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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast POY All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go fifteen Houndy twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 1: forty Cody five fifty.

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Speaker 2: And the kick Ass Block.

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Speaker 1: Look a football Laura Stundus, Oh my goodness, he.

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Speaker 2: Stumbled and football the lateral.

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Speaker 1: Turn a canter on the job.

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Speaker 2: Don't you. The lad came off the veil the night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the sage of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 1: It's the sage of the fight in the Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: This the group five Deep Dive and I'm Mike Calberry's

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Speaker 1: joined as always by Mike Ianello. We've made it through

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Speaker 1: week zero's appetizer course. Ready for the main course, the

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Speaker 1: full on of games gonna start on Thursday night, stretch

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Speaker 1: all the way through Labor Day. Lots of FBS FCS matchups,

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Speaker 1: group of five teams actually hosting some home games, which

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Speaker 1: is interesting for the first time in a while that

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Speaker 1: I've seen that on a slate multiple games. Bret McMurphy

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Speaker 1: and I got into that on the recap episode on Monday,

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Speaker 1: And just a bit of housekeeping this week because of

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Speaker 1: that full Thursday Slate. Colin and Stuckey's full breakdown will

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Speaker 1: drop Thursday morning, a full day early. So the season

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Speaker 1: has come in full swing here. We're excited here at

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Speaker 1: the Action Network, and I'm going to go to you first,

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Speaker 1: Ianlo in terms of your overall emotions, it's been a

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Speaker 1: long slog through the offseason. There's been openers and lines

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Speaker 1: flowing around for a Week one for months, so there's

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Speaker 1: been some interesting line movements. There's also that storm down

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Speaker 1: in the Gulf of Mexico that has the potential to

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Speaker 1: impact some totals, maybe some game cancelations, move up, move back,

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Speaker 1: kickoff times, lots of intrigue. But where's your head at

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Speaker 1: as we head into week one?

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Speaker 2: So obviously I'm very excited, but I'm also very nervous

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Speaker 2: because looking in the Action app I got absolutely hosed

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Speaker 2: the Week zero did horrible, just bloodbath for your boy.

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Speaker 2: But you mentioned it. These line has been out for

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Speaker 2: months and they're all we have to look at. You know,

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Speaker 2: have a little too many cocktails on Saturday night. You

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Speaker 2: start firing late night, it starts to add add up

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Speaker 2: after a while. I have like twenty eight bets going

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Speaker 2: this weekend, which is way more than I usually have.

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Speaker 2: So if I have a week like I did last week,

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Speaker 2: I maybe seep on your couch next month. And you

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Speaker 2: mentioned the line getting the line movement. Obviously with this

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Speaker 2: much time, they move a lot. And I have like

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Speaker 2: really good closing line value on most of my bets,

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Speaker 2: which makes me super nervous because I feel like when

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Speaker 2: I have good CLV, I always tend to lose. So

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Speaker 2: I'm like very nervous for this Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna similar spot one of the bets that

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Speaker 1: I fired into the Action Network over the summer that

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to advocate for this week. It's a

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Speaker 1: total that's moved by six and a half points, so

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Speaker 1: I liked over fifty six and a half fifty seven

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Speaker 1: between Texas State and Baylor that's bubbled up close to

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Speaker 1: sixty three now through some key numbers as well. Before

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Speaker 1: we get into our best.

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Speaker 2: I'll tease them later, I'm gonna ask you what your

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Speaker 2: thoughts are on it at the end when we usually

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Speaker 2: do our like best of the rest type of thing.

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Speaker 2: It's been so long I've accidentally bet the same game twice.

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Speaker 2: That's a lot. I bet it, and I was like

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Speaker 2: already bet this, so you're I got a lot going on.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of the full slate, for those who are listening

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Speaker 1: in for the first time, it's gonna be very similar

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Speaker 1: to last year. We're gonna go through our G five

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Speaker 1: Heroes of the week. Our best bets are round robin

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Speaker 1: to help you put together, you know, a five team

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Speaker 1: either parlay or a round robin every single week, and

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Speaker 1: then our underdog moneyline parlay. Hopefully we're a little bit

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Speaker 1: more successful than we were last year, So let's get

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Speaker 1: kicked off with some positivity. I'm gonna start with my

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Speaker 1: G five hero the week in Week zero locked hero

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Speaker 1: Babe Tarren Shive. For those of you not familiar, I

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Speaker 1: can't blame you. He is the kickoff specialist for San

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Speaker 1: Jose State and a lot of people like to point

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Speaker 1: out that Chevin Cordero and the offense got a cook

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Speaker 1: in there. They get a backdoor cover. It wouldn't have

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Speaker 1: happened if it wasn't for Shive with a little baby

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Speaker 1: on site kick where it looks like he misses the

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Speaker 1: ball and it just trickles and goes exactly ten yards

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Speaker 1: perfectly executed. They end up going down stalling inside the

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Speaker 1: USC twenty, but if USC had recovered that ball, they

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Speaker 1: certainly would have scored and been able to cover in

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, So a shout out to Shive. Also,

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Speaker 1: I love San Jose State's website because they have an

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Speaker 1: embedded nil link. So for ten bucks, he'll record a

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Speaker 1: cameo style video for us if he makes the podcast

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Speaker 1: again as a hero, I'm certainly going to dial that

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Speaker 1: up and for thirty four bucks to'll autograph just about anything.

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Speaker 1: So if you made some money on San Jose State

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Speaker 1: with that backdoor cover, you should probably hit up Shive

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Speaker 1: and ask for his Johnny Hancock on a football All right,

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Speaker 1: who's your G five hero from week zero?

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Speaker 2: I just want to say my brother is. He's a

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Speaker 2: very casual college football fan. He's an NFL guy. He

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Speaker 2: texted me during that game. So, as San Jose State

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Speaker 2: a wagon or does USC's defense just sock? And I

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Speaker 2: said a little bit of ball?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I would go a little litle bit

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Speaker 1: more towards the USC defense. Not a bad step forward.

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Speaker 1: I mean, bear Alexander looked good at times, but he

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Speaker 1: was loafing at times and like he needs to be

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Speaker 1: like a transformational player on their d line. To be

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Speaker 1: able to stop the run. And you saw the Spartans

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Speaker 1: hit some big plays in the run game quarterback scrambles.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I agree. I think it's a mixed bag.

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Speaker 1: But I'm less impressed with the USC's defense as opposed

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Speaker 1: to already had pretty good expectations. I mean, Cordero was

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Speaker 1: the Mountain West preseason Player of the Year. I think

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Speaker 1: kind of played up to it, you know, playing on

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Speaker 1: the road at a Power five school. All right, your

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Speaker 1: G five hero?

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Speaker 2: Yes, for my G five here of the week, which

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Speaker 2: I think we should name the Bailey z Appy Memorial Award.

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Speaker 2: I'm wearing my jersey. He was cut today by that

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Speaker 2: scumbag Bill Belichick, so pouring out for our boy ZAPPI

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Speaker 2: I'm going with UTEP head coach Dana Dimmel. He is

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Speaker 2: my hero of the week because I mentioned it. I

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Speaker 2: got wrecked on Saturday. I went on in two in

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Speaker 2: the show, lost every bet except my Jacksonville State bet

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Speaker 2: thanks to this bumbling moron. I asked you during our

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Speaker 2: conference USA previews, is dimml just a bad coach? And

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Speaker 2: we got our answer on Saturday. He stinks and he's

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Speaker 2: my hero because his idiosity won me a bet you

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Speaker 2: tep out gaining Jacksonville State by nearly one hundred yards

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Speaker 2: hardest in a dude's open all game. He continually mismanaged

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Speaker 2: to clock. He called what he had. He took a

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Speaker 2: delay game after a timeout, so he tried to take

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Speaker 2: his time out and realize you can't do that anymore,

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Speaker 2: which is like, why you need a time out? You

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Speaker 2: just took one. He's so stupid. They were in field

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Speaker 2: goal range, march down the field, down three third and

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Speaker 2: one on the twenty four yard line. He calls a

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Speaker 2: freaking goal line fade from the twenty four yard line.

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Speaker 2: Obviously doesn't work because unless you have Calvin Johnson, a

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Speaker 2: goal line fade never works. It's the dumbest playing football.

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Speaker 2: Every coach will be fired as soon as they call

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Speaker 2: a goal line fade. And then instead of kicking the

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Speaker 2: tying field goal or just like run the ball for

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Speaker 2: a yard and keep your drive going, throws another pass

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Speaker 2: game sealing interception. Jacksonville State wins. So he is my

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Speaker 2: G five here of the week because his incompetence kept

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Speaker 2: me from going, oh four, thank you Dan to dimmle.

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Speaker 1: I love it because honestly, when they got into that,

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Speaker 1: like t formation where like the full back and tight

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Speaker 1: end is like basically in the back pocket of Hardston

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Speaker 1: and then they run like almost a naked boot with

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Speaker 1: only one receiver, and then Jacksonville State like triple covered him.

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Speaker 1: I was like, I think I'm going to win this bet,

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Speaker 1: even though to your point, Jacksonville State was outclassed in

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Speaker 1: that game halfway through. If you could have offered it

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Speaker 1: to me, do you want to switch sides? I would

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Speaker 1: have gone UTEP. But you know, the combination of the

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Speaker 1: play calling mistakes and then their lone big play in

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Speaker 1: the passing game getting overturned that touchdown pass in the

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Speaker 1: end zone, there's just a little, you know, gambling ferry

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Speaker 1: dust sprinkled all over that Jacksonville State.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you agree. I don't know if

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Speaker 2: you've noticed this too, but like, I think our most

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Speaker 2: loyal fan base, like the fans I get the most

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Speaker 2: tweets from involving our podcast, are UTET fans. We have

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Speaker 2: a ton of UTAT fans. I listen to the show

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Speaker 2: and I feel bad for them because I tweeted it

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Speaker 2: on Saturday. I'm like, does he last the season? And

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Speaker 2: like I got a lot of applies from utet fans

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Speaker 2: who are not happy at all. I think there's no chance,

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Speaker 2: no chance their coach next year.

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Speaker 1: You'd argue the rest of the way, like they have

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Speaker 1: a veteran quarterback even though he's just not all that accurate.

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Speaker 1: They have arguably the best wide receiver in the conference,

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Speaker 1: Deon Hankins aka Tankins, running behind that offensive line. They

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Speaker 1: should be mint. This team should absolutely be a They

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Speaker 1: look really good too, Yeah, I mean absolutely, Like from

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Speaker 1: a player to player basis, this is a good team.

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Speaker 1: But then when you put it all together in the

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Speaker 1: decision making from the coaching staff, it kind of, you know,

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Speaker 1: puts that all to the wayside. So I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: This is I think he's coaching for his job, domb stretch,

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Speaker 1: and he puts himself in a hole losing to what

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Speaker 1: should have been a w on his schedule. All Right,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get into best bets, as I mentioned in

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Speaker 1: Best Bets Round Robin parlay as well as the underdog

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Speaker 1: money line parlay. So I'm gonna get started. Colorado State

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Speaker 1: catching twelve and a half. I mentioned it at the

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Speaker 1: top one of the rare group of five teams hosting

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Speaker 1: a Power five team. They get Wazoo in Fort Collins

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Speaker 1: and I beat the drum all off season. You can

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Speaker 1: go back and listen to our Mountain West preview with

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Speaker 1: Colin Wilson as well. Colorado State just has a fantastic

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Speaker 1: collection of off skill talent. Tory Horten, Justice, Ross Simmons,

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Speaker 1: Dallen Holker, Kobe Johnson as their starters from the skill

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Speaker 1: position grouping.

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Speaker 2: I love that.

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Speaker 1: I think two of them probably could be all Mountain

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Speaker 1: West and Kobe Johnson, a transfer in from North Dakota State.

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Speaker 1: I think he's going to surprise a lot of people.

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Speaker 1: At running back. It all works with Clay Millen, who

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Speaker 1: is freakishly accurate. Despite getting sacked more than any quarterback

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Speaker 1: in the whole country last year, they gave up fifty

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Speaker 1: nine sacks, still completed seventy two point two percent of

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Speaker 1: this passes. What do they do? They go into the portal.

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Speaker 1: They bring in a ton of transfers from the FCS

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Speaker 1: and D two level. They got a lot bigger. They

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Speaker 1: bring in sixty six career starts through the portal. Hopefully

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Speaker 1: the offensive line goes from an F to a C,

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Speaker 1: because I think if it's at just a mediocre level

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Speaker 1: in terms of FBS football, this offense is going to pop.

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Speaker 1: Then when I look at Wazoo, they got a new

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Speaker 1: DC and this is from a team that couldn't generate

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Speaker 1: pressure last year. And then when you look at where

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Speaker 1: they lost folks from a team that was already seventy

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Speaker 1: third and sack right. Their most disruptive player, Diane Henley

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Speaker 1: twelve tackles for loss. He's gone. Francisco Mauinoa transfers to

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Speaker 1: Miami at linebacker. Those are two guys who are generating

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Speaker 1: a lot of pressure, making plays in the opposing backfields. Gone.

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Speaker 1: So I like that, and I do understand that they

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Speaker 1: brought in some interesting pieces through the portal. But if

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Speaker 1: you want to catch a team that has a lot

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Speaker 1: of new portal pieces on defense, you want to do

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Speaker 1: it early, you want to do it at home. And

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Speaker 1: then when it goes into the passing game. For Wazuo,

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Speaker 1: Colorado State had one strength down the stretch. It was

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Speaker 1: their past defense. They finished twenty third in yards per

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Speaker 1: attempt allowed nineteenth and pass d overall rarely got burned

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Speaker 1: with the big play. They welcome back four of their

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Speaker 1: five starters in the secondary. I think this is just

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Speaker 1: a strength on strength kind of matchup. Wazuo's obviously going

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Speaker 1: to pass all day. I think Colorado State's ready for it,

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Speaker 1: even though last year they did get burned. They were

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Speaker 1: kind of outclassed at times. When I look at what

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Speaker 1: Colorado State also has upfront, Mohammed Kamara is back eight

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Speaker 1: and a half sacks last year up against the Wazoo

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Speaker 1: front that allowed a lot of sacks, So I think

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Speaker 1: this is an opportunity. Twelve and a half is just

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Speaker 1: over that key number of ten. For me, it was

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Speaker 1: enough to push me in that direction for this opener

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Speaker 1: at Canvas Stadium, it's going to be rocking. Everything I'm

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Speaker 1: reading on Twitter is they're close to a sellout. Hopefully

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Speaker 1: they get there and it's a wild scene. I'm also

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Speaker 1: sprinkling on the money line plus three eighty. I know

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Speaker 1: that I'm wearing the green and gold sunglasses here, But

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Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on the RAMS in week one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I love it. I'm actually writing this game up

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Speaker 2: for the Action Network website, so look for that on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, I'm taking Colorado State as well. This is

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Speaker 2: one of those games where colv Baby I got at

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Speaker 2: plus fourteen and a half. I still like it at twelve.

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Speaker 2: I think they can win this game. A little teaser

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Speaker 2: from my article al though, guy I was looking up

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Speaker 2: earlier this today they have a Power five team. They've

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Speaker 2: played a Power five team at home six times since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and seven. They are five and one against

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Speaker 2: the spread in those games, three of which they want outright.

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Speaker 2: Two of those three wins came against back twelve teams,

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Speaker 2: so they have had success at home against the power five.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned it. We're all board the Rams this year.

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Speaker 2: I think it starts here. I'm not a big fan

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Speaker 2: of cam Ward. I think he's people. It was a

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Speaker 2: lot of hype coming in and I was not imbressed

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Speaker 2: with him last year. He's not someone that really scares

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Speaker 2: me all that much. So yeah, I love it could be.

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Speaker 1: A burgeoning future Mountain West Conference rivalry between Wazoo and

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Speaker 1: Colorado State. And also one last little note to throw

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Speaker 1: in here. Yes, Colorado State was three and nine last

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Speaker 1: year straight up, but when you look at what Jade

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Speaker 1: Norvel did at Nevada, it was a very similar start

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Speaker 1: for him, three and nine with the wolfback and then

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Speaker 1: a plus five year over year win increase. I foresee

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Speaker 1: something similar for Colorado State. I think they're going to

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Speaker 1: be a tough out here and flirt with the outright upset.

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Speaker 1: What's your best bet of week? Number one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, from my best bet, something I actually teased earlier

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Speaker 2: this offseason, I'm going with the Fresno State perdue under

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Speaker 2: forty eight and a half. With the new clock rolls,

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Speaker 2: I'm looking at target unders a lot early on as

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Speaker 2: teams kind of adjust to these new rules. And I

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Speaker 2: also like the fact that these are two teams typically

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Speaker 2: associate with a high powered offense, you know, the Aidan

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Speaker 2: O'Connell j Cannaer offenses. You know, they're both gone. Jeff

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Speaker 2: Browns off to Louisville. Ryan Walters comes in from Illinois

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Speaker 2: defensive coordinator for Illinois defensive coordinator from Missouri before that.

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Speaker 2: I think he's gonna be a great coach, but you

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Speaker 2: know he's a defensive minded coach. And yeah, they brought

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Speaker 2: in Graham Harrell as the new OC. You know they're

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Speaker 2: gonna run the air raid. They ran it a if

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Speaker 2: they threw the ball at USC under Harrow, but last

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Speaker 2: year's West Virginia team was pretty well balanced. They ran

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Speaker 2: the ball a lot for an air raid. They were

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Speaker 2: way more successful running the ball. And you know Purdue

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Speaker 2: ranked fourteenth in place per game last year. Fast upbeat.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna slow down dramatically as good as Friendsoe State

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Speaker 2: was on offense. You know, they were eighty fifth in

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Speaker 2: pace they were. They play very slow. Aidan O'Connell's gone.

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Speaker 2: Charlie Jones is gone, by the way, Aidan O'Connell's looked

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Speaker 2: really good for the Raiders, like with Jimmy G's injury.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna start some games this year. But Charlie Jones

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Speaker 2: is gone. Pain Durham is gone. You know who's back,

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Speaker 2: Devin maccabee. For their five offensive linemen, they're gonna run

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Speaker 2: the ball. Hudton card is talented, but his first start,

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Speaker 2: you know, I expect him to lean on the run.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 2: Fresno State lost their entire offense. Hayter, Mims, Cropper, Romigio Pope, Kelly, everybody,

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Speaker 2: everyone's gone. Mikey Keene is named the starter from UCF.

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Speaker 2: You know, made eleven starts, twenty three touchdown, seven picks.

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Speaker 2: He's good, he wasn't great. I think there's a reason

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Speaker 2: he left UCF. So they're gonna have a complete new offense,

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Speaker 2: complete new quarterback, new running back, new wide receivers, and

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Speaker 2: the Friendly State defense was terrific. Last year they were

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Speaker 2: thirty first and success rate their secondary is terrific. So

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Speaker 2: even if Hutton card is throwing the ball, cam Lockridge

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Speaker 2: is a stud. He led the conference and picks. I

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Speaker 2: love this President State secondary. Up front, they have a

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Speaker 2: great front seven, they return a ton produced defense was

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Speaker 2: sneaky pretty good last year they were forty third in

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Speaker 2: the country, brought back two great safeties. Like I mentioned,

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Speaker 2: I love what Walters does with the secondary. So because

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Speaker 2: both teams have new quarterbacks, new offenses, I think they're

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Speaker 2: going to run. They're both gonna lean on the run.

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Speaker 2: They're going to kind of ease into this game. And

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Speaker 2: I just trust both defenses more than the offenses at

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Speaker 2: this point. So I think the total is a tick

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Speaker 2: too high. So I'm gonna go under Fresno and Purdue.

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Speaker 1: I like it. I think that's all sound reasoning. And

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Speaker 1: I do think with some new coaches on the produce side,

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Speaker 1: and also trying to work in some new offensive pieces

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Speaker 1: on the Fresno side, it does make sense that we're

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Speaker 1: gonna see a little bit more running and the pace.

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Speaker 1: It just it can't be overstated how important pace and

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Speaker 1: the new clock rules are going to work together hand

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Speaker 1: in hands. And it was really slow, yeah, Fresno slow.

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Speaker 1: And I think also the gambling public and odds makers

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Speaker 1: are going to be a little slow to react. They

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Speaker 1: need a bigger sample size. In week one, unders paid

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Speaker 1: out for the seven games. It wasn't like a tidal

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Speaker 1: wave of unders cashing, so.

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Speaker 2: To be fair, And the UMass over was ridiculous. That

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Speaker 2: was that was an under. That's an honorary under. What

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Speaker 2: was it like? It was like fourteen to ten going

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Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter, some ridiculous thing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they scored like four two points there

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Speaker 1: Diego Pavi almost got his head removed. He was throwing

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Speaker 1: passes with you know, a backwards helmet on at one point.

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Speaker 1: So hopefully we get to talk about pave again on

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Speaker 1: the podcast. But I took it on the chin there.

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Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna hop into the G five round robin.

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Speaker 1: That means we're gonna give you five picks every single week.

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Speaker 1: You can pair him up as a parlay, you can

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Speaker 1: go ahead with a round robin. I always prefer to

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Speaker 1: go with the round robin by twos. So he creates

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Speaker 1: multiple two team parlays, gives you an opportunity to go

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Speaker 1: three and two and make money. Four and one, you're

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Speaker 1: killing at five and oh, obviously you're making a lot

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Speaker 1: of dough. I'm going to start by fading a group

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Speaker 1: of five team that I have no problem fading. I

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Speaker 1: talked about during the sun Belt preview, how Varre you

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Speaker 1: Butch Jones, Butch, don't kill my vibe. You were about

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Speaker 1: to get fired. My man, your team is no good.

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Speaker 1: It is Honestly, I don't understand how he's made it

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Speaker 1: this far. Like with Arkansas State last year, they kind

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Speaker 1: of looked lifeless at times, and that was with a

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Speaker 1: quarterback who could kind of play. Now they got j T.

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Speaker 1: Shrout from Colorado. Everything I saw from him in Colorado

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Speaker 1: he could not play. But I'm going to start with

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Speaker 1: the Oklahoma side of this, Jeff Levy as their OC.

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Speaker 1: I went back and I dug into his numbers at

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Speaker 1: UCF with Dylan Gabriel at ole Miss as the offensive coordinator,

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Speaker 1: and then last year in Norman, when he was a

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Speaker 1: double digit favorite as the play caller. He's eleven and

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Speaker 1: five against the spread. His team's average forty seven points

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Speaker 1: per game, they dropped some huge bombs on teams as

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Speaker 1: major favorites. So what I like is that he puts

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Speaker 1: his foot down the accelerator. This is an opportunity for

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Speaker 1: a showcase game for Dylan Gabriel. There is also a

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Speaker 1: showcase game for Brent Venables. I think you can make

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Speaker 1: a lot of arguments, is he the right guy or

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Speaker 1: the wrong guy to run a program? Does he really

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Speaker 1: kind of gravitate towards what it takes to be a

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Speaker 1: head coach and to be kind of a CEO and

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Speaker 1: overlooking every element of the program and doing a great

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Speaker 1: job recruiting twenty four to seven and recruiting the portal

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Speaker 1: and everything else. And make all those arguments in one

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Speaker 1: direction or another. What I don't think you can make

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Speaker 1: an argument against is his coaching acumen on the defensive

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Speaker 1: side of the ball. And he just didn't have the

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Speaker 1: guys last year. Should have gone in with the Deon

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Speaker 1: Sanders approach and said, everybody, who's you know, not an

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Speaker 1: all Big twelve performer, like hit the bricks. I'm just

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Speaker 1: going to get some transfers in here. Instead he went

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Speaker 1: and was like very patient with guys. He basically said

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Speaker 1: it in you know direct questioning about Dean Sanders, He's like,

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Speaker 1: I wanted to give everyone like a grace period, a

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Speaker 1: one year period to figure out where they fit. Well.

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Speaker 1: Now he goes into the portal, finally gets a defensive

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Speaker 1: lineman and ron Dell both Rod from Wake Forest, linebacker

397
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Speaker 1: Dessaun McCullough from Indiana, safety from Texas Tech, and Reggie

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Speaker 1: Pearson and this five star kid at the edge everyone's

399
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Speaker 1: been buzzing about all off season. I'm gonna really work

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Speaker 1: hard not to mispronounce his name, Attapoju Adaba, a five

401
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Speaker 1: star edg rusher. I'm telling you, in this game, he's

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Speaker 1: going to have at least two tackles for loss, because

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Speaker 1: when you look at this, you know offense for Arkansas State.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to be able to protect

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Speaker 1: Shrout and I think he's going to be on the

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Speaker 1: run for the majority of this game. So when I

407
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Speaker 1: look at the Sooners, I think an entire offseason focusing

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Speaker 1: on defense. They finished eighty eighth and success rate unacceptable

409
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Speaker 1: seventy ninth and explosive this allowed forty ninth in havoc.

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Speaker 1: I think the Havoc gets cranked up in a game

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Speaker 1: like this, and then when they have the ball. Arkansas

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Speaker 1: State's defense, holy crap. I mean twenty twenty one, they

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Speaker 1: were ninety fifth in past D one hundred and nineteenth

414
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Speaker 1: and pass plays of thirty plus yards allowed. It got

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Speaker 1: even worse from a big play allowed standpoint through the

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Speaker 1: air in twenty twenty two, and they kept the defensive coordinator.

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Speaker 1: We talk about this every year at the beginning of

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Speaker 1: the season. There's reason for optimism if you go and

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Speaker 1: get kids in the portal and you get a new

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Speaker 1: coaching staff with a new strategy. They didn't do that,

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Speaker 1: and when you look at what they have, they only

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Speaker 1: have eight starters returning in total, and both specialists fifty

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Speaker 1: one percent of their line starts. I really was trying

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Speaker 1: to squint to see if there's anything I was missing here.

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Speaker 1: But I, for my power rankings have this at forty

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Speaker 1: two and a half, so I have a touchdown worth

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Speaker 1: of value. I'm gonna take Oklahoma to lower the boom,

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Speaker 1: really get that bad taste of a six and seven

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Speaker 1: season out of their mouth, and start off with a

430
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 1: big win over the Red Wolves. What do you think

431
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:54,720
Speaker 1: about fading arguably the worst team in the Sun Belt.

432
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,080
Speaker 2: I always liked doing that, but honestly, my take on it,

433
00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 2: and I obviously didn't dig into this game from like

434
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 2: an ex a no standpoint. I like it because when

435
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 2: I look at these Week one matchups, when it's often

436
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,360
Speaker 2: you know, cupcake city for some of these big teams,

437
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,439
Speaker 2: I like to look at what is their motivation for

438
00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:13,879
Speaker 2: running it up? You know, Alabama has nothing improved, Georgia

439
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,720
Speaker 2: has nothing approved, Michigan has nothing improved. Against East Carolina.

440
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 2: You know, Alabama winning by eighty this week doesn't do

441
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 2: anything to give you confidence or lose conference in Alabama.

442
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 2: Oklahoma has to listen to Texas back all freaking off season.

443
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 2: They're like odds on favor in the conference. You're already

444
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,119
Speaker 2: hearing some Venables hot seat talk. You started that argument

445
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,199
Speaker 2: saying is he the right guy? I think Oklahoma has

446
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 2: they want to flex. I think they want to get

447
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 2: the taste of the last season out of their mouth.

448
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,920
Speaker 2: I think winning by sixty is is a statement for them.

449
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 2: They're like, hey, we're better, We're here to play. You know,

450
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 2: we've taken a step forward. I have a team, you know,

451
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 2: not the hot seat talk, but I have a team

452
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 2: similar where I think there is a they want to

453
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 2: make a statement. I have a team I'll talk about later,

454
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,640
Speaker 2: but just from that aspect alone, I like Oklahoma because

455
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 2: I think they have a reason to try to build

456
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: some excitement around that program. That's how to listen to

457
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,080
Speaker 2: Texas back for five months.

458
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,919
Speaker 1: I also want to toss in just with Dylan Gabriel, like,

459
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,199
Speaker 1: the kid got banged up last year, but when he

460
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 1: was healthy, he cooked a bunch of teams, like he

461
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 1: had lots of games with three plus touchdowns. He had

462
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 1: some really nice performances down the stretch. He looked pretty

463
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:21,919
Speaker 1: good in the bowl game, which, by the way, how

464
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 1: much different is the narrative on Oklahoma if they beat

465
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 1: FSU in that bowl game and they were right there?

466
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 1: So I view that as you know, people say there's

467
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 1: no moral victories. I'm looking at from a gambling perspective.

468
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 1: I view that as they went ahead and jumped up

469
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 1: in my power rankings based on how they played Florida

470
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 1: State as opposed to just viewing it from a wins

471
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 1: and loss perspective. And then the last piece, they got

472
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 1: a five star kid who's the backup, so he'll probably

473
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 1: get some run in this game, and he certainly wants

474
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 1: to play well and to kind of show out in

475
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 1: front of the home crowd. So I like that elements.

476
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 1: You saw it a little bit with USC go into

477
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 1: their bench against San Jose State. They still ran the offense.

478
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 1: And I still think in the portal era you want

479
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 1: to give your highly touted freshman and backup quarterbacks, is

480
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 1: you know, as much of an opportunity as possible to

481
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:08,639
Speaker 1: stack some stats and put some things on the highlight

482
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: reel to get some confidence. And I think that's where

483
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:12,119
Speaker 1: we're going to see with ou here. All right, what

484
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 1: do you adding on to the round robin?

485
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 2: All right? For my first pick, I got the under

486
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 2: out of the way. Let's take it over SMU La

487
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 2: Tech over sixty five and a half already locked U in.

488
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 1: This is one of my favorites of the week. Waiting.

489
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 2: Well, if you have skipped all our preview pods and

490
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,919
Speaker 2: this is your first episode, let me be the first

491
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 2: to welcome you to the Stone Age in Dallas, Texas.

492
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 2: This kid is going to sling it. I've said it

493
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 2: one hundred times, former four star recruit Rocket Arm. He's

494
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 2: also more mobile than Mordecai, which I haven't really mentioned

495
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 2: as much. This is the best wide receiver room in

496
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 2: the G five for my money, where Shie Rice is gone,

497
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 2: Jordan Curly, Mookie Dixon, Jake Bailey, tight end r J. Maryland.

498
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,439
Speaker 2: They add a wide receiver from Miami, a wide receiver

499
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 2: from TCU. I think they're gonna be They're gonna be loaded.

500
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 2: Jalen Knighton transferred in from Miami and he takes over

501
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 2: at running back. And by the way, this is sometimes

502
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 2: you get these Power five guys that like were there

503
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 2: as a freshman, didn't make didn't earn the job in transfer. No, no, no,

504
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 2: he was their leading rusher in twenty twenty one. He

505
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 2: had over seventy yards per game. He was second on

506
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 2: the team last year. Like this is a dude who

507
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 2: played for Miami a lot. Their often should their their

508
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 2: often should realistly name their number in this game because sure,

509
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:25,360
Speaker 2: you know FIU couldn't complete a foard pass against Louisiana Tech.

510
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 2: But I think that's just because Grayson James is horrific.

511
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 2: I don't think it was really anything that LA Tech did.

512
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,400
Speaker 1: And to be honest, I think that's great for us

513
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 1: because if they had played a functional team, they probably

514
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 1: would have got exposed as a defense that who knows,

515
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 1: maybe they got better. All I know is last year

516
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 1: on tape Latech's defense it didn't horrific.

517
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 2: Did La Tech even have safeties on the field? Like

518
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 2: I ass just took them off the field in the

519
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 2: second half and just put in two more defensive linemen.

520
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,199
Speaker 2: Be like this dude can't even reach us. And but

521
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 2: what I did like was I mentioned Jalen Knighton Samari Lawrence,

522
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,040
Speaker 2: who was supposed to be FIU's backup running back. I

523
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 2: had one hundred and thirty nine yards on the ground.

524
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,439
Speaker 2: He averaged nine point three yards per carry. What do

525
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 2: you think Jalen Knighton is gonna do? He might score

526
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 2: every time he touches the football. And on the other side,

527
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 2: the SMU defense was terrible last year. And while I

528
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: liked them from an overall season outlook, that's why I

529
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 2: bet them a thousand different ways. They returned just four starters,

530
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,120
Speaker 2: and you know it might they have a ton of transfers.

531
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 2: It might take a few games for them to fully gel.

532
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 2: As much as I hate Hank Blockmeyer, and he looked

533
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 2: at every bit of Hank Blockmeyer in the early bit

534
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 2: of that game. Having this week zero game under the

535
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 2: belt really helps him because he did settle in nicely

536
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 2: in the second half. He finished with over three hundred

537
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 2: yards smoke. Harris is still an absolute electric factory. They

538
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 2: got Cyrus Allen, they got Nate Jones, They have weapons.

539
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 2: You know, they have like three running backs. I think

540
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,199
Speaker 2: two and a half of them are hurt, but I

541
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 2: saw one of them supposed to play the other one's

542
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,680
Speaker 2: trending in the right direction. But they have depth there,

543
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 2: so I'm not super concerned about that. And I mentioned

544
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 2: with the Fresno game the pace SMU was fourth in

545
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 2: the country and plays per game. Last year they averaged

546
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 2: eighty plays per game, and you know, law Tech was

547
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 2: forty fifth, so that's not that far behind. It's still

548
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 2: top third of the league. So both of these teams

549
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 2: play fast, So I don't know that the clock rules

550
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 2: will have as much of fact when they're running to

551
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 2: the ball and snapping it regardless. Like I said, I

552
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 2: think SMU names their number here they get, you know,

553
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 2: forty five to fourteen, do I just does I hit?

554
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:26,679
Speaker 2: Do I do the math right in my head? Probably

555
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 2: not fifty to seventeen. I don't know whatever I think

556
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 2: SMU names are number and I think law Tech will

557
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 2: be able to get enough against this SMU defense. It's

558
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,239
Speaker 2: still trying to gel and getting gout. No, forty five

559
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 2: cent forty does not work. That would be bad. It's

560
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 2: gonna be fifty four to seventeen. That'll hit it. I

561
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 2: like this game to go over. I don't think the

562
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: clock rules affect as much. So give me SMU Lawtech

563
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 2: over sixty five and a half.

564
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 1: I think you're making, you know, coaching points on the

565
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 1: Purdue Fresno game having a slower pace and the clock

566
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 1: rules eighting and under, and in this case these teams, well,

567
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 1: I mean SMU already wants to play at a lightning

568
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 1: base a little bit. If game flow wise La Teck

569
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 1: is behind, they're gonna play with a bit more urgency.

570
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 3: Before we go any further. As a reminder, Big Bets

571
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579
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581
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587
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588
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589
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590
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593
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598
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603
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Speaker 1: All right, just a reminder to our audience. You're listening

604
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: into the BBOC. This is a group of five deep dive.

605
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: What we ask of you, dear audience member, is please

606
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: check us out on YouTube as well, subscribe comments go

607
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 1: through subscribe on your podcast feeds, comment as well, because

608
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: we are going to give away some swag and merch

609
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 1: to our favorite five star reviews throughout the season, so

610
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 1: please do that. It really does help us in the

611
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 1: overall rankings and the reach we want to get into

612
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 1: as many households as possible.

613
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 2: Here.

614
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 1: You know, the Action Network is growing, and you're a

615
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 1: big part of it all. Right back to the round

616
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 1: robin here, Ucla laying fourteen and a half versus Coastal Carolina.

617
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 1: This could be the first one that you disagree on,

618
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 1: and I'm just going to get the negatives out of

619
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,439
Speaker 1: the way right away. There's clear drawbacks.

620
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 2: It's Chase Garver's the negative. It's Chase garber is the negative.

621
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: Hold on here. The drawbacks are clear that there is

622
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 1: zero home field advantage in Pasadena. Ucla is seven and

623
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: eleven as a home favorite. Under Chip Kelly, they're rotating

624
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: three quarterbacks. I know that Garber's is listed as a starter,

625
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 1: but Kelly has been clear he wants to play Shli,

626
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 1: he wants to play Dante More. I would be worried

627
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: about this if it wasn't for the fact that Colin

628
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: Wilson laid this out perfectly during the PAC twelve preview.

629
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: Ryan Gunderson was able to take dtr from an ineffective

630
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,719
Speaker 1: player who was boom or bust, really coached him up,

631
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 1: turned him into an All Conference kind of player. And

632
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: I think in this game, particularly if they get to More,

633
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,479
Speaker 1: who everyone's been raving about his accuracy, I think they

634
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 1: could lay it on a Coast of Carolina defense. That's

635
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 1: pretty lousy. But let me continue to go down some

636
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: of the reasons why this number is not twenty and

637
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 1: a half and is sitting here at fourteen and a half.

638
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: UCLA only returns thirty nine point four percent of their

639
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 1: line starts, but they're anchored by Duke Clemens at center,

640
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: who started twenty one straight games. They also have some

641
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 1: interesting talent on the offensive line. And really, this is

642
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 1: where I start to flip over to the defense and

643
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 1: why I start to get fired up about this. I

644
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 1: know how I'm going to reel you back in. Ianello

645
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: Danton Lynn defensive coordinator, former Penn Stater, spent just about

646
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 1: ten years in the NFL. And then when you look

647
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 1: at what the Ravens have done in terms of assistance

648
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 1: being plucked from their staff going to the college level,

649
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: every single defense gets better. You saw what happened at Michigan.

650
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 1: It was night and day once they got some Ravens

651
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 1: coaches in there. I love the potential for this defense

652
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 1: to be better, certainly better as pass rushers. They get

653
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: the Murphy brothers. They killed it in the portal. They

654
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: were tenth overall and portal rankings one that was super underrated,

655
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 1: but not for you know, two guys like us who

656
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: watched so much MAC football. Jordan Anderson was one of

657
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 1: the best defenders in the entire MAC. They get him

658
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 1: at safety, a four star, as he's raided in the

659
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 1: transfer portal. They also get Carson Steele bringing his alligator

660
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: in from Munsey, Indiana. He comes from Ball State. And

661
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 1: then when I'm up against I know that the musical

662
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: chairs a quarterback's going to scare people away. I think

663
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 1: they're going to be explosive because it's Coastal Carolina defense

664
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 1: is they're just so bad. One hundred and ninth in

665
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 1: scoring last year, one hundred and thirteenth against the pass,

666
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 1: and that was with a top twenty five pass rush.

667
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: Josiah Stewart is gone. His sixteen career sacks are off

668
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 1: to Michigan, negative three in the net tarp On defense,

669
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 1: new staff overall, new DC. I just kept thinking to myself, like, yeah,

670
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 1: but like what if Grayson McCall goes for three hundred

671
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 1: yards in this game. What if he has three or

672
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 1: four touchdowns? Even with McCall bawling out against Troy and

673
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 1: Old Dominion down the stretch. Last year, they lose forty

674
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: five twenty six to Troy, and they lose forty nine

675
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: to twenty one to Old Dominion. Kid doesn't play defense.

676
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 1: He is an all timer. He'll always be in my heart.

677
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 1: I love what he's done for the game of college football.

678
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 1: I'm not even being facetious here, like the fact that

679
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: he turned Coastal Carolina into a name brand is amazing.

680
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 1: This defense gave a fifty three fricking points in the

681
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: bowl game. This defense sucks, and I have no problem

682
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 1: watching UCLA run around, run through, run over them in

683
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 1: this game. I think, you know, the travel also isn't

684
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 1: great going cross country. I know they're gonna be playing

685
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: in front of, like, you know, seventy five hundred fans.

686
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: Doesn't matter to me. I'm gonna lay the points. My

687
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 1: numbers call for this to be closer to twenty, and

688
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 1: I'm getting it at fourteen and a half. Shop around,

689
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: you may be able to, you know, squeeze the number

690
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 1: right a kickoff at fourteen obviously there'd be extra value there,

691
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 1: but I'm adding that to.

692
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 2: The round robin. Yeah. First of all, I do, like

693
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 2: you said, oh, if Grayson throws for three yards, us.

694
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 2: He's used to that. That's kind of how they play

695
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 2: all their games in the back twelve our shootouts like that.

696
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 2: They're used to, you know, playing games like that where

697
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 2: Coastal is really not in the Sumbolt I you said

698
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 2: at the top. If they came out and said Dante

699
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 2: More as our guy, he's QB one, he's starting, I'd

700
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 2: be on the with you. I'd be hammering it. I'm

701
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 2: probably would climb. I don't like Garber's. I think Collin

702
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 2: Schley stinks. I hope he doesn't take a snap. I'm

703
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 2: not totally disagreeing with you, because if they're gonna rotate them,

704
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 2: and you know, More's the best and gets to play

705
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 2: the whole second half, then yeah, I think they pull

706
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 2: away and they win. I have a UCLA future to

707
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: reach the PAC twelf Championship at like plus six hundred,

708
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 2: mostly because I love More. I think he's going to

709
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 2: be a stud I love zacher Stan. I think he's

710
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 2: gonna be good early. I don't like the other two though,

711
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 2: so the fact that he's starting Garber's I don't like it.

712
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 2: So I'm staying away from that aspect, but I'll be rooting.

713
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 2: I may lie I bet this as soon as Dante

714
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 2: Moore comes in. So I'm not totally against you, but

715
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 2: I'm not taking it.

716
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 1: All right, need back to back from you to wrap

717
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 1: up the round robin here in week one, I'm.

718
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:50,959
Speaker 3: Going with one.

719
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 2: I'm very curious if you're gonna be on board with me.

720
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: Here two teams we both love. I'm taking South Alabama

721
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 2: plus seven this next fighting game, this sighting game, is

722
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 2: South Albama the favorite in the Sunbell or is Troy

723
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 2: still the favorite?

724
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 1: I believe they just edged ahead. It's more or less

725
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 1: a coin flip.

726
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: So you got the favorite of the Sunbelt against the

727
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: favorite in the American South Alabama was ten and three

728
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 2: last year and they lost to UCLA by one. That

729
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 2: dtr Ucla at the Rose Bowl. They lost to Troy

730
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 2: by four. They lost to Western Kentucky in the bowl game.

731
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: That was it.

732
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 2: This offense hummed under Carter Bradley. They were twenty sixth

733
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 2: and passing success rate. They returned their top two leading receivers.

734
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 2: They have a loaded tight end room running back with

735
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 2: Damian Webb was all conference. He had over one thousand

736
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 2: yards thirteen scores for the five offensive linemen are back

737
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 2: and We talked about it in the previous show. Tu

738
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:48,959
Speaker 2: lane just loses a boatload on defense. And it's not like, oh,

739
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 2: g five guys they have, you know, twelve guys graduate

740
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 2: because they're thirty. No, they lost like four guys to

741
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 2: the NFL. Thoran Williams, making Clark J. Kennedy transferred to

742
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 2: Ole Miss Larry Brooks is gone. I think Nick Anderson's

743
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 2: in the NFL. They have just three starters back on defense.

744
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 1: So I this is just the wave my arms here.

745
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 1: This is the greatest two lane team of all time

746
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 1: that just played last year, and a huge portion of

747
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 1: it's gone, Like it only makes sense that there'd be

748
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 1: at least a little bit of a dip. And here

749
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 1: comes a sun Belt favorite. It's not like, you know

750
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 1: some team that needs everything to go right to beat him.

751
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:24,359
Speaker 1: So I'm with you so far.

752
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 2: Keep some team returning basically their entire offense against this

753
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 2: new revamped defense. Michael Pratt's back. We love Michael Pratt.

754
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 2: You will hear no Michael Pratt slander out of these mouths.

755
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 2: But Tajay Spears is gone, and he was so good

756
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 2: for them down the stretch. Their top two receivers are gone.

757
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 2: Pratt is going to need to do it all in

758
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 2: this game, and while he might, this Jaguars defense was fantastic.

759
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 2: They were twenty six in the country in success rate

760
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:55,319
Speaker 2: both against the run and the pass. They were third

761
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 2: in the country and rushing yards per game they were

762
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,839
Speaker 2: defending the rush. They returned their entire defensive line, all

763
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 2: their linebackers, all their secondary except two guys. One of

764
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 2: those new starters missed all of last season with an injury.

765
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,359
Speaker 2: He was second team All Conference in twenty twenty one,

766
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 2: so they basically have one new starter on a defense

767
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 2: that was top twenty six in the country. I just

768
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,439
Speaker 2: like with South alabamam as more. I'm gonna be honest

769
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 2: with you, I almost picked them as my underdog parlay pick.

770
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:26,920
Speaker 2: I think they win the game, and I'll certainly take

771
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 2: the touchdown. I didn't make them my underdog just out

772
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 2: of respect for Michael Pratt, Willie Fritz and this two

773
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:36,720
Speaker 2: lane team. But they just have so many pieces to replace.

774
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 2: I think losing Spears is gonna be a huge problem,

775
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 2: and I love what South Alabama has and what they're

776
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 2: bringing back. So, like I said, I think they win

777
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:46,720
Speaker 2: the game, and I'm certainly gonna take a touchdown.

778
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 1: Yeah. In terms of what you would play it down

779
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: to as a part of this round robin, were you

780
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 1: comfortable five and a half? Six somewhere? Yeah?

781
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 2: Six probably. I mean, like I said, I think they win,

782
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: so but you know, I think it will be a

783
00:35:58,000 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 2: good game, so I'll take it down to six.

784
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:02,360
Speaker 1: All right. Here in week one, you're doing the heavy lifting.

785
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 1: Three of the five round robin picks. What's the last one?

786
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 2: I screwed this up. I should have flipped my order.

787
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 2: I don't want to end on the negative note. I

788
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 2: think Wisconsin absolutely pumps Buffalo minus twenty seven and a half.

789
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: I think went my four plus touchdowns. We mentioned the

790
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 2: motivation for Oklahoma with the hot seat. I think Luke

791
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 2: Fickel has a lot to prove because he's turned down

792
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 2: a lot of jobs. He has stayed in the G

793
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 2: five for a long time after failing as the interim

794
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 2: coach at Ohio State. I think he has a statement

795
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 2: to make. I think Luke fickeo wants to say I'm here,

796
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 2: this is the new Wisconsin team. Got a new OC

797
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 2: in Philongo quarterback Tanner Mordecai. Another one I think has

798
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 2: to flexus muscles. Morkai was a highly rated recruit, couldn't

799
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 2: win the job at Oklahoma, drop down to the G

800
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 2: five lit up SMU for two years. He threw for

801
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:52,360
Speaker 2: over seven thousand yards and seventy two touchdowns in two years.

802
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 2: I think he has a lot to prove or like, hey,

803
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 2: I can compete at this level. Brayln Allen might be

804
00:36:58,760 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 2: the best running back in the country.

805
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 1: You know.

806
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 2: If he's not, he's certainly in the conversation he's I

807
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 2: think unarguably top five.

808
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 1: I mean certainly running into six man boxes instead of

809
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 1: nine man boxes this season, he's got a benefit.

810
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 2: Of which it was going to be night and day

811
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: for him in this offense.

812
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: And everyone thinks that the minds featuring a running back

813
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 1: if he's really good, or a pair of running backs.

814
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 2: So yeah, everyone thinks back, you know, thanks, Drake may

815
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 2: throw the ball around like he had two thousand yard

816
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 2: rushers with Javonte Williams and Michael Carter. So I either

817
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:27,919
Speaker 2: going to run the ball. It's still Wisconsin. They still

818
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 2: got the big hog, Molly's up front. They're gonna run

819
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 2: the ball with braylun and Mordecai is seven times the

820
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 2: quarterback that Graham Mertz his so and I'm just not

821
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 2: hying this Buffalo team. I don't think col Sneyder is

822
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 2: very good. They have no weapons. Their most experienced receiver

823
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 2: caught seventeen passes last year. They were one hundred and

824
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 2: thirtieth at preventing explosiveness last year. They give up a

825
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 2: ton of big plays. And you know, again, you don't

826
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 2: think of Wisconsin as this explosive offense. They were eighty

827
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 2: second and explosive in this last year. Well, North Carolina

828
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 2: was thirty first and Cincinnati was thirty So you have

829
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 2: to kind of shed this notion of like, oh, it's Wisconsin,

830
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 2: They're going to stack the box two tight ends. No,

831
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 2: they're gonna score. And I think if I think this

832
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:10,840
Speaker 2: goes back to the motivation, I think if they want to,

833
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 2: Wisconsin can absolutely truck them. So I'm gonna late the

834
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 2: number and hope they choose to keep their foot on

835
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 2: the gas.

836
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:19,919
Speaker 1: I'm certainly not on the other side of this bet

837
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 1: from you. I can't talk myself into Buffalo scoring enough

838
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 1: points to prevent a runaway in this game. However, this

839
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 1: is a wait and see for me purely because of

840
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: what Fickle did with his best team at Cincinnati. You

841
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,240
Speaker 1: saw him keep the governor on the offense at times,

842
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 1: and that's with an NFL quarterback and ritter and then

843
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 1: also all these like excellent pieces, like they had the

844
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,959
Speaker 1: Alabama transfer running back. They were dynamic when they wanted

845
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 1: to be in the past game, but like he was

846
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 1: almost playing NFL style where it's like if we went

847
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,400
Speaker 1: by ten, that's great, Like I just want to get

848
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 1: out of here with a w I want to see

849
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 1: him turn it over to long ago and be like

850
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: we got to start slashing some roads here in the

851
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 1: big ten and like make a statement right away. So

852
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 1: that's why maybe it's like a live better situation. I

853
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: want to see the very first drive, the run pass,

854
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: you know, the tempo, all of it, unless see how

855
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 1: it all fits together. But I can't really make an

856
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 1: argument against fading Buffalo.

857
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 2: We got the point that is. The only concern is

858
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 2: Fickle can be frustrating sometimes. Really he almost looks like

859
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 2: he's not trying, which is kind of my fear. But

860
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 2: like I said, I think if they try, like how

861
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 2: much they Buffalo scores, Like I think if they try,

862
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 2: Wisconsin wins just like forty two to seven. It's just like,

863
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 2: are they up twenty eight to nothing and fickle like

864
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:28,959
Speaker 2: doesn't throw another pass.

865
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 1: I think you're just flexing your math on the fly.

866
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 1: Now you're like, that definitely comes forty two to seven.

867
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:34,240
Speaker 1: That is a winner, baby.

868
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 2: I pulled out my calculator.

869
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: Speaking of winners, the underdog money line parlay. Every single week,

870
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 1: we're gonna put together two hopefully get a huge winner

871
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:47,800
Speaker 1: for you parlaying them together. Last year we took some

872
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 1: big shots, some big swings. We won't get into our

873
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 1: batting average. But this year, I'm gonna start with the team.

874
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 1: If I was hammering on UCLA for not having a

875
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: home field advantage, how about Temple. I grew up in Philadelphia.

876
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 1: I still live in the Phillies uburbs. They'll be like

877
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: ten twelve thousand people of this game.

878
00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 2: You know at the week out you want to go.

879
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: I think I think there's a chance that we may

880
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:09,840
Speaker 1: need to go because you know we're zipped up. Maybe

881
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 1: you know Akron is our team this year in the MAC.

882
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:15,359
Speaker 1: We love Joemo. They're plus three ten on the money

883
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 1: line in this game, and I think that's too generous.

884
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: I think this line should be closer to like, you know,

885
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 1: four and a half, five and set it's ten, and

886
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:25,280
Speaker 1: I'll just run through all things I like about Akron.

887
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 1: They return over seventy percent of their line starts. They

888
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 1: got a quarterback and Dj Irons who had plenty of

889
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 1: explosive games last year at three games with over three

890
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 1: and yards passing, ran for one hundred yards against Bowling Green,

891
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:37,879
Speaker 1: who was a Bowl team. At running back, they bring

892
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 1: in Lorenzo Lingard from the Portal, former Gatoray Player of

893
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: the Year in the State of Florida at running back,

894
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:47,439
Speaker 1: Alex Adams at wide receiver, a former LSU transfer. There's

895
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 1: just talent everywhere. It's the same question that I have

896
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 1: with Colorado State, which is your offensive line was absolute

897
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 1: trash last year. Can you go from an F to

898
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,320
Speaker 1: a C C minus? Can you give this kid some

899
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 1: time to operate? Because when you look at how close

900
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 1: they were for a team that went two to ten

901
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 1: last year, their record was just littered with single possession losses.

902
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 1: Touchdown is Central Michigan six points to Kent six points

903
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 1: to Eastern Michigan one at Buffalo at the end of

904
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 1: the year, I know is a very meaningful game for

905
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:15,840
Speaker 1: a lot of us who had the over on the

906
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: Akron win total. I just I really think this offense

907
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 1: is primed to go against a Temple defense that was

908
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 1: by no means world beaters. They were ninety fifth and

909
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 1: scoring D seventy seventh in total D one hundred and

910
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 1: twelfth against the run. We know what Akron wants to

911
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 1: do in the Joe Moo system. They want to go fast,

912
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: They want to get those you know, linebackers with their

913
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 1: hands on their hips, tired, mid drive, missing some tackles. Now,

914
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 1: Temple was disruptive. They were twenty eighth and TFLs and

915
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 1: I think that's really where the offensive line improvements are

916
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 1: going to mean so much here for Akron, because that

917
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 1: they can get a little bit better and keep them

918
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 1: out of their backfield, stay ahead of the sticks. I

919
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 1: think this is an opportunity for them to score you know,

920
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 1: high twenties, maybe thirties in this game, and they're probably

921
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 1: going to need to do so. You know, Warnerson is

922
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 1: a solid quarterback. He certainly was one of the few

923
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: freshmen at the G five level who really shined last year.

924
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:03,880
Speaker 1: They threw him into the fire and I think he

925
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 1: impressed me. But overall, they just should not. I think

926
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 1: this is just miss briced. I don't think Temple should

927
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 1: be a ten point favorite. They certainly shouldn't be given

928
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 1: away plus three hundred tickets to anybody else at the

929
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 1: FBS level. And the final piece of it is the

930
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:20,319
Speaker 1: turnover regression. Let's go back to the mean. Last year

931
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 1: they were two and ten straight up with a negative

932
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 1: one point three per game turnover margin. That was one

933
00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty seventh in the country. Few fumbles bounces

934
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,359
Speaker 1: their way. I could see the Zips winning this game

935
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 1: out right. I'm rolling the dice right away.

936
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:33,800
Speaker 2: Overall the card.

937
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:35,880
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of teams in that like

938
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: six to ten point window that we're intriguing. I don't

939
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:41,400
Speaker 1: want to steal your thunder like Toledo had my attention

940
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,239
Speaker 1: as well. You had teams like NIU going up to

941
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 1: Chestnut Hill close to a ten point underdog there. But

942
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 1: for me, it's achron because I think they had the

943
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 1: highest stealing of any dog this week. If their offense clicks,

944
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 1: they're going to score in the thirties. I think they'll

945
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 1: beat the Als.

946
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, we may have the ow them and route this on.

947
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,800
Speaker 2: We each took a Power five team to obliterate a

948
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 2: G five team. But we are the G five boys.

949
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 2: We got a ride with our guys. I'm going with

950
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 2: the G five home power five upset. And by the way,

951
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 2: I just put it in the calculator. Ten fifty is

952
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 2: our payout this week. Give me North Texas plus two twenty.

953
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,400
Speaker 2: I don't think Cal's very good, and that kind of

954
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 2: is as simple as it is is. I just don't

955
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 2: think Cayl's very good. You know, they won Cal last year,

956
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 2: won twenty to fourteen against the UNLV team that lost

957
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 2: by thirty to North Texas. The very next week, they

958
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 2: brought in Jake Spavito as their OC, who we remember

959
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 2: finally from Texas State, and he was not very good.

960
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 2: I did not like what they did at all. Sam

961
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 2: Jackson is the new quarterback at CAL. Sure he had

962
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 2: electric moments with his legs at TCU. Can he throw

963
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 2: the ball?

964
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 1: I don't know.

965
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 2: When you think of Justin Wilcox, do you think defense

966
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,239
Speaker 2: Cayl is one hundred and thirtieth in the country and

967
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 2: defensive success rate last year they were trash. They create

968
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 2: no havoc. They can't tackle. They got torched through the air.

969
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 2: By the way, One of those teams that torched them

970
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 2: through the air was Washington State. Cam Ward through for

971
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 2: three hundred and forty three yards and three touchdowns. We

972
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 2: mentioned earlier, I don't think cam Ward's that good. He

973
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 2: torched Coyle's defense.

974
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 1: Well.

975
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,800
Speaker 2: Now, the Cougar's offensive corder at the time, Eric Morris,

976
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 2: is the new head coach at Texas State. They're gonna

977
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 2: throw the ball a lot more, or North Texas at

978
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 2: North Texas, they're gonna throw the ball a lot more.

979
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 2: The quarterback for North Texas is Stone Earl. Based on

980
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,320
Speaker 2: his name alone, I'm I mean he is a stud.

981
00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 2: His name is Stone Earl. You don't think this dude's

982
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 2: gonna come in here and sling the rock. They also

983
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 2: have Chandler Rodgers, who they're both expected to play rogers

984
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 2: we remember from Ulm. Pretty goose legs. You know if

985
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 2: he passer. But again, you don't think Stone Earl you're

986
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 2: gonna come in here and pull the upset off. Three

987
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 2: headed studs at running back. Still don't know how they

988
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 2: kept them all. Oscar Hadaway aod I Kayi Ragsdale, Isaiah

989
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 2: Osea Johnson the fourth of them. They're listed the class

990
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 2: sick four way or or at running back. But they

991
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:03,880
Speaker 2: should put all four of me on the field to

992
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 2: start the game. Just an absolute cheese wedge. Give one

993
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 2: of them a ball and just pullow through this Cal defense.

994
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 2: They'll win this game handily. The defense is s wushing

995
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 2: two a three to three five scheme, so you kind

996
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 2: of don't know that you're to expect from the defense.

997
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 2: But they have some studs in their secondary rich The

998
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:22,239
Speaker 2: hot is sick Logan Wilson's a really good safety. If

999
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 2: this Cal defense is as bad as it was last year,

1000
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 2: North Texas can absolutely win this game at home. North

1001
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 2: Texas is twenty five and eleven at home since twenty seventeen,

1002
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 2: sixty nine percent win rate. Very nice, and again to

1003
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 2: do their quarterbacks name is Stone Earl. You don't think

1004
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 2: this dude's ready to pull off an upset, So I

1005
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 2: just don't think Cal's are very good. So give me

1006
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 2: a G five team at home against a pretty bad

1007
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 2: power five team at plus two to twenty, and when

1008
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 2: we paralyse together, it is a ten to fifty payout.

1009
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 1: You hit two Stone quarterbacks in one.

1010
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 2: After, it is a Stone age.

1011
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 1: I must be really stoned, guys. I love it. I

1012
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 1: am to put one little caveat from a live betting perspective,

1013
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 1: I think if Akron falls down by seven to ten

1014
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:08,359
Speaker 1: points the Joe Moo offense, it's momentum based. You can

1015
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 1: see it when they start clicking and that Reid option

1016
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 1: is really working and they're you know, tagging on the

1017
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 1: RPO stuff and all of a sudden, you know, they

1018
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 1: hit three or four big plays, boom touchdown. In the

1019
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,440
Speaker 1: North Texas col game, I think because the only element

1020
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:23,919
Speaker 1: of the entire Cal team that scares me is Sam

1021
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 1: Jackson as a runner and Jayden Ott as a runner together,

1022
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 1: whether they're running option together, they're running read, you know,

1023
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 1: the mesh, all those things. If they are allowed to

1024
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 1: run the ball and not have to abandon it because

1025
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,319
Speaker 1: they're playing from behind, I think they're gonna be able

1026
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 1: to move the football a little bit. You know, losing

1027
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,280
Speaker 1: Katie Shark Davis from the middle of that North Texas

1028
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: defense hurts. But to your point, if they fall down

1029
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 1: early and they have to start throwing the ball into

1030
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 1: one of the most seasoned G five pass defenses, like

1031
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 1: I think this is a really nice spot.

1032
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 2: And you allow North Texas to just run the ball

1033
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 2: with those four backs down their throw. That's what I'm saying.

1034
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't date this that it was on the road,

1035
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 2: but the whole home crowd can get North Texas up early,

1036
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:04,799
Speaker 2: and then you mentioned it, then it just plays right

1037
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 2: in their favor. Make him throw, let that North Texas

1038
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 2: run the ball. Thanks, got a chance. I don't think

1039
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 2: he's very good. I have a here's here's a good

1040
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:15,240
Speaker 2: question for you. Here's a good handicap between Preston Stone

1041
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 2: and Stone Earl having money on both of them. How

1042
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:20,439
Speaker 2: many times do I tweet a bam bam gift this week?

1043
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,320
Speaker 2: Because we are fully in stone age.

1044
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 1: And so turn up Brock.

1045
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:33,320
Speaker 2: His story.

1046
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:37,399
Speaker 1: Certainly not enough. I mean, this is what we need

1047
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:39,839
Speaker 1: after you know, the Diego Pavia. I had a sound

1048
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 1: drop ready to go for him die you know he

1049
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:46,280
Speaker 1: did not. He did not come to play until garbage

1050
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 1: time of that game against UMass. So we need to

1051
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:51,799
Speaker 1: get some uh some new swag and some some good,

1052
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 1: some good vibes going for for this week here in

1053
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 1: week one, all right, I'm gonna run through my card

1054
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 1: real quick. Colorado State plus twelve hosting Wazoo and the

1055
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:02,759
Speaker 1: G five team hosting there at Kanpus Stadium for my

1056
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,399
Speaker 1: best bet for my round robin editions, I got ou

1057
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,840
Speaker 1: lay thirty five against the dead corpse of Butched Jones.

1058
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:11,799
Speaker 1: And then for my second edition to the round robin,

1059
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 1: UCLA laying fourteen and a half against Grayson McCall and

1060
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 1: the Shants, and then my upset Akron plus three ten

1061
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:20,359
Speaker 1: against Temple. All right, I L could you run our

1062
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 1: audience through your card real quick?

1063
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, Fresno State at Perdu under forty eight and a half,

1064
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 2: LA Tech SMU over sixty five and a half. South

1065
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 2: Alabama plus seven against Sulane like that down in about six,

1066
00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 2: Wisconsin minus twenty seven and a half against Buffalo like

1067
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,760
Speaker 2: that anything under four touchdowns, and then North Texas plus

1068
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:45,800
Speaker 2: two twenty pull off the upset at home against.

1069
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 1: Cal for Mike Ainello on Mike Calabreys. This has been

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Speaker 1: another edition of BBOC The Group of Five Deep Dive.

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Speaker 1: Please listen and subscribe over on YouTube as well as

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Speaker 1: your podcast feed, and a programming reminder that you'll be

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Speaker 1: able to catch Colin and Stuck for the full week

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Speaker 1: one preview. It's going to come a day early because

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00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 1: games are starting on Thursday, so that's going to drop

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00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 1: Thursday morning to get you prepared, and the debut of

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Speaker 1: the live show on Saturday, getting all of the latest

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00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 1: line movement, injury intrigue, quarterback battles that are sorting themselves

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Speaker 1: out in the final week leading up to the start

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Speaker 1: of the season. We're going to have it all for

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Speaker 1: you on Saturday. You can check that out over on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: Will also be streaming it on Twitter or x as

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Speaker 1: they're calling it these days, so please be sure to

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Speaker 1: check that out as well. Thank you so much for

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00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 1: listening and hopefully we can get you off to a

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00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 1: great start to your college of all season.

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Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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