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Speaker 1: Frank standfoll I am Greg Saucemen, we are joyed today
Speaker 1: for our number two of our first base Breakdown show
Speaker 1: with the Closer, Chris Fencher. What's up, Chris? What's going on? Guys?
Speaker 1: What's up? What's up? It's a boy, I'm back on
Speaker 1: the BFFs. We're gonna get it done baseball. I'm excited.
Speaker 1: I don't even wanted to baseball for a while. Little
Speaker 1: bit of Josh Bell over here, Get no worry, we'll
Speaker 1: get We'll get into Josh Bell in a little bit.
Speaker 1: I wanted to just ask over some of the stuff
Speaker 1: we've been We've hit on an hour one. I want
Speaker 1: to eat your quick takes on those first. Freddie Freeman
Speaker 1: or Paul gold Schmidt for you. Uh. For me, it's close,
Speaker 1: but I got gold Schmidt ahead of him. He's number
Speaker 1: one for me. Freddie too, Uh. I do like Freddie's
Speaker 1: I guess safety right now more than goldchmanth but Goldman
Speaker 1: has been doing it for years. Got a down year.
Speaker 1: I don't think, you know, he's due to decline at
Speaker 1: this age right now. Just worry a little bit about
Speaker 1: the move to St. Louis. Does it like does he
Speaker 1: need a transition there? You know, he's only ever played
Speaker 1: a Chase field in Arizona. Last year the humand or
Speaker 1: maybe it affected him early on in the season because
Speaker 1: he struggled as much as he did. But I worry
Speaker 1: a little bit about the move. I've always been a
Speaker 1: Freddie Freeman guy. I think they're very close. Yeah, they're close.
Speaker 1: I have Freddy Freeman once spot higher. I mean, Freddy
Speaker 1: Freeman is gonna get it done. The thing I like
Speaker 1: about Goldie is that listen, he's gonna hit in the
Speaker 1: heart of the lineup. So I don't think he's gonna
Speaker 1: lose too much. I know, obviously, line up there in St. Louis, Yeah,
Speaker 1: pretty good lineup. Uh. I know he's gonna be hit
Speaker 1: more homers in you know, Arizona, because that's the ballpark
Speaker 1: it is. But I still think he's gonna hit his
Speaker 1: thirty five, you know what I mean. I think he's
Speaker 1: gonna walk a ton, just like Freddie Freeman will. Uh.
Speaker 1: You can't go wrong either way. I think you know
Speaker 1: what I'm saying. What you're putting these guys one two,
Speaker 1: back to back or not. These are the top two guys,
Speaker 1: all right, very which side of the argument where you
Speaker 1: want for these guys? I think I feel on the
Speaker 1: Freddy Freeman side. It's very close. I'm not an island
Speaker 1: now once. Um, alright, crash, are you inter out of
Speaker 1: Codey Bellinger this year? I'm in. I mean I actually
Speaker 1: have him ahead, actually have him third. You know, I
Speaker 1: obviously live rizzo. Um, it's just the upside. He he's
Speaker 1: twenty three years old, right, so he's not even really
Speaker 1: hit his prime yet. He hasn't hit his stride. And
Speaker 1: I think this day is a great time to buy
Speaker 1: into buy into his value because I think He's obviously
Speaker 1: gonna bounce back, and I think he's gonna have a
Speaker 1: great career as well. I think he's gonna be one
Speaker 1: of the top first basement FeAs to come. Whereas Rizzos
Speaker 1: already knowing you know who you're getting from Rizzo, he
Speaker 1: hit his ceiling. I don't think there's much more room
Speaker 1: for him to grow. So I like the fact that
Speaker 1: I could get more out of Bellinger, And realistically, I
Speaker 1: think he gives you a nice floor to Bellinger. I
Speaker 1: think he gives you a decent floor if he could
Speaker 1: play a full you know, full season thing last year
Speaker 1: was kind of his floor, and we saw it right.
Speaker 1: I guess, like five home runs to sixty still give
Speaker 1: you like fourteen stolen bases. The counting stats weren't necessarily
Speaker 1: what we wanted them to be because I think, you know,
Speaker 1: him hitting in the middle of the Dodgers lineup, we
Speaker 1: want those counting stats for Bellinger to be at least
Speaker 1: eight eight five runs and you know, ninety plus Harbis,
Speaker 1: you don't necessarily there last you know, we gotta like
Speaker 1: a lot about Bellinger, and this is why I put
Speaker 1: him in that category those top guys he walked in
Speaker 1: he did play a full season when he walked seventy times.
Speaker 1: I think he's that's gonna also grow as people fear
Speaker 1: him more and he hits more homers and he becomes
Speaker 1: a staple in the lineup and everything like that. I
Speaker 1: think those walks will get higher the plate disciplines there, um,
Speaker 1: and he steals some bags as well, fifteen bags maybe, uh.
Speaker 1: And I think the average will also slowly creep up
Speaker 1: at you know, as he gets older. He's only twenty
Speaker 1: three years old. I think power is gonna a lot
Speaker 1: more powers about to come to heet. Thirty nine homers
Speaker 1: uh in a hundred thirty two games his rookie year.
Speaker 1: So the sibling is really high, you know, and you
Speaker 1: gotta like that, and look, this is this is the uh,
Speaker 1: this is the difference. Right last year, you know, Venture
Speaker 1: was downstairs telling me, I'm your bias. He's got the
Speaker 1: up siside he can hit thirty home runs and steal
Speaker 1: thirty basses. And I was like, like, you are you
Speaker 1: were absolutely crazy. And this is the difference because you know,
Speaker 1: Venture is still buying in on the potential of like
Speaker 1: these young guys, not necessarily just like looking at you
Speaker 1: know the fact that like statistical evidence, sometimes you gotta
Speaker 1: look at things outside of the statistical evidence, where you know,
Speaker 1: if that's what you trust in Bellender, if you trust
Speaker 1: his his prospect pedigree, in the fact that he's only No.
Speaker 1: Twenty three years old here, if you buy into that
Speaker 1: that upside, then there you go. That's difference. Like he
Speaker 1: a get It wouldn't surprise me. It wouldn't surprise me
Speaker 1: if he hit two sixty to seventy with forty bombs steels,
Speaker 1: that wouldn't surprise me. All right, last questions, Hoskins, what
Speaker 1: do you think? So here's the weird thing. I didn't
Speaker 1: put Reese Hoskins in my first big ranking because I
Speaker 1: play an espan and he's not eligible for first base yet.
Speaker 1: Wouldn't I rather drift him as an outfielder, Yes, you
Speaker 1: would rather drift him that outfielders, of course. But I
Speaker 1: do like Hoskins, like you were saying, I think he'll
Speaker 1: bounce back. He's a young player as well, he's only
Speaker 1: I think twenty six or something like that. Uh, I
Speaker 1: like him a little more an Olsen Olsen, I have seventh.
Speaker 1: I have Rizzo four Carpet, Matt Carpet, their five Joey
Speaker 1: Vado six, then Matt Olson seven, and that's what alt
Speaker 1: Reese Hoskins, where do you have a break on that list?
Speaker 1: Right behind Olsen eight? So he's very excited about I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: right behind Olson, I have a brave lower. I have
Speaker 1: a rail at eleven a brad in. In just one
Speaker 1: sec before we hit a break, we were hitting on
Speaker 1: Hayes's Aguilar, Frank and you were and we were talking
Speaker 1: about how Aguilar really a tale of two seasons there.
Speaker 1: But he has the power like Matt Olsen. He has
Speaker 1: a power um like a Reese Hoskins where he just
Speaker 1: go off. And I think that's why I kind of
Speaker 1: grouped them all together here. Do you think la could
Speaker 1: do it again? Or is there a chance that, like, hey,
Speaker 1: maybe he loses his fos Eric Thames right, like just
Speaker 1: Eric Favors did it last year? Like is that so
Speaker 1: out of the question. I don't know. I mean, he
Speaker 1: realistically ken, but it's been not just last year. What
Speaker 1: I really am looking at two is in seen when
Speaker 1: he did get the chance, but I didn't playfull season
Speaker 1: because they didn't really know about him yet and he
Speaker 1: didn't really take over till Thames got hurt. Uh. He
Speaker 1: also hit from major power pretty consistently, definitely in the
Speaker 1: short span that he played, not short to he played
Speaker 1: a hundred thirty three games. But you know he didn't
Speaker 1: even have three hundred bats, So I think the power
Speaker 1: is real. I think all that is real. Uh, he
Speaker 1: falls behind these other tow top tier guys. Me is
Speaker 1: for a few things. Now I play in points leads,
Speaker 1: so it's a little different. But like he doesn't walk
Speaker 1: a ton, he didn't walk, he didn't make improvements from
Speaker 1: he's growing seen definitely, And the doubles on the left
Speaker 1: over a power here that you want to see. You know,
Speaker 1: he had twenty five doubles last year. That's not enough
Speaker 1: to be in that top ten. Doubles and walks, I
Speaker 1: think to the most important things I've been doing for
Speaker 1: fifteen years, I'd say, And the two things that I
Speaker 1: noticed the most is that guys will you know, home
Speaker 1: runs will different. Look at matcop one year at eight,
Speaker 1: one year, at fifteen, one year, thirty nine, like they're
Speaker 1: all of the board. Homer's sometimes it's it's luck factor,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe he didn't get a lot of fly
Speaker 1: balls that year. He had an unlucky year. Whatever the
Speaker 1: case may be. But usually doubles and walks stay consistent
Speaker 1: throughout the player's career. Those things don't really change much.
Speaker 1: If they hit a lot of double, they hit a
Speaker 1: lot of doubles. If they walk a lot, they walk
Speaker 1: a lot. And those are two key factors in one
Speaker 1: knowing that pat discipline, which is very important for a
Speaker 1: hitter to stay in the league and be a good hitter.
Speaker 1: And too, if you hit a lot of doubles a
Speaker 1: lot of times, that translate to homers in the future. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know a guy that hitst doubles and fifteen homes,
Speaker 1: you can almost project he's gonna hit twenty five homes
Speaker 1: in the future. Um. And the other thing I see
Speaker 1: consistently is that it's hard to judge the young guys.
Speaker 1: The guys you know that you know what they're gonna do.
Speaker 1: They've been playing for a while, you pretty much know
Speaker 1: what you got right. The younger guys I like. I
Speaker 1: like to see little things that stand out, like those
Speaker 1: things like walks and doubles, and it's easy to project
Speaker 1: by the third year usually that's when they start breaking out.
Speaker 1: So I'm looking for guys like that who have played
Speaker 1: a couple of years away, like and Aglare played almost
Speaker 1: two years. Maybe he's due for his breakout. He is
Speaker 1: twenty years old, he's a little older than a normal
Speaker 1: breakout player. But I think you're seeing signs of it
Speaker 1: in the growth in his years. And that's what I
Speaker 1: look at. I look at the growth like that, and
Speaker 1: these things usually stay consistent majority of the time. They're
Speaker 1: all outliers. Of course, I like to find things consistent,
Speaker 1: especially in baseball. I don't just look at last year stats.
Speaker 1: I look at you know, what has this guy done
Speaker 1: his career? Was he done in the minors? And I
Speaker 1: try to come up with, you know, a possible breakout
Speaker 1: year for these young players, which makes sense because and
Speaker 1: that's why he would like a guy like Cody Bellinger,
Speaker 1: right like third year breakouts. This is his third year
Speaker 1: and he's still you know, he's only gonna be twenty three,
Speaker 1: twenty four this year. So I can see what you're
Speaker 1: saying there with the with the third year breakout Greg.
Speaker 1: You know, the more I look into Aler, I think
Speaker 1: I'm kind of talking myself into him a little bit here.
Speaker 1: I realized the second half. I mean, look, it was
Speaker 1: his first full seasons a full time player. Is it
Speaker 1: outside the realm of possibility that he just kind of
Speaker 1: got tired, he wore down a little bit as the
Speaker 1: season went on. I mean, he was awesome in that
Speaker 1: first half. I mentioned to p S in the first
Speaker 1: half of the season. He was one of only nine
Speaker 1: players last year with thirty five home runs and RBIs
Speaker 1: that used to be like the mark of the slugger.
Speaker 1: That's what we're looking for, thirty five homers RBI. Only
Speaker 1: Knocke players did that last year. Hazew's aglar was one
Speaker 1: of them. Um, the plate discipline we mentioned, he got better.
Speaker 1: He he walked two percent more from cut the strike
Speaker 1: out right down by cent and we all love the
Speaker 1: Brewer's lineup, right, So why don't we love Hazel. I
Speaker 1: just think I think I think we're kind of just
Speaker 1: being ages here with it. And people remember what they
Speaker 1: saw last most, which was like the second half where
Speaker 1: he kind of took a step back. You could go
Speaker 1: it could go two ways. Now, did he get tired,
Speaker 1: did he kind of wear down because it was his
Speaker 1: first full season, or did pitchers kind of figure them
Speaker 1: out a little bit in the second half. That would
Speaker 1: mean that means you're you're more out on Haze, but
Speaker 1: he he's always been a guy that you know. We
Speaker 1: looked at the bad ball data and we were like,
Speaker 1: if they just gave him a chance to play every day,
Speaker 1: he could be awesome because he's been over a forty
Speaker 1: year cent hard hit rate, so he's mashing the ball
Speaker 1: and he's hitting five balls. Those two things combined, especially
Speaker 1: in a ballpark like Miller Park, it's gonna lead to
Speaker 1: great things. He should do his thing. I wouldn't reach
Speaker 1: on him. I would try to grab meta value that
Speaker 1: kind fair enough. You know, here's the the NFBC a
Speaker 1: DP venture. You're getting a pick a d about okay.
Speaker 1: Right around his ranges, Matt Carpenter is going eight picks higher, Jose,
Speaker 1: everybody who's going seven picks later, Matt Ole's actually going
Speaker 1: thirty picks later. Really see, I like Olsen's value much
Speaker 1: better than and I was just talking about this SEU
Speaker 1: during the break Greg NFBC a DP. It's not the
Speaker 1: end all be all. We kind of like use this
Speaker 1: as a guide here to let us know where first
Speaker 1: basement are going, where all players are going. Actually, but
Speaker 1: Hay going thirty picks higher on average than Matt Olson.
Speaker 1: But in the two expert drafts that we see gun
Speaker 1: on last week the Labor Draft and right now is
Speaker 1: going on the tout War Draft at hold, Matt Olsen
Speaker 1: has gone higher than Hazel in both of those drafts.
Speaker 1: Is that tells you the experts are more in on
Speaker 1: add Olsen than they are and a guy like those experts. Yes,
Speaker 1: they're both redrafts. Okay, So I think that's just basically
Speaker 1: them saying, I think the ceiling is much higher for
Speaker 1: this guy. He's twenty four years old. Really, what what's
Speaker 1: the what's the difference if you're projecting Hayes's agil and
Speaker 1: Matt Olson Greg, what's the difference? There's not big differences
Speaker 1: because if you look at the projection system on fan
Speaker 1: Grass for for the batting average for it ranges from
Speaker 1: two forty two to two fifty four. Why is that
Speaker 1: his batting average when last year he had two seventy
Speaker 1: four and the year before that he had two sixty five.
Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying, like, why are we projecting
Speaker 1: his batting labbing? Is batting average to be so love half?
Speaker 1: I think they take that more into account obviously, Yeah,
Speaker 1: But what does the first half just not matter. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm kind of asking like devil obviously also most to
Speaker 1: be fair, most projections. Usually people are very conservative, right like,
Speaker 1: especially on these experts totally you know sites definitely let
Speaker 1: me get away. I didn't really answer your question. I
Speaker 1: know that, Um, I don't think the difference between Olsen
Speaker 1: and Ail is really that different. It's not I agree
Speaker 1: with you, but in the NFBC A d P if
Speaker 1: I'm getting Olson thirty picks later, we ended up exactly value.
Speaker 1: All right, let me move on from these like power
Speaker 1: hitting the players that you also you have this tier
Speaker 1: Frank some more of the week of like as there's
Speaker 1: a little bit of everything. When I think of those guys,
Speaker 1: I spemfically think of Joey Vato and I specifically think,
Speaker 1: who are you can for years for these two guys,
Speaker 1: you're able to just kind of count on one hand,
Speaker 1: like exactly what you would expect that of them. Poblem
Speaker 1: was last year whosday jose Brey. You well, he gave
Speaker 1: less home runs and less runs scored and games so
Speaker 1: it was low, but the average was less than ever
Speaker 1: the ov P was less than you guys know why
Speaker 1: he only played a hundred and twenty games. By the way,
Speaker 1: I saw your note. Yes, uh he uh, he had
Speaker 1: testicular torsion surgery. It's very bad. I'm not gonna go
Speaker 1: into the details you I've tweeted up the link before
Speaker 1: I asked about that. I think it's pretty self. Hey,
Speaker 1: doc is Jo over his testicular torsion. Yeah, we're gonna
Speaker 1: do that tomorrow. Anybody listening watching out there right now?
Speaker 1: I think you can empathize with Jose. He missed about
Speaker 1: a month of the season because of that, and then
Speaker 1: he was shut down because of a thigh injury when
Speaker 1: he came back in September. But yeah, Jo, like you
Speaker 1: kind of got to give the guy a break for
Speaker 1: last year. No, yeah, Well, let me ask you this though,
Speaker 1: what was his highest value in his career? Last year
Speaker 1: he was being drafted as his hot at his high.
Speaker 1: I think he was coming off because three homers. Honestly,
Speaker 1: I think he was going like the third fourth roun
Speaker 1: lest year. Saying happened at his first season two. We
Speaker 1: had thirty six homes and a hundred seven rives. So
Speaker 1: he always the same guy, right, He always had about
Speaker 1: thirty home runs. He always played every game and it
Speaker 1: always better around three D. He was like, So between
Speaker 1: him and Rizzo, I don't think it's that different. So
Speaker 1: if you play in points, I understand that. In Broo,
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't really think here that much different. Well,
Speaker 1: my point was that pretty much across the board, I
Speaker 1: know he played less games. Everything was down, and you
Speaker 1: could say the same thing Joey Vado were last year.
Speaker 1: Across the board. Everything wasn't just down. I mean it
Speaker 1: was down significantly for Joey Batoum by far the worst
Speaker 1: season since his injury. Play season. It was horrific for
Speaker 1: Joey Vado. The big question is can one or both
Speaker 1: of these guys bounce back this year. With Jose Brady
Speaker 1: I mentioned him first, I'll start there. He had trade
Speaker 1: rumors around surround him all season last year, wait even
Speaker 1: to be traded. It never happened. Do those trade roums
Speaker 1: go away this year? I don't know. But Frank, you
Speaker 1: keep trying to look into personal stories. The testicular evulsions,
Speaker 1: whatever it is called torsion. You're tested here torsion that
Speaker 1: that was obviously an issue. Maybe maybe these trade rumors
Speaker 1: weren't exactly helpful either. You've got some help on the
Speaker 1: way though. You're you're all over. You're all over Jose
Speaker 1: Bread this year, do you Is it because you expect
Speaker 1: him to bounce back a little bit or you're just
Speaker 1: really in love with the price? Yeah, I really do
Speaker 1: like the prize. I think that's what it's come down to.
Speaker 1: It's a combination both because I do think he's gonna
Speaker 1: bounce back as well. You're getting Jose Brew right now,
Speaker 1: pick eight six. He's gonna be after aglare you know
Speaker 1: as much as you know we just spoke about a
Speaker 1: Jose Brave was a guy that we've seen do it
Speaker 1: for four or five years already. So I really do
Speaker 1: trust the safety there. I think he's safe for to
Speaker 1: eighty plus batting average, thirty home runs, eight plus runs,
Speaker 1: not plus r B. I I do think the White
Speaker 1: Sox lineup, it's not gonna be great, but it's gonna
Speaker 1: be better than years past once Eloi Amenez gets there.
Speaker 1: Like you know, Eloy Hamnn is also a native of Cuba.
Speaker 1: I think these guys are actually gonna kind of like eink,
Speaker 1: They're gonna hit it all together. Well, I mean, remember
Speaker 1: Jose Breve was also from Cuba. I I think that's
Speaker 1: gonna help. I think it's gonna help the White Sox lineup.
Speaker 1: He's typically a very slow starter. I've used this in
Speaker 1: my analysis in the past of Jose braw He's from Cuba,
Speaker 1: and what I've said about like Latin American players is
Speaker 1: I think that the cold weather might affect some of
Speaker 1: these guys. So Jose Brew in March and April playing
Speaker 1: in you know if the six weather in Chicago, I
Speaker 1: think that affects him. So he's a slow stays. He's
Speaker 1: safe man, and I like the price that you're getting
Speaker 1: that right now. Joey Votto is also safe. Until last
Speaker 1: year we got Chris Bencher. We find out what happens
Speaker 1: if you can bounce back when we come back. Fantasy
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Speaker 1: little bit on Josie a brave bouncing back here getting
Speaker 1: good value it him Joey Bottom or not. Joey Votto
Speaker 1: is in the n FBC going off pick sixty eight
Speaker 1: as the fifth first basement off the board, before Matt Carpenter,
Speaker 1: after Cody Bellinger. This is despite him having essentially the
Speaker 1: worst season of his career. It's as twelve home runs
Speaker 1: under seventy runs scored under seventy ribbies, struck out more
Speaker 1: than he has in three years, walked less than he
Speaker 1: had the year before. You know what kind of it's
Speaker 1: around his career average, of course, listen, it was hardly
Speaker 1: year now again is OBP was still four UM but
Speaker 1: for all of this vers it was a bad year.
Speaker 1: Venture does that continue this year? Does a power go
Speaker 1: back up? Or at thirty what five years have we
Speaker 1: seen the end? Have we seen the end of the
Speaker 1: best of Joey Bada See? That's yeah, that's why this
Speaker 1: is probably one of the hottest guys to judge UM
Speaker 1: thirty five years old, So you would think he might
Speaker 1: maybe he's just declining in power, right, He's still walking,
Speaker 1: he's still got a great eye, still got career played
Speaker 1: this have been hit too, eighty four, the average still last,
Speaker 1: he's still got the bat. I think you could find
Speaker 1: value in the guy. I just don't know if you're
Speaker 1: gonna find value that you used to get. I don't.
Speaker 1: I think those days of him being the best or
Speaker 1: a top three first basement are gone. I think he
Speaker 1: could still be a top five third basement first baseman.
Speaker 1: But I just think you're not, like you said, you're
Speaker 1: not getting him at great value right now because he's
Speaker 1: the fifth ranked first basement off the board. I would
Speaker 1: take Carpenter of him, That's just me. I'll take I
Speaker 1: think Carpenters still has you know, what he's been doing
Speaker 1: still left in him. I think Votto is losing the power.
Speaker 1: I think that you know, it's no more lineup is better? Right? Well,
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna hit thirty plus anymore. I
Speaker 1: think he might give you twenty five. If he gives
Speaker 1: you twenty five, then then then maybe he produces them.
Speaker 1: Of course, of course, I was just gonna ask, what
Speaker 1: do you think of the fair projection for home runs
Speaker 1: this year? For Joe? I told you that all four
Speaker 1: projection systems on fan Graphs had him projected for the
Speaker 1: same home run amount? What is it? Already looked at it? No,
Speaker 1: I just went to Matt Carpenter because I was gonna
Speaker 1: get We mentioned Matt carpon us. I was gonna get
Speaker 1: it him. So I haven't looked at if I told
Speaker 1: you all four had the home run total at the
Speaker 1: same amount, what would you say? It is? Venture? Alright?
Speaker 1: So al right there, so I vottot give you twenty
Speaker 1: two homers five. But it wasn't just that, right like,
Speaker 1: I need the runs to go back up. I need
Speaker 1: the RBI, I need all of that to go back
Speaker 1: have they have the most conservative one here has the
Speaker 1: runs at eighty seven and the RB I s at
Speaker 1: eight plus. It's fantastic, is it? Though it's a fifth
Speaker 1: round pick. You want eight RB, guys, you want plus?
Speaker 1: So good? A hundred to RBIs last year, to be fair,
Speaker 1: he only had five hundred of bats. He usually has
Speaker 1: like five sixty. All right, hey, Frank, we missed some
Speaker 1: time last year. He played a hundred and forty five games. Frank,
Speaker 1: why did this happen? Right? Like, the hard hit for
Speaker 1: enage for Joey Vanno was high. It was the highest
Speaker 1: of his career. Well, he didn't hit as many flyballs
Speaker 1: that he did the year before. The line drive rate
Speaker 1: went up like it was massive line drive rate. That's great.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's gonna help you for batting average is
Speaker 1: gonna give you doubles like butting average he went down overall, um,
Speaker 1: but which is weird. You know, the batting average going
Speaker 1: down is weird because he did hit he hit two
Speaker 1: eighty four, but the hard hit rate went up, so
Speaker 1: he got unlucky and the line drive rate wast It
Speaker 1: was three thirty three, which sounds good. But he's yeah, now,
Speaker 1: but that's low for him. Then here I'm saying, so
Speaker 1: he's gonna I think the ball profile. The big number
Speaker 1: that you see, it's ratio all the way down. Nine
Speaker 1: and a half percent was the home run of fly
Speaker 1: ball ratio. He plays the Great American Ballpark, so it's
Speaker 1: like it should bounce back, like it should go up right.
Speaker 1: Kind of a crazy he dude too, because I like,
Speaker 1: I've listened to podcasts where people are talking about you know,
Speaker 1: you know Saras that was he used to be with
Speaker 1: Fan Graphs. He's now with the Athletic Um. You know.
Speaker 1: He he writes great articles. And he also took it
Speaker 1: to interview some of these players and talks to them
Speaker 1: about some some of the advanced analytics and stuff. And
Speaker 1: apparently he interviewed Joy Vado one year and asked him like, oh,
Speaker 1: you know, what was going on, Like you made you
Speaker 1: made some adjustments from like your first year, first half
Speaker 1: to second half. You were completely different. He was like,
Speaker 1: oh yeah, you know, you know, I was just I
Speaker 1: was just trying something different. He's like, yeah, it was
Speaker 1: no big deal, even you know, even if my production stuffer.
Speaker 1: He's like, oh, yeah, I was just trying something different.
Speaker 1: Like he doesn't he changes at bat his stance every
Speaker 1: at bat. Yeah, that's something that I've heard about it
Speaker 1: is like depending on who he faces to like change
Speaker 1: his batting stands based on who he's facing. Motivation has
Speaker 1: been a question for Joey Vado the past couple of seasons. Now,
Speaker 1: this is what I wonder about, the fact that this
Speaker 1: might be one of the better Cincinnati Read teams that
Speaker 1: he's played for over the past let's say five years.
Speaker 1: Does motivation kind of help him bounce back? If he
Speaker 1: looks at this team and he's like, all right, you
Speaker 1: know they traded roles and starting pictures. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: they still don't have a legitimate ace, but they you know,
Speaker 1: they have better pitching than they have had had in
Speaker 1: years passed. They have Ya c l Plea, Scooter Janette
Speaker 1: has played well over the past couple of years. They
Speaker 1: have a good lineup On paper, the Red should be
Speaker 1: an improved team. Is that enough for Joey Votto to
Speaker 1: look at it and say, all right, I'm gonna turn
Speaker 1: it on again this year? Because to me, he kind
Speaker 1: of strikes me as one of those guys where he's like,
Speaker 1: if I want to turn it on and hit twenty
Speaker 1: five bombs with a three batting average, I can't. I
Speaker 1: just kind of need the motivation, I think they I
Speaker 1: don't know if it's motivation. More like, listen, he's not
Speaker 1: gonna want to do poorly. You know, he's still playing
Speaker 1: in the MLB. He still wants to end his career nicely, right,
Speaker 1: he still wants to have a nice, solid career for
Speaker 1: a normal player. I would say that's probably right, that's
Speaker 1: probably kind of here's the thing, Okay, So what's the
Speaker 1: first thing to go for a player when they're old?
Speaker 1: Power right usually and played discipline? I would say out more, Yeah,
Speaker 1: because when you use the power, you lose that fear
Speaker 1: that the picture has of you, and they'll walk you less. Right. So,
Speaker 1: but here's the thing. He still walked at an insane clip,
Speaker 1: uh and still hits for good average. This guy is
Speaker 1: gonna might lose the power, but it's gonna translate, I think,
Speaker 1: to doubles. I think he's gonna hit more doubles less Homer's,
Speaker 1: which is almost kind of the kind of even things
Speaker 1: out for him a little bit. The walkers still be,
Speaker 1: the average still be because this guy's not only was
Speaker 1: a very good power hitter, this guy is a pure hitter,
Speaker 1: just a great hitter. And I think that stays because
Speaker 1: great hitters, they're still gonna hit for average. I think long,
Speaker 1: you know, into their career, I think you're just gonna
Speaker 1: lose some of the power. He's not gonna hit thirty
Speaker 1: five bombs anymore. He's gonna hit five something like that.
Speaker 1: But maybe he'll give you doubles. He's still valuable play.
Speaker 1: The problem is where you're drafting him. He's way better value.
Speaker 1: He's way better for point. Yeah, he's way better for points.
Speaker 1: Leads O b P in the outwards draft is O
Speaker 1: b P rhodo. They use ov P instead of batting average.
Speaker 1: And he went at the end of the third round. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that makes sense because he's gonna have an OP over FO. Yeah,
Speaker 1: bad average. I still would project that he's probably closer
Speaker 1: to three hundred this year. But and you bank on
Speaker 1: him getting back to home runs and giving you the
Speaker 1: ninety plus and runs and RBIs it is. It's definitely
Speaker 1: an outlier. I don't know that I could bank on
Speaker 1: him giving you twenty five and ninety and ninety Again,
Speaker 1: the county set should be there with that lineup, right,
Speaker 1: you hope? So he plays a full season, abody, I've
Speaker 1: given you my two guys from this tier that I
Speaker 1: like most. Everything kind of you know, statistical evidence, what
Speaker 1: you expect from this this year draft price. All of
Speaker 1: those things included who are the two guys that you
Speaker 1: like most from this tier? So I don't know. It
Speaker 1: includes Rizzo, Haskins, Bellinger, vado A, Bray You, Daniel Murphy, Carpenter,
Speaker 1: Olson A. So I don't want to answer until I
Speaker 1: get to Murphy and Carpenter, because I've heard everything, but
Speaker 1: all these guys, I think it's only fair to get
Speaker 1: into Carpenter and Murphy. That's cool. So Matt Carpenter last
Speaker 1: year by far at a career high and in everything,
Speaker 1: thirty six home runs, eleven hundred and eleven runs scored,
Speaker 1: eighty one r v I, which is not a career high,
Speaker 1: is the second highest of his career, shug out more
Speaker 1: than ever the average was, the OVP was actually slightly down.
Speaker 1: You saw a influx of power. Clearly he was a
Speaker 1: man on a mission. After batting one fifty five April
Speaker 1: with two home runs, when US two nineties seven in
Speaker 1: May with five long runs before the weather got hot,
Speaker 1: and so did Matt Carpenter before of course getting ice
Speaker 1: cold in September, August and September. September he had in
Speaker 1: one seventy m so that Carpenter a bit streaky. Besides
Speaker 1: the extremely extremely hot summer. Here's a big number of
Speaker 1: that Carpenter and I'm sure Franks would point this out.
Speaker 1: The hard hit percentage, I believes the highest in baseball
Speaker 1: at fort years. His launch angle must have been different
Speaker 1: last year. The whole run of actively trying to hit more,
Speaker 1: the whole run off eyeball ratio by far a career
Speaker 1: high of nineteen percent. I'm not not that crazy number,
Speaker 1: but his career, his career home run a five ball
Speaker 1: ratio eleven and a half percent all the way up
Speaker 1: to nineteen last year. The line drive percentage over twenty
Speaker 1: six percent. Last year, forty seven percent of his balls
Speaker 1: and play were fly balls compared to twenty six point
Speaker 1: four where a groundball rate. Matt Carpenter is a name.
Speaker 1: It's been around a long time. We talked about Joey
Speaker 1: Votto being thirty five. Matt Carpenters thirty three years old.
Speaker 1: He's not a spring chicken anymore either. Didn't play a
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty six games last year, uh, the most
Speaker 1: he's played since. Matt carpent has been a guy who
Speaker 1: has first base eligibility and third to base eligibility. He
Speaker 1: is somebody that we used to life with the consistency,
Speaker 1: but we found boring. We found a guy that was like,
Speaker 1: all right, he's not gonna be that thirty home run guy,
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, he popped for thirty six
Speaker 1: last fright, I'll start with you for this one. What
Speaker 1: do you make him? Matt Carpenter in So, based on
Speaker 1: the battle Ball pro file we had seen the past
Speaker 1: couple of years and talking about seen a lot of
Speaker 1: people last year, we're projecting him to kind of like
Speaker 1: take that next step in terms of home runs, because look,
Speaker 1: if you're hitting the ball that hard and hitting it
Speaker 1: in the air that often, he had a battle ball
Speaker 1: profile that reminded you of someone that should be hitting
Speaker 1: thirty five home runs. So he finally actually did that
Speaker 1: and scored a hundred and eleven runs. And he's gonna
Speaker 1: lead off and the Cardinals line up again, which is
Speaker 1: arguably not even arguably it's better, it's definitely better. And
Speaker 1: he scored a hundred eleven runs last year, and now
Speaker 1: Paul Goldschman is part of that lineup. I don't know
Speaker 1: that I would project from hit thirty six home runs
Speaker 1: again this year, like he's one year older, like maybe
Speaker 1: thirty to thirty two, but he's gonna walk a lot. Um.
Speaker 1: I do worry a little bit about the strikeout rate,
Speaker 1: which was the highest of his career. So um, the
Speaker 1: batting average isn't you know where it used to be,
Speaker 1: like in the two seventy range. He's probably you know,
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna live in that kind of like,
Speaker 1: but he's gonna give you thirty home runs. He's gonna
Speaker 1: score a boatload of runs in that lineup, guaranteed a
Speaker 1: hundred runs soon. He can stay healthy, like that's been
Speaker 1: a big problem from the past couple of years, you know,
Speaker 1: dealing with like back and like shouldering issues. It feels
Speaker 1: like something is over, always flaring up. But he told
Speaker 1: you last year that when he stays healthy and you know,
Speaker 1: he's good enough to swing that bat the way that
Speaker 1: he can hundred fifty six games, he had thirty six
Speaker 1: home runs. So assuming assuming health, I think that he
Speaker 1: can come close to the production that he did last year,
Speaker 1: maybe not the same power output. What he's doing I
Speaker 1: think here is the average went down. I think he said,
Speaker 1: he's sacrificing average a little bit, because it's not like
Speaker 1: he hit an unbelievable average anyway. He's sacrificing a little
Speaker 1: bit for power exactly. That's what he's doing. So that's okay,
Speaker 1: and maybe not thirty six. He can't project thirty six.
Speaker 1: I would say, like you said, five to thirty. But
Speaker 1: here's the thing that he's done consistently his whole career.
Speaker 1: Walk a lot and hit a ton of doubles, two
Speaker 1: things I told you everything else, he hasn't really been
Speaker 1: in yap consistent with it. And the thing and the
Speaker 1: only seasons he really hasn't scored a hundred runs so
Speaker 1: close to it is when he's been injured. When he's
Speaker 1: played close to full season, he scored a hundred runs,
Speaker 1: and he will score a hundred runs this year if
Speaker 1: plays full season. This guy is if you think about it.
Speaker 1: But so I was looking at the home runs. Really
Speaker 1: he's as consistent as they come. Sure, one of the
Speaker 1: reasons I was off Matt Carpenter last year. She's battling
Speaker 1: the shoulders injuries that just seemed to sap him with
Speaker 1: some of that power and seemed to keep him out
Speaker 1: of the line up. You're just like, I don't want
Speaker 1: to deal with this crap. And they've been a hundred
Speaker 1: of these six games, and obviously the three say healthy.
Speaker 1: One more first basement in this tier before we kind
Speaker 1: of rank before I'll give you my pick some you
Speaker 1: know yours'll get adventures too, and that is Daniel Murphy
Speaker 1: who you'll probably play him at second base because he
Speaker 1: has the second base of eligibility and it's just obviously
Speaker 1: a harder position middle winfield. But Daniel Murphy goes over
Speaker 1: to Colorado, and last year it's tougher to figure out.
Speaker 1: He obviously came into the year not healthy at all,
Speaker 1: so we were all off, everyone loving to deal with him.
Speaker 1: Played a bunch of games for the Gnats and then
Speaker 1: went over to the Cubs. It was never really consistent.
Speaker 1: It was a very weird year. Um, it just didn't
Speaker 1: really strike out, walked less than he has in a
Speaker 1: long time. Average great was actually worst it has been
Speaker 1: a very long time. Yeah, it's still good. It's still good. Um,
Speaker 1: ob waited out. It's only gonna go up in the
Speaker 1: Colorado Yeah, of course, ob v way down and the
Speaker 1: power of South. He played sample do you guys just
Speaker 1: take this year and throw it out For Daniel Murphy,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't throw it out. I I do to to
Speaker 1: a certain extent. Definitely wasn't healthy early on. Took him
Speaker 1: longer to come back than people expected dealing with that
Speaker 1: knee injury last year. He's a little bit older now,
Speaker 1: but he again, he was another one of these guys
Speaker 1: that bought into the launch angle revolution over the past
Speaker 1: couple of years. With when he left the New York match.
Speaker 1: You kind of saw him started in that playoff run
Speaker 1: with the Mets when they made the World Series, and
Speaker 1: then ended up signing over with the Washington Nationals, which
Speaker 1: was a great bargain deal for them because the next thing,
Speaker 1: you know, the guy's hitting over three consistently, and he's
Speaker 1: saitting twenty plus home runs and he's driving people in.
Speaker 1: The batting average is absolutely real. It was you know,
Speaker 1: to average are better for three straight seasons. His expected
Speaker 1: batting average during each of those seasons was three or
Speaker 1: five or better. So normally, Greg, I tell you expected
Speaker 1: batting average is lower. It's been right there. For Daniel Murphy,
Speaker 1: it's been right around where he's at. And you know
Speaker 1: last year was actually up, so he's no Fluke three
Speaker 1: batting average during those three years is second in baseball
Speaker 1: only two joseale to A. It makes a ton of contact.
Speaker 1: He doesn't strike out eight percent contact rate during the
Speaker 1: past three years. Um. Last year again like the Eggs,
Speaker 1: velocity and hard hit rate was down, but I think
Speaker 1: a lot of that had to do with coming back
Speaker 1: from the injury. You go over to Colorado, It's been
Speaker 1: proven Colorado is absolutely one of these uh, one of
Speaker 1: these ballparks, one of these environments where your battu is
Speaker 1: gonna go up, your batting average is gonna go up.
Speaker 1: It's absolutely been proven. That's a huge If we if
Speaker 1: we're talking about a guy that's been a three six
Speaker 1: hitter Greg collectively over the past three seasons while he's
Speaker 1: been with Washington, the sky is yeah, Colorado right like
Speaker 1: he can he can legitimately hit three third four. I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna project in that way. I haven't projected for
Speaker 1: three ten, but based on what we've seen the past
Speaker 1: couple of years, if he is healthy this year and
Speaker 1: the knee injuries kind of behind him, he can he
Speaker 1: can hit three thirty. Daniel Mury. Daniel Murphy going right
Speaker 1: after Joey Vado according to the NFBC, so he would
Speaker 1: slot in before Matt Carpenter. I like Matt Carpenter, I
Speaker 1: like I'm a point lead guy. Though I like him
Speaker 1: more than those guys just because of the second base eligibility,
Speaker 1: or I think the second base position is kind of weak,
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, if I draft him, probably not using
Speaker 1: him at first base, but based on a second base eligibility,
Speaker 1: I would draft him ahead, like if I was in
Speaker 1: the fifth round. Then I'm looking at Daniel Murphy, Joey Vado,
Speaker 1: and Carpenter, and I'm making a decision. I'm taking Daniel
Speaker 1: Murphy because of the second base. My issue is just
Speaker 1: the the injury. Sure, I'm really worried about that over
Speaker 1: a Carpenter Vado, of course, So that's why I have
Speaker 1: him a little low. But obviously lude he's gonna hit
Speaker 1: three dred in Colorado no matter how much time he plays,
Speaker 1: and if he does play close to a full season,
Speaker 1: I think this is we are where he's gonna hit
Speaker 1: like fifty doubles, like without it down Colorado. All right,
Speaker 1: you asked me, Frank a moment ago, if I had
Speaker 1: to pick two guys from this tier, it would it
Speaker 1: be your two favorites, and then we are two least favorites. Okay,
Speaker 1: my two favorites from this tier. It's just the way
Speaker 1: that I, I guess think about first basement, we'll probably
Speaker 1: the Jose Bray you in, Matt car and Daniel Murphy.
Speaker 1: Those are your two favorites, not not who I take
Speaker 1: first obviously because of the value just everything kind of
Speaker 1: incog kind of everything together, what you project for this season.
Speaker 1: There the price you have to pay for these guys.
Speaker 1: I just love the value of Jose Brew. I think
Speaker 1: playing the full season like kind of does he does?
Speaker 1: I really love that. I trust him to do that.
Speaker 1: And Daniel Murphy in Colorado just it's so yeah, it's
Speaker 1: tantalized him. That's the words. Were your two favorites in
Speaker 1: this year? I like was Rizzo in that year? Rizzo
Speaker 1: and alright, riz corpor we'll come back. We got twentyts ago,
Speaker 1: We've gotten through Tenni first patiment um putting a little
Speaker 1: bit faster now. I know, Frank, you have your favorites
Speaker 1: into your four. I want to get to Tyler White
Speaker 1: and Lufoy. I want you to be able to get
Speaker 1: into Josh Bell. It's we other first basin that you like,
Speaker 1: and I'll hit on something as well. We dive a
Speaker 1: little bit deeper in the first face when we come back.
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Speaker 1: all the Fantasy best friends forever, Chris Ventra, Frank Stamford,
Speaker 1: Gregg Sauce hanging out with you now. Ober two, We
Speaker 1: did all that. I believe it was top ten first basement, right,
Speaker 1: eleven eleven, alright, tops, all right, it makes you feel better, right,
Speaker 1: top eleven, first hours, eleven names not bad, but it's
Speaker 1: pretty good, working, hard work. If you had to pick
Speaker 1: a twelfth first basement, who'd be for me? I'll just
Speaker 1: tell you my number twelve, first baseman. It's Showy Gallow Chris.
Speaker 1: It's between Listen. I really like Josh Bell, so I
Speaker 1: have him high. Don't tell me twelve and um and canon.
Speaker 1: I have very hard to Ian. It's fine, that makes
Speaker 1: sense to me. I know Bett Listen, it's wild. Well,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna draft him obviously, as like the twelve.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to get the value as much as
Speaker 1: I can. I'm gonna draft differently. This is just where
Speaker 1: I rank him. I think he's gonna be better than
Speaker 1: all these guys behind him. Maybe not Muncy like like Muncly,
Speaker 1: I like to uh. He's like him for points leagues too.
Speaker 1: I had him. I picked him up in in one
Speaker 1: of my home leagues last year in the Auction league,
Speaker 1: and it was like all he did was walking home
Speaker 1: every at bat, Like his ops was over a thousand
Speaker 1: where he walked a lot far into the season, but
Speaker 1: he like every time it looked at like his staff
Speaker 1: and it was like two walks a home run and
Speaker 1: like one for one with a singles like this is
Speaker 1: such a two or two. It was like a weird
Speaker 1: It was always a weird salite. All he did was
Speaker 1: walking home. Yeah, he didn't really I don't think it
Speaker 1: very many doubles either. But here's the thing. He he
Speaker 1: he popped up out of nowhere, had this great year.
Speaker 1: I don't trust that. Sometimes There's been a lot of
Speaker 1: guys that have done this. One guy that comes to mind,
Speaker 1: Ryan Lidwig. I don't know if you remember cards had
Speaker 1: a monster like twenty nine Homer year, kind of disappeared,
Speaker 1: had one more decent year, and then disappeared off the map. Um.
Speaker 1: I don't like those guys that pop up late in
Speaker 1: their age and have a great year. I usually give
Speaker 1: it another year to see what's going on with that guy.
Speaker 1: So that's why. And Belle is more of a prospect
Speaker 1: that I've known for a while. I know he's supposed
Speaker 1: to be a very good player, hits for really good
Speaker 1: average walks, does all the things I like, And it's
Speaker 1: his third year coming up, So there's the breakout year.
Speaker 1: I like the value there, you know what I mean.
Speaker 1: I like the ceiling and the value there better better
Speaker 1: where a month. See, you saw maybe his cat last year.
Speaker 1: I'm not so sure he's gonna do that again or
Speaker 1: even you know, do better, right. I think he might
Speaker 1: even regress. Okay, I gotta ask. You were talking about
Speaker 1: Jesus Agler. He's kind of a guy who's popped up
Speaker 1: here late as like a breakout. Is that Do you
Speaker 1: kind of hold him in the same regard as you
Speaker 1: do Max Munsey, Well, I'll almost played two full seasons,
Speaker 1: so I saw a lot and I remember the year
Speaker 1: before he was, before he was raking, you know, when
Speaker 1: he when he got his opportunities. Just always find guys
Speaker 1: like this, you know, like they've done it with Justin Turner,
Speaker 1: like they find his journeyman guys and like they turn
Speaker 1: them around. He did it with Chris Taylor and they didn't.
Speaker 1: Well Chris Taylor wasn't great last year, but they did
Speaker 1: it with Justin Turner. Me too, Yeah, tells another guy
Speaker 1: that can't wars me. But you see some good things
Speaker 1: about him as well, like some green flags that you know,
Speaker 1: you could see potentially that he could bounce back and
Speaker 1: have a great career, But tell he's younger. I believe
Speaker 1: this guy. I think he's twenty eight years old months, right.
Speaker 1: I just don't know if I could project him to
Speaker 1: do the same thing or better right now. I have
Speaker 1: him in my mind as a guy that would like
Speaker 1: if I'm you know, going in there in the range
Speaker 1: that I like, right, I could get value for him,
Speaker 1: but I would not absolutely not reach for him, and
Speaker 1: I would not project him to do anything better than
Speaker 1: he did last year. I just don't see it. I
Speaker 1: don't see where it's coming from. It came out of nowhere,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. He did at the time,
Speaker 1: you see at the time, but he also struck out
Speaker 1: seven percent at the time, So you know, he's kind
Speaker 1: of one of these, you know, one of these three
Speaker 1: three true outcomes here where he walks a lot, he
Speaker 1: strikes out a lot home and he hits a lot
Speaker 1: of home runs. Mistake me if I'm wrong here, Greg,
Speaker 1: But wasn't monthsly like kind of being bench during the
Speaker 1: playoffs too, Like he wasn't playing every day. Nope, Nope, nope, nope.
Speaker 1: He's projected to actually roster resource has him as a
Speaker 1: as a platoon candidate as well, with the Dodgers here
Speaker 1: sitting against lefties. I don't know if I necessarily buy that,
Speaker 1: because he was actually pretty he held his own. He
Speaker 1: was two fifty fives against lefties. It's pretty. It's pretty
Speaker 1: damn good. I don't know why he would be platoon
Speaker 1: unless you know, the Dodgers have some kind of data
Speaker 1: that I don't based on his average and his op Yes,
Speaker 1: he was pretty good against No, he was that. That's
Speaker 1: the thing that you gotta worry about with these one years.
Speaker 1: Sometimes wonders is that they get a short leash. That's
Speaker 1: true if they if they you know, a cold for
Speaker 1: the first three four weeks there platoon in or they benched,
Speaker 1: and now you're losing valuable time in that slot where
Speaker 1: you have him. That's why I don't want to draft him.
Speaker 1: I would drift him as like a utility, as a
Speaker 1: flex type of thing, you know what I mean, in
Speaker 1: first and third eligibility, so you can get him as
Speaker 1: like your corner infielder, right like something like that that
Speaker 1: I think that's okay. So you don't want him as
Speaker 1: your starting first or third No, I wouldn't want him
Speaker 1: as my starter. No, unless I have no choice. You
Speaker 1: feel like we need Florio here to defend. Like the
Speaker 1: guy listen, because he's all over month. He's drafted him
Speaker 1: in the tout Wars draft. He told me he wants him.
Speaker 1: And you know, we play in two home points leagues together.
Speaker 1: One is Auction want to draft, and he told me
Speaker 1: he's gonna be all over Mons. So it's it's it's
Speaker 1: whether or not you trust that he's gonna play every
Speaker 1: day and how much of last year was real? And look,
Speaker 1: he doesn't have to do what he did last year
Speaker 1: because last year he was otherworldly. Thirty five home runs
Speaker 1: and four played appearances in a hundred and thirty seven games.
Speaker 1: So you know there's gonna be like those people who
Speaker 1: pro rate the stats and be like, oh, well, you
Speaker 1: know he plays a hundred fifty's gonna hit fo re
Speaker 1: plus home runs. That's not gonna happen. I'll tell you
Speaker 1: I have his projection at two fifty seven homers. I'll
Speaker 1: tell you right now. Muncy in my points league had
Speaker 1: was the about the twelfth thirteenth ranked first baseman on
Speaker 1: his stats and the average three point three Fantasy points
Speaker 1: per game. Uh. And the top first basements like Carpet
Speaker 1: their average four uh, Freddy Freeman average three point eight,
Speaker 1: Goldschman three point nine. He's better for points leaves? Do
Speaker 1: you want him in? Roto? Greg? Is he a target
Speaker 1: of yours? I remember I asked you about months yet ye.
Speaker 1: It reminds me a lot of Chris Taylor. It didn't,
Speaker 1: said Zaculy Ventre said, had to judge it. Man, it's
Speaker 1: the one year thing. It's scary. It's scary. It's very scary.
Speaker 1: Max Monse, how about this and my homely Last year
Speaker 1: I had Joey Vado and Max Munsey two for six,
Speaker 1: eight ten. Doe Vado was the twelve ranc first baseman.
Speaker 1: Next months he was thirteen. This was an auction league
Speaker 1: and I spent thirty five dollars in my budget on Vado.
Speaker 1: He was the twelfth ranked first baseman. Last year's actually
Speaker 1: where he's supposed to be really good. I realized he
Speaker 1: had twelve home runs, but Joey Votto was the twelve
Speaker 1: first baseman. I'll always give Carlo Santana, Dude, he was
Speaker 1: the best first baseman in points leagues last year. And
Speaker 1: if you ask like the average fantasy baseball player. What
Speaker 1: do you think about Carl Santana? He's like him homers like,
Speaker 1: he doesn't really do anything. He walks one of them.
Speaker 1: He was six in total points. That's because he also
Speaker 1: played a He always plays a full season, like he compiles.
Speaker 1: You know what I mean. He's accumulator because his actual
Speaker 1: average Fantasy points per game with three point two, that's
Speaker 1: nowhere near these other guys. These top guys are averaging
Speaker 1: three point six to four. Okay, that's how those are
Speaker 1: the top guys like Santana on a game to game basis,
Speaker 1: isn't giving you more than monthly monthly average three point three.
Speaker 1: So rickson profile average three point three. I like pro
Speaker 1: out too, like these guys averaged more than Santana, but
Speaker 1: he ends up party on the totem pole in total
Speaker 1: points because he played so much. Why why do you
Speaker 1: guys like PROFI so much? Does? I'm trying to figure
Speaker 1: out why everyone likes him, does a lot of different things.
Speaker 1: Well to me, runs and st ten bases last year
Speaker 1: in a great ballpark in Texas. Now moves over to
Speaker 1: Oakland's prospect He could still begs right, but he yeah,
Speaker 1: but he walks. He goes from one of the best
Speaker 1: hitting ballparks, Oakland. I hear you. I'm telling I'm telling
Speaker 1: you asked you asked me why I'm not really buying it.
Speaker 1: On the profile thing, A lot of people are like
Speaker 1: in on Profo far I'm not really one of them.
Speaker 1: Would I like him more points leagues because he makes
Speaker 1: like contact, he doesn't strike out, He's pretty good, played discipline,
Speaker 1: does a little bit of everything. But in Rhodo it's like,
Speaker 1: what are you expecting? He gives seven to sixty two seven,
Speaker 1: He'll give you eighteen home runs, ten stolen basis, he'll
Speaker 1: give you above average in every category, basically above average, right,
Speaker 1: like eighteen home runs. I mean, but you gotta like
Speaker 1: other things. First of all, he's only twenty five years old.
Speaker 1: He's gonna be twenty six. What's the number. It's his birthday,
Speaker 1: today's birthday. Go out and draft him. So he still
Speaker 1: just turned twenty six one year old and I got
Speaker 1: so he's getting into his prime. Now's the time, Now's
Speaker 1: the time. I mean, listen, perjection systems have him at
Speaker 1: between two fifty six and to fifty nine average. They
Speaker 1: have him at between sixteen and nineteen homers. In between
Speaker 1: eight and eleven stone bases. What does that do? But
Speaker 1: there's the other numbers. Fifty four walks int that's pretty good.
Speaker 1: Pretty good, yeah, jerks and profile doesn't thirty five doubles.
Speaker 1: I get the prospect, pedigree and stuff. He could do
Speaker 1: all he could do more. If you guys want him,
Speaker 1: that's fine. But he looked I'm sorry and overrule you here.
Speaker 1: He will not be on our auction team. Listen. I
Speaker 1: was last year. That's because we picked him up. Take
Speaker 1: him as a backup and hope for the best. It's
Speaker 1: a great backup. He has multi position eligibility, him as
Speaker 1: your corner ray fielder, your middle in fielder, utility. I
Speaker 1: just don't want him as like my starting first heard
Speaker 1: or shortstop. I don't want him as either. That's bad then, yeah,
Speaker 1: you don't want to do that unless you're in a
Speaker 1: really deep league. But venture yeah, what about Joey Gallo here,
Speaker 1: Joey gallow is an interesting Do you want to talk
Speaker 1: about three true outcomes? Joey Gallo is about as close
Speaker 1: to three true outcomes as you could possibly get. I mean,
Speaker 1: over the past two years, he has eight one homers
Speaker 1: over the past years. That's fourth most in baseball. He
Speaker 1: also has a thirty six percent hard hit rate that's
Speaker 1: the second highest in baseball. Umtent trikeout rate that's second
Speaker 1: highest in baseball. Seven percent hard hit rate over the
Speaker 1: past few years, the most fly ball rate, the most.
Speaker 1: We talked about the forty forty club. We want hard
Speaker 1: hit right ball rate, he's nearly the fifty ft club, Greg,
Speaker 1: So this guy is gonna hit fly balls. He's gonna
Speaker 1: hit what's what's that average? Yeah, that's that's terrible. Here's
Speaker 1: what I'm looking at. Here's what I'm looking at. First half,
Speaker 1: raise yourself seven thirty nine o p s. Second half
Speaker 1: to thirty nine batting average two o p s. Still
Speaker 1: struck out thirty five percent of times, but hit the
Speaker 1: ball even harder. This is why you don't want him.
Speaker 1: The two percent hard to hit right dude. If he
Speaker 1: can maintain the top, if you can maintain a two
Speaker 1: thirty two batting average instead of the sub to ten
Speaker 1: that he's been too thirty or two forty over the
Speaker 1: course of a full season, he's a top fifty hitter.
Speaker 1: He's legitimately a top because in points leagues he has
Speaker 1: the problem with him. This is a guy written written
Speaker 1: with inconsistency all over his face. He's adam done. He's
Speaker 1: also gonna have a short lea. She's not because I'm done.
Speaker 1: He was like, this is why he's gonna have a
Speaker 1: at least what I'm saying. If he backs, they're talking
Speaker 1: about giving an extension. But what I'm saying is that,
Speaker 1: like you're hitting two back to back, here's two oh
Speaker 1: nine and two oh six. If you hit one seventy
Speaker 1: five for a month and that goes on for a while,
Speaker 1: they might end up platoona intervention. The guy you can't
Speaker 1: hit sub two hundred for that long and if he
Speaker 1: is hitting a probably not hitting with consistent power either.
Speaker 1: Do the Texas Rangers have enough talent to like have
Speaker 1: that luxury? You know? Do they? We're trying to find
Speaker 1: ways to get like Willy Calhoun in the lineup right now.
Speaker 1: I realized that, But I just I don't like these
Speaker 1: guys in the point league where I'm playing a weekly
Speaker 1: points league, Like he could go two weeks and disappear.
Speaker 1: I can't have that. There's an interesting like conversation going
Speaker 1: on right now and Fantasy Baseball Twitter revolving around Joey Gallo.
Speaker 1: If I'll pull up some of the stuff for you. Greg,
Speaker 1: how do you feel about Joey Gallo? I never own
Speaker 1: him in Rhodo. You need to have the perfect construction
Speaker 1: to have on your team, need to have liked because
Speaker 1: if you draft him, he's gonna he's gonna sink your batting. Ever,
Speaker 1: unless you think that he can be that two hitter
Speaker 1: that he wasn't the second half last year over the
Speaker 1: course of the full season. If he does that, then
Speaker 1: he's a top fifty hitter and Rohodo team, you're only you.
Speaker 1: You're getting him. There's no other players are not gonna
Speaker 1: give you forty home run. He's hanging on by a thread.
Speaker 1: He's hanging on those forty homers. If he has thirty
Speaker 1: homers and does the same things Chris Carter, he's Italian,
Speaker 1: He's Joey Gallo. He's not at the league, but his
Speaker 1: value gets shacked if he goes exactly completely sacked and
Speaker 1: he's like Chris Carter, Dude, this is Chris Carter, e said,
Speaker 1: he walks more you, Carlo Santana. Briefly you have them.
Speaker 1: It's here with your guys, Luke Voit, Tyler White. What
Speaker 1: makes you like him someone, He's the Rhoto rankings that
Speaker 1: I and I typically use, uh Carlo Santana, look for
Speaker 1: Roto he there's no player who takes a bigger hit
Speaker 1: in terms of from points to Rhodo. Correct, you only
Speaker 1: one him in points? I don't. I don't even want
Speaker 1: him in because he's gonna give you to fifty with
Speaker 1: two to twenty five homers. And the Indians lineup is
Speaker 1: not like you know, it's not as good as it has.
Speaker 1: Tell's Ramirez, that's Lindor hopefully once he's healthy. And you
Speaker 1: got a bunch of question marks like Jake Bowers and
Speaker 1: yeah he does walk a lot, and there you go.
Speaker 1: You like, you like your guys that walk a lot,
Speaker 1: but he's a good's Jake Bowers. And like the outfield
Speaker 1: is Greg Allen and Leone's Martin. So look, it's not
Speaker 1: really a great lineup. Luke Void and Tyler White, those
Speaker 1: are the guys that you know, once once we get
Speaker 1: past Gallo and Carnacio Muncy, I have Gallo and Carnassona
Speaker 1: mons in their own tier because to me, those guys
Speaker 1: are like, you know, sub to fifty hitters that have
Speaker 1: power potential. To me, like that's basically that tier, and
Speaker 1: then next up is like once I miss out on
Speaker 1: those guys, it's I think Luke Voit has the potential
Speaker 1: to do something like Hayese's Agilor did last year. Is
Speaker 1: downside is I think the Yankees still kind of want
Speaker 1: to play Greg Bird a little bit, so you'll worry
Speaker 1: a little bit about playing time with Luke Void. Same
Speaker 1: thing with Tyler White. You're worry a little bit of
Speaker 1: up about playing time. But White is a guy who
Speaker 1: has performed admirably at the minor league level the past
Speaker 1: couple of years. We're talking, you know to a d
Speaker 1: plus batting average, twenty five home runs. When he was
Speaker 1: given an opportunity last year with the Astros, he played well.
Speaker 1: So he's the every day d H in the Astro's lineup.
Speaker 1: And he get you know, to seventy to eighty with
Speaker 1: twenty home runs. I think some County stance will be
Speaker 1: there because it's a good line up. This guy had
Speaker 1: a chance before though, Yeah he didn't get hot I
Speaker 1: think at first and then cooled down tremendous and capitalize
Speaker 1: him that he's projected to start at d H right now.
Speaker 1: They have some other names there in the Astros. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know they have like Tony Camp and they have
Speaker 1: Jake Murisnick. So you know, if they want to give
Speaker 1: Brandy a d H Day like, that's gonna you know,
Speaker 1: that's gonna end up interfering with Tyler White's playing time.
Speaker 1: I'll give you, I'll give you one more guy in
Speaker 1: this tier. I think he's already in that. He's on
Speaker 1: the top of that tire. I think. Um, but justin Smoke,
Speaker 1: justin Smoke is a guy that I'm looking at too.
Speaker 1: He's slowly even creeping up. I moved him up. He's
Speaker 1: a good amongst number nine team. I think you could
Speaker 1: count on it for certain things at this point. You
Speaker 1: know what, I think he's you convinced me and you
Speaker 1: didn't even say anything. I don't him over call of
Speaker 1: Santana just because in Rhoto. Yeah, but justin Smoke, we're
Speaker 1: talking about a guy here who Now here's a guy
Speaker 1: little collins Worth action for you. He's going outside the
Speaker 1: top two. Yeah, he's free. He's going around trade man
Speaker 1: Sini Boom boom. He's going around Jose Martinez, who doesn't
Speaker 1: even have a job. He's on the Cardinals, but he's
Speaker 1: not gonna play. He's not doesn't smoke. He's going to thirty. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's gonna sink your batting average a little bit, but
Speaker 1: he could eat homeless. He did it two years. That's
Speaker 1: the thing. He's gonna hit to forty and two fifty,
Speaker 1: but he does. I do think have thirty plus home
Speaker 1: run upside, especially when flat Guerrero comes into the lineup.
Speaker 1: So this is really that tier where you know, once
Speaker 1: you get past Monc and Incarnacion, it's like you find
Speaker 1: your upside guys who you like, who you think you
Speaker 1: know that you get later on that you know you're
Speaker 1: basically getting for cheap, who can pay off. Tayler White
Speaker 1: is one of those guys for me. I also like
Speaker 1: Luke Voit. I kind of agree on Justin Smoke. He
Speaker 1: hits in a great division too. Toronto is a good ballpark.
Speaker 1: He's gonna go to Yankee Stadium. He's gonna go to
Speaker 1: these kind of guys they think all really fit the
Speaker 1: corner infielder profile. Yeah, guys that you can take a
Speaker 1: shot taking a shot, take a shot on late guy
Speaker 1: like Tyler White, it could break out. I got like
Speaker 1: Justin Smoke, It's gonna give you the numbers that he
Speaker 1: needs a routing at your team and rout at your statistics.
Speaker 1: I think they fit well in there. Frank, how about this, Greg,
Speaker 1: We've done two hours on first basement. Yeah, we didn't
Speaker 1: even mention Miguel Cabrera. Is that mistake? Is that a
Speaker 1: mistake he drops out of that. I know a lot
Speaker 1: of people are you know a lot of people are
Speaker 1: backing right back in And Miguel Cabrera, I understand why
Speaker 1: he could one seventy range in a DP. He could
Speaker 1: give you average and stuff like that. Maybe, but he's
Speaker 1: not gonna do too much else A guy I will
Speaker 1: say to look out for Peter Alonzo. I think in
Speaker 1: the long term this guy later in the year could
Speaker 1: really help teams. The guy's absolute beast and mother named
Speaker 1: similar to that Nathaniel Lowe of Tampa Bay. Deeman Toy
Speaker 1: is not cutting it. It was gonna be up serious
Speaker 1: power upset. Thanks thanks Vencher for hanging out with us.
Speaker 1: For Chris Vencher and Frank example, I'm Greg Sousman. Second
Speaker 1: base tomorrow be open.