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Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the volume,
Speaker 1: Happy Thursday again, everybody. We're gonna be hitting the rest
Speaker 1: of the slate from the Christmas Day games. Two games
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do deep dives on Spurs Knicks as well
Speaker 1: as Sixers Celtics. The other two games I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: give a couple of quick takeaways on before we get
Speaker 1: out of here today. You guys know the drill before
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Speaker 1: the year. Make sure you guys follow us there in
Speaker 1: the last but not at least keep dropping mailbag questions
Speaker 1: and those YouTube comments for our Friday mailbags throughout the
Speaker 1: rest of the season. All right, let's get started. I
Speaker 1: want to get down to that McHale Bridges Victor Wempin
Speaker 1: Yama shootout that we had to start the day yesterday,
Speaker 1: A couple of really great games to start the day.
Speaker 1: I want to start with this concept of mid range rhythm,
Speaker 1: so Mickkeel Bridges, we had a couple examples of this
Speaker 1: last night. Michel Bridges got crazy hot from mid range.
Speaker 1: Bradley Beal got really hot from the mid range in
Speaker 1: the Denver Nuggets game. There's this thing that happens when
Speaker 1: we talk about the shots in basketball, where we focus
Speaker 1: a lot on the large sample without acknowledging some of
Speaker 1: the realities of the way basketball games can go that
Speaker 1: are difficult to quantify, that are things that know sort
Speaker 1: of mathematical concept would be able to account for. So,
Speaker 1: for example, if we're listed, if we're listing the types
Speaker 1: of shots that any player can get in a game,
Speaker 1: you're gonna put mid range jump shot off the dribble
Speaker 1: towards the very end, right, The only worst shot that
Speaker 1: a mid range jump shot off the dribble is like
Speaker 1: a smothered, like really heavily contested mid range jump shot
Speaker 1: off the dribble. But if we're listing shots right, like,
Speaker 1: you want like an uncontested rim attempt, and then like
Speaker 1: an uncontested three point attempt, and then there's various shots
Speaker 1: that we could get to. But at the very end
Speaker 1: of that list is going to be that mid range
Speaker 1: jump shooting piece, right, And the main reason why is
Speaker 1: because it's a jump shot, so there's you know, a
Speaker 1: chance it's gonna miss, a pretty good chance it's gonna miss,
Speaker 1: and two it's only worth two points. Right, So when
Speaker 1: it comes to jump shooting, you want to try to
Speaker 1: generate as many threes as possible because you make up
Speaker 1: for the volatility in the variants with that extra point,
Speaker 1: which is gonna manifest in more points than a larger sample. However,
Speaker 1: for a jump shooter, what's an easier shot a good
Speaker 1: like a jump shooter that's come trouble in the mid range.
Speaker 1: There are a lot of jump shooters that just don't
Speaker 1: practice the mid range at all. I would recommend against that.
Speaker 1: I think it's important in skill development to be well rounded.
Speaker 1: But there is a for most shooters that are good shooters,
Speaker 1: that are balanced, versatile shooters. A little ten to fifteen
Speaker 1: footer is an easier shot than a twenty five footer, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, like, it's no different than the free throw line, right, Like,
Speaker 1: it's just closer to the basket. The rim can fit
Speaker 1: two basketballs in there, right, So like there's quite a
Speaker 1: bit of margin for error, and the greatest shooters in
Speaker 1: the world can knock them down from twenty five feet.
Speaker 1: But when you get into a rhythm, that little ten
Speaker 1: to fifteen footer, it's not just a shot you can make.
Speaker 1: It's a shot you can make over and over and
Speaker 1: over again. There's a rhythm in flow to basketball. When
Speaker 1: you generate an open shot, it is not like you
Speaker 1: pull the slot machine, lever and just pray it goes
Speaker 1: in right, Like the shot of your goes in or doesn't,
Speaker 1: based on a bunch of different factors that extend to
Speaker 1: the flow of the possession leading into the shot, but
Speaker 1: also the skill development of the player and whether or
Speaker 1: not that player is currently feeling very confident and currently
Speaker 1: trusting his form and in good rhythm with his jump shot,
Speaker 1: or like you could run great offense, but the ball
Speaker 1: can end up in a player's hands who's been slumping
Speaker 1: pretty bad and is struggling with confidence and doesn't seem
Speaker 1: to be, you know, really comfortable with his form, and
Speaker 1: that shot might not go in right. There's all these
Speaker 1: different factors that go into it, but when it comes down,
Speaker 1: there's a reason why that mid range jump shot is
Speaker 1: still so valuable to the great scorers in this league.
Speaker 1: It's because, in a late game situation, if you are
Speaker 1: in rhythm and and flow, that's a shot that you
Speaker 1: feel really good about knocking down. You can get into
Speaker 1: a rhythm where you knock it down again and again
Speaker 1: and again. When it comes to three point shooting, there's
Speaker 1: a lot more volatility, of a lot of more volatility
Speaker 1: that can come with it. But three point shooting, ironically
Speaker 1: is its own great example, because we've seen three point
Speaker 1: shooters get hot and make three after three after three, right,
Speaker 1: So now you can imagine that same rhythm and flow
Speaker 1: that players can get into, but move it in ten
Speaker 1: feet and it just goes to an even greater level.
Speaker 1: And I thought that was fascinating because again, like McHale
Speaker 1: bridges again and again down the stretch of that game,
Speaker 1: took shots that in a lot of cases are viewed
Speaker 1: as bad shots, but it won them a game because
Speaker 1: it was a shot that Mikail felt comfortable with and
Speaker 1: he entered into that zone and he just wasn't going
Speaker 1: to miss it. And I think again, like this is
Speaker 1: where that concept of basketball being more art than science
Speaker 1: comes into play. You want to try to target every
Speaker 1: mathematical advantage that you can. You want to hire as
Speaker 1: many statistical analysts as you can, to be as plugged
Speaker 1: into the data as you possibly can, to gain every
Speaker 1: little advantage that you can. Right, But at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, basketball has so many factors, so many variables,
Speaker 1: it is impossible to actually solve. And at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, you want players playing in flow, and
Speaker 1: you want them playing in rhythm and that might dictate
Speaker 1: a different approach than what the numbers might tell you
Speaker 1: to do. And that's why again, like when you come
Speaker 1: into these situations, it's about a balance. It's about a
Speaker 1: balance between taking as much information as you can, gaining
Speaker 1: every advantage as you can, but making sure that you
Speaker 1: have your best players feeling comfortable and in rhythm as
Speaker 1: possible by not micromanaging every damn shot they take. And
Speaker 1: I think that's where that balance comes in. I thought
Speaker 1: that was just such an interesting example, Like, again, that's
Speaker 1: the difference between mid range shooting and longer range shooting.
Speaker 1: You can straight up enter a zone where you're just
Speaker 1: making it every damn time. And that's what Mikail Bridges
Speaker 1: did to steal that game from the San Antonio Spurs.
Speaker 1: I thought Josh Hart was incredible. Down the stretch of
Speaker 1: this game. You get a huge above the breakthree the
Speaker 1: Spurs regarding a lot of the ball screen actions three
Speaker 1: on two, meaning like they're chasing over the top. They
Speaker 1: have the big up at the level, but they also
Speaker 1: have a third defender that's kind of coming over to
Speaker 1: guard the action. That's gonna cause a lot of off
Speaker 1: ball three on twos which are gonna leave open shooters,
Speaker 1: and Josh had a big one above the break that
Speaker 1: he ended up hitting. He had a huge offensive rebound
Speaker 1: on a missed layup that are missed a little one
Speaker 1: of the few mid range jump I think it was
Speaker 1: the mid range jump shot that mckailbridge missed late where
Speaker 1: it kind of rattled in and out and he had
Speaker 1: Chris Paul on him. Josh Hart did and Chris Paul
Speaker 1: was kind of drifting and being a little lazy, and
Speaker 1: Josh Hart just shot down the lane and got a
Speaker 1: huge offensive rebound. And then he had a huge block
Speaker 1: on a lowman rotation on Jeremy Sohans. So it's a
Speaker 1: little ballscreen lobb to the rim. Sohan's going up to dunk,
Speaker 1: he's behind the screen defender, meaning like if the lowman
Speaker 1: help isn't there, it's a dunk or it's a layup.
Speaker 1: Josh Hart comes flying out of the left corner, makes
Speaker 1: that huge block at the rim, and they need another
Speaker 1: transition push where he drew a foul. It's several huge
Speaker 1: plays to help them win that game. And then the
Speaker 1: Knicks got the stops that they needed down the stretch again.
Speaker 1: Defense has been the main driving force but behind the
Speaker 1: Knicks success as of late a couple of interesting adjustments.
Speaker 1: They went away from Karl Anthony Towns late. You know,
Speaker 1: I get it because they were getting burned on some
Speaker 1: pick and pop stuff, which is typical. That's a coverage
Speaker 1: that you're gonna have to run with Carl Anthony town there,
Speaker 1: and when you switch, you don't love that matchup, leaving
Speaker 1: Carl Anthony Towns on a guard on the perimeter right, So, like,
Speaker 1: I understand some of it, but also I kind of
Speaker 1: felt bad for Kat because like Victor was hitting some
Speaker 1: impossible shots, Like Victor hit multiple like thirty footers or
Speaker 1: like twenty six twenty seven footers, moving like running into
Speaker 1: the shot to his right, planning that left foot and
Speaker 1: that right foot, squaring up in mid air and knocking
Speaker 1: like at seven foot four, whatever the hell he is
Speaker 1: knocking down a movement twenty seven foot or like at
Speaker 1: a certain point, I want to be like, this isn't
Speaker 1: really your fault. And I mean, you know, there was
Speaker 1: some good defense down the stretch on Victor, but I
Speaker 1: mean he missed a couple good looks too. You know,
Speaker 1: that's part of the game. But anyway, they go away
Speaker 1: from Karl Anthony Towns, Tips puts Precious to chew on
Speaker 1: Jeremy Sohan so he can help in the paint. They
Speaker 1: basically ignore Jeremy so On. Jeremy s Soon burned them
Speaker 1: once with above the break three on the left wing
Speaker 1: down the stretch, but for the most part that was working.
Speaker 1: Then they put og In and Obi on Victor Wambin
Speaker 1: Yama so that they could get up underneath Wenby to
Speaker 1: kind of take away an he sort of dribble penetration.
Speaker 1: And I also gives them the flexibility to switch any
Speaker 1: ball screens that involved Victor women Yama because again Victor
Speaker 1: had been beating them in picking pop. So they got
Speaker 1: all the stops that they needed to get and they
Speaker 1: get out of there with the win. Mcale Bridges finished
Speaker 1: with forty one points, zero turnovers. I thought he did
Speaker 1: an awesome job defensively on Devin vessel To. He's just
Speaker 1: playing so so much better than he did to start
Speaker 1: the year. And it's doing a lot to turn around
Speaker 1: the Knicks. But again, like with the Knicks, it's coming
Speaker 1: down to their defense. Like that's how they regained control
Speaker 1: of the situation yesterday. That's how they were winning games
Speaker 1: in that eight and two stretch before this game, Like
Speaker 1: it's all about them being a defense, like a gritty defense,
Speaker 1: physical team that has more offensive talent than last year's
Speaker 1: team did to give them that that boost, right, and
Speaker 1: like that's the difference, right, Like when they went on
Speaker 1: their run after the Spurs went up big in that
Speaker 1: middle of the fourth quarter, when they went on their run,
Speaker 1: it's like defense running out in transition. Ognnobi hits a three,
Speaker 1: McHale Bridges hits a three, Josh Hart hits a three. Right,
Speaker 1: Like when it wasn't ojannob and McHale Bridges, it would
Speaker 1: have been harder. There wasn't as much talent on the
Speaker 1: floor to convert those situations. But they have the talent
Speaker 1: now and they're converting those situations. I thought. Duce McBride
Speaker 1: made it like a ridiculous important off the dribble three
Speaker 1: above the left break as well, big team win for
Speaker 1: the Knicks to survive. The Victor Women Yama on slot
Speaker 1: for Victor Women. Yama just some truly absurd shot making.
Speaker 1: He had two thirty footers moving to his right, like
Speaker 1: we talked about earlier. Couldn't even get mad at Kat
Speaker 1: the main thing that stood out to me, And again,
Speaker 1: like I promise I'm not talking shit here, because like,
Speaker 1: Victor's amazing, he was plus seven yesterday. They've they've been
Speaker 1: dominating in his minutes. He's averaging thirty points, ten rebounds
Speaker 1: in five assists on fifty one percent from the field,
Speaker 1: thirty nine percent from three, and eighty seven percent from
Speaker 1: the line, with four blocks per game in his last
Speaker 1: fifteen games, and the Spurs are nine and six in
Speaker 1: those games. And again, like the on off splits are crazy.
Speaker 1: But there's one thing that I want to kind of
Speaker 1: nitpick with him because I think it's something that will
Speaker 1: help him down the stretch. And this goes or down
Speaker 1: the rest of his prime. And this goes back to
Speaker 1: what we were talking about earlier with the mc bridges
Speaker 1: on any jump shot for Victor Wemanyama that is not
Speaker 1: a three. He's seventeen for fifty three this season. That's
Speaker 1: thirty two percent, and again that's without getting that extra
Speaker 1: point two. So we're talking about zero point six to
Speaker 1: four points per tempt, which is really really bad. Again,
Speaker 1: like he can get hot from three, and he's won
Speaker 1: games hitting threes this year. We talked about I think
Speaker 1: he's hit four clutch threes this year in the final
Speaker 1: five minutes of games, But it would be nice to
Speaker 1: have something that he could go to that is closer, like,
Speaker 1: for instance, when he had that face up against precious
Speaker 1: to chew and he ripped through to the right and
Speaker 1: he took that little elbow jumper that rattled in and out,
Speaker 1: Like I would love to see Victor get to the
Speaker 1: point where he has some of those types of over
Speaker 1: the top shots that he can hit closer to fifty
Speaker 1: to fifty five percent or even forty five fifty percent,
Speaker 1: because they're less volatile than the shots that he takes
Speaker 1: from three in the small sample when he's in these
Speaker 1: clutch time situations. He's also still only made one hook
Speaker 1: shot all season, right, that's one two where he could
Speaker 1: just take a bump and over his left shoulder and
Speaker 1: just kind of shoot like a little five to ten
Speaker 1: foot push shot and that short range where he could
Speaker 1: get a little bit more reliable scoring. But again, it
Speaker 1: was like he was super hot from three. They started
Speaker 1: taking away the easy ones and he took a couple
Speaker 1: of tougher ones and they didn't go in, and then
Speaker 1: he did it just there wasn't much for him to
Speaker 1: go to at that point, so like, I'd like to
Speaker 1: see him And this is not just on him, it's
Speaker 1: on the Spurs as well. They need to try to
Speaker 1: generate as many opportunities for him to catch with an
Speaker 1: advantage closer to the rim, to look to score instead
Speaker 1: of always so far from the rim. On the Spurs front,
Speaker 1: a lot of really positive stuff, like Chris Paul is
Speaker 1: doing some really nice work keeping them organized on offense.
Speaker 1: They're seventeen points per one hundred possessions better with him
Speaker 1: on the floor versus off this year on both ends
Speaker 1: of the floor. Part of that is he's partnered with
Speaker 1: Victor wembin Yama a lot, but also it's that keeping
Speaker 1: them organized on offense. Again, like a lot of freelance
Speaker 1: offense ends poorly in the NBA, having a point guard
Speaker 1: that gets you into your sets and gets everybody into
Speaker 1: their spots will go a long way towards increasing your
Speaker 1: offensive efficiency, you know, Jeremy Sohan, it's interesting. I don't
Speaker 1: love the idea of having him guard like Quicker permits
Speaker 1: players like McKayle Bridges. I didn't think he did a
Speaker 1: good job against Micail Bridges late, too much contact on
Speaker 1: the screen and not staying attached enough from behind. But
Speaker 1: some of that is just part of the problem when
Speaker 1: you're playing the Knicks, because someone has to guard Jalen
Speaker 1: Brunson too right, and you're going to be put in
Speaker 1: situations where it's possible that Jeremy staw On could have
Speaker 1: to guard another quick perimeter player. But overall, I thought
Speaker 1: it did a ton of good. It hit a huge
Speaker 1: three when the Knicks were ignoring him late. He had
Speaker 1: twenty one points on ten shots sixty percent. You're shooting
Speaker 1: on fifteen points per game over the season. He puts
Speaker 1: the ball in the basket more effectively than I think
Speaker 1: a lot of people realize they've been tinkering with that
Speaker 1: fifth guy in those lineups. Obviously you've got Devin Vessel
Speaker 1: was Chris Paul with Jeremy Sawhn and Victor wimen Yama
Speaker 1: kind of feels like that core four, and sometimes it's
Speaker 1: Steph Castle is the fifth guy. Sometimes it's Keldon Johnson
Speaker 1: when they want to be more athletic, and then like yesterday,
Speaker 1: a lot of Julian Champagne because they're trying to get
Speaker 1: more shooting in there, and that's the kind of thing
Speaker 1: that will bear out in time as they as they
Speaker 1: kind of get some more clarity among their young talent,
Speaker 1: and whether or not they end up making some more
Speaker 1: a type of all in type of move at some
Speaker 1: point in the future. But the two big things that
Speaker 1: stood out to me for the Spurs in this game
Speaker 1: is their defensive details, like a lot of overhelping, like
Speaker 1: a lot of times where they're defending ball screens three
Speaker 1: on two and leaving shooters open when they probably don't
Speaker 1: need to. And then missing box outs like they got
Speaker 1: beat on the glass a bunch late, and a lot
Speaker 1: of it was just not attentive and not competing for
Speaker 1: loose balls, so like little things they need to clear up.
Speaker 1: And then again, like I mentioned earlier, trying to find
Speaker 1: more opportunities for Victor wamin yam gonna catch with an
Speaker 1: opportunity to score closer to the rim. And again that's
Speaker 1: a skill development piece for Victor two because he's got
Speaker 1: to be able to convert those opportunities. But try to
Speaker 1: keep him from floating around the three point line late
Speaker 1: in games. That's not to say you shouldn't do it,
Speaker 1: and I think it's important, Like you know, like if
Speaker 1: you get a really good guard that you trust late,
Speaker 1: whether it's seven Vessel, Chris Paull Ord Steph Castle in
Speaker 1: a few years. You want to have a release valve
Speaker 1: for the guard to be able to work, but then
Speaker 1: also feel like Victor is a threat out of the
Speaker 1: perimeter to maintain spacing. But you also want to, like
Speaker 1: in his ISO situations and his post up situations, try
Speaker 1: to run stuff, get him sort of the basket so
Speaker 1: that he's less tempted to settle for really tough contested
Speaker 1: like eighteen footers and maybe more like ten to twelve
Speaker 1: footers that have a little bit less variance involved with
Speaker 1: them moving on to six or Celtics game plan not
Speaker 1: a gameplan mistake, but a game plan backfires for Boston.
Speaker 1: Game plans are designed to take away things that teams
Speaker 1: like to do and force teams to do things that
Speaker 1: make them feel uncomfortable. One of the things that the
Speaker 1: Celtics have done forever is put their Celtics on the
Speaker 1: weakest above the break shooter on the opposing team. Why
Speaker 1: because Jason Tatum is big and strong enough to battle centers,
Speaker 1: and so is Jalen Brown, but both of them are
Speaker 1: also quick enough to guard on the perimeter, so you
Speaker 1: could put Jalen Brown on the best pick and roll
Speaker 1: ball handler for the other team, Jason Tatum on their center.
Speaker 1: All of a sudden, they're one five ball screen game
Speaker 1: or whatever their best perimeter player. Ball screen game is
Speaker 1: just shut down because it's just a switch and there's
Speaker 1: not a great mismatch on either side of it. Right
Speaker 1: and then above, above, and beyond that, you've got your center,
Speaker 1: the rim protector, lingering around the basket while you're leaving
Speaker 1: this mediocre to bad jump shooter standing around on the perimeter.
Speaker 1: That guy yesterday was Caleb Martin. Caleb Martin is shooting
Speaker 1: before last night's game or yesterday's game, I should say,
Speaker 1: eighteen for fifty nine from three before that game, thirty
Speaker 1: point five percent. And again, this is a strategy that
Speaker 1: works the majority of the time for the Celtics. Caleb
Speaker 1: Martin goes seven to nine from three yesterday, the Celtics
Speaker 1: had a lead, a small lead early in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 1: Caleb Martin hits four threes, all on the right wing,
Speaker 1: all during that massive run that Philly goes on where
Speaker 1: they take control of the game. Tyres Maxi was incredible
Speaker 1: in that game. As well. I thought he played the
Speaker 1: best out of anybody. Thought he was the best player
Speaker 1: on the four yesterday's game. Hit several big shots in
Speaker 1: that run on defense. The Celtics were trying to go
Speaker 1: at him. He had a big stop against Derek White
Speaker 1: on a drive he had like a steal where he
Speaker 1: defended his slip where like a lot of times, when
Speaker 1: you're hedging and recovering, if you recover with high hands,
Speaker 1: you can get deflections as that pass is trying to
Speaker 1: get back to the guy you were originally guarding. He
Speaker 1: got a big steel doing it that way. He was awesome.
Speaker 1: The Sixers go up by fifteen, so the game plan
Speaker 1: basically backfires. Your tire game plans built on we're gonna
Speaker 1: let Caleb Martin take these above the break threes because
Speaker 1: he's hitting them at less than thirty three percent, so
Speaker 1: they're worth less than one point per possession. We're gonna
Speaker 1: shut down this primary action and the Sixers will fall apart.
Speaker 1: He hits four threes in that stretch. Suddenly it's a
Speaker 1: very very different type of game, right. But then the
Speaker 1: Celtics go on a huge run classic Celtics basketball. They
Speaker 1: turn up their ball pressure, they start forcing turnovers, they
Speaker 1: start getting stops. Playing simple offense on the other end
Speaker 1: with great spacing to generate wide open threes. They get
Speaker 1: a steal. Jalen Brown gets a steal with more ball
Speaker 1: pressure on Tyree s Masey that leads to a runout
Speaker 1: dunk for al Horford. Suddenly it's a three point game.
Speaker 1: But then Joel Embiid, who had been on the bench
Speaker 1: during this run, came in and made two huge to
Speaker 1: kind of reassert control. Catches on the roll and makes
Speaker 1: a good, hard, strong move off of a power dribble
Speaker 1: into the lane and draws a foul, makes both free
Speaker 1: throws that puts the lead back up to five, and
Speaker 1: then in a late clock situation, he blocks Jason Tatum
Speaker 1: at the rim, which forces al Horford into kind of
Speaker 1: a late clock heave that doesn't go in so two
Speaker 1: way sequence from Embiid where it gets two points and
Speaker 1: defends the rim on the other end. All of a sudden,
Speaker 1: the Sixers have the ball up by five and they're
Speaker 1: able to kind of reassert control the game big time
Speaker 1: playing and that's what you're supposed to do again, Like
Speaker 1: that's the thing with Embiid, The uh there's gonna be
Speaker 1: he was. I thought he was really good yesterday, but
Speaker 1: like there's going to be times where in this process
Speaker 1: where as he's trying to get his legs underneath him
Speaker 1: and get back in rhythm. He's not the all world
Speaker 1: MVP type of Joel Embiid, right Like that, that's a
Speaker 1: player that I expect in a few weeks after he
Speaker 1: gets several games under his belt without having any issues, right.
Speaker 1: But a lot of times it's like you just got
Speaker 1: to make some plays. And again, like your team puts
Speaker 1: you in position to win with a great run to
Speaker 1: start the fourth quarter, but they're starting to lose control
Speaker 1: because guess what, they're not as talented as the team
Speaker 1: they're playing, and they need you, your superstar, to come
Speaker 1: in and make a couple of plays to help them
Speaker 1: reassert control. And that's exactly what they did. It's been
Speaker 1: tough to get a read on the Sixers with all
Speaker 1: the injuries they've dealt with this year. Like we have
Speaker 1: just two hundred and twenty five possessions of those three
Speaker 1: guys all on the floor together this season, Tyres Maxey,
Speaker 1: Paul George and Joel Embiid. They're plus one point three net,
Speaker 1: meaning plus one point three points per one hundred possessions
Speaker 1: so far in those two hundred and twenty five possessions,
Speaker 1: one hundred and one defensive rating, which is awesome, but
Speaker 1: a one oh two offensive rating, which is pretty bad.
Speaker 1: That's to be expected, though, There's two reasons why. One
Speaker 1: like Paul George and Joel Embiid need to be on
Speaker 1: the floor so that they can get into a rhythm,
Speaker 1: so that they can get to the best versions of themselves.
Speaker 1: Like right now, the Big three is out there, but
Speaker 1: it's not the idealized version of the Big three. The
Speaker 1: idealized version of the Big three is the Big three
Speaker 1: that's played twenty games and all three guys are healthy,
Speaker 1: in rhythm, in shape. That's the version of the Big
Speaker 1: three that could potentially be you know, plus twelve plus
Speaker 1: thirteen points net rating over a pretty large sample. That's
Speaker 1: what I want to see in the long run. But like,
Speaker 1: the second piece of it too, is like the actual
Speaker 1: learning how to play with each other, Like again, this
Speaker 1: is a new partnership, and again like how is Paul
Speaker 1: George going to fit in alongside these guys? And so
Speaker 1: like again, he was off the ball for a lot
Speaker 1: of MB Tyree action late in the game, right, So
Speaker 1: like that's where you got to find ways to kind
Speaker 1: of keep him involved. Like all of that will grow
Speaker 1: in time as they get more repetitions. But again, they're
Speaker 1: in a good spot all things considered. You could not
Speaker 1: have scripted a more disastrous start to the season for
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia seventy six ers, and they're now three and
Speaker 1: a half games back from being above the plan. So
Speaker 1: that's the sixth seed. With Miami, Atlanta, Indiana, Chicago and
Speaker 1: Detroit standing in their way, you feel good about your
Speaker 1: chance to outpace those teams in the big picture. They're
Speaker 1: capable of it. And now you're coming off of a
Speaker 1: huge win on the road in Boston. It's a good
Speaker 1: spot to be for the seventy six Ers. On the
Speaker 1: Boston front, they've lost four out of seven. Now, like
Speaker 1: I always say, everyone in this league, even the best teams,
Speaker 1: will have ugly stretches in their season. It is the
Speaker 1: part of it is a part of the deal when
Speaker 1: you're playing eighty two games. The Celtics actually had a
Speaker 1: stretch right around the same time last year where they
Speaker 1: lost three out of six. It was in early January,
Speaker 1: so when they lost to Oklahoma City lost to Indiana
Speaker 1: and then they got blown out by the Bucks in
Speaker 1: a six game span. Then they went on to win
Speaker 1: the championship. Right, so this is this is part of
Speaker 1: the deal when you're playing eighty two. What's happening this time? Though?
Speaker 1: One too many stretches of lazy defense. They had a
Speaker 1: one to sixteen defensive rating in these four losses, which
Speaker 1: isn't bad, but it's bad by Celtic standards. A lot
Speaker 1: of sequences like you saw in that fourth quarter, where
Speaker 1: like the team isn't really pressure in the ball and
Speaker 1: is it really competing defensively on the perimeter, and they
Speaker 1: get sliced and diced. Then they find themselves down big.
Speaker 1: Then they like ratchet up the defense, like they ratchet
Speaker 1: up that physicality, that ball pressure, and they start really
Speaker 1: competing and they immediately start getting stops again and they
Speaker 1: go on their run and so again it's like that's
Speaker 1: where you just need to try to like make it
Speaker 1: so that the second part of that happens more than
Speaker 1: the first part of that, right, Like it's like kind
Speaker 1: of a tale of two different teams within the scope
Speaker 1: of even individual games. And so that's a big part
Speaker 1: of it. Just competing on defense. Like last night, they
Speaker 1: they turned up the ball pressure after the Sixers went
Speaker 1: up fifteen and immediately regained control of the game. And
Speaker 1: in both both the Chicago game and this game. The
Speaker 1: Chicago game they lost and this game, they just didn't
Speaker 1: bring the necessary defensive pressure, especially in that early fourth
Speaker 1: quarter stretch where they lost control of the game. Two
Speaker 1: poor shooting and this four losses. They're shooting thirty percent
Speaker 1: from three. That's obviously going to be something that lessens
Speaker 1: your chances. And then lastly, Jalen Brown is playing poorly
Speaker 1: by his standards at this point. He had five turnovers
Speaker 1: in the Memphis game that they lost, he was one
Speaker 1: for eight from three, and the Bowls game that they
Speaker 1: lost ten for twenty three with five more turnovers. In
Speaker 1: the Philly loss, and again in those defensive stretches where
Speaker 1: they lost control in the early fourth quarter against Chicago
Speaker 1: and Philly. Kind of very similar types of games where
Speaker 1: they're in it and then suddenly they just quickly lose
Speaker 1: control over a bad stretch of defense. I thought Jalen
Speaker 1: Brown was part of the problem defensively in those roles.
Speaker 1: Specifically in the Chicago game, it was like one of
Speaker 1: the more embarrassing defensive efforts I've seen from Jalen Brown
Speaker 1: in his career. So, like Jalen Brown's not playing very well,
Speaker 1: the team's not shooting very well. They're kind of inconsistent defensively.
Speaker 1: They drop four out of seven, So what does this mean? Nothing?
Speaker 1: The great teams have bad stretches too, they just usually
Speaker 1: wake up from them and get back on track much
Speaker 1: quicker than everyone else does. Go beat Indiana twice, got
Speaker 1: two home games against Indiana. They have a four game
Speaker 1: road trip in early January when they go two Minnesota
Speaker 1: to Houston, to Oklahoma City and to Denver. That's a
Speaker 1: great chance go three and one on that road trip.
Speaker 1: You've reasserted yourself as the best team in the league,
Speaker 1: and you kind of regain your mojo. That's what I
Speaker 1: expect them to do over the course the next couple
Speaker 1: of weeks. Again on MAVs Wolves and on Nuggets Suns.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna give two quick takeaways from each game
Speaker 1: for timesake. MAVs Wolves first takeaway, and had these two
Speaker 1: big buckets late like kind of like a driving, little
Speaker 1: contested bank shot around the right lane line and then
Speaker 1: a hard driving left handed layup on PJ. Washington late,
Speaker 1: and all I could say is those were situations where
Speaker 1: Ant demonstrated his absurd physical gifts with his ability to
Speaker 1: get to his spots right. Like Ant just toasts PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington off the dribble for that left handed layup. And
Speaker 1: if you watch a replay that little bank shot that
Speaker 1: he hit, he's so under control it almost looks like
Speaker 1: he's in slow motion. It looks so comfortable and it
Speaker 1: looks easy right, And all I could think is, God,
Speaker 1: I'd love to see this team play with some real spacing.
Speaker 1: I pulled this number yesterday the Wolves front court, so
Speaker 1: they're three four five is making two point nine threes
Speaker 1: per game combined on what's the percentage that I have
Speaker 1: here hang on one second, thirty three point nine percent.
Speaker 1: Thirty three point nine percent with less than three makes
Speaker 1: per game for your entire three four five. So the
Speaker 1: three biggest players, the three guys that the other team
Speaker 1: has their biggest best athletes on, don't have to worry
Speaker 1: about him be on the three point line. There's all
Speaker 1: of this talk, and like, look, I'm not gonna sit
Speaker 1: here and pretend like Ant is the best playmaker in
Speaker 1: the world. He's not, or that he's the best game
Speaker 1: manager in the world. He's not or that Ant doesn't
Speaker 1: need to get better at reading defenses and making teams
Speaker 1: pay with this passing. Of course he has to get
Speaker 1: better at that. He's twenty two years old. But the
Speaker 1: spacing is goddamn awful. It's awful. It's very hard to
Speaker 1: play basketball in that type of situation. He's having to
Speaker 1: slalom in many cases through three four five bodies just
Speaker 1: to get to the rim. And this isn't like the
Speaker 1: old days with the legal defense, right, Like it's more
Speaker 1: congested in the lane when you beat that guy off
Speaker 1: the dribble, and so it's just it's one of those
Speaker 1: things where like what's gonna end up happening in my opinion,
Speaker 1: And by the way, I think I think people are
Speaker 1: too quick to write Ant off in general just because
Speaker 1: of this busted ass Timberwolves roster, and I think he's
Speaker 1: gonna have great moments sooner than later. But there's a
Speaker 1: version of this for Ants twenty six, and he's playing
Speaker 1: on a team with that provides like legitimate spacing for him,
Speaker 1: and he's made the development steps that he needs to
Speaker 1: as a playmaker, where I think this dude's gonna be
Speaker 1: absolutely incredible. It just it blows my mind how easily
Speaker 1: he gets to his spots. And I thought that those
Speaker 1: two big buckets that he got late were great examples
Speaker 1: of that. On the MAVs front, They're gonna be fine. Luka,
Speaker 1: Doncics leaves on crutches. He's got a significant CAF strain.
Speaker 1: Let's say he's gone for a month. One of the
Speaker 1: big things that I've learned in the early part of
Speaker 1: this season is that this MAVs roster is incredibly deep
Speaker 1: with just good basketball players, and they have so many.
Speaker 1: This is where making that change this summer and bringing
Speaker 1: in all that additional ball handling will reap benefits because
Speaker 1: you've got great defensive personnel and you guys have seen
Speaker 1: so many examples of this like Lively Gafford Center partnership
Speaker 1: with PJ. Washington and how they can really defend. You
Speaker 1: saw stretches last night where you include Maxi Kliba and
Speaker 1: that they defend even better. They've got all this defensive
Speaker 1: personnel to bring the defensive floor up, and then now
Speaker 1: you've got all these additional ball handler Spencer Dinwoodie, Naji Marshall,
Speaker 1: Klay Thompson, guys that can create offense. Quinn Grimes too,
Speaker 1: that can create offense with movement shooting and off the
Speaker 1: dribble shot creation, and so that is allowed the floor.
Speaker 1: The defensive floor for the MAVs was already sky high,
Speaker 1: but now you've raised the offensive floor. Whereas in the
Speaker 1: old days when you get all this like one way
Speaker 1: personnel and Lucas out, it's a much bigger issue creating shots.
Speaker 1: It's a lot more pressure on Kyrie. Now it kind
Speaker 1: of feels like more of a natural, kind of like
Speaker 1: basketball team in the sense that you still are relying
Speaker 1: a lot on Kyrie, but you have other guys that
Speaker 1: can kind of create offense and so obviously discouraging loss.
Speaker 1: You never want to lose on Christmas Day. You never
Speaker 1: want to see your star go down with an injury.
Speaker 1: But I remain confident that the MAVs are fine. I
Speaker 1: would have Luca take his sweet time to get one
Speaker 1: hundred percent healthy before he comes back. I think the
Speaker 1: MAVs are going to stay afloat in the standings on
Speaker 1: the strength of their talent, and they're really high floor
Speaker 1: on both ends of the floor. Nuggets suns again, two
Speaker 1: quick takeaways. First one, the Suns just need to compete physically.
Speaker 1: They had lost six out of eight before last night's
Speaker 1: win against Denver. They had a defensive rating of one
Speaker 1: twenty two in those eight games, and they were bad
Speaker 1: on the glass and bad in transition in that stretch.
Speaker 1: Last night, they held the Nuggets to three straight twenty
Speaker 1: two point quarters. They held up tougher on the glass
Speaker 1: than they had been as of late, they didn't turn
Speaker 1: the ball over, and they kept Denver out of transition.
Speaker 1: That m that matters even more than getting the guys healthy.
Speaker 1: Like you want to have Devin Booker back, you want
Speaker 1: to have everyone healthy. You want to have the big
Speaker 1: three work and doing their thing. But the more important
Speaker 1: thing is they just need to compete as a team. Again,
Speaker 1: when I see defensive ratings that high, when I see
Speaker 1: teams like when I see middle of the pack teams
Speaker 1: that have personnel weaknesses, it means to me they're competing.
Speaker 1: When I see personnel weaknesses, but they're at the bottom
Speaker 1: of the pack, that tells me you're not competing. And
Speaker 1: like you see it last night, they do, and suddenly
Speaker 1: everything looks that much better. They have to compete. They
Speaker 1: are not bigot or athletic enough at any position group
Speaker 1: to let go of the rope competitively. This is a
Speaker 1: team that has to fight. Then their offensive talent can
Speaker 1: be enough to lift them over the top. But it's
Speaker 1: a non negotiable. A one to twenty two offense or
Speaker 1: defensive rating over eight games, that's not a team that's serious,
Speaker 1: A serious like that. That doesn't mean they need to
Speaker 1: be an elite defense, but they have to be better
Speaker 1: than what they showed in that original stretch. And I
Speaker 1: thought last night was a great example of that. When
Speaker 1: the Suns compete physically, they give themselves a really good
Speaker 1: chance to win. Bradley Beal, by the way, another great
Speaker 1: example of what I was talking about earlier with Michael Bridges.
Speaker 1: I thought he was great all night. Bradgate a great
Speaker 1: rim pressure, but like you, got a little rhythm with
Speaker 1: his mid range shot making, and that carried the Suns
Speaker 1: through various stretches of that game. It is an interesting example,
Speaker 1: like we talked about earlier at the when we were
Speaker 1: talking Nick Spurs on the Nuggets front. The Nuggets go
Speaker 1: as Jamal Murray goes, obviously goes for thirteen points yesterday
Speaker 1: against the Suns and they can't score. They are four
Speaker 1: and oh this season. In the four games Jamal Murray
Speaker 1: scored at least twenty five points, they are seven and three.
Speaker 1: When he scores at least twenty. They are four and
Speaker 1: eight when he fails to score twenty. And that really
Speaker 1: is the thing. Jokich is the consistent force for this team.
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray is the volatile force. Jamal has to bring stability.
Speaker 1: When he does, that's when Denver will take off. And
Speaker 1: until he does, they're going to struggle. Is a game
Speaker 1: they couldn't score and they didn't really have an option
Speaker 1: that they could go to outside of Nikola Jokich. So
Speaker 1: just something to keep in mind as we look forward
Speaker 1: to the season again. Seven and eight when he scores
Speaker 1: at least seven, and three, when he scores at least
Speaker 1: twenty four and eight when he fails to score twenty.
Speaker 1: That's the big, you know, kind of oscillating factor for
Speaker 1: this Denver Nuggets team. All right, guys, that's all I
Speaker 1: have for today. As always, sincerely appreciate you guys for
Speaker 1: rocking with me and supporting the show. We'll be back
Speaker 1: tomorrow with a mail bag. I'll see you guys. Then
Speaker 1: the volume