Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea and just a great set of conversations today.
Speaker 2: One of the high points, so Stephen Kim came in
Speaker 2: from Evercore ISI on the American housing market. It was
Speaker 2: really really informative, just as one of the moments today,
Speaker 2: very big equity day, if you will. We started strong
Speaker 2: with Stephen Oth. We've federated our mess. Stephen oth is
Speaker 2: just iconic decades of experience here and he does what
Speaker 2: the adults do. Not the next month, guests, the next
Speaker 2: year guess, but can they try to reach out to
Speaker 2: the might of the American economy to get to a
Speaker 2: two year view? Here off federated our mess.
Speaker 3: We've got a two year target of eighty six hundred.
Speaker 3: We've got seventy eight hundred for next year, and really
Speaker 3: driven by earnings growth. At this stage, we've got earnings
Speaker 3: at yeah, three ninety out three years and you know,
Speaker 3: stocks et nominal DDP growth, nominal GDP growth looks really
Speaker 3: good to us. You've got the AI revolution driving earnings,
Speaker 3: You've got enormous productivity. We've got GDP next year up
Speaker 3: three percent. I think the consensus is too We've been
Speaker 3: on the high side. All along, we've been more right
Speaker 3: than wrong on that. But you know, you've got a
Speaker 3: lot of stimulus coming next year that we think could
Speaker 3: get you a surprise on the upside.
Speaker 2: A lot of different opinions out there. It's outlookd time
Speaker 2: I make a joke about it. Sam Ro does a
Speaker 2: great job over at TK of looking at each and
Speaker 2: every outlook. I'm sure I'll have a summary at some point,
Speaker 2: but I got to admit the needles tilted towards a
Speaker 2: more optimistic assessment right now. We shall see. We spoke
Speaker 2: with Dean Kurrent. He is definitive in the derivative space.
Speaker 2: The dynamics of options and futures there leverage nature and
Speaker 2: all those Greek letters as well. Here dean current of
Speaker 2: macro Risk Advisors on the linkage of the standard impoores
Speaker 2: five hundred to the VIX.
Speaker 1: If we look at the SMP, its relationship with the
Speaker 1: VIX is as old as time. You know, you can
Speaker 1: go back to the late eighties, the nineties and so forth,
Speaker 1: and it's always stocks up vixed down. That correlation is
Speaker 1: around negative eighty percent, but for the stocks themselves, So
Speaker 1: when the SMP rises, the VIX falls, but for single stocks,
Speaker 1: and it's not just meme stocks like GameStop. It could
Speaker 1: be Google, it could be Broadcom. The stocks are rising
Speaker 1: and the market is assigning a higher implied volatility. It's
Speaker 1: a great question, and it really to me reflects a
Speaker 1: unique component, which is the stocks are options. In other words,
Speaker 1: when the stock rises, the potential that it rises much
Speaker 1: more actually goes up as well.
Speaker 2: Just a window in the dynamics of derivatives and the
Speaker 2: movements that you see and options. I have a role
Speaker 2: of an option being four times leveraged to the underlying stock.
Speaker 2: That's just a rough, rough role, but that's some of
Speaker 2: the game you can play with options. Dean Kurnat talking
Speaker 2: there about the advantages of hedging your guests instead of
Speaker 2: a pure play in options. On the podcast, we're on Apple,
Speaker 2: we're in Spotify, others as well, including YouTube podcasts. A
Speaker 2: single best idea