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Speaker 1: welcome to tonight here at the Volume. Have you Monday? Everybody?
Speaker 1: Hope all if you guys had an incredible weekend. We're
Speaker 1: going to be starting today off with a couple of
Speaker 1: series previews. In this video, I'm just hitting MAVs Thunder.
Speaker 1: Later today we'll have a shorter series preview on Celtics
Speaker 1: Cavs coming out, and then later tonight we're going after
Speaker 1: the final buzzer of Game two of Nuggets Timberwolves break
Speaker 1: that game down, as well as the Knicks Pacers series
Speaker 1: having their Game one tonight, so two series previews, previews
Speaker 1: live show tonight. Also quick note, I released like a
Speaker 1: Game Breakdown with forty five clips of film on the
Speaker 1: Nuggets Wolves Game one, but we ran into an issue
Speaker 1: with YouTube where it got pulled. So like we just
Speaker 1: ran the verbal part at the start of the show
Speaker 1: that may or may not end up happening to this
Speaker 1: video as well. I have ten clips that we're going
Speaker 1: to hit at the end, but just know we're still
Speaker 1: trying to kind of work through that behind the scenes.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna do the best that I can. But
Speaker 1: that's why I'm going to kind of go over everything
Speaker 1: verbal at the top of the show, so at least
Speaker 1: we have that if something goes wrong. But again, I
Speaker 1: apologize for that issue we have with that video. I
Speaker 1: promise we're working on it behind the scenes. You guys
Speaker 1: know the Joe before we get started. Subscribed to our
Speaker 1: brand new YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of
Speaker 1: our videos, follow me on Twitter at Underscore JCNLTC, don't
Speaker 1: miss sho announcements, don't forget about our podcast feed wherever
Speaker 1: you get your podcast under Hoops tonight, and then last
Speaker 1: but not least, keep dropping mail back questions in those
Speaker 1: YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them throughout the
Speaker 1: rest of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball.
Speaker 1: So MAVs Thunder. This is of all the series that
Speaker 1: I've talked about in the first round of the postseason,
Speaker 1: or I should say the first and second round of
Speaker 1: the postseason, this one is the hardest one for me
Speaker 1: to get a feel for it. I kind of had
Speaker 1: a more concrete feeling going in until I got the
Speaker 1: news that Maxi Kleiba is going to be out for
Speaker 1: at least the next three weeks. I've nick Sixers was
Speaker 1: close for me, and I ended up picking the wrong
Speaker 1: side of it, but I at least had a more
Speaker 1: strong feeling about Philly at the start of that particular series.
Speaker 1: This series, like, I don't feel good about either team
Speaker 1: given the injury to Maxi Kleba, but we're going to
Speaker 1: get into it. The Thunder won the season series three
Speaker 1: to one. The data is almost useless. Everyone was out
Speaker 1: The last game. The MAVs blowout was right after the
Speaker 1: Gafford Washington trade, and Gafford and Washington both came off
Speaker 1: the bench. Kind of a weird game. The Thunder were
Speaker 1: on three straight full days off beforehand, and they just
Speaker 1: came out flat and got rolled from the opening tip.
Speaker 1: Really energetic MAVs effort in that game. Luca was out
Speaker 1: for one of the other MAVs losses. Kyrie was out
Speaker 1: for one of the other MAVs losses. The one game
Speaker 1: all the Stars played, the MAVs dominated, but like I said,
Speaker 1: it was kind of a weird, a weird game from
Speaker 1: the start. The metrics, the MAVs won thirteen point five
Speaker 1: offensive rating in this matchup the thunder one nineteen point seven.
Speaker 1: The MAVs barely won the rebounding battle. They grabbed fifty
Speaker 1: point four percent of available rebounds, so they didn't do
Speaker 1: as much damage to Oklahoma City as some other teams
Speaker 1: have done. The thunder one points off of turnovers twenty
Speaker 1: three point four to seventeen point eight per game, the
Speaker 1: thunder one second chance points eighteen point three to thirteen
Speaker 1: point three. By the way, these are actually per one
Speaker 1: hundred possessions, not per game. MAVs won fast break points
Speaker 1: eighteen point eight to twelve point five, and MAVs one
Speaker 1: points in the paint forty six point three to forty
Speaker 1: five point three. Vegas agrees that this is more or
Speaker 1: less a coin flip series. The Thunder are currently favored
Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen according to DraftKings, but both teams
Speaker 1: have negative odds. If you want to bet the MAVs
Speaker 1: to win the series, you're getting it at minus one
Speaker 1: oh five, which is not a whole lot better. So
Speaker 1: more or less a coin flip series in Vegas as well.
Speaker 1: Let's start with the MAVs on offense. So it's going
Speaker 1: to be interesting because I think when the MAVs are
Speaker 1: on offense, it is going to be pretty straightforward matchups
Speaker 1: for Oklahoma City. When Oklahoma City is on offense, I
Speaker 1: think Dallas is going to be doing all sorts of
Speaker 1: different stuff to hang with some of the matchup issues
Speaker 1: that Oklahoma City can cause. So let's start MAVs on offense,
Speaker 1: really straightforward matchups for them. It's going to be lou
Speaker 1: Dort on Luka Doncic very a kind of a different
Speaker 1: type of defender than some of the guys he was
Speaker 1: going against in the last round, like Russ and Terrence
Speaker 1: Man are kind of like low center of gravity athletic guards.
Speaker 1: But lou Dort is literally built like a linebacker, and
Speaker 1: so he's going to be able to kind of handle
Speaker 1: some of the bully ball stuff that Luca does a
Speaker 1: little better. But to be clear, in the regular season,
Speaker 1: Luca lit him up thirty four points per game, fifty
Speaker 1: six percent from the field forty three percent from three
Speaker 1: twenty seven assists in the two games that he played.
Speaker 1: The game that I talked about, the blowout game, he
Speaker 1: was cooking Lou Dort early. He was duck He ducked
Speaker 1: under a pick early, which you shouldn't do with Luca. Luca,
Speaker 1: he'll pull up three. He hit him with a pump
Speaker 1: fake and Dort damn near ran into the scorers table
Speaker 1: as Luca hit a three over the top of him.
Speaker 1: It was just a complete cook job. It was not pretty.
Speaker 1: But I do think Lou's capable of doing a much
Speaker 1: better job. His back pressure was kind of weak in
Speaker 1: that game, and like I said, he left his feet
Speaker 1: on pump fakes too much. But he does have the
Speaker 1: physical traits to beat Luca to spots and to hold
Speaker 1: up under his bully ball. I do think that he'll
Speaker 1: do a better job. I expect Luca to do a
Speaker 1: lot of work early in possessions to get him off
Speaker 1: of him as much as possible, and then I also
Speaker 1: think loud Dort's going to bring a lot of full
Speaker 1: court ball pressure to try to tire him out again.
Speaker 1: The last time Luca lost a playoff series against Golden
Speaker 1: State in twenty twenty two, that was kind of the
Speaker 1: way that Golden State attacked him was just pick him
Speaker 1: up full court, try to tire him out, stay home
Speaker 1: off the ball, make him into a scorer, right. Jalen
Speaker 1: Williams on Kyrie. Kyrie also torched him thirty one points
Speaker 1: per game, sixty two percent from the field, forty three
Speaker 1: percent from the three main thing that stood out to
Speaker 1: me on tape is he's just a little too quick
Speaker 1: for Jalen. Jalen's a really good athlete, but Kyrie is
Speaker 1: a small guard with a ton of first step quickness.
Speaker 1: So for Jalen, it's mostly going to be about sticking
Speaker 1: to the game plan. What I mean by that is
Speaker 1: like a lot of it's going to be more about
Speaker 1: back pressure, doing the best you can to contest shots,
Speaker 1: more stuff within the team concept defensively, because I think
Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma City's gonna have to throw some extra
Speaker 1: bodies in that direction from time to time. Chet's gonna
Speaker 1: guard whoever the center is whether it's Daniel Gafford or
Speaker 1: Derek Lively. The MAVs ran a lot of pick and
Speaker 1: pop with Maxi Kleba in the regular season. When I
Speaker 1: talk about Maxi Cleba being out of this series, I'm
Speaker 1: primarily going to be focusing on Dallas on the defensive
Speaker 1: end of the floor, because that's where I think his
Speaker 1: greatest value is. But it's also a loss on the
Speaker 1: offensive end because Gafford and Lively are not picking, and
Speaker 1: they ran a lot of pick and pop withk Liba
Speaker 1: against the Thunder during the regular season. Chet had some
Speaker 1: mixed results in drop coverage against Dallas. We'll show you
Speaker 1: some examples on the film when we get there, But
Speaker 1: similar to Dort, I think Chet's capable of doing a
Speaker 1: better job than he did during the regular season. I
Speaker 1: think we'll see Shay guard Derek Jones Junior, and I
Speaker 1: think we'll see Josh Gitty guard PJ. Washington, and for
Speaker 1: both of them, same sort of thing. A lot of
Speaker 1: lowman possessions where they're guy's going to be in the
Speaker 1: corner spotting up and they're gonna need to help on
Speaker 1: pick and roll, help in defensive rebounding situations, help on drive,
Speaker 1: so it's gonna be a lot of help and rebound
Speaker 1: responsibilities from those two guys. They'll primarily run deep drop.
Speaker 1: They did some trapping with Chet, but they'll primarily run
Speaker 1: deep drop. They're gonna when the MAVs try to attack
Speaker 1: Josh Kitty in particular, I think they'll do a lot
Speaker 1: of hedging and recovering. They did that in the regular
Speaker 1: season just to prevent Giddy from getting into any unfavorable
Speaker 1: matchups keys for both teams for Dallas get favorable matchups
Speaker 1: for Luca possessions with more guard to guard screens and
Speaker 1: then also pushing in transition to get cross matches. One
Speaker 1: of the things that they had a lot of success
Speaker 1: with Tape on Tape was stack, pick and roll, so
Speaker 1: they'd have Luca as the main ball handler. They'd have
Speaker 1: Gafford or Lively come up and set the screen, and
Speaker 1: then as Luca comes downhill, they'd have Kyrie underneath the
Speaker 1: basket backscreen Chet and then pop out to the three
Speaker 1: point line. They were spamming that in the I want
Speaker 1: to say it was in the third quarter of one
Speaker 1: of the games that I was watching. I've watched a
Speaker 1: bunch of film on this matchup today because I had
Speaker 1: such a I had such a poor feel for who
Speaker 1: I felt comfortable with in this series. I watched more
Speaker 1: film on this one than I did any of the
Speaker 1: other series I've watched this year or that I previewed.
Speaker 1: In this playoff run and they but there was a
Speaker 1: game I want to say it was the one the
Speaker 1: Mavericks won big, and they they really leaned into stack,
Speaker 1: pick and roll in like an early third quarter run
Speaker 1: where they kind of started to pull away, and actually
Speaker 1: I think it was like mid third quarter, not that
Speaker 1: it matters anyway, they spammed it a bunch times in
Speaker 1: a row, and they got a bunch of buckets out
Speaker 1: of it from a bunch of different reads. So I
Speaker 1: think they'll run that quite a bit on Oklahoma City side,
Speaker 1: pressure Luca full court with Dort to eat into the
Speaker 1: shot clock where Luca out less time to run action
Speaker 1: that way too. Again, like the MAVs, when you can
Speaker 1: kind of get them deep in the clock to where
Speaker 1: some of their lesser offensive players are trying to make
Speaker 1: plays with like four or five seconds on the shot clock,
Speaker 1: that's where you can play them into their worst tendencies.
Speaker 1: And then again I think it's going to take a
Speaker 1: team defensive effort with kyrieus. You know, Jalen Williams in
Speaker 1: particular like it just a little upright for Kyrie. But
Speaker 1: we'll see he might hold up better in the postseason
Speaker 1: with more physicality and more intensity. Also, don't be surprised
Speaker 1: if we see a lot of case on Wallace to
Speaker 1: try to deal with the Kyrie problem and then again
Speaker 1: cleaning up the defensive glass. That's gonna be a big one.
Speaker 1: Just in general, Dallas was really I know, they didn't
Speaker 1: do a ton of damage to Oklahoma City in the
Speaker 1: regular season on the offensive glass. They did a ton
Speaker 1: of damage to the Clippers though in the first round
Speaker 1: on the offensive glass. So that's going to be a
Speaker 1: big one for Oklahoma City moving to Oklahoma City on offense.
Speaker 1: As I said, I think we're gonna see a lot
Speaker 1: more variety in the defensive looks that we see from Dallas.
Speaker 1: I think they'll probably start Game one with Kyrie on Shay,
Speaker 1: as crazy as that sounds, Derek Jones Junior on Jalen
Speaker 1: Luca on Lou Dort, and then PJ. Washington on Josh
Speaker 1: Giddy and then Daniel Gafford on Chet. I think that's
Speaker 1: how they'll start, but we very well might see Kyrie
Speaker 1: shift onto Josh Gitty and move PJ. Washington onto one
Speaker 1: of their main two shot creators. I think that'll be
Speaker 1: a more more of like a primary look we'll see
Speaker 1: throughout the series is Derek Jones on Shae, PJ. Washington
Speaker 1: on Jalen, and then Kyrie to Josh Gitty. But Kyrie's
Speaker 1: been defending really well, and I wouldn't be surprised if
Speaker 1: in their team film sessions and stuff and in their prep,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if Kyrie's speaking up to Jason
Speaker 1: Kidd and saying, I want to guard one of those guys,
Speaker 1: and we'll see if he ends up doing so. Again.
Speaker 1: One of the things that's going to be interesting is
Speaker 1: the Derek Jones PJ. Washington, Shay Jalen kind of dynamic.
Speaker 1: I think you can go both ways. There's gonna be
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna start Derek Jones on Shay because
Speaker 1: Derek Jones has been taking the higher leverage point of
Speaker 1: attack assignments for the most part here down the tail
Speaker 1: end of the season. But there's a case to be
Speaker 1: made that PJ. Washington is actually a better matchup for Shay.
Speaker 1: Shay's not as athletic downhill. Shae gets a ton of
Speaker 1: drives to the basket, but it's more hesitation and it's
Speaker 1: a lot of shiftiness. Jalen's like a real downhill threat,
Speaker 1: And so part of me wonders if Derek Jones Junior
Speaker 1: actually matches up better with Jalen Williams in terms of
Speaker 1: his ability to beat him to spots, whereas Shay when
Speaker 1: he's doing the herky jerky shifty kind of thing and
Speaker 1: when he tries to get into your body and use
Speaker 1: that off arm to kind of get separation to take
Speaker 1: those short step backs, I wonder if PJ. Washington can
Speaker 1: absorb that contact better and get and has better length
Speaker 1: to get contests. So I bet you they kind of
Speaker 1: tweaked that around back and forth a little bit. And again,
Speaker 1: what you do is early in the series you kind
Speaker 1: of let both guys have opportunities on both guys, and
Speaker 1: then you make a read on tape like which guy's
Speaker 1: doing a better job making which guy feel uncomfortable? The
Speaker 1: Chet problem. So Chet's only three for nine on pick
Speaker 1: and Pop three so far in this postseason, so I
Speaker 1: expect him to start with Gafford Lively on Chet and
Speaker 1: just run drop and then if Chet catches on the
Speaker 1: three point line, they'll have Gafford or Lively just close
Speaker 1: out as best as they can. But there will almost
Speaker 1: certainly be at least one game in the series, if
Speaker 1: not a few, or Chet's hitting and it could just
Speaker 1: be like Miles Turner against the Bucks, or maybe he's
Speaker 1: just hitting the entire series. And if that happens, that's
Speaker 1: where the Maxi Kleeba loss is huge, because he's the
Speaker 1: kind of versatile defender that can make that job a
Speaker 1: lot more achieva achievable. So imagine you have Derek Jones
Speaker 1: Junior on in PJ. Washington on Jalen Jalen Williams and
Speaker 1: Shake Gills Alexander. If you're matched up on those two guys,
Speaker 1: if you have Kleiba on Chet, then you can just
Speaker 1: switch everything. Any Jalen Chet ball screen, just switch. You
Speaker 1: trust Kleiba or do a decent job on Jalen. Right,
Speaker 1: if it's a Shaye Chet ball screen, you just switch.
Speaker 1: You trust Kleba to do a good job on Shay right.
Speaker 1: And then on the flip side of that, you don't
Speaker 1: think Chet's gonna bully PJ. Washington or Derrek Jones Junior. Right,
Speaker 1: So like those are those are that's an easy fix
Speaker 1: if Kleiba is available. But without Kliba, I think we'll
Speaker 1: see Dallas try two different things. First, I think they
Speaker 1: might just try putting the center on Josh Gitty. This
Speaker 1: is a look they went with during the regular season
Speaker 1: that I'll show you guys when we get to the tape.
Speaker 1: But you just take Derek Lively or Josh Kitty which
Speaker 1: everyone's on there, excuse me, Gafford and which everyone's on
Speaker 1: the floor, and Giddy will just be sitting in the
Speaker 1: corner and you just have them sit in the paint
Speaker 1: and help. Then you move PJ. Washington to Chet Holmgren.
Speaker 1: That's when you put Kyrie Irving on Shay and then
Speaker 1: you basically switch any chet ball screen with PJ and Will.
Speaker 1: That will at least allow you to prevent Chet from
Speaker 1: breaking open on those picking pops. Now, one of the
Speaker 1: things you have to be prepared for there. And I'll
Speaker 1: show you guys this on tape as well. Okgahoma City
Speaker 1: has seen this coverage before. Teams have been putting their
Speaker 1: center on Giddy often throughout the regular season, and so
Speaker 1: one of the things you'll see is they'll just bring
Speaker 1: up whoever. They'll just bring up Giddy into the ball
Speaker 1: screen instead of running it with Chet. In that case,
Speaker 1: you live with the results. Just running deep drop Giddy
Speaker 1: is not a good movement shooter, so he's not gonna
Speaker 1: slip out of that ball screen quickly and knock down shots.
Speaker 1: You just run your deep drop coverage. You chase with
Speaker 1: Kyrie over the top on Shay, and you funnel into
Speaker 1: to Gafford and if Giddy catches on the perimeter, you
Speaker 1: just close out right. But that is what Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: will do sometimes to counter putting the center on Giddy.
Speaker 1: They'll just start setting ball screens with Giddy. The second
Speaker 1: thing that I think we'll see them do is just
Speaker 1: go super small and just go this is not ideal.
Speaker 1: The ideal small ball group for Dallas would be Kleeba
Speaker 1: and PJ. Washington together with Derek Jones and Kyrie and
Speaker 1: Luca and hopefully the news with kleab his shoulder is
Speaker 1: that he's able to come back in three weeks and
Speaker 1: if Dallas can somehow win the series, then he returns
Speaker 1: halfway through the conference finals, right that's what you're crossing
Speaker 1: your fingers for. But in the short term, you got
Speaker 1: to have some sort of small ball look. I think
Speaker 1: you go with PJ. Washington at center, and then what
Speaker 1: you do is you bring in either Dante Xhem or
Speaker 1: Josh Green. Those are two of your stockier guards that
Speaker 1: can guard up a little bit. And then you run
Speaker 1: those two guys with Kyrie Luca and Derek Jones. And
Speaker 1: then from there you put PJ on Chet, You put
Speaker 1: Derek Jones on Shay or Jalen, and then you put
Speaker 1: the other Dante Eximmer Josh Green on the other one
Speaker 1: of those guys do more switching. Like I talked about,
Speaker 1: that I think is another look that we'll see. I
Speaker 1: think you can get away with going super small against
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City in a way that you can't with some
Speaker 1: other teams around the league, just because Oklahoma City is
Speaker 1: pretty small. But definitely the Cleblad loss is going to
Speaker 1: be big. But I think those are a couple of
Speaker 1: looks that Dallas can go with to deal with the
Speaker 1: Chet problem if he gets going and pick and pop predictions. Again,
Speaker 1: I viewed this series as more or less of a
Speaker 1: coin flip. Mac was healthy. I'd give Dallas a clear edge,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't get it. They wouldn't be a massive favorite,
Speaker 1: but I'd pick Dallas and feel more comfortable with it.
Speaker 1: But without him, I think it's a really tough series
Speaker 1: to call either way, and I think the Vegas odds
Speaker 1: are a clear sign of that as well. Both teams
Speaker 1: have negative odds, so if you bet a hundred bucks,
Speaker 1: you're winning less than one hundred on either team if
Speaker 1: you bet them to win the series. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: pick Dallas still for three reasons. One, I've been really
Speaker 1: impressed with Dallas' overall physicality on the frontline so far
Speaker 1: in this postseason. Now, obviously Kleiba being out it affects that,
Speaker 1: but they were the third best offensive rebounding team in
Speaker 1: the first round. They grabbed thirty two percent of their
Speaker 1: own misses, and as we know, that's a huge weakness
Speaker 1: for Oklahoma City. I think they're twenty eight in defensive
Speaker 1: rebounding in the regular season. Two, I think Luca is
Speaker 1: a better player than Shae. He's bigger, he's stronger, and
Speaker 1: he's substantially more playoff experience. And then three, I'm a
Speaker 1: big believer in Jalen Williams's long term potential. I've said
Speaker 1: this before. I think he has the potential to be
Speaker 1: better than Shae, But I think Kyrie is a little
Speaker 1: bit more prepared for this type of series in terms
Speaker 1: of experience, and so those three things kind of give
Speaker 1: me a tiny bit of an edge. Honestly, that gap
Speaker 1: almost gets closed for me because I think Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: does have more offensive skilled down the roster after their stars,
Speaker 1: and Oklahoma City has an incredible home court advantage and
Speaker 1: they're gonna get four home games in this series. So
Speaker 1: it's still razor razor thin for me. I'm gonna pick
Speaker 1: Dallas in six, but I don't feel good about it.
Speaker 1: So we're just gonna do a quick series preview of
Speaker 1: Cavs Celtics. We're running a little tight on time. Also,
Speaker 1: this is by far the biggest long shot of any
Speaker 1: of the second round series. The Celtics are favored at
Speaker 1: minus twelve hundred, which is like a massive, massive number
Speaker 1: for a second round playoff series. But I want to
Speaker 1: give my two cents on just my outlook on the
Speaker 1: series going in. We're gonna break it down and I'll
Speaker 1: give a prediction at the end. You guys know, the
Speaker 1: Joe before we get started. Subscribe to a brand new
Speaker 1: YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos.
Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at underscore jsnlts you guys, don't
Speaker 1: miss you announcements. Don't forget about a podcas feed wherever
Speaker 1: you get your podcast under hoops Tonight. And the last,
Speaker 1: but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions underneath this video
Speaker 1: so that we can keep hitting mail bags throughout the
Speaker 1: rest of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball.
Speaker 1: So the Celtics won the season series two to one.
Speaker 1: The only loss was in the Dean Wade game. That
Speaker 1: was the game where the Calves were down by twenty
Speaker 1: two nine minutes left. Dean Wade got red hot from three.
Speaker 1: He had a tip dunk or it was either a
Speaker 1: tipdunk or offensive rebound dunk. I can't even remember, but
Speaker 1: he I vividly remember Drew Holiday not boxing him out.
Speaker 1: That's all I remember is Drew not boxing out Dean
Speaker 1: crash it in getting a dunk, and then on the
Speaker 1: other end of the floor, Tatum attack Sterarius Garland on
Speaker 1: a switch, gets a fadaway jump shot off, draws a foul.
Speaker 1: They review it, they overturn it Calves pull off the
Speaker 1: improbable comeback. The metrics from the season series one seventeen
Speaker 1: point two offensive rating for the Celtics, a one to
Speaker 1: thirteen point two offensive rebound or offensive rating for the Calves.
Speaker 1: Celtics dominated the glass. They grabbed fifty four point five
Speaker 1: perc of available rebounds, the Celtics one points off of
Speaker 1: turnovers twenty point three to seventeen point nine per one
Speaker 1: hundred possessions. Calves won second chance points fourteen point eight
Speaker 1: to fourteen point one per one hundred possessions. Celtics won
Speaker 1: fast break points thirteen point four to nine point three
Speaker 1: per one hundred, and the Celtics one points in the
Speaker 1: paint forty five point five to forty per one hundred.
Speaker 1: On DraftKings, the Celtics are currently a minus twelve hundred favorite.
Speaker 1: As I mentioned earlier, that's just a massive number. Let's
Speaker 1: get into it very briefly. On both ends of the floor.
Speaker 1: The Caves. On offense, the Celtics started Drew Holliday on him.
Speaker 1: During the regular season. Mitchell played really well. He averaged
Speaker 1: thirty points per game on fifty percent shooting. In the
Speaker 1: two games he played just nine assists to six turnovers
Speaker 1: in those two games, though Derek White well in all
Speaker 1: likelihood guard Darius Garland. Huge factor in the series is
Speaker 1: whether or not Jared Allen's actually going to play right
Speaker 1: like I would have thought he would have played in
Speaker 1: Game seven if he was feeling up for it, and
Speaker 1: he clearly didn't, So who knows if we'll see him
Speaker 1: in this series. I'm going to proceed as though he does.
Speaker 1: I don't think whether or not he plays makes that
Speaker 1: much of a difference in whether or not the Cavs
Speaker 1: can win the series. But we're gonna break it down
Speaker 1: from the perspective of Jared playing with that. With Jared
Speaker 1: Allen on the floor, I expect a bunch of random
Speaker 1: stuff from Boston with their back line guys. So they
Speaker 1: played a like they played a two games in Boston
Speaker 1: two days apart early in the season, and at the
Speaker 1: end of the first game, one of the things that
Speaker 1: Celtics did is they put Jason Tatum on Jared Allen
Speaker 1: so that they could switch ball screens that involved Jared
Speaker 1: Allen and Tatum is a big, strong forward that can
Speaker 1: kind of hang physically in that matchup right. Then two
Speaker 1: days later they actually started and closed the game with
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum guarding Jared Allen. So if Jared Allen plays,
Speaker 1: I think we may see that. And there are versions
Speaker 1: of this where we may see that even with Evan Mobley,
Speaker 1: where like they do something like if Allen's out and
Speaker 1: Isaaca Corro starts, then you might see Al Horford guard
Speaker 1: Isaacacorro and just kind of roam around in the paint
Speaker 1: and then have Tatum guard Evan Mobley and switch ball screens.
Speaker 1: So don't be surprised if we see a lot of
Speaker 1: JANKI stuff like that from Boston where they put their
Speaker 1: forwards on Cleveland Biggs that try to disrupt the Calves
Speaker 1: ball screen attack. As we know, the Calves run a
Speaker 1: lot of pick and roll. It's the primary driving force
Speaker 1: of their offensive attack, and if you have the ability
Speaker 1: to switch that action, it turns them into an ISO team.
Speaker 1: And again, that's just a lot to ask for Donovan
Speaker 1: Mitchell and Darius Garland in a large sample, But the
Speaker 1: truth is we're like, it's gonna take a heroic performance
Speaker 1: from Garland and Mitchell under any circumstances to keep this
Speaker 1: series competitive. Moving to the Celtics on offense again, assuming
Speaker 1: Allen is back. I think we'll see Max Struce on
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum. The Cavs defended Tatum well in the regular season.
Speaker 1: They held him to thirty nine percent shooting. Again, the
Speaker 1: game plan there is you want to shrink the gaps
Speaker 1: to take away his driving lanes and bait him into
Speaker 1: pull up jumpers. Tatum has cooled off, like way off
Speaker 1: on his pull up jumper. Again. He got hot a
Speaker 1: little bit there in like January, but he's just thirty
Speaker 1: six percent on them post All Star Break or zero
Speaker 1: point ninety four points per shot. Again, below a point
Speaker 1: is pretty inefficient for pull up jumpers, especially on a
Speaker 1: volume guy like Tatum who takes so many of them.
Speaker 1: He shot just fourteen for thirty seven on them in
Speaker 1: the first round, zero point ninety five points per shot.
Speaker 1: So we're on like three months of basketball now where
Speaker 1: Tatum has been back to where he's typically been as
Speaker 1: a pull up jump shooter, which is inefficient. And so
Speaker 1: if you can sit in the driving lanes and bait
Speaker 1: him into pull up jumpers, you'll bait him into an
Speaker 1: inefficient series. I think we'll see Evan Mobley on Jylen Brown.
Speaker 1: Did a good job contesting his pull up jumpers in
Speaker 1: this matchup. However, he did give up some drives, some
Speaker 1: quick slashing drives, and Brown is stronger than him, and
Speaker 1: so when he gets those angles, he can kind of
Speaker 1: get physical and get angles to the basket. So for mobilely,
Speaker 1: it's about keeping a level stance, so not opening up
Speaker 1: any driving lanes and then just giving more space you
Speaker 1: can offer a contest when the shot does go up.
Speaker 1: I think we'll see Donovan Mitchell on Derek White again,
Speaker 1: a lot of two man game with Derek White and
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum, So it's gonna be about game plan discipline.
Speaker 1: When Derek White has the ball, if they're not switching,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be about chasing over the top. When Derek
Speaker 1: White it sets those screens on Tatum, it's gonna be
Speaker 1: about hedging and recovering and getting back to Derrek White.
Speaker 1: Derek White is a good movement shooter, so closeouts are
Speaker 1: gonna be key. Darius Garland on Drew Holliday. We know
Speaker 1: Boston is gonna look to attack Garland in the post
Speaker 1: with Drew, but it's kind of just the best version
Speaker 1: of those matchups anyway. And again, the Calves are gonna
Speaker 1: have a lot of favorite. The Celtics are gonna have
Speaker 1: a lot of favorable matchups over the course of the series.
Speaker 1: That's it. The Calves are a really good defense. They're fast,
Speaker 1: they play really hard. They defend the three point line
Speaker 1: really well. They allowed the sixth fewest wide open threes
Speaker 1: in the league this year. That's defender at least six
Speaker 1: feet away, and they're top twelve and both three point
Speaker 1: attempts allowed and three pointers made per one hundred possession.
Speaker 1: So they will play the Celtics into some cold streaks.
Speaker 1: I mean when they won that game that they blew
Speaker 1: the twenty two point lead. I did a full film
Speaker 1: session on that in the regular season and so you
Speaker 1: guys who follow the show will remember this. But the
Speaker 1: Celtics missed every single jump shot they took in that
Speaker 1: nine minute stretch, Like, and you make one of them,
Speaker 1: you win the game. So like, they will play the
Speaker 1: Celtics into some cold streaks. But I just think the
Speaker 1: Celtics are gonna be able to play the Calves into many,
Speaker 1: many more cold streaks. So I'm picking the Celtics in five.
Speaker 1: I think the Calves will get one because I trust
Speaker 1: their defense and they have a great home crowd. But
Speaker 1: if they even managed to push this to six, I
Speaker 1: would consider that to be an incredibly impressive achievement considering
Speaker 1: the talent gap, So picking the Celtics in five. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: that was a quick one. That's all I got for today.
Speaker 1: I will see you guys later tonight after the final
Speaker 1: buzzer of Nuggets Wolves for a game two instant reaction,
Speaker 1: also covering Nick pacers in that game. I will see
Speaker 1: you guys. Then the volume