WEBVTT - Stuart Stevens & Joyce Craig 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:04.200 Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.200 where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 0:00:07.240 --> 0:00:11.440 today's best minds. And Elon Musk has donated seventy five 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:16.200 million dollars to Donald Trump's campaign. We have such a 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:21.040 great show for you today. Legendary campaign manager Stuart Stevens 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:25.239 talks us through the campaign. Then we'll talk to Joyce 0:00:25.360 --> 0:00:28.640 Craig about her run for New Hampshire governor. 0:00:28.880 --> 0:00:30.240 But first the. 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:34.440 News, Molly, we're all talking about closing messages now that 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:37.000 we are less than three weeks away from the selection happening. 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:39.520 What are you seeing here with Vice President Harris's closing argument. 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:41.760 I don't know that this is the closing argument, but 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:44.400 I definitely think this is part of what she's trying 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:47.559 to do here, which is again create a permission structure 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:51.160 for Republicans who are not thrilled with Trump to vote 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:54.080 for the Democrat. And she's doing a rally tonight in 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:59.080 Bucks County, Pennsylvania. That's a Republican, very kind of upper 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:05.000 middle class suburb, a lot of Republicans who are college educated. 0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:08.000 She's trying to sort of get these voters who are 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:12.760 the kind of voters who have been more open to Harris. 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:14.960 She has a bunch of people who had been in 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:19.640 the Trump administration or who were Republicans joining her, which 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:22.160 I think is really smart. She's going to have a 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:27.200 sit down interview with Fox. This is really unusual for 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:32.200 obvious reasons. Though Walls has done Fox Sunday twice now 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:35.880 and he's done fine. I think it's really really smart 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:39.160 to try to pierce the echo chamber. And again, remember 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:41.960 she's not necessarily going to win a ton of voters 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:44.680 for Fox. But this is all about cutting the margins. 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:48.040 This is all about picking up votes. Maybe you know, 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:50.880 Bucks County is different, but there are certain places here 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:54.320 where they're going to places that are red parts of 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:57.240 the country where they're just trying to shave off ten 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:01.200 fifteen percent of the vote. So maybe he loses thirty 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:05.440 seventy as opposed to eighty twenty, and she's able to 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:09.040 use that ten percent to get her over the top 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:10.880 and the rest of the state. So I think it's 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:13.079 really smart, and I think we're going to see more 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:15.280 of that over the next three weeks. It's a really 0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:18.079 good organized way to run a campaign. 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:21.680 A contrast, I spent a lot of my time on 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:25.320 a former podcast where we documented QAnon very heavily enough. 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:27.920 When I see the word shadow government, it's usually coming 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:30.800 from someone wearing a tinfoil hat. But mister Trump just 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:32.000 said it. What do you make of that? 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:36.080 So Trump is sharpening his closing message, and his closing 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:39.560 message is crazy. He had an interview with Glenn Back. 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:43.360 He said, and again, remember Glenn Beck, perhaps not the 0:02:43.760 --> 0:02:47.280 stable guy. You'll remember he's been in New York Times 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:50.760 saying he wasn't going to be so far right. Then 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:52.880 he went back to the far right. I mean, he's 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:54.119 he's done it all. 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:54.839 Glenn Back. 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:58.160 One might say he sees where his bread would be buttered, 0:02:58.200 --> 0:02:59.800 and he picks them. 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:00.880 Is where the money is. 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:04.480 Trump claims that there's a shadow government that's running the 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:06.280 country instead of President Biden. 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:08.079 By the way, I love a Trump. 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:10.480 Quote because whenever you read it, you realize the guy 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:14.000 cannot speak English. So here it is. This is a direct, 0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:17.120 verbatim quote. And that's why when you read a verbatim quote, 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:18.320 I want you to listen. 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:20.520 To just how unhinged it is. 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:25.280 I think it's a it's a committee of people, and 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:28.840 they might not even know who the committee is. They 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:33.320 may not even know themselves. Does that make sense, question Mark? 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:35.600 And now I would like to add, no, it does not. 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:41.440 It's a group of people at that are in different 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:43.000 levels of DC. 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:45.960 This is giving real. Uh. The first rule of fight 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:48.360 club is you don't mention fight clubs type stuff. 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:52.840 I mean, it's just an incredibly stupid thing to say, 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:58.000 and it speaks to Donald Trump's fascinating, authoritarian slash insane 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:02.040 closing message. You will remember he did boobop for thirty 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:03.920 seven minutes earlier this week. 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.360 Oh the swaying and the dancing, the bopping. Yeah, it's 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:09.560 going to stay in my brain forever. Okay, so let's 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:11.720 take it down to Georgia. We're starting to see some 0:04:11.880 --> 0:04:14.680 early voting data and the news is looking good. 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.919 Dare I say, well again, you know, we don't know, 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:23.039 but early voting in Georgia shatters records. More than three 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:25.640 hundred thousand votes cast in Georgia. 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:26.920 That's humongous. 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:30.280 One of those votes in Georgia was a guy called 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:34.160 Jimmy Carter, who had said that he wanted to stay 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:37.520 alive so that he could vote for Vice President Harris. 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:40.880 On Wednesday, he filled out of ballot and he dropped 0:04:40.880 --> 0:04:45.320 it in a dropbox right in Sumter County Courthouse near 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:49.680 his hometown of Planes. It's pretty cool to hear that 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:53.880 Jimmy Carter was able to stay alive long enough to 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:56.040 vote for Vice President Harris. 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:58.880 Now, we just kind of worked hard. 0:04:58.960 --> 0:04:59.880 I have to be honest with you. 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:02.800 Yeah, I mean we're all a little misty eyed here 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:04.679 about one hundred year old Jimmy Carter. 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:07.479 I mean, I did see three hundred thousand of this headlight. 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:09.279 I thought it was referred to his age, but yes, 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.960 so listen. Kamala Harris has been doing some very unconventional 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:15.760 media hits and one of those was she went on 0:05:16.240 --> 0:05:18.960 with breakfast club hosts Charlie Bade the God, which is 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:21.880 it for those people who are totally illiterate to this 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:24.520 is one of the most listened to black talk radio 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:25.800 hosts out there. 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:31.880 Yeah, somewhere between five and ten million listeners, and it's 0:05:32.120 --> 0:05:35.839 probably more than that. And it's really the group of people. 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:40.559 They're politically active. They're not all black, but some are black. 0:05:40.640 --> 0:05:43.400 It's a really good way. And again we've talked about 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:45.839 this earlier, but you know, she went on Call Her Daddy, 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:49.280 which was five to ten million women, a lot of Democrats, 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:52.640 but a lot of Republicans and independents, and she went 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:56.239 on there to talk about issues that these Republican women 0:05:56.320 --> 0:06:00.279 might vote on, things like reproductive health. So what she's 0:06:00.320 --> 0:06:03.960 doing here, she's going to where the votes are. And 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:08.279 this is like the difference between media today in twenty 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:11.040 twenty four and media in nineteen eighty. 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:14.840 In nineteen eighty, No, but I mean true. 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:17.240 I'm laughing because it's true. It's really did stay the 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:18.280 same forever. 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:19.680 Right or even two thousand. 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:22.719 You could go to Time magazine, you could go to Vogue, 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:24.640 and you could go to the New York Times and 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.839 you'd sort of get everybody, and then you'd go on Oprah, 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:29.080 you go on something like that. 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:30.719 You kind of get around. 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:34.680 But now media is so different, and these voters have 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:39.560 these trusted messengers, and Charlemagne is a trusted messenger for 0:06:39.680 --> 0:06:43.560 a group, and so I think it's very smart that she's. 0:06:43.440 --> 0:06:45.039 Kind of going where it is now. 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:49.320 Charlemagne can be very tough and has done very tough interviews. 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.680 You'll remember he did a very tough interview with Joe Biden. 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:55.840 To be honest with you, he is notorious even in 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:58.720 the entertainment world that he will ask some of the 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:01.719 most unfriendly met the right word, but challenging and pressing 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:04.279 questions to a whole host of people. Whether it's like 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:06.799 a rapper with face tattoos onto a politician. 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:10.080 And so he asked her a question which I actually think. 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:13.280 I'm impressed he asked this question because they talked a 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:16.640 lot about different stuff. You know, very friendly. Mister Trump 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:19.560 should be in prison, and she said yes. But then 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:24.840 he asked her if she is too on script. So 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:27.040 he said, you know, you tend to bob and weave 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:30.600 and she said that would be called discipline. And I 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:34.320 think that's a really interesting answer. And you know, that's 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:37.400 a criticism people have made of her before. So I 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:40.240 thought that was pretty interesting that he did that. He 0:07:40.280 --> 0:07:43.560 pushed her on that, and you know, then there was 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:46.760 a lot of other conversation. Talked about her economy for 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:51.120 Black Americans, and she gave a long answer, and he 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:53.040 gave her a hard time, but in a playful way. 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:56.160 And I think that's a really interesting and important thing 0:07:56.240 --> 0:07:56.840 she did there. 0:07:57.080 --> 0:08:00.480 Agreed. One of the things I think is always interesting 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:03.560 is a scientific technology. I've studied a lot of innovation, 0:08:03.640 --> 0:08:07.200 and often the inventions have lots of inventors and people 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:09.720 who could call themselves the father of things or the 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:13.160 mother of things. I don't think Donald Trump, though, has 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:17.200 done anything to qualify as calling himself the father of IVF. 0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:20.120 Also, it's just very creepy to call yourself the father 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:23.880 of IVF. Right, IVF makes babies, and he's going to 0:08:23.880 --> 0:08:26.280 be the father of all these IVF babies. 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:29.240 So Donald Trump's into town hall with women tonight. 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:33.560 He's trying to appeal to women because he he's losing 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:36.800 them because he overturned Roe v. Wade and now women 0:08:36.880 --> 0:08:40.800 are dying while waiting to get miscarriage care in a 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:45.559 town hall with an entirely female audience, right, talking about 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:50.200 issues that impact American women because he has this gender 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:53.600 gap in polling. He said when an attendee in the 0:08:53.600 --> 0:08:56.280 crowd asked him his possession on abortion access and in 0:08:56.360 --> 0:09:02.160 virtual fetalization. And you remember, Republicans are war with IVF. 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.920 They have this idea that it's called embryonic personhood, the 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:08.640 ideas that an egg plus a sperm is a child 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:14.040 and a five celled organism is a person. And so 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:18.400 they want to eventually regulate IVF or maybe end IVF 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:21.960 because The way IVF works is that sometimes these embryos 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:25.040 get discarded and to them to this crew that is 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:28.280 considered to be murder, which is insane. 0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:33.360 So Donald Trump said, I love this. He goes, I'm 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:34.960 the father of IVF. 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:37.640 So I want to hear this question you will say 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:41.679 today wrote It wasn't immediately clear whether the former president 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:45.240 was talking about his own family or the procedure more broadly. 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:48.640 So maybe Donald Trump created IVF and none of us 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:49.360 know about it. 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:51.360 I mean, I think this is funny when there's headlines 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:55.800 today that Trump said that the fantastically attractive Katie Ritt 0:09:55.840 --> 0:09:58.360 taught him how IVF works, but yet he's the father 0:09:58.440 --> 0:09:58.920 of it. 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:05.319 It's all just incredible stuff. An incredible, incredible closing message 0:10:05.320 --> 0:10:06.040 from Donald J. 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:06.440 Trump. 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:20.280 Stuart Stevens is a legendary campaign manager and the author 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:25.319 of The Conspiracy and America Five Ways My Old Party 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:28.680 is driving our democracy to autocracy. 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:30.760 Welcome to fast politics, to work. 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:33.240 NICs for asking me to party, Milly or We're. 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:34.120 So happy to have you. 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:36.920 Now. I need you to talk to us about the 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:37.720 state of the race. 0:10:37.880 --> 0:10:38.440 Right now. 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:41.800 I feel very good about the race, sort of frighteningly, 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:45.240 so I think the structure of this race is very stable. 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:48.160 I think there's forty seven percent of the country that 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:51.520 is MAGA, fifty three percent that's non MAGA. The ask 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:55.079 for the Harris Walts campaign to coalesce as much of 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:58.600 that fifty three percent be acceptable to them as possible. 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:01.720 So we wake up today in a world in which 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:04.720 Liz Cheney and Bernie Sanders are supporting the same candidate. 0:11:05.000 --> 0:11:07.800 That seems pretty good to me. I think Trump has 0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:11.400 proven not to be able to move much north of 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:15.040 certainly forty seven percent. And you look at the polls, 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:17.400 but it's always better when the polls jib with what 0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:20.040 you're actually seeing. What is he doing to outreach the 0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:23.199 other voters that's working. I don't see that he's really 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:26.360 doing anything. So the question in these campaigns is always 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.320 would you rather be your guy the other guy? I'd 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:29.720 rather be Harris Waltz. 0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:33.120 Now, yeah, because it's funny because it's like everyone I 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:37.800 know is vacillating between feeling okay and feeling freaked out. 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:39.120 But the thing that. 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:41.439 I'm struck by, and again the polls have not buried 0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:45.959 that much, is doing everything you could possibly be doing, right, 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:49.000 Like she's going on box is trying to go on, Rogan, 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:52.240 can you talk to us about this? I mean it 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:54.680 feels like a play to trim the margins. Is that 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:57.200 what it is? And since you're a campaign guy, you 0:11:57.320 --> 0:12:00.000 really can speak to exactly how it works. 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:02.959 Yeah, here's the thing. You sit in those rooms and 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:05.640 pretty soon you're scratching your head about what can we 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:09.160 do that's different and it's really difficult. And you look 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:11.200 at the map and somebody says, you know, we should 0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:13.320 go to Richmond, we should go to Arie, we should 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:16.400 go to Detroit, we should go to Grand Rapids. And 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:19.400 the answer is yes, you can't do them all. So 0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:24.600 every day is Sophie's choice, right, and by going one place, 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.080 you can't go the other. I think there's also a 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:31.480 dirty little secret in campaigning that the correlation between where 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:35.199 you campaign and impact on the votes is very dubious. 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:38.319 Oh that's very interesting, you really think so well. 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:40.880 In the Romney campaign, at some point I asked myself, 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:42.720 you know, we spend all this time and all this 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:46.800 money running all over the world. Doesn't really matter. So 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.200 we started polling like four days before we went into 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:52.440 a market, pulling the day we're in the market, and 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.360 four days afterwards, and what we found was it was 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:58.640 pretty consistently about a point and a half bump, but 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.920 then that point and a half bump reset within seventy 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:05.720 two hours. So we thought about this and pondered it 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:08.320 in profound ways and decided that we didn't know what 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:11.120 it meant. We kept doing the same thing. We didn't 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:14.800 know what else to do. So, you know, did Hillary Clinton? 0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:16.720 They say, oh, she lost in Michigan because she didn't 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:18.880 go there. Well, that she lose Pennsylvania because she went 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:22.840 too much right right right? Who knows? Yeah, So you know, 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:25.760 causality is always the most difficult thing in politics. But 0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:27.720 you know, if you look at the state of these 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:31.160 two campaigns, and I think of it like a sports team, 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:36.600 the Harris campaign, to me has composure. They're calm, they 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:39.960 have a sense of purpose. They are I think, in 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:43.120 a good tone between confident, but not Erica, where at 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:46.880 the campaign has clearly lost its composure. I would say 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:49.960 this has been true since the day that Biden got out, 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.240 and there was a question would this be temporary when 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.760 they figured out how to run against Harris? And I 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.240 think the answer is they haven't figured out how to 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:02.520 run against Terrace, right So I mean, there's not a poll, 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:05.320 a focus group, or a strategist in the world that 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.760 told Donald Trump, Look, the way to finish this race 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:11.160 is saying that we're going to have military tribunals for 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:16.760 citizens in generals. That means, like we tested that it works. Great, 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:21.840 focus groups love it. Let me tell you he's out 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.480 there doing it. There's no focus group or a poll 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:25.920 in the world that told him to go out and 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:28.920 say you're the daddy of ava, which he did today. 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:29.440 Yeah. 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:34.680 That was crazy, Yeah, crazy and creepy. Yeah, he said 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:36.120 that before They're lost. 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.680 And you know, we now know the Chris Hasovita according 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:42.320 to Daily Beast, you know, making around twenty two million. 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:45.360 So I mean, you say to Chris, okay, Chris, you 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.400 could always threaten to quit if he doesn't do what 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:49.480 you say. What are the odds that's going to happen? 0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:52.040 Not very good? You know, it's an irony here that 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:56.360 Donald Trump disposedly great businessman is the biggest sucker for 0:14:56.520 --> 0:15:00.840 political consult Brad parcels Chris, they just up the truck 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:04.760 and he's like, okay, great. I think that there's a 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:08.880 closing argument that the Harris campaign has I've always thought 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:11.200 that they needed to do two things. I thought the 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.880 same for Biden. It transfers to Harris, they need to 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:17.560 be for the future. And I was ecstatic when Harris 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.880 hit on this don't go back thing. But in America 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:24.240 we are very hesitant to pass the church backwards. And 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:26.880 you know, it is true that no one's been elected 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:30.400 president's the seating a member of their own party who's older. 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:32.560 We just don't do that. We go to the younger. 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:34.600 And I think they have to be the safe choice. 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:36.920 Donald Trump has to be more risky. And I think 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:39.320 that they're prosecuting that argument. 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.120 And what do you say to people who are like 0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:44.520 freaking out, she's up one, and she's up two, she's 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:48.280 up three. That's not enough to win the electoral college. 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.560 What I was doing presidential campaign, someone would say, are 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:54.120 you worried about I would stop them there and say, yes, 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.280 whatever you're about to say, we're worried about it. That's 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:03.840 your job. But in this world that we live in now, 0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:07.080 he saw Hillary Clinton winning by three million, Biden won 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.520 by seven. I think she'll win by more. I just 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:13.680 don't see where the universe of voters available to Trump 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:18.240 is expanding. I am super confident that at the end 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:22.480 of the day, the Trump Black vote will be under 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:27.440 ten percent. Right, nineteen sixty four, gold Order got seven percent. 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:31.840 Twenty twenty Trump got eight that's one point every fifty years. 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:37.320 Don't think that's gonna really change, you know. I think 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:41.280 the last Biden got like maybe thirteen percent of black men. 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:43.160 As always talk about black men, but he got like 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:45.360 ninety six percent of black women. Trump will probably do 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:47.040 better with black men and black women, but it's going 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:48.920 to average out. So I think that's one of the 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.360 factors when you look at these polls and they're saying, well, 0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:54.040 she's getting eighty percent. I've seen this in so many 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:57.520 Republican polls. I mean all my life. I saw our 0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:01.479 candidate getting in states that had a signific black population, 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.560 good pollsters right up to election day. I can't tell 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:07.600 you how many times fifteen, sixteen, seventeen percent of the 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:09.760 black vote, but I can tell you how many times 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:14.600 it happened. Never, right, No, eight nine, that's what we're 0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:19.320 going to get. So there's usually a trend that younger 0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:22.399 voters tend to gravitate more to the Democratic Party at 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:26.919 the end as to Hispanics. So this is startling number 0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:30.359 that is out there now that for the first time 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:34.720 in modern history, Harris is on track to win white women, right. 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:37.600 I mean, I think Romney won them by seventeen points, 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:40.520 you know, which is again one of my pet little 0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:42.800 issues here we don't talk about race enough. I mean, 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:45.360 if I said to you Mitt, Romney won voters under 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:49.520 thirty against Obama, it's true if we're talking about white voters, 0:17:49.680 --> 0:17:53.160 Obama had a huge gender gap. With Romney. He won 0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:57.200 women by like sixteen points. Here you have they're white. Justice. 0:17:57.240 --> 0:17:59.640 Trump never won the working class if you consider working 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:02.440 class was to make under seventy five thousand dollars. Here 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:06.240 on whiteworp, Trump loses ninety percent of the evangelical vote 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:10.119 if they're black. There's something luck that's we have to 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:12.919 look at that enough and to talk about it, because 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:14.439 I think you can make a very good case that 0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:18.080 all of our politics is driven by race. Trump's coalition 0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:21.639 eighty five percent white, the country is fifty nine percent white. 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:24.879 That is a dynamic that if for the first time 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:29.639 a Democrat can win a majority of white women or 0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:33.520 white men, that would be extraordinary. And you know, there 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:36.680 was a looked like Hillary Clinton was going to win 0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:42.960 college educated Republican, which Goldwater won college educated republic You 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:46.040 know this, But then the COMI letter happened and he 0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:48.160 lost just enough problem to push Trump up. 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:51.720 And his closing message really is authoritarianism. 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:54.480 Yes, it's you know, he's daring people not to vote 0:18:54.520 --> 0:18:56.480 for him. It's you know, blaming the Jews. It is 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:58.360 going to be your fault if I lose. They don't 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:00.680 have any ground game at all. 0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:04.040 Right, well they have Elon living in Yeah. 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:05.680 The thing we're to start a superbact. We're going to 0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:08.119 put up a ground game. If Elon must volt that, 0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:10.680 it just you know, it shows he knows nothing. 0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:13.040 About in Pennsylvania. 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:15.399 Yeah. So I always ask myself, could Elon Must get 0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:17.399 elected governor of Pennsylvania. I don't think so. 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:19.240 I can't imagine. 0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:21.720 Yeah, there's not a long history of you know, South 0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:27.720 African weirdos getting you wretched. I think the trend here 0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:30.600 is what kept and theres been a trend. You have 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:34.640 to really look at this pre Biden dropout. So Trump 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:38.600 and polls say was three points up over Biden. Then 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:42.200 you go to Harris. Now Harris is anywhere from two 0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:45.760 to five points out. That's six or seven points different. 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:49.159 That is a massive shift in today's politics. We wouldn't 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:52.240 have seen anything like this since when Clinton was running 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:55.119 in third place in May of the ninety two and 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:57.960 ended up winning. So I don't know. I mean, I 0:19:58.480 --> 0:20:02.199 think the race is very stable. It is extraordinary that 0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:05.200 the Harris campaign hasn't had a disastrous day. I've always 0:20:05.200 --> 0:20:07.919 said it's impossible to get electric president without being humiliated 0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:10.520 is how you react to it. But so far they 0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:13.560 have avoided that. She's performed at a very high level. 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:17.320 I think there's a factor here that this campaign on 0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:20.200 the ground was built to elect Joe Biden. I think 0:20:20.240 --> 0:20:22.080 that they looked at this and they said, we're going 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:24.480 to have to have a really fantastic ground game to 0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:28.639 win it. So they overbuilt it, and Harris is inheriting that. 0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:31.760 So I don't know. I just don't know what aspect 0:20:31.840 --> 0:20:33.960 of the campaign you would point to and you would 0:20:33.960 --> 0:20:36.240 say Donald Trump is beating Harris. 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:41.159 Yeah, explained to our listeners why Donald Trump wants you 0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:43.159 to sing that he's winning. 0:20:43.600 --> 0:20:47.320 Oh well, that goes back to his whole you know, 0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:50.600 positive thinking, the art of positive thinking, to be able 0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:52.879 to sell people on that. The way that he would 0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:55.560 sell buildings. This is going to be the highest building 0:20:55.680 --> 0:20:57.760 or you know, the royals are going to live here. 0:20:57.840 --> 0:21:00.600 All these lives, He's always sold live It's always been 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:03.600 a lie. You know, he's the guy calling gossip. Colin 0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:05.760 has paid sixth cold. They're saying that, you know, Donald 0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:08.000