1 00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh, Rio to Washington, 2 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:13,400 Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve, unders to San Francisco, 3 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine to the country suis Exam Channel one ninety 4 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: and around the globe. The Bloomberg Radio bus happened. Bloomberg 5 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 1: dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning. It is 6 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: eight thirty on Wall Street. I Michael McKee along with 7 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: Tom Keane Economic Indicators brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. 8 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,199 Speaker 1: When it's time to change the conversation, talk with a 9 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: broker dealer r I A that's ready to listen to 10 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 1: eight six six four six two. Visit Commonwealth dot com 11 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 1: to learn more. You're you're very anxious. Do we need 12 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: our own p M I? Everyone else has the surveillance 13 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 1: p M I surveillance p M I. What you buy 14 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: a good idea? I think so well. We have a 15 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: U S p m I. We call it the Institute 16 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 1: for Supplying Management Manufacturing Index. It's due out at ten 17 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: am this morning. Uh A later released this morning for 18 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: you on the Bloomberg Advantage. Fifty point three is the forecast. 19 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: Fifty point eight was last month. Help me here. That's 20 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 1: the diffusion index fifty point zero center tendency. Mike does 21 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,199 Speaker 1: forty nine point nine signal the end of the world. 22 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 1: Uh No, it's generally written, of course that UM anything 23 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: below fifty indicates contraction. That's actually not true statistically, it's 24 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: more like forty two. Yes, thank you. I knew what 25 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 1: I knew. Valmer, I knew where Farmer? Are you wearing 26 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 1: your Sydney Crosby jersey again? I can't believe. Oh, you're 27 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 1: making lots of enemies with that. Uh. And we also 28 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:42,479 Speaker 1: got construction spending ten o'clock this morning. This afternoon, at 29 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 1: two pm, the Federal Reserve releases its a beige book, 30 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: and today is auto sales Day. We are keeping an 31 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: eye on the filmmakers and waiting for them to release 32 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: their results. So far, we have not heard from the 33 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: Big Three. The forecast is or a seventeen point three 34 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: million rate uh in the words UM index, and that 35 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: would be about the same as Kevin Tynan scheduled to 36 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: be with us in the next hour. We'll talk about that. 37 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 1: It has been It is p m I Day around 38 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 1: the world. Everybody has been reporting their manufacturing numbers, and 39 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: I think we use the economic term my UH to 40 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: describe the results we've been getting. UH. William Lee, the 41 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: head of North American Economics for City Research. UH is 42 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: one of the founders of the Meth School of p 43 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 1: m I reporting. Are we gonna get anything to write 44 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 1: home about? I mean, if you look, uh real at 45 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 1: the at the regional p m I or federals equivalence 46 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,079 Speaker 1: around the country, it kind of points to not such 47 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 1: a good month here in the US. Absolutely. In fact, Mike, 48 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned where where the pm I have 49 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 1: to be order to release show some contraction and in 50 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: the in the low forties, and we're coming out with 51 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:07,119 Speaker 1: the number that says we would expect forty nine point four, 52 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: and so we have a four handle literally below fifty uh. 53 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: And it's one of these who cares? I mean, you know, 54 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 1: I think people make a big deal of p m 55 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: I around the world because in some countries where manufacturing 56 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: is a big deal, especially in the emerging markets, it's 57 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: a very important number because the manufacturer is a big 58 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: deal in the economy. In the US, manufacturer is not 59 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 1: that big a deal, um now. And and you know 60 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: it's it's eight under ten percent of GDP and employment um. 61 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: But the reason why I think manufacturing has become such 62 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: a big deal is because the nature of the recovery 63 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: we've had so far as that most of the job 64 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: growth has been in these lower weight sectors like retail, hospitality, 65 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: and healthcare that pay under seven dollars a week on average. 66 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: But manufacturing is one of these above average manufacturers pay 67 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: pay sectors. And so when you lose the job there, 68 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: you need, you know, more like one than a half 69 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: the two jobs to make up for it. That's why 70 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: it's important, because it helps to boost the consumption that 71 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: we being so badly to keep the recovery going. And 72 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: and so for me, I look at the pm MY 73 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: numbers to say, show me the employment numbers first, because 74 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: manufacturing p m I is I think of one of 75 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 1: these soft numbers as far as I'm concerned in the 76 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 1: UN but a very important number in place by China 77 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: where you don't have much data that to go on. 78 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: And and that's one of the harder of the data 79 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:25,719 Speaker 1: you've got. Well, you're an economists, so you look at 80 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: the number and you figure out the statistical relationship between 81 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: that number and the US economy's growth rate. People sitting 82 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 1: at trading guests look at a four handle and think, 83 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 1: oh my god, we're all gonna die. Are you kidding me? 84 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: I mean, why, why do you think? I put out 85 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 1: a notice yesterday saying, hey are once we got Chicago 86 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 1: and we saw that the regional pomis becoming, and we 87 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 1: we immediately told our training colleagues state be prepared for 88 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: a poor handle. So, because these guys are trading on 89 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: on DESKIML points, regardless of whether or not they mean 90 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: anything for the economy, they mean something for other people trading, 91 00:04:57,200 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: and that means they've got to beat out the other 92 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: guy who's training them. So it's but well, thank you. 93 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 1: I was going to shout out to Evan salt As 94 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: a Princeton who I think he passed Mike. He did 95 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,679 Speaker 1: pretty good and getting they dragged him out of Princeton 96 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: this week in economics, and I told him Billy to 97 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: do sun spots like William Stanley Jevons. I mean, that's 98 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: what every good economists needs to do, is consider sun spots. 99 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: Does any of this correlate to g d P. Does 100 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: a p M I frenzy actually assist you or Villain 101 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 1: Bowder in figuring out g d P because you know, 102 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 1: I I magnifact train is too small to matter that much, 103 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: but it is big enough so that if I see 104 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,680 Speaker 1: job losses there, it will matter because I'm gonna have 105 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 1: to find a lot of job growth in Okay, Well 106 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: you said that. Uh we got a minute here. Um, 107 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: it matters a lot of traitors. Who are you know 108 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: going to panic if we get a four handle? But 109 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 1: does it matter to Jennet Yellen? Uh? That's the key. 110 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 1: That's the key, And I'm glad you guys brought up 111 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: because right now, all the data up to this week 112 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: have been showing really optimistic, really rosy scenario right but 113 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 1: now we suddenly start to get some not so rosy scenarios. 114 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,719 Speaker 1: And Janet Yelling is yet to tell us where she stands, 115 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 1: because if she had taken the same mood a fact 116 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 1: that she took an October, she would have said at 117 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: the next meeting, we're ready to move, the members are 118 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 1: ready to move. All we saw in the minutes it 119 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 1: was of the coded message that said we have a 120 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 1: division within the FOBC and I can't handle the division 121 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 1: because I don't even have enough of the consensus to 122 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: put that message that was in the minutes into the statement, 123 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 1: so we had to wait three weeks for us to 124 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: find out by the way, most participants wanted to move. 125 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 1: And what we see now is most participants were the 126 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: regional presidents. They want to move, but we have yet 127 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: to hear from the governor's particularly brainer Tarrillo Fisher right, 128 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 1: uh and and and that to me is the core 129 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 1: of it. Janet yelling herself will grab any use to 130 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 1: keep things loose and right out, she doesn't have the 131 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,600 Speaker 1: votes on the board. Let's come back with William Lee 132 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: of City Group. He's got some very good research here, 133 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: some themes to talk about on the American economy, the 134 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 1: yen one oh nine six, stability and a stronger yen. 135 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: This morning, time to check in now with Michael Barr 136 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: and get the latest world in national highlights. Michael, Mike, Tom, 137 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: thank you very much. Have crews found the all important 138 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 1: black boxes from a doomed egypt airplane. A French Navy 139 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 1: ship picked up signals that may be coming from one 140 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: of the flight recorders on egypt Air flight eight oh four, 141 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: which crashed into the Mediterranean last month. Egypt's Ministry of 142 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: Civil Aviation says once located a ship from Deep Ocean 143 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: Search will join the search team within a week to 144 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 1: retrieve the boxes. The RBS are crash, killing all sixty 145 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: six people on board. There's new guidance from the Navy 146 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 1: for sailors and their families on how to protect themselves 147 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: from the Zekea virus. Bloomberg Zamy Morris has more from 148 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: our Washington bureau. The Navy is updated its information in 149 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: connection with the advice from the Centers for Disease Control 150 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 1: and Prevention, with guidance for installation commanders on how to 151 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 1: work with local officials to prevent mosquito infestations on bases 152 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: and in base housing. The outbreak is so far contained 153 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: at the Pacific Islands, Caribbean, throughout Central America and South America, 154 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: putting Navy and Marine Corps personnel there at risk. Amy Morris, 155 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio Washington, President of MAMA will travel to Elkhurrent, 156 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 1: Indiana today to tell out the city's resurgence and the 157 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: motor home industry. Global News twenty four hours a day, 158 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:35,559 Speaker 1: powered by our twenty four hundred journalists more than a 159 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: d fifty news bureaus around the world. I'm Michael Barr, 160 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,319 Speaker 1: Mike tom Thank, you, Michael. Time now for the land 161 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: Rover Parsippany Bloomberg NBC Sports Update with John Thanks, Mike. 162 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 1: Is looking like a Mets victory that led for nothing 163 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: in the sixth in against the White Sox team they 164 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: lost seven or ow they had Stephen Mats on the 165 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: mound going from eighth straight win, but Todd Fraser homer 166 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: of the sixthiting off Mats is sixteenth the year, and 167 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,680 Speaker 1: then in the eight there's a high flive all leftists 168 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: tag going back to the track to the wall. It's 169 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 1: gone salad. You notice hit his third home run. The 170 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: White Sox now lead at five to four, six four 171 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 1: White Sox Radio the call Han Solo Robos took the loss. 172 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: He came in after a scoreless sitting. The released by 173 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,679 Speaker 1: Noah Synder Guard pitched out of the pen since his 174 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:18,839 Speaker 1: start was cut short the other day when he got tossed. 175 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 1: Day game today at City Field. David right to miss 176 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: a few more games, but not going on the disabled list, 177 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 1: not now anyway. Right, it's got a neck injury. That's 178 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 1: two back of Washington to be Philadelphia five to one. 179 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: The Yankees five losses and seven games have fallen seven 180 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: a half back of the Red Sox. Yanks followed the 181 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: four two loss, losing four one at Toronto c c 182 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: Sbathia pitched well but suffered the loss when the normally 183 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: reliable Dellan Batance has replaced him the seventh. Then he 184 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:44,839 Speaker 1: gave up a go ahead hit to Kevin Pollar a 185 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 1: two run single to Darwin Barney Yankee bats again extremely quiet. 186 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 1: Yanks say Dustin actually done for the year. Torn labor Boston. Meanwhile, 187 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:55,079 Speaker 1: one six to at Baltimore Mookie Betts three home runs. 188 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: French Open today, Novack Djokovica winner Serena Williams has one 189 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: Venus Williams lost with Bloomberg. NBC Sports Update, John, thanks 190 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 1: so much features negative seven features negative sixty six. We 191 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: need to tell you the yields are in to four 192 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 1: digits A tenure one point eight one eight zero the 193 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 1: two year within eighties six handle point eight six percent 194 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:20,439 Speaker 1: think gets my attention. Germany yields lower as well. A 195 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 1: negative point five one seven on the German two years 196 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: shows really globally yields lower in prices higher a sogginess 197 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:32,319 Speaker 1: over the last eighteen hours Gold twelve nineteen, make A 198 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 1: twelve twenty and the ales and really front and center today. 199 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:37,719 Speaker 1: Yen week, it's not near a one oh eight. Excuse me, 200 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: Yen strength one oh nine five one point four eight 201 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:48,839 Speaker 1: big figures, Stronger Yen. This morning, Tom keane and Michael 202 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 1: McKee were with William Lee of City Group on America's economy, 203 00:10:52,720 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: the Jobs Report Friday, Bloomberg Surveillance, the Sports Report brought 204 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 1: to you by land Over Partify. If it's in your 205 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: nature to cast off the every day and seek adventure, 206 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 1: the Discovery Sport was built to help your search. Visit 207 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: Landover Partifity dot com or fine four w D Landrover 208 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:19,719 Speaker 1: above and BA Global Business News twenty four hours a day. 209 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 1: If Bloomberg dot Com, the Radio plus Mobile Act and 210 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 1: on your radio, this is a Bloomberg Business flash and 211 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 1: I'm terror at Moscow. There's updates brought to you by 212 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 1: American Arbitration Association, International Trade or a business dispute Resolve 213 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: Faster with the International Center for Dispute Resolution, the leader 214 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:40,559 Speaker 1: in alternative dispute resolution around the world. I c d 215 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: R dot org US DOT Index futures are lower this 216 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 1: morning after b S and P five hundred captains the 217 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:50,959 Speaker 1: longest monthly rally since this comes a bit evidence of 218 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 1: sluggish growth global growth this morning. Investors are meanwhile awaiting 219 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 1: a report on manufacturing activity in the world's biggest economy. 220 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 1: And we checked the markets every fifteen minutes about the 221 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: trading day. On Bloomberg SNP e Mani futures down seven points, 222 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 1: Dow e Many futures down sixties seven and as doc 223 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: Emuny futures are down twelve. The decks in Germany's down 224 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: eight tenths per cent. Ten, Your treasury up eight thirty seconds, 225 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 1: the yield one point eight one percent yield on the 226 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 1: two year point eight six percent. Nine Max screwed oil 227 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: down one point three percent or sixty three cents to 228 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,559 Speaker 1: forty eight forty seven of barrel comes Gold up a 229 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 1: tenth of a percent or a dollar twenty to twelve 230 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 1: eighteen seventy an ounce the euro and dollar eleven eighty 231 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 1: the n one oh nine point two six. Michael Corps 232 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 1: holdings up more than seven percent in early trading at 233 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: reported fourth quarter earnings that beat analysts estimates after new 234 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 1: products helped draw customers to its stores, and Salesforce dot Com, 235 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 1: which sells business productivity software, agreed to buy demand where 236 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: a provider of cloud commerce services, and a deal worth 237 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 1: about two point eight billion dollars. Demand Wear is up 238 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: fifty six percent this morning. That's a Bloomberg business Flash, 239 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Karen, thank you so much. It is 240 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: on Wall Street. Of following is from Bloomberg View, opinions 241 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 1: and commentary from Bloomberg columnists. I'm Megan mccartell, a columnist 242 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg View. A few weeks ago, a judge ruled 243 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: against the administration in the matter of the cost sharing 244 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 1: subsidies for Obamacare. These aren't the subsidies that reduced premiums 245 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 1: for everyone below a certain income level. It's another set 246 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: of subsidies, this one aimed at people earning less than 247 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: two dromi percent on the poverty line, which keeps their 248 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 1: out of pocket expenses lower as long as they buy 249 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 1: a qualifying Silver plan. The House of Representatives did not 250 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 1: appropriate money for the paying of these subsidies, and when 251 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 1: the administration went ahead and gave insurers the money anyway, 252 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: the House sued. Now it appears Republicans and the judge 253 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: aren't the only folks who think that the administration's actions 254 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: are illegal. Report in the New York Times this weekend 255 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 1: says the I R S told the administration they had 256 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 1: no legal authority to spend the money. Beginning in I 257 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,199 Speaker 1: R S agent testified he his supervisor began combing through 258 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 1: the law looking for readings that might support the administration's plan. 259 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: According to The Times, they came out empty. Obama is 260 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:57,599 Speaker 1: hardly the first president to rely on expansive readings of 261 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: laws to get increase in executive power. But this goes 262 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: a little beyond expansive readings. And if the court's rule, 263 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 1: as they may well, that the legislature has no power 264 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:07,599 Speaker 1: to sue to stop it, and Americans are left with 265 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: an unpalatable question, what's the point of having laws at 266 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,079 Speaker 1: all if the powers that be can't be compelled to 267 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 1: follow them. I'm Megan mccartell. For more of you, Please 268 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: get a Bloomberg View dot com or view go on 269 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg View and Bloomberg 270 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 1: View commentary can be here to hourly weekdays on Bloomberg Radio. 271 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: We're through the ringing. William Lee of City Group working 272 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 1: with Villain Boulder, a cautious view on the global economy, 273 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: more optimism on what's going on in the US. Billy Uh, 274 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: you lead your paragraph of your researcher note off on 275 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: something that, without question gets us a lot of mail. 276 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: Maybe not our record mail, but it's right up there 277 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: with gold. And that is the wage in America. You 278 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 1: talk about average early earnings, you talk about your preferred 279 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 1: e c. I. I believe there's twelve other ways to 280 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 1: measure wage growth. Do we have wage growth? The vast 281 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: majority of our listeners say maybe not. The place I 282 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: found acceleration right way, the growth in the pace of 283 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 1: increase in wages was in the near minimum wage fIF 284 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 1: type jobs. Outside of that category, maybe you can find 285 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 1: something into specialized construction skills like plumbers, framers, and roofers. 286 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 1: But outside But but the rest of the economy is 287 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: really having very very little wage inflation um and and 288 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 1: and and certainly no acceleration wages, which is what the 289 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: FT is we're looking for because we don't want relative 290 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 1: wage changes to move Montree policy, because relative weight changes 291 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: means we have to shuffle people from one seite to 292 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 1: another because there are shortages there. What the FET is 293 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: looking for is a sustained cost increase that leads to 294 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: companies pushing up prices and that we haven't seen Michael. 295 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: I mean, that's beautifully sad. And Michael, that's really the 296 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 1: heart of it, isn't it. Well, the question is does 297 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 1: that start to change. The feed is of the view 298 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 1: that we are moving in that direction, that we're going 299 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: to see more wage gains for a broader selection of people. 300 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: And that's key, Mike. The FETE is not of the view. 301 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: The fit the view. The view at the FED is split. 302 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 1: The hawks are saying, we are seeing signs that the 303 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: tightness in the labor market will lead to that at 304 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 1: some point, really soon. The doves are saying, show me, 305 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 1: show me that we actually have the wage increases and 306 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: price increases before we start to move, because so far 307 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 1: we've been bush whacked all along the way. I don't 308 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: mean the jump in here, but I think this is 309 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: an important distinction. What you just said is neither of 310 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: them can see it right exactly. And and and the 311 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: key is we've the doves have lost faith in the 312 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: Phillips curve. Now, as you know, Tom, the Philis curve 313 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: has been declared dead since I was in graduate school, 314 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 1: and that was many, many decades ago. But now the 315 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: nature of the deadness of the philis curve is that 316 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: the scope is so shallow. In other words, it takes 317 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: a lot of change in slack to generate a little 318 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: bit of wage inflation or a little bit of price inflation. 319 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: And and there is the mystery where is the slack? 320 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 1: How much slack is there? And and and Jenny Yellen says, 321 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: is a lot of slack because we don't see the 322 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 1: wage increases. We don't even see signs of it across 323 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 1: the board. We only see pockets of it, which is 324 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 1: where shortages are. And and that's the debate within the 325 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 1: phone right now, Well, what's your view of what they're 326 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 1: gonna do in the next couple of months. I find 327 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:10,640 Speaker 1: this fascinating. Uh, Friday, we had strong retail sales. Yesterday, 328 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 1: we had strong personal income and spending numbers, and a 329 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 1: sign that inflation was rising in the PC numbers, And 330 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 1: the probability of a rate increase in June or July 331 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: has gone below Nothing has happened, But the market is 332 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 1: now pricing out the Fed, no kidding, and and and 333 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 1: and because the markets know they can push the feed around. 334 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 1: The big event, of course, is gonna be this Friday, 335 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 1: what will the employment numbers be? Because both sides are 336 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,920 Speaker 1: looking for evidence to shore up their arguments. A number 337 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: like one forty, which is what we're calling for, it's 338 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 1: going to cause a lot of people to stirb Now, 339 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: remember there's thirty works on strike, so we have to 340 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 1: add that back in. So our call for one forty 341 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: is really a one sent call, and that to me 342 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: is pretty okay. It's where where business as usual? But 343 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: that's not enough to give the the hawks the smoking gun, 344 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 1: and it's certainly not enough to say we don't have enough, 345 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 1: and so we're gonna have more debate at the next meeting. 346 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 1: We can also have a debate with you or a 347 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,479 Speaker 1: discussion with you that is informed with your work at 348 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: the i m F. You're on the Hong Kong and 349 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 1: Singapore watch, you've done work at the FEED as well. Actually, 350 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: very simple here. If if we don't know where we're going, 351 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: if we really don't observe wage growth, what can be 352 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 1: the proactive policy of a FED or do they just 353 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: wait and wait and wait? And that is a critical 354 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 1: mistake the FED is making, because what we need is leadership. 355 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 1: We need a voltar that says I know that the 356 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:45,439 Speaker 1: keping rates at zero is the wrong thing for an 357 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:49,360 Speaker 1: economy that's coasting about potential, So I gotta start normalizing 358 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 1: rates now. To take that kind of leadership requires a 359 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 1: lot of descent within the committee and putting out the 360 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,119 Speaker 1: love of descent until you start to see that the 361 00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: stuff going your way or clear evidence that is not 362 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 1: going to way. Well, we don't have at the FED 363 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: right now is that kind of strong leadership. Instead, we 364 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,879 Speaker 1: have consensus leadership, And consensus leadership means runner lists, and 365 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 1: in fact not only runner lists, it's being dictated by China, 366 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 1: the markets and everything else that's that should not be 367 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: pushing Monterrey policy. How's that word a tirade? Does Jenny 368 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 1: Yellen have that kind of either courage or or the 369 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 1: FED behind her? Well? From I mean, Cherry Yellen is 370 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 1: with a staffer just like me. She learned the rules 371 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 1: of the game just like me. You don't the first 372 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:35,679 Speaker 1: release of data push you around, and you don't let 373 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,400 Speaker 1: the markets push you around. So far, she's she has 374 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: taken debate of the markets to say I'm not going 375 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 1: to move until I know you guys won't get angry 376 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 1: at me. And and I think that shows the influence 377 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 1: of market based thinking that has infiltrated its way into 378 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,359 Speaker 1: the board stats and the analysis being done to inform 379 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,120 Speaker 1: her of her judgments. And to me, that's dangerous because 380 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: we've lost track of where the macro economy is. We've 381 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: no longer have Montrey policy anchored by macro fundamentals, and 382 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 1: we're allowing the markets and and and the the overreactions 383 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 1: in the markets to push Monterrey policy around. Well does 384 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 1: uh does that stop? Are we going to see a 385 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: big battle between now and June. I think one of 386 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 1: the great characters nest to Cherry Allen is that she 387 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: can pull a consensus together. Um, we have split, we 388 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 1: have a division within the DUC right now. I think 389 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: what she's gonna do at the next meeting is to 390 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 1: say we have a lot of evidence. The hawks have 391 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: been very, very vocal, uh, and I think it's time 392 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:35,639 Speaker 1: to start indicating that we are ready to move. And 393 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,400 Speaker 1: this is a great window of opportunity, because why lose 394 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: it now? In June and July, You've got this great 395 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 1: opportunity to move either one month or the other. Uh. 396 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 1: More likely in July because the market pricing is only 397 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 1: as you mentioned before, for June, so so likely July 398 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: or September. But we gotta somehow indicates in the markets 399 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,360 Speaker 1: we're ready and we're gonna do it, and we're gonna 400 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 1: follow through. That's something that's been missing from every meeting 401 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:02,119 Speaker 1: because data dependency does not has has really been a 402 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: vector not very quickly. Here can they do that in 403 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 1: effect a feeling of a one move rate and then 404 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 1: we'll observe or by definition, does its signal a vector 405 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:19,680 Speaker 1: in a measured approach to produce a credible vector, tom 406 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 1: And they've got to produce a vector because they did 407 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 1: in December and it was not credible, right, they said 408 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 1: the next year and they blew it. Now they've got 409 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 1: to come up with a rationale that says we have 410 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: the following vector and the following contingencies, woul knock us 411 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 1: off the vector and say to those contingencies. Fascinating, Billie, 412 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: thank you so much. With city always always informative, like 413 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: the vector stuff, there's physics talk for what's the direction 414 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: and give us the language wrapped around the direction. I 415 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:55,439 Speaker 1: I don't observe any vector. I deserve complete data dependency, 416 00:21:56,040 --> 00:22:01,199 Speaker 1: where my June is the media. Yeah, but they'll get 417 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 1: the vector established in thirteen. What do you got their 418 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 1: headline out, first automaker to report, Fiat Christler. Many US 419 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: auto sales were up one point one percent. The forecast 420 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 1: was drop of seven tenths. So Christler keeps their string 421 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 1: going another month for them, and we'll see if if 422 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 1: that translates to the other automakers and the auto reports 423 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 1: dribble out during the day, we will have coverage of 424 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 1: that across all of Bloomberg Radio futures and negative eight