WEBVTT - Miller Tabak's Maley: Plan For Post-Election Market Move(Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com, the Radio plus Global lapp and on your radio.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Doomberg World Headquarters.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Katherine Cowdery. Financial shares are leading the market higher

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<v Speaker 1>today as worries over the help of European banks ease,

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<v Speaker 1>and report said Deutsche Bank is nearing a less expensive

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<v Speaker 1>settlement with US regulators and investors had feared. Financial shares

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<v Speaker 1>are up the most in eight weeks. The SMP five

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<v Speaker 1>Founders is on the verge of erasing a second straight

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<v Speaker 1>monthly loss, helped by today's gains. We check the markets

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<v Speaker 1>every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. Del Industrial Average

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<v Speaker 1>is up two hundred eight points, a gain of one

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<v Speaker 1>point one percent, trading at eighteen thousand, three hundred fifty one.

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<v Speaker 1>SMP five Foundered up twenty two points to gain of

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<v Speaker 1>one percent, trading at seventy three. NASTAC higher by fifty

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<v Speaker 1>three points or one percent at fifty three twenty two.

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<v Speaker 1>West Texas intermediate crude oil of twenty cents a barrel,

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<v Speaker 1>four tens of a percent to forty eight oh three

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<v Speaker 1>spot gold down five dollars fifty cents announced for thirty

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<v Speaker 1>and the tenure treasury down twelve thirty seconds with the

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<v Speaker 1>yield of one point six zero percent. And that's a

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg business flash. Thank you very much, Catherine Cowdery. Or

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<v Speaker 1>at it's time now if the e t F report.

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<v Speaker 1>It is brought to you by Instinct Options from Bank

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<v Speaker 1>of America, Merrill Lynch capture liquidity in the US equity

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<v Speaker 1>and index options trading by unleashing the in depth market

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<v Speaker 1>insights and adaptive al goo strategies of Instinct options. That's

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<v Speaker 1>the power of global connections. Let's go to Catherine Calgary

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<v Speaker 1>for our Exchange Traded Funds report. OPEC's decision to cut

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<v Speaker 1>production is reverberating throughout the energy industry and will affect

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<v Speaker 1>a t s that focus on master limited partnerships or

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<v Speaker 1>m LPs. That's the word from Jeremy Goff, director of

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<v Speaker 1>Strategic Ventures for Tortoise Capital Advisors. It will reduce global

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<v Speaker 1>oil supplies by about a million barrels a day. That'll

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<v Speaker 1>somebody is going to have to fill that void. I

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<v Speaker 1>think North American assets are going to have to produce

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<v Speaker 1>oil in order to fill that void. And so that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to have a benefit across the energy value chain,

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<v Speaker 1>so these assets will definitely be positively impacted. Goff's firm

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<v Speaker 1>offers a Tortoise North American Pipeline Fund tak her t

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<v Speaker 1>P y P, which contains some MLPs. There are currently

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<v Speaker 1>more than thirty e t s in that category, and

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<v Speaker 1>Goff anticipates for their interest and growth. I would say

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<v Speaker 1>it's always primarily a focus for e t s because

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<v Speaker 1>it is such a big yield provider. Goff says these

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<v Speaker 1>MLP e t s can fit into a portfolio in

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<v Speaker 1>a number of ways, as an allocation to a real

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<v Speaker 1>asset or as yield producers. He emphasizes the importance of

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<v Speaker 1>understanding the underlying index and the funds tax implications. That's

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<v Speaker 1>your Bloomberg ETF report. I'm Katherine Cowlery. This is taking

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<v Speaker 1>stock with pim Box and Kathleen Hays on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>The stock market and the presidential election cycle. Here to

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<v Speaker 1>tell us more, Matt Maine. He is managing director and

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<v Speaker 1>equity strategist at Miller Tabak and Company. Joining us from

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<v Speaker 1>Boston home to Bloomberg twelve hundred. Are right, Matt Maylie,

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<v Speaker 1>tell us about your history work well, it's funny. I

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<v Speaker 1>initially wanted to look at what happens after a two

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<v Speaker 1>term presidency comes to an end, because the last two

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<v Speaker 1>times had happened there was a dramatic move in the market.

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<v Speaker 1>But as I went back all I went back all

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<v Speaker 1>back to World War Two, almost seventy years and a

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<v Speaker 1>show that it didn't matter how many terms right there

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<v Speaker 1>any time there was a change in the person, uh

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<v Speaker 1>it rose to the to the presidency through an election.

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<v Speaker 1>I did not count those times when uh there was

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<v Speaker 1>a death or or a resignation because those policies kind

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<v Speaker 1>of remain the same. But when a new person stepped in,

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<v Speaker 1>there's been a dramatic move in the stock market that

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<v Speaker 1>began right after the election. Every single time, about two

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<v Speaker 1>thirds of the time it's been down, but a third

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<v Speaker 1>of the time it's been up. So it's it's hard

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<v Speaker 1>to say exactly which way we'll go, but people have

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<v Speaker 1>to be prepared, I believe, uh, and start thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>in advance, uh the odds that we will break out

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<v Speaker 1>of this range and be prepared for either eventuality. So

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<v Speaker 1>how could you profit from having this information that you

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<v Speaker 1>know that there's going to be a surge or a

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<v Speaker 1>move in one direction or the other, but you don't

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<v Speaker 1>know which direction. Well, I think number one is really

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be key in your planning. Now, there

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<v Speaker 1>are some things you can you know, you know, buy

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<v Speaker 1>you try to invest in a pick up of volatility,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it be you know, the VIX and things like that. However,

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<v Speaker 1>I think more importantly it's just a situation where you

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<v Speaker 1>want to sit back and decide, you know, have a

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<v Speaker 1>plan in advance. Now, don't you know most people go

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<v Speaker 1>to their financial advisor in December or January to talk about,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the upcoming year. I say do it now,

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<v Speaker 1>because if we do, once you see the market moving,

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<v Speaker 1>if you have a plan for each eventuality, you're not

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<v Speaker 1>going to panic and sell everything if the market starts

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<v Speaker 1>to go down, and you're also not going to even

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<v Speaker 1>if the market goes up. People tend to just, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>well let's buy the you know, the hottest thing, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's not always the best move. So if you have

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<v Speaker 1>a base plan in advance, you can kind of sit

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<v Speaker 1>back and decide you want what you want to do

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<v Speaker 1>once you see the market making making its move. Now

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<v Speaker 1>again I will say this, I'm not doing this for

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<v Speaker 1>self serving purposes. Motorita back that really we really talked

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<v Speaker 1>to institutional investors, not individuals. So, uh, my advice is

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<v Speaker 1>to go see a financial advisor. And I mean that

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<v Speaker 1>in a in a non a self promoting way. I

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<v Speaker 1>guess at my point, no, we I I think I

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<v Speaker 1>think we take that, Matt and and I just want you,

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<v Speaker 1>if you can, to step after just a moment, because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, if you take a look at the money

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<v Speaker 1>that is made in any asset class and you chart it,

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<v Speaker 1>if you put it together and you draw a nice line,

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<v Speaker 1>and you ask people where should you have purchased this asset,

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<v Speaker 1>it's usually at the very bottom. It's at the very

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<v Speaker 1>valley of the line. And as a result, you look

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<v Speaker 1>at what the news was around those events that brought

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<v Speaker 1>it to that conclusion, and you finds a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>negativity that maybe you should buy into exactly. I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's funny because the last why I say that people

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<v Speaker 1>when things turn around, Uh, people tend to chase the winners,

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<v Speaker 1>but they're usually coming to an end of their of

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<v Speaker 1>their cycle. The one thing to know too is, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>what we saw. We had a big sell off that

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<v Speaker 1>began right literally on election day when Obama was elected

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<v Speaker 1>president and it sold off over. However, that March provided

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<v Speaker 1>one of the best flying opportunities of all time. UH.

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<v Speaker 1>So again investors need to be nimble and have their

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<v Speaker 1>plans set up in advance. But I totally agree. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>right now and with the market valuations high and the

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<v Speaker 1>markets near its all time high, uh, the odds that

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<v Speaker 1>this move will be to the downside, but you want

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<v Speaker 1>to be prepared to uh, you know, scoop up. And

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<v Speaker 1>I guess another important point to make is it unlike

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<v Speaker 1>the big moves we've had recently in the last year too,

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<v Speaker 1>when we've had ten to fifteen percent moves, these post

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<v Speaker 1>election moves usually last at least nine ten months or

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<v Speaker 1>even a year year and a half. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>whatever we get, it's going to be a long a

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<v Speaker 1>longer process than we've seen in the past, So we

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<v Speaker 1>want to be prepared for into advance. So with the VIX,

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<v Speaker 1>the volatility index right now down eight and a half percent,

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<v Speaker 1>two days down one point one seven, trading at twelve

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<v Speaker 1>point eight five, would you concur that it is uh

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<v Speaker 1>at a level that indicates complacency. Yes, I definitely think so.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you look at what's going on with with

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<v Speaker 1>with Deutsche Bank. And I'm sure you guys have been

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<v Speaker 1>talking about all day long, and and I've been hearing

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<v Speaker 1>you talk about it when I can be when I've

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<v Speaker 1>been able to listen in. And the thing is is

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<v Speaker 1>that I don't think Deutsche Bank has got to go

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<v Speaker 1>under Stocker go the way of leaving brothers. However, um,

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<v Speaker 1>look at what's happened the markets. That stock is down

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<v Speaker 1>over and the stock markets done nothing that that we

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<v Speaker 1>are way too complacent because people kind of think that, well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not going to go out of business, so therefore

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<v Speaker 1>everything's fine. Deutsche Bank still has issues. I mean the

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<v Speaker 1>whole banking I don't want to say the whole banking system,

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<v Speaker 1>but banks in general, with these you know, low ultra

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<v Speaker 1>low registrates, negative interest rates, zero indust rates, it's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be hard for them to make money. And so therefore,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the markets, the complacency in the marketplace is

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<v Speaker 1>higher than most people realize because and even in our

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<v Speaker 1>own stocks in the US, they have badly lie the

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<v Speaker 1>S and P. And I think it shows that maybe

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<v Speaker 1>people are a little too complacent with the way the

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<v Speaker 1>banking system. We've gotten too much into this situation where,

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<v Speaker 1>oh my gosh, if it's gonna be negative, it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be a disaster. Well, that doesn't always happen. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just it has. It has happened the last two times

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<v Speaker 1>for us, but usually it doesn't. And my point is

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<v Speaker 1>that that the chances of the of this next move

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<v Speaker 1>being a down tent or is not out of the question.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not the end of the world, and let's take

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<v Speaker 1>advantage of it. But just because it's not going to

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<v Speaker 1>be two thousand eight all over again, doesn't mean it

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<v Speaker 1>still can't be a painful one. This idea of taking

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<v Speaker 1>advantage of a market move. When someone sells there's another

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<v Speaker 1>buyer that may step in, you've got to have that

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<v Speaker 1>ready cash in order to make that kind of trade exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's just the people get too too much

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<v Speaker 1>caught up in what's going on at the moment. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>everybody kind of says, don't panic, don't panic on the

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<v Speaker 1>way down, but people can panic on the way up too.

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<v Speaker 1>So when you've got that plan in advantage, you sit

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<v Speaker 1>down and talk to your financial advisor. Have you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you've you've got your your your your plan. You've always

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<v Speaker 1>had a plan set up, Do you want to tweak it?

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<v Speaker 1>How do you want to take advantage of it? But

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<v Speaker 1>when you have the plan at least some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>a base plan and based in both, there you know

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<v Speaker 1>two plans for both eventuality and so that when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to it, you can sit back and make an

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<v Speaker 1>intelligent one and not one where you're where you're panicked

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<v Speaker 1>in either direction. Do you believe that institutional investors panic

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<v Speaker 1>or are they just so powerful that they're able to

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<v Speaker 1>battle against each other and whip saw the market in

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<v Speaker 1>a way that we perhaps have not seen before. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's certainly the case. And when the one thing is

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<v Speaker 1>that for for panic for them, um is they tend

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<v Speaker 1>to be because because they're in the markets every single

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<v Speaker 1>day and looking at them, looking individual companies, looking at

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<v Speaker 1>trends for individual industries. So so the panic isn't not

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<v Speaker 1>the so of situation. But what they do have to

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<v Speaker 1>deal with sometimes is on the downside is forced selling,

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<v Speaker 1>where it doesn't matter what they think, you know that

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<v Speaker 1>even though they know things are are are are overdone

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<v Speaker 1>to the downside, that there are assets that have value exactly,

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<v Speaker 1>but they have to sell because they're getting the mutual

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<v Speaker 1>from redeptions or a margin call because they've got too

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<v Speaker 1>much leverage. But the other thing happens to the in

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<v Speaker 1>the other direction, where sometimes they get what I call

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<v Speaker 1>performance fear or the markets going up. And I got,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, especially at the end of the year, when

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<v Speaker 1>the market's going up. At the end of the year,

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<v Speaker 1>you might think the world's gonna end next year, but

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<v Speaker 1>you still got to be in there in December, because

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<v Speaker 1>you all your measure two is the end two towards

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the year. So now the institutions are

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<v Speaker 1>definitely a different animal, but they can still have these

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<v Speaker 1>fear greed situations crop prop up for them. Matt, just

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<v Speaker 1>really briefly, because we're going to the clothes here. For

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<v Speaker 1>the quarter, for the month, s and P five hundred

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<v Speaker 1>is up more than twenty two points, the Dow is

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<v Speaker 1>up more than a hundred and seventy eight points. Give

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<v Speaker 1>me about ten seconds. What do you think of this?

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's a short squeeze on shadow that Deutsche

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<v Speaker 1>Bank is going to be fine. I think it will

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<v Speaker 1>take a little bit longer for it to play out,

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<v Speaker 1>so I would not be chasing this market right here.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to thank you very much as always Matt Mainlee,

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<v Speaker 1>equity strategist mill Our take Back, joining us from Boston

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<v Speaker 1>home to Bloomberg Dred. This is taking Stock. I'm pim Fox.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna take you through to the close on Wall Street. Next,

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<v Speaker 1>this is Bloomberg. Yeah,