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Speaker 1: Hello there, Happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast. As usual in the Trump era, there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of things happening, literally in the moment that

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Speaker 1: I'm choosing to record, which is late on a Tuesday

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Speaker 1: evening and at the same time, so you know, but

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Speaker 1: we're all sadly kind of used to this, but still

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of quick stuff I want to get to.

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Speaker 1: We got word that the Supreme Court was going to

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Speaker 1: expedite it's hearing on the legality of Trump's tariffs. Of

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Speaker 1: the Trump tariffs, we went deep on that issue, and

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Speaker 1: he gave a pretty good pathway to what happens to

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Speaker 1: the tariffs. If the courts rule them unconstitutional bottom line

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Speaker 1: spoiler alert, they're going to likely stay in place. It

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Speaker 1: may take it may be a bit more complicated how

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Speaker 1: they do it, It may be a bit more, may

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Speaker 1: take a lot more paperwork. The question I've always had

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Speaker 1: and I've been sharing with you guys, does it lead

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Speaker 1: to a vote in Congress? Is this something Democrats use

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Speaker 1: as leveraged during the shutdown to try to force a

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Speaker 1: vote on these things. It's certainly which potentially short circuit

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Speaker 1: a Supreme Court loss. What's interesting, according to the reporting

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Speaker 1: this happened, I happen to be on set on CNN

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Speaker 1: doing the Casey Hunt's show on the Arena. Casey Hunt,

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Speaker 1: former colleague of mine over at NBC, really like what

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Speaker 1: she's doing. They're really trying to be information and sort

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Speaker 1: of political reality first, not allowing partisans to hijack her program,

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Speaker 1: which I think is always difficult, particularly even in the

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Speaker 1: world of cable news these days. But she does a

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Speaker 1: terrific job of that. But it came in. And what

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Speaker 1: was interesting is, according to CNN reporter Joan Biscupik, it

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Speaker 1: was the Trump folks who wanted to Bush who was

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Speaker 1: pushing the Supreme Court to actually do this sooner rather

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Speaker 1: than later, which is mildly surprising to me because essentially Trump's,

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Speaker 1: you know, what Trump wants. What Trump is doing in

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Speaker 1: the argument he's been making about why his tariffs need

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Speaker 1: to stay in place, is basically said, well, it's too late.

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Speaker 1: I've already collected all this money and we've already used it.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna you know, this helps offset you know, the

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Speaker 1: hole and the deficit that he blew for the for

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Speaker 1: the tax cuts that he just did, and so he's

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Speaker 1: essentially trying to say, hey, it's too late to rule

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Speaker 1: these unconstitutionals. So the fact that it's expedited and the

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Speaker 1: fact that the Supreme Court wants to do this sooner. Look,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to overread these tea leaves,

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Speaker 1: but it offers a big, strong hint that it's possible,

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Speaker 1: you know, and that a portion of these are going

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Speaker 1: to be deemed unconstitutional in some form or another. And

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Speaker 1: the sooner you do it, the easier it is to

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Speaker 1: unwind some of them. But I'll be honest. When I

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Speaker 1: first heard it and I thought about this, and I

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Speaker 1: thought about the first thing that came to my head

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Speaker 1: was Obamacare and the ruling back when a lot of

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Speaker 1: conservatives thought that the right leaning Supreme Court would rule

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Speaker 1: Obamacare unconstitutional using the mandate as and that it would

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Speaker 1: send everything back to the drawing board. And it was

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Speaker 1: the first time we'd seen John Roberts sort of cross

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Speaker 1: the conservative aisle, if you will, right, and he ended

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Speaker 1: up with at the time the four liberals deeming Obamacare constitutional,

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Speaker 1: noting that the mandate essentially was the equivalent of attacks.

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Speaker 1: The point being is, if you look, if you take

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Speaker 1: that decision by Roberts on the Obamacare back then, and

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Speaker 1: then you start to look at it through the prism

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Speaker 1: of how he's of how he's managed a lot of

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Speaker 1: sort of politically sensitive issues that have come before the court.

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Speaker 1: He finds a way to not upset them those in

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Speaker 1: power too much. He doesn't want to upend things. He

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Speaker 1: sees it is. It's like he wants to rule within

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Speaker 1: this very narrow right. They've created very narrow rulings at

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Speaker 1: times in order to try to get as big of

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Speaker 1: you know, get six three and seven two's rather than

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Speaker 1: too many five fours. So he'll sometimes narrow things and

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Speaker 1: narrow the question that the court is dealing with. But

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Speaker 1: I can't help but assume that he is he is

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Speaker 1: really not wanted to test whether Trump would ignore court rulings.

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Speaker 1: Hasn't wanted to have the judiciary be the spark for

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Speaker 1: a constitutional crisis. We can look if something's unconstitutional, just

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Speaker 1: rip off the band aid, as my attitude. But we

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Speaker 1: know that if you look at the pattern of the

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Speaker 1: Roberts Court, he's always tried to find a way not

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Speaker 1: to upend things too much. So you know that's why

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Speaker 1: I would say, be careful reading the Tea Leaves, and

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Speaker 1: I think the bottom line is these tariffs aren't going

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Speaker 1: to go away. How they stay on, what's the legal

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Speaker 1: format that's done it is? Do they need another vote

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Speaker 1: in Congress? Does he use other parts of the law

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Speaker 1: to implement some of these tariffs. That's the beauty of

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Speaker 1: the interview I have today with Bruce Melman. He will

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Speaker 1: tell you all the different ways that these still can

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Speaker 1: be implemented. And it's pretty clear this is still likely

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Speaker 1: more harmful to the economy, likely to be inflationary. If

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Speaker 1: you're wondering about the impact of the revised jobs numbers

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Speaker 1: and what this means to the health of the economy. Well,

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Speaker 1: the fact that there's sort of too quick reactions to that,

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Speaker 1: right one is it turns out the vibes were right.

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Speaker 1: If you recall, right we had there was during the

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Speaker 1: presidential campaign last year. You had a lot of Biden

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Speaker 1: Harris defenders saying, hey, no, the economy is better than

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Speaker 1: you say. It's the media spinning it or it's in

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Speaker 1: You had people pushing back, well, the vibes are negative.

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Speaker 1: The data may say that the economy is healthy and growing,

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Speaker 1: but boy, the vibes are off here, right, And vibes

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Speaker 1: became a thing and all this stuff. Well, guess what

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Speaker 1: when it comes to the perception of the economy. Perception

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Speaker 1: is the reality. You know, if people feel uneasy about

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Speaker 1: the economy, they pull back. And people were feeling uneasy

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Speaker 1: about the economy, and it turns out they were pulling back.

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Speaker 1: Businesses weren't hiring in as big as numbers as it

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Speaker 1: turned out to be. Inflation was having a bigger impact

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Speaker 1: on people's decisions. The housing, the short supply of housing

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Speaker 1: was having and now you throw in two more. So

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Speaker 1: there's already these headwinds. This slowdown was happening as Trump

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Speaker 1: takes over, and then he adds two giant if you

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Speaker 1: want to call him headwinds. It's like almost like he

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Speaker 1: turns on a fan and like accelerated these headwinds into

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Speaker 1: the economy. One is tariffs, which creates a massive rise

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Speaker 1: and prices on many consumer goods. And we're starting to

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Speaker 1: see more of more of that creep in exactly when

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Speaker 1: economists said it would, and we're only going to get

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Speaker 1: more of it, not less of it, over the next

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Speaker 1: few months. By the way, keep track of the price

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Speaker 1: of coffee. Coffee could be the gas prices of tariffs,

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Speaker 1: meaning that's what the biggest chunk of people will notice

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Speaker 1: this slow increase in the cost of coffee because we

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Speaker 1: have to import it all and it's been tariffed up

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Speaker 1: that you know what, especially if you like your coffee

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Speaker 1: beans from Brazil, which of course we know the president

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Speaker 1: has been punishing Brazil over over what they've done with

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Speaker 1: their internal political situation involving the attempted kup by former

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Speaker 1: president Bolsnaro. So that's my monitor there. Keep keep keep

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Speaker 1: keep track of that. I think that's the that's going

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Speaker 1: to be. If eggs were sort of the symbol of

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Speaker 1: the uncomfortable economy that many voters didn't like the price

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Speaker 1: of eggs being sort of the symbol, I think the

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Speaker 1: price of coffee is going to be the symbol. And

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Speaker 1: the tariffs and then of course the other what I

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Speaker 1: guess you could call it an accelerant to the headwinds

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Speaker 1: that we were already facing, is the deportations. Right, this

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Speaker 1: has caused all sorts of labor shortages in the construction market.

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Speaker 1: You know, we're not going to have a housing boom

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Speaker 1: even if they lower rates, because we don't have the

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Speaker 1: workers to build the housing that we need fast enough,

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Speaker 1: so you're still going to have I think this tight

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Speaker 1: labor supply. And look, all of this is you know,

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Speaker 1: the market seem to be happy about this on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: and it's likely because they think, oh good, these lower

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Speaker 1: job ratings. It's only going to push the Fed to

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Speaker 1: maybe lower interest rates quicker, maybe do a bigger cut

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Speaker 1: later this month than was anticipated. But all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: you're setting up potentials for stagflation. Right. We have this

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Speaker 1: slow down happening, we have rising consumer prices, rising inflation,

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Speaker 1: and then if we're already lowering interest rates and it

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Speaker 1: doesn't have the intended impact, then suddenly we're running out

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Speaker 1: of tools in order to goose the economy and do this.

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Speaker 1: So look, this is still a very precarious economy. Politically,

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Speaker 1: Trump can take a victory lap and say, see, I

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Speaker 1: told you this economy wasn't as good as the data

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Speaker 1: was saying back in late twenty in mid to late

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. But it's also a reminder that maybe

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Speaker 1: Democrats should have listened to what the people were saying

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Speaker 1: and listened to the so called vibes, because the vibes

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Speaker 1: turned out to be a much more accurate statement about

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Speaker 1: the state of the economy than the data. And again,

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Speaker 1: you know, sometimes politics is pretty simple if you listen

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Speaker 1: to the voters, and on this one, the voters were

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Speaker 1: saying they didn't like this economy, that this economy wasn't

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Speaker 1: feeling good. They were feeling like something was off, And

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Speaker 1: sure enough, here we are. I'm not sure Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: recipe for improving it is going to work, and I

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Speaker 1: think there's a lot of skepticism that's going to work.

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Speaker 1: And this may be the worst time to try to

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Speaker 1: retool the economy, as we were already heading into some

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Speaker 1: sort of global slow down there, so the expedited court fight.

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Speaker 1: Keep an eye on John Roberts. But do know, and

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Speaker 1: you'll hear this in the Bruce Molment interview, there is

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Speaker 1: plenty of avenues, you know. Put it this way. I

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Speaker 1: was among those in the Camptain thought of, boy, maybe

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Speaker 1: the Supreme Court will save our economy and with it

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Speaker 1: perhaps save Trump's political problems as well, because if he's

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Speaker 1: told these are unconstitutional and he may be angry, could

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Speaker 1: get him away from doing bad policy. But I think

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Speaker 1: now I'm pretty convinced these are going to stay. The

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Speaker 1: question is what's the legal framework that keeps them in place.

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Speaker 1: The other big couple of other big stories include overseas

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Speaker 1: that have happened. We have the potential incursion of Russian

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Speaker 1: drones into Polish airspace. Here's what's but here's the bottom line.

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Speaker 1: This is a continuation regardless of what that situation is,

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Speaker 1: and they're likely when you're listening to this we'll have

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Speaker 1: a bit more information. But this is fitting a pattern

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Speaker 1: that we've seen since the Alaska Summit. The Alaska Summit

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Speaker 1: was a giant disaster and humiliation for Donald Trump. We

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Speaker 1: just don't cover it through that prism right now because

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Speaker 1: there's all these other stories popping up. But not only

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Speaker 1: did Putin not accept any of the pathways that Trump

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Speaker 1: begged him to take, He's escalated the war on Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: He started to target cities in Ukraine that he hadn't

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Speaker 1: targeted before. He's getting closer to the Polish border in ways,

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Speaker 1: it's almost he's testing the electric fence. Let's see if

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Speaker 1: we get a reaction. How aggressive can he be? And

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Speaker 1: now you have President Trump trying to get the Europeans

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Speaker 1: to punish the Chinese and the Indians for Russian oil.

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Speaker 1: But it's not as if we're doing it with China.

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Speaker 1: He's trying to get the Europeans to do tougher sanctions

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Speaker 1: on Russia, even though he is not necessarily advocating the

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Speaker 1: same policy. He wants tougher sanctions on China, even though

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Speaker 1: again he's not practicing what he's preaching to the Europeans

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Speaker 1: on this, but it is it is a This obviously

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Speaker 1: is a dangerous situation. The polls are not going to

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Speaker 1: wait ask for permission from the United States to defend

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Speaker 1: their own territory. So this is a scary situation. This

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Speaker 1: was the situation we've all been scared about with this

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Speaker 1: war between Russia and Ukraine because it is pretty much

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Speaker 1: everybody on the border. He's a NATO member, and this

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Speaker 1: could quickly escalate if we're not careful. And perhaps Putin

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Speaker 1: is trying to test the electric fence here. What will

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Speaker 1: the Americans do? Will they be there? What will NATO do?

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Speaker 1: Speaking of the Americans in a response, Then there is

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Speaker 1: Israel's brazen attack and Oha, the capital of Qatar, who's

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Speaker 1: been housing hamas, which for many this has been a

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Speaker 1: head scratcher for a long time. I mean, the coziness

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Speaker 1: with which American government officials left and right have made

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Speaker 1: with Katar and how much money they throw at Washington

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Speaker 1: and throw a sort of cultural causes in the United States.

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Speaker 1: And here they were harboring the Taliban at one time,

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Speaker 1: how they harbor Hamas providing safe haven for some of

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Speaker 1: those leadership groups it's been in. It's an interesting relationship.

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Speaker 1: I guess if you look at it from the point

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Speaker 1: of view of the Kataris, they've done a good job

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Speaker 1: sort of punching above their weight. They've become this sort

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Speaker 1: of home for potential diplomatic negotiations, whether it was the

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Speaker 1: Maas before that had to do with the pulling out

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Speaker 1: of Afghanistan, and they were the go between with the Taliban. Well,

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Speaker 1: they found out today that the United States wants to

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Speaker 1: be their friend. And they may have found out today

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Speaker 1: that the giving Donald Trump a plane will pay dividends

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Speaker 1: when they need it. Because Israel decided to violate Qatar's

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Speaker 1: airspace and attack Hamas with really no warning, they did

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Speaker 1: not get a green light from the United States. That appears.

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Speaker 1: I know Trump's credibility is with many of you that

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Speaker 1: are listening, is less than zero, and so you have

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Speaker 1: to take his truth social posts with a grain of salt.

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Speaker 1: But the last thing he wanted to do was to

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Speaker 1: piss off the Katari's. The last thing he wants to

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Speaker 1: do is mess up all of his personal business interests

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Speaker 1: and his kids business interests that are getting all sorts

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Speaker 1: of investments from UAE Guitar and the Saudi's. He really

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Speaker 1: wants to create, expand the Abramaimo Cords. He really wants

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Speaker 1: to create this sort of great financial and business relationship

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Speaker 1: with the Gulf States. So there's no chance, I really

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Speaker 1: believe this. There's no chance that if the Israelis went

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Speaker 1: to the United States before launching this strike and said

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Speaker 1: will you support this, that the United States would have said. Now,

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Speaker 1: I do think they would have, and I do think

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Speaker 1: Trump would have. So the fact is that the Israelis

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Speaker 1: knew this, which is why they jammed Trump on this, right.

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Speaker 1: They apparently they didn't give him a heads up. They

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Speaker 1: got him gave a heads up only after the United

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Speaker 1: States inquired why are there Israeli jets headed over to

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Speaker 1: the Gulf, what are they up to? And that's of course,

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Speaker 1: and by the time, and we've heard the Emir and

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Speaker 1: Katar say when they found out it was sort of

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Speaker 1: they got a heads up from the United States ten

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Speaker 1: minutes after after the attack in Israel's really put itself

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Speaker 1: in a and it's potentially isolated itself here. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is and you know, once again bb netna who

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Speaker 1: finds a way to irritate an American president that wants

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Speaker 1: to try to help him, wants to try to support him,

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Speaker 1: and he pushes the envelope and pushes the envelope and

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Speaker 1: just absolutely makes it extraordinarily hard. There's a reason Jim Baker,

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Speaker 1: one time Secretary of State for George HW Bush, banned

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Speaker 1: a young bb netnaw who from ever even entering the

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Speaker 1: state department. Bill Clinton lost patients with him, George W.

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Speaker 1: Bush lost patients with him. Barack Obama. I've talked about

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Speaker 1: this quite a bit, how much Obama and bbuh didn't

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Speaker 1: see eye to eye. Trump has actually now soured on him,

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Speaker 1: more so in the second term than he did the

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Speaker 1: first term. In the first term, he saw Bibe as

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Speaker 1: a terrific wedge with the Democrats, and I do think

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Speaker 1: that's still how Trump views Israel. It's a way to

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Speaker 1: drive a wedge into the Democratic Party, into their donor,

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Speaker 1: into their donor situation, and it certainly divides right. Supporting

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Speaker 1: Israel divides the Democrats in a way. Frankly, I don't

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Speaker 1: think that any other issue is dividing the party right now.

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Speaker 1: Maybe socialism, and we're going to get to that in

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Speaker 1: a few minutes, but that, you know, in that in

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Speaker 1: some ways maybe motivated may have motivated Trump in the

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Speaker 1: past to sort of give all these green lights to

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Speaker 1: bb and maybe Bbe just assumes he can ask for

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Speaker 1: forgiveness on this one. But we'll see how the Gulf

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Speaker 1: States react, you know, if they start being Look, Bibe's

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Speaker 1: unpopular in Israel, but it's an interesting you know, I

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Speaker 1: think i've some of you have heard me rant about

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Speaker 1: this before, the opposition to Bbe. There's a majority that

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Speaker 1: want BB out in Israel, but the problem is that

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Speaker 1: anti bb majority can't agree on who should lead it.

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Speaker 1: How it works, it's very similar to this country. There's

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Speaker 1: a majority that don't want Trump in there. The problem

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Speaker 1: is that majority can't agree on how to on how

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Speaker 1: to what the alternative looks like. Right, there's a good

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Speaker 1: fifty five percent majority that is anti Trump and Trump

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Speaker 1: is but that's all they have in common, right, They

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Speaker 1: don't have anything else in common. Well, I've always used

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Speaker 1: the example of basically AOC the Liz chaining right, what

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Speaker 1: do they have in common? Trump's a threat to the constitution.

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Speaker 1: Other than that, I don't know how much more they

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Speaker 1: have in common on that. And so when you watch

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Speaker 1: how bb and this is how he can he's basically

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Speaker 1: held power, expanded his power even as he's become more unpopular.

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Speaker 1: That's why one of my favorite expressions to political scientists

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Speaker 1: is Israel our future? Our future? Or is it a

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Speaker 1: glimpse of our past if we export this? Or are

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Speaker 1: we importing their their style of politics into this country?

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Speaker 1: Just something to think about. There. There's a reason results

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Speaker 1: matter more than promises, just like there's a reason Morgan

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Speaker 1: and Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. For the

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Speaker 1: last thirty five years, they've recovered twenty five billion dollars

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Speaker 1: for more than half a million clients. It includes cases

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Speaker 1: where insurance companies offered next to nothing, just hoping to

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Speaker 1: get away with paying his little little as possible. Morgan

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Speaker 1: and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

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Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered that original offer six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. So with more than one thousand lawyers across

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Speaker 1: the country, they know how to deliver for everyday people.

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Speaker 1: If you're injured, you need a lawyer, You need somebody

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Speaker 1: to get your back. Check out for the People dot com,

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Speaker 1: Slash podcast or Dow Pound Law pound five two nine

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Speaker 1: law on your cell phone. And remember all law firms

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Speaker 1: are not the same, So check out Morgan and Morgan.

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Speaker 1: Their fee is free unless they win. And finally, before

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Speaker 1: I get to sort of my larger point for the

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Speaker 1: for the morning, the Epstein fives and the decision by

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Speaker 1: the Trump White House and Donald Trump to go full

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Speaker 1: George Orwell on this and just say nope, I didn't

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Speaker 1: write that letter. So somehow the only forgery in this

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Speaker 1: birthday book from the Epstein estate is somehow, somehow has

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Speaker 1: to do with Donald Trump. Right, we don't hear Bill

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Speaker 1: Clinton saying that we don't hear Alan Dershowitz saying that

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Speaker 1: you don't hear any of these other folks saying that.

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Speaker 1: And it's always been a head scratcher to me. Why

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Speaker 1: Trump has set himself up to sort of look this

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Speaker 1: foolish and now maybe you look at what he's created.

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Speaker 1: That he's created this alternative factual universe, and he has

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Speaker 1: got his people willing to believe whatever he says, right

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Speaker 1: he you know the infamous quote, you can shoot somebody

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Speaker 1: in Fifth Avenue and nothing would happen to his popularity

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Speaker 1: rating with his base, and Epstein's the first real test

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Speaker 1: of this, right, it's the biggest test yet, probably the

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Speaker 1: biggest test since Access Hollywood. And he's going with it

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Speaker 1: was it me defense? Nope, I didn't do it. Nope,

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Speaker 1: that wasn't me. That's got to be a forgery. That's

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Speaker 1: got to be a hoax. And shockingly, so many staffers

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Speaker 1: are willing to put their name on the record. I

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Speaker 1: mean Caroline Levitt, I mean, she just eliminated herself from

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Speaker 1: ever being taken seriously when she leaves this job. She

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Speaker 1: may feel empowered right now in the moment, and maybe

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Speaker 1: she'll follow Sarah Sanders into politics and just stay in

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Speaker 1: the partisan lane. But many a press secretary, you know,

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Speaker 1: believes their communications genius, and they want to be able

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Speaker 1: to work in corporate America. But when you're this brazen

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Speaker 1: about bullshit, when you're this Orwellian and willing to put

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Speaker 1: your name on it, when you know he's lying on this,

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Speaker 1: you know he's lying on this. We all know he's

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Speaker 1: lying on this. So it's a it's an it's it's

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Speaker 1: a moment. And you know, we've we've known this that

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Speaker 1: you know when the when the fraud boils. It happened

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Speaker 1: slowly and you don't feel it, and all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden it's boiled. And we've been warning of this moment.

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Speaker 1: And the big tech companies with their algorithms that have

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Speaker 1: totally destroyed the information ecosystem, and yet they take no

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Speaker 1: responsibility for their role in this. Congratulations they've created exactly

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Speaker 1: I you know, I in my current substack, my recommended

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Speaker 1: reading for the week was nineteen eighty four. We have

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Speaker 1: entered it. It is worth rereading. I just reread it recently.

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Speaker 1: It is here we are and this is the to

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Speaker 1: And maybe it was all building that building to this

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Speaker 1: moment when he had something that was just so hard

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Speaker 1: for him to erase away in the minds of voters

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Speaker 1: that he just you know, didn't do it. You know,

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Speaker 1: I'm reminded there was an old uh Eddie Murphy stand

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Speaker 1: up that I was obsessed with back when I was

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Speaker 1: in high school. And there's a whole routine and when

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Speaker 1: he gets caught with another woman and he says, one baby,

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Speaker 1: what me? What men? I don't know what you're talking

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Speaker 1: about with me? She walks into the bedroom. Wasn't me?

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Speaker 1: And then he's somehow and the whole sort of the

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Speaker 1: punchline of the joke is some of you who know

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Speaker 1: the routine may know exactly where this is going. And

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to totally get into it here because

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Speaker 1: I'd like to say I'm want to be family friendly ish,

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Speaker 1: and I'll be honest, I don't know how much of that,

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Speaker 1: you know, there's much of that routine of of his,

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Speaker 1: both delirious and raw. For you Gen xers out there

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Speaker 1: that are that are like that, you know as uh

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Speaker 1: you know NSFW not safe for work, not safe for

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Speaker 1: mixed company, probably not safe for any Gen Z or

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Speaker 1: millennial at this point. Just as a quick aside, I

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Speaker 1: my son is at he couldn't believe when he saw

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Speaker 1: clips of Animal House He's like that that was an

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Speaker 1: inn actual movie, Like he couldn't believe some of the

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Speaker 1: things that were deemed comedic back then. And you know

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Speaker 1: that's that's some of these stand up routines from the eighties.

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Speaker 1: But I'll admit that's I was thinking about that when

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Speaker 1: I see Trump just sort of Nope, not me, not

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Speaker 1: my signature, none of that's it's certainly brazen in our

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Speaker 1: first truly the most Orwellian moment I think we've had

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Speaker 1: so far in the Trump era. The question is whether

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Speaker 1: this has a huge impact on him, and the way

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Speaker 1: it all depends on how Democrats use it. I don't

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Speaker 1: think Democrats have as much credibility on the Epstein issue itself,

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Speaker 1: because I think it is easy to say, hey, where

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Speaker 1: were you last year on this? You know, when you

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Speaker 1: guys had the ability to do all this, you didn't

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Speaker 1: do it. Now you care because it seems to make

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Speaker 1: Trump squirm. So I think the issue itself is hard

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Speaker 1: for them to weaponize. But here's where I think the

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Speaker 1: issue can be effective. If you're trying to make the

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Speaker 1: case that Donald Trump keeps lyne to you about you know,

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Speaker 1: he told you he was going to do this with

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Speaker 1: the economy. He told you he was going to create

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Speaker 1: the golden age of this. You know, he's not telling

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Speaker 1: you the truth. Doesn't tell you the truth on the

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Speaker 1: Epstein files, doesn't tell you the truth about that, doesn't

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Speaker 1: tell you the truth about this. So that's how I

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Speaker 1: think it can be used as sort of in the

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Speaker 1: if you're trying to essentially make the case to the

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Speaker 1: jury of voters of he's not he you know the

429
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,880
Speaker 1: reason this economy has not gotten better, it's gotten worse

430
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 1: because what he told you is not true and turned

431
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 1: out to be not true. And how do you know

432
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: that he will just say whatever it takes to convince

433
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 1: you otherwise, You know, look at this Epstein story, and

434
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: it is sticky enough where people know the story. It

435
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,920
Speaker 1: is not. I do not believe it's a voting issue,

436
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: but I believe it's a piece of evidence that can

437
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 1: be used to make the case to a swing voter

438
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: that they that you know, Republican X can't be trusted,

439
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 1: you know, that sort of thing. And so that's where

440
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 1: I think it can be effective. My substack this week,

441
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,640
Speaker 1: and I hope you've I don't charge for my substack.

442
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: It is free, So get over there and subscribe and

443
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 1: you'll be the for you. That way, you get it

444
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:09,880
Speaker 1: immediately without having to go search for it. I talk

445
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:15,719
Speaker 1: about basically, I single out the challenge that the Democrats

446
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: have right now and that they sort of need to

447
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,439
Speaker 1: be thinking about twenty thirty two, the twenty thirty two

448
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 1: presidential race, and are they going to be a competitive

449
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 1: national party in twenty thirty two, and how do they

450
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 1: make sure they are a competitive national party in twenty

451
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 1: thirty two. And so I start by outlining the twenty

452
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: twenty four electoral map. And when you look at the

453
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four electoral map, Kamala Harris was three. There

454
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 1: was a there were three states that if she won

455
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 1: that she didn't, would have given her exactly two hundred

456
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 1: and seventy electoral VTEs Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Had she won

457
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 1: those three states carried everything else that she carried, she'd

458
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 1: had two hundred seventy eleis tooral votes Trump would I

459
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 1: had two sixty eight. As you know, the twenty thirty

460
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 1: cent census is coming after that, we reapportion and there

461
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: are the electoral vote count changes, and potentially in all

462
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 1: fifty states now it won't be all fifty states. Some

463
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 1: states will get more congressional seats, therefore their electoral vote

464
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: margin will get bigger, and some states will lose. Well,

465
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 1: when you look at that fictional map I just described

466
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 1: to you with a two what could have been a

467
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 1: two seventy two sixty eight path, and it's the path

468
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 1: that does exist for Democrats in twenty twenty eight, the

469
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: narrowest swath their old blue wall. But by twenty thirty two,

470
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 1: that same path would only account for two hundred and

471
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: fifty nine electoral votes, which means they have to go

472
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: find one potentially one more state in the Sunbelt. Arizona

473
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: would be eleven electoral votes likely, so that would be enough,

474
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 1: would get them right on the number. But the purpose

475
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 1: of this piece was sort of looking at Georgia, North

476
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 1: Carolina and how I believe you know. So, if you

477
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: look at the last thirty years right, for the first

478
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 1: ten years of the twenty first century, the two most

479
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 1: important battleground states were Florida and Ohio, right, it was

480
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: Ohio was John Kerry's last stand. Florida was Al Gore's

481
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 1: last stan Barack Obama carried both Florida and Ohio, and

482
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 1: twenty oh eight and twenty twelve, and Donald Trump carried

483
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 1: both Florida and Ohio in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty.

484
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 1: So they've been serving as that as that bella. They're

485
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 1: no longer obviously, they've become pretty Republican at this point.

486
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 1: Over the last two president three presidential cycles, the three

487
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 1: most important swing states been Michigan, Wisconsin, in Pennsylvania. Right

488
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 1: had Hillary won of them, she'd have gotten the presidenc

489
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 1: She didn't. That was his narrow path to go get

490
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: the presidency, and he got it. Biden wins him back,

491
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 1: he wins the presidency. Harris can't win the she loses

492
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 1: the presidency. But going starting in twenty thirty two, it

493
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 1: is going to be Georgia North Carolina when those if

494
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: those states split, were in for an electoral college nail buyer.

495
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 1: But when those two states go in the same direction,

496
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 1: that party is going to win the White House. By

497
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 1: the way, this means they're also extraordinarily important now for

498
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: Democrats to be competitive in if they want to hold

499
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: ever get a majority in the Senate. Again, I mean

500
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 1: this is stay with me here, but if you look

501
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 1: at the maximum Senate number of Senate seats that Democrats

502
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: could win if they just won every Senate seat in

503
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: blue states, consistent blue states, and I count Maine as

504
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 1: one of those consistent blue states, and they win all

505
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: of the Senate seats in the seven battle grounds of

506
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 1: the last two cycles, the seven battle grounds being Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia,

507
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 1: North Carolina. Do you realize if they won every Senate

508
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: seat in all of those states, they'd only their ceiling

509
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 1: of US Senate seats as fifty two. That would be

510
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 1: their ceiling. Republicans hold fifty three seats right now. So

511
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 1: you see the problem here. So the question is is

512
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 1: the party thinking about what are they doing today to

513
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: prepare for this moment in twenty thirty two when they're

514
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: potentially dealing with a basically a short deck when it

515
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: comes a narrow, much more narrow path to the electoral college.

516
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 1: They've got to figure out how to expand their path.

517
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: They got to figure out how not to see this

518
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 1: sense and maybe the census. And by the way, if

519
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 1: Republicans control the census, even in a post Trump world,

520
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 1: are they going to follow the lead at Trump and

521
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: essentially politicize it as much as they can or walk

522
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: right up to the line of the law and create

523
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 1: a situation that makes it even harder, right, maximizes Republican

524
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 1: gains and places like Ida and Utah, so really sort

525
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 1: of almost lock out the Democrats from their ability to

526
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: win the House. And if they've not had any success

527
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 1: expanding the number of states they can be competitive in

528
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 1: in statewide offices, you know, a Kansas and Iowa, a Mississippi,

529
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: a Nebraska, then they're still stuck with this narrow path.

530
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 1: So the point being is in twenty twenty six, the

531
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 1: two most important races in America, the two most important

532
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: states in America are going to be Georgia in North Carolina,

533
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 1: because they are going to tell us whether democrault be

534
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: and this gets it to their rural vote problem, and

535
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 1: I think, frankly, this gets it to their their socialism problem. Right.

536
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 1: We just saw some new polling coming out of Gallup

537
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 1: that shows that it that you know, of the thirty

538
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: six to thirty nine percent that favors socialism over capitalism,

539
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 1: it's driven almost exclusively by Democrats. That a majority of

540
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: Democrats are a bit more favorable to socialism than the capitalism.

541
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 1: Understand I totally get how this happened financial crisis. In fact,

542
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 1: we have a nice conversation with Bruce Melbane on this

543
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 1: topic as well and how you get there. But I

544
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 1: don't think the current leadership of the Democratic Party understands

545
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: the toxicity of the word socialism and if the Sun

546
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 1: Belt is going to become the new battleground of American politics,

547
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 1: replacing the Midwest over the next couple of cycles. And

548
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: I'm just telling you it is where Arizona, Georgia, North

549
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: Carolina and potentially other Sun Belt states are going to

550
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: determine political power in this country, who controls the Senate

551
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 1: and who controls the White House. The S word doesn't

552
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: play well in the South, you know, in the Midwest,

553
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 1: in the Northeast, and even out west, democratic socialism does

554
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: not spark sort of immediate sort of flinching or automatic

555
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 1: negative feelings because many of those voters when they hear

556
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 1: the word socialism, they do think of European socialism. But

557
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 1: down south, particularly in the Southeast where I grew up

558
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 1: in Miami in particular. But this is true I think

559
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 1: in South Texas, and this is going to be true

560
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: in Phoenix. The the culture, the Latin, the the when

561
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 1: when people in the South hear the word socialism, they

562
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 1: look south. And some of the most thuggish authoritarian regimes

563
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 1: in the South have called themselves socialist regimes in some

564
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 1: form down in Latin America. And that is why it

565
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: is such a you know, the S word is so

566
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:46,240
Speaker 1: toxic in South Florida with so many you know, first, second,

567
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 1: third generation Latinos who who have parents or grandparents who

568
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:54,800
Speaker 1: have told them stories about these authoritarian dictatorships under the

569
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 1: guise of socialism that brutalize their family or brutalized people

570
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 1: that they knew. And so I you know, as the

571
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 1: Democrats think about their future and look at that twenty

572
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 1: thirty two election and ask themselves that they can be

573
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 1: a majority party again by twenty thirty two, that can

574
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 1: they be competitive? Can they be on par with where

575
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 1: the Republicans? Why don't trajector appear to be headed. They're

576
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: just going to have to rebrand and they're gonna have

577
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,439
Speaker 1: to back off. This socialism work. It does not work.

578
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: You can explain it away, you know, you can. You

579
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 1: might be better off making the argument that Trump is

580
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: embracing socialism when it comes to Intel and some of

581
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 1: these other things he's doing with us Steele. But this

582
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 1: is this is they needed, if they need something to

583
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 1: quote unquote Sister Soldier away from it is that doesn't

584
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: mean the specific policies that fall under the umbrella that

585
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,760
Speaker 1: some people call democratic socialism aren't stuff worth pursuing putting

586
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,320
Speaker 1: them in your platform. But you've got to almost decidedly

587
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 1: make sure people don't confuse it with socialism and trying

588
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 1: to embrace it and trying to rebrand it. It may

589
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 1: make you feel better in a dorm room somewhere on

590
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 1: the campus at Dartmouth or Brown, but it is not

591
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 1: going to win over swing voters in the Sunbelt. It

592
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: just isn't going to do it. Maybe if mom Donnie

593
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 1: is elected and he has and it's just this miraculous

594
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 1: transformation of New York City in a three to six

595
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 1: year period, that it might change the minds of voters,

596
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: But I'm pretty skeptical of that. And if they go

597
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: down this road embracing any form whatever they want to

598
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 1: describe it, but if they're using the S word, if

599
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 1: they're not comfortable pushing back when accused of being a socialist,

600
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,839
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a long, much

601
00:36:56,000 --> 00:37:00,080
Speaker 1: longer much longer time in the wilderness for Democrats that

602
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 1: they're not anyway. I just I found myself when I

603
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 1: was looking at what's twenty thirty two going to look like,

604
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,760
Speaker 1: and you see where the Democrats are today. It shows

605
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 1: you these next three election cycles are going to determine

606
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 1: right sort of who's in charge of the census in

607
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: twenty thirty. So the twenty twenty eight presidential election is

608
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 1: going to decide which party's in charge of the census

609
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 1: twenty six and the twenty thirty mid terms are going

610
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,879
Speaker 1: to help elect the state legislatures and the governors who

611
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 1: are going to decide what the congressional map looks like.

612
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 1: So now you suddenly see why this midterm, You know,

613
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 1: can the Democrats expand their reach a bit? Can they

614
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 1: go into new states? Can they break through in order

615
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 1: to expand their ability to win in more states. In

616
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: order to do that, they're going to have to broaden

617
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 1: their economic message, probably cut down some of the on

618
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 1: some of the cultural issues, and really sort of make

619
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: a concerted effort to push socialis, to push the brand

620
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 1: of socialism out of their party. I think there are

621
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 1: some ideas they can use and fight for, but they've

622
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 1: got to be under the under the umbrella of capitalism.

623
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: I'm convinced of this if they want to be competitive

624
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:23,399
Speaker 1: in these sun Belt states. All right, with that, I'm

625
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 1: gonna sneak in a break coming up after I've got

626
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 1: my top five list for the week after the interview,

627
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: and also a little bit of ass check that will

628
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 1: sneak in a break here. So it is Wednesday, and

629
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,439
Speaker 1: as you know, I've been doing this segment of top

630
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 1: five lists, you know, for years now and months. This

631
00:38:50,440 --> 00:39:00,120
Speaker 1: is a tradition unlike any other top top So my

632
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 1: top five lists, I am going to have two of

633
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 1: them this week. I've had sort of a dnn R

634
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 1: and it's actually related to my opening monologue today, which

635
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,399
Speaker 1: is it is pretty clear, and I think I've made

636
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 1: the case that Democrats desperately have to expand their map.

637
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 1: They have got to put more states into the battleground,

638
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 1: more states into the competitive column, whether it's for the

639
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 1: ability to win Senate seats to raise their ceiling farther

640
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 1: above a fifty two seat maximum. But there's also opportunities

641
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:32,280
Speaker 1: for Republicans at this point to potentially expand the battleground,

642
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 1: expand the number of states they have an opportunity to contest. So,

643
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 1: without further ado, I'm going to give you what I

644
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 1: think are the top five opportunities for the Democrats to

645
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: expand expand their map, whether it's to expand it for

646
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 1: presidential electoral votes by twenty thirty two. And all of

647
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: this is five in order of the five most likely

648
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 1: to make it into the battleground by twenty thirty two.

649
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 1: I'm not saying this going to happen by twenty twenty eight,

650
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 1: though it could, but by twenty thirty two, what are

651
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 1: the opportunities and where would the parties be smart to

652
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 1: start investing today in order to make twenty thirty two

653
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 1: a reality. So the number one state I have on

654
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 1: my list that I think Democrats could get into the

655
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 1: competitive com by twenty thirty two is Alaska. I think

656
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 1: Alaska is you know, any place where there's a libertarian

657
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 1: lean not very happy with sort of this very sort

658
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 1: of strong man government there, you know it is. We've

659
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 1: seen democratic performance has slowly been improving in Alaska over

660
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 1: about a ten year period. It was very similar. You

661
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 1: saw a slow creep over over the years in Virginia

662
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 1: and Colorado took a good decade or so, and then

663
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, when they went, they went, and

664
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 1: in fact, Colorado spent about it. You know, both Virginia

665
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 1: and Colorado just spent basically one cycle in the battleground

666
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:59,120
Speaker 1: and then they ended up reliably light blue states. Alaska.

667
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 1: It is, it feels like every election cycle the right,

668
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 1: the right coalition gets smaller, and the left and center

669
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 1: the left has gotten closer to the center and this

670
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 1: sort of independent slash, you know, de leaning fusion electorate.

671
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 1: They have figured out more times than not how to

672
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:26,320
Speaker 1: be competitive here. So I think Alaska number one on

673
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 1: the list there. Number two is Iowa. Now, some of it,

674
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 1: you know, it all depends on what happens in twenty

675
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 1: twenty six. But if they elect a Democratic governor in

676
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, I think they have as good of

677
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: a chance as they've had in at least a decade.

678
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 1: Then that puts Iowa back on the map potentially, And

679
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 1: I think if the DNC were smart, they put Iowa

680
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: back into the early primary calendar. Embrace it because it

681
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 1: would get because the biggest, basically the biggest impediment between

682
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:59,879
Speaker 1: Democrats expanding their map or having it narrow is whether

683
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: they are able to campaign in rural America, right it

684
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 1: is rural. It is their allergy to campaigning in rural

685
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:11,760
Speaker 1: America over the last decade that has narrowed this narrowed

686
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 1: their list of battleground states down to as small as

687
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 1: it is right now. You know, in fact, you know,

688
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 1: take North Carolina, which I think now is becoming an

689
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,439
Speaker 1: essential state for Democrats if they ever want to hold

690
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 1: majority power in the Senate or win a presidential election.

691
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 1: You know, they've actually only carried North Carolina once in

692
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 1: the twenty first centuries, two thousand and eight. And that's

693
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 1: also the last time Democrats elected a Senator in North Carolina.

694
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 1: It was two thousand and eight, and it was because

695
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 1: Obama did really well in the rural black counties that

696
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 1: border South Carolina. That performance has been shrinking almost every

697
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 1: election cycle since as Democrats shift their strategy away from

698
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:54,399
Speaker 1: rural America. It's been a huge disasteride argue. It's why

699
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 1: they're on They're having to always draw these inside straits

700
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 1: in order to see if they can get to fifty

701
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:01,399
Speaker 1: Senate seats, plus see if they can get to two

702
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy electoral votes. Because they've made it much

703
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 1: harder on themselves because they've just sort of walked away

704
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 1: from rural America. Some of it is sort of too

705
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 1: many strategists live in the Asclate Corridor doing too many

706
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: strategists argue for writing in the Democratic side writing off

707
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 1: rural America because it's an inefficient use of dollars. Just

708
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 1: maximize turnout in the cities, in the suburbs, and you

709
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 1: can offset that. Not enough vote all these things, Well,

710
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 1: the Republicans target urban America and shave their margins off.

711
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 1: And in fact, when Republicans win in blue or light

712
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 1: blue states, it's usually because they lose the metro areas

713
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:40,359
Speaker 1: by less than they normally do. Well, it's the same

714
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 1: mindset on the Democratic side. If they cut, if they

715
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:47,320
Speaker 1: you know, instead of losing eighty twenty in rural America,

716
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 1: they lose seventy to thirty, Suddenly there's a bunch more

717
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 1: states they could they could be putting in play and

718
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:54,959
Speaker 1: having more success with. So number one is a Lastka.

719
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,919
Speaker 1: Number two is Iowa. Number three, And this is where

720
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:01,439
Speaker 1: and let me be honest here, I really think only

721
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 1: Alaska and Iowa have a realistic path into the battleground

722
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 1: of the red states into the battleground by twenty thirty two.

723
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:12,239
Speaker 1: I promise you a top five list. So my next

724
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,359
Speaker 1: three are Ohio. I put Texas in the four slot,

725
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 1: and I put Kansas in the fifth slot, missing the

726
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 1: cut or I think there's quasi competitiveness if the party

727
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,240
Speaker 1: knows how to brand itself and frankly rebrands itself outside

728
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 1: of socialism word that's Mississippi, Florida in Utah. I think

729
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 1: Mississippi is a cheaper investment than Florida is and Utah

730
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 1: is still you know, there's still some cultural disconnect. But

731
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 1: I do think, you know, as Trump has lowered the

732
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 1: bar of character and politics, the most reliably Republican group

733
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 1: that has been the most uncomfortable with this sort of

734
00:44:54,640 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 1: low character style of of practic seeing politics have been Mormons.

735
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 1: And is there a way to connect with that constituency

736
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 1: in a way that would allow give Democrats a more

737
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: competitive advantage in Utah. I'm skeptical, but I do think it,

738
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 1: you know, a a party desperate to become a national

739
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,920
Speaker 1: party again, and I don't think the Democrats are behaving

740
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 1: as a national party the way they should. It would

741
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,919
Speaker 1: be something worth doing. So my top five of most

742
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 1: of Demo. Of this of the red states that Democrats,

743
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: I think you can you could convince me there's a

744
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 1: path to making them competitive. One is Alaska, two is Iowa,

745
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 1: and I think those two are sort of realistic. And

746
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: the longer shots are Ohio, Texas, and Kansas. We'll learn

747
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 1: a lot more about Ohio in twenty twenty six. If

748
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 1: Vivek Ramaswami can win that governorship in Ohio, then I

749
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 1: might argue it's it's it's it's out of reach. I

750
00:45:55,600 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 1: think he's I think he's he's beatable. Let's see what

751
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 1: kind of campaign the eventual Democratic nomine runs, whether it's

752
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 1: Amy Acton, who's more of an outsider, or maybe Tim Ryan,

753
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 1: former Senate candidate himself house member he gets in. But

754
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 1: you know, I'm very I'm watching that governor's race and

755
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 1: it will tell me whether there is a future for

756
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 1: the Democrats long terminal high. And then of course there's

757
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:26,879
Speaker 1: shared Browns Senate campaign where he's trying one more time

758
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 1: and if he wins, his reward for winning is to

759
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 1: potentially run again in twenty eight. Republicans have some opportunities

760
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:35,399
Speaker 1: and if you looked at the map right now I'd

761
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:39,839
Speaker 1: say they're the best opportunity for either party to put

762
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 1: a new state into the battleground by twenty thirty two

763
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:46,320
Speaker 1: and frankly by twenty twenty eight, it's Minnesota. Minnesota is basically,

764
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 1: you know, it borders Wisconsin, it borders the Dakota's Minnesota's

765
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 1: been this, you know, you know, Minnesota hung in there

766
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: with Walter Mondale. Minnesota was one of the few states

767
00:46:57,200 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 1: Democrats carried in the seventy two election. Again Nixon in Minnesota.

768
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:05,919
Speaker 1: But every cycle it gets closer. Every cycle it's less

769
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 1: and I believe the last couple of times it's been

770
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 1: less than five points. Trump may be a little too

771
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,800
Speaker 1: toxic for Minnesota, but a candidate not named Trump in

772
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 1: a twenty twenty eight or twenty thirty two, I think Minnesota,

773
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 1: more than any other state is sort of the state

774
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:25,439
Speaker 1: most likely to enter the battleground next. I think under

775
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 1: any of the states, more so than Alaska. I on

776
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 1: the Democratic side. So that's that's that's the number one.

777
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 1: Number two is New Hampshire. Right, hasn't been that long

778
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 1: since New Hampshire. I think there's a New Hampshire is

779
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 1: a very high college education, a college educated electorate, which

780
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 1: is why Trump has underperformed the generic Republican vote there.

781
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:52,479
Speaker 1: If the Republicans sort of shift slightly away from trump

782
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:55,359
Speaker 1: Ism in twenty eight I could see New Hampshire getting

783
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 1: right back. Any in the New Hampshire primary has a

784
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 1: way of recreating swing voters. So I think New Hampshire

785
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: is number two. Then I think there's a little bit

786
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 1: of a of a line here. But Virginia is another

787
00:48:07,239 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 1: state that I wonder when Trump's not If Trump is gone,

788
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: does Virginia get a much closer to being purple again.

789
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 1: I feel that way about Colorado potentially, but a bit

790
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:23,800
Speaker 1: a bit more so with Virginia. I'm very curious of

791
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 1: the margin. I'm pretty confident Abigail spaanberg Er. I think

792
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 1: she's a favorite for a reason. You know, if you

793
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 1: were to ask me to set a point spread, I'd

794
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 1: probably put it about five and a half, you know,

795
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:37,360
Speaker 1: north of one by double digits. When he won Virginia

796
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:40,240
Speaker 1: in twenty seventeen, the first sort of reactionary anti Trump

797
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 1: Virginia gubernatorial election. I think in this one, anything over five,

798
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: And I think it's sort of maybe we are in

799
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 1: a situation where Virginia's is going to be permanently light blue.

800
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:57,239
Speaker 1: But if it gets a little closer than we think,

801
00:48:57,320 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 1: I think that's a sign that maybe Virginia isn't as

802
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 1: rock solid blue as many Democrats believe. It is number four,

803
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 1: Number five on my list much longer shots. Number four

804
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 1: is New Jersey. I actually think New Jersey, if it's

805
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 1: sort of still a trumpy party, I think New Jersey

806
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 1: is one where Republicans haven't invested enough, and if they did,

807
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 1: they I think they'd have better They'd have some better

808
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 1: luck here. We're going to learn a lot in this

809
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:29,400
Speaker 1: governor's race. I'm fully betting that the New Jersey governor's

810
00:49:29,480 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 1: race is much closer than the Virginia governor's race. We'll see,

811
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 1: but that's my bet. And I put New Jersey in

812
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 1: the in the fourth slot there for Republicans of states

813
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:41,320
Speaker 1: most likely they can bring into the battle round. And

814
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 1: in the fifth slot, I had three choices that I

815
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 1: was pondering, Colorado, New Mexico, and Rhode Island. Rhode Island

816
00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 1: the very heavy Union state, very blue collar. It's one

817
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,959
Speaker 1: of those that I've always kept an eye on because

818
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 1: in the Trump era it wouldn't surprise me if he can,

819
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 1: if there's a chance of overperforming there a little bit.

820
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 1: But I ended up choosing New Mexico. As we've seen this,

821
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 1: I think the swing, the swing vote in America politics

822
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: for the next probably decade is going to be first, second,

823
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:20,200
Speaker 1: and third generation Latino voters. And whether that's in Florida, Texas,

824
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 1: New Mexico, Arizona, California, Colorado, but wherever they're you know,

825
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:28,399
Speaker 1: New Mexico. I And so I think that it's it's

826
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: a state that wasn't that long ago they had a

827
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 1: Republican senator in Pete Dimici one that long ago that

828
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 1: they had a Republican governor in Susanna Martinez. New Mexico's

829
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 1: always is a more competitive state than we gets overlooked

830
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:44,800
Speaker 1: sometimes on this front. So I put in New Mexico

831
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 1: in the five slot there. So to wrap up top

832
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:53,400
Speaker 1: five Democratic opportunities for the battle ground in twenty thirty two, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Texas,

833
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 1: Kansas for the Republicans, their top five states that could

834
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 1: potentially enter the battle ground by twenty thirty two Minnesota,

835
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, Virginia, New Jersey, and New Mexico. And like

836
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 1: I said, the state that has the best chance of

837
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 1: getting into the battleground before twenty thirty two for either

838
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:16,320
Speaker 1: party is Minnesota. All right, let's do a few questions,

839
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:22,319
Speaker 1: ask Chuck. I'm going to try to squeeze in three

840
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 1: today since I gave you a little extra content there

841
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 1: with the top five list. The first one comes from

842
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:31,800
Speaker 1: Karen in Rhode Island, and Karen writes, today there's a

843
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:33,879
Speaker 1: story in the New York Times headline as Congress lies down,

844
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 1: Trump walks all over it. My question to you is

845
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:38,919
Speaker 1: why why be in Congress if you're not exercising power.

846
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 1: By the way, I love the podcast and find it

847
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:44,800
Speaker 1: exceptionally informative. I admire your knowledge of history and electoral politics. Well, Karen,

848
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:49,120
Speaker 1: thank you. Are we related now? I'm kidding, right? I would?

849
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:51,920
Speaker 1: I feel like you gave me the type of compliment

850
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:55,239
Speaker 1: that only a longtime friend or family member might give.

851
00:51:57,600 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 1: But I tease. Oh, And she also says she hears

852
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 1: me in ah my friends in Boston. I love Jim

853
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:06,280
Speaker 1: and Marjorie. That's easily my favorite thing I do outside

854
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:10,399
Speaker 1: the podcast and newsphere every week. So I will talk

855
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 1: to you on Thursday. If you're a BPR listener. So

856
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:17,879
Speaker 1: this isn't I don't get it either, but this goes

857
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 1: back to we basically since nine to eleven, both parties,

858
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 1: as they've gotten the presidency, have put a lot more

859
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 1: pressure on their members of Congress to toe the line.

860
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 1: And there's been and the voters have expected it in

861
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 1: some ways, you know. And I don't know if the

862
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:46,320
Speaker 1: chicken or egg conversation right, which is the two thousand election,

863
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 1: because it was, you know, the two thousand election at

864
00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 1: the time was an anomaly. We hadn't had an election

865
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:54,439
Speaker 1: that close since nineteen seventy six, and arguably really hadn't

866
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 1: had election that close in sixty eight. But here we

867
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:02,399
Speaker 1: were with a super close election that sort of mainstreamed

868
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 1: the idea of red and blue. And now in hindsight,

869
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:07,920
Speaker 1: it turned out it was the beginning of this new

870
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:11,720
Speaker 1: era of polarization where we're pretty evenly divided and we're fighting.

871
00:53:11,840 --> 00:53:14,360
Speaker 1: You know, it's this small little margins here that we're fighting.

872
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:17,919
Speaker 1: So I think is when the stakes are that high

873
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:21,600
Speaker 1: and the margins are that narrow, it puts more you know,

874
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 1: the the winning presidents put more pressure on their members

875
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 1: of Congress to toe the line. You saw it during Obamacare,

876
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:31,880
Speaker 1: you saw in it during the Trump tax cuts. We

877
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 1: saw it during Post nine to eleven with the Department

878
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 1: of Homeland Security and the creation of that during the

879
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 1: Bush years Medicare Part D that was another one that

880
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,360
Speaker 1: Bush did when he expanded that on prescription drugs. So

881
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:47,480
Speaker 1: the point is is that I think because of that,

882
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 1: so it is almost it is almost conditioned Congress. I

883
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:55,759
Speaker 1: cannot imagine the members of Congress that I grew up

884
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:57,920
Speaker 1: with in the seventies and eighties and then I covered

885
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:02,200
Speaker 1: in the nineties. They were all all protectors of sort

886
00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 1: of the legislative branch's status is a coequal branch. I

887
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 1: mean Bob Byrd, who's the longtime Senate Democratic leader off

888
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:15,360
Speaker 1: and on, I mean he would he would rail on

889
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:19,919
Speaker 1: this all the time. Uh uh and so and Trent

890
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:23,640
Speaker 1: Lott was a protector a bit more. But then when

891
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:27,279
Speaker 1: you got Bill frist there, you got Tom Dashel, they

892
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:29,719
Speaker 1: all started to become a bit more supportive of their

893
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 1: presidents fell and feeling that pressure. Then you saw it

894
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 1: with the speakerships. Pelosi really was more of a governing

895
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:38,800
Speaker 1: partner with both Obama and Biden. She was she was

896
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:42,360
Speaker 1: never an adversary really only became adversarial when when the

897
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 1: Republicans there, and vice versa with the Republicans, right, Mike,

898
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:49,960
Speaker 1: you know, it appears that Congress only cares about its

899
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 1: authority when the when whichever party is in the majority

900
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:57,640
Speaker 1: in Congress, if if it's the other party in charge

901
00:54:57,680 --> 00:55:01,920
Speaker 1: of the White House. Now, I think there's just instant

902
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:04,719
Speaker 1: I think there's that we've had such a brain drain

903
00:55:05,320 --> 00:55:09,800
Speaker 1: of members of Congress understanding their frankly supremacy when it

904
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:16,000
Speaker 1: comes to appropriations and things like that. Uh, that what

905
00:55:16,040 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 1: I would call constitutional supremacy, that that there's just not

906
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,600
Speaker 1: there's not muscle memory to do it. I mean, just

907
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:26,080
Speaker 1: look at you know, what I haven't mentioned in this

908
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:29,759
Speaker 1: episode is the the entire Venezuela situation where where Haig

909
00:55:29,840 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 1: Seth is is playing Secretary of War in Puerto Rico

910
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:36,480
Speaker 1: and we're getting all these resources ready. Apparently we are

911
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 1: just going to blow up ships without any due process,

912
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 1: without really informing Congress, without presenting evidence. I'm old enough

913
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:47,280
Speaker 1: to remember a Congress would have you know, many members

914
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:50,000
Speaker 1: of Congress would have would have you know, been alarmed

915
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:52,560
Speaker 1: by this, would have been pounding their fix, would have

916
00:55:52,600 --> 00:55:54,719
Speaker 1: been running to any camera they talked to, would have

917
00:55:55,080 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 1: been demanding more explanations from this White House. Just crickets, right,

918
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:02,800
Speaker 1: just crickets. Now, I'm sure if the Democrats win a

919
00:56:02,840 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 1: majority of one of the two houses while Trump's president,

920
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:10,840
Speaker 1: they'll suddenly start to get some of that muscle memory

921
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:15,400
Speaker 1: back and try to and try to enhance Congress's authority.

922
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 1: But if a Democrat went to the White House in

923
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:23,320
Speaker 1: twenty eight I don't expect Congress, do any democraticly controlled

924
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:26,040
Speaker 1: chamber to do anything other than olay whatever the Democratic

925
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:30,200
Speaker 1: president wants, because I think ultimately that's you know, there's

926
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 1: probably you're going to get punished. I mean, look what

927
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:35,719
Speaker 1: happens to any Republican that crosses Trump. He goes after him,

928
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:38,400
Speaker 1: and he goes after him hard. Right Thomas Massey is

929
00:56:38,719 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 1: is He's going after Massey to send a message to

930
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:47,399
Speaker 1: any other Republican that potentially crosses him. I'm not sure

931
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:54,000
Speaker 1: if the Democrats are going to try to punish wayward

932
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 1: members like that, but we start to see more of it. Right,

933
00:56:57,000 --> 00:57:01,960
Speaker 1: We've certainly seen progressives try to hold some Democrats accountable

934
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:05,240
Speaker 1: for crossing I remember the first one was in Arkansas,

935
00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 1: Blanche Lincoln and progresses, you know, funded a primary, recruited

936
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:10,919
Speaker 1: and funded a primary challenge. Here she was a sitting

937
00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 1: senator in a state that was moving in the opposite direction.

938
00:57:14,520 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 1: She gets this primary challenge from the left, she barely

939
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 1: survives it, and then you know, she gets just wiped

940
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 1: out in the general election. So but I wouldn't be

941
00:57:26,600 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 1: surprised if the next Democratic president has a has a

942
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:35,280
Speaker 1: party that that enforced this party discipline even more that

943
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:38,480
Speaker 1: that's sort of the reaction. So look, I think a

944
00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 1: whole bunch of members of Congress need to need to

945
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 1: go back to politics one on one and learn the

946
00:57:43,400 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 1: uh and maybe read a federalist paper or two about

947
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:50,440
Speaker 1: the constitution. But who knows. You know, maybe what we

948
00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:53,160
Speaker 1: need as an independent a president who wins without either

949
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 1: party's nomination, and then maybe that helps members of Congress

950
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 1: in both parties learn about their power again and try

951
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 1: to actually use it every once in a while. All right,

952
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:10,840
Speaker 1: next question, All right, we got one from Australia, Brisbane.

953
00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:13,760
Speaker 1: Love the podcast. As a long time follower of US

954
00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:16,080
Speaker 1: politics from Australia, I really value the pod as a

955
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 1: fresh perspective in these wild times. You've mentioned the idea

956
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:20,960
Speaker 1: of a constitutional convention before and I'd love to hear

957
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 1: your thoughts on reforms like ranked choice voting what we

958
00:58:23,560 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 1: call preferential here, independent electoral districting like we have with

959
00:58:27,880 --> 00:58:31,439
Speaker 1: the Australian Electoral Commission, and making battle and access less

960
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 1: restrictive to break the two party do optly, do you

961
00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 1: think any of these could realistically gain traction in the

962
00:58:37,440 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 1: United States or are they just wish for thinking from

963
00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 1: US outsiders? Gavin B from Brisbane, So, look, I do

964
00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:49,120
Speaker 1: think there's nothing in the Constitution that deals with political parties,

965
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:51,800
Speaker 1: and I don't think you're going to have that. I

966
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:54,920
Speaker 1: do think you could have something in the Constitution that

967
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:59,280
Speaker 1: guaranteed some sort of equal access to the ballot for

968
00:58:59,760 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 1: a for different political parties, sort of making it unconstitutional

969
00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:05,919
Speaker 1: to create sort of one set of rules from quote

970
00:59:06,000 --> 00:59:09,480
Speaker 1: unquote major parties and another set of rules for independents

971
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 1: and minor parties. What do I mean by that? In

972
00:59:12,280 --> 00:59:16,400
Speaker 1: many states you need more partisan signatures to qualify for

973
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:18,280
Speaker 1: a ballot if you're not a member of either of

974
00:59:18,320 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 1: the two major parties than if you are, right and

975
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:24,520
Speaker 1: those things I don't understand how they're not already violations

976
00:59:24,520 --> 00:59:27,960
Speaker 1: of the Constitution of the equal protection clause, and I

977
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:31,600
Speaker 1: certainly think some independence ought to be thinking independent candidates

978
00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:36,400
Speaker 1: and some independent those that are advocating for new parties

979
00:59:36,880 --> 00:59:40,120
Speaker 1: ought to be pushing pushing on that a little bit.

980
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 1: But I go back to what would a constitution. I

981
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 1: think that some form of age limits. The only way

982
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:48,120
Speaker 1: we're going to be able to put age limits in

983
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:50,920
Speaker 1: on who can hold office and what age they can hand,

984
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 1: you're going to have to put in a constitutional amendment.

985
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 1: I do think you can create a metric on the

986
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 1: size of a congressional district, which is a way of

987
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:06,040
Speaker 1: create creating both two things. Forcing the expansion of the

988
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:09,360
Speaker 1: House of Representatives when the population deems it so, or

989
01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 1: even the contraction if we somehow start shrinking in population.

990
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:14,200
Speaker 1: But if even put a metric, I think I came

991
01:00:14,280 --> 01:00:16,400
Speaker 1: up with one point zero zero one percent of the

992
01:00:16,480 --> 01:00:19,280
Speaker 1: population that no congressional districts should be bigger than that.

993
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:21,800
Speaker 1: And if you if you got to that right now,

994
01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:24,600
Speaker 1: that would be one member for every four hundred thousand Americans.

995
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:28,320
Speaker 1: It is currently this Congress is basically one one member

996
01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:33,920
Speaker 1: represents eight hundred thousand Americans. So you know, right now,

997
01:00:34,040 --> 01:00:36,360
Speaker 1: point zero zero one would get you that one in

998
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:38,200
Speaker 1: four hundred thousand. So I think you could put that

999
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:41,640
Speaker 1: that number, the point zero zero one in there and

1000
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:44,920
Speaker 1: then then you let the states execute it and it

1001
01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 1: would fluctuate. So look, I think there are some ways

1002
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:49,160
Speaker 1: that would get in there. I think a balanced budget

1003
01:00:49,160 --> 01:00:51,880
Speaker 1: amendment is something that many have been fighting for. I

1004
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:54,080
Speaker 1: think that would get in there. And the question is

1005
01:00:54,120 --> 01:00:57,400
Speaker 1: do you could you put anything in campaign finance? I

1006
01:00:57,480 --> 01:01:00,920
Speaker 1: think in the campaign finance arena. Maybe it's in instant disclosure.

1007
01:01:01,360 --> 01:01:04,040
Speaker 1: Maybe it's some sort of you know, you know, a

1008
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:08,880
Speaker 1: ban on corporate giving, maybe putting in some sort of

1009
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:12,760
Speaker 1: if you wanted to put a dollar amount restriction, or

1010
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:15,160
Speaker 1: maybe a instead of a dollar amount, again going back

1011
01:01:15,160 --> 01:01:18,840
Speaker 1: to you know, some sort of percentage of and you

1012
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:21,400
Speaker 1: come up with a metric so that you have some

1013
01:01:21,640 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 1: sort of even if it's a moving cap, almost like

1014
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 1: a spending cap. But all of that, given the court

1015
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:29,360
Speaker 1: rulings we've had indicate that it would have to be

1016
01:01:29,480 --> 01:01:34,120
Speaker 1: part of the constitution. But any constitutional convention, Gavin is

1017
01:01:34,160 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 1: going to have to give something to Team Bloe and

1018
01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:39,160
Speaker 1: something to Team Red right in different ways. And so

1019
01:01:40,840 --> 01:01:45,320
Speaker 1: that's why I think redistricting, balanced budget amendment. Maybe age

1020
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:49,120
Speaker 1: limits are probably the most realistic. Maybe a campaign finance

1021
01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:52,000
Speaker 1: think can get in there, But I think that would

1022
01:01:52,040 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 1: be I you know, that's when I'm curious what the

1023
01:01:56,840 --> 01:01:59,640
Speaker 1: various ideas would look like. But I'm growing more. Look,

1024
01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:03,320
Speaker 1: it is time, It is time, and it would be healthy.

1025
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 1: It would be a great civics education for the country.

1026
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:10,800
Speaker 1: But it is time, all right. Last question for this

1027
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:16,560
Speaker 1: one comes from a fellow Floridian, So there you go. Hey,

1028
01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:18,560
Speaker 1: Chuck and Crue just finished listening to the latest episode

1029
01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 1: where you discussed the anti VAXX movement and Florida's proposal

1030
01:02:20,880 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 1: to get rid of vaccine mandates. I did want to

1031
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:25,000
Speaker 1: poke some holes in your assessment that this moment mirrors

1032
01:02:25,280 --> 01:02:27,840
Speaker 1: that of the prohibition movement in the nineteen twenties. Excellent.

1033
01:02:28,200 --> 01:02:31,520
Speaker 1: I would argue the eugenics movement in the nineteen twenties

1034
01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:33,960
Speaker 1: and the post flu pandemic are much closer to the

1035
01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:37,720
Speaker 1: current moment than prohibition. Okay, especially since eugenics played a

1036
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:41,000
Speaker 1: key role in the prohibition movement. True would love to

1037
01:02:41,040 --> 01:02:43,760
Speaker 1: see you have someone on the pod to talk about eugenics.

1038
01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:46,160
Speaker 1: It's rise and influenced during the tens and twenties, and

1039
01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:48,439
Speaker 1: how were you seeing that same thing today? Really enjoy

1040
01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 1: the show a fellow Floridian, I wanted to keep your

1041
01:02:51,840 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 1: name anonymous. Totally get that, totally respect that it's a

1042
01:02:56,840 --> 01:03:00,760
Speaker 1: fair right. You know, that's a fair take on that.

1043
01:03:00,960 --> 01:03:04,480
Speaker 1: We've gotten quite a bit of feedback on the ideas

1044
01:03:04,560 --> 01:03:06,840
Speaker 1: the anti vaxx movement. You know, is it sort of

1045
01:03:06,920 --> 01:03:11,240
Speaker 1: similar at least in how prohibition sort of really you know,

1046
01:03:11,560 --> 01:03:16,280
Speaker 1: somehow gained just enough traction to get implemented after the pandemic.

1047
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:19,480
Speaker 1: And you know that we're a little you know, as

1048
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:24,400
Speaker 1: a society, we we're almost like it's like we're swerving,

1049
01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:27,880
Speaker 1: you know, you know, to avoid something and in the

1050
01:03:28,000 --> 01:03:32,480
Speaker 1: aftermath of the pandemic. But here's what you've inspired me

1051
01:03:32,560 --> 01:03:34,200
Speaker 1: to do, because I had somebody else say, it's not

1052
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:39,440
Speaker 1: just prohibition, my gosh, it's tariffs, and it's and it's immigration.

1053
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:44,720
Speaker 1: You know, we had immigration limits became a huge movement

1054
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:47,520
Speaker 1: back then that sort of also was sort of interwoven

1055
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:52,680
Speaker 1: with eugenics as well. So I will take your suggestion

1056
01:03:53,960 --> 01:03:57,280
Speaker 1: and my crack producing team and we are going to

1057
01:03:57,360 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 1: go find us a good scholar on the nineteen ten

1058
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:03,840
Speaker 1: and twenties, because especially the nineteen twenties look there's so

1059
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:08,080
Speaker 1: many parallels. The Republican Party of the nineteen twenties that

1060
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:12,080
Speaker 1: developed into the nineteen thirties looks very similar to the

1061
01:04:12,120 --> 01:04:16,240
Speaker 1: one we're dealing with today. Arguably one of the greatest

1062
01:04:16,520 --> 01:04:23,000
Speaker 1: sort offt grifts before we've seen the grift that we've

1063
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 1: been witnessing with this current situation that we're in with

1064
01:04:26,560 --> 01:04:31,560
Speaker 1: Crypto and the Trump family was Teapot Dome and the

1065
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:34,640
Speaker 1: great scandal of the nineteen twenties of the Harding administration.

1066
01:04:34,840 --> 01:04:39,640
Speaker 1: So the answer is that's a good idea and we're

1067
01:04:39,640 --> 01:04:44,000
Speaker 1: going to pursue it. So Anonymous from Florida, thank you

1068
01:04:44,120 --> 01:04:46,880
Speaker 1: for helping with the producer idea of the day. And

1069
01:04:47,000 --> 01:04:50,640
Speaker 1: with that, I will see you in twenty four hours