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Speaker 1: The volume. The NBA playoffs are heating up, and so

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Speaker 1: eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources. All right,

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Speaker 1: welcome to tonight here at the Volume. Have you Monday? Everybody?

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Speaker 1: Hope all if you guys had an incredible weekend. We're

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Speaker 1: going to be starting today off with a couple of

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Speaker 1: series previews. In this video, I'm just hitting MAVs Thunder.

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Speaker 1: Later today we'll have a shorter series preview on Celtics

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Speaker 1: Cavs coming out, and then later tonight we're going after

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Speaker 1: the final buzzer of Game two of Nuggets Timberwolves break

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Speaker 1: that game down, as well as the Knicks Pacers series

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Speaker 1: having their Game one tonight, so two series previews, previews

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Speaker 1: live show tonight. Also quick note, I released like a

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Speaker 1: Game Breakdown with forty five clips of film on the

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Speaker 1: Nuggets Wolves Game one, but we ran into an issue

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Speaker 1: with YouTube where it got pulled. So like we just

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Speaker 1: ran the verbal part at the start of the show

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Speaker 1: that may or may not end up happening to this

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Speaker 1: video as well. I have ten clips that we're going

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Speaker 1: to hit at the end, but just know we're still

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Speaker 1: trying to kind of work through that behind the scenes.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna do the best that I can. But

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Speaker 1: that's why I'm going to kind of go over everything

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Speaker 1: verbal at the top of the show, so at least

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Speaker 1: we have that if something goes wrong. But again, I

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Speaker 1: apologize for that issue we have with that video. I

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Speaker 1: promise we're working on it behind the scenes. You guys

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Speaker 1: know the Joe before we get started. Subscribed to our

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Speaker 1: brand new YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of

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Speaker 1: our videos, follow me on Twitter at Underscore JCNLTC, don't

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Speaker 1: miss sho announcements, don't forget about our podcast feed wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcast under Hoops tonight, and then last

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Speaker 1: but not least, keep dropping mail back questions in those

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Speaker 1: YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them throughout the

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Speaker 1: rest of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball.

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Speaker 1: So MAVs Thunder. This is of all the series that

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Speaker 1: I've talked about in the first round of the postseason,

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Speaker 1: or I should say the first and second round of

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Speaker 1: the postseason, this one is the hardest one for me

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Speaker 1: to get a feel for it. I kind of had

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Speaker 1: a more concrete feeling going in until I got the

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Speaker 1: news that Maxi Kleiba is going to be out for

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Speaker 1: at least the next three weeks. I've nick Sixers was

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Speaker 1: close for me, and I ended up picking the wrong

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Speaker 1: side of it, but I at least had a more

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Speaker 1: strong feeling about Philly at the start of that particular series.

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Speaker 1: This series, like, I don't feel good about either team

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Speaker 1: given the injury to Maxi Kleba, but we're going to

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Speaker 1: get into it. The Thunder won the season series three

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Speaker 1: to one. The data is almost useless. Everyone was out

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Speaker 1: The last game. The MAVs blowout was right after the

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Speaker 1: Gafford Washington trade, and Gafford and Washington both came off

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Speaker 1: the bench. Kind of a weird game. The Thunder were

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Speaker 1: on three straight full days off beforehand, and they just

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Speaker 1: came out flat and got rolled from the opening tip.

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Speaker 1: Really energetic MAVs effort in that game. Luca was out

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Speaker 1: for one of the other MAVs losses. Kyrie was out

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Speaker 1: for one of the other MAVs losses. The one game

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Speaker 1: all the Stars played, the MAVs dominated, but like I said,

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Speaker 1: it was kind of a weird, a weird game from

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Speaker 1: the start. The metrics, the MAVs won thirteen point five

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Speaker 1: offensive rating in this matchup the thunder one nineteen point seven.

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Speaker 1: The MAVs barely won the rebounding battle. They grabbed fifty

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Speaker 1: point four percent of available rebounds, so they didn't do

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Speaker 1: as much damage to Oklahoma City as some other teams

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Speaker 1: have done. The thunder one points off of turnovers twenty

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Speaker 1: three point four to seventeen point eight per game, the

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Speaker 1: thunder one second chance points eighteen point three to thirteen

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Speaker 1: point three. By the way, these are actually per one

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Speaker 1: hundred possessions, not per game. MAVs won fast break points

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Speaker 1: eighteen point eight to twelve point five, and MAVs one

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Speaker 1: points in the paint forty six point three to forty

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Speaker 1: five point three. Vegas agrees that this is more or

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Speaker 1: less a coin flip series. The Thunder are currently favored

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Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen according to DraftKings, but both teams

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Speaker 1: have negative odds. If you want to bet the MAVs

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Speaker 1: to win the series, you're getting it at minus one

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Speaker 1: oh five, which is not a whole lot better. So

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Speaker 1: more or less a coin flip series in Vegas as well.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the MAVs on offense. So it's going

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Speaker 1: to be interesting because I think when the MAVs are

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Speaker 1: on offense, it is going to be pretty straightforward matchups

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Speaker 1: for Oklahoma City. When Oklahoma City is on offense, I

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Speaker 1: think Dallas is going to be doing all sorts of

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Speaker 1: different stuff to hang with some of the matchup issues

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Speaker 1: that Oklahoma City can cause. So let's start MAVs on offense,

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Speaker 1: really straightforward matchups for them. It's going to be lou

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Speaker 1: Dort on Luka Doncic very a kind of a different

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Speaker 1: type of defender than some of the guys he was

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Speaker 1: going against in the last round, like Russ and Terrence

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Speaker 1: Man are kind of like low center of gravity athletic guards.

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Speaker 1: But lou Dort is literally built like a linebacker, and

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Speaker 1: so he's going to be able to kind of handle

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Speaker 1: some of the bully ball stuff that Luca does a

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Speaker 1: little better. But to be clear, in the regular season,

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Speaker 1: Luca lit him up thirty four points per game, fifty

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Speaker 1: six percent from the field forty three percent from three

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Speaker 1: twenty seven assists in the two games that he played.

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Speaker 1: The game that I talked about, the blowout game, he

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Speaker 1: was cooking Lou Dort early. He was duck He ducked

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Speaker 1: under a pick early, which you shouldn't do with Luca. Luca,

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Speaker 1: he'll pull up three. He hit him with a pump

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Speaker 1: fake and Dort damn near ran into the scorers table

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Speaker 1: as Luca hit a three over the top of him.

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Speaker 1: It was just a complete cook job. It was not pretty.

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Speaker 1: But I do think Lou's capable of doing a much

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Speaker 1: better job. His back pressure was kind of weak in

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Speaker 1: that game, and like I said, he left his feet

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Speaker 1: on pump fakes too much. But he does have the

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Speaker 1: physical traits to beat Luca to spots and to hold

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Speaker 1: up under his bully ball. I do think that he'll

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Speaker 1: do a better job. I expect Luca to do a

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Speaker 1: lot of work early in possessions to get him off

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Speaker 1: of him as much as possible, and then I also

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Speaker 1: think loud Dort's going to bring a lot of full

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Speaker 1: court ball pressure to try to tire him out again.

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Speaker 1: The last time Luca lost a playoff series against Golden

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Speaker 1: State in twenty twenty two, that was kind of the

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Speaker 1: way that Golden State attacked him was just pick him

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Speaker 1: up full court, try to tire him out, stay home

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Speaker 1: off the ball, make him into a scorer, right. Jalen

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Speaker 1: Williams on Kyrie. Kyrie also torched him thirty one points

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Speaker 1: per game, sixty two percent from the field, forty three

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Speaker 1: percent from the three main thing that stood out to

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Speaker 1: me on tape is he's just a little too quick

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Speaker 1: for Jalen. Jalen's a really good athlete, but Kyrie is

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Speaker 1: a small guard with a ton of first step quickness.

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Speaker 1: So for Jalen, it's mostly going to be about sticking

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Speaker 1: to the game plan. What I mean by that is

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Speaker 1: like a lot of it's going to be more about

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Speaker 1: back pressure, doing the best you can to contest shots,

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Speaker 1: more stuff within the team concept defensively, because I think

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Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma City's gonna have to throw some extra

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Speaker 1: bodies in that direction from time to time. Chet's gonna

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Speaker 1: guard whoever the center is whether it's Daniel Gafford or

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Speaker 1: Derek Lively. The MAVs ran a lot of pick and

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Speaker 1: pop with Maxi Kleba in the regular season. When I

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Speaker 1: talk about Maxi Cleba being out of this series, I'm

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Speaker 1: primarily going to be focusing on Dallas on the defensive

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Speaker 1: end of the floor, because that's where I think his

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Speaker 1: greatest value is. But it's also a loss on the

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Speaker 1: offensive end because Gafford and Lively are not picking, and

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Speaker 1: they ran a lot of pick and pop withk Liba

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Speaker 1: against the Thunder during the regular season. Chet had some

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Speaker 1: mixed results in drop coverage against Dallas. We'll show you

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Speaker 1: some examples on the film when we get there, But

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Speaker 1: similar to Dort, I think Chet's capable of doing a

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Speaker 1: better job than he did during the regular season. I

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Speaker 1: think we'll see Shay guard Derek Jones Junior, and I

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Speaker 1: think we'll see Josh Gitty guard PJ. Washington, and for

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Speaker 1: both of them, same sort of thing. A lot of

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Speaker 1: lowman possessions where they're guy's going to be in the

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Speaker 1: corner spotting up and they're gonna need to help on

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Speaker 1: pick and roll, help in defensive rebounding situations, help on drive,

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Speaker 1: so it's gonna be a lot of help and rebound

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Speaker 1: responsibilities from those two guys. They'll primarily run deep drop.

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Speaker 1: They did some trapping with Chet, but they'll primarily run

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Speaker 1: deep drop. They're gonna when the MAVs try to attack

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Speaker 1: Josh Kitty in particular, I think they'll do a lot

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Speaker 1: of hedging and recovering. They did that in the regular

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Speaker 1: season just to prevent Giddy from getting into any unfavorable

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Speaker 1: matchups keys for both teams for Dallas get favorable matchups

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Speaker 1: for Luca possessions with more guard to guard screens and

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Speaker 1: then also pushing in transition to get cross matches. One

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Speaker 1: of the things that they had a lot of success

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Speaker 1: with Tape on Tape was stack, pick and roll, so

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Speaker 1: they'd have Luca as the main ball handler. They'd have

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Speaker 1: Gafford or Lively come up and set the screen, and

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Speaker 1: then as Luca comes downhill, they'd have Kyrie underneath the

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Speaker 1: basket backscreen Chet and then pop out to the three

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Speaker 1: point line. They were spamming that in the I want

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Speaker 1: to say it was in the third quarter of one

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Speaker 1: of the games that I was watching. I've watched a

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Speaker 1: bunch of film on this matchup today because I had

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Speaker 1: such a I had such a poor feel for who

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Speaker 1: I felt comfortable with in this series. I watched more

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Speaker 1: film on this one than I did any of the

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Speaker 1: other series I've watched this year or that I previewed.

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Speaker 1: In this playoff run and they but there was a

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Speaker 1: game I want to say it was the one the

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Speaker 1: Mavericks won big, and they they really leaned into stack,

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Speaker 1: pick and roll in like an early third quarter run

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Speaker 1: where they kind of started to pull away, and actually

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Speaker 1: I think it was like mid third quarter, not that

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Speaker 1: it matters anyway, they spammed it a bunch times in

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Speaker 1: a row, and they got a bunch of buckets out

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Speaker 1: of it from a bunch of different reads. So I

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Speaker 1: think they'll run that quite a bit on Oklahoma City side,

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Speaker 1: pressure Luca full court with Dort to eat into the

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Speaker 1: shot clock where Luca out less time to run action

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Speaker 1: that way too. Again, like the MAVs, when you can

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Speaker 1: kind of get them deep in the clock to where

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Speaker 1: some of their lesser offensive players are trying to make

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Speaker 1: plays with like four or five seconds on the shot clock,

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Speaker 1: that's where you can play them into their worst tendencies.

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Speaker 1: And then again I think it's going to take a

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Speaker 1: team defensive effort with kyrieus. You know, Jalen Williams in

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Speaker 1: particular like it just a little upright for Kyrie. But

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Speaker 1: we'll see he might hold up better in the postseason

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Speaker 1: with more physicality and more intensity. Also, don't be surprised

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Speaker 1: if we see a lot of case on Wallace to

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Speaker 1: try to deal with the Kyrie problem and then again

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Speaker 1: cleaning up the defensive glass. That's gonna be a big one.

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Speaker 1: Just in general, Dallas was really I know, they didn't

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Speaker 1: do a ton of damage to Oklahoma City in the

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Speaker 1: regular season on the offensive glass. They did a ton

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Speaker 1: of damage to the Clippers though in the first round

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Speaker 1: on the offensive glass. So that's going to be a

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Speaker 1: big one for Oklahoma City moving to Oklahoma City on offense.

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Speaker 1: As I said, I think we're gonna see a lot

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Speaker 1: more variety in the defensive looks that we see from Dallas.

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Speaker 1: I think they'll probably start Game one with Kyrie on Shay,

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Speaker 1: as crazy as that sounds, Derek Jones Junior on Jalen

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Speaker 1: Luca on Lou Dort, and then PJ. Washington on Josh

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Speaker 1: Giddy and then Daniel Gafford on Chet. I think that's

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Speaker 1: how they'll start, but we very well might see Kyrie

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Speaker 1: shift onto Josh Gitty and move PJ. Washington onto one

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Speaker 1: of their main two shot creators. I think that'll be

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Speaker 1: a more more of like a primary look we'll see

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Speaker 1: throughout the series is Derek Jones on Shae, PJ. Washington

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Speaker 1: on Jalen, and then Kyrie to Josh Gitty. But Kyrie's

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Speaker 1: been defending really well, and I wouldn't be surprised if

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Speaker 1: in their team film sessions and stuff and in their prep,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if Kyrie's speaking up to Jason

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Speaker 1: Kidd and saying, I want to guard one of those guys,

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Speaker 1: and we'll see if he ends up doing so. Again.

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Speaker 1: One of the things that's going to be interesting is

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Speaker 1: the Derek Jones PJ. Washington, Shay Jalen kind of dynamic.

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Speaker 1: I think you can go both ways. There's gonna be

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna start Derek Jones on Shay because

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Speaker 1: Derek Jones has been taking the higher leverage point of

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Speaker 1: attack assignments for the most part here down the tail

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Speaker 1: end of the season. But there's a case to be

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Speaker 1: made that PJ. Washington is actually a better matchup for Shay.

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Speaker 1: Shay's not as athletic downhill. Shae gets a ton of

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Speaker 1: drives to the basket, but it's more hesitation and it's

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Speaker 1: a lot of shiftiness. Jalen's like a real downhill threat,

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Speaker 1: And so part of me wonders if Derek Jones Junior

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Speaker 1: actually matches up better with Jalen Williams in terms of

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Speaker 1: his ability to beat him to spots, whereas Shay when

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Speaker 1: he's doing the herky jerky shifty kind of thing and

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Speaker 1: when he tries to get into your body and use

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Speaker 1: that off arm to kind of get separation to take

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Speaker 1: those short step backs, I wonder if PJ. Washington can

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Speaker 1: absorb that contact better and get and has better length

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Speaker 1: to get contests. So I bet you they kind of

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Speaker 1: tweaked that around back and forth a little bit. And again,

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Speaker 1: what you do is early in the series you kind

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Speaker 1: of let both guys have opportunities on both guys, and

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Speaker 1: then you make a read on tape like which guy's

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Speaker 1: doing a better job making which guy feel uncomfortable? The

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Speaker 1: Chet problem. So Chet's only three for nine on pick

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Speaker 1: and Pop three so far in this postseason, so I

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Speaker 1: expect him to start with Gafford Lively on Chet and

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Speaker 1: just run drop and then if Chet catches on the

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Speaker 1: three point line, they'll have Gafford or Lively just close

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Speaker 1: out as best as they can. But there will almost

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Speaker 1: certainly be at least one game in the series, if

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Speaker 1: not a few, or Chet's hitting and it could just

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Speaker 1: be like Miles Turner against the Bucks, or maybe he's

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Speaker 1: just hitting the entire series. And if that happens, that's

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Speaker 1: where the Maxi Kleeba loss is huge, because he's the

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Speaker 1: kind of versatile defender that can make that job a

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Speaker 1: lot more achieva achievable. So imagine you have Derek Jones

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Speaker 1: Junior on in PJ. Washington on Jalen Jalen Williams and

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Speaker 1: Shake Gills Alexander. If you're matched up on those two guys,

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Speaker 1: if you have Kleiba on Chet, then you can just

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Speaker 1: switch everything. Any Jalen Chet ball screen, just switch. You

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Speaker 1: trust Kleiba or do a decent job on Jalen. Right,

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Speaker 1: if it's a Shaye Chet ball screen, you just switch.

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Speaker 1: You trust Kleba to do a good job on Shay right.

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Speaker 1: And then on the flip side of that, you don't

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Speaker 1: think Chet's gonna bully PJ. Washington or Derrek Jones Junior. Right,

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Speaker 1: So like those are those are that's an easy fix

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Speaker 1: if Kleiba is available. But without Kliba, I think we'll

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Speaker 1: see Dallas try two different things. First, I think they

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Speaker 1: might just try putting the center on Josh Gitty. This

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Speaker 1: is a look they went with during the regular season

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Speaker 1: that I'll show you guys when we get to the tape.

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Speaker 1: But you just take Derek Lively or Josh Kitty which

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Speaker 1: everyone's on there, excuse me, Gafford and which everyone's on

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Speaker 1: the floor, and Giddy will just be sitting in the

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Speaker 1: corner and you just have them sit in the paint

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Speaker 1: and help. Then you move PJ. Washington to Chet Holmgren.

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Speaker 1: That's when you put Kyrie Irving on Shay and then

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Speaker 1: you basically switch any chet ball screen with PJ and Will.

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Speaker 1: That will at least allow you to prevent Chet from

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Speaker 1: breaking open on those picking pops. Now, one of the

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Speaker 1: things you have to be prepared for there. And I'll

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Speaker 1: show you guys this on tape as well. Okgahoma City

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Speaker 1: has seen this coverage before. Teams have been putting their

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Speaker 1: center on Giddy often throughout the regular season, and so

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Speaker 1: one of the things you'll see is they'll just bring

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Speaker 1: up whoever. They'll just bring up Giddy into the ball

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Speaker 1: screen instead of running it with Chet. In that case,

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Speaker 1: you live with the results. Just running deep drop Giddy

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Speaker 1: is not a good movement shooter, so he's not gonna

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Speaker 1: slip out of that ball screen quickly and knock down shots.

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Speaker 1: You just run your deep drop coverage. You chase with

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Speaker 1: Kyrie over the top on Shay, and you funnel into

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Speaker 1: to Gafford and if Giddy catches on the perimeter, you

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Speaker 1: just close out right. But that is what Oklahoma City

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Speaker 1: will do sometimes to counter putting the center on Giddy.

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Speaker 1: They'll just start setting ball screens with Giddy. The second

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Speaker 1: thing that I think we'll see them do is just

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Speaker 1: go super small and just go this is not ideal.

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Speaker 1: The ideal small ball group for Dallas would be Kleeba

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Speaker 1: and PJ. Washington together with Derek Jones and Kyrie and

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Speaker 1: Luca and hopefully the news with kleab his shoulder is

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Speaker 1: that he's able to come back in three weeks and

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Speaker 1: if Dallas can somehow win the series, then he returns

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Speaker 1: halfway through the conference finals, right that's what you're crossing

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Speaker 1: your fingers for. But in the short term, you got

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Speaker 1: to have some sort of small ball look. I think

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Speaker 1: you go with PJ. Washington at center, and then what

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Speaker 1: you do is you bring in either Dante Xhem or

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Speaker 1: Josh Green. Those are two of your stockier guards that

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Speaker 1: can guard up a little bit. And then you run

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Speaker 1: those two guys with Kyrie Luca and Derek Jones. And

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Speaker 1: then from there you put PJ on Chet, You put

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Speaker 1: Derek Jones on Shay or Jalen, and then you put

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Speaker 1: the other Dante Eximmer Josh Green on the other one

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Speaker 1: of those guys do more switching. Like I talked about,

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Speaker 1: that I think is another look that we'll see. I

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Speaker 1: think you can get away with going super small against

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma City in a way that you can't with some

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Speaker 1: other teams around the league, just because Oklahoma City is

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Speaker 1: pretty small. But definitely the Cleblad loss is going to

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Speaker 1: be big. But I think those are a couple of

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Speaker 1: looks that Dallas can go with to deal with the

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Speaker 1: Chet problem if he gets going and pick and pop predictions. Again,

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Speaker 1: I viewed this series as more or less of a

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Speaker 1: coin flip. Mac was healthy. I'd give Dallas a clear edge,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't get it. They wouldn't be a massive favorite,

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Speaker 1: but I'd pick Dallas and feel more comfortable with it.

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Speaker 1: But without him, I think it's a really tough series

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Speaker 1: to call either way, and I think the Vegas odds

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Speaker 1: are a clear sign of that as well. Both teams

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Speaker 1: have negative odds, so if you bet a hundred bucks,

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Speaker 1: you're winning less than one hundred on either team if

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Speaker 1: you bet them to win the series. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: pick Dallas still for three reasons. One, I've been really

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Speaker 1: impressed with Dallas' overall physicality on the frontline so far

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Speaker 1: in this postseason. Now, obviously Kleiba being out it affects that,

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Speaker 1: but they were the third best offensive rebounding team in

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Speaker 1: the first round. They grabbed thirty two percent of their

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Speaker 1: own misses, and as we know, that's a huge weakness

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Speaker 1: for Oklahoma City. I think they're twenty eight in defensive

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Speaker 1: rebounding in the regular season. Two, I think Luca is

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Speaker 1: a better player than Shae. He's bigger, he's stronger, and

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Speaker 1: he's substantially more playoff experience. And then three, I'm a

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Speaker 1: big believer in Jalen Williams's long term potential. I've said

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Speaker 1: this before. I think he has the potential to be

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Speaker 1: better than Shae, But I think Kyrie is a little

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Speaker 1: bit more prepared for this type of series in terms

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Speaker 1: of experience, and so those three things kind of give

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Speaker 1: me a tiny bit of an edge. Honestly, that gap

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Speaker 1: almost gets closed for me because I think Oklahoma City

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Speaker 1: does have more offensive skilled down the roster after their stars,

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Speaker 1: and Oklahoma City has an incredible home court advantage and

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Speaker 1: they're gonna get four home games in this series. So

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Speaker 1: it's still razor razor thin for me. I'm gonna pick

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Speaker 1: Dallas in six, but I don't feel good about it.

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Speaker 1: So we're just gonna do a quick series preview of

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Speaker 1: Cavs Celtics. We're running a little tight on time. Also,

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Speaker 1: this is by far the biggest long shot of any

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Speaker 1: of the second round series. The Celtics are favored at

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Speaker 1: minus twelve hundred, which is like a massive, massive number

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Speaker 1: for a second round playoff series. But I want to

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Speaker 1: give my two cents on just my outlook on the

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Speaker 1: series going in. We're gonna break it down and I'll

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Speaker 1: give a prediction at the end. You guys know, the

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Speaker 1: Joe before we get started. Subscribe to a brand new

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos.

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Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at underscore jsnlts you guys, don't

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Speaker 1: miss you announcements. Don't forget about a podcas feed wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcast under hoops Tonight. And the last,

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Speaker 1: but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions underneath this video

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Speaker 1: so that we can keep hitting mail bags throughout the

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Speaker 1: rest of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball.

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Speaker 1: So the Celtics won the season series two to one.

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Speaker 1: The only loss was in the Dean Wade game. That

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Speaker 1: was the game where the Calves were down by twenty

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Speaker 1: two nine minutes left. Dean Wade got red hot from three.

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Speaker 1: He had a tip dunk or it was either a

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Speaker 1: tipdunk or offensive rebound dunk. I can't even remember, but

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Speaker 1: he I vividly remember Drew Holiday not boxing him out.

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Speaker 1: That's all I remember is Drew not boxing out Dean

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Speaker 1: crash it in getting a dunk, and then on the

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Speaker 1: other end of the floor, Tatum attack Sterarius Garland on

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Speaker 1: a switch, gets a fadaway jump shot off, draws a foul.

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Speaker 1: They review it, they overturn it Calves pull off the

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Speaker 1: improbable comeback. The metrics from the season series one seventeen

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Speaker 1: point two offensive rating for the Celtics, a one to

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Speaker 1: thirteen point two offensive rebound or offensive rating for the Calves.

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Speaker 1: Celtics dominated the glass. They grabbed fifty four point five

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Speaker 1: perc of available rebounds, the Celtics one points off of

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Speaker 1: turnovers twenty point three to seventeen point nine per one

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Speaker 1: hundred possessions. Calves won second chance points fourteen point eight

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Speaker 1: to fourteen point one per one hundred possessions. Celtics won

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Speaker 1: fast break points thirteen point four to nine point three

427
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:18,960
Speaker 1: per one hundred, and the Celtics one points in the

428
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,160
Speaker 1: paint forty five point five to forty per one hundred.

429
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 1: On DraftKings, the Celtics are currently a minus twelve hundred favorite.

430
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 1: As I mentioned earlier, that's just a massive number. Let's

431
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 1: get into it very briefly. On both ends of the floor.

432
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 1: The Caves. On offense, the Celtics started Drew Holliday on him.

433
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 1: During the regular season. Mitchell played really well. He averaged

434
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 1: thirty points per game on fifty percent shooting. In the

435
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 1: two games he played just nine assists to six turnovers

436
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 1: in those two games, though Derek White well in all

437
00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,119
Speaker 1: likelihood guard Darius Garland. Huge factor in the series is

438
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 1: whether or not Jared Allen's actually going to play right

439
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 1: like I would have thought he would have played in

440
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,159
Speaker 1: Game seven if he was feeling up for it, and

441
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 1: he clearly didn't, So who knows if we'll see him

442
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 1: in this series. I'm going to proceed as though he does.

443
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:02,199
Speaker 1: I don't think whether or not he plays makes that

444
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 1: much of a difference in whether or not the Cavs

445
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 1: can win the series. But we're gonna break it down

446
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:09,119
Speaker 1: from the perspective of Jared playing with that. With Jared

447
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 1: Allen on the floor, I expect a bunch of random

448
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 1: stuff from Boston with their back line guys. So they

449
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 1: played a like they played a two games in Boston

450
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,359
Speaker 1: two days apart early in the season, and at the

451
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 1: end of the first game, one of the things that

452
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 1: Celtics did is they put Jason Tatum on Jared Allen

453
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 1: so that they could switch ball screens that involved Jared

454
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:30,679
Speaker 1: Allen and Tatum is a big, strong forward that can

455
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 1: kind of hang physically in that matchup right. Then two

456
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 1: days later they actually started and closed the game with

457
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum guarding Jared Allen. So if Jared Allen plays,

458
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 1: I think we may see that. And there are versions

459
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 1: of this where we may see that even with Evan Mobley,

460
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 1: where like they do something like if Allen's out and

461
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 1: Isaaca Corro starts, then you might see Al Horford guard

462
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 1: Isaacacorro and just kind of roam around in the paint

463
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 1: and then have Tatum guard Evan Mobley and switch ball screens.

464
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 1: So don't be surprised if we see a lot of

465
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 1: JANKI stuff like that from Boston where they put their

466
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 1: forwards on Cleveland Biggs that try to disrupt the Calves

467
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 1: ball screen attack. As we know, the Calves run a

468
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 1: lot of pick and roll. It's the primary driving force

469
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 1: of their offensive attack, and if you have the ability

470
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 1: to switch that action, it turns them into an ISO team.

471
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 1: And again, that's just a lot to ask for Donovan

472
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 1: Mitchell and Darius Garland in a large sample, But the

473
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: truth is we're like, it's gonna take a heroic performance

474
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 1: from Garland and Mitchell under any circumstances to keep this

475
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 1: series competitive. Moving to the Celtics on offense again, assuming

476
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 1: Allen is back. I think we'll see Max Struce on

477
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum. The Cavs defended Tatum well in the regular season.

478
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 1: They held him to thirty nine percent shooting. Again, the

479
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 1: game plan there is you want to shrink the gaps

480
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,640
Speaker 1: to take away his driving lanes and bait him into

481
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,360
Speaker 1: pull up jumpers. Tatum has cooled off, like way off

482
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 1: on his pull up jumper. Again. He got hot a

483
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 1: little bit there in like January, but he's just thirty

484
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 1: six percent on them post All Star Break or zero

485
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 1: point ninety four points per shot. Again, below a point

486
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 1: is pretty inefficient for pull up jumpers, especially on a

487
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 1: volume guy like Tatum who takes so many of them.

488
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: He shot just fourteen for thirty seven on them in

489
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 1: the first round, zero point ninety five points per shot.

490
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,119
Speaker 1: So we're on like three months of basketball now where

491
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 1: Tatum has been back to where he's typically been as

492
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 1: a pull up jump shooter, which is inefficient. And so

493
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 1: if you can sit in the driving lanes and bait

494
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 1: him into pull up jumpers, you'll bait him into an

495
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 1: inefficient series. I think we'll see Evan Mobley on Jylen Brown.

496
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 1: Did a good job contesting his pull up jumpers in

497
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 1: this matchup. However, he did give up some drives, some

498
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 1: quick slashing drives, and Brown is stronger than him, and

499
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 1: so when he gets those angles, he can kind of

500
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 1: get physical and get angles to the basket. So for mobilely,

501
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 1: it's about keeping a level stance, so not opening up

502
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 1: any driving lanes and then just giving more space you

503
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 1: can offer a contest when the shot does go up.

504
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 1: I think we'll see Donovan Mitchell on Derek White again,

505
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 1: a lot of two man game with Derek White and

506
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum, So it's gonna be about game plan discipline.

507
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 1: When Derek White has the ball, if they're not switching,

508
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 1: it's gonna be about chasing over the top. When Derek

509
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: White it sets those screens on Tatum, it's gonna be

510
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: about hedging and recovering and getting back to Derrek White.

511
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 1: Derek White is a good movement shooter, so closeouts are

512
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: gonna be key. Darius Garland on Drew Holliday. We know

513
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: Boston is gonna look to attack Garland in the post

514
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 1: with Drew, but it's kind of just the best version

515
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,400
Speaker 1: of those matchups anyway. And again, the Calves are gonna

516
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 1: have a lot of favorite. The Celtics are gonna have

517
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: a lot of favorable matchups over the course of the series.

518
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: That's it. The Calves are a really good defense. They're fast,

519
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: they play really hard. They defend the three point line

520
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 1: really well. They allowed the sixth fewest wide open threes

521
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 1: in the league this year. That's defender at least six

522
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,360
Speaker 1: feet away, and they're top twelve and both three point

523
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 1: attempts allowed and three pointers made per one hundred possession.

524
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 1: So they will play the Celtics into some cold streaks.

525
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 1: I mean when they won that game that they blew

526
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 1: the twenty two point lead. I did a full film

527
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 1: session on that in the regular season and so you

528
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 1: guys who follow the show will remember this. But the

529
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: Celtics missed every single jump shot they took in that

530
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: nine minute stretch, Like, and you make one of them,

531
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 1: you win the game. So like, they will play the

532
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 1: Celtics into some cold streaks. But I just think the

533
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: Celtics are gonna be able to play the Calves into many,

534
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 1: many more cold streaks. So I'm picking the Celtics in five.

535
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 1: I think the Calves will get one because I trust

536
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 1: their defense and they have a great home crowd. But

537
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 1: if they even managed to push this to six, I

538
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 1: would consider that to be an incredibly impressive achievement considering

539
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: the talent gap, So picking the Celtics in five. All right, guys,

540
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 1: that was a quick one. That's all I got for today.

541
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: I will see you guys later tonight after the final

542
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 1: buzzer of Nuggets Wolves for a game two instant reaction,

543
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 1: also covering Nick pacers in that game. I will see

544
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: you guys. Then the volume