1 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. There is so much 2 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:11,120 Speaker 1: going on with the presidential race right now. I'm laughing 3 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: as with that. I mean, there is so much going on. 4 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: I wanted to talk with somebody who follows the ups 5 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: and downs of the race and reports on them for Politico. 6 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: So I'm really pleased to welcome my guests, Jonathan Martin. 7 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: He is the Politics bureau chief and senior political columnist 8 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: to Politico, where he writes a column on the inside 9 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: conversation and big picture trends shaping politics. Prior to starting 10 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 1: his column in twenty twenty two, he was the national 11 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 1: political correspondent for The New York Times, serving as the 12 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: publication's top political report of for early a decade. And 13 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: I can tell you personally everything I see his stuff, 14 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: I read it. He is one of the three or 15 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: four smartest people analyzing American politics. He does so with 16 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: a sense of really trying to get at the facts 17 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: and not just being sort of a propagandist. He's also 18 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: the co author of the New York Times bestseller This 19 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:21,040 Speaker 1: Will Not Pass Trump Biden in the Battle from America's Future. Jonathan, 20 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 1: Welcome and thank you for joining me on News World. 21 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me backspeaker. You were kind enough to 22 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 2: have us on when the book came out in twenty 23 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 2: two and sold us a few copies, so I'm grateful 24 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 2: for having us down and have me now well. 25 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: So I'm always delighted to help budding authors get as 26 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 1: many sales as they can get, you know, something. 27 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 2: From selling box. Absolutely. 28 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, but I have to start Challista and I, as 29 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 1: you know, and we were talking, We're in Rome during 30 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: the debate, so we literally got up at three in 31 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: the morning because we just had this instinct that this 32 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 1: debate would be important. Now, I will tell you in advance. 33 00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: I thought if Trump got by with no more than 34 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 1: one or two minor mistakes and Biden had three or 35 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: four of the kind of gafs we've seen did, that 36 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 1: would be a good night for us. It would never 37 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: have occurred to me to have Biden as collapsing as 38 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: he was, and to watch it for ninety minutes. I 39 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 1: was really glad that we get up and watched it, 40 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: because I think you had to see it live to 41 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: really appreciate it. But what was your reaction watching it 42 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 1: that night? 43 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 2: It was the same in real time. You're kind of 44 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 2: looking around the room to see or other people seeing 45 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 2: what you're seeing, and is this going as poorly for 46 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 2: the president as it seemed, And obviously it was. It 47 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 2: was almost surreal in the sense that he was unable 48 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 2: to drive a message or in some answered even complete 49 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 2: a thought. So it was obviously a disaster for him politically. 50 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 2: I can tell you that within the first twenty minutes 51 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 2: I was getting text messages on emails from elected Democratic 52 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 2: officials already talking about inability to be the nominee, saying 53 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 2: in blunt terms, we have to get him out of 54 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 2: the race. So this movement to drop Biden speaker was 55 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,519 Speaker 2: underway within minutes of that debate taking place. 56 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 1: From your perspective, as you've watched sort of this roller coaster, 57 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: my sense was that people on the left were so 58 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: shaken and it was so sort of unimaginable that you 59 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:34,119 Speaker 1: don't get in the opening round the kind of response 60 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: it takes four or five days to really be in 61 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: to build. And I think one of the differences between 62 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: the Trump operation, which has been engaged in sort of 63 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: permanent warfare since June of twenty fifteen, the Trump people 64 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: would have the following morning already been on offense and 65 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 1: trying to figure out what to do and reaching out, 66 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: and the Biden people were sort of lackadaisical and I 67 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: think couldn't quite imagine if it had happened. Does that 68 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: fit we well? 69 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 2: I think the Biden folks thought it was a bad 70 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 2: one day store that they could fix the next day 71 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 2: if Biden was energetic at his rally in North Carolina. 72 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 2: And I think that's where the breakdown occurred, that it 73 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 2: wasn't just a one day store, and you couldn't do 74 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 2: triage by having a good event the following day. That 75 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 2: wasn't sufficient. The damage was more profound, and I think 76 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 2: that is the issue for the Biden folks. They didn't 77 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 2: take it seriously enough, fast enough, and that's why they're 78 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 2: still digging out of this whole. 79 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: Ten days later, there's a brief period when there's a 80 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: serious talk about whether or not to get Biden off 81 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: the ticket. I don't see unless he goes voluntarily, I 82 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 1: don't see any way to do it. 83 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 2: I agree, I agree. I think the only way at 84 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 2: this point, Speaker, is if he has some kind of 85 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 2: an undiagnosed health issue that we don't know about that emerges, 86 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 2: and I think that would give the Congressional Democrats cover 87 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,280 Speaker 2: to try to force out I think absent that I 88 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 2: think he's sticking, and I think he's sticking for one 89 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 2: straightforward reason. I wrote about it my column earlier this week. 90 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 2: Biden has convinced himself that the rank and file of 91 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 2: his party is just fine with him remaining as their nominee, 92 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 2: and that the effort to dump him is from the 93 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 2: so called elites of the party who never liked him 94 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 2: in the first place. He's trying to rerun the twenty 95 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 2: twenty Democratic primary effectively at warp speed here in the 96 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 2: summer of twenty four by saying, the wise guys, the establishment, 97 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 2: the insiders don't like me, never have, don't take me seriously. 98 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,279 Speaker 2: The people are with me. Now, you and I know. 99 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,279 Speaker 2: It's more complicated than that. The polling shows that plenty 100 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,359 Speaker 2: of record file Democrats want to dump him, but that's 101 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 2: been his frame to survive. That's been his sort of 102 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 2: battle plan, and it's working so far, in part because 103 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 2: members of Congress don't have the courage of their convictions 104 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 2: to speak out what they actually believe about him, because 105 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 2: they don't want to at crosswise with some of their voters. 106 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 1: Their current plan is to actually have a virtual vote 107 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: because of the Ohio Law, which is sort of a 108 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 1: blessing to Biden. The Io Law requires naming the candidates 109 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:16,359 Speaker 1: before the Democratic Convention. 110 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 2: And this is actually an important point that you'll appreciate 111 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 2: being an historian and a practitioner of politics. The Democrats 112 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 2: historically were the insurgent party. They were the disorderly party. 113 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 2: They're the top down party now. They are so hierarchical, 114 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 2: they are commanded control. They don't like messes, they don't 115 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 2: like disorder. They want to be surgical about this. So 116 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 2: to your point, there's not going to be a sort 117 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 2: of floor fight or some kind of a stampede at 118 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:50,279 Speaker 2: the convention. Democrats want to beat Donald Trump first, second, 119 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 2: and third. They don't want disorder on their side. And 120 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:58,039 Speaker 2: I think that helps Biden, that compulsion toward order to 121 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 2: fend off Trump. That's been the order of the day 122 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 2: for Democrats for almost a decade now, stave off dissent, 123 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 2: don't talk about our private business in public, focus on Trump. 124 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 2: And I think that is really aiding Biden at this 125 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 2: stage of the game, because he knows the alternative to 126 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 2: him is chaos, and his party doesn't want chaos. 127 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: If you were a serious Democrat, you were desperate to win, 128 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: you concluded that Biden couldn't win. I don't see how 129 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: you get past Kamala. 130 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 2: Well, that's the other issue that a lot of Democrats 131 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three in elected office were uneasy about 132 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 2: Biden running as their nominee, but they didn't want to 133 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 2: engage the next question, which always was okay, well, if 134 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 2: you're not for Biden, are you for the vice president? 135 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 2: And of course they didn't want to litigate that issue. 136 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:47,640 Speaker 2: And that's why I think there was no real effort 137 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 2: to speak out against Biden in twenty twenty three. Right, 138 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 2: I'm with you. If it's not Biden, I'm skeptical that 139 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 2: Biden will drop out. But for some reason it's not Biden, 140 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 2: I'm almost certain it would be Kamala Harris as the alternative. 141 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 2: That raises the question of would she be better than 142 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 2: a wounded Biden? 143 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 1: This fault she's actually more vulnerable than Biden. She has 144 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: a that much narrower base of acceptability. 145 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 2: There are Democrats who are working on campaigns who believe 146 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 2: the same thing that in some ways Democratic Senate, gubernatorial 147 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 2: and House candidates would be better off with a wounded Biden, 148 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 2: because the Democratic Party and their keyndidates below the top 149 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 2: of the ticket could go straight to the messaging of 150 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 2: Tammy Baldwin or whoever else. Bob Casey will be a 151 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 2: check on Donald Trump. Right, You've been in enough campaign speaker, 152 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 2: including nineteen ninety six, to know when you're losing the 153 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 2: top of the ticket. A lot of candidates down ballot 154 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,079 Speaker 2: changed their message in the fault to say I'll be 155 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,960 Speaker 2: a check on so and so, and I think that's 156 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 2: what you would see with a wounded Biden. It's more 157 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 2: complicated with Kamala Harris. 158 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: I wrote a book called March the Majority in described 159 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: the sixteen year project to trying to a majority for 160 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: the first time in forty years. We found that as 161 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,559 Speaker 1: long as we had a Republican president, it was really hard. 162 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 1: For that reason because people said, wait a second, this 163 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 1: could be a big issue this fall. If it becomes 164 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: clear that Biden both is the nominee and can't win, 165 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: then creating a sense of balance in the Congress I 166 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: think becomes a surprisingly real threat to Republicans. 167 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 2: Absolutely. And by the way, you don't have to go 168 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 2: back to ninety six. There was a more recent example 169 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 2: of this, it wasn't as explicit in terms of being 170 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 2: a check on Biden. But twenty twenty was a pretty 171 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 2: darn good year for the Republican Party. I mean, obviously 172 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 2: Trump lost on the top of the ticket because in 173 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 2: three states he had a seventy thousand vote deficit, But 174 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 2: you look at people like Susan Collins in twenty twenty, 175 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 2: you know she won, she was successful. So there's certainly 176 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 2: a scenario where you can see Democratic senators hanging on 177 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 2: in twenty four even while by the lose us. 178 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 1: Let me ask one question, which is I think unusually 179 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:09,200 Speaker 1: troubling and sensitive, and that is the whole speculation that 180 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 1: Biden has Parkinson's disease. It's been reported that a doctor 181 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: who specializes in Parkinson's visited the White House eight times 182 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 1: in eight months. Do you have any sense of this 183 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: from the people you talk to? 184 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 2: You know, what they have said the White House is 185 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 2: that he got looked at by a neurologist as part 186 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 2: of his annual physical checkup, and that there's nothing beyond that. 187 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 2: But as you know, there's a long history of presidents 188 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 2: who had undisclosed health issues for centuries. That's been going 189 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 2: on in American politics, right, so we don't know what 190 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 2: we don't know there. I will say this from a 191 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 2: straight political standpoint, I think that is the only way 192 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 2: that Biden could be removed from the ticket. I'm with you. 193 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 2: I think Biden is going to be the nominee. But 194 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 2: if there is some undisclosed or revealed health issue, I 195 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 2: think that would be the way that he has taken 196 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 2: off the ticket. 197 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:19,679 Speaker 1: As you talk to people and look at all this stuff, 198 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 1: and you've got a remarkable sense of the whole nation, 199 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: which is why you're one of the best reporters in 200 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 1: the business. How much do you think the debate actually 201 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 1: hurt Biden and how much it was just a glancing 202 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: blow rather than a definitive problem. 203 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 2: Well, if you put it in terms of Vegas the odds, 204 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 2: he was probably going into the debate, he probably had 205 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 2: a forty sixty chance to win the election, and I 206 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 2: think that the debate lowered that. Right. He was already 207 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 2: the underdog, and I think the debate just made them 208 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 2: more of an underdog speaker. I think he still is 209 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 2: in the game. I think that American politics in this 210 00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 2: year is about Donald Trump, Donald Trump and Donald Trump 211 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 2: and Donald Trump. It's his to lose, as the saying goes, 212 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:06,079 Speaker 2: and he may do just that. I mean, I do 213 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 2: think that Trump has been more disciplined this time around, 214 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 2: but obviously he's got a track record of saying things 215 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 2: that are out landition provocative, and he certainly could give 216 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 2: away the election. But I think right now that is 217 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 2: the only thing Democrats have going for them is their 218 00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 2: entire bet is that Trump will blow himself up sometime 219 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 2: this fall and the country will default to Biden. That's 220 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 2: not great odds if you're a Democrat, but I think 221 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 2: that's where this election is now. Democrats depending entirely on 222 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 2: Trump creating some kind of a massiveness staff for mistake. 223 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: Have you been surprised how disciplined Trump has been for 224 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 1: the last ten days. 225 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,559 Speaker 2: I have, I have. Besides that one moment where he was, 226 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 2: you know, I'm a golf cart and was caught by 227 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 2: a phone camera, He's been remarkably disciplined. But if you 228 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 2: talk to emmy Republican they will tell you privately, the 229 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 2: best chance Trump has to win is the less he says, 230 00:12:57,280 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 2: the less he does. Look if he stayed at more 231 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 2: a log playing eighteen holes every day and didn't speak 232 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 2: between now an election day, I think he'd win foreigner 233 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 2: electoral votes. 234 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,439 Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, it is funny that even with the debate, 235 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: there seems to be almost a ceiling that Trump has 236 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 1: not penetrated. 237 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, we agree on that. Look, Trump is such a 238 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 2: defined political product in America. There's so few voters that 239 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 2: are uncertain where they stand on Trump. A friend of 240 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 2: my liking did almost to the Civil War and have 241 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:30,959 Speaker 2: the Civil War defined American politics afterward, everything was shaped 242 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:33,199 Speaker 2: by which side where you are the North of the South. 243 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 2: And I think that that's Trump in this era. People 244 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 2: know where they are on Trump, and I think that 245 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 2: helps him because his floor is so damn solid, But 246 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 2: it hurts him because he does have a ceiling, and 247 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 2: you know, he's never going to be a majoritarian figure 248 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 2: of this country. He can win, but he's never going 249 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 2: to be a fifty three percent candidate. Never. 250 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 1: It'll be a sin to watch because I think there's 251 00:13:55,080 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: a very different question than the one people currently focusing on. 252 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,440 Speaker 1: I mean, currently people are really saying can Biden win? 253 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: I think the deeper question is do you really believe 254 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 1: he could be president for the next four years? 255 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 2: And I think that gets to the heart of the 256 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 2: most profound problem Democrats have on their hands for the 257 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 2: next four months is how do they look in the 258 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 2: camera governor or senator, congressman and say that Joe Biden 259 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 2: can serve for four more years. I think it's a 260 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 2: really difficult case to make to the voter that this 261 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 2: person can serve in this capacity for four more years. 262 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 2: I think it's one thing to say that he's the 263 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 2: better candidate than Trump, or that Trump is unfit for office. 264 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 2: I think it's harder for them to say, yes, America, 265 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 2: this man can serve PAS eighty six well. 266 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: And at the same time, that means that the role 267 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: of Kamala becomes much bigger, because in a sense, you 268 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: can make the argument, if you vote for Biden, you're 269 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 1: actually voting in all probability for Kamala to become president. 270 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 2: And that was always the subtext of this election. I 271 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 2: think what happens now is that it's the actual text. 272 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 2: I mean, I think you're going to see that Republicans 273 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 2: make that case directly in a much more over way. 274 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 2: And it's Trump, so he doesn't really do subtle in 275 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 2: the first place, so Trump will to say it out loud. 276 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever seen him be particularly subtle. 277 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 2: No, No, he reads those stage directions out loud, doesn't it. 278 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: That's because he's New York Post, He's not New York Times. 279 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 2: You got it, you got it. 280 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 1: I think he learned that style he was a businessman. 281 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 2: You don't have to wait until the seventeenth paragraph with 282 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. 283 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: You get it in the lead, yeah, or on page one. 284 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 2: Exactly and the exactly the screaming headline exactly. 285 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 1: Really, were you surprised by the Supreme Court ruling on immunity? 286 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 2: I was, yeah. I thought they would dismiss it and 287 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 2: avoid the hot potato altogether. How about you? 288 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: I thought they walked through pretty carefully. I listened to 289 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: the oral arguments about half of them, and you could 290 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: tell that they, in a funny kind of way, the 291 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 1: New York trial moved them because it suddenly was an 292 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: indication that, even though that was a state level trial, 293 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: that Bragg represented the potential for political prosecutors to go 294 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 1: after presidents after they left office in a way that 295 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: would take apart the whole system and would mean that 296 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 1: any president would be permanently at risk. And you could 297 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: hear that in their questions, including from some of the 298 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: more moderate of the conservatives. So in that sense, I 299 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: was surprised. Andy McCarthy other is now making the argument that, 300 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 1: in fact, it clearly eliminates the case in New York 301 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: because it was based on his official acts. 302 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 2: That's the question, right, And you saw that judge pushback 303 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 2: sentencing in New York for the same reason. So I 304 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 2: mean this could have a second order effect on that 305 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 2: case too. 306 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 1: Part of the response on the left is sort of 307 00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: the way we used to respond to the war in court, 308 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 1: people's vowing to file articles of impeachment, et cetera. Doesn't 309 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: that only just become noise? 310 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think it matters as much politically. People's 311 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 2: minds are not going to be changed about Donald Trump 312 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,920 Speaker 2: because of this case. Look, I think part of the reason, Speaker, 313 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 2: why the Biden White House called for a June debate 314 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:25,120 Speaker 2: is because the trial was not breaking through in American culture. 315 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,919 Speaker 2: This trial was a non factor for much of the 316 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 2: time that was going on, and the Biden folks knew 317 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 2: they had to change the trajectory of the race. And 318 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:36,399 Speaker 2: because the trial wasn't cutting in the eyes, and so 319 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 2: they called for this debate, and they put all their 320 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 2: chips on the table in this debate, and obviously it backfired. 321 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 2: But I think you can trace this debate happening in June. 322 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,679 Speaker 2: Unprecedented to have a June debate, in part because the 323 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 2: Biden folks realized this trial is not moving the needle politically. 324 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 1: Well, of course, it's also to some extent unprecedented to 325 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 1: have to Canada so early lock up their nomination and 326 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 1: have both of them having been president. 327 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:09,919 Speaker 2: I'm trying to think of when there was such little 328 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 2: primary competition with a non incumbent president. 329 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:14,919 Speaker 1: Oh, George W. 330 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:19,360 Speaker 2: Bush ninety nine, two thousand, but Bush lost, knew, I'm 331 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 2: sure he lost Michigan, right, yep. 332 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 1: In that sense, Trump's dominance and Biden's, although Biden is 333 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: an incumbent, was in relatively better shape giving everything that 334 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 1: happened to Trump. The fact that he could come back, 335 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 1: build the machine he has built and so decisively win 336 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 1: the nomination is pretty astonishing. 337 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 2: He's a pop culture figure. It's bigger than politics. He's 338 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 2: a cultural phenomenon whose grip on the voter or his 339 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 2: base is bigger than American politics. I mean, I realized 340 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 2: this when it occurred to me that the Trump lawn 341 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,919 Speaker 2: sign or the Trump four x eight sign was not 342 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 2: going to be taken down after the election. You know, 343 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 2: historically in this country, as you know, we put the 344 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,399 Speaker 2: long signs out in the fall and they're on the 345 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 2: median or somebody's front yard, and then you know, we 346 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 2: have Halloween, and it's election Day, and then it's Thanksgiving 347 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 2: him the signs come in, right, Trump's signs never came 348 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:15,919 Speaker 2: back in, And that, to me told me everything. 349 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 1: I was astonished, Cliston. I went back to her Homa 350 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 1: Mater Luther College in. 351 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,120 Speaker 2: De Cor, Iowa. Yes, sir, there you go. 352 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: This is proof to our audience. You do know America. 353 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 2: Mayme's Pizza, which I know you've been to before. 354 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,959 Speaker 1: Yeah, Christ used to rent the apartment above Mabes. I 355 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: mean said August to be. 356 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 2: A small world exactly. 357 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 1: She was being honored for lifetime achievements. And we're walking 358 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 1: down Main Street and there's a store. Now this is 359 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: eight nine months ago. There's a store that is Trump. 360 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: It's not the campaign, it's not organized as local people 361 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:55,119 Speaker 1: who have been running this store filled up with Trump material. 362 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 1: I try to tell reporters, you cannot think of him 363 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:02,120 Speaker 1: as a candidate. He is the champion of a national 364 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 1: movement which is why when he gets attacked by the left, 365 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: he gets bigger because the left is attacking our champion, 366 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:15,119 Speaker 1: he's not attacking some candidate. It's a really giantic and 367 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: I think very much underappreciated reality. 368 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I as big as Reagan was on the right, 369 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 2: and even as big as Obama was with a lot 370 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 2: of Democrats, there was not this sort of perpetual, sustained 371 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,919 Speaker 2: movement with him, right with either of them. I was 372 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 2: Red Lodge, Montana over July fourth, same thing on Main Street. 373 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 2: There's a Trump store of Trump paraphernalia. You just wouldn't 374 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 2: see that, right with previous presidents. He's a bigger figure 375 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 2: than that, which I think helps him and it helped 376 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 2: ensure his nomination. But the double edge to that sword 377 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 2: is that he's a cultural figure in a way that 378 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 2: alienates a lot of the country too. 379 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,679 Speaker 1: I think you almost have to go back to Andrew 380 00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 1: Jackson to get the level of passion that is inspired 381 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: in the level of divisiveness. 382 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 2: I think FDR almost gets you there. Right, people hate 383 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 2: a FDR in ways that folks Sti'll understand nowadays because 384 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 2: in the history of the COT FDR was this incredible 385 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,600 Speaker 2: leader and the wheelshair with foul the dog. FDR was 386 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 2: detested by what a third of the country. 387 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: That's a fair commentary. I think people really loved and 388 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,160 Speaker 1: rally TIFTR. I mean. The other person, of course, who 389 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:28,680 Speaker 1: was deeply divisive was Lincoln. 390 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 2: It was a wartime figure too, which helped RIGHT and 391 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 2: the FDR became less divisive after the war. 392 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 1: Right I was gonna say, I mean, Lincoln is the 393 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: other person when you realized that, I think there were 394 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 1: ten states that would not put him on the ballot. 395 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 1: It was a genuine knockdown, drag out fight. 396 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 2: These figures in the present have been transformed into almost 397 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 2: Disney like characters, but you know, in real time, flesh 398 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 2: and blood American politics, they were deeply polarizing and divisive. 399 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: I'm cuous. So you had a chance to look at 400 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 1: the new Republican Party platform. 401 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 2: I have, and it reminded me a lot of Donald 402 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:27,640 Speaker 2: Trump's tweets, and because you could tell it came from 403 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,679 Speaker 2: you know, it's interesting. Trump is one of those politicians 404 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 2: where you know when the words on the screen came 405 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 2: from him versus somebody else, and you can really tell 406 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 2: a lot of it's from him. 407 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,359 Speaker 1: I was very close to the people who were putting 408 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:45,239 Speaker 1: it together, and it really was Donald Trump's platform, and 409 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:46,640 Speaker 1: he made no bones about it. 410 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 2: I'm almost to the point where they may as well 411 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,119 Speaker 2: have had it like in a black sharpie that he 412 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 2: wrote with his own hand. I mean, it was so 413 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 2: vividly Trump, you know, the language, the presentation of it. 414 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,400 Speaker 2: It was pure Trump New York as you would say, yeah. 415 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, And of course that was as you know, that 416 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 1: was by design, and very early on, Susie Wills and 417 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 1: Chris Olasovita, the two top people, sent out a memo 418 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 1: that's quite detailed that says it will be shorter, it 419 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 1: will be clear for the average American. They sort of 420 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 1: outlined and then I think the last platform in twenty 421 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:26,119 Speaker 1: sixteen was thirty seven thousand words and I think this 422 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:27,439 Speaker 1: one's forty six hundred. 423 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 2: That tells you everything you need to know. And also 424 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 2: just from a content standpoint, it reflects what Trump's politic. Now, 425 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,680 Speaker 2: Trump doesn't have a lot of deep seated ideological views, 426 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,200 Speaker 2: but you know, he does have some instincts, and obviously 427 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:46,440 Speaker 2: this reflects that he's not a sort of cultural traditionalist 428 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 2: or cultural warrior by any means, but does feel strongly 429 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:54,440 Speaker 2: about issues relating to trade and immigration. I think this 430 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:55,119 Speaker 2: reflects that. 431 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, we run a project called the America's New Majority Project. 432 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 1: Can go see at America's New Majority Project dot com. 433 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: Since twenty eighteen, we've done well over thirty seven thousand interviews. 434 00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,919 Speaker 1: And if you were to track where the American people 435 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:15,359 Speaker 1: are and lay it over this platform, it is remarkably close. 436 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 1: I think Trump uses his rallies as focus. 437 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 2: Groups, absolutely, and you live this in twenty twelve, and 438 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 2: you watched it closely. In two thousand and eight, there 439 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 2: was a marketplace for what I would call kind of 440 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:37,440 Speaker 2: fiscal traditionalism, almost liberalism, and a harder line on the border, 441 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 2: don't touch in titlements. Let's crack down on countries that 442 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,320 Speaker 2: are cheating on us with their goods. Hawkabe did a 443 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 2: little bit of that in eight. Santorum did some of 444 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 2: that in twelve. And this is where Trump has really 445 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:54,400 Speaker 2: taken the party, and to your point, with the general electorate, 446 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,719 Speaker 2: there is an appetite for what you could call economic 447 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 2: moderation or even in liberalism, with a hard line on immigration, 448 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 2: a hard line on trade. You can and did some 449 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 2: of this in ninety two. There's always been a market 450 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:14,240 Speaker 2: for this and it's a market with working class voters, white, Hispanic, Black, 451 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 2: and Asian. 452 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:19,240 Speaker 1: Are you surprised by how much the two party coalitions 453 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:19,880 Speaker 1: are swapping. 454 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 2: Yes. I think it's the great story of our time. 455 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,639 Speaker 2: I think it's the most important political trend of this era, 456 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:30,160 Speaker 2: which is the great realignment of scale. Voters are obviously 457 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,159 Speaker 2: much more incline to support Democrats now mostly on culture 458 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 2: and identity, and the same thing for working class voters. 459 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:39,679 Speaker 2: Here's where I'm fascinated, though, At what point do we 460 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:44,919 Speaker 2: see the changing coalitions reflected in the policies? Okay, because 461 00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 2: let's take, for example, in the Senate, which is still 462 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:51,439 Speaker 2: kind of more reflective of the older GOP. You know, 463 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:55,440 Speaker 2: after the train derailment in Ohio, you had this coalition 464 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 2: of Shared Brown and JD. Vans and Josh Holly who 465 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,879 Speaker 2: wanted to crack down on the railroads and really regulate them. 466 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 2: And the challenge is that there's an appetite for that 467 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 2: among Democrats, but they couldn't gather Republicans. At what point 468 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 2: do Republicans reflect their coalition when it comes to labor 469 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,920 Speaker 2: and economics, And at what point do Democrats reflect their 470 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,680 Speaker 2: coalition when it comes to economics. I think that's the 471 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 2: big question. 472 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:27,119 Speaker 1: The underlying movement of the voters is preceding the movement 473 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:27,360 Speaker 1: of the. 474 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 2: Politicians absolutely, especially in the Senate, which as we know, 475 00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 2: move slowly generally. 476 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 1: But that's sort of what the Founding Fathers wanted. I 477 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,359 Speaker 1: say this with some bias, since I was Speaker of 478 00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,159 Speaker 1: the House. The Founding Fathers intended for the Senate to 479 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: be sort of a sea anchor, slowing down patterns and trends, 480 00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 1: and they expected the House to always overreact. 481 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 2: It'll be fascinating to see if the House does ever 482 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,560 Speaker 2: move any legislation, if you had a Republican majority in 483 00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:00,159 Speaker 2: the House, Senate and a Republican president, would these or 484 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 2: move anything that's more congenial to labor. We're still always 485 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,440 Speaker 2: off from that, but I think that'll be the great test. 486 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 1: Let me ask you one of those sandwiches about your profession. 487 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: To what extent does it bother you that the coverage 488 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 1: of Biden had been shaded in such a way that 489 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 1: the debate was a great shock. 490 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 2: Well, I can speak for myself until you that. In 491 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, I wrote multiple columns about the challenge 492 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,359 Speaker 2: of Biden's age, and I was the first person to 493 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 2: write the news that Dean Phillips was thinking about running 494 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,880 Speaker 2: for a president because nobody else was doing it, and 495 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 2: that Biden wouldn't address his age. And I can tell 496 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,159 Speaker 2: you when I did that, I had a lot of 497 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:48,880 Speaker 2: conversations with Democratic lawmakers who said, yeah, you're right, this 498 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,719 Speaker 2: is a problem, but it was a collective action issue. 499 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,159 Speaker 2: No Democratic governor, senator, or House member wanted to be 500 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 2: the person to raise their hand first and say, mister President, 501 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,159 Speaker 2: for your service, we honor you. I hope you and 502 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 2: Jill will take this gold watch and have fun in 503 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 2: Rehoboth and enjoy the grandkids. None of them wanted to 504 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 2: be the first, and they all wanted the other guy 505 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,120 Speaker 2: to do it. And we're seeing the same problem now. Frankly, 506 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 2: nobody wants to say it out loud like that, And 507 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 2: I think that was the issue. The sentiment was there, 508 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,000 Speaker 2: but nobody would put their name on it, and so 509 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 2: nobody ever spoke out. And I think we're seeing the 510 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 2: same challenge now. But I have a question for you, though, 511 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,720 Speaker 2: because you live through nineteen ninety six and you know 512 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,960 Speaker 2: what it's like when your candidates are running and the 513 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,119 Speaker 2: top of the ticket is destined to lose or at 514 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 2: least struggle to win. Do you think in this polarized 515 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 2: era that we're in a much more polarized, calcified moment 516 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 2: than ninety six. Do you think that ticket splitting could 517 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 2: make any kind of a resurgence if Biden is on 518 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 2: top of the ticket. Could Democratic senators survive and get 519 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 2: folks to ticket split because it's so obvious that Trump's 520 00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:58,280 Speaker 2: going to win. 521 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,840 Speaker 1: I think this could be like nonineteen seventy two when 522 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 1: Nixon crushed McGovern because mcgovernor just totally collapsed, but the 523 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,719 Speaker 1: Democrats actually did pretty well in the congressional races. And 524 00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 1: I think it goes back to your point, which is 525 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 1: if the Democrats say, you know, Trump's probably going to win, 526 00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 1: and therefore you need me to be a balance against Trump, 527 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,160 Speaker 1: that means that they have sort of abandoned their candidate. 528 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 1: And we faced that problem in ninety six because we 529 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 1: had a welfare reform bill that was very, very popular, 530 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 1: and we had kept medicaid reform on it, and so 531 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,479 Speaker 1: Clinton had used that as excuse to veto it, and 532 00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 1: we were faced with the question of whether to pass 533 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 1: just a clean welfare reform bill and the Dole people 534 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 1: were desperate for us not to do it because they 535 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 1: thought it was their most effective weapon to potentially beat Clinton. 536 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 1: We had a conference for a couple of hours and 537 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,960 Speaker 1: our members said, look, we have not been re elected 538 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,400 Speaker 1: since nineteen twenty eight, you know, the first majority in 539 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,640 Speaker 1: forty years, the first to be re elected in sixty 540 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,239 Speaker 1: eight years. And they said, if we don't pass this, 541 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: we will not be re elected as a majority. I 542 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,920 Speaker 1: had the duty of calling Dole's campaign manager and saying, 543 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 1: we're going to move the bill, how about go. He 544 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 1: was very sad he was not having an argum when 545 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:23,560 Speaker 1: he was having a report. You may see a point 546 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 1: this August September, particularly if Biden gets worse, where the 547 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:34,880 Speaker 1: Democratic battle cry becomes help us balance off the Trump presidency. 548 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 2: And the only question is who's the first one to 549 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,160 Speaker 2: do it? Is it John Tester and Montana share at 550 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,360 Speaker 2: Brown in Ohio? Who will be the first one to 551 00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 2: run that ad? 552 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 1: Saying well, Tester probably needs it more than anybody else 553 00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: because Trump's margin of Montana is going to be horrifying. 554 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 2: And you can see it now. I'll stand up to 555 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 2: President Trump when he deserves it, and I'll work with 556 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,720 Speaker 2: him when he's good for Montana. You can see the 557 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 2: script now right. It writes itself. It writes itself, what 558 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 2: a year for politics and what a year for historians. 559 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,040 Speaker 1: I'm going to thank you for joining me. I knew, 560 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,560 Speaker 1: given everything I've read that you'd work on that you'd 561 00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,960 Speaker 1: be fascinating. You are. Our listeners can actually read your 562 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 1: reporting at politico dot com. Your book This Will Not 563 00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 1: Pass Trump Biden in the Battle for America's Future about 564 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,560 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty election, is a fascinating read and useful 565 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,160 Speaker 1: in looking at what's happening now. And it's available at 566 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 1: Amazon and in bookstors. Every word. Jonathan anytime, if you 567 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,360 Speaker 1: want to join me and have a chat like this, 568 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 1: I'd be honored. You were one of the great students 569 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,840 Speaker 1: of American politics and it's great that you would share 570 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 1: with us. 571 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,280 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me, speaker, and thanks again for the book. 572 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,520 Speaker 2: Plug and the title is This Will Not Pass, which 573 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 2: three years later holds up pretty darn well. I'll say. 574 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:47,640 Speaker 1: It's great. 575 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:49,120 Speaker 2: Thanks Speaker, CM Milwaukee. 576 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,120 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest Jonathan Martin. You can get 577 00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,560 Speaker 1: a link to read his column and Politico on our 578 00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 1: show page at Newtsworld dot com Newsworld is produced by 579 00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 1: Ginglish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guardnsei 580 00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 1: Sloan and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for 581 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:13,480 Speaker 1: the show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to 582 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 1: the team at Ginglishtree sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, 583 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 1: I hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts and both rate 584 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 1: us with five stars and give us a review so 585 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 1: others can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners 586 00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 1: of Newtsworld can sign up for my three free weekly 587 00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:34,040 Speaker 1: columns at gingershtree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. 588 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 1: This is Newtsworld.