1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,520 Speaker 1: With the IVA caucuses coming up on January fifteenth, I 2 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:06,120 Speaker 1: wanted to have someone to come on the show to 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: just give us straight analysis, to just look at the data, 4 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: let us know what's going on in the Republican primary. 5 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: Is there a lane for anyone besides Donald Trump at 6 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: this point? If so, what does that lane look like? 7 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: Is the world where Joe Biden is not the Democrat nominee. 8 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: I've got a lot of questions about the twenty twenty 9 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: four presidential election, and who better to have on the 10 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: show than Tom Bevian, who's the co founder and president of. 11 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 2: Real Clear Politics. 12 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 1: Of course, we always look to Real Clear Politics to 13 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 1: get a better glimpse at polling and see where races stand. 14 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 1: So I'm looking forward to having Tom on to really 15 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: break this down for all of us as we start 16 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: to get into heavy election season. Stay tuned for Tom Bevan. 17 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: All right, Well, Tom Bevan, it's great to have you 18 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 1: on the show. I appreciate you making the. 19 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 2: Time, absolutely great to be with you. We can't help. 20 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: But feel like, at least for the report, bab and Primer, well, 21 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: I may, I guess we're both right, but that this 22 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: is sort of inevitable, that you know, it's going to 23 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 1: be Trump, It's going to be Joe Biden. You know, 24 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,680 Speaker 1: we're coming up on the Iowa caucuses. Is there a 25 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 1: path for any other Republican besides Trump. 26 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 2: Look, he's in a very strong position, right, He's up 27 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 2: thirty five and a half points in our in our 28 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 2: ro Claar Politics average as of today. We have two 29 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 2: new polls that have come out in the new year, 30 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:30,680 Speaker 2: but we're still waiting for some more data. But those 31 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 2: new polls show him improving his position, not not Hailey surging, 32 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 2: not you know, Desants is making some big moves. So 33 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 2: the race looks really stable. Now that doesn't mean that 34 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 2: there can't be a surprise that happens on Monday. I mean, 35 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 2: the only way this, in my opinion, the only way 36 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 2: that this kind of really works, is if you have 37 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 2: someone like Haley. Let's take her as the best example. 38 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 2: Who who you know, She's at sixteen point six percent 39 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 2: in our RCP average, right, So say she does doubles 40 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 2: her you know somehow, she you know, has a late surge, 41 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 2: she gets a lot of votes at the caucuses, and 42 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 2: she finishes you know, thirty thirty two percent. And let's 43 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 2: say Trump, who is at fifty two percent in the 44 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 2: RCP average, you know, underperforms and is at forty five 45 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 2: percent or something. Then you'd have a narrative which you know, 46 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 2: the media would love this and they would run with 47 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 2: it for sure, that you know, Hailey surging and Trump 48 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 2: is vulnerable, right even though he wins, and he wins 49 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 2: by ten points, that would be a narrative where he 50 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 2: didn't he didn't beat expectations, He didn't meet expectations. She did, 51 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 2: and therefore you have you know, oh, we're off to 52 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,839 Speaker 2: New Hampshire and where the race is. You know, it's 53 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 2: closer in New Hampshire. I mean, there's definitely signs Trump's 54 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 2: lead there is is down to under fourteen points in 55 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 2: our RCP average. We have two new polls out, one 56 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 2: that has this see an end poll it just came 57 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 2: out had Trump's lead over Haley only at seven percent. 58 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 2: The USA Today poll had him up twenty points. So 59 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 2: but overall, he's he's you know, his lead is not 60 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 2: as big there as it is in Iowa. And so yeah, 61 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 2: that's a scenario where you could see something happening. But 62 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 2: you know, if Trump wins in Iowa by twenty or 63 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 2: twenty five points, and Nikki Haley, you know, she her 64 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 2: polls are at sixteen and she finishes at twenty. You know, 65 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 2: it's going to be really really hard for the media 66 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 2: to make that case, even though they're going to want 67 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 2: to make it very badly. 68 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: You know, I mean, Desanta's has put in a lot 69 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: of time and money into Iowa. How difficult are the 70 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: Iowa caucuses to pull? And you know, what do you 71 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: make of sort of that time and effort in there 72 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: will bear any fruit. 73 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 2: The Iowa caucuses are hard to pull because they're pretty 74 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 2: low turnout. So you know, people who suggest to polsters 75 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 2: that they're going to on caucus night they are actually 76 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 2: going to go and you know, sit there and listen 77 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 2: to speeches and then and then vote may not be 78 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 2: telling the truth. Or you know, I mean, the weather's 79 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 2: not going to be great. It's going to be really 80 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 2: really cold on Monday right now, and so that might 81 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 2: keep some people home, so you may not that produces 82 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:20,599 Speaker 2: some of the elements of you know, a possible upset 83 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 2: or something, you know, surprise happening. Listen. In twenty sixteen, 84 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 2: Trump was leading in all the polls in Iowa, but 85 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 2: he he ended up losing to Ted Cruz by about 86 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 2: three and a half points. No, the difference there was 87 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 2: about ten from where the caucus is finished. In twenty twelve, 88 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 2: it was a much more fluid race. It was where 89 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 2: you also had you know, Rick Santorum with late surge, 90 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 2: who ended up winning by one tenth of one percent 91 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 2: over Mitt Romney. And so you had some of the 92 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 2: polls there that were wrong. Some of them had Ron 93 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 2: Paul winning that race, some of them had Mitt Romney. 94 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:01,479 Speaker 2: But you know, fast forward to today, and the difference is, 95 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 2: you know, Trump is so far ahead and is so 96 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 2: consistently ahead in the polls that they would all have 97 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,799 Speaker 2: to be not just wrong, but way wrong, like outside 98 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 2: the margin of error, like the sample. And is that possible? Yes? 99 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 2: Is it likely? No? I don't think it is. I mean, again, 100 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 2: you might have Hailey overperformed. You might have desantus because 101 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 2: again to your point, he spent a lot of time 102 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:29,039 Speaker 2: and effort, and he's got like sixty thousand I read, 103 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 2: he's got like sixty thousand caucus commitments, people who have 104 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 2: you pledged that they're going to show up and vote 105 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 2: for him. So that might bear some fruit, and he 106 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 2: could overperform his polls, but the idea that he could actually, 107 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 2: you know, that either one of them could really outright 108 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 2: beat Donald Trump seems to be pretty far fetched at 109 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 2: this point. 110 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: Well, and the challenge too, as you know, is, and 111 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: we know how consequential. The first four primary states are 112 00:05:55,960 --> 00:06:00,480 Speaker 1: to either nomination Republican or Democrats. And so you know, 113 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: if you've got Desanti's let's say somehow he pulls off 114 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: an upset in Iowa, you know, he gets stopped in 115 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 1: New Hampshire, right, some of that momentum gets killed in 116 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: New Hampshire likely, or vice versa. Let's say Nikki Haley 117 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,919 Speaker 1: somehow pulls off an upset in New Hampshire. You know, 118 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: South Carolina looks really good for Trump. So was there 119 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 1: ever a lane for someone else in this Republican primary 120 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: or do you think just Trump's basically running like an 121 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 1: incumbent and that is just how it was always going 122 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: to be. 123 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 2: I think there was, at least the data suggested that 124 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 2: there was when this started. I mean, if you go 125 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 2: back and look at the national averages, I mean, DeSantis 126 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 2: was within striking distance of Trump when he when he 127 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 2: started his campaign, he was at you know, ten or 128 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 2: fifteen points behind Trump. Some poles had him even at 129 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 2: single digits. There was this idea that, you know, it 130 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 2: might be time to move on from Trump, and DeSantis 131 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 2: was super hot and popular at that time. I think 132 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 2: he just ran a really flawed campaign, and I think 133 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 2: in retrospect, you know, it would have taken just a 134 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 2: different I mean, he had he had to win over 135 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 2: Trump voters, and he had to do that without alienating them, 136 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 2: and so going in there and attacking Donald Trump and 137 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 2: saying he you know, he didn't fire Fauci, and he 138 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 2: was a lockdown guy and you know, transgender stuff and immigration, 139 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 2: he didn't do this, didn't do that. It turned out 140 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 2: to not actually win over any of those Trump voters, 141 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 2: and so that I think is just his whole theory 142 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 2: of the case was wrong, and the way he ran 143 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 2: his campaign was was lawed and therefore didn't produce. Had 144 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 2: he run it differently, there might have been a potential 145 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 2: for him to actually pull this off. But yeah, I mean, 146 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 2: I do think once that die was cast and he 147 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 2: went in that direction, it became Donald Trump's race to lose. 148 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 2: And he hasn't, you know, really looked back. He's only 149 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 2: gotten stronger as the indictments have come as the you know, 150 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 2: primary has worn on, and I think, you know what 151 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,679 Speaker 2: we're going to see with this these you know, final debates. 152 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 2: It'll be Nikki Haley and Ron De Santis on a 153 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 2: stage for ninety minutes, like tearing into each other, while 154 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 2: Donald Trump's going to be, you know, sitting off and 155 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 2: having a nice conversation with Brett and Martha on Fox News. 156 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 2: And He's just He's won every step of the way 157 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 2: by by staying out of the fray and letting these 158 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 2: candidates attack each other and then also try and attack him. 159 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: Although in fair it is I feel like it was 160 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: a really tight rope for anyone to walk in the 161 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 1: sense of, like you have to create a narrative and 162 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: you have to convince voters that there has to be 163 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 1: a different path from Trump while simultaneously still needing some 164 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: of his voter base. 165 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 2: So it's a you know what I mean. 166 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: So that's almost like a really tough scenario for anyone 167 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 1: to kind of try to navigate. I feel like taking 168 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: on someone who is sort of in a position of 169 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: incumbency like Trump is. How much do you think the 170 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: indictments ended up helping Trump in the primary? 171 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 2: At least, I think they helped a lot. I mean, 172 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 2: I think in particularly the way they came down this 173 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 2: first one from Alvin Bragg, which just seemed just so 174 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 2: political on its face. I mean that sort of colored 175 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 2: everything that happened after that. These the subsequent indictments, and 176 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 2: the data supports us. I mean, you know, you look 177 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 2: at most Republican voters, even independence say that that a 178 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 2: lot of these suits are are politically motivated. They lack merit, 179 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 2: They're you know, trying to get Donald Trump off the ballot, 180 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. So the way that it has 181 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 2: has played out has definitely I think helped Trump and 182 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 2: and rallied people to his even folks who may have 183 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 2: been open to voting for someone else, they ended up 184 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 2: rowling to his side the more he was attacked. And 185 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 2: I actually, I mean I agree with you, Lisa that 186 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 2: it was always a tough thing. I mean, I I 187 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 2: had said publicly before you know this was gonna that 188 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 2: DeSantis was going to have all of these folks in 189 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 2: his ear telling him how great he was and that 190 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 2: he needed to do this for them party and for 191 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 2: the country, and he'd have all the money that he 192 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 2: needed and you know, he was the only guy who 193 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 2: could do this, but it was basically a fool's errand 194 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,679 Speaker 2: for him to try and get in a you know, 195 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 2: sort of mud wrestling match with Donald Trump for eighteen 196 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 2: months and it would ruin his you know, maybe not 197 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 2: his entire political career, but it would certainly take the 198 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 2: shine off of his big victory in twenty twenty two. 199 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 2: And that's kind of what happened. I mean, he's going 200 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 2: to leave if he does not perform well next Monday 201 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 2: night in Iowa. He's probably I mean, he's already in 202 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 2: fourth place in New Hampshire. In some polls he's in 203 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:38,960 Speaker 2: fifth place. I mean, he's going to have to get out. 204 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 2: There's just no place for him to go. There's no 205 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 2: path forward, and that's going to be a real low 206 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 2: point for him for someone who started with with as 207 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,599 Speaker 2: high of expectations as as I think a lot of 208 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 2: people had for him quick commercial break. 209 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: More on the other side, I think, you know, Nikki 210 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: Haley might end up being able to stay in longer 211 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: just because she has all these big billionaire donors like 212 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 1: the Koch Brothers, et cetera. 213 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 2: That you have sort of been backing her. 214 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 1: You know, I think the Santa's maybe there's a little 215 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 1: bit too much overconfidence heading from the midterms when you know, 216 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: that was different because obviously voters in Florida had experienced 217 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 1: his leadership for four years, right when in reality this 218 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:19,959 Speaker 1: was probably more like twenty eighteen when you're running for 219 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:23,719 Speaker 1: the first time and people, you know, haven't had that experience, right, 220 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:25,679 Speaker 1: so they didn't really get to see what he's like 221 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 1: as governor. You know, it's one thing to see it 222 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 1: versus being told how do you think the indictments play 223 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: out in a general election. I just I'm not convinced 224 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: that moderates and independent voters, even though you know those 225 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 1: are fewer and far between these days, are going to 226 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 1: have the same level of sympathy on this as Republican 227 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 1: primary voters. 228 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 2: It's a good question. It's it's sort of unnable. I mean, 229 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 2: there has been polling that suggested that if he's convicted, 230 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 2: that that will somehow be a tipping point and people 231 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 2: will be turned off from that and certainly will give 232 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 2: additional ammunition to Biden and the Democrats to run ads 233 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 2: saying he's you know, he's convicted of whatever. But on 234 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 2: the other hand, as I mentioned, there's some data suggesting that, 235 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 2: you know, even Independence think that some of these cases, 236 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 2: these suits have been politically motivated. Trump will obviously be 237 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 2: able to claim that this is persecution, not prosecution, and 238 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 2: that he's the victim here and this is a terrible thing. 239 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 2: So I'm not one hundred percent sure that it's going 240 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 2: to be as consequential as as some people suggest. I mean, 241 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 2: everything that we see is that this is going to 242 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 2: be a really close election, and if it is Trump 243 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 2: and Biden and it's a it's the election that nobody wants, 244 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:44,679 Speaker 2: but you know, we're going to suffer through apparently, and 245 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 2: that I suspect it's going to be a pretty close 246 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,959 Speaker 2: because the country's just so evenly divided and has been 247 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 2: for some time, and it's going to be a rerun 248 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:55,960 Speaker 2: of the movie we saw in twenty twenty, but probably 249 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 2: a worse version of it. 250 00:12:57,400 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 1: My concern is, you know, Joe Biden, clearly, with all 251 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: this threat that democracy stuff, is not really trying to 252 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 1: run that much on his record of accomplishments and is 253 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: more just trying to convince people that the other side 254 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: is worse right and so Republicans in IAmA and obviously, 255 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: but if Republicans are spending the entire time litigating, you know, 256 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: these indictments and things of that nature, we're not having 257 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: the opportunity to win over people in the middle to 258 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 1: get Trump passed the finish line. So I guess that's 259 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 1: that's a concern of mine. 260 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 2: It could be a valid concern. I think we'll have 261 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 2: to wait and see how it plays out. I mean, 262 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 2: the flip side is that, you know, is Joe Biden, 263 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 2: even though Trump is sort of a quasi incumbent, right, 264 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 2: Joe Biden is the incumbent. And so if he spends 265 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 2: all of his time saying, you know, democracy dies if 266 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 2: Trump's elected, you know, you can't have this. You can't 267 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,959 Speaker 2: do that. He's terrible. You know, all of his supporters 268 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 2: are fascists and Nazis and all that. You know, he's 269 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 2: not going to be talking about his record. He can't 270 00:13:56,120 --> 00:14:00,439 Speaker 2: talk about his record. And is that enough to get 271 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 2: him across the finish line. I don't know that it is. 272 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 2: That's why I think it is going to be a really, 273 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:09,559 Speaker 2: really close election because obviously there are plenty of folks 274 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 2: who are not just Republicans but independence and who are 275 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 2: really concerned about the state of the economy and immigration 276 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 2: and other issues that will be a real drag for 277 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 2: Biden in a general election setting. 278 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: Of course, you know the irony of that is they're 279 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: saying it's a threat to democracy. Well simultaneously you know, 280 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: laterally trying to remove him from the ballot and deny 281 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: people the opportunity to exercise they're voting voice. So like, 282 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: I don't know how in doune with people are with 283 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: that of you know, how wrong and hypocritical that is. 284 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: But I guess we'll see how that ends up playing out. 285 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: You know, is there a world where Joe Biden is 286 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: not the Democrat nominee next November? 287 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 2: Sure? 288 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: I think that's And what would that look like, Like, 289 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: how does that go down? 290 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 2: I don't know what the odds are, you know, it's 291 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 2: if it's like two percent or ten percent or twenty 292 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 2: perc So there was a story out there was a 293 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 2: top sort of strategist from JP Morgan who put in 294 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 2: his sort of annual report of the ten surprises that 295 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 2: are coming this year, and one of them was Joe 296 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 2: Biden is not going to be the Democratic nominee. He's 297 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 2: going to drop out sometime after Super Tuesday and before 298 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 2: the convention. I think that's within the realm of possibilities, 299 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 2: but you know, the mechanics of how that's going to 300 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 2: happen are still a bit murky. Right. He would have 301 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 2: to win enough delegates to become the nominee, and then 302 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 2: he would have to basically go to convention and say 303 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 2: I'm stepping aside for health or whatever and ask all 304 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 2: of his you know, delegates to vote for whomever, right, 305 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 2: And the question is, well, who would that be? Would 306 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 2: it be Kamala? And if it's not Kamala, you know, 307 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 2: is it Gavin Newsom? Is it Michelle Obama? Is it? 308 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 2: You know? And and how badly does that fracture the 309 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 2: Democratic Party? And you know how many hurt feelings and 310 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 2: Bruce Deigo's leave the convention, you know, in the final 311 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 2: sprint to the to election day. So I think it's 312 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 2: it's it's a high risk, would be a very high 313 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 2: risk thing for Democrats to try and do, but I 314 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 2: think they might. It's again, if things are that bad, 315 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 2: if Biden is that vulnerable, and the polling shows it. 316 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:31,080 Speaker 2: We just had a poll come out yesterday and again 317 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 2: long way from the election, but he's at he's at 318 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 2: thirty seven percent in Michigan thirty seven percent. He's losing 319 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 2: to Donald Trump. They're by eight points. He's losing to 320 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 2: Nicky Hayley by ten points. If that kind of if 321 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 2: they're getting that kind of polling in June or July, 322 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 2: and Biden has made it through the primary, which they've 323 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 2: kind of engineered, right, he's not debating anyone, he's not whatever, 324 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 2: they've they've rearranged the schedule, so he so he's basically 325 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 2: guaranteed the nomination. Then there will definitely be people who 326 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 2: are breaking the glass in case of emergency and reaching 327 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 2: for you know, reaching for the alarm. And and I 328 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if at that point they put Plan 329 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 2: B into effect. Yeah. 330 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 1: Well, and I think that's also part of why you know, 331 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: they're trying to remove him from the ballot as well 332 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 1: of you know, fire alarm. Right, we're worried about the 333 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: upcoming general election. How vulnerable is Joe Biden truly right now? 334 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 1: And how much does that matter being so far out 335 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 1: from the general election. 336 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 2: Well, he's definitely vulnerable, and he has I mean, there's 337 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,919 Speaker 2: no question. I mean, look, we run a lot of 338 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,199 Speaker 2: commentary on real Clare politics, on the front page every day, 339 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 2: and you've got folks who are saying some some Democrats 340 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 2: and progressives who are saying, look, it's not as bad 341 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 2: as people are making it out to be right, it's not, 342 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 2: you know, don't don't get so down. Biden's numbers are 343 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:56,400 Speaker 2: better than you think. And and but I think if 344 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,200 Speaker 2: you just kind of zoom back and you look at 345 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 2: historically speaking, where he stands forty percent job approval rating 346 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 2: in our real clear politics average, his all time low 347 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 2: is I think thirty seven, thirty eight, So he's he's 348 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 2: pretty darn low. And it's when you get into the 349 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 2: actual issues on inflation, it's you know, immigration, economy, jobs, 350 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:21,120 Speaker 2: he's below that. He's in the mid to high thirties. 351 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 2: So he's definitely vulnerable. And the question is, you know, 352 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 2: how does that translate. I mean, he was vulnerable. Listen. 353 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 2: In twenty twenty two, Biden went into the election with 354 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 2: in the Democrats by every metric that we historically use 355 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 2: to judge, you know, the strength of a candidacy. Right, 356 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 2: he had eight and a half percent inflation, unemployment was high, 357 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 2: gas prices were high, his job approval was low. The 358 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 2: generic congressional ballot favored Republicans. I mean, there were all 359 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 2: these signals that historically meant that the Democrats were going 360 00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 2: to suffer greatly, and they didn't. Right, So fast forward, 361 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,119 Speaker 2: now Joe Biden's name is on the ballot. It is 362 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,640 Speaker 2: going to be a decision. It's a choice between him 363 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 2: and the alternative, whoever that might be. But at the 364 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 2: same time, you know, will voters will they hold him 365 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:18,360 Speaker 2: responsible if they're unhappy with the economy, if they're unhappy 366 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 2: with the way the country's going Again, historically traditionally say yes. 367 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 2: But we live in such a sort of tribal environment 368 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 2: that maybe his he he might not be as vulnerable. 369 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,679 Speaker 2: He might have success, as you said, portraying you know, 370 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,199 Speaker 2: using sort of fear and portraying the other side, as 371 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 2: you know, the end of democracy and this terrible fascist 372 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 2: you know, movement that can't be let anywhere near the 373 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:47,679 Speaker 2: White House. So we'll have to wait and see how 374 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:49,639 Speaker 2: it plays out. But I mean, historically speaking, looking just 375 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 2: at the at the numbers, he's really really vulnerable at 376 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 2: this point, more vulnerable than any modern president heading into 377 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 2: reelection that we've seen in a long long time. 378 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 1: Well, and to your point about the midterms, I got 379 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: it wrong, right, because I was basing what I thought 380 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: would happen off of you know, previous historical examples. 381 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:08,840 Speaker 2: They don't seem to apply anymore. 382 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 1: And you know, one of the big things that has 383 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 1: changed in recent history politically is the way we vote 384 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 1: with mail in balloting. 385 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 2: So you know how much has that changed? 386 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:21,360 Speaker 1: Because I mean, you know, when I used to work 387 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: on campaigns, like you could turn a race around heading 388 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,400 Speaker 1: into election day, and you just can't do that when 389 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:30,679 Speaker 1: you have X amount of ballots that have already been 390 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: sent in and it's already baked in the cake. So 391 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,360 Speaker 1: the opportunities to change an election have really greatly changed 392 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: and diminished. So you know how much has mail in 393 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:44,360 Speaker 1: balloting just changed both the ability to apply previous norms 394 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 1: and just the way we even try to observe elections. 395 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's a great question, and I think 396 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 2: it has had an impact. I mean on a couple levels. 397 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 2: One is early voting, right, People are now voting three 398 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 2: four weeks ahead of time, so you get a lot 399 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 2: of those votes that you know, if something has happens 400 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,919 Speaker 2: in the final week of a race or something, you know, 401 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 2: it doesn't have nearly the impact that you used to, 402 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 2: because you know, anywhere from twenty to thirty or even 403 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,639 Speaker 2: forty percent of the vote has already been cast. So 404 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 2: there's that issue. But I think even more importantly to 405 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 2: your point, it is now it's it's again blue team, 406 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 2: red team, very tribal, and it's become not a persuasion game. 407 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 2: It's it's more of just a ballot pursuit game. Right, 408 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 2: how many ballots can you find? Can you harvest? Can 409 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 2: you get into the ballot boxes? And Democrats have done 410 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 2: a better job that quite frankly, and they used i 411 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:42,639 Speaker 2: think the rule changes that were took place in during 412 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:49,159 Speaker 2: COVID drop boxes and you know, mailing out ballots to 413 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,680 Speaker 2: everybody in who's on the you know, on the registration list, 414 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 2: those kinds of things, ballot harvesting. They did a much 415 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 2: better job at that than Republicans did, certainly in twenty 416 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 2: twenty and even more so in twenty twenty two. And 417 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 2: the question is will Republicans you know, be as focused 418 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 2: and be able to have some sort of parody with that. 419 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 2: And if they're able to do that, I think they'll 420 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 2: be okay in twenty twenty four, but if they're not, 421 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 2: it could be a rerun where you know, again you 422 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 2: look at the Biden's approval rating in Georgia, for example, 423 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two, in all these battleground states he 424 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,360 Speaker 2: was in the he was below forty percent and so 425 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 2: which you know, you would have thought would doom any 426 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 2: of those candidates that were running as Democrats. But the 427 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 2: Democrats did a better job of boring money and resources 428 00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 2: in to get out the vote efforts in those eight 429 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 2: states or six states or whatever there were, and managed 430 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 2: to stave up I mean, they had some help, right 431 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 2: with some antidate quality issues on the Republican side in 432 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 2: some of these states. But even in a place like 433 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,640 Speaker 2: Pennsylvania where you know, by all accounts, you know, Fetterman 434 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 2: was was a guy who who had real issues and 435 00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 2: Oz was seen as sort of the you know, a 436 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 2: moderate candidate. You know, Oz lost and it wasn't even 437 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 2: that close, quite honestly. So, yeah, it's it's gonna be. 438 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,680 Speaker 2: That is part and parcel of what our elections are 439 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 2: these days. And Republicans have to they have to learn 440 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,440 Speaker 2: how to play the game because up until now they've 441 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 2: been you know, I mean, Trump even in twenty twenty 442 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 2: was like don't don't mail that ballot in. You know, 443 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 2: you don't know what's going to happen to that, right. 444 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,439 Speaker 2: He put a lot of fear into people about mailing 445 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 2: in ballots show up on election day, and then on 446 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 2: election day comes and and you know you have whether 447 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 2: in some places and other places you have you know, 448 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 2: in Arizona, for example, you've got malfunctions of machines and 449 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 2: whatnot happening. I think Republicans have completely changed their thinking 450 00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 2: about that, and the question is we'll see whether whether 451 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,639 Speaker 2: they've been able to actually, you know, implement some of 452 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:06,360 Speaker 2: those policies that would bear fruit. In twenty twenty. 453 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:12,639 Speaker 1: Four quick break more with Tom Bevan of Real Clear Politics. Well, 454 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 1: you know you had mentioned the fetterman Oz debate, and 455 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 1: you know, by the time that had happened, I think 456 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 1: you had almost half of mail and ballots had already 457 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 1: been sent in. So it's like, you know, you've got 458 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 1: a debate where the guy says good night before it starts, 459 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: and you know those votes have already been cast. So 460 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,920 Speaker 1: you know again that that debate then has less significance 461 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: because it doesn't really you know, have the ability to 462 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 1: turn things around to the extent that it could. In 463 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,879 Speaker 1: previous elections. How difficult has this all made it? You know, 464 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 1: obviously everyone looks through the real clear politics averages and 465 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:43,959 Speaker 1: you know, as an aggregate, and you know, looking at 466 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 1: where things stand in races, how tough has that made polling? 467 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:51,480 Speaker 1: Sort of these more modern dynamics, and you know how 468 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 1: difficult is pulling these days? How trustworthy is it? And 469 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,160 Speaker 1: sort of what do you look now when you're looking 470 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 1: at some of these polls. 471 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 2: Well, those are big questions. So one of the things 472 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 2: we're the guy you can answer. I know, yeah, no, 473 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 2: I appreciate. So one of the things that we we 474 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 2: just started our own podcast focused specifically on polling. It's 475 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 2: called RCP Pole Position and and so we're having on 476 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 2: all of the top polsters from around the country, Republican, Democrat, 477 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 2: you know, in between to talk about polling in sort 478 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 2: of not get two in the weeds, but to make 479 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 2: it accessible to to lay people and ask the sort 480 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 2: of questions I get asked these questions all the time, 481 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,239 Speaker 2: and so I'm you know, asking uh. And we just 482 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 2: we just released an episode earlier this week with Professor 483 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,560 Speaker 2: Charles Franklin. He runs its director Pulling at the Marquette 484 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:43,679 Speaker 2: University law school right, which is one of the you know, 485 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 2: premier polls in the state of Wisconsin. And we talked 486 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,400 Speaker 2: to him about Iowa and then and then in particular 487 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 2: about how difficult it is to poll in Wisconsin. We've 488 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,160 Speaker 2: had some big misses there in the last few cycles, 489 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 2: more so than any of these other Upper Midwestern states. 490 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 2: And we ask him sort of why is that, and 491 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:03,639 Speaker 2: and so, yeah, it is it. Look, it's been a 492 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:09,919 Speaker 2: challenging time for polsters as they as they've tried to 493 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 2: a I think, you know, stay up to date with technology. 494 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,719 Speaker 2: A lot of polsters are using where they used to 495 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 2: just use you know, random dial where they you know, 496 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 2: get a list of phone numbers and randomly dial people 497 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 2: and ask them questions, are now doing multimodo polls, which 498 00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 2: means they so they're dialing some some landlines, they're dialing 499 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 2: some cell phones, they're texting some people, they're doing some 500 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 2: online stuff, and they're combining all of those different modes 501 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 2: into their sample so that they're trying to do that 502 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,400 Speaker 2: so they can reach older people who still have landlines, 503 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,399 Speaker 2: younger people who only have you know, cell phones and 504 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 2: maybe only would respond to a text, and then trying 505 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 2: to use that data and fashion, it's still at the 506 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,880 Speaker 2: end of the day, once you've done your calls right, 507 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 2: once you have your sample, the trick is to estimate 508 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 2: who's going to turn up on election day. What is 509 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,399 Speaker 2: the electric going to look like on election day? How 510 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 2: many African Americans, how many eighteen to thirty four year olds, 511 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,640 Speaker 2: how many sixty five plus ers, you know, that kind 512 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,159 Speaker 2: of thing. And they do that based on, you know, 513 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 2: past elections, what happened in the past presidential cycles in 514 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 2: these states or nationally. And I think one of the 515 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 2: tricky things that posters have been dealing with, particularly in 516 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 2: when Trump has been on the ballot in twenty sixteen, 517 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:34,120 Speaker 2: twenty twenty, and maybe even again this year, is that 518 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 2: Trump you know, well, a he motivates the opposite side, 519 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:42,439 Speaker 2: but he also brings a lot of people who haven't 520 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 2: been part haven't voted in past elections. Right. These are 521 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 2: disgruntled people or people who have been a political They 522 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:54,120 Speaker 2: come out and they vote. And so certainly that's been 523 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 2: an issue because those are the kind of people that posters, 524 00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 2: you know, they're petrified at, because you can't really wantify 525 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 2: who they are vote when they're going to show up. Yeah, 526 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,560 Speaker 2: they're not captured by the traditional methods. So that's been 527 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 2: one of the biggest challenges. The other thing is we've 528 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 2: seen this real and it's been exacerbated in the last 529 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 2: couple of cycles. Is this growing sort of rural urban 530 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 2: divide right where you know, again go back to the 531 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,040 Speaker 2: example in Wisconsin, you had some of these folks who 532 00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 2: live in rural communities. They voted for Obama in eight 533 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:32,800 Speaker 2: or maybe or twelve or both, and then switched to Trump. 534 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 2: And meanwhile, you've had, you know, shift in the suburbs 535 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 2: of folks who used to vote sort of you know, 536 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:42,840 Speaker 2: like squishy soft moderate Republicans who have been sort of 537 00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 2: moved away from Trump and turned and have been voting Democrats. 538 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 2: So there have been some real shifts in the electorate 539 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 2: over the last few cycles, and I think polsters have 540 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 2: have some have done better than others in adjusting to 541 00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:03,240 Speaker 2: those changes. And again, you know, the polling in eighteen 542 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 2: and twenty two is actually pretty good, so it seems 543 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,719 Speaker 2: to be kind of unique to Donald Trump and how 544 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 2: he sort of scrambles the traditional equation when he's on 545 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 2: the ballot. Interesting. Tom, this has been really interesting. 546 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 1: I'd love to have you back on as we kind 547 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 1: of move forward in twenty twenty four. I'm doing my 548 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 1: best to not make the mistakes of the best, so 549 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 1: I'm not going to be really careful trying to call anything. 550 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 1: I feel a little still burnt from the midterms, so 551 00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 1: I've got to dealing with some third degree burns. So 552 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 1: I appreciate you coming on the show and breaking this 553 00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: all down for us. 554 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 2: Absolutely so great to be with you. 555 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,040 Speaker 1: That was Tom Bevin, co founder and president of Real 556 00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 1: Clear Politics, with some really interesting analysis. I really just 557 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 1: wanted to have someone on give it to us straight, 558 00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,000 Speaker 1: so hopefully he can come back on the show and 559 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 1: you know, keep us updated. I want to thank you 560 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 1: guys at home for listening every Monday and Thursday, but 561 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 1: you can listen throughout the week. I want to thank 562 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 1: John Cassio, my producer, for putting the show together. 563 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 2: Until next time.