Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Hey, earlier this morning. This is something we've been talking
Speaker 2: about a lot here at Bloomberg. What's been going on
Speaker 2: in the NATO summit comments by President Trump. President Trump
Speaker 2: and President Vladimir Zolenski of Ukraine had a short and
Speaker 2: what was described as spontaneous meeting at the NATO summit
Speaker 2: in Turkey, and we are assuming they talked about this
Speaker 2: more than four year old war between the two, but
Speaker 2: we don't know for sure. The tune then met a
Speaker 2: joint gathering with reporters. The President said he will allow
Speaker 2: Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missile interceptor sending another signal of
Speaker 2: his shifting approach toward Russia's war.
Speaker 3: Just a little birdie told me this about the fact
Speaker 3: that we'll give them the right to make patriots, will
Speaker 3: show them how to do it. It's very complex, actually, but
Speaker 3: it's you'll figure out the complexity quickly. So one of
Speaker 3: the things we're going to be talking about is you'll
Speaker 3: we're going to give a license to you to make patriots.
Speaker 4: That's pretty cool, right this way.
Speaker 3: You can't complain that we're not giving them enough. Make
Speaker 3: him yourself, all right?
Speaker 2: That of course, as President Trump earlier from the NATO
Speaker 2: summit in Turkey. Hey, great to have back with us.
Speaker 2: We did want to talk to Angela Stent about where
Speaker 2: we are in this war between Ukraine and Russia. She's
Speaker 2: a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, author of
Speaker 2: Putin's World, Russia Against the West and With the Rest.
Speaker 2: Former National Intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the
Speaker 2: National Intelligence Council. She served in the Office of Policy
Speaker 2: Planning at the US Department of State, and she joins
Speaker 2: us from Nantucket on this Wednesday. Angela, it is good
Speaker 2: to have you here with Bailey and me. I'm kind
Speaker 2: of shocked. We are all shocked that we're still talking
Speaker 2: about this war, despite all the destruction, the deaths, the
Speaker 2: global impact. Why are these two countries back at war?
Speaker 2: Are still at war.
Speaker 4: Because Vladimir Putin still believes he can win the war.
Speaker 4: Even though the tide, if it hasn't resolutely turned, it
Speaker 4: certainly turning in Ukraine's favor with all of the drones
Speaker 4: that they're using their strikes into Russia. But Putin still
Speaker 4: believes he can wear the Ukrainians down, and we've seen
Speaker 4: that with these massive barrage of ballistic missile attacks on
Speaker 4: Kievan other cities, so escalating from the Russian point of view,
Speaker 4: that's why the war's going on. I mean, President Zelenski
Speaker 4: would be willing to agree to a cease fire and
Speaker 4: then obviously more negotiations on how this comes to an end.
Speaker 4: But it's Putin that's keeping it going well.
Speaker 1: Angela. On that note, is it all optics and ego
Speaker 1: that Putin can't walk back or live with the view
Speaker 1: that forever we would remember they weren't successful in this war.
Speaker 4: So he's now stated this. He thinks that not only
Speaker 4: is his regime survival dependent on winning this war, but
Speaker 4: his own personal survival. This is how he's defined it.
Speaker 4: As far as we understand, it's quite possible that the
Speaker 4: people around him this is an or very authoritarian country,
Speaker 4: are giving him the news that he wants to hear.
Speaker 4: He may not fully understand what's happening on the battlefield
Speaker 4: in Ukraine, but he is just digging his heels in
Speaker 4: and he's presenting it to his population that this is
Speaker 4: just like World War Two, and just like we beat
Speaker 4: the Nazis, we're going to beat the Nazi Ukrainians.
Speaker 2: How stressed are the people though in Russia and economically
Speaker 2: because of this warrant? Does that really matter to President Putin?
Speaker 4: Well, so, they are feeling the stress much more. There
Speaker 4: are gasoline shortages in Russia, which is the third largest
Speaker 4: producer of oil in the world. There are food shortages,
Speaker 4: for instance, in Crimea, where the Ukrainians have been hitting
Speaker 4: very hard. People are trying to leave the island now
Speaker 4: because they just can't survive on what they have. People
Speaker 4: are feeling it, but it's very hard to convey this
Speaker 4: or for this to have an actual impact on what
Speaker 4: the Kremlin does, because whenever you try and criticize it,
Speaker 4: at least publicly, or you protest publicly, you can be arrested,
Speaker 4: you can be jailed. There is somewhat more kind of
Speaker 4: nuanced criticism that one hears about, well, maybe it's really
Speaker 4: time to end the war, also from the business community,
Speaker 4: never criticizing, of course the president himself. But it's very
Speaker 4: hard to make an impression on the Crumblin itself, just
Speaker 4: because there's more grumbling among the population.
Speaker 1: And Trump saying that Zelenski has done an amazing job,
Speaker 1: which is quite a turn from where the two's relationship
Speaker 1: had been what does that mean for Russia if Trump
Speaker 1: seemingly is fully in Ukraine's corner, and what are the
Speaker 1: other countries around the world thinking about and how has
Speaker 1: that evolved?
Speaker 4: So I think the Russians understand that Trump isn't fully
Speaker 4: in Ukraine's corner. I mean, he had a long telephone
Speaker 4: conversation with Putin just before the NATO summit, and he
Speaker 4: came away from that saying, yes, well, Putin really wants peace.
Speaker 4: But what's really changes that Trump understands now, you know,
Speaker 4: having told Zelenski in that awful Oval Office meeting in
Speaker 4: February of twenty twenty five, you have no card. He
Speaker 4: sees that Ukraine looks like a winner, that it has cards,
Speaker 4: that the Ukrainians are really fighting back, and I think
Speaker 4: that's really impressed him, and that's why he's been willing
Speaker 4: to say that Ukraine can get the licenses for manufacturing
Speaker 4: Patriot air batteries air defenses, although we have to be
Speaker 4: very cautious this is going to take quite a long time.
Speaker 4: They have to sign the agreements with the US companies
Speaker 4: and things like that. But again, that is a major reversal.
Speaker 4: So I think he appreciates winners, and he appreciates that,
Speaker 4: whatever he really thinks of Ukraine and President Zelenski, that
Speaker 4: the Ukrainians have done a pretty impressive job of innovating
Speaker 4: and fighting back.
Speaker 1: Well, you make the great point that this isn't something
Speaker 1: you just flip a switch and then Patriot missiles are
Speaker 1: rolling off of a machine line and being put to use.
Speaker 1: How does that lag by itself impact what kind of
Speaker 1: comes next in the timing from the Ukraine perspective.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so, I think in the immediate, really short term future,
Speaker 4: Ukraine is still in a very difficult position because Russia
Speaker 4: is increasingly using these ballistic missiles and Ukraine just doesn't
Speaker 4: have the air defenses to counter these ballistic missiles. And
Speaker 4: we saw that in the most recent strikes on Kiv
Speaker 4: when more people were killed. So Ukraine desperately really needs
Speaker 4: these Patriot batteries. The US doesn't have many of them
Speaker 4: because it's been using them in the war against Iran.
Speaker 4: The Europeans don't have that many, and they really purchase
Speaker 4: them from the US. So it's not going to help
Speaker 4: Ukraine in the short run, but in the longer run,
Speaker 4: if the licensees were granted and if they can really
Speaker 4: produce these Patriot batteries rather quickly. It could help them
Speaker 4: going forward, let's say next year.
Speaker 2: Angela, I always do think about you know, certainly Russia,
Speaker 2: but I also think of it in this war, in
Speaker 2: particular against Ukraine. But I also think of it in
Speaker 2: the context of the access of Russia or on China.
Speaker 2: You can throw in North Korea there as well. Is
Speaker 2: that important to kind of keep in mind as we
Speaker 2: watch this war between Russia and Ukraine specifically, Yes.
Speaker 4: I think it's very important. I mean, we have to
Speaker 4: remember that without China at Putin, probably wouldn't still be
Speaker 4: in this war. Because the Chinese have been buying either
Speaker 4: Russian oil, They've been supplying the Russians with all kinds
Speaker 4: of technology and components. They haven't actually sold them weapons
Speaker 4: as far as we know, at least in the public,
Speaker 4: but they certainly provide them with the components for the weaponry,
Speaker 4: and they don't want to see Russia lose this war.
Speaker 4: North Koreans, of course have supplied them with ammunition. They
Speaker 4: have supplied them with soldiers who were fighting and who
Speaker 4: are still fighting with the Russian forces. And the Iranians
Speaker 4: were very important in the beginning in supplying Russia with
Speaker 4: the Shah drones. By now, the Russians have perfected those drones,
Speaker 4: and in fact they've supplied around with the more modern
Speaker 4: drones in its current war with the United States. But
Speaker 4: this group of countries, these three curreties are very important
Speaker 4: to Russia, China being the most important in terms of
Speaker 4: its ability to continue waging this war.
Speaker 2: How important is President Trump and all of this, like,
Speaker 2: it's hard to gauge, you know, friendly to President's landscape
Speaker 2: seemed today, but also talks about how much he talks
Speaker 2: to President Putin. I'm never quite sure, you know, keep
Speaker 2: your friends close, keep your enemies closer. I don't know
Speaker 2: how to read it anymore. But how important is President
Speaker 2: Trump in perhaps putting pressure on President Putin?
Speaker 4: I mean, he could put more pressure on President Putin,
Speaker 4: we could have tougher economic sanctions. There is this bill.
Speaker 4: There are several bills in the Senate which a majority
Speaker 4: of the Senator's Republicans and Democrats support, But the Republicans
Speaker 4: are waiting for the go ahead from President Trump to
Speaker 4: sign this legislation. So that would be important. And again,
Speaker 4: if the US were willing to provide Ukraine, maybe via
Speaker 4: the Europeans with more sophisticated weapons, with the Patriot batteries
Speaker 4: with a Tomahawk missiles, then that would put more pressure
Speaker 4: on President Putin. But so far the Trump administration has
Speaker 4: not been willing to apply that pressure, and that is
Speaker 4: why I think President Putin still holds out hope that
Speaker 4: he can still get Trump to pressure Zelenski to give
Speaker 4: up territory, although that doesn't seem likely at the very moment.
Speaker 1: Is there any risk and we've only got about thirty
Speaker 1: seconds here, forty five seconds here? What are the risks
Speaker 1: of contagion when we have the conflict going on in Iran,
Speaker 1: when we have obviously the conflict going on in Ukraine.
Speaker 4: Well, I think one of the risks is will Russia
Speaker 4: try as it escalates to broaden the war and in
Speaker 4: fight attack more indirectly or possibly directly. A NATO member
Speaker 4: state and some of the frontline states believe that this
Speaker 4: could happen. So I think that's something to watch for.
Speaker 2: Okay, I thought I was stressed out before, Now I'm
Speaker 2: even stressed out more. Angela, we appreciate all the time
Speaker 2: you give us. Thank you so much, Angela's and of
Speaker 2: course great to have you back. With US senior fellow
Speaker 2: at the American Enterprise Institute's author of Putin's World, Russia
Speaker 2: Against the West, and with the rest former National Intelligence
Speaker 2: officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council.
Speaker 2: I mean, so we lean on her a lot