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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so smooth,

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Speaker 1: so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Splendid sixteen just glorious extrocution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind?

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Speaker 3: Good buddy, And that's why you.

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Speaker 2: See nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up. I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The wall.

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Speaker 3: It's left too.

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Speaker 1: The wide eyed.

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Speaker 2: Drill reibus, how old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello, everybody, Welcome back to Wernegle, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 3: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee buff

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Speaker 3: In just a moment, you'll also hear from my co hosts, friends, colleagues,

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Speaker 3: Bja Cunningham coming to you from Des Moines, Iowa. Anthony

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Speaker 3: Dubunda coming to you from East Strousburg, Pennsylvania. But before

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Speaker 3: I bring them in, just a reminder. Wonder Goal is

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Speaker 3: presented by BET three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

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Speaker 3: Sign Up with promo code action to get BET three

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Speaker 3: six fives exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey and Colorado.

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Speaker 3: Bet one dollar on any game, get two hundred free gentlemen.

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Speaker 3: Only a couple more weeks to go to the World Cup,

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Speaker 3: we'll have We're working on our plans, our content plans

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Speaker 3: for the World Cup, on Wonder Goal, some live shows,

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Speaker 3: all that jazz. We will update you very soon on

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Speaker 3: what to expect. But before that, let's talk about this

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Speaker 3: weekend's Premier League action. We'll start with a Graham Potter

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Speaker 3: derby Brighton. They're home hosting Chelsea. The Seagulls plus one

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Speaker 3: eighty seven home underdogs Chelsea plus one fifty, the draw

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Speaker 3: plus two thirty. These odds and all the odds we

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Speaker 3: will be referencing coming to you from our friends at

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Speaker 3: bet three six five. This is an interesting one for

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Speaker 3: a lot of different reasons. I think Chelsea's been overperforming.

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Speaker 3: We got the Potter situation and also some fatigue and

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Speaker 3: injury issues for the Blues. They were justin Salzburg on Tuesday.

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Speaker 3: They got to win. They've played eight games since October one.

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Speaker 3: They've played nine games under Graham Potter. They've lost zero games,

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Speaker 3: six wins, three draws, a plus two point two expected

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Speaker 3: goal differential in those games, but they've allowed five point

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Speaker 3: two expected goals in their last four matches, so they've

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Speaker 3: been a little bit leakier. They just haven't been as

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Speaker 3: impressive over the past few weeks. I think as they're

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Speaker 3: kind of adjusting to the Potter system. Now they walk

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Speaker 3: into the Ames, you know it's going to be a

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Speaker 3: great atmosphere. I think this because probably is the game

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Speaker 3: of the weekend and I like Brighton here as a

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Speaker 3: home dog plus twenty eighty seven it's good enough for me,

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Speaker 3: So give me Dessarbi's man Alexis McCallister just signed a

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Speaker 3: new contract. We love him. Good vibes at the amex

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Speaker 3: BJ Brighton.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely yeah, I'm on Brighton as well. So there's a

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Speaker 1: trend that I've kind of been noticing with Chelsea over

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Speaker 1: the last few matches that is really alarming when you're

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Speaker 1: gonna go play Brighton, and it's how easily teams have

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Speaker 1: been able to move the ball and build up play.

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Speaker 1: So against Manchester United, United has seventy eight percent seventy

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Speaker 1: eight percent build up past percentage and Chelsea's pass per

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Speaker 1: defensive action was fifteen. Then against Brentford, who is a

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Speaker 1: way more direct team, they had a seventy three point

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Speaker 1: one percent build up rate and Chelsea only had a

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Speaker 1: pass the per defensive action of eleven. Same thing with

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Speaker 1: Aston Villa they had over eighty two percent build up percentage.

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Speaker 1: Chelsea On had passed the per defensive action of ten.

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Speaker 1: Desserbe is very adamant that he wants to play out

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Speaker 1: of the back like he is is gonna play out

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Speaker 1: of the back here. Which it's interesting because against Manchester

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Speaker 1: City Brighton held fifty three percent possession and the field

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Speaker 1: tal was fifty to fifty. I can't really remember a

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Speaker 1: time that a team was able to do that to

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Speaker 1: Manchester City. That's incredibly impressive. So I think Brighton actually

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Speaker 1: should be able to control possession here. They should be

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Speaker 1: able to play through Chelsea's pressure. They'll do it by

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Speaker 1: you know, creating overloads in between the lines, these complex

80
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Speaker 1: passing structures that deserve He's been very famous for and

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Speaker 1: it's honestly working here with Brighton because he's played you know,

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Speaker 1: three Big six sides already and they have about you know,

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Speaker 1: an even expected goal of French fill under him. So

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Speaker 1: they've been incredibly impressive and Chelsea, I mean you mentioned

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Speaker 1: Michael Defensively, they haven't been that good They've allowed five

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Speaker 1: point two expected goals in the last four matches. They've

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Speaker 1: been out shot in the penalty area thirty three to

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Speaker 1: twenty five in those matches. And the thing about it

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Speaker 1: is grand Potter obviously knows his old side very very well,

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Speaker 1: but then the flip side of that, his players know

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Speaker 1: exactly what Graham Potter wants to do from a tackicle perspective. Plus,

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at Chelsea's offense, they haven't

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Speaker 1: really been that good this season. Like, they're only averaging

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Speaker 1: one point one non penalty expected goals per match. That's

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Speaker 1: eleventh in the Premier League. They've only created three big

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Speaker 1: scoring chances since Potter's been in charge. So and then

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Speaker 1: you mentioned the rest Michael, that Chelsea this is their

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Speaker 1: fifth road match in fourteen days. This is crazy, Like,

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Speaker 1: so this is a great spot for Brighton, who played

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Speaker 1: honestly outplayed Chelsea in both meetings last season. Obviously Potter

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Speaker 1: wasn't charge of Brighton at that point, but yeah, I

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Speaker 1: have actually been Brighton projected a slight favorite here, So

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Speaker 1: I'm with you. I like the Seagulls drawn no bet

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Speaker 1: at plus one oh five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, seages on the South coast. I'm excited for this.

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Speaker 3: I really can't wait for the reception for Potter. You know,

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Speaker 3: Brighton fans are great, like they don't take it for granted,

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Speaker 3: and we don't take branded. Yeah they no ball, no ball,

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Speaker 3: and we don't take brain for granted. On this podcast, Anthony,

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Speaker 3: we do not.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think there was a fear right when Potter left.

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Speaker 2: We were like, oh, no, Brighton's ruined. But it turns

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Speaker 2: out they're still pretty good. And you know, a few

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Speaker 2: weeks ago, I bet Brighton at home is a pick

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Speaker 2: them against Tottenham, and I recall being criticized for that position, and.

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Speaker 3: Uh it was.

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Speaker 1: I stand by that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that was fair criticism.

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Speaker 2: I don't agree. I thought that match was was well

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Speaker 2: dominated by Brighton in terms of possession and controlling chances,

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Speaker 2: but they did lose, so I guess you're right, but

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Speaker 2: I think this is a great spot for Brighton as well.

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Speaker 2: You guys talked about the rest advantage. Chelsea played Salisburg.

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Speaker 2: They weren't particularly good. I mean, they scored two great

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Speaker 2: finishes into the top corner by Havertz and Covid Chic,

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Speaker 2: but on the balance of the chances, that game was

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Speaker 2: very even they were not the better side against Man

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Speaker 2: United at home last weekend. They were not better than

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Speaker 2: Brentford at Brentford, they were not better than Villa at Villas.

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Speaker 2: That's four straight matches where you cannot confidently say that

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Speaker 2: Chelsea was the best opponent on the pitch, and you

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Speaker 2: could make the case that Brighton is the toughest spot

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Speaker 2: of those of those five games. Now that they're on

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Speaker 2: the road against a team which we talked about it.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned the field tilt been impressive, but what's been

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Speaker 2: most impressive to me is that Brighton doesn't look like

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Speaker 2: they've missed a beat whatsoever. The results were always going

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Speaker 2: to be tough to get because of their schedule, right,

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Speaker 2: They've played Liverpool and they've played Manchester City, they played

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Speaker 2: Tottenham Like that's a really tough schedule for a manager.

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Speaker 2: And they go to bright they go to Brentford, that's

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Speaker 2: a really tough pixture. Like we've talked about that the

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Speaker 2: Forest one was super unlucky. So they're due for a

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Speaker 2: good result here and they've played well enough to deserve that.

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Speaker 2: And I think that they're wrongly underdogs. I agree with

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Speaker 2: both the I make them a favorite in this match

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Speaker 2: and I'll be betting them at any dog price. So

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Speaker 2: give me Brighton on the drawn a bat line.

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Speaker 3: Let's make it three for three the Deserveee Boys in

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Speaker 3: the grandpat Or Derby seven thirty am kickoff, Leicester plus

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Speaker 3: nine hundred at home to lose to Manchester City who

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Speaker 3: minus four hundred on the road. The draw here is

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Speaker 3: plus five fifty. Anthony, here's a quick question for you.

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Speaker 3: What do you think Earling Holland anytime goalscorer is lined

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Speaker 3: at right.

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Speaker 2: Now minus two seventy five.

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Speaker 3: It's minus two to fifty. It's just absurd. He's plus

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Speaker 3: one eighty five to be the first one to score. Bananas.

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Speaker 1: He's questionable too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he came off at half and he did not

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Speaker 2: look great in the first half against Dorman. I thought

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Speaker 2: it was the worst.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure Pep said that he had influenza.

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Speaker 2: So who's the worst forty five minutes I've seen him

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Speaker 2: playing on Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So we'll we'll we'll see, man, we'll monitor that monitor

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Speaker 1: that because he's going to bed would get me to

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Speaker 1: the under.

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Speaker 2: I think at the current number.

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Speaker 3: City unders Man, that's that's when you come.

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Speaker 2: To the show.

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Speaker 1: Lester's not the best finishing team on planet Earth Anthony.

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Speaker 3: And the goalkeeper on planet too. The Dandy Ward three

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Speaker 3: three straight Sandy Ward three map.

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Speaker 2: Is all timer. They were out shot twenty was it

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Speaker 2: twenty two to four yep?

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Speaker 1: Or twenty two to five. They missed, they missed, They

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Speaker 1: missed the goal once.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, they they They took the five shots and

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Speaker 2: their first four shots all went in yep.

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Speaker 1: Pretty much.

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Speaker 3: Maybe Danny and Jose Saws switched bodies for a little bit.

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Speaker 2: And we're not talking Tappens either. These were there were

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Speaker 2: a couple of bangers in there.

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Speaker 3: It's not easy.

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Speaker 2: Finishes less than just over one expected goal after it

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Speaker 2: was all said and done. But yeah, this is under nothing. Uh,

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Speaker 2: Lester's tech is not even going to get shots off.

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Speaker 2: I don't think like they're going to really struggle here.

190
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Speaker 2: It is a flat spot for City. They're kind of

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Speaker 2: just in the Doulgens right now. I think they're kind

192
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Speaker 2: of waiting around for the World Cup to happen. They

193
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Speaker 2: they slept walk through the entire match against Dortmund in

194
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Speaker 2: the midweek. They like they should win this match comfortably.

195
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Speaker 2: But what's the desire to go run up the score

196
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Speaker 2: on the road. I don't really see it here. They

197
00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,240
Speaker 2: haven't been putting up like, you know, gaudy, gaudy numbers

198
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Speaker 2: in the last few matches. I think, you know, we're

199
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Speaker 2: seeing that, you know, finally they're regressing a little bit

200
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Speaker 2: in attack, like they were never going to score three

201
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Speaker 2: three and a half goals a game like they were

202
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Speaker 2: early in the season. They've actually been held score less

203
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Speaker 2: three of their last four matches, which is interesting. But yeah,

204
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Speaker 2: I have no interest in betting Lester at any anywhere

205
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Speaker 2: near the current price because they still stink, even though

206
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Speaker 2: their defense has positively aggressed to the point where, yes,

207
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Speaker 2: Danny Ward is really bad, but nobody's as bad as

208
00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:40,200
Speaker 2: he was the first month of the season, Like nobody

209
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:41,520
Speaker 2: can really be that bad.

210
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Speaker 3: He's on fire. He's getting into for him for Wales

211
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Speaker 3: at the World Cup. I think the point about the

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Speaker 3: World Cup is interesting. We've seen a lot of high

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Speaker 3: profile injuries and I just wonder how many players are

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Speaker 3: just pacing themselves right now too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, City has Leicester the obviously less of this weekend

216
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Speaker 1: and Sevie in a match that means absolutely nothing in

217
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Speaker 1: the Champions League, Fullham and Brentford at home, and then

218
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Speaker 1: the World Cup, so chelseafl there on the beach, Chelsea

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Speaker 1: in THEFL Cup. But it's probably gonna be Sleepwalk City

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Speaker 1: for city until that's so funny, Sleepwalk City for city

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Speaker 1: until the World Cup.

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you what. That is an all time Brentford spot.

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Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, if only if it was at Brentford

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Speaker 1: I would be still.

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Speaker 2: They're going to get two and a half. And that's

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Speaker 2: an all time Brentford spot.

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Speaker 3: Yep so city around the beach. Let's talk about Anthony Spurs.

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Speaker 3: Their odds on favorites on the road minus one forty three,

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Speaker 3: born myth hosting them there plus four hundred. The draw

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Speaker 3: here is plus two eighty. Hey, hen gotta tip your

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Speaker 3: cap to board Myth. They've created one expected goal or

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Speaker 3: more in two of their last three matches, after starting

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Speaker 3: the season with nine straight matches where they created under one.

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Speaker 3: So this offense is prolific. All of a sudden, Anthony,

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Speaker 3: they are prolific.

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Speaker 1: Chef Anthony, this is cheap.

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Speaker 3: It does feel a little cheap on'm Spurs here. The

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Speaker 3: fatigue is an issue. The fact that they're not that

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Speaker 3: good of a team is an issue. It's cheap and

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Speaker 3: the stylistic matchup, because we know what the Cherries are

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Speaker 3: gonna do here. They're just gonna sit low at the

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Speaker 3: Vitality Stadium, that small pitch and just pack it in

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Speaker 3: against Spurs. And we know what's how that's the way

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Speaker 3: to kind of trip up Tottenham if you are trying

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Speaker 3: to punch up as an underdog. So I've got nothing here,

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Speaker 3: But I don't think Spurs are a bed part light

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Speaker 3: piece because I just think that the qualities is just

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Speaker 3: the difference equalities there. So that's one thing I'll consider, Anthony,

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Speaker 3: though you guess.

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Speaker 2: I'm not laying minus one forty three with Spurs here.

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Speaker 2: This is oh come on, really not, I'm not And

252
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Speaker 2: like you would.

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Speaker 3: Do it with Liverpool, you would do it with Liverpool.

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Speaker 2: Well, Liverpool's better than Spurs. They are, although we can

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Speaker 2: talk about them in a minute.

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Speaker 1: But Arsenal is like what minus two fifty at Bournemouth

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Speaker 1: earlier this season? I mean, come on, like, what are

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Speaker 1: we doing here?

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Speaker 2: It's a terrible spot.

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Speaker 1: First of all, you know, there's a world.

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Speaker 2: Where Spurs didn't get that last goal vart Off today

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Speaker 2: and they would be able to have won the group

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Speaker 2: and then they could turn all their attention to this

264
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Speaker 2: weekend's prem match, but now they need to result in

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Speaker 2: Marseille next midweek. But Tottenham another performance today against Lisbon,

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Speaker 2: a team who is going to who did the exact

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Speaker 2: same thing that Bournemouth is going to do in this

268
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Speaker 2: match Saturday. They're going to sit deep and let's Burgers

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Speaker 2: have the ball and say good luck, try your best

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Speaker 2: to score against us. And set pieces have been the

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Speaker 2: only way Spurs have created anything for a while now

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Speaker 2: without Kouloseevsky and it's a clear issue and I tweeted it.

273
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Speaker 2: I was like day on Koulosewsky must be the best

274
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Speaker 2: player in the world because the way you watch Tottenham

275
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Speaker 2: with him without him is incredible. And look, Son and

276
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Speaker 2: Kane's numbers are down, their shot numbers are not what

277
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Speaker 2: they were last season under Conte. There is there's a

278
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Speaker 2: lot of talking in soccer analytics about it's called zone fourteen.

279
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Speaker 2: It's the area right outside the penalty area where that

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Speaker 2: little like arch circle is right. That's a key area

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Speaker 2: for ball progression getting into dangerous areas. Tottenham does not

282
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Speaker 2: have a player who can pick a pass. Besides, Harry

283
00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:02,520
Speaker 2: does not have a player who progresses the ball into

284
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Speaker 2: that area. Consistently player who takes shots from that area.

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Speaker 2: They don't take advantage of it. They don't have the

286
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Speaker 2: personnel right now, and it's a problem. And they're going

287
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Speaker 2: on the road in a situation where if they don't

288
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Speaker 2: score off a set piece, it's going to be very

289
00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:16,920
Speaker 2: hard for them to score. We've talked about the Bournemouth

290
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Speaker 2: team and like how bad their attack is, and it's

291
00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:22,079
Speaker 2: really bad. And like, I do think Spurs defensively will

292
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Speaker 2: be fine here. I don't see them being too troubled,

293
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Speaker 2: but I think it's gonna be a very difficult totten

294
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Speaker 2: to match. Easily could see this being a one noil

295
00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:32,240
Speaker 2: or one one type game. But Bourmouth have allowed the

296
00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:34,560
Speaker 2: second most shots off set pieces. That does scare me

297
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Speaker 2: because look Todd them both great on set pieces. But

298
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Speaker 2: I don't see Spurs running it up here. I don't

299
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Speaker 2: see them incentivized to run it up. I like the

300
00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:41,960
Speaker 2: under two and a half.

301
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Speaker 1: At what price would you play Tottenham here?

302
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:44,160
Speaker 2: Probably?

303
00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:46,959
Speaker 3: Oh my good lord.

304
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Speaker 1: I think Look, I am as created. This team is

305
00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:55,080
Speaker 1: averaging zero point six expected goals for match, Anthony. They

306
00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:56,920
Speaker 1: are horrible offensive.

307
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Speaker 2: Yeah, they're not.

308
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Speaker 1: They're not going to say why.

309
00:13:57,880 --> 00:13:59,920
Speaker 2: I'm betting the under. You're you're you're kind of make

310
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,920
Speaker 2: in my case here they're like, oh gosh, we're we're

311
00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,439
Speaker 2: We're just not like I. I I'm very close to

312
00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:06,880
Speaker 2: my bet.

313
00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:08,000
Speaker 3: I might bet Spurs for you.

314
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:08,840
Speaker 1: I think I might give you.

315
00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:10,040
Speaker 3: I think I just give you the ticket.

316
00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:10,440
Speaker 2: I might.

317
00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:13,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna do maybe two units on Spurs once

318
00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:13,640
Speaker 1: for Anthony.

319
00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:15,840
Speaker 2: That's a lot of juice. Man.

320
00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:16,840
Speaker 1: That's fine.

321
00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:21,760
Speaker 3: It's it's it is, but it's not when you're Tottenham.

322
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,880
Speaker 2: Bournemouth are bad. But I'm not going to sit here

323
00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:26,600
Speaker 2: and tell you they're good. I think they Their attack

324
00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,320
Speaker 2: is is absolutely dreadful and so it's very hard, like

325
00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:32,280
Speaker 2: it's very hard to make the case for them, like

326
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:33,960
Speaker 2: you know, putting up a big showing here. They've taken

327
00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:35,800
Speaker 2: sixty four shots in open play. It's the fewerst in

328
00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:40,000
Speaker 2: the league. But again, this is a this is a

329
00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,040
Speaker 2: bet against Tottenham's attack, and I think the best way

330
00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:42,960
Speaker 2: to get at that is the under.

331
00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:47,880
Speaker 3: All right, Brentford or plus one twenty at home hosting

332
00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:51,640
Speaker 3: Wolverhampton plus two thirty to draw here is plus two forty.

333
00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,800
Speaker 3: Wolve's two goals scored in their last six matches. They

334
00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,680
Speaker 3: do have five point six spectacles in that span. So

335
00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,400
Speaker 3: the same old, same old from this Wolverhampton squad. Somewhere

336
00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,600
Speaker 3: Bruno Lage is sitting on the side, you know, in

337
00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:08,760
Speaker 3: Monaco or somewhere wherever. He's enjoying his time off, getting

338
00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,720
Speaker 3: paid not to coach and saying, see it's not it

339
00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,440
Speaker 3: wasn't me. We always are a little wary about the

340
00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:19,200
Speaker 3: Bees his favorites here. But Anthony, you think this could

341
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,560
Speaker 3: be worth a shot?

342
00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:23,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, from a pure numbers point of view, I do

343
00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:25,760
Speaker 2: have a tiny bit of value on Brentford. I think

344
00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,440
Speaker 2: it's Bees or nothing here. I know about Wolves expected

345
00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,560
Speaker 2: goals numbers. I know that they haven't been quite as

346
00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:34,240
Speaker 2: bad as their underlying number suggests. They've only scored five goals,

347
00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:36,960
Speaker 2: they have over eleven expected like that can't continue forever.

348
00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:41,960
Speaker 2: But they are just so few good finishing attacking players

349
00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:45,800
Speaker 2: on this Wolves team. Everybody who takes their shots is bad,

350
00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:50,320
Speaker 2: just bad at finishing. And like I know, we talk

351
00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,520
Speaker 2: about aggression to the mean a lot, but there are

352
00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,000
Speaker 2: some players who have just demonstrated throughout their careers that

353
00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:59,000
Speaker 2: they are below average, below actually finishers. People like and

354
00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:00,920
Speaker 2: the Domitrio Ra or Trinco like.

355
00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,920
Speaker 1: These are people who it's just.

356
00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 2: Hard to put your faith into. And Brentford does the

357
00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 2: little things really well, like set pieces, and I think

358
00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:12,080
Speaker 2: that's a big way where Wolves can create some free chances,

359
00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:13,800
Speaker 2: some freeheaders. They're not going to get a ton of

360
00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:16,280
Speaker 2: those against Brentford because Brentford is excellent defense will be

361
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:20,360
Speaker 2: on set pieces and Wolves have had their cracks defensively.

362
00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,160
Speaker 2: Of course, we've talked about Jose Sau regression. They're kind

363
00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:25,600
Speaker 2: of middle of the pack in xg Alata from set pieces,

364
00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,800
Speaker 2: so you can get at them there. So yeah, it

365
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:30,680
Speaker 2: would be bes or nothing. But like you mentioned, I'm

366
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,800
Speaker 2: not running to the window. If to bet Brentford is

367
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:37,720
Speaker 2: a favorite against what is still a decent midfield in

368
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,880
Speaker 2: Wolves and BJ you are looking at one of your

369
00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:44,160
Speaker 2: favorite bets.

370
00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,560
Speaker 1: Both teams to score no. Plus one h five. I mean,

371
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,040
Speaker 1: Anthony mentioned they're like Wolves. It's funny, you know. I

372
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,600
Speaker 1: saw a lot of the box score against Lester going

373
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:58,520
Speaker 1: around on Twitter of Wolves twenty one shots the Lester five.

374
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, how do they lose four? Nothing?

375
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:01,280
Speaker 3: Like?

376
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, Wolves created two expected goals off of those twenty

377
00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,000
Speaker 1: some shots. Well, one of them was off a big

378
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,440
Speaker 1: scoring chance that Diego Coast have missed. The other one

379
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:14,359
Speaker 1: point five was off of twenty shots. Like, that's incredibly inefficient.

380
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:16,800
Speaker 1: That's what Wolves has been doing all season long. Like,

381
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,399
Speaker 1: I'll give them credit. That match against Lester that was

382
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,160
Speaker 1: the first time in their last six matches that they've

383
00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:25,800
Speaker 1: actually created one expected goal from open play. So we

384
00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:28,359
Speaker 1: can talk about regression all we want, the fact of

385
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,199
Speaker 1: the matter is that, yeah, Wolves gets off a ton

386
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,920
Speaker 1: of shots, all of them are incredibly low quality. So,

387
00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:36,040
Speaker 1: like Anthony mentioned, going u against a Brentford team that

388
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,680
Speaker 1: does an incredible job of defending their penalty area, who

389
00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,880
Speaker 1: isn't allowing a thing really much in terms of quality

390
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,879
Speaker 1: from inside their own area, basically forcing Wolves to just

391
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,160
Speaker 1: take a bunch of low quality chances from outside the box.

392
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:49,160
Speaker 1: I have a hard time seeing how Wolves is actually

393
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,560
Speaker 1: going to threaten Brentford's defense. Now, on the flip side

394
00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,679
Speaker 1: of that, Wolves has been doing a good job of

395
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,280
Speaker 1: limiting big scoring chances, like their fifth in the Premier

396
00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:58,600
Speaker 1: League in that category. They've only you know, they'll allowed

397
00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:01,639
Speaker 1: more than one big scoring chance match one time this season.

398
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 1: We as we've talked Brentford is very, very reliant on

399
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 1: those big scoring chances because they're taking the third few

400
00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,600
Speaker 1: of shots per ninety in the Premier League. So I

401
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,920
Speaker 1: think both team to score no up plus one five.

402
00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,399
Speaker 1: I think you have a good recipe here for a

403
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:15,959
Speaker 1: one nil or maybe potentially a well out.

404
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 3: You know.

405
00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:17,879
Speaker 1: The good thing about both team to score no. And

406
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,000
Speaker 1: I am kicking myself while I took under two and

407
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,080
Speaker 1: a half for Aston Villa Brentford instead of you know,

408
00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,360
Speaker 1: BTTs no is that you get the four to zero,

409
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,440
Speaker 1: five to zero results if things to get out of hands,

410
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,400
Speaker 1: so you know, finally, you know, last year Brentford dominated

411
00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,119
Speaker 1: both these meetings, Like expected goals was three point nine

412
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,280
Speaker 1: to one. They just played Wolves right off the park

413
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 1: in both meetings. So yeah, both team to score now

414
00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:39,879
Speaker 1: at plus one five. I haven't projected at minus one

415
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,440
Speaker 1: twenty four, so I think there's some decent value there.

416
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:44,440
Speaker 3: Yeah.

417
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,520
Speaker 2: I remember it was last year these two teams played

418
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:48,639
Speaker 2: a game where there were like three different bangers.

419
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,640
Speaker 1: It was the classic Brentford like absolutely dominates the match.

420
00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:54,440
Speaker 1: Then Wolves's a couple of bangers from outs at box essentially.

421
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I feel like this is the kind of

422
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:57,560
Speaker 2: game where that can happen.

423
00:18:57,880 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 1: Yeah.

424
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 2: You know, we talk about like Wolves and how they

425
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 2: like to shoot from distance, and Riya has not been

426
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 2: great in goal this year. They do let you shoot

427
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 2: from distance, so like you do open up like an

428
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,480
Speaker 2: enhanced risk, and eventually Wolves will have a game where

429
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:14,359
Speaker 2: they will like hit two of those kind of goals.

430
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 2: And I remember having the over last year when these

431
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 2: two teams played. There was like one point five x

432
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 2: G but the total was sitting at two, so I

433
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,200
Speaker 2: was like, I got to bet the over and Wolves

434
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 2: hit the two bangers to get the over two to one.

435
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:26,680
Speaker 2: There will be a game where that's coming for Wolves,

436
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,320
Speaker 2: where they do score bangers and then XG philosophy will

437
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,440
Speaker 2: tweet the Wolves had point four x G and score twice.

438
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:33,640
Speaker 2: Everybody will go insane them.

439
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,879
Speaker 1: Well, that will Anthony. That will happen next week when

440
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 1: they played Brighton probably.

441
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,119
Speaker 2: Yeah so, and that was another game last year they

442
00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 2: played that insane three to three draw when Wolves had

443
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 2: like point four x G.

444
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 3: Yep.

445
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 2: So you know there will be games where Wolves will

446
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,120
Speaker 2: do some crazy shit and it hasn't happened yet this year,

447
00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:52,119
Speaker 2: which is why Wolves overs had become like a running

448
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 2: joke on this podcast. Yeah, I'm it's Brentford nothing for me.

449
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,359
Speaker 3: Let's move on to Selhurst Park. Crystal Palace odds on

450
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 3: Might six hosting Southampton three to one at Brett three

451
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 3: six five to draw here is plus two to fifty.

452
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 3: Palace struggling offensively right now zero point seven or less

453
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 3: expected goals than three of their last five matches. I meanwhile,

454
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 3: Saints don't look now three match unbeaten streak. Ralph Hasenhudle

455
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 3: has this unbelievable talent of just like when he's about

456
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 3: to get handed a pink slip, the team just kind

457
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 3: of kicks it into gear, gets a couple surprising results

458
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 3: like the draw gets Arsenal in those three matches, which

459
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:35,120
Speaker 3: included that draw with their two point six expected goals

460
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,159
Speaker 3: for three point four expected goles against. When you consider

461
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 3: the opposition West ham Bourne with and Arsenal, I think

462
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:43,199
Speaker 3: that is actually a little impressive for Southampton. I think

463
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 3: it's Saints or nothing here. I know Palace profile well

464
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 3: at home, but it's just it's a similar to what

465
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 3: we're talking about with Brentford. It's just do they have

466
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 3: enough offensive firepower? And yet Yeah, Southampton's defense can give

467
00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 3: two chances, like in the blink of an eye, But

468
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 3: do they have an offensive firepower here to be worth

469
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:07,359
Speaker 3: laying juice? I would say no, I would lead towards Southampton. Anthony,

470
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:08,640
Speaker 3: you're leaning the other way.

471
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I don't.

472
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,399
Speaker 2: Actually have much here. I do make like. It's just

473
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 2: similar to the Brentford thing, right, and we have these

474
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 2: conversations where we're like, Okay, well we think Brentford and

475
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 2: Palace are better teams than Wolves and Southampton over the

476
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:22,439
Speaker 2: course of thirty eight matches. But do I want to

477
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,439
Speaker 2: bet Palace laying a half? Not really, you know, I

478
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 2: mentioned this a couple of weeks ago and then proceeded

479
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 2: to bet them their next two matches after saying I

480
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 2: was a little bit worried about Palace offensively, and I

481
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 2: think that's kind of come to bear, like we see it.

482
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 2: They did have a comeback against Wolves, which was impressive,

483
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 2: but you know, they go down to Everton early in

484
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 2: that match and then there was kind of nothing but

485
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 2: they had no ability of creating. Now granted it was

486
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 2: away from home, but I just worry about this team

487
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 2: trying to dig out of holes because they have not

488
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 2: been effective at it. They're expected threat numbers now, like again,

489
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 2: they play in another team who's not in the top six,

490
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 2: so we can't use the schedule conversation as much anymore.

491
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 2: They and they really struggled to create eight. They're expected

492
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,159
Speaker 2: threat differential is in the bottom six in the league.

493
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 2: So hey, we were wrong on Palace. I don't know,

494
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,880
Speaker 2: Like they're still fine defensively, but I have no interest

495
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 2: in laying them as a favorite. Here.

496
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, real quick look ahead spot here and we'll talk

497
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 1: about this team obviously lader in the podcast. But they're

498
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 1: playing at west Ham next week in west Ham's just

499
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 1: sitting there at even money, so we'll see how west

500
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 1: Ham obviously does against United on Sunday.

501
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 2: But that's another thing. I don't know if I want

502
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 2: to bet against Palace in that spot either, because.

503
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 1: It's Palace on the road and they've they've proven this

504
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 1: season that they've been continually quite poor.

505
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 3: I think I still have a better team they looked

506
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 3: at last week, but they ran into a truck on

507
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 3: the road, so.

508
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah he did, that's true.

509
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 2: They still stink, Michael.

510
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 3: We'll talk about them in a little bit. Newcastle MIGHTUS

511
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen at Sevilla Man we're back. I'm so sorry, Bet,

512
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 3: it's got to be hard for you. Villa's plus three

513
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 3: twenty on the road, by the way, the Druss plus

514
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 3: two seventy five. But it's got to be hard because

515
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 3: your man, Steven Gerrard, who you've been loving as a

516
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 3: manager because he comes from Liverpool. He's a Liverpool legend.

517
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 3: You love your Reds. You just want this guy to

518
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 3: succeed so that when Jurgen Klop graciously retires in thirty years,

519
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:16,160
Speaker 3: Gerrard steps over from Villa right to anfield. He gets

520
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 3: sacked and what happens shackles off baby Villa. They scored.

521
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 3: They basically covers it over and they covered like a

522
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 3: six touchdown spread and.

523
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 1: The Enemy of Manager watch.

524
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 3: I love that it was, you know Leon Bailey's guys

525
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 3: that you just didn't really hear that much under Under Gerrard,

526
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 3: who Namori's coming in for Acid Villa Newcastle Rolling don't

527
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 3: want to step in front. Numbers not big enough on Villa,

528
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 3: but it would be Villa or nothing for me. You're

529
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 3: just not in your head. I can't believe you do

530
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 3: this to Gerard.

531
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 2: I like Gerard as a manager. I think he clearly

532
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 2: made them a much better defensive side and deserves credit

533
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 2: for that, and he has a clear track record of

534
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 2: being able to do that wherever he's gone. But look,

535
00:23:58,160 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 2: at some point you have to turn the throttle and

536
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 2: he ever did and never figured out how to do that,

537
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 2: and I and you know he had to go for it.

538
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 2: They made a small change. They dropped John McGinn, who

539
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 2: was not offering it ti on in the midfield, and

540
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 2: they brought on Bundia and played an extra attack to

541
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 2: John m.

542
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 3: Again who Gerrard made captain and isolated Tyrone.

543
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 2: Yeah. I tried to avoid that, but you know you

544
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 2: wouldn't let me. Yeah, So there are criticisms to be

545
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 2: levied at mister Gerrard, and I think that Villa clearly

546
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 2: an improved side. Now you can look at their underlying

547
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 2: numbers which still weren't even that bad under Gerrard, and

548
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 2: their expected threat was positive. They're expected goal difference now

549
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 2: after last week is uh, you know, right around even

550
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 2: so this is still a team that should finish right

551
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 2: around the mid table in tenth or eleventh, right, And

552
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 2: I think Newcastle is a better team. They're at home,

553
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 2: so I don't love the number here, but I mean,

554
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 2: look at the market respect for Villa, and the market

555
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 2: never gave up on them and I haven't either, So

556
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 2: this is not the spot where we back Villa. I

557
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 2: didn't bet them last week because I love Brentford too

558
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 2: much to do it, but I was, I was staring

559
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 2: at that line for a long time and just couldn't

560
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 2: ultimately get there. But I think, like the players are

561
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 2: too good at the end of the day, the attacking talent,

562
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 2: they have, the defensive solidity, like they're they're too good

563
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 2: of a team to languish, you know, near the bottom.

564
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 2: And I'm feeling so much better about our our top

565
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 2: Midlands bet right now.

566
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 3: DJ, you're going back to the well, you're well, it's

567
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,120
Speaker 3: very lonely well out there in Iowa.

568
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: I was on a lonely place, Michael. Wonderful. We have

569
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 1: wonderful big cities and animals and such. Yeah, so we'll

570
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 1: talk about un I Amory probably next podcast, because I

571
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: don't think he's going to be managing on Sunday. I

572
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 1: think there's a work permit thing that's going on, so

573
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: I don't think he's actually going to be in the dugout.

574
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: And I mean, listen, I could I could sit here

575
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 1: and say like, hey, Villa's offense started trend upwards after

576
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: that performance, or I could tell you how poor they

577
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 1: were under Jerrard. But the reality is is when you

578
00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: look at Newcastle's defense, like they've been incredibly impressed against

579
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 1: non Big six sides, Like if you go through their schedule,

580
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 1: point three allowed to Forest, point seven allowed to Wolves,

581
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 1: one to Palace, point seven to Bournemouth, point five to Fulham,

582
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 1: one point two to Brentford, there was a penalty in there,

583
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: and then point two and one shot to Everton. Like

584
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: the defense has been incredibly impressive. So I'm not really sure,

585
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,439
Speaker 1: you know, because Aistonville is probably gonna get Field tilted.

586
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 1: They're going to get pinned in their own final third

587
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: and they're going to try to basically, you know, counter

588
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 1: attack out of that under you know, caretaker manager, I'm

589
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 1: not so sure they're going to be able to provide

590
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 1: anything forward in terms of actually threatening Newcastle's goal. On

591
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: the flip side of that, obviously, Anthony mentioned their defense

592
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 1: has been incredibly good and the other top six and

593
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: expected goals allowed, their top five and progressive passes and

594
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: dribbles allowed, but they're pretty average of playing through pressure

595
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: and Newcastle has forced the most tight turnovers in the

596
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 1: Premier League. So I'm just really worried about how Astonville

597
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 1: is going to actually threaten Newcastle's goal. Flip side of that,

598
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: Newcastle offensively e shocks still owed. Looks like Alan sat

599
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 1: Maxman's probably not going to play. So you know, I've

600
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 1: bolteam to score. No projected at minus one twenty six.

601
00:26:57,520 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 1: So at plus one oh five, I like the value there.

602
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 2: I don't know, it could be scary. They might go

603
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 2: for it Villa ball to the wall. They could they

604
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 2: fell out for the goal, have some I don't know.

605
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 1: It's you know, I've regretted a lot of bets in

606
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 1: my life. I'll just regret another one. Who cares?

607
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 3: Speaking of regranting a bet Fulham and Everdon falling plus

608
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 3: one thirty seven.

609
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 1: Another derby, Michael Everton.

610
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Marco Silver Derby at Craven Cottage, Everton plus

611
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 3: two hundred, the draw is plus two forty. No need

612
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 3: to get into the Falling defense. Everybody knows terrible. They

613
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 3: are two wins, one draw and then things too. Hey, No,

614
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 3: they're they're Everden's defense is fine. They are very good

615
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 3: at the seed possession they'll let you carry the ball

616
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 3: in deep and then Connor Cody and James Tarkowski or

617
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 3: Jordan Pickford, the three best shot blockers in the on

618
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 3: planet Earth, we'll get in front of it. The fourth

619
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 3: best shot blocker, of course is Vitally Mikolenko. They might

620
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 3: get Nathan Patterson back, which is helpful. Alex will be

621
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 3: looking satters like teams.

622
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: I've just thrown my hands on them both, these teams,

623
00:27:58,280 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 1: like it's just I don't know.

624
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 2: I somehow went from the high man on Fulham to

625
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 2: like fading them and losing the last two weeks.

626
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm just throwing my hands upon lot.

627
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 2: I think I could you guys, I loved them coming

628
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 2: in this season. They played well, then they like looked

629
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 2: like they were clearly about the regrets, and then they decided, Nope,

630
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 2: we're not doing that. We're just going to be in

631
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 2: the top half of the table.

632
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 3: Can I make your case for everten here something I

633
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 3: rarely do. Go ahead Everton against non Big seven sides.

634
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 3: I'm including Newcastle and in.

635
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 1: That matter took one shot I guess seventeen right, but

636
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: they played the Big seven.

637
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 3: It's it's it's it's a different story. But three to

638
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 3: three and one against non big seven side Window lost.

639
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 3: They only lost king to Steven Gerard's as the Villa

640
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 3: ten goals for, six goals against and a just under

641
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 3: fifty percent expected goal share, so it's not terrible at all.

642
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 3: And the defensive numbers are better they and they're high

643
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 3: because of that Villa match where they gave up like

644
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 3: two point eight expected goals, so a little skewed that way.

645
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 2: But like you can't just take out their matches, of.

646
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 3: Course, you ken when you cause look at who they're playing.

647
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 3: They're playing full of We're not talking about them playing City,

648
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 3: We're not talking about them playing Tottenham.

649
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 2: They it all counts though, like this expected goals to

650
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 2: you know, Chelsea man United Tottenham, Like they conceded two

651
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 2: and a half to Tottenham, who couldn't do anything against

652
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 2: anybody else, Like that's I don't know, Like Everton's last

653
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 2: two way matches in the league they didn't take a

654
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 2: shot for they took one shot in one hundred and

655
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 2: thirty five minutes. That like scares the hell out of

656
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 2: me in this situation. That's my read on this match.

657
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 2: Like to like Everton have put in some decent home performances.

658
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 2: Like I thought they were fine against United, I thought

659
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 2: they were good against Palace, but like this team away

660
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 2: from home, they.

661
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 3: Didn't get They were Brazil nineteen ninety eight against Palace,

662
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 3: they were ridiculous.

663
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 1: This is this is the easiest pass on the board.

664
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, I always end up betting that match.

665
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: But I honestly, I texted Anthony, I thought they were

666
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 1: going to price full them at even money. I swear

667
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: to god, I thought they were going to do it

668
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: and I would have to muster up the courage and

669
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 1: I'd have to listen to Mike clone have to take Everton.

670
00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: But thank god in the market didn't do that, So

671
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 1: market doesn't laugh on that much.

672
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 2: I'm happily passing moves strongly against them in the Villa match.

673
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 2: And then, by the way.

674
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: Steven Gerard had the hat trick that's never been done

675
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: in the Premier League before. Own goal, own goal, concede

676
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 1: a penalty and yet a red card never happened to

677
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 1: the Premier League before and a half yeah in a

678
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: half yeah, So that ended up getting him sacked.

679
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 3: That's the twelve thirty pm kickoff on Saturday.

680
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: Why is that match at twelve thirty.

681
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 3: It's a headliner, like you said, Marco Silva stuff. I mean, yeah,

682
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 3: I match at the Cottage, especially at that time of day.

683
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 3: Two nice nice evening match over there. But there's also

684
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 3: two forty five pm match on Saturday as well. Liverpool

685
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 3: minus three hundred leads plus seven fifty on the road

686
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 3: with Drus plus four fifty. This is a tough one

687
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: for Anthony, his favorite team against his third favorite manager. Well,

688
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 3: I guess second favorite manager now that Gerrard's gone in

689
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 3: the Premier League. Cannot trust Liverpool's defense. It seems like

690
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 3: they just you know, just alternate rate performances and bad

691
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 3: ones and usually the great ones come against I ax,

692
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 3: it's just the way leads play. I think just it

693
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,239
Speaker 3: kind of plays right into Liverpool's hands here. So it's

694
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 3: a little scary to back leads at this number. I

695
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 3: think we could see it, you know, like a five

696
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 3: to two kind of style game.

697
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 1: But that's what I said against Nottingham.

698
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 3: Force, pretty sure, right, there were eight big scoring chances

699
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 3: creating and only one of them. I mean, when Dean

700
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 3: Henderson's wearing a hat, you're not scoring, right, I got

701
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 3: nothing here. I'm going to be passing entirely. This could

702
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 3: be jesse Marsh's swan song depending on how this is.

703
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 1: What jesse Marsh sacked potentially getting sacked man.

704
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 3: Anthony, What what do you have for Leads and Liverpool?

705
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 2: Like, I didn't think Liverpool were nearly as good as

706
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 2: the score line indicated today. You know you watched the

707
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 2: first half of that match. I ax was the better

708
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 2: side for about two thirds of the first half, so

709
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 2: you do the math. Thirty minutes I thought I played

710
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 2: well actually and troubled Liverpool quite a bit early, created

711
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 2: over one expected goal in totality, Like it was not

712
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 2: a particularly impressed with Liverpool performance. They are still a

713
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 2: disaster defensively, and I think Leads is the biggest positive

714
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 2: regression candidate in this entire league, along with west Ham.

715
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 2: All you have to do is just sort the XG

716
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 2: table and it'll tell you the truth. Like David Moyes

717
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 2: and Jesse Marsh are doing fine jobs this year. Their

718
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 2: teams have had some bad variants, Like I understand the

719
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 2: case because Leads And the biggest problem with Leads right

720
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 2: now is Patrick Bamford. He's not fit. He is not

721
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 2: close to one hundred percent they're playing him, he's missing chances,

722
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 2: he's not quite clicking and it's killing them. But like

723
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:36,239
Speaker 2: they still have a ton of other talent that can

724
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 2: cause a ton of promise for Liverpool. Thiago doesn't look

725
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 2: like he's going to be playing. Klopp did not seem

726
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 2: too optimistic about his situation when he spoke in front

727
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 2: of the i AX match. So, like, there's a lot

728
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 2: of red red flags here. You know, there's a few

729
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 2: different ways to attack this match, you know, I mean,

730
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 2: like both teams to score over two and a half

731
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 2: is even money. But also I kind of just want

732
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 2: to take leads on the spread here, maybe split a

733
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: unit on the first half spread, because I do think

734
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 2: that leads will cause problems for Liverpool, because what do

735
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 2: we know about Liverpool their biggest problem in years past.

736
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 2: I agree, like the matchup is bad because Liverpool is

737
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 2: normally like a pressing monster and can run forever and

738
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 2: you can't beat them at their own game. But that's

739
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 2: not the Liverpool we've seen this year. The Liverpool we've

740
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 2: seen this year has been very vulnerable and very uncertain

741
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 2: on the ball and very not good at winning the

742
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 2: ball back off opponents. So I think leads can cause

743
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 2: problems for them in a way, and I thought i'd

744
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 2: get a better beat tots number, maybe like a leads

745
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 2: to score first half. I don't know exactly where I'm

746
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 2: going to go with this yet. I have to kind

747
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 2: of think about it more because I don't like, I

748
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 2: still don't trust leads late in this game, if it's

749
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 2: like two to one, they're chasing the goal, they go

750
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 2: down three to one, I feel like I'm on the

751
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 2: right side and I lose, Like I think there's a

752
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: very real possibility that happens, but overall definitely will be

753
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 2: playing leads in some fashion in this match. Stay tuned

754
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 2: to the Action Network cap to.

755
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 3: See how Let's hop to Sunday. Now we'll talk ten

756
00:33:56,040 --> 00:34:00,719
Speaker 3: am kickoff Arsenal minus five point fifty at home posting

757
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 3: red hot, nodding a forest just off that brilliant win

758
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 3: at the City Ground against Liverpool forced fourteen to one

759
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 3: on the money line, the draws plus six fifty. You

760
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 3: know I was telling you guys before the season start,

761
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 3: the Steve Cooper guy, hell of a manager. I think

762
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 3: I'm starting to get rewarded for that. He's starting to

763
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 3: get rewarded. The team's starting to get rewarded. They can

764
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,720
Speaker 3: give Arsenal maybe some trouble here, but I don't think

765
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 3: I'll be interested here in the back to back magic.

766
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 3: So I'll be passing. But you two are both on

767
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,760
Speaker 3: the same bet, BJ, I'll let you go first.

768
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like one hundred three goals of plus one fifteen.

769
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 1: I think the totals that Tad inflated here. I think

770
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,399
Speaker 1: it has a lot of to do with the fact that,

771
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 1: on paper, Noddingham Forrest's defense is really really bad. You know,

772
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 1: they've allowed twenty three goals this season. You know it

773
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 1: is off nineteen expected, but you've seen it. And this

774
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 1: is kind of how regression works. And then why we

775
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 1: talk about aggression so much is that notting in Force

776
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: has gotten quite lucky defensively over their last few matches.

777
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 1: They obviously allowed over two expected goals to Brighten, over

778
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:01,280
Speaker 1: two expected goals to Liverpool and they end up not conceding.

779
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 1: So now you come into this match against Arsenal. Now

780
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 1: there is some you know, worrying signs for Arsenal that

781
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: maybe they're not the best team in the Premier League.

782
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 1: I'm not ready to you know all everybody about those

783
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 1: but with that big. Now they've they've only you know,

784
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 1: they created only point seven against Leads, only point eight

785
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 1: against Southampton. And the biggest thing for me in this

786
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 1: match is that and Arteta did this against Leads and

787
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 1: he did it against Southampton is that from time to

788
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: time Arsenal when they when they go ahead, they get

789
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 1: incredibly conservative and they basically just sit back and allow

790
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 1: their opponent to essentially control the ball and let them

791
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 1: do whatever they want. You saw it against Leeds in

792
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: the second half and then you know Southampton was able

793
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: to get back into the match against Arsenal. So for

794
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 1: a match like this where if Arsenal goes up early,

795
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 1: I mean we could see them, you know, just basically

796
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 1: put on the handbreak here and you know, try not

797
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 1: to allow anybody anybody not allowed, not even forced to score.

798
00:35:57,840 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 1: I mean Arsenal from an even game state or play

799
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 1: with the lead. They're allowing under one to expect a

800
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 1: goal for you know, per ninety minutes. They're the second

801
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 1: best defense in the Premier League, only behind City. You know,

802
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: they're number one in progressive passes and dribbles allowed. They've

803
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 1: only allowed five big scoring chances on the season, so

804
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 1: I have concerns of how Nottingham for US is actually

805
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 1: gonna get at this Arsenal defense because they are incredibly

806
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 1: reliant on big scoring chances, like they're not taking a

807
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 1: high number of shots. So I don't think we're going

808
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 1: to see the offensive just explosion like we saw against

809
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 1: Liverpool where they created five big scoring or four big

810
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 1: scoring chances and over two expected goals. And I think

811
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 1: we just have, honestly just a total that's a tad

812
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 1: inflated for a really good Arsenal team and an Arsenal

813
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,839
Speaker 1: offense that has been running a little hot. I'll say,

814
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: and you know, I only have two point eight goals projected,

815
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 1: so under three goals at plus one fifteen is good

816
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: enough for me.

817
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 2: It's time to have the conversation be it's not No,

818
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 2: it's not Gabrielle Jay Zeus.

819
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 1: He's fine.

820
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 2: Nixt point one expected goal, pretty good, five goals. He's

821
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 2: doing it again.

822
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, he'll be fine.

823
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 2: And Arsenal is running six goals above their expected numbers

824
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,879
Speaker 2: as a team, despite the guy who takes the most

825
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:06,760
Speaker 2: shots not being good at finishing. And you mentioned it.

826
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 2: It wasn't just that they went to Bodo Glimpt created

827
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 2: a under one expected goal. I know that they rotated

828
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,760
Speaker 2: the team for that, but when you look across the board,

829
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 2: there are signs that, Okay, Arsenal played an incredible eight

830
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 2: or so matches. They deserve to be top of the

831
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 2: table based on those performances, but they were so much

832
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 2: better than they were last year that the reality of

833
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 2: the team is probably in the middle. And I think

834
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 2: that's where we're coming down to. Now. Where do I

835
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 2: expect Arsenal to put up under one expected goal at

836
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 2: home against not Eam Forrest, No, but I do think

837
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 2: the totals inflated. I agree with bj on that the

838
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 2: scary thing is that most of these flatter, offensive attacking

839
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 2: performances have come on the road. They have been still

840
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 2: excellent at home. But again, I still think this is

841
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:54,359
Speaker 2: more a matter of Arsenal is just not going to

842
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,479
Speaker 2: click at the level that it did in those first

843
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 2: eight matches, because they are going to regress from that

844
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 2: high and they're still going to be a top comfortably

845
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 2: top four team. I'm feeling very good about my my

846
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 2: Arsenal top four tickets, but I do think that this

847
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:10,320
Speaker 2: is a bad spot for them. They have to go

848
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 2: to Eindhoven on Thursday too, so again a bad rest spot.

849
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 2: Give me the under three plus money.

850
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, Arsenals only allowed four point four expected goals in

851
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 1: five home matches, so it's yeah.

852
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 2: They're dominant defense. They've been path to goals here and.

853
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 1: Arsenal's only scored over three goals once and it was

854
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:29,320
Speaker 1: against Leicster. So like, I mean, obviously we'd like to

855
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 1: talk about xtually. They haven't created over three x she

856
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 1: against anybody, so if you truly believed in an audience,

857
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 1: force is not even going to threaten Arsenal's goal. I

858
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 1: mean under three you know plus numbers is a pretty decent.

859
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 2: Price, and they've been resilient defensively. I mean they should

860
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 2: have conceded multiple to Brighton, Like, I.

861
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 1: Mean, it's going to be Arsenals not gonna get off

862
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 1: a ton of shots, you know, Forrest gonna play a

863
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 1: little block and you.

864
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 2: Know, I think it'll be too. But I'm not like

865
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 2: I like the under three plus money. I think it's

866
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 2: too high. I make it out little under three.

867
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 3: Actually, there was a lot of fun to listen to

868
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 3: you too, getting along.

869
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 2: Evidence it'll I mean that's well, BJ and I have

870
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 2: just agre on our two favorite teams all year, So yeah,

871
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 2: I think our opinions are converging on them.

872
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: That was very nice.

873
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,840
Speaker 3: That was very nice to hear. Yeah, Arsenal's defensive numbers

874
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 3: at Homer they're tad skewed because they didn't have to

875
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 3: deal with Everton that that game got canceled.

876
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 2: And they got to play Tottenham, who thinks so can.

877
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 1: They got to play Liverpool too, And of course keep.

878
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 3: In mind that under bet that the number is going

879
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 3: to tick up if Dean Henderson isn't wearing a hat. True,

880
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 3: so you might be able at three the Emirates.

881
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: The Emirates, the stands are pretty high, so I don't

882
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 1: think he'll need to wear the hat with to block

883
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 1: the sun to highly kick.

884
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 3: Twelve fifteen on Sunday, last Premier League match on the

885
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 3: docket the Doozy United or minus one forty three at

886
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 3: home against west Ham plus three seventy five. The draws

887
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 3: three to one. Love west Ham. Here the defense has

888
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:54,320
Speaker 3: just been outrageously good for the Hammers. David Moy's best

889
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 3: manager in the world not named Frank Lampard, I guess

890
00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 3: second in non penalty e spectacles allowed for ninety six,

891
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 3: some shots left six and expected threat fifth and big

892
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 3: scoring chances allowed. They should be able to contain this

893
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 3: United attack. The United's offense is trending, defense has been

894
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 3: better lately, but there's another fatigue issue here at United

895
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,880
Speaker 3: have played the European matches, They've been traveling all over Europe,

896
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 3: so West ham should catch them. I think I don't know.

897
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 3: I like Hammers here a lot, and I know BJ's

898
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 3: gonna agree with me, so I'll go with Anthony first.

899
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 2: I got no bet here. I think United's really turned

900
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 2: the corner. I think there may have made clear improvements.

901
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 2: I think there's a limit to how much better they

902
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 2: are because they're don't really have a good striker right

903
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 2: now and Ronaldo out that's an upgrade, like Anthony and

904
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 2: Sancho are fine. I think they're still like problems, but

905
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:53,439
Speaker 2: Casimiro has clearly improved them in the midfield. Rashford being

906
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 2: informed is to clearly improve their attack. Bruno's Bruno playing

907
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 2: like Bruno did before last year's disaster. So like, there's

908
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 2: a lot to like about Man United, including Martinez defensively,

909
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 2: so I don't want to fade them. I think they're

910
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 2: trending up, how far up and how much market respect

911
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 2: they get going forward may lead me to betting against

912
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 2: them once again. But I've I've taken a break from

913
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 2: my United fades for the last three weeks, and I

914
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 2: think they would be smart to continue to do that.

915
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 2: But you guys love your Hammers.

916
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 3: We love them.

917
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, EJ Longs fading United. I didn't have to start

918
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 2: trolling him on Twitter.

919
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 1: If yeah, I mean, okay, I'll say this, okay, Like

920
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 1: my tune has kind of changed. Like the last performance

921
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 1: is obviously we're very impressive, and you're right, Anthony, that

922
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 1: Cassamiro has made them a lot, a lot better because

923
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 1: now it allows Fred and their other midfielders to go

924
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 1: up and press higher up the pitch and they're not

925
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: as exposed in transition defense. So and truly they have

926
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 1: been better that way. But to poke some holes in

927
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 1: their last two performances against you know, obviously the perm

928
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 1: they deserve to win, Chelsea, they obviously deserve to win.

929
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 1: But I mean they created two point three expect goles

930
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 1: off forty three shots like that is incredibly inefficient. And

931
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 1: now they're going against a west Ham defense that it's

932
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 1: interesting because the first three matches of the season. I

933
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 1: think we're all like starting to write off west Ham,

934
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 1: starting to write off David Moyes, like, oh my gosh,

935
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 1: like the bad defense where they had a ton of

936
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 1: injuries last year, Like, you know, it's rearing as ugly head,

937
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 1: Like how long is Moy's gonna last? You know, they

938
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 1: got dominated by City, you know, the Forest match got

939
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,319
Speaker 1: you know, out of hand, and then Brighton pretty much

940
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 1: outplayed them, you know, at the Olympic Stadium. But since

941
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 1: that match against Brighton, only one team has created over

942
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 1: one expected gole against them, and it was at Liverpool.

943
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 1: They are allowing only point eight non penalty expected goles

944
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 1: per match, that is second in the Premier League, and

945
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 1: they have allowed just five big scoring chances since their

946
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 1: first three matches of the season. David Moyes is playing

947
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 1: an incredibly low block. They're like, I think they're fifth

948
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 1: to last in average defensive line. They're getting field tilted

949
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 1: at forty four percent. But guess what, it's been effective

950
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 1: and their offense is really starting to in the right direction.

951
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 1: Like you mentioned in the Last Goal podcast, Anthony Bowen

952
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:07,800
Speaker 1: is playing much better. Piketa obviously gives them a much

953
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:10,400
Speaker 1: better attacking threat, you know, in terms of ball progression.

954
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 1: So United at minus one forty three against how good

955
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 1: this defense has been. Like, that's a high price to

956
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 1: pay for United here. So I mean I only have

957
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 1: United projected at plus one seventeen, which I think is

958
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 1: a fair line, you know, given if we're just talking

959
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 1: about this year of how the performances of these two teams,

960
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 1: like you know, west Ham, like you mentioned off the

961
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 1: top of Anthony, like they they've underperformed, like they're deserving

962
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 1: of a couple of results here. You know, they got

963
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 1: a good result against Bournemouth, you know, held them to

964
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:39,359
Speaker 1: point four expected goals. So yeah, it's it's west Ham

965
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 1: or nothing here. So give me the Hammers plus half

966
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 1: a goal, plus one fifteen. I think that's tremendous value.

967
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 1: And let's just keep fading United. I guess it works

968
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 1: every time. Yeah, it works every single time. So who's

969
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 1: the United have on deck? I mean they got to

970
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 1: play Sheriff who's on new manager bounce on Thursday, so

971
00:43:56,680 --> 00:44:00,080
Speaker 1: you know, gosh.

972
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 2: They go to Socid like, oh gosh, then oh.

973
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 1: No, they get Villa back to back in the Premier

974
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 1: leaguain the BFL Cup.

975
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 2: I might be back to fading United.

976
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, I mean, I don't know where we're

977
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 1: going to stand in the europe player group. I have

978
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:19,839
Speaker 1: to check it. But its associate it as an in

979
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 1: tremendous form, so, oh my gosh, I can't wait to

980
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 1: bet four tickets.

981
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 3: All right, let's you know, we'll move over to Europe now,

982
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 3: speaking of associated will start with La Liga. But before

983
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 3: we do that, wonder Goal is presented by Bet three

984
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 3: six five, the world's favorite sports book brand. Sign up

985
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,279
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986
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:39,480
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987
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:43,280
Speaker 3: at one dollar at any game, get two hundred dollars three.

988
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 3: Let's talk Laaliga BJ, you and I hats off. You

989
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 3: know we tip our caps to a wonderful effort from

990
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 3: Athletic in the Champions League. The underdogs almost got through

991
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 3: the group stage into.

992
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 1: The nice times.

993
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,040
Speaker 3: They deserved it. What are you going to do? So

994
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 3: we'll miss them? But for now your favorite bet in

995
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 3: my league of this weekend.

996
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think about a month ago, I came on

997
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 1: here and I played a BTS no that was minus

998
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 1: one sixty. I got called insane. I got called crazy.

999
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:14,919
Speaker 1: I called a bunch of other names that I get

1000
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 1: called on the regular, which is not you know, all

1001
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 1: those are kind of true about me anyway. And I

1002
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 1: made it a point, Michael that I said, I'm gonna

1003
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 1: go circle spot where I think there's gonna be another

1004
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 1: BTS no at minus one sixty. I'm gonna come on

1005
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 1: here in this podcast and I'm gonna towt it out.

1006
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 1: And I found it a couple months ago, and I've

1007
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 1: had this circle for about a month. Lcha versus Guitafe.

1008
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 1: Both teams score no and minus one thirty. These are

1009
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 1: two of the worst offenses in all of Europe. Lja

1010
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 1: has created seven expected goals in eleven matches, Gatafe has

1011
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 1: created nine. Both these teams play five three twos. It's

1012
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 1: gonna be dueling five three to two versus five three two.

1013
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 1: If you ever visit the site the Analyst, which is

1014
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 1: powered by APTA, they have this wonderful feature that can

1015
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 1: show you essentially where teams on the pitch where they're

1016
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 1: dominating possession. Some boxes will turn up blue if you're

1017
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 1: dominating fifty five percent possession or more, and then red

1018
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 1: vice versa. These two teams the only place where they're

1019
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 1: dominating possession is in their own penalty area. Everywhere else

1020
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:14,839
Speaker 1: is red. So we have just a truly disgusting match.

1021
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:17,919
Speaker 1: But here's the best part, Michael. It's Monday night, It's

1022
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 1: Monday afternoon, prime time football. Both teams to score No

1023
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:24,920
Speaker 1: Lja Gitafe. It's going to be a wonderful match on

1024
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:29,280
Speaker 1: Monday minus one thirty. Nothing like a La Liga snoozer

1025
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 1: to help you start the worst week, I should say,

1026
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: nothing like a riveting snoozer to get you going through

1027
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,399
Speaker 1: the first day of the work week. Anthony, you got

1028
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 1: a bet in let League.

1029
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 3: I got nothing. I'm too distraught about at Letty.

1030
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, sorry boys, We'll save that for next week. But

1031
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 2: Girona Real Madrid. Both teams to score, Yes, at minus

1032
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:53,359
Speaker 2: one ten based on expected goals allowed. Real Madrid. We've

1033
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 2: talked about their defensive weaknesses and their liabilities, and we

1034
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 2: saw that they've been sleepwalking through matches the last few

1035
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 2: weeks and getting away with it. They did not get

1036
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 2: away with it against Leipzig in the Champions League, and

1037
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 2: I think Girunn's attack has actually shown some signs of life.

1038
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 2: I mean, they're a top half of the league by

1039
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 2: expected goals created over fourteen this season. I've been encouraged

1040
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 2: by what I've seen by them, and I think that

1041
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 2: they can get after a real defense that is vulnerable.

1042
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 2: So give me both teams to score, yes, minus one ten.

1043
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:20,400
Speaker 2: I think Rial could be.

1044
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 3: Flat all right, Bundesliga time, I'll go first. I like

1045
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 3: lot Bach plus two eighty on the road against hate

1046
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:31,920
Speaker 3: that team Unyan Berlin. Who do you hate more? Oh?

1047
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 2: I hate god Bach right now. I mean they totally

1048
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 2: no showed against Frankfurt last week. Somemr's been injured. He

1049
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 2: may be back, but it's not. It's not looking great

1050
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 2: for I mean, every time I think they're about to

1051
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 2: turn the corner is when they put in a stinker.

1052
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:45,360
Speaker 2: So it's been tough to back them right now.

1053
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:47,880
Speaker 3: This is a spot though, just if you look at

1054
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 3: the numbers, they just they're better than Unyan like and

1055
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 3: we know there's the story of Unyan that the movies,

1056
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 3: the movie that's being written for the Irons. But I'm

1057
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 3: just gonna keep doing it and betting against them. We

1058
00:47:57,680 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 3: loved them last year, not so much right now. So

1059
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 3: glad block Puss to eighty for me in Bundesliga BJ.

1060
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:07,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on that same match, and I'm gonna take

1061
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:10,359
Speaker 1: Unyan's under two and a half goals at minus one ten.

1062
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:14,360
Speaker 1: What's what's incredible about Unyan Berlin is that their matches,

1063
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:18,920
Speaker 1: if you take away penalties, they're averaging under two expected

1064
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:21,279
Speaker 1: goals per match in the Bundesliga of all places, Like

1065
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:24,399
Speaker 1: it's really insane to think about. They're only allowing nine

1066
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 1: point nine. They've only allowed nine point nine expected goals

1067
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:28,399
Speaker 1: and eleven matches. Like their defense and low block has

1068
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 1: been incredibly good, kind of like it was last season

1069
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 1: and glad block. I mean, they're they've been good offensively,

1070
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:36,320
Speaker 1: they've been pretty average defensively, but I really don't you

1071
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 1: know Somner's output. I'm gonna keep playing Blenn unders until

1072
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,360
Speaker 1: they lose. Obviously a lost against Bocum, but there was

1073
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 1: barely anything created in that match. So I'm just going

1074
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 1: to keep playing unders of Unyan Blen until they decide

1075
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 1: to provide any type of attacking threat and try to

1076
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 1: start to create consistently over one expected goal, because in

1077
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:59,399
Speaker 1: nine of their seventeen overall matches and all competitions, they

1078
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 1: have able to create over one aspected goal. Like It's

1079
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:03,920
Speaker 1: truly crazy what they're doing, and I hope they keep

1080
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:04,839
Speaker 1: doing it all season long.

1081
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:05,759
Speaker 3: Anthony, what do you get?

1082
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 2: Yeah? I like Stutgart Classic by low Sell High. Stutgart

1083
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 2: have lost for their last five in the Bundesliga. The

1084
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:14,759
Speaker 2: only one they had came at home against Bochum. They

1085
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 2: were minus one forty favorite. I looked at playing them,

1086
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 2: I passed. I regretted it immediately. They dominated that match.

1087
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 2: They were at home against a relegation level team. Stutgart

1088
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 2: is in the bottom three right now, but they're not

1089
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:27,760
Speaker 2: really a relegation team. You look at their underlying numbers.

1090
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 2: They're a slightly below average Bundesliga team. They host Osburg,

1091
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,440
Speaker 2: who is a relegation level team. Second worst team based

1092
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 2: on five thirty eight ratings based on expected goal difference.

1093
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:40,399
Speaker 2: Based on my numbers, Osburg stinks. They're really bad. They've

1094
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 2: gotten some good results in the last couple of weeks,

1095
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:45,919
Speaker 2: but they have mostly luck boxed their way through those.

1096
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 2: They have yet to get to ten expected goals in

1097
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 2: the league, only team not to do that through eleven matches.

1098
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:53,760
Speaker 2: I like Stuttgart at home only minus one fifteen feels

1099
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:54,279
Speaker 2: a little cheap.

1100
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:58,760
Speaker 3: Syria now, Anthony, you were on this quickly.

1101
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I put it in like as soon as the

1102
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:03,120
Speaker 2: matches came out. I know BIJA doesn't like Salarnyitana, but

1103
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:05,839
Speaker 2: they're actually doing some things that encourage me. You look

1104
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:08,279
Speaker 2: at their Cisco profile. I know that their expected goals

1105
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:11,319
Speaker 2: numbers are pretty mediocre, but let's compare them to the

1106
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 2: club based on what they did. You know, two years

1107
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:18,200
Speaker 2: ago they were a horrendous team in Saria. Beh. They

1108
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 2: made marginal improvement at the end of last season to

1109
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 2: pull off a great escape, sorry BJ, and they've taken

1110
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 2: another step forward this season. They're minus a half extreme

1111
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 2: difference per ninety, which is not good. But against a

1112
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 2: Loazzio team who continues to just be an average team

1113
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:35,479
Speaker 2: in Siria, they should not be catching over a goal.

1114
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 2: So I'll take Salarnyitana plus one point twenty five. Pretty

1115
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 2: encouragingly decent underlying numbers for Salarnitana in this situation. BJ.

1116
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 1: Syria, Ah yeah, Jose Mourinho minus one twenty h On

1117
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:53,879
Speaker 1: the road of Verona. Listen, I know Anthony's a smart guy,

1118
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 1: and I listened to him and I updated my priors

1119
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 1: on Verona and it turns out that they're really bad.

1120
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 1: They've lost six straight.

1121
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 2: Matches, they've can seed a ten point anymore.

1122
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 1: They've conceded ten point two expecting goals, they've only created

1123
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:09,040
Speaker 1: four point nine in those six matches. And defensively in

1124
00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 1: Syria A they've allowed they're allowing the third most shots,

1125
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 1: like the second highest expected threat. It's not good news

1126
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 1: when you're facing a Jose Marinho side that has just

1127
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:19,879
Speaker 1: been destroying a lesser competition. I mean, Rama has played

1128
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:22,320
Speaker 1: six matches against the bottom half of the Syria table.

1129
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:26,120
Speaker 1: They've created fifteen point one expected goals, fifteen big scoring

1130
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:28,720
Speaker 1: chances and are averaging around fifteen shots per ninety minutes.

1131
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:31,320
Speaker 1: And I mentioned this last week, but you know, Jose

1132
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 1: is just allowing teams to progress the ball up the

1133
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:36,320
Speaker 1: field against Rama like they're they're you know, the progressive

1134
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:38,440
Speaker 1: pass is allowed. Numbers aren't good, like they're eighteenth to

1135
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 1: pass per defensive action. So it's you know, it's it's

1136
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 1: one of those things that it's like, oh, yeah, you

1137
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:44,959
Speaker 1: can move the ball into the final third against Roma,

1138
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 1: but they are incredibly elite at defending their own box

1139
00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 1: and allowing point zero six x sheep per shot. They've

1140
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:53,719
Speaker 1: allowed two big scoring chances and only two teams have

1141
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 1: created over one expected goal against them in Syria, So

1142
00:51:56,800 --> 00:52:00,239
Speaker 1: minus one twenty I understand from a spot perspective if

1143
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 1: RAMA has a road trip to Finland on Thursday, but

1144
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 1: you know this is a Monday match, they'll get an

1145
00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:07,799
Speaker 1: extra day of rest. Minus one twenty is awfully cheap

1146
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 1: for Roma right now in legal BJ Yeah, let's just uh,

1147
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 1: let's try to fade to Claremont Foot. Not even money

1148
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:16,960
Speaker 1: at home, you know not. This is a big overperformer.

1149
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 1: Last season like that, minus eleven expected Goldiffrenchal finished in

1150
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:22,080
Speaker 1: tenth place, they won the French Cup, they got into

1151
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 1: the Europa League this season. You know, it's funny how

1152
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 1: these things kind of flipped a little bit. They're minus

1153
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:29,440
Speaker 1: six actual goal differential only minus two point five expected

1154
00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 1: goal differential, and they're taking on Claremont Foot, who is

1155
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:35,240
Speaker 1: in ninth, who has a negative eleven point five expected

1156
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 1: goal differential in twelve matches. They are coming off getting

1157
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:43,640
Speaker 1: obliterated by a horrible Breast team that in the previous

1158
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:47,279
Speaker 1: eight matches Breast created a total of five point four

1159
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:50,399
Speaker 1: expected goals. Claremont Foot allowed them to put on ages

1160
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 1: in counter attacking Clinic Breast created three expected goals despite

1161
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 1: holding thirty eight percent possession and defensively, Claremont Foot has

1162
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:00,880
Speaker 1: held one opponent under one expected goal of the season, so

1163
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 1: I have nots projected at minus one twenty. So I

1164
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:05,839
Speaker 1: think even money is awfully cheap for them at home.

1165
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:07,279
Speaker 1: Againts Clermont Foot all.

1166
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 3: Right now on two hour three like money line underdog parlay,

1167
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 3: this one's gonna hit. Pretty sure of it, Anthony, you

1168
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:16,720
Speaker 3: can go first.

1169
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna take Strasbourg plus two hundred at home.

1170
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 2: You could probably guess who they're playing. They're hosting Marseille.

1171
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 2: Strasburg is probably the most puzzling team in the all

1172
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 2: of Europe for me, based on what I expected them

1173
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:28,880
Speaker 2: to be at the beginning of the season and what

1174
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 2: they've actually been. And I know we've backed them on

1175
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:32,200
Speaker 2: this show. I think I put them as an underdog

1176
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago and they gave up a

1177
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 2: red card. They had a goal vart off and then

1178
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 2: con seated a red card like a minute later and

1179
00:53:38,600 --> 00:53:41,479
Speaker 2: got crushed, which has pretty much been their whole season.

1180
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:44,839
Speaker 2: They're in sixteenth. Their unknoine numbers are bad they are,

1181
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:47,799
Speaker 2: you know, somewhat of a positive regression candidate from just

1182
00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 2: like a talent perspective. I mean, they're much better than

1183
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 2: the sixteenth best team in France. They really should be

1184
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:54,520
Speaker 2: pushing for the top half of the table based on

1185
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:57,880
Speaker 2: the collection of players, and like, at some point, I

1186
00:53:57,920 --> 00:54:01,400
Speaker 2: just think that this has to turn around. Marseille has regressed.

1187
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:04,239
Speaker 2: They've lost three in a row in League on and

1188
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,319
Speaker 2: they lost in the Champions League. So the only win

1189
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 2: they've had in the last month was the game I

1190
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:13,080
Speaker 2: bet against them against Lisbon when they got two red cards.

1191
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:17,360
Speaker 2: So that is basically four straight dud performances from Marseille,

1192
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:20,319
Speaker 2: and I don't think they're a very good team, and

1193
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 2: I think they're going on the road against another not

1194
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:23,960
Speaker 2: very good team. But I'm getting plus two hundred to

1195
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:26,439
Speaker 2: fade them, and I think Strasburg is gonna start playing

1196
00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:27,240
Speaker 2: better at some point.

1197
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 3: Dead cat bounce, please please Strasburg. My favorite pooch is

1198
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:36,879
Speaker 3: west Ham. They're plus three seventy five on the road

1199
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 3: against Manchester United at cell high spot on United, who

1200
00:54:40,320 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 3: have lost one match it seems like in three months now,

1201
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:46,440
Speaker 3: and it was against man City they got pasted. But

1202
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 3: West Ham. They should profile well as a big underdog

1203
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 3: considering their defense second in non penalty expected goals allowed

1204
00:54:53,160 --> 00:54:56,359
Speaker 3: for ninety minutes six and shots allowed six inexpected threat

1205
00:54:56,400 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 3: and fifth and big scoring chances. We know that David

1206
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:02,319
Speaker 3: Moyes's side punch up really well as hundred draws of

1207
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:06,440
Speaker 3: the spot famously beat Liverpool last season. I like I

1208
00:55:06,520 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 3: like them to be able to do it again. So

1209
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 3: west Ham plus three seventy five, it's my dog bj.

1210
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 1: Bykano plus three ten on the road at Sevilla. You know,

1211
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:20,480
Speaker 1: Jorge Sampoli has come in and Sevilla is still just

1212
00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 1: as bad as ever. You know. They obviously their best

1213
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:26,799
Speaker 1: performance has honestly been against Dortmund in the second meeting,

1214
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:29,279
Speaker 1: where they held dormant a point four expected goals. Well,

1215
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 1: then they went on the road to My York Or

1216
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:32,959
Speaker 1: they won one nothing. They scored on their very first shot,

1217
00:55:32,960 --> 00:55:34,839
Speaker 1: which came in the fifty fifth minute. They created point

1218
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:38,920
Speaker 1: two expected goals. Then they hosted Valencia and just an

1219
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:41,880
Speaker 1: absolutely chaotic match that ended with the same penalty in

1220
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:44,799
Speaker 1: the one hundredth minute, but they lost the expected goals

1221
00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 1: battle one point eight to one point one. They go

1222
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:49,440
Speaker 1: to Real Madrid, they get absolutely pasted, and then they

1223
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:52,280
Speaker 1: played Copenhagen and the Champions League they won three to nothing.

1224
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 1: They lost the expected goals battle, so this team is

1225
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 1: still just as horrible as ever. And Viacano actually does

1226
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 1: have a positive expected goal of French all and is

1227
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:04,280
Speaker 1: sitting in the middle of the table. So I'm sorry, Sevilla,

1228
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:07,160
Speaker 1: who has you know? They're a minus one actually differential

1229
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 1: per ninety and we're twelve eleven matches into the law

1230
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 1: Leaga season. Like that's that's still really bad. Like there

1231
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 1: is really no signs that Sevia team is actually trending

1232
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 1: towards being back towards even in the top half the table.

1233
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:22,360
Speaker 1: So give me Vacano and continue on with the Sevilla fade.

1234
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:30,360
Speaker 3: West Dam Strasbourg and Vakano fifty seven to one. That

1235
00:56:30,560 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 3: money line partly pays out put a little extra Halloween

1236
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:35,759
Speaker 3: cash in your pocket, I think with that one, because

1237
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:38,759
Speaker 3: it feels like a lock. All right, let's move on

1238
00:56:38,840 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 3: to our favorite bets in the Premier League for this

1239
00:56:42,040 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 3: match week kicking off on Saturday, Anthony, what's your favorite bet?

1240
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 2: Tottenham and Bourne myth under two and a half goals

1241
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:53,320
Speaker 2: at minus one oh four. This number is just a

1242
00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 2: little bit too high for me when you look at

1243
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:59,240
Speaker 2: how bad Tottenham has been, not just on the road

1244
00:56:59,280 --> 00:57:01,719
Speaker 2: but as an attack unit. For the last month. They've

1245
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 2: really struggled to create consistent scoring chances that have not

1246
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:08,320
Speaker 2: come from set pieces. There is the concern about them

1247
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:11,719
Speaker 2: against Bournemouth here, with Bournemouth being pretty leaky defensively on

1248
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:15,879
Speaker 2: set pieces, but Tottenham without Rashard Lessen and without Koulisseevsky

1249
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 2: does not look like the same level of attacking team.

1250
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:21,360
Speaker 2: They've clearly regressed from the highs of last season and

1251
00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:26,600
Speaker 2: Spurs defensively still defend the penalty area really well. Bournemouth

1252
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:29,959
Speaker 2: major negative regression candidate. In attack. They've only created seven

1253
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:33,240
Speaker 2: expected goals this year. That's a huge red flag. That

1254
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:35,720
Speaker 2: is by far the fewest in the league, and that

1255
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 2: is a league that includes Wolves. So I like the

1256
00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 2: other two and a half in this match, I think

1257
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 2: it's going to be a tight affair. Spurs probably win,

1258
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 2: but it will be low scoring.

1259
00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 3: I like Brighton and Hove Albion at home there plus

1260
00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:51,919
Speaker 3: one eighty seven hosting Chelsea. This is a cell high

1261
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 3: spot on Chelsea. They look great according to their with

1262
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 3: lost record under Graham Potter. They've you have to lose

1263
00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:01,120
Speaker 3: in nine matches, six wins, three draws. But Chelsea played

1264
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:03,880
Speaker 3: eight matches since October. First five matches in the last

1265
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 3: two weeks have been on the road and their defensive

1266
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 3: numbers are not all that impressive five point two expected

1267
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:11,680
Speaker 3: goals allowed in that last four matches. Quality competition not

1268
00:58:11,760 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 3: that great, so I think in the Graham Potter Darby

1269
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 3: Potter's former team Brighton, we'll get the job done at

1270
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:22,840
Speaker 3: plus one eighty seven BJ take us home.

1271
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:25,800
Speaker 1: Us TAM plus half a goal plus one fifteen at

1272
00:58:25,840 --> 00:58:30,240
Speaker 1: Old Trafford on Sunday at eleven thirty Eastern time. Manchester

1273
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 1: United has put in two great performances. They were by

1274
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 1: far the better team against Tottenham. They were by far

1275
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 1: the better team against Chelsea. You know, Casamiro is starting

1276
00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 1: to really play like the guy he was at Real

1277
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 1: Madrid and helping Manchester United guys like Fred and other

1278
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:44,000
Speaker 1: midfielders be able to press higher up the pitch than

1279
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:46,760
Speaker 1: so he can stop opposing counter attacks, but to poke

1280
00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:49,920
Speaker 1: some holes. In United's last two matches they created two

1281
00:58:49,960 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 1: point three expected goals off of forty three shots. That

1282
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:56,200
Speaker 1: is incredibly inefficient going against the west Ham defense that

1283
00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 1: is the second best in the Premier League by expected goals.

1284
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: They're allowing only point eight eight non penalty expected goals

1285
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 1: per match this season. After three matches against Man City,

1286
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:08,560
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest and Brighton, west Ham did not look good.

1287
00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:10,960
Speaker 1: It looked like David Moyes's job might be in jeopardy.

1288
00:59:11,360 --> 00:59:14,320
Speaker 1: Since that Brighton match, only one team has created more

1289
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:16,320
Speaker 1: than one expected goal against west Ham and it was

1290
00:59:16,360 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 1: Liverpool at Anfield. So this west Ham defense, the low

1291
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:22,240
Speaker 1: block that they're playing, has been incredibly and effective and

1292
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 1: I think be very difficult for United to actually get

1293
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:26,520
Speaker 1: any kind of chance of quality if there's gonna be

1294
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:28,400
Speaker 1: keep taking a ton of shots that are really low

1295
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 1: quality against this great, great low blocks. So give me

1296
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,160
Speaker 1: west Ham plus half a goal plus one fifteen on

1297
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:36,520
Speaker 1: the road, all right.

1298
00:59:36,640 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 2: Union host NYCFC Sunday MLS Cup Semifinal, Eastern Conference Final.

1299
00:59:41,920 --> 00:59:45,680
Speaker 2: That is the revenge spot of the year for my Union.

1300
00:59:46,080 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 2: Last year they played in the conference final. Union were

1301
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 2: out seven starters due to COVID. They made them play anyway.

1302
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:55,960
Speaker 2: It was a travesty, a disgrace to the sport. You're

1303
00:59:55,960 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 2: at home. I actually think the numbers about right. But

1304
00:59:58,920 --> 01:00:03,920
Speaker 2: I'm mazed all that after all that may because that

1305
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:05,840
Speaker 2: is all time revenge COVID.

1306
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:10,000
Speaker 3: On that note, an apology for for Anthony but for

1307
01:00:10,040 --> 01:00:13,000
Speaker 3: b J Cunningham. I'm Michael Leeboff. Thank you for listening

1308
01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:15,960
Speaker 3: to Wondergolt. We'll see you again on Monday morning. Until

1309
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:19,400
Speaker 3: that time, best of luck with all your bets in

1310
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:20,680
Speaker 3: the Premier League and beyond.