1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, we have 7 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: Rosalind Matthison in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio today. She's 8 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: Executive everit for International Government for Bloomberg News based in London, 9 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 1: but we have are here in the States this week. 10 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 1: We found on the last hour meth that she is Australian. 11 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: From some little news. What's the name of the town again, Ros, 12 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 1: it's a code Goombungee Bungee Goombungee. It's an indigenous name. Wow, 13 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: go figure. I mean, I I don't know. One day 14 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 1: me and Roz traveled to a remote town in Austria 15 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 1: to interview the former head of the FBI, James Komy. 16 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: Together really was that in Austria? Yeah, that was awesome. 17 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: That was such a cool I mean, you know, he 18 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 1: had just written a book and obviously it was like 19 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: comy versus Trump. But he's amazingly fascinating and also really tall, dude, 20 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 1: extremely tall. Yeah, explained to us, what's happening in London today, 21 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 1: folks forting us, we need to pay attention to a 22 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 1: vote that's going on in Parliament. What's going on over there? Well, 23 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 1: that's right. So it seems like enough of his own 24 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 1: lawmakers have had enough of him, and so they've submitted 25 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: letters calling for a leadership vote on his him leading 26 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 1: the Tory Party, which of course means his leadership of 27 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: the country as a whole. So that vote will happen 28 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 1: in a couple of hours today, it goes. It takes 29 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: about two hours for it to happen. They fall into 30 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 1: a room one by one and cast their vote, yeah, 31 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 1: your nay, and then there's an outcome. It looks like 32 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 1: at this point he will probably win that vote because 33 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: they need hundred eighty Tory lawmakers to go against him. 34 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: But the question is, what is the damage that's being 35 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: done simply by having this vote happen in the first place, 36 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: And what is the margin by which he would presumably 37 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,519 Speaker 1: win this vote. It could be quite tight and tighter 38 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:10,679 Speaker 1: than he would like. Can that suggests of course that 39 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,519 Speaker 1: other knives will be out for him even despite the 40 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 1: outcome today potentially, but the base cases that he wins, 41 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: right because, um, his own party is bringing this vote essentially, 42 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 1: and it's a system that I think a lot of 43 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: Americans are unfamiliar with. They have this committee. It all 44 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 1: seems so old and weird. Um, But what if they lose. 45 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 1: They're bringing on an election that they're sure then later 46 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: to lose. Well, that is the risk also from this 47 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 1: is he might win, and then he might decide to 48 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: call an election to try and get a fresh mandate 49 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: from the public or to get rid of some of 50 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: these Tory rebels. But why how could he? I mean, 51 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,360 Speaker 1: they're experiencing inflation just like we are, and they're doing 52 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: very little about it, just like we are. I mean, 53 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,640 Speaker 1: people are a lot of people are being driven into 54 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 1: poverty by these high energy praises right well, exactly in 55 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 1: all the polling shows that going to an election anytime 56 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: soon would be very self defeating for the Tories because 57 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 1: of all the things that you mentioned, particularly the state 58 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 1: of the economy, inflation, the idea has not delivered on 59 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: his promises to bring development to areas in northern England 60 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:22,679 Speaker 1: UM and so on. He came in, of course in 61 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: a landslide when UM in intercalentinam with a very large 62 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: majority for a British prime minister, and that's all seemingly 63 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: evaporated at this point. But he may decide just to 64 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: go that because he is a very charismatic politician. He's 65 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: a very charismatic campaign and maybe he thinks somehow, if 66 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: you can call an election and get out there, he 67 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: can somehow rally the faithful and get enough voters back 68 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: for the Tories. But it's a very big ask given 69 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: what we're seeing at the moment in the polling. All right, 70 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: let's switch gears rather since we have you in studio, 71 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: want to cover broad range here Ukraine, but we're not 72 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: going into our fourth month. I guess over there in Ukraine, 73 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: is there a consensus amongst the folks that really file 74 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 1: this closely how this might play out here or is 75 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 1: this just going to be a long, long slog. Well, 76 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: it's certainly hitting that kind of grinding more of attrition, 77 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: which we would imagine could go on for an extended period. 78 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: You're seeing Russian troops make incremental gains and then get 79 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 1: pushed back again. And then further gains, but suddenly holding 80 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 1: some of the ground that they've taken in the east 81 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: of Ukraine at this point controlling about of Ukrainian territory 82 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 1: either way, and very much entrenching themselves there. So what 83 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: you'll see is potentially months and months and months of 84 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: this very sort of like small bore fighting that's going 85 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 1: on on the ground. And then the question is what 86 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 1: does the rest of the world do with that, um, 87 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: even if they ship in more and more weapons, particularly artillery, 88 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 1: does that change the course of the war or are 89 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 1: we stuck with this for the foreseeable future. And at 90 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: some point, as you see France and Germany and other 91 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 1: sort of dipping their toe into the water, does the 92 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: Ukrainian president need to negotiate with with Russian the Russian 93 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 1: Russian president and does that in turn involve him agreeing 94 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:11,720 Speaker 1: to see territory. What do we know about the casualties 95 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: that the Ukrainians are are facing or you know, even 96 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 1: if it just versus the Russians, I mean, do we 97 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 1: know about numbers? Do we know, um, if they're if 98 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: they're losing by a light Well, the numbers are very 99 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 1: hard to get a clear view of because of course 100 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 1: they're coming from either side with their own interpretation on it, 101 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: but what's clear is that both sides are suffering extensive 102 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 1: casualties in terms of manpower. At this point, Russia has 103 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: lost a lot of equipment as well, which has been 104 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 1: very difficult for it in terms of its campaign on 105 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: the ground. But just as Russia has lost all the trips, 106 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,480 Speaker 1: so has Ukraine. And it's got conscriptions, so it's got 107 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 1: fresh people coming in. But that will also become a 108 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: problem for Ukraine the more this goes on. And because 109 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: it's more experienced fighters, of course, we're the ones who 110 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: are in there first. So what you do is you 111 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: bring in less experienced people who are conscripted um and 112 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: then over time that becomes very difficult for you crime 113 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: as well. Difficult, difficult situation. Rosalind Math is an executive 114 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: editor for International Government Bloomberg News based in London, but 115 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: here in the States. This week, I getting the least 116 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 1: briefly here in New York and head down to Washington, 117 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: d C. Rights Power. That's where the power brokers are met, 118 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: and that's where ros Mouth needs to be. I mean, 119 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:21,479 Speaker 1: you know, there's just us here in New York and 120 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 1: some others. So anyway, appreciate that. Let's get right to 121 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 1: our next guest, because we got a lot to talk about. 122 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: Prea Misra, Managing director and global head of Rates Strategy 123 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: A TV Securities Cupria. You know, I'm looking at my 124 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. My tenure treasury is kind of my first 125 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: place to go and talking rates. I got a little 126 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: headline there. It's a three spot on. That's notable, I guess, 127 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 1: but it just seems like we're in this trading range 128 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 1: here for interest rates, and that despite the fact that 129 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: my Federal Reserve has said that it's raising rates pretty 130 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 1: aggressively here, So well, what do you make of that? Sure? 131 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,239 Speaker 1: So thanks for having yes. I think rates are likely 132 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 1: to be in a range for the near term because, 133 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 1: as you said, the Fed is hiking. I think they 134 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: want to see clear and convincing signs in Chapel's words 135 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: of decline, and they were not seeing it yet of inflation. 136 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: But I think what's happened in the rates market is 137 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 1: we're also starting to price in growth fears, which is 138 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: why I think we stay in a to seventy five 139 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: three and a quarter ten year range because when you 140 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: start getting to the upper end of the range, and 141 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 1: we're right in the middle of the range now. But 142 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: if we sell off, and I do think rates are 143 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: likely with QT to get to that upper end of 144 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: the range, then the market is going to get concerned 145 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: about growth fears. And at what point I interest rates 146 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:42,239 Speaker 1: high enough that you start to impact intersensitive sectors housing, 147 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: consumer durables, you know, the savings that we're all banking 148 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: on the consumer. Those sailings are getting depleted every day, 149 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: and so I think that the growth fears prevent rates 150 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: from rising too much further out because we've priced in 151 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 1: a lot. A lot in terms of FED hikes have 152 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: already been priced in, so I do there's a ceiling 153 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 1: there in terms of growth fears that prevents rates from 154 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 1: rising a lot. And on the downside, which is why 155 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: I think we stopped around that. To this, inflation is 156 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 1: just too high, and so I don't think the FED 157 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: is ready to blink or even um sort of suggests 158 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: that it pauses. Likely I do think they won't be 159 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 1: able to hike as much as is priced in. So 160 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: we like the front end, but the long end, with 161 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: inflation high QT happening, I think that long end has 162 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 1: some more room to rise. How much of this is 163 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously, if the FED is going to keep 164 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: hiking rates, and you know, the econ one oh one 165 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 1: lesson is you don't want to hold this paper because 166 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: you're going to be able to get something that yields 167 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: more later. Um. But that's program perspective of somebody who 168 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: wants UH to be clipping coupons? Right? Are they drawn 169 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: in at three three and a quarter to a point 170 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:54,719 Speaker 1: where it kind of puts a cap on on the 171 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: yields that can how high they can rise? Yeah, so 172 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: you're bringing up the supply demand. I think supply demand 173 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: is still negative for treasuries, meaning you know, three and 174 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: a quarter with inflation at six eight, depending on which 175 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: measure you're looking at. Yes, coupons are higher today than 176 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: they were a year ago, but I think it's I'm 177 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: hard pressed to think that it's attractive. We're still seeing 178 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: outflows from fixed income funds. We've had one week of inflow, 179 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: so I still don't think there's demand coming from you know, 180 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 1: how much interest rates have risen. Where the demand is 181 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:30,680 Speaker 1: coming from people trying to hedge for recession risks or 182 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 1: growth slow down, And so if you have a risk 183 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 1: asset in your portfolio, having some treasuries that will provide 184 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 1: that hedging property, which I have to say, treasuries were 185 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 1: not a great hedge in the first quarter, but that 186 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: hedge has come back. I think now we've growth slows down. Yeah, 187 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 1: those hikes are going to get priced, and so it's 188 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 1: more from a macro economy slowdown risk asset performance. That's 189 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 1: where the demand for treasuries is coming from, not just 190 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: from a raging stand I mean a key question is, um, 191 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: how quickly you see inflation coming back down to you know, 192 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,679 Speaker 1: the two percent what we've decided I guess as an 193 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 1: acceptable level. Does that come down to to you know, 194 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: two or three percent at the end of I struggled 195 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 1: to say that, or we we don't even have it 196 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: at three. We have it a little bit above three 197 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 1: at the end of next year. And so that's the 198 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: tricky part. I mean, as much as the FED is 199 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 1: committed I think to price stability, the administration's committed to it, 200 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 1: there are aspects of inflation that are out of their control, food, energy, 201 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: even parts of shelter. We have a demographic shift in 202 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: housing and there just hasn't been enough creation of that 203 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: housing in the last few years. So I think, um, 204 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:45,439 Speaker 1: you know, and I think this is a question, a 205 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 1: tough question the FED will have to answer by your 206 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 1: end is do they are they okay with inflation decelerating? 207 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: They clearly want a deceleration, but if it decelerates to 208 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 1: three and a half, it's still significantly lower than here 209 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 1: is at okay? Can they be a little more patient 210 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 1: trying to get to that two percent target over four 211 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: years rather than one year? So you know, in our 212 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 1: forecast right now, even so, at the end of this 213 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: year were four and a half on PC, at the 214 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: end of next year a little over three. But we 215 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: think the FED might be comfortable as long as it's 216 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: heading in the right direction, as long as we age inflation, 217 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 1: which is also an important part of this, is not accelerating. 218 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 1: I think, you know, their tolerance band will be tested 219 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 1: by the market, but slowing growth will allow them to say, 220 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: maybe we just have to tolerate high inflation for a while. 221 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 1: But it's something I think we haven't really heard from 222 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 1: the FED yet, and that that's still an open question. 223 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 1: All right, pre Miser, thank you so much for joining us. 224 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: As always, we love getting your thoughts on kind of 225 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: where rates may be heading and what this feder reserved 226 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 1: maybe thinking about as we passed through the data misras 227 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: a Managing director and global head of rate strategy at 228 00:11:53,320 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 1: TD Securities. Here, all right, let's talk side our security 229 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 1: will shift gears there. We're all putting more and more 230 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 1: as we you know, in the last two years, work 231 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 1: from homes, learn from home, putting more and more data 232 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: in the cloud, doing more and more with technology, and 233 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,839 Speaker 1: of course that raises the concerns about data security, cybersecurity 234 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: broadly define. Our next guest is absolutely on the front 235 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 1: lines of that. Guilt Schwed is the CEO of Checkpoints 236 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: Software Technologies. You can find that on nastack c h 237 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 1: KP is a tick of your you put into your 238 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:30,439 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. Guil, thanks so much for joining us here. Again, 239 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 1: it just seems like your business cybersecurity is more important 240 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 1: than it's ever been as we put more and more 241 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: or we engage more and more with technology and put 242 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: more and more data in the cloud. Give us just 243 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 1: your thirty thousand foot view with where this tech stack 244 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: is in terms of cybersecurity. Hi, Paul, I met the 245 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:52,000 Speaker 1: first year. Absolutely right, we are more vulnerable than ever 246 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: to cyber attack, both because we're dependent on the Internet 247 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 1: and the network so much, and also because the attacks 248 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 1: are becoming more more sophisticated. The software that we use 249 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 1: on every device, on our laptop, on our you know, 250 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: home TV or vacuum cleaner, each one of them has software. Unfortunately, 251 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: all that software has vulnerabilities, and the hackers do take 252 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 1: advantage of that. And and we are I think almost 253 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 1: all time high in terms of number of attacks. So 254 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 1: what's the answer. I mean, um, do you just have 255 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 1: to keep building a better mouse trap over and over 256 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 1: and over again? First we do, I mean our the 257 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 1: systems we build in our industry are all are many 258 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: of them are real time updated and they try to 259 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 1: adjust themselves all the time. We're building systems that try 260 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 1: to stop attacks, even attacks that we don't know about. 261 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: That using AI looks at the different patterns of usage 262 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: and when they see something that's suspiciously just stop it. 263 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 1: And the yes, we do have run as fast as 264 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 1: we can to top the attackers. Give us a sense guil. 265 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 1: I think what gets some people who don't live this 266 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 1: every day but get some really concerns when they hear 267 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: about state sponsored cyber attacks. State sponsored ransomware, that type 268 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 1: of thing. It gives a sense of how that has 269 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 1: evolved and kind of what you think at all do 270 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: going forward. So first, many large, many advanced economies and 271 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 1: countries developed state sponsor technologies to either spy on the 272 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 1: enemy or even attack at time of four. The challenge 273 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 1: is not that we're trying just to fight our government 274 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: were not. The challenges that with technologies falls into the 275 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 1: hands of the wrong guys. And that's something. For example, 276 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: last year there was a devastating attack on the city 277 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 1: of Baltimore. The attack was by some foreign countries, but 278 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 1: not foreign countries, foreign groups from foreign countries, but the 279 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: technology they used was actually technology were developed by the 280 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 1: n say that I think about a few miles from 281 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 1: the same place the US and show the security agency. 282 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 1: So the challenge that we have is that this is 283 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: software technology, and sooner or later, almost any attack technology 284 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: falls into the hands of the wrong guys. Bear us 285 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: by publishing. Don't want to look like having some practical 286 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: difficulties there with with he was about to share way 287 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: too much truth with us, I think, and somebody hacked 288 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 1: his phone line. Yeah exactly, But I know this company 289 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: is based in Israel, as well. But I mean, I 290 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: just think this. I mean, we hear from everybody, um 291 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: and it's just when it hits the news every once 292 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: in a while that comes to people's attention. But we 293 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: hear companies talk about it all the time, the amount 294 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 1: they're investing in cybersecurity, because every it seems like most, 295 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: if not every company has a lot of data dependency. 296 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: I gotta be honest with you. Listening to Gil just now, 297 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: I was by the realization that technology is going to 298 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 1: be the death of us all simply, we're we are 299 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: basically engineering the end of our own world. Here. Should 300 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 1: make a movie about that. At some point, AI is 301 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 1: just gonna take over and you're not gonna worry about 302 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: your social secourney. Ne're getting hacked. Kil Let me just 303 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 1: ask you. I think we got you back on the line. 304 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 1: Here is technology going to be the end of us all? Are? We? 305 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: Are we eventually going to face our globe, our own 306 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 1: global demise at the hands of like AI and technology. 307 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: I'm actually quite optimistic. I think technology has a bigger 308 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: and bigger role in our lives. But if we look 309 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: at our personal safety and so on, it's much better 310 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: now than it used to be. A twenty or fifty 311 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 1: years ago, though the risks that we have to face 312 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 1: are different. Gil What are gen V cyber text and 313 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: why to they matter? Gen vere do what we call 314 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 1: Gen five cyber attack are the most sophisticated attacks we 315 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 1: see today. They are what we call ulti vectors. So 316 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 1: the attacks get from one place like an up you 317 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 1: download into the phone, which turns into something that gets 318 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 1: into your computer, but at the end gets the malware 319 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,640 Speaker 1: into the data center of on the cloud or at 320 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: your company. They are usually very hard to spot. They 321 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: are usually every time they come they look a little 322 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,479 Speaker 1: bit differently, so you can just say this looks like 323 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 1: an attack and they can create a lot of damage. 324 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 1: Sometimes they would hide and still the data for a 325 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: long period of time. Sometimes they would just create an 326 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:34,159 Speaker 1: attack that all on the same minute take down the 327 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:37,439 Speaker 1: entire hospital, or at the same minute take down the 328 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 1: entire nation. We just celebrate, not celebrated. We just mentioned 329 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 1: last week the fifth anniversary of the big attack on Ukraine, 330 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: not the war in Ukraine now, but five years ago 331 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: there was a huge attack. They took down the entire country. 332 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 1: So these are pretty difficult attacks to deal with. When 333 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: I think that's what we need to deal with today. 334 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: Al Right, Gil, thanks so much for going joining us. 335 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 1: Gil shwed there I think the longest serving CEO any 336 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: NASDAC company, which is pretty cool talking about um uh, 337 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 1: cybersecurity that in a sense, his company, Checkpoint, kind of invented, 338 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 1: you know. They started this whole firewall thing, and that 339 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: just seems like a great business to be in. I mean, 340 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: I just can't imagine a company over until it's all over. 341 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: I can't imagine a company saying we're gonna spend less 342 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: this year on cybersecurity than we did last year. I 343 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 1: just think every budget that comes in, you know, to 344 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 1: the CFO, is a higher budget for spending on and 345 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 1: that's good for the Checkpoints of the world and the 346 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 1: other folks that cater to that. You know. One of 347 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,239 Speaker 1: the things that's definitely changed here during this pandemic kind 348 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 1: of a I'm not sure if that's an anticipated fallout, 349 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: but workers have a lot more leverage. It seems people 350 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 1: are saying, I'm not coming back to the office, or 351 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 1: you know, it's such a type market, I'm gonna go 352 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,160 Speaker 1: leave my current job for a better paying job. It's 353 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 1: just really changed the whole dynamic of the workforce and 354 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 1: how and where you work. Nia set Home joins us. 355 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 1: She's a managing partner at set Home Law Group. Are 356 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 1: these things let's start just with the work from home 357 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 1: hybrid how do you do it kind of thing? I 358 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 1: guess companies large and small still trying to figure it out. 359 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: But it seems like the hybrid thing is kind of 360 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: the preferred model that's emerging. Is that what you're seeing. 361 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 1: I'm hearing a variety of opinions on this from the employees. 362 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 1: I'm certainly hearing that hybrid is here to stay and 363 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,639 Speaker 1: that's what they're anticipating and what they're hoping for. But 364 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:45,919 Speaker 1: a lot of business owners are struggling with the hybrid 365 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,679 Speaker 1: model for many reasons. You know, the economics of it, 366 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 1: and of course, you know, building culture and managing teams 367 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: is more difficult when people are in disjointed um parts 368 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: of the country. But you know, um, RONNIEA, the thing 369 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 1: is um A lot of employees want to have the 370 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: hired option or even completely work from home, and a 371 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:13,159 Speaker 1: lot of their old white male bosses say, no, you 372 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,360 Speaker 1: have to be in the office. Um. If I want 373 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: to work from home and I am producing just as 374 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: much or even better than I would be in the office, 375 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: but I get fired for not coming in. Do I 376 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:29,160 Speaker 1: have a case? I don't believe. So. As long as 377 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:34,880 Speaker 1: the rule is applied the same for all employees, then 378 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: I don't think you would have a case. But that's 379 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 1: the debate right now. I work with a lot of 380 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: small business owners not you know the fortune or even 381 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,680 Speaker 1: Fortune two thousand, if there is such a thing, and 382 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 1: they're not yet certain as it's a productivity and whether 383 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 1: it's better for employees to work from home or not. 384 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: All right? How about another issue. Employed at a tech 385 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 1: firm in Silk and Valley pandemic hits, I go to 386 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 1: Jackson Hole and relocate and they say, fine, you can 387 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:10,199 Speaker 1: do your job there, but we're going to pay at 388 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:14,679 Speaker 1: Jackson Hole level wages, not Silicon Valley level wages. Is 389 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 1: that okay? I think that is probably okay from a 390 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 1: legal perspective, but it is a very tough, tough till 391 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: to swallow. You're doing the same work, You're the same person, 392 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 1: you just move to geography. I don't think that's the 393 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 1: best conversation to have with employees. Is that conversation happening though? 394 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 1: Because I can see, if I'm an employer, I would 395 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: definitely want to have that conversation. It is. It is 396 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 1: definitely happening, and a lot of the reason for that 397 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: is because of the additional financial and administrative burdens that 398 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: come with allowing your workforce to work in states where 399 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 1: you may not be you know, already registered. If you're 400 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: already registered to do business there, it doesn't make too 401 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,880 Speaker 1: much difference. But if you have to now pay taxes 402 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 1: there and do a whole host of other things like 403 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: for chesse, workers compensation insurance in these other states, then 404 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:09,880 Speaker 1: that conversation is taking place with a lot of stride. 405 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 1: Now yet, Yeah, that's interesting. You know, my um my 406 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: wife is looking to hire for a position and her 407 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 1: company is willing to allow someone to work from home, 408 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: but she says she can only hire from certain states. 409 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 1: And I didn't really understand why, but I guess the 410 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,359 Speaker 1: point is for companies, this is a difficult landscape to 411 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 1: navigate because, um, you've got to be able to pay 412 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 1: workers comp in different states, or pay taxes in different 413 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: states if you want to have employees who I guess 414 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 1: have an I P address there. Right, Yes, that is true, 415 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:46,399 Speaker 1: and some of the laws are extremely cryptic as to 416 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 1: what does even working from home means. So if you're 417 00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 1: working in another state and the company registers to do 418 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,359 Speaker 1: business there, are you really working from home? Are you 419 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: working in the cafe? And then if you get injured, 420 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: who's paying for that? So it can get quite complicated. 421 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 1: So how do you think this is complaing for you? 422 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 1: The smaller businesses that you deal with, Ronnie, I would 423 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 1: think they would have less flexibility, less resources. So what 424 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 1: are you advising them or what are you seeing them do? Well? 425 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 1: I don't want to get into exactly what I advise 426 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 1: them to do. However, I do have a discussion with 427 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 1: them about the costs associated with expanding into states where 428 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: they're not already uh, you know, having employees. So a 429 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 1: lot of the clients that I work with that are 430 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 1: in fashion and tech, so they marry both fashion and 431 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: tex They don't really have any brick and mortar, but 432 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 1: they have limited the states in which will allow people 433 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: to work from home because of these additional burdens. It's 434 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 1: a whole new world out there. It's a brave new 435 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 1: worlds new world I know, and people are doing that 436 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 1: remote work, Runnie said home, thank you so much for 437 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 1: joining us. Ronnie, a Sad Home managing partner set Home 438 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 1: Law Group. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 439 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts 440 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:10,120 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 441 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:14,199 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three and on False Sweeney 442 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you 443 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio