1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea, and 2 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: we say good morning to all of you. It's been 3 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: a fabulous week endless strong conversations. Hard to pick two 4 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:25,959 Speaker 1: each day. John Stolfus on Fire today, we got in 5 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: a series of people who said courage in early April, 6 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,840 Speaker 1: and they've looked to be right. John Stolphus leading away 7 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: there with aggressive calls and the Standard and Poors five 8 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: hundred and what John Stolfus emphasized to us is the 9 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: private investor has changed. They've gone from cocktail chat to 10 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 1: their retirement study. 11 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 2: The private investor today is investing very differently from the 12 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 2: way they did when I got into this business forty 13 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: two years ago. Forty two years ago, private investors were 14 00:00:55,600 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 2: called the retail investor, and it was really cocktail party 15 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,399 Speaker 2: stocks for most people. Some people did invest seriously for 16 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 2: their for my ant, for example, was a serious investors. 17 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 2: That's where I come from, you know. But when we 18 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 2: look at the environment today, it's you've got the private 19 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 2: investors looking towards their retirement or in retirement. 20 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:23,479 Speaker 3: Is can say for the boomers, my. 21 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 2: Gosh, we've got longevity here. You've got to prepare for it. 22 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 1: John Stolf is there of op go joining us on 23 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: a path to retirement. Next week, after many years of 24 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: commitment to Wells Fargo, Jay Brison will retire. We had 25 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 1: a good conversation where they had a global economics Jay 26 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 1: Brison on a changing America. 27 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 3: The quality of the data I think has always been 28 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 3: pretty good. I don't think that's the big change. I 29 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 3: think the big change over the last three or four 30 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 3: decades it's just the structure, the overall structure of the economy. 31 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 3: I was talking to somebody about this yesterday and we 32 00:01:56,840 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 3: were talking about you know, if you go back to 33 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 3: the oil shocks of the nineteen seventies, right, if you 34 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 3: were an economist in nineteen seventy five and you were 35 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 3: Rip van Winkle and you went asleep for the next 36 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 3: you know, thirty years or something like that, and you 37 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 3: see you saw the inflation of say twenty twenty two, 38 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 3: you would look at that and you say, oh my god, 39 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 3: we're set for a decade of higher inflation. Well, the 40 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 3: structure of the economy's changed. You know, back in the seventies, 41 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 3: you had much more union power, people had wage and dexation, 42 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 3: and so when you had those inflationary shocks, it immediately fed. 43 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 3: It caused an upward wage price spiral. You don't have 44 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 3: that today, and so you know again, I think we 45 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 3: economists have to be mindful of how the underlying structure 46 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 3: of the economy is changing. It's always good to look 47 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 3: back at history. You can get lessons from history, but 48 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 3: you have to be mindful how the economy has evolved 49 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 3: over time. And the US economy, I mean, it's evolution 50 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 3: is it's glacial, but it can It's happening all the time. 51 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: Jie Brayceon and Wells Fargo, and I would editorialized there 52 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 1: having lived a fair amount of that is the great, 53 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: great certitude of the cockiness, if you will, of so 54 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 1: much punditry on Wall Street leads you after you're wrong 55 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 1: the first time and second time a third time, to 56 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 1: an inbred humility. You hear that from doctor Bryson, and 57 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: I hope from a huge part of the guests that 58 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: we have on surveillance. One of the great, great humbling 59 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: experiments was the revolution of technology and innovation in petroleum products. 60 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: Nobody saw that coming, and it was something when fracking 61 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 1: showed up. We're out across the nation every morning. Thank 62 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: you so much for listening on your commute and on YouTube. 63 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts and on Apple podcasts, Spotify, Amazon 64 00:03:49,840 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: as well and on YouTube podcasts. It's a single best idea.