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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us prout read a lot?

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Speaker 1: They're up for running a game so smoothe so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 2: Six sing just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind?

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Speaker 3: But buddy, and that's why you.

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Speaker 2: See nor beautiful tiers. Look at his movements the most

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Speaker 2: dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 4: Up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying the wall. It's left to of the wide

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Speaker 2: eyed drill fibus how old earth pick that happens? Hellory one.

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Speaker 4: Welcome back to another live World Cup edition of Wondergul

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Speaker 4: Soccer betting show from the Action Network, presented to you

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Speaker 4: by Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 2: My name is Michael Lee.

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Speaker 4: I am the host this evening, and joining me as

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Speaker 4: always will be my friends, my co hosts, my role

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Speaker 4: models BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo. But before I bring

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Speaker 4: in those two gentlemen, a reminder that wonder Goal is

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Speaker 4: presented to you by Bet three six five, the world's

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Speaker 4: favorite sportsbook brand. Sign Up with promo code Action to

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Speaker 4: get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer in

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Speaker 4: New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game,

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Speaker 4: get two hundred dollars three BJ Anthony. Semi finals of

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Speaker 4: the World Cup are here, four teams left. I gotta

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Speaker 4: say we nail these ones. We knew all four of

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Speaker 4: these teams were gonna make it through. France is the

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Speaker 4: favorite to lift the trophy. There plus one ten, Argentina

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Speaker 4: right behind them plus one seventy Croatia plus seven to

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Speaker 4: fifty Morocco nine to one. Yes, that's right, Morocco, I

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Speaker 4: said Morocco. Let's start with the semifinal on Tuesday afternoon.

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Speaker 2: That's Argentina.

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Speaker 4: Their odds on on the three way money line their

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Speaker 4: minus one twenty Croatias four to one. The draw is

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Speaker 4: plus two thirty two advanced line Argentina minus two fifty

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Speaker 4: Croatia two to one. Of course those odds, Bjay, they're

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Speaker 4: from bet three six five, are very good friends. What

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Speaker 4: do you see in them?

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Speaker 5: I like Croatia plus half a goal at even money here. Listen,

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Speaker 5: Croatia was pretty good against Brazil, like what they did

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Speaker 5: a great job of defending their penalty. Are Brazils and

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Speaker 5: obviously an outstanding ball carrying team. They had eight dribbles

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Speaker 5: into the penalty area, they only completed two of them.

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Speaker 5: Brazil also didn't control a lot of possession in that match.

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Speaker 5: It was a really really good job of Croatia being

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Speaker 5: able to control the midfield. They able to play a

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Speaker 5: lot of long balls up the pitch normally out wide,

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Speaker 5: and basically attacked Brazil down the flanks. Brazil for the

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Speaker 5: first ninety minutes only created one and a half expected

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Speaker 5: goals and they only had one shot that next year,

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Speaker 5: rating over point two. So Croatia did a really really

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Speaker 5: good job controlling the midfield and defending their penalty area. Argentina,

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Speaker 5: on the other hand, they haven't really looked that great

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Speaker 5: throughout this entire tournament.

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Speaker 2: Outside of the match.

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Speaker 5: Against Poland, They've only created four and a half non

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Speaker 5: penalty expected goals in their other four matches. Even the

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Speaker 5: match against the Netherlands, even though they wont unexpected goals,

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Speaker 5: they did have a penalty.

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Speaker 2: You take away that penalty.

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Speaker 5: For the first nine minutes, they only created point six

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Speaker 5: expected goals outside of the Messi penalty. The nether Ones

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Speaker 5: had a higher expected threat, they had more ten plus

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Speaker 5: pass sequences, so Argentina really wasn't the better team. They

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Speaker 5: were better as we got deeper into extra time and

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Speaker 5: obviously one on penalties. But the theme throughout this World

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Speaker 5: Cup for Argentina is that they're just taking a ton

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Speaker 5: of low quality shots from outside the box. And if

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Speaker 5: you look through their non penalty XG per shot rating,

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Speaker 5: it's only point one one, that's thirteenth best in the

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Speaker 5: World Cup. They've only had two shots inside the six

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Speaker 5: yard box, only Iran to nishe Qatar and in one

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Speaker 5: other team ex I've lost my train of thought there,

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Speaker 5: But anyway, that's very very concerning, and going up against

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Speaker 5: this Croati team that's been very very good at defending

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Speaker 5: their penalty areas. So I think Argentina is overrated here,

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Speaker 5: just like they have been throughout the entire World Cup.

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Speaker 5: So I like Croatia plus half a goal and even money.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you.

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Speaker 4: I'm actually gonna play Croatia on the two advance line.

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Speaker 4: Ill probably play them on the three way money line

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Speaker 4: as well, maybe split the stake. Argentina is like, it's

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Speaker 4: not fair to call them fraudulent because they're not. But

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Speaker 4: they've just won games in moments like how did they

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Speaker 4: score against the net? Right? A messy, beautiful, beautiful play

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Speaker 4: and then a penalty, and then the Netherlands storms back

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Speaker 4: from a two zero deficit to send it to extra time,

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Speaker 4: which tells you a lot about Argentina that the last

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Speaker 4: twenty minutes of both of these games, both of their

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Speaker 4: knockout games, one was against Australia, by the way, like

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Speaker 4: they've looked really vulnerable, whether it's the running out of steam,

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Speaker 4: whether it's just taking their foot off the pedal or something.

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Speaker 4: They've almost blown a pair of two gold leads. They've

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Speaker 4: blown one, they've almost blown a second one. And this

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Speaker 4: Croatia team, God bless them, have just shown that their

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Speaker 4: masters that's hanging around. They've come back against Japan, they

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Speaker 4: did it against Brazil and extra time they bend, they

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Speaker 4: don't break. They have the midfield to mute Messi. I mean,

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Speaker 4: Luka Modrich versus Lionel Messi is as close as you

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Speaker 4: can get to know someone who can kind of out

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Speaker 4: while or out guile Lionel Messi. So I'm not as

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Speaker 4: afraid of Messi here. And the Argentina attack compared to

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Speaker 4: Brazil is much more. There's a lot more dimensions to

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Speaker 4: the way Brazil gets full. There's so many different ways

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Speaker 4: that they can beat you.

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Speaker 2: Argentina.

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Speaker 4: It's it's very you know, messy or nothing, And it's

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Speaker 4: an over the simplification to say, if you stop Messi

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Speaker 4: you win the game, kind of like you know, bj

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Speaker 4: how you said if England stops in Bope, they'll win

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Speaker 4: that match. It is an over simplification. But if you

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Speaker 4: stop Messi, you give yourself a really good chance. And

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Speaker 4: I actually like Croatia's opportunity to do so. So I

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Speaker 4: just think the numbers too high in Croatia. The market

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Speaker 4: is probably a little too infatuated with the you know,

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Speaker 4: Messi last World Cup narrative. So I think that's that's

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Speaker 4: you're paying a messy tax if you're going to bet

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Speaker 4: Argentina at this point. So I'm on the Croatians get

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Speaker 4: back to the World Cup final for the second straight time. Anthony,

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Speaker 4: you weren't around for the last World Cup. This is

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Speaker 4: your first World Cup. But Croatia made it to the final.

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Speaker 4: They played France. Do you like a bet on them

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Speaker 4: to get back there?

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Speaker 2: I don't necessarily.

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Speaker 3: I think this is actually kind of remarkably similar to

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Speaker 3: what happened in the Argentina Netherlands match.

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Speaker 2: The Dutch were able to keep a good.

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Speaker 3: Amount of defensive possession with their you know, quality ball

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Speaker 3: playing center backs and their midfield being the strength of

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Speaker 3: their team. And I thought they did a pretty good

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Speaker 3: job of keeping Argentina from applying constant pressure in their

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Speaker 3: penalty area. And I do think that they'll be able

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Speaker 3: to do something similar kind of what they did in

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Speaker 3: Brazil as well. Brazil being a better attacking team than Argentina,

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Speaker 3: a better team than Argentina overall, probably makes it a

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Speaker 3: little bit difficult to say that Croatia will be able

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Speaker 3: to put up a similar performance. But I do think

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Speaker 3: Croatia's defensive midfield to Croatia's ability to keep the ball

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Speaker 3: in the midfield will give them a good chance and

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Speaker 3: a good platform to build off of. And I agree

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Speaker 3: with what you said, Michael. I think this Argentina defense

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Speaker 3: has been a little bit overvalued. I thought that coming

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Speaker 3: into this tournament, and I still think that anytime a

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Speaker 3: team has really had to go at them, they've had

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Speaker 3: a lot of success. I mean, you can go back

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Speaker 3: to the first match. Saudi Arabia didn't really do much

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Speaker 3: attacking in the first half of that match. They created

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Speaker 3: one or two three direct opportunities and scored off of them.

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Speaker 3: Of course, they were a little bit fortunate to get

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Speaker 3: two goals off of that, but did create good openings

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Speaker 3: on their first real attacks of the match. And then

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Speaker 3: you could go into the Australia match. Like you mentioned,

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Speaker 3: Australia was able to cause serious problems in the penalty

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Speaker 3: area for Argentina, even though it didn't quite come off.

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Speaker 3: And then the match just the other day against the Dutch,

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Speaker 3: I mean Argentina defended very deep, looked very under pressure,

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Speaker 3: committed a lot of silly fouls, made some very questionable decisions,

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Speaker 3: and conceded a two goal lead in the.

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Speaker 2: Final ten minutes. That's a big red flag.

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Speaker 3: So I think that you know, when this match begins,

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Speaker 3: you're going to see Argentina be pretty conservative and pretty

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Speaker 3: slow paced to begin it. But I do think that

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Speaker 3: you know, as soon as we get one goal here,

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Speaker 3: as soon as something does happen, there's a potential for

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Speaker 3: this match to spring into life. And I do think

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Speaker 3: both teams to score is actually a little bit undervalued

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Speaker 3: at plus one twenty five. Croatia's defense in this tournament

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Speaker 3: has been fortunate. They've been very good last ditch defending,

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Speaker 3: Guardiol and Lava in the two center backs top four

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Speaker 3: and clearances in this entire tournament, So there.

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Speaker 2: Has been pressure on the penalty area.

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Speaker 3: But not only has the defensive center backs been incredibly

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Speaker 3: effective at clearing their lines and making excellent plays within

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Speaker 3: their penalty area under a lot of pressure, but Lavakovich

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Speaker 3: has been the best goalie in the tournament. He's saved

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Speaker 3: about three point one goals worth of chances based on

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Speaker 3: post shot expected goal difference. That's more than anybody else

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Speaker 3: in this tournament. And yes, you can ride the hot goalie,

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Speaker 3: but the odds are and the history suggests there will

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Speaker 3: be regression for this Croatian defense that was ultimately pretty

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Speaker 3: fortunate to only concede one to Brazil when you consider, yes,

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Speaker 3: there were a lot of half chances, but normally those

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Speaker 3: levels of chances do get converted at some point.

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Speaker 2: I do think Argentina will.

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Speaker 3: Be quite as conservative as they were against the Dutch

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Speaker 3: because they're not going to match three at the back.

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Speaker 2: I thought that was a very defensive tactical decision.

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Speaker 3: They'll go back to a back four here, I think

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Speaker 3: Argentina will, so that will also make it more likely

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Speaker 3: that they'll be more a bit more aggressive here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Levakovic is the favorite to win the Golden Glove award,

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Speaker 4: which is given to the best goalkeeper.

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Speaker 2: At the World Cup.

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Speaker 4: And just one other note before we toss to Darren Rivel,

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Speaker 4: who is going to break down the betting market report

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Speaker 4: for us. He's going to tell us what the folks

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Speaker 4: on the other side of the window are seeing for

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Speaker 4: the semi finals. I think Croachia also is a good

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Speaker 4: live betting team, and they've proven that. Maybe that's a

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Speaker 4: little obvious to say with the two comebacks, but they're

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Speaker 4: just not going to get blown out more likely than not.

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Speaker 4: They're clever, they can stay in games, they can manage situations,

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Speaker 4: they know how to like weather storms. So I like

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Speaker 4: Croatia across the board, whether you want to play them

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Speaker 4: pre match on the three way line to advance or

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Speaker 4: if you're just looking for an opportunity to bet them

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Speaker 4: if the field's tilted against them, or if they go

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Speaker 4: down early to this Argentina side. And with that, and

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Speaker 4: before we talk about France and Morocco, let's hear from

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Speaker 4: our buddy Darren Raville.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Mike.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about some of the odds going in and

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Speaker 1: how people are betting them for Croatia. This is just

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Speaker 1: full time forty four percent of the bets on Croatia

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Speaker 1: plus three seventy Argentina minus one point fifteen forty four

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Speaker 1: percent of the bets. A draw in full time is

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Speaker 1: twelve percent. Then actually to advance, and I'm sure people

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Speaker 1: listening now now understand the difference end of full time,

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Speaker 1: but just advance to win in any fashion Croatia plus

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Speaker 1: one ninety five thirty seven percent of the bets on

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Speaker 1: Croati and Argentina minus two forty five sixty three percent

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Speaker 1: of the bets. Now, let's go to the other game.

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Speaker 1: Morocco France, Morocco plus six hundred fifty percent of the

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Speaker 1: bets on Morocco full time plus six hundred France minus

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Speaker 1: one eighty five forty two percent and at plus three

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Speaker 1: hundred eight percent of the bets are on draw. Then

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Speaker 1: to advance Morocco plus three thirty thirty five percent of

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Speaker 1: the bets on Morocco and France a whopping minus four

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Speaker 1: fifty sixty five percent of the bets for France to

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Speaker 1: advance to the final.

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Speaker 2: Mike Bank to you.

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Speaker 4: That was wonderful, Thank you, Darren. Let's talk now France

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Speaker 4: and Morocco Les Bleu Bjay minus one eighty eight on

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Speaker 4: the three way line, Morocco seven to one the draw

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Speaker 4: plus two to seventy five to advance, France minus four

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Speaker 4: fifty plus three thirty three for Morocco to get to

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Speaker 4: the World Cup final.

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Speaker 2: France O the World Cup favorites. It's hard to see.

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Speaker 4: How the Moroccan game plan kind of changes from Spain

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Speaker 4: and Portugal, or you can even go further back Belgium Croatia.

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Speaker 4: But does it work again.

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Speaker 5: I'm not so sure. I mean, the problem here with

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Speaker 5: Morocco is, yes, I think they win the award for

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Speaker 5: the World Cup of being the most compact team, but

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Speaker 5: they have some injury concerns on their defense. Roman Seiscott

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Speaker 5: caught it off the field, which is their best left

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Speaker 5: center back.

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Speaker 2: A Gird wasn't even on the bench.

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Speaker 5: Masarawi wasn't eve on the bench against Portugal, so having

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Speaker 5: to defend Himbape, Jerud Gray Smun Demble. It's kind of

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Speaker 5: concerning when the drop off from those two center backs

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Speaker 5: is quite drastic in this Moroccan team. But I mean,

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Speaker 5: Sofie Amraabat has just been everywhere on the pitch. He's

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Speaker 5: my pick right now for Golden Ball. He has been

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Speaker 5: by far their best player. He's really helped out their

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Speaker 5: back line taking away those passes in between the lines.

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Speaker 5: And that's what Morocco has done such a good job

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Speaker 5: of is that they've basically forced these teams to just

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Speaker 5: rotate the ball back and forth outlide. But where does

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Speaker 5: Portugal and where does Spain beat you? They beat you

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Speaker 5: right through the middle of the pitch. And where does

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Speaker 5: France beat you. It's out wide with Himbape and it's

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Speaker 5: out why it's in bilet So obviously they have a

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Speaker 5: Trafikimi and Bape's teammates, so he'll be able to match

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Speaker 5: his pace and defend him pretty well, similar to how

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Speaker 5: Kyle Walker did for England. But I'm not so sure

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Speaker 5: that Morocco can keep holding up like this. I mean,

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Speaker 5: they've conceded four point three expected goals and have allowed

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Speaker 5: opponents to.

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Speaker 2: Score a goal.

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Speaker 5: You know, the only goal that they allowed was against

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Speaker 5: Canada and that was an own goal. But I like

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Speaker 5: Morocco to score here at even money. The French defense

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Speaker 5: has looked pretty vulnerable throughout this tournament. I mean they've

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Speaker 5: conceded in every single match so far in this World

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Speaker 5: Cup they allowed over one non penalty expect to go

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Speaker 5: to both Poland and England, and England had so much

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Speaker 5: space going forward, especially just throwing long balls up the pitch,

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Speaker 5: which is basically what Morocco will do. They have outstanding

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Speaker 5: wingers in Zieck and Boofal, and obviously in Seri has

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Speaker 5: some major hops and is a great center man to

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Speaker 5: get on the end of some of those crosses. So

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Speaker 5: I like Morocco to score here. I think over half

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Speaker 5: a goal at even money is a little cheap for

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Speaker 5: this team, and especially if France does score first and

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Speaker 5: Morocco eventually does concede, the match is going to open

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Speaker 5: up and Morocco's going to have to go forward. So

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Speaker 5: I think there's as a decent price on Morocco to

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Speaker 5: score here at even money.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Morocco stows some value here, whether it's

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Speaker 4: once again to advance or on the money line. Seven

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Speaker 4: to one on the money line I think is a

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Speaker 4: great price. They played like a great underdog. I thought

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Speaker 4: against Spain they did exactly what they had to do

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Speaker 4: to get the game deep into the business end, to

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Speaker 4: extra time, to penalties. That was really the only way

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Speaker 4: they would get to beat Spain, but they really won

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Speaker 4: that match against Portugal like they were the better team.

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Speaker 4: The expected goals showed that, and I think that there's

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Speaker 4: a pretty wide gap between Portugal and France. But there's

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Speaker 4: definitely some reason to be confident that Morocco can play

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Speaker 4: with France if they go behind, which I think is

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Speaker 4: really important here because of the stuff you just said,

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Speaker 4: which is I don't expect them to be able to

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Speaker 4: pitch a clean sheet here, but I do think that

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Speaker 4: in an open game they're not dead in the water.

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Speaker 4: So I actually think that there's some some avenues to

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Speaker 4: success for Morocco enough that the money and to advanced

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Speaker 4: line are more than worth a sprinkle here. I trust

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Speaker 4: the defense. The defense is what gives them the foundation,

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Speaker 4: what gives them the platform to turn a game into

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Speaker 4: a coin flip. But they're dangerous going forward, They're dangerous

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Speaker 4: on set pieces. So I just think that this team

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Speaker 4: still has a little bit more value in it at

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Speaker 4: these prices. Anthony Lebla Atlas Lions, who gets through.

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Speaker 3: I think France ultimately probably gets through, but I'm actually

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Speaker 3: going to take Morocco plus one. I think Bja mentioned

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Speaker 3: a good point about monitoring the injuries A guard Sais

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Speaker 3: Masrawi definitely a problem. They didn't have two of them

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Speaker 3: though against Portugal and still were able to do an

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Speaker 3: excellent job defensively. They are definitely the most compact team

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Speaker 3: of the tournament. But I think it's very interesting. Croatia, Belgium,

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Speaker 3: Spain and Portugal all want a need to have the

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Speaker 3: ball to be effective, and I think that is a

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Speaker 3: stark contrast to what you're going to see between France

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Speaker 3: and Morocco. Because France is a team that doesn't really

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Speaker 3: need the ball. They'll seed possession, they'll seed space, and

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Speaker 3: they want to hit you in trans position. That would

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Speaker 3: be a very different tactical situation than what we've seen

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Speaker 3: from Morocco. Of course, they're going to be the more

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Speaker 3: defensive team overall, but I wouldn't expect them to have,

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Speaker 3: you know, eighteen percent of the ball like they did

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Speaker 3: against Spain, or less than thirty five percent of the

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Speaker 3: ball like the Portugal match. I do think that they'll

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Speaker 3: have actually a little bit more of the possession because

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Speaker 3: France will give that to them, and then the question

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Speaker 3: is what can Morocco do to create there? And I

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Speaker 3: actually agree with both of you that there's a path

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Speaker 3: of success for this team going forward, and it's the crossing.

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Speaker 3: Because France does not apply a much ball pressure out

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Speaker 3: of possession. They're very tentative and conservative defensively, they don't press,

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Speaker 3: they don't really have a high passes per defensive action.

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Speaker 3: It's a very passive defense, and so I think that

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Speaker 3: actually creates room for zek and the Kimmy to get

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Speaker 3: forward and get crosses into end this serie, like you mentioned,

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Speaker 3: and Boofal is a pretty capable runner. The problem is

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Speaker 3: if Morocco does that and Zeke and a Kimmi are

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Speaker 3: getting forward. The main reason that France struggled to get

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Speaker 3: in Bopp going the last match because Sokka and Walker

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Speaker 3: were so defensive and getting better and kind of.

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Speaker 2: Avoiding those one on one matchups.

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Speaker 3: Does that create space for Ambappe over the top out wide.

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Speaker 3: So that's the biggest question mark I think tactically is

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Speaker 3: how aggressive is Morocco. But France is not a dominant

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Speaker 3: favorite who is capable of sustaining final third pressure because

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Speaker 3: they just don't do enough ball winning to keep the

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Speaker 3: ball in the other opponent's final third. So I actually

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Speaker 3: Morocco won't be under nearly as much pressure as they

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Speaker 3: were for parts of the Spain in the Portugal match,

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Speaker 3: and they can hit them in transition. You'd have to

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Speaker 3: think France is considerably better than Spain, given that Spain

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Speaker 3: was just a touch under this number. They're minus one

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Speaker 3: seventy one seventy five. Now it's up to minus one

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Speaker 3: ninety with a lower total. So I like Morocco plus

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Speaker 3: one here, like you guys, you know you mentioned also like,

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Speaker 3: do we think they could get cooked if they get

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Speaker 3: you know, they go down an early goal, probably, but

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Speaker 3: they're probably not going to concede an early goal.

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Speaker 2: They've been a leade defensively.

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Speaker 4: Alternament, it would be a dereliction of my duties here,

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Speaker 4: so the hosts of the show to end it without

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Speaker 4: mentioning one quick thing too. Golden Ball market right now,

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Speaker 4: it's killing Abope and Lionel Messi. They're both very you

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Speaker 4: neck and neck plus one hundred plus one twenty five

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Speaker 4: propping up the market. Antoine griezmon of France. If you

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Speaker 4: think our Croatia has a chance to upset Argentina, I

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Speaker 4: would hop on that. I think that he should be

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Speaker 4: pretty much priced much closer to Mbope and Messi than

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Speaker 4: he is. He was their best player against England. If

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Speaker 4: he puts in another performance like that against Morocco, I

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Speaker 4: think we'll see him in the short single digits. So

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Speaker 4: for that. With that, i'll leave you guys. Anthony BJ

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Speaker 4: thank you again, thank you for watching. Good luck with

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Speaker 4: all your bets in the World Cup semi finals. My

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Speaker 4: name is Michael lebuff This has been wonderful.