WEBVTT - SEC Approves Bitcoin-Spot ETFs in Milestone for Digital Assets

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg business Week Inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>If you're just now joining us in breaking news, US

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<v Speaker 2>regulators for the first time approving ETFs that invest directly

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<v Speaker 2>in bitcoin. This is a move heralded as a landmark

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<v Speaker 2>event for the roughly one point seven trillion dollar asset industry,

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<v Speaker 2>the digital asset sector that will broaden access to the

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<v Speaker 2>largest cryptocurrency on Wall Street and beyond. The SEC, whose

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<v Speaker 2>three part mandate includes investor protection authorized eleven funds to

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<v Speaker 2>begin trading on Thursday. Let's now go to Carol Masser,

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<v Speaker 2>who's standing by with Kathy Wood, the CIO, CEO and

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<v Speaker 2>co founder of ARC invest.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, so, Kathy, what do you think about in

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<v Speaker 3>this moment of time, As we said, this has been

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<v Speaker 3>long in coming.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, well, you described two ways this could happen. It

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<v Speaker 4>can happen very quickly or will it happen very slowly?

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<v Speaker 4>When you're talking about institutions that that you know have

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<v Speaker 4>been very fearful of this space because of Gary Gensler

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<v Speaker 4>and you know, all of the drama. I think they're

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<v Speaker 4>going to tread lightly. I don't know if you saw,

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<v Speaker 4>but Gary Gensler put out a piece today right as

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<v Speaker 4>we're about to go effective, and I'm sure we all

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<v Speaker 4>went effective roughly around the same time, and he just

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<v Speaker 4>denigrated the whole crypto space.

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<v Speaker 5>It was just like I couldn't believe it.

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<v Speaker 4>So anyway, it's with that kind of trepidation that institutions

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<v Speaker 4>are going to have to, you know, work through and

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<v Speaker 4>do all of their due diligence. However, I do think

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<v Speaker 4>that a lot of investors have considered, you know, have

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<v Speaker 4>been curious. And you'll see we've been from a marketing campaign.

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<v Speaker 4>We've been using this tagline, aren't you a bit curious?

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<v Speaker 4>There are so many people who are curious out there.

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<v Speaker 4>Of course, a lot of our existing clients know all

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<v Speaker 4>about bitcoin because we have owned it since twenty fifteen,

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<v Speaker 4>but there are a lot of people who really have

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<v Speaker 4>a hunger to know, and we can see that as

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<v Speaker 4>more and more people read our research, tune into our

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<v Speaker 4>Bitcoin brainstorm that we do with Rod and Bitcoin Park

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<v Speaker 4>in Nashville, Tennessee. Read our Bitcoin monthlies and you know,

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<v Speaker 4>read all we have to say about crypto and blogs

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<v Speaker 4>and in our Brainstorm summary. So you know, we are

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<v Speaker 4>getting all the curiosity. I think that's why we started.

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<v Speaker 4>So we know a lot of people are waiting and

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<v Speaker 4>believe it or not, Carol the curious extend to state

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<v Speaker 4>pension funds and state treasurers we're talking to. So it's

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<v Speaker 4>a really broad swap.

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<v Speaker 5>Well catch people.

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<v Speaker 3>And I do wonder what you think success will be

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<v Speaker 3>out of the gate in terms of investment flows.

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<v Speaker 6>What's your hope, what's your goal or estimate in terms

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<v Speaker 6>of bringing investors into the fund.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, it's very interesting.

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<v Speaker 4>I was, we were I was speaking to Eric Beltunis,

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<v Speaker 4>her colleague, and according to his estimates, there's there's four

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<v Speaker 4>billion dollars waiting, you know, in the wings. And I

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<v Speaker 4>said to him, well, from your lips to God's ears,

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<v Speaker 4>that would be amazing.

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<v Speaker 5>And you know, we hope we get our fair share

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<v Speaker 5>of it.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, we've certainly, we've certainly done a lot to

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<v Speaker 4>educate the community, and we experience a lot of gratitude

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<v Speaker 4>for that too, from from from the innovation communities, including

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<v Speaker 4>the bitcoin community. But also from the financial community, those

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<v Speaker 4>who really are trying to find the next big idea.

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<v Speaker 4>The old guard you know, basically throw out there all

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<v Speaker 4>kinds of risks, and you know, some people call it fear,

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<v Speaker 4>uncertainty and doubt. It happens every time, Carol, And I'm

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<v Speaker 4>not saying it's a bad thing for people to really

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<v Speaker 4>do their homework. They should do their homework, they should

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<v Speaker 4>understand the risks. But this is par for the course

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<v Speaker 4>in disruptive innovation, you know. And thank you, Carol. You

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<v Speaker 4>gave us our first interview twenty fifteen when we were

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<v Speaker 4>barely off the ground.

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<v Speaker 5>You believed in us back then.

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<v Speaker 4>And at the time, you remember, we were talking about Tesla.

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<v Speaker 4>So fear uncertainty and doubt, not even about autonomous which

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<v Speaker 4>is the next set.

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<v Speaker 5>Of fears, but about evs.

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<v Speaker 4>Wouldn't traditional auto manufacturers absolutely choke them to death? This

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<v Speaker 4>is completely new DNA, and so it's the old DNA

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<v Speaker 4>as the old car companies were the old DNA, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>basically bashing the old new DNA.

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<v Speaker 5>But truth wins out.

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<v Speaker 4>Truth wins out, better, factor, cheaper, more productive.

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<v Speaker 3>So yeah, you know, one thing I want to ask

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<v Speaker 3>you is as like yourself all of us here in

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<v Speaker 3>the newsroom, you know, watching just you know, new things

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<v Speaker 3>come into the market over decades, and this is certainly interesting,

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<v Speaker 3>but we are still wondering about the real case use.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean that no one has really demonstrated a real

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<v Speaker 3>life use case when it comes to bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 5>We think about it all the time.

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<v Speaker 4>Our first paper, white paper, was all about could bitcoin

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<v Speaker 4>serve the three rolls of money means of exchange, store value,

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<v Speaker 4>unit of account. Most people are thinking store of value

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<v Speaker 4>right now. But I'm going to plug one of our

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<v Speaker 4>bitcoin brainstorms if you want a mind blowing experience. And

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<v Speaker 4>I am lucky to be able to ask questions on

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<v Speaker 4>these brainstorms. But we had I think it was either

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<v Speaker 4>our second or third brainstorm, which was about the convergence

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<v Speaker 4>of bitcoin and artificial intelligence. And we had on people

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<v Speaker 4>who are toiling to make all of this happen, one

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<v Speaker 4>of them a roast beef from the Lightning Network or

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<v Speaker 4>Lightning Labs. And I have to tell you what's going

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<v Speaker 4>on in the emerging markets and the division of labor,

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<v Speaker 4>the redefinition of labor a little bit like what happened

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<v Speaker 4>to the gig economy here, but put that on steroids.

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<v Speaker 4>Put that on steroids. It's already starting to happen. So

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<v Speaker 4>I would highly, highly highly advise anyone interested in trying

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<v Speaker 4>to figure out how the world is going to work

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<v Speaker 4>listen to that Bitcoin brainstorm, because it's already starting to

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<v Speaker 4>work in the emerging markets where they need it so desperately.

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<v Speaker 3>Kathy, what's the advantage of the arc spot Bitcoin etf

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<v Speaker 3>over the others who also got to prove today? You know,

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<v Speaker 3>we've been, as you know, reporting a lot about this

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<v Speaker 3>kind of war on fees. Again today you guys cutting

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<v Speaker 3>your fee. So what's the advantage of going with you

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<v Speaker 3>versus a black Rock or a Fidelity or some of

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<v Speaker 3>the other players who are out there.

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<v Speaker 4>So at least three advantages, Carol. First, we selected our

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<v Speaker 4>partner very carefully. Twenty one Shares is the largest peer

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<v Speaker 4>play crypto ETP provider in the world with two and

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<v Speaker 4>a half billion dollars in assets.

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<v Speaker 5>So what does that mean.

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<v Speaker 4>That means with their forty funds before we launched with them,

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<v Speaker 4>with their forty funds launched over five years, they have

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<v Speaker 4>battle tested their infrastructure over booms and busts, over crises, over.

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<v Speaker 5>Havings, over four kings.

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<v Speaker 4>This is not normal for the ETF world, and we

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<v Speaker 4>think the other ETF providers have a lot to learn,

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<v Speaker 4>and I'm sure they are and they will as we

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<v Speaker 4>go through these different kinds of experiences and the end

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<v Speaker 4>they have economies of scale, believe it or not that

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<v Speaker 4>have enabled us to drive down our fees.

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<v Speaker 5>This way.

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<v Speaker 4>We have more economies of scale because of the infrastructure

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<v Speaker 4>that twenty one shares have built out.

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<v Speaker 5>So that's the first. The second is research.

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<v Speaker 4>Both of us give our research away for free. Our

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<v Speaker 4>research started in two twenty fourteen. We were trying to

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<v Speaker 4>understand the technology, and then when Chris Berniski took over,

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<v Speaker 4>we fast forwarded into understanding bitcoin is money and then

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<v Speaker 4>a new asset class. So we have been taking our clients' perspective. Clients,

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<v Speaker 4>anyone who wants to read our research, this journey with

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<v Speaker 4>us through deep, deep research, and it's getting deeper under

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<v Speaker 4>Yassin's leadership.

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<v Speaker 5>So that's the second. And then the third, and this

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<v Speaker 5>one is not to.

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<v Speaker 4>Be underestimated us, especially when it comes to the wirehouses

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<v Speaker 4>like the Morgan Stanley's, the merri Lynch, the ubs Wells Fargo.

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<v Speaker 4>Our salesforce, our distributor, Resolute, has had our ETF specials

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<v Speaker 4>specialists have had to understand bitcoin since we struck our

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<v Speaker 4>partnership in twenty sixteen.

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<v Speaker 5>I had a funny story.

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<v Speaker 4>Rebecca Burke, who's our most senior ETF specialist, joked with

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<v Speaker 4>me the other day.

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<v Speaker 5>She said, do you know when I was coming to

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<v Speaker 5>interview to I looked up what is bitcoin?

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<v Speaker 4>And we all laughed about it because now she not

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<v Speaker 4>only understands it, she believes in it. Her conviction is

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<v Speaker 4>how she's able to share that message and hold client's

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<v Speaker 4>hands when bitcoin goes through some of the volatility that

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<v Speaker 4>we see it go through regularly. So I think those three.

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<v Speaker 4>We have the infrastructure and operations. We have the research,

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<v Speaker 4>deep research, and we've been doing it longer than anyone else.

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<v Speaker 4>And three we have a support team a sales team

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<v Speaker 4>that I don't think anyone else out there can beat

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<v Speaker 4>because we've been doing it together for seven years already,

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<v Speaker 4>and the same for twenty one shares. More on the

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<v Speaker 4>institutional side, they have been working with their clients for

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<v Speaker 4>five years.

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<v Speaker 3>I want to remind everybody we are, of course on

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<v Speaker 3>X basis. I'm Carol Master of Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm talking with Kathy Wood ourc invest founder CEO CIO

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<v Speaker 3>on a day when the SEC approves bitcoin spot.

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<v Speaker 2>You're hearing a conversation that Carol Masser is having with

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<v Speaker 2>Kathy Wood, the CEO, CIO and founder of ARC Invest,

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<v Speaker 2>talking all about the news today that the US regulators

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<v Speaker 2>have approved an ETF that invests directly in bitcoin. Let's

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<v Speaker 2>go back to that conversation.

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<v Speaker 6>Listing some of the concerns that could happen.

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<v Speaker 3>One of the things we wondered about Kathy, and I'm curious,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, I'm thinking people who are listening to this,

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<v Speaker 3>what is the recourse if a custodian who holds the

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<v Speaker 3>keys to bitcoin loses them, you know, are they're hacked?

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<v Speaker 6>What's the investor recourse?

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<v Speaker 4>You know what we have with us on those calls

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<v Speaker 4>of Felia and Haney, who are the founders of twenty

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<v Speaker 4>one shares this you're talking about infrastructure operations.

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<v Speaker 5>This is what I'm talking about. May I open up

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<v Speaker 5>the floor to them?

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<v Speaker 6>Aphelia, you want to come in on that. You are partnership.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, it's a partnership with you at our absolutely

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<v Speaker 3>what's your thought on that in terms of concerns that

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<v Speaker 3>if something happens, if it is hacked, what's the investor recourse?

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<v Speaker 7>So people are completely right to be concerned. This is

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<v Speaker 7>the whole point. This is not like stocks and bonds.

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<v Speaker 7>This requires a very different level of infrastructure, and so

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<v Speaker 7>I think the first step in this discussion is very

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<v Speaker 7>clearly prevention. You need to build as robust of a

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<v Speaker 7>setup as possible, and you need to battle test it.

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<v Speaker 7>So we've been battle testing our implementations with custodians, our

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<v Speaker 7>technical infrastructure and the way in which we safeguard assets

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<v Speaker 7>for five years. That's the entire point. You can't treat

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<v Speaker 7>this like any other asset in the world. It's a

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<v Speaker 7>it's a bearer asset, and it's held in a very

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<v Speaker 7>technical way. So one of the things that we do

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<v Speaker 7>is we obviously we use a concept called cold storage.

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<v Speaker 7>That means is that these assets are held offline in

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<v Speaker 7>wallets that have never been brought into the Internet, so

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<v Speaker 7>you've never used them before, which means that they are

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<v Speaker 7>the information related to the private key doesn't exist on

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<v Speaker 7>the Internet. It's sort of the you can think of

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<v Speaker 7>it as the diametric opposite of cloud storage. You essentially

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<v Speaker 7>end up with a private key that's been charted, so

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<v Speaker 7>it's been split into multiple pieces, and you need to

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<v Speaker 7>bring multiple pieces online at the same time. Those pieces

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<v Speaker 7>are held in vaults that are geographically distributed in order

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<v Speaker 7>to control access to these products, and then we obviously

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<v Speaker 7>have a really robust set of controls around that in

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<v Speaker 7>terms of how you initiate transfers and how you actually

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<v Speaker 7>move assets, because the most dangerous part of custody is

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<v Speaker 7>actually very much the point at which you access it right.

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<v Speaker 7>Very frequently, you know, when people say, oh, somebody took

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<v Speaker 7>over my exchange account, the underlying wallet's not being hacked.

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<v Speaker 7>What's actually happening is that their security and access protocols

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<v Speaker 7>are being compromised in some way not dissimilar from certain

0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:26.920
<v Speaker 7>social media issues which might have happened yesterday. And so

0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:30.640
<v Speaker 7>it's really important how you actually secure these assets and

0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:32.720
<v Speaker 7>why you need to go with a provider that's actually

0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.520
<v Speaker 7>going has a track record of doing this and knows

0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:38.880
<v Speaker 7>what they're doing through a variety of market conditions, because

0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:41.520
<v Speaker 7>this is actually a very very technical space.

0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:45.440
<v Speaker 6>I appreciate that Ophilias Knightder co founder president of twenty one.

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.960
<v Speaker 3>Years and of course offering up the Bitcoin ETF with

0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:52.240
<v Speaker 3>our investments. Kathy One thing I also think is concerns

0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:56.160
<v Speaker 3>about the price of bitcoin, the volatility. The last three

0:14:56.200 --> 0:14:58.320
<v Speaker 3>full year returns were gains of three hundred and five

0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:01.800
<v Speaker 3>percent twenty twenty up another sixty twenty one, followed by

0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:05.800
<v Speaker 3>a loss of sixty four twenty twenty two. It's it's

0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 3>a market that can move around. We saw a little

0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:10.760
<v Speaker 3>bit of a pop a bitcoin. Will volatility continue to

0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:13.280
<v Speaker 3>be a risk or something that investors have to be

0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:15.920
<v Speaker 3>very much aware of? And I'm curious, what is your

0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.120
<v Speaker 3>price forecast at this point now that you've got the

0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:19.800
<v Speaker 3>SEC approval for bitcoin?

0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:22.760
<v Speaker 5>Sure, a couple of things.

0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:31.320
<v Speaker 4>So the volatility, this again is natural for disruptive innovation

0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:36.680
<v Speaker 4>that is really going taking market share in any market.

0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:41.760
<v Speaker 4>So it's it's normal, Carol. You've seen from our funs

0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:50.320
<v Speaker 4>how how disruptive innovation can be affected by exogitiveness factors

0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:54.440
<v Speaker 4>that don't have anything to do with the share they're

0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 4>actually gaining. In fact, we know that during tough time,

0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:04.520
<v Speaker 4>innovation gains more traction because it's better, cheaper, faster, more productive,

0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:08.080
<v Speaker 4>and so forth. And this and you saw this during

0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 4>the regional bank crisis. The regional banks imploded, the KRRY

0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:18.360
<v Speaker 4>index imploded, we saw bankruptcies and bitcoin shot up forty percent.

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.240
<v Speaker 5>Why it's a flight to safety.

0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:25.120
<v Speaker 4>It is not it will not be a victim of

0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:29.120
<v Speaker 4>counter of counterparty risk the way the banks will. So

0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 4>it's it's actually as time goes on and we go

0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:36.160
<v Speaker 4>through more and more crises, and it seems the way

0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:40.880
<v Speaker 4>government spending and monetary policies go, you know that that

0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:44.400
<v Speaker 4>is not going to change. I think bitcoin is going

0:16:44.480 --> 0:16:48.600
<v Speaker 4>to prove it's worth you know, one in terms of price,

0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:51.400
<v Speaker 4>and then I'd like to just talk about fees because

0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:56.080
<v Speaker 4>that's so context. Yes, so our price target are our

0:16:56.240 --> 0:17:01.520
<v Speaker 4>bull price target, and I would say institution tuitional money

0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:07.639
<v Speaker 4>moving in makes our bull price target more likely. Now

0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:12.600
<v Speaker 4>is one point five million dollars in twenty thirty And

0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:16.160
<v Speaker 4>you can see in Big Ideas, our big ideas from

0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:22.160
<v Speaker 4>last year ar at ark dash Invest ourdash invest dot

0:17:22.200 --> 0:17:26.960
<v Speaker 4>com how we the building blocks for that number, right,

0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:31.240
<v Speaker 4>and institutional is one of the biggest reasons. In terms

0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:36.919
<v Speaker 4>of fees, you'll notice twenty one that's a very special number.

0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:39.320
<v Speaker 4>First of all, those are our partners twenty one year,

0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:45.120
<v Speaker 4>but also twenty one million units, our twenty one million

0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:51.640
<v Speaker 4>bitcoin will that is the total number that will be

0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:55.280
<v Speaker 4>printed or minted right there. It will not go past

0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:58.680
<v Speaker 4>twenty one million. This is called this is called a

0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:05.600
<v Speaker 4>rules based monetary system. And so that fee we thought

0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:09.600
<v Speaker 4>that was clever and we were going to start out

0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:11.600
<v Speaker 4>with that one, but we knew what was going to happen,

0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:15.440
<v Speaker 4>so we ended up there. But I want to bring

0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:19.320
<v Speaker 4>back something I mentioned other before. We already have the

0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:24.359
<v Speaker 4>economies of scale that others do not because of our

0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:28.199
<v Speaker 4>partner twenty one shares, and so we've been able to

0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:31.479
<v Speaker 4>negotiate down service provider fees in a way that we

0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:33.960
<v Speaker 4>would not have been able to if we had done

0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:36.800
<v Speaker 4>this by ourselves. And the other thing I want to

0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:43.280
<v Speaker 4>emphasize we are not looking to maximize profits with this.

0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:47.520
<v Speaker 4>We are looking at bitcoin as a public good. It

0:18:47.680 --> 0:18:53.840
<v Speaker 4>is a financial super highway and we want to increase

0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:57.480
<v Speaker 4>the access to bitcoin, and one of the ways to

0:18:57.560 --> 0:19:00.680
<v Speaker 4>do that is this low fee product. We have other

0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:05.280
<v Speaker 4>actively managed strategies where we can do more on the

0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:09.159
<v Speaker 4>profitability side, right, It's not our objective here, Kathy.

0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:11.000
<v Speaker 3>Just one last question and that I'm glad we got

0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:13.320
<v Speaker 3>that thirty seconds is to wrap up. I mean, what

0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:16.080
<v Speaker 3>does success look for you guys in a year from

0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:17.920
<v Speaker 3>now with this particular product.

0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:22.680
<v Speaker 4>Well, I think I think we will be a part

0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:26.119
<v Speaker 4>of the success of bitcoin broadly. I think this opens

0:19:26.119 --> 0:19:29.960
<v Speaker 4>a new chapter for bitcoin, and I would like to

0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:34.240
<v Speaker 4>believe we would we will be within the top top

0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:40.880
<v Speaker 4>three or two top providers of bitcoin through this Bitcoin ETF.

0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.320
<v Speaker 3>All right, Just lastly, as you know, I like to

0:19:43.320 --> 0:19:48.360
<v Speaker 3>squeeze and stuff fifteen seconds. Is there new cryptocurrent products

0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:50.960
<v Speaker 3>ETFs that might come out from you guys as well

0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:52.000
<v Speaker 3>in the near future.

0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:55.879
<v Speaker 5>Well, we already put with twenty one shares out five

0:19:56.119 --> 0:19:59.880
<v Speaker 5>futures products. Those are right strategy. One last thing I'd

0:19:59.880 --> 0:20:01.600
<v Speaker 5>like like to I'd like to.

0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:04.760
<v Speaker 4>Honor all of those who have toiled to make bitcoin

0:20:04.880 --> 0:20:07.159
<v Speaker 4>happen through this ETF.

0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:10.800
<v Speaker 5>I want to reassure the community, the bitcoin community.

0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:11.159
<v Speaker 1>That.

0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:18.320
<v Speaker 4>Self custody, self custody and an ETF are not mutually exclusive.

0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:23.679
<v Speaker 4>We want to see this ecosystem continue to decentralize, but

0:20:23.800 --> 0:20:28.840
<v Speaker 4>we want to bring billions of people into the ecosystem.

0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:33.480
<v Speaker 4>And this is why twenty one basis points ARKB.

0:20:33.680 --> 0:20:37.000
<v Speaker 3>Kathy, I so appreciate you including me on this platform. Kathy,

0:20:37.040 --> 0:20:40.119
<v Speaker 3>would arcinvest founder CEO CIO.

0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:43.959
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:47.359
<v Speaker 1>Live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

0:20:47.400 --> 0:20:51.440
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app,

0:20:51.720 --> 0:21:03.280
<v Speaker 1>or wants us Live on YouTube.

0:21:03.960 --> 0:21:06.399
<v Speaker 3>All right, everybody, So a recent story from our pre

0:21:06.520 --> 0:21:08.800
<v Speaker 3>and on here at Bloomberg on how the demise of

0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:13.000
<v Speaker 3>San Francisco's has been greatly exaggerated. She talked about kind

0:21:13.000 --> 0:21:15.680
<v Speaker 3>of walking around and things weren't as bad as everybody's

0:21:15.680 --> 0:21:17.760
<v Speaker 3>been talking about. She also noted that in the twelve

0:21:17.800 --> 0:21:20.359
<v Speaker 3>months ending July twenty twenty three, the city actually gained

0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:23.240
<v Speaker 3>forty nine hundred residents after also seeing some slight growth

0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:25.359
<v Speaker 3>in the prior year, according to some new data that

0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:25.680
<v Speaker 3>was out.

0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:28.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, some actually good data though, was you know, it's

0:21:28.680 --> 0:21:32.040
<v Speaker 2>not just anecdotal, based on her experience there, believing in

0:21:32.040 --> 0:21:35.160
<v Speaker 2>this city. Our next guest, who acquired the Transamerica Pyramid

0:21:35.200 --> 0:21:37.760
<v Speaker 2>Center in San Francisco for six hundred and fifty million

0:21:37.800 --> 0:21:39.959
<v Speaker 2>dollars at the height of the pandemic. Back with us.

0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:42.679
<v Speaker 2>We got Michael Schave, chairman and CEO of Cheveaux, a

0:21:42.800 --> 0:21:46.480
<v Speaker 2>real estate owner, investor, and developer of unique and innovative

0:21:46.600 --> 0:21:49.400
<v Speaker 2>luxury and landmark properties. Michael, good to have you back

0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:51.359
<v Speaker 2>with us. How are you, thank you? Happy New Year,

0:21:51.600 --> 0:21:54.600
<v Speaker 2>Happy New Year. So let's take a step back and

0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:57.800
<v Speaker 2>just talk about your history in San Francisco and how

0:21:57.840 --> 0:22:00.399
<v Speaker 2>it came about that you found yourself at you know,

0:22:00.440 --> 0:22:04.000
<v Speaker 2>the height of the pandemic acquiring such an iconic building

0:22:04.040 --> 0:22:04.520
<v Speaker 2>in the city.

0:22:04.960 --> 0:22:08.240
<v Speaker 8>You know, since my business is really focused on owning,

0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:11.960
<v Speaker 8>operating super prime real estate, when the opportunity came about

0:22:11.960 --> 0:22:15.240
<v Speaker 8>to acquire the Pyramid, it was not really a matter

0:22:15.280 --> 0:22:18.320
<v Speaker 8>of time having these type of opportunities at once in

0:22:18.320 --> 0:22:21.000
<v Speaker 8>a lifetime. I'm the second owner of the property, after

0:22:21.760 --> 0:22:24.159
<v Speaker 8>the original owner of trans America, which built the building

0:22:24.160 --> 0:22:28.199
<v Speaker 8>as their headquarters. But when you buy building for you know,

0:22:28.320 --> 0:22:30.720
<v Speaker 8>fifty years or not for five years, you're not really

0:22:30.800 --> 0:22:32.720
<v Speaker 8>concerned about the little bumps in the market. You know.

0:22:32.760 --> 0:22:35.440
<v Speaker 8>Everybody sees black when when it's dark, and they see

0:22:35.520 --> 0:22:37.640
<v Speaker 8>light when it's light, and that's really not the time

0:22:37.720 --> 0:22:41.440
<v Speaker 8>to buy real estate. I took a quite a large bed,

0:22:41.560 --> 0:22:44.800
<v Speaker 8>not only on San Francisco, San Francisco, Chicago, Miami, LA.

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:47.080
<v Speaker 8>All through COVID. We bought around five billion dollars of

0:22:47.119 --> 0:22:50.080
<v Speaker 8>real estate through COVID and a lot of office buildings went.

0:22:50.560 --> 0:22:52.960
<v Speaker 8>There was a notion that people are never going to

0:22:52.960 --> 0:22:55.359
<v Speaker 8>come back to work. Obviously, that was another demise that

0:22:55.480 --> 0:22:56.320
<v Speaker 8>was well, it was so.

0:22:56.440 --> 0:22:58.520
<v Speaker 3>Confident that you thought, well, you know what, that's not

0:22:58.640 --> 0:23:00.800
<v Speaker 3>exactly going to happen. Or is the case that you

0:23:00.880 --> 0:23:03.679
<v Speaker 3>just bought top tier properties that you know that for

0:23:03.720 --> 0:23:06.000
<v Speaker 3>the folks who were coming back to work, that's where

0:23:06.000 --> 0:23:07.000
<v Speaker 3>they were going to want to be.

0:23:07.160 --> 0:23:09.480
<v Speaker 8>I think you hit you hit both nails on the head.

0:23:09.480 --> 0:23:12.359
<v Speaker 8>But the first notion is that that people are not

0:23:12.520 --> 0:23:15.760
<v Speaker 8>meant to be alone. When you walk here to the

0:23:15.800 --> 0:23:18.920
<v Speaker 8>Bloomberg's offices, I mean pretty cool stuff, right, cool stuff,

0:23:18.920 --> 0:23:21.240
<v Speaker 8>and everybody's together, and everybody's sitting together and want to

0:23:21.240 --> 0:23:23.840
<v Speaker 8>be together. The idea of working from home in your

0:23:23.840 --> 0:23:27.639
<v Speaker 8>pajamas on zoom is not sustainable, and that was that

0:23:27.720 --> 0:23:32.000
<v Speaker 8>was my initial bet. The San Francisco idea was again

0:23:32.320 --> 0:23:35.119
<v Speaker 8>a city that took a big hit through COVID because

0:23:35.119 --> 0:23:38.360
<v Speaker 8>of you know, tech issues that these are the first

0:23:38.440 --> 0:23:41.040
<v Speaker 8>companies that work from home. But in San Francisco is

0:23:41.119 --> 0:23:45.520
<v Speaker 8>a resilient city. It's a city that constantly reinvents itself

0:23:45.520 --> 0:23:47.760
<v Speaker 8>and the Boom and AI right now is unbelievable.

0:23:47.800 --> 0:23:49.240
<v Speaker 3>It's one you know, one thing I was gonna think about,

0:23:49.280 --> 0:23:50.720
<v Speaker 3>tim because I know we've had a lot of conversations

0:23:50.760 --> 0:23:53.160
<v Speaker 3>about work from home. If you talk to a lot

0:23:53.200 --> 0:23:56.800
<v Speaker 3>of the West Coast tech companies, they're like, we were

0:23:56.800 --> 0:23:59.600
<v Speaker 3>already working from home. We were already flexible with how

0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:03.000
<v Speaker 3>we were. So I almost wonder that maybe the impact

0:24:03.040 --> 0:24:05.639
<v Speaker 3>wasn't going to be as strong. I don't know.

0:24:06.440 --> 0:24:09.320
<v Speaker 8>Again, there was there was a mental impact because it

0:24:09.359 --> 0:24:11.159
<v Speaker 8>was it became not just a tech thing. It was

0:24:11.840 --> 0:24:14.520
<v Speaker 8>there was a there was a conversation that offices is

0:24:14.560 --> 0:24:18.200
<v Speaker 8>absolute right, and and that obviously is was and ended

0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:20.960
<v Speaker 8>up being nonsense. And we're seeing today, I mean, our

0:24:21.040 --> 0:24:24.080
<v Speaker 8>New York offices on Fifth Avenue are fully occupied. The

0:24:24.119 --> 0:24:26.840
<v Speaker 8>Pyramid is renting at two and a half times the

0:24:26.880 --> 0:24:29.600
<v Speaker 8>rent that it rented pre COVID. So not only people

0:24:29.640 --> 0:24:32.639
<v Speaker 8>are coming back, you know, we've obviously were just completing

0:24:32.680 --> 0:24:34.680
<v Speaker 8>a four hundred million dollars renovation there.

0:24:34.720 --> 0:24:35.480
<v Speaker 6>Who is coming back?

0:24:35.520 --> 0:24:41.080
<v Speaker 8>What type of tenants, VC's financial services, law firms. You're

0:24:41.080 --> 0:24:44.239
<v Speaker 8>seeing really the gamut, but the pyramids specifically, these are

0:24:44.320 --> 0:24:46.359
<v Speaker 8>leaders of the industry, right, It's a building that was

0:24:46.400 --> 0:24:50.000
<v Speaker 8>built for for kind of built for the future, right,

0:24:50.680 --> 0:24:52.600
<v Speaker 8>and that that's the type of tenants that that we're

0:24:52.600 --> 0:24:55.560
<v Speaker 8>getting there. But it's also now become the the you know,

0:24:55.600 --> 0:24:58.920
<v Speaker 8>the center of San Francisco. This is what San Francisco

0:24:58.960 --> 0:25:00.479
<v Speaker 8>believes is going to be the next thing that's going

0:25:00.520 --> 0:25:03.480
<v Speaker 8>to rejuvenate downtown. And when you walk the streets, I

0:25:03.480 --> 0:25:05.840
<v Speaker 8>believe you were saying, you walk the streets of San Francisco,

0:25:06.200 --> 0:25:08.040
<v Speaker 8>it feels great. You feel the energy. I just came

0:25:08.080 --> 0:25:09.960
<v Speaker 8>back a week and a half ago. You feel the

0:25:10.040 --> 0:25:12.399
<v Speaker 8>energy on the street. That's something that obviously, through COVID

0:25:12.680 --> 0:25:13.280
<v Speaker 8>didn't exist.

0:25:13.440 --> 0:25:16.160
<v Speaker 2>Where in your portfolio around the country, are you seeing

0:25:16.200 --> 0:25:17.640
<v Speaker 2>the highest vacancy.

0:25:17.200 --> 0:25:22.800
<v Speaker 8>Rates again, it's it's a it's a it's not a

0:25:22.800 --> 0:25:25.639
<v Speaker 8>fair question because we have really high occumvicies because we

0:25:25.720 --> 0:25:29.800
<v Speaker 8>only own trophy acids, and the trophy acid category, you know,

0:25:29.880 --> 0:25:31.639
<v Speaker 8>vacancy rates are quite low. I mean, if you look

0:25:31.640 --> 0:25:35.440
<v Speaker 8>at San Francisco alone, right, vacancy rates and in trophy

0:25:35.680 --> 0:25:38.159
<v Speaker 8>office buildings are seven percent, while the entire market is

0:25:38.560 --> 0:25:39.280
<v Speaker 8>in the thirties.

0:25:39.760 --> 0:25:43.119
<v Speaker 2>So in New York has similar issues with men and

0:25:43.200 --> 0:25:45.000
<v Speaker 2>Marst buildings, every mark and I think I I.

0:25:45.200 --> 0:25:46.919
<v Speaker 8>You know, when we spoke last I said, you know,

0:25:46.920 --> 0:25:52.000
<v Speaker 8>there's this notion of converting, converting bad office buildings to

0:25:52.000 --> 0:25:55.040
<v Speaker 8>to residences. It's like taking you know, I remember I

0:25:55.040 --> 0:25:57.280
<v Speaker 8>told you it's like taking bad milk and making milkshake

0:25:57.320 --> 0:25:59.240
<v Speaker 8>out of it. It's still going to be sour milkshake.

0:25:59.280 --> 0:25:59.959
<v Speaker 8>It's never gonna work.

0:26:00.440 --> 0:26:03.600
<v Speaker 2>So what makes an office good in twenty twenty four,

0:26:03.840 --> 0:26:07.240
<v Speaker 2>Because it's not the world of twenty nineteen anymore, there

0:26:07.320 --> 0:26:09.760
<v Speaker 2>is this hybrid work environment. Even if you have a

0:26:09.800 --> 0:26:12.280
<v Speaker 2>return to the office, you're still doing a lot of zooms,

0:26:12.280 --> 0:26:15.119
<v Speaker 2>you're still doing a lot of teleconferencing. Not everybody's going

0:26:15.160 --> 0:26:17.440
<v Speaker 2>to be in your meeting. What's different about an office

0:26:17.480 --> 0:26:18.640
<v Speaker 2>space in twenty twenty four.

0:26:19.240 --> 0:26:21.760
<v Speaker 8>Let's start by the fact that you're asking the question

0:26:21.960 --> 0:26:24.040
<v Speaker 8>that's already what's different. The difference is that now we're

0:26:24.040 --> 0:26:27.560
<v Speaker 8>actually thinking about our office. When you know, five years ago,

0:26:27.640 --> 0:26:31.400
<v Speaker 8>before COVID, nobody would never ask me, what's the new

0:26:31.400 --> 0:26:33.399
<v Speaker 8>thing about office? Why do people come to work? It

0:26:33.480 --> 0:26:35.920
<v Speaker 8>was just natural. Let's put people like like, you know,

0:26:36.320 --> 0:26:38.199
<v Speaker 8>like a little fish in a cubicle, and that was

0:26:38.200 --> 0:26:41.760
<v Speaker 8>basically Now we understand the same thing that we've been

0:26:41.760 --> 0:26:44.439
<v Speaker 8>doing in the residential side and the commercial side that

0:26:44.480 --> 0:26:49.160
<v Speaker 8>people actually care about where they work. Your lifestyle at

0:26:49.160 --> 0:26:52.440
<v Speaker 8>your office shouldn't be worse than it is at your home.

0:26:52.560 --> 0:26:56.040
<v Speaker 8>That's kind of what we've been doing. So what we've

0:26:56.119 --> 0:26:59.240
<v Speaker 8>been focused on doing over the last decade is really

0:26:59.280 --> 0:27:02.399
<v Speaker 8>transforming the office space to be as similar as it

0:27:02.440 --> 0:27:04.840
<v Speaker 8>can to your home environment as far as services, as

0:27:04.840 --> 0:27:07.520
<v Speaker 8>far as you know in the environment, the air, the luxury,

0:27:07.560 --> 0:27:10.280
<v Speaker 8>the services. If you again, your office is a great

0:27:10.320 --> 0:27:12.879
<v Speaker 8>example because it's where people come to collaborate. So you

0:27:12.960 --> 0:27:15.879
<v Speaker 8>have the spaces where people can collaborate, open space, you

0:27:15.920 --> 0:27:18.520
<v Speaker 8>have the closed offices where they consume. But there these

0:27:18.560 --> 0:27:21.920
<v Speaker 8>are flexible spaces. It's not one size fits all, which

0:27:22.080 --> 0:27:24.240
<v Speaker 8>was the traditional office kind of pre COVID.

0:27:24.680 --> 0:27:26.480
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Michael, one thing I wonder do you think we

0:27:26.560 --> 0:27:28.399
<v Speaker 3>talk a lot about the rate environment. Obviously, what the

0:27:28.400 --> 0:27:32.520
<v Speaker 3>Fed's gonna do, What are your expectations in terms of rates?

0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:36.359
<v Speaker 3>And obviously a lower rate environment is good for folks

0:27:36.520 --> 0:27:39.840
<v Speaker 3>in the real estate world. So how are you thinking

0:27:39.840 --> 0:27:41.119
<v Speaker 3>about it and how it might shape some of the

0:27:41.160 --> 0:27:43.480
<v Speaker 3>activities you do here in twenty twenty.

0:27:43.200 --> 0:27:46.800
<v Speaker 8>Four, So again I think that, as some of your

0:27:46.840 --> 0:27:49.280
<v Speaker 8>previous speakers said before, I think there's obviously an expectation

0:27:49.359 --> 0:27:52.760
<v Speaker 8>that that rates are going to go down. I'm looking

0:27:52.800 --> 0:27:55.680
<v Speaker 8>for the crystal ball here at the Bloomberg headquarters of

0:27:55.880 --> 0:27:57.120
<v Speaker 8>how much they're going to go down.

0:27:57.440 --> 0:27:58.760
<v Speaker 2>Show me where you find the crystal ball.

0:27:58.760 --> 0:27:59.040
<v Speaker 8>I don't know.

0:27:59.080 --> 0:28:02.639
<v Speaker 3>I'm asking you in this way slept away a central

0:28:02.640 --> 0:28:03.760
<v Speaker 3>bank safe.

0:28:04.280 --> 0:28:07.119
<v Speaker 8>But but I think that that there's definitely a consensus

0:28:07.119 --> 0:28:08.800
<v Speaker 8>that they are going to go down. How much we

0:28:08.840 --> 0:28:09.960
<v Speaker 8>don't We don't know yet.

0:28:10.160 --> 0:28:12.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, but that's shape what you do this year.

0:28:13.280 --> 0:28:15.439
<v Speaker 8>Well, look, I think from from our point of view,

0:28:15.520 --> 0:28:18.199
<v Speaker 8>because you know we part of what we do is

0:28:18.359 --> 0:28:20.400
<v Speaker 8>we're partners with with a lot of the German state

0:28:20.440 --> 0:28:23.400
<v Speaker 8>pension fund insurance companies. Yeah, and we buy long term

0:28:23.480 --> 0:28:25.840
<v Speaker 8>real estate. We'll buy in cash, we'll buy with debt.

0:28:25.880 --> 0:28:28.560
<v Speaker 8>Obviously with that would rather buy real estate with debt

0:28:28.560 --> 0:28:31.640
<v Speaker 8>if if the debt markets allow it. But were first

0:28:31.680 --> 0:28:35.320
<v Speaker 8>and foremost focused on finding the right trophy assets. So

0:28:35.560 --> 0:28:37.800
<v Speaker 8>that's why so when I bought the Trans America Pyramid,

0:28:37.920 --> 0:28:40.440
<v Speaker 8>it was you know, in the midst of COVID, we

0:28:40.520 --> 0:28:43.000
<v Speaker 8>still ended up buying it. So so interest rates are

0:28:43.040 --> 0:28:45.640
<v Speaker 8>going to you know, are going to move the market right,

0:28:45.680 --> 0:28:47.440
<v Speaker 8>and I think what the more important thing is that

0:28:47.440 --> 0:28:50.360
<v Speaker 8>they're going to open the debt markets which were fairly

0:28:50.560 --> 0:28:53.680
<v Speaker 8>you know, static over the last three years.

0:28:53.800 --> 0:28:55.280
<v Speaker 3>Us talk to us about New York. You've got a

0:28:55.280 --> 0:28:58.120
<v Speaker 3>property right six eighty fifth Fifth Avenue here in New York.

0:28:59.280 --> 0:29:02.440
<v Speaker 8>We got so in New York again, like in most markets,

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:06.200
<v Speaker 8>we developed high end residential, the Mandarin Oriental Residences that

0:29:06.360 --> 0:29:08.800
<v Speaker 8>was just completed. We just opened an amazing private restaurant

0:29:08.840 --> 0:29:11.360
<v Speaker 8>with Danielle Blued. There lots of fun at the rooftop

0:29:11.440 --> 0:29:16.040
<v Speaker 8>loft Danielle. He just opened Cafe Blued, which is also amazing.

0:29:16.080 --> 0:29:19.280
<v Speaker 8>We're opening one in Beverly Hills with him. So that

0:29:19.640 --> 0:29:22.480
<v Speaker 8>property is really geared to making people's lives better. What

0:29:22.520 --> 0:29:25.160
<v Speaker 8>does that mean? You're buying an apartment at the Manden

0:29:25.240 --> 0:29:28.280
<v Speaker 8>Residences and you don't even bring your toothbrush because Mandarin

0:29:28.280 --> 0:29:30.760
<v Speaker 8>will give you everything from your flippers, from your slippers

0:29:30.760 --> 0:29:33.000
<v Speaker 8>to the rope to the toothbrush. And then we have our

0:29:33.040 --> 0:29:36.280
<v Speaker 8>office portfolio here. You know, we own seven eleven Fifth Avenue.

0:29:36.280 --> 0:29:39.480
<v Speaker 8>We own the Amanta New York five point thirty Broadway

0:29:39.920 --> 0:29:42.920
<v Speaker 8>office buildings that we have, you know, severely kind of

0:29:43.080 --> 0:29:48.120
<v Speaker 8>upgraded and seven eleven Fifth Avenue again fully occupied building today.

0:29:48.560 --> 0:29:51.760
<v Speaker 8>Cork Club just came in there, Raffles just came in there.

0:29:51.760 --> 0:29:54.720
<v Speaker 8>So really, you know, Alan and Company, one of one

0:29:54.720 --> 0:29:58.120
<v Speaker 8>of the folks in your world, are headquartered there. So

0:29:58.480 --> 0:30:01.560
<v Speaker 8>we've created really an environment of a high end boutique

0:30:01.560 --> 0:30:04.640
<v Speaker 8>office building designed by Peter Reno, which is fully occupied

0:30:04.680 --> 0:30:07.760
<v Speaker 8>in the market that again is not on averages, is

0:30:07.760 --> 0:30:09.360
<v Speaker 8>not showing those returns.

0:30:09.520 --> 0:30:11.080
<v Speaker 3>Let's crease something in my producer is going to have

0:30:11.080 --> 0:30:13.120
<v Speaker 3>a heart attack. But you got fifteen twenty seconds. Is

0:30:13.160 --> 0:30:18.200
<v Speaker 3>the idea of transforming office into residential? Can it be done?

0:30:18.400 --> 0:30:21.360
<v Speaker 8>Or is that like very very selective. It has to

0:30:21.360 --> 0:30:23.040
<v Speaker 8>have the building has to have the right bones, in

0:30:23.080 --> 0:30:25.640
<v Speaker 8>the right location, the right ceiling heights, in the right windows.

0:30:25.800 --> 0:30:27.520
<v Speaker 3>You were quick and you save Paul's heart.

0:30:27.520 --> 0:30:28.200
<v Speaker 6>Thank you so much.

0:30:28.320 --> 0:30:31.479
<v Speaker 3>Michael Schaveau, Chairman and CEO of Chaveau real Estate, owner, investor,

0:30:31.520 --> 0:30:34.840
<v Speaker 3>developer of innovative, luxury.

0:30:34.400 --> 0:30:35.400
<v Speaker 9>And landmark properties.

0:30:35.440 --> 0:30:38.280
<v Speaker 3>Joining us right here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio.

0:30:38.920 --> 0:30:40.040
<v Speaker 6>This is Bloemoo.

0:30:43.240 --> 0:30:49.280
<v Speaker 1>Marco a journal Now about you let me drive, Oh no, no, no,

0:30:49.200 --> 0:30:53.960
<v Speaker 1>no drive, honey, please, I'll do the gravel.

0:30:54.760 --> 0:30:55.920
<v Speaker 3>Great, I want to drive.

0:30:58.160 --> 0:30:59.040
<v Speaker 8>It's a good question.

0:31:02.880 --> 0:31:06.120
<v Speaker 1>This is the Drive to the Clothes dot com. Think

0:31:06.200 --> 0:31:09.240
<v Speaker 1>well by run Janda Don on Bloomberg Radio.

0:31:09.440 --> 0:31:10.080
<v Speaker 6>All right, everybody.

0:31:10.160 --> 0:31:12.920
<v Speaker 3>Something we talked about at the end of twenty twenty

0:31:13.000 --> 0:31:16.040
<v Speaker 3>three the rally in emerging markets ex China. The group

0:31:16.160 --> 0:31:18.880
<v Speaker 3>up seventeen percent in twenty twenty three at in China,

0:31:18.960 --> 0:31:22.960
<v Speaker 3>and the game was only seven percent as measure measured

0:31:23.160 --> 0:31:26.560
<v Speaker 3>excuse me, by the MSCI indexes. So it's interesting. We

0:31:26.680 --> 0:31:30.080
<v Speaker 3>know China was certainly a drag on the global economy

0:31:30.200 --> 0:31:32.280
<v Speaker 3>and also certainly on the investment landscape.

0:31:32.360 --> 0:31:34.160
<v Speaker 2>Well, A Drive to the closed guest has certainly has

0:31:34.200 --> 0:31:38.360
<v Speaker 2>some thoughts on emerging markets. Alison Shimada is senior portfolio

0:31:38.400 --> 0:31:40.920
<v Speaker 2>manager and head of Total Emerging Markets team at all

0:31:40.960 --> 0:31:45.479
<v Speaker 2>Spring Global Investments. Alison joins us on Zoom from San Francisco. Allison,

0:31:45.520 --> 0:31:49.240
<v Speaker 2>good to have you with us this afternoon. As Carol noted,

0:31:49.320 --> 0:31:53.520
<v Speaker 2>not all emerging markets are created equal. How's the outlook

0:31:53.600 --> 0:31:56.240
<v Speaker 2>for the category in twenty four and where do you

0:31:56.280 --> 0:31:59.040
<v Speaker 2>think investors this year specifically should be putting their money?

0:32:00.720 --> 0:32:03.560
<v Speaker 9>Well, thank you, Carolyn. Sev for having me. I think

0:32:03.600 --> 0:32:07.320
<v Speaker 9>there are very solid opportunities in the e M. I

0:32:07.400 --> 0:32:11.400
<v Speaker 9>think it has, you know, really been ignored for quite

0:32:11.480 --> 0:32:14.720
<v Speaker 9>some time, and I think in three respects. Number one

0:32:14.840 --> 0:32:18.880
<v Speaker 9>is that it's somewhat under owned by investors globally. Number two,

0:32:18.880 --> 0:32:23.280
<v Speaker 9>it's underappreciated for all the opportunities we see in individual countries.

0:32:23.920 --> 0:32:27.160
<v Speaker 9>And number three is that's really undervalued versus particularly the

0:32:27.360 --> 0:32:30.760
<v Speaker 9>US SO only selling it about eleven point seven times

0:32:30.840 --> 0:32:33.240
<v Speaker 9>PE and one point six times price to book. So

0:32:33.760 --> 0:32:36.400
<v Speaker 9>you know, we see opportunities here at the beginning of

0:32:36.480 --> 0:32:40.000
<v Speaker 9>the year. You know, we particularly look at growth and income,

0:32:40.400 --> 0:32:42.640
<v Speaker 9>and we see a lot of dividends that can be paid.

0:32:42.760 --> 0:32:46.040
<v Speaker 9>We see strong companies in terms of the areas we're

0:32:46.080 --> 0:32:51.719
<v Speaker 9>focusing on. Really, as you mentioned countries ex China are

0:32:51.840 --> 0:32:58.400
<v Speaker 9>interesting to US, India, Brazil, South Korea, Taiwan, there are

0:32:58.400 --> 0:33:00.560
<v Speaker 9>a lot of quite a few of the larger companies

0:33:00.640 --> 0:33:01.520
<v Speaker 9>are quite promising.

0:33:01.600 --> 0:33:02.120
<v Speaker 5>Is hey.

0:33:02.160 --> 0:33:03.960
<v Speaker 3>One thing I do want to ask you, and we

0:33:04.040 --> 0:33:07.600
<v Speaker 3>appreciate you laying out where you do find interesting opportunities,

0:33:07.640 --> 0:33:09.920
<v Speaker 3>but I do want to talk about China because our

0:33:10.000 --> 0:33:12.280
<v Speaker 3>folks and our team have been talking about how China

0:33:12.360 --> 0:33:14.360
<v Speaker 3>is the contrarian trade of twenty twenty four. I mean

0:33:14.680 --> 0:33:17.760
<v Speaker 3>people don't like it. You know, when we talk to people,

0:33:17.800 --> 0:33:19.640
<v Speaker 3>they're like, no, we don't want to commit new money.

0:33:19.680 --> 0:33:23.080
<v Speaker 3>And to me, you know, when everybody's running from something

0:33:23.520 --> 0:33:26.840
<v Speaker 3>and something's been an area of the investment landscape, global

0:33:26.840 --> 0:33:29.440
<v Speaker 3>investment landscape has been beat up, to me, maybe there

0:33:29.520 --> 0:33:31.040
<v Speaker 3>is some opportunity then, so.

0:33:32.520 --> 0:33:36.480
<v Speaker 9>I totally agree with you. Yeah, no, that is absolutely true.

0:33:36.600 --> 0:33:39.800
<v Speaker 9>We have been investing in China for the better part

0:33:39.880 --> 0:33:42.960
<v Speaker 9>of twenty five years, many of us on this team

0:33:43.560 --> 0:33:46.200
<v Speaker 9>and have seen it since it opened. And you know,

0:33:46.320 --> 0:33:50.920
<v Speaker 9>I think this that there have been many crises in China. However,

0:33:51.200 --> 0:33:56.120
<v Speaker 9>I think that there is with selectivity and proper stock

0:33:56.240 --> 0:33:59.880
<v Speaker 9>selection and the history of understanding these companies and the policy,

0:34:00.400 --> 0:34:03.840
<v Speaker 9>one can properly invest in China. I don't think it's

0:34:03.920 --> 0:34:06.400
<v Speaker 9>to be entirely avoided, but I think you need to

0:34:06.440 --> 0:34:11.520
<v Speaker 9>be selective and until we understand the greater, the intermedia term,

0:34:11.600 --> 0:34:15.480
<v Speaker 9>the longer term objectives of the country, it is somewhat

0:34:15.520 --> 0:34:19.480
<v Speaker 9>of a trading opportunity, but we certainly have we are

0:34:19.600 --> 0:34:22.880
<v Speaker 9>underway China, but we do have quite a few holdings

0:34:23.000 --> 0:34:26.719
<v Speaker 9>in China. And not only in the industrial space, but

0:34:26.800 --> 0:34:30.239
<v Speaker 9>in the financial space and somewhat limited to the in

0:34:30.320 --> 0:34:31.560
<v Speaker 9>the consumer space as well.

0:34:31.840 --> 0:34:35.160
<v Speaker 2>What do you think is the biggest risk in China

0:34:35.280 --> 0:34:37.719
<v Speaker 2>right now and do you think that the country can

0:34:37.800 --> 0:34:38.440
<v Speaker 2>get beyond that?

0:34:39.560 --> 0:34:39.759
<v Speaker 5>Yeah.

0:34:40.080 --> 0:34:42.120
<v Speaker 9>I think that one of the biggest risks is just

0:34:42.239 --> 0:34:45.520
<v Speaker 9>not doing enough and not staying the course in terms

0:34:45.560 --> 0:34:48.880
<v Speaker 9>of reopening and supporting industry.

0:34:48.960 --> 0:34:50.880
<v Speaker 2>Do you mean not doing enough in terms of government support?

0:34:51.800 --> 0:34:54.400
<v Speaker 9>Yeah. I think that they have done some policy that

0:34:54.520 --> 0:34:57.520
<v Speaker 9>has been supportive, but it's been here and there, unlike

0:34:57.600 --> 0:35:01.560
<v Speaker 9>the US with the inflation reduct very early on. I

0:35:01.600 --> 0:35:04.799
<v Speaker 9>think that was a very effective policy because we got

0:35:04.880 --> 0:35:07.480
<v Speaker 9>it out there, started working on it, and now you

0:35:07.560 --> 0:35:10.960
<v Speaker 9>see some very positive effects of that. I think China

0:35:11.480 --> 0:35:14.480
<v Speaker 9>has hesitated a bit on policy and had hoped that

0:35:14.560 --> 0:35:18.000
<v Speaker 9>they could just you know, make it through the difficulties

0:35:18.040 --> 0:35:21.480
<v Speaker 9>of the property industry. But it's a very large scale

0:35:21.640 --> 0:35:23.840
<v Speaker 9>and I think that that has to be addressed, and

0:35:24.360 --> 0:35:27.839
<v Speaker 9>I think that the markets are lacking confidence. It's really

0:35:27.880 --> 0:35:31.880
<v Speaker 9>a sentiment issue. I think that the overall the country

0:35:32.000 --> 0:35:36.640
<v Speaker 9>is okay. Policy worth regards to property will take some time.

0:35:36.960 --> 0:35:38.640
<v Speaker 9>It's just it's going to take a lot of time.

0:35:38.719 --> 0:35:40.800
<v Speaker 2>Do you think we get back to a Do we

0:35:40.840 --> 0:35:42.960
<v Speaker 2>get to a point where, I mean, the S and

0:35:43.000 --> 0:35:45.840
<v Speaker 2>P five hundred has been an incredible force over the

0:35:45.960 --> 0:35:46.759
<v Speaker 2>last decade or so?

0:35:47.000 --> 0:35:47.919
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely? Yeah.

0:35:48.200 --> 0:35:50.879
<v Speaker 2>Do we get to a point where emerging markets start

0:35:50.920 --> 0:35:52.960
<v Speaker 2>to hold a candle? I mean, even at seventeen percent,

0:35:53.960 --> 0:35:57.120
<v Speaker 2>if you exclude China, it underperformed. Emerging markets underperformed the

0:35:57.200 --> 0:36:00.960
<v Speaker 2>S and P five hundred last year. Again, do we

0:36:01.040 --> 0:36:05.360
<v Speaker 2>get to a point where the emerging markets as a

0:36:05.400 --> 0:36:08.040
<v Speaker 2>whole outperform large caps in the US?

0:36:10.480 --> 0:36:12.959
<v Speaker 9>I really hope so in over the next few years.

0:36:13.040 --> 0:36:15.000
<v Speaker 9>And the reason I think so is for the three

0:36:15.080 --> 0:36:18.279
<v Speaker 9>reasons that I stated earlier on. I do think that

0:36:18.440 --> 0:36:23.120
<v Speaker 9>the forty five percent discount of emerging markets overall to

0:36:23.239 --> 0:36:26.440
<v Speaker 9>DM is too big, and you know, everything is like

0:36:26.480 --> 0:36:28.759
<v Speaker 9>a rubber band, it eventually kind of goes back the

0:36:28.880 --> 0:36:32.200
<v Speaker 9>other direction. I think it's purely a sentiment issue. There's

0:36:32.239 --> 0:36:35.200
<v Speaker 9>a very strong home market bias on the US. People

0:36:35.280 --> 0:36:38.400
<v Speaker 9>do not want to give up on it despite valuations

0:36:38.480 --> 0:36:41.239
<v Speaker 9>high valuations, and they're just hesitant to go overseas. But

0:36:41.400 --> 0:36:44.520
<v Speaker 9>I think if the dollar starts to roll over, which

0:36:44.560 --> 0:36:46.800
<v Speaker 9>I think, you know, it peaks in October, right, that

0:36:47.160 --> 0:36:49.279
<v Speaker 9>that's going to be a count you know that is

0:36:49.320 --> 0:36:52.239
<v Speaker 9>going to the minute the dollar rolls over, it's going

0:36:52.280 --> 0:36:55.160
<v Speaker 9>to flash a green sign and people will have to

0:36:55.280 --> 0:36:59.800
<v Speaker 9>look for other forms of returns in other places. And

0:37:00.040 --> 0:37:02.839
<v Speaker 9>it's not necessarily China, but it could be in other

0:37:02.960 --> 0:37:04.879
<v Speaker 9>countries in em Hey.

0:37:04.840 --> 0:37:07.320
<v Speaker 3>Listen, just get about a minute left and you actually

0:37:07.320 --> 0:37:10.600
<v Speaker 3>had you know, shared with our producer Paul some names

0:37:10.600 --> 0:37:14.239
<v Speaker 3>that you find interesting. Just pick one that you think investors,

0:37:14.520 --> 0:37:16.120
<v Speaker 3>global investors should have on their radar.

0:37:17.200 --> 0:37:17.359
<v Speaker 5>Yeah.

0:37:17.400 --> 0:37:21.320
<v Speaker 9>I think Bijoj Auto is a very interesting name. It's India,

0:37:22.040 --> 0:37:25.400
<v Speaker 9>you know, the largest two wheeler and three wheeler producer

0:37:25.480 --> 0:37:28.520
<v Speaker 9>in India and they have had very strong earnings. It's

0:37:28.560 --> 0:37:31.879
<v Speaker 9>a great group, an industrial group bag and I think

0:37:32.040 --> 0:37:35.960
<v Speaker 9>that it's a play on the rural space in India

0:37:36.000 --> 0:37:38.360
<v Speaker 9>as well. But the overall economy of India is a

0:37:38.480 --> 0:37:42.520
<v Speaker 9>multi year growth story, as I think most investors understand now.

0:37:42.680 --> 0:37:46.000
<v Speaker 9>But we really see it as a very strong player

0:37:46.080 --> 0:37:48.120
<v Speaker 9>in the market and has a three percent divit in

0:37:48.239 --> 0:37:50.080
<v Speaker 9>yield as well, so we really.

0:37:50.000 --> 0:37:51.719
<v Speaker 3>We get to buy it in a fund, right because

0:37:51.719 --> 0:37:53.400
<v Speaker 3>there's no ADR here in the United States?

0:37:54.239 --> 0:37:57.400
<v Speaker 9>Correct? Correct? Yes, many of these names, and you know

0:37:57.560 --> 0:38:01.160
<v Speaker 9>it's true for India overall, right, a lot of have ADRs,

0:38:01.280 --> 0:38:03.800
<v Speaker 9>but there are some of the larger names, for instance,

0:38:03.840 --> 0:38:09.080
<v Speaker 9>the banks or the enterprise software enterprise hardware software companies

0:38:09.200 --> 0:38:12.120
<v Speaker 9>they do have they do have US listed.

0:38:12.560 --> 0:38:14.560
<v Speaker 3>Since it's refreshing to talk about emerging markets, I feel

0:38:14.600 --> 0:38:16.840
<v Speaker 3>like a few years back, and you know, whether it

0:38:16.880 --> 0:38:18.759
<v Speaker 3>was a Mark Mobis or somebody, you would just talk

0:38:18.800 --> 0:38:21.440
<v Speaker 3>about it constantly. It kind of took a back seat

0:38:21.480 --> 0:38:24.080
<v Speaker 3>as we've really focused only totally take some of the

0:38:24.200 --> 0:38:26.560
<v Speaker 3>runs right that we've seen in like US big caps

0:38:26.600 --> 0:38:30.080
<v Speaker 3>and the indexing. Allison Shamada, thank you so much, Senior

0:38:30.120 --> 0:38:32.719
<v Speaker 3>portfolio manager, head of the Total Emerging Markets team over

0:38:32.760 --> 0:38:35.480
<v Speaker 3>at all Spring Global Investments on zoom in San Francisco.

0:38:36.080 --> 0:38:40.680
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. I'll available on Apple, Spotify,

0:38:40.880 --> 0:38:44.560
<v Speaker 1>and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live weekday

0:38:44.560 --> 0:38:48.040
<v Speaker 1>afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

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<v Speaker 1>the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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<v Speaker 1>You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>and always on the Bloomberg jermatalone