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Speaker 1: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up,

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Speaker 1: straight Fire fan? It's the Jason McIntyre Straight Fire for Friday,

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Speaker 1: October seven. I'm not gonna lie, folks. I woke up

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Speaker 1: this morning, opened up the computer, and I fully expected

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Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos to have fired Nathaniel Hackett after last

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Speaker 1: night's unbelievably bad, downright puget from it worthy performance in

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Speaker 1: a twelve nine overtime loss to the Indianapolis Cult. It's

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Speaker 1: not gonna ruin my Friday vibe, though I did yes

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Speaker 1: have Denver by three. It did not cash first half undercash,

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Speaker 1: so you got that ticket at one and one. You

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Speaker 1: lose a little on the big um. Not a great

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Speaker 1: start to the weekend. But holy hell, was that bad

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Speaker 1: football last night? My gosh. The good news is we

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Speaker 1: got a phenomenal podcast today. Great guest Patrick Everson. He

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Speaker 1: writes for Fox Sports Digital, he writes for Vegas Insider.

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Speaker 1: He's carved out a good niche where he's kind of

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Speaker 1: the go between between the sports books and the betters.

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Speaker 1: He is one of those guys that gets information when

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Speaker 1: the big bets come in where the public money is.

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Speaker 1: If you want to, if you value that a lot,

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Speaker 1: and it's an interesting data point. For sure. You're gonna

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Speaker 1: love what Patrick has to say about this weekend's games.

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Speaker 1: I'll tease one right now if you don't follow me

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Speaker 1: on social media. The Miami Dolphins have of the handle

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Speaker 1: against in my New York Jets. Now again, A lot

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Speaker 1: more bets will come in Saturday and Sunday. I'm leading

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Speaker 1: up to game time, but it's early. I think you're

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Speaker 1: gonna like the guests at the end of the bet.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the podcast best Bets NFL it

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Speaker 1: guaranteed will go bet and last week last week was

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Speaker 1: not great. Um, I feel good about this week. A

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Speaker 1: lot of money in play. Let's see how it goes.

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Speaker 1: But first, before the guest and the best bets, I

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Speaker 1: don't know what you say about the Denver Broncos at

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Speaker 1: this point. Was I wrong about Russ and the Broncos?

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Speaker 1: Certainly they are unwatchable, folks. This was the first overtime

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Speaker 1: game with no touchdowns in five years. It was absolutely

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Speaker 1: brutal and a lot of it falls on We know

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Speaker 1: the Colt stink. They're missing their best running back, Jonathan Taylor.

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Speaker 1: Matt Ryan is awful. His pocket awareness is like a

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Speaker 1: minus seven. It's dreadful. That being said, there's absolutely no

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Speaker 1: way the Broncos are supposed to lose his football game.

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Speaker 1: I mean, listen, it was six three at the half.

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Speaker 1: You're like, all right, cool, you know the first half

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Speaker 1: under cash is I'm almost certain in the second half,

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Speaker 1: denverl we'll get some separation. Get the dub folks. Are

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Speaker 1: you ready for this? The Broncos had first and ten

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Speaker 1: at the Indiana nine yard line and had a field

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Speaker 1: goal blocked. This is all in the second half. They

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Speaker 1: had first and ten at the Indiana twenty seven. They

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Speaker 1: ended up settling for a field goal. First and ten

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Speaker 1: at the Indiana thirty two. Interception first and ten at

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Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts nineteen. Interception first and ten at the

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis four team turnover on downs five times inside the

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Speaker 1: Colts thirty five, and they got three points. That's fully

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Speaker 1: fully on Hackett and Russell Wilson. I'm not gonna give

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Speaker 1: us a pass. When you go over four in the

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Speaker 1: frigging red zone at home against the Colts, nobody gets passed.

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Speaker 1: This was an abomination, and I'm not kidding. Nathaniel Hackett

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Speaker 1: could be getting the Urban Meyer treatment. I don't know

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Speaker 1: about Halloween because that's very very soon, but by Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 1: if the if the Broncos have not turned this around,

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Speaker 1: I don't see how you can go into the month

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Speaker 1: of December with Nathaniel Hacket as your head coach. Now

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Speaker 1: we went over this with our guest yesterday. There isn't

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Speaker 1: a real solid interim coach on the roster. That's one

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Speaker 1: of the major problems. I mean, this is a total

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Speaker 1: failure by the Broncos. Listen, it should have been assigned

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Speaker 1: to me when they couldn't get separation from the frigging

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Speaker 1: Texans a few weeks back. That this team's got problems.

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Speaker 1: You lose to the Raiders, understandable, you know, like I

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Speaker 1: get it. The Raiders were desk britt, but you didn't

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Speaker 1: play great defensively this time. The defensive solid. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they really roughed up Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan, who really

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Speaker 1: feels like he's on the virgin getting benched for Sam

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Speaker 1: Elinger when he comes back healthy because he can actually

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Speaker 1: run around in the pocket. Matt Ryan sacks six times,

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Speaker 1: leads the NFL and turnovers, loses his running back. Remember

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Speaker 1: I'm not talking about Jonathan Taylor. I'm talking about Nimes

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Speaker 1: Hines first quarter gets knocked out with a concussion. They

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Speaker 1: were handing off to Philip Lindsay, who they got off

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Speaker 1: the practice squad, squad and somebody named Dion Jackson, who,

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Speaker 1: I promise you I've never heard of this guy, never

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Speaker 1: heard of him, and he had their thirteen carries the

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts seventy four plays. One of them went for

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Speaker 1: over twenty yards and it was to this Jackson kid

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Speaker 1: on a pass. That's it. I don't know you. Nothing

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Speaker 1: makes sense with the Indianapolis Colts and why they can't

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Speaker 1: move the football at all. The defense was good, though,

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Speaker 1: they did sack Russell Wilson four times. And I've got

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Speaker 1: to ask us, and I've defended Russ, I'm not selling

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. He's obviously not winning the MVPs. It's obvious.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe those words even came out of my

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Speaker 1: damn mouth in the preseason as a potential m VP candidate.

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Speaker 1: But I need to know why Russell Wilson is not

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Speaker 1: rolling out of the pocket ever, Like what the hell

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Speaker 1: is going on? And we saw this with Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 1: on fourth and goal from the two against the Bills.

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Speaker 1: It costs me money. We see it with Russell Wilson

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Speaker 1: on fourth and one inside the tent, and it costs

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Speaker 1: me money. You've got a mobile athletic quarterback, and don't

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Speaker 1: tell me Russ is cooked and he's washed and he

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Speaker 1: can't run. He can run and scramble. Is he as

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Speaker 1: mobile as he was five years ago? Of course nobody is.

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Speaker 1: Nobody is. But why are you dropping back on fourth

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Speaker 1: and one inside the tent? They knew it was going

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Speaker 1: to Sutton. Russ had the laser focus on Sutton. He

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Speaker 1: had kJ Hamler wide open on the right side. All

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Speaker 1: the screen grabs are floating around. I put it on

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Speaker 1: my Instagram last night. Hamdler shook his cornerback and when

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Speaker 1: I had that had he was wide open on the slant,

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Speaker 1: put his hand up, took off his helmet, slammed it down.

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Speaker 1: After the game, he was piste and he had a

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Speaker 1: right to beat. The safety knew it was going to Sutton,

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Speaker 1: knew it, read it and um the cornerback Gilmore made

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Speaker 1: a really nice play, folks. This is one of these

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Speaker 1: gut losses. You Russell Wilson's gonna have to man up

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Speaker 1: and uh This is tough. This is really tough for

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. I don't want to pile on. He's not

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Speaker 1: had a rough start again. I don't know have any

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Speaker 1: more games. I can say, new head coach, new offensive coordinator.

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Speaker 1: But Russ Bro, you gotta do better. All right, Without

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Speaker 1: further ado, let's get to our guest, Patrick Everson of

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Speaker 1: Vegas Insider and Fox Sports dot Com. Jason likes to

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Speaker 1: think he knows everything when it comes to sports. I

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Speaker 1: know what sports dance want, but for everything he doesn't.

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Speaker 1: He knows a guy who does. Let's just say I

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Speaker 1: know a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's welcome into straight fire. A guy I've

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Speaker 1: known for a little while. Talk started talking to him

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Speaker 1: a couple of years ago. He he's been in Vegas

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Speaker 1: for over twenty five years, I think twenty eight years now.

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Speaker 1: He does stuff for Vegas Insider dot com and of

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Speaker 1: course you know Fox Sports Digital, Patrick Everson, Patrick, how

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Speaker 1: you doing, man? I'm doing great, Jason. Really appreciate the

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Speaker 1: opportunity to hang out with you for a few Yeah. Well,

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Speaker 1: we try to bring on a gambler every week. Uh,

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Speaker 1: somebody who works behind the counter. We try to mix

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Speaker 1: it up, and you've you've found this awesome space Patrick,

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Speaker 1: kind of in between the big money gamblers and behind

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Speaker 1: the counter, and you're kind of like, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: you tell the temperature of what's going on every week,

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Speaker 1: and it's kind of an invaluable thing. You found it.

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Speaker 1: You kind of created a niche. I like it. I

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Speaker 1: feel like I have. I hope I have. It seems

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Speaker 1: like it gets pretty good response and I think I

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Speaker 1: never really thought of it like that, But that's a

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Speaker 1: perfect way to describe it. I'm kind of between those two.

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Speaker 1: Not know not only the big betters, but you know

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Speaker 1: where the sharp money is going and where the average

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Speaker 1: Joe's I mean, I'm an average Joe. I don't tell

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Speaker 1: anybody like, hey, I'm sharp because I cover this now.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sharp. I'm I I make I make heart

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Speaker 1: based play sometimes or plus money plays that I shouldn't.

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Speaker 1: I take every Super Bowl I bet that there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a safety and over time, I mean I'm out

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Speaker 1: there to have fun with it too. But um, I

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Speaker 1: think that's a great way to describe it as kind

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Speaker 1: of between where all the betting action is big, small,

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Speaker 1: sharp public and in between and what they're seeing behind

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Speaker 1: you know, what they're seeing and saying to me behind

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Speaker 1: the count. It's a fun I think, the really fun space. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: if you call yourself sharp, you're not sharp, right, I

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Speaker 1: think that's generally but I will say, Patrick, so you know,

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Speaker 1: we'll get into your background in a sect. But for instance,

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Speaker 1: last week in the NFL, the perceived sharps or the

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Speaker 1: wise guys or whatever you want to call them, they

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Speaker 1: got kind of crushed and the books won the house one.

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Speaker 1: The public did well. I'm in one of those, uh

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Speaker 1: you know, the pickup contests in Vegas, and like the

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Speaker 1: most popular picks went four and one. I had my

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Speaker 1: worst week at one, three and one. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what that says about me. Maybe it was an off week.

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Speaker 1: But Patrick, historically, and again I don't have any hardcore

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Speaker 1: data to back this up. The week after the public wins,

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Speaker 1: usually it's a bloodbat the other way because the books

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Speaker 1: make some corrections. Um, I'm curious, bird's eye view, what

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Speaker 1: are you seeing this week in the NFL? Any big moves,

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Speaker 1: any big changes line wise? Well, I mean I'm going

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Speaker 1: through taking a peek at my article right now on

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Speaker 1: the of Vegas inside of dot com Odds and Action Report,

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Speaker 1: which uh, and and I've got some good stuff up

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Speaker 1: on Fox sports dot com. Two. As you noted, let

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Speaker 1: me back up a moment to what you said, the

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Speaker 1: first three weeks of the season felt very much in

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Speaker 1: the books favor. The public took a bath for three

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Speaker 1: weeks in the season. So the books, uh, the public

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Speaker 1: and therefore overall betters got some of that back last week.

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Speaker 1: Not necessarily the sharp players to your point, when you're

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Speaker 1: going one three and one in in your in your

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Speaker 1: contest plays. Um, So the books generally speaking, at least

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, actually lost last week first time this season. Um.

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Speaker 1: There's always some correction to the mean, and the public

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Speaker 1: money is always gonna outwigh the sharpney, by the way,

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Speaker 1: almost always gonna outwind the sharpey. It's very uh. The

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Speaker 1: only time it really doesn't, or at least one of

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Speaker 1: the times where it doesn't, is if public and the

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Speaker 1: sharp on sharps are on the same side, which is

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Speaker 1: a bookmaker's nightmare when everybody's going to run it the

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Speaker 1: same way with it. Although the sharps tenders run away

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Speaker 1: with it at a better number than the public public

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Speaker 1: gets too long to get on board. So it was

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Speaker 1: a loser generally speaking for the books last week and

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Speaker 1: a winner for the betters, but not necessarily for the

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Speaker 1: sharp players this week. I got a piece up this

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Speaker 1: morning on on Fox sports dot Com talking a little

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Speaker 1: bit about sharp play and where some of the early

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Speaker 1: money is going this week, on that the Cowboys are

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Speaker 1: a sharp play this week even though they won't really yes,

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Speaker 1: even though they want to have Dak Prescott back. And

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Speaker 1: contrary to the movement of this line, this has gone

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Speaker 1: from I believe Rams uh five up to I think

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Speaker 1: some places actually saw six and a half, um maybe

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Speaker 1: six six now, but the lines kind of moved a

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Speaker 1: little bit toward the Rams, perhaps on the Prescott news

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Speaker 1: that he's not gonna play, but uh John Manica behind

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Speaker 1: a counter Windbett told me he said the Rams on

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Speaker 1: short rest and the Dallas styles certainly comfort betters taking

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Speaker 1: dog here. Um. He said, we may see more professional

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Speaker 1: money come in on the Cowboys, but the ticket account

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Speaker 1: is favoring the Rams, and generally if there's a heavier

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Speaker 1: ticket account, that's generally an indicator where the public is.

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Speaker 1: He said, look that you know he thinks it's going

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Speaker 1: to develop in a kind of a prose versus Joe's game,

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Speaker 1: where the sharp side is gonna be Dallas in the

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Speaker 1: public side is gonna be the Rams. And with that

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Speaker 1: being said, there's a good chance that the book will,

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Speaker 1: as a generally is be on the sharp side and

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Speaker 1: need Dallas in that game? Got you? So? I had

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Speaker 1: somebody just asked me this week, a guy I've known

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Speaker 1: for a while on social media. Uh, let me read

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Speaker 1: his exact question. You know, Jason, what sites or apps

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Speaker 1: do you use to track line movement, percentage of money, bets, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: And I told the guy, like, you know, I did

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Speaker 1: that like four years ago, and I thought there was

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Speaker 1: like a little bit of an edge. But I feel

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Speaker 1: like everybody does that now, Patrick, and that edge is evaporated.

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Speaker 1: So I don't even look that stuff up. That being said,

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Speaker 1: I do read your articles and I notice it's like

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Speaker 1: a big talking point for a lot of people. I'm

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Speaker 1: curious where you stand on the bet percentages and the

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Speaker 1: ticket counts and all that fun stuff. Well, look, first off,

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Speaker 1: it's something that people really enjoy seeing, so out of

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Speaker 1: mind sticking in that space, people like to see it. Now,

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Speaker 1: I feel like wherever possible, and I do this more

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Speaker 1: and more, but there are some books that just don't

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Speaker 1: want to put this kind of information out. But wherever possible,

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Speaker 1: I am getting quotes from behind the counter to back

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Speaker 1: these numbers up, to lend some credence to these numbers,

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Speaker 1: or to even say, look, we understand what the numbers done,

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Speaker 1: but here's what's actually happened. So I think a good

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Speaker 1: example of that is what I got from wind Bet

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Speaker 1: last night. On this Cowboys Rams game. You know, you

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Speaker 1: see the line go up to Rams six or six

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Speaker 1: and a half. I'm not sure exactly what it's sitting

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Speaker 1: at right now, but and you might think, okay, people

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Speaker 1: are on the Rams this week, and they are the

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Speaker 1: public is Steff. You know, there's there's gonna be plenty

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Speaker 1: of tickets on the Rams as we're thinking they're in

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Speaker 1: a bounced back spot so forth. And you know, how

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Speaker 1: long can Dallas keep this going with with the Cooper

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Speaker 1: Rushes the starting quarterback. But if I just give the

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Speaker 1: splits there, that's you know, that doesn't necessarily tell the story.

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Speaker 1: When John Manicas says to me, uh Dak officially ruled

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Speaker 1: out again, This speak is no surprise however, Dallas Cowboys

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Speaker 1: three and one, that is a surprise. He said. The

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Speaker 1: Cowboys are rattle out free ruins in a road of

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Speaker 1: the early action. It's heavy on the Cowboys. We have

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Speaker 1: taken two bets from respected parties sharp vetters, one of

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Speaker 1: plus six very early and the other plus five and

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Speaker 1: a half. So, uh, you know that's I'm trying wherever

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Speaker 1: I can. I can't always do this, and I agree

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Speaker 1: with you the month, the numbers, percentages and so forth

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Speaker 1: don't necessarily they shouldn't be like a deciding factor necessarily.

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Speaker 1: And how you bet. If it's if you've got a

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Speaker 1: whole bunch of things lining up one way and you're

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Speaker 1: looking for one more piece to maybe help you make

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Speaker 1: a decision, I feel like it's good. Or if you're

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Speaker 1: just kind of interested in that stuff, then I think

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Speaker 1: it's good. But like I said, I'm trying to buy

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Speaker 1: context of these when I can as well, and uh,

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Speaker 1: which I hope is helpful. I can't always do that

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Speaker 1: because there are some books that want to divulge more

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Speaker 1: of this and from ation that others. Um Circuits Sports

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Speaker 1: is a fantastic book. Very sharp, They take sharp money,

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Speaker 1: they take high volume, sharp money, you know, high amounts

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Speaker 1: of sharp money. Um. But they don't really want to

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Speaker 1: talk about that, and that's fine, that's their model. They

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Speaker 1: don't really want to get into whether their need or

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Speaker 1: liability is, or who's on wad or how big a

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Speaker 1: bet might have come in on a certain side. UM

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Speaker 1: and others are are are more open to discussing those things.

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Speaker 1: So UM and a lot of people think it's just

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Speaker 1: a for for promotional tool. Perhaps it is. But some

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Speaker 1: of these sources I've got, I've had for many years,

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Speaker 1: and they weren't you know, they're not out, you know,

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Speaker 1: they're not calling me saying hey, I got stuff to

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Speaker 1: tell you. It's it's me pursuing them and them being

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Speaker 1: open enough, as as as good sources that I've developed

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Speaker 1: over a long period of time to give me what

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Speaker 1: I think is credible, timely, interesting, and in many cases,

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Speaker 1: actionable information. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk

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Speaker 1: lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at

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Speaker 1: Fox sports Radio dot com and within the I Heart

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Speaker 1: Radio app search f s R to listen live Now.

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Speaker 1: You did mention respected better and we did have a

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Speaker 1: bookmaker on a couple of weeks ago, I bet the

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Speaker 1: guy from bet online, and I love the I love

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Speaker 1: when these guys do this. It's not just him, it's everybody. Hey,

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Speaker 1: we just took a seventy five dollar bet on I'm

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Speaker 1: just making this up the Vikings against the Bears this weekend. Right.

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Speaker 1: My first question is, hey, that that's that's good, that's great.

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Speaker 1: Did you move the line? That's all I want to know.

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Speaker 1: But the general public doesn't seem to ask that because like, oh,

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Speaker 1: seven five thou dollars on Vikings, that's a big bet.

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Speaker 1: If it didn't move the line, I don't care, you know,

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Speaker 1: because that means it's just some guy with a lot

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Speaker 1: of money, and books are reluctant to like come out

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Speaker 1: and say that because they don't want to make the

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Speaker 1: guy look bad or whatever. Some of these guys are

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Speaker 1: on social media. I'm curious, do you ask that question?

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Speaker 1: And if you do, do they answer it? Or are

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Speaker 1: they are people not willing to answer that? Uh, it's

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Speaker 1: probably a lot of times to get I'll get informed

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Speaker 1: about large bets um and I do always try to ask,

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Speaker 1: especially if I mean, ticket account is one thing, but

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Speaker 1: money isn't number another. And if you're if I'm getting

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Speaker 1: one of my releases from say Draftings or Points Bet

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Speaker 1: or Caesar's or Bet MGM or whoever, and the money

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Speaker 1: is skewed significantly more than the ticket count or even

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Speaker 1: the ticket account is like seventy five percent on one

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Speaker 1: side and the money is seventy five or eighty or

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Speaker 1: ninety percent on the other. To me, that's almost a

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Speaker 1: sure sign that somebody big came in and and one

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Speaker 1: big bet is what's skewing that number. And that happens

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Speaker 1: every week. And I asked about those so that and

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Speaker 1: in some cases I'm kind of told on background and

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Speaker 1: I can work it into my story, my article or

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Speaker 1: my video or whatever kind of subtly I'll say, well,

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Speaker 1: there was a significant you know, the Raiders are or

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Speaker 1: rather the Chiefs are getting bets at bet MGM the

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Speaker 1: bat Uh. But there was a significant six figure wager

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Speaker 1: on the Raiders, and so the Raiders are seeing of

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Speaker 1: money at bet M JAM Nevada. But that's almost entirely

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Speaker 1: due to this significant six figure back. And say it's

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Speaker 1: two ars something like that, which skews the number um

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Speaker 1: and that happens a lot. That that's happening a fair

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Speaker 1: amount this season here in Vegas at at bet MGM

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Speaker 1: specifically where I get some of this information. And then

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Speaker 1: I'll go and look at bet M Jim's national picture,

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Speaker 1: which they also send out, and oftentimes there will be

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Speaker 1: a big difference there they the game will actually be

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Speaker 1: a much more close to way, or or maybe there

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Speaker 1: is actually it lines up more the way you think

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Speaker 1: it would with the team having the most tickets also

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Speaker 1: having significantly more money. So I do try to ask

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Speaker 1: about those things, um and I do try to find

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Speaker 1: out where I can. And again this is a matter

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Speaker 1: of what books are willing to bulge or not to folge.

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Speaker 1: But if let's say let's say everybody's on the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: this week, let's how hypothetical, and everybody will be a

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Speaker 1: chief by the way the public will be anyway. But

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Speaker 1: let's just say that this went from seven chiefs to

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Speaker 1: eight and a half, and I put something out, this

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Speaker 1: is the Chiefs from seven to eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: Will look, that doesn't mean you should get on the chiefs.

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Speaker 1: You're losing all that value. That one and a half

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Speaker 1: points is a super important one and a half points.

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Speaker 1: So I tried to note that at least and then

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Speaker 1: if the oddsmakers providing that information is pulling into the Volge,

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Speaker 1: I can say, hey, where did you see the bulk

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Speaker 1: of that money? Was that at seven? Was it at

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Speaker 1: seven and a half? At eight? What are you seeing

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Speaker 1: at eight and a half? And again, oddsmakers are finicky

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Speaker 1: on this. Some we're willing to tell you, some are not,

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Speaker 1: but some will and they'll be like, hey, yeah, it

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Speaker 1: was definitely at seven and seven and a half. And

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Speaker 1: you know, then the public is kind of come in

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Speaker 1: afterwards and taken eight and eight and a half, gotten

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Speaker 1: the worst of the numbers, gott Key numbers, all that. So, um,

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Speaker 1: I'm working on doing more of that, recognizing that then

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Speaker 1: that it's important as much as I can to give

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Speaker 1: context context even though a lot of people just want

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Speaker 1: the splits, I just want to that's all they want.

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Speaker 1: They want the splits and they want the picks. Um,

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Speaker 1: well let's go to a quick pick. So I am

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Speaker 1: on the Saints this week. I was betting on their injuries,

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Speaker 1: guys getting healthier, returning. They're missing a lot of starters

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Speaker 1: from the London game. I think it's a bad travel

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Speaker 1: spot for Seattle. I know Saints will come back from London. Um,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead and guess slash hope that the

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Speaker 1: public is on Seattle, which looked awesome last week against

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Speaker 1: Detroit and scored a lot of points against Atlanta, and

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Speaker 1: Gino Smith's getting a parade on TV because he's the

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Speaker 1: highest passer rating or whatever. Crap. Where what are you

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Speaker 1: seeing public sharp split on the game? I'm seeing, uh,

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Speaker 1: five and a half Saints right now. Yeah, and I

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Speaker 1: think you're right. Actually, I think this is based on

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Speaker 1: the numbers I'm seeing. I haven't got a comment on

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Speaker 1: this or reached out to anybody on this yet, but

401
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 1: I'm looking at some very current splits, like probably to

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Speaker 1: the minute or at least within a few minutes. And

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Speaker 1: uh it literally almost four to one tickets and almost

404
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Speaker 1: two to one money on Seattle on the road catching

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Speaker 1: five and half depending on what. I broke this down

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Speaker 1: a little longer yesterday, So if you guys missed it,

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00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,400
Speaker 1: go check it out, obviously, But I just want to say,

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Speaker 1: the only time Seattle has played a real defense outside

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Speaker 1: of the opener, you know, against Denver, they play San

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Speaker 1: Francisco and could not move the ball. They had zero

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Speaker 1: points offensively. It was scored on special teams. I think

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Speaker 1: they blocked the kick this this this team like they

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Speaker 1: so what they moved the ball on bad teams, like

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Speaker 1: the Saints have a really good defense, and oh, by

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Speaker 1: the way, they're playing at home and it looks like

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Speaker 1: Camara's back, So I think this is the same smash spot.

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Speaker 1: Is that something you'd agree on, Patrick, I think I would.

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Speaker 1: I hadn't really been thinking about that game. My my

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Speaker 1: report that step on Vegas inside er and some of

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Speaker 1: the notes that I have in my in my article

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Speaker 1: today at article this week midwek article at Fox sports

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Speaker 1: dot Com didn't touch on that game, So I wasn't

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Speaker 1: really looking at it. But you've kind of swayed me

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Speaker 1: a little bit to the point where not only am

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Speaker 1: I think Saints, um, well, yeah, I'm thinking Saints, But

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Speaker 1: what I might want to do on that is, um

427
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 1: is maybe see if I mean sts lane five and

428
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,719
Speaker 1: a half lane six, what I might want to do

429
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 1: on that And this is something I kind of like

430
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 1: to do sometimes when I when I don't necessarily want

431
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,160
Speaker 1: to give up close to a touchdown. Cef se Alan

432
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 1: gets the opening kick and finds a way to score

433
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,439
Speaker 1: a field goal on the first trip, and then I

434
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 1: love jumping in in game and just getting a little

435
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 1: bit better number. Um, you know, I tried. I tried

436
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 1: and failed at this uh in the money. I think

437
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:34,880
Speaker 1: it was the Monday Night game. It was the Monday

438
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 1: Night game. The total went down to thirty nine and

439
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,360
Speaker 1: a half at one point, and I'm like, okay, I

440
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 1: think I like the over now when it closed at

441
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:44,920
Speaker 1: forty two forty two and a half or whatever it did.

442
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 1: So I got the best of the number and I

443
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 1: lost it damp bet unfortunately, because the Rams couldn't score

444
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 1: any touchdown. I mean, if the Rams get one touchdown,

445
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 1: that that cash is thirty nights and a half. But

446
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 1: but yeah, that's something I like to do. Is just

447
00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 1: kind of if I'm not really keen on lay close

448
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 1: to a touchdown or more, I like to do that.

449
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,400
Speaker 1: Or if there's a team that I kind of really like, um,

450
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 1: I might take them on an ultimate spread to get

451
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,159
Speaker 1: a better price if I really think they're gonna go

452
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 1: in and and do more damage than what the spread

453
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 1: might indicate, and then I might take an alter. But

454
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: if I thought the Seahawks went on the money line,

455
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 1: I might do that. But I don't think the Seats

456
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 1: are winning that game, and I don't know I don't think.

457
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 1: I don't think they're covering either, but I would just

458
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 1: I'd be more at to see how the first driver

459
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 1: two one folds and see if I can get in

460
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 1: game for a little bit better numbers. All Right, this

461
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 1: one probably does not have a lot of bets on

462
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 1: it because it's a terrible game. But I see a

463
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: little edge here for Washington at home against Tennessee. UM. Obviously,

464
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,919
Speaker 1: Tennessee really good as a dog. They've proven that this

465
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 1: year as a favorite. They also showed that, uh in

466
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 1: the opener against the Giants. Uh. You know, I'm just

467
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 1: not a true believer in this Tennessee. I know they're

468
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 1: like the leading scoring team in the first quarter. UM,

469
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 1: but again no pass rush. I know they beat up

470
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 1: on the Cults, but the Cults are really bad. UM.

471
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 1: And I think there could be some value in Washington here.

472
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 1: They do have a top five run defense. Tennessee. We

473
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: know runs of football. Um, Tennessee all of a sudden

474
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 1: laying a number on the road. UM. Are you seeing

475
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 1: any money coming in on either side? Or is this

476
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,880
Speaker 1: game so bad nobody's touching it? I don't, I don't.

477
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 1: I would bet that it's not a high volume game

478
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,479
Speaker 1: of the volume that's there, it's it's it's certainly trending

479
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: towards the tits, especially ticket acount. Ticket account is pretty lopsided.

480
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: I'm looking at Draft Kings numbers right now, for example,

481
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 1: and take account is five to one on Tennessee money,

482
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: but money is less than two to one, and I

483
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 1: think that's a little bit telling. Um so, so, granted,

484
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: the Commander has only taken seventeen percent of tickets, seventy

485
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 1: percent of bets made, and only thirty seven percent of money.

486
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 1: But the first one, did you just say so? A

487
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 1: D three percent of the tickets are on Tennessee eight

488
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 1: three six at Draft Draft eight okay, at Draft Kings. Right,

489
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 1: So a D twenty is usually the split where I

490
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 1: think you it makes sense, right, sixty forty no big deal,

491
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 1: se But a D twenty feels significant, right, And I

492
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 1: think it is. But I do think it's telling when

493
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 1: you get, like you said, four to one or more

494
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 1: or more, I do think that's telling. But I also

495
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 1: think there's something to be read into. And this is

496
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 1: where I think the splits can sometimes help a little bit.

497
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 1: I'm not saying rely on these to make your bets.

498
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 1: I'm saying it's a it's an interesting piece of information

499
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 1: that might help them for me. But when they're getting

500
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 1: three percent of bets but they're only taking sixtent of money,

501
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 1: I feel like there's something there that says, uh, there,

502
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 1: that there's something going on with the with with with

503
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,159
Speaker 1: the other team there in this case, the Commanders. I

504
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 1: feel like there's something there, And I don't disagree with you. Patrick.

505
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 1: Are you seeing over tickets from any sports book at

506
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 1: any in any other game this weekend? Let's well, let's

507
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: just since I've got d K up on my screen,

508
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 1: I'm gonna look at that first, and then I'll look

509
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 1: at and then literally, uh oh you could you You

510
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 1: don't have to actually ask them for all these They

511
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: give you access that you could just see. I get.

512
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 1: I get. First off, d K has got a screen

513
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,440
Speaker 1: I can check out, and I'll give you guys a

514
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: little tip. It's a visa's website. So wait, hold on,

515
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 1: hold on, Can anybody just go there? Anybody can go

516
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 1: and look at this. Okay VSN dot Com? Alright, god,

517
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 1: you got it, you gott they have a betting splitsa.

518
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 1: Now the rest of it, I get and several other

519
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 1: media types get stuff sent to us from like points

520
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: Bet and Caesar's and Bet MGM and so forth. So,

521
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: uh so I leaned into those looking at DraftKings. Right now,

522
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 1: Tennessee is the only team this week with more than

523
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 1: with or more of tickets on the spread so far.

524
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,360
Speaker 1: A couple of close the Seahawks, I don't hit that,

525
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 1: but I'm with you on that. Niners at seventy nine, um,

526
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 1: coming off a big win. Now now a long road trip,

527
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 1: which I think is interesting. Hold on, hold on, Patrick,

528
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:43,479
Speaker 1: that's three road teams that are favorites and the public

529
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 1: is all over them. Well, actually, ye are underdog. I'm sorry.

530
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 1: Tennessee is a road favorite. Forty nine is a big

531
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,639
Speaker 1: road favorite. Interesting. Interesting, and then you've got the Chiefs

532
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 1: after that at seventy of tickets percent of money. That's

533
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: kind of lined up, so the money is really is

534
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 1: definitely Chiefs. So those are the three that I'm seeing

535
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 1: right now that are from Draft Kings. But I'm gonna

536
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: take a peek at, uh um, what else I've got.

537
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 1: You know, and Draft Kings is usually a fair indicator

538
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 1: because they operate so many states that you know, you

539
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: can you know that the that those are a good

540
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: indication of how things are going, even at other books,

541
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 1: but only a couple of teams really seeing that kind

542
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: of ticket count. And to your point, it is kind

543
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: of interesting that two of them are our road favorites, Um,

544
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 1: and the other one. I'm with you on the Saints.

545
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 1: I just I would just like a little bit better numbers,

546
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 1: so I might I might keep an eye on that

547
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 1: come Sunday morning here in Vegas and and see if

548
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 1: I can set can go down, get a field goal,

549
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 1: get me the Saints at like four or something. Ye

550
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 1: are you able to see why or when the Ravens

551
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 1: went from three to three and a half against the

552
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,160
Speaker 1: Bengals Because I got them on Wednesday at Ravens minus three,

553
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: I'm now seeing three and a half, and it's you know,

554
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 1: obviously the Bengals kicked their asked twice last year by

555
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 1: a lot. Um. Ravens have I think only trail for

556
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:02,119
Speaker 1: teen seconds this season, or maybe it was in the

557
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 1: two losses they've only trail for fourteen seconds. I think

558
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: they're undervalued, and I think the Bengals have not looked

559
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: particularly sharp. Um. But the line the move in a

560
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 1: divisional game from three to three and a half was

561
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 1: kind of interesting to me. Did you see anything there? Uh,

562
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: not anything fresh on this yet, but obviously, uh, super

563
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 1: key game. And I'm going into my uh my article

564
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: real quick because that was the Bengals Ravens game is

565
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: a really key game. It's like it's a sun Yeah,

566
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,880
Speaker 1: it's the Sunday night, Sunday night. Yeah. I mean it's

567
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 1: we're jumping in a little early because everybody's gonna roll

568
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 1: final bets into that, right, Parlay's teasers everything, right, Well,

569
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 1: this was one that every every Sunday night. I talked

570
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 1: with John Murray, go back and forth with John Murray,

571
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: who was the executive director of the super book, um

572
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: certainly one of the more respected books, and he gives

573
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 1: me some insights on like half a dozen of the

574
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 1: next week's games. Opening line, what's happening early, maybe what

575
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,959
Speaker 1: he thinks may happen later, And he noted they actually

576
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 1: opened three and a half and they got sharp play

577
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 1: on the Bengals right out of the gate. Ultimately went

578
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 1: down to three Monday. So I think that's what you have.

579
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 1: There is just a resistance point on both sides. Better stop.

580
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 1: The Bengals were a good play at plus uh at

581
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 1: plus three and a half and to the point where

582
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 1: it went down to three, and that's where Ravens better

583
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 1: has got interested and moved it back to three and

584
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 1: a half. So you got in on that middle ground

585
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 1: and you got you know, you got the better than number,

586
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 1: especially closes three and a half, which I think it

587
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: will um or. I mean maybe it goes higher. I

588
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: don't know, but um I I do think getting in

589
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 1: at three on the Ravens is a good number there.

590
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 1: And I agree with you anglees have not looked good

591
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 1: and that the Ravens are peeved that they really blew

592
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 1: a golden opportunity last week. Uh could have absolutely won

593
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 1: that game. What's the game you'd like best this weekend?

594
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 1: Patrick nfl Or, I'll let you go to college if

595
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: you want. I do have a go actually before you

596
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 1: get to that. Steelers Bills. Um. It's a bit of

597
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 1: a weird spot for the Bills. They had the Ravens

598
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 1: last week, tough second half comeback. They have the Chiefs

599
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 1: next week in a rematch of the last two playoff games,

600
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: and of course the potential preview of the a f

601
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 1: C JP Chips store. Um. But this week they have

602
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 1: the Steelers and a rookie quarterback at home. They're laying fourteen,

603
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 1: biggest number I think we've seen this season. Um, I'm

604
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: staying away from this game entirely. I there's probably too

605
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 1: much variants involved with Pickett and Newness. Um, Tomlin is

606
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: a dog, YadA, YadA, YadA. But what are you seeing

607
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 1: on this one? Right? And I agree with you. I

608
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: think this is a total stay away. And there was

609
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 1: a really interesting stat that came out this week, UM

610
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 1: from Mackenzie Kramer over the ESPN ESPN Stats and Info.

611
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 1: This is the bill are rather, the Steelers are the

612
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: only team since the n f L NFL merger to

613
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: never be an underdog of fourteen or more points until now,

614
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: which is an amazing static every other team and you know,

615
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: you and I both several of these teams have been

616
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: fourteen point underdogs many many times. Uh, the Steelers have

617
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: never been a fourteen under point underdog in fifty two

618
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: years or whatever it is. So, UM, I'll tell you,

619
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 1: it seems pretty stuck at fourteen, like nobody really wants

620
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 1: to go either way on this, And I can see why.

621
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I feel like it's kind of a

622
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: stay away game. And I'm actually gonna take a peek

623
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: here at at at d k's latest numbers. It's yeah,

624
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 1: it's I mean it's a two way action, lean towards

625
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 1: the lean towards the Steelers, people taking the fifth the

626
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: fourteen points. But of spread betscent of spread money early.

627
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 1: You know, this is Thursday, still considered early. All the

628
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 1: money comes out Sunday on these games. Um, so it's a.

629
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 1: It's a. It's a. It's a light pot compared to

630
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 1: what it's gonna be. It's it's tough. Yeah, on a Thursday,

631
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 1: it's tough. But one more before we get to your

632
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 1: bet your picks. UM. I am a Jets fan. Um,

633
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 1: they're two and two. I know they have two lucky wins.

634
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: That being said, good spot at home, Teddy Bridgewater. Um,

635
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: Dolphins second straight road game. I went to the Visa

636
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: in site. You mentioned, I'm seeing handle nine on Miami,

637
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 1: So to me, that's kind of sort of insane. I

638
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 1: don't know who these people are. Nine of the people

639
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: are taking the Dolphin on the road. By the way,

640
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 1: the Dolphins injury report is like all their cornerbacks are out.

641
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 1: I'm not saying Zach Wilson cold tread, but I'm just saying,

642
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 1: if Howard's not out there, we know, um what's his

643
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 1: names on the pupulist Byron Jones, like Garrett Wilson, Corey

644
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: Davis should have some success. I at three and a half,

645
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna take the Jets. I don't think

646
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 1: that's a bad play. And but but this is one

647
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 1: of those ones where my INTENDA would go up a

648
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: little bit and say, Okay, tickets are two to one

649
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: money nine to one? Did they did? Did Draft Kings

650
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: see something significant there that that is skewing that Did

651
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: they see oh, you know, uh, twenty thousand or fifty

652
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 1: thousand dollar play. That's a possibility. Now it may not

653
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 1: have happened, but it's a possibility. And I'm actually checking

654
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: this is from this is from midweek, so it's a

655
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: it's about, you know, twenty four hours old. However, all

656
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: the money's coming in later in the week, so this

657
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 1: is still gonna be kind of representative. I'm checking with

658
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 1: points at USA on that game, and it's heavy to

659
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 1: my but not skewed quite that much. Tickets about three

660
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 1: to one, money about four to one, which is still significant,

661
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 1: but uh, not quite as heavy as draft So maybe

662
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 1: is there a chance that people were dummying up the

663
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: Dolphins early in the week, lower limits to get it

664
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 1: off the three up to three and a half, and

665
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: now you get the hook and the Jets at home

666
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: limits are raised on Friday Saturday, you come back bigger

667
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: on the Jets. Is that a potential set up? Do

668
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 1: you see that a lot? Have you seen? Do you

669
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: see any last week or any recently? Do you I

670
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: don't know that. I don't specifically see it, but I

671
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: hear about it regularly, so I you know, there are

672
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 1: that those kinds of things do happen. I don't know

673
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: if it would happen here, but but it might. Um

674
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 1: the skew and the numbers there seems interesting, especially now

675
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 1: that you're at three and a half and uh, you know,

676
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 1: whether the Jets got lucky or not. I mean, they

677
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: got two fourth quarter touchdowns last week and then and

678
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: they want on the road and it's hard to win

679
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: on the road in the NFL, um you know, and

680
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 1: that's that's been prough a case. See looks like a beast,

681
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 1: but and one on the road last week against you know, uh,

682
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 1: a pretty good defense in Tampa. But the week before

683
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 1: they went on the road and lost in Indie, and

684
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 1: the jury is totally out on Indie. Now, I I

685
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 1: thought they would be better, and so it's you know,

686
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 1: that's not to compare the Jets to the Chiefs of

687
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 1: the Box. I'm not trying to do that at all.

688
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 1: I'm just pointing out that, you know, getting a road win,

689
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 1: coming getting two touchdowns from the fourth quarter to do it,

690
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 1: it's not something to just or you don't want. You

691
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 1: shouldn't overlook that. So I feel like this is way

692
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 1: too stewed. And if you're gonna give me three, and

693
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 1: if you're saying, okay, have this game, then I'm gonna

694
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: take three and a half with the Jets for sure.

695
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 1: I got it, all right, Patrick, Now onto your picks.

696
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 1: Do you have anything that you've bet college, NFL Parlay's teasers,

697
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 1: total sides, props, whatever. I'm definitely intrigued by that Sunday

698
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 1: night game. I really, you know, if if it looks

699
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: like there may if there's still any you know, if

700
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 1: threes come back on the Ravens, I'm not sure if

701
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: I'd have to double check my books, but if three

702
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 1: comes back on the Ravens, EI think guy like that,

703
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: and I might even like to do this another thing

704
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 1: I like. I think I mentioned it a little bit earlier.

705
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 1: I like to let this play out a little bit

706
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 1: in game, uh, to potentially get a better number or pregame.

707
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: I like looking at the ultimate spreads if I think

708
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: a team is going to be better. I just feel

709
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 1: like the Ravets are good this week. UM, So I

710
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 1: might look to take on an alternate spread, just a flyer.

711
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 1: I'm not saying I'm not saying this is sharp or

712
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 1: smart or anything. But I might take right with my

713
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 1: seven and I might take Chiefs ten or ten and

714
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: a half. I feel like Kansas City is going to

715
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 1: be ready for this, and it's it's not I'm just

716
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:36,360
Speaker 1: saying it's something that I like, that fun. I'm not

717
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: saying it's the sharp thing to do, the smart thing

718
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,240
Speaker 1: to do. I don't think it's a bad that necessarily

719
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 1: the Ravets game. I just feel like they're gonna be

720
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,240
Speaker 1: good this week. I feel like they're gonna be peeved

721
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 1: that they blew an opportunity there at home. Again. To

722
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 1: your point, Cincinnati hasn't looked particularly good this season. Um.

723
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 1: The NFC North is ur af C North rather is

724
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 1: totally up for grabs and somebody needs to kind of

725
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: start taking control. And I think this is a spot

726
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: where the Rabbits could do it. So I might look

727
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: at an alternate line, you know, six six and a

728
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 1: half seven. I don't really want to do seven, but

729
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: maybe six six and a half and hope the Ravens

730
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 1: win by a touchdown and uh and pay me out

731
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 1: a nice little chunk more than I would if I

732
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: take Ravens three three and a half. That's a tough one. Um.

733
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 1: I don't know. I will do a lot more on

734
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: the Monday game. But it watching Chiefs, uh Tampa, it

735
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 1: looked like they were ready for Super Bowl revenge. They

736
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 1: called all the good plays. I mean, they ruled, they dominated.

737
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: I don't like taking teams off dominating performances. Um, that's

738
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: the only reason divisional. Um. So, do you do any Survivor?

739
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 1: Are you in that big Survivor contest or? I didn't

740
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 1: do it. I did not do Survivor this year. I

741
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 1: might try it next year. The only one I'm in

742
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: this year is uh fun one that my buddy and

743
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 1: I teamed up on him. That's the new one from

744
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 1: the super book. That was uh pick every team's over

745
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: under uh, and that was a lot of fun. You know,

746
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 1: I I don't know how the hell we're gonna do.

747
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 1: Probably not very good, but I haven't even looked lately

748
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 1: to see I'm actually trying to grab my sheet and

749
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 1: see if I've got it here. But we did over

750
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,359
Speaker 1: under on every team. I thought that was a fun

751
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 1: one where you literally have action every week, but you

752
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 1: get it out of the way right before the season

753
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 1: starts and then you just you your bat so to speak,

754
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 1: is rolling all season long. So that was kind of

755
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 1: a fun one that I thought would be interesting to

756
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 1: try this season. Haven't done a super contest and and

757
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 1: the circuit. I haven't done Circuits Survivor yet, but I've

758
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 1: done the Circuit Millions a couple of times. Um. I

759
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 1: just thought this would be a fun new one to

760
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 1: try out on these over unders teams and see how

761
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 1: it goes. But all of them are assuming you have

762
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 1: the over on the Eagles, because that's that's that's looking

763
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 1: like a good one. I think I've got the over

764
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,240
Speaker 1: on the Eagles. I think the biggest debate my buddy

765
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 1: and I had was on the was really on the

766
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 1: a f C West as a whole, and and it

767
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,640
Speaker 1: wasn't a big debate, but we felt. My buddy was like, hey,

768
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 1: I think you'd take all four of these teams to

769
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 1: go under. And I said, look, I agree with you

770
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: on the Raiders, the Chea, the Raiders, the Charters, and

771
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 1: the promost my deumber box. I'm like, I can go

772
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 1: there with you on that. If you'll allow us to

773
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: take the over on the Chiefs, I'm happy to wander

774
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:05,439
Speaker 1: in the other three because I think that the Vision

775
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 1: is going to completely cannibalize each other, and ultimately, I

776
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 1: think the Chiefs are the only team that can that

777
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 1: can survive such a cannibalization. So we took Chiefs over

778
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 1: and went under on the rest of the af C West,

779
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 1: which right now doesn't look too bad. It's great right now.

780
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 1: Congrats on that one. Drats on joining Fox, Patrick, You

781
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: guys gotta follow in. Patrick Everson gives out great stuff,

782
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 1: especially day of I know morning of out in l A,

783
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: people wake up, they're going to eat in their avocado

784
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 1: toast before the NFL games, and just knowing where what's

785
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 1: going on is awesome, dude. So keep up the good

786
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 1: work and congrats again. Patrick, Thank you very much. Jason

787
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 1: glad to join you. Fox Sports Radio has the best

788
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 1: sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our

789
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 1: shows at Fox sports Radio dot com and within the

790
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 1: I Heart Radio app. Search f s R to listen live.

791
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 1: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching

792
00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 1: the game. He's making money while you you a here's

793
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 1: your best bat. Great stuff from Patrick Everson. He's a

794
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: good follow on social media, but we brought him over

795
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:10,839
Speaker 1: to Fox. He's doing stuff for Fox Digital. Really good

796
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 1: guy and knows the NFL as well as anybody out

797
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 1: there in the desert. All right, let's get to a

798
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 1: couple of NFL picks for the weekend. So contest not

799
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 1: great last week one three and one. Still upset that

800
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: the Texans could not come in the back door late

801
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 1: and the Broncos I had. I didn't have a great

802
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 1: feeling about last week. I have a much better feeling,

803
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:32,759
Speaker 1: almost irrationally so about this week. I have like three

804
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,839
Speaker 1: plays that I feel like our number one contenders. Um,

805
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens. You could have got them at three

806
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 1: earlier this week. We talked about it. There. Now three

807
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 1: and a half in the contest, I think I sadly

808
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 1: have to take it is a Ravens team unbelievable stat

809
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 1: here in their two losses. Remember they led Miami almost

810
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 1: wired to wire, and then they did lead Buffalo wired

811
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: to wire. They've trailed for a total of fourteen seconds

812
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 1: in the two losses. They they're that close to four

813
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,359
Speaker 1: and oh they're getting healthier. Me Stanley looks like he's

814
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: gonna play his first game back. And again, this is

815
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 1: a Bengals team that I was selling before the season

816
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:08,879
Speaker 1: have not looked good at all. We did call their

817
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 1: spot last week against um Cincinnati on a Thursday night

818
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 1: football Cincinnati Dolphins. It was an easy one. That was

819
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 1: an easy one for since and they still struggled to

820
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: put him away. But bottom line, his teams are taking

821
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 1: away the explosive play from Joe Burrow. Remember last year

822
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 1: they murdered the Ravens in two games. Burrow had like

823
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 1: over nine yards passing and I think they won by

824
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: a combine like sixty points in both games. It was

825
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 1: it was just really embarrassing. Now one of them, Lamar

826
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 1: did not start. It was late in the season, but

827
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: that was also with Wink Martindale. And now he's no

828
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 1: longer the defensive coordinator there. He's with the Giants, So

829
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,800
Speaker 1: the new DC, it's an easy game plan. Play the

830
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 1: two high safeties, lock up with Peters and Humphrey, and

831
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 1: as long as you don't get them isolated and try

832
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 1: to blitz, you're gonna be fine. Because Burrow is clearly

833
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 1: not able to take advantage of what the defense is

834
00:39:57,760 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 1: giving him, and Zach Taylor's calling bad games. I like

835
00:39:59,920 --> 00:40:01,839
Speaker 1: the Ravens a lot at three, like I'm a little

836
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: less than three and a half, but I still think

837
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:06,399
Speaker 1: Baltimore has some value. I think they're the side here

838
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 1: for sure. I I've already talked a lot about the

839
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 1: Saints got him at five with some Jews of their

840
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 1: five and a half. I think the Saints of the

841
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 1: side of your guys. Seattle talked about their travel spot.

842
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 1: I knew London is a is a big trip. Usually

843
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 1: teams want to buy after that, but it's it's becoming

844
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 1: clear that teams are looking at some data and saying,

845
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:27,480
Speaker 1: we don't need to buy. They're gonna give us a

846
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,439
Speaker 1: home game and our opponent will be in a tough

847
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 1: travel spot. That's the case for Seattle mentioned yesterday had

848
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 1: to fly to play Detroit, then flew home. Now another

849
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: cross country trip, this time to New Orleans, and if

850
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 1: you look at the injury reports, the Saints are getting healthier.

851
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: That's huge. Kamara looks like he will play, Michael Thomas

852
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:48,880
Speaker 1: doesn't won't play, and James Winston probably won't play. But

853
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 1: Olave will have help in the former Jervis Landry. I

854
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: like the Saints here. I think their defense comes up

855
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 1: fairly big. Again, it's a really overrated Seattle side. So

856
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,879
Speaker 1: two of my picks in the contest Ain't again five

857
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 1: and a half not great and Ravens three and a half.

858
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 1: I mentioned this one on Cowherd Show. This is not

859
00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:08,840
Speaker 1: gonna be popular. It's a hold your no special. This

860
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:12,839
Speaker 1: is a gross, gross bet. But the Washington Commanders money

861
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,359
Speaker 1: has come in this week on them. Yes, a lot

862
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 1: of it has to do with wait a minute, Tennessee's

863
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 1: favorite on the road. What what how? Tennessee obviously good

864
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:24,800
Speaker 1: as an underdog. We saw them last week against the

865
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 1: Colts come up big. Now it's a rivalry game in

866
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 1: the division. Verbel seems to own Frank Reich, but this

867
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 1: one is stepping out of the division into a desperate

868
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 1: wounded Washington team. Listen, Washington could do no right other

869
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: than stop the run, which is a good sign for

870
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. But I'm a believer in Washington here. I

871
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 1: think they stopped the run. I think the offense can

872
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 1: get just enough done. I know Dotson is not gonna play,

873
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 1: but I tried to go pick up Curtis Samuel and

874
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 1: a couple of fantasy leagues. Unbelievable, but Curtis Samuel is

875
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 1: not available. I think it's a big game for him.

876
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 1: Tennessee secondary is terrible, the pass rushes full. Uh, this

877
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:03,799
Speaker 1: is a Washington spot. I'll take him on the money line.

878
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 1: I'm not going survivor, but Washington is a play for me.

879
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:09,399
Speaker 1: We'll see about the contest. It's really tough to back

880
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 1: like Davis Mills, Justin Fields, Carson Wentz. There's a rough guys.

881
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 1: It's tough. Tampa Bay is a significant play for me

882
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 1: this weekend. Feeling like the Bucks are a massive step

883
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 1: up in class for the Falcons, having seen some pretty

884
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 1: bad teams, pretty bad quarterbacks, and now they go up

885
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 1: against Tom Brady and a Bucks team that got humiliated

886
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 1: on Sunday Night football. I got him at eight a half,

887
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 1: it's already up to nine. Would not be surprised I

888
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: think the heavy uh numbers betters will will not let

889
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,279
Speaker 1: this touch ten. But give me Tampa Bay. Brady has

890
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 1: owned the Falcons um. I think in three of the

891
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 1: four games they've scored over thirty points and one by

892
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 1: double digits. I like Tampa here easily. Now, this is

893
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 1: the sketchy one that's probably gonna make some people nauseous.

894
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 1: I'm betting on Bailey Zappy at home against Detroit. Everybody

895
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 1: loves the Lion. You heard Patrick Everson talk about some

896
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 1: of these public splits. The public loves Detroit. They're covering

897
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 1: machine so far thanks to Jared Goff. I don't know

898
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:10,800
Speaker 1: if you guys heard. I was on Cowherd. I'm on

899
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 1: cowhard every day, but we were talking about and he

900
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 1: like loves Jared Goff. He wants to keep Jared Goff.

901
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 1: I'm like, whoa, whoa. St Brown looks awesome, the o

902
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 1: C is surprising people, Swift is look good. Josh Reynolds,

903
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,319
Speaker 1: and they're shredding bad defenses. And oh, by the way,

904
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 1: in domes this is their first trip outside. Do you

905
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 1: guys remember what Belichick did to golf in the Super Bowl?

906
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 1: Goffin McVeigh, By the way, it was ugly total beat down.

907
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 1: I see Goff struggling. I see the Patriots defense dominate

908
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 1: in this game. Would not be surprised if we saw

909
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 1: like a twenty to nine, uh, twenty three to ten

910
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 1: Patriots boring slobber knocker. I think this is a significant

911
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 1: play three and a half in the contest. I don't love,

912
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 1: but I've got to take it. And if you look

913
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 1: in the contest a couple of games, I really like

914
00:43:57,880 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 1: the hook is there, and I think that's there for

915
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 1: a reason, because they no on game day, even bigger

916
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 1: money is gonna come in. I'm going Patriots here, and

917
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 1: so we got Saints, Bucks, Patriots, Washington. I don't really

918
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,760
Speaker 1: want to talk about Rams Cowboys. I think I'm probably

919
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 1: gonna step away from that game. I can't trust the

920
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 1: Rams right now. And I know that's what you say

921
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:20,800
Speaker 1: when you just saw someone around an Island game. But

922
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 1: there's an offensive line that's really in rough shape. The

923
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 1: offense itself is struggling, and I don't know if in

924
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 1: the trenches they can hold off Michael Parsons Dexter Lawrence.

925
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 1: Did you see Dallas number one in pressure rate? I

926
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 1: gave you guys a website for pressure rate. Right, um,

927
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 1: let me call it up. I have it bookmarked, but

928
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 1: it is uh, it's uh, computers all slow, but um

929
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 1: it is you just you know, Google two thousand twenty

930
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:50,239
Speaker 1: two Pro Football Reference Defensive Statistics. And then if you

931
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: scroll down, the second graph shows team advanced defense and

932
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 1: you look at pressure rate and there they are, uh,

933
00:44:56,640 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 1: at the top. The Dallas Cowboys is is kind of

934
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 1: a nasty defensive front. Dan Quinn auditioning again. Now they've

935
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,919
Speaker 1: played some shaky offensive lines. Easy too easy to beat

936
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:11,800
Speaker 1: down some of these inferior offensive lines. But it's not

937
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 1: like the Rams offensive line is good. Seriously. Oh, actually,

938
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 1: Cowboys just got passed I'm sorry by the forty niners.

939
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 1: They're now number one in pressure rate forty nine thirty

940
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 1: four point to pressure rate Cowboys thirty two point seven.

941
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 1: So San Fran with that big game seven sacks against

942
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:30,320
Speaker 1: um Stafford significant, But Dallas is getting to the quarterback.

943
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 1: The Rams can't protect the quarterback. This is just I

944
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 1: think you gotta be careful here. I think you've gotta

945
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 1: be very very careful if you take the Rams, they're

946
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 1: probably the right side. I get it. The line should

947
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 1: be more, but on side stepping it my final two picks.

948
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 1: I'm looking hard at the Eagles. Yes, the Philadelphia Eagles

949
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 1: going on the road laying a big number. This is

950
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 1: more of a fade of Arizona and their inabilities at home.

951
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:55,760
Speaker 1: They've lost their last seven against the spread and straight

952
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: up at home, and their offense just can't They can't

953
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 1: do anyth How are they gonna keep up if the

954
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 1: Eagles are running all over them, if A J. Brown's

955
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:05,720
Speaker 1: getting loose in the secondary like this isn't the Carolina

956
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 1: Panthers you're facing, Like Arizona has been really really putured

957
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 1: so far this season, and if they fall remember no

958
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: points in the first quarter all season. Again, this probably

959
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 1: as close um. I can't see the Eagles totally destroying them,

960
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 1: but I think I'm gonna have to lay it with

961
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 1: the Eagles in five. And finally, listen the New York

962
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:30,840
Speaker 1: Jets getting three and a half. There's something cooking with

963
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 1: the Zach Wilson, Corey Davis, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore. We

964
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:37,839
Speaker 1: only saw one game of it, and I know Zach

965
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 1: Wilson struggled a bit. I saw this crazy stat. I

966
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 1: go to Pro Football Focus and look at the quarterbacks.

967
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:46,359
Speaker 1: So Zach Wilson has forty drop backs. He had what's

968
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 1: graded as four turnover worthy place in forty dropbacks. There's

969
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: some guys who have that through four games. Wilson is

970
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 1: very cavalier with the ball. Now will the Dolphins still

971
00:46:57,160 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 1: brillitz heavily with it? Looks like Xavier and Howard will

972
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 1: not go by and Jones is out. We talked about

973
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 1: some of this with Patrick, but in my notes for

974
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 1: the game, I have if they try this zero blitz

975
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 1: thing that they did against Lamar, and they try to

976
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 1: force Zack Wilson into problems, and you have backup cornerbacks

977
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: and you've got the speed of Moore and Garrett Wilson,

978
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,759
Speaker 1: and I think the Jets can have some success. And defensively,

979
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 1: you know I I I know Teddy bridge Water all

980
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 1: he does his cover as they joke his name is

981
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 1: Teddy Covers. It's gonna remind you guys, a lot of

982
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 1: that is as an underdog, Okay, Teddy, Teddy Bridgewater is

983
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 1: a dog. Is great, Teddy Bridgewater laying points on the road.

984
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm looking hard at the Jets. I

985
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:37,280
Speaker 1: do think this is a really good um teaser weekend.

986
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 1: UM teasers have not been good to me this year,

987
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 1: which is weird because last year, Oh my god, I

988
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:45,760
Speaker 1: think at one point was like thirteen and four hitting teasers.

989
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 1: They're saving you when you're hitting some of these struggles

990
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 1: on sides. But a four team teaser that I like,

991
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers to two and a half, I think

992
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 1: they slaughter the Giants. Saints just have to win the game, Um,

993
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay to three against Atlanta, and San Francisco just

994
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 1: has to win by one against Carolina. Who's losing that

995
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 1: out of those four, I mean the Saints and listen,

996
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:10,399
Speaker 1: I know you guys hate the Saints and they haven't

997
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 1: looked great. Quick thing from my notes here, Saints lead

998
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 1: the NFL and turnover margin minus seven, lead the NFL

999
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:20,040
Speaker 1: and penalties. I think this is the week they button

1000
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 1: it up, getting healthier against a bad team. There's don't

1001
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:25,760
Speaker 1: need to be holding, don't need to hold in the secondary,

1002
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 1: not again, not against this team. I know Medcalf is good.

1003
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 1: Lock it's a little banged up again. They're gonna get

1004
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 1: to Gino Smith. Seattle has no pass for US. Seattle

1005
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 1: has no secondary. Dalton should eat Um and that's how

1006
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 1: we have it. Listen, I know there's not a lot

1007
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:41,320
Speaker 1: of college games in there. We gotta get a college

1008
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:44,040
Speaker 1: guy back on talk a little college footy. But for now,

1009
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 1: that's what we got. I am not betting on Nick

1010
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 1: Coxa versus T Grace in the League MX playoffs Saturday

1011
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 1: games at five o'clock. It's on Univision five Pacific. That is,

1012
00:48:56,640 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 1: I will be very locked in on that um listen.

1013
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,400
Speaker 1: As an owner of the team, I obviously cannot be

1014
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 1: betting on my team. That being said, this will be

1015
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 1: a tall order. Last year, Nacoxa went and lost in

1016
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:13,440
Speaker 1: penalty kicks tough, tough pilter swallow. They tied it up

1017
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 1: late in the game. I think it was like eight

1018
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 1: seven minute really exciting stuff, and then they ended up

1019
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 1: losing in p k's, which sucked. But I I do uh,

1020
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 1: I do like this nickox the squad this side. I

1021
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:26,760
Speaker 1: think they keep it close against Tigris. Would not shock

1022
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 1: me if they wanted. Of course, T Grays has a

1023
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 1: couple of guys you're familiar with if you follow soccer,

1024
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 1: So check that game out Saturday afternoon Univision UH five

1025
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: o'clock Pacific, So it will be eight Eastern. I don't

1026
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 1: even know what the night game is for college football,

1027
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 1: but um I think I think the soccer game will

1028
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:47,840
Speaker 1: interest you. It should be a pretty lit scene in

1029
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 1: the Liga MX playoffs. UM I'll leave it there. Guys,

1030
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 1: we'll talk to you Monday.