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Speaker 1: Hello, They're happy Thursday. This is Chuck Todd another episode

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Speaker 1: of the Chuck Podcast. Today is an episode for political junkies.

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Speaker 1: My guest is Nathan Gonzalez from Inside Elections. For you

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Speaker 1: old school folks, that is the old Rothenberg Political Report.

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Speaker 1: Nathan Gonzalez worked for him. He now is the owner, operator, publisher.

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Speaker 1: He is one of my favorites to talk to. Those

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Speaker 1: of you that have been listening to me for a

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Speaker 1: long time, will we'll know and respect him. He's as

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Speaker 1: good as it gets, as good as my friends over

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Speaker 1: at the Cook Report who find that analytic ground without

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Speaker 1: without getting caught up in partisan noise, if you will.

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Speaker 1: So it's a political junkie episode, which means this is

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Speaker 1: a good time for me to do a little bit

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Speaker 1: of updating of of things that I've caught on the

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Speaker 1: campaign trail that I find of interest. But before I

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Speaker 1: get to that, I do think before we get to

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Speaker 1: the parlor games of actual elections, I think it is

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Speaker 1: time for the parlor game of which cabinet secretary is

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Speaker 1: going to leave? I'd say first, but if you count

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Speaker 1: the National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, I guess the answer

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Speaker 1: is second. Right, he's sort of the first player to

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Speaker 1: be dismissed or fired, or asked to leave or promoted.

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Speaker 1: He is still waiting for a confirmation hearing to be

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Speaker 1: the ambassador to the U N I know, and that

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Speaker 1: if you're going, oh yeah, I forgot about that guy,

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Speaker 1: you're not alone. Because this is how the Trump era,

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Speaker 1: I think, treats the space time continuum, right, which things

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Speaker 1: seem to get old quickly, Like what happens in a

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Speaker 1: day feels like it happened a week ago. It is

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Speaker 1: you constantly, you know, have that feeling of you know,

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Speaker 1: like that old saying, you know, I spent a week

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Speaker 1: one night in Nell Passo, you know, type of mindset,

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Speaker 1: you know, whatever cheap line you're trying to go. But

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Speaker 1: the point is is that that's what it feels like

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Speaker 1: when it covers Trump. I've used an expression, I think

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Speaker 1: I've used it here before. Every day is a week

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Speaker 1: and every week of the day. That is absolutely I

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Speaker 1: think how the Trump era works. But there are three

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Speaker 1: cabinet secretaries that feel as if two of which I

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Speaker 1: think are in the danger zone. Because we know this, right,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump dismisses people as soon as he views them

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Speaker 1: as problems. For him. Okay, not necessarily problems for you. Right,

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Speaker 1: Because if you were to ask me who the cabinet

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Speaker 1: secretary that should be the most vulnerable to being fired,

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Speaker 1: I think the easy answer is Robert Kennedy Jr. Right,

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Speaker 1: the measles outbreak, yet another record number of Americans contracting measles.

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Speaker 1: It is hard for me to sit here and say

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Speaker 1: that this is an issue that is beyond the influence

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Speaker 1: of one person, right, I mean Kennedy. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to say Kennedy alone is responsible for this, but Kennedy

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Speaker 1: is the norse star of this movement that has suddenly

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Speaker 1: gotten that it has made measles a disease now, a

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Speaker 1: childhood disease that we thought we had pretty much eradicated

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Speaker 1: at least in the United States, is coming back in

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Speaker 1: full force. And I think this is one of those

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Speaker 1: cases it's directly him. It is directly him, this movement

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Speaker 1: mainstreaming this nonsense, making people question all this. I think

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Speaker 1: this is the and you'll hear me talk about a

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Speaker 1: little bit with Nathan Zalaz. I think it's I think

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Speaker 1: it's a under the radar issue that is going to

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Speaker 1: harm the chances of some Republican candidates in suburban districts,

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Speaker 1: and the suburban districts are the swing districts, and being

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Speaker 1: outside the mainstream of exposing kids to a disease that

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Speaker 1: there's no business having them exposed to. But for these

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Speaker 1: bizarre conspiracy theories about vaccines that Kennedy has been championing

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Speaker 1: so on paper, and when you look at his record,

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Speaker 1: there's no bigger failure already in this administer. Nobody has

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Speaker 1: put more people in harm's way, put more people's health

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Speaker 1: at risk than this loan individual. In fact, I think

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Speaker 1: we should name this measles variant Measles RFK, just in

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Speaker 1: the same way we had COVID nineteen, right, because it

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Speaker 1: was a virus that first debut in twenty nineteen. This

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Speaker 1: is a virus that has been reanimated by arguably one

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Speaker 1: person and the leadership of one person, and that is

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Speaker 1: the Health Secretary Bobby Kennedy Junior, but for all intentsive purposes,

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Speaker 1: despite what I think is catastrophic decision making by him

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Speaker 1: in these vaccine panels. I mean, this is it's one

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Speaker 1: of these stories. I'm like, where's you know, if I

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Speaker 1: were running a major news organization right now and I

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Speaker 1: were looking for an issue that matters to more people,

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Speaker 1: that has a bigger impact. I'll tell you what I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be covering is the Epstein story. I know that

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Speaker 1: that gets clicks, and that's the shiny metal object. What's

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Speaker 1: happening at the Health Human Services Department, what Kennedy is doing,

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Speaker 1: the number of people potentially in harms way that he

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Speaker 1: has put people, what they've done to vaccines, what it

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Speaker 1: is this is doing to pediatricians all over the country.

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Speaker 1: The nightmare This to me, this is the story. This

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Speaker 1: is a bigger story than anything else that's happening. I

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Speaker 1: would argue in many of the things that there's no

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Speaker 1: doubt the tariffs are going to be important. There's plenty

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Speaker 1: of important stories and important developments and important things that

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Speaker 1: the Trump administration is trying to do is doing. Uh

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Speaker 1: and and I understand that there's a lot of a

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Speaker 1: lot of choices to make when it comes to what

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Speaker 1: are you gonna what what what? What angle? Are you

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Speaker 1: going to be a dog with a bone? Well, i'll

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Speaker 1: tell you in the place I would be looking, And

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Speaker 1: because it's in some ways this is an area that

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Speaker 1: should be a political right, in the area that we

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Speaker 1: have politicized everything, right, politiciayliticizing of vaccines. And yes, you

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Speaker 1: can say well this, you know, we've had vaccine you know,

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Speaker 1: political fights before, but it's always been operated on the fringes.

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Speaker 1: This has got into the mainstream and more importantly, it

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Speaker 1: is directly impacting the health of children in this country,

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Speaker 1: right fricking now, So I say this in that they

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Speaker 1: should be Kennedy. Should you know, Kennedy never should have

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Speaker 1: gotten there. I think there is no doubt that Bill

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Speaker 1: Cassidy is the Louisiana senator who was essentially the swing

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Speaker 1: vote on whether or not Kennedy. There's a lot of

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Speaker 1: reporting evidence that had Cassidy voted no in that committee,

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Speaker 1: three or four other Republicans would have followed him. Kennedy

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Speaker 1: would never have gotten out of committee, and he wouldn't

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Speaker 1: have gotten confirmed into this post. Cassidy took Kennedy at

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Speaker 1: his word, and it turned out Kennedy lied to him,

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Speaker 1: lied to him. I understand the political senator Cassidy has

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Speaker 1: himself in it's a re election year. I think he

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Speaker 1: is he is somebody that that that votes is I really,

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Speaker 1: you know, look, this is a guy that is willing

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Speaker 1: to take a tough vote. Right, He voted to convict

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Speaker 1: President Trump after Janua over his actions or lack of

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Speaker 1: actions in both cases on January sixth. So I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to sit here and say Cassidy has been been

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Speaker 1: rolling over or anything like that. But at some point,

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Speaker 1: you know, he's going to have to address this and

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Speaker 1: admit that Kennedy just out and out lied to him.

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Speaker 1: And what are the consequences to that He's you know,

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Speaker 1: we'll see. Maybe we saw with Tom Tillis. Once Tillis

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Speaker 1: finally decided he wasn't running for reelection, he became Senator

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Speaker 1: bulbarth right. And if you were wondering what that reference is,

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Speaker 1: it's a fun movie from the nineties. Warren Batty plays

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Speaker 1: a senator who decides I don't give a shit it

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Speaker 1: anymore and literally lets it all fly and he goes full.

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Speaker 1: It became a thing when some somebody decided I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: I'm going to tell truths that are uncomfortable or tell

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Speaker 1: truths that will be politically incorrect, however you want to

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Speaker 1: look at it. You know, as a as a political reporter,

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Speaker 1: we always are are. We love when any politicians decides

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Speaker 1: to suddenly become a Bullworth type of type of figure,

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Speaker 1: if you will, willing to willing to say things that

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Speaker 1: will make their own party upset and just sort of

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Speaker 1: speak truth to power in a way regardless of the

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Speaker 1: consequences politically orctorally, et cetera. But what is every day

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Speaker 1: I think about this, every day that you see the

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Speaker 1: harm that Kennedy is doing to this country, to the

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Speaker 1: health of kids left and right. I you know it

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Speaker 1: is uh no, it's a political nightmare for Cassidy. But

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Speaker 1: at some point I think he's gonna have to address this.

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Speaker 1: So I set that aside and political Trump does. Oh Kennedy.

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Speaker 1: I do believe Kennedy was the gateway drug for voters

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Speaker 1: who were not very not very comfortable with Trump but

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Speaker 1: didn't like Biden, and then we're looking for a way

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Speaker 1: to Trump. Kennedy was that bridge, and I do think

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Speaker 1: it was. It was more helpful to to Trump than

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Speaker 1: I think folks realize keeping him out of there. I

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Speaker 1: do believe Kennedy was more of a problem had Kennedy

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Speaker 1: stayed on the ballot that his voters were. He was

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Speaker 1: taking potential voters away more away from Trump than Kennedy,

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Speaker 1: even though the Democrats treated him as if he was

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Speaker 1: a bigger threat to them. But the real pool right

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Speaker 1: now of which cabinet secretary does Trump think is doing

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Speaker 1: political damage to him. It's a race now between Pete

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Speaker 1: haig Seth and Pambondi, Right, Pete haig Seth. What is

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Speaker 1: going on in that Defense department? There is you know,

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Speaker 1: the when the decision came down last week that we

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Speaker 1: were the United States was not going to fulfill its

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Speaker 1: obligations on some key weapons shipments to Ukraine. It apparently

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Speaker 1: was a Pentagon decision that was not told in advance

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Speaker 1: to the National Security Advisor or the Secretary of State,

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Speaker 1: who of course is the same person the White House.

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Speaker 1: Apparently everybody was blindside. Trump has publicly admitted he was

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Speaker 1: kind of blindsided. He still won't say who made this decision.

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Speaker 1: It's clear it's Pete haig Seth, and certainly the finger

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Speaker 1: pointing is coming and there's a you know, I always

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Speaker 1: love it. They want to blame it on some under secretary.

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Speaker 1: It's like, hello, Secretary of Defense is the one has

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Speaker 1: to sign off on this, so the buck stops with him,

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Speaker 1: pure and simple, It's pretty clear that haig Seth can't

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Speaker 1: doesn't have a very effective administration staff. He's his management

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Speaker 1: style seems to be scaring people off. He already has

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Speaker 1: gone through a round of recriminations. He sees a leaker

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Speaker 1: around every corner. Appears to be some paranoia that is

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Speaker 1: that is creeped in into frankly, what looks like the

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Speaker 1: mismanagement of the Pentagon. And look, if you don't have

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Speaker 1: somebody you know to bring when you bring an outsider

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Speaker 1: in at the Pentagon, you're more likely that outsider is

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Speaker 1: going to get eaten alive if if they don't figure

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Speaker 1: out how to and it's pretty clear to me hegg

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Speaker 1: Seth's being eaten alive. So it is, you know, I

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Speaker 1: cannot imagine he survives the calendar year. I don't know

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Speaker 1: now if he survives the summer. And it will have

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Speaker 1: political implications because I think the leading the most likely

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Speaker 1: replacement for hag Seth, because if you decide to do this,

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Speaker 1: it's admitting that this is a police You know that

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Speaker 1: this was as bad as everybody thought it would be.

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Speaker 1: There were questions about whether he was qualified for the

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Speaker 1: job in the first place. Had Tom Tillis already had

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Speaker 1: Tillis had announced, had Tom Tillis announced he wasn't seeking

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Speaker 1: reelection in January rather than just in the last couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks. Tillis would have been a vote against hagg Seth.

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Speaker 1: Hagg Seth would not have made it, so he does

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Speaker 1: not have a lot of support already. So the point is,

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Speaker 1: if Trump decides to dump Hagseeth, that the baggage is

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Speaker 1: too much and it's inevitable he's going to get dumped.

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Speaker 1: The question is, what's the next trigger point to do it?

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Speaker 1: Do you go with the easiest confirmation vote you can get,

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Speaker 1: which would be Joni Ernst a veteran herself, she seems

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Speaker 1: to be not as interested in seeking reelection these days

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Speaker 1: in Iowa. I think she does want the job. There

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Speaker 1: was a time a lot of people thought Tom Cotton

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Speaker 1: wanted the job. I think Tom Cotton now, my guess

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Speaker 1: is he would not want to be the second Defense

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Speaker 1: secretary with Trump. I think he would rather would rather

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Speaker 1: focus on potentially being the next Senate Republican leader after

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Speaker 1: Thune or in that direction. So I do think that's

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Speaker 1: one to watch. And then, of course, now it's the

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Speaker 1: Attorney General. Pambondi. You know the fact that you have

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Speaker 1: many in the MAGA media world openly wondering why Pambine

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Speaker 1: hasn't been fired already for miss whatever the truth is

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Speaker 1: on Epstein, As I said yesterday, did she lie then

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Speaker 1: or is she lying now? Right? She is caught. And

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Speaker 1: it is intriguing to me that the President seems to

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Speaker 1: be singling Bondi out, not cash Baitel or Bongino. But

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Speaker 1: it is worth remembering Bondi was a compromised choice, right.

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Speaker 1: She wasn't his first choice for Attorney General, Matt Gates was.

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Speaker 1: By the way, it wouldn't shock me if if Trump

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Speaker 1: decides to fire Bondi and then gobez back and renominates

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Speaker 1: Gates and almost says dares them to vote him down

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Speaker 1: this time. Maybe he does it, maybe he doesn't. Right,

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Speaker 1: it's obviously that is acquiring a new baggage. But there's

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Speaker 1: you know, sometimes Trump sees an opportunity to rush into

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Speaker 1: something that most of us would think would be politically perilous,

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Speaker 1: but it almost it's almost like it's a distraction, right,

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Speaker 1: And if everybody piles on Gates, they're not paying attention

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Speaker 1: to how tariffs are ripping up the economy, at least

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Speaker 1: as far as the base is concerned. And he may

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Speaker 1: feel as if he needs to throw the base of

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Speaker 1: bone if he fires Bondi, Right, it's not like he's

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Speaker 1: going to go more moderate or go more mainstream with

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Speaker 1: Attorney General nominee. Maybe he moves Dan Bongino over there, right,

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Speaker 1: maybe he tries to elevate both you know, or Todd

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Speaker 1: Blanche or somebody really close to him, and sort of Look,

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Speaker 1: none of that is good for the rule of law.

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Speaker 1: None of that is going to mean. I think we've

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Speaker 1: already politicized both of those departments to the point where

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Speaker 1: anything that comes out of the FBI or the Department

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Speaker 1: of Justice is deserves to be scrutinized by any of

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Speaker 1: us questioning whether there's truth there, if it's just a

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Speaker 1: political hatchet job, and so as it's all. But that's

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Speaker 1: been by design that we know. So the point is this,

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Speaker 1: if you're playing the cabinet firing pool, and you know,

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Speaker 1: if I were an odds maker here, you've got hag Seth,

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Speaker 1: you've got Bondy, and you've got Kennedy, two other outsiders

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Speaker 1: to be thinking about. There's always a chance Howard Lutnik

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Speaker 1: says something so stupid that it embarrasses Trump, and he's

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Speaker 1: got to go. He's a little loose with the loose

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Speaker 1: with the lips. Then again, I have noticed that the

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Speaker 1: White House has tried to keep Lutnik some media appearances

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Speaker 1: at a minimum because he's usually not helpful. His enthusiasm

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Speaker 1: plays well with some corners, but he has a way

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Speaker 1: of introducing sometimes more problems than solving them. And then,

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Speaker 1: of course Scott Bessen could get promoted to the FED chair,

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Speaker 1: but does does he? You know, he's the fact that

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Speaker 1: Trump wanted to see if there was any appetite in

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Speaker 1: the Senate for somebody holding both the job of Fed

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Speaker 1: Chair and Treasury. It looks like he's not going to

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Speaker 1: force the hand on that politicizing the Fed. Look in

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Speaker 1: some ways the next FED Chair, I mean, I think

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Speaker 1: that's the worst job that you can have now in

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Speaker 1: the Trump administration, because you know, here Powell, first term

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Speaker 1: Trump appointee. I'd like to remind people right that that

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Speaker 1: Trump is unhappy with right. You know, he he used

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Speaker 1: to be funny to me, the way he'd go after j.

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Speaker 1: Powell and Chris Ray, you know, these awful deep state

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Speaker 1: figures who were both appointed by Donald Trump. But anyway,

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Speaker 1: but I digress, But the next fed chair that replaces

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Speaker 1: Powell is going to be seen as essentially an economic

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Speaker 1: puppet of Trump, and every one of their decisions are

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Speaker 1: going to be seen through a political lens. It is

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Speaker 1: a terrible idea for monetary policy. This is going to

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Speaker 1: become a huge issue, and I'll be it'll be interesting

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Speaker 1: to see how the US Senate handles this. There's clearly

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Speaker 1: a handful of Republicans concerned about this, But are they

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Speaker 1: going to be concerned enough that they're willing to pick

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Speaker 1: a fight with Trump over it? I think we know

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Speaker 1: the answer to that, right, Bill Cassidy was concerned about Kennedy,

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Speaker 1: Tom Tillis and Jony Earns were concerned about it. Pete

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Speaker 1: Hegsa how did they all vote? Right? So I think

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Speaker 1: we know the answer to that. So anyway, if you're

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Speaker 1: looking for odds, whether it's minus or plus, I still

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Speaker 1: I probably at this point, you know, if BONDI can

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Speaker 1: survive the week, she probably survives at least through labor day.

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Speaker 1: But maybe she doesn't survive the week. And we do

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Speaker 1: know this. Trump sometimes makes a decision to get rid

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Speaker 1: of somebody but waits a couple of weeks because it

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Speaker 1: was on a look like he's sort of responding to

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Speaker 1: a media feeding frenzy. But in the case of Bondy,

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Speaker 1: he may need to appease, he may need to throw

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Speaker 1: a bone to the MAGA world, who is very distrustful

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Speaker 1: of this. Because and this gets it to what I

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Speaker 1: said yesterday. I think there are certain conspiracies that it

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Speaker 1: won't matter what the government says. Folks that believe in

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Speaker 1: the conspiracy will never be satisfied. That's my thesis on Kennedy.

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Speaker 1: Even as we do find more information that the CIA

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Speaker 1: has been withholding or lying for for decades that I

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Speaker 1: don't know if there's any amount of information the government

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Speaker 1: could release that would somehow put that is conspiracy to

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Speaker 1: bed uh. And we're probably in that same scenario right

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Speaker 1: if you're if you're in the Epstein conspiracy column, I

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Speaker 1: don't know what information the government could put out that

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Speaker 1: would satisfy you. If it doesn't I if that information

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Speaker 1: doesn't confirm your worst uh, your worst assumptions about what

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Speaker 1: may have happened. So so I'm going to still go

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Speaker 1: that hag Seth goes before BONDI. But and that is

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Speaker 1: because I think it's labor Day. But if somebody goes

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Speaker 1: this month. My guess is it would be BONDI. Before

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Speaker 1: hag Seth, I want to turn out to a few

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Speaker 1: other things that have caught my eye that I wanted

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Speaker 1: to sort of give a few thoughts on. I found this,

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Speaker 1: you know, earlier this week, and I've talked with a

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Speaker 1: few folks about this. We talked with it in yesterday's

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Speaker 1: podcast with Jim and Marjorie about this idea that the

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Speaker 1: Democratic lawmakers, as they've been doing these town halls, are

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Speaker 1: finding many of their supporters want more fire from them. Here.

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Speaker 1: They were all anonymous quotes. Let me just read you

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Speaker 1: some of them, right, These are that these town halls.

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Speaker 1: So one House Democrat tells Axios this idea that we're

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Speaker 1: going to save every norm and that we're not going

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Speaker 1: to play Republicans games. I don't think that's resonating with

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Speaker 1: voters anymore. Another quote, Brad Schneider said this, We've got

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Speaker 1: people who are desperately wanting us to do something, no

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Speaker 1: matter what we say. They want more, said another lawmaker anonymously.

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Speaker 1: Our own base is telling us that what we're doing

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Speaker 1: is not good enough, that there needs to be blood

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Speaker 1: to grab the attention of the press and the public.

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Speaker 1: A Fourth House democrat said constituents have told him civility

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Speaker 1: isn't working and to quote, prepare for violence, to fight

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Speaker 1: to protect our democracy. Fifth House democrats said to Axios

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Speaker 1: that people online have sent me crazy shit, told me

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Speaker 1: to storm the White House and stuff like that. Now

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Speaker 1: there's always and of course there's always people on the

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Speaker 1: internet willing to say crazy stuff that we know. You know.

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Speaker 1: Another House democrats said, people who are angry don't accept

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Speaker 1: that they're angry beyond things. They're just almost like rabbit

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Speaker 1: about it. Very similar to what the feelings on the

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Speaker 1: right that we're developing after twenty fourteen and in twenty

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Speaker 1: fifteen when they didn't like what the conventional field of

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Speaker 1: presidential candidates were saying and they rallied around Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: Said another lawmaker, it's like the Roman colisseum. People just

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Speaker 1: want more and more of this spectacle, right, going to

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Speaker 1: get arrested, going to confront politicians. You know, these lawmakers

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Speaker 1: aren't doing it on their own. They're doing it in

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Speaker 1: many ways at the urging. And yet you know, did

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Speaker 1: Rocanna say he'd like and he's been Remember he came

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Speaker 1: on this broadcast and says, I, you know, I don't

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Speaker 1: think just cursing is the answer, and he said the

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Speaker 1: most effective pushback to Trump's unconstitutional actions is to model

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Speaker 1: a reverence for the Constitution and the rule of law.

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Speaker 1: I don't know about that, right, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: that's going to work, said another House Democrat. The expectations

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Speaker 1: aren't just unreal, they're dangerous and said this set a

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Speaker 1: ninth lawmaker. And I'll leave you with this. I actually

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Speaker 1: said in a meeting, when they light a fire, my

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Speaker 1: thought is to grab an extinguisher. And this House Democrat said,

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Speaker 1: somebody yelled, why don't you have you tried gasoline? Look,

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Speaker 1: this was something I've pointed out that the election of

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Speaker 1: Trump a second time was likely to start to create

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Speaker 1: almost a reactionary revolution on the left. That sort of

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Speaker 1: looks at how the Republicans through Trump have seized power,

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Speaker 1: and they've in many ways seized power with minority support. Right,

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Speaker 1: you know, yet to get over fifty percent on anything,

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Speaker 1: the ability to seize power breaking norms to do it.

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Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell and being an example of the various norms

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Speaker 1: he broke in order to pack the Supreme Court with

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Speaker 1: a conservative you know what he did with the Scalia seat,

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Speaker 1: and then what he did with Amy Cony Barrett, and

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Speaker 1: this stuff is accumulated and you do get to the

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Speaker 1: point where now I think the risk for Democrats is,

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Speaker 1: you know, I've had people question to me, you know,

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Speaker 1: why do you hold the Democrats to a higher standard

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Speaker 1: than the Republicans? And I'm like, the Republicans have set

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Speaker 1: a low bar. The Democrats campaign is saying, hey, we're different.

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Speaker 1: We want to protect these norms, we want to protect

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Speaker 1: these institutions. If you also become the party that wants

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Speaker 1: to burn down these institutions, good luck. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think there are a chunk of voters, including the voters

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Speaker 1: that gave the Democrats a Senate majority in twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: and gave the Democrats the White House in twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: and gave the Democrats a House majority in twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 1: I think they voted for him because they were the

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Speaker 1: normal party, They were behaving normally, they were the institutionalists,

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Speaker 1: and that that was a positive reason for center right

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Speaker 1: suburbanites to dump Trump and vote with the Democrats. What

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Speaker 1: happens to those voters on that front, and I think

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Speaker 1: that's the risk. I understand the feeling I understand the passion,

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Speaker 1: I understand the frustration, but I don't know if this

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Speaker 1: is the right way to go. Now. Speaking of this,

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Speaker 1: there was another quote that jumped out of me this

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Speaker 1: week when you start to think about because there's two

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Speaker 1: ways to look at the current situation. If you're a Democrat,

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Speaker 1: you can look at it the way many are right

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Speaker 1: now in the base and are just appalled and want

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Speaker 1: to fight fire with fire, or you sort of you

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Speaker 1: sort of tack to how the wind is blowing and

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Speaker 1: take advantage of that situation. Here's a quote that caught

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Speaker 1: my eye a couple days ago. It was from Trump's

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Speaker 1: poster Tony Fabrizio, who admitted the following quote. For a

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Speaker 1: Republican candidate voted to cut medicaid to pay for tax cuts,

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Speaker 1: they would lose by twenty one points. The point is

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Speaker 1: he did various scenarios. Now, look, Tony Fabreezi was arguing

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Speaker 1: that there are parts of the Big Beautiful Bill that

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Speaker 1: if you highlight them, can be popular. But he's admitting

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Speaker 1: that if the narrative of the Big Beautiful Bill is

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Speaker 1: that Republicans cut Medicaid to pay for tax cuts, that

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Speaker 1: that is where the medic that that becomes a huge

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Speaker 1: political loser, and he's he's the reality check for MAGA. Right.

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Speaker 1: You can, oh, no, it's just it's just a work

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Speaker 1: requirement here, or it's not this, and if you're explaining,

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Speaker 1: you're losing, right. And so far Republicans have had to

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Speaker 1: explain the Medicaid situation over and over and it doesn't

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Speaker 1: get any better. And this is a case wheen when

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Speaker 1: you're in the opposition, you don't have to get your

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Speaker 1: details right. You can get to you get to do

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Speaker 1: a narrative right. When you're defending, you have to worry

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Speaker 1: about the details. It's it is as frustrated as you

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Speaker 1: as you may seem if you just sort of tactically

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Speaker 1: look at the bread and butter issues and tactically look

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Speaker 1: at the issues that you know voters are going to

429
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 1: care about the most. The voters that are not paying

430
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: attention to right now, the voters that are not tuning

431
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 1: in for every sort of update on Epstein or iced

432
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: attentions or things like that, those that are going about

433
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 1: their everyday lives upset the cost of living is still

434
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: too high. And then suddenly the price of healthcare. If

435
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: you're an individual and you're on the exchange or you're

436
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 1: all this stuff and everything's got more complicated that that's

437
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: likely a better political winner. It's not sexy, it's not

438
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: going to get you an extra, it's not got to

439
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 1: do well and the YouTube algorithms or any of that nonsense,

440
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 1: but it is going to resonate with a voter if

441
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 1: you can get to the voter. Speaking of that, and

442
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 1: here's a couple of things I want to preview that

443
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: we're going to talk with a little bit with Nathan Gonzales.

444
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 1: It's interesting to me a Democratic poster named Jill Normanton

445
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: put out a survey on behalf of a super pac

446
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 1: that's clearly going to be helping the Molly McRae McMorrow

447
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 1: I think is her name. She's a state legislature in

448
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 1: Michigan running for the US Senate, and there's a member

449
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 1: of the US House, Haley Stevens, that is running also

450
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 1: running in the Democratic primary, and this pollster made the

451
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: note that one of the best negatives against Stevens was

452
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: voting with Joe Biden, you know, voting for Joe Biden policies,

453
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 1: and that that would be if Stevens were the nominee,

454
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,959
Speaker 1: a potential negative that she would have to overcome in

455
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:41,679
Speaker 1: running against in running against the likely Republican nominee. There,

456
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,479
Speaker 1: Mike Rodgers, Well, let me tell you that, you know,

457
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 1: I still think it is it is going to be

458
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 1: worse to have voted with Trump on some of these

459
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: issues than to have voted with Biden. But in the

460
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 1: case in fair unfair, in the case of Rogers versus Stevens,

461
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 1: Rogers won't have a voting record having voted with Trump

462
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 1: versus because he served in Congress, I think pre Trump

463
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 1: it'll be different for Stevens. It's just interesting that that

464
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: was seen as a net negative. It's a reminder, and

465
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 1: we discussed this with Nathan that you're going to see

466
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 1: a lot more Democrats run very quickly away from Joe

467
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 1: Biden throughout this How they do it in various ways

468
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 1: is going to be unique and probably depend on the state.

469
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 1: Two other things I want to point out. One is

470
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 1: from our friend Christian Soulfice Anderson at Echelon Insights. They

471
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 1: just released a fun little project that they do. It

472
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: is It is where they do a large survey and

473
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: they put people in Let me get this right, where

474
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: do they put They get four categories populous conservatives, liberals, libertarians,

475
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 1: all right, And what they did They use nine questions

476
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: on cultural issues, nine questions on economic issues, and then

477
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 1: they mapped voters onto their what they called their political compass.

478
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 1: So that means there was only four categories. Your populists,

479
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 1: your conservatives, your liberals, your libertarians. The largest group liberals

480
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: at forty three percent, the second largest group conservatives at

481
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 1: thirty one percent, the third largest group populoists at twenty

482
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 1: two percent, and the fourth and the smallest group were

483
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: libertarians just five percent. So the pure libertarian vote is

484
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 1: actually five percent. Here's what was a little fun. Twenty

485
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,400
Speaker 1: two percent of voters. Let me get this right here,

486
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 1: twenty two percent of voters call themselves culturally conservative and

487
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 1: economically liberal, while only five percent are culturally liberal and

488
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 1: economically conservative. Anyway, I found it interesting. It was surprising

489
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 1: to me that they're in I think the definition of

490
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: liberal right. I do think that they're missing a box

491
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 1: here in that conservatives and libertarians are sort of naturally

492
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 1: I think, slightly right leaning together. The populace, I think,

493
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: right now, that's that's the up for grabs vote, right,

494
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 1: there's some conservative populace, Trump populist and there's also plenty

495
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: of progressive populace of that twenty two percent, but the

496
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 1: liberal column seems a little big, right when you see

497
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: those other surveys. When people ask to self describe liberal, moderate, conservative,

498
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 1: conservative is usually the biggest number. Moderate, Sometimes it's moderate

499
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: that's the bigger number. Liberal is usually third in that category. Now,

500
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 1: they didn't offer a moderate right, and one wonders if

501
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 1: they had split up liberal between sort of progressive and

502
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 1: moderate liberal. If but then I kind of suddenly you're

503
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 1: you know, that's the compass is north southwest east. It's

504
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 1: not north northeast, south south anyway, You get my point.

505
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: When you pick four categories, I get what you have

506
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 1: to do. If I were to quibble on anything there,

507
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 1: I think their liberal category was probably a bit too

508
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 1: if that's the If that's the number you ended up with,

509
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: I'm going to close with I think a development that

510
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:12,719
Speaker 1: has not gotten enough news and that is enough attention,

511
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 1: at least to campaign junkies, and that is we are

512
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: in the beginning of what has been dubbed in the

513
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: past the invisible primary for twenty twenty eight, and most

514
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: of the action these days is on the Democratic side

515
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 1: of the aisle for obvious reasons. You know, with a

516
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: sitting vice president that is likely to be a candidate

517
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 1: for president, J d Vance, a sitting secretary of State

518
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 1: that may or may not also be running, you kind

519
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 1: of the Republican field and Republicans like Glenn Youngkin can't

520
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 1: truly get caught campaigning just yet, or your Ran Paul's

521
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: they've done a little bit. But I think the Republican

522
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 1: field is going to be longer to form. But the

523
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 1: Democratic field has actually been more active than I think

524
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 1: people realize. And I might argue, here we are six

525
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 1: month into twenty twenty five, and I did my own

526
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: little collection of of reporting here, and we've had you know,

527
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 1: there are three early states that I think when you

528
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 1: visit those states, you're sending the message that you're thinking

529
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 1: about running for president. Those states are still Iowa, New Hampshire,

530
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 1: in South Carolina, and currently right now, Gavin Newsom is

531
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: in the middle of a trip to South Carolina where

532
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: he swears he has no interest in running for president.

533
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 1: Why are you in South Carolina right which currently would

534
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 1: be the most likely state to be first on the

535
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 1: Democratic side of the aisle. Although I do think there's

536
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 1: a movement in the DNC to go back to putting

537
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 1: Iowa first in that because if you can, when you

538
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 1: look at the party's problems appealing to rural voters, forcing

539
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 1: presidential candidates to get to know rural voters better might

540
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 1: actually be more helpful to the party than just trying

541
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 1: to start in a place like South Carolina. But I

542
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 1: thought it would be notable. You know, we already have

543
00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 1: arguably we've had ten Democrats of some you know that

544
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: I think are would be considered serious presidential candidates who

545
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: have made some who have made the trek to either Iowa,

546
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 1: New Hampshire or South Carolina. The ten are Pete Boodagic,

547
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, Rubin Diego, JB. Pritzker, Amy klobashh Rocanna, Gavin Newsom,

548
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 1: Wes Moore, Tim Walls, and Mark Kelly. So Mark Kelly

549
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: did a South Carolina the Gun Violence town Hall happened

550
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: to decide to do that in South Carolina. Tim Walls

551
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 1: went to the South k was the keynote for the

552
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 1: South Carolina Democratic Convention. Wes Moore was also a part

553
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 1: of that event and did the fish fry. He of

554
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: course also visited South Carolina to let people know he's

555
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: not interested in running for president. Hint. Gavin Newsom is

556
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: in South Carolina. Now, we've had three New Hampshire visitors, JB. Pritzker,

557
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: Amy Clobashar Rocanna, and we've had three Iowa visitors, Pete Bootage,

558
00:32:56,520 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 1: it's Bernie Sanders, and Ruben Diego is going there. Looks

559
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 1: like he's going to do a little state bear visit.

560
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 1: And of all the people on this list, right, every

561
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 1: one of them is somebody that's been talking about it

562
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 1: or been you know, sort of Rocanna arguably he's been

563
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: preparing a presidential race for decade. Gavin Newsom's been trying

564
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 1: to find a way in for a decade. It's Ruben

565
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 1: Gego and the amount of buzz i hear about him

566
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 1: more than anybody, it's he's the candidate that I get

567
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 1: the most questions about people. Hey tell me more about him.

568
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 1: I think it's it's some of it is from donors

569
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: who are saying, you know it, you know is there

570
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 1: is is he the viable Hispanic Democrat that could that

571
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 1: could lead the national Party. He's He's been making some

572
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 1: noticeable moves to the center, particularly on immigration, but he

573
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: is absolutely in some ways moved closer to the center

574
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: than Mark Kelly. Uh in his state. Kelly's another one,

575
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 1: is he running? Is he not running? I you know,

576
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: I'm more inclined to believe Diego's likely to run. I

577
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 1: think Kelly. I think Kelly didn't love the vetting process.

578
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: With the VP situation. We'll see, but uh, I think Diego.

579
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 1: If there's an Arizona Democrat that runs for president, I

580
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: think Diego's more likely to do it. So anyway, he's

581
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: somebody I'm very interested to see how he would play

582
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 1: at the state fair, what kind of response he'll get,

583
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 1: how he'll do there. I just think he's a of

584
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:29,359
Speaker 1: all the of all the new candidates that have been

585
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 1: testing the waters, Diego is the one that that that

586
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 1: I'm most curious about. In many people that I talked

587
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: to in the donor community and the activist community, everybody's curious, Hey,

588
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 1: let's see him. It's sort of like, huh, that's interesting.

589
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 1: Let's see how he does. Let's find a couple of

590
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,359
Speaker 1: town halls, let's see. You know, does he have it?

591
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,839
Speaker 1: Is he does he have the skills to be the

592
00:34:55,840 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 1: political athlete that the Democrats need. So anyway, why there's

593
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 1: my Hodgepodge. I'm always collecting these headlines, and like I've promised,

594
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 1: approximately once a week where I just sort of empty

595
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 1: my political brain before we get to a little bit

596
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 1: of a political junkie infused episode, which this one is.

597
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 1: And so coming up we'll sneak in a quick break.

598
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 1: We're gonna have a conversation with Nathan Gonzales, and I

599
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 1: want to pinpoint one specific issue we talk about. You

600
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 1: want to talk about a underradar issue that just happened

601
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 1: that could impact politics and money in politics in a

602
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: big way. The IRS announced earlier this week that they

603
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: were just no longer going to threaten a church's tax

604
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 1: exempt status if they engage in politics. This is a

605
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 1: b f D, folks.

606
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 2: And.

607
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 1: It is Look, we've known that there's been politics at

608
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 1: the pulpit for a long time. There's been sort of

609
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: not so subtle ways that this happens. You hand out

610
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 1: literature in the parking lot, et cetera, et cetera. But

611
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 1: there's always been at least an attempt to create some

612
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 1: line between that, or at least in my lifetime, there

613
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:04,439
Speaker 1: has been. But if you do this, does this mean

614
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 1: we're going to just start you know, you'll hear. But

615
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 1: Nathan Gonzales openly wonders, and perhaps we should all fear

616
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: if we start getting sort of phony churches that pop

617
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 1: up that are really nothing more than super packs using

618
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 1: a religious using religion in order to make donations to

619
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: their political campaign tax deductible. Let's just say, look, we

620
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,720
Speaker 1: know that the rules with money and politics barely exist.

621
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 1: We have now gotten rid of yet another rule that

622
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 1: is likely only going to accelerate more dark money in

623
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 1: American politics. So on that upb note, I'm gonna sneak

624
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 1: at a break and when we come back, we're going

625
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: to go even deeper on the midterms with my friend

626
00:36:50,040 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 1: Nathan gonzalas. So to take some stock in where we

627
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 1: are after we're essentially after you know, the first six

628
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: months of the off year, the mid term campaigns are

629
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 1: starting to come together, money reports have come in. So

630
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 1: it's always a good time I think to check in

631
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 1: with my friend Nathan Gonzales at Inside Elections. Mister Gonzales,

632
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 1: good to see gat to see you.

633
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, these there's no off here, Chuck, I am. I

634
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 2: am going to start to ban the term off year.

635
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 2: There is no off year.

636
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 1: That's funny that One of my guilty Pleasure podcasts is

637
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 1: a sports card podcast called there Is No Off Season Me.

638
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 1: You know, it's the same mindset, and I think you're right.

639
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 1: With politics, there is there is no there is no

640
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 1: off year.

641
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, argue arguably some of the most important developments of

642
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 2: a race happened in these years before the actual election,

643
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 2: because people members are retiring and people are positioning themselves

644
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:57,799
Speaker 2: and raising money, and some of these races are going

645
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 2: to be effectively over by the time we get to

646
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 2: next year, particularly ones that are decided in the primary,

647
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 2: because all the jockeying and positioning has already taken place.

648
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 1: Well, why don't we start there, because look, look, I

649
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 1: want to get into you know what kind of disruptive

650
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 1: third party politics is real and not real and a

651
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 1: little bit of that stuff. But look, we got a

652
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 1: whole bunch of fundraising reports. Retirement season, you know, there's

653
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 1: always sort of three chunks of retirement season when it

654
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: comes to incumbent officials. There's the immediate at the new year, right,

655
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 1: we went through that, we kind of know those. Then

656
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:34,839
Speaker 1: there's always the summer, Right, We're going to get some

657
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 1: retirements beginning about now through Labor Day right, the oh boy,

658
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 1: this last session really burned me out or whatever it is.

659
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: Maybe there's a family situation, so we're likely going to

660
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: get one more round. And then there's the end of

661
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: the holiday retirements, right after spending time with the family Thanksgiving, Christmas.

662
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 1: So we're the beginning of what could be a second

663
00:38:55,840 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 1: sort of chunk of retirements. I don't think, and correct

664
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong. I don't think there's any new

665
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 1: statewide sort of scrambles left. Right, do you think most

666
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 1: of the Senate map? I can't think of a senator

667
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 1: you know. Maybe there's one more retirement there in Susan Collins, Right,

668
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 1: she's one. I'm still not a hundred pervent convinced, But

669
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 1: do you feel like the state map is pretty settled

670
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:24,240
Speaker 1: on the Senate level?

671
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 2: I think Susan Collins is still She has said things like,

672
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 2: you know, I intend to or.

673
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 1: I plan to.

674
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 2: I went back at the last cycle, the last time

675
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 2: she was up, and she didn't make an official decision

676
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:40,839
Speaker 2: until December of the you know of So we're six

677
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 2: months away from where she made her official decision last

678
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 2: time she was up. Well. Shet Journal reported that Jony

679
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 2: Ernst may be reconsidering after her comments to the town

680
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 2: hall about you know, we're all going to die. Senator

681
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:58,800
Speaker 2: Jeff Merkley of Oregon has not made an official decision.

682
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 2: Those rumors were a little Rumors about him not running

683
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 2: were a little hotter a few weeks ago than.

684
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 1: They are now. But he's he's still out there.

685
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 2: That would be a Democratic primary that would set off

686
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 2: a kind of a cascade of events because you'd probably

687
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 2: have two or three of the Democratic women in the delegation.

688
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 2: So there's still some uncertainty. And right now we are

689
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 2: at seven Senate retirements. The average going back ninety years

690
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 2: is five, so we're above average for Senate retirement.

691
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 1: So we could have another one or two. And that

692
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 1: doesn't count Marshall Blackburn running for governor or Michael Bennett

693
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 1: running for governor because those But it does count Tommy

694
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 1: Topperville because his seat was open, right.

695
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 2: Correct, Yeah, with Blackburn and Michael Bennett, they're not up

696
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 2: this cycle. But if they win, then they would get

697
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 2: to pick their own pick their own success or, at

698
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:54,239
Speaker 2: least for the.

699
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 1: Short term per year two. You know, it's interesting on

700
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 1: Jenny Earnest. I think it actually is coincides with some

701
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 1: and I have at the beginning of this podcast, which

702
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 1: is sort of the you know, I think you know

703
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 1: me thinks there's going to be an open cabinet slot

704
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 1: in the next six to eight weeks. Right, it just

705
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,719
Speaker 1: feels a that's just what Trump does. Be between Pete

706
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 1: haig Seth, Pam Bondy, maybe even a promotion for Scott Bessen,

707
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 1: but like you could feel there's going to be some turnover.

708
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 1: I bring up Pete Hegseth because I do think if

709
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: Hegseth goes, it's johny Ernst, that that she's you know

710
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 1: that that is that is uh, that's a job she

711
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: wanted the first time. She was as angling for it

712
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 1: as the best you can. I know, there's a lot

713
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,760
Speaker 1: of people in the Trump orbit that are pretty anti

714
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:47,279
Speaker 1: those Iowa Republicans still mad at Kim Reynolds for helping DeSantis.

715
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 1: So there's and Joni Ernst and Reynolds are closed. So

716
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if that would be a problem, uh

717
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:56,359
Speaker 1: for for Jony Ernst on that front, but that would uh,

718
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:01,280
Speaker 1: that's my let's just say I have it's a well

719
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:04,799
Speaker 1: reported guess as what Joony Ernst is waiting for. How's

720
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 1: that and it could with Hegg Seth.

721
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 2: You know, we just had the president just had that

722
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 2: cabinet meeting that was open to the press and and

723
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:13,960
Speaker 2: the President was asked that question and he he turned

724
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 2: to his side and asked Hag Seth and exit. Then know,

725
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 2: he's like, what about John, you know, talk about John Rackliffe,

726
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:21,280
Speaker 2: And so I don't know, you know, if Trump thinks

727
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 2: that that made him look bad, you know, then you

728
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 2: know Trump does not want to be made, you know,

729
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 2: look foolish or or bad in any light. So if

730
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:31,439
Speaker 2: he thinks he Seth contributed to that, then he would

731
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 2: be in trouble.

732
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 1: No, And it does feel as if right now, I mean,

733
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 1: if you're if you're, if you're the White House, what

734
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 1: cabinet agent there? I would argue there's two cabinet secretaries

735
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: that give the White House the most headaches. One has

736
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 1: been eg Seth with decisions getting made without White House

737
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 1: finding out. That's a that's a big headache, right that

738
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 1: upset your rubios and all this stuff with the Ukraine decision.

739
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 1: And then the other one is Kennedy. I mean, in

740
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 1: this Measles outbreak that that arguably the variant ought to

741
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 1: be named for Kennedy at this point because it feels

742
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 1: as if he has been the leader of this movement

743
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 1: that suddenly I mean every yeah, I feel like every month.

744
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 1: Now we get we've just broken a record for the

745
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 1: largest measles outbreak we've had since you know, we had

746
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 1: eradicated it. So but I don't think Kennedy's in trouble yet.

747
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:18,839
Speaker 1: As far.

748
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 2: I have to remember why Kennedy got to this point.

749
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 2: I don't think it was because Trump was in love

750
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 2: with his policies or his views on vaccines. It was

751
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:31,280
Speaker 2: because Kennedy was a potential threat as a third party

752
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 2: candidate to Trump. Trump, you know, made a deal, say hey,

753
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 2: what can we do? Did not have you run to,

754
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:40,799
Speaker 2: you know, to divide my vote? And so hey how

755
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 2: about a chemist? All right, let's go for it.

756
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 1: I will say this. You know, Trump's not known for

757
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 1: living up to his his deals. He's lived up to

758
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 1: that one at what I think to potentially huge political danger.

759
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 1: And I'm curious. I think this is the one of

760
00:43:56,160 --> 00:44:00,320
Speaker 1: the hidden midterm issues is the management of health. Not

761
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: not the medicaid cuts that we know, but what Kennedy

762
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 1: is doing over there, you know, it is putting parents

763
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 1: in uncomfortable situations and school that that's one of those

764
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 1: that you particularly in sling suburban districts, if you're looking

765
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 1: for an issue that could sort of I think, be

766
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 1: surprisingly effective, it's that one.

767
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 2: And it's it's immediate. It's so the health of your

768
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 2: family and your kids is so ever present. And if

769
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:34,919
Speaker 2: there is a if you go into a voting booth

770
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 2: or you're at your table with your ballot and and

771
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 2: you have this anxiety over the direction of your family

772
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 2: or the direction of the country, then you are going

773
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:45,879
Speaker 2: to be inclined to not vote for the party that's

774
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,840
Speaker 2: empowered that is, that is contributing to that anxiety.

775
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:52,240
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about big picture. The conventional wisdom

776
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 1: is already I feel like been set, which is and

777
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:57,839
Speaker 1: in some ways the Republicans have embraced the idea they're

778
00:44:57,840 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 1: the underdog, are ready to try to hold the house,

779
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 1: and that it almost seems like it's an automatic that

780
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 1: Democrats are going to pick up a house. And you know,

781
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,479
Speaker 1: there's a lot of certainly a lot of tea leaves

782
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:09,359
Speaker 1: to read right now that look very similar to twenty

783
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:14,839
Speaker 1: seventeen and twenty eighteen and these special elections. And yet

784
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 1: there are some things that aren't the same. So you know,

785
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:24,439
Speaker 1: let's let's tackle it this way. If Democrats don't pick

786
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 1: up the House, what are you seeing right now? That

787
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:30,320
Speaker 1: would start to help explain how that happened.

788
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 2: For that scenario. First, history is working against Republicans and

789
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:38,800
Speaker 2: for Democrats. So what is the scenario where Republicans hold

790
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 2: it is if things are going well, right, if people

791
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 2: if the bill that Republicans just finally passed and got done,

792
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 2: if that leads to these economic economic boost that Republicans

793
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 2: are saying it's going to. If people feel satisfied with

794
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 2: if they're making more money and they're spending less money

795
00:45:56,920 --> 00:45:59,799
Speaker 2: on their day lives. I think that that leads to

796
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 2: it a satisfaction. That would be difficult then to defeat

797
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 2: enough or win enough House seats for Democrats to win.

798
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 2: So it's possible. It's just there's so such a such

799
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 2: a small margin for air Democrats only need a neck

800
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 2: game of three seats, you know, to get to that majority.

801
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 1: So I look at two other things. Obviously, that's the

802
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 1: that's the obvious, Like, if that goes well, I don't

803
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: think that's going to go great, right, But in our

804
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 1: short attentions fan society. That's something that could burn itself

805
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 1: out for all we know, or the impact isn't there yet, right,

806
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,879
Speaker 1: Like I know the tariff bomb is going to hit hard,

807
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:42,919
Speaker 1: it just hasn't hit yet, right. And by the way,

808
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 1: it's only now that I think even some tariffs from

809
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 1: April are going to start, you know, those those those

810
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 1: smaller shipments from China. It's only in the next We're

811
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,280
Speaker 1: only going to start feeling the effects of it beginning

812
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: in the next couple of weeks, so a couple of months.

813
00:46:57,080 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 1: So it's possible that that continues to grow. But I

814
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 1: want to throw up to this is a more divided

815
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 1: Democratic Party than it was in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen.

816
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 1: What does that mean for this cycle? Than your mind?

817
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:14,720
Speaker 2: From the end, I believe that having a common enemy

818
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 2: is a powerful is a powerful thing, and that Democrats

819
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 2: will unite to vote against Republicans. Now does it affect turnout?

820
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:27,719
Speaker 2: Do fewer Democrats turn out because they are disaffected with

821
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 2: democratic leadership, direction the party, lack of a leader, lack

822
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:35,359
Speaker 2: of a message, whatever. Yeah, that would contribute to Republicans

823
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 2: doing better than expected in the mid terms. I'm just more,

824
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 2: I think that there can be two things. I think

825
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 2: two things can happen at the same time that Democrats

826
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:47,759
Speaker 2: are divided and searching for a new leader, searching for

827
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 2: a message, and also turn out to vote against Republicans.

828
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 2: I don't think that those are two mutually exclusive situations.

829
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,239
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting. And then, of course you could

830
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 1: have the situation where they their success in twenty six

831
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 1: makes them think twenty it's automatic and it's not right,

832
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:09,399
Speaker 1: just like what happened a little bit in twenty two. Right.

833
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, the parties and politicisins are terrible at learning lessons

834
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 2: from election results. They think that it's because voters are

835
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 2: in love with them, when really it's just because usually

836
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 2: because they're tired of the other party, they're tired of

837
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 2: who's in power. They want to change, they want security, economically, physically,

838
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:29,840
Speaker 2: all of those things. And so yeah, Democrats learning the

839
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 2: wrong lesson from the twenty twenty two election was one

840
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 2: of the biggest probably mistakes in at least recent political history.

841
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, there's no doubt about that. And whether it's

842
00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:43,560
Speaker 1: how the Biden White House interpreted it or how everybody

843
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:45,160
Speaker 1: else did, there's no doubt.

844
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 2: Democrats did well in twenty twenty two in spite of Biden,

845
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:51,719
Speaker 2: not because of him, but that with not taken that

846
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:53,760
Speaker 2: way by important democrats.

847
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 1: I think we have multiple books that have proven this

848
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 1: to be the case, now probably more.

849
00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:59,799
Speaker 2: Are you right, Are you having a book too, Chuck,

850
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 2: he doesn't have a book at this point.

851
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 1: And you put them all together and it's like, you know,

852
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 1: I always say, you know, these the Biden books are

853
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 1: now turning into what I used to say about the

854
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 1: Trump books. The details are different, but the story is

855
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 1: the same, you know what I mean, Like it'll be

856
00:49:15,160 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 1: it'll be a new anecdote, a new version of a

857
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 1: Hunter Biden story, but it's really the same story, you know,

858
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:25,359
Speaker 1: it's really a form of the same story that, Oh,

859
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:28,359
Speaker 1: look at how they tried to block keep Biden from

860
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 1: being in public, or look at how they did it

861
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 1: this way, right, and you just you start to put

862
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:35,240
Speaker 1: together these stories and it's it's uh, it is it

863
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:36,280
Speaker 1: continues to shock.

864
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 2: Yet they thought he was in a good enough position

865
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 2: to debate public debate, I will not.

866
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 1: I mean, that's well, this is why the idea, well,

867
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 1: that's why the Okhams raiser in me thinks that it

868
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 1: was a setup. I, you know, not for everybody, but

869
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 1: that's some you know, the that there were plenty of

870
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 1: people who thought we got to do a debate before

871
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 1: we passed the last exit to go to the nomination,

872
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 1: and given how it played out, given now everything we've

873
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 1: learned about concerns the previous eighteen months to that debate

874
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 1: and moment, I certainly think the circumstantial case is pretty

875
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 1: strong that at least some people who were advocating the

876
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 1: early debate had a different motivation. Ye look, and here

877
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 1: was the you know, and here's the way I could

878
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 1: rationalize it. Hey, if he does great, all the better. Right,

879
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,399
Speaker 1: Like you know, it was, Hey, let's throw him into

880
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 1: the deep end. He either swims or he doesn't.

881
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 2: Right, And it took about fifteen seconds to figure out

882
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 2: what was going on, what was happening in that debate.

883
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 1: The twenty twenty five elections are which can both be

884
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:55,960
Speaker 1: overly sometimes overinterpreted, but I think over time have actually

885
00:50:56,000 --> 00:51:01,280
Speaker 1: served as a pretty good appetizer for the following midterm.

886
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:04,440
Speaker 1: I look back at nineteen ninety three, the surprising Republican

887
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 1: success foreshadowed what was a huge year, a huge changing

888
00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 1: of the guard for Republicans, a new wave of Republicans

889
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:17,359
Speaker 1: following the elections of Christy Todd Whitman, George Allen, Ruddy, Giuliani. Right,

890
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:20,160
Speaker 1: that was all happened in ninety three, and it definitely

891
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 1: foreshadowed ninety four. I think twenty seventeen with Ralph Northam

892
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 1: and Phil Murphy, and you know that foreshadowed twenty eighteen. Here,

893
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 1: I think Virginia feels like it's the outlier, right, the

894
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:38,759
Speaker 1: federal government worker situation, the Supreme Court ruling only is

895
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 1: going to make Abigail Spamberger's job that much easier than

896
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 1: you know, the federal government workers don't always turn out.

897
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 1: They're turning out this cycle. I don't think that's going

898
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 1: to be an issue. So we take that one off

899
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 1: the table. The two races that I think are going

900
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 1: to tell us a little bit about the mid terms

901
00:51:55,160 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 1: going forward for me or less Virginia and more New

902
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 1: Jersey in New York for different ways. But where are

903
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 1: you is that? Do you concur with that?

904
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:05,640
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean with both New Jersey and Virginia, I

905
00:52:05,680 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 2: would say it's about the margin and not the winner.

906
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:11,719
Speaker 2: I mean Democrats should win New Jersey in Virginia. I

907
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 2: mean these are Democratic leaning states that usually elect a

908
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 2: Democrat under normal circumstances. So if Democrats don't win either

909
00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 2: of them, that's a big that should.

910
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 1: Be a selling sid idea.

911
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, but then look at the margin, because the

912
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:27,280
Speaker 2: margin will tell us more about is the Trump coalition

913
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 2: transferable to other Republican cants? In New Jersey, for example,

914
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 2: New Jersey was closer than Trump got closer than expected.

915
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:37,359
Speaker 2: New Jersey was almost as close as Arizona, like who

916
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:39,320
Speaker 2: would have who would have thought that in the twenty

917
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:42,600
Speaker 2: twenty four election. And so can't how close can Chitdarelli

918
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:46,800
Speaker 2: get to Mikey Cheryl? That will be because in Schitderelli

919
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:49,239
Speaker 2: is interesting because he's he has done a full kind

920
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:50,360
Speaker 2: of about face on Trump.

921
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 1: Christy to Donald Trump basically right. And so but what

922
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:56,480
Speaker 1: what is the margin?

923
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 2: And when you know, I think Mikey Cheryl does have

924
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 2: does have the advantage in New York. I'm a little

925
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:08,960
Speaker 2: colder in terms of what it tells us about federal

926
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:11,359
Speaker 2: you know, twenty twenty six federal elections, because it's such

927
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 2: a unique circumstance. I mean, the established. I think there

928
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 2: is an appetite against the democratic establishment, but the people

929
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 2: that are involved in that Democratic race or the current mayor.

930
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:27,479
Speaker 2: Abrams and Cuomo have just been such flawed. There's such

931
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:31,840
Speaker 2: flawed individuals politically and personally that I don't know that Okay,

932
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:36,440
Speaker 2: they got thrown out or they were denied, denied their position,

933
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:39,800
Speaker 2: does that mean that every random Democratic member of Congress

934
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:40,560
Speaker 2: is going to lose?

935
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 1: I'm just well, let me throw a recipe together though

936
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 1: for you, I think, and maybe Democrats should be glad

937
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 1: this is the case. I think, how I'm very curious

938
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:56,279
Speaker 1: to see how Cheryl handles Mom Donnie because I think, look,

939
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,759
Speaker 1: the spillover what happens in New York City is going

940
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,919
Speaker 1: to matter to the New Jersey northern suburbs those folks

941
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 1: commute in and out right there is there are specific

942
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:09,400
Speaker 1: issues including congestion pricing that we know that that has created,

943
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:12,400
Speaker 1: you know, can create some tension even among fellow Democrats

944
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: on that on that issue, because obviously it's New Jersey

945
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:19,799
Speaker 1: folks that are paying that paying that price. But here

946
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 1: you have Cheryl decidedly on one end of the Democratic

947
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 1: Party spectrum, Mam Donnie decidedly on the other end, right,

948
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:32,840
Speaker 1: and Mom Donnie is going to be a larger figure

949
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 1: hovering over the New Jersey governor's race, then he will

950
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 1: anywhere else. Okay, And that's something that I'm just curious about.

951
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 1: How does Cheryl handle it. I had an interesting conversation

952
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:48,440
Speaker 1: with Ramamanuel for my Newsphere show for this weekend. The

953
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:51,879
Speaker 1: full episode will be on this weekend. He singled that out.

954
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:53,560
Speaker 1: He goes, it's going to be interesting to see how

955
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:56,480
Speaker 1: she manages that, and it's a good test. He had

956
00:54:56,520 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 1: a you know, can you can you u? Can you

957
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 1: thread that needle so that you don't alienate your own

958
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 1: progressive base that you still need to show up and

959
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:09,520
Speaker 1: at the same time comfort swing voters that you're not

960
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 1: a socialist right and.

961
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:14,359
Speaker 2: Right if she can do it without alienating the base,

962
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 2: but it does give her an opportunity to look more

963
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 2: moderate compared to someone who is not that far not

964
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:23,279
Speaker 2: that far away, so she can't. Democrats can't afford to

965
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:26,839
Speaker 2: have a dip and turnout, neither can Republicans, but she will.

966
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 2: I think that is more relevant than looking ahead to

967
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:33,399
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six and say, okay, is the let's get

968
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:35,719
Speaker 2: even beyond twenty twenty six When we're looking back at

969
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty six elections. Are we going to be saying, yeah, wow,

970
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:41,880
Speaker 2: that election was a referendum on the mayor, the mayor

971
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:44,680
Speaker 2: of New York or the failed mayoral candidate of New York.

972
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:48,920
Speaker 2: We just haven't had elections like that. We should be

973
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:51,200
Speaker 2: open minded, but that's not usually how the election.

974
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:52,879
Speaker 1: Oh but I do think that you're going to see

975
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:55,839
Speaker 1: a lot more prime democratic primaries. I mean, and that's

976
00:55:55,880 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 1: what I'm curious about it. And when at what point

977
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:00,759
Speaker 1: are you going to be able to sort of have

978
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 1: the data to show you know, obviously it'll be a

979
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:06,400
Speaker 1: few months, like, are we going to see more competitive

980
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 1: democratic primaries as cycle than we've seen in say a decade? Right,

981
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:13,319
Speaker 1: I'm my gut is that's what's going to happen. But

982
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 1: you know, let's wait for the data. What are you

983
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 1: seeing so far? Do you have an indate? Do you

984
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:22,200
Speaker 1: feel like you're you're seeing more people thinking about jumping

985
00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:26,000
Speaker 1: in more sort of challenges to sitting incumbents.

986
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:28,080
Speaker 2: Yes, is the short answer. I don't have the specific

987
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 2: the specific number, but I think there is more, particularly

988
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 2: among challenges to older Democratic members.

989
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:38,319
Speaker 1: Our friends at the Hotland started and Old started the

990
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:41,799
Speaker 1: Old Congressional List, which I thought was a good idea. Yeah,

991
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 1: it's to keep track.

992
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:46,359
Speaker 2: Of this, Yeah and so, and those will be those

993
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:49,040
Speaker 2: are largely I'm trying to think of an exception in

994
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:52,319
Speaker 2: very democratic district Martie be.

995
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 1: The only one that isn't like, she's in a swing

996
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:58,520
Speaker 1: district and she's over seventy five. She's arguably you know,

997
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:01,440
Speaker 1: but that would be one where the national Party might

998
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:03,840
Speaker 1: step in and say, don't do this. She's like, she

999
00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:05,600
Speaker 1: could be the only one that can hold that district.

1000
00:57:05,680 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 2: So, so what is the fallout from let's say, you know,

1001
00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:13,520
Speaker 2: a dozen or more competitive Democratic primaries in Democratic districts. Well,

1002
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:19,760
Speaker 2: if you get a new generation of younger, more progressive Democrats,

1003
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:22,600
Speaker 2: that could push the party to the left. But it's

1004
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 2: going to be hard to push the party to the

1005
00:57:24,160 --> 00:57:26,920
Speaker 2: left without the White House, without the Senate. You know,

1006
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:29,920
Speaker 2: it'll be it'll be rhetoric more than it will be

1007
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:34,800
Speaker 2: specific policies. So, I yeah, Democrats are wrestling for their

1008
00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 2: new identity. I think there will be it will get

1009
00:57:37,480 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 2: a little bit younger, but the fallout for the general

1010
00:57:41,320 --> 00:57:44,240
Speaker 2: elections it's going to be I think minimal because of

1011
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:45,760
Speaker 2: the districts where these are taking place.

1012
00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 1: A few uh, there was This is a bit of

1013
00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 1: news happened in the last couple of days. And I

1014
00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 1: know you've followed sort of the over the years, the

1015
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 1: sort of the line of religion and uh uh the

1016
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 1: influence of religion on political campaigns, and you know, sort

1017
00:58:07,720 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 1: of just out of nowhere, over the last couple of days, right,

1018
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 1: the I R S announced that they're no longer going

1019
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:18,360
Speaker 1: to enforce this. And I guess it was not a law.

1020
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:20,439
Speaker 1: I mean, I always thought it was just a law,

1021
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:22,200
Speaker 1: but it may have been I guess an executive order

1022
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:28,440
Speaker 1: by LBJ. But this idea that active churches, synagogues, mosques

1023
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 1: cannot really really cannot engage in directly engage in politics,

1024
00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:38,560
Speaker 1: and now they're saying no churches now can endorse political candidates.

1025
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:43,080
Speaker 1: It just sort of happened, and there's just sort of

1026
00:58:43,080 --> 00:58:45,480
Speaker 1: a shrug of shoulders. I feel like two decades ago,

1027
00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:47,760
Speaker 1: this would have been monumental, Right, this would have been

1028
00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 1: a huge story, big dealer, small deal as far as

1029
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:52,200
Speaker 1: you're concerned.

1030
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:56,000
Speaker 2: I'm going to say bigger deal than the attention that

1031
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:58,720
Speaker 2: it's gettings where You're's why you're talking because of the

1032
00:58:58,760 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 2: fallout is there's multiple there's multiple things. I mean, there's

1033
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:07,439
Speaker 2: the political kind of campaign finance aspect of it that

1034
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:11,000
Speaker 2: some people say, well, churches have been doing this for

1035
00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 2: years anyway, whether it's African American churches or whether it's

1036
00:59:16,120 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 2: now kind of Trump focused churches that this has been

1037
00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 2: going on. Now, it's just it can be more official.

1038
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:24,240
Speaker 2: But I'm also interested in what is the impact on

1039
00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:28,920
Speaker 2: the churches themselves, Meaning if as churches get more explicit

1040
00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 2: about their politics, does that attract or detract people from

1041
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:34,760
Speaker 2: coming to that congregation?

1042
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 1: We're going to have red congregations and blue congregations, right,

1043
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:37,880
Speaker 1: I mean.

1044
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 2: We kind of already do, but maybe more so now.

1045
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 2: But where do you don't want to communition.

1046
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 1: Episcopalia versus you know, it used to be you'd find

1047
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:50,960
Speaker 1: another another form of Christianity perhaps that you might you know,

1048
00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:54,000
Speaker 1: you know, if you're super lefty, maybe the Unitarians, right,

1049
00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:59,040
Speaker 1: you know, or something like that. But I yeah, go ahead.

1050
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:02,840
Speaker 2: And where my mind also went, because maybe I'm too

1051
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:04,960
Speaker 2: I've been doing this too long and a little bit jaded,

1052
01:00:05,080 --> 01:00:07,439
Speaker 2: is what's the definition of a church?

1053
01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 1: Right?

1054
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:11,680
Speaker 2: What stops a political entity that may not be religious

1055
01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:15,560
Speaker 2: but sort of forming a church in order to engage

1056
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:19,360
Speaker 2: in political activity and get around some of the other taxes,

1057
01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 2: other constraints.

1058
01:00:22,520 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 1: Let's get it right at the let's get right at

1059
01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 1: the heart of this. So I go ahead and give

1060
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:31,520
Speaker 1: money to my synagogue, get a tax deduction, and now

1061
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:36,400
Speaker 1: they can use that money for campaigning. I mean, you know,

1062
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, we're not that far away from

1063
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:41,280
Speaker 1: are we going to start allowing tax deductions directly for

1064
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:46,440
Speaker 1: campaign contributions. I'm sure Donald Trump wouldn't care if that

1065
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:51,120
Speaker 1: was if that was the law going forward. I where

1066
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:52,280
Speaker 1: are we going to draw the line here?

1067
01:00:52,800 --> 01:00:56,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's well, I'm you know, I'm not

1068
01:00:57,160 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 3: I don't take policy positions, but I'm I think this

1069
01:01:00,120 --> 01:01:03,400
Speaker 3: goes This takes us to places that were maybe really

1070
01:01:03,440 --> 01:01:06,160
Speaker 3: not prepared for, and it probably isn't healthy.

1071
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:09,200
Speaker 1: No, we're going to get actual clergy running, not to

1072
01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 1: say clergy haven't run before, but you're going to get

1073
01:01:12,880 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 1: more that decided to do it. Maybe they feel as

1074
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:19,280
Speaker 1: if they've got such a following in their congregation, why

1075
01:01:19,360 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 1: not try to turn that into a political following. I

1076
01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:24,560
Speaker 1: certainly am uncomfortable with it in the mixing. You know,

1077
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:27,680
Speaker 1: I've but I grew up at an age you know,

1078
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:30,800
Speaker 1: and sometimes I often wonder are we living in America,

1079
01:01:30,840 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 1: are we living in an outlier period, or we lived

1080
01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:36,880
Speaker 1: we grew up in an outlier period. And actually, you know,

1081
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 1: before in the fifties, churches did engage in politics, right,

1082
01:01:41,600 --> 01:01:45,040
Speaker 1: like this was the norm in the nineteenth century. Religion

1083
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 1: in politics in many ways were fused. The women's suffrage

1084
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:51,080
Speaker 1: movement was fused with really, you know, you couldn't disaggregate it.

1085
01:01:51,120 --> 01:01:54,000
Speaker 1: But then, of course religion was more was more mainstream

1086
01:01:54,040 --> 01:01:56,560
Speaker 1: in everybody's life in the nineteenth century, in the early

1087
01:01:56,560 --> 01:01:57,720
Speaker 1: twentieth century as well.

1088
01:01:58,280 --> 01:02:01,280
Speaker 2: And in politics, you know, has been a part of

1089
01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:03,960
Speaker 2: most churches. But it's just going to increase. And it

1090
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:07,160
Speaker 2: feels like there is no place where can you go

1091
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 2: now you can stay in the country that you know,

1092
01:02:09,800 --> 01:02:12,400
Speaker 2: it's what sport you're watching now, you can't even which

1093
01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:14,880
Speaker 2: teams your follow. You can't even follow a certain sport

1094
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:17,840
Speaker 2: without it feels like taking a side on, you know,

1095
01:02:17,920 --> 01:02:20,080
Speaker 2: whether you're for this party or that party. And like,

1096
01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:24,760
Speaker 2: come on, let's churches that stay focused on the missions

1097
01:02:24,840 --> 01:02:27,480
Speaker 2: that they have been given from, you know, whatever authority

1098
01:02:27,520 --> 01:02:28,880
Speaker 2: there they are relying on it.

1099
01:02:30,120 --> 01:02:32,680
Speaker 1: No, I'm in trouble, Chuck, But no, I hear you.

1100
01:02:32,720 --> 01:02:34,840
Speaker 1: But it's a good it's a good question. No. I

1101
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:37,920
Speaker 1: mean I I've been very concerned about the idea that

1102
01:02:39,600 --> 01:02:42,160
Speaker 1: where do we teach morals anymore? Where do our kids learn,

1103
01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 1: you know, morals outside the outside the home? Right. Parents

1104
01:02:46,760 --> 01:02:49,880
Speaker 1: obviously are a big drivers of this, but in many

1105
01:02:49,920 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 1: ways religious schools, you know, whether it was Sunday school,

1106
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:57,320
Speaker 1: uh or or a Bible study camp or something. But

1107
01:02:57,840 --> 01:03:01,000
Speaker 1: you know that, and you know, I'm a very religious person,

1108
01:03:01,080 --> 01:03:04,800
Speaker 1: and so I'm I'm just caught in the middle on this.

1109
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:11,400
Speaker 1: At the same time, religion gets used, you know, can

1110
01:03:11,400 --> 01:03:15,160
Speaker 1: get weaponized all that politically and in such uncomfortable ways

1111
01:03:15,160 --> 01:03:18,440
Speaker 1: to marginalize certain groups. And now you're sort of giving

1112
01:03:18,440 --> 01:03:20,960
Speaker 1: more tools for that to happen. I think this is

1113
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:23,520
Speaker 1: going to be bad for the long term health of

1114
01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:28,600
Speaker 1: religion in general. Right, We've already seen a although it's

1115
01:03:28,680 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 1: plateaued of late, a slow decrease in church attendance. It

1116
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:36,720
Speaker 1: feels like every year, right, it was just every year.

1117
01:03:37,520 --> 01:03:40,160
Speaker 1: This You can't tell me this is going to help

1118
01:03:40,240 --> 01:03:41,200
Speaker 1: that problem.

1119
01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:47,840
Speaker 2: It's going to blur the lines between partisanship and you know,

1120
01:03:48,320 --> 01:03:54,080
Speaker 2: moral ethical behavior that if you are endorsing a candidate,

1121
01:03:54,200 --> 01:03:57,080
Speaker 2: then you are going you're kind of saying that your

1122
01:03:57,440 --> 01:04:01,600
Speaker 2: church aligns aligns with that party or that person, and

1123
01:04:01,680 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 2: so the other side must be evil. Then, and when

1124
01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:07,600
Speaker 2: you start to think in those terms, you start to

1125
01:04:07,640 --> 01:04:11,600
Speaker 2: say and do things that are are not healthy because

1126
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 2: you start to think of them as other I always

1127
01:04:14,080 --> 01:04:16,400
Speaker 2: get uncomfortable, and I understand why.

1128
01:04:16,440 --> 01:04:18,240
Speaker 1: I like the officials do this, but they'll be at

1129
01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:22,440
Speaker 1: a disaster like that, like what we're seeing in Central Texas,

1130
01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:25,640
Speaker 1: and and they'll say, well, God's hidden hand played a

1131
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:28,720
Speaker 1: role in saving these lives. Well, then so you're saying

1132
01:04:28,760 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 1: God didn't play a God played also a role in

1133
01:04:31,640 --> 01:04:35,040
Speaker 1: the in not saving those lives. Like I understand, they're

1134
01:04:35,040 --> 01:04:37,840
Speaker 1: trying to say it as a comforting mechanism, but when

1135
01:04:37,880 --> 01:04:40,800
Speaker 1: you take it to its logical end, that's an uncomfortable

1136
01:04:40,800 --> 01:04:43,240
Speaker 1: place to be that because you're you're implying that God

1137
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:45,000
Speaker 1: is picking and choosing who gets to live and who

1138
01:04:45,040 --> 01:04:47,520
Speaker 1: gets to die. And and I don't know if that's

1139
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:49,680
Speaker 1: where people want their faith going.

1140
01:04:50,520 --> 01:04:52,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's.

1141
01:04:54,080 --> 01:04:55,160
Speaker 1: You don't like to get anything.

1142
01:04:59,120 --> 01:05:02,000
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's good, it's it's very relevant and

1143
01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:04,760
Speaker 2: I think unfortunately, as with a lot of things that's

1144
01:05:04,800 --> 01:05:07,360
Speaker 2: just there are maybe there are some intended consequences and

1145
01:05:07,440 --> 01:05:10,000
Speaker 2: unintended consequences, and we it's going to be a few

1146
01:05:10,080 --> 01:05:13,160
Speaker 2: years as this really rolls out to see, Okay, this

1147
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 2: is why, how how people take it?

1148
01:05:15,760 --> 01:05:19,640
Speaker 1: I don't think this is if you're hoping that religion

1149
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:21,880
Speaker 1: can become a safe haven from politics, this is not

1150
01:05:21,920 --> 01:05:23,680
Speaker 1: the way to do it. Let's put it that way.

1151
01:05:23,840 --> 01:05:28,040
Speaker 1: This is only going to, I think, create more tumult

1152
01:05:29,200 --> 01:05:40,000
Speaker 1: in that world. A few few other things before I

1153
01:05:40,000 --> 01:05:43,120
Speaker 1: get to sort of my uh my obsession with third

1154
01:05:43,160 --> 01:05:48,680
Speaker 1: parties and independent candidacies and where things go there. I

1155
01:05:48,720 --> 01:05:52,000
Speaker 1: was intrigued by a Democratic primary poll out of Michigan

1156
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:59,120
Speaker 1: that indicated that voting with Biden could be an effective

1157
01:05:59,200 --> 01:06:02,760
Speaker 1: message again against It was the Michigan race where there's

1158
01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:06,680
Speaker 1: a state representative running against a US member of Congress,

1159
01:06:07,000 --> 01:06:09,720
Speaker 1: and that the one differentiator, this was obviously a poll

1160
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:13,360
Speaker 1: conductor for the state legislator, that the biggest differentiator in

1161
01:06:13,360 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 1: a general election is that voting with Biden is a

1162
01:06:16,040 --> 01:06:22,400
Speaker 1: net negative for a Democrat. That was an interesting sort

1163
01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:25,400
Speaker 1: of yellow flag I thought when I was thinking this

1164
01:06:25,480 --> 01:06:27,640
Speaker 1: goes back to the conversation we started earlier, which is

1165
01:06:28,520 --> 01:06:33,560
Speaker 1: if Democrats underperform, what would be the explanations How heavy

1166
01:06:33,600 --> 01:06:37,440
Speaker 1: is the Biden baggage going to be? Well, it's heavy.

1167
01:06:37,520 --> 01:06:39,680
Speaker 2: I mean, he lost, Democrats did not do well in

1168
01:06:39,720 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty four elections, and he still continues to

1169
01:06:42,320 --> 01:06:45,080
Speaker 2: make news. I mean in part because whether it's books

1170
01:06:45,160 --> 01:06:49,320
Speaker 2: or whether it's the investigations that the administration wants to

1171
01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:52,960
Speaker 2: have on him and the people that worked around him.

1172
01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:55,560
Speaker 2: So the more time that's spent talking about Biden, I

1173
01:06:55,560 --> 01:06:58,240
Speaker 2: think the worst off Democrats are in general, But this

1174
01:06:58,320 --> 01:07:00,720
Speaker 2: is a democratic primary in Michigan where you have to

1175
01:07:00,720 --> 01:07:05,320
Speaker 2: make distinctions, whether if there aren't big policy differences in Michigan,

1176
01:07:06,080 --> 01:07:09,479
Speaker 2: you know, being pro being seen as pro Biden could

1177
01:07:09,480 --> 01:07:12,200
Speaker 2: be a liability in Michigan where Trump won, and I

1178
01:07:12,240 --> 01:07:14,440
Speaker 2: think that is the that is the extent. But to

1179
01:07:14,840 --> 01:07:19,880
Speaker 2: see it so explicitly is pretty rare, particularly based on

1180
01:07:19,920 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 2: the recency of President Biden's administration. You know, it just

1181
01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:25,720
Speaker 2: it was over six months ago.

1182
01:07:26,440 --> 01:07:29,400
Speaker 1: There's no penalty in trashing Biden as a Democrat? Is there?

1183
01:07:30,440 --> 01:07:34,080
Speaker 2: I don't think, don't. I mean, the reminds me that

1184
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:36,760
Speaker 2: there's like six people who are going to be upset

1185
01:07:37,280 --> 01:07:39,520
Speaker 2: right in Michigan.

1186
01:07:39,640 --> 01:07:42,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's what happened to Ennify in Mondale. It

1187
01:07:42,800 --> 01:07:44,760
Speaker 1: became really easy to just say no, I'm not one

1188
01:07:44,760 --> 01:07:47,560
Speaker 1: of those Democrats, and like literally people wanted to move

1189
01:07:47,600 --> 01:07:51,040
Speaker 1: on as fast as they could uh on there And

1190
01:07:51,080 --> 01:07:54,640
Speaker 1: it does feel like Biden. You can feel feel that

1191
01:07:54,760 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 1: and I and I I think it's Look the reason

1192
01:07:58,480 --> 01:08:00,640
Speaker 1: I'm intrigued by it in a Democrat a primary in

1193
01:08:00,640 --> 01:08:03,240
Speaker 1: Michigan in twenty twenty six because there's going to be

1194
01:08:03,320 --> 01:08:05,400
Speaker 1: quite a few people that have Biden connections running for

1195
01:08:05,440 --> 01:08:10,800
Speaker 1: president in twenty twenty eight. Right, I'm in particular Pete Budagic.

1196
01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:15,440
Speaker 1: Here's a guy who was an outsider candidate when he

1197
01:08:15,520 --> 01:08:19,120
Speaker 1: ran in twenty twenty. Now he's a Biden cabinet official,

1198
01:08:19,280 --> 01:08:21,840
Speaker 1: Right is that Does that make it impos You know?

1199
01:08:22,439 --> 01:08:26,360
Speaker 1: I am. I think he's a very talented political athlete, right,

1200
01:08:26,479 --> 01:08:29,559
Speaker 1: I think you know, there are many people that couldn't

1201
01:08:29,560 --> 01:08:31,760
Speaker 1: get out of that, but I don't. I'm curious to

1202
01:08:31,800 --> 01:08:36,360
Speaker 1: see how he balances that. Did know with a Kamala Harris.

1203
01:08:36,160 --> 01:08:37,839
Speaker 2: There are going to be there are gonna be lanes

1204
01:08:38,160 --> 01:08:40,439
Speaker 2: they're going to be you know, the Washington there are

1205
01:08:40,439 --> 01:08:42,519
Speaker 2: going to be people from Washington running. There's going to

1206
01:08:42,560 --> 01:08:44,320
Speaker 2: be governors who are going to run the same I'm

1207
01:08:44,360 --> 01:08:46,120
Speaker 2: not I'm not a part of that. There's also going

1208
01:08:46,160 --> 01:08:47,720
Speaker 2: to be an even more there's going to be an

1209
01:08:47,760 --> 01:08:50,800
Speaker 2: outsider lane that Right now it feels like Stephen A.

1210
01:08:50,880 --> 01:08:53,599
Speaker 2: Smith is the only one kind of occupying that. But

1211
01:08:53,680 --> 01:08:56,200
Speaker 2: I think he that is there is an appetite there

1212
01:08:56,280 --> 01:08:58,280
Speaker 2: that from someone who is not even a government not

1213
01:08:58,280 --> 01:08:59,960
Speaker 2: even an elected official, outside of.

1214
01:09:00,000 --> 01:09:03,000
Speaker 1: Someone from the outside of the world of politics. Yeah. Yeah,

1215
01:09:03,200 --> 01:09:04,320
Speaker 1: So definitely there's going to.

1216
01:09:04,360 --> 01:09:06,760
Speaker 2: Be I don't know who that's going to be yet,

1217
01:09:06,840 --> 01:09:09,040
Speaker 2: but there will be someone that will get some attention

1218
01:09:09,120 --> 01:09:13,960
Speaker 2: and sort of rise up, right, maybe the vivik Ramaswami

1219
01:09:14,520 --> 01:09:16,559
Speaker 2: sort of of.

1220
01:09:16,479 --> 01:09:21,200
Speaker 1: The twenty twenty eight Democratic primary. Was he a success

1221
01:09:21,240 --> 01:09:21,920
Speaker 1: or failure though?

1222
01:09:23,439 --> 01:09:26,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's done pretty well for a losing

1223
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:28,760
Speaker 2: candidate in the presidential race. He's done pretty well when

1224
01:09:28,800 --> 01:09:30,840
Speaker 2: he's on tractor. I mean, he was on that national

1225
01:09:30,920 --> 01:09:32,960
Speaker 2: stage with all these people who've been doing politics their

1226
01:09:33,000 --> 01:09:35,160
Speaker 2: whole life. You know, he's on the debate stage. And

1227
01:09:35,160 --> 01:09:37,719
Speaker 2: then now he's set up to be governor of Ohio on.

1228
01:09:38,800 --> 01:09:41,400
Speaker 1: It almost feels like that's a done deal, and yet

1229
01:09:41,600 --> 01:09:45,320
Speaker 1: I'm very skeptical. I Ramaswami is somebody who I don't

1230
01:09:45,320 --> 01:09:48,559
Speaker 1: know if he wears well, and that's why I was

1231
01:09:48,600 --> 01:09:53,599
Speaker 1: surprised he jumped in so early. It is we'll see.

1232
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:55,599
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Ramaswami is a guy that makes

1233
01:09:55,600 --> 01:09:59,400
Speaker 1: a really good first impression and then their stick can

1234
01:09:59,439 --> 01:10:00,479
Speaker 1: wear thin for time.

1235
01:10:01,320 --> 01:10:04,200
Speaker 2: We'll see he is people like I remember the convention,

1236
01:10:04,280 --> 01:10:07,639
Speaker 2: and I think it was actually after pretty soon after

1237
01:10:07,720 --> 01:10:10,120
Speaker 2: we saw you in the hallway on the concourse, the

1238
01:10:10,200 --> 01:10:12,960
Speaker 2: Ramaswami came by and wherever he went, he was just

1239
01:10:13,120 --> 01:10:15,920
Speaker 2: swarmed with people at the commn that wanted to you know,

1240
01:10:15,960 --> 01:10:19,200
Speaker 2: they wanted to see him and like him. I think that, uh,

1241
01:10:19,880 --> 01:10:22,559
Speaker 2: you know, as people get more see more of him,

1242
01:10:22,560 --> 01:10:24,760
Speaker 2: we'll see if that wings. But there's I think there's

1243
01:10:24,760 --> 01:10:29,240
Speaker 2: a there's a likability there because of the outsider tell

1244
01:10:29,280 --> 01:10:31,800
Speaker 2: it like it is. That's what gets rewarded right now

1245
01:10:31,840 --> 01:10:33,160
Speaker 2: in our in our politics.

1246
01:10:33,400 --> 01:10:36,639
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk Elon musk In in his money,

1247
01:10:38,200 --> 01:10:40,679
Speaker 1: the thing that matters most in his interest in developing

1248
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:44,080
Speaker 1: a third party or supporting independence, however he ends up

1249
01:10:44,080 --> 01:10:47,040
Speaker 1: deciding to do this is the checkbook, right, The single

1250
01:10:47,040 --> 01:10:53,320
Speaker 1: biggest impediment to a serious third party challengers are our

1251
01:10:53,360 --> 01:10:59,479
Speaker 1: money because of the in some states onerous rules for

1252
01:10:59,680 --> 01:11:01,720
Speaker 1: getting on the ballot if you're not part one of

1253
01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:06,880
Speaker 1: the two major parties. Look, I we can sit here

1254
01:11:06,880 --> 01:11:09,000
Speaker 1: and debate all of the weirdness of Musk in all

1255
01:11:09,000 --> 01:11:11,160
Speaker 1: the different ways that this might go away. But let's

1256
01:11:11,160 --> 01:11:14,720
Speaker 1: assume Musk is going to write a check to the Libertarians.

1257
01:11:15,080 --> 01:11:17,000
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'd be starting a new party

1258
01:11:17,080 --> 01:11:20,160
Speaker 1: right now, but maybe he'll help finance certain independent candidacies.

1259
01:11:23,000 --> 01:11:25,120
Speaker 1: Where would you go if you were him, if you

1260
01:11:25,160 --> 01:11:28,960
Speaker 1: wanted to make a difference, that's a good question.

1261
01:11:29,640 --> 01:11:34,040
Speaker 2: Where would I go? Well, it depends on who he's

1262
01:11:34,080 --> 01:11:36,400
Speaker 2: trying to. Who he's trying to Is he just trying

1263
01:11:36,439 --> 01:11:38,880
Speaker 2: to punish what are my what are his goals? I mean,

1264
01:11:39,479 --> 01:11:40,360
Speaker 2: just trying to create him.

1265
01:11:41,160 --> 01:11:43,400
Speaker 1: Let's take him at his at his word, which is

1266
01:11:43,240 --> 01:11:48,439
Speaker 1: he's looking for a group of senators and a handful

1267
01:11:48,479 --> 01:11:51,360
Speaker 1: of House members who aren't members of either party who

1268
01:11:51,400 --> 01:11:54,760
Speaker 1: will act sort of as a as a ballast, right,

1269
01:11:55,200 --> 01:11:58,000
Speaker 1: as a Nope, you know, you guys are in charge

1270
01:11:58,040 --> 01:12:00,759
Speaker 1: this sege Nope, you you know, sort of no labels,

1271
01:12:00,760 --> 01:12:02,639
Speaker 1: but do it at the ballot box, right. It sounds

1272
01:12:02,720 --> 01:12:04,880
Speaker 1: like that. That's so let's take him at his word

1273
01:12:04,920 --> 01:12:08,000
Speaker 1: that he's looking for center right and center left right

1274
01:12:08,080 --> 01:12:10,680
Speaker 1: sort of the liberty's looking There's no doubt to me

1275
01:12:10,720 --> 01:12:15,200
Speaker 1: he's looking for cultural libertarians who are our free traders,

1276
01:12:15,439 --> 01:12:19,840
Speaker 1: right and who believe in in in science and right.

1277
01:12:19,920 --> 01:12:23,679
Speaker 1: This weird. So, you know, I think if he's serious,

1278
01:12:23,720 --> 01:12:26,160
Speaker 1: he writes a big check to the Libertarians and says, hey,

1279
01:12:26,160 --> 01:12:28,599
Speaker 1: go become a serious party. Let me help you become

1280
01:12:28,600 --> 01:12:31,080
Speaker 1: a more serious party. Go find more serious candidates, et cetera,

1281
01:12:31,120 --> 01:12:34,479
Speaker 1: et cetera. But that, let's accept the premise that's what

1282
01:12:34,520 --> 01:12:37,519
Speaker 1: he's looking for. So like I've been obsessed with John Corney,

1283
01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:40,040
Speaker 1: John corn can't win a Republican primary, But I think

1284
01:12:40,120 --> 01:12:42,599
Speaker 1: John Cornyn. If you had a three way race between

1285
01:12:42,640 --> 01:12:45,240
Speaker 1: John Corn and Colin Allred and Ken Paxton, I think

1286
01:12:45,320 --> 01:12:48,720
Speaker 1: John corn wins that race. I think that he represents

1287
01:12:49,400 --> 01:12:53,200
Speaker 1: the largest chunk of voters in Texas ideologically than any

1288
01:12:53,240 --> 01:12:56,960
Speaker 1: of of the other two candidates. But can get can

1289
01:12:57,040 --> 01:12:59,160
Speaker 1: he get on the ballot right? Could he do this?

1290
01:12:59,200 --> 01:13:02,439
Speaker 1: Without the support of a major party and the major

1291
01:13:02,439 --> 01:13:05,240
Speaker 1: party donors. And that's a big question mark.

1292
01:13:05,439 --> 01:13:08,240
Speaker 2: Even even in that Texas scenario. I mean, Texas is

1293
01:13:08,240 --> 01:13:10,880
Speaker 2: a Republican state, very it was a big state for

1294
01:13:10,920 --> 01:13:15,600
Speaker 2: Trump and Ted Cruz. But you get an energized democratic,

1295
01:13:15,960 --> 01:13:20,320
Speaker 2: unified Democratic party, you know, behind alright or whomever the

1296
01:13:20,320 --> 01:13:24,240
Speaker 2: nominee is going to be. I think a fractured center

1297
01:13:24,280 --> 01:13:28,040
Speaker 2: and center right creates an opportunity for Democrats to win.

1298
01:13:28,080 --> 01:13:30,599
Speaker 2: And so the challenge, you know, where I'm struggling with

1299
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:34,360
Speaker 2: overlaying specific targets is that as long as you have

1300
01:13:34,520 --> 01:13:39,160
Speaker 2: a Democrat and a Republican nominee, that it's going to

1301
01:13:39,200 --> 01:13:42,880
Speaker 2: be tough. It's going to be tough for that third

1302
01:13:42,880 --> 01:13:46,960
Speaker 2: party candidate or I mean they could, they could make

1303
01:13:47,000 --> 01:13:51,599
Speaker 2: a difference, but you might be hurting the broader agenda

1304
01:13:51,640 --> 01:13:53,360
Speaker 2: that you're trying to reach. I mean, unless he's trying

1305
01:13:53,360 --> 01:13:57,280
Speaker 2: to elect the Democrats, then getting behind the Libertarian Party

1306
01:13:57,360 --> 01:14:02,719
Speaker 2: is probably not the the best way, the best way,

1307
01:14:02,760 --> 01:14:03,680
Speaker 2: the best way to do it.

1308
01:14:04,240 --> 01:14:06,439
Speaker 1: Well, if I were advising about tell them to write

1309
01:14:06,479 --> 01:14:09,040
Speaker 1: half his checks to the Libertarians and half his checks

1310
01:14:09,040 --> 01:14:11,920
Speaker 1: to the Forward Party right, meaning go find center left

1311
01:14:11,960 --> 01:14:15,800
Speaker 1: and center right and figure out in which state, which

1312
01:14:16,360 --> 01:14:21,280
Speaker 1: which which flavor essentially would be better. Like I proposed,

1313
01:14:21,320 --> 01:14:23,479
Speaker 1: if I were in his shoes, the experiments I would

1314
01:14:23,479 --> 01:14:26,040
Speaker 1: do would be in Florida in Texas, right, because you

1315
01:14:26,120 --> 01:14:29,799
Speaker 1: have dominant Republican parties that are fractured, that are divided.

1316
01:14:30,600 --> 01:14:33,519
Speaker 1: It's a very divided Republican party in Texas, it is

1317
01:14:33,640 --> 01:14:35,880
Speaker 1: it is more of a divided it's more of a

1318
01:14:36,360 --> 01:14:39,720
Speaker 1: there's a non existent Democratic party. Right. They literally had

1319
01:14:39,760 --> 01:14:42,920
Speaker 1: to recruit a Republican to run for governor, you know,

1320
01:14:43,000 --> 01:14:48,000
Speaker 1: in some ways, and that Senate race is is going

1321
01:14:48,080 --> 01:14:53,000
Speaker 1: to send the semi uncontested potentially not totally uncontested, but

1322
01:14:53,000 --> 01:14:55,200
Speaker 1: they're going to have a very underfunded candidate on the

1323
01:14:55,200 --> 01:14:59,120
Speaker 1: Democratic side. So you could sit here and help a

1324
01:14:59,200 --> 01:15:01,120
Speaker 1: corn in there and and say help a center left

1325
01:15:01,120 --> 01:15:05,240
Speaker 1: guy in a Florida. That would be if he were again,

1326
01:15:05,320 --> 01:15:08,400
Speaker 1: if he's serious about this, that to me is how

1327
01:15:08,400 --> 01:15:11,559
Speaker 1: I would engage at the beginning, would be messing around

1328
01:15:11,560 --> 01:15:14,280
Speaker 1: in those two states. Looks a he's a lot of

1329
01:15:14,320 --> 01:15:17,120
Speaker 1: business interest in Texas, so he's a lot of reasons

1330
01:15:17,120 --> 01:15:19,160
Speaker 1: to be engaged in Texas, less so in Florida.

1331
01:15:20,160 --> 01:15:24,120
Speaker 2: He missed an opportunity right when we're talking about third

1332
01:15:24,160 --> 01:15:27,799
Speaker 2: parties in general, I think it has to be personality driven,

1333
01:15:27,840 --> 01:15:31,200
Speaker 2: and I think he is a larger than life personality.

1334
01:15:31,400 --> 01:15:35,840
Speaker 2: He could be proble with an established businessman. He has

1335
01:15:35,880 --> 01:15:38,400
Speaker 2: a lot of things that people trust more than politicians.

1336
01:15:38,439 --> 01:15:41,800
Speaker 2: But now, but by getting so involved with Trump in

1337
01:15:41,800 --> 01:15:44,120
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, helping Trump and getting involved at the

1338
01:15:44,439 --> 01:15:48,160
Speaker 2: almost the super cabinet level, you know, he's alienated everyone.

1339
01:15:48,200 --> 01:15:51,000
Speaker 2: I mean, he's alienated Democrats and now he's alienated Republicans

1340
01:15:51,040 --> 01:15:53,559
Speaker 2: because Trump doesn't like him, and now he's in political

1341
01:15:53,560 --> 01:15:57,000
Speaker 2: noman's land and so but I think the ingredients were

1342
01:15:57,000 --> 01:16:01,400
Speaker 2: there pre twenty twenty four for someone for Elon to

1343
01:16:01,520 --> 01:16:04,479
Speaker 2: create something that was that could have had an impact,

1344
01:16:04,520 --> 01:16:08,000
Speaker 2: and now it's just back to square. I think it

1345
01:16:08,000 --> 01:16:11,600
Speaker 2: would be a very it's going to be very sporadic

1346
01:16:12,000 --> 01:16:14,160
Speaker 2: in terms of where he might be able to have

1347
01:16:14,200 --> 01:16:18,800
Speaker 2: an impact having it be organized, because Chuck, for me, fundamentally,

1348
01:16:18,800 --> 01:16:21,559
Speaker 2: there's the logistics that we've talked about and you've talked about,

1349
01:16:21,560 --> 01:16:25,479
Speaker 2: but there's also what are you for? What are you for?

1350
01:16:25,640 --> 01:16:28,080
Speaker 2: And when you start talking about you can say we

1351
01:16:28,120 --> 01:16:30,519
Speaker 2: hate Republicans, we hate Democrats. We need something else. But

1352
01:16:30,560 --> 01:16:32,360
Speaker 2: then you start saying, well, you're for and you start

1353
01:16:32,520 --> 01:16:34,760
Speaker 2: losing people in the coalition like oh, we think this

1354
01:16:34,880 --> 01:16:37,519
Speaker 2: on guns, or this on taxes, this on abortion, and

1355
01:16:37,560 --> 01:16:40,200
Speaker 2: people like all right, I'm out. This was fun, but

1356
01:16:40,600 --> 01:16:42,720
Speaker 2: I'm not. I can't get on board with that. So

1357
01:16:42,760 --> 01:16:44,519
Speaker 2: I don't see how you hold it together if you

1358
01:16:44,560 --> 01:16:45,679
Speaker 2: don't have someone who.

1359
01:16:45,520 --> 01:16:49,000
Speaker 1: Is a friend of mine. Always hard to say, he says,

1360
01:16:49,040 --> 01:16:51,280
Speaker 1: you know, the Libertarian Party is always interesting to me,

1361
01:16:51,320 --> 01:16:55,280
Speaker 1: and then you find out they don't believe in driver's licenses, right,

1362
01:16:55,280 --> 01:16:56,640
Speaker 1: And then you're like, well, how the hell do I

1363
01:16:56,680 --> 01:16:59,559
Speaker 1: defend that? Right? I can't run on the libertarian line,

1364
01:16:59,560 --> 01:17:03,080
Speaker 1: you know type mindset. So you're not wrong, right. It's

1365
01:17:03,080 --> 01:17:04,960
Speaker 1: sort of one of those things. At the minute people

1366
01:17:04,960 --> 01:17:08,120
Speaker 1: find out what you advocate, you're like, wait, why do

1367
01:17:08,200 --> 01:17:10,920
Speaker 1: you do that? What's that about?

1368
01:17:11,160 --> 01:17:14,600
Speaker 2: You know, maybe if you have a personality that is

1369
01:17:14,600 --> 01:17:17,040
Speaker 2: bigger than you mean. Trump says some things, but said, well,

1370
01:17:17,040 --> 01:17:19,200
Speaker 2: that's just Trump and Trump. But he has this among

1371
01:17:19,600 --> 01:17:22,400
Speaker 2: a group of Americans, he has a reputation that well

1372
01:17:22,400 --> 01:17:25,360
Speaker 2: whatever he either whatever he says goes or even when

1373
01:17:25,360 --> 01:17:28,320
Speaker 2: he says things I don't like. It must it doesn't matter.

1374
01:17:28,600 --> 01:17:31,960
Speaker 2: It matters less than the bigger picture. But there's few

1375
01:17:32,000 --> 01:17:35,280
Speaker 2: people right now in this country that have that enough

1376
01:17:35,320 --> 01:17:40,960
Speaker 2: of following to kind of enact that politically politically period.

1377
01:17:41,360 --> 01:17:43,519
Speaker 1: Look, the other two states that I think he could

1378
01:17:43,520 --> 01:17:47,519
Speaker 1: play in are the two states that actually have ranked

1379
01:17:47,560 --> 01:17:49,719
Speaker 1: choice voting at least in some parts of their elections,

1380
01:17:49,720 --> 01:17:52,800
Speaker 1: and that's Alaska and May Right, So he could. It's

1381
01:17:52,880 --> 01:17:55,479
Speaker 1: easier to start a party there, It's easier to get

1382
01:17:55,479 --> 01:17:58,000
Speaker 1: on the ballot in those two states. And who knows,

1383
01:17:58,160 --> 01:18:00,880
Speaker 1: Main could be a free for all. Just discussed with

1384
01:18:00,920 --> 01:18:03,719
Speaker 1: Susan Collins. Maybe she doesn't run. Maybe Susan Collins doesn't

1385
01:18:03,720 --> 01:18:05,599
Speaker 1: want to run as a Republican. What if she decides

1386
01:18:05,640 --> 01:18:07,360
Speaker 1: to pull an Angus King and run as an e

1387
01:18:08,720 --> 01:18:10,800
Speaker 1: That's a curiosity to me. I think some people thought

1388
01:18:10,880 --> 01:18:13,080
Speaker 1: she might do that, the fact that she voted against

1389
01:18:13,120 --> 01:18:16,439
Speaker 1: the Senate bill. You know, I read that as somebody

1390
01:18:16,479 --> 01:18:19,920
Speaker 1: who's at least wants to try to run as at

1391
01:18:20,000 --> 01:18:23,640
Speaker 1: least an independent minded Republican right in Maine if she

1392
01:18:23,720 --> 01:18:26,360
Speaker 1: ends up doing it. But those would be you know,

1393
01:18:26,479 --> 01:18:29,040
Speaker 1: Florida and Texas to me are one type of experiment

1394
01:18:29,640 --> 01:18:32,280
Speaker 1: Maine in Alaska would be frankly cheaper experiments.

1395
01:18:33,600 --> 01:18:36,479
Speaker 2: And you still have to have candidates, right, I mean,

1396
01:18:36,760 --> 01:18:40,720
Speaker 2: this is in concept. You could start to make the

1397
01:18:41,120 --> 01:18:43,719
Speaker 2: make you you're making the case, but who is actually

1398
01:18:43,760 --> 01:18:46,559
Speaker 2: the candidate? You know? Can can you get someone who

1399
01:18:46,760 --> 01:18:49,439
Speaker 2: is not doesn't have the baggage, but also has the

1400
01:18:49,479 --> 01:18:54,680
Speaker 2: credibility to be this alternative to other known other known

1401
01:18:54,680 --> 01:18:57,599
Speaker 2: commanders because people, even for people who want change, they

1402
01:18:57,640 --> 01:19:00,240
Speaker 2: want to have some faith in the person and that

1403
01:19:00,280 --> 01:19:02,680
Speaker 2: they're they're voting for, even if they don't like the

1404
01:19:02,720 --> 01:19:05,240
Speaker 2: people that they're familiar with or they voted for in

1405
01:19:05,280 --> 01:19:09,360
Speaker 2: the past. So finding candidates is the right candidate is

1406
01:19:09,400 --> 01:19:11,960
Speaker 2: going to be key to I mean with Dan Osborne,

1407
01:19:11,960 --> 01:19:16,280
Speaker 2: who just announced he's running against Yeah, you know, I

1408
01:19:16,320 --> 01:19:19,120
Speaker 2: think I was good. He was maybe as much of

1409
01:19:19,160 --> 01:19:22,599
Speaker 2: an outsider as you can be, you know, and still

1410
01:19:22,600 --> 01:19:26,240
Speaker 2: fell short and it had democratic support behind the scenes,

1411
01:19:26,320 --> 01:19:30,439
Speaker 2: but still fell well short against an incumbent of Fisher

1412
01:19:30,479 --> 01:19:33,200
Speaker 2: who was kind of took her race for granted and

1413
01:19:33,240 --> 01:19:34,840
Speaker 2: really needed help at the end. And they rais didn't

1414
01:19:34,880 --> 01:19:35,799
Speaker 2: end up being that close.

1415
01:19:36,840 --> 01:19:38,839
Speaker 1: You know. The interesting thing to me about the Osbourne

1416
01:19:38,920 --> 01:19:41,479
Speaker 1: race I was going to bring up this and just

1417
01:19:41,520 --> 01:19:43,719
Speaker 1: to get your head ready, I'm gonna we'll talk about

1418
01:19:43,720 --> 01:19:47,320
Speaker 1: Michigan governor in a few minutes, the two places where

1419
01:19:47,320 --> 01:19:50,040
Speaker 1: we will have independent candidates that will be in double digits,

1420
01:19:50,520 --> 01:19:52,519
Speaker 1: and then from there the question is how, you know,

1421
01:19:52,600 --> 01:19:55,200
Speaker 1: how far else do they go? The one thing that

1422
01:19:55,240 --> 01:19:58,840
Speaker 1: intrigues me on Osborne is the contrast right his setup video.

1423
01:19:59,160 --> 01:20:05,200
Speaker 1: You know, you know, there are we so angry at

1424
01:20:05,240 --> 01:20:07,960
Speaker 1: the elites and that the rich that just being a

1425
01:20:08,000 --> 01:20:11,240
Speaker 1: billionaire as a negative and voters will just say, you

1426
01:20:11,240 --> 01:20:14,040
Speaker 1: know what, I'm tired of these rich guys. I'm not

1427
01:20:14,160 --> 01:20:18,080
Speaker 1: saying that that's I find that contrast with Ricketts intriguing,

1428
01:20:18,200 --> 01:20:26,720
Speaker 1: and at least you know it is. Look, it's not

1429
01:20:26,840 --> 01:20:29,800
Speaker 1: lost on me the history of Nebraska populists, right, you know,

1430
01:20:29,840 --> 01:20:35,240
Speaker 1: Wayne Jennings Bryan, if we see if we're going to

1431
01:20:35,320 --> 01:20:38,040
Speaker 1: see a sea change of a sort of a revolt

1432
01:20:38,200 --> 01:20:42,640
Speaker 1: against the gilded age, right, a revolt against all this

1433
01:20:42,840 --> 01:20:47,879
Speaker 1: excess that's out there, He's perhaps set up the contrast

1434
01:20:47,960 --> 01:20:50,920
Speaker 1: as cleanly as anybody out there. Right now.

1435
01:20:52,320 --> 01:20:55,360
Speaker 2: Contrast is there. The state is still difficult, right, I mean,

1436
01:20:55,400 --> 01:20:58,920
Speaker 2: it's still you could Ricketts can afford to have a

1437
01:20:58,960 --> 01:21:01,519
Speaker 2: few people that or are done with, you know, the

1438
01:21:01,600 --> 01:21:05,200
Speaker 2: establishment ability, all those things and still win and still

1439
01:21:05,200 --> 01:21:08,000
Speaker 2: win and what he and he also has. I think

1440
01:21:08,040 --> 01:21:12,320
Speaker 2: he'll just run fundamentally, just run a better campaign. Rickets

1441
01:21:12,320 --> 01:21:14,400
Speaker 2: will run a better campaign because he's going to see

1442
01:21:14,640 --> 01:21:20,240
Speaker 2: will be right and so. But yeah, I can see

1443
01:21:20,240 --> 01:21:22,080
Speaker 2: this snare. I've learned to be open minded.

1444
01:21:22,280 --> 01:21:27,560
Speaker 1: I know you to be right. Yeah, you know, I

1445
01:21:27,560 --> 01:21:30,400
Speaker 1: I talk myself out of Osborne. He's not going to

1446
01:21:30,439 --> 01:21:34,599
Speaker 1: be as to me. The I find the farm state

1447
01:21:35,280 --> 01:21:38,040
Speaker 1: the most fascinating for this next cycle because if the

1448
01:21:38,080 --> 01:21:40,439
Speaker 1: tariffs are as damaging to our economy as I think

1449
01:21:40,479 --> 01:21:44,000
Speaker 1: they're going to be, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska become three Senate

1450
01:21:44,080 --> 01:21:47,280
Speaker 1: races that I become obsessed with, right because those are

1451
01:21:47,439 --> 01:21:50,919
Speaker 1: places where they are you know, Kansas farmers already impacted

1452
01:21:50,920 --> 01:21:54,360
Speaker 1: by the aid cuts, Nebraska and I would be sensitive

1453
01:21:54,360 --> 01:21:59,520
Speaker 1: to that. But is Dan Osborne hand ti tariff he should.

1454
01:21:59,240 --> 01:22:03,080
Speaker 4: Have them on, right, No, I think that that that

1455
01:22:03,080 --> 01:22:06,479
Speaker 4: that is going to be at uh they I think,

1456
01:22:06,640 --> 01:22:08,559
Speaker 4: you know, can he take advantage of what I think

1457
01:22:08,600 --> 01:22:11,720
Speaker 4: could be the best opportunity right as far as a

1458
01:22:11,760 --> 01:22:15,040
Speaker 4: wedge issue against the against the Republican incumbent.

1459
01:22:16,080 --> 01:22:19,080
Speaker 2: And I and I've written many many times, particularly for

1460
01:22:19,160 --> 01:22:22,400
Speaker 2: Roll Call, about just because you lose a race doesn't

1461
01:22:22,439 --> 01:22:24,320
Speaker 2: mean that you can't win a future race.

1462
01:22:24,320 --> 01:22:25,519
Speaker 1: And I hate it when people.

1463
01:22:25,360 --> 01:22:27,599
Speaker 2: Say, oh, loser, you know, Osborne lost this or any

1464
01:22:28,160 --> 01:22:30,120
Speaker 2: because there's a lot I mean, John Thune lost a

1465
01:22:30,200 --> 01:22:32,120
Speaker 2: race before he won a race, and look out, look

1466
01:22:32,120 --> 01:22:35,800
Speaker 2: how far that got him. So it's but it's just

1467
01:22:36,680 --> 01:22:38,280
Speaker 2: the math is the math is stuff. A lot of

1468
01:22:38,280 --> 01:22:40,280
Speaker 2: things have to go right, you know, for Osborne or

1469
01:22:40,320 --> 01:22:42,840
Speaker 2: any third party candidate who's trying to make this work.

1470
01:22:42,960 --> 01:22:46,920
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about the math equation in Michigan because

1471
01:22:46,920 --> 01:22:50,600
Speaker 1: it's a fascinating Michigan governor is probably the you know,

1472
01:22:50,640 --> 01:22:53,120
Speaker 1: if you're if you're kind of intrigued about third party

1473
01:22:53,120 --> 01:22:56,160
Speaker 1: politics and and and how do you be disruptive to

1474
01:22:56,200 --> 01:22:58,439
Speaker 1: the two major parties, Michigan is going to be your

1475
01:22:58,439 --> 01:23:03,160
Speaker 1: favorite race to follow. Duggan's going to have certainly have

1476
01:23:03,240 --> 01:23:05,920
Speaker 1: financial support. He's not the self funder, but he's going

1477
01:23:05,960 --> 01:23:11,840
Speaker 1: to have major major players in the Detroit community or

1478
01:23:12,120 --> 01:23:17,240
Speaker 1: helping finance his campaign. He's likely to face a Democratic

1479
01:23:17,320 --> 01:23:21,280
Speaker 1: nominee who's not from Detroit, and Jocelyn Benson, assuming she

1480
01:23:21,840 --> 01:23:28,040
Speaker 1: is the Democratic nominee, and then you have the John

1481
01:23:28,120 --> 01:23:31,840
Speaker 1: James James, an African American member of Congress, a Republican.

1482
01:23:32,360 --> 01:23:35,639
Speaker 1: I think the racial politics are going to be interesting

1483
01:23:35,680 --> 01:23:39,760
Speaker 1: in how that sort of breaks out. And if I

1484
01:23:39,800 --> 01:23:42,000
Speaker 1: were just looking at it demographically, I would say that

1485
01:23:42,120 --> 01:23:45,040
Speaker 1: seems to me to be the key to understanding who

1486
01:23:45,080 --> 01:23:48,759
Speaker 1: wins right to do Where do Detroit's African American voters

1487
01:23:48,800 --> 01:23:53,439
Speaker 1: go to the mayor, to the Democratic nominee, or to

1488
01:23:53,479 --> 01:23:54,719
Speaker 1: the African American candidate.

1489
01:23:55,200 --> 01:23:57,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, And there was a survey, and I should have

1490
01:23:57,720 --> 01:23:59,680
Speaker 2: had this in my fingertips, a survey that showed that

1491
01:23:59,720 --> 01:24:03,800
Speaker 2: doug And was taking equally from both parties and.

1492
01:24:03,880 --> 01:24:07,240
Speaker 1: I was the only one with a net positive favorable rating.

1493
01:24:07,400 --> 01:24:10,240
Speaker 1: I think with every single group of voters he was

1494
01:24:11,000 --> 01:24:13,679
Speaker 1: just he was net he had a positive fave among

1495
01:24:13,680 --> 01:24:17,640
Speaker 1: them's positive fath among INDI's positive fave among Republicans, and

1496
01:24:17,720 --> 01:24:21,479
Speaker 1: a really low name idea outside of Detroit, by the way, And.

1497
01:24:21,640 --> 01:24:23,839
Speaker 2: I just I think that he is more of a

1498
01:24:24,000 --> 01:24:27,479
Speaker 2: more of a threat to the Democrats as a as

1499
01:24:27,520 --> 01:24:31,360
Speaker 2: a you know is now former Democratic mayor. I think

1500
01:24:31,360 --> 01:24:34,760
Speaker 2: that in a state where Democrats need every they need

1501
01:24:34,800 --> 01:24:36,240
Speaker 2: a lot of things to go right in order to win.

1502
01:24:36,280 --> 01:24:38,680
Speaker 2: I mean, Gretchen Whitmer show that it's possible to win,

1503
01:24:38,760 --> 01:24:42,519
Speaker 2: but also Biden lost, so Democrats can't afford to have

1504
01:24:42,600 --> 01:24:47,800
Speaker 2: any any disproportional gap or loss in their votes or

1505
01:24:47,840 --> 01:24:49,880
Speaker 2: else they're going to you know, then James would be

1506
01:24:49,920 --> 01:24:52,800
Speaker 2: set up. James will be set up well, so I

1507
01:24:53,160 --> 01:24:56,880
Speaker 2: Democrats their best bet. I don't know what those conversations

1508
01:24:56,880 --> 01:25:00,559
Speaker 2: are looking like or how convinced he is in staying

1509
01:25:00,600 --> 01:25:03,320
Speaker 2: in the race, but I think Democrats are going to

1510
01:25:03,520 --> 01:25:04,960
Speaker 2: try to get him out because I think he's more

1511
01:25:05,000 --> 01:25:05,799
Speaker 2: of a threat to them.

1512
01:25:05,680 --> 01:25:08,120
Speaker 1: Than you don't know how they get him out. What's

1513
01:25:08,160 --> 01:25:10,120
Speaker 1: what's the incentive to get him out? He already left

1514
01:25:10,120 --> 01:25:12,040
Speaker 1: the party. I don't know what it does, yeh, what

1515
01:25:12,120 --> 01:25:14,800
Speaker 1: is his downside? What's the downside? Yeah, there's no risk

1516
01:25:14,880 --> 01:25:16,599
Speaker 1: for I don't know what the risk is for him,

1517
01:25:17,560 --> 01:25:20,919
Speaker 1: right Like you know, the only thing that I could

1518
01:25:21,360 --> 01:25:24,599
Speaker 1: see that could be a fascinating jiu jitsu for Jocelyn

1519
01:25:24,600 --> 01:25:29,960
Speaker 1: Benson is if she ends up attacking Dugan for being Biden,

1520
01:25:30,479 --> 01:25:33,120
Speaker 1: for being too close to Biden. Because you know Dugan

1521
01:25:33,320 --> 01:25:36,920
Speaker 1: was sort of Biden's favorite mayor. Dougan's son ran the

1522
01:25:37,000 --> 01:25:42,000
Speaker 1: Biden for President Michigan campaigns. I think both in twenty

1523
01:25:42,040 --> 01:25:46,120
Speaker 1: twenty and twenty twenty four. Definitely is a close relationship there, right,

1524
01:25:46,160 --> 01:25:51,920
Speaker 1: I mean Biden early on was he saw he jumped

1525
01:25:51,960 --> 01:25:55,439
Speaker 1: on Duggan for mayor back at the very beginning. So

1526
01:25:55,479 --> 01:25:58,320
Speaker 1: it's a real relationship there. That's the one little weird

1527
01:25:58,400 --> 01:26:02,000
Speaker 1: jiu jitsu when we were talking about is Biden how

1528
01:26:02,040 --> 01:26:04,920
Speaker 1: heavy is the Biden baggage? Could it actually apply to

1529
01:26:04,960 --> 01:26:09,080
Speaker 1: somebody who's not a Democrat. I think they will try everything.

1530
01:26:09,320 --> 01:26:11,760
Speaker 2: I think Democrats will try everything to try to discredit

1531
01:26:11,960 --> 01:26:16,360
Speaker 2: and minimize Duggin's vote, and that certainly seems like a possible.

1532
01:26:16,400 --> 01:26:17,720
Speaker 2: Certainly seems like a possibility.

1533
01:26:18,160 --> 01:26:22,559
Speaker 1: All Right, Before I get to my get to a

1534
01:26:22,640 --> 01:26:25,680
Speaker 1: topic that I really wanted to have a conversation with

1535
01:26:25,720 --> 01:26:33,440
Speaker 1: you about, which was the athletics ranking of which conference

1536
01:26:33,560 --> 01:26:36,000
Speaker 1: is the biggest liar to the American public as far

1537
01:26:36,040 --> 01:26:38,360
Speaker 1: as name versus that, And we're going to get to

1538
01:26:38,400 --> 01:26:41,479
Speaker 1: that in a minute. But before we leave campaigns, before

1539
01:26:41,479 --> 01:26:45,280
Speaker 1: we leave the midterms, what's what's a few issues we're

1540
01:26:45,320 --> 01:26:48,240
Speaker 1: not talking about that. You think could that you are

1541
01:26:48,320 --> 01:26:52,960
Speaker 1: expecting to bubble up more on the campaign trail in

1542
01:26:53,000 --> 01:26:55,120
Speaker 1: the summer and fall of twenty six that we're not

1543
01:26:55,160 --> 01:26:56,599
Speaker 1: paying enough attention to right now.

1544
01:26:58,600 --> 01:27:02,120
Speaker 2: Could I I think we trying to think of a

1545
01:27:02,160 --> 01:27:06,000
Speaker 2: surprise issue. I think that there are the ingredients for

1546
01:27:06,080 --> 01:27:08,439
Speaker 2: what is going to be a bigger story later on

1547
01:27:08,520 --> 01:27:10,960
Speaker 2: down the line. But I mean, fundamentally, our elections usually

1548
01:27:11,000 --> 01:27:13,360
Speaker 2: come down to the economy, and we're talking about the

1549
01:27:13,360 --> 01:27:15,880
Speaker 2: potential for tariffs and things. Healthcare is going to be

1550
01:27:15,880 --> 01:27:17,880
Speaker 2: a part of it because of the bill, the reconciliation

1551
01:27:17,960 --> 01:27:19,639
Speaker 2: bill that just passed, Medicaid cuts.

1552
01:27:19,680 --> 01:27:21,479
Speaker 1: But these are things that are that.

1553
01:27:21,479 --> 01:27:26,840
Speaker 2: Are out there and trying to what is a.

1554
01:27:25,560 --> 01:27:28,480
Speaker 1: We can flip it this way? Is immigration less impactful

1555
01:27:29,040 --> 01:27:31,760
Speaker 1: in twenty six? You know, one of the voters don't

1556
01:27:31,840 --> 01:27:34,519
Speaker 1: vote on things they're satisfied with. Right, We've learned that

1557
01:27:34,560 --> 01:27:37,960
Speaker 1: over the years. Hey, the economy is great, all right, now,

1558
01:27:38,000 --> 01:27:40,240
Speaker 1: I'm going to vote against the incumbent for another reason. Right?

1559
01:27:40,320 --> 01:27:42,040
Speaker 1: You know sometimes that we'll we'll ad get that.

1560
01:27:42,200 --> 01:27:46,200
Speaker 2: But immigration is going to be a key It's going

1561
01:27:46,280 --> 01:27:50,440
Speaker 2: to be a big issue because I think the administration

1562
01:27:50,720 --> 01:27:53,400
Speaker 2: is just getting more and more emboldened with how they

1563
01:27:53,439 --> 01:27:59,720
Speaker 2: are enacting these deportations, and Republicans, remember when we're trying

1564
01:27:59,760 --> 01:28:02,880
Speaker 2: to lessons learned. I think Republicans are relying on this

1565
01:28:03,200 --> 01:28:06,000
Speaker 2: to a fault. Oh well, we were elected. We're just

1566
01:28:06,120 --> 01:28:07,960
Speaker 2: doing what we said we're going to do. And I

1567
01:28:07,960 --> 01:28:10,600
Speaker 2: would take that to say, okay, well, I think a

1568
01:28:10,680 --> 01:28:14,760
Speaker 2: majority of Americans do want violent, violent criminals who are

1569
01:28:14,760 --> 01:28:18,200
Speaker 2: in this country illegally to be deported. The President and

1570
01:28:18,320 --> 01:28:22,519
Speaker 2: Republicans have pushed that line, right, They've pushed it to well,

1571
01:28:22,560 --> 01:28:25,000
Speaker 2: not just violent criminals, but if you're in this country illegally,

1572
01:28:25,040 --> 01:28:28,120
Speaker 2: well that's criminal, and well you may not be we

1573
01:28:28,880 --> 01:28:30,800
Speaker 2: may not know whether you're a citizen, but we're going

1574
01:28:30,880 --> 01:28:34,080
Speaker 2: to just deport you anyway. And they keep kind of

1575
01:28:34,120 --> 01:28:40,400
Speaker 2: moving the line. And as people see more of these arrests,

1576
01:28:40,479 --> 01:28:43,320
Speaker 2: deportations play out on video, you know, people's cell phone

1577
01:28:43,400 --> 01:28:46,120
Speaker 2: videos and things, I think there is going to be

1578
01:28:46,160 --> 01:28:50,639
Speaker 2: more uncomfortability with the implementation of the policy that maybe

1579
01:28:50,680 --> 01:28:55,400
Speaker 2: in theory people people agreed with. So I expect immigration

1580
01:28:55,520 --> 01:28:59,080
Speaker 2: to be as it's one great example of I think

1581
01:28:59,120 --> 01:29:02,320
Speaker 2: the Republicans reading the role over less and potentially and

1582
01:29:02,360 --> 01:29:03,439
Speaker 2: over the twenty four election.

1583
01:29:03,720 --> 01:29:08,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. Interesting, Yeah, there's a there's an interesting piece of

1584
01:29:08,400 --> 01:29:12,720
Speaker 1: data that our friend Dante Cheney has been doing at

1585
01:29:12,760 --> 01:29:15,559
Speaker 1: the American Communities Project, and he noted that when you

1586
01:29:15,680 --> 01:29:18,840
Speaker 1: ask the same voter the most important issues in their

1587
01:29:18,880 --> 01:29:22,639
Speaker 1: local community and the most important issues nationally, the biggest

1588
01:29:22,680 --> 01:29:26,559
Speaker 1: discrepancy is immigration. Locally, they don't see immigration as a

1589
01:29:26,560 --> 01:29:29,040
Speaker 1: top five issue nationally, they see it as a top

1590
01:29:29,040 --> 01:29:31,240
Speaker 1: two issue. Literally, same voter.

1591
01:29:32,360 --> 01:29:35,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's probably the effect some effective news and

1592
01:29:35,400 --> 01:29:37,920
Speaker 2: what they're reading or seeing or watching that oh, well,

1593
01:29:37,960 --> 01:29:40,679
Speaker 2: over there, in that city or in that state, things

1594
01:29:40,680 --> 01:29:43,080
Speaker 2: are things are bad, even if they're not experiencing it

1595
01:29:43,120 --> 01:29:45,280
Speaker 2: in their row. But the more that these happen, it's

1596
01:29:45,280 --> 01:29:47,920
Speaker 2: going to filter into communities that may not be you know,

1597
01:29:48,120 --> 01:29:53,280
Speaker 2: pop eds for for immigration because there are surprise, surprise, truck,

1598
01:29:53,320 --> 01:29:55,640
Speaker 2: there are immigrants all over the country.

1599
01:29:55,720 --> 01:29:57,479
Speaker 1: They're part of they're part of the country.

1600
01:29:57,520 --> 01:29:59,840
Speaker 2: And so by the way that supported that, you know,

1601
01:30:00,200 --> 01:30:02,280
Speaker 2: people wouldn't expect well.

1602
01:30:02,360 --> 01:30:05,080
Speaker 1: And then there's all sorts of personal stories. I've had

1603
01:30:05,240 --> 01:30:09,519
Speaker 1: family members who are are who if you just looked

1604
01:30:09,600 --> 01:30:13,520
Speaker 1: at them, you'd say, are they Mexican? They're American citizens.

1605
01:30:15,479 --> 01:30:18,479
Speaker 1: They've been stopped and detained, you know, while trying to travel.

1606
01:30:19,000 --> 01:30:21,880
Speaker 1: I mean, it is just the aggressive nature. And there's

1607
01:30:21,920 --> 01:30:24,320
Speaker 1: these little anecdotes. A lot of people are hearing this.

1608
01:30:24,880 --> 01:30:27,120
Speaker 1: My goodness, an American citizen was held for how long,

1609
01:30:27,600 --> 01:30:30,040
Speaker 1: right like until they had to prove they were you know,

1610
01:30:30,080 --> 01:30:36,160
Speaker 1: they had approved their citizenship. It's a those stories could

1611
01:30:36,160 --> 01:30:39,479
Speaker 1: start accumulating. And we're a long way away from the

1612
01:30:39,520 --> 01:30:43,639
Speaker 1: election now. Yeah, all right, the fourth of July week

1613
01:30:43,840 --> 01:30:48,200
Speaker 1: is always filled with a lot of filler stories.

1614
01:30:48,320 --> 01:30:48,479
Speaker 3: Right.

1615
01:30:48,640 --> 01:30:50,760
Speaker 1: We do it in the political world, and they do

1616
01:30:50,800 --> 01:30:52,320
Speaker 1: it in the sports world, and our friends at the

1617
01:30:52,360 --> 01:30:55,640
Speaker 1: Athletic I love this. Jason Kirk, it was you know,

1618
01:30:55,760 --> 01:30:58,120
Speaker 1: he was talking about the new the new PAC twelve.

1619
01:30:58,240 --> 01:31:01,840
Speaker 1: You're an Oregon State guy, you know, so I know

1620
01:31:01,880 --> 01:31:05,519
Speaker 1: you're still holding the flag for the PAC twelve. Sure,

1621
01:31:05,760 --> 01:31:10,519
Speaker 1: and the conference is going to stay in existence. Thank

1622
01:31:10,560 --> 01:31:13,680
Speaker 1: you to Texas State, right, which, of course is one

1623
01:31:13,680 --> 01:31:19,519
Speaker 1: of the great Pacific rim colleges in America that gets there.

1624
01:31:19,760 --> 01:31:23,120
Speaker 1: So he put together a name accuracy quotient for all

1625
01:31:23,160 --> 01:31:25,679
Speaker 1: the conferences and he ranked them from one to ten

1626
01:31:26,479 --> 01:31:29,840
Speaker 1: with basically tried to decide is the PAC twelfth the

1627
01:31:29,880 --> 01:31:32,720
Speaker 1: biggest liar or not. And what I loved about it

1628
01:31:32,760 --> 01:31:39,439
Speaker 1: is that he punished math, basically lying about math more

1629
01:31:39,479 --> 01:31:43,720
Speaker 1: than lying about geography. So the Big ten ended up

1630
01:31:43,720 --> 01:31:47,120
Speaker 1: being the most you know, basically the most misleading name

1631
01:31:47,160 --> 01:31:51,080
Speaker 1: since they have eighteen members of the Big Ten versus

1632
01:31:52,040 --> 01:31:54,680
Speaker 1: punishing the Atlantic Coast Conference for having two teams on

1633
01:31:54,720 --> 01:31:57,400
Speaker 1: the Pacific coasts. So I thought that was do you

1634
01:31:57,439 --> 01:32:00,519
Speaker 1: think that was fair that you should punish we should

1635
01:32:00,520 --> 01:32:05,040
Speaker 1: punish these conferences more for their math problems versus their

1636
01:32:05,040 --> 01:32:06,080
Speaker 1: geography problems.

1637
01:32:06,320 --> 01:32:10,240
Speaker 2: The name and the geography they seeing Stanford play in

1638
01:32:10,280 --> 01:32:14,080
Speaker 2: the A C C is a is a problem to me.

1639
01:32:14,400 --> 01:32:16,559
Speaker 2: You know, Big ten, Hey big, I guess big now

1640
01:32:16,640 --> 01:32:20,160
Speaker 2: means from California to you know, Rutgers, Rutgers, you can

1641
01:32:20,280 --> 01:32:23,400
Speaker 2: you got it's big, It's it's Big ten. Even though

1642
01:32:23,439 --> 01:32:26,320
Speaker 2: I don't you know, I will never forgive the those

1643
01:32:26,400 --> 01:32:28,679
Speaker 2: Pac ten Pac twelve teams that left for the Big Ten.

1644
01:32:29,320 --> 01:32:33,760
Speaker 2: But yeah, it is hard the a SEC. I think

1645
01:32:33,760 --> 01:32:38,040
Speaker 2: that's the that's the Texas State, Chuck, Should I remember

1646
01:32:38,120 --> 01:32:41,360
Speaker 2: Texas State growing up? At least Texas State was a

1647
01:32:41,520 --> 01:32:46,000
Speaker 2: movie featuring Sindbad and Kathy Ireland as a as a though,

1648
01:32:46,040 --> 01:32:49,160
Speaker 2: I think they were the Texas State Armadillos. Texas State

1649
01:32:49,240 --> 01:32:51,560
Speaker 2: was not a real school growing at least when I

1650
01:32:51,640 --> 01:32:52,240
Speaker 2: when I grew up.

1651
01:32:52,160 --> 01:32:54,559
Speaker 1: It was this is life imitating imitating life.

1652
01:32:54,680 --> 01:32:56,799
Speaker 2: Right now, Texas State is going to be a rival

1653
01:32:56,880 --> 01:32:59,439
Speaker 2: to the Beavers. Got I guess, but.

1654
01:33:01,400 --> 01:33:03,840
Speaker 1: Are we living in and you guys have Gonzaga now

1655
01:33:03,920 --> 01:33:06,000
Speaker 1: for like basketball? Is that right? Yeah?

1656
01:33:06,080 --> 01:33:09,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess yeah. I mean, well then we at

1657
01:33:09,800 --> 01:33:12,000
Speaker 2: least oregan station playment football. I think that would go.

1658
01:33:12,080 --> 01:33:12,519
Speaker 2: That should go.

1659
01:33:13,200 --> 01:33:17,200
Speaker 1: Actually, when you guys are doing what I the one

1660
01:33:17,280 --> 01:33:19,040
Speaker 1: thing that I love that you guys are doing. I

1661
01:33:19,040 --> 01:33:20,760
Speaker 1: think I read this correctly. Is there a home and

1662
01:33:20,840 --> 01:33:23,400
Speaker 1: home between Oregon State and Washington State now in the

1663
01:33:23,520 --> 01:33:25,040
Speaker 1: regular season for football?

1664
01:33:25,160 --> 01:33:28,320
Speaker 2: Yes, Which is funny because as this everything was sorting

1665
01:33:28,360 --> 01:33:30,600
Speaker 2: to come apart. In the Pac twelve, there was a

1666
01:33:30,640 --> 01:33:32,840
Speaker 2: funny shirt that I saw that I should have bought.

1667
01:33:32,920 --> 01:33:37,080
Speaker 2: It said, you know, week one OSU versus WSU, Week two,

1668
01:33:37,200 --> 01:33:41,360
Speaker 2: Beavers versus Cougar's week three, like Washington State versus Oregon State.

1669
01:33:41,680 --> 01:33:44,400
Speaker 2: It was just all variations. So that ended up being

1670
01:33:45,160 --> 01:33:48,439
Speaker 2: coming to life, you know, coming true. So hey, it would.

1671
01:33:48,200 --> 01:33:50,320
Speaker 1: Have been fun if they would have, if you guys

1672
01:33:50,320 --> 01:33:53,439
Speaker 1: could have forced where the Pac twelve still got the

1673
01:33:53,479 --> 01:33:56,439
Speaker 1: automatic berth right to the college football playoffs for the

1674
01:33:56,479 --> 01:33:59,679
Speaker 1: two years. I just like really and then the winner

1675
01:33:59,680 --> 01:34:02,360
Speaker 1: of the two team conference up automatic birth organ State,

1676
01:34:02,439 --> 01:34:08,000
Speaker 1: automatic birth Washington State. You know a little something. I

1677
01:34:08,040 --> 01:34:08,559
Speaker 1: don't know.

1678
01:34:08,680 --> 01:34:12,679
Speaker 2: Enough about hockey or college hockey, but I mean, isn't

1679
01:34:12,680 --> 01:34:15,519
Speaker 2: it kind of a super It's its own thing, right,

1680
01:34:15,560 --> 01:34:19,240
Speaker 2: everyone just plays. It feels like football football needs to

1681
01:34:19,240 --> 01:34:20,760
Speaker 2: be in its own.

1682
01:34:21,720 --> 01:34:23,840
Speaker 1: You're right about hockey, like Notre You know, people don't

1683
01:34:23,840 --> 01:34:26,000
Speaker 1: realize this. Notre Dame is a member of the ACC

1684
01:34:26,320 --> 01:34:29,920
Speaker 1: for every sport except two. One is football where they're

1685
01:34:29,920 --> 01:34:33,080
Speaker 1: an independent, and the second is hockey because they're in

1686
01:34:33,120 --> 01:34:35,760
Speaker 1: the Big ten for hockey. You know, so there's this

1687
01:34:35,920 --> 01:34:40,040
Speaker 1: interesting and you know that is something that I feel

1688
01:34:40,080 --> 01:34:42,280
Speaker 1: like is probably the only thing that's going to save

1689
01:34:42,360 --> 01:34:45,120
Speaker 1: athletics in college athletics, right, Like, I mean, that's the

1690
01:34:45,160 --> 01:34:47,639
Speaker 1: real if if you don't want to see sports totally

1691
01:34:47,720 --> 01:34:50,040
Speaker 1: just gone away where you're going to see and you

1692
01:34:50,040 --> 01:34:52,479
Speaker 1: know these you're reading these stories. I think I saw

1693
01:34:52,479 --> 01:34:55,320
Speaker 1: I NC State got rid of their diving program or

1694
01:34:55,360 --> 01:34:59,000
Speaker 1: like everybody but one, you know, because the non revenue sports,

1695
01:34:59,040 --> 01:35:01,040
Speaker 1: particularly the Olympics or so the ones taking it on

1696
01:35:01,040 --> 01:35:01,479
Speaker 1: the chin.

1697
01:35:03,040 --> 01:35:07,000
Speaker 2: And that with ni L what that does but to

1698
01:35:07,200 --> 01:35:10,800
Speaker 2: students who choose to go to places because of their geography.

1699
01:35:10,840 --> 01:35:12,920
Speaker 2: I think there was Remember there's a story about with

1700
01:35:13,040 --> 01:35:17,400
Speaker 2: some University of Oregon duck softball players, like we didn't

1701
01:35:17,479 --> 01:35:19,240
Speaker 2: know that we're going to be playing in New Jersey,

1702
01:35:19,400 --> 01:35:21,960
Speaker 2: Like when we signed up, they're gonna have conference games

1703
01:35:22,000 --> 01:35:22,320
Speaker 2: in New.

1704
01:35:22,320 --> 01:35:25,479
Speaker 1: Jersey, Like what you know? This is big issue for

1705
01:35:25,520 --> 01:35:28,600
Speaker 1: the parents. It's a real issue for the parents, like

1706
01:35:28,640 --> 01:35:31,000
Speaker 1: they're like, whoa you know, I want to watch my

1707
01:35:31,080 --> 01:35:33,479
Speaker 1: kid play. I got to fly all over the country

1708
01:35:33,560 --> 01:35:38,479
Speaker 1: and armor for a volleyball game. Yeah. No. By the way,

1709
01:35:38,680 --> 01:35:41,360
Speaker 1: the rest of the list that the most honest conference

1710
01:35:41,479 --> 01:35:47,479
Speaker 1: name was Conference USA because it's all within it and

1711
01:35:47,520 --> 01:35:50,240
Speaker 1: it's still a fact it's it's all within the United.

1712
01:35:51,040 --> 01:35:54,280
Speaker 2: Saskatchewan University or anything in there.

1713
01:35:54,720 --> 01:35:57,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then the American Athletic was second. Sun Belt

1714
01:35:58,040 --> 01:36:02,960
Speaker 1: got its uh is the Sun Belt is actually pretty good.

1715
01:36:03,840 --> 01:36:06,519
Speaker 1: It actually is representative of it is most of the

1716
01:36:06,560 --> 01:36:10,559
Speaker 1: schools or within the Sun Belt. James Madison, you know,

1717
01:36:10,720 --> 01:36:15,519
Speaker 1: is Virginia there it's sunny there. People wear belts right

1718
01:36:15,600 --> 01:36:19,639
Speaker 1: in Harrisonburg, I think, yeah, everyone in Liberty is well,

1719
01:36:19,720 --> 01:36:24,280
Speaker 1: well wait, James jam using sun Belt they're not cover Yeah, no,

1720
01:36:24,360 --> 01:36:27,160
Speaker 1: jam us Now in Sunbelt. They moved that is moving.

1721
01:36:27,040 --> 01:36:30,519
Speaker 2: Up right down the street from Liberty U conference US

1722
01:36:31,120 --> 01:36:34,800
Speaker 2: to close universities that are in two different conferences.

1723
01:36:35,000 --> 01:36:37,559
Speaker 1: Well and and and then their rankings. The Mountain West

1724
01:36:37,600 --> 01:36:40,439
Speaker 1: had been the original number one, and then they added

1725
01:36:40,439 --> 01:36:45,000
Speaker 1: in northern Illinois. You know, very important, you know, because

1726
01:36:45,040 --> 01:36:47,800
Speaker 1: the Chicago suburbs and the Rocky Mountains are really close

1727
01:36:47,840 --> 01:36:50,320
Speaker 1: to each other. Yeah, you know, because it's right there,

1728
01:36:50,400 --> 01:36:50,960
Speaker 1: right on the lake.

1729
01:36:51,280 --> 01:36:55,920
Speaker 2: The politics are you know, it's right, it's all yeah,

1730
01:36:55,960 --> 01:36:57,120
Speaker 2: what a mess.

1731
01:36:57,320 --> 01:37:00,320
Speaker 1: I know it is. And it's like I just sit

1732
01:37:00,360 --> 01:37:02,000
Speaker 1: here and say it's it's like, we've got to have

1733
01:37:02,040 --> 01:37:05,880
Speaker 1: a system. Oregon State, in Washington State, they belong with

1734
01:37:05,880 --> 01:37:08,160
Speaker 1: the big boys. It's not fair what happened to them.

1735
01:37:08,200 --> 01:37:10,040
Speaker 1: They just got like abandoned on the side of the road.

1736
01:37:10,479 --> 01:37:14,240
Speaker 1: And it just feels and nobody seemed to care outside

1737
01:37:14,240 --> 01:37:17,120
Speaker 1: of people in Corvallis and Spokane. But it's kind of

1738
01:37:17,120 --> 01:37:20,840
Speaker 1: a was there any attempt just quickly on politics? Was

1739
01:37:20,840 --> 01:37:23,680
Speaker 1: there any attempt in those state legislatures to do what

1740
01:37:23,720 --> 01:37:26,599
Speaker 1: the state of Virginia did with UVA in Virginia Tech.

1741
01:37:27,520 --> 01:37:31,599
Speaker 2: I don't. I think the answer is yes. I mean,

1742
01:37:31,640 --> 01:37:34,439
Speaker 2: I know nothing about what happened in the Washington legislature

1743
01:37:34,479 --> 01:37:35,759
Speaker 2: with regard to this and Oregon.

1744
01:37:35,880 --> 01:37:41,160
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't know. I mean, nobody crosses fill

1745
01:37:41,320 --> 01:37:41,640
Speaker 1: Night right.

1746
01:37:41,720 --> 01:37:45,880
Speaker 2: Whatever happened behind the scenes, and then it was sort

1747
01:37:45,920 --> 01:37:49,680
Speaker 2: of just was like sprung. And I guess I only

1748
01:37:49,720 --> 01:37:51,840
Speaker 2: hope that some of these schools had left. They're they're

1749
01:37:52,000 --> 01:37:55,280
Speaker 2: they are punished in many just they've realized that it's

1750
01:37:55,280 --> 01:37:57,000
Speaker 2: more difficult, that it wasn't just money.

1751
01:37:57,640 --> 01:38:00,960
Speaker 1: This money grab was not worth it. Yeah, Oregon will.

1752
01:38:01,080 --> 01:38:03,559
Speaker 1: It'll still be decades Oregon before you get to win

1753
01:38:03,600 --> 01:38:04,880
Speaker 1: an actual national title.

1754
01:38:05,560 --> 01:38:08,479
Speaker 2: That was getting having to face Ohio State in the

1755
01:38:08,520 --> 01:38:10,839
Speaker 2: first round their first game in the playoffs.

1756
01:38:11,520 --> 01:38:15,000
Speaker 1: That's a brutal first draw. And I'm guessing you didn't care.

1757
01:38:15,120 --> 01:38:17,240
Speaker 1: You're like, yeah, you guys, you guys are the one

1758
01:38:17,240 --> 01:38:17,880
Speaker 1: to ask for this.

1759
01:38:18,160 --> 01:38:20,599
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, I have a sense of state pride,

1760
01:38:20,680 --> 01:38:23,479
Speaker 2: but you know it's but in a game between Ohio

1761
01:38:23,479 --> 01:38:25,519
Speaker 2: State and Oregon that one of them has to win,

1762
01:38:25,560 --> 01:38:28,800
Speaker 2: and it's a loss for America. We wish that both

1763
01:38:28,840 --> 01:38:29,680
Speaker 2: teams could lose that.

1764
01:38:29,640 --> 01:38:31,000
Speaker 1: Game fair enough.

1765
01:38:31,000 --> 01:38:33,439
Speaker 2: I'm going to alienate how many other states can I alienate?

1766
01:38:33,479 --> 01:38:38,880
Speaker 1: Here? Right right, very quickly? Inside Elections? Where can people

1767
01:38:38,920 --> 01:38:40,040
Speaker 1: find you? Sure?

1768
01:38:40,320 --> 01:38:43,360
Speaker 2: Inside elections dot Com you can also I'm I'm on

1769
01:38:43,560 --> 01:38:47,000
Speaker 2: I'm still on x slash Twitter at Nathan Elgin's ALSBI.

1770
01:38:47,040 --> 01:38:50,360
Speaker 2: You should also following my colleague Jacob Rubashkin. He is

1771
01:38:50,520 --> 01:38:52,840
Speaker 2: much better at social media than I am and has

1772
01:38:52,960 --> 01:38:55,679
Speaker 2: always had some great tidbits that he's dropping in his feed.

1773
01:38:55,800 --> 01:38:57,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, check us out Inside Elections.

1774
01:38:58,400 --> 01:39:01,639
Speaker 1: It's it's great and it is Yes, it costs the money,

1775
01:39:01,680 --> 01:39:03,280
Speaker 1: but you get good insight and.

1776
01:39:03,320 --> 01:39:05,880
Speaker 2: Actually check Something that doesn't cost money is our Insight

1777
01:39:05,960 --> 01:39:09,240
Speaker 2: Elections podcast And in our most recent episode, we had

1778
01:39:09,520 --> 01:39:12,559
Speaker 2: Stu my former boss mentor in colleague, Stu Rothenberg on

1779
01:39:13,280 --> 01:39:14,519
Speaker 2: episode fifty for us.

1780
01:39:14,600 --> 01:39:17,759
Speaker 1: So that was a fun walked home memory you tape

1781
01:39:17,840 --> 01:39:20,800
Speaker 1: Did you tape it after a Yankees win or during

1782
01:39:20,840 --> 01:39:23,759
Speaker 1: that losing streak? It was it was in the middle

1783
01:39:23,760 --> 01:39:27,240
Speaker 1: of the day. So Cranky is my favorite.

1784
01:39:27,320 --> 01:39:31,000
Speaker 2: Do you know he's got a reputation to live up to.

1785
01:39:31,120 --> 01:39:34,120
Speaker 2: But it's but it's funny and yeah, the podcast costs nothing.

1786
01:39:34,160 --> 01:39:35,639
Speaker 2: You can you can get a taste of what we're

1787
01:39:35,800 --> 01:39:38,519
Speaker 2: what we're trying to do. So Nathan and Zalas good

1788
01:39:38,520 --> 01:39:39,960
Speaker 2: to see it. Thank you about Thank you check.

1789
01:39:47,760 --> 01:39:52,360
Speaker 1: I love, as you know, anytime I can turn any

1790
01:39:52,360 --> 01:39:55,040
Speaker 1: conversation into something about college football, I'm going to do it.

1791
01:39:55,840 --> 01:39:58,840
Speaker 1: But I love what the athletic did in creating that

1792
01:39:58,960 --> 01:40:02,360
Speaker 1: ranking system, and I'm you know it bothers me. We

1793
01:40:02,360 --> 01:40:07,120
Speaker 1: don't teach geography anyway. I learned geography by learning the conferences.

1794
01:40:07,320 --> 01:40:09,280
Speaker 1: My dad used to quiz me, you know about these

1795
01:40:09,320 --> 01:40:12,320
Speaker 1: different these different conferences, because it was a way to

1796
01:40:12,320 --> 01:40:16,639
Speaker 1: teach geography to a young Chuck Todd in the early eighties.

1797
01:40:18,280 --> 01:40:21,000
Speaker 1: The only conference back then that had no sort of

1798
01:40:21,600 --> 01:40:25,800
Speaker 1: geographic identity was the old Metro Conference. It was a

1799
01:40:25,800 --> 01:40:30,400
Speaker 1: collection of independent football schools that wanted to have a

1800
01:40:30,439 --> 01:40:33,680
Speaker 1: conference for other sports. It had Florida State in it,

1801
01:40:33,840 --> 01:40:37,000
Speaker 1: South Carolina, University of New Orleans was in it, TU

1802
01:40:37,080 --> 01:40:39,679
Speaker 1: Lane was in it. It was it was an interesting

1803
01:40:39,720 --> 01:40:45,120
Speaker 1: eclectic group of schools. I remember it was. I ended

1804
01:40:45,200 --> 01:40:47,559
Speaker 1: up watching a lot of Metro Conference basketball because we

1805
01:40:47,560 --> 01:40:50,519
Speaker 1: didn't have cable, but the one of the UHF stations

1806
01:40:50,560 --> 01:40:54,040
Speaker 1: had the rights to Metro Conference basketball because there was

1807
01:40:54,160 --> 01:40:57,559
Speaker 1: enough Florida State alums in the South Florida area for that.

1808
01:40:57,680 --> 01:41:01,559
Speaker 1: So and then there was a bunch of old Miami

1809
01:41:01,600 --> 01:41:04,360
Speaker 1: high school stars that one of one of the Corchiani

1810
01:41:04,439 --> 01:41:06,800
Speaker 1: brothers played for the University of New Orleans, had a

1811
01:41:07,000 --> 01:41:08,960
Speaker 1: hell of a had a hell of a three point shot,

1812
01:41:10,000 --> 01:41:14,200
Speaker 1: and they were they were. But that was But other

1813
01:41:14,280 --> 01:41:19,759
Speaker 1: than the Metro Conference, every other conference was geographically honest. Well,

1814
01:41:20,160 --> 01:41:23,320
Speaker 1: there is no more honesty in geography or math when

1815
01:41:23,320 --> 01:41:25,720
Speaker 1: it comes to the college conferences. All right, let me

1816
01:41:25,720 --> 01:41:28,120
Speaker 1: take a few questions a little ast, Chuck, ask Chuck.

1817
01:41:32,680 --> 01:41:36,760
Speaker 1: All right, first one comes from India. Just one, uh

1818
01:41:37,000 --> 01:41:39,840
Speaker 1: sour Raba. I hope I got that Soraba. I hope

1819
01:41:39,840 --> 01:41:42,320
Speaker 1: I got your name right. Apologies if I just totally

1820
01:41:42,320 --> 01:41:47,040
Speaker 1: mangled it. You are from Pune, India, and you're right.

1821
01:41:47,040 --> 01:41:49,280
Speaker 1: I've been a regular listener since last year. Well, thank

1822
01:41:49,320 --> 01:41:51,519
Speaker 1: you and appreciate your of all college I've generally been

1823
01:41:51,720 --> 01:41:54,160
Speaker 1: a little frustrated by the fact that, despite massive evidence

1824
01:41:54,200 --> 01:41:57,200
Speaker 1: of Pakistani support for terrorism, the US always seems to

1825
01:41:57,240 --> 01:41:59,559
Speaker 1: lean into backing Pakistan. At what point does the US,

1826
01:42:00,080 --> 01:42:04,200
Speaker 1: specific to any presidential administration, realizes that and starts actively

1827
01:42:04,240 --> 01:42:07,960
Speaker 1: supporting India's fight against Pakistan sponsored terrorism without waiting into

1828
01:42:08,000 --> 01:42:12,040
Speaker 1: any territorial disputes. Would love to know your take on that. Thanks. Well, actually,

1829
01:42:12,280 --> 01:42:15,559
Speaker 1: you know, look, as you know, you know this better

1830
01:42:15,840 --> 01:42:19,640
Speaker 1: better than I do or most of the listeners. This,

1831
01:42:19,640 --> 01:42:23,920
Speaker 1: this sort of allegiance or historical allegiance that the United

1832
01:42:23,920 --> 01:42:26,240
Speaker 1: States had with Pakistan goes back to the Cold War,

1833
01:42:26,560 --> 01:42:31,840
Speaker 1: right when India was semi aligned with the Russians and

1834
01:42:31,880 --> 01:42:34,599
Speaker 1: with the Soviets, and and I say semi aligned, it

1835
01:42:34,640 --> 01:42:36,360
Speaker 1: was never it was more of a non aligned thing,

1836
01:42:36,400 --> 01:42:40,320
Speaker 1: but there was this this certainly there was a strategic

1837
01:42:40,400 --> 01:42:44,600
Speaker 1: and geographic reason right with with Pakistan. But starting with

1838
01:42:44,680 --> 01:42:47,200
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton, right, there's been a concerted effort, and it's

1839
01:42:47,240 --> 01:42:49,599
Speaker 1: been a bipartisan effort. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush,

1840
01:42:49,640 --> 01:42:54,080
Speaker 1: Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden. There's you know, there

1841
01:42:54,080 --> 01:42:57,400
Speaker 1: are not many things that that these those American presidents

1842
01:42:57,760 --> 01:43:01,120
Speaker 1: I've agreed on other but on this improving relations with

1843
01:43:01,200 --> 01:43:04,840
Speaker 1: India as a as a as at least a top

1844
01:43:04,880 --> 01:43:08,920
Speaker 1: three issue in Asia, has been that way for thirty years.

1845
01:43:09,320 --> 01:43:11,519
Speaker 1: And if you look out over the thirty year time

1846
01:43:11,600 --> 01:43:15,640
Speaker 1: span here right from the you know, the dub the

1847
01:43:15,760 --> 01:43:19,840
Speaker 1: engagement that the Clintons began, and going all the way through.

1848
01:43:19,880 --> 01:43:21,920
Speaker 1: I still have this memory of this trip that Hillary

1849
01:43:21,920 --> 01:43:24,679
Speaker 1: Clinton and Chelsea Clinton made to India where they were

1850
01:43:24,720 --> 01:43:27,559
Speaker 1: just the red carpet and then some was rolled out

1851
01:43:28,280 --> 01:43:32,920
Speaker 1: back in the day. I think it's pretty clear that

1852
01:43:33,200 --> 01:43:37,200
Speaker 1: we're moving closer and closer to India, and a lot

1853
01:43:37,200 --> 01:43:38,800
Speaker 1: of it has to do with China. Right. This is

1854
01:43:39,320 --> 01:43:41,880
Speaker 1: you know, this is real politic for both countries. Right

1855
01:43:41,960 --> 01:43:44,519
Speaker 1: India has always been I think, very good about trying

1856
01:43:44,520 --> 01:43:49,639
Speaker 1: to keep you know, as many relations positive as they can.

1857
01:43:49,800 --> 01:43:55,400
Speaker 1: But there's no doubt China. China that is you know,

1858
01:43:55,760 --> 01:44:00,879
Speaker 1: a front of me at best, or a rival or worse.

1859
01:44:01,680 --> 01:44:05,800
Speaker 1: And certainly the US and India both have fear, you know,

1860
01:44:05,880 --> 01:44:10,160
Speaker 1: skepticism of China in common. You know. The issue with

1861
01:44:10,200 --> 01:44:12,320
Speaker 1: Pakistan is that there are a nuclear power, and I

1862
01:44:12,320 --> 01:44:16,840
Speaker 1: think there's always concern about you know, you I think

1863
01:44:16,880 --> 01:44:19,960
Speaker 1: there's always going to be a constituency in the United

1864
01:44:19,960 --> 01:44:22,679
Speaker 1: States it says we've got to keep Pakistan as close

1865
01:44:22,720 --> 01:44:26,120
Speaker 1: as possible. You don't want them falling into the wrong hands.

1866
01:44:26,120 --> 01:44:29,439
Speaker 1: It's suddenly those nukes fall into the wrong hands. I mean, arguably,

1867
01:44:29,479 --> 01:44:32,799
Speaker 1: Pakistan has been the leaky uh, It's been the leaky

1868
01:44:33,479 --> 01:44:37,360
Speaker 1: nuclear state that has allowed nuclear programs to pop up

1869
01:44:37,400 --> 01:44:40,240
Speaker 1: in North Korea and in Iran and some of these rogue,

1870
01:44:40,439 --> 01:44:45,960
Speaker 1: rogue states. So and there's obviously the instability of that government,

1871
01:44:46,880 --> 01:44:52,040
Speaker 1: you know, between the various factions, the military versus the

1872
01:44:52,080 --> 01:44:59,320
Speaker 1: intelligence versus the the I guess call them the bureaucrats,

1873
01:44:59,400 --> 01:45:00,880
Speaker 1: right then none, you know, if you're not aligned with

1874
01:45:00,920 --> 01:45:05,200
Speaker 1: the ethoos two. So I guess I would argue, and

1875
01:45:05,240 --> 01:45:07,639
Speaker 1: I see it from your perspective, but I would argue

1876
01:45:07,640 --> 01:45:10,559
Speaker 1: that that the United States has been trying really hard

1877
01:45:10,600 --> 01:45:14,840
Speaker 1: to essentially become more friendly to India. But that but

1878
01:45:14,960 --> 01:45:18,800
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna I mean, look, Pakistan was

1879
01:45:18,840 --> 01:45:20,720
Speaker 1: a thorn in the United States side and trying to

1880
01:45:20,720 --> 01:45:24,479
Speaker 1: deal with Afghanistan, right and Pakistan, you know, look what

1881
01:45:24,560 --> 01:45:27,200
Speaker 1: they did with you know, creating you know, having the

1882
01:45:27,240 --> 01:45:29,439
Speaker 1: safe haven with Osama bin Laden. Do we really believe

1883
01:45:29,439 --> 01:45:31,800
Speaker 1: the Pakistani government didn't know where he was for all

1884
01:45:31,800 --> 01:45:38,479
Speaker 1: that time? So it is I think it's because of

1885
01:45:38,479 --> 01:45:42,200
Speaker 1: the nukes the nuclear program of why there hasn't been

1886
01:45:42,600 --> 01:45:47,680
Speaker 1: why you haven't seen any administration go hard against the

1887
01:45:47,680 --> 01:45:51,000
Speaker 1: Pakistanis on that front. So I suspect you're going to

1888
01:45:51,040 --> 01:45:54,360
Speaker 1: continue to see what was sort of fifty to fifty

1889
01:45:54,400 --> 01:45:57,599
Speaker 1: diplomacy for a while. I would argue it is going

1890
01:45:57,640 --> 01:46:00,000
Speaker 1: to be more in the seventy thirty camp where India

1891
01:46:00,040 --> 01:46:03,719
Speaker 1: gets seventy percent of our love and affection versus thirty

1892
01:46:03,840 --> 01:46:07,800
Speaker 1: on the Pakistani side. Out that was helpful. It may

1893
01:46:07,840 --> 01:46:09,479
Speaker 1: not be the answer you were looking for, but I

1894
01:46:09,520 --> 01:46:14,599
Speaker 1: think that's that's in my experience. There's just enough. Look

1895
01:46:14,720 --> 01:46:19,000
Speaker 1: and Pakistan is sort of you know, they're a They're

1896
01:46:19,040 --> 01:46:23,680
Speaker 1: in an interesting neighborhood right with Iran, Afghanistan and all

1897
01:46:23,720 --> 01:46:25,720
Speaker 1: of that. So I think there's always going to be

1898
01:46:25,720 --> 01:46:27,960
Speaker 1: a constituency that says, hey, don't don't let them get

1899
01:46:27,960 --> 01:46:31,880
Speaker 1: too far away from this sphere of influence. All right.

1900
01:46:32,040 --> 01:46:36,840
Speaker 1: Second question from Drew a Phoenix, Arizona, all the way

1901
01:46:36,880 --> 01:46:40,880
Speaker 1: to Tacoma, Philadelphia, Atlanta, LA. Hello, Chuck and team. Frequent

1902
01:46:41,000 --> 01:46:42,960
Speaker 1: question ask her here, Yes you are. You've said Democrats

1903
01:46:43,040 --> 01:46:46,160
Speaker 1: need a real fighter, a real fight over capitalism versus socialism.

1904
01:46:46,160 --> 01:46:49,080
Speaker 1: Obama Clinton versus Bernie AOC Mamdani. But Bernie and AOC's

1905
01:46:49,080 --> 01:46:51,760
Speaker 1: goals sound more like a return to pre Reagan capitalism

1906
01:46:51,760 --> 01:46:56,120
Speaker 1: than actual socialism. High tax rates, stronger unions, less inequality.

1907
01:46:56,360 --> 01:46:57,840
Speaker 1: So why don't they frame it that way? And why

1908
01:46:57,880 --> 01:47:01,280
Speaker 1: not say we're looking out looking out for the Jeff

1909
01:47:01,280 --> 01:47:03,680
Speaker 1: Bezos of nineteen ninety five, or Republicans are protecting the

1910
01:47:03,720 --> 01:47:06,880
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos of twenty twenty five. That's a much less

1911
01:47:06,880 --> 01:47:09,680
Speaker 1: provocative and probably more effective message, especially in places like

1912
01:47:09,720 --> 01:47:12,559
Speaker 1: South Florida where the word socialism turns people off. Obviously,

1913
01:47:12,640 --> 01:47:14,240
Speaker 1: I have a point of view here, but what am

1914
01:47:14,240 --> 01:47:16,439
Speaker 1: I missing? Would love your take? Born and raised in Seattle,

1915
01:47:16,640 --> 01:47:20,000
Speaker 1: GW A lum now tuning in from Phoenix, Dure. It's

1916
01:47:20,040 --> 01:47:22,519
Speaker 1: an interesting way of framing it, And I think that

1917
01:47:22,520 --> 01:47:25,559
Speaker 1: that's the real question, right, I'm you know? I do

1918
01:47:25,600 --> 01:47:29,640
Speaker 1: think you know Bernie Sanders is a true believer and

1919
01:47:29,760 --> 01:47:34,559
Speaker 1: doesn't doesn't always isn't always open to coming up with

1920
01:47:34,640 --> 01:47:38,840
Speaker 1: better ways to message his beliefs. But I think both

1921
01:47:38,840 --> 01:47:42,519
Speaker 1: AOC and Mom Donnie, being younger, a bit more media savvy,

1922
01:47:43,640 --> 01:47:47,400
Speaker 1: are are probably more open to suggesting that. And you're

1923
01:47:47,400 --> 01:47:49,200
Speaker 1: not wrong, I mean you know, the tax rates of

1924
01:47:49,240 --> 01:47:51,919
Speaker 1: the of the seventies and of the of the sixties

1925
01:47:51,920 --> 01:47:55,599
Speaker 1: and seventies and eighties or early eighties. It's an interesting

1926
01:47:55,840 --> 01:48:00,160
Speaker 1: it's an interesting frame that you've come up with, and

1927
01:48:00,720 --> 01:48:03,920
Speaker 1: you're but I don't know if I fully agree that, Hey,

1928
01:48:03,920 --> 01:48:06,160
Speaker 1: they're looking out for the Jeff Bezos is twenty of

1929
01:48:06,240 --> 01:48:09,599
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety five. You know. You know when mom Donnie

1930
01:48:09,640 --> 01:48:12,400
Speaker 1: says he doesn't think there should be any billionaires, you

1931
01:48:12,439 --> 01:48:17,080
Speaker 1: know it, I think that does he believe in entrepreneurship?

1932
01:48:17,120 --> 01:48:20,000
Speaker 1: Does he want to see you know, most entrepreneurs don't

1933
01:48:20,000 --> 01:48:21,679
Speaker 1: want to have a ceiling on what they can earn,

1934
01:48:21,920 --> 01:48:24,000
Speaker 1: right and what their ambition is, even if they never

1935
01:48:24,040 --> 01:48:26,280
Speaker 1: get there right. I think that that the so called

1936
01:48:26,280 --> 01:48:29,720
Speaker 1: American dream. Nobody wants to see a ceiling put on it.

1937
01:48:29,800 --> 01:48:33,040
Speaker 1: Nobody wants to see a hard cap on that or

1938
01:48:33,200 --> 01:48:36,800
Speaker 1: for u NBA fans, a second apron if you will. So,

1939
01:48:37,360 --> 01:48:42,360
Speaker 1: I just but yes, I think figuring out how to

1940
01:48:42,360 --> 01:48:47,000
Speaker 1: frame it differently. This weekend I have an interview with

1941
01:48:47,120 --> 01:48:51,160
Speaker 1: Ron Emmanuel for the Newspheres show, and he made an

1942
01:48:51,160 --> 01:48:54,080
Speaker 1: interesting and I'm gonna I don't want to give away

1943
01:48:54,240 --> 01:48:56,040
Speaker 1: a lot of the interview. But you know, I asked

1944
01:48:56,120 --> 01:48:58,320
Speaker 1: him about Donnie, and he really went out of his

1945
01:48:58,360 --> 01:49:02,680
Speaker 1: way to say, look, you know, Mom, Donnie is identifying

1946
01:49:02,720 --> 01:49:05,040
Speaker 1: similar problems that all of us are identifying. You know,

1947
01:49:06,240 --> 01:49:08,599
Speaker 1: we just disagree on the solutions. And he said, take

1948
01:49:08,640 --> 01:49:13,240
Speaker 1: grocery stores. Take take food deserts. Grocery store deserts, he said,

1949
01:49:13,320 --> 01:49:15,720
Speaker 1: you know, his the way he tried to solve it

1950
01:49:15,760 --> 01:49:18,639
Speaker 1: in Chicago was you get the groceries together and say, hey,

1951
01:49:19,040 --> 01:49:21,599
Speaker 1: if you put a grocery store in this new food desert,

1952
01:49:22,920 --> 01:49:27,439
Speaker 1: I'll give you, you know, essentially a tax break on

1953
01:49:27,479 --> 01:49:30,800
Speaker 1: your other on all your locations in the Chicago Land area.

1954
01:49:31,600 --> 01:49:34,120
Speaker 1: Versus what you know, Mom, Donnie says, I'll open a

1955
01:49:34,160 --> 01:49:36,559
Speaker 1: grocery store in that food desert, you know, rather than

1956
01:49:36,760 --> 01:49:39,760
Speaker 1: incentivizing the private sector to do it. And that is

1957
01:49:40,160 --> 01:49:42,000
Speaker 1: you know, if you're that is that is a difference

1958
01:49:42,000 --> 01:49:45,920
Speaker 1: in that solution. Right, they both are identifying the same problem.

1959
01:49:47,439 --> 01:49:51,800
Speaker 1: The question is what's the most effective solution on that front.

1960
01:49:51,880 --> 01:49:56,559
Speaker 1: So look, I do think it's on Mom Donnie to

1961
01:49:56,680 --> 01:49:59,680
Speaker 1: figure out how to broaden the appeal to his message.

1962
01:50:00,560 --> 01:50:04,120
Speaker 1: I think, you know, look, labels in this country get

1963
01:50:04,120 --> 01:50:07,920
Speaker 1: weaponized quickly right, whether you're a liberal or conservative or progressive,

1964
01:50:07,960 --> 01:50:10,439
Speaker 1: a maga. So you need to figure out how to

1965
01:50:10,439 --> 01:50:13,400
Speaker 1: get rid of your labels. And what I say is

1966
01:50:13,400 --> 01:50:17,560
Speaker 1: go speak American, right, go go go make it digestible

1967
01:50:17,680 --> 01:50:22,639
Speaker 1: to folks. Get out of the labeling game if you can,

1968
01:50:23,560 --> 01:50:26,840
Speaker 1: and don't be defensive about it either, but just say,

1969
01:50:26,880 --> 01:50:31,520
Speaker 1: you know, don't don't categorize yourself. And I think, unfortunately

1970
01:50:32,040 --> 01:50:34,519
Speaker 1: you know, because we constantly look we in the media

1971
01:50:34,560 --> 01:50:38,680
Speaker 1: do it. We put people in these categories. So you

1972
01:50:38,720 --> 01:50:41,320
Speaker 1: can say, but I would try to fight that, but

1973
01:50:41,800 --> 01:50:45,599
Speaker 1: I think your basic point is, you know, they might

1974
01:50:45,680 --> 01:50:47,640
Speaker 1: have a winning message here if they figure out how

1975
01:50:47,680 --> 01:50:52,640
Speaker 1: to broaden broaden the appeal of that message, and you

1976
01:50:52,640 --> 01:50:55,880
Speaker 1: know you can fight for the same thing and not

1977
01:50:56,000 --> 01:50:59,320
Speaker 1: use the S word at the same time. All right.

1978
01:51:00,080 --> 01:51:02,439
Speaker 1: Question comes from James E and he writes, I have

1979
01:51:02,479 --> 01:51:04,479
Speaker 1: four young children five four to two and seven months,

1980
01:51:04,520 --> 01:51:06,880
Speaker 1: so the vaccine approach of RFK Junior really scares me.

1981
01:51:07,080 --> 01:51:09,680
Speaker 1: It's not just about changing how we view vaccines. If classmates,

1982
01:51:09,680 --> 01:51:12,519
Speaker 1: if my kids stop getting vaccinated, or if the schedule changes,

1983
01:51:12,560 --> 01:51:15,280
Speaker 1: it could raise costs and limit access for everyone, making

1984
01:51:15,360 --> 01:51:18,720
Speaker 1: this all more vulnerable. Why is this scene as just

1985
01:51:18,720 --> 01:51:21,479
Speaker 1: an RFK issue. Trump appointed him. This is really Trump's

1986
01:51:21,479 --> 01:51:24,120
Speaker 1: stamp on vaccine. Why doesn't he get held more accountable

1987
01:51:24,160 --> 01:51:29,280
Speaker 1: for this? Thanks? Look, I hope if you're listening to

1988
01:51:29,320 --> 01:51:31,360
Speaker 1: my answer to your question, James, I hope it means

1989
01:51:31,360 --> 01:51:34,200
Speaker 1: you heard my intro at the top. I think this

1990
01:51:34,360 --> 01:51:38,720
Speaker 1: is the this is the disaster and plain sight that

1991
01:51:38,840 --> 01:51:41,840
Speaker 1: we're not covering enough collectively. When I say collectively, right

1992
01:51:41,880 --> 01:51:47,639
Speaker 1: where there's more coverage of Jeffrey Epstein's mythical client list

1993
01:51:47,720 --> 01:51:50,880
Speaker 1: right now, then there is the latest update on the

1994
01:51:50,920 --> 01:51:56,320
Speaker 1: measles outbreak, which only keeps growing. I think, Look, I

1995
01:51:56,600 --> 01:51:59,920
Speaker 1: single RFK out more than Trump, you know, and you're right,

1996
01:52:00,040 --> 01:52:02,960
Speaker 1: you know, but look, I think the end of the day,

1997
01:52:03,000 --> 01:52:06,439
Speaker 1: this RFK has created this movement, he has led this movement,

1998
01:52:06,720 --> 01:52:11,120
Speaker 1: and then Trump put him in a position to weaponize

1999
01:52:11,120 --> 01:52:15,639
Speaker 1: this movement and use the power of government to endorse

2000
01:52:15,720 --> 01:52:20,360
Speaker 1: these fringe ideas. And you know, this is the real

2001
01:52:20,439 --> 01:52:24,760
Speaker 1: danger of Trump two point zero here. When you put

2002
01:52:24,840 --> 01:52:30,240
Speaker 1: people like Dan Bongino, Cash Ptel, Bobby Kennedy Junior, who

2003
01:52:30,520 --> 01:52:33,599
Speaker 1: are conspiracy theorists, who made their name as conspiracy theorists,

2004
01:52:35,000 --> 01:52:38,840
Speaker 1: who you know, I don't know what to believe. I think,

2005
01:52:39,120 --> 01:52:44,800
Speaker 1: you know Kennedy, you know, I guess I shouldn't question

2006
01:52:44,880 --> 01:52:47,759
Speaker 1: whether he really believes this stuff. I guess he does,

2007
01:52:49,120 --> 01:52:52,080
Speaker 1: but he has zero credibility and he is zero. There

2008
01:52:52,160 --> 01:52:54,559
Speaker 1: is nothing in his background that gives them credibility in

2009
01:52:54,600 --> 01:52:58,960
Speaker 1: these issues. In my opinion, there's nothing he's done, there's

2010
01:52:59,040 --> 01:53:01,720
Speaker 1: nothing he's studied to me that gives them credibility on

2011
01:53:01,800 --> 01:53:05,400
Speaker 1: these issues, and yet he is is scene is as

2012
01:53:05,479 --> 01:53:09,960
Speaker 1: the answer on all this stuff. So you know, you

2013
01:53:10,000 --> 01:53:11,439
Speaker 1: ask why does our why is this more of an

2014
01:53:11,479 --> 01:53:13,720
Speaker 1: RFK issue? In the Trump issue was because RFK created this.

2015
01:53:14,360 --> 01:53:18,360
Speaker 1: You know, Trump just borrowed Kennedy because Kennedy was important

2016
01:53:18,360 --> 01:53:20,080
Speaker 1: to him. He was losing votes to Kennedy in a

2017
01:53:20,080 --> 01:53:22,880
Speaker 1: three way race. Getting Kennedy in in this was the

2018
01:53:22,920 --> 01:53:25,439
Speaker 1: political daily cut. I guess you got to give Trump

2019
01:53:25,479 --> 01:53:28,280
Speaker 1: credit for keeping his word of nominating him to the

2020
01:53:28,280 --> 01:53:31,400
Speaker 1: one job he wanted, which was to destroy the vaccine

2021
01:53:31,400 --> 01:53:36,640
Speaker 1: policy of the United States at HHS. But look, I

2022
01:53:36,640 --> 01:53:41,240
Speaker 1: think this is the I think, you know, there's a

2023
01:53:41,280 --> 01:53:43,320
Speaker 1: lot of things they've done that have that are going

2024
01:53:43,360 --> 01:53:46,720
Speaker 1: to potentially create long term damage and long term consequences.

2025
01:53:47,320 --> 01:53:51,920
Speaker 1: But you know, we we were the trust in government issues,

2026
01:53:52,000 --> 01:53:54,960
Speaker 1: whether it's the missing weapons of mass destruction with a rock,

2027
01:53:55,080 --> 01:53:58,519
Speaker 1: the the the you know, the looking the other way,

2028
01:53:58,640 --> 01:54:02,240
Speaker 1: holding nobody accountable for the Great Recession and the and

2029
01:54:02,280 --> 01:54:08,560
Speaker 1: the financial catastrophe. I understand that government has an exactly

2030
01:54:08,760 --> 01:54:12,639
Speaker 1: the government's word hasn't been very good with the public

2031
01:54:12,800 --> 01:54:17,360
Speaker 1: for a couple of decades now, but this administration may

2032
01:54:17,600 --> 01:54:20,160
Speaker 1: may put it in a place where it's unrecoverable, that

2033
01:54:20,240 --> 01:54:23,040
Speaker 1: it's going to take decades for the government to get

2034
01:54:23,680 --> 01:54:27,200
Speaker 1: its trust of the public back. But there's no doubt

2035
01:54:27,200 --> 01:54:31,640
Speaker 1: in my mind that Kennedy Cash batal Bongino in particular,

2036
01:54:32,720 --> 01:54:37,360
Speaker 1: all they're doing is making the country less trusting of

2037
01:54:37,360 --> 01:54:42,240
Speaker 1: government by their actions every single day. My word, all right,

2038
01:54:42,480 --> 01:54:46,320
Speaker 1: that was that was a That was a downer. I

2039
01:54:46,360 --> 01:54:53,080
Speaker 1: don't want to end on a downer, so I'm gonna

2040
01:54:53,720 --> 01:54:56,360
Speaker 1: I'm going to end with a quick little note on

2041
01:54:56,480 --> 01:54:59,360
Speaker 1: the on the home run derby because as a baseball

2042
01:54:59,400 --> 01:55:01,800
Speaker 1: fan and as an that's all I got. My man

2043
01:55:01,920 --> 01:55:04,600
Speaker 1: James Wood is in it. I'm looking forward to this.

2044
01:55:04,600 --> 01:55:07,680
Speaker 1: This is all we got this year is Nationals fans, right,

2045
01:55:07,720 --> 01:55:12,080
Speaker 1: we can't fire the owners. I have no idea what

2046
01:55:12,200 --> 01:55:16,280
Speaker 1: they've done with their front office. It's a mess. The

2047
01:55:16,360 --> 01:55:21,360
Speaker 1: team is under financed, it is certainly has an owner

2048
01:55:21,400 --> 01:55:25,840
Speaker 1: that isn't interested in building a winner right now. So

2049
01:55:25,920 --> 01:55:27,800
Speaker 1: all we got to hang our hat on is James Wood.

2050
01:55:28,080 --> 01:55:30,120
Speaker 1: I will just promise you. I think I said this before,

2051
01:55:30,440 --> 01:55:34,600
Speaker 1: because this is all I have, right but at least

2052
01:55:34,640 --> 01:55:36,960
Speaker 1: climbing the bandwagon with me and root for James Wood

2053
01:55:37,440 --> 01:55:40,040
Speaker 1: to win the home run derby. We Washington baseball fans.

2054
01:55:40,080 --> 01:55:43,240
Speaker 1: That's all we got. That is all we got. All right,

2055
01:55:43,520 --> 01:55:48,160
Speaker 1: with that, enjoy your weekend because this is dropping on Thursday.

2056
01:55:48,400 --> 01:55:51,640
Speaker 1: Enjoy your July weekend. Hope weather doesn't disrupt whatever great

2057
01:55:51,640 --> 01:55:54,440
Speaker 1: planes you have for your first weekend after the fourth

2058
01:55:54,440 --> 01:55:57,080
Speaker 1: of July. And with that, see on Monday when we

2059
01:55:57,120 --> 01:55:57,640
Speaker 1: upload again.