579 00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 1: of evolve over time. Yeah, it doesn't seem sustainable in 580 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 1: the longer run though, I guess, well, it never feels sustainable. 581 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 1: But then, I mean, in two thousand, would you have 582 00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 1: guessed that Amazon would be worth a trillion and a half. 583 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 1: You would. I'm the tailheage guy, so I would have 584 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 1: been sitting there and in two thousand two. I would 585 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 1: have had all this, you know, victory celebrating. All right, 586 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,480 Speaker 1: I gotta prices right for you too. Now, Uh, this 587 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 1: is in the alternative asset space. And when I say alternative, 588 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 1: I mean it, uh maybe not, maybe not. That's about 589 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:40,600 Speaker 1: as alternative as it gets. This is uh courtesy the BBC. Uh. 590 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 1: This was an auction that occurred in in the UK, 591 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 1: so you'll have to price this in uh in sterling. 592 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:51,320 Speaker 1: A lock of Elvis Presley's hair sold at auction in 593 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 1: the UK. Apparently Elvis had this barber who used to 594 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 1: travel around with him and cut his hair. And the guy, 595 00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 1: I would you know, the hair that would fall into 596 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,560 Speaker 1: like the smock that he put around Elvis. He'd packed 597 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 1: it up, putting in his bag, and then when he'd 598 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 1: get home, he'd unload all this hair and say, you know, 599 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:07,840 Speaker 1: maybe the fans would like this, so we'd give out 600 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 1: little snippets of hair to fans. And then I guess 601 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 1: the guy went broke and started selling the locks of 602 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,760 Speaker 1: hair to two people. So this Elvis hairlock was sold 603 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 1: to a collector who resold it recently in the UK 604 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,560 Speaker 1: in pounds sterling. Peter, what would you pay for a 605 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,320 Speaker 1: a lock of Elvis Presley's hair. Well, that's a great 606 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 1: out because you just told me what I would pay, 607 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 1: so I don't actually have to get and I can 608 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 1: say I would say I pay very little for it 609 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 1: because I just wouldn't believe it's real. Okay, well rephrased 610 00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,440 Speaker 1: any way, just just you know, let's say I had 611 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 1: to make a market for like and so I'm gonna 612 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:46,959 Speaker 1: I just don't think it's worth a pigeon. So I'm 613 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 1: gonna sit there quietly at a hundred thousand and and 614 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,760 Speaker 1: and call it a day. It's the most I feel 615 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 1: like I can lose on this, and you know, maybe 616 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 1: I can find someone a year or two. All Right, 617 00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,360 Speaker 1: I'm trying to keep my poker face and not give 618 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 1: it away. Sarah, I feel like I have a comparison here, 619 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 1: so Peter, just so you know. In another in another episode, Mike, 620 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 1: I kid, you not brought us, uh, Michael Jackson's ivy basket, 621 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 1: which went for a lot less than we had expected 622 00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:20,040 Speaker 1: it to go for it. It's extremely creepy. It's very creepy. 623 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 1: But what I'm thinking is that if Michael Jackson's ivy 624 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 1: basket went for much less, than expected. Then hair lock 625 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,240 Speaker 1: can't have no way. It went for a hundred thousands, 626 00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:35,200 Speaker 1: so I'm gonna go a little bit lower. Uh, I'm 627 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 1: gonna go with thirty thousand. And I still think I'm okay. 628 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,080 Speaker 1: I like that deductive reasoning you employed in there. I 629 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 1: like going first. I was gonna guess over. I would 630 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 1: have guessed over both of you guys, because again I 631 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,840 Speaker 1: think I feel like the hair. You could clone Elvis 632 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,959 Speaker 1: with this hair. Someday some mad scientists could clone Elvis. 633 00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,720 Speaker 1: So you gotta you gotta factor that into evaluation. But 634 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:03,640 Speaker 1: there's only four thousand quid that it was really low. Yeah, yeah, yeah, 635 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,520 Speaker 1: I'm with you. I think it's a six figure collectible. 636 00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: But I guess who knows. Maybe this barber has just 637 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 1: flooded the market with Elvis sarabocks. Yeah. Well, let's hope 638 00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 1: that the listeners don't actually attribute my skill at pricing 639 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,960 Speaker 1: construction skill. Most people don't want to erode all The 640 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:29,280 Speaker 1: tax avoidance of my strategy is quite good, I am, honestly, 641 00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 1: I am. There's nothing to compare them to. I am 642 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 1: so off every single week. It's tough. I picked I 643 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 1: picked the tough ones. I picked up I would I 644 00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,040 Speaker 1: would tell you though, you guys, I would have I 645 00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 1: would have taken I would have gone above both you 646 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 1: so so so pretty good, good, good good answers, I think, 647 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 1: But sorry, is that? Are you off the hook then? 648 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 1: With your didn't come with one? And Peter and I've 649 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 1: got to do it just because we haven't mentioned it 650 00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,920 Speaker 1: in so long. Uh and again this could also be 651 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 1: described as a cop out, but I'm going to go 652 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,960 Speaker 1: ahead and mention bitcoin because we've a rise about eighteen 653 00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:05,520 Speaker 1: thousand for the first time, up a hundred this year. 654 00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 1: It's almost as if it came out of nowhere. At 655 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 1: the beginning of the air we close to seven thousand, 656 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:14,800 Speaker 1: so bitcoin hype coming back pretty crazy. You could buy 657 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 1: four Elvis hairlocks from one bitcoin at this point. Well, 658 00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:21,000 Speaker 1: I know the three of us could chat for likely 659 00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 1: hours longer, but I know we've already gone well over 660 00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,720 Speaker 1: our time limit, so we've got to leave it there. 661 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,040 Speaker 1: Peter van joy Wert, thank you so much for joining 662 00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,000 Speaker 1: us today. Yeah, thank you for having It's quite fun. 663 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 1: What goes up. We'll be back next week. Until then, 664 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,200 Speaker 1: you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and 665 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,640 Speaker 1: app or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love it 666 00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,560 Speaker 1: if you took the time to rate and review the 667 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,479 Speaker 1: show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners can find us. 668 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 1: And you can find us on Twitter, follow me at 669 00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,880 Speaker 1: Sarah pont Sec, Mike is that Reaganonymous, and you can 670 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:03,080 Speaker 1: also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at Podcasts. Also thank you to 671 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,360 Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett of Bloomberg Radio and the voice of the 672 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 1: New York City Subway System. What Goes Up is produced 673 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,200 Speaker 1: by Jordan Goscore. The head of Bloomberg podcast is Francesco Levie. 674 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,160 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, See you next time.