WEBVTT - Angela Stent Talks Ukraine/Russia War

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.000
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:07.800 --> 0:00:09.799
<v Speaker 2>Hey, earlier this morning. This is something we've been talking

0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:11.840
<v Speaker 2>about a lot here at Bloomberg. What's been going on

0:00:11.880 --> 0:00:15.120
<v Speaker 2>in the NATO summit comments by President Trump. President Trump

0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:19.040
<v Speaker 2>and President Vladimir Zolenski of Ukraine had a short and

0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:23.160
<v Speaker 2>what was described as spontaneous meeting at the NATO summit

0:00:23.320 --> 0:00:26.400
<v Speaker 2>in Turkey, and we are assuming they talked about this

0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:28.920
<v Speaker 2>more than four year old war between the two, but

0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:31.520
<v Speaker 2>we don't know for sure. The tune then met a

0:00:31.640 --> 0:00:34.640
<v Speaker 2>joint gathering with reporters. The President said he will allow

0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:38.920
<v Speaker 2>Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missile interceptor sending another signal of

0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:41.199
<v Speaker 2>his shifting approach toward Russia's war.

0:00:42.240 --> 0:00:46.400
<v Speaker 3>Just a little birdie told me this about the fact

0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:50.040
<v Speaker 3>that we'll give them the right to make patriots, will

0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:53.159
<v Speaker 3>show them how to do it. It's very complex, actually, but

0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:57.200
<v Speaker 3>it's you'll figure out the complexity quickly. So one of

0:00:57.280 --> 0:00:59.120
<v Speaker 3>the things we're going to be talking about is you'll

0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:02.840
<v Speaker 3>we're going to give a license to you to make patriots.

0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:05.080
<v Speaker 4>That's pretty cool, right this way.

0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:07.479
<v Speaker 3>You can't complain that we're not giving them enough. Make

0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:09.280
<v Speaker 3>him yourself, all right?

0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:11.679
<v Speaker 2>That of course, as President Trump earlier from the NATO

0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:14.320
<v Speaker 2>summit in Turkey. Hey, great to have back with us.

0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:17.800
<v Speaker 2>We did want to talk to Angela Stent about where

0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:20.600
<v Speaker 2>we are in this war between Ukraine and Russia. She's

0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:22.880
<v Speaker 2>a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, author of

0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:25.800
<v Speaker 2>Putin's World, Russia Against the West and With the Rest.

0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:28.920
<v Speaker 2>Former National Intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the

0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:31.560
<v Speaker 2>National Intelligence Council. She served in the Office of Policy

0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:33.840
<v Speaker 2>Planning at the US Department of State, and she joins

0:01:33.920 --> 0:01:36.640
<v Speaker 2>us from Nantucket on this Wednesday. Angela, it is good

0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:39.640
<v Speaker 2>to have you here with Bailey and me. I'm kind

0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:41.880
<v Speaker 2>of shocked. We are all shocked that we're still talking

0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:45.319
<v Speaker 2>about this war, despite all the destruction, the deaths, the

0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:48.440
<v Speaker 2>global impact. Why are these two countries back at war?

0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:49.640
<v Speaker 2>Are still at war.

0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:54.120
<v Speaker 4>Because Vladimir Putin still believes he can win the war.

0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:58.560
<v Speaker 4>Even though the tide, if it hasn't resolutely turned, it

0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:03.200
<v Speaker 4>certainly turning in Ukraine's favor with all of the drones

0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:06.280
<v Speaker 4>that they're using their strikes into Russia. But Putin still

0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:09.200
<v Speaker 4>believes he can wear the Ukrainians down, and we've seen

0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:12.800
<v Speaker 4>that with these massive barrage of ballistic missile attacks on

0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:17.120
<v Speaker 4>Kievan other cities, so escalating from the Russian point of view,

0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:19.880
<v Speaker 4>that's why the war's going on. I mean, President Zelenski

0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:22.360
<v Speaker 4>would be willing to agree to a cease fire and

0:02:22.400 --> 0:02:26.399
<v Speaker 4>then obviously more negotiations on how this comes to an end.

0:02:26.960 --> 0:02:29.440
<v Speaker 4>But it's Putin that's keeping it going well.

0:02:29.440 --> 0:02:32.320
<v Speaker 1>Angela. On that note, is it all optics and ego

0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:35.440
<v Speaker 1>that Putin can't walk back or live with the view

0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:38.639
<v Speaker 1>that forever we would remember they weren't successful in this war.

0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:43.120
<v Speaker 4>So he's now stated this. He thinks that not only

0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:46.600
<v Speaker 4>is his regime survival dependent on winning this war, but

0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:49.720
<v Speaker 4>his own personal survival. This is how he's defined it.

0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:52.560
<v Speaker 4>As far as we understand, it's quite possible that the

0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:56.120
<v Speaker 4>people around him this is an or very authoritarian country,

0:02:56.440 --> 0:02:58.440
<v Speaker 4>are giving him the news that he wants to hear.

0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:02.040
<v Speaker 4>He may not fully understand what's happening on the battlefield

0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:05.200
<v Speaker 4>in Ukraine, but he is just digging his heels in

0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:08.280
<v Speaker 4>and he's presenting it to his population that this is

0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:11.160
<v Speaker 4>just like World War Two, and just like we beat

0:03:11.200 --> 0:03:15.400
<v Speaker 4>the Nazis, we're going to beat the Nazi Ukrainians.

0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:18.399
<v Speaker 2>How stressed are the people though in Russia and economically

0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:21.480
<v Speaker 2>because of this warrant? Does that really matter to President Putin?

0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:25.040
<v Speaker 4>Well, so, they are feeling the stress much more. There

0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:28.400
<v Speaker 4>are gasoline shortages in Russia, which is the third largest

0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:33.760
<v Speaker 4>producer of oil in the world. There are food shortages,

0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:36.920
<v Speaker 4>for instance, in Crimea, where the Ukrainians have been hitting

0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:40.120
<v Speaker 4>very hard. People are trying to leave the island now

0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:43.520
<v Speaker 4>because they just can't survive on what they have. People

0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:47.440
<v Speaker 4>are feeling it, but it's very hard to convey this

0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:50.360
<v Speaker 4>or for this to have an actual impact on what

0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:54.280
<v Speaker 4>the Kremlin does, because whenever you try and criticize it,

0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:58.480
<v Speaker 4>at least publicly, or you protest publicly, you can be arrested,

0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:02.280
<v Speaker 4>you can be jailed. There is somewhat more kind of

0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:06.120
<v Speaker 4>nuanced criticism that one hears about, well, maybe it's really

0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:09.280
<v Speaker 4>time to end the war, also from the business community,

0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:14.320
<v Speaker 4>never criticizing, of course the president himself. But it's very

0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:18.159
<v Speaker 4>hard to make an impression on the Crumblin itself, just

0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:21.560
<v Speaker 4>because there's more grumbling among the population.

0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:24.000
<v Speaker 1>And Trump saying that Zelenski has done an amazing job,

0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:27.320
<v Speaker 1>which is quite a turn from where the two's relationship

0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:30.800
<v Speaker 1>had been what does that mean for Russia if Trump

0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:33.360
<v Speaker 1>seemingly is fully in Ukraine's corner, and what are the

0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:35.279
<v Speaker 1>other countries around the world thinking about and how has

0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:35.880
<v Speaker 1>that evolved?

0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:39.799
<v Speaker 4>So I think the Russians understand that Trump isn't fully

0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:44.000
<v Speaker 4>in Ukraine's corner. I mean, he had a long telephone

0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:47.400
<v Speaker 4>conversation with Putin just before the NATO summit, and he

0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:50.560
<v Speaker 4>came away from that saying, yes, well, Putin really wants peace.

0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:53.960
<v Speaker 4>But what's really changes that Trump understands now, you know,

0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:57.359
<v Speaker 4>having told Zelenski in that awful Oval Office meeting in

0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:00.479
<v Speaker 4>February of twenty twenty five, you have no card. He

0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:04.120
<v Speaker 4>sees that Ukraine looks like a winner, that it has cards,

0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:06.880
<v Speaker 4>that the Ukrainians are really fighting back, and I think

0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:11.279
<v Speaker 4>that's really impressed him, and that's why he's been willing

0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:16.000
<v Speaker 4>to say that Ukraine can get the licenses for manufacturing

0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:19.240
<v Speaker 4>Patriot air batteries air defenses, although we have to be

0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:21.880
<v Speaker 4>very cautious this is going to take quite a long time.

0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:24.839
<v Speaker 4>They have to sign the agreements with the US companies

0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:27.719
<v Speaker 4>and things like that. But again, that is a major reversal.

0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:31.839
<v Speaker 4>So I think he appreciates winners, and he appreciates that,

0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:35.520
<v Speaker 4>whatever he really thinks of Ukraine and President Zelenski, that

0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:39.440
<v Speaker 4>the Ukrainians have done a pretty impressive job of innovating

0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:40.400
<v Speaker 4>and fighting back.

0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:42.680
<v Speaker 1>Well, you make the great point that this isn't something

0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:44.800
<v Speaker 1>you just flip a switch and then Patriot missiles are

0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:48.000
<v Speaker 1>rolling off of a machine line and being put to use.

0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:52.400
<v Speaker 1>How does that lag by itself impact what kind of

0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:54.599
<v Speaker 1>comes next in the timing from the Ukraine perspective.

0:05:55.600 --> 0:05:58.920
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so, I think in the immediate, really short term future,

0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:02.440
<v Speaker 4>Ukraine is still in a very difficult position because Russia

0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:07.160
<v Speaker 4>is increasingly using these ballistic missiles and Ukraine just doesn't

0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:10.880
<v Speaker 4>have the air defenses to counter these ballistic missiles. And

0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:13.719
<v Speaker 4>we saw that in the most recent strikes on Kiv

0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:18.240
<v Speaker 4>when more people were killed. So Ukraine desperately really needs

0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:22.280
<v Speaker 4>these Patriot batteries. The US doesn't have many of them

0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:25.560
<v Speaker 4>because it's been using them in the war against Iran.

0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:29.760
<v Speaker 4>The Europeans don't have that many, and they really purchase

0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:32.440
<v Speaker 4>them from the US. So it's not going to help

0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:36.200
<v Speaker 4>Ukraine in the short run, but in the longer run,

0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:38.720
<v Speaker 4>if the licensees were granted and if they can really

0:06:38.760 --> 0:06:42.920
<v Speaker 4>produce these Patriot batteries rather quickly. It could help them

0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:44.800
<v Speaker 4>going forward, let's say next year.

0:06:45.600 --> 0:06:49.320
<v Speaker 2>Angela, I always do think about you know, certainly Russia,

0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.159
<v Speaker 2>but I also think of it in this war, in

0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:53.880
<v Speaker 2>particular against Ukraine. But I also think of it in

0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:57.320
<v Speaker 2>the context of the access of Russia or on China.

0:06:57.480 --> 0:06:59.240
<v Speaker 2>You can throw in North Korea there as well. Is

0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:01.400
<v Speaker 2>that important to kind of keep in mind as we

0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:06.240
<v Speaker 2>watch this war between Russia and Ukraine specifically, Yes.

0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:08.000
<v Speaker 4>I think it's very important. I mean, we have to

0:07:08.040 --> 0:07:11.400
<v Speaker 4>remember that without China at Putin, probably wouldn't still be

0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:14.880
<v Speaker 4>in this war. Because the Chinese have been buying either

0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:18.280
<v Speaker 4>Russian oil, They've been supplying the Russians with all kinds

0:07:18.320 --> 0:07:21.880
<v Speaker 4>of technology and components. They haven't actually sold them weapons

0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:23.800
<v Speaker 4>as far as we know, at least in the public,

0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:27.360
<v Speaker 4>but they certainly provide them with the components for the weaponry,

0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:29.680
<v Speaker 4>and they don't want to see Russia lose this war.

0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:34.360
<v Speaker 4>North Koreans, of course have supplied them with ammunition. They

0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:37.600
<v Speaker 4>have supplied them with soldiers who were fighting and who

0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:41.560
<v Speaker 4>are still fighting with the Russian forces. And the Iranians

0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:44.640
<v Speaker 4>were very important in the beginning in supplying Russia with

0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:48.720
<v Speaker 4>the Shah drones. By now, the Russians have perfected those drones,

0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:51.640
<v Speaker 4>and in fact they've supplied around with the more modern

0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:54.640
<v Speaker 4>drones in its current war with the United States. But

0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:59.160
<v Speaker 4>this group of countries, these three curreties are very important

0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:02.520
<v Speaker 4>to Russia, China being the most important in terms of

0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:04.800
<v Speaker 4>its ability to continue waging this war.

0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:06.840
<v Speaker 2>How important is President Trump and all of this, like,

0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:10.320
<v Speaker 2>it's hard to gauge, you know, friendly to President's landscape

0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:12.920
<v Speaker 2>seemed today, but also talks about how much he talks

0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:16.040
<v Speaker 2>to President Putin. I'm never quite sure, you know, keep

0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:18.560
<v Speaker 2>your friends close, keep your enemies closer. I don't know

0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:21.800
<v Speaker 2>how to read it anymore. But how important is President

0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:25.080
<v Speaker 2>Trump in perhaps putting pressure on President Putin?

0:08:26.520 --> 0:08:29.040
<v Speaker 4>I mean, he could put more pressure on President Putin,

0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:33.200
<v Speaker 4>we could have tougher economic sanctions. There is this bill.

0:08:33.280 --> 0:08:36.400
<v Speaker 4>There are several bills in the Senate which a majority

0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:41.079
<v Speaker 4>of the Senator's Republicans and Democrats support, But the Republicans

0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:43.760
<v Speaker 4>are waiting for the go ahead from President Trump to

0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:48.800
<v Speaker 4>sign this legislation. So that would be important. And again,

0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:52.480
<v Speaker 4>if the US were willing to provide Ukraine, maybe via

0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:58.280
<v Speaker 4>the Europeans with more sophisticated weapons, with the Patriot batteries

0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:01.760
<v Speaker 4>with a Tomahawk missiles, then that would put more pressure

0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:05.959
<v Speaker 4>on President Putin. But so far the Trump administration has

0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:09.080
<v Speaker 4>not been willing to apply that pressure, and that is

0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:12.080
<v Speaker 4>why I think President Putin still holds out hope that

0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:15.160
<v Speaker 4>he can still get Trump to pressure Zelenski to give

0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:19.280
<v Speaker 4>up territory, although that doesn't seem likely at the very moment.

0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:21.920
<v Speaker 1>Is there any risk and we've only got about thirty

0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:24.400
<v Speaker 1>seconds here, forty five seconds here? What are the risks

0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:27.600
<v Speaker 1>of contagion when we have the conflict going on in Iran,

0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:30.520
<v Speaker 1>when we have obviously the conflict going on in Ukraine.

0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:34.320
<v Speaker 4>Well, I think one of the risks is will Russia

0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:37.400
<v Speaker 4>try as it escalates to broaden the war and in

0:09:37.400 --> 0:09:43.079
<v Speaker 4>fight attack more indirectly or possibly directly. A NATO member

0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:45.959
<v Speaker 4>state and some of the frontline states believe that this

0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:48.480
<v Speaker 4>could happen. So I think that's something to watch for.

0:09:50.760 --> 0:09:53.360
<v Speaker 2>Okay, I thought I was stressed out before, Now I'm

0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:57.520
<v Speaker 2>even stressed out more. Angela, we appreciate all the time

0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:00.280
<v Speaker 2>you give us. Thank you so much, Angela's and of

0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:02.560
<v Speaker 2>course great to have you back. With US senior fellow

0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:05.600
<v Speaker 2>at the American Enterprise Institute's author of Putin's World, Russia

0:10:05.720 --> 0:10:08.560
<v Speaker 2>Against the West, and with the rest former National Intelligence

0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:11.200
<v Speaker 2>officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council.

0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:13.959
<v Speaker 2>I mean, so we lean on her a lot