WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: John Stoltzfus & Jay Bryson

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea, and

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<v Speaker 1>we say good morning to all of you. It's been

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<v Speaker 1>a fabulous week endless strong conversations. Hard to pick two

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<v Speaker 1>each day. John Stolfus on Fire today, we got in

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<v Speaker 1>a series of people who said courage in early April,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've looked to be right. John Stolphus leading away

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<v Speaker 1>there with aggressive calls and the Standard and Poors five

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and what John Stolfus emphasized to us is the

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<v Speaker 1>private investor has changed. They've gone from cocktail chat to

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<v Speaker 1>their retirement study.

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<v Speaker 2>The private investor today is investing very differently from the

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<v Speaker 2>way they did when I got into this business forty

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<v Speaker 2>two years ago. Forty two years ago, private investors were

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<v Speaker 2>called the retail investor, and it was really cocktail party

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<v Speaker 2>stocks for most people. Some people did invest seriously for

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<v Speaker 2>their for my ant, for example, was a serious investors.

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<v Speaker 2>That's where I come from, you know. But when we

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<v Speaker 2>look at the environment today, it's you've got the private

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<v Speaker 2>investors looking towards their retirement or in retirement.

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<v Speaker 3>Is can say for the boomers, my.

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<v Speaker 2>Gosh, we've got longevity here. You've got to prepare for it.

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<v Speaker 1>John Stolf is there of op go joining us on

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<v Speaker 1>a path to retirement. Next week, after many years of

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<v Speaker 1>commitment to Wells Fargo, Jay Brison will retire. We had

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<v Speaker 1>a good conversation where they had a global economics Jay

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<v Speaker 1>Brison on a changing America.

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<v Speaker 3>The quality of the data I think has always been

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<v Speaker 3>pretty good. I don't think that's the big change. I

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<v Speaker 3>think the big change over the last three or four

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<v Speaker 3>decades it's just the structure, the overall structure of the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>I was talking to somebody about this yesterday and we

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<v Speaker 3>were talking about you know, if you go back to

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<v Speaker 3>the oil shocks of the nineteen seventies, right, if you

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<v Speaker 3>were an economist in nineteen seventy five and you were

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<v Speaker 3>Rip van Winkle and you went asleep for the next

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<v Speaker 3>you know, thirty years or something like that, and you

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<v Speaker 3>see you saw the inflation of say twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 3>you would look at that and you say, oh my god,

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<v Speaker 3>we're set for a decade of higher inflation. Well, the

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<v Speaker 3>structure of the economy's changed. You know, back in the seventies,

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<v Speaker 3>you had much more union power, people had wage and dexation,

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<v Speaker 3>and so when you had those inflationary shocks, it immediately fed.

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<v Speaker 3>It caused an upward wage price spiral. You don't have

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<v Speaker 3>that today, and so you know again, I think we

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<v Speaker 3>economists have to be mindful of how the underlying structure

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<v Speaker 3>of the economy is changing. It's always good to look

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<v Speaker 3>back at history. You can get lessons from history, but

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<v Speaker 3>you have to be mindful how the economy has evolved

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<v Speaker 3>over time. And the US economy, I mean, it's evolution

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<v Speaker 3>is it's glacial, but it can It's happening all the time.

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<v Speaker 1>Jie Brayceon and Wells Fargo, and I would editorialized there

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<v Speaker 1>having lived a fair amount of that is the great,

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<v Speaker 1>great certitude of the cockiness, if you will, of so

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<v Speaker 1>much punditry on Wall Street leads you after you're wrong

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<v Speaker 1>the first time and second time a third time, to

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<v Speaker 1>an inbred humility. You hear that from doctor Bryson, and

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<v Speaker 1>I hope from a huge part of the guests that

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<v Speaker 1>we have on surveillance. One of the great, great humbling

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<v Speaker 1>experiments was the revolution of technology and innovation in petroleum products.

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<v Speaker 1>Nobody saw that coming, and it was something when fracking

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<v Speaker 1>showed up. We're out across the nation every morning. Thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much for listening on your commute and on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 1>Subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts and on Apple podcasts, Spotify, Amazon

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<v Speaker 1>as well and on YouTube podcasts. It's a single best idea.