WEBVTT - Surveillance: Vaccine Rollout With Dr. Cacchione 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:12.960 Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 jay Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.360 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Patty 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:29.159 Chad joins us. Now, I kind of a security has 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.080 had a macro strategy. Pizza. What a couple of weeks 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:34.760 this has been. Are you leaning into this, leaning into 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:37.520 some of the euphoria that we can all fail. Yeah, 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:39.559 I'm a little bit cautious. I think we have to 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:42.080 make it through Testa's inclusion. I think a lot of 0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:45.160 this band aid stimulus has already been priced in, So 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:47.320 I'm leaning into a little bit and I still really 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:50.800 expect a big rotation where they have not stocks do well, 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:53.479 because next year I expect stimulus, but I expect, you know, 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:57.320 proper stimulus where we really focus on job creation, where 0:00:57.320 --> 0:00:59.240 we're gonna get a big bang for the buck, may 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:02.600 be involved in a structure bank at public private. So 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:05.160 I view this current stimulus it's nice, but it's nowhere 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:09.160 near sufficient for what we need to get real economic growth. Well, 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:10.959 let's get the policy coal right first, and then we 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:12.600 can get to the market code. The policy code this 0:01:12.680 --> 0:01:15.040 year has just been the only code to get right, 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:17.479 and then you've absolutely now the rest of it lated 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:20.559 to risk. The policy call. You called this an aid, 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:24.679 band aid patriots n night billion. What's on offer today? 0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:27.760 Is that a band aid? These days? Unfortunately it is. 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:29.880 As we're shutting down more and more businesses, I think 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:32.039 you have to make sure those people receive some sort 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:35.160 of compensation. So this is more just to keep things going. 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:38.120 And as I see it, and we're not seeing true 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:40.400 economic spending where we're going to get real growth. We're 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:44.560 not seeing enough spending towards rebuilding, manufacturing, fixing some of 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:47.640 our infrastructure, making sure we catch up and surpass other 0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:50.480 countries on five G technology. So that's what I expect 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:53.000 to happen next year, and that's where we'll get the 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:55.520 real boost. This for now, I think is really just 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:58.480 covering up the problems that are coming from this resurgence 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:01.360 and COVID cases. Covering put the problems. Is that enough 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:03.840 to justify the rally that we've seen on the heels 0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:08.400 of expected support financially from Washington, d C and potentially 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:11.200 the end of the pandemic at some point next year. Yeah, 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:13.320 I think we're reasonably priced. I think the market's kind 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:15.200 of figured out the pandemic. We have to make it 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:18.480 through this struggle right now, but ultimately, with vaccines and 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:21.160 treatments and everything improving, we will get through. At some 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:23.800 point next year, the economis will look very good. And 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:26.720 that's why again, even today, you're starting to see some 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:29.400 of the you know, small caps value stocks continue to 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.680 outperform big tech as this belief sinks in that, hey, 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:35.959 we will have something that resembles a normal economy. It 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:38.160 won't be worked from home necessarily, it won't be going 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:40.120 back to the office. But there's a lot going on. 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:42.440 There's a lot of reason for optimism. There will be 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:45.960 ongoing Central Bank support. I think the Treasury Department will 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:48.000 work well with the Fed. So I don't think we're 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:49.760 miss priced. I just think we're doing for a little 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:52.720 pull back, especially surrounding this Tesla inclusion in the SMP, 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:55.880 which occurs at the closed Friday. Okay, so we'll get 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:59.600 to Tesla perhaps, But I'm wondering about Airbnb and door 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:01.440 Dad and some of these other I p o s 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:04.560 that are coming out with valuations that are reminiscent of 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:07.720 the tech bubble. I mean, the idea that they doubled 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:10.240 in price. Does it give you a feeling of froth 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:13.919 or is this also reasonably valued? You know? I think 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:16.280 that's typical for these sorts of very hot I p 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:19.560 o s where you don't necessarily want to squeeze every 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:22.359 last sign out. You're only releasing a small number of shares, 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:24.959 so it sounds like the company maybe left money on 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:26.959 the table, but the bulk of their shares are still 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:29.440 kind of held in reserve that they can issue going forward. 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:32.080 So I'm not worried about that. I think there's been 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:34.880 a lot of you know, hyperactive trading. We do see 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:39.200 a lot of these small accounts participating. Whether these prices 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:40.880 all last or not, it's a little bit you know, 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.640 up in the air. Um Again, I think this is 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:46.400 really going to depend on what we get in terms 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:49.440 of policy next year, and partly what we haven't talked 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:53.000 about is the negative potential or policy. Does do we 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:56.160 see tax increases again, especially at the corporate level, and 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:57.960 then some of these valuations might look a little bit 0:03:58.000 --> 0:04:01.200 more frothy. Pitch think that comes on the type of 0:04:01.240 --> 0:04:04.640 that conversation at some point twenty one. You know, we've 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:07.960 been looking at this market as we think Congress and 0:04:08.120 --> 0:04:10.040 the Senate and the President are going to try and 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.640 address the you know, everyone's been talking about this K 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:15.720 shape recovery, that downward slope with a K. I think 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.360 that gets addressed, right, and that's all good. That's the positive, 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:20.920 that's the stimulus. The question is that upward slope with 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.440 a K. Do they do something to punish that? Do 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:25.960 they say, hey, you've been really successful, so we want 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:28.120 to take something away from you, or do they let 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:31.279 that slide. I think for the economy it's probably indifferent 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:33.280 From markets, it's much better if they let it slide. 0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:36.720 I think a lot will hinge on that Georgia election 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:40.640 January five, paid it for you. Is that when you 0:04:40.680 --> 0:04:43.040 start to establish what your year out look really looks 0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:46.120 like after that event? Yeah. I think right now we've 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:48.040 got a base case of we're gonna get some decent 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:50.479 amount of stimulus because I think the Republicans are on board. 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:53.440 They kind of failed to get any sort of stimulus done, which, 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:55.560 you know, of all the things I would have expected 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:57.880 President Trump to be good at, it was building things 0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:00.360 we did not get any infrastructure done. So I think 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:03.239 some level that's gonna be done regardless of the outcome. 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:05.359 I think the outcome is gonna switch how much so 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:08.239 if the Democrats one was the more spending, I also 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:10.960 expected to switch the mix. So we'll see a much 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:15.920 bigger environmental and sustainability focus if the Democrats win the Senate, 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:18.839 I think less so if the Republicans retain the Senate. So, 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:21.520 given all this fiscal support that you're expecting and fiscal 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:25.200 stimulus actual stimulus next year, treasury yields, are we going 0:05:25.240 --> 0:05:28.640 to see them above one percent? How high can they 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:31.720 possibly get? No, I think we get them above one 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:34.320 percent fairly quickly. I'm kind of in the near term 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:36.240 called the next few weeks, thinking we're between one and 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:38.440 one and a quarter. I think it's hard to get 0:05:38.520 --> 0:05:42.279 much above even one fifty. I think the Federal Reserve 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:45.040 will work very closely with the Treasury Department to control 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:47.880 any rise. And again, markets I think will be fine 0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:50.000 if we see a rising treasury yield, so just as 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:53.240 long as it's not a rapidly rising treasury yield. So again, 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:57.599 to me, that would really help these small economies, those cyclicals, 0:05:57.640 --> 0:06:00.520 and probably less helpful for some of the big large 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:03.919 tech fowls. Yelling and pal work in hand in hand 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:07.000 PA a chair granted catch ups, pitt a chair of 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:09.440 Academy Securities pay their thanks for everything each year as well, 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:11.920 have a fantastic Christmas. If we don't talk again, put 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:19.800 a chair their Meconomy Securities on this market. Bran Weinstein 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:23.039 joined us now Morgan Stanley had a global fixed income. Brian, 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:24.920 let's talk about the other event of the week. I'm 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:26.440 not even sure that Brexit is the top of the 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:29.839 list for many people. This Wednesday is the Federal Reserve decision. 0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:33.400 What are you looking for from the feed this Wednesday? Yeah, 0:06:33.480 --> 0:06:36.480 good morning, Jonathan, and good move on on breakfit rather 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:40.080 not talking about that, so that will be interesting. I mean, 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:42.039 we think it's a real close call, um, you know, 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:43.760 fifty fifty, which is not I know it times we 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:45.400 get caught out. But at the end of the day 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:49.320 we think they probably won't go for for moving the 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:52.839 the extension of the buying um, better to savor for later. 0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:56.040 If breads rise, better to savor for dry powder took 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:58.360 to the world. We'll probably get some stimulus the equally 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:01.520 markets doing great break evenings are keeping higher. I think 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:03.440 they'll give us some language. I think they're going to 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:07.559 try to link more closely um to the average inflation target, 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:09.800 remind us they're not going to raise rates. There's a 0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:11.280 couple of things that they could do to tell us 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:13.680 maybe when they'll look at this extension of of of 0:07:13.720 --> 0:07:17.040 the buying, the average maturity of the buying. But it's 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:18.840 a close call. They could do it. I don't think 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:20.640 it's a huge deal if they don't, as long as 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:24.880 they give us some language and rates probably keep creeping higher. Well, Brian, 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:28.400 you mentioned Brake Eaven's inflation expectations creeping higher. Do you 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:31.280 think that could be the green light phenomenal yields to 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:35.040 start to pick up through one percent, maybe towards your 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:40.080 targets through twenty one? Yeah, yeah, I think I think 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:42.280 that they could move higher. I mean three. Yeah, the 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:45.600 three seems a while away, um, but getting tenure notes 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:47.920 into the one percent range I think is a very 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:51.040 likely outcome. Do you look across the world of Australia 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:53.880 New Zealand, for example, We've seen raids start to creep 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:57.160 higher there even though the central banks have stayed dubbish. Um, 0:07:57.160 --> 0:07:59.120 it just at some point isn't enough anymore and the 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:01.360 markets get rested us when you see growth, when you 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:03.840 see break evens. I think stimulus would be the last 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:06.800 piece of that in the US. Remember, we need stimulus, right, 0:08:06.800 --> 0:08:09.520 the output gap is still big. We still need growth 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:13.280 in twenty two to upset the lack of growth this year. 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:15.640 Um So stimulus would be a big piece of getting 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:18.040 rates higher, along with the stead not being aggressive on 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:21.920 extending their purchases. So let's talk about the consequences of 0:08:22.320 --> 0:08:26.120 additional quantitative easing purchases, additional purchases by the Federal Reserve 0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:29.120 of Treasuries and other central banks around the world. I 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:32.480 know Morgan Stanley has a forecast about two point eight 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:35.480 trillion dollars of bond purchases or as a purchases by 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:38.640 the major central banks next year. How much of that 0:08:38.679 --> 0:08:42.200 has already been priced into riskier debt versus yet to 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:46.200 be really factored in. That's a great question, and one 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:48.040 and one that we struggled with a lot. There's no 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:49.880 question that a lot of has been priced in, right, 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:52.040 we've we've I mean, how is stimulus not priced in? 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:54.199 How is the vaccine not priced in? But the market 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:58.280 still enjoys when the when these events happen UM and lesten, 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:00.360 I think it's done well and we do get the growth. 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:02.800 There's a reason to believe that this can continue. So 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:04.439 it's hard to look at risk assets and said that 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:06.560 none of this is known. The question I think is 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:09.200 which risk assets does this help the most? And so 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:11.920 when you look at treasuries and you look at investment 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:14.440 grade credit where the most help was given, that's probably 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:16.640 where the least upside is. When you look at the 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:19.559 high old markets, the loan markets, the equity market UM, 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:22.120 some of the emerging markets on anything that benefage more 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:24.839 weaker dollar UM. There are many many things that that 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:27.280 you can still have great outcomes in UM. You just 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:30.600 have to have some of these actual actually come to fruition. 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:32.800 So a lot of investment managers come on the show 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.240 and they say, well, it's time to pick particular bonds 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:38.400 and not necessarily indexes. And other people will say they're 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:41.800 talking their book because their active managers. Is this going 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:45.440 to be a specific bond, specific company story where you 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:48.160 end up with certain defaults and others that do just fine, 0:09:48.800 --> 0:09:52.000 or is this still an index story still a big 0:09:52.160 --> 0:09:56.160 macro beta play on just more QUEUEI and more risk on. 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:00.319 As an active manager, we do like picking on and 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:02.520 certainly this has been a good year for for industries. 0:10:02.760 --> 0:10:04.480 Although listen, it's been a great year for for some 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:07.680 stock pickers, right, some of those certain UM tech stocks 0:10:07.679 --> 0:10:09.760 and things like that advent tremendously well away from the 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:12.160 industries UM. But yes, I think if you stay in 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:14.960 this world, whereas I said, treasuries and investment great credit 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.559 have done the heavy lifting UM, and you're going to 0:10:17.640 --> 0:10:19.800 go into these markets. Now, it's harder to buy an 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:21.679 e M index. It's it's not as smart to buy 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:24.160 a high yield index. There are lots of active things 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:25.840 that you should be doing in sectors that you should 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:28.880 be avoiding UM. So you know, the data play is 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:31.720 probably UM towards the tail, and now some of the 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.360 bigger winners here will be more actively selected based on 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:37.160 the outcomes of where the stimulus goes UM, Which EM 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:40.400 countries are stronger, which EM corporative that are balance sheets, 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:42.839 Those things should matter more now that the data rally 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:46.160 is is at least mostly played out. Bran, let's just 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:48.200 wrap things up there. I think it's really important to 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:50.600 that word avoid that you just used a lot of 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:53.040 people come on shows like this at the moment talking 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:58.240 about embracing cyclicality, any cyclicality, any cyclical aitiaes of this 0:10:58.280 --> 0:11:02.920 market brand that you would avoid, you know, big thing. 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:05.360 To me, it's a lot harder because the cyclical nature. 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:08.000 It's just it's just a bit less cyclical. Um. I 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:10.120 think when I want, when I stay avoid some of 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:12.400 the things in data. When we look at the at 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:14.280 the high high yield markets, we think there's still be 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:16.800 plenty of default right. We still have the energy problems 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:18.760 working through the system in a m there are still 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:21.640 plenty of countries um where where that matters and where 0:11:21.640 --> 0:11:24.000 where stimulus is not getting to those countries and they 0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:26.440 can't do it because of their balance sheet. So I think, no, 0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:28.360 I don't think there's anything in BIX income as a 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:30.400 as a sector that you need to avoid. I do 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:32.640 think it's much more micro, which makes it a little 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:35.240 bit harder to to go into in detail. Brown putting 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:38.120 into hear from you as always Brown Wainstein their moment, Stanley, 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:43.679 thank you sir. The vaccinations begin this week. It is 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.280 a massive moment in the United States and joining us 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:50.920 now is Dr Joseph Catcher ascensioned Chief Medical Officer, Doctor, 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:53.080 fantastic to get you with us on the program. Let's 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:55.880 just start first up, have you got the vaccine in house? 0:11:56.440 --> 0:12:00.120 And talk me through how big this week is? Is 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.480 a big week nine months of of what we've been 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:05.679 dealing with and what the public has been dealing with it. 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:10.120 We're very excited our of the vaccines, how are arriving 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:13.719 today on our many of our hospitals. We have a 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:17.719 hundred and fifty hospitals across twenty states and are we 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:21.640 and just state vaccine deliveries today And we've been preparing 0:12:21.720 --> 0:12:25.280 for that for the last eight weeks. We've had teams 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:30.360 working every day on the logistics and um and delivery 0:12:30.640 --> 0:12:34.079 of the vaccine. So we're really excited about this. We 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:35.480 feel this is the way to get us on the 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:39.760 other side of the pandemic. Well, how that's the case? Doctor, 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:41.720 When you look at the rollout, it's pretty clear to 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:44.920 everyone frontline workers the most at risk in society. First, 0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:48.520 the decisions on who to give it to in house 0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:51.680 first doctor, in the initial rollout the first few weeks, 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:53.719 is that difficult? How do you come around making those 0:12:53.800 --> 0:12:57.959 kind of calls? You know, we we really have strongly 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:02.760 encouraged our employees to UM to get the vaccine UM, 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:05.160 and our employees are stepping up just like they have 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:10.360 through the entire pandemic and are volunteering. We obviously can't 0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:13.320 vaccinate everybody in a single unit in the same day, 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:18.760 so frankly, we're just asking people to schedule their vaccine 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:23.120 with us, and we are managing that scheduling process just 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:26.600 like we want any other appointment. Our frontline workers are 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:32.080 really the hospital workers. Both nurses are, respiratory therapist, patient 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:35.800 care text. Those are the people that were prioritizing, and 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:39.160 critical care nurses in particular, which really have bear a 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:41.560 huge part of the brunt of this, as well as 0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:44.720 the respiratory therapists and patient care text We we really 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:48.680 want to get them vaccinated early UM, and so we're 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:52.280 prioritizing that group. Our frontline physicians are also very important. 0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:56.559 Our critical care specialists are infectious disease specialists or polenologists. 0:13:56.840 --> 0:14:01.040 We were just we're very excited for ways and really 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:04.079 strongly encouraging them to get the vaccines. Dr Coketona, It's 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:07.400 interesting how the initial rollout will be viewed as a 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:10.880 template for the further and more extensive rollout that is 0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:13.840 expected perhaps in the first half of next year. How 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:17.280 complicated is it logistically given the cold temperatures that you 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:19.800 have to keep the vaccine in addition to some of 0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:25.440 the other just typical vaccine logistical issues. You know, it's 0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:27.920 um it is a challenge. You know, we have to 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:31.120 store between minus sixty and minus a d degrees. We 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:35.200 have to be prepared to receive the vaccines cold from Viser. UM. 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:37.920 I will say that Fiser. I've been on logistics calls 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:41.640 with the Visor folks. They've done an incredible job orchestrating 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:47.040 this since I'm very uh impressed at the way Fiser 0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:51.440 has approached us. It has, uh it has posed a problem. 0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:53.600 We've had to go out and get a bunch of freezers, 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.080 some of those where we can't get freezers. Visor has 0:14:57.080 --> 0:15:00.240 made it so that the shipping boxes that they come 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:03.560 and can be recharged with dry ice and we can 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:07.680 store them in the shipping containers. So I think they 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:11.520 have done an incredible job doing that and providing us 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:16.840 backup plans in case freezer uh freezers were unavailable. As 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:20.120 you can imagine, it was hard to the number of 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:23.280 freezers that we need for health system our size. We're 0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.520 getting there, but we're not quite there yet, which raises 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:27.480 a question about who pays for all of the extra 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:29.640 equipment that's required in order to roll this out in 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.640 effective way. I know there has been some money appropriated 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.320 that has not yet been passed in Washington, d C. 0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:40.600 Beyond your particular organization, a sense in hospitals and health 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:44.280 care facilities, is this going to be expensive? Who is 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:47.240 going to pay for it at the end of the day, 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:50.240 you know, as part of our health system. You know, 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:53.680 our CEO told us at the beginning, take care of 0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:56.520 our associates, take care of our patients, and worry less 0:15:56.560 --> 0:16:01.440 about the economics. Uh and a global pandemic like this, 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:03.880 with the number of people that have been affected by 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:06.520 this and the number of lives lost, we have put 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.760 our our patients and our associates first. And as for 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:13.800 that reason, UM, we haven't thought about that as much. 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:17.320 It is something that weighs on our mind over the 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.160 long haul, but for the short term, we're really focused 0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:24.120 on delivering this vaccine and UM and for us, we're 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:26.360 paying for it. You know, the government has provided us 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.680 Care to Act funding, but we are paying for it 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:32.640 out of ascension and this is part of a a normal 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:35.280 business for us. Their technologies to come up all the 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:38.400 time that we have to pay for before somebody actually 0:16:38.440 --> 0:16:40.800 reimburses us. So this is just part of a normal 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:43.760 business for us. And um, you know, our commitment to 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:48.400 this is overwhelming, to say the least. So just before 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:50.280 we let you run, I think a massive issue over 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:52.560 the last nine months, you know, has been compliance around 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:56.960 social distancing, mosque wearing, et cetera. It's not just about 0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.000 the first vaccination. You've got to get to come back. 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.120 They've got to come back for the second, the second hit. 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:04.359 It's going to be hard enough to get people to 0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:06.600 step up for the first one. Can you walk me 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:09.520 through the kind of techniques the marketing around this that 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:11.840 you think is effective that you'd like to say in 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:16.680 the coming months. Yeah, it's really about education, education, education, 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:20.679 you know, and we have significant issues in um, some 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:24.119 of our populations that have trust issues. UM, you know, 0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:27.720 we have the Black African American population, Hispanic population that 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:30.520 have trust issues with the medical community. We have to 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:33.639 continue to educate, we have to be culturally sensitive, we 0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:36.359 have to use our leaders are our Hispanic leaders and 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:40.280 our Black African American leaders to actually help educate those 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:43.320 populations to give them the trust to get this vaccine, 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:46.600 because it's a very important The more vulnerable you are 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:50.960 to illness, the more the sicker you are um, the 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:53.840 more likely this vaccine is to help you. Uh, And 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:55.840 so we have to get that message out. It's going 0:17:55.880 --> 0:17:59.920 to be about education, education, education, And I just want 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.359 emphasize one of the things, you know, as part of 0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:05.480 this whole thing we've been we've been absorbed with with COVID, 0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:08.640 but there is a secondary pandemic that's out there right now, 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:11.399 and that is people are avoiding care, avoiding coming to 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:16.000 our hospital. We're strongly encouraging people only to seek the vaccine, 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:19.240 but also to continue to seek care for other medical donta. 0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:21.320 We would love to continue the conversation with you through 0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:23.760 the next couple of weeks and the next several months 0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:26.199 this rollout and really picks up to catch on that. 0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:32.680 Thank you very much joining us now as low to 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:35.640 rite FS Investments chief economist Allow, right, if you could 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:37.960 build on that, that that would be fantastic what you're looking 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:41.440 for this Wednesday. Yeah, you know, so, I agree. I 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:43.280 think you know they've talked about wanting to do something 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:45.560 fairly soon. I think they are going to try to 0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:48.919 be more specific about locking in those forward expectations and 0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:53.720 continued financial market support and economic support. I think something 0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:56.600 that we really forget is if we look back at 0:18:56.640 --> 0:19:00.400 prior expansions. We don't know when this recession is going 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:02.040 to end, but if you kind of look back ann 0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:05.560 and they one two thousand one, the FED was actively 0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:10.119 cutting interest rates in the first eighteen months of those expansions, 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:13.120 Like they are really used to actively supporting an economy 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:15.360 as we're coming out of a recession. And I don't 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:18.040 think it's a it's a you know, it's not a coincidence. 0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:21.480 If you look back in two thousand and nine, interest 0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:24.280 rates towards zero, you know, puts them in a sticky 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.960 spot where they can't really you know, do that traditional support. 0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:31.000 So the most active quantitative easy that we really got 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:34.359 was two thousand eleven and two thousand thirteen, Like that 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:37.399 is just a sign of how, you know, years into 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:41.600 the expansion, they were still having to support our economy. 0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:46.000 So I really think obviously very different recessions, very different 0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:49.640 expansions I would expect, But the point is that they 0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:52.679 are really gearing markets up for the idea that they 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:55.560 are going to have to be accommodating them for years 0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:58.520 to come. And I think Mike's point is important. Markets 0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:01.600 love to look for a change, They to be forward looking, 0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:05.719 and you know, they're not worried about changing expectations right 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:08.000 now the rate hike. They're worried about those five year 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:10.960 forward expectations and any kind of YO curb st deepening. 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:13.359 They want to make sure to sit on that. Laura, 0:20:13.400 --> 0:20:15.439 this is a really important point, the idea that the 0:20:15.440 --> 0:20:18.000 FED is run out of a lot of ammunition, given 0:20:18.040 --> 0:20:20.600 where rates are, given how much money has already been 0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:23.320