WEBVTT - How Population Works 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:04.520 Welcome to stuff you should know from house stuff works 0:00:04.559 --> 0:00:13.480 dot com. Punky chucking, punky chucking, punky chucking. That's right, chuck. 0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:16.360 He and welcome to the podcast. I'm Josh Clark. Clearly, 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:20.920 Chuck Bryant's here, and uh, let's talk about punkin Chunking. 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:23.680 I guess you just kind of forced our hand, Chuck. Yes, 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:27.120 the Road to Punkin Chunking and punkin Chunking. So that's on. 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:30.360 That's on Science Channel a p m. Eastern Time on 0:00:30.480 --> 0:00:34.640 Thanksgiving night. Yeah, you can see some pumpkins get chunk punkins, 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:38.479 get chunks punkins. Yeah, okay again Science Channel. The Road 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:41.440 to punkin Chunkin starts at eight pm Eastern Time. Punkin 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:45.960 chunk In Itself starts at nine Thanksgiving night. Yes, Science 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:49.919 Channel on with the show. Yeah, chuck, Um, have you 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:54.120 ever belonged to a population? No, man, I'm like, I'm 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:57.520 totally independent. Screw population. You're like that guy who lives 0:00:57.560 --> 0:01:00.200 in the commune, right right, Yeah, Well the joke's on him, 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:05.160 because a commune constitutes a population. Um, this sounds kind 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:08.880 of boring, and you would think it is how population works. 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:11.640 It actually started to pick up. Actually didn't know what 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:13.839 it was even gonna be. When I saw how population works, 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:16.000 I was like, what you know, it's awesome. This was 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:19.160 my idea, this article was. I pinched it. Why didn't 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:22.360 they let you write it? I don't know, jerks, I know, 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:24.640 but the grabst did a good job with it. Oh yeah, 0:01:24.640 --> 0:01:27.440 the grabs is always good. Yeah, class, that's ed grab Ainowsky. 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:34.800 By the way, right, So, UM, human beings marriage, human 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:40.880 beings tend to um congregate. Yes, we segregate. Interestingly, that 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:46.319 is an excellent You just blew my mind. Good lord chuck. Um. Well, 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:48.400 let's get back to what I was saying. Unless you 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:51.400 want to go on a segregation we'll get on that later. Um, 0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:56.000 humans congregate and segregate. But let's talk about congregation and that. 0:01:56.520 --> 0:01:59.760 UM most of the time, I would say, our early 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:05.200 early ancestors, uh, and probably even other species congregate because 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.640 there's safety and numbers and it helps like with farming, 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:11.919 collecting water and food power numbers. But even before farming, 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:16.320 um h hunter gatherers lived in bands. I think thirty 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:18.720 was about tops. They figured out somewhere along the way 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:21.720 that groups of thirty or groups of more than thirty, 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:24.520 they're tending to be a lot more hostility and UM 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:27.080 in a group problems. Have you ever tried to kill 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:29.880 a mass it on by yourself? That's another good point too. 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:37.959 There's cooperation masted on. Um. There's um. If if let's say, 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:40.680 if you are farming and your crop fails, well you're 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:46.280 not standing there like, well I'm in trouble. You can say, hey, neighbor, um, 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:49.920 I'll totally give you favors of some variety if you 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:52.000 will let me have some of your grain. Right, I'll 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:55.359 give you a chicken. Let's say, sure, you can trade. Yeah, 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:58.840 there's a lot of reasons people live together. So it's 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:03.520 my theory that pepe will aggregate together naturally. Yes, And 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:05.880 then there are people out there who get their jollies 0:03:06.000 --> 0:03:09.959 by studying these groups of people. They're called demographer demographers. 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:12.960 So we have populations natural or otherwise. And let's say 0:03:12.960 --> 0:03:17.320 a natural population, uh today are people who live in 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:21.360 a certain state Georgians. That's where we are, So that 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:25.639 you have natural populations, and demographers study um right um, 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:29.960 and they look at things like say, how many people 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:33.600 in this natural population are Republicans or Democrat, or how 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:39.240 many are Caucasian, or how many have um, how many 0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:42.120 live below the poverty line. All kinds of things you 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:45.920 can study right by looking at a population and are 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:49.600 are is this? Are these groups segregated like you brought up? 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:53.160 You know, like if you study, uh, where different races 0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:55.839 are living? Are they living mingling? If so, then that's 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:59.640 probably a fairly harmonious place hopefully. If not, why are 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:02.640 they living apart? How do we fix this? Because it's 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:07.520 probably a problem. Who knows, but yes, so demographers study 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:12.400 populations natural or otherwise. Right. The problem is is you 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:16.080 very few people have the ability to hover over the 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:22.320 earth and use super binocular vision to study populations by side. 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:25.840 Very few people. Yeah, like three or four I think tops. 0:04:25.920 --> 0:04:30.240 Uh so does that count as a statistic I think so? Okay, Richard, 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:33.680 um so measuring populations after you can talk about how 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:35.960 do we actually determine this kind of thing? Yeah, that 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:38.320 was my sec That was that was a good segue. 0:04:38.400 --> 0:04:42.719 There's a kind of way, josh one is um by 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:47.080 counting them literally counting them like it's counting every single person, right, 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:50.640 and that is called complete enumeration. Yeah. Remember we talked 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:53.040 about that poor guy who was killed or possibly kill 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:55.960 himself in Kentucky. The census taker. Right, Oh, I didn't 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:58.200 know that suicide was a possibility. There. I got a 0:04:58.320 --> 0:05:01.279 cryptic email from somebody never followed up on that said 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:05.520 that he identified himself as a doctor and I think 0:05:05.600 --> 0:05:08.840 said that he was part of the group that was 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:13.640 the medical examination team and said that they suspected, strongly 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:16.560 suspected suicide. My problem with it is is how do 0:05:16.600 --> 0:05:21.000 you bind yourself in duct tape? How do you bind 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:27.000 your own risks and duct tape? Okay, um, So my 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:29.000 point is, wow, he threw me off of that one. 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:33.160 My point is that he was called an enumerator, yes, 0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:36.479 literally counter, and that's the people who worked for the 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:39.520 census whenever they had their their drive and they count 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.120 and that's one way to determine it. Well, let's talk 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.640 about the census. It's gone on every ten years since, right, 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:47.719 And the reason they do it every ten years because 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:49.640 it's a real pain in the asked to count every 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:51.880 person in America. Yeah, the real reason they do it 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:53.919 so they can Well there's a lot of reasons, but 0:05:56.279 --> 0:06:00.480 that is the reason why anyone's ever conducted a sense. Yeah. Well, 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:03.800 plus they they determine the number of House representatives for 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:06.039 your state based on population. Stuff like that. Oh yeah, 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:08.360 there's that too. But you know, come on, Texas, did 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:13.960 you know that um that that the census information is 0:06:14.040 --> 0:06:17.000 kept is kept secret for seventy two years? Yeah, aside 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:20.000 from the numbers, I believe the public cannot see that 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:22.440 information for seventy two years. Right, what do I seventy two? 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:24.960 That's odd? It is odd. I wonder if that was 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:28.400 the average lifespan at the time or something. Dude, that's 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:31.880 got to be it. I'll bet you're right. Okay. The 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:36.120 other way, Josh, is to uh do something called sampling, 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:40.440 and that is when um statticians use a mathematical formula 0:06:40.520 --> 0:06:45.479 to determine the minimum number of people that must be counted, 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:49.880 and then they multiply that out and basically end up 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:52.880 getting a full population. And sometimes I did, I don't 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:56.039 know this. That's even more accurate than an actual head count. 0:06:56.920 --> 0:06:58.919 You see that margin of error, it's like plus or 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:01.279 minus for sent Yeah, you gotta have a margin of 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:04.040 error there whenever you're sampling, right, because you're not actually 0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:07.160 going around asking every single person in America are you 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:10.160 left handed? To determine how many people are left handed? 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:13.080 But let's say you have a population of a thousand, 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:18.000 and some statisticians been like, you need a hundred do it, 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:21.880 but do your egghead voice. Yeah, you need a hundred 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:24.640 and fifty people. The hundred and fifty people and that 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:26.760 are left handed, and you can just multiply that out 0:07:26.760 --> 0:07:29.920 to determine that there are, in fact how many people, 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:33.720 let's say, ten percent of the population of the population. Right, 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:37.840 but your sample as perfect. Your sample has to be 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:42.440 a random sample to be an effective sample. Yeah, and 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:44.280 you know how they used to do that, Uh huh. 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:46.280 Used to just pick it out of the phone book. Oh, 0:07:46.320 --> 0:07:49.679 I know and call people I know. And that makes 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:52.480 sense to a certain extent. No, well, back then it 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:54.360 made a little more sense. I would think it made 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:57.400 it made less sense, especially if you're talking like nineteen 0:07:57.440 --> 0:07:59.640 fifty years. Well, it depends on what year. I'd say, 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:01.840 in the night, teen eighties, it was probably a good way. 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:05.119 But now there are cell phones. People in college probably 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:07.120 don't have a phone. Poor people who don't have phones 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:08.920 at all, people who don't have phone. Sure, so that's 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:12.040 not a very good way. Because what about freight train 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:15.920 writers of America? What's that they don't have phones? Yeah, 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:18.600 good point. Yeah, they're not allowed. I don't think they 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:23.000 want them. So sampling is a little harder than it seems. Yeah, right, 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:25.960 especially coming up with a random population SANDOM sample of 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:29.080 the population. Um. But okay, so so far we've talked 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:33.920 about people and where they live. There's other ways to 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:37.280 define a population. There's other attributes that people have that 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:39.760 we use to lump into population. It's not just a 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:43.400 geography when people think, um, populations, it's not just a 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:48.520 city population or state. Yes, what an age? You have 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:54.240 a population of age or continent, a demographic? What else? Location? 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:57.360 Of course, socio economic Well population, let's talk about age. 0:08:57.360 --> 0:08:59.720 Why would you even want to know age? Who cares? 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:02.280 People are old, people are young? Whatever? Right, Well, there's 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:04.680 a lot of factors like, um, take the baby boom 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:07.160 for instance, after World War Two, all these babies were born, 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:10.520 so there was a bulge in the population, and I'd 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:12.480 just like saying the word bulge. You got to do 0:09:12.520 --> 0:09:16.240 the air quote a quote. So, um, what that will 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:17.959 show them then is wow, we got a bulge here. 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:22.720 So that means probably in to sixty years, there's gonna 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:26.079 be some serious buying power. Let's start borrowing as much 0:09:26.120 --> 0:09:28.480 money as we can right now. But it also means 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:32.400 in seventy plus years that they they may be a 0:09:32.440 --> 0:09:35.640 medical burden and a burden on social security. So let's 0:09:35.679 --> 0:09:37.720 start borrowing as much money as we can right now, 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:42.600 same same result there. I like that, and we'll get 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:46.679 to bulges again in a little bit. But let's move on. 0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:49.720 Like you said, socioeconomic data, right, yeah, what what? Why 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:51.520 would they want to do this job? This one I found. 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:54.760 I find this the most interesting of all data. You 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:57.920 can look at a bunch of people who are maybe 0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:02.360 related geographically, right, um, but other than that, aren't related 0:10:02.400 --> 0:10:05.840 in any other way. Uh, and all of them suddenly 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:09.800 have this horrible cancer and they're just so happens to 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:14.480 be some manufacturer or thereby what did you say, high 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:18.000 tension wires, which has been proven I think to not 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:20.840 actually have any effect on people, not in my buddy. 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:24.240 Um so uh, Now, all of a sudden, you have 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:27.920 this information thanks to your demographer friend who went and 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:32.240 collected it, and um, you can say, okay, paint factory, 0:10:32.720 --> 0:10:35.920 you guys better start giving away some free paint, yeah, 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:40.640 or we're gonna sue you. Race. That's a little little 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:44.280 more hinky because technically there is no such thing as 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:48.160 any difference in different races. I remember watching MTV years 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:51.560 and years and years ago, and um, the VJ was 0:10:51.920 --> 0:10:55.120 interviewing the Beastie Boys and he was like, Mike D, 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:57.800 I hear you're dating a black girl. You know, what's 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:00.559 it like dating somebody from a different race? Which is 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:03.040 just an asinine question to begin with, But I remember 0:11:03.080 --> 0:11:05.760 Mike D going there's only one race, the human race, 0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:10.040 And I was like, huh so that that was clearly 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:12.880 before he was down with the Ione or no, that 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:16.240 was ad Rock. Sorry, yeah, ad Rocks down with the 0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:18.440 IONI Yeah they're divorced though, so he's not down with 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:21.559 her anymore, poor Ione. Uh So, Yeah, race is a 0:11:21.640 --> 0:11:25.240 little hinky, but you can't actually determine some um useful 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:28.640 things when you study populations of race because of like, 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:30.719 you know, it's important for people to be involved in 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:34.120 their culture. Yeah, and and to hang onto that for sure. 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.439 I guess racial profiling again. I don't know if I 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:39.160 should say again or not, but it's such a hot 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:44.120 button issue that yeah, I don't know. We need to 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:46.880 talk about it collectively. That's my answer for everything. Everybody 0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:49.439 needs to get together and decide what we want to do. Okay, well, 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:50.960 the other thing with race so is if there's a 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:53.360 medical problem that's specific to that race, that can help 0:11:53.400 --> 0:12:19.640 out that exactly. Josh alright, So, Chuck, We've got all 0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:24.560 these different factors, attributes, variables. We've used the word demographer 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:30.080 several times. Um, so we know that people study populations. 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:32.800 One of the reasons why we study populations is to 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:37.280 see how big it's getting. And I gotta tell you, buddy, 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:41.679 the human population is kind of exploded on this planet 0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:44.320 in the last several thousand years. Yeah, but you know 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:46.240 what they were reading these stats. There were a lot 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:50.559 more people here way back when than I thought. Yeah. Again, 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:56.160 favorite book of all time, Um, Charles C. Man. Yes, 0:12:56.640 --> 0:13:00.000 he basically points out that there is probably a hundred 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.120 million people on the North American or on the in 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:07.840 the America's uh in that's awesome, Yeah, which is a 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:11.000 fifth of the world population is way more than anyone thought. 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:15.880 And the reason why is because Columbus shows up. Smallpox 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:20.079 just ravages both continents, and by the time the European 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:24.320 settlers start coming for real, Uh, the places decimated. It 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.319 seems like there's nobody there. Right. Well, he had the 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:28.720 whole genocide. Two things you ever know about that Columbus 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:31.640 I hear um his men used to like sharpen their 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:37.360 knives on like the skulls of live um live natives. Well, 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:40.720 there's the because genocide we talked about later on Um 0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:45.400 in the article. But there's uh speculation that Columbus may 0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:48.000 have been responsible for like the worst mass genocide in 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:53.840 human history by completely wiping out the Tano Taino Indian people. 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:56.680 And that was in Hispanielo, which is modern day I 0:13:56.720 --> 0:14:00.000 think Haiti and Dominican Republic. And they some people say 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:01.920 there were only like five thousand of them, and some 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:04.920 people say there as many as fifteen million at the 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:09.400 time that were decimated to about two thousand. Decimated through 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:12.880 violence or through disease. Yeah, well through violence, because Columbus 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:14.920 came over, set up a camp in Hispaniola for about 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:19.080 forty people, and then left, came back on trip number 0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:22.680 two and found that the Indian tribe there had killed 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:25.360 all those people. So he went on to kill crazy 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:30.360 rampage basically and completely wiped out the population. And they're 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:31.960 saying it may have been like double the size of 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:36.840 the Holocaust. So Happy Columbus Day, everybody, seriously, but we 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:39.040 do mention that because genocide is is a way that 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:43.960 a population can change rapidly. Well, let's talk about population growth. Yes, 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.840 all right, so I guess about ten thousand BC, they 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:50.920 estimate that there's between one and ten million humans. So 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:53.840 we're starting to slowly grow because by one thousand BC 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:58.000 there's fifty million, and then by six hundred CE UM 0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:00.920 we're at two mill And see that's a lot more 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:03.760 than I thought. Yeah there would be at the time. Yeah, 0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:06.920 I think there was about five hundred million in the 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:11.280 mid fifteenth century, so um, let's go. But let's say 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.640 there's a five million in the mid fifteenth century. The 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:19.320 twentieth century, the industrial revolutions happened, there's been great leaps 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:23.240 in science and UM medicine. That's when populations really grow 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:25.800 is during those big booms. Yeah, because it lends itself 0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:31.120 to fertility, higher and fertility and UM longer lifespans, good 0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:34.240 times breed kids. So the twentieth century hits were at 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:39.680 one point five billion people and then this century the 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:44.200 population of the world has quadruple. Yeah, and with like 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.640 six billions. I know that that's it sounded like there 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:48.920 should have been a drum roll there, but there was 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:51.440 by that Jerry mnd have put one in there, our producer, Jerry, 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:54.479 we'll find out later. Uh, And Josh, you are projecting. 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:58.160 The U. S CSUS Bureau projects that by there will 0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:01.440 be ten billion people. Right. So the reason for this 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:06.320 is what we call the malthusisant growth model. Mouth. This 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:12.160 was a eighteenth century clergyman, Thomas huh he uh he actually, 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:16.840 I guess inadvertently became one of the great economic theorists, 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:22.160 and he figured out that population grows exponentially. Right, So 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:24.360 if you have one million people and they have enough kids, 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:27.240 double the population. But the next generation you have four 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:29.720 million people. So in one full generation you've gone from 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:34.080 one million to four million people. Right. Yeah, that's that's big, 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:39.160 especially when the planet is finite in size and we 0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:42.160 don't have the ability to go colonize other planets yet. Right. 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:46.640 But it's not necessarily that incremental and steady because of 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:50.440 what we talked about, which are bulges or spikes and 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:57.200 bottlenecks like genocide. Right. Yeah, so it doesn't always grow steadily. 0:16:57.240 --> 0:17:00.280 And actually, Chuck, if you heard of the replacement right now, 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:04.879 the replacement rate is it's how many kids a woman 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:10.080 has to have to have a high uh statistical probability 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:13.800 of having a daughter, so that she in essence replaces herself. 0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:16.879 And right now it's two point three three is the 0:17:16.920 --> 0:17:20.280 replacement rate worldwide, And the point of it is to 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:24.520 trend towards zero population growth. Right, So for every woman 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:28.640 who dies, she has a daughter that can reproduce and 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:31.080 and continue on and continue on and continue on. So 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:34.560 you have overall as many people dying as they're being born. 0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:40.280 So there's no strain, right, and there's also no um dearth. Well, 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:42.880 it's equilibrium that remot. Reading this reminded me of when 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:45.399 we did our Big Econ audio book. It's kind of 0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:50.440 population kind of wants to seek equilibrium. I think, like, uh, 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:53.680 just like economics does and now, and it doesn't always 0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:59.199 happen uh organically, I should say, it probably rarely happens organically. Well, 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:01.639 let's think about um, like you said, the baby boom, 0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:07.360 post war success in in Europe and um, the US 0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:11.320 and Canada, I guess led to um a huge boom 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:15.320 in the population. Nobody went to war to grow the population. 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:17.600 It was just an indirect effect. So all of a 0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:21.200 sudden we had a population spike that created a bulge 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:23.920 bulge if you will, things can go the other way 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:27.160 to which is a bottleneck. Right. Yeah, and that's well 0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:29.760 we and I've got If I see genocide one more time, 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:32.000 we should do a podcast in genocide. I wonder if 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:34.960 there's a drinking game where every time I say genocide, genocide, 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:40.720 drink um. Famine, disease. Uh, something called the plague I 0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:43.000 think wiped out like half the world population at one point, 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:45.760 or half the population of Europe. They suspect that UM 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:50.399 in uh the fifth century. That would be a c e. 0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:54.600 The plague of Justinian may have killed as many as 0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:58.639 half the world's population, a hundred million people. Unbelievable. Can 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:01.800 you imagine walking around on at that time, like, holy crap, 0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:05.000 the entire half the world is dead, just died in 0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:07.000 the last couple of years. It's crazy. On the Black 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:11.080 Death killed twenty to thirty million Europeans. So so plagues 0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:14.640 can happen. There's also UM. I was talking to an 0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:19.720 evolutionary geneticist this is my way UM recently, and he 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:25.280 was talking about study he authored where they found two 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:30.480 evolutionary bottlenecks, one coming out of Africa. Uh. They suggested 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:33.240 a fifty thousand years ago, and another one that happened 0:19:33.240 --> 0:19:36.840 along the bearing Land Bridge, right, And he wasn't saying 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:38.840 like all of a sudden a bunch of people died, 0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:43.600 but um, these bottlenecks turned up because big groups of 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:46.880 people separating in smaller groups of people, which is which 0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:49.560 accounts for a loss of genetic diversity. So you have 0:19:49.600 --> 0:19:52.720 the founders effect. Because, as he put it, if you 0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:55.359 take um, if you go into a town and grabbed 0:19:55.400 --> 0:19:57.960 the first fifteen people you meet and say, let's go 0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:00.240 found a new town, that new town isn't to have 0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:03.120 a representative sample of all the surnames in that town. 0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:05.800 If you do that enough times, some surnames are going 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:08.520 to be lost because people didn't reproduce or whatever. The 0:20:08.600 --> 0:20:11.679 same thing happens with jeans in genetic diversity. Look at you, 0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:15.679 good stuff? Thanks? Uh. Can I mention this place in 0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:19.200 Hong Kong, Yeah, we're talking about well we should mention. 0:20:19.280 --> 0:20:23.639 Population density is the number of humans per unit area 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:26.680 whatever unit you you know, you choose to call it, 0:20:27.240 --> 0:20:30.639 And the highest ever is believed to have been a 0:20:30.680 --> 0:20:36.000 place called Kowloon Walled City in Hong Kong, and at 0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:39.720 one point evidently there were fifty thousand people in a 0:20:39.800 --> 0:20:42.800 mega block, which is five hundred by six fifty feet. 0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:46.520 Fifty thousand people stuffed in there, and apparently it was 0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:51.440 a lawless district. The grabster. She kidding me. People could 0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:54.800 conceivably get along. Yeah, hands across America style. Did you 0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:58.000 know that um in Athens when Widespread Panic played that 0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:00.760 free show, there was an estimated hundred some people. They're 0:21:01.080 --> 0:21:04.399 not one fight really, Yeah, that's because they were all 0:21:04.400 --> 0:21:09.400 on dope. The dope. I wasn't there. Were you there? Yeah? 0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:11.760 I never got into them, although I did hang out 0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:14.399 with that guy, the bass player day schools. Yeah, I 0:21:14.480 --> 0:21:17.840 hung out with him a couple of times, just through friends. Anyway. Uh, 0:21:18.240 --> 0:21:20.239 that that park is no, I'm sorry. It is now 0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:23.280 a park where the walled city used to be. Yeah, 0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:28.480 which is the opposite of the highest population. Ironically, it's 0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:31.639 just the park maybe the highest population of grass. But 0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:57.320 that's it. So what do we got here, Josh? We 0:21:57.400 --> 0:22:01.520 got um population control. It's something that we've referenced before 0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:04.520 with our China One Child policy. Yeah, and we talked 0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:06.919 about why you would want to control the population. A 0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:10.360 huge group of people put a strain on resources. When 0:22:10.359 --> 0:22:13.920 resources go away, you have resource conflicts like in darfour 0:22:14.560 --> 0:22:18.639 again genocide. Right. Um. There's all sorts of problems that 0:22:18.680 --> 0:22:23.000 come from too many people coming or living in one 0:22:23.040 --> 0:22:25.720 place because of the strain that puts on resources and 0:22:25.760 --> 0:22:30.240 resource allocation. Right. Um. And yet you can control the 0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:36.639 population e g. You know, state mandated reproduction um, China, right, 0:22:37.080 --> 0:22:41.400 and that actually works as as China shows. Um, although 0:22:41.560 --> 0:22:44.520 much to the detriment of some people, thank you Chuck 0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:48.480 for that look and not everyone thinks um, some people 0:22:48.520 --> 0:22:51.480 think we should add more people though, well, yeah, there's Japan. 0:22:52.080 --> 0:22:55.159 In other countries, there's a problem of population declients. So 0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:59.160 we talked about the strain um people put on an 0:22:59.200 --> 0:23:02.080 area that's in capacity, which we've talked about before, and 0:23:02.080 --> 0:23:06.639 that's also from Malthus, right that eventually human population is 0:23:06.680 --> 0:23:11.880 going to outstrip advances in technology or our resources and 0:23:11.960 --> 0:23:16.040 we're screwed. Right Um. On the other side is shrinking, 0:23:16.080 --> 0:23:19.359 population shrinking, And what's the problem with that, Well, you 0:23:19.359 --> 0:23:22.560 don't want the population to shrink too much because you, uh, 0:23:22.880 --> 0:23:25.639 you need those hands to go to work and to 0:23:25.640 --> 0:23:28.840 to contribute to the economy and to grow the grain 0:23:29.000 --> 0:23:32.199 and sow the flower and all that good stuff. And 0:23:32.280 --> 0:23:34.760 apparently in Russia, Japan and Australia they all have like 0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:38.600 little incentive programs to make little babies. Sure, how about that? 0:23:38.680 --> 0:23:42.200 Which is the way to go? Remember John Fuller's famous quote, um, 0:23:42.280 --> 0:23:45.639 when he was pitching an article about that program in Russia, 0:23:45.680 --> 0:23:48.520 and he's talking about poutin giving away a TV. Oh, yeah, 0:23:48.560 --> 0:23:51.800 that's right, that's really funny. Yeah, um and the baby 0:23:51.840 --> 0:23:53.560 get a TV. I think you had to be there 0:23:53.840 --> 0:23:56.960 and check the reason why. Uh, some of these places 0:23:57.000 --> 0:24:00.879 are seeing a population shrink and or have to, I 0:24:00.920 --> 0:24:05.400 guess give incentives to reproduce. Uh. Started in about nineteen 0:24:05.520 --> 0:24:09.600 sixty birth control. That's so crazy that it had an 0:24:09.600 --> 0:24:13.000 effect that much of an effect that pronounced of an effect. Yeah, 0:24:13.000 --> 0:24:15.040 well it would seem like it would though, I guess 0:24:15.040 --> 0:24:19.080 so because it's called birth control. Sure you know before 0:24:19.080 --> 0:24:20.960 that it was called have as many babies as you 0:24:20.960 --> 0:24:25.920 possibly can. It was called no control alright, So clearly 0:24:26.040 --> 0:24:28.800