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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. Just about that action all.

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Speaker 2: Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing out spect We're saying it's a cash touchdown. All

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Speaker 1: we see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to

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Speaker 2: and we are away.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Jill Gilant. I'm

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Speaker 1: joined by the one and only Brandon Anderson, NFL betting

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Speaker 1: expert and futures ghost here with Action Network. Today, we

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Speaker 1: are going to kick off what we're calling Rankings Week

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Speaker 1: here at Action Network now Brandon, as preparation for the

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Speaker 1: NFL season. This is an exercise that you do every

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Speaker 1: year just to get prepared. We're in August, the upcoming

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Speaker 1: season is starting. You'll study everything and rank pretty much everything.

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Speaker 1: And this year we're going to do it all together

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Speaker 1: on the podcast, accompanied with your written articles at actionnetwork

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Speaker 1: dot com. We're going to rank the coaches, offensive lines,

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Speaker 1: skill position groups, offenses, defenses.

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Speaker 2: But really we.

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Speaker 1: Got to start with the big kahunas here most important

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Speaker 1: position in professional sports in my opinion, and that is

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Speaker 1: the NFL quarterback. So that is where we start today

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Speaker 1: and we're going to dive into and rank all thirty

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Speaker 1: two starting quarterbacks across the NFL. Now, Brandon, you have

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Speaker 1: very specific criteria you like to use with your rankings,

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Speaker 1: So can you explain to us how you compile those rankings, Like,

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Speaker 1: what kind of criteria are you using? Is it contract?

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Speaker 1: Is it to win the Super Bowl? Is it long

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Speaker 1: term potential? Tell us?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, really, it's just one simple question. If you wire

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Speaker 3: to let down, if I want a quarterback that's going

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Speaker 3: to help my team win a.

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl this season, who do I want? That's it?

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Speaker 2: Who do I want to win a super Bowl? Right now?

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Speaker 3: So no contract, no law, term potential, immediate potential does matter.

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Speaker 3: Where can I get you to by January? That matters.

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Speaker 3: Health does matter because I'm getting you as whatever package

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Speaker 3: you're coming in as right now. And I will say

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Speaker 3: we're recording this Friday for release on Monday. There's a

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Speaker 3: weekend of preseason in between, so if health happened in between,

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Speaker 3: that part didn't matter, but otherwise does matter here And

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Speaker 3: of course the hard part, but the interesting part, they're

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Speaker 3: trying to kind of parse out team situation, blocking, coaching,

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Speaker 3: play calling.

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Speaker 2: The idea is if you're starting a new team.

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Speaker 3: For this season and I get a guy who do

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Speaker 3: I want to build my team around, and that's contentious.

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Speaker 3: Of course, that's why it's hashtag content because you know,

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Speaker 3: we get to argue about it because we don't know

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Speaker 3: there's I agree, it is the most important position in

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Speaker 3: team sports and has an outside impact on winning.

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Speaker 2: At every level.

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Speaker 3: But it's still a team game. So that's the fun

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Speaker 3: of it. That's the argument. I always do all of

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Speaker 3: these rankings in tiers, so we'll have that as we

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Speaker 3: do each different podcast here. The goal of the tier

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Speaker 3: is basically, if there's a tier of three names or teams,

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Speaker 3: I can pretty much argue any order on those. You

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Speaker 3: can talk me into just slightly shifting them around. But

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Speaker 3: once I get down to the next tier, those are below.

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Speaker 3: Like once I drop to a tier below, I should

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Speaker 3: not be able to put those names up above. So

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Speaker 3: that's the goal here today, and you know, to provide

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Speaker 3: some content and probably piss.

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Speaker 2: Off some people with their quarterback rankings. So let's get

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Speaker 2: into it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's let's start some fires, let's get some chaos going.

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Speaker 1: But that being said, there won't be much chaos. I

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Speaker 1: believe at the top of the rankings, because I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of that is consensus just where we are

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Speaker 1: in the NFL today. So let's get into those rankings.

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Speaker 1: As Brandon said, we're going to go buy tiers.

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Speaker 2: We're going to start at the top.

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Speaker 1: We're going to go through every quarterback one through thirty two,

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Speaker 1: and at the top of the list, it's pretty obvious

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Speaker 1: this tier one. There are two quarterbacks in this list.

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Speaker 1: This is a tier that Brandon has called the unimpeachables,

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Speaker 1: and at number one we have Patrick Mahomes with the

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Speaker 1: Cancer City Chiefs. At number two, Josh Allen raiding NFL MVP.

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Speaker 1: So quickly, how did you think a lot about whether

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Speaker 1: or not Mahomes should be at number one for the

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Speaker 1: seventh consecutive season, or was there just not much thought

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Speaker 1: at all? We're putting it that's the placeholder.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, not really much thought needed here. It is I've

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Speaker 3: done this now for a decade. This is seven straight years. Basically,

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Speaker 3: once he became a starter and we got one year

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Speaker 3: of data, he became number one. He's actually, I believe,

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Speaker 3: never shared the top tier before. So this is a

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Speaker 3: slight slip or maybe slight rise from Allen here The

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Speaker 3: thing with Mahomes is seven seasons, seven AFC championship games.

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Speaker 3: I mean, what else do you need to know? Quarterback

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Speaker 3: wins are not a thing in the short term. Long term,

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Speaker 3: quarterback wins are a thing. There's a reason that we

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Speaker 3: know who the guys are that win all the stuff,

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Speaker 3: and that's how we keep track of them.

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Speaker 2: At the top.

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Speaker 3: Mahomes is one with bad blocking, he's one without great receivers.

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Speaker 3: He's one with bad defense. He's one with kind of

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Speaker 3: bad play calling or contentious offensive coordinator, all the things

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Speaker 3: that bring other quarterbacks down. He just wins anyway, eighty

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Speaker 3: nine and twenty three lifetime in the regular season, seventeen

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Speaker 3: and four in the playoffs. Like we remember all the

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Speaker 3: times he lost in the playoffs because there's only four

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Speaker 3: of them.

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Speaker 2: So I know the.

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Speaker 3: Numbers are a little down in the last two seasons

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Speaker 3: in the regular season. If your two down years are

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Speaker 3: twenty five wins and six playoff wins with bad blocking

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Speaker 3: and blad receivers.

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Speaker 2: You're number one. It's Mahomes. Okay.

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Speaker 1: So you brought up that point though, that where Mahomes

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Speaker 1: had kind of elevated above the remainder of quarterbacks, where

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Speaker 1: he was in a tier of his own this year.

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Speaker 1: Now you have Josh Allen sharing that tier, and so

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Speaker 1: it's just a very simple question, why did we have

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen now on the same level with Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 1: And what does he have to do to even pass

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Speaker 1: him at this point, like win another MVP whin Super Bowl?

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Speaker 2: Tell me about that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think honestly, if you could kind of ignore

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Speaker 3: history and only that the goal is just pick a

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Speaker 3: quarterback for right now this year, I think if you

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Speaker 3: were doing that genuinely, you could make a pretty good

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Speaker 3: case that Allan should probably be number one or at

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Speaker 3: least one a here based on all the data we

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Speaker 3: have from this the last couple of years, he's clearly

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Speaker 3: ranked ahead of Mahomes. Mahomes is just invincible until proven otherwise.

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Speaker 3: So I think Mahomes has to lose the one spot.

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Speaker 3: But Alan, really, I don't think there's a case against

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Speaker 3: him anymore. The big mistakes, he's cut those down. His

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Speaker 3: sack rate point just crazy low two point eight percent

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Speaker 3: last season. He cut down the interceptions a lot you

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Speaker 3: turn over where he plays, are down his playoffs. That's

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Speaker 3: the other big thing lobbed against him. Seven and six

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Speaker 3: in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: It's not great.

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Speaker 3: Thirty two touchdowns he's been responsible for in those thirteen games,

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Speaker 3: four interceptions. He's at a pace over those playoff games

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Speaker 3: for forty four hundred yards, forty two touchdowns, and five picks.

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Speaker 3: That's an MVP year. He just keeps having bad luck

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Speaker 3: in frankly bad defense. He has so far since two thousand,

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Speaker 3: the best EPA per play of any quarterback in the

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Speaker 3: league in playoff losses. He just also has the worst

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Speaker 3: defense by ePaper play in those games. He's had the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs game, the thirteen seconds. Of course, Tyler Bass missed

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Speaker 3: the field goal, we had a Diggs drop, we had

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Speaker 3: a Concaid drop, and I know got to overcome all

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Speaker 3: those things. But he ranks number one all time all

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Speaker 3: time in yards per game in the playoffs, touchdowns per game,

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Speaker 3: and touchdowns per turnover. He's been great. He's as good

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Speaker 3: as anybody. There's no case against allanymore. Just Mahomes is

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Speaker 3: unimpeachable at one.

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Speaker 1: I do find it interesting too that both of those

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks with losses obviously in the playoffs, in the Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl and in the AFC Championship Game, neither of those

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Speaker 1: losses really, in my opinion, downgraded their resume. I think,

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Speaker 1: if anything, they're still firmly entrenched.

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Speaker 2: At those top two spots.

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Speaker 1: So that's tier one for the NFL quarterback rankings. Let's

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Speaker 1: move now to tier two and this one you had

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Speaker 1: mentioned before. You're probably going to piss some people off

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Speaker 1: with the way that this is ranked, and so we

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Speaker 1: have labeled this tier as this isn't an insult. So

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Speaker 1: at number three you have Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow

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Speaker 1: and at number four another AFC North quarterback, Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 1: Now you talk about content, there's a ton of NFL

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Speaker 1: rankings out there, some have you know, Lamar maybe as

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Speaker 1: the first quarterback, maybe in.

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Speaker 2: The top three.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I just want to mention this as

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Speaker 1: somebody I know you, I follow you on social media.

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Speaker 1: You kind of give Lamar a lot of shit on

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Speaker 1: social I'm just saying it. You're pretty critical of him

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Speaker 1: despite his accolades. So why isn't Lamar in that top

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Speaker 1: tier for you? Yeah, he is in a top tier

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Speaker 1: of four. For me, I think most have generally accepted

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Speaker 1: him as in.

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Speaker 2: The top tier of three. I think, honestly, it's a.

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Speaker 3: Bit outlandish that he seems to be almost becoming the

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Speaker 3: consensus number one. If you look at all these different

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Speaker 3: ranks that are out there, I think it's too soon

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Speaker 3: for that. The difference here with Lamar number one, why

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Speaker 3: is he moved up here?

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Speaker 2: He is up.

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Speaker 3: He was seventh in my rankings last year. I think

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Speaker 3: I was too slow. I think I was wrong about that.

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Speaker 3: After a little crow here in the regular season, he

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Speaker 3: has been as unimpeachable as anyone. All the numbers are there.

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Speaker 3: I don't need to quote them, you know them already.

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Speaker 3: He was better last year I thought than he was

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Speaker 3: the previous year when he won MVP. I did not

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Speaker 3: think he should have won that MVP. I thought his

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Speaker 3: numbers last year, we're deserving of MVP. He just also

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Speaker 3: played in a season where Alan and Burrow I thought

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Speaker 3: we're deserving of MVP as well. So the criticisms on Lamar,

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Speaker 3: he does have a lot of help around him. He's

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Speaker 3: had great coaching his whole career. He's had great defense

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Speaker 3: and special teams most of the time, great blocking, and

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Speaker 3: on a lot of great run game. It's an elite

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Speaker 3: system that does prop him up a lot. I think otherwise.

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Speaker 3: The main thing is in those big games, in those

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Speaker 3: playoff moments. If you are this level, if you are

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Speaker 3: Holmes Allen level, you have to deliver. Lamar is three

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Speaker 3: to five in the playoffs. He's on pace in his

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Speaker 3: playoff career for twenty one touchdowns and fifteen interceptions. If

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Speaker 3: that was like a seventeen game season, sixty one percent completion.

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Speaker 3: I know some of these are just raw numbers, but

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Speaker 3: it's not great. Eleven percent sack rate is really bad.

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Speaker 3: That's a terrible number in the playoffs. Seven fumbles in

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Speaker 3: eight games. And I mentioned with Josh Allen even in

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Speaker 3: losses how good he's been. Lamar Jackson same stat in losses,

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Speaker 3: negative zero point one to.

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Speaker 2: Three EPA per play.

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Speaker 3: It's bottom ten among all quarterbacks this century. So and

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Speaker 3: in those games, remember, with Allen the defense was terrible.

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Speaker 3: Baltimore's defense has been top five EPA per play. Here's

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Speaker 3: the translation. When Josh Allen plays in the playoffs but loses,

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Speaker 3: he's doing his job. The defense is letting the Bills down.

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Speaker 3: The data tells us that when the Ravens losing the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: the Ravens defense is doing their job and Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 3: is letting them down. And that is a huge difference.

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Speaker 3: And I just if it comes down to one game,

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Speaker 3: I gotta win until I see Lamar win those big games, and.

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Speaker 2: I think he will. He's really good.

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Speaker 3: I think he's gonna win those games, but he hasn't yet.

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Speaker 3: And I trust the three guys above him. But these

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Speaker 3: four are so far ahead of everyone else.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean, Lamar Jackson is all pro for a reason.

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Speaker 1: The touchdown interception ratio was mind boggling. So I'm agreeing

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Speaker 1: with you that he probably should have won MVP in

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Speaker 1: twenty four and Allen in twenty three instead those two swapped.

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Speaker 1: But it's Joe Burrow now, because Joe Burrow. They obviously,

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Speaker 1: if you think of like two different quarterbacks, like they

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Speaker 1: can't be any more different of Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 2: And Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 1: But Joe Burrow is that prototypical stand in the pocket quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Will take some hits, We'll take some sacks as well.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a big critique of mind of Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrow is that in his three healthy seasons, he's top

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Speaker 1: five in sacks every year because he'll stand there in

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Speaker 1: the pocket, which has led to some injuries and knicks

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Speaker 1: and stuff like that. I guess what I'm wondering is

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Speaker 1: is it a big gap for you between Joe Burrow

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Speaker 1: and Lamar Jackson. It really just wanted to know why

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Speaker 1: we have Burrow over Lamar.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, certainly not a big gap. Again with the tier

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Speaker 3: is it's small gaps between these guys. And if I'm

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Speaker 3: being totally honest in honor content, I came into this

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Speaker 3: process thinking, Okay, how many names can I rank ahead

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Speaker 3: of Lamar Jackson this year?

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Speaker 2: How many can I come up with? Only three?

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Speaker 3: It turns out and it was close to being only two.

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Speaker 3: I think most people now have Lamar ahead of Burrow.

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Speaker 3: I thought Burrow, the way he played last year finally

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Speaker 3: lived up to the thing he's supposed to be to

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Speaker 3: belong in this top four. Very different quarterback than the

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Speaker 3: top guys. It's all accuracy, it's touch. He doesn't have

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Speaker 3: that arm strength to just do that that way. It's

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Speaker 3: the way he's ringing the defense, the way he's making

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Speaker 3: those plays. And I think too, we often in the

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Speaker 3: media we discredit Joe Burrow. He's like, yeah, but look

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Speaker 3: at those receivers, and we can'd of count that as

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Speaker 3: He's been in this amazing situation. No doubt Chase and

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Speaker 3: Higgins are awesome, but they even't had a lot of

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Speaker 3: other help besides those two. And I know that that's

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Speaker 3: a big besides. But the receiver depth hasn't been great,

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Speaker 3: the run game hasn't been great. I was never a

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Speaker 3: big Joe Mixon guy. He's a pretty average sort of

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Speaker 3: running back. The blocking has been abysmal. He has had

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Speaker 3: terrible blocking through his entire career. Now, I think he's

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Speaker 3: hurting that a little bit. He loves to get the shotgun.

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Speaker 3: He's not great at managing the pocket, so he's not

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Speaker 3: helping himself there, but he's not getting help. I don't

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Speaker 3: think he's getting much help play calling again, maybe a

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Speaker 3: little bit his fault as well.

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Speaker 2: But I do think there's a big.

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Speaker 3: Swing in context from Lamar getting a ton of help

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Speaker 3: throughout his career and Burrown not that much. Here's a

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Speaker 3: number from last with Joe Burrow win probability added per game?

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Speaker 3: So how much are you responsible? What percentage of the

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Speaker 3: game are you responding for helping your team get wins?

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow last season was at thirty six percent win

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Speaker 3: probability added per game. Here's the context for that number

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Speaker 3: since two thousand and seven. That's the asterisk Patriots undefeated

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Speaker 3: year since two thousand and seven. That is tied for

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Speaker 3: the highest win probably added of any quarterback and any

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Speaker 3: player in that stretch, Tied with Patrick Mahomes once, just

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Speaker 3: ahead of that Tom Brady season, just ahead of Peyton

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Speaker 3: Manning two thousand and nine, and importantly double almost Lamar

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Speaker 3: Jackson last year, who is not playing much worse.

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Speaker 2: It's just he's getting way.

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Speaker 3: More help from the run game, from Derrick Henry, from

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Speaker 3: the special teams and the defense and all those things.

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Speaker 3: Lamar actually, by winning probability added, his two MVP seasons

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Speaker 3: are the two lowest MVP seasons by that metric in

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Speaker 3: this span. So to me, this is trying to parse

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Speaker 3: out context and team situation. I think Burrow is doing

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Speaker 3: more in his spot than Lamar needs to do. But

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Speaker 3: they're both amazing and I like to watch them both play.

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Speaker 3: And the AFC is a blood bath because we're already

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Speaker 3: at FOURFC. Guys, we're not even done yet.

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Speaker 1: I legit was going to mention that your top four

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Speaker 1: are all from the AFC. I think it also is

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Speaker 1: worth mentioning that Joe Burrow Lamar Jackson two of three

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks last year to throw forty or more touchdowns, and

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Speaker 1: you could probably make the case that if you swapped rosters,

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Speaker 1: if you put Joe Burrow on that Ravens team, they

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Speaker 1: might have won the super Bowl already. But again that's

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Speaker 1: a hypothetical. We won't go down that road. Instead, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna move to the third tier. So this is Tier three.

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Speaker 1: This is now three quarterbacks who where we titled this

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Speaker 1: as good enough to win games on their row. And

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Speaker 1: it's a little scary because I'm not sure if I

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Speaker 1: feel like any of these guys are in the top five,

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Speaker 1: But this is what we do this for. So at

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Speaker 1: number five we have Justin Herbert with the Los Angeles Chargers,

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Speaker 1: number six Jordan Love with the Green Bay Packers, and

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Speaker 1: number seven Jayden Daniels one rookie of the year. We'll

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Speaker 1: talk about Jaydon Daniels.

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Speaker 2: Here, But.

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Speaker 1: Does it make you feel a little like iffy about

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks and just where we're at from an overall quarterback standpoint,

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Speaker 1: that one of these guys is a top five quarterback

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. I'm just not sure if I can

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Speaker 1: get there yet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm fully with you.

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Speaker 3: We love our round numbers and at top five fields

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Speaker 3: like it means something to us. I don't think it

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Speaker 3: really rankles us at all to call these three guys

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Speaker 3: top ten quarterback. Yeah sure, Justin Herbert top ten. I

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Speaker 3: can get there. Even if you don't agree, he can

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Speaker 3: at least get close enough. Jordan Love, Sure, I'm not

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Speaker 3: a big Love fan.

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Speaker 2: Top ten.

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Speaker 3: Okay, I see where you're at top five. That just

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Speaker 3: that feels different. And I don't know if it's because

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Speaker 3: these guys aren't there yet or if it's just because

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Speaker 3: those top four are so good, Like I don't know

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Speaker 3: if we've ever had a top.

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Speaker 2: Four like this. We certainly have stretches.

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Speaker 3: We had Manny Brady for years and years, Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 3: for a lot of that gap. Maybe this is just

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Speaker 3: kind of short term memory, but it does feel if anything,

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Speaker 3: this tier five, six, seven, I'd love to just with blank,

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Speaker 3: just leave me three blank spots and then let's fill

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Speaker 3: in names. And okay, Herbert loved Daniels at eight, nine, ten.

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Speaker 2: Everybody feels great, Let's move on with life. But that's

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Speaker 2: not how numbers work.

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Speaker 3: Somebody has to be number five, and we don't really

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Speaker 3: say much about Justin Herbert he's number five. Kind of

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Speaker 3: for weaning to talk about this point. I think he

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Speaker 3: finally does deserve to be in this mix. He is

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Speaker 3: only twenty seven this year. Feels like he's played a

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Speaker 3: long time. But it's possible maybe he's still just hitting

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Speaker 3: his ceiling now that he's in a better situation. Except

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Speaker 3: Rayshawn Slater starlev tackle out for the season, maybe not

359
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Speaker 3: a better situation. So we'll see how he holds up this.

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Speaker 1: Here, all right, Jayden Daniels, though, that's where I I

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Speaker 1: don't want to say I take exception to it. I'm

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Speaker 1: just not sure if I'm ready to label him as

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Speaker 1: a top ten quarterback. And again this is me. I'm

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Speaker 1: not trying to give my Cowboys bias here. This is

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Speaker 1: just genuinely when you look at the way that the

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Speaker 1: final act of the season played out, where the final

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Speaker 1: six games of the Commander's played to make that playoff push,

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Speaker 1: they played backupquarterbacks or third string quarterbacks, and both playoff wins,

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Speaker 1: both teams defenses which completely decimated the Buccaneers and the Lions.

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Speaker 1: And then of course we have to talk about a

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Speaker 1: little bit of luck as well, like on third down

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Speaker 1: and fourth down efficiency that doesn't feel sustainable to me,

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Speaker 1: and now their top wide receiver is asking for a trade.

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Speaker 1: This is very tricky for me. I'm not sure if

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Speaker 1: I could agree with you on Jayden Daniels in the

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Speaker 1: top ten. But just tell me where are we at

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Speaker 1: here on Jaden because you had him at twenty six

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Speaker 1: last year coming into the twenty twenty four seasons, so

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Speaker 1: that's the biggest jump between your year rankings for you. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's tough because I've been burned by this sort of

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Speaker 1: spot in the past.

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Speaker 2: I came in with CJ.

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Speaker 3: Stroud coming in hot top ten and then was not

384
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Speaker 3: a top ten quarterback last year. I remember with Trevor Lawrence,

385
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Speaker 3: not after his rookie year, but after the next year.

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Speaker 2: Okay, he's looking great.

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Speaker 3: We made it, and we kind of think with these

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Speaker 3: young guys, Okay, we saw something good. Now you'll even

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Speaker 3: be better. Growth isn't That is linear, So it's not

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Speaker 3: necessarily guarantee that this is where Jane Daniels goes. But

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Speaker 3: I think, on the other hand, if you just go

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Speaker 3: by the numbers, if you just go by what we

393
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Speaker 3: saw last year, the data we have, I think you

394
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,480
Speaker 3: can make a pretty strong case Daniels should be number

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Speaker 3: five and maybe even in the tier or approaching the tier,

396
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Speaker 3: or in his own like above the rest of these

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Speaker 3: guys closer maybe to Lamar and Burrow than a lot

398
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Speaker 3: of people think from last year. Like I thought he

399
00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 3: could have been top five on MVP ballots last year

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Speaker 3: even as a rookie by how much it contributed. Now,

401
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,719
Speaker 3: all your points, I think are totally right. Those fourth downs,

402
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,920
Speaker 3: those fourth quarters, the big plays unreal. I don't think

403
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Speaker 3: that sustainable, but it was sustainable throughout the season. I

404
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 3: think it was sustainable throughout the season last year.

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Speaker 2: Either.

406
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Speaker 3: I am still worried about so much of his value

407
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 3: is in his scrambling and his legs, and he's just

408
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,159
Speaker 3: such a small dude, slight frame. How long is that

409
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 3: going to hold up? One big hit? What's that do

410
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,240
Speaker 3: to him? He missed the game from it, Yeah, he said,

411
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Speaker 3: I mean it's always going to be a and I

412
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 3: think even his long term career, it makes me, you know,

413
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Speaker 3: I don't I don't see Jane Daniels playing till age

414
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 3: thirty eight to forty two, you know, Like that's not

415
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 3: the sort of style that holds up.

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Speaker 2: There's there's a lot.

417
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Speaker 3: To like here though he was top five by PFF

418
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,760
Speaker 3: passer grade as a rookie. He had a one point

419
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 3: five percent turnover worthy play or turnover worthy pass. That's

420
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,040
Speaker 3: a crazy low number. He had an elite fumble grade,

421
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 3: which is amazing considering how much he's constantly scrambling, constantly

422
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,960
Speaker 3: under pressure. He was under pressure the number three quarterback

423
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Speaker 3: by PFF.

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Speaker 2: That's for a rookie.

425
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Speaker 3: Like that's ahead of two of those guys we just

426
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Speaker 3: set above that.

427
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Speaker 2: He's in that mix of dudes.

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Speaker 3: So it's I feel like seven is almost a compromise here,

429
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 3: like this could look dumb in either direction. If we're

430
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,440
Speaker 3: being honest, he could end up back down to fifteen,

431
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 3: and it's like, okay, let's give him some time, let's

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Speaker 3: see where it goes.

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Speaker 1: But he could be in that top five. Maybe he's

434
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Speaker 1: the guy that's gonna above the mechs. Well, I don't

435
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Speaker 1: think anybody's gonna label you as dumb. But I think

436
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 1: the one thing I would say is there are some

437
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 1: people who may say that they feel that not dumb,

438
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 1: but just don't necessarily agree with the ranking. And that's

439
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 1: specifically about Jordan Love, and I want to bring that

440
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 1: up because the top five quarterbacks that you ranked all

441
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,479
Speaker 1: came from the AFC. Jordan Love, by your rankings, is

442
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:26,480
Speaker 1: the top ranked NFC quarterback. And you know, coming into

443
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 1: last season you had them at fifth coming off a

444
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 1: great playoff run, kicked the shit out of the Cowboys,

445
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 1: the scot the arrows only pointing me up. And last

446
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 1: year it just didn't come together.

447
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 2: He didn't.

448
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,239
Speaker 1: I don't want to say he progressed, but it just

449
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 1: wasn't there what we saw the year before. So why

450
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 1: do you believe in Jordan Love as being the top

451
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:46,640
Speaker 1: ranked quarterback in the NFC.

452
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's tough because you got to really parse a

453
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 3: lot of context.

454
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 2: Here.

455
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 3: We have two years now of Jordan Love starting in

456
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 3: the NFL, and basically what we have is half of

457
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 3: a year of not great football and then half a year.

458
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 2: Of really good football. So we did that.

459
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,120
Speaker 3: Both seasons started out bad for half of the year,

460
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 3: ended out pretty well. There's a whole like totithon Jordan

461
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 3: Love thing based on how the timing is lined up.

462
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 3: But I think if you think about how this career

463
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 3: has played out so far, the context makes sense. Okay,

464
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 3: your brand new he was very raw. I was not

465
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 3: highing him coming out of college. I know he waited

466
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 3: a few years for his shot. It's going to take

467
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 3: some games. Starting out, I was not highing him. I'd

468
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 3: have to look back and see, but I would guess

469
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,120
Speaker 3: I had him like twenty fifth or something coming into

470
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 3: his starting year and he looked at He was not

471
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 3: good coming out, and then second half of the season

472
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 3: I thought he played MVP football.

473
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 2: He had a huge leap.

474
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 3: The numbers were awesome. Twenty twenty three from week eight

475
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 3: forward he had in ninety PFF grade. He was had

476
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 3: twenty seven big time throws. He was six and two

477
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 3: with eighteen touchdowns and a one interception. He's great in

478
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 3: the playoffs, like you mentioned, Okay, so we're hype. I

479
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:55,199
Speaker 3: have a number five for last year. Don't forget. He

480
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 3: plays in the first game of the season on an

481
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 3: ice rink in Brazil and he gets hurt. I thought

482
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 3: he was done for the season based on what we

483
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 3: saw in that game. He wasn't. He missed a few games.

484
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 3: The Malik Willis kind of saves the Packers' season and

485
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 3: maybe makes you question, Okay, how much is just this

486
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 3: Matt Lafleur and that is that the packers thing here

487
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 3: and we don't know, we don't know the answer to that,

488
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 3: but he didn't play well then after coming back from

489
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 3: that for kind of half the year before rounding in

490
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 3: the shape.

491
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 2: Okay, well, is he just hurt?

492
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 3: Like we kind of thought that he was gonna miss

493
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 3: months of time or a whole season, and he comes

494
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 3: back by like week four and five is playing already.

495
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,479
Speaker 3: He's still last year ranked top three and lowest pressure

496
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 3: to sack rate. That's amazing for a guy that's playing

497
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 3: on an ankle leg that we thought was gonna be

498
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:41,640
Speaker 3: out for the year.

499
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:46,360
Speaker 2: Now I love him escaping. He's not producing.

500
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 3: Out of pocket. He was twenty ninth EPA per play

501
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 3: on out of pocket. So you're escaping, but now you're

502
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 3: making a lot of mistakes and bad plays. We like

503
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 3: the upside and the Mahomes type stuff when it goes well.

504
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,159
Speaker 3: There's a lot of criticisms that you can lobby at

505
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 3: my Love ranking here. It's very much a projection. The

506
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 3: reality is I have one good year of Jordan Love.

507
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 3: I have one good year Jane Daniels. I just am

508
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 3: willing to take a risk on these three guys. With Herbert,

509
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 3: I think those guys, if I'm right, could be in

510
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 3: that top tier and go win me a super Bowl.

511
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 3: I think everybody else below I need a lot of

512
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 3: other help. So that's why those three man into the mixes.

513
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 3: I'll take a shot. I want upside. I think these

514
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 3: three guys give me a shot with their talent to

515
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:30,879
Speaker 3: go win me a super Bowl if I need them to.

516
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 1: I think my biggest takeaway is just that the Packers

517
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 1: have a horseshoe up their ass. The fact that they've

518
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 1: had probably a top five quarterback for three straight decades, right, Like,

519
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: it's just been I mean it's good, it's great from

520
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,959
Speaker 1: an evaluation standpoint, but man like, if I ever hear

521
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 1: a Packers fan complain about their quarterback situation, like, I'm

522
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 1: just gonna dismiss them immediately. All right, let's not move

523
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,159
Speaker 1: to tier four because you have labeled this as the

524
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:02,680
Speaker 1: litmus tests. So number eight you have Dallas Cowboys quarterback

525
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott. You have number nine you have Jalen Hurts

526
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: with the Philadelphia Eagles. Number ten Gino Smith now with

527
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders, and then of course at eleven

528
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 1: you have CJ. Stroud just outside the top ten. Now

529
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 1: entering his third year. Let's start with just the tier name,

530
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: because I know this is a tier you pretty much

531
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: always have in the eight to twelve range. So just

532
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: can you define for us what you mean by the

533
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 1: litmus tests?

534
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, so to me, these are the quarterbacks that can

535
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 3: be great, can play like a top five guy in

536
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 3: the right system, in the right setting, with protection, with

537
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 3: play calling, with weapons, they can look great. Dak Prescott

538
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 3: looked like an MVP legit candidate two years ago. Last year,

539
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 3: didn't have as much help. No run game, bad blocking,

540
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 3: not a lot of receiving depth, did not look like

541
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 3: an MVP candidate last year. Now, Jalen Hurts gets a

542
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 3: whole lot of help. Amazing receivers, running back, great blocking,

543
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 3: great play calling. Looks incredible. But we've only seen him

544
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 3: in that setting. What if he didn't have all of

545
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 3: that help. Matt Ryan back in the day when he

546
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,880
Speaker 3: won his MVP as a great example of a litmus

547
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 3: test quarterback. When he has Kyle Shanahan calling the plays

548
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 3: and Julio Jones catching the ball, he's an MVP. But

549
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 3: then when you take those things away, he's Matt Ryan.

550
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 3: So this is the group that, like for years Kirk

551
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,679
Speaker 3: Cousins was in that, Derek Carroffen was in, Ryan Tannehill.

552
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 3: Guys that if you get and they're in the bottom

553
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 3: of this group usually, but the guys that fit the surroundings.

554
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:35,719
Speaker 3: What you see in the team is what you're going

555
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 3: to get out of the quarterback, and there are limitations there.

556
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 3: They're outside our top seven now, but you can be

557
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 3: a darn good quarterback if things are right.

558
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 2: So I want to talk.

559
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 1: About Jalen Hurts a little bit more and more so

560
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 1: than Dak because Dak, I feel like we have quite

561
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 1: a bit of data, sample size, and just more of

562
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 1: it's at this point it's just how do you perform

563
00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 1: in the playoffs? So I think we have a pretty

564
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 1: good idea of the floor that he brings from a

565
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 1: regular season standpoint. But Jalen Hurts, I think you and

566
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 1: I both have a ton of Eagles fans in our lives,

567
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 1: and I think they get the most pissed when we

568
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 1: start to talk about Jalen Hurts ranking, because half of

569
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 1: most of Eagles fans will say he's either four spots

570
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: too low or he should be like number one. And

571
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 1: you know he's coming off a super Bowl championship, two

572
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 1: Super Bowl appearances in the last three years. How difficult

573
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 1: is it to rank a Super Bowl champion from a

574
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: quarterback ranking standpoint, especially given how great they looked in

575
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: that final game last year.

576
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I honestly think among these top quarterbacks, Hurts is

577
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 3: the one guy I keep sliding around the most, Like

578
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 3: He's a hard one for me to place exactly in

579
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 3: these spots. I think I've had him as high as

580
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 3: four or five. One year, I think he played as

581
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 3: well as fourth or fifth even better in is one

582
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 3: near MVP season. I've had him down outside of my

583
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 3: top ten. He's moved around a lot. It's hard because

584
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 3: the dude just won a Super Bowl, and Frank we've

585
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 3: seen him play now in two Super Bowls, lights out football,

586
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 3: maybe outplay Patrick Mahomes in those two games. You can't

587
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 3: ignore that. But you also can't ignore he didn't really

588
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 3: play that great of football before the Super Bowl and

589
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 3: you got to get to the Super Bowl, and that

590
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 3: part matters too. If you look at the last four

591
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 3: years of playoff data, Hurts is twelfth in EPA plus

592
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 3: completion overexpected.

593
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 2: It's not that great.

594
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 3: He's seventeenth in success rate, like These aren't terrible numbers,

595
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 3: but they're certainly not elite quarterback numbers. And I guess

596
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 3: the question I would ask an Eagles fan is, if

597
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 3: you have the best running back in football, two elite

598
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 3: receivers by far, the best line in football, elite play calling,

599
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 3: and an elite defense, why isn't Jalen Hurts and this

600
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 3: offense just murdering everyone? The Eagles passing attack was the

601
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 3: weak point of the team last year. When the team

602
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 3: struggled at times for parts of games or otherwise, it

603
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 3: was the passing. It was the lack of Hurts being

604
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 3: able to pass like a top tier quarterback. That's the

605
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 3: And if you gave this team Burrow or Lamar or

606
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 3: Patrick or Josh, I think they'd just be slaughtering everyone.

607
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 3: That's not how this goes. So I think that that matters.

608
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 3: That's the context. Hurts, particularly under pressure, is really a

609
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 3: bad quarterback under pressure PFF grade of forty out just

610
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 3: passing sub thirty on those that's out of a hunter.

611
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 3: So that's a really bad grade. He has one of

612
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 3: the longest time to throw in the league. He invites

613
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 3: a lot of the pressure. Now he's not getting a

614
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 3: lot because the line is so good. But even so,

615
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 3: he gets pressured on forty percent of his snaps, most

616
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 3: in the league, and as good as he's as good

617
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 3: as Alan is in the pocket when he's clean, but

618
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 3: out of the pocket, he's twenty six in EPA per

619
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 3: play a bad quarterback, and he gets out of the

620
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 3: pocket twenty four percent of the time, one of the

621
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 3: highest of any quarterbacks. So if you can get to

622
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: him a little bit, he's not even not a great quarterback.

623
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 3: He might even be a good quarterback. The problem is

624
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 3: it's the egos line and all those receivers, so they

625
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 3: don't get to him very often. And if they you

626
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 3: just chuck it up to aj Brown and Davante and

627
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 3: they'll probably just catch it. Anyway, This to me is

628
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 3: maybe the quarterback that's the hardest to take the team

629
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 3: context out of. That's my best opportunity add it herds

630
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 3: just inside the top ten, and I think definitively in

631
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 3: this litmus task group is where he belongs.

632
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 1: Oh, if you talk to an Eagles fan, they'd have

633
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 1: McKee probably right now in the same range right now, Biggs,

634
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 1: Because even McKee in that preseason appearance, just in the

635
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: first game, looked pretty good, and that part of it

636
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 1: is product of their environment, product of the system that

637
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 1: they're playing it. I don't want to say that Jalen

638
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 1: Hurts is the system quarterback. If anything, he is more

639
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: like James Harden kind of like he is the system

640
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: kind of thing. But at the same time, I think

641
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 1: there's quite a large amount of people who would say

642
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 1: that Jalen Hurts is better than Dak Prescott. I'm not

643
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 1: sure if I'm ready to go there, but yeah, make

644
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 1: the case. Do you think Dak Prescott is significantly better

645
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 1: than Jalen Hurts or do you think like it could

646
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 1: be interchangeable.

647
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they're back to back here in the

648
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 3: same tier, so pretty interchangeable. To me, Dak Prescott for

649
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 3: a bit there, I wanted him to be like a

650
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 3: couple spots up a couple of years ago, just above

651
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 3: this litmus test group. I think, to me, he's kind

652
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 3: of the preeminent litmus test guy. We see that when

653
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 3: things are good in Dallas, he's a big part of

654
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 3: the reason why, and we see, frankly, when things are bad,

655
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 3: I think he's a big part of the reason why

656
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 3: for that too, kind of in a good way, because

657
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 3: he has the arm and the ability to take some

658
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 3: shots and take some chances and make things even worse,

659
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 3: where like, I'm kinda fine with that. I don't really

660
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 3: need like Jared Goff or Tua just checking it down

661
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 3: and doing nothing for my team. I want at least

662
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 3: a chance to win. I'd rather Dak make some mistakes

663
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 3: and look terrible like he did at times last year.

664
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 3: And he looked awful at times last year, as you know,

665
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,959
Speaker 3: tons of turnovers, just lots of mistakes. For his career,

666
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 3: he's never had a losing record in a season where

667
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 3: he didn't miss a big chunk of games. He's averaged

668
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 3: a ten point six win pace for his career. Then

669
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 3: you get to the playoffs. I have nothing to say

670
00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 3: about his playoffs. He hasn't done it there. He's two

671
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 3: and five. The playoffs is a bunch of pretty bad games.

672
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 3: Had one good game really in the playoffs for his career.

673
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 3: I think this is the range for him. If you

674
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 3: give him the right stuff around him, he's gonna look

675
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 3: really good. If you take it away, he's gonna look bad.

676
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 3: And that's kind of the Dak Prescott conversation, all right,

677
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 3: So Gino Smith and C. J.

678
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 2: Stroud.

679
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 1: You have Geno a tenth CJ. Stroud at eleventh, you

680
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: might be the highest as far as ranking is considerable, Like,

681
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 1: I think you're more in the Gino Smith camp than

682
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 1: a lot of people who do the rankings here. Just

683
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 1: can we quickly explain why do we have Geno Smith

684
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 1: and Stroud in the litmus test range?

685
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 3: So Gino by PFF grade the last three years, this

686
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 3: might be a surprising. So I haven't had tenth here

687
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 3: by PFF grade. He ranked ninth last year, fourteenth, ninth

688
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 3: though three years in a row, so he's right in

689
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 3: that range. He's been a starter five seasons in his career,

690
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 3: and not just in Seattle. He's finished five hundred or

691
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 3: better for the five seasons. The dude who wins football games.

692
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 3: I think he has a top three accurate quarterback in

693
00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 3: the NFL. I think he has a top three deep

694
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 3: in the NFL last year, and in recent years he's

695
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 3: just getting crushed by terrible blocking. I think, frankly, we'll

696
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 3: get to this name a lot later. I think Sam

697
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 3: Darnold this year is going to show us just how

698
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 3: good Gino Smith was last year. I think Smith's been

699
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 3: nuked a little bit by bad protection, by bad play calling.

700
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 3: I like him a lot in this mix. Stroud Frankly,

701
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 3: this is slightly optimistic for him based on the numbers

702
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 3: we've seen over two years now. I think this is

703
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 3: a slightly kind ranking for him. But there's a lot

704
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 3: to like there. It's only two years in. I don't

705
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 3: know if I see CJ. Stroud long term escaping this tier.

706
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 3: I think that I'm starting to adjust the ceiling slightly down.

707
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 3: I don't know that he's ever going to be in

708
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 3: that top four group. Maybe he gets to like the

709
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 3: five to seven sort of range. I think I'm slightly down,

710
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 3: just big picture on the upper ceiling there, but certainly

711
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 3: a good quarterback and you know, great in the playoffs

712
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 3: last year.

713
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 2: Lots to like there.

714
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think when we eventually do our skill

715
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: position group rankings, the Texans are going to be probably

716
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 1: in the bottom half for me, just given and I

717
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: think that might have played a little bit of a

718
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 1: part in his efficiency last year as well. Nico Collins

719
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 1: missing some time, stiff On digs out for the year,

720
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: Tank Dell gets hurt late in the year as well,

721
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 1: So just a lot of turnover from a receiver standpoint,

722
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 1: and maybe that might if he's actually getting some consistent

723
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 1: play where Nico does play a full seventeen games, maybe

724
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 1: that might give him a little bit of a boost here.

725
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: But you're right, and probably the ceiling for him is

726
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 1: probably fourth or fifth in the NFL football season is here, folks,

727
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 1: And we've got some huge improvements and updates coming on

728
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 1: the award winning Action Network app, which we're very excited

729
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 1: to discuss in the weeks ahead. But to get the

730
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:41,840
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731
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: an Action Pro subscriber. And it's only with Action Pro

732
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 1: that you get real time picklers from our Action Network

733
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 1: experts like myself, Brandon Anderson, Nick Giff and Sean Kerner,

734
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 1: Chris Raybond, the whole crew of experts. Plus you can

735
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: access pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive

736
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:02,839
Speaker 1: analytics team. A lot of other benefits as well, prop projections,

737
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 1: pricing and stuff like that. And right now, Action Network

738
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 1: podcast listeners, you can save twenty dollars off the annual

739
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,600
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00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 1: go to Action network dot com slash pro use code

741
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:17,359
Speaker 1: Pod twenty. That's Pod two zero, that's Actionnetwork dot Com

742
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 1: Slash Pro and use code Pod twenty for twenty dollars

743
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 1: off the annual price of Action Pro. All right, Brandon,

744
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 1: let's move now to the Tier five. This is the

745
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 1: upside swings. At twelve you have Drake May, New England

746
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 1: Patriots quarterback, At thirteen you have Trevor Lawrence with the

747
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars, and at fourteen you have Matthew Stafford. Now

748
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,839
Speaker 1: I agree probably with most of the rankings you have here.

749
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 1: I'm not sure I'm there yet on Drake. May make

750
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 1: your case, yeah.

751
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 2: I'm just very, very high long term on him.

752
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 3: I was honestly tempted to put him all the way

753
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 3: into that five to seven tier with Herbert Daniels a

754
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 3: love I think by the end of the season. I

755
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 3: think you may get there. It is too soon though

756
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 3: we've only seen not even a full season yet. But

757
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 3: to me, he has all the physical tools like Herbert,

758
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,800
Speaker 3: but I think he actually plays like in some ways,

759
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 3: like ten percent dumber than Herbert. Like Herbert takes so

760
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:14,399
Speaker 3: few chances. Drake has been aggressive, he plays loose. He's

761
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 3: been already really good as a scrambler, designed and out.

762
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 2: Of the pocket.

763
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 3: He had a horrible team context last year, terrible blocking,

764
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 3: no weapons. He was responsible for only nine percent of

765
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 3: the sacks he took by FtM last year. So he's

766
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 3: in this terrible spot for a rookie with a coach

767
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 3: that gets fired, with no blocking, with everything bad around him,

768
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 3: and still showed so many flashes. To me, I think

769
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 3: he is this year's high riser. So this is me

770
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 3: trying to get ahead of that a little bit. I

771
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 3: absolutely expect him a top ten quarterback by the end

772
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 3: of the season. I know I'm high on him, but

773
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 3: I think Drake May is.

774
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 2: The guy to take a big leap this year.

775
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 1: Okay, Matt Stafford, though, this is one that I'm I'm

776
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 1: just kind of a little unsure of whether or not

777
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 1: he's too high or too low, especially given the fact

778
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: that he had just had an epidera a large needle

779
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 1: stuck in his back for a back issue, and it's

780
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 1: not like he's a young cat anymore, and he's taken

781
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 1: a lot of hits. How did you take that information

782
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 1: to context of how you ranked him? And because I

783
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 1: feel like when he's on, he's definitely a top ten quarterback,

784
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 1: but again, takes a lot of hits, just talk to

785
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 1: me about Stafford here.

786
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've never really been a huge Stafford guy for

787
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,719
Speaker 3: some reason. With him in particular, it feels like the

788
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 3: conversation with Stafford really focuses on that one month he

789
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 3: has where he's like legitimately a top five quarterback as

790
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 3: good as anybody, and he's done that in the playoffs.

791
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 3: Pretty important month to be a top five quarterback. The

792
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,399
Speaker 3: playoff numbers are incredible, but all the rest counts too.

793
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 3: I need a quarterback for a whole season, and there

794
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 3: are a lot of bad moments and a lot of

795
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 3: inconsistencies here. Over the last three years, Stafford ranks twentieth

796
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 3: in EPA per play, twenty eighth, and completion over expected

797
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:57,919
Speaker 3: fourteenth success rate. These are not elite quarterback numbers. They're

798
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 3: not even close to elite quarterback numbers. He's a guy

799
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 3: I see at like fifth or six in a lot

800
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 3: of these QB rankings. I just can't get there over

801
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 3: a full season, because we're gonna get the high sometime

802
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 3: for like three, four or five games. We're gonna get

803
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:13,399
Speaker 3: all the rest too. By PFF grade, He's had only

804
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 3: two seasons ever where he finishes a top eight quarterback

805
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 3: He had eleven other seasons where he was somewhere from

806
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:23,240
Speaker 3: ninth to twenty first, including last year he was rated

807
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 3: twenty one, one spot ahead of Bryce Young. That's where

808
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 3: matt Stafford was last year. He's terrible under pressure, so

809
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,479
Speaker 3: we depend a lot on that. And on all top

810
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 3: of that, there's like a real chance I think that

811
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 3: he might just not play in the NFL again. Like

812
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 3: at any moment, including now, we might never see Matthew

813
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,839
Speaker 3: Stafford play in the NFL. I have to factor that in.

814
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 3: I need a quarterback to play seventeen games and then

815
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 3: three or four more after that, and I.

816
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 2: Need him to hold up.

817
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 3: We're one hit away or maybe one more giant shot

818
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 3: away from it just not happening here. So I just

819
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 3: to me, I don't see enough upside consistency wise to

820
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 3: take the swing, and there's a ton of downside here.

821
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 3: So it just kind of becomes a wild card for

822
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 3: me in the middle of the rankings.

823
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 1: Okay, so Stafford will leave him off here to the side.

824
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 1: But Trevor Lawrence, when is when are we just going

825
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 1: to give up on this idea that it's going to

826
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 1: be his breakout year because I don't see it and

827
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 1: I know that there was a lot of time coming

828
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 1: into the year or coming into his draft, like where

829
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 1: he was touted as the next one, like you know,

830
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: best prospect since Andrew Luck that kind of stuff. What

831
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 1: do we do with Trevor Lawrence here?

832
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a big season for him. This

833
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 3: is a bet on Liam Cohen ranking him this high

834
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 3: quite frankly, the new coach finding the best there.

835
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 2: He really has had a rough go of it so far.

836
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 3: We kind of forget Trevor Lawrence is only twenty five

837
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 3: years old right now. He's ad four years, one of

838
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 3: them completely lost year with urban Meyer. Then he's nine

839
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 3: and eight and eight and eight, not star, but like

840
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 3: it's fine, it's pretty good for a sophomore and a

841
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 3: junior quarterback. Then last year is terrible again, but he

842
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 3: has hurt a lot of the season.

843
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 2: That's it. That's all the data we have.

844
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 3: So we have a hurt year, we have an urban

845
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 3: Meyer year, and we have two like kind of okay

846
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 3: years with Trevor Lawrence. I think this should be his

847
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 3: best year. We need to see us some points kind

848
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 3: of reaching justin Herbert last year's status of like okay,

849
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,240
Speaker 3: arm strength, potential, all the stuff we think we're seeing

850
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 3: on a film do the thing. Sometime it's time to

851
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 3: do the thing. Trevor Lawrence. I just still think he can,

852
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 3: but we got to see it this year with William Kahn,

853
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 3: and I think Lawrence. In order to feel like the

854
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,399
Speaker 3: prophecy is coming true is you have to be able

855
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 3: to elevate yourself above those situations, like if like some

856
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:41,760
Speaker 3: other court like Joe Burrow succeeds despite Zach Taylor right.

857
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 2: Like you know what I mean, Like that kind of thing.

858
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 1: So that's enough about Trevor Lawrence from a number one

859
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 1: overall standpoint, because we now have three more guys who

860
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: all win number one overall coming up now in Tier six.

861
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 1: These are all former number one overall picks, all former

862
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 1: Oklahoma sooners as well. At fifteen we have Baker Mayfield sixteen,

863
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray seventeen.

864
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams.

865
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 1: Baker's an interesting case because again he's one of three

866
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 1: quarterbacks last year that had forty more passing touchdowns. The

867
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:13,719
Speaker 1: other two were Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. But we

868
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 1: have him down here in the fifteenth range, not in

869
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: that upper tier. So what makes Baker or even like

870
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray, such wild cards for you.

871
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he can make a case for Baker

872
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 3: to be a top ten quarterback. He certainly was last season.

873
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 3: I think we underrate maybe just how good of a

874
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 3: context he's played in. He's had a really good blocking,

875
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 3: he's had elite receivers in Tampa, and he's had great

876
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 3: play calling, although it's changed in the recent years. But

877
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 3: Dave Kanalis and then Liam Cohen both went on to

878
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 3: head coaching jobs. Now did they elevate Baker? Did he

879
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 3: elevate them? We don't really know. That's the context question again.

880
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 3: But I think he's been in a really good spot.

881
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:50,760
Speaker 3: But despite that, lots of mistakes. Still, twenty five percent

882
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,800
Speaker 3: pressure to sack rates is the second worst starter behind

883
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 3: Caleb Williams, who's also in this tier. He's had for

884
00:41:56,800 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 3: his career seven percent sack rate, almost two point seven

885
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,240
Speaker 3: percent interception and that's a really high number. Too many mistakes.

886
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,359
Speaker 3: Forty four percent success rate is too low. It's too

887
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 3: many highs and lows here. So in a lot of ways,

888
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 3: some of the stuff I said about Stafford, the highs

889
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 3: look really good. I think that I need to see it.

890
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:16,760
Speaker 3: If he does it, again this year in a third

891
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 3: new system, for a third new offensive coordinator. I think

892
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 3: he asked to be firmly a top ten quarterback after that,

893
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 3: and maybe you should be already. He's someone that I

894
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 3: would maybe quickly adjust up if things look.

895
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 2: Good right away. Tyler.

896
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 3: I just remember last year, like some game around week

897
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 3: TWN somewhere in there. I remember just watching. I'm sure

898
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 3: I was betting on the Cardinals, and I just was like,

899
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:41,360
Speaker 3: now I'm out, No, No, it's not happening. Just I

900
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 3: just I can't handle with this, Like this tiny little

901
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 3: guy out there scrambling around, running thirty yards backwards, chuck

902
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 3: it down the It just I just don't see it,

903
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:53,280
Speaker 3: Like I don't know if I believe anymore. And frankly,

904
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 3: although he was healthy last year, he missed eighteen games

905
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 3: the previous three seasons. That's an entire season of the

906
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:03,800
Speaker 3: three seasons that he didn't play. That size just isn't

907
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 3: happening for him. Obviously, he's not going to grow, so

908
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 3: it's causing him the miss games, and I think it's

909
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:10,879
Speaker 3: causing him to not be able to access the middle

910
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 3: of the field. He's really limited against pressure. It just

911
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:16,439
Speaker 3: hasn't really worked great for him. And what's interesting about

912
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,919
Speaker 3: Caleb Williams is I actually had as a scout for him.

913
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 3: Maybe he's Kyler Murray and now here they are back

914
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 3: to back in the rankings. I think frankly ranking Caleb

915
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 3: William's seventeenth league average is very kind. It is very

916
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 3: much a projection of Okay, Ben Johnson, do the thing,

917
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 3: make a quarterback out of him. I think this ends

918
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 3: up seven spots too high or too low. Right now

919
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 3: he would be much lower until we get to the

920
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 3: Ben Johnson thing. But I think Caleb Williams either dies

921
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 3: a hero or holds up all long enough to become

922
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 3: the villain. And we need to see can Ben Johnson

923
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:55,439
Speaker 3: coax some Jared Goff out of Caleb Williams but still

924
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 3: let the big plays happen. I think that's one of

925
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 3: the fun storylines that here in Chicago area. That's definitely

926
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:01,959
Speaker 3: what we'll be watching here this year.

927
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, if I had to project, I think Caleb Williams

928
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 1: is probably going to be if we're going doing this

929
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 1: exercise again going into the twenty twenty sixth season, I

930
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,280
Speaker 1: think he has the most upside to see a large

931
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:15,280
Speaker 1: rise in this just given that The quarterback situation historically

932
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,400
Speaker 1: in Chicago has always been terrible, and now you have

933
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 1: a Ben Jonson type of play caller. So yeah, at seventeen,

934
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 1: it might be a little generous given how bad it was,

935
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 1: but I think this is the right mark here for that.

936
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: The Ultimate twenty twenty five Fantasy Football Draft Kit is here.

937
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938
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Speaker 1: Flex podcast crew is having a live event later this month,

944
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Speaker 1: so here's Chris Raybond with some details.

945
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:01,399
Speaker 4: Chris Raybon here, Sean Kerner, the Maker, and I will

946
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:05,240
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947
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,919
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948
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949
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951
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952
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953
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955
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Speaker 4: and more, and it's totally free to attend. All you

956
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 4: need to do RSVP, there's a link in the episode

957
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 4: description where you can find all the details, So go

958
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 4: to that link, RSVP, save this spot, come through.

959
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 2: We will see you at Joe's Bar on Weed Street.

960
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 4: Saturday, August twenty third in the Shy for our Fantasy

961
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 4: Flex Live event presented by Yahoo Fantasy.

962
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: All right, Bradon, we're gonna move now to our eighteenth

963
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 1: ranth quarterback and from eighteen to twenty two is in

964
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:05,439
Speaker 1: this next tier. This is their seventh tier and it's

965
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 1: called It's the System Stupid. So number eighteen we have

966
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 1: Brock Party with the San Francisco forty nine ers, Number

967
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 1: nineteen Jared Goff, number twenty Aaron Rodgers, twenty one, Bo

968
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 1: Nicks with the Denver Broncos, and number twenty two to

969
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 1: Attack of Bilo with the Miami Dolphins. Now, this is

970
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 1: another one where I think the tier name is important.

971
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 1: What's the system, Like, why do you have these guys

972
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:29,840
Speaker 1: grouped together?

973
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 2: Yeah?

974
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,319
Speaker 3: The system is what's making these guys look so good.

975
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 3: The system is why you at home listening are like,

976
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 3: what Jared Goff nineteenth, Y're crazy? He was a top

977
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 3: five quarterback last year. What Brock Purty he was an

978
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,800
Speaker 3: MVP candidate two years ago. Yeah, he was an MVP

979
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 3: candidate as golf was supposedly last year in the system,

980
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 3: playing for Kyle Shanahan, playing for Ben Johnson, playing for

981
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 3: Mike McDaniel. If you're too a the system is what

982
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 3: is elevating these guys. And it's interesting we're not getting

983
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 3: meaning now like Kirk Cousins and Derek carrs of the

984
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 3: world where it's just like, okay, you, sir, are an

985
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 3: average NFL quarterback, like we all knew for years that's

986
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 3: what those guys are. Now we're getting these system guys.

987
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 3: But to me, if you are Ben Johnson, you are

988
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 3: getting the best you can out of Jared Goff until

989
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:22,359
Speaker 3: you get a Caleb Williams or until you get a

990
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 3: star quarterback. Look, we saw with the Rams Sean McVeigh

991
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 3: get good things out of Jared Goff until he had

992
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 3: a chance to go get Matthew Stafford and get the upside,

993
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 3: get the guy that can go. You know, I talked

994
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:38,360
Speaker 3: about in the Herbert Law of Daniels group, can you

995
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:41,359
Speaker 3: go win me a game? This group to me is

996
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 3: I can win with you, but I can't win because

997
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 3: of you. I might not lose because of you. That's

998
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 3: what these coaches are elite at eliminating. They're taking out

999
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 3: the mistakes, but you can't go win me the game necessarily.

1000
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 3: Now I think rock Purdy is getting close to earning

1001
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,240
Speaker 3: his way out of this conversation. I was really impressed

1002
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 3: with what he did last year, even though he finally

1003
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 3: lost a lot of the help that he'd been getting.

1004
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 3: The blocking was bad, the receivers are all hurt. McCaffrey's out.

1005
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 3: He played pretty well, he made some plays. I thought

1006
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 3: he actually is earning his way maybe up into that

1007
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,760
Speaker 3: like twelve to fifteen range, even top ten. I listened

1008
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:21,399
Speaker 3: to a case on brock Purty. What's interesting with all

1009
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 3: like four of the guys in this tier. Most quarterbacks

1010
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 3: in the NFL have a good EPA per play in

1011
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 3: the pocket, But if you're an elite quarterback. Once you're

1012
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 3: out of the pocket, you are lethal. Like Josh Allen

1013
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 3: is like zero point three six epa per play, just

1014
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:38,800
Speaker 3: gonna shred you. If you let him get out of

1015
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:41,160
Speaker 3: the pocket, he's gonna tear you apart. These guys are

1016
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 3: the opposite Rock Party in the pocket zero point two

1017
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 3: to seven epa per play.

1018
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:47,360
Speaker 2: That's MVP football.

1019
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:51,320
Speaker 3: If he's protected and Shanahan's play is running, he's gonna

1020
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 3: shred you. Regular season or postseason. But get him out

1021
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:58,400
Speaker 3: of the pocket. That number drops for brock Purty, for star.

1022
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 2: Quarterbacks, it goes up. His number goes down.

1023
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 3: Now Jared Goff and two Taega Vailoa, their number goes

1024
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 3: negative on those plays. So they haven't even bigger a

1025
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:09,960
Speaker 3: drop off here, and we've seen it like with Goff,

1026
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:12,239
Speaker 3: you get to an outdoor game, you get to a

1027
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 3: wier game. Frankly, you get to a playoff game. I

1028
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 3: think they were still treating Jared Goff kind of like

1029
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:20,800
Speaker 3: we saw Daniel Jones on the playoffs a couple of

1030
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 3: years ago, kind of with kid gloves.

1031
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 2: Hey, hey, Jared, just try not to lose this one

1032
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:25,920
Speaker 2: for us, buddy.

1033
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 3: We got a really good team Amna, he'll win it

1034
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 3: for us, Jimmy or Gibbs, he'll go make a play,

1035
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 3: just don't lose it for us. Could you handle that?

1036
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 3: And you know the defense lost for them. So it

1037
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 3: wasn't really Jared Goff's fault last year. But to me,

1038
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 3: Purty's close to saying, I think he's flashing. Now I

1039
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:46,879
Speaker 3: can go win some of these games Jared Goff when

1040
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 3: he hasn't had mcveiy or Ben Johnson. He was zero

1041
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 3: to seven without McVeigh as a RAM three ten and

1042
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 3: one without Ben Johnson in Detroit. That's not a lot

1043
00:49:57,160 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 3: of sample. But if he does the thing this year

1044
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 3: with all the coaching changes, i'mna have to respect it

1045
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 3: a little bit more. That was my number one quarterback

1046
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 3: situation for Detroit, but now Ben Johnson is gone. Frank

1047
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:12,280
Speaker 3: right now the stud center is gone. I just feel

1048
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,879
Speaker 3: like these guys, you're limited a little bit. They can

1049
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 3: do great things with great coaching. It's again kind of

1050
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 3: that Litmus tier group, but you're even more limited because

1051
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 3: you can't.

1052
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 2: Go make that big throw.

1053
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 3: And I think the coaches frankly know that with how

1054
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:27,280
Speaker 3: they call the players.

1055
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 1: Right and this is like that tier that we say,

1056
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 1: like everything needs to go right, and when it is right,

1057
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:38,319
Speaker 1: it looks awesome. The trio though of Aaron Rodgers bow

1058
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 1: nixt to, we don't have to spend too much time

1059
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:45,480
Speaker 1: on it. But just how do we feel about those

1060
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 1: rankings between twenty and twenty two.

1061
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:50,320
Speaker 3: I honestly have no idea where to put Aaron Rodgers

1062
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 3: Like you could. You could throw the dart somewhere on

1063
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 3: the board. I just I can't bring myself to put

1064
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:57,840
Speaker 3: him outside the top twenty or frankly below Bownicks.

1065
00:50:57,960 --> 00:50:59,880
Speaker 2: So that's where he is, right, I mean, you.

1066
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 1: Him, you had him off an Achilles injury, you had

1067
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 1: him fourth last year, so I think you have a

1068
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 1: very high opinion of how Air Rodgers is as a quarterback. Yeah.

1069
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:11,799
Speaker 3: I mean Rodgers was my last number one before Patrick Mahomes,

1070
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 3: so that's the previous guy there. And he was top

1071
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:17,280
Speaker 3: three for me basically forever. So I took a shot

1072
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 3: last year. It did not go well for me. It

1073
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 3: was my MVP bad. I bet on the Jets.

1074
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 2: It was very bad.

1075
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 3: I was very wrong. I think it might be over

1076
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 3: for Aaron Rodgers. He maybe it should be five ten

1077
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 3: spots below this and frankly given all the year in

1078
00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 3: Rodgers stuff, all the locker room stuff. Given if this

1079
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:34,919
Speaker 3: is the upside off, the upside has gone. I don't

1080
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 3: know if you need the downside stuff bo Nicks. Frankly,

1081
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 3: I was very out on him coming in the last year.

1082
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 3: He had a great rookie season. For a rookie to

1083
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,840
Speaker 3: come in and be that accurate, to be able to

1084
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 3: handle that situation, I think really proved that I was

1085
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 3: too low on his floor last year. I think his

1086
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 3: floor has shown competent quarterback play in this sort of

1087
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:59,280
Speaker 3: game manager group. I think he can play point guard

1088
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 3: for the right team like Tua's right below him. If

1089
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:04,839
Speaker 3: you put bow Knicks in on that offense, I think

1090
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 3: Nix would be awesome just running point, get the ball out,

1091
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 3: fast quick reads. He would do that incredibly under pressure.

1092
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:14,400
Speaker 3: The accuracy drops off. Doesn't have the arm talents or

1093
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:17,399
Speaker 3: the zip, kind of like a Gardner Minshew, but without

1094
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 3: the mustache. Maybe Like yeah, I know That's how I

1095
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 3: feel about bo Nick. So I know a lot of

1096
00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:25,960
Speaker 3: people are high on him, have him maybe like five

1097
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:28,640
Speaker 3: to eight spots higher as a young guy. I can't

1098
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 3: quite get that excited a Tua. I just think we're

1099
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:33,799
Speaker 3: kind of at fake quarterback range, Like the time to

1100
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 3: throw is impossibly low, his air yards are impossibly low.

1101
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:40,320
Speaker 2: He just is this gimmick system.

1102
00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 3: And he's able to do it, but not against good defenses,

1103
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:47,439
Speaker 3: not in bad weather. And also, by the way, he's

1104
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 3: one hit at any time for the rest of his

1105
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:51,920
Speaker 3: life away from retirement, and I have to factor that in.

1106
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 3: I want to it is safe, but I want a

1107
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 3: quarterback to win me games, so I have.

1108
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:56,880
Speaker 2: To give him some credit.

1109
00:52:56,920 --> 00:53:01,480
Speaker 3: Like all these guys outside of Rogers, the Tua, GoF

1110
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 3: and Purty, you're gonna look at like their epas and

1111
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 3: their success rates, and they're gonna be top five. They're

1112
00:53:07,160 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 3: gonna be amazing. So is Jimmy Garoppolo. And he's out

1113
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 3: of a job right now, because once you take him

1114
00:53:12,120 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 3: out of the system, you take him out of the

1115
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 3: stuff that made him look good.

1116
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:16,839
Speaker 2: And that's just where I'm at on these guys.

1117
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: All right, what three guys, I don't know really where

1118
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:23,360
Speaker 1: we're at on them, but we have to put them somewhere.

1119
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:26,560
Speaker 1: This is Tier eight, This is aptly called we just

1120
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 1: don't know yet. So at twenty three we have JJ

1121
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 1: McCarthy with the Minnesota Vikings, twenty four cam Ward with

1122
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans, and twenty five Michael Penis Junior with

1123
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:41,839
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons. What we've seen, Michael Pennix probably has

1124
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:45,279
Speaker 1: the most NFL experience of the three. How do you

1125
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 1: rank those guys coming into the year.

1126
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:49,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, we don't know. We don't know. If you think

1127
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 2: you know, you don't know.

1128
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:53,600
Speaker 3: We've seen these guys play and it combined five NFL

1129
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 3: games ever counting preseason. So remember we had to hold

1130
00:53:56,560 --> 00:53:59,160
Speaker 3: out Michael Pennix last year to protect him for some reason.

1131
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 3: And jjmcart he got hurt his first preseason game. So

1132
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 3: by the end of the weekend, by the time you

1133
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 3: listen to this, we love seeing this go from five

1134
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 3: to eight preseason games. We're gonna almost double our data

1135
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 3: of what we know about it. We don't know yet.

1136
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 3: So frankly, I just have them ranked in the order

1137
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 3: of how I had them scouted coming out of college.

1138
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,280
Speaker 3: And I just want to say it. I think people

1139
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 3: might be a little too confident on Michael Pennix based

1140
00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 3: on three games against pretty rough defenses. I know, the

1141
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 3: deep ball down the sideline, Oh chef's kiss like just

1142
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:32,720
Speaker 3: looks so good, but he's older. He's twenty five already,

1143
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:35,360
Speaker 3: he has a long injury history, and his accuracy is

1144
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:38,680
Speaker 3: really bad all over the place. Wasn't in college. Was

1145
00:54:38,719 --> 00:54:42,360
Speaker 3: again last year incredible outside of the numbers. But I

1146
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 3: think there could be a very inconsistent factor about him

1147
00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:47,719
Speaker 3: that I think folks maybe are a little bit too

1148
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 3: confident on him. With the Falcons. This year reminds me

1149
00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:51,719
Speaker 3: of a mistake I made a couple of years ago

1150
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 3: where I was like, Oh, Falcons, lots of talent, love

1151
00:54:54,880 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 3: the coaching, easy schedule, what Desmond Runner, He'll be fine game. No,

1152
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 3: they did not with all the games asen Ridder was

1153
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 3: not a good quarterback. I don't know if Pennix is

1154
00:55:05,000 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 3: Desmond Ritter, but he doesn't matter. He's got to do

1155
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 3: the stuff, and I'm not sure we know that he

1156
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:10,640
Speaker 3: can yet.

1157
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 1: Okay, now those are the ones we don't know about.

1158
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:16,400
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the ones that are at the bottom

1159
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:19,839
Speaker 1: tier that we do know about, and this is tier nine.

1160
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:22,320
Speaker 1: We're gonna start at twenty six. We've got Anthony Richardson

1161
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:24,840
Speaker 1: with the Indianapolis Colts. Number twenty seven. We have Russell

1162
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 1: Wilson now with the new York Giants. At twenty eight

1163
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:30,400
Speaker 1: we have Sam Darnold moving on now to the Seattle Seahawks,

1164
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 1: twenty ninth, Bryce Young with the Carolina Panthers, and number

1165
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:37,400
Speaker 1: thirty Justin Fields with the New York Jets. I wanted

1166
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:39,960
Speaker 1: to call this tier like hello darkness, my old friend,

1167
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:43,040
Speaker 1: because it feels bleak, like when you look at the

1168
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:45,040
Speaker 1: fact that this is your starting quarterback for your team.

1169
00:55:45,600 --> 00:55:47,799
Speaker 1: Is there anyone in this group that we have some

1170
00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:50,480
Speaker 1: hope for Maybe Sam Donald and Seattle, maybe Bryce Young

1171
00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:51,440
Speaker 1: and with the Panthers.

1172
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:54,839
Speaker 3: You know what's really funny is I think other than

1173
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 3: maybe justin the Fields, every time I look at rinking

1174
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 3: this group, I'm like, I don't know. Maybe I have

1175
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:02,880
Speaker 3: Donald like three or four spots too low. Maybe I

1176
00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:05,400
Speaker 3: should move him up to that, you know, the system group.

1177
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:08,759
Speaker 3: You know Bryce Young, he looked pretty good last three

1178
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 3: games of the season, he had great numbers. Maybe I

1179
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 3: should move him up, Like you can talk yourselves into

1180
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:17,320
Speaker 3: something with these guys. I have Anthony Richardson at the

1181
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:19,360
Speaker 3: top of the group. He can't even finish a quarter

1182
00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 3: of football right now. He gets hurt in the first

1183
00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:26,359
Speaker 3: preseason game. Looks fine. Probably I think he by just

1184
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 3: what he's been might be thirty second in the NFL

1185
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:31,200
Speaker 3: like he might be last. I'm not sure he's a

1186
00:56:31,239 --> 00:56:33,800
Speaker 3: quarterback at all. It's what I would say about Justin Fields.

1187
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 3: I think he might be a runner and not a quarterback.

1188
00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:38,720
Speaker 3: But the upside is there, and this far down the list,

1189
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 3: I'd at least rather take a shot on it. I

1190
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:43,839
Speaker 3: know you want me to defend the Sam Donald thing

1191
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 3: because that was my player as.

1192
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 1: A Vikings fan, and just the st but the fact

1193
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:51,279
Speaker 1: that you have JJ McCarthy, wh hasn't played a game

1194
00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:53,920
Speaker 1: yet and you have him ranked higher than Sam Donald,

1195
00:56:53,960 --> 00:56:55,919
Speaker 1: who had a career year last year.

1196
00:56:56,400 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is me maybe getting a little

1197
00:56:58,600 --> 00:57:00,919
Speaker 3: bit ahead of where I expect them to go this year.

1198
00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:04,480
Speaker 3: So McCarthy gets to go into maybe the best quarterback situation,

1199
00:57:04,520 --> 00:57:07,520
Speaker 3: at least certainly one of them, with great receivers, what

1200
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:10,760
Speaker 3: looks like a good run game, pretty strong blocking, great defense,

1201
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:14,080
Speaker 3: great play calling, all the stuff that made Sam Darnald

1202
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 3: look really good. But even when Sam Darnald looked really good,

1203
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 3: he still led the league and turnover worthy passes with

1204
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:22,520
Speaker 3: twenty seven last year. He's still had one of the

1205
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:25,480
Speaker 3: highest time to throw in the league. He still ranked

1206
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:29,560
Speaker 3: thirty second EPA per play out of pocket. Gino Smith

1207
00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:33,240
Speaker 3: numbers last year got really nuked in the pocket because

1208
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 3: there's no blocking in Seattle. So Sam Darnell the end

1209
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 3: of the season suddenly wasn't getting blocking and looked horrendous

1210
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:42,680
Speaker 3: for the last couple of games we remember him that

1211
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 3: was a the system was there, but the blocking wasn't.

1212
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:46,280
Speaker 2: Well.

1213
00:57:46,320 --> 00:57:48,440
Speaker 3: Now he goes to Seattle where the blocking won't be there.

1214
00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:50,200
Speaker 3: He's going to be out of the pocket a lot more.

1215
00:57:50,480 --> 00:57:52,680
Speaker 3: And he's never been good under pressure in his career,

1216
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 3: including last year where the numbers still weren't that great.

1217
00:57:56,320 --> 00:57:58,240
Speaker 3: We got a lot of good games because the the

1218
00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:01,080
Speaker 3: floor was high in the system grew. If you were

1219
00:58:01,120 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 3: still in Minnesota, I'd probably put Sam Darnald like twentieth

1220
00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:07,960
Speaker 3: or twenty seconds somewhere in that group. So I guess

1221
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 3: I'm getting a little bit ahead here, penalizing him a

1222
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:13,880
Speaker 3: little bit in advance for the Seattle play. And maybe

1223
00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:16,480
Speaker 3: that's you know, I'm projecting a bit and again try

1224
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:18,360
Speaker 3: to take the context away, and now I'm many of

1225
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:20,880
Speaker 3: the context back in. I don't know, maybe that's not fair,

1226
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:25,440
Speaker 3: but I think Sam Darnald to me, maybe showed us

1227
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:28,280
Speaker 3: true colors at the end of the season, and maybe

1228
00:58:28,320 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 3: that's just unfair as a Vikings fan that that was

1229
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:34,600
Speaker 3: the last taste in my mouth last two I'm not.

1230
00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 1: Even sure these guys are going to be starters. This

1231
00:58:37,080 --> 00:58:39,680
Speaker 1: is your final tier. You've called it, released the tank

1232
00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:44,000
Speaker 1: at thirty. First, you have the Cleveland Brown situation. I'm

1233
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:46,760
Speaker 1: calling it a situation. You have Dylan Gabriel listed. I'm

1234
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:48,280
Speaker 1: not sure he's even going to be the starter. I

1235
00:58:48,280 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 1: think it'll probably end up being Joe Flaco. But you

1236
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:54,440
Speaker 1: have at last New Orleans Saints Tyler Shuck, who did

1237
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:58,000
Speaker 1: sign a contract prior to the season once Derek Carr retired.

1238
00:58:58,280 --> 00:58:59,680
Speaker 1: I don't think we have to spend too much time

1239
00:58:59,680 --> 00:59:01,560
Speaker 1: on them. I just want to ask, how confident are

1240
00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 1: you that either of these guys could be a starter

1241
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:04,520
Speaker 1: in the NFL.

1242
00:59:05,000 --> 00:59:09,200
Speaker 3: I'm confident about nothing about either of these names, teams,

1243
00:59:09,480 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 3: quarterback rooms, nothing about them.

1244
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:14,720
Speaker 2: To me, this is my this is the team.

1245
00:59:14,840 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 3: These are the guys that I would expect the teams

1246
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 3: most prefer to be their quarterback this year.

1247
00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:21,200
Speaker 2: And here's a why.

1248
00:59:21,760 --> 00:59:24,840
Speaker 3: Dylan Gabriel eleven percent pressure to sack rate, that's a

1249
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:28,040
Speaker 3: very good, low number, one point three percent turnover worthy

1250
00:59:28,080 --> 00:59:30,480
Speaker 3: pass those are both elite metrics.

1251
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 2: That is, I don't make mistakes.

1252
00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 3: To me, that is the Browns identifying, Hey, you know what,

1253
00:59:37,160 --> 00:59:39,200
Speaker 3: we didn't get a top quarterback, but neither of the

1254
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:41,680
Speaker 3: Broncos last year, and look what they did with bow Nicks.

1255
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:44,200
Speaker 3: Could we eliminate the mistakes? This whole thing right now

1256
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:47,200
Speaker 3: with Sean Payton is fancy new metric to identify. His

1257
00:59:47,280 --> 00:59:50,240
Speaker 3: fancy metric is cutting mistakes out. Congratulations, he invented a

1258
00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:54,000
Speaker 3: mistake free metric. It's pretty good though. Don't get sacked,

1259
00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:56,360
Speaker 3: don't turn it over. You're gonna not hurt the team

1260
00:59:56,440 --> 00:59:58,040
Speaker 3: very much, and see what we can do to raise

1261
00:59:58,080 --> 01:00:02,000
Speaker 3: the floor. Tyler shuck similarly really good, and those exact

1262
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:05,520
Speaker 3: two metrics, pressure to sack and turnover worthy. He just

1263
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:08,040
Speaker 3: doesn't make a lot of mistakes, so to me, comparison

1264
01:00:08,560 --> 01:00:13,200
Speaker 3: Joe Flack on Spencer Raller their mistake machines. Now, I

1265
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 3: if I play fantasy football, how about Flak and Ratler

1266
01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:18,880
Speaker 3: out there play quarterback, throw the football down.

1267
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:20,560
Speaker 2: The field, actually play football.

1268
01:00:21,160 --> 01:00:24,000
Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm gonna get that ever, frankly

1269
01:00:24,280 --> 01:00:27,040
Speaker 3: from Dylan Gabriel or Tyler Shuck. I don't know that

1270
01:00:27,040 --> 01:00:29,320
Speaker 3: that's ever happening. I'm not even sure that I feel

1271
01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:32,800
Speaker 3: great about them being like career backups necessarily. But if

1272
01:00:32,840 --> 01:00:35,440
Speaker 3: you want to career backup, it's a guy that doesn't

1273
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:38,360
Speaker 3: make mistakes, doesn't turn it over, doesn't get sacked, can

1274
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 3: just like be out there and not screw your team over.

1275
01:00:42,520 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 3: So that's about all I know about these two. We'll see, Yeah,

1276
01:00:47,320 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 3: that's it. I have no idea who starts in these

1277
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:51,280
Speaker 3: teams or which order they should be in, but they're

1278
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 3: definitely the last two.

1279
01:00:53,160 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 2: I'll just say this.

1280
01:00:54,240 --> 01:00:57,040
Speaker 1: I feel like we spent way too much time even

1281
01:00:57,080 --> 01:00:59,480
Speaker 1: just talking about the Saints right now and the Browns,

1282
01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:02,000
Speaker 1: who are projected for like worst record in the NFL.

1283
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:03,960
Speaker 1: I like you could have told me you made up

1284
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 1: those two names, and I would have been like, oh yeah, yeah, yeah,

1285
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 1: you're right. Before we get out of here, what is

1286
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 1: like a key takeaway from you based on these ranking

1287
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 1: based on what you saw in the research and the

1288
01:01:11,880 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 1: deep dive, what's a big key takeaway that you found

1289
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:16,200
Speaker 1: when doing this rankings this year?

1290
01:01:16,320 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got five takeaways We'll just lightning round through

1291
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:19,480
Speaker 3: them and get you out of here.

1292
01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:20,040
Speaker 2: Number one.

1293
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:22,400
Speaker 3: The times are a change in three years ago in

1294
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:29,200
Speaker 3: these rankings. Top five Rogers, Brady Russell, Wilson, Top fifteen Cousins,

1295
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:34,640
Speaker 3: car Ryan Tannehill, Josh Allen, number seven, Lamar Jackson, number nine. Okay, Well,

1296
01:01:34,720 --> 01:01:37,560
Speaker 3: Lamar and Allen have MVPs. Now the other six guys

1297
01:01:37,560 --> 01:01:40,720
Speaker 3: are either retired or probably should be real soon. So

1298
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:44,400
Speaker 3: a lot is changing at quarterback. There's that void at

1299
01:01:44,400 --> 01:01:46,520
Speaker 3: the top that we talked about, that number five spot.

1300
01:01:46,520 --> 01:01:49,280
Speaker 3: Who is it who steps into that five to seven range?

1301
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:53,080
Speaker 3: Is it just next man up Hurts, Herbert dak Is

1302
01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:56,080
Speaker 3: it Daniels or Straud like the rising star we've already seen.

1303
01:01:56,680 --> 01:01:59,160
Speaker 3: Is it an unknown young guy? Is it cam Ward?

1304
01:01:59,640 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 3: Is it Pennix or McCarthy, Is at Caleb Williams. I

1305
01:02:02,880 --> 01:02:07,200
Speaker 3: think that shifting middle ground. Who's gonna step into that

1306
01:02:07,240 --> 01:02:09,280
Speaker 3: five to seven range? I think is gonna tell us

1307
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:11,280
Speaker 3: a lot about what this NFL season looks like.

1308
01:02:11,720 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 1: All right, So that's one, But what about like the

1309
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:17,280
Speaker 1: fact that, like the AFC like has the top five quarterbacks.

1310
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:20,000
Speaker 1: I feel that that's just brutal and maybe that opens

1311
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:21,480
Speaker 1: up opportunity for the NFC.

1312
01:02:22,200 --> 01:02:24,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so my number two takeaway, Number two and three

1313
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:27,120
Speaker 3: we'll do together. So number two, the AFC has the

1314
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:30,440
Speaker 3: top five quarterbacks. This was a takeaway last year when

1315
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:32,080
Speaker 3: I did the article. It's gonna take away for a

1316
01:02:32,080 --> 01:02:34,920
Speaker 3: few Why that matters is because if you have an

1317
01:02:34,960 --> 01:02:38,520
Speaker 3: AFC sleeper you like, maybe like the Patriots, maybe like

1318
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:41,760
Speaker 3: the Steelers, or maybe you're want to give two another shot,

1319
01:02:42,080 --> 01:02:44,840
Speaker 3: or especially I think I'm gonna call out the Broncos

1320
01:02:44,880 --> 01:02:48,080
Speaker 3: here we talked about bone Nicks. I have the other

1321
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:51,640
Speaker 3: three quarterbacks in his division all in my top ten.

1322
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:55,240
Speaker 3: This is a big ask. If there's five AFC quarterbacks

1323
01:02:55,240 --> 01:02:58,120
Speaker 3: one to five, there are seven playoff spots. Let me

1324
01:02:58,120 --> 01:02:58,880
Speaker 3: help you with the math.

1325
01:02:59,160 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 2: That leaves two.

1326
01:03:00,000 --> 01:03:02,400
Speaker 3: So if those quarterbacks all make it, there's only two

1327
01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:04,480
Speaker 3: spots left. Now I know Burrow didn't last year. He

1328
01:03:04,560 --> 01:03:07,800
Speaker 3: was hurt last year. I think that there's just not

1329
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 3: a lot of wiggler rooms. So be careful with your

1330
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:14,360
Speaker 3: sleeper in the AFC. In the NFC, invest in your sleeper.

1331
01:03:14,400 --> 01:03:17,320
Speaker 3: The NFC is wide open. Who's the hot quarterback? And

1332
01:03:17,320 --> 01:03:21,040
Speaker 3: I think it's probably one of Jordan Love, Jane Daniels,

1333
01:03:21,120 --> 01:03:24,439
Speaker 3: Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, maybe Matthew Stafford if he gets

1334
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:28,080
Speaker 3: out there, one of those guys on a good team

1335
01:03:28,640 --> 01:03:30,160
Speaker 3: might end up the NFC one seed.

1336
01:03:30,240 --> 01:03:33,120
Speaker 2: And I think MVP is a team award.

1337
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:36,479
Speaker 3: If you are in the AFC, you got to beat

1338
01:03:36,520 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 3: out all those other guys just to become like a

1339
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:42,120
Speaker 3: two or three seed in the NFC. That's the spot

1340
01:03:42,160 --> 01:03:44,320
Speaker 3: where you want your sleeper. If I think for MVP

1341
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:47,360
Speaker 3: or even to make the Super Bowl, which quarterback do

1342
01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:48,720
Speaker 3: you want to hit your wagon to this year? I

1343
01:03:48,720 --> 01:03:50,040
Speaker 3: think it's one of those five.

1344
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:52,320
Speaker 1: All right, last one before we wrap up, because I

1345
01:03:52,320 --> 01:03:54,280
Speaker 1: think I want you to point your flag. I want

1346
01:03:54,320 --> 01:03:57,440
Speaker 1: you because who's going to be this year's Gino Smith?

1347
01:03:57,640 --> 01:04:03,920
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield say, the resurgence, the rehabilitation project. Which quarterback

1348
01:04:04,120 --> 01:04:06,680
Speaker 1: would you pick as somebody that could now jump in

1349
01:04:06,800 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 1: rankings just based on having a good year?

1350
01:04:08,880 --> 01:04:11,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's crazy looking back at this article Gino Smith

1351
01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:13,760
Speaker 3: in my opening day ranks three years ago, I had

1352
01:04:13,840 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 3: him literally.

1353
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:17,480
Speaker 2: Dead last thirty two of thirty two. Here he is

1354
01:04:17,560 --> 01:04:19,800
Speaker 2: number ten. That was a dude that I thought was

1355
01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:20,560
Speaker 2: a placeholder.

1356
01:04:20,720 --> 01:04:23,200
Speaker 3: Like we were done. We moved on it was over

1357
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:26,080
Speaker 3: for Gino. Then the next year Baker Mayfield I had

1358
01:04:26,080 --> 01:04:28,640
Speaker 3: at number thirty one. Now he is at fifteen, and

1359
01:04:28,680 --> 01:04:30,400
Speaker 3: he'd be higher. I think in a lot of rankings

1360
01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:33,880
Speaker 3: up borderline two guys that are arguments for top ten

1361
01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:36,440
Speaker 3: quarterback that we left for dead. We were like, no,

1362
01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:39,680
Speaker 3: didn't happen. Not happening with Baker, not with Gino. So

1363
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:42,920
Speaker 3: I think the obvious answer here will be Sam Darnold.

1364
01:04:43,160 --> 01:04:45,560
Speaker 3: He already rose from we saw last year. He was

1365
01:04:45,640 --> 01:04:48,560
Speaker 3: left for dead before that. Maybe one more year, maybe

1366
01:04:48,560 --> 01:04:51,320
Speaker 3: he takes that second year step and proves it. I

1367
01:04:51,320 --> 01:04:53,200
Speaker 3: talked about why, I don't think that will happen. It's

1368
01:04:53,240 --> 01:04:56,560
Speaker 3: hard to find another choice, though. Justin Fields is a

1369
01:04:56,600 --> 01:05:00,000
Speaker 3: possible obvious choice. I don't think Justin Fields is a quarterback.

1370
01:05:00,120 --> 01:05:03,240
Speaker 3: I think he's a running back. Daniel Jones, maybe he

1371
01:05:03,240 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 3: gets the shot in Indianapolis.

1372
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:06,280
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1373
01:05:06,880 --> 01:05:09,240
Speaker 3: That kind of fits the profile here, but I can't

1374
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:12,600
Speaker 3: get excited. I thought about trying to say, how about

1375
01:05:12,680 --> 01:05:15,560
Speaker 3: Jameis Winston with the Giants. Now, I don't know if

1376
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:18,280
Speaker 3: he's gonna get a shot though, because Russ is gonna start,

1377
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:20,360
Speaker 3: and Jackson Duart's gonna play before too long.

1378
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:22,640
Speaker 2: Jamis has had some highs like.

1379
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:25,600
Speaker 3: Could Jamis become a good quarterback still with a good

1380
01:05:25,600 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 3: coach there in offense? I could kind of see that one.

1381
01:05:28,960 --> 01:05:31,080
Speaker 3: I'm gonna give you one name here. I'm gonna plant

1382
01:05:31,120 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 3: a flag that I planned it last year. How about

1383
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:39,640
Speaker 3: Bryce Young? Bryce Young? Could that late season resurgence? Could

1384
01:05:39,720 --> 01:05:43,960
Speaker 3: he be continuing to step forward? And frankly, look at

1385
01:05:43,960 --> 01:05:47,480
Speaker 3: that division. Is there a world where Bryce Young is

1386
01:05:47,520 --> 01:05:49,480
Speaker 3: the best quarterback in that division this year? I think

1387
01:05:49,520 --> 01:05:51,560
Speaker 3: there is that world. It's not gonna be the Saints

1388
01:05:51,560 --> 01:05:55,280
Speaker 3: in all likelihood. And if Pennix has some foibles like

1389
01:05:55,320 --> 01:05:57,800
Speaker 3: I think, and if Baker steps back without a good

1390
01:05:57,840 --> 01:06:00,960
Speaker 3: situation with Worf's hurt the start the year, god Win

1391
01:06:01,000 --> 01:06:04,440
Speaker 3: her to start the year, No, Liam Collen Good, Bryce Young?

1392
01:06:04,680 --> 01:06:07,200
Speaker 3: Year two with Dave Knalis, Could he take a step forward?

1393
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:10,720
Speaker 3: Maybe he's the guy that, frankly, the Panthers gave up

1394
01:06:10,720 --> 01:06:14,240
Speaker 3: on already. Maybe he proves himself to be that like

1395
01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:16,880
Speaker 3: in the middle of the league quarterback going forward.

1396
01:06:17,400 --> 01:06:17,800
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1397
01:06:17,880 --> 01:06:20,600
Speaker 3: Good luck choosing this year's Baker Darnold, though.

1398
01:06:21,120 --> 01:06:23,200
Speaker 1: I can't believe you were about to talk me into

1399
01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:27,040
Speaker 1: Panthers Island again. Because I was in with you last year,

1400
01:06:27,080 --> 01:06:29,240
Speaker 1: I'll probably ride with you again this year if you

1401
01:06:29,360 --> 01:06:30,880
Speaker 1: if you dive into it a little bit more in

1402
01:06:30,920 --> 01:06:33,200
Speaker 1: the odds are where we need it to be, all right.

1403
01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:34,480
Speaker 2: So that'll do.

1404
01:06:34,400 --> 01:06:36,640
Speaker 1: It for today's episode of the Action Network Podcast. Thank

1405
01:06:36,680 --> 01:06:38,480
Speaker 1: you for tuning in. Also, you'll hear more from us

1406
01:06:38,480 --> 01:06:40,880
Speaker 1: over the next two weeks. Brandon, I will have NFL

1407
01:06:40,960 --> 01:06:44,520
Speaker 1: rankings as I said, for skill groups, coaching staffs, offensive lines,

1408
01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:46,840
Speaker 1: and more. Don't forget to leave a nice five star

1409
01:06:46,960 --> 01:06:50,240
Speaker 1: rating review wherever you listen to the podcast. Also download

1410
01:06:50,280 --> 01:06:53,680
Speaker 1: the free Action Network app. You could save twenty dollars

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01:06:53,760 --> 01:06:56,680
Speaker 1: on an annual pro account by using pod twenty at

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01:06:56,760 --> 01:06:59,720
Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com slash bro. Also check out the Action

1413
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:02,280
Speaker 1: netw discord. There's a link in the episode of description

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01:07:02,400 --> 01:07:05,600
Speaker 1: of the podcast where you could join for free. For

1415
01:07:05,720 --> 01:07:08,400
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, I'm Jill galand thank you for listening to

1416
01:07:08,440 --> 01:07:23,720
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast and both shows.

1417
01:07:26,040 --> 01:07:29,480
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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01:07:29,880 --> 01:07:32,720
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01:07:33,000 --> 01:07:35,640
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