WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 9 Preview 0:00:03.640 --> 0:00:13.680 Check it on Man No down many check it on 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:18.720 Thursday morning, November. It's the Meeting the Book podcast live 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:23.720 from the D in beautiful downtown Las Vegas. Not at 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:26.000 Cercy yet, they're working at the Kinks. I'm not gonna 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:28.000 lie to you, but we love the D. It's our 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:32.080 whole little nook and cranny rolled into one. Uh live 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:36.040 here in front of a packed crowd. Mikey, I mean there, ah, 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:39.520 why there is standing room only? Well, the last person 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:43.080 to leave Bar Canada please turn out the lights. I mean, 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:45.479 but I mean but the Sunday before Circle Open, we 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:47.760 had a hundred and fifty people in this area. And 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.040 last Sunday I called over. They said we've got three customers. 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:57.040 So well, we still love over. It's COVID safe, it's safe. 0:00:57.040 --> 0:01:00.000 There's a lot of distancing. That's the voice of Mike Palm, 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:03.840 the vice president of operations at Circuit Sports. And that's 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:06.360 the voice of Todd wishnep know what. And here's the thing. 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:10.319 He got so upset at me calling his his attic 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:13.440 a cork addict that now he has given us a 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:16.160 virtual background. Todd, please explain your background. For those who 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:18.880 will watch the video of this well, you know, as 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:21.320 as you know, I like to talk about models and 0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:23.640 and how if you put bad things and models, they 0:01:23.680 --> 0:01:25.320 come out bad, and if you put good things and 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:27.760 model they come out good. That's why I call a 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:31.240 real good model a Google Loosh model. Some data some 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:34.400 eyes see with your eyes. And that's my guy back 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:37.600 there who runs my Goolosh model. There. It is Todd 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:40.160 Wish to everybody, and our rotating guest today, who has 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:42.760 been on the show many times before. We're happy to 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:45.480 have him back this week from the Power Rank, the 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:48.360 creator of The Power Rank, and of course the host 0:01:48.400 --> 0:01:51.000 and co host of more than one podcast, including his 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:54.440 own football analytics podcast and one that he does with 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:58.880 his buddy Jim Sunnis. Uh, fan duel, It's PhD from 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:03.120 Stanford and Fang. How you doing it? I'm doing great, kill, 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:05.800 Thanks so much for having me on. Intro? Was all 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:09.519 that accurate? I believe that was all accurate. I think 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:14.280 my PhD somewhere around this room. Uh, but I don't 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:15.720 know if I could find the proof. But yeah, I 0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:17.680 believe that to be accurate. Can you tell people I 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:19.280 love it? I know you probably hate that I do 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:21.840 this all the time. Can you tell people the subject 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:24.680 of your PhD just because I think it's awesome just 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:27.639 to hear it. Yeah, so I did my PhD and 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:30.360 statistical mechanics. So it's a branch of physics where you 0:02:30.360 --> 0:02:33.520 try to understand the bulk properties of matter from the 0:02:33.560 --> 0:02:36.360 fact that it's made up of atoms, and so you 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:40.400 have a lot of noise. I love quantum physics, and yeah, 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:45.160 a new ton of physics is awesome. So so anyways, 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:47.160 when you think about things on the atomic level, there's 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:50.200 a lot of noise. Things jiggle around, right, And though 0:02:50.400 --> 0:02:53.160 that type of noise ends up being looking exactly like 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:55.360 what we see in sports. So it ended up being 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:58.920 a perfect background to to get into sports and understanding 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:02.400 what happens when the randomness and football and basketball and 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:04.960 all kinds of other sports. God, do you feel bad 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:08.760 about your ghoulash model? Now here's the thing, quantum mechanics 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:13.000 and um and what was that? What was the other thing? Oh, 0:03:13.120 --> 0:03:15.600 Mike's belly and your belly are very similar. A lot 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:18.360 of things jiggle around a lot. You heard, I threw 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:22.200 my belly into it. This guy loses a few pounds, 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:24.280 and all of a sudden, it's other people's bellies to 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:27.480 Todd was very close to getting a PhD in in 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:29.840 in quantum physics as well, but he focused on his 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:33.680 career as a D three basketball player. Right as a 0:03:33.760 --> 0:03:37.800 converted Orthodox Jude D three baller, I don't mind our 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:41.920 kindergarten antics over here, but I do love what did 0:03:41.920 --> 0:03:44.440 you say it? Oh, I'd rather be a D three 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:48.160 basketball player, man ship, Oh yeah, hell yeah? And anyways, 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:51.920 you plays I didn't play Division three. I would have claimed, 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:54.400 He claims he would have been a legend at Division 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:57.960 three basketball. The problem is that I got brainwashed into 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:04.280 a rabbinical seminary in Jerusalem, learning Talmud ten hours a day, 0:04:04.520 --> 0:04:07.080 and then that ruined my basketball career. But I was 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:09.160 quite good. I probably could have played even Division two. 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:12.320 But uh, you know whatever, you could have been a regular. 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:14.400 Who was that kid in Baltimore that were the Yama 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:17.719 cut that was like a big he? Actually, you know, 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:19.640 Tamir Goodman went to the high school I went to 0:04:19.720 --> 0:04:23.920 in Pittsburgh, and I was the superstar before him. Tam Goodman. Well, 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:25.480 growing up in d C. There all of a sudden 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:29.200 there was this kid Tamir Goodman in Baltimore. Yeah, Jewish Jordan. 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:31.120 They called him. He was supposed to be like the 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:35.560 next big thing. What happened and nothing happened? Maryland. Maryland 0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:38.560 was supposedly recruiting him, but he really wasn't that good 0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:41.520 and he ended up but he still played Division one. 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:44.640 That's still pretty good. Yeah, give him that. All right, 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:47.640 it's week nine in the National Football League. Todd, did 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:49.320 you want to update records? I think this is what 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:55.040 starts the show now. Sure. Gilly the Iceman had a 0:04:55.160 --> 0:04:58.599 huge week last week. I believe it's three and nada 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:01.360 to put him from n in eleven one to twelve 0:05:01.440 --> 0:05:05.040 eleven and one. He gets over the five hundred mark. Unfortunately, 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:07.080 he loses his first teaser in a while and goes 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:10.640 to six and two. Mikey had a poor week from 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:13.120 one and two. He went to thirteen ten and one. 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:17.560 Still a very solid season, but from Circa and I 0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:19.440 also had a good week of two and one to 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:23.200 move to eleven and thirteen. Me and Mikey both lost 0:05:23.240 --> 0:05:25.280 our teasers, so all three of us are six and 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:28.760 two on teasers. Still extremely respectable and Mikey the the 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:33.680 Circa Survivor update is amazing. Still week after week, Yeah, 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:38.359 we were at three fifty going into week eight, three 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:41.400 entries did not did not get submitted again. So that 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:44.680 makes all eight weeks that we've had in one or 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:47.559 more Survivor entries not get submitted. Is that the same person? 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:50.000 It was the one? This time it was a singular 0:05:50.040 --> 0:05:51.800 person who had three. I feel bad for the guy. 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:53.600 I mean, he gets to Thanksgiving with three, that's a 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:55.840 pretty good spot. I think you're gonna have to when 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:58.599 you get to Thanksgiving to Derek's double option where you 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:01.280 pick both sides of the Lions Texans or if you've 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:02.960 got to, I mean, if you've got to, A lot 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:05.279 of people have already used Baltimore in Pittsburgh and don't. 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:08.040 They won't have that game available on Thanksgiving. So that's 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:11.440 a big strategical decision this week. Where did you did 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:13.520 you think at the start of the year, when you 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:16.960 entered Survivor Gil and you're still alive, correct, that you 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:19.720 would be holding out the football team for Thanksgiving? That's 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:24.320 the best pet you know, it's it's it's a huge consideration. 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.480 And by the way, they might be a consideration this 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.080 week too, right, but there's a few of them right Houston, 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:35.400 because Jake Gluton is starting for Jacksonville, Washington. Um, obviously 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:38.640 what you just mentioned in Pittsburgh is a consideration. We 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:41.080 don't know if Matthew Stafford is playing this week. So 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:45.440 they're their teams that you know that don't ee that 0:06:45.520 --> 0:06:47.599 we don't know from week to week what what's going 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:51.000 to happen with them, So you know, do you play 0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:53.520 against Detroit anyway? Detroit plays on Thanks again, but that's 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:55.720 not the same thing. Those first three teams are considerations, 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.960 so I don't know. Three thirty one now, so we lost, 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:04.120 uh yeah, lost nineteen um nine of them I believe 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:08.279 lost with the with the pack or no, the Bengals, 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.040 and then a seven with the Packers and then another 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:14.560 three to lose nineteen to go from three fifty and 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:18.720 what one circle? Quarterly? What was the record? Um seventeen 0:07:18.720 --> 0:07:24.400 and three? I believe split four ways. If Tampa Bay 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:26.440 would have covered on Monday night, it would have been 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:31.240 split seven ways. It was pretty interesting. Wow, people, some 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:34.240 people took out credit lines to hedge. Oh I'm sure 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:39.040 they hedged. They hedged with the Giants and won the 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:41.160 straight bet because if if Tampa would have covered, they 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:42.840 would have got a seventh of the pool. So I 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:46.360 mean they must have hated to make that bet, and 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:50.320 then the end must have just been thrilled. Yeah. Wow, alright, 0:07:50.360 --> 0:07:54.080 well new quarterly starts now, right, starts this week twelve, 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:56.080 and then you do five weeks at the five weeks 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:58.800 for the last through seventeen see and of course survivor 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:01.119 the cork being that thanks Giving is its own day. 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:04.760 So we are through eight weeks next week. If you 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:09.440 get through your you're through half, but you're not really 0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:13.360 through half because Thanksgivings. Thanksgiving us the big roadblock for 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:15.600 a lot of people. But the debate, the great debate 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:17.880 this week now where we only lost nineteen and we 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:20.440 still have three thirty one, is do you think there 0:08:20.440 --> 0:08:23.080 will be someone or multiple people that go eighteen and 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:25.840 oh and and it's been a pretty good debate. I 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:27.400 think there's gonna be a lot of people that go, 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:29.800 you know why, because there's some teams that are just 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:32.160 so bad in this NFL. They can't beat anybody, and 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:34.120 you can pick against them. I said this on Erica, 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:35.360 and I said, I haven't had a chance to talk 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:38.640 to Mike about this, but if you hadn't included the 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:44.760 Thanksgiving anomaly, you would have had maybe a hundred people 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:47.600 end up going the whole way. I'm all shaw Um 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:51.480 who is a bit player at Vesta, and uh texted 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:53.360 me this week. He's so mad he only bought one 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:55.560 survivor he's still alive, like you are. I think you 0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:58.439 bought two, bought one, he said. If I had it 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:00.680 to do over again, I'd have bought five because I 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:03.600 needed them to go into Thanksgiving and sacrifice a couple 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:06.120 of them to move on. He's right, He's right. I 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:07.840 lost my first one the very first week, and I've 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:10.760 had these second one the whole way through. Okay, let's 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:13.760 talk week nine before we, uh, we get into our 0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:16.600 best bets. Let's talk about the Thursday night game. Maybe 0:09:16.640 --> 0:09:18.520 this is somebody's best bet and this has been the 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:22.160 strangest Thursday Night game of them all. Uh. It was 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:24.080 a line that was on the board, then off the board, 0:09:24.080 --> 0:09:25.760 then on the board, then off the board, then back 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:29.000 on the board. The reason for that A J. Dillon 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:33.040 of the Packers tested positive and that ended up creating 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:35.720 a situation where the Packers where you didn't know if 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:37.880 Aaron Jones was gonna play anyway. By the way, Aaron 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:40.240 Jones questionable tonight, they say if he suited up, don't 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:42.520 expect the full workload even if it does, even if 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:45.640 he does play, um and so the Packers are gonna 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:51.520 be depleted there Um Jamal They're already without Jamal Williams, 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:55.320 so it'll be Tyler Irvin and Dexter Williams household names 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:58.880 in the backfield, whether Jones plays or not. Uh. Then 0:09:59.080 --> 0:10:01.440 there was the Niners. They already have the Garoppolo injury 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:05.600 and the and the more importantly the Kittle injury from 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:07.800 this past weekend. Kittle's gone for basically the rest of 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:10.520 the regular season. Garoppolo will be gone from multiple weeks, 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:12.600 whether you think that's the downgraded Nick Mullins or not. 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:17.199 Then they had a Kendrick Born positive test and because 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:21.000 of tracing. Then last night we hear, well, here's the deal. 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:23.160 They're also gonna have a bunch of guys that are 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:27.120 on the COVID nineteen reserve list, including Brandon aiyuk uh, 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:30.240 including Deebo Samuel who already had an injury anyway, So 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:34.120 the Niners will not have a single player tonight who 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:37.240 played a down in the NFC Championship, and they will 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:40.200 have players with the names of Trent Taylor and Richie 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:44.240 James out on offense tonight. Maybe a Kevin White signing. 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:46.760 That might be one name you remember, Chicago Bears first 0:10:46.800 --> 0:10:49.000 round draft pick. But they're gonna have to think of 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:52.240 calling players up like River Craik Aft or Chris Finkey. 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:53.839 I don't know who they'll end up in the end, 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.240 but that's the story. And so the line has crept 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:59.120 up all week long. I crept up, has just zoomed upward. 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:01.880 And this morning it had gone past the seven to 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:04.520 seven and a half right now, Todd, you tell me 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:06.960 if if this is right, I'm seeing more sevens than 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:12.400 seven and a half. So what are you saying I'm seeing? Uh? Yeah, yeah, 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:17.000 I would say I would say it's like seven, yeah, 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:19.280 close to seven, closer to seven right now. But I 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:20.680 did see it was It was seven and a half 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:22.360 this morning for sure. And there's some spots words seven 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:24.640 a half. Anyway, does anybody have a play given that 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:28.040 whole backdrop, ed will start with you anything on tonight's 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:30.600 Thursday night game at all? Well, it kind of depends 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:32.560 on what Todd is gonna suit off for wide receiver 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.160 for the for the Niners tonight. With this with his 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:40.240 with his basketball skills, So, um, injury can't I'm injured, 0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:43.960 I'm out, alright, alright, Well, that that definitely changes my mind. 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:46.360 The thing that's really interesting to me about San Francisco 0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:49.000 is that, you know, they've been really good despite all 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:52.320 their defensive injuries this year. My numbers have liked them. 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:54.760 My numbers would have actually predicted that movement from Seattle 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:57.120 being a three point favorite to one point favorite last week. 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:00.520 But you know, the injuries are piling up, and when 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:02.680 you have no wide receivers and you and you're missing 0:12:02.920 --> 0:12:07.200 a difference maker like George Kittle, Um, it's hard to 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:09.839 I mean, it's hard for me to quantify what those 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:14.080 cluster injuries means. So uh, it's a past for me. Um, 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:16.079 although I do think seven and seven seven and a 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:20.080 half for for Green Bay on the road is a lot. Yeah, 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:23.240 that that it definitely met resistance initially at seven, that 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:25.120 it did get through to seven half. I'm seeing six 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:29.080 and a half in some spots now too. Mikey, anything 0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:34.520 is Jimmy g playing, He's done, it's Nick mullins. I Uh, 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:38.920 it's not an official play, um, but in real life, 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:43.720 I've I've got plus seven. I just I can't get 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:47.400 over in my mind the Packers two performances in California 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:50.480 last year, both when they went to play the Chargers 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:53.600 in Carson and got completely dominated, and then and then 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:56.439 the NFC Championship games. So it's tough to lay seven 0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:59.120 on the road. And let's face it, their offense has 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.600 gone dormant for stretches now. Um, they scored ten early 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.120 in Tampa Bay and then and then nothing, and then 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:09.800 last week a Vikings team that's still depleted and young defense, 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:11.560 and I know Zimmer's coaching them up and they're going 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:13.480 to get better as the year goes along. But I mean, 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:15.840 they couldn't put points on the board in the second 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:18.480 half of that game either. So I like the points tonight, 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:21.320 taking the points, but not an official bet Todd anything. 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:24.160 I leaned the opposite way. I I saw a thing 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:27.360 on Twitter that showed all the people that we're in 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:33.200 the starting lineup for San Francisco's offense and like everybody's out, 0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:36.800 basically just like you just gave even Lineman everybody. It's 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:38.839 just ridiculous. And have you had enough of the Nick 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:42.199 Mullins and Bobby Bethard experience? Is you know? I mean 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:50.720 it's ridiculous. Who is the guy's name, CJ. Grandson, his grandson, 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:54.840 just like Dwayne Haskins is Clem Haskins. I call c J. Bethard, 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:58.240 Bobby Bethord, so so c J. Bethord and uh and 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:02.520 Mullins experience is ridic lists and not worthy. Plus the 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:07.080 Packers got smoked last week against Minnesota. I think you're 0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:09.920 you're going to run into a buzz saw here the Niners. 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:11.920 This is not their year. It's it's a check please 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:13.920 for the Niners. This year it is through no fault 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:16.440 of their own. Man. They I mean, it's incredible, It's right, 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:18.400 it's incredible what they've been able to do. The running 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:21.280 back position has been a turnstyle. By the way, Trent 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:25.640 Williams their standout, you know, multiple year Pro bowler with Washington, 0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:27.840 who's now with the Niners. He's on the COVID nineteen 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:31.120 reserve list. You're right there. Their offensive lineup tonight is 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:35.080 like a baseball lineup on like a random getaway day 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:37.960 in the middle of July where they're just throwing in everybody. 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:41.600 It's like Tau Schman and Kick, Cairo Estrada and Mike 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:44.520 Ford and you know, it's the it's it's ridiculous. I 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:50.320 believe that's pronounced Teloman by the way. Yeah, alright, so 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:52.800 no official plays then for anybody, I will say, I'll 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:56.960 probably I do think by game time I will probably 0:14:57.040 --> 0:15:00.600 talk myself into a Green Bay teaser leg. That's not sad. 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:04.120 That's probably going to be in our teaser here, might 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:08.200 I think? So? Now, what about with this take on 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:12.160 the forty Niners offense? This is still a pretty high total, 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:16.280 forty eight and a half if one team is so depleted, um, 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.240 and it's come down from from north of fifty. But yeah, 0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:22.640 so I know people, I know people that teased Packers 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:27.960 and the under Tonighters and unders. So down to one 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:30.560 and and under fifty four and a half would very 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:32.880 well be a play for me on Primetime Action tonight 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:38.080 on the MSG plus Live from the South Point. All right, 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:42.040 Uh okay, best bets AD Number one for you, sir 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:46.080 is Yeah. So the number one game I kind of 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:48.960 like this week is New Orleans with the points at 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:51.360 Tampa Bay. I think this is gonna be incredible match 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:54.240 up with with what New Orleans to be able to 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:56.880 do with their offense without Michael Thomas for most of 0:15:56.920 --> 0:16:00.240 the year very high. My efficiency numbers. Third, I look 0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:03.880 at a Justice success rate. Um, we'll see what happens 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:07.400 with Antonio Brown. But uh, and they faced Tampa Bay 0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:09.480 that's got one of the best defenses in the league. 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:13.240 So I feel like that's an excellent matchup. Um. When 0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:17.280 I run the numbers for this game, it's hard for 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.480 me to make a line that's as big as four 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:23.880 or I actually bet this at five earlier in this week. Um, 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:25.640 when you just look at the data from this year, 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.480 including you know how New orleans Is defense has kind 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:31.560 of struggled. Um, I mean the most I can make 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.400 this is is uh is Tampa Baby by by two 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:36.480 and a half points. So I definitely think there's value 0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:38.280 on the New Orleans side. I think this is a 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:42.240 key for I mean, I think, you know, we could 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:45.000 definitely see these teams, uh, you know, meeting in the playoffs. 0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:47.360 I think the to the primary Super Bowl contenders in 0:16:47.400 --> 0:16:50.400 the league, along with Seattle. But I'll take New Orleans 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:53.040 in the points. Aaron Shots is number one team in 0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:54.920 d v o A at this point in the season, 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:58.760 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But New Orleans has uh definitely 0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:02.640 not had a intact lineup, Michael Thomas in and out 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.600 of the lineup, and Drew Brees. Though this year this 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:10.200 is an amazing stat. Drew Brees last week one pass 0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:16.000 beyond twenty yards in the air. One for the season. Six. 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:18.879 That's a lot for him. I think a lot of 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:23.040 those six passes came against Detroit and maybe five, is 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:26.160 that right. I didn't know that because everyone was complaining 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:30.080 about his A dot average death to target on the 0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:32.159 I think it was the Sunday night game before. I 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:35.000 think they were playing Green Bay and then I actually 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:38.560 had New Orleans, uh, you know, covering the points in Detroit, 0:17:38.680 --> 0:17:41.720 and he was airing it out. He was whipping him downfield. 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:47.000 I think he's capable of doing it, but I don't know. 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:49.480 I don't know whether it's the game plan or what not. Um, 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:53.160 but just didn't get to Kamara and let him beat 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:56.920 fourteen guys for a first down every time. So don't 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:59.080 fix it. And you know, I'm sorry. I keep going, 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:02.160 I'm sorry, No, no, no no, no, I think that's exactly 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.080 I'm kind of done. I mean, I think, I mean, 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:06.119 I mean, we'll see what happens with Antonio Brown. We'll 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:08.400 see what happens when Michael Thomas gets back. I think 0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:12.399 he's still capable. Um. So, I I know people like 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:14.160 to make a lot of what he's doing in terms 0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:16.119 of how far he's doing in the ball downfield. But 0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:18.399 even though he isn't, they've still been very efficient on 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:20.920 the offensive side of the ball. Uh. And they'll they'll 0:18:21.040 --> 0:18:23.480 they'll get one of the toughest tests in this game. 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:27.280 And you're right, Antonio Brown makes his debut for the Buccaneers. Todd, 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:28.840 You're right, that is that does seem to be their 0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:31.280 game plan throughout three yards to Camara and haven't beat 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:34.560 I think you said fourteen guys. Uh, Mikey, I've come. 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:37.880 I've talked about your a dot all all year long. 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:41.040 And also I've never heard of that. Heard of eight 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:46.520 gaps holes but not eight dots is a dump average 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:50.200 depth of belly twice now in the first ten minutes. 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:56.000 It's a little over the top. It's a little over 0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:59.800 the top, dot, um, But this Camara to speak to Camara, 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:01.960 I mean, what what is the stat He's got five 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:06.560 seventy receiving yards and five forty are yak? I mean 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:10.040 it's incredible. Everything's behind the line of scrimmage. Think about 0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:12.000 for I didn't play fantasy this year. I think about 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:14.159 for fantasy football players who like. The three guys they 0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:18.600 were drafting at the top were Zeke, you know, uh, 0:19:18.800 --> 0:19:21.480 McCaffrey done for a huge stretch, he's coming back this week. 0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:23.400 And then the other one was Kwan, who had gone 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:25.360 for the year. So if you ended up with Camara 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:31.119 at four, you like won the lottery. Zeke has character issues. 0:19:32.200 --> 0:19:35.960 Pollard looks better than I like it. Yeah, he's Pollard 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:39.520 has more energy than Zeke doesn't. If you're watching, yes, yes, 0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.680 did you want to interrupt? Go ahead, go ahead and 0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:50.280 want to interrupt? I waited patiently. You didn't. I did, Actually, 0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:54.240 I said, whild talking. I agreed with the Pollard. It 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:57.400 was a good point. Zeke has no energy. I agree. Now. 0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:01.760 I don't know if this bothers you guys, but I 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:04.880 can't stand when they get on ESPN or Fox Sports 0:20:04.880 --> 0:20:08.120 and the narrative becomes Drew Brees doesn't throw the ball 0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:10.480 down the field. We know Drew Brees doesn't throw the 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:13.320 ball down the field. Let's not go overboard. They still 0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:17.000 move the football, folks. Okay, so this is I think 0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:20.880 that there's there's like these narratives like last year, Oh Miami, 0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:24.560 dol often stink. Ryan Fitzpatrick stinks, what are you talking about? 0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:29.080 Or here's another narrative, Trump's outperforming, it's over, it's done. 0:20:29.240 --> 0:20:32.040 The whole thing's over. Trump minus seven hundred, it's all done. 0:20:32.800 --> 0:20:36.280 Slow your role, folks, Slow your role. We know Drew 0:20:36.320 --> 0:20:38.040 Brees can't throw the football down the field, but as 0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:42.560 Ed has very ably pointed out, they still move the 0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:46.080 football and that's part of the game, moving the football. 0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:49.080 Am I wrong? Gil, You're not You're not incorrect, Todd 0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:51.560 wish you're not incorrect, and and Todd I agree with 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:53.600 you because I feel like you see the flip side 0:20:53.600 --> 0:20:55.800 of that argument to be like, look at this guy 0:20:55.800 --> 0:21:00.240 in his cannon arm right, Like that's gonna like propel 0:21:01.160 --> 0:21:05.639 Drew Lock. Drew Lock's got a cannon. Yeah, but count 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:09.119 to seven. I still have New Orleans. I still have 0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:10.760 New Orleans at full strength. Is one of the five 0:21:10.800 --> 0:21:14.280 best teams in football. I still believe. You want to 0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:17.679 say something, Mikey, I first pick, just to get it 0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:21.399 back on the rails, thank you. I I regretted that 0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:24.560 I didn't take the football team against the Cowboys because 0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:26.040