Speaker 1: Check it on Man No down many check it on
Speaker 1: Thursday morning, November. It's the Meeting the Book podcast live
Speaker 1: from the D in beautiful downtown Las Vegas. Not at
Speaker 1: Cercy yet, they're working at the Kinks. I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: lie to you, but we love the D. It's our
Speaker 1: whole little nook and cranny rolled into one. Uh live
Speaker 1: here in front of a packed crowd. Mikey, I mean there, ah,
Speaker 1: why there is standing room only? Well, the last person
Speaker 1: to leave Bar Canada please turn out the lights. I mean,
Speaker 1: but I mean but the Sunday before Circle Open, we
Speaker 1: had a hundred and fifty people in this area. And
Speaker 1: last Sunday I called over. They said we've got three customers.
Speaker 1: So well, we still love over. It's COVID safe, it's safe.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of distancing. That's the voice of Mike Palm,
Speaker 1: the vice president of operations at Circuit Sports. And that's
Speaker 1: the voice of Todd wishnep know what. And here's the thing.
Speaker 1: He got so upset at me calling his his attic
Speaker 1: a cork addict that now he has given us a
Speaker 1: virtual background. Todd, please explain your background. For those who
Speaker 1: will watch the video of this well, you know, as
Speaker 1: as you know, I like to talk about models and
Speaker 1: and how if you put bad things and models, they
Speaker 1: come out bad, and if you put good things and
Speaker 1: model they come out good. That's why I call a
Speaker 1: real good model a Google Loosh model. Some data some
Speaker 1: eyes see with your eyes. And that's my guy back
Speaker 1: there who runs my Goolosh model. There. It is Todd
Speaker 1: Wish to everybody, and our rotating guest today, who has
Speaker 1: been on the show many times before. We're happy to
Speaker 1: have him back this week from the Power Rank, the
Speaker 1: creator of The Power Rank, and of course the host
Speaker 1: and co host of more than one podcast, including his
Speaker 1: own football analytics podcast and one that he does with
Speaker 1: his buddy Jim Sunnis. Uh, fan duel, It's PhD from
Speaker 1: Stanford and Fang. How you doing it? I'm doing great, kill,
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for having me on. Intro? Was all
Speaker 1: that accurate? I believe that was all accurate. I think
Speaker 1: my PhD somewhere around this room. Uh, but I don't
Speaker 1: know if I could find the proof. But yeah, I
Speaker 1: believe that to be accurate. Can you tell people I
Speaker 1: love it? I know you probably hate that I do
Speaker 1: this all the time. Can you tell people the subject
Speaker 1: of your PhD just because I think it's awesome just
Speaker 1: to hear it. Yeah, so I did my PhD and
Speaker 1: statistical mechanics. So it's a branch of physics where you
Speaker 1: try to understand the bulk properties of matter from the
Speaker 1: fact that it's made up of atoms, and so you
Speaker 1: have a lot of noise. I love quantum physics, and yeah,
Speaker 1: a new ton of physics is awesome. So so anyways,
Speaker 1: when you think about things on the atomic level, there's
Speaker 1: a lot of noise. Things jiggle around, right, And though
Speaker 1: that type of noise ends up being looking exactly like
Speaker 1: what we see in sports. So it ended up being
Speaker 1: a perfect background to to get into sports and understanding
Speaker 1: what happens when the randomness and football and basketball and
Speaker 1: all kinds of other sports. God, do you feel bad
Speaker 1: about your ghoulash model? Now here's the thing, quantum mechanics
Speaker 1: and um and what was that? What was the other thing? Oh,
Speaker 1: Mike's belly and your belly are very similar. A lot
Speaker 1: of things jiggle around a lot. You heard, I threw
Speaker 1: my belly into it. This guy loses a few pounds,
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, it's other people's bellies to
Speaker 1: Todd was very close to getting a PhD in in
Speaker 1: in quantum physics as well, but he focused on his
Speaker 1: career as a D three basketball player. Right as a
Speaker 1: converted Orthodox Jude D three baller, I don't mind our
Speaker 1: kindergarten antics over here, but I do love what did
Speaker 1: you say it? Oh, I'd rather be a D three
Speaker 1: basketball player, man ship, Oh yeah, hell yeah? And anyways,
Speaker 1: you plays I didn't play Division three. I would have claimed,
Speaker 1: He claims he would have been a legend at Division
Speaker 1: three basketball. The problem is that I got brainwashed into
Speaker 1: a rabbinical seminary in Jerusalem, learning Talmud ten hours a day,
Speaker 1: and then that ruined my basketball career. But I was
Speaker 1: quite good. I probably could have played even Division two.
Speaker 1: But uh, you know whatever, you could have been a regular.
Speaker 1: Who was that kid in Baltimore that were the Yama
Speaker 1: cut that was like a big he? Actually, you know,
Speaker 1: Tamir Goodman went to the high school I went to
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh, and I was the superstar before him. Tam Goodman. Well,
Speaker 1: growing up in d C. There all of a sudden
Speaker 1: there was this kid Tamir Goodman in Baltimore. Yeah, Jewish Jordan.
Speaker 1: They called him. He was supposed to be like the
Speaker 1: next big thing. What happened and nothing happened? Maryland. Maryland
Speaker 1: was supposedly recruiting him, but he really wasn't that good
Speaker 1: and he ended up but he still played Division one.
Speaker 1: That's still pretty good. Yeah, give him that. All right,
Speaker 1: it's week nine in the National Football League. Todd, did
Speaker 1: you want to update records? I think this is what
Speaker 1: starts the show now. Sure. Gilly the Iceman had a
Speaker 1: huge week last week. I believe it's three and nada
Speaker 1: to put him from n in eleven one to twelve
Speaker 1: eleven and one. He gets over the five hundred mark. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: he loses his first teaser in a while and goes
Speaker 1: to six and two. Mikey had a poor week from
Speaker 1: one and two. He went to thirteen ten and one.
Speaker 1: Still a very solid season, but from Circa and I
Speaker 1: also had a good week of two and one to
Speaker 1: move to eleven and thirteen. Me and Mikey both lost
Speaker 1: our teasers, so all three of us are six and
Speaker 1: two on teasers. Still extremely respectable and Mikey the the
Speaker 1: Circa Survivor update is amazing. Still week after week, Yeah,
Speaker 1: we were at three fifty going into week eight, three
Speaker 1: entries did not did not get submitted again. So that
Speaker 1: makes all eight weeks that we've had in one or
Speaker 1: more Survivor entries not get submitted. Is that the same person?
Speaker 1: It was the one? This time it was a singular
Speaker 1: person who had three. I feel bad for the guy.
Speaker 1: I mean, he gets to Thanksgiving with three, that's a
Speaker 1: pretty good spot. I think you're gonna have to when
Speaker 1: you get to Thanksgiving to Derek's double option where you
Speaker 1: pick both sides of the Lions Texans or if you've
Speaker 1: got to, I mean, if you've got to, A lot
Speaker 1: of people have already used Baltimore in Pittsburgh and don't.
Speaker 1: They won't have that game available on Thanksgiving. So that's
Speaker 1: a big strategical decision this week. Where did you did
Speaker 1: you think at the start of the year, when you
Speaker 1: entered Survivor Gil and you're still alive, correct, that you
Speaker 1: would be holding out the football team for Thanksgiving? That's
Speaker 1: the best pet you know, it's it's it's a huge consideration.
Speaker 1: And by the way, they might be a consideration this
Speaker 1: week too, right, but there's a few of them right Houston,
Speaker 1: because Jake Gluton is starting for Jacksonville, Washington. Um, obviously
Speaker 1: what you just mentioned in Pittsburgh is a consideration. We
Speaker 1: don't know if Matthew Stafford is playing this week. So
Speaker 1: they're their teams that you know that don't ee that
Speaker 1: we don't know from week to week what what's going
Speaker 1: to happen with them, So you know, do you play
Speaker 1: against Detroit anyway? Detroit plays on Thanks again, but that's
Speaker 1: not the same thing. Those first three teams are considerations,
Speaker 1: so I don't know. Three thirty one now, so we lost,
Speaker 1: uh yeah, lost nineteen um nine of them I believe
Speaker 1: lost with the with the pack or no, the Bengals,
Speaker 1: and then a seven with the Packers and then another
Speaker 1: three to lose nineteen to go from three fifty and
Speaker 1: what one circle? Quarterly? What was the record? Um seventeen
Speaker 1: and three? I believe split four ways. If Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: would have covered on Monday night, it would have been
Speaker 1: split seven ways. It was pretty interesting. Wow, people, some
Speaker 1: people took out credit lines to hedge. Oh I'm sure
Speaker 1: they hedged. They hedged with the Giants and won the
Speaker 1: straight bet because if if Tampa would have covered, they
Speaker 1: would have got a seventh of the pool. So I
Speaker 1: mean they must have hated to make that bet, and
Speaker 1: then the end must have just been thrilled. Yeah. Wow, alright,
Speaker 1: well new quarterly starts now, right, starts this week twelve,
Speaker 1: and then you do five weeks at the five weeks
Speaker 1: for the last through seventeen see and of course survivor
Speaker 1: the cork being that thanks Giving is its own day.
Speaker 1: So we are through eight weeks next week. If you
Speaker 1: get through your you're through half, but you're not really
Speaker 1: through half because Thanksgivings. Thanksgiving us the big roadblock for
Speaker 1: a lot of people. But the debate, the great debate
Speaker 1: this week now where we only lost nineteen and we
Speaker 1: still have three thirty one, is do you think there
Speaker 1: will be someone or multiple people that go eighteen and
Speaker 1: oh and and it's been a pretty good debate. I
Speaker 1: think there's gonna be a lot of people that go,
Speaker 1: you know why, because there's some teams that are just
Speaker 1: so bad in this NFL. They can't beat anybody, and
Speaker 1: you can pick against them. I said this on Erica,
Speaker 1: and I said, I haven't had a chance to talk
Speaker 1: to Mike about this, but if you hadn't included the
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving anomaly, you would have had maybe a hundred people
Speaker 1: end up going the whole way. I'm all shaw Um
Speaker 1: who is a bit player at Vesta, and uh texted
Speaker 1: me this week. He's so mad he only bought one
Speaker 1: survivor he's still alive, like you are. I think you
Speaker 1: bought two, bought one, he said. If I had it
Speaker 1: to do over again, I'd have bought five because I
Speaker 1: needed them to go into Thanksgiving and sacrifice a couple
Speaker 1: of them to move on. He's right, He's right. I
Speaker 1: lost my first one the very first week, and I've
Speaker 1: had these second one the whole way through. Okay, let's
Speaker 1: talk week nine before we, uh, we get into our
Speaker 1: best bets. Let's talk about the Thursday night game. Maybe
Speaker 1: this is somebody's best bet and this has been the
Speaker 1: strangest Thursday Night game of them all. Uh. It was
Speaker 1: a line that was on the board, then off the board,
Speaker 1: then on the board, then off the board, then back
Speaker 1: on the board. The reason for that A J. Dillon
Speaker 1: of the Packers tested positive and that ended up creating
Speaker 1: a situation where the Packers where you didn't know if
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones was gonna play anyway. By the way, Aaron
Speaker 1: Jones questionable tonight, they say if he suited up, don't
Speaker 1: expect the full workload even if it does, even if
Speaker 1: he does play, um and so the Packers are gonna
Speaker 1: be depleted there Um Jamal They're already without Jamal Williams,
Speaker 1: so it'll be Tyler Irvin and Dexter Williams household names
Speaker 1: in the backfield, whether Jones plays or not. Uh. Then
Speaker 1: there was the Niners. They already have the Garoppolo injury
Speaker 1: and the and the more importantly the Kittle injury from
Speaker 1: this past weekend. Kittle's gone for basically the rest of
Speaker 1: the regular season. Garoppolo will be gone from multiple weeks,
Speaker 1: whether you think that's the downgraded Nick Mullins or not.
Speaker 1: Then they had a Kendrick Born positive test and because
Speaker 1: of tracing. Then last night we hear, well, here's the deal.
Speaker 1: They're also gonna have a bunch of guys that are
Speaker 1: on the COVID nineteen reserve list, including Brandon aiyuk uh,
Speaker 1: including Deebo Samuel who already had an injury anyway, So
Speaker 1: the Niners will not have a single player tonight who
Speaker 1: played a down in the NFC Championship, and they will
Speaker 1: have players with the names of Trent Taylor and Richie
Speaker 1: James out on offense tonight. Maybe a Kevin White signing.
Speaker 1: That might be one name you remember, Chicago Bears first
Speaker 1: round draft pick. But they're gonna have to think of
Speaker 1: calling players up like River Craik Aft or Chris Finkey.
Speaker 1: I don't know who they'll end up in the end,
Speaker 1: but that's the story. And so the line has crept
Speaker 1: up all week long. I crept up, has just zoomed upward.
Speaker 1: And this morning it had gone past the seven to
Speaker 1: seven and a half right now, Todd, you tell me
Speaker 1: if if this is right, I'm seeing more sevens than
Speaker 1: seven and a half. So what are you saying I'm seeing? Uh? Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I would say I would say it's like seven, yeah,
Speaker 1: close to seven, closer to seven right now. But I
Speaker 1: did see it was It was seven and a half
Speaker 1: this morning for sure. And there's some spots words seven
Speaker 1: a half. Anyway, does anybody have a play given that
Speaker 1: whole backdrop, ed will start with you anything on tonight's
Speaker 1: Thursday night game at all? Well, it kind of depends
Speaker 1: on what Todd is gonna suit off for wide receiver
Speaker 1: for the for the Niners tonight. With this with his
Speaker 1: with his basketball skills, So, um, injury can't I'm injured,
Speaker 1: I'm out, alright, alright, Well, that that definitely changes my mind.
Speaker 1: The thing that's really interesting to me about San Francisco
Speaker 1: is that, you know, they've been really good despite all
Speaker 1: their defensive injuries this year. My numbers have liked them.
Speaker 1: My numbers would have actually predicted that movement from Seattle
Speaker 1: being a three point favorite to one point favorite last week.
Speaker 1: But you know, the injuries are piling up, and when
Speaker 1: you have no wide receivers and you and you're missing
Speaker 1: a difference maker like George Kittle, Um, it's hard to
Speaker 1: I mean, it's hard for me to quantify what those
Speaker 1: cluster injuries means. So uh, it's a past for me. Um,
Speaker 1: although I do think seven and seven seven and a
Speaker 1: half for for Green Bay on the road is a lot. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that that it definitely met resistance initially at seven, that
Speaker 1: it did get through to seven half. I'm seeing six
Speaker 1: and a half in some spots now too. Mikey, anything
Speaker 1: is Jimmy g playing, He's done, it's Nick mullins. I Uh,
Speaker 1: it's not an official play, um, but in real life,
Speaker 1: I've I've got plus seven. I just I can't get
Speaker 1: over in my mind the Packers two performances in California
Speaker 1: last year, both when they went to play the Chargers
Speaker 1: in Carson and got completely dominated, and then and then
Speaker 1: the NFC Championship games. So it's tough to lay seven
Speaker 1: on the road. And let's face it, their offense has
Speaker 1: gone dormant for stretches now. Um, they scored ten early
Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay and then and then nothing, and then
Speaker 1: last week a Vikings team that's still depleted and young defense,
Speaker 1: and I know Zimmer's coaching them up and they're going
Speaker 1: to get better as the year goes along. But I mean,
Speaker 1: they couldn't put points on the board in the second
Speaker 1: half of that game either. So I like the points tonight,
Speaker 1: taking the points, but not an official bet Todd anything.
Speaker 1: I leaned the opposite way. I I saw a thing
Speaker 1: on Twitter that showed all the people that we're in
Speaker 1: the starting lineup for San Francisco's offense and like everybody's out,
Speaker 1: basically just like you just gave even Lineman everybody. It's
Speaker 1: just ridiculous. And have you had enough of the Nick
Speaker 1: Mullins and Bobby Bethard experience? Is you know? I mean
Speaker 1: it's ridiculous. Who is the guy's name, CJ. Grandson, his grandson,
Speaker 1: just like Dwayne Haskins is Clem Haskins. I call c J. Bethard,
Speaker 1: Bobby Bethord, so so c J. Bethord and uh and
Speaker 1: Mullins experience is ridic lists and not worthy. Plus the
Speaker 1: Packers got smoked last week against Minnesota. I think you're
Speaker 1: you're going to run into a buzz saw here the Niners.
Speaker 1: This is not their year. It's it's a check please
Speaker 1: for the Niners. This year it is through no fault
Speaker 1: of their own. Man. They I mean, it's incredible, It's right,
Speaker 1: it's incredible what they've been able to do. The running
Speaker 1: back position has been a turnstyle. By the way, Trent
Speaker 1: Williams their standout, you know, multiple year Pro bowler with Washington,
Speaker 1: who's now with the Niners. He's on the COVID nineteen
Speaker 1: reserve list. You're right there. Their offensive lineup tonight is
Speaker 1: like a baseball lineup on like a random getaway day
Speaker 1: in the middle of July where they're just throwing in everybody.
Speaker 1: It's like Tau Schman and Kick, Cairo Estrada and Mike
Speaker 1: Ford and you know, it's the it's it's ridiculous. I
Speaker 1: believe that's pronounced Teloman by the way. Yeah, alright, so
Speaker 1: no official plays then for anybody, I will say, I'll
Speaker 1: probably I do think by game time I will probably
Speaker 1: talk myself into a Green Bay teaser leg. That's not sad.
Speaker 1: That's probably going to be in our teaser here, might
Speaker 1: I think? So? Now, what about with this take on
Speaker 1: the forty Niners offense? This is still a pretty high total,
Speaker 1: forty eight and a half if one team is so depleted, um,
Speaker 1: and it's come down from from north of fifty. But yeah,
Speaker 1: so I know people, I know people that teased Packers
Speaker 1: and the under Tonighters and unders. So down to one
Speaker 1: and and under fifty four and a half would very
Speaker 1: well be a play for me on Primetime Action tonight
Speaker 1: on the MSG plus Live from the South Point. All right,
Speaker 1: Uh okay, best bets AD Number one for you, sir
Speaker 1: is Yeah. So the number one game I kind of
Speaker 1: like this week is New Orleans with the points at
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. I think this is gonna be incredible match
Speaker 1: up with with what New Orleans to be able to
Speaker 1: do with their offense without Michael Thomas for most of
Speaker 1: the year very high. My efficiency numbers. Third, I look
Speaker 1: at a Justice success rate. Um, we'll see what happens
Speaker 1: with Antonio Brown. But uh, and they faced Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: that's got one of the best defenses in the league.
Speaker 1: So I feel like that's an excellent matchup. Um. When
Speaker 1: I run the numbers for this game, it's hard for
Speaker 1: me to make a line that's as big as four
Speaker 1: or I actually bet this at five earlier in this week. Um,
Speaker 1: when you just look at the data from this year,
Speaker 1: including you know how New orleans Is defense has kind
Speaker 1: of struggled. Um, I mean the most I can make
Speaker 1: this is is uh is Tampa Baby by by two
Speaker 1: and a half points. So I definitely think there's value
Speaker 1: on the New Orleans side. I think this is a
Speaker 1: key for I mean, I think, you know, we could
Speaker 1: definitely see these teams, uh, you know, meeting in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: I think the to the primary Super Bowl contenders in
Speaker 1: the league, along with Seattle. But I'll take New Orleans
Speaker 1: in the points. Aaron Shots is number one team in
Speaker 1: d v o A at this point in the season,
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But New Orleans has uh definitely
Speaker 1: not had a intact lineup, Michael Thomas in and out
Speaker 1: of the lineup, and Drew Brees. Though this year this
Speaker 1: is an amazing stat. Drew Brees last week one pass
Speaker 1: beyond twenty yards in the air. One for the season. Six.
Speaker 1: That's a lot for him. I think a lot of
Speaker 1: those six passes came against Detroit and maybe five, is
Speaker 1: that right. I didn't know that because everyone was complaining
Speaker 1: about his A dot average death to target on the
Speaker 1: I think it was the Sunday night game before. I
Speaker 1: think they were playing Green Bay and then I actually
Speaker 1: had New Orleans, uh, you know, covering the points in Detroit,
Speaker 1: and he was airing it out. He was whipping him downfield.
Speaker 1: I think he's capable of doing it, but I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know whether it's the game plan or what not. Um,
Speaker 1: but just didn't get to Kamara and let him beat
Speaker 1: fourteen guys for a first down every time. So don't
Speaker 1: fix it. And you know, I'm sorry. I keep going,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, No, no, no no, no, I think that's exactly
Speaker 1: I'm kind of done. I mean, I think, I mean,
Speaker 1: I mean, we'll see what happens with Antonio Brown. We'll
Speaker 1: see what happens when Michael Thomas gets back. I think
Speaker 1: he's still capable. Um. So, I I know people like
Speaker 1: to make a lot of what he's doing in terms
Speaker 1: of how far he's doing in the ball downfield. But
Speaker 1: even though he isn't, they've still been very efficient on
Speaker 1: the offensive side of the ball. Uh. And they'll they'll
Speaker 1: they'll get one of the toughest tests in this game.
Speaker 1: And you're right, Antonio Brown makes his debut for the Buccaneers. Todd,
Speaker 1: You're right, that is that does seem to be their
Speaker 1: game plan throughout three yards to Camara and haven't beat
Speaker 1: I think you said fourteen guys. Uh, Mikey, I've come.
Speaker 1: I've talked about your a dot all all year long.
Speaker 1: And also I've never heard of that. Heard of eight
Speaker 1: gaps holes but not eight dots is a dump average
Speaker 1: depth of belly twice now in the first ten minutes.
Speaker 1: It's a little over the top. It's a little over
Speaker 1: the top, dot, um, But this Camara to speak to Camara,
Speaker 1: I mean, what what is the stat He's got five
Speaker 1: seventy receiving yards and five forty are yak? I mean
Speaker 1: it's incredible. Everything's behind the line of scrimmage. Think about
Speaker 1: for I didn't play fantasy this year. I think about
Speaker 1: for fantasy football players who like. The three guys they
Speaker 1: were drafting at the top were Zeke, you know, uh,
Speaker 1: McCaffrey done for a huge stretch, he's coming back this week.
Speaker 1: And then the other one was Kwan, who had gone
Speaker 1: for the year. So if you ended up with Camara
Speaker 1: at four, you like won the lottery. Zeke has character issues.
Speaker 1: Pollard looks better than I like it. Yeah, he's Pollard
Speaker 1: has more energy than Zeke doesn't. If you're watching, yes, yes,
Speaker 1: did you want to interrupt? Go ahead, go ahead and
Speaker 1: want to interrupt? I waited patiently. You didn't. I did, Actually,
Speaker 1: I said, whild talking. I agreed with the Pollard. It
Speaker 1: was a good point. Zeke has no energy. I agree. Now.
Speaker 1: I don't know if this bothers you guys, but I
Speaker 1: can't stand when they get on ESPN or Fox Sports
Speaker 1: and the narrative becomes Drew Brees doesn't throw the ball
Speaker 1: down the field. We know Drew Brees doesn't throw the
Speaker 1: ball down the field. Let's not go overboard. They still
Speaker 1: move the football, folks. Okay, so this is I think
Speaker 1: that there's there's like these narratives like last year, Oh Miami,
Speaker 1: dol often stink. Ryan Fitzpatrick stinks, what are you talking about?
Speaker 1: Or here's another narrative, Trump's outperforming, it's over, it's done.
Speaker 1: The whole thing's over. Trump minus seven hundred, it's all done.
Speaker 1: Slow your role, folks, Slow your role. We know Drew
Speaker 1: Brees can't throw the football down the field, but as
Speaker 1: Ed has very ably pointed out, they still move the
Speaker 1: football and that's part of the game, moving the football.
Speaker 1: Am I wrong? Gil, You're not You're not incorrect, Todd
Speaker 1: wish you're not incorrect, and and Todd I agree with
Speaker 1: you because I feel like you see the flip side
Speaker 1: of that argument to be like, look at this guy
Speaker 1: in his cannon arm right, Like that's gonna like propel
Speaker 1: Drew Lock. Drew Lock's got a cannon. Yeah, but count
Speaker 1: to seven. I still have New Orleans. I still have
Speaker 1: New Orleans at full strength. Is one of the five
Speaker 1: best teams in football. I still believe. You want to
Speaker 1: say something, Mikey, I first pick, just to get it
Speaker 1: back on the rails, thank you. I I regretted that
Speaker 1: I didn't take the football team against the Cowboys because
Speaker 1: you know, for four weeks in a row, I was
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys, right, four weeks in a row on
Speaker 1: this on this megapod, And in the last two weeks
Speaker 1: I didn't aren't number are number one picks are about
Speaker 1: to be the same? You? You? You know, I think
Speaker 1: so you You actually are lucky probably if you had
Speaker 1: Philly last week and you covered them. Remember I said,
Speaker 1: if the number was out at late ten and I
Speaker 1: and and I did, and I didn't feel good about it.
Speaker 1: How How is that touchdown, that final touchdown not reverse?
Speaker 1: How that's as bad as the East Carolina game at
Speaker 1: Tulsa with all those calls. I would we were talking
Speaker 1: about this morning, we've done the Todd Wright theory and
Speaker 1: pulled him off the field, the the h the Philadelphia
Speaker 1: touchdown that was not reversed. When all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: we looked up in Jalen Hurts was running a two
Speaker 1: point conversion. Uh. The Bears being given forward progress on
Speaker 1: what ended up being a game tying drive when there
Speaker 1: was no whistleblown, and the rest were like, oh, yeah, well,
Speaker 1: I know the fumble happened, but let's just give him
Speaker 1: forward progress. Uh. Russell Wilson fake sliding and then inducing
Speaker 1: a flag and then four different things at the end
Speaker 1: of that Tampa game. I'm sorry, go ahead, but this
Speaker 1: Dallas team, I mean this this team, and nobody believed
Speaker 1: at the beginning that they were the worst team in football,
Speaker 1: right that the public would not allow the number to
Speaker 1: get high enough and still made him favorite on Monday
Speaker 1: Night against Arizona. Okay, that was when they still had
Speaker 1: Dac and Dalton and now they have nothing. And now
Speaker 1: they have I don't know who they'll play at quarterback.
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy doesn't want you to know till the game time.
Speaker 1: If it's Cooper Rusher, Garrett Gilbert. I mean, it's just unbelievable.
Speaker 1: And the defense only Philadelphia could not perform because you know,
Speaker 1: teach me how to Doug. You won't run the foot,
Speaker 1: all right, he's insisted. He insists, to drop back and
Speaker 1: throw the football sixty times again. All you have to
Speaker 1: do is run the ball against Dallas. They cannot stop
Speaker 1: the run. I'm gonna lay thirteen and a half with Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: I don't know that Dallas. I don't know that Dallas
Speaker 1: is gonna score. Will you late fourteen? I don't know.
Speaker 1: I'd like thirteen and a half, Todd. It's not even close, Mike.
Speaker 1: I see a lot of thirteen and a half. I
Speaker 1: got four. I got fourteen across the board. It's across
Speaker 1: the board, fourteen, Mikey. You come on here, a giant
Speaker 1: corporation looking right here at the top sports book in
Speaker 1: the world's number. Look at the number. Look at the number.
Speaker 1: To build the gigantic resort in Las Vegas, one of
Speaker 1: the most gorgeous resorts of all time. The least you
Speaker 1: can do is know what the widespread number is going.
Speaker 1: I can't. I can't delve in those offshore places, and
Speaker 1: you know I can't do that. I only have to
Speaker 1: look at what is a legal line for me to
Speaker 1: bet in the state of Nevada and betted circule. But
Speaker 1: that's a legal line in the state of Nevada. So
Speaker 1: here's what I'll do. I'll lay fourteen with the Steelers.
Speaker 1: I don't care Dallas. This game is. If I had
Speaker 1: to predict the final score in this game, I would
Speaker 1: say thirty eight to six because mccarthyel kick a couple
Speaker 1: of field goals down four touchdowns. Maybe at some point
Speaker 1: this is just I mean, the team is quit, all right,
Speaker 1: everybody's quit on McCarthy. The coaches are unprepared, he brings
Speaker 1: Nolan and I mean, it's just it's it's awful. It's
Speaker 1: awful what's going on in Dallas. And nobody gets that.
Speaker 1: They're worse than Jacksonville. Their worst. They're the worst team.
Speaker 1: We we went through our mid season. Who are best
Speaker 1: five teams? Who are worst five teams? Yesterday on Prime
Speaker 1: Time Action, every one of us had Dallas in the
Speaker 1: bottom five, not even close. Spending new Chie poor guy,
Speaker 1: he he is not an NFL quarterback. That was not fair.
Speaker 1: He wasn't a Division one quarterback. I'm gonna transfer from
Speaker 1: it to James Madison and see how that goes. Uh, Todd,
Speaker 1: your first bet, by the way, our first bet was
Speaker 1: not the same, Todd. My first bet is. You know,
Speaker 1: most of these games are impossible to pick pregame. You know,
Speaker 1: just quick diet tribe. Don't bet pregame, Folks bet in game.
Speaker 1: Y'all know why. I'm not gonna go over a million
Speaker 1: times more times. But okay, Uh, there's one game that
Speaker 1: is leaping off the page to me, leaping off the
Speaker 1: page to me, and that's the Baltimore Ravens. Baby. The
Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens won the football game against my beloved Yenser's
Speaker 1: last week. Now, I know on the final on the
Speaker 1: final score, it showed Pittsburgh Stars more than Baltimore Ravens
Speaker 1: and that, But the bottom line is Distillers were outgained
Speaker 1: by a gazillion and the only reason that they won
Speaker 1: that game is because Lamar gave it to them. Now
Speaker 1: we know Lamar is not great in the big games.
Speaker 1: We know that he's not great in the big games.
Speaker 1: But as Philip Rivers Indie Colts a big game, I
Speaker 1: think not. So now you're gonna tell me I get
Speaker 1: to go. Now, remember another thing, Baltimore's got a nice defense.
Speaker 1: If they can hold the Pittsburgh Steelers down, what they
Speaker 1: can't hold the statue of Philip Rivers down. Plus, I
Speaker 1: get to bed against Philip Rivers, which is the most
Speaker 1: fun feeling in the world. After all the times he
Speaker 1: has so crushingly killed me, so crushingly killed me time
Speaker 1: and time again inside the ten yard line when I
Speaker 1: just need a couple of points fail, I get to
Speaker 1: go against this asshole. So give me the Ravens minus
Speaker 1: to I hate Phil Rover. You can't even say the
Speaker 1: name of the anoj H. This was I was considering
Speaker 1: making this either my number two or my number one pick,
Speaker 1: but since you've gone on it, I'm just gonna make
Speaker 1: it my number one too. It's Baltimore for me as well.
Speaker 1: For all the reasons Todd stated, let me just back
Speaker 1: them up with some numbers. Ravens two hundred sixty five
Speaker 1: yards rushing last week against the Steelers defense. Uh, that
Speaker 1: is the most rushing yards in a loss in Ravens
Speaker 1: franchise history. They had seventy nine total place to the
Speaker 1: Steelers fifty. They outpossessed the Steelers to eight, but they
Speaker 1: were minus three in turnovers. They were nine penalties for
Speaker 1: a hundred ten yards. Basically, it was Alex Highsmith's pick
Speaker 1: six and then another terrible pass from Lamar that was
Speaker 1: picked off. Actually the first one was Robert Splaine on
Speaker 1: the pick six parton me, and then the second one
Speaker 1: was an Alex Highsmith pick which gave them another twenty
Speaker 1: one yard short field. So really the defense staked the
Speaker 1: Steelers fourteen points. That's why they were able to win
Speaker 1: in the end. But even then, Baltimore had a chance
Speaker 1: to win. At the end of that football game, Um
Speaker 1: They're the better team by far. This number has come down,
Speaker 1: and I can't believe that. I'm all over Baltimore, who
Speaker 1: again didn't doing our top five and bottom five yesterday.
Speaker 1: Baltimore is in the top five best teams in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I'm with you on that last point. I any chance
Speaker 1: I get to bet against Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers, after
Speaker 1: all the harm he's done us in the past, it's
Speaker 1: a comfortable position to be in Baltimore my first bet too.
Speaker 1: You know the stats in that game where ludicrous seventy
Speaker 1: five plays to fifty thirty six minutes to twenty four,
Speaker 1: you know. And I had a great debate on the
Speaker 1: Lambar party line with with Todd's good friend Michael Lombardi.
Speaker 1: What's the first time it's happened since Matt Humans left
Speaker 1: the show and Patrick maher came on. Usually everything is acquiesced.
Speaker 1: But his top play was Pittsburgh last week. My top
Speaker 1: play was Baltimore, and our whole theory of the game
Speaker 1: was I thought Baltimore could rush the ball effectively, and
Speaker 1: he thought the Steelers would force him to get behind
Speaker 1: the chains and Lamar would have to be a drop
Speaker 1: back pass her. I said you had a wrong reason, winner, Michael,
Speaker 1: you were right. Pittsburgh did not force him. Greg Roman
Speaker 1: forced him to become a drop back passer. You know
Speaker 1: Greg Roman from Ventnor, New Jersey. He might he might
Speaker 1: be back at a Holy Spirit up seeking soon if
Speaker 1: he doesn't understand he needs to run the ball and
Speaker 1: stop having Lamar Jackson passed from deep in his own territory.
Speaker 1: I didn't understand. Ludicrous, uh the only but a quick question,
Speaker 1: please please, of course you know how Mike Mike does
Speaker 1: his ow. Can I ask the guests a question thing?
Speaker 1: I would like to do that right now. This is
Speaker 1: a serious question because it seems like you're very math,
Speaker 1: medical and model based. How do you I feel like
Speaker 1: in the in the in football, there's more crap numbers
Speaker 1: in there because so much of the game has to
Speaker 1: do with what's the score of the game, what time
Speaker 1: of the game. You know, in the late third quarters,
Speaker 1: good teams that are up a lot are not really
Speaker 1: trying the same way, and that leads to filthy numbers
Speaker 1: as opposed to in other sports. There's filthy numbers, but
Speaker 1: they're not as bad because in baseball people are still
Speaker 1: trying to get a hit. In the ninth thingning, you
Speaker 1: know what I mean, Whereas in football so much a
Speaker 1: situational how do you clean up the debris so to speak?
Speaker 1: Excellent question? Yeah, I mean in some stimes, I don't.
Speaker 1: I mean with NFL, the scores are so tight that
Speaker 1: that I usually assume that, Like I use all the
Speaker 1: data and and so you know, one of the things
Speaker 1: that I've started using is success rate, which, um, you know,
Speaker 1: plays a success if you get half of the yards
Speaker 1: on first down on second and all on third and
Speaker 1: fourth down. So metrics like that are supposed to account
Speaker 1: for the situation in which ways, like you know, yours
Speaker 1: for play doesn't necessarily do that. Um. Yes, So contact
Speaker 1: is really important in football, and I completely agree with that. Um,
Speaker 1: you know I would say that. I mean, of course
Speaker 1: I trust my numbers, but I I will always um
Speaker 1: add the the element of watching football games to to
Speaker 1: adjust for those types of things. And um yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean I try to combine both of those when I'm
Speaker 1: I'm making my bets. You know, our friend Bob stole
Speaker 1: ed you know what he used to answer to that question.
Speaker 1: He would manually go back and just erase certain parts
Speaker 1: of games, tip typically the very end right with the
Speaker 1: reneal downs. That's the most dark example, but just you know,
Speaker 1: drives that were meaningless and not as part, as you say, Todd,
Speaker 1: of the actual game script of winning it right when
Speaker 1: that was beyond that portion of the game. So he
Speaker 1: would actually have to go back and manually raise because
Speaker 1: he felt that that would pollute his data otherwise if
Speaker 1: he didn't do that. So I think that's the answer
Speaker 1: to your question. By the way, Tennis is rife with
Speaker 1: that stuff, right, because if I'm up on you, Todd,
Speaker 1: two sets to one. You remember those days if I'm
Speaker 1: up on you two sets to one, were you ever
Speaker 1: getting them? Joking? It's a joke, Todd. If if a
Speaker 1: tennis player is up on another tennis player two sets
Speaker 1: to one in a five setter, right, but then the
Speaker 1: person who the player who's down two sets to one
Speaker 1: is up a break. The person up two to one
Speaker 1: oftentimes will just take the rest of the set off.
Speaker 1: And so that's kind of like the tennis equivalent. It's
Speaker 1: it's yea to conserve energy for the fifth Set's correct?
Speaker 1: That's interesting. Yeah, So it's very difficult to sort of
Speaker 1: weed out that versus someone actually tanking. That sort of thing.
Speaker 1: But did you notice what Ed said? Ed's said the
Speaker 1: goo losh model is the way to do. You have
Speaker 1: to have a watching of football games to know what
Speaker 1: stats are important, numbers wise, and which you're not so
Speaker 1: all of you, you know, nerd crunchers who just think
Speaker 1: numbers are the only thing, and you can't. You know,
Speaker 1: you have to go to Circle and watch all the games.
Speaker 1: You have to go to Circer. Now, is there smoking
Speaker 1: at Circle mic because I can't handle smoke, in which
Speaker 1: case I'm gonna need to go to stadium swim outdoors
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna need a free pass because of all
Speaker 1: the popcorn I bought you at the South Point. Please
Speaker 1: publicly say that I will get a free pass to
Speaker 1: stadium swim whenever I ever get back to Vegas. Pod
Speaker 1: you will get a free pass to stadium swim if
Speaker 1: you ever get back to Vegas. There is smoking aloud,
Speaker 1: although with the mask rules you can smoke. You can
Speaker 1: take a puff, but then you must put the mass
Speaker 1: back up it. You have to be actively smoking. You
Speaker 1: don't get you just take your mask down because you
Speaker 1: have a cigarette sitting there in the ashtray. Okay, so
Speaker 1: we enforced that. So it's a little bit of a
Speaker 1: deterrent to smoking that in the tier that it puts
Speaker 1: in your lungs. By the way, Ed did not actually
Speaker 1: use the words coolash model. Just want to point that.
Speaker 1: But but Gil, it's kind of what he said. Carefully.
Speaker 1: I want to say one other things. Stanford took a
Speaker 1: big hit with me in the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: I used to really be impressed with people from Stanford,
Speaker 1: but um, Ed, we have a friend who's from Stanford
Speaker 1: who's not that intelligence. Sometimes he's actually an intelligent guy,
Speaker 1: but he says some things that are just ridiculous and
Speaker 1: so but I just had that's an inside joke with
Speaker 1: me and Gil head is nothing to do with you. Sorry. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean a Stanford degree is like you know, like
Speaker 1: like like a fruit being called organic. Right, It's nice
Speaker 1: to have the label, but it doesn't guarantee the quality inside.
Speaker 1: Ed pick number two, alright, So pick number two. I
Speaker 1: am going with the Houston Texans against uh, the Houston
Speaker 1: Texas against the Jacksonville Jaguars. So I bet this a
Speaker 1: minus six and a half. Um. The thinking here is
Speaker 1: that I love Deshaun Watson. I was on my my
Speaker 1: other podcast and and our guests described as Shaun Watson
Speaker 1: as the most underrated as an underrated quarterback, which I
Speaker 1: I find interesting. I mean, I don't know how you
Speaker 1: can watch that guy play with the talent he has
Speaker 1: and will Fuller and possibly think he's underrated. Obviously, there's
Speaker 1: circumstances with how they have not had success on the
Speaker 1: football field. Part of that as a schedule. Part of
Speaker 1: that is that the defense is awful. But in general
Speaker 1: I like betting on Deshaun Watson because he's an incredible quarterback.
Speaker 1: The other thing that's going on with this game is
Speaker 1: that Gardner Minshew is not playing football for for the
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars. Um they they weren't particularly good under Minshew.
Speaker 1: So they're actually twenty six when I look at my
Speaker 1: adjusted passing success rate, so so not good. But I
Speaker 1: do expect to drop off when they go to a
Speaker 1: six round draft pick in rookie Jake Jake Lutton. Lutton
Speaker 1: am I saying that Luton? Oh? I remember him? Go ahead?
Speaker 1: So so anyways, I mean I do like this game
Speaker 1: because of the quarterback back matchup. I think you're taking
Speaker 1: a top five quarterback in the NFL with a guy
Speaker 1: who has never done it in an NFL game yet, Um,
Speaker 1: I think Houston is hungry for some wins because they
Speaker 1: don't have that many of them this year. And you
Speaker 1: know Houston's defense is bad, right, I mean, you know
Speaker 1: when I look at past defense in terms of my
Speaker 1: adjusted passing success right there. Um, And it might be
Speaker 1: without their best cornerback in Bradley Roby. But uh, I
Speaker 1: like to Shawn Watson, I like Houston. Uh, And I
Speaker 1: will lay the points here. But way, Houston spank Jacksonville
Speaker 1: in that early game and Jacksonville did not move the
Speaker 1: ball on them with Minshoe, So I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I think I think it could be a big spank
Speaker 1: down Houston against them. Here's the thing. Houston is a
Speaker 1: potential survivor pick because of the quarter but not not
Speaker 1: necessarily because of the quarterback change. But certainly doesn't dissuade
Speaker 1: one with the quarterback change. If anything, it's a it's
Speaker 1: a check in the positive mark positive column. But first
Speaker 1: of all, the Thanksgiving implications because Houston's and Thanksgiving team.
Speaker 1: I just the self loathing that would go on if
Speaker 1: I picked Houston and lost on Houston would be off
Speaker 1: the charts. I would just hate myself to lose on
Speaker 1: that team. But I totally or everything you're saying. Um, Mikey,
Speaker 1: who's conducting business. You're the busiest dude ever Right now,
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm gonna go against Anthony Lynn and
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Raiders. The Raiders, I was impressed.
Speaker 1: I thought they played a complete game in all facets
Speaker 1: for the first time last week at Cleveland and is
Speaker 1: I don't know what the psyche can be with the
Speaker 1: Chargers after they've blown leads of eleven, seventeen, seventeen, sixteen,
Speaker 1: and now twenty one. I mean this was the the
Speaker 1: icing on the cake last week. I mean they're up
Speaker 1: three touchdowns and Drew Lock can't even get a pass off.
Speaker 1: I mean they're sacking him every other play. They were
Speaker 1: booing him at Mile High and they somehow lose that game. Um,
Speaker 1: have blown four leads of sixteen plus this year. What's
Speaker 1: the scenario that they can win and they have to
Speaker 1: they have to come from way behind. I mean, if
Speaker 1: that's that's that's where they get. Okay. I'm I'm happy
Speaker 1: with the Raiders being up a couple of scores. I
Speaker 1: just I don't know whether they can go with this
Speaker 1: guy Lynn, I mean, he's a nice man, done a
Speaker 1: lot of charity where he should be coaching the unit
Speaker 1: set football team, not not in the NFL. I in
Speaker 1: game undered the hell out of that game, though it
Speaker 1: was it was the whole week was about weather in
Speaker 1: five cities in the NFL, uh potentially being really a
Speaker 1: factor Green Bay, Cleveland, Buffalo sincident in Chicago. I missed
Speaker 1: the initial number chance the middle, so I decided I'm
Speaker 1: gonna watch the actual game and see where it really
Speaker 1: is affecting affecting play. And when that field goal in
Speaker 1: that game was going dead's down the center and then
Speaker 1: took a hard left, I was like, that's the game.
Speaker 1: So I I in game undered it. I just wanna
Speaker 1: just to be accurate here, know the the Cleveland Raiders
Speaker 1: game forty four, forty four and a half, forty three
Speaker 1: and a half, forty one and a half, thirty nine
Speaker 1: and a half, and thirty seven. I got it at
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half and thirty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Those were the two bets I mean, And that was
Speaker 1: it was a little bit after I didn't know about it.
Speaker 1: I was sitting at stadium swim with Mitch and Paul
Speaker 1: text me and said, did you see the Brown's first
Speaker 1: field goal? And I said no. He said, it was
Speaker 1: both wide right and right wide left in the same kick.
Speaker 1: It was right down the middle. It was right down
Speaker 1: the middle and wide left. That's a great call by him. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And so I wasn't really paying attention to the game,
Speaker 1: and so I said, so then then then I had
Speaker 1: a couple of games. That was the only way to
Speaker 1: play the weather, I thought. Um, speaking of which, did
Speaker 1: you guys see the field goal from like a million
Speaker 1: yards that has Sham had to make go in against me?
Speaker 1: The guy who at the line drive field goal that
Speaker 1: was like literally four ft off the ground at the
Speaker 1: end of the half. Only that could only happen to me.
Speaker 1: I still and watching it. I wasn't sure it even
Speaker 1: went in, you know, because it just duck tailed. It
Speaker 1: was so low. I didn't have any idea. And then
Speaker 1: the officials looked at each other. So I think that
Speaker 1: went in, didn't Um? Alright, Todd? Number two? Okay, my
Speaker 1: number two is gonna be the under under the total
Speaker 1: in the Miami Dolphin in Arizona Cardinals game. And that
Speaker 1: is what number do you have forty eight and a half. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you missed the hit it. By the way, I'll get
Speaker 1: to Miami, Dolph for I have forty eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Look again, Gilly, it's forty eight and a half. One
Speaker 1: of the things you need to know to a can't
Speaker 1: run this offense. You better get Mr Fitzpatrick back because
Speaker 1: Miami can go to the playoffs. What are you doing, Miami? Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the under in this football game. And
Speaker 1: here's why Miami. Miami cannot move the football. Did you
Speaker 1: watch the game last week against the Rams. They scored
Speaker 1: all them points because Jared A hundred and fourteen million
Speaker 1: dollar golf gave them eighteen hundred turnovers. And every five
Speaker 1: seconds I turned around and and Miami's defense is running
Speaker 1: the other way with another interception, touchdown or a fine
Speaker 1: with darn touchdown or a fumble. It was unbelievable. Ta
Speaker 1: is not ready Okay now, Matt maybe two will be
Speaker 1: the next Jesus Joe Burrow. Maybe maybe it's possible. I
Speaker 1: didn't see it last week. I don't know if you
Speaker 1: guys saw it, but I didn't see anything from Tuah
Speaker 1: that made me think he was even better than fits
Speaker 1: right now. So to me, how's Miami gonna be moving
Speaker 1: the football up and down the field. They'll probably get
Speaker 1: some points, but forty eight and a half connotes a
Speaker 1: decent sized total. Conversely, their defense is fantastic. Their defense
Speaker 1: is all over. Mr Jared Goff. He was averaging four
Speaker 1: point four yards of play at halftime. I love looking
Speaker 1: at the yards per play at halftime. They could not
Speaker 1: move the ball against Miami, you know, very consistently. Miami's
Speaker 1: defense is pretty good, folks. I know it's hard for
Speaker 1: me to I love that coach that Miami coaches really
Speaker 1: really good. He's got that team playing a tight brand
Speaker 1: of football. Now they're gonna blow it because they have
Speaker 1: to give the money. They have to give the playing
Speaker 1: time to Tuah. You know, to Ah, he's the great,
Speaker 1: He's Jesus. You gotta get too on the field. You
Speaker 1: know what, Miami could be a playoff team, folks, if
Speaker 1: they would just let Fitzpatrick stay on the football field.
Speaker 1: But okay, that being said, let's take the under. Miami
Speaker 1: is gonna keep their scoring down. Miami's defense is gonna
Speaker 1: keep the other team scoring down. Give me the under
Speaker 1: forty eight and a half, am I wrong you are
Speaker 1: because it's forty eight look all olf, but okay, um,
Speaker 1: by the way, UH, don't sell Jared golf short. It's
Speaker 1: a hundred twenty eight million dollars, one fourteen of which
Speaker 1: is guaranteed. Uh and the only three pre flop bets
Speaker 1: I made this. I made the season Patriots under nine
Speaker 1: and a half because of all the opt outs, Dolphins
Speaker 1: over six Dolphins to win the division at plus eleven fifty.
Speaker 1: Everything is live. But you're right. It worries me. That's two.
Speaker 1: Now your numbers coming down? I mean you've got a
Speaker 1: good number, because what is now six dollars? Six dollars? Uh.
Speaker 1: That Miami Arizona box score. Though we thought Baltimore and
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh was a weird box score, this Miami Arizona box
Speaker 1: score from last week was maybe the oddest box score
Speaker 1: you'll ever see in your life. Um on Arizona, say Miami,
Speaker 1: Miami Rams. Oh, Miami Rams for last week. I'm sorry
Speaker 1: they playing Fami Arizona this week? Right, Miami Rams, Miami
Speaker 1: excuse me? The Rams thirty one first downs the Dolphins
Speaker 1: eight uh four seventy one yards total offense for the Rams,
Speaker 1: one five for the Dolphins nine two plays for the
Speaker 1: Rams forty eight. There's that forty for the Dolphins, thirty
Speaker 1: thirty one in time of possession, basically two short fields
Speaker 1: uh for the Dolphins thirty three yards in one yard
Speaker 1: Christian Wilkins interception, Kyle van Noy fumble return, one strip,
Speaker 1: sack return for a touchdown, Emmanuel Agua with the sack
Speaker 1: Andrew Van Ginkle to the house, and then a punt
Speaker 1: return for a touchdown j King Grant eighty eight yards.
Speaker 1: The flip side of that is you could argue, based
Speaker 1: on game script, Miami didn't have to do anything after that, right,
Speaker 1: But we'll see miss the field goal that cost me
Speaker 1: plus nine and a half. How I lost plus nine
Speaker 1: and a half in game on the Rams on that
Speaker 1: game is only Hashem in Miami. They miss a field
Speaker 1: goal down eleven to cut it to eight. It was unbelievable.
Speaker 1: But then ways that being said, ed, what do you
Speaker 1: think about to come on seriously, Well, I don't know,
Speaker 1: I don't. I mean, yeah, he didn't exactly have the
Speaker 1: greatest performance in that game. Um, from what I've seen
Speaker 1: in college, Yeah, I mean, I think he's got all
Speaker 1: the potential in the world to be great. I mean,
Speaker 1: does he have the talent around into Miami. I don't know.
Speaker 1: We'll see, but we don't know yet. In any Alabama
Speaker 1: quarterback that comes to the pros has a downgrade in
Speaker 1: his receiving corps. Right, guys that Mac Jones is thrown to.
Speaker 1: This year, Jones has been great and I think he's
Speaker 1: going to be a first round pick in this next draft.
Speaker 1: But yeah, he's got two first rounders that he's thrown too.
Speaker 1: And it's and it's kind of it's kind of incredible.
Speaker 1: And that's without Jay Little Waddle exactly. Well, I mean,
Speaker 1: shouldn't run through the end. Yeah, yes, I'm not saying
Speaker 1: two is gonna be bad. I'm just saying you haven't
Speaker 1: proven anything yet. And don't give me. They won the
Speaker 1: football game, but he didn't do anything. Okay, play one game,
Speaker 1: all right? One game? Yeah? Nick, Nick Saban, that just
Speaker 1: couldn't keep his mouth shut. Well he shouldn't, you know,
Speaker 1: that's tough. He shouldn't take that ball out of it.
Speaker 1: That's what happens when you take the ball on the
Speaker 1: back and shut up, Nick, Just it's poor kids injured
Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. Shut up, Nick Saban.
Speaker 1: Couldn't help himself. My number two pick. By the way,
Speaker 1: Hasham and I have to explain this to the guest
Speaker 1: every week, is Orthodox jew for God. I just want
Speaker 1: to point that out, alright. And what I'm basically saying
Speaker 1: is God will always kill me with field goal kickers,
Speaker 1: whether in college, whether in pros. If I need him
Speaker 1: to make it, they will always miss it. If I
Speaker 1: need him to miss it, they will always make it.
Speaker 1: This can only be experienced either in quantum physics by
Speaker 1: Schrodinger chat or it's Hashem. It's the Hashem factor. A
Speaker 1: Jem hates me alright because we're behind schedule, We're behind
Speaker 1: the chains here. We'll move on pick number two. I
Speaker 1: am on the Washington football team, giving two and a
Speaker 1: half against the New York Giants. I actually think Washington
Speaker 1: is live to win the NFC East, which is almost
Speaker 1: impossible to say. Uh. The Eagles lead that division three
Speaker 1: four and one. But by the way, I think the
Speaker 1: Eagles are horrific. But I like Washington with their front seven,
Speaker 1: solid front seven. They should have beaten the Giants the
Speaker 1: first time they played. There was a bad turnover from
Speaker 1: Kyle Allen late in that game that put the Giants up,
Speaker 1: and still Washington had a chance to win it, but
Speaker 1: Riverboat Roun decided to uh, you know, said to himself,
Speaker 1: oh my nicknames riverboat run, I better go for two here.
Speaker 1: Uh they shouldn't have. If they didn't get it, they
Speaker 1: lose to the Giants. Uh two and a half. I'm
Speaker 1: surprised this is lower than three. I guess three and
Speaker 1: a half or four on guessing lines this week. I
Speaker 1: really like Washington to the point that I'm almost considering
Speaker 1: them as a sneaky I don't know what I'm doing
Speaker 1: in Survivor. Let me just say that right now. I
Speaker 1: have no idea what I'm picking in Survivor yet this week.
Speaker 1: But Washington's actually in consideration, even though they too play
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. So for me, it's washing. And this is
Speaker 1: the last thing about this, a very tricky thing the
Speaker 1: NFL schedulers did here to the Giants. The Giants aren't
Speaker 1: a short week and Washington is off a bye, so
Speaker 1: it's one of these situations where the Giants just get
Speaker 1: royally hosed from a scheduling standpoint. So Washington for me
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. You know that came into
Speaker 1: effect in the playoffs last year when Minnesota went and
Speaker 1: beat New Orleans in the first round in the wild
Speaker 1: card game on a Sunday and then had to come
Speaker 1: back and play at San Francisco Saturday. They had a
Speaker 1: short week verst a bye weekend. Everybody loved that spot
Speaker 1: and and the Niners killed him that they weren't a
Speaker 1: better team. But it's you're right, It very rarely happens
Speaker 1: that kind of a scheduling spot. That's very good memory
Speaker 1: on that stuff. Okay, ed number three, number three, Let's
Speaker 1: go to uh, Pittsburgh and Dallas and Uh, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the under in this game. I think
Speaker 1: we've already discussed about how Dallas is not going to
Speaker 1: score a lot of points against one of the best
Speaker 1: defenses um in the NFL, and I completely agree with that,
Speaker 1: but let's let's actually talk about the other side. So
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's offense um doesn't look particularly good by my numbers.
Speaker 1: So when we look at success rate and adjust for
Speaker 1: who you play, they're actually in the NFL, and Dallas's
Speaker 1: defense rates out pretty well. I know that's hard to see,
Speaker 1: but I think there's all it's not gonna show up
Speaker 1: in other metrics, but their eleventh when I look at
Speaker 1: adjusted success rate. Obviously Pittsburgh's gonna score points if turns
Speaker 1: the ball over to him a lot of times. Um.
Speaker 1: You know Lamar gifted them that pick six last week. Um,
Speaker 1: but this is an ugly game that it's really hard. Uh.
Speaker 1: It's really hard for me as the numbers guy, to
Speaker 1: to use my numbers in this. So I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: go with with um the fact that I just don't
Speaker 1: see a lot of points in this game. I think
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has scored a lot of points, but the underlying
Speaker 1: metrics are not good for them. I don't think Dallas
Speaker 1: is gonna score I can see this. I can see
Speaker 1: a lot not a lot of points happening in the
Speaker 1: second half is when Pittsburgh's up like fourteen nothing uh
Speaker 1: at halftime, So give me under forty one. I think
Speaker 1: it's forty one and a half. That's what I'm seeing,
Speaker 1: or at least about an hour ago when I looked. Uh, Actually,
Speaker 1: I see as many forty two and a half as
Speaker 1: I do forty one and a half, and barely any
Speaker 1: forty twos. What do you see, Todd? I see a
Speaker 1: lot of forty one and a half, but if you
Speaker 1: want to give and then I think there's more forty
Speaker 1: one and a half though, Yeah, well whatever whatever you
Speaker 1: want to give me. I mean, I see this as
Speaker 1: a very low scoring game. Um. And I think Pittsburgh's
Speaker 1: defense is awesome, but I think they may be a
Speaker 1: little bit overrated as a Super Bowl contender because of
Speaker 1: the underlying metrics on offense. Um. Okay, I see forty
Speaker 1: one and a half across the board. I was actually
Speaker 1: looking at the wrong game. Forty one and a half
Speaker 1: across the board. Dang yeah, sorry about yeah, I was
Speaker 1: looking at the Monday night gave my mad um mikey
Speaker 1: number three. I always try to come up with an over,
Speaker 1: um because I just think that we still have caught
Speaker 1: up with the trend with without crowd noise, without offensive
Speaker 1: holding calls. I think these games still lean so far
Speaker 1: far over. Um. I'm very tempted on this Titans game
Speaker 1: to go over. I just I'm not a huge believer
Speaker 1: in the Titans defense, but the Bears defense is pretty
Speaker 1: pretty good. I don't know a study, Yeah, go ahead, yeah,
Speaker 1: go ahead. That awayhead Todd just to help Mike out
Speaker 1: give him had a tough week this week. There's been
Speaker 1: a lot on his play. I would like to take
Speaker 1: it over. I agree with Mike everything Mikey just said,
Speaker 1: and I would like to take this year's Tampa Bay Bucks.
Speaker 1: If you guys remember from last year, I was on
Speaker 1: the over every single week with the Tampa Bay Bucks
Speaker 1: because they will couldn't stop anyone, and they could score,
Speaker 1: and Jamis gave you some extra bonus up pick sixes
Speaker 1: as well. This year, my really nice over team, a
Speaker 1: team that can never stop anyone and cannot be stopped themselves,
Speaker 1: are the Russell Wilson led Seattle Seahawks. If you've noticed,
Speaker 1: they are five and two to the over this year,
Speaker 1: and the two games that didn't go over missed it
Speaker 1: by a point twenty seven to twenty six in the
Speaker 1: Minnesota game under fifty four by a point, and thirty
Speaker 1: four twenty three in the Miami game under fifty five
Speaker 1: by a point. Every other game has been over, and
Speaker 1: these are going over in fifty games line fifty five,
Speaker 1: fifty seven, fifty five, fifty four, crazy asked numbers, and
Speaker 1: they still go over. Why do they go over? Because
Speaker 1: DK metcalf is a based Russell Wilson is a beast.
Speaker 1: You cannot stop these people. These people will score on
Speaker 1: you from now until whenever two thousand twenty four til
Speaker 1: next elector. I don't know. You cannot stop this football team. Conversely,
Speaker 1: they can't stop anybody else. I don't know, if you watch.
Speaker 1: I mean, they were pretty good, you know, while the
Speaker 1: game was still in hand against San Francisco. But once
Speaker 1: they got ahead by enough, they just stopped playing defense
Speaker 1: as well, and they gave Nick Mullins or whoever that
Speaker 1: was touchdowns at the end. Buffalo can move the football, folks.
Speaker 1: Buffalo is not a terrible offensive team. I would put them,
Speaker 1: I don't know, percentile to the top as far as
Speaker 1: offense goes. I think Buffalo can move the football, and
Speaker 1: against the paltry Seattle defense, they will move the football
Speaker 1: and they will not stop Seattle. No one stops Seattle.
Speaker 1: One other thing, I checked the weather. It's gonna be
Speaker 1: mild and Buffalo about six and slightly sunny. Now whether
Speaker 1: they will be wind or not, check your local listings.
Speaker 1: But I still do think it will be very difficult
Speaker 1: for this football game to stay under because both teams
Speaker 1: are going to score the football. And by the way,
Speaker 1: did I say DK metcalf is a beast. That guy
Speaker 1: is incredible. I mean, that guy is unbelievable. There was
Speaker 1: somebody who's asking, would you rather be run over by
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry or be chased from behind? Chased down from
Speaker 1: behind by DK Metcalf? What would you rather? I'd rather
Speaker 1: be chased down by came Metcalf. What I mean? I
Speaker 1: don't know. I'd be worried that I'd get tangled and
Speaker 1: have another leg injury. So I'd rather just get That's
Speaker 1: like two fifty pounds of Derrick Henry going right into you.
Speaker 1: But you know what, I'll live to tell the tale.
Speaker 1: The other one, man, I'm staid. Anyways, what's my number
Speaker 1: on this Seattle? I'm going with you're over fifty five.
Speaker 1: Over fifty five. That's the highest total on the board
Speaker 1: this weekend in the NFL. Alright, Mike's let's go to
Speaker 1: the Dome game in Atlanta Bronco's Falcons. What do you
Speaker 1: got forty nine and a half or fifty fifty fifty?
Speaker 1: I'll go over fifty there. Uh. You know the Denver
Speaker 1: defense when it plays a quarterback that can throw the
Speaker 1: ball forward other than Cam Newton, um I thought Fangio's
Speaker 1: defense would be better this year. They're not great. Um,
Speaker 1: you know twenty seven by the Chargers through uh through
Speaker 1: really through two and a half quarters and then of
Speaker 1: course Lynne stops playing. Uh, and you know Atlanta is
Speaker 1: going to put points on the board and give them up.
Speaker 1: So that's my play, all right? You are you concerned?
Speaker 1: It all by the fact I have noticed a surprising
Speaker 1: trend to Atlanta starting to actually play a little defense
Speaker 1: for a change. Well, when you get Raheem Morris, Uh
Speaker 1: that it also happened last year too when he got
Speaker 1: promoted from when he got promoted from UM defensive backs
Speaker 1: coach to coordinator and now to the head position. They
Speaker 1: have a little bit more you know, of a focus
Speaker 1: each time he gets more responsibility on the team. So yeah,
Speaker 1: it's true. But they also that was a horrific effort
Speaker 1: against but the Carolina the Carolina game, that was just
Speaker 1: I mean, Matt Rule eliminated himself from Coach of the
Speaker 1: Year consideration in one game. I thought last Thursday, UM,
Speaker 1: I don't listen to the first two picks. I loved
Speaker 1: Baltimore Washington. Uh, it's tough, I'll be honest, coming and
Speaker 1: stepping down from that to three four and five in
Speaker 1: a contest. But three is difficult enough as it is
Speaker 1: right here. But I think I'm going to settle for
Speaker 1: you ready for this the New York Jets. Wow, whoa
Speaker 1: Oneday night, New York Jets? Because it's seven and a hook. Uh.
Speaker 1: There is no other rhymor there. There's no rhymor reason
Speaker 1: to this other than I believe this is the one
Speaker 1: of two, the other one being Week seventeen, when it
Speaker 1: could get squirrely and the Patriots have nothing to play
Speaker 1: for against the Jets. I think this is one of
Speaker 1: two games the Jets have a legit shot of winning
Speaker 1: this year, and this is the quintessential Monday night standalone
Speaker 1: game where those guys are like, you know what, We're
Speaker 1: on national TV. This is our shot in the spotlight.
Speaker 1: Let's play some football. And I think New England now
Speaker 1: I realized they didn't have Edelman and Harry last week,
Speaker 1: and that was obviously a huge downgrade for those guys.
Speaker 1: Um checking on their status right now, I think they
Speaker 1: are both playing Either way, I do not have any
Speaker 1: confidence in Cam Newton being able to to actually get
Speaker 1: this done. They'll win, I think in the end, the Patriots.
Speaker 1: But seven and a half on the road on a
Speaker 1: Monday night. It's Belichick versus Gaze everybody, and I'm taking
Speaker 1: Gaze with the points silence on the set. I mean,
Speaker 1: you could cover seven nothing final seven nothing final? You cover?
Speaker 1: I don't know. To me, I don't like, I don't
Speaker 1: love anything else. That's the one that I point to
Speaker 1: where I can actually come up with the you know,
Speaker 1: the reasoning. Again, I just think that that's the night
Speaker 1: where these guys shine for the New York Jets. And
Speaker 1: I'm not saying they're winning. But if you give me
Speaker 1: seven in the hook, which is what it is, I'm
Speaker 1: all about it. That's my number three pick. I know
Speaker 1: I might be sacrificing a pick, but that's the one
Speaker 1: I like best. All Right, this is the Survivor time.
Speaker 1: I'm the only one left here. No first teasers, guid teasers,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, teasers. We're all six and two. Ed. If
Speaker 1: you had a two leg six point teaser of the week,
Speaker 1: what would it be? Yeah, So, I mean I'll tease
Speaker 1: Baltimore against Indie taking those points, and then I'll add
Speaker 1: that New Orleans game that I talked in earlier. I'll
Speaker 1: take New Orleans. So um, I agree, I think Baltimore
Speaker 1: is a little undervalue here. I agree with what you
Speaker 1: guys said earlier. I'm a little concerned about the Ronnie
Speaker 1: Stanley injury. Um. And then I talked about the New
Speaker 1: Orleans game earlier. So that'll be my two game teaser Baltimore,
Speaker 1: New Orleans. What does what does Baltimore become Baltimore? No? No, no,
Speaker 1: the other through the zero and Ed doesn't care about
Speaker 1: teasing through the zero you did last week. No, I
Speaker 1: didn't tease the zero. I thought you did in life.
Speaker 1: In life. I thought I heard that you said you've
Speaker 1: teased through the zero and the Saints in real life.
Speaker 1: In real life. Yeah, that's what I mean in real life.
Speaker 1: That's correct. I did, and it worked out. It's going
Speaker 1: to Ed's going to Baltimore plus four in New Orleans
Speaker 1: plus ten. Yeah. It wasn't my pick though, but yes
Speaker 1: I did. Alright, So Baltimore and New Orleans for young
Speaker 1: Ed Fang Mikey. I'm gonna take the Chiefs down, uh
Speaker 1: to four and a half? Is that? What is it?
Speaker 1: Ten and a half? Four and a half. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take the Chiefs down, and I'm gonna tease the Razors
Speaker 1: Raiders up to plus six. I thought we were gonna
Speaker 1: have the same one. Okay, Raiders and Chiefs or Mike Todd.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the green Bay Packers to beat the
Speaker 1: San Francisco whoever is playing, Bobby Bethard or whoever's grandson
Speaker 1: is playing. I don't know who's playing, but I'm gonna
Speaker 1: to take green Bay. Just give me the win, green Bay,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna go with Ed's Houston team to win.
Speaker 1: And I think I have to lay in Houston because
Speaker 1: Ed was laying what was Ed laying on that game?
Speaker 1: Six and a half? Right? I take Houston down to
Speaker 1: point five. Houston just has to win me the football game.
Speaker 1: Green Bay just has to win me the football game
Speaker 1: by more than point five of a point, which I
Speaker 1: think is possible. And that's what I'll take Green Bay.
Speaker 1: I'm taking one of years and one of yours green
Speaker 1: Bay in Kansas City for me, green Bay kadsay green
Speaker 1: Bay to essentially win Kansas City down to four and
Speaker 1: a half against Carolina. I don't like the tennant half,
Speaker 1: but I sure like the four and a half. All right,
Speaker 1: A survivor want me to give you the list of
Speaker 1: who you've taken so far. I mean, I remember, but
Speaker 1: if you want to say it just for a public consumption,
Speaker 1: go ahead. If people care. GIL so far has used Tennessee, Cleveland,
Speaker 1: New England, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Miami, Buffalo, and Kansas City
Speaker 1: last week. This is going to be a GIL. I
Speaker 1: don't know, and that's the honest. This is the first
Speaker 1: week where I'm not really sure because there are Thanksgiving
Speaker 1: considerations with the circle rules, and I don't know my
Speaker 1: my I can't you know, I can't use Green Bay.
Speaker 1: I can, but I won't because I have them earmarked
Speaker 1: for a subsequent week. But the choices then for me
Speaker 1: become Washington because I just feel good about them, even
Speaker 1: though that doesn't have anything to do with the spread
Speaker 1: about Pittsburgh could use. I just get through the list
Speaker 1: and then I can tell you all of them. Then
Speaker 1: you can come Washington. Houston is a possibility against Jake
Speaker 1: Luton again and the Jacksonville Jaguy years, but again the
Speaker 1: self loathing if I lose on Houston will be off
Speaker 1: the charts, and I don't want to feel that way
Speaker 1: about myself. UM. Pittsburgh obviously is the is the most
Speaker 1: obvious choice to touchdown favorites against either Cooper Rusher Garrett
Speaker 1: Gilbert of the Cowboys. Pittsburgh has Thanksgiving implications as well,
Speaker 1: because they play on Thanksgiving. Uh, and then uh, I
Speaker 1: think that's Oh, then it's it's I gotta watch for
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford. Is Matthew Stafford going to play or not?
Speaker 1: The thing is the deadline of Survivor maybe before I
Speaker 1: have that information, but Minnesota might be. If I knew
Speaker 1: Stafford wasn't playing, I might take the Vikings. So the
Speaker 1: problem again, the problem with Survivor is Thanksgiving implications. And
Speaker 1: it's so tough to make a map that those of
Speaker 1: us who have played Survivor for years always do map
Speaker 1: out who you're gonna play from week to week because
Speaker 1: there's just COVID considerations, there's all kinds of things going
Speaker 1: on until you have your big chart. Did you make
Speaker 1: the big chart? Not? The first six weeks I didn't.
Speaker 1: But then after the first six weeks I tried. I
Speaker 1: was like, Okay, here's what I'm doing. And then you
Speaker 1: just realized, like I wouldn't have considered Minnesota. I wouldn't
Speaker 1: have considered Houston. Who's playing if Stafford doesn't? Is it Blower,
Speaker 1: Chase Dan Chase, Jase Daniel. I think it's Chase Daniel.
Speaker 1: Different different of course. Alright, final two questions, are we there? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Final two questions? All right? Of the big favorites on
Speaker 1: the board. Wait, so you're not telling us who you're
Speaker 1: taking it. You're just gonna just pass. There's I don't
Speaker 1: I don't know the answer to the quick He'll he'll
Speaker 1: tweet it. He'll tweet it for the followers, for the records,
Speaker 1: he will, he will know. I'm not gonna keep it
Speaker 1: done that before where he wasn't sure on Thursday. Oh wait,
Speaker 1: what happens when I'm like in the if let's say
Speaker 1: I got to the final ten and then everybody else
Speaker 1: knows my pick, Like, you can't do it. No, you
Speaker 1: can't do Yeah, you can tweet it out at three
Speaker 1: o'clock once the picks are all right. Uh, these are
Speaker 1: the big favorites. Who's the most likely to lose outright?
Speaker 1: Green Bay seven point favorites tonight against San Francisco depleted
Speaker 1: Niners team. Um, should I include Tennessee? No, that might
Speaker 1: be too easy. Ten and a half, Kansas City over
Speaker 1: Carolina Houston six and a half or seven point favorites.
Speaker 1: Call it six ahead. Let's call it six and a
Speaker 1: half at Jacksonville and Luton UM Pittsburgh fourteen point favorites
Speaker 1: at Dallas, and then New England seven and a half
Speaker 1: point favorites at the Jets. Who's the mic most likely
Speaker 1: to lose that, right? Ed? Oh, definitely green Bay. I
Speaker 1: mean I can see a scenario where they go into
Speaker 1: this game tonight. H San Francisco's defense has been good
Speaker 1: despite the injuries, and they just kind of crammed the
Speaker 1: ball down Green Bay's throat and Mike Petton doesn't adjust.
Speaker 1: So probably not gonna happen, but I can I can
Speaker 1: definitely see a scenario where that game goes that way. Yeah, great,
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't want to agree with that. I
Speaker 1: think that's why you won't agree, But I don't. I don't.
Speaker 1: I think he's making excellent points, and I actually could see,
Speaker 1: I could, I could envision exactly what he's saying right now,
Speaker 1: because I'm probably gonna play that Packers tease for in
Speaker 1: real life too, So I'm gonna I'm gonna cry and
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be a big baby when it does happen,
Speaker 1: And I hope you're wrong, but I could sort of
Speaker 1: see it. How at the Bears. Can't the Bears beat
Speaker 1: the Titans? Well that way, I didn't include that on
Speaker 1: purpose because I knew every I think everybody would pick that.
Speaker 1: Then maybe I'll say Jets. Maybe I don't know, can
Speaker 1: the Jets win a game? Come on, that's what I'm
Speaker 1: gonna say. I'm gonna say New England, which out goes
Speaker 1: with my plus seven and a half to some degree.
Speaker 1: All right, last question. We live in a bizarro world again.
Speaker 1: Four teams on byes here, the four teams that are
Speaker 1: on the by are pardon me, pardon me. Four teams
Speaker 1: on the bye would be the uh Cleveland Brown, Cincinnati Bengals,
Speaker 1: l A Rams, and Philadelphia Eagles. We're spared from another
Speaker 1: Eagle's tobacle. If you had to pick a side in
Speaker 1: each of these remaining fourteen games, but you've got one
Speaker 1: free passed, what does the game you want no part of?
Speaker 1: On the side you know I'm gonna pass on Pittsburgh Dallas.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a game for the way I
Speaker 1: think about, how to account for whoever the heck Dallas
Speaker 1: is going to put in at the quarterback position. I've
Speaker 1: talked about how I don't necessarily believe with Pittsburgh on
Speaker 1: offense and what Dallas is doing. I think that was
Speaker 1: doing some decent things with the underlying metro on defense.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pass on that game, Mike. You know I
Speaker 1: will pass on the Dolphins Cardinals. We always picked the
Speaker 1: same game, and only because we've the sample size with
Speaker 1: two is so short. I'm not willing to make a
Speaker 1: King David like pronouncement. Is Todd that about his effectiveness
Speaker 1: at this point. So I'm gonna pass on that kid.
Speaker 1: I didn't, Mike. All I said is let's not jump,
Speaker 1: Let's not get excited. This is what I don't like
Speaker 1: when these talking heads anoint people after nothing, you know,
Speaker 1: so let's just relax. Maybe two is going to be
Speaker 1: freaking amazing, but he didn't show it last week. That's
Speaker 1: for god darn sure. And I think that's a sane,
Speaker 1: rational opinion, which you agree with me when I'm giving
Speaker 1: sane rational opinions in the South Point Sports book over
Speaker 1: and over to the dunderheads over there, and you know
Speaker 1: you agree with He's just winding you up, Todd. That's
Speaker 1: what you don't shy Trump voter. That's the shy Trump
Speaker 1: voter that you don't get me started. Don't get me
Speaker 1: started with the shy Trump voter. Uh, that's the same
Speaker 1: game I picked. By the way, Miami Arizona. I could
Speaker 1: see this going if you told me again, if you
Speaker 1: told me after the fact now that Miami won this
Speaker 1: game by double digits, if you told me Arizona did,
Speaker 1: I would be equally unsurprised. Todd, Just so everyone knows,
Speaker 1: I was not making a political statement earlier. I was
Speaker 1: just making a comment about the fact that me and
Speaker 1: Mikey were texting on election night and it looked and
Speaker 1: Trump went from like plus one eighty to all of
Speaker 1: a sudden like minus four hundred or something ridiculous. And
Speaker 1: I just said to Mike, Okay, maybe Trump won, Mikey,
Speaker 1: but I didn't see any news about Michigan or or
Speaker 1: Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. So why is everyone immediately jumping to
Speaker 1: the conclusion that Trump already won. This is just for
Speaker 1: betting purposes. I'm not talking about topical because I could
Speaker 1: go on and on for forever about political dodger speaking
Speaker 1: my language. Uh. Gil did a two hour show on
Speaker 1: this this morning. I did a one hour show on it.
Speaker 1: I did a I did a forty five minute thing
Speaker 1: on it election day, and then a PostScript autopsy on
Speaker 1: it yesterday. But I was in uh. Andrew Gryfe, who
Speaker 1: rights for the l A Times, was kind enough to
Speaker 1: have me in a piece about the election, and I
Speaker 1: said I, and I said it yesterday to you guys
Speaker 1: via text too, Like Mayweather McGregor, I think we will
Speaker 1: look back on this election as one of the big
Speaker 1: betting anomalies of our lifetime because the pre flop numbers
Speaker 1: were what they were, and by the way, unless Biden
Speaker 1: turns Georgia, we're doing this Thursday morning, so we don't
Speaker 1: know yet. Unless he turns Georgia, Arizona was minus one
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen, So let's throw that one out. The
Speaker 1: pre flop state by state numbers and the general election numbers,
Speaker 1: the state by state will have gone forty nine and
Speaker 1: oh favorites and the general election would then fall to
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. But my point was is that the live
Speaker 1: betting of the election was the most irrational market we
Speaker 1: have ever seen. So for those of us who always
Speaker 1: believed in betting markets right, this was a anomaly for
Speaker 1: the ages where people who are supposedly sharp betters and
Speaker 1: the most shart betters in the world bet elections. They
Speaker 1: lost their minds. They lost their minds. It's like they
Speaker 1: bet their heart. And of course, pardon parcel with that
Speaker 1: is they had the muscle memory from sixteen that polluted
Speaker 1: their thinking. So they immediately thought to themselves, wait a minute, Uh,
Speaker 1: here's what happened four years ago. Uh the poll said
Speaker 1: one thing. Florida turned. Oh my god, it's happening all
Speaker 1: over again. Completely different scenario in reality, because then it
Speaker 1: was rational because we only had the polls to to
Speaker 1: tell us otherwise. And Florida and all the Rust Belt
Speaker 1: states turned towards Trump all at the same time. This year, though,
Speaker 1: it's as if my buddy Joe Peter put it this way,
Speaker 1: because he agrees with me entirely. He said, it's as
Speaker 1: if people were lie, I'm betting a a sixty minute
Speaker 1: football game. Um after the game. The game had already
Speaker 1: been played, but they were bet they were live betting it,
Speaker 1: and they were being given five minute chunks, and they
Speaker 1: were betting it one way. Had they rearranged those five
Speaker 1: minutes snippets, the entire betting experience would have been totally different.
Speaker 1: And it also no, no one's and so yesterday. But
Speaker 1: by the way, we have a mutual friend who who
Speaker 1: seems to think he knows everything about such things, and
Speaker 1: he couldn't be more wrong, couldn't be more wrong anyways. No,
Speaker 1: but I just want to say that they didn't It
Speaker 1: was rational. Their craziness was rational because the polls were
Speaker 1: wrong last time and moved it safe from plus four
Speaker 1: to Trump barely winning. This time, the polls wrong again
Speaker 1: the same amount, but it wasn't enough. But no, it's
Speaker 1: irrational in the sense that all the pre flops went
Speaker 1: forty nine and oh and they knew those numbers. And
Speaker 1: that's that's my point. It's like and by the way,
Speaker 1: Rex Buyers, who works at the West Game, he's still
Speaker 1: work there, and I don't know, I don't know. It
Speaker 1: may be different this week. I don't know. But you
Speaker 1: know he's he's done these elections offshore. He knows better
Speaker 1: than anybody. He says the same thing. I am the
Speaker 1: sharpest betters in the world. It's like they lost their minds.
Speaker 1: It is the It's the most fascinating thing I've ever seen.
Speaker 1: But Gil, I do want to point out that, like
Speaker 1: I agree with you, right, Like, I think we should
Speaker 1: recognize how good the pre flop markets were, especially compared
Speaker 1: to all the models, um, which you know makes a
Speaker 1: model or like me, unhappy. But that's beside the point.
Speaker 1: The other thing that should be recognized about what happened
Speaker 1: with the craziness of those models is that Trump was
Speaker 1: up pretty big and and I don't know about big,
Speaker 1: but he was up in Wisconsin and Michigan and and
Speaker 1: and and he's still up in Pennsylvania. Right. So, like
Speaker 1: you had that kind of bias data set where you
Speaker 1: were getting more of the voters that we're going to
Speaker 1: vote for him because they, you know, went to the
Speaker 1: polls on Pole Day, and you had this extra factor
Speaker 1: that a lot of the votes that we're going to
Speaker 1: be for Biden we're coming in mail being counted later
Speaker 1: in those states because you know, those states couldn't count
Speaker 1: those votes. You're right it, but that that's what Joe
Speaker 1: was talking about when he talks about the five minutes snippets.
Speaker 1: And if you had rearranged them, Let's say the counties
Speaker 1: that hadn't been cast right had been cast earlier, or
Speaker 1: the mail ins if it was just in reverse order,
Speaker 1: the entire behavior would have shifted, and so for them
Speaker 1: not to know or to do any research into what
Speaker 1: counties had not yet been cast is completely mishukas well.
Speaker 1: I I think there's a lot to that because the
Speaker 1: results of Florida were shocking, both in terms of what
Speaker 1: was projected by the polls beforehand, and that was also
Speaker 1: another state where the markets were right on that Trump
Speaker 1: should have been the favorite, and the margin was kind
Speaker 1: of shocking. But I also think like just not understanding
Speaker 1: that the mail and votes were going to come in
Speaker 1: later and that it was far from over in the
Speaker 1: three keys Midwest states. I think that has to be
Speaker 1: at least a little bit of what happened late on
Speaker 1: Tuesday night, right. But it's still for me, still falls
Speaker 1: under the general category of people who are otherwise really
Speaker 1: smart betters not figuring that out. Is there's and maybe
Speaker 1: that's a Donald Trump effect, maybe you know, I don't know.
Speaker 1: Maybe that's just a historical anomaly that will not exist
Speaker 1: the next time. I don't know, but it's perspective. It
Speaker 1: was incredible. The only thing it reminded me of the
Speaker 1: Colts Steelers playoff game back with Peyton Manning in two
Speaker 1: thousand and six Stealers were up about fourteen three or
Speaker 1: twenty one three, and um Paula Malu intercepted and jumped
Speaker 1: up and didn't get touched down. Do you remember that game?
Speaker 1: And then Big Ben Fumble gave the ball to Bettest
Speaker 1: to end the game at the two yard line, and
Speaker 1: he fumbled the ball, and then the Colts guy starts
Speaker 1: running the other way and Ben makes a miracle tackle
Speaker 1: in the playoff game. You remember this? And then Vanderjack
Speaker 1: missed the field goal. It was that was the only
Speaker 1: thing I could even compare it to. Slightly. The Steelers
Speaker 1: were like minus eight hundred and then went to plus
Speaker 1: one seventy about ten minutes later in the most incredible,
Speaker 1: you know, turnaround game of all time. You don't remember
Speaker 1: that game? Deal, I don't know. I just don't understand.
Speaker 1: I don't understand why of all games, that one is
Speaker 1: interesting because which money line It switched money lines so
Speaker 1: drastically it's such a short period of time. But again
Speaker 1: that's not that's not the point. I mean, tennis matches
Speaker 1: money line switched drastically all the time. The point is.
Speaker 1: The point is the difference between the pre flop and
Speaker 1: the live betting. That is the most bizarre thing. This
Speaker 1: would This would be like a football team was up,
Speaker 1: was it was favored by a dollar eighty favorite, and
Speaker 1: they took the opening kick and went down and kicked
Speaker 1: the field goal, and all of a sudden the other
Speaker 1: team became minus four dollars. I mean, then nothing happened
Speaker 1: that wasn't expected to your point, except that the game,
Speaker 1: except that the Joe p It's like, but the Joe Peter.
Speaker 1: The thing is, it's it's different than a sporting event, right,
Speaker 1: because this was like the sporting event had already been played.
Speaker 1: They ignored the pre flop number, they were fed information
Speaker 1: in a certain order. It's just like, it's unlike the
Speaker 1: sequencing what this was all about the sequencing of the count.
Speaker 1: And but it wasn't as if every network wasn't explaining
Speaker 1: the sequencing of the count and how all the later
Speaker 1: numbers would favor Biden exactly exactly. It's not like the
Speaker 1: information wasn't there. That's what so bizarre. Anyway, what game
Speaker 1: do you want? No part of Todd? I don't know,
Speaker 1: Kansas City. Okay, there you go. Great stuff. Well this
Speaker 1: was fun. This was just great. Yeah, I'm sorry. Something
Speaker 1: had to be said about the most incredible election betting.
Speaker 1: I sure it did, but it had to be done
Speaker 1: in a politically critical kind of way. It's going to
Speaker 1: be the craziest election thing wherever gonna see. And I
Speaker 1: will know because I will only point to the fact
Speaker 1: that at one point in the in March, you could
Speaker 1: have gotten Biden at like ten to twelve to one
Speaker 1: to become the Democratic nominee. Do you guys remember when
Speaker 1: he was dead like he was dead, yes, like he
Speaker 1: hadn't even he hadn't showed in the first three states,
Speaker 1: and this was before South Carolina voted. I don't disagree
Speaker 1: with I don't disagree with an arc over the course
Speaker 1: of a campaign. I mean, I had Biden from earlier
Speaker 1: this year plus money, you know too, I don't disagree
Speaker 1: with that. We'll see that again. I just don't know
Speaker 1: that we'll see what happened on the day itself be
Speaker 1: so distanced from reality, I don't know. I feel like
Speaker 1: if anything is going to be so distanced from reality,
Speaker 1: it's going to be a political market. Well, okay, maybe,
Speaker 1: I mean maybe that's and that's I think the distinction
Speaker 1: that sports bettors need to make. Sports bettors who who
Speaker 1: show fealty to betting markets as the king need to
Speaker 1: finally realize that this is not that you know, that's
Speaker 1: that's what's interesting about it. Yeah, yeah, but some of
Speaker 1: yet some of it was so good, right right, It's yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a it's a really interesting thing to pars out,
Speaker 1: especially as like I'm continuing, like reloading predicted to see
Speaker 1: what that market is saying about these last four states.
Speaker 1: By the way, what is it as we as we
Speaker 1: sit here right now, Gil, Do you agree with me
Speaker 1: Gil though that the overreaction was a response to Miami
Speaker 1: Dade County or no, I don't know all I maybe
Speaker 1: maybe it was, Maybe it wasn't it was. Certainly it
Speaker 1: was certainly again I believe it's muscle memory from right.
Speaker 1: All of that was in the Ghoulash, as you would say, Todd,
Speaker 1: that there was like, oh, this is happening again. And
Speaker 1: I don't think people were I don't think people were
Speaker 1: using their heads. I really don't. I agree with you, Todd,
Speaker 1: and that people extrapolated how well he did in Dade
Speaker 1: County with a largely Cuban vote to say, oh my god,
Speaker 1: the polls were all wrong again in every state in
Speaker 1: the Union. And by the way, the polls were wrong,
Speaker 1: but the problem was Biden was up too much. Ed
Speaker 1: you were going to say, well, I'm just saying, like
Speaker 1: the polls were pretty often Texas, UM, right, Like Trump
Speaker 1: ended up winning by eight points, where the polls that
Speaker 1: he went by two. You know, like I think Biden
Speaker 1: was ahead in UM, North Carolina, you know, states like
Speaker 1: that too. So like I think, I mean, I think,
Speaker 1: I think there was enough wrong with the polls that, like,
Speaker 1: I understand why some veddors would think, oh, this happened
Speaker 1: in Florida, this happened in Miami Dade County. The polls
Speaker 1: were off as much as they were in two thousand sixteen.
Speaker 1: I'm going to forget about the fact that the late
Speaker 1: coming votes are Biden in the Midwest, the states that
Speaker 1: had counted, and and go crazy, We're kind of saying
Speaker 1: Poles were off as much as well. We're all I mean,
Speaker 1: that's I'm not saying that I agree with that. I
Speaker 1: think just wrapping it up, I think that that's what
Speaker 1: makes this so interesting. The polls were way off, like
Speaker 1: r I P polls right, at least at least with
Speaker 1: Trump elections. R I P. Poles Um, maybe it's a
Speaker 1: specific dynamic to him, the mischiu goss of the of
Speaker 1: the live betting market. The fact that we probably need
Speaker 1: to have a conversation no matter who wins this election ultimately,
Speaker 1: because we're here on Thursday morning on the doorstep, but
Speaker 1: we don't have an official winner yet. The fact that
Speaker 1: we need to have a conversation about the electoral college
Speaker 1: in this country. Right, you can't have three elections of six.
Speaker 1: If if Trump were to win this, it would be
Speaker 1: the third election in six where the popular vote winner loses.
Speaker 1: We can't have that happen fifty percent of the time.
Speaker 1: I don't think people can disagree. Um, and political what's
Speaker 1: that That sounds like an awfully political statement. No, it's not, No,
Speaker 1: it's not. That's I believe that's a structure of the
Speaker 1: nation that's not political. And more and yeah, and the
Speaker 1: fourth thing is I think the interesting other thing is
Speaker 1: some networks projected things quicker than others. Right, So Fox
Speaker 1: actually gave by Arizona like the AP did. CNN still hasn't.
Speaker 1: As we do this on Thursday morning, people could have
Speaker 1: been watching one and not the other, and it still
Speaker 1: hasn't given him. Ohio I mean, Anna is very reticent
Speaker 1: to declare anything. You know, Todd, it should be noted
Speaker 1: because you often bring up Iowa the poll that's right
Speaker 1: every one of these presidential elections. Yes, that's the best poll.
Speaker 1: Every other poll had Iowa a pick or one way
Speaker 1: or the other. They had Trump eight. They were right,
Speaker 1: and they do this every other They're the most accurate
Speaker 1: poll in every election. I've heard a lot about the
Speaker 1: more and I couldn't agree with you more on that one. Ed.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry we got more than we bargained for here
Speaker 1: on today's show. I hope you didn't mind our election talk.
Speaker 1: I think I think what happened with the betting markets
Speaker 1: in the elections is one of the most fascinating things.
Speaker 1: And if you bet on sports, how can you not
Speaker 1: be interested in that? Thank you right, thank you? Just
Speaker 1: why I brought it up. You'd be amazed at how
Speaker 1: many people who claim to be sports bettters take the
Speaker 1: position otherwise cracks me up, or sports networks they think
Speaker 1: they think sticking to sports is the way to go,
Speaker 1: and I just disagree with I think there's nothing, there's
Speaker 1: nothing more fascinating than what we just witnessed this year.
Speaker 1: I agree with that. If there was, they were betting
Speaker 1: on simulations of Madden. Okay, when there was no sports,
Speaker 1: they were betting on simulations of a computer football game. Okay,
Speaker 1: now that are you kidding me? They're getting there. They're
Speaker 1: gonna they're gonna criticize because of politics they're betting on Madden.
Speaker 1: I do. I mean, I don't know who you're talking
Speaker 1: about specifically, but meaning sports betters are going to give
Speaker 1: you ship for for talking political betting when they when
Speaker 1: there was no sports, they were willing to bet on
Speaker 1: a computerized football. So my yeah, my point is the
Speaker 1: sports bettors. I hang out with all of them. That's
Speaker 1: all we talked about. What's political betting? All year long?
Speaker 1: That's all we talked about, just because sociologically betting market wise,
Speaker 1: just fascinating sort of case study. Um, all right, more
Speaker 1: than something wanted bargain for. I hope you didn't mind
Speaker 1: our our foray into election talk. Fascinating to me, fascinating
Speaker 1: ed that's all that we uh. When do I get
Speaker 1: to talk quantum physics with you and the illusionary nature
Speaker 1: illusory nature of reality? Who you want? Man? You know
Speaker 1: where to find me? Okay, I have to get your
Speaker 1: your your info from Gil because you sound like an
Speaker 1: interesting kind of I think we're I think we're connected
Speaker 1: on Twitter, so hit me up whenever. Alright. For Mike Palm,
Speaker 1: I had to explain it to Gil, but he doesn't
Speaker 1: get it. It's over God. Here we go from Mike
Speaker 1: Palm for Todd wishnem and our and our guest, Ed.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, man, appreciate the time. Hey, thanks
Speaker 1: so much for having me. Thank you so much. Ed
Speaker 1: Fang from the Power Rank and I buried the headline
Speaker 1: with Ed and the father of lovely kids, the oldest
Speaker 1: of which Eli is a said his name is that
Speaker 1: okay if I said his name? Oh yeah, that's fine,
Speaker 1: all right, burgeoning star, greatest looking kid, smartest kid you'll
Speaker 1: ever find. So, Ed, you're doing well there. Congratulations to
Speaker 1: you and your wife. Thank you all for listening. Good
Speaker 1: luck with all your picks this week. Week nine in
Speaker 1: the NFL. Thanks so much,