1 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:14,320 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the ad Loots Podcast. 2 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe, So Joe. Clearly, one 3 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: of the top news stories, probably the top news story 4 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:26,799 Speaker 1: at the moment, is the situation in Afghanistan and the very, 5 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: very swift change in the direction of events there. So, 6 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 1: just a week ago, things were I guess, I want 7 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 1: to say, relatively normal. Obviously, the Taliban had advanced throughout 8 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: the country, but Cappal was still operating on a fairly 9 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:48,879 Speaker 1: normal basis. And then fast forward just seven days or so, 10 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: we're recording this on August, everything has changed. I think 11 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: it was last Saturday or last Sunday. I'm sort of 12 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: losing track of the days. There was clearly a very 13 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: rapid advance of the Taliban, but then there was some 14 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:07,040 Speaker 1: questions like, oh, how many days or weeks will there 15 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: be a pressure on Cobbo, And then it seemed to 16 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 1: happen in basically an instance. So clearly there are a 17 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 1: lot of questions swirling around the situation in Afghanistan right now. 18 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: But given that this is all thoughts, we're going to 19 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: focus on one question in particular, which is what exactly 20 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: happens to the Afghani economy, and we have the perfect 21 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: person to talk about it. We're going to be speaking 22 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:36,319 Speaker 1: with Ajmal Ahmadi, who has been the central Banker in 23 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 1: Afghanistan since the middle of last year. Before that, he 24 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: was the Minister of Commerce and Industry. He has left 25 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: the country under very very chaotic circumstances, but he's been 26 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: very gracious in his time and agreed to come on 27 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: odd lots. So Jemal, thank you so much for joining 28 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: the show. Thank you very much for happening. So, I 29 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: guess my first question asked to be what was your 30 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 1: experience like of actually getting out of the country, Because 31 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: the scenes that we saw in capital over the weekend, 32 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 1: people desperately trying to get to the airport and leave 33 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 1: on a very limited number of planes were very very upsetting, 34 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 1: um and and disturbing and memorable as well. So how 35 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: did you manage to get out? Well? Thank thank you 36 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 1: again for having me. On the day of the fall, 37 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: which was last Sunday, I was in my office um 38 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 1: conducting work. Obviously, the situation was rapidly deteriorating, and so 39 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: as new information came in, we found out that Pulcha 40 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: heat prisoned, which is just slightly west of Cobble had fallen, 41 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: and that the reports that til then had entered the city. 42 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 1: At that point, I decided to go for the airport. UM. 43 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 1: I didn't have a ticket for that day, but I 44 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: thought it perhaps would be the safest place to go 45 00:02:56,000 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: to be, and so we we drove there. UM. The 46 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 1: airport road, which which now you can see on CNN 47 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: was was crowded, but yet had not become as chaotic 48 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: as you've seen now. We were able to make it 49 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: in and UM. What I attempted to do was trying 50 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: to find a ticket for that evening, and I was 51 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: able to secure a ticket for that evening on a 52 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 1: flight which subsequently was canceled. It's plane that you see 53 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 1: on the tarmac. Everyone was trying to scramble upon we 54 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: went on that flight. UM, but I think around four 55 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 1: pm we received the notice that the president himself had 56 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 1: already left. And at that point I think I kind 57 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 1: of instinctively knew that chaos would would would begin at 58 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 1: that point, so everyone tried to fight on the plane. 59 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: I gone on the plane for a little while but 60 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: realized it wasn't leaving. UM at which point when on 61 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: the tarmac and there are already hundreds of people there. 62 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: It was. It was a bit of a surreal scene 63 00:03:56,640 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: where helicopters were taking off, a mill terry plane was 64 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: taking off. I think anyone who had access to any 65 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: type of aircraft were just scrambling to jump on a plane. 66 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: There was one military plane not from the US, from 67 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: a third country, and people were scrambling to to get 68 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 1: on board. That is it was. I think I believe 69 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 1: it's called a C seven team where the back comes 70 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: down and up, and that was going up. And my 71 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 1: friends helped me push me on that plane. Uh, And 72 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: they were evacuating their own embassy staff, So I was 73 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: not supposed to be on that plane, but I think 74 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,679 Speaker 1: they felt that they probably believe that I was embassy staff, 75 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: and they let me on that plane. And I'm very 76 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 1: fortunate to get out. Wow. Incredible. You know, you you've 77 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 1: been tweeting these pretty these threads about the sort of 78 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 1: the situation right now and including the last several days, 79 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 1: given the intensity of the moment and the chaos in general. Uh, 80 00:04:56,440 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: there's you know, they're incredibly lucid and clear and helpful. 81 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 1: Can you talk about those few days earlier? Look, what 82 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 1: was your expectation you're running the central bank, and we'll 83 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 1: get into what management of the central bank looks like. 84 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 1: But obviously it was sort of a split second decision. 85 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,600 Speaker 1: It sounds like to actually get to the airport and leave. 86 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: Where was your head at say three or four days earlier, 87 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 1: as you're thinking about, Okay, there's this rapid advance of 88 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: the Taliban, but your job is to keep the banking 89 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: system running. I think I'm still trying to run the 90 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: bank in a normal, everyday fashion while trying to mitigate risks. 91 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: So it was Thursday that a number of important, very 92 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: important provincial centers fell, including Kandahar, Herat Umlus maybe Logo 93 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: fell on the same day, and at that point I 94 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:55,039 Speaker 1: called some people I don't want to name, but I 95 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: called some people in to have some discussions as to 96 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 1: what our plans should be. And I think one we 97 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 1: worried about our staff. We have had some staff killed 98 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: in loc Are, so worried about what we do with staff, 99 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: if we need to bring them into the capital, if 100 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: the banks and the Central Bank would continue to operate 101 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: in telign health areas. I think secondly, yeah, so I 102 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: think the second was the in terms of operations what 103 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 1: will we do? Uh? And then third sort of risk 104 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: mitigation at the center. So as we saw the situation deteriorate, 105 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 1: else did we need to think about it do to 106 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: take care of staff operations and contingency plans? So would 107 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: the central bank operate or continue operating in Taliban controlled areas? 108 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: Or I guess maybe it would be good if you 109 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: talked a little bit about what the central bank does 110 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: in a normal situation versus what ended up happening over 111 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: the past a couple of months or so. Sure, so 112 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,239 Speaker 1: the central bank is I think, as in any country, 113 00:06:56,560 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 1: the core mandate here is inflation to make sure that 114 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 1: inflation doesn't rise. And we provide a banking services to 115 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: two commercial banks. So I'd say those are the key 116 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 1: operations that in a day to day environment typically move forward. 117 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: And during the last week or last month even we 118 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: began to focus more on provincial activities. We have provincial 119 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: activities to a bank branch, central bank branch, and every 120 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: single province of Afghanistan. And you know, we we came 121 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: up with a color coded map where we would see 122 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: the risk to a certain province. We would rate it 123 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 1: based on risks and then you know, in terms of 124 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: cash management, bringing cash in from the province or sending 125 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: it out, we would we would manage it based on 126 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: the risk seen in that province. Um if a province 127 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: was expected to fall, we would try to bring in 128 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 1: all the cash to the center. I think here we 129 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 1: were worried about dollars because we get supplied internationally and 130 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 1: so that was a key concern of our international partners. 131 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: So a place where the talentman came close to make 132 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 1: sure that we withdrew dollars and try to repatriate most 133 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: of the Afghanians as well. In terms of the banking sector, 134 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: the decision we came to was that we did not 135 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: allow banks so you utilize dollars in the provinces where 136 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: Taliban were operating. But we left it up to the 137 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 1: banks themselves whether they wanted to operate using Afghanis based 138 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: on their own risk plans and contingency plants. Can you 139 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: just describe a little bit about what the how the 140 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 1: currencies are used, So obviously the dollar is important, to 141 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: what degree is activity dollarized? What is the role of 142 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: the Afghani the currency and what degree? To what degree 143 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,839 Speaker 1: did you see your job is to achieve the inflation 144 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 1: goals by maintaining a stable relationship between the two mm hmm. 145 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: So Afghanistan is a heavily dollarized economy, about se maybe 146 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: six the five of all deposits are maintained in dollars samply. 147 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: We run a very large current account deficit, which means 148 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: that we have to be supplied with dollars from our 149 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: own national partners, and so the dollar plays a very 150 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: important role UM in the Afghan context. The Afghani is 151 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: utilized on a day to day basis for for most transactions, 152 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: and there's a significant pass through inflation where we have 153 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 1: an inflation targeting mandate. But I think the key thing, 154 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: although we don't target a specific currency rate, is that 155 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:37,679 Speaker 1: we worry about the currency because there's a high inflation 156 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 1: passed through. So during this period, we were even as 157 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: provinces were falling, we were able to maintain Afghan year 158 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 1: around between seventy eight one to the dollar, which which 159 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 1: was a success in might view UM and inflation remained 160 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: within the single digits. Yeah. I think during your tenure 161 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: most people recognize your success on that front. So single 162 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 1: digit inflation and also effects appreciation of only about five 163 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 1: percent or so UM, which is pretty amazing in the 164 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:13,439 Speaker 1: context of the situation. Now, now you mentioned the current 165 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: account deficit, and here I kind of have to ask, 166 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 1: maybe a sensitive question, but what role does opium play 167 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: in the economy? Because I cannot imagine that drug proceeds 168 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: show up as exports in the current account, and yet 169 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:33,320 Speaker 1: most people would say that they are an important, although 170 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: not necessarily desirable part of the economy. So I think 171 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 1: they finance a portion of the current account deficit. Um. 172 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: If you take a look at opium um, I think 173 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: I believe the US The recent UNODC reports states for 174 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: this are about two hundred thousand hectors of opium being produced. 175 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 1: Each hector produces about twenty sevens and the prices about 176 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: two hundreds. When multiply all this together, it ends up 177 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:05,559 Speaker 1: being roughly about a billion dollars in farm gate receipts. 178 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: And when you take a look at our current account deficit, 179 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: the current account deficit x AID because it is including it, 180 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 1: but x AD, so the trade deficit we can say 181 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: is roughly around six billion dollars seven billion dollars. Of 182 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: the seven billion dollars we auction off or provide liliquity, 183 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: around two and a half billion or three billions. So 184 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: there is a significant part of the current account deficit 185 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 1: which is also being financed through other means, but there's 186 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: obviously a portion that's probably being financed through opium receipts, 187 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 1: although we don't have formal data on receipts. Now. One 188 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: thing I'm interested in in terms of your perspective at 189 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 1: the Central Bank is, I know Afghanistan is not a 190 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: heavily banked country and the sort of does it Actually 191 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: was reading a Bloomberg article today about you know, there's 192 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: the informal money changers and that is a big part 193 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: of how people do day to day finance, not through 194 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: a formal banking system. To what degree does that complicate 195 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,439 Speaker 1: the job of the central bank. That's so much activity 196 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: or day to day activity is just not through the 197 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: sort of traditional regulated identities. So what we call them 198 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: sarah fas. Sara fas play a large role in terms 199 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 1: of um even even accepting deposit services for individual Afghans 200 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 1: or transferring money. They've been They've been it forever and 201 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: so they were able to operate and money even now. 202 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: If someone if I wanted to send money to a 203 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 1: certain province, I would call a Sarafan and he would 204 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: be able to send that money immediately there. So they 205 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: do play a key role. I think over the past year, 206 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: what we tried to do was corporate tize them so 207 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 1: they had individual licenses. We went through this process where 208 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: we provide them corporate licenses so they could be more 209 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: normally regulated. They protect proticting what we have a dollar option, 210 00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 1: so we provide liquidity to the market and they a 211 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: very important role in terms of money transfers throughout the country. 212 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: And I think the reason is is what we're seeing 213 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: today is the financial inclusion or banking coverages around twelve 214 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 1: percent in Afghanistan, and so of people realize informal money 215 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: exchangers to be able to send money throughout the country. 216 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 1: I'd make one last point here is that the Central 217 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:26,599 Speaker 1: Bank actually made significant progress and you wouldn't believe it. 218 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 1: In Afghanistan. We digitalized all the payment streams, so we 219 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 1: connected all the banks, all of the telecom companies to 220 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 1: the central Bank, and we launched just this last month 221 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 1: a new service through which a person could send money 222 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 1: using a short code start two four six and you 223 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 1: could check your balance and you could send money anywhere 224 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 1: in Afghanistan, and we were expecting to create a bank 225 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 1: account for everyone in Afghanistan through that mechanism. Of course, 226 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 1: um I didn't move forward. What's your impression of how 227 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 1: the Taliban has been financing itself. So there's obviously a 228 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 1: lot of speculation about illegal activities UM, such as opium money, UM, 229 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 1: possibly donations from entities abroad. But I think a lot 230 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: of people don't necessarily appreciate that the Taliban was already 231 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: extorting a lot of money from people in the provinces, 232 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: basically a form of taxation. I think there was a 233 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: u N report from last year that said the Taliban 234 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 1: was collecting as much as one point five billion dollars, 235 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 1: which is something like a quarter of the official budget 236 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: of Afghanistan. But I'd be curious to get your views 237 00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: on this. Where was the money actually coming from. I 238 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: think you could say from from a few different sources. 239 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 1: One is through opium receipts, so they would tax opium 240 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: production to the farmers and receive a certain amount of tax, 241 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: and I think that was quite well known. I think secondly, 242 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: in the mining sector, there's significant areas that were controlled 243 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: by the Taliban and they were able to tax mining 244 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 1: production as well. A third, it was relatively well known, 245 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: but even transport or transit through Afghanistan was being taxed 246 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: by the Taliban. Typically a trucker would come, they pay 247 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: at the customs facility, and then especially at the last 248 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: year's situation deteriorated Taliban checkpoint and they would pay them. 249 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 1: I can't remember the exact amount, but it was actually 250 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 1: well known, maybe thirty thousand apps per truck to go through. 251 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: And so they were they were taxing people um even 252 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 1: prior to this past week, and then of course the 253 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 1: international donations that flowed to them as well. I'm actually 254 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: cure is about official taxation, infrastructure, and of course efficacy 255 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: of taxing. Of taxation is something that varies pretty greatly 256 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 1: across the country to what or across countries. Can you 257 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: talk through a little bit about how the government of 258 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 1: Afghanistan pre Taliban engaged in tax collection and how tax 259 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 1: revenues matched up with revenue goals we collected if I 260 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 1: remember correctly, roughly our target crisis was roughly around two 261 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: billion apps, so let's call that about two point seven 262 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 1: billion dollars of domestic generation and UM. Most of the 263 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 1: revenue would come from either tax receipts, so businessmen and 264 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: individuals who are taxed or through customs, and so I 265 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: believe the split was perhaps, you know, maybe let's say 266 00:16:54,320 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: forty taxes customs and then other one type revenues as well. 267 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 1: So why don't we forward a little bit too, um, 268 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: current or recent events, because I have so many questions 269 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 1: about what has been going on and how you see 270 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: things unfolding in the future. Um. But you know, Joe 271 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: asked you about the importance of dollarization in the economy, 272 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 1: and one of the things that you wrote on Twitter 273 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 1: was that on Friday August you had received a call 274 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: saying that Afghanistan wouldn't be receiving dollarshipments due from the 275 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 1: I m F. So I guess I'm curious. You know 276 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,679 Speaker 1: who made the call, what was their reasoning, what was 277 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: your response, and how big a deal was that? From 278 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:48,359 Speaker 1: your perspective, it was a very very big deal. So, 279 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 1: as I mentioned on Thursday, a number of provincial capital 280 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 1: still and I thought that was a bad situation, and 281 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,199 Speaker 1: that on Friday morning we received a call that an 282 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: expected shipment which was which was due to arrive on Sunday, 283 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: it would be canceled at this stage, we're still thinking 284 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: even medium term. We're not thinking that the government will 285 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: fall on Sunday. And so I met with some people 286 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 1: and we thought through various strategies of how we would 287 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 1: deal with the situation without dollar influence. Remember that we 288 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: have a very large amount of international reserves, the nine 289 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:29,680 Speaker 1: billion that I've stated, and so by any typical metric, 290 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 1: that's a large amount. So when you look at import 291 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,400 Speaker 1: coverage ratio, it's more than fourteen months. If you take 292 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: a look at, you know, percentage of external debt, it's 293 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,639 Speaker 1: it's a very large amount. So we had the sufficient resources, 294 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: but again we were depending on physical shipments to arrive 295 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: so that we can supply the market. So with without 296 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 1: that shipment, it was quite surprising. I was taken aback 297 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 1: that it was a one off decision, or it wasn't 298 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: even a process through which they said they would send less. 299 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 1: It was just a complete stoppage, which was very worry 300 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,439 Speaker 1: and so we thought through various scenarios. How could we 301 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: manage this, what would we be doing, How could we 302 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 1: go through the next week without with the amount of 303 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 1: dollars we had. So we ran through various scenarios. But 304 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 1: I think at the end. Our international partners had good 305 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 1: intelligence because they know the shipment was planning come on 306 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: Sunday and they said, no, that's when couples fell. Can 307 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: you explain further why is why we're physical shipments so 308 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 1: important as opposed to I mean you talk about okay, 309 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: you had improved the digitization of the banking system during 310 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: your tenure. Why are physical dollars such an important aspect 311 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,000 Speaker 1: of bank management? And also do you have any idea 312 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:51,840 Speaker 1: who who actually made that call to say Okay, no, no, 313 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:55,439 Speaker 1: no dollars shipments this weekend? I do, I'd rather not 314 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: say just to not cause any UM looks say political 315 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:03,679 Speaker 1: issue use on either end. UM, but I think that 316 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 1: the reason that they're so vital again is because we're 317 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,640 Speaker 1: importing economy and so we get all of this coming 318 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: in through UM. We have a large current up deficits, 319 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:17,919 Speaker 1: so we need cash going out and UM A significant 320 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: portion of that was cash based transaction. It wasn't all 321 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:26,879 Speaker 1: based on digital payments or providing for LC's to another 322 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: country UM, and I think that was something that we 323 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 1: began to develop, but we were still reliant on the 324 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: physical fund as well. So given that the Taliban remains 325 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 1: on international sanctions lists. It seems very, very unlikely that 326 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 1: the I m F is going to resume those dollar shipments. 327 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: And I think most people are talking about a scenario 328 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 1: where Afghanistan is basically cut off from dollar funding or 329 00:20:56,359 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 1: placed on additional sanctions lists, things like that, And I 330 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 1: guess I'm curious, how do you feel about economic tools 331 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:10,120 Speaker 1: such as sanctions being used against the regime. I mean, 332 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,719 Speaker 1: the classic criticism of sanctions is that they end up 333 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 1: hurting the wider population while not necessarily doing very much 334 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: to actually impact the ruling class or elite, who are 335 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: still able to extort money in various ways. So do 336 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 1: you think sanctions or withholding the reserves is going to 337 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: be effective against the Taliban? And are they ethical in 338 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 1: the current situation. It's a tough question either way. I 339 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 1: think both are correct. In the one hand, they do 340 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 1: limit the resources to a government. On the other hand, 341 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: they do hurt so I think both are right. On 342 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,880 Speaker 1: the one hand, you know, there's nine billion dollars in 343 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 1: international reserves and I outlined where they are, and you 344 00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 1: know in treasuries and gold and other assets that you 345 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,399 Speaker 1: would have spect And I think I think given the 346 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 1: current environment where I think the US has expressed many 347 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 1: times that they would have preferred to negotiated, negotiated settlement, 348 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 1: and um, they're worried about women's rights and free me 349 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: and a number of other aspects of governance from the Taliban. 350 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,159 Speaker 1: I think it would be tough for, for example, the 351 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,959 Speaker 1: Treasury to say, you know, here's nine billion dollars. And 352 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 1: I think that would just raise a lot of questions 353 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 1: from Congress, from DA from human rights groups, so that 354 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: there would be they replaced in a difficult situation, I 355 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 1: would expect. I'm not in that side, but that would 356 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: be my reading of the situation. But yes, on the 357 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 1: other hand, not providing dollars will cause significant economic partnership. Um, 358 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 1: and we've seen that in other countries where sanctions have 359 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,119 Speaker 1: been applicked. You one of your tweets, you know again, 360 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: it sort of had this, Uh, some of your tweets 361 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 1: have a very dry humor about them. But you said 362 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,160 Speaker 1: that certain Taliban members have been asking about the location 363 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 1: of the reserves, and your comment was they need to 364 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 1: hire an economist. And so which does raise the question 365 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 1: of what options do they does the does the Taliban 366 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: have and what would an economist tell them? And you know, okay, 367 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,919 Speaker 1: presuming as you surmise, there's not going to be that 368 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,680 Speaker 1: nine billion dollars unlocked. I think you said maybe they 369 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 1: only have actual access to maybe point one or point 370 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: two percent of the total reserve, so virtually none. What 371 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 1: do you expect to happen and what would be I 372 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:41,919 Speaker 1: guess sound economic management under the under those extreme conditions, 373 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 1: I think the impact if access isn't received, it's going 374 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,360 Speaker 1: from you know, reserves of a country which has nine 375 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 1: billion dollars in reserves and sixteen months in port ratio 376 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,440 Speaker 1: to a situation where they have a few million dollars 377 00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 1: and two days or converagration. And so that's obviously a 378 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 1: very different situation. The dollars can't be supplied, the banks 379 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 1: can provide receipts to their customers and asks. Obviously the 380 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 1: flow of apps is going to increase, the bid or 381 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 1: demanders is going to increase, and so we're likely going 382 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: to see the depreciation of the currency over a time period, 383 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 1: probably a spike and then a continued depreciation. Again, because 384 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:32,399 Speaker 1: Afghanistan has very large current account deficit, the inflation passed 385 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 1: through is quite high, so you're gonna see that knock 386 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,159 Speaker 1: on effect on on all goods, the price of all 387 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:42,040 Speaker 1: goods going being increased, and I think physics, I think 388 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,359 Speaker 1: we started this on Saturday, we introduce some limits on 389 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: the monet withdrawals, but I think they're going to have 390 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 1: to bring those limits significantly lower um and so again 391 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:54,120 Speaker 1: that's going to cause the situation where you were already 392 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 1: facing a triple shock, You're you're gonna you're gonna create 393 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:03,040 Speaker 1: much more economic hardships. Remember Afghanistan, Most countries around the world, 394 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 1: they're facing a challenging to deal with COVID, but Afghanistan, 395 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 1: we had a regional drought that wasn't very much talked about, 396 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:12,680 Speaker 1: but that's significantly impact. And we had internally displaced people 397 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 1: just because of the drought. Then we had the conflict 398 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,880 Speaker 1: and the fighting, and now add on top of it, 399 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 1: what what what potentially could be a economic type of crisis. 400 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:26,399 Speaker 1: So it's a really challenging situation. We were trying to 401 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 1: manage three shocks, and now I think they're gonna have 402 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,439 Speaker 1: to do with the fourth, which is challenging. So what 403 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 1: could they potentially do in that scenario. I think the 404 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: the response is, you know, just taking a typical macro 405 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 1: response is one. The revenues have significantly declined, um so, 406 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,880 Speaker 1: so again it's the stuff that's come down, but also 407 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:51,120 Speaker 1: the flows, right, the donor influence with significant decline, and 408 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 1: so you're gonna have to scale back you're spending significantly, 409 00:25:55,680 --> 00:26:03,479 Speaker 1: so donor programs or social spending or those three thousand 410 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,399 Speaker 1: military that were there, teachers that were there, That civil 411 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 1: service is going to have to come down, and of 412 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 1: course again that's going to cause hardship in such a climate. 413 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,239 Speaker 1: I think secondly, uh, they're gonna have to put some 414 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 1: level of capital controls or limits on on withdrawals from 415 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,160 Speaker 1: the banking sector. They're gonna have to find additional revenue 416 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 1: sources or wherever that maybe they'll probably try to go 417 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 1: out to other countries to replace the US and maybe China, 418 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: Pakistan or other regional countries to find some sources of finance. 419 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,480 Speaker 1: But it's a tough situation. If people think that getting 420 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 1: everyone out of the airport is going to resolve this, 421 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,439 Speaker 1: I think the economic impact and human impact is going 422 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,919 Speaker 1: to continue for a long time. So Joe actually touched 423 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 1: on this when he mentioned your tweet where you said 424 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,600 Speaker 1: maybe the Taliban needs to get an economist. But what's 425 00:26:54,600 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 1: your impression of their understanding or views of finance and 426 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,439 Speaker 1: how the economy works and what role something like a 427 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 1: central bank should play in it, and do their views 428 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 1: differ from I guess traditional conceptions of monetary policy. Well, 429 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 1: you know, I think that's one of the things that 430 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:22,040 Speaker 1: was never um pushed by anyone, which is they simply 431 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,440 Speaker 1: always had one response, which is we want Islamic formal governance. 432 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 1: But they never once talked about what their their social 433 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 1: policy will be, what their economic policy, their macroeconomic stances, 434 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 1: those types of questions were never asked and never considered, 435 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,520 Speaker 1: and so it's really difficult to know what their response 436 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:45,040 Speaker 1: will be. UM. I can say that in the provinces 437 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 1: where they took over, as they were taking over certain provinces, 438 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 1: that they went to some banks and said, you know, 439 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 1: stop paying interest, stop lending or obtaining interests. So I 440 00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:02,960 Speaker 1: think that portion would be probably implemented, probably one aspect 441 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 1: financial policy. But beyond that, I'm I've never heard of, 442 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,719 Speaker 1: you know, many economists on their team. I'm sure they 443 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 1: can identify it, or they have foreign backers, and I'm 444 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 1: sure they will introduce them to some but anyone you 445 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,880 Speaker 1: put in that position is going to be facing circumstances. 446 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 1: Could you see yourself ever going back to Afghanistan? There 447 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:29,960 Speaker 1: is the president who fled, had said and he's reported 448 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 1: to be in the U a E. Or I think 449 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 1: he said he's in the UA that he would like 450 00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 1: to return at some point. Could you see yourself if 451 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 1: you were to return going back? Or are you done? 452 00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 1: I have now spent um eight years working for the 453 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 1: government of Afghanistan, seven years in this term, and I 454 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 1: worked in Ministry of Finance back in two thousand four 455 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:56,760 Speaker 1: and five. Oh I was the Economic Advisor, I was 456 00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 1: Ministry of Industry and Commerce and now Central Bank governor. 457 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 1: And I think in any scenario, m eight years of 458 00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:08,920 Speaker 1: government services a long time. Given this change, I can't 459 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 1: see myself, not only for the Taliban themselves, but you know, 460 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,640 Speaker 1: when you implement reforms in a number of these places 461 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 1: we talked about Saraf or other people. I made a 462 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 1: lot of enemies, and to be honest, during a transition phase, 463 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 1: one fears what is the Taliban's view going to be 464 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 1: of me? The other fear is uh, you know, during 465 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,719 Speaker 1: a chaotic transition period, someone just says, hey, this person 466 00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 1: did X, Y and Z and you know, who's gonna 467 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: who's gonna follow up and see if it's true. At 468 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 1: that stage, they'll just take a decision, and so um 469 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 1: I think not. I'll tell you it's heartbreaking, not only 470 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 1: for me, but for so many people. In two thousand fifteen, 471 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 1: when we came there's a new government. There were so 472 00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 1: many people, young people who were coming back to Afghanistan, 473 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 1: who were implementing reforms, who were spending days and nights 474 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,760 Speaker 1: as you would expect civil servants anywhere, and people who 475 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:13,160 Speaker 1: were giving their heart to to implement reforms. And what 476 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 1: we're all heartbroken. I mean, that's it's the human impact. 477 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 1: It's just you know, I have women employees that worked 478 00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: for me and now they're just saying, you know, what 479 00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 1: what are we doing? You know, because they were going 480 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,600 Speaker 1: to school, they were they were working. Uh, the environment 481 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,440 Speaker 1: is you know, quite normal. And then in a span 482 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 1: of a few days, and you can't imagine how quickly 483 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:39,520 Speaker 1: this this transpired. I mean, it was that quick. I 484 00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 1: was fortunate to make it, but most were not. And 485 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 1: so now they're they're living in this environment where there's 486 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 1: a lot of here. Again, right now the world's attention 487 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 1: is on Afghanistan. Again, but in two months, it probably 488 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,480 Speaker 1: won't be what's going to happen and whether it bre 489 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 1: be repercussions for actions they take at that time. And 490 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,680 Speaker 1: I don't think anyone's convinced. So this is something that 491 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 1: I actually wanted to ask you. So the Taliban has 492 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 1: been on something of a pr offensive and they're suggesting 493 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 1: that they've changed or evolved over the years. What's your 494 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 1: impression of that strategy, and more importantly, should the international 495 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:26,080 Speaker 1: community believe them? I always say I view people's actions, 496 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:31,720 Speaker 1: not their words. And the Taliban have been involved in 497 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 1: a negotiation process which excluded the government of Afghan and 498 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:41,960 Speaker 1: I think most people that you will talk to have 499 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,560 Speaker 1: are very upset at the Afghan government, but also the 500 00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 1: US government in particular how Isa who negotiated this flawed deal. 501 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:56,840 Speaker 1: And under that flawed deal, it was clearly stipulated that 502 00:31:56,880 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 1: the Taliban had to make subsessions. One was an interrafting 503 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:06,000 Speaker 1: process where they would negotiate. One was disengaging from al Qaida, 504 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 1: and I think most intelligence analysts were reports. I think 505 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 1: the UN even came out with the report that said, no, 506 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 1: they hadn't disassociated themselves with al Qaida. They didn't go 507 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:21,880 Speaker 1: through a negotiation process. It was a complete force. So 508 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 1: they you know, they put on a good show in Doha, 509 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,240 Speaker 1: and that gave them international legitimacy where they could hold 510 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 1: press confidences and go on foreign trips. But they fought 511 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:36,280 Speaker 1: to take over. And so they say one thing there 512 00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:40,040 Speaker 1: and they do another thing here, and everyone knew that. 513 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,880 Speaker 1: And I think I would love it if they held 514 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 1: onto their commitments and there was no reprisal attacks, and 515 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 1: they allowed women to go to school, and all of 516 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 1: these things that they're saying now are upheld. Do I 517 00:32:52,520 --> 00:33:13,840 Speaker 1: believe it right now? Absolutely not? Are you? I mean, 518 00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 1: I'm sure you know, just going back to you know, 519 00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 1: what your life was like two weeks ago or even 520 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:21,800 Speaker 1: a week a half, a week and a half ago. Now, 521 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,480 Speaker 1: like I'm sure you were having conversations with the I, M, 522 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 1: f U, S, Treasury, etcetera. Are you still engaged with 523 00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:33,920 Speaker 1: them in any capacity. Is this still a conversation that 524 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:40,080 Speaker 1: you're having or is that those connections basically gone. They 525 00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 1: reach out for me, both both on a personal and 526 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 1: professional level, personal level just to ask how I'm doing. 527 00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 1: And you know what one person from a certain international 528 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,280 Speaker 1: agency was was very helpful to me. You know, I 529 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:58,360 Speaker 1: remember at that airport I was texting him and saying, well, 530 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,320 Speaker 1: what should i'd be doing? Right? Can you putting me 531 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 1: in contact with someone? As you're hearing about on other 532 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,080 Speaker 1: media outlets people are doing it. That was me trying 533 00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,280 Speaker 1: to contact. So it's on a personal level, some people 534 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,759 Speaker 1: were very supportive and helpful, and I'm always thankful for that. 535 00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:16,359 Speaker 1: On a professional level, I try to provide information and 536 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:20,799 Speaker 1: feedback and context where if the question comes up, um, 537 00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:25,520 Speaker 1: but put in a formal capacity are I mean, we've 538 00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:29,120 Speaker 1: been talking about how quickly the situation seemed to change 539 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,400 Speaker 1: from one week to the next. Really and despite the 540 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 1: very fast takeover by the Taliban there there are some 541 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 1: signs of resistance brewing. So I'd be curious to get 542 00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 1: your views on what exactly are the chances that the 543 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:53,200 Speaker 1: Northern Alliance will be able to effectively counter the Taliban. Well, 544 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:56,600 Speaker 1: there are reports that the vice President Sale did not 545 00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 1: leave the country and ease in count These were massoud Son. 546 00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:05,719 Speaker 1: They're both there, um, and they've made various statements to 547 00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 1: that effect. They were there until you know, I think 548 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,759 Speaker 1: most people know the story of how my sup was 549 00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 1: killed on September nine, two eleven, and kept eleventh happened, 550 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:22,120 Speaker 1: So you know they've they've been resisting the Taliban from 551 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:28,240 Speaker 1: prior to the one invasions, so it is likely to continue. Um, 552 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,120 Speaker 1: it will be a tough struggle if they do decide 553 00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 1: to take that route. I mean your comment about the 554 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 1: women who are working previously under you at the Central 555 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:42,880 Speaker 1: Bank and then now obviously they have no idea what's 556 00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:47,200 Speaker 1: going to happen. How difficult I guess I would say 557 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 1: national administration of I think there have been reports of 558 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,759 Speaker 1: the Taliban telling civil servants please come back to work. 559 00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,239 Speaker 1: We're going to try and keep keep things going. But obviously, 560 00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:04,160 Speaker 1: you know, continuation of any sort of normal operations would 561 00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,960 Speaker 1: seem to be extraordinarily difficult. How hard will that be? 562 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:10,439 Speaker 1: And it's sort of a cliche, and I say, there's 563 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:14,160 Speaker 1: only you know as someone who um very ill informed 564 00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,480 Speaker 1: Western observer, but there's this sort of like cliche about 565 00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,719 Speaker 1: you know, this sort of how difficult it is to 566 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:24,040 Speaker 1: form a concept of nationhood in Afghanistan. So you know, 567 00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,640 Speaker 1: prior to the two thousand one invasion, the Taliban had 568 00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,959 Speaker 1: only been in power I think for five years. How 569 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 1: hard will it be for them to run something that 570 00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:38,440 Speaker 1: resembles an operating government. I think it's going to be challenging, 571 00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:42,080 Speaker 1: and many people have made that commented until now. They 572 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,719 Speaker 1: even in during that five year rule prior to two 573 00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:49,959 Speaker 1: thousand one and now, um, you know what we would 574 00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 1: think of as typical governance or central think policy making, 575 00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:58,319 Speaker 1: social support or services provision, I don't think we saw 576 00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,839 Speaker 1: much of that or not a high level. And so 577 00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:07,200 Speaker 1: they're gonna face because face challenges because Afghanistan has changed significantly, 578 00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,320 Speaker 1: especially in urban areas. I think you know, the percentage 579 00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:14,120 Speaker 1: living in urban areas is now about it's been twenty 580 00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,239 Speaker 1: years people have gone the university, so that there I 581 00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:22,120 Speaker 1: think they will fail leges when there's already been one 582 00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 1: or two protests starting in Jalelabad and another in Cobble 583 00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,839 Speaker 1: on Flag Day where they try to repress people from 584 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:32,600 Speaker 1: not putting up the Afghan flags. And so you know 585 00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:37,040 Speaker 1: it's going to depend on how they decide to repress 586 00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 1: or enforce their own beliefs on people who it's as 587 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:44,160 Speaker 1: alien to them as it would be to you. And 588 00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,480 Speaker 1: so how do they manage that? Do they allow do 589 00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:50,640 Speaker 1: they do they enforce their interpretation as they did prior 590 00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,479 Speaker 1: to two thousand one. Are they more lenient. They're making 591 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:55,920 Speaker 1: comments to that effect, but will they implement it and 592 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,480 Speaker 1: will that be sustained? And then the second part is 593 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,839 Speaker 1: on that the economic side. So until now they're living 594 00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,719 Speaker 1: in this environment where you know, for multiple years they've 595 00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:08,440 Speaker 1: been fighting and now they've taken over. Well, now that 596 00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:12,520 Speaker 1: you've taken over, listen, your reserves have been frozen, donors 597 00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,200 Speaker 1: have frozen U out, What is your physical policy, what 598 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,160 Speaker 1: is your monetary policy? How will you be providing services? 599 00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:21,880 Speaker 1: And very quickly they're going to have to face these realities, 600 00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:27,000 Speaker 1: which I'm not sure they are have considered or are helpful. 601 00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,399 Speaker 1: I have I have one more sort of e con 602 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:33,160 Speaker 1: related question and sort of the one. The one other 603 00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,719 Speaker 1: factor that we haven't discussed but there's been a lot 604 00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:39,880 Speaker 1: of discussion about it is the potential relationship between China 605 00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,880 Speaker 1: and the Taliban. And of course it's well known that 606 00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:47,120 Speaker 1: there's sort of an extraordinary amount of UH minerals and 607 00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:51,520 Speaker 1: other natural resources in Afghanistan, including lithium, which is going 608 00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:56,080 Speaker 1: to be increasingly important. How do you see that relationship 609 00:38:56,760 --> 00:39:00,640 Speaker 1: going forward, the China Taliban relationship. Will they be able 610 00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:05,760 Speaker 1: to find some sort of potentially mutually agreeable relationship. Perhaps 611 00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,759 Speaker 1: the benefits China from a trade or a material standpoint, 612 00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:12,880 Speaker 1: Perhaps that solved some of the Taliban's cash problems. What 613 00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,080 Speaker 1: are you watching for there? So China has a very 614 00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:19,880 Speaker 1: close um they call it an all weather relationship with Pakistan, 615 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:25,320 Speaker 1: and obviously Pakistan supports the Taliban, so in that sense 616 00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,120 Speaker 1: they have in you for building an engagement with them. 617 00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:33,200 Speaker 1: But China's foreign policy tends to be very conservative, especially 618 00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:37,160 Speaker 1: in a place like Afghanistan, and They've made many overtures 619 00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:41,440 Speaker 1: and started some processes for investment in Afghanistan, but I've 620 00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,960 Speaker 1: never really followed through or short a willingness to execute on. 621 00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:49,480 Speaker 1: So one example is the Ana copper mind the contract 622 00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,920 Speaker 1: of which I can believe was signed in two thousand eight. 623 00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:57,560 Speaker 1: There's a um An oil contract or investment in northern Afghanistan. 624 00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,359 Speaker 1: Um there's an oil based in northern which was by 625 00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:04,000 Speaker 1: CNPC number of years ago. Both of those have lacked, 626 00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,960 Speaker 1: and I think there were problems in Afghanistan. But I 627 00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,880 Speaker 1: think it's a carrot that's always shown, but I'm not 628 00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:14,800 Speaker 1: exactly sure if it's it'll actually be utilized. So this 629 00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,560 Speaker 1: carrot of potential investments in Afghanistan. You know, I just 630 00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 1: given the environment, it might be on the agenda over 631 00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,840 Speaker 1: fifty year horizon, not in a one to five year horizon. 632 00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:29,960 Speaker 1: They're going to wait and see. That's that would be 633 00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,879 Speaker 1: my expectation. And then secondly, in terms of foreign aid, 634 00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,920 Speaker 1: also that's typically not a component of China's foreign policy, 635 00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:42,000 Speaker 1: so you don't see them providing such as USA does 636 00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,640 Speaker 1: in countries around the world, and so I wouldn't expect 637 00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,360 Speaker 1: them to see that. They always wanted a low footprint 638 00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:52,160 Speaker 1: of their staff and visibility of their interests, so I 639 00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,680 Speaker 1: wouldn't expect that to also be um something that they 640 00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:57,600 Speaker 1: engage in. I think they will be held out as 641 00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,319 Speaker 1: a potential opportunity, but not for the exit you did. 642 00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,560 Speaker 1: And so I think in that sense, notwithstanding this close 643 00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:08,560 Speaker 1: friendship or engagement between all the parties involved, I wouldn't 644 00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:12,960 Speaker 1: expect anyone to be able to replace the financial contributions 645 00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:17,160 Speaker 1: of you know, the US, EU, I, m F, World Bank. 646 00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:20,880 Speaker 1: If that doesn't get solved, then you can't replace it 647 00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:25,480 Speaker 1: with a China or another country. Is there anything that 648 00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:29,400 Speaker 1: you would like to say to the international community, so 649 00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:31,839 Speaker 1: you know, all thoughts, we know that we do have 650 00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:35,360 Speaker 1: some policymakers who occasionally listen. I imagine there's going to 651 00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:38,200 Speaker 1: be a lot of interest in this episode. Is there 652 00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,520 Speaker 1: a particular message that you would like to get out 653 00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:46,120 Speaker 1: to people like them and the broader world. I would 654 00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:52,360 Speaker 1: say Afghans are very disappointed right now. And let me 655 00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:58,560 Speaker 1: say in two areas. One is again, this deal without 656 00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,719 Speaker 1: the Afghan government, which created the frameworks for them to 657 00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:05,560 Speaker 1: be legitimized and come back, was the wrong approach. It 658 00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:09,719 Speaker 1: would have been better for the US to simply have 659 00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,920 Speaker 1: left and said we are no longer here and we 660 00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:17,640 Speaker 1: are removing our troops. But instead there was an agreement 661 00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:23,400 Speaker 1: that was pursued and signed in which they discredited the 662 00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:29,840 Speaker 1: Afghan government, which they came and forced the Afghan government 663 00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:34,600 Speaker 1: to release five thousand prisoners, some of which who were talibans, 664 00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,240 Speaker 1: some of which were murders, some of who of which 665 00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:43,320 Speaker 1: were major drug dealers. And when m HM the administration 666 00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:47,080 Speaker 1: in Afghanistan refused, it was said, we would draw one 667 00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:50,719 Speaker 1: billion in aid to Afghanistan. So imagine a government trying 668 00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:56,000 Speaker 1: to defend itself and an international international partners coming to 669 00:42:56,040 --> 00:43:01,440 Speaker 1: you and saying released five thousand prisoners from Washington, d C. Prisons, 670 00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:04,719 Speaker 1: their murders, their drug dealers, removed them, and then we're 671 00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:07,040 Speaker 1: going to sign a treat with the people who are 672 00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:10,000 Speaker 1: backing them. It would have been better simply for the 673 00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:13,360 Speaker 1: US to have left. So I think that part is 674 00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:18,959 Speaker 1: an aspect which I would ask people to consider and say, 675 00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:21,759 Speaker 1: you know, was that necessary? Could we have it would 676 00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:25,279 Speaker 1: have been better to have left without it. That's you know, 677 00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:28,080 Speaker 1: it even contributed to the loss of moral and most 678 00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,720 Speaker 1: the dices because everyone believed that there was a secret 679 00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:32,720 Speaker 1: deal for to bring the talent and back in power, 680 00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:35,160 Speaker 1: and so that VI would you fight? I think that's 681 00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:40,480 Speaker 1: one aspect of it. And secondly, more immediately is to 682 00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:45,160 Speaker 1: again consider the humanity you know, of people in Afghanistan. 683 00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:49,080 Speaker 1: You know, it doesn't the two things can be separate. 684 00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:53,800 Speaker 1: Whichever way you decide to leave or disengage from Afghanistan, 685 00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,680 Speaker 1: you know, consider the humanity of the people who are there, 686 00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,360 Speaker 1: who are have to face these circumstances. Is who have 687 00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:05,040 Speaker 1: to face these economic challenges, the personal lives, the uncertainty. 688 00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:12,279 Speaker 1: And I think perhaps what we're seeing on TV right now, 689 00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:15,520 Speaker 1: what we're seeing on airport road is just an indication 690 00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:21,040 Speaker 1: that perhaps this could have been done in a better way. Ash, well, 691 00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,719 Speaker 1: I'm very conscious of the time and that you have 692 00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:27,000 Speaker 1: a lot to be doing at the moment. So um, 693 00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:28,920 Speaker 1: I think we'll leave it there, and thank you so 694 00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:32,200 Speaker 1: much for coming on all thoughts Uh, we both really 695 00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:35,200 Speaker 1: appreciate it. Thank you so much. Tas I appreciate it 696 00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:37,239 Speaker 1: as well. Thank you for having me. Thank you. That 697 00:44:37,360 --> 00:45:00,239 Speaker 1: was fantastic. So Joe, I can't possibly say that I 698 00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:04,200 Speaker 1: enjoyed that conversation, although I did find it interesting, absolutely 699 00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:09,120 Speaker 1: heartbreaking to consider the situation that Afghanistan now finds itself 700 00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:13,520 Speaker 1: in One thing I will say is it was very 701 00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:17,319 Speaker 1: interesting to compare and contrast the current situation with what 702 00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:20,319 Speaker 1: Afghanistan looked like just a few months ago. From a 703 00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:24,360 Speaker 1: monetary policy perspective, so Asmal mentioned that they had had 704 00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:29,840 Speaker 1: success with the digitalization program. Inflation was relatively low in 705 00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:33,719 Speaker 1: the single digits, the currency was relatively stable, a little 706 00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:37,080 Speaker 1: bit of depreciation but nothing major. And again, all of 707 00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:40,320 Speaker 1: that in the context of COVID and in many ways, 708 00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:42,279 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people in the West are 709 00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:48,359 Speaker 1: always going to view Afghanistan as something of a troubled country. 710 00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:51,120 Speaker 1: But if you think over the past year, you know, 711 00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:56,200 Speaker 1: in many ways there had been progress, efforts were being made, 712 00:45:56,480 --> 00:46:00,800 Speaker 1: and now we're seeing many of them I've done. Yeah. 713 00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:04,040 Speaker 1: I had the comment that he made about the women 714 00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:07,040 Speaker 1: employees at the Central Bank reaching out to him and 715 00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,319 Speaker 1: saying like what now or you know what, and that 716 00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:12,200 Speaker 1: it like drives home like like this sort of like 717 00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:17,160 Speaker 1: unimaginable speed and change of society. And so one day 718 00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:20,920 Speaker 1: you're a sort of you're a professional working at a 719 00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:25,440 Speaker 1: modern central bank, engaged in something that sort of is 720 00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:28,839 Speaker 1: like recognizably modern finance throughout the world, and the next 721 00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,879 Speaker 1: day you're like you don't even know like whether it's 722 00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:34,200 Speaker 1: safe to go to work or whether you have a job. 723 00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:37,720 Speaker 1: And what it's kind of it's the speed of change. 724 00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:41,640 Speaker 1: I mean, it's thinking about it from the perspective of unemployee, 725 00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:45,799 Speaker 1: that situation I think is basically unimaginable to us. Absolutely. 726 00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:49,399 Speaker 1: All Right, well, um, I guess we should leave it there. Yeah, 727 00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:53,040 Speaker 1: let's leave it there. Okay. This has been another episode 728 00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,879 Speaker 1: of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can 729 00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:59,839 Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway, and I'm Joey Isn't. 730 00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:02,960 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart and 731 00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:07,239 Speaker 1: our guest asmal Ahmadi. He's on Twitter. He's at a Ahmadi. 732 00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:11,520 Speaker 1: Follow our producer Laura Carlson, She's at Laura M. Carlson. 733 00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:15,720 Speaker 1: Followed the Bloomberg head of podcast Francesca Levi at Francesca Today. 734 00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:19,040 Speaker 1: And check out all of our podcasts at Bloomberg onto 735 00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:21,560 Speaker 1: the handle at podcasts. Thanks for listening.