1
00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel podcast. I'm Paul swing you,

2
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680
Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day

3
00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240
Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

4
00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520
Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or

5
00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480
Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple

6
00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959
Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

7
00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,640
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Has some economic data today, existing

8
00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:25,319
Speaker 1: home sales, initial jobs claims each came into I would

9
00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:27,840
Speaker 1: say slightly weaker than I expecting. Nothing major, but again

10
00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:29,560
Speaker 1: on the margin, a little bit weaker. To kind of

11
00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:31,800
Speaker 1: break down what we're seeing on the economic front, we

12
00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,320
Speaker 1: welcome a good friend, Danielle di Martino Booth. She's a

13
00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:37,880
Speaker 1: chief executive officer and chief strategist at Quill Intelligence. She

14
00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:40,960
Speaker 1: joins us here in our Bloomberg Inactor Brooker Studios. So, Danielle,

15
00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:45,360
Speaker 1: on the margin, what's some of the recent data telling you, well,

16
00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:47,560
Speaker 1: there's there's good and there's bad. Uh. You know, the

17
00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 1: power printing press is powerful, and I think that it

18
00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,120
Speaker 1: is It is the FEDS, not Queie, that is a

19
00:00:55,400 --> 00:01:00,080
Speaker 1: much greater force in propelling the nascent recovery that were

20
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,800
Speaker 1: seeing on the industrial side Empire State Philly fed this morning,

21
00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:07,080
Speaker 1: we're seeing future inventories rise appreciably. That tends to be

22
00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:10,360
Speaker 1: a precursor to I s M new orders increasing. That's

23
00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:12,959
Speaker 1: going to be very well received by markets because they're

24
00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:16,560
Speaker 1: gonna say, okay, we've escaped the third industrial recession of

25
00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,320
Speaker 1: the current longest expansion in US history. You know, the

26
00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,200
Speaker 1: flip side or some of the things that we're seeing

27
00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:25,200
Speaker 1: coming out of initial jobless claims. Continuing jobless claims were

28
00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,800
Speaker 1: falling very closely, because if continuing jobless claims stop falling,

29
00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,840
Speaker 1: the improvement in the labor market has been exhausted. So

30
00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:37,080
Speaker 1: we've seen seven straight weeks of of that stagnation. Continuing

31
00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,720
Speaker 1: jobless claims are up zero point seven percent, so pretty

32
00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,520
Speaker 1: hard to see on a graph, but nevertheless they're They're

33
00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:45,840
Speaker 1: up for the first time since December of two thousand

34
00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,160
Speaker 1: and nine. And for example, in this morning's existing home

35
00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,680
Speaker 1: sales report, we saw homes priced under two dollar. We

36
00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,360
Speaker 1: saw those sales fall. That's not what J. Powell wants. J.

37
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,160
Speaker 1: Pale wants for his transmission mechanism of lower interest rates

38
00:01:58,200 --> 00:01:59,920
Speaker 1: to work for the people who need to buy home

39
00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,840
Speaker 1: So this doesn't all sound absolutely dreadful when it comes

40
00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,600
Speaker 1: to the consumer, because we still are near historic lows

41
00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:11,520
Speaker 1: and very full employment. What is the practical takeaway from

42
00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,679
Speaker 1: the bottoming out or sort of the hitting of a

43
00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,760
Speaker 1: sort of peak perhaps in the consumer? Yeah, I think

44
00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,120
Speaker 1: I think what the message is. And again initial jobless

45
00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,680
Speaker 1: claims have surprised the upside now two weeks runing two

46
00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,720
Speaker 1: seven and twenty seven UM. These are the highest levels

47
00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,040
Speaker 1: we've seen since early uh this year. But I think

48
00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,680
Speaker 1: that the takeaway is that we have had the most

49
00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:36,160
Speaker 1: extraordinary expansion in US labor market history. I mean, it

50
00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,840
Speaker 1: blows away prior cycles by a mile, and a lot

51
00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:41,800
Speaker 1: of that has had to do with the skills mismatch

52
00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:46,320
Speaker 1: and how very valuable any employee has been two companies,

53
00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:50,080
Speaker 1: and how how hard they've held onto them through these

54
00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,520
Speaker 1: ups and downs in the economy. So for us to

55
00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:58,960
Speaker 1: see companies finally relenting and pushing through the beginnings of

56
00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,920
Speaker 1: layoffs I think is concerning because companies have been so

57
00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,080
Speaker 1: remissed to let go of their employees. So just looking

58
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:09,280
Speaker 1: at the FED funds futures rate UM after the FED

59
00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,360
Speaker 1: minutes were released yesterday, looks like the markets discounting a

60
00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:17,920
Speaker 1: rate cut maybe sometime mid to third quarter next year, September, right,

61
00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,160
Speaker 1: Do you think the FED can wait that long based

62
00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:22,760
Speaker 1: upon maybe some of the rolling over a little bit?

63
00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,520
Speaker 1: You know, I think that, uh, we have to bear

64
00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,920
Speaker 1: in mind. John Williams is the Vice chair of the

65
00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:30,960
Speaker 1: Federal Open Market Committee, so he's technically second in command,

66
00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,079
Speaker 1: not Rich Claradat, who's vice chair of the board UM

67
00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,160
Speaker 1: and his comments I've felt a few days ago were

68
00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:40,320
Speaker 1: very devish in nature, and I think that the market

69
00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:44,280
Speaker 1: may be over discounting how data dependent that the FED

70
00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:46,920
Speaker 1: is going to be and whether or not they will

71
00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,640
Speaker 1: be forced. And we have no idea what December is

72
00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:51,400
Speaker 1: going to bring in terms of the repo market and

73
00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,760
Speaker 1: liquidity issues and year end window dressing at banks. We

74
00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:58,520
Speaker 1: don't know how much disruption there might be going into

75
00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,120
Speaker 1: the new new year, and how whether or not that

76
00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:05,080
Speaker 1: September realistic. So you know, when you came in here,

77
00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,360
Speaker 1: we were talking about this bottoming out, some of the

78
00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,360
Speaker 1: data having to do with the consumer, some signs of

79
00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,320
Speaker 1: brightness in the industrial sector, and you said that you

80
00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,200
Speaker 1: see a shift coming or the consumer, which has powered

81
00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:20,000
Speaker 1: the economic expansion, is going to start deteriorating in terms

82
00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,479
Speaker 1: of its economic condition, and we're going to see a

83
00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,160
Speaker 1: resurgence in industrials. Can you explain a little bit further

84
00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:29,599
Speaker 1: And I'm you know, I'm not I'm not certain how

85
00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:32,919
Speaker 1: strong it's going to be. If you look, for example,

86
00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:37,480
Speaker 1: at Manufacturing Powerhouse Germany, it did not slip into recession.

87
00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,680
Speaker 1: And I think Germany Germany is a great barometer for

88
00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,239
Speaker 1: our industrial sector because we've been lagging. We've been following

89
00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,120
Speaker 1: what happens in Germany, and what we're anticipating right now

90
00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:51,359
Speaker 1: is stagnation overseas, not a major rebound, so you know,

91
00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:54,320
Speaker 1: we might rebuild stockpiles in the coming months. That's going

92
00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,960
Speaker 1: to be again seeing very very favorably. The market's favorite

93
00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:01,120
Speaker 1: leading indicator is I s M new orders and one

94
00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,640
Speaker 1: of the reasons market's got a little shaky was because

95
00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,120
Speaker 1: we had three months in a row of negative prints

96
00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:10,119
Speaker 1: on I s M new orders. That popping back above

97
00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:14,400
Speaker 1: that fifty line between expansion and contraction I think would

98
00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:16,800
Speaker 1: be seen as favorable. I want to see how much

99
00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:19,719
Speaker 1: momentum it's going to have going into the year, whether

100
00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,440
Speaker 1: there's going to be followed through because we're not seeing

101
00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:24,960
Speaker 1: coming out of Detroit. What we would prefer with the

102
00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,120
Speaker 1: with the U S automakers, that's going to count next year.

103
00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:31,480
Speaker 1: Danielle de Martino Booth, thank you, thank you, really smart,

104
00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:35,640
Speaker 1: chief executive officer and chief strategistic Quill Intelligence, also a

105
00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:53,520
Speaker 1: former FED researcher and employee over in Dallas. There is

106
00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:57,360
Speaker 1: a consensus of sorts heading into twenty that it will

107
00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:00,279
Speaker 1: be a pretty good year, potentially if in double it's

108
00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:04,080
Speaker 1: yet again with respect returns on US equity industries, although

109
00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:08,839
Speaker 1: perhaps Europe may outperform. But how contingent is this on

110
00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,920
Speaker 1: a trade deal on a lot of things that are

111
00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:15,160
Speaker 1: all but certain joining US now? Katerina Seminetti, she is

112
00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,919
Speaker 1: UBS Financial Services private wealth advisor. Katerina, how much do

113
00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:22,080
Speaker 1: you buy into this consensus? I think it's primarily because

114
00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,720
Speaker 1: phase one. To me at least, it's a sure thing

115
00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:27,119
Speaker 1: because when you look at the components that go into

116
00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,800
Speaker 1: phase one, right, it's all the pieces that both parties

117
00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,680
Speaker 1: basically agree on and they I will even say more

118
00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:37,000
Speaker 1: so the pieces that they need. So China agreed that

119
00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:41,960
Speaker 1: to buying UM to buying US agricultural goods, that's a

120
00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,360
Speaker 1: done deal, right, you know, in our case we would

121
00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:47,520
Speaker 1: like to see more UM currency transparency, We would like

122
00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,520
Speaker 1: to have their markets open to our financial institutions. So,

123
00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,559
Speaker 1: despite of the news of the last couple of days,

124
00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,839
Speaker 1: I believe that Phase one is going through and also

125
00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,520
Speaker 1: think that market is almost taking it for granted. It's

126
00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,880
Speaker 1: almost like it's it's bought in and you know already

127
00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,560
Speaker 1: built into the consensus that it's going to happen. And

128
00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:06,599
Speaker 1: I think when this happens, we're going to have a

129
00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:10,280
Speaker 1: pretty positive reaction. My concern is not Phase one, it's

130
00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,080
Speaker 1: Phase two, because I think the components of Phase two

131
00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,440
Speaker 1: are significantly more important and also is something that we

132
00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,040
Speaker 1: don't quite have an agreement on. So as one of

133
00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:21,240
Speaker 1: the other things obviously moving the markets, Number one is

134
00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:24,000
Speaker 1: Lisa raised, is the trade deal that seems to be

135
00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,160
Speaker 1: such really driving kind of market sentiment and market performance.

136
00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,800
Speaker 1: Number two might be the Federal Reserve, which has been

137
00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:34,119
Speaker 1: very accommodative through the market, seems to be discounting maybe

138
00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,600
Speaker 1: one more rate cut next year. Is that kind of

139
00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,480
Speaker 1: your view and the view of UBS So we had

140
00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:43,400
Speaker 1: a you that Fed is going to cut continue cutting grades.

141
00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:45,840
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, our view even just from

142
00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,640
Speaker 1: quite recently was that they're going to cut another seventy

143
00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,480
Speaker 1: five basis points going into the next year. But we

144
00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,240
Speaker 1: are holding back on that view now because we think

145
00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:56,920
Speaker 1: that the benefit of what's happening right now is we

146
00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,400
Speaker 1: had fed that is extremely data driven. An economic data

147
00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,280
Speaker 1: that is coming in is not negative, you know, it's mixed,

148
00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,560
Speaker 1: but it is still quite positive. So I think that

149
00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:09,200
Speaker 1: FAD's reaction is going to be very much linked to

150
00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,240
Speaker 1: the results of the trade negotiations. So if we have

151
00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:16,040
Speaker 1: a positive outcome, if Phase two starts off, well, they

152
00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,720
Speaker 1: might not cut, they might hold off because it is

153
00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,680
Speaker 1: such a powerful tool in their arsenal, those rate cuts.

154
00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:24,080
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be reactive to, you know,

155
00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,040
Speaker 1: what they see, all right, So if you buy into

156
00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:28,800
Speaker 1: the census idea that things are going to be pretty

157
00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,600
Speaker 1: good next year, how do you square that with surveys

158
00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,800
Speaker 1: out of ubs showing that wealthy individuals are getting increasingly perished.

159
00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:39,360
Speaker 1: That is very true. So I think that we have

160
00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:41,680
Speaker 1: to look at the time frames. I believe there is

161
00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,600
Speaker 1: going to be a very positive reaction to phase one.

162
00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:48,280
Speaker 1: Once we get to phase two. It's an uncharted territory.

163
00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,440
Speaker 1: It's quite frankly, you know, like the the you know,

164
00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:53,960
Speaker 1: the the season two of Succession that I know so

165
00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,120
Speaker 1: so many of the radio hosts here seem to love.

166
00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,440
Speaker 1: And it's a great show because it isn't charted territory.

167
00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:02,480
Speaker 1: And we've leave that there might be a sell off. Now,

168
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:04,480
Speaker 1: we think that there might be a cell off, but

169
00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,600
Speaker 1: we think the severity of the sell off will not

170
00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:10,560
Speaker 1: be quite as extreme as markets anticipated. And as a

171
00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:12,800
Speaker 1: matter of fact, you know, we think the likelihood of

172
00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:16,400
Speaker 1: actual recession is very low. We think it might happen again,

173
00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:18,840
Speaker 1: It all depends on the trade. But we think sell

174
00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,440
Speaker 1: off is likely. And that's what we're getting from our clients.

175
00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,640
Speaker 1: When clients call us and they're concerned, they are concerned

176
00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:26,679
Speaker 1: about the cell off, they are concerned about the makeup

177
00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,240
Speaker 1: of their portfolios, and they're asking us, you know, quite frankly,

178
00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:31,800
Speaker 1: what to do in repositioning. So what are you telling

179
00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,840
Speaker 1: them now about positioning? Because we you know that the

180
00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:38,000
Speaker 1: fourth quarter last year, particularly December, was such a shock

181
00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,680
Speaker 1: to the marketplace, to the decline in the equity markets. Um,

182
00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:43,160
Speaker 1: and I'm sure as we get, you know, come up

183
00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,080
Speaker 1: to that anniversary again this year, some of your clients

184
00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:46,560
Speaker 1: are gonna be calling and asking what do you how

185
00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,800
Speaker 1: do you telling them to position themselves? So we tell

186
00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,679
Speaker 1: them to broader the time frame, And to your point,

187
00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,720
Speaker 1: I think that the fourth quarter of last year was

188
00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:57,080
Speaker 1: a really good practice. You know, it's almost like a

189
00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,439
Speaker 1: really good test for all of us for what's to come.

190
00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:02,000
Speaker 1: And there are several pieces in the portfolio design that

191
00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:04,480
Speaker 1: come into playing here. First of all, liquidity, so we

192
00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:07,679
Speaker 1: tell clients number one, going into turbulent markets, going into

193
00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:11,880
Speaker 1: volatile markets, have enough liquidity on hand, because then you know,

194
00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,960
Speaker 1: if we go into the prolonged period of volatility of

195
00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:18,240
Speaker 1: negative markets, we will not have to liquidate their portfolios.

196
00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,160
Speaker 1: The second side is of course focused on yield, focused

197
00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,560
Speaker 1: on the counter cyclical asset classes like real estate. UM

198
00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:29,679
Speaker 1: really really changing around and rebalancing and repositioning of fixed

199
00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:33,079
Speaker 1: income portfolios because when people think, um that we need

200
00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,440
Speaker 1: to pursue recession prove their portfolios, they focus on equity,

201
00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:38,800
Speaker 1: but but fixed income quite frankly, it is just as

202
00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:44,840
Speaker 1: important going forward. What's your biggest concern. My biggest concern

203
00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:49,960
Speaker 1: is that investors who are not prepared are going into

204
00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,480
Speaker 1: this market with too much of a bullish outlook, and

205
00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,079
Speaker 1: that concern goes back to you know, my days when

206
00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:59,400
Speaker 1: I started as a new financial advisor in and if

207
00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:02,280
Speaker 1: you remember, the timeframe was very similar when the talks

208
00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:06,800
Speaker 1: were about upcoming uh possible upcoming recession. But yet that

209
00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:09,560
Speaker 1: was the best performing here and people almost got a

210
00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:12,240
Speaker 1: little cavalier, you know, a little too brave and you know,

211
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,720
Speaker 1: overweight and equities Karatism and any Thank you so much

212
00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,800
Speaker 1: for joining us, Katarina uh sim in any ubs Financial Services,

213
00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:37,080
Speaker 1: Private Wealth Management. Let's continue our discussion of economics. The

214
00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,680
Speaker 1: Conference Board this morning released its leading economic indicator. To

215
00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,080
Speaker 1: walk us through the details, Bart van Ar, chief economist

216
00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:46,200
Speaker 1: at the conference aboard Bar, thanks so much for joining

217
00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:47,959
Speaker 1: us here on our Bloomberg in our Actor Broker studio.

218
00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,600
Speaker 1: What did the data tell you today, Well, the data

219
00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,360
Speaker 1: shows for the third month that we have a moderate decline.

220
00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:55,360
Speaker 1: But perhaps what's a little more important is that on

221
00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:57,720
Speaker 1: a six month basis, it's averaging it out a little bit.

222
00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,679
Speaker 1: We now see your very modest decline. It's only a

223
00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,880
Speaker 1: point one percent points, so it's nothing to really hugely

224
00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:06,600
Speaker 1: panic about. What's interesting are some of the underlying changes

225
00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:11,680
Speaker 1: that we're seeing in the index. So just carry on. Well,

226
00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,160
Speaker 1: what is most important is that in the previous months,

227
00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:16,080
Speaker 1: which was to a large extent driven by the decline

228
00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:19,400
Speaker 1: in manufacturing. Uh and that actually is still a little

229
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,400
Speaker 1: bit of that. They're certainly obviously you know, new orders

230
00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,600
Speaker 1: have still is still quite negative. But um, what we

231
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,160
Speaker 1: see now in this month, actually the labor market shows

232
00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,800
Speaker 1: a little bit of weakening. So one of our underlying

233
00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:33,800
Speaker 1: indexes is the average work week. One of the underlying

234
00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,679
Speaker 1: indexes initial claims. Both of them are now adding negatively

235
00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,520
Speaker 1: to the index. Now that sounds like bad news, but

236
00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,480
Speaker 1: let's not forget that the labor market has been extraordinary,

237
00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,160
Speaker 1: extraordinary strong, so at some point we would expect this,

238
00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:47,959
Speaker 1: So on balance, we actually think this is actually not

239
00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,040
Speaker 1: a terrible result. We really need to see how that's

240
00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:51,679
Speaker 1: going to evolve over the next few months. Is your

241
00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:55,360
Speaker 1: leading economic indicator weighted similarly to the US economy, which

242
00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:59,880
Speaker 1: is you know, two thirds seventy the consumer well leading

243
00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:01,440
Speaker 1: a con get next to always put a little bit

244
00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,080
Speaker 1: more emphasis on production and manufacturing, and a lot of

245
00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:05,640
Speaker 1: that is to that's where you have a lot more

246
00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:08,000
Speaker 1: of the volatility, and a lot of that is playing

247
00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,160
Speaker 1: through in the rest of the economy. Services tend to

248
00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,080
Speaker 1: be much more stable. The consumer tends to be very strong,

249
00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:16,839
Speaker 1: but it are exactly those elements actually services and consumers

250
00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:18,679
Speaker 1: that sort of keep us again a little bit more

251
00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:22,199
Speaker 1: moderate on making sure the huge implications from this negative

252
00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:25,320
Speaker 1: number today. It is interesting though that the trend is

253
00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,000
Speaker 1: shifting away from the steady improvement that we had been seeing,

254
00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,400
Speaker 1: particularly with the consumer, and we saw that again today

255
00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,920
Speaker 1: with the jobless claims just taking up a touch and

256
00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,760
Speaker 1: really just a fraction and from very very very low rate.

257
00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,400
Speaker 1: But at what point do you have to start paying

258
00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:44,320
Speaker 1: more attention to this is a sign of a weakening consumer, Well,

259
00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:46,160
Speaker 1: you first have to see it from multiple months. You

260
00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,840
Speaker 1: have to see considerably more layoffs happening over time, and

261
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:51,800
Speaker 1: again there's nothing of that in the works. We get

262
00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,360
Speaker 1: a holiday season coming up. It looks actually pretty strong

263
00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:57,040
Speaker 1: as far as the numbers are are giving us projections

264
00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,439
Speaker 1: right now, But is that a leading indicator or a

265
00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:01,560
Speaker 1: lagging indicator By the time that it gets to the

266
00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:04,520
Speaker 1: point where where where companies are like consumers, it's a

267
00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:07,320
Speaker 1: good point. Consumers and labor markets to a large extent

268
00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:10,360
Speaker 1: are a coincident indicators. So there are actually an assessment

269
00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:12,400
Speaker 1: of the current situation, and again when we look at

270
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,160
Speaker 1: the coincident part of this index, so assessment of what's

271
00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,720
Speaker 1: happening now, it's actually even stronger than it was in

272
00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,040
Speaker 1: previous months. So from the Federal Reserve, they seem to

273
00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,200
Speaker 1: be suggesting if you look at the FED fund futures, right,

274
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:26,640
Speaker 1: you know, maybe one more cut in September. This zer

275
00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:30,520
Speaker 1: leading economic indicator kind of kind of makes sense given

276
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,000
Speaker 1: kind of how the Fed's thinking about it right now. Absolutely,

277
00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:35,000
Speaker 1: I think, you know we have to cut. We just

278
00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:38,040
Speaker 1: had this past month. We do you really think that

279
00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:39,960
Speaker 1: the Father is not going to wait and see how

280
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,760
Speaker 1: these numbers are going to evolve. And again, you know,

281
00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,560
Speaker 1: this sort of slightly negative number was to be expected

282
00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,360
Speaker 1: this This market has been so strong for such a

283
00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:50,400
Speaker 1: long time, this economy, that we would expect this leveling off.

284
00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:52,320
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's going to be a pause for the

285
00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,600
Speaker 1: time being. Earlier the show, we were speaking with Danielle T.

286
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,640
Speaker 1: Martino Booth and she was talking about a bit of

287
00:14:56,680 --> 00:15:00,400
Speaker 1: a resurgence that we're seeing on some industrial measures and

288
00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,360
Speaker 1: that she expects some sort of gains to be had

289
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:07,680
Speaker 1: in that sector next year. What are you saying, well, actually,

290
00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,800
Speaker 1: this morning, the Philadelphia fat manufacturing surface showed up a

291
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:12,680
Speaker 1: little bit, So there are some numbers that are pointing

292
00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:14,840
Speaker 1: in the direction. But look, let's that's not full ourselves.

293
00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,640
Speaker 1: Manufacturing production is in deep trouble and it's still thinking.

294
00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,120
Speaker 1: But I do think that there might be something happening here.

295
00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:23,800
Speaker 1: We're particularly looking at China because a lot of this

296
00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,320
Speaker 1: decline in manufacturing production really or sort of originated in

297
00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,360
Speaker 1: China about two years ago. There we actually see a

298
00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:32,680
Speaker 1: little bit of a silver lining, A lot of overcapacity

299
00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,280
Speaker 1: is gone. China actually begin to stimulate the economy a

300
00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,800
Speaker 1: little bit in order to avoid a further slowdown, and

301
00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,400
Speaker 1: that will spill itself through into the global economy. So yeah,

302
00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:42,640
Speaker 1: we would tie onto this idea that that we might

303
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,840
Speaker 1: see in an easy or perhaps even the bottoming out

304
00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:46,800
Speaker 1: of many production off there, you have a recession in

305
00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,200
Speaker 1: your model at any point, Well, yeah, at some point,

306
00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,400
Speaker 1: at some point, the recession is going to happen. But

307
00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,000
Speaker 1: you know, these indexes are looking sort of six months out.

308
00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:56,960
Speaker 1: I would go as far as say, you know, I

309
00:15:57,360 --> 00:15:59,120
Speaker 1: dare to say something about the next nine months. I

310
00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:02,000
Speaker 1: think until the sun rock next year, I'd be surprised

311
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,800
Speaker 1: if the US economy would run into huge trouble with

312
00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,280
Speaker 1: the big R word, the big word. There you go,

313
00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:12,080
Speaker 1: all right, So what did you think in terms of

314
00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,360
Speaker 1: the response from CEO is with respect to trade, we

315
00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,640
Speaker 1: are getting headlines every day that give us a different story.

316
00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,880
Speaker 1: How much is that imperative for their modeling forms. There's

317
00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:26,400
Speaker 1: something unusual, of course, at a moment about this situation

318
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,720
Speaker 1: where the consumers are still very confident. Our consumer confidence

319
00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,320
Speaker 1: in the confidence world keeps you at a record levels,

320
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,200
Speaker 1: a little bit more volatile the last few months, whereas

321
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,640
Speaker 1: this business confidence index, which is the other thing we do,

322
00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,640
Speaker 1: has actually been declining over and over again. We know

323
00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:43,040
Speaker 1: that a lot of that is tied to the trade disputes.

324
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,400
Speaker 1: We've asked CEO, is this We see it in our

325
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,880
Speaker 1: service that they do tie these kind of things. So

326
00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:49,440
Speaker 1: there was a little bit of a feel in the

327
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:51,800
Speaker 1: last two three weeks that we will be getting somewhere.

328
00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:55,400
Speaker 1: But you know, has the spread ever been further apart

329
00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,640
Speaker 1: in terms of the business confidence versus consumer confidence? Not

330
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 1: in the past two decades. Would say this is this

331
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:04,000
Speaker 1: is pretty unusual. But again it's also, of course, this

332
00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:06,480
Speaker 1: whole trade dispute is pretty unusual, so it's perhaps not

333
00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,240
Speaker 1: surprising that CEOs are reacting so much strongly to this.

334
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:11,959
Speaker 1: Do you see that in your is it shopping your

335
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,640
Speaker 1: data anywhere? Maybe business investments something like that. Yes, we

336
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,480
Speaker 1: we do have manufactures new orders in there, and again

337
00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:21,919
Speaker 1: that actually picked up a little bit this month. But

338
00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,240
Speaker 1: you know these numbers are very val volatile, so we

339
00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 1: we never take too many implications of a month of

340
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,400
Speaker 1: a month. It's the six months average that is important

341
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,440
Speaker 1: for it. And there again I would say maybe easy

342
00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:33,720
Speaker 1: at this point in time, but you're right. I mean

343
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,560
Speaker 1: linking it back to business confidence, the key driver of

344
00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:39,719
Speaker 1: business investment will be that confidence number going back up.

345
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,840
Speaker 1: So a deal with China, even if it is a

346
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,440
Speaker 1: small deal, will be enough in our view to actually

347
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,199
Speaker 1: get business confidence in its right. Bart Vynark, thank you

348
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 1: so much for being with us. Bart vyan Ark is

349
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,720
Speaker 1: the chief economist at the conference board talking about the

350
00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:58,240
Speaker 1: slight decline that we saw in the leading consumer confidence figures.

351
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:15,320
Speaker 1: Let's switch gears here and get take a look at

352
00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:19,479
Speaker 1: the business of pets. Ron Coglin is the CEO of Petco.

353
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 1: Petco was taken private I believe back in CBC Capital

354
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,439
Speaker 1: Partners and some others. H Ron, thanks so much for

355
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,800
Speaker 1: joining us. Love to just get an update on pet

356
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:32,280
Speaker 1: Co and kind of where the market is right now

357
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 1: for you guys. Absolutely well, thanks for thanks for having me.

358
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:40,200
Speaker 1: A year ago I joined you and uh we were

359
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,160
Speaker 1: talking about taking a hundred million dollar bet on our

360
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 1: business by ticking out all products in our official ingredients.

361
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,919
Speaker 1: And today I'm proud to say that not only have

362
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,160
Speaker 1: we moved one point five million pounds of food with

363
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 1: artificial ingredients, but our business is gone from declining three

364
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,680
Speaker 1: to four to up three to four percent. So we've

365
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,080
Speaker 1: had this contention and what's good for the pet is

366
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,720
Speaker 1: good for Petco and it's proven true. Ron are we

367
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,679
Speaker 1: reaching peak pet where people are buying health food for

368
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:15,160
Speaker 1: their dogs. One of the wonderful things about the pet

369
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 1: market is it's a growth market, so I would say

370
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 1: it's not peaking. Um more and more, there's an adage

371
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,439
Speaker 1: pets used to be in the outdoors, then they were

372
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,160
Speaker 1: in the backyard, and then they were in the house,

373
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 1: and now there in our bed. So more and more

374
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:30,639
Speaker 1: folks are wanting to take care of the pets the

375
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,320
Speaker 1: way they take care of themselves, and that includes avoiding

376
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:37,400
Speaker 1: artificial ingredients. So interesting here, so give us a sense

377
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 1: of kind of the growth dynamic of kind of the

378
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 1: global pet food industry or the US pet food industry. Yeah,

379
00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,919
Speaker 1: so it's a six percent growth business. Um, you have

380
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:50,960
Speaker 1: lastly one percent growth in the number of pets. But

381
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,879
Speaker 1: in terms of how folks are taking care of their pets,

382
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,240
Speaker 1: that type of food that they're serving pets, you know,

383
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 1: they're more and more they want to move away from,

384
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 1: you know, the old roys of the world and towards

385
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 1: the better for you foods. And a perfect example is

386
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 1: my my dog Yummy. He's a yellow lab he goes.

387
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 1: He's going on eleven years old, and before I joined

388
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 1: pet Go, I was feeding him the middle of the

389
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 1: road food and shame on me. And I switched him

390
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,639
Speaker 1: to a productal just Food for Dogs, which is a

391
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 1: human grade food, um, fresh fish and sweet potatoes. He

392
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 1: medi lost fifteen towns and he's back to acting like

393
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 1: a puppy. I feel like this is a p s A.

394
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 1: You know, this is the reason why. Yeah, but I

395
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 1: wanted to talk about, you know, the growth market. There

396
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 1: has been a shift people having fewer kids having more dogs,

397
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,479
Speaker 1: and I'm wondering, you know, how far along in an

398
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 1: evolution are way. Wasn't it something like people adopted more

399
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 1: pets than than had kids last year or something. I've

400
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 1: heard that statistic. I I know more about pet when

401
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 1: I do that kids At this point, my mine are

402
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 1: essentially the house. But um, I have heard that statistic.

403
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:57,919
Speaker 1: You know in your first comment about p s A.

404
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,360
Speaker 1: One of the things that we're moving the artificial did

405
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 1: was it regained the soul of pet go and really

406
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:07,120
Speaker 1: unlocked our partner's passion for pets, and it was really

407
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 1: powerful for us. Um. But people are they're waiting longer

408
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,879
Speaker 1: to have kids, and the pets are replacing some of

409
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 1: that that loving being in the house, and I think

410
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,399
Speaker 1: it's good for for people and good for America. I

411
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,159
Speaker 1: will just say this, given the fact that dogs are

412
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 1: more likely to be consistently loving than your children, perhaps

413
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 1: people are getting annoyed with getting talk back. So n

414
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 1: give us a sense of seeing my kids. Give us

415
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 1: a sense of the competitive environment. Is is the pet

416
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 1: food business one of those retail or consumer businesses that's

417
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 1: been disrupted by say technology, much like Amazon has done.

418
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 1: So give us a sense of the competitive environment. Yeah. Absolutely,

419
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 1: I'm not going to claim that that has an impacted

420
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 1: the pet industry. You have the Amazon factor, you have

421
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 1: the Chewy factor, and they've seen success in the pet

422
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 1: market UM and quite frankly, Petco had to go back

423
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,640
Speaker 1: and retool, and that was the bad news. The good

424
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,679
Speaker 1: news is we did and it's working so UM. In

425
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 1: the last year we've launched buy online, pick up in

426
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 1: stores and hugely successful. We reached over a million downloads

427
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 1: of our app. We have repeat delivery, and so our

428
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 1: online business is growing twenty plus right now. So what

429
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 1: was a was a threat is now turning into a

430
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 1: tell went for us. One thing that we've seen recently

431
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 1: is a bit of volatility in the speculative grade credit market,

432
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 1: and I'm just wondering how much money you need to

433
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 1: raise at this point, given the fact that you have

434
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 1: a BU to your credit rating and things are getting

435
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,879
Speaker 1: a little bit more challenging for some companies. Yeah, we

436
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 1: we don't need UH. We don't need to raise money

437
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,239
Speaker 1: and we have access to capital as we need it.

438
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 1: So from that standpoint, we're solid. We have two great

439
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 1: private equity primary partners in CBC Partners and CPP. They

440
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 1: can't pension fund UH, and we're back to growth on

441
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 1: the top line, and we're looking forward to sharing a

442
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:07,719
Speaker 1: result on the bottom line with our lenders in a

443
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 1: few weeks. So we're good on that front, uh, and

444
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 1: we feel good about our execution and our financial health.

445
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 1: Where's the biggest opportunity for growth for pet Go. I'd

446
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 1: say two things. One is digital, continuing to drive our

447
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 1: digital business, and the second is we're shifting to services

448
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 1: and those are services that those digital players don't have.

449
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,959
Speaker 1: So we've taken our grooming business from a declining to

450
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 1: planning near double digit business, our training businesses and growth,

451
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 1: and we are driving probably the fastest vet network build

452
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 1: out in history. And what's significant about that is too

453
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: for the benefit of the pets. We're talking about affordable

454
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 1: vet care. A lot of pets don't get the vet

455
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 1: care they need because of affordability. And the second thing

456
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: is where we put a vet, we get the bet income,

457
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: but we also get a UM four to seven point

458
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 1: lift in our center sorece sales. So it's good for

459
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: the pet and it's good for our business. Ron Coglin,

460
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:08,919
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. Ron Coglin

461
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 1: is Petco chief executive officer. Talking about a push toward

462
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: more natural ingredients for people's pet Thanks for listening to

463
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,439
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe and

464
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform

465
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: you prefer. Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

466
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: I'm Lisa abram Woyds. I'm on Twitter at Lisa A.

467
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 1: Bram wits one. Before the podcast, you can always catch

468
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 1: us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio